What's happened to this Wales poll? Has a sheep eaten it?
It's coming out tomorrow.
The sheep is coming out?
In the 21st century a sheep in Wales should be able to be strong and confident in its own identity. And that identity is 40% Conservative, 35% Labour, 12% Plaid.
There was something very, very strange about that death. Without going Full Tinfoil, that he is still ridiculed so many years on was the point somebody wanted to make....
There have been a fair few mysterious deaths that can be filed under sexgamegonewrong and a lot of them have one key thing in common.
According to the PB commentariat, May is a total muppet, who is losing millions of votes by the hour as the country warms to Mr. Corbyn.
It's a miracle Labour aren't already 10 points ahead of the Tories, given how dreadful May is.....
To get above a certain level Conservatives and UKIP voters from 2010 and 2015 have to directly switch to Labour, rather than Labour simply cleaning up all the Left-wing votes, all in response to Theresa seeming a bit flaky over the manifesto and its aftermath.
Possible, but I think not. Corbyn is following a noisy 35% strategy without realising it.
I've always thought much of the UKIP vote in the North wouldn't vote Tory if it came to it. That said, there comes a level of Tory support where however the non Tory vote is split doesn't make that much difference.
Looking at last time when the Tories nationally (GB) were just under 38%, the seat stratification was as follows
Tory vote over 50% 174 seats Won all Tory vote 45%-50% 78 seats Won all Tory vote 40%-45% 73 seats Won 61 Lost 12 Tory vote 35%-40% 34 seats Won 16 Tory vote 30-35% 62 seats Won 2 (Gower and Portsmouth) Tory vote below 30% 231 seats Won 0
The highest Tory vote share that lost was 44% in Wirral West. The highest Tory vote share anywhere was 65%.
If the Tory vote overall is up at least 5% on last time, then hard to see how they could lose their majority, regardless of how the opposition is split. If the Tories get to 45% in a constituency they'll win it, and there would seem to be 325 seats where that is fairly straightforward, unless there are mad regional swings going on.
Thanks also from me.
Extremely interesting and I'm surprised not to have seen any similar analysis up to now.
It's interesting how few seats Con had in the 35% to 40% range last time.
Con got 40% or more in 325 seats - precisely half the total number of seats in the UK. If Con vote share is up 5% that provides a very firm foundation for getting a majority.
But the lack of seats in the 35% to 40% range suggests it could be hard to get more than a small majority - albeit that 40% wins far more often than not.
What's happened to this Wales poll? Has a sheep eaten it?
It's coming out tomorrow.
The sheep is coming out?
In the 21st century a sheep in Wales should be able to be strong and confident in its own identity. And that identity is 40% Conservative, 35% Labour, 12% Plaid.
There was something very, very strange about that death. Without going Full Tinfoil, that he is still ridiculed so many years on was the point somebody wanted to make....
There have been a fair few mysterious deaths that can be filed under sexgamegonewrong and a lot of them have one key thing in common.
". When his body was discovered, he was dressed in a green protective suit for use in nuclear, biological or chemical warfare, green overalls, a black plastic mackintosh and thick rubber gloves. His face was covered by a gas mask and he was also wearing a sou'wester. His body was suspended from two ropes, attached to shackles fastened to a piece of wood across the open loft hatch, and was surrounded by pictures of men and mainly black women in bondage. Consultant pathologist Dr Yasai Sivathondan said he died from asphyxia due to hanging "in keeping with a form of sexual strangulation"."
What's happened to this Wales poll? Has a sheep eaten it?
It's coming out tomorrow.
The sheep is coming out?
In the 21st century a sheep in Wales should be able to be strong and confident in its own identity. And that identity is 40% Conservative, 35% Labour, 12% Plaid.
An uncharacteristically woolly answer from you.
Just thank your lucky stars I avoided the "baa-curious" joke I nearly made.
What's happened to this Wales poll? Has a sheep eaten it?
It's coming out tomorrow.
The sheep is coming out?
In the 21st century a sheep in Wales should be able to be strong and confident in its own identity. And that identity is 40% Conservative, 35% Labour, 12% Plaid.
Russell Brand: '(Corbyn) ... a politician who is committed to serving the people of Britain.'
Orly?
He's forgotten, then, that this 'politician' is a committed friend of many murderers of the people of Britain. Warrington hasn't forgotten. Hendon hasn't forgotten. To name just a few. Please God some others remember before D-Day (sic).
I wonder if we will get an extension on Article 50. It requires unanimity from the EU27, but it's clear we are not going to be anywhere near ready by March 2019 and it probably is in the EU's interest to delay to ensure a more orderly disengagement. They can keep us on a short leash and probably extract lots of cash. If not win/win then no_lose/no_lose.
No, because under Article 50 that'd require the consent of the UK as well.
Obviously it's not in our interests to crash out of the EU unprepared. Two years is an unrealistically short period of time to sort things out even if we had a government that was focused on the task in hand and had been level with the British people about what Brexit involves.
There'll be an initial 'talks about talks' agreement with some transitional arrangements covered off and then a longer negotiation, beyond the two years. Why do you think Mrs May suddenly realised she needed more time?
I'm not convinced even now the Brexit process has been properly thought through, so she probably doesn't realise it. It's not just the Article 50 deal, although that's the most important one. We have a vast array of international arrangements and obligations through the EU that will lapse on our exit. Those are up to us to sort out and won't be done through the Article 50 process. We need time. Above all we need time to get people on board for the massive compromises that entail from Brexit.
Alas I suspect the residents of Sidmouth and Budleigh Salterton (so famous as a retirement destination it was once mentioned on Blackadder I think) are probably not on Twitter.
What's happened to this Wales poll? Has a sheep eaten it?
It's coming out tomorrow.
The sheep is coming out?
In the 21st century a sheep in Wales should be able to be strong and confident in its own identity. And that identity is 40% Conservative, 35% Labour, 12% Plaid.
An uncharacteristically woolly answer from you.
Just thank your lucky stars I avoided the "baa-curious" joke I nearly made.
Apols if already posted, but Jim Messina is rubbishing YouGov for 'another stupid poll' and has publicly challenged YouGov’s general manger Ben Leet to a wager.
". When his body was discovered, he was dressed in a green protective suit for use in nuclear, biological or chemical warfare, green overalls, a black plastic mackintosh and thick rubber gloves. His face was covered by a gas mask and he was also wearing a sou'wester. His body was suspended from two ropes, attached to shackles fastened to a piece of wood across the open loft hatch, and was surrounded by pictures of men and mainly black women in bondage. Consultant pathologist Dr Yasai Sivathondan said he died from asphyxia due to hanging "in keeping with a form of sexual strangulation"."
right.
Maybe I am odd, but it is the sou'wester that strikes me as peculiar.
Alas I suspect the residents of Sidmouth and Budleigh Salterton (so famous as a retirement destination it was once mentioned on Blackadder I think) are probably not on Twitter.
I'm on the last night of a very enjoyable break in Sidmouth. If the number of posters were a reliable guide, she's a shoe-in. As it happens, they're not.
@daraobriain: Ah, she can't do the debate because she's sitting in having a big think about Brexit. This is excruciating to watch. twitter.com/bbcnews/status/869908350019829760
A very poor line. Should have just said that they had agreed to do the two head-to-heads, and that they had taken Corbyn at his word that he would abstain from the 7-ways.
Alas I suspect the residents of Sidmouth and Budleigh Salterton (so famous as a retirement destination it was once mentioned on Blackadder I think) are probably not on Twitter.
I'm on the last night of a very enjoyable break in Sidmouth. If the number of posters were a reliable guide, she's a shoe-in. As it happens, they're not.
Gove whilst being intellectually up to the job of Prime Minister doesn't have the necessary presence.
By that I mean he makes John Major look like a Spartan.
The meme of him weirdly clapping that came out during the leadership election (before he wielded the knife on Boris) drew howls of derisory laughter from my usually apolitical work colleagues. He would have been destroyed within a month.
Compare electionforecast with YouGov for Richmond Park, Twickenham, and Kingston.
electionforecast has Tory probability of winning at 100%, 93% and 98% respectively.
YouGov has Tossup, likely LibDem and leans LibDem respectively which is line with the bookies.
I wouldn't say that electionforecast is MILES more realistic than YouGov.
Looking at several dozen random examples in YouGov I think their estimated (wide) spreads cover the likely outcome very well unlike election forecast which is too black and white (and often plain wrong).
I thought the line earlier was that she was going to be talking to real voters.
Let's be honest. She's similar in style to Gordon Brown but definitely his intellectual and political inferior. The only reason Theresa May deserves to be Prime Minister is that she isn't Jeremy Corbyn.
Fucking hell, she has been living off the phrase 'Brexit means Brexit' for the past 9 months.
Alas I suspect the residents of Sidmouth and Budleigh Salterton (so famous as a retirement destination it was once mentioned on Blackadder I think) are probably not on Twitter.
I'm on the last night of a very enjoyable break in Sidmouth. If the number of posters were a reliable guide, she's a shoe-in. As it happens, they're not.
Twitter and PB, whilst brilliant for all manner of political opinions, ideas and memes, are not a bit representative of ordinary Britain.
On PB, for instance, where most posters know 1000 x as much about politics as the ordinary voter, hardly anybody thought Cameron would win a majority in 2015 (notable exceptions, ie: JackW) and only a tiny handful believed Brexit would happen (Southam and Casino Royale were just about the only two who believed it all along...).
In the real world, I doubt many are noticing how shite May is or how many IRA balaclavas Corbyn reputedly has. I do suspect that most minds were made up pre the campaign, and although the polls have tightened somewhat, the Tories are still on for a much bigger majority.
On the subject of opinion polls, can we please all remember they are in effect experimental as all existing models had been proven useless in 2015. Some of them may be right, it is not out of the question that all of them are again totally wrong (obviously they cannot all be right).
However, this feels more like 2005 when Blair leaked his private polling claiming it showed Labour and the Tories neck and neck because he thought apathy would cost him maybe a couple of dozen seats, than 1979 when several polls put Callaghan ahead, or even 1983 when the gap appeared to close a few times.
It is boring, unwanted election between a dull candidate and a certifiable lunatic with a plausible manner. In the absence of plausible alternatives it's not surprising he's hoovering up the idiot vote. That's why the vote share may be OK for Labour. But he's not Donald Trump and he's not going to win. Apart from anything else, most of his own policies are less effective and relevant than his opponents'.
Gove whilst being intellectually up to the job of Prime Minister doesn't have the necessary presence.
By that I mean he makes John Major look like a Spartan.
The meme of him weirdly clapping that came out during the leadership election (before he wielded the knife on Boris) drew howls of derisory laughter from my usually apolitical work colleagues. He would have been destroyed within a month.
I never fancied Gove as a leader. He's a top quality ideas man, way too gawky for popularity and the Boris take-down (although on balance, the right thing to do) wrecked any leadership hopes he had. I do think he's a fab Number 2 though. Radical, original, brave and, by all accounts, fairly collegiate.
He is also very articulate and has a fantastic, rich vocabulary. One thing I've noticed about May is how stunted her vocabulary is. She repeats herself terribly. I actually feel a bit sorry for her. Her lack of ease with words the way a Cameron or Blair could do it, must encourage her to resort to soundbites and repetition.
I think it was Churchill who coined the 'glare of the hot probing eye'. During campaigns politicians have an enormous amount of cameras and lights thrust in front of them. Some wilt, some flourish.
May, sadly for her, has wilted.
But her leadership isn't unrecoverable. If she wins a big majority negatives will be swiftly swept under the carpet.
Is there any criticism of the poll that rises above the level of "spent the day laughing at yet another stupid poll by YouGov" and so on?
It would be interesting to know why people are so convinced the model is wrong, and where they think the errors have been made.
There are two things: the poll and the model. I'm sceptical about the poll but I'm glad they're putting out there what they think the score is at the moment. I haven't looked at the model, but I'm not backing seats off the back of their predictions (see previous posts on which seats look plain wrong).
Gove whilst being intellectually up to the job of Prime Minister doesn't have the necessary presence.
By that I mean he makes John Major look like a Spartan.
The meme of him weirdly clapping that came out during the leadership election (before he wielded the knife on Boris) drew howls of derisory laughter from my usually apolitical work colleagues. He would have been destroyed within a month.
Sadly I think you are correct,
Intellectually Gove has the capacity to manage the government, Brexit included, more successfully than any other 'top' Politian in any of the party's at the moment, sadly he is not a leader especially in today world of memes.
perhaps my opinion of Gove, is comparable to how Ed Milibands supporters looked at him?
Is there any criticism of the poll that rises above the level of "spent the day laughing at yet another stupid poll by YouGov" and so on?
It would be interesting to know why people are so convinced the model is wrong, and where they think the errors have been made.
Whilst YouGov produced this analysis, they also produced polls with the Tories 6% ahead.
All the supplementaries point to a comfortable Tory win.
That's only a 2 point difference in the Tory lead, i.e. a 1 point different in each party's percentage. Surely that's a tiny difference. But anyway, what is there to indicate 6% is right and 4% is wrong?
Maybe your argument about supplementaries is right, but isn't it risky discounting direct evidence on the basis of indirect evidence?
Gove whilst being intellectually up to the job of Prime Minister doesn't have the necessary presence.
By that I mean he makes John Major look like a Spartan.
The meme of him weirdly clapping that came out during the leadership election (before he wielded the knife on Boris) drew howls of derisory laughter from my usually apolitical work colleagues. He would have been destroyed within a month.
Sadly I think you are correct,
Intellectually Gove has the capacity to manage the government, Brexit included, more successfully than any other 'top' Politian in any of the party's at the moment, sadly he is not a leader especially in today world of memes.
perhaps my opinion of Gove, is comparable to how Ed Milibands supporters looked at him?
If the Tories win i would give him a top brief straight away, he would be a good person to reform the NHS or the home office.
Obviously a Presidential election is very different from a parliamentary election, but is that the only reason French pollsters were so good? Or were they doing something very different, like expensive and massive face-to-face polls?
Gove whilst being intellectually up to the job of Prime Minister doesn't have the necessary presence.
By that I mean he makes John Major look like a Spartan.
The meme of him weirdly clapping that came out during the leadership election (before he wielded the knife on Boris) drew howls of derisory laughter from my usually apolitical work colleagues. He would have been destroyed within a month.
Sadly I think you are correct,
Intellectually Gove has the capacity to manage the government, Brexit included, more successfully than any other 'top' Politian in any of the party's at the moment, sadly he is not a leader especially in today world of memes.
Your opinion of Gove's intellect seems strangely congruent with his opinion of himself.
Obviously a Presidential election is very different from a parliamentary election, but is that the only reason French pollsters were so good? Or were they doing something very different, like expensive and massive face-to-face polls?
Alas I suspect the residents of Sidmouth and Budleigh Salterton (so famous as a retirement destination it was once mentioned on Blackadder I think) are probably not on Twitter.
I'm on the last night of a very enjoyable break in Sidmouth. If the number of posters were a reliable guide, she's a shoe-in. As it happens, they're not.
Alas I suspect the residents of Sidmouth and Budleigh Salterton (so famous as a retirement destination it was once mentioned on Blackadder I think) are probably not on Twitter.
I'm on the last night of a very enjoyable break in Sidmouth. If the number of posters were a reliable guide, she's a shoe-in. As it happens, they're not.
It is a great part of the world.. the only mainland natural World Heritage site and not heaving with tourists.
Back on the subject I also see the Claire is last on the ballot behind two other random independents which doesn't help matters, nor does the presence of LibDem and Labour candidates. I think both were absent when she smashed the Tories in the locals a few weeks ago.
Gove whilst being intellectually up to the job of Prime Minister doesn't have the necessary presence.
By that I mean he makes John Major look like a Spartan.
The meme of him weirdly clapping that came out during the leadership election (before he wielded the knife on Boris) drew howls of derisory laughter from my usually apolitical work colleagues. He would have been destroyed within a month.
Sadly I think you are correct,
Intellectually Gove has the capacity to manage the government, Brexit included, more successfully than any other 'top' Politian in any of the party's at the moment, sadly he is not a leader especially in today world of memes.
Your opinion of Gove's intellect seems strangely congruent with his opinion of himself.
It was congruent with defeating the massed ranks of the establishment over Brexit.
You might not like him. But don't allow your prejudices to blind you to a cunningly capable and clever individual.
Obviously a Presidential election is very different from a parliamentary election, but is that the only reason French pollsters were so good? Or were they doing something very different, like expensive and massive face-to-face polls?
Their exit polls were spot on, their final polls not quite so much
Amusingly had 2 flyers today at home (live in Kingston & Surbiton) from LibDem and Labour claiming a vote for the other is wasted as only they can beat the Tories. Both had bar charts, with the Labour one being based on the 1st prefs in the 2016 Mayoral election!
I like the idea of what YouGov have tried to do. I'm yet to be convinced by the execution of it.
Me too.
This has great potential.
Having a massive polling panel with detailed demographic / socioeconomic info on your panel - then figuring out which voters are changing their minds (and where they live) is the future of FPTP election polling.
By 2027, they'll be predicting the result to within a dozen or so seats.
The data will be used by campaigns to increasingly focus their campaign effort on smaller and smaller numbers of crucial swing voters they've personally identified.
I never fancied Gove as a leader. He's a top quality ideas man, way too gawky for popularity and the Boris take-down (although on balance, the right thing to do) wrecked any leadership hopes he had. I do think he's a fab Number 2 though. Radical, original, brave and, by all accounts, fairly collegiate.
You have that backwards. People with imagination and drive are the best leaders - as long as they have talented administrators under them to implement those ideas.
Gove is indeed a genius at coming up with bold and radical ideas that look excellent on paper, but he couldn't administer a local charity. Therefore he would make a dreadful number two.
Incidentally your last sentence is also incorrect- he's very much a loner and likes to be on the minority side picking a fight. It's one reason why his school reforms went so horribly wrong. If he'd worked with teachers they could have been very effective rather than utterly disastrous. That probably rules him out as PM anyway. And even Liam Fox has allegedly expressed reservations about his foreign policy stance!
I never fancied Gove as a leader. He's a top quality ideas man, way too gawky for popularity and the Boris take-down (although on balance, the right thing to do) wrecked any leadership hopes he had. I do think he's a fab Number 2 though. Radical, original, brave and, by all accounts, fairly collegiate.
You have that backwards. People with imagination and drive are the best leaders - as long as they have talented administrators under them to implement those ideas.
Gove is indeed a genius at coming up with bold and radical ideas that look excellent on paper, but he couldn't administer a local charity. Therefore he would make a dreadful number two.
Incidentally your last sentence is also incorrect - he's very much a loner and likes to be on the minority side picking a fight. That's why he was pro-Brexit even though his personal position appears much more nuanced. It's also the reason why his school reforms went so horribly wrong. If he'd worked with teachers they could have been very effective rather than utterly disastrous. That probably rules him out as PM anyway. And even Liam Fox has allegedly expressed reservations about his foreign policy stance!
I like the idea of what YouGov have tried to do. I'm yet to be convinced by the execution of it.
Me too.
This has great potential.
Having a massive polling panel with detailed demographic / socioeconomic info on your panel - then figuring out which voters are changing their minds (and where they live) is the future of FPTP election polling.
By 2027, they'll be predicting the result to within a dozen or so seats.
Only with the proviso that you verify the personal data you have about your panel.
Comments
Hmmmmmm.......
Extremely interesting and I'm surprised not to have seen any similar analysis up to now.
It's interesting how few seats Con had in the 35% to 40% range last time.
Con got 40% or more in 325 seats - precisely half the total number of seats in the UK. If Con vote share is up 5% that provides a very firm foundation for getting a majority.
But the lack of seats in the 35% to 40% range suggests it could be hard to get more than a small majority - albeit that 40% wins far more often than not.
But West Indian mums love their kids more
". When his body was discovered, he was dressed in a green protective suit for use in nuclear, biological or chemical warfare, green overalls, a black plastic mackintosh and thick rubber gloves. His face was covered by a gas mask and he was also wearing a sou'wester. His body was suspended from two ropes, attached to shackles fastened to a piece of wood across the open loft hatch, and was surrounded by pictures of men and mainly black women in bondage. Consultant pathologist Dr Yasai Sivathondan said he died from asphyxia due to hanging "in keeping with a form of sexual strangulation"."
right.
Orly?
He's forgotten, then, that this 'politician' is a committed friend of many murderers of the people of Britain. Warrington hasn't forgotten. Hendon hasn't forgotten. To name just a few. Please God some others remember before D-Day (sic).
Because if it is good for Con it is going to complete contradict the YouGov UK model.
Utterly absurd.
Several utterly contradictory polls are published -- and then after the event, the best one can be picked to show how close you were.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/battle-pollsters-jim-messina-blasts-yougov-another-stupid-poll/
Instead of paying me £500 on June 9th, I'll take £300 now.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/869952276198195200
She told me to get offline, grab the velcro gloves and wellies and join her in the bedroom.
A Tory candidate with over ten years Commons experience
Kensington only 'leaning' Conservative. LMAO.
By that I mean he makes John Major look like a Spartan.
The meme of him weirdly clapping that came out during the leadership election (before he wielded the knife on Boris) drew howls of derisory laughter from my usually apolitical work colleagues. He would have been destroyed within a month.
It can be improved in future elections.
‘We deserve to lose,’ says another Tory candidate
If you're explaining, you're losing?
electionforecast has Tory probability of winning at 100%, 93% and 98% respectively.
YouGov has Tossup, likely LibDem and leans LibDem respectively which is line with the bookies.
I wouldn't say that electionforecast is MILES more realistic than YouGov.
Looking at several dozen random examples in YouGov I think their estimated (wide) spreads cover the likely outcome very well unlike election forecast which is too black and white (and often plain wrong).
Fucking hell, she has been living off the phrase 'Brexit means Brexit' for the past 9 months.
On PB, for instance, where most posters know 1000 x as much about politics as the ordinary voter, hardly anybody thought Cameron would win a majority in 2015 (notable exceptions, ie: JackW) and only a tiny handful believed Brexit would happen (Southam and Casino Royale were just about the only two who believed it all along...).
In the real world, I doubt many are noticing how shite May is or how many IRA balaclavas Corbyn reputedly has. I do suspect that most minds were made up pre the campaign, and although the polls have tightened somewhat, the Tories are still on for a much bigger majority.
It would be interesting to know why people are so convinced the model is wrong, and where they think the errors have been made.
All the supplementaries point to a comfortable Tory win.
However, this feels more like 2005 when Blair leaked his private polling claiming it showed Labour and the Tories neck and neck because he thought apathy would cost him maybe a couple of dozen seats, than 1979 when several polls put Callaghan ahead, or even 1983 when the gap appeared to close a few times.
It is boring, unwanted election between a dull candidate and a certifiable lunatic with a plausible manner. In the absence of plausible alternatives it's not surprising he's hoovering up the idiot vote. That's why the vote share may be OK for Labour. But he's not Donald Trump and he's not going to win. Apart from anything else, most of his own policies are less effective and relevant than his opponents'.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676413/jeremy-corbyn-armed-cops-pull-guns-on-moped-robbers/amp/
He is also very articulate and has a fantastic, rich vocabulary. One thing I've noticed about May is how stunted her vocabulary is. She repeats herself terribly. I actually feel a bit sorry for her. Her lack of ease with words the way a Cameron or Blair could do it, must encourage her to resort to soundbites and repetition.
I think it was Churchill who coined the 'glare of the hot probing eye'. During campaigns politicians have an enormous amount of cameras and lights thrust in front of them. Some wilt, some flourish.
May, sadly for her, has wilted.
But her leadership isn't unrecoverable. If she wins a big majority negatives will be swiftly swept under the carpet.
Intellectually Gove has the capacity to manage the government, Brexit included, more successfully than any other 'top' Politian in any of the party's at the moment, sadly he is not a leader especially in today world of memes.
perhaps my opinion of Gove, is comparable to how Ed Milibands supporters looked at him?
Maybe your argument about supplementaries is right, but isn't it risky discounting direct evidence on the basis of indirect evidence?
Just kidding.
Labour within 4% in Warwick & Leamington
Pudsey (Toss up)
High Peak (Toss up)
Stevenage Lab 2% behind
Hastings Lab 3% ahead
Thurrock Lab 1% behind
Labour will be further behind on all of those.
Back on the subject I also see the Claire is last on the ballot behind two other random independents which doesn't help matters, nor does the presence of LibDem and Labour candidates. I think both were absent when she smashed the Tories in the locals a few weeks ago.
You might not like him. But don't allow your prejudices to blind you to a cunningly capable and clever individual.
A 42% margin?
https://twitter.com/mrjamesmack/status/869934951831134208
No contact from canvassers, which is a bit odd
This has great potential.
Having a massive polling panel with detailed demographic / socioeconomic info on your panel - then figuring out which voters are changing their minds (and where they live) is the future of FPTP election polling.
By 2027, they'll be predicting the result to within a dozen or so seats.
The data will be used by campaigns to increasingly focus their campaign effort on smaller and smaller numbers of crucial swing voters they've personally identified.
According to Oddschecker, 38% of bets are on the LibDems.
Gove is indeed a genius at coming up with bold and radical ideas that look excellent on paper, but he couldn't administer a local charity. Therefore he would make a dreadful number two.
Incidentally your last sentence is also incorrect- he's very much a loner and likes to be on the minority side picking a fight. It's one reason why his school reforms went so horribly wrong. If he'd worked with teachers they could have been very effective rather than utterly disastrous. That probably rules him out as PM anyway. And even Liam Fox has allegedly expressed reservations about his foreign policy stance!
The criticism of the YouGov model is the fact that it is a 'model'.
Nuf said.
Gove is indeed a genius at coming up with bold and radical ideas that look excellent on paper, but he couldn't administer a local charity. Therefore he would make a dreadful number two.
Incidentally your last sentence is also incorrect - he's very much a loner and likes to be on the minority side picking a fight. That's why he was pro-Brexit even though his personal position appears much more nuanced. It's also the reason why his school reforms went so horribly wrong. If he'd worked with teachers they could have been very effective rather than utterly disastrous. That probably rules him out as PM anyway. And even Liam Fox has allegedly expressed reservations about his foreign policy stance!