Apparently the UKIP vote is splitting 33-33-33 Con/Lab/UKIP in my constituency according to Yougov. Colour me sceptical based on my wanders round town.
It's only MOE, as was ICM. In reality, both polls show the Tory lead as stabilising. MOE movements aren't really something to pay attention to.
The whole election campaign is MOE. 95% of people decided if and how they were going to vote the moment the election was called, even if they don't admit it to themselves.
The manifestos, debates, policy blunders, etc. are just props for a massive exercise in choice-supportive bias by the electorate. All the polls are doing is trying to strip away the lies we tell ourselves about how open-minded we are and figure out what it is we've already decided.
WillS.
In the 2010 election there was a giant Lib Dem surge, which failed to materialise. Labour did better than expected.
In the 2015 election the polls were all stubbornly neck-and-neck. The Conservatives did much better than expected.
2015-2017 has been some of the most unpredictable politics, worldwide, I can remember. But the polls *all* show Tory leads, the lowest at 3%, with the economy and leadership fundamentals still favouring the Government.
I expect the Conservatives to do ok. But I would personally spend the next week ripping Labour's numbers and economics to utter shreds.
It's almost too late. You can't conjure a campaign out of nothing in the final week. The Tories have no plan, no grid, no announcements, nothing. It is quite bizarre.
And Theresa May called this election at a time of her choosing. She could have had it all set up, secretly, while Labour squabbled. She had the advantage of surprise!
It's almost too late. You can't conjure a campaign out of nothing in the final week. The Tories have no plan, no grid, no announcements, nothing. It is quite bizarre.
And Theresa May called this election at a time of her choosing. She could have had it all set up, secretly, while Labour squabbled. She had the advantage of surprise!
When May called the election I thought that there must have been a team secretly working on a campaign for quite a long while, and that they had done a great job of keeping it secret. I don't think that now, it looks to me that it came out of the blue for the party. Hence the manifesto, dismal campaigning, and failure to challenge Labour.
The Tory campaign has amounted to do doing nothing and ceding the news agenda to Corbyn and Labour. They have been invisible in this campaign. Corbyn is front and centre and it seems the more people see of him the more they like him.
This Tory campaign is going to go down through the ages as an example of how to throw away a 25% lead.
There are three Independents standing - presumably they think one of these will win?
Claire Wright was second last time as an Indy and it's just possible she'll do one better. I've had a small flutter which I expect to lose, but am not giving up hope on. She's a genuine local independent who hits the sweet spot between attracting Labour, Lib Dems and Greens who want the MP out, without being at all off-putting to soft Tories. She'll be within 10%.
Only if the 12.5% UKIP got 2015 goes to her. She has already plundered the Labour and LibDems vote. Personally, I don't think it will be remotely close....
She can also pick up soft Tories. The Tories no longer have the line with their waverers who aren't Swire fans and quite like the woman that, although she's all very nice, it will let socialists and their liberal lapdogs in. She proved in 2015 it wasn't a wasted vote, and that she's the only other show in town. I think she'll be within 10%.
Canterbury is an interesting one. Looks close-ish on the Yougov model. There's a uni there. Labour 25/1 on BetfairSB.
When does term end?
Canterbury????
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
Libs maintain their position, Tories maintain their position, greens lose 2% points to labour, UKIP loose 10% points to labour? Even with a bunch of hidden churn that just looks plain wrong.
Reality check : Is Copeland honestly likely to head back Labour after being won in a BY-ELECTION ?
That's very plausible IMO. The evidence is that Copeland was won by the Conservatives at the by-election because Labour voters stayed at home in protest rather than due mostly to switchers. If they decide Labour is worth a vote after all i the constituency could revert.
If the stuff on here were remotely right then yes, that would definitely happen. However, it is unlikely. Labour taking Copeland back is more likely that LDs holding Westmorland.
Does anyone have a list of Theresa May's constituency visits day by day over the campaign? Surely that would be illustrative of what CCO think the actual state of play is (especially when compared to Cameron's day-by-day visits last time round).
Anecdote time: I was at a swanky central London restaurant yesterday (very nice, since you ask). On the table next to us was a group of four men, professionals of some sort, probably in their thirties, enjoying the tasting menu with accompanying flight of wines (£135 a head plus service etc). They were talking about the election, and it was quite revealing. None intended to vote Tory, as far as I could tell. One was being urged by the others to vote Labour; he was thinking of doing so, but was a bit worried about his £750K mortgage. Still, he thought he was being a bit selfish to take that into account.
The lack of even the most vague understanding of what a Corbyn premiership would do to their jobs, taxes, house values, and mortgage costs was absolutely extraordinary; it was an utter disconnect with reality. I fear that Mr £750K mortgage will find out about reality the very hard way if YouGov are right. And these are people who not only must have a hell of a lot to lose, but who, you would have thought, would have a vague understanding of the world.
People voted for Brexit, Richard. Some very wealthy, supposedly intelligent people would like to see a Brexit with no deal.
"People voted for her because of what they thought she was like rather than what she is like. It’s totally shattered the confidence of the parliamentary party." (Tory candidate, 2015 MP)
Libs maintain their position, Tories maintain their position, greens lose 2% points to labour, UKIP loose 10% points to labour? Even with a bunch of hidden churn that just looks plain wrong.
They must be expecting UKIP votes to go Conservative, and Conservative votes to go Labour.
The Green vote elsewhere in Scotland having to vote SNP because the Green's aren't standing will be confusing YouGov's modelling I would guess. Interesting to see the cross-over between SNP and Scot Green voters however.
Canterbury is an interesting one. Looks close-ish on the Yougov model. There's a uni there. Labour 25/1 on BetfairSB.
When does term end?
Canterbury????
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
I know this seat well and the chances of Labour winning here are zero. It didn't go Labour at peak Blair.
"People voted for her because of what they thought she was like rather than what she is like. It’s totally shattered the confidence of the parliamentary party." (Tory candidate, 2015 MP)
An aggressively invisible non-entity who triangulated blatantly during the EU referendum?
I get absolutely no satisfaction in being proven right on Theresa May being crap.
She's trashing the party and handing 2022 on a plate to Labour.
How can she hand 2022 on a plate to Labour? If she wins this time she is probably PM for another 5 years and all number of events could take place in the meantime while Corbyn will probably be leading Labour in 5 years time too. Plus since when was 43% which Kantar also has the Tories on 'trashing the party'? It would be the highest Tory voteshare for 38 years
Canterbury is an interesting one. Looks close-ish on the Yougov model. There's a uni there. Labour 25/1 on BetfairSB.
When does term end?
Canterbury????
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
I know this seat well and the chances of Labour winning here are zero. It didn't go Labour at peak Blair.
Playing devils advocate, the demographics of the Labour surge are very different to the Blair years though. Blair didn't win on the back of the kiddy vote.
They need to stop. Bragging about MOE poll movements on a tracker.
YouGov seem to be in the process of trashing their reputation for some reason?
We all said the same about the LATimes tracker...
The LATimes tracker was wrong. Trump did not win the popular vote, he lost it by a mile.
Jesus Christ. I have now had about six people correct me on this. I have apologised and conceded the point, already. The LA Times was wrong but it was NOT AS WRONG AS ME.
They need to stop. Bragging about MOE poll movements on a tracker.
YouGov seem to be in the process of trashing their reputation for some reason?
We all said the same about the LATimes tracker...
The LATimes tracker was wrong. Trump did not win the popular vote, he lost it by a mile.
Jesus Christ. I have now had about six people correct me on this. I have apologised and conceded the point, already. The LA Times was wrong but it was NOT AS WRONG AS ME.
The LA Times could do with a rebranding after that debacle....
Rather than look at the opinion polls, Mike should just install a program at the top of each each header that generates random numbers within certain ranges for each party, the first person on the thread gets to press the "randomize" button, then we discuss the results
Canterbury is an interesting one. Looks close-ish on the Yougov model. There's a uni there. Labour 25/1 on BetfairSB.
When does term end?
Canterbury????
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
I know this seat well and the chances of Labour winning here are zero. It didn't go Labour at peak Blair.
Playing devils advocate, the demographics of the Labour surge are very different to the Blair years though. Blair didn't win on the back of the kiddy vote.
Kent the my original home country and I don't see Labour winning there, either. I simply flagged the huge disparity between BF Labour 25/1 and YG only leaning Tory.
But no, Corbyn in office would be embarrassing. He's done well during the campaign because it's his comfort zone. He likes campaigning he's experienced at it; a few repeated slogans go a long way. But think back to his time as parliamentary leader and multiply it several fold for the effect of being PM rather than LotO and you have some idea of what it'd be like.
Disagree, as you'd expect of me. The bulk of the PLP don't dislike Jeremy, they just thought he'd lose and put their seats at risk. If he wins, they'll suspend disbelief, with a few well-known exceptions. No doubt mid-term would be bloody as usual, but for the first year he'd be fine.
A point which I've not seen made is that May has called the election at precisely the mid-term point where governments are normally unpopular. She thought the "firm mandate for Brexit" line would swing it, but then proved less than obviously firm on other matters.
I'm not going to disagree on the proficiency of the Tory campaign. However, we only need to look to Corbyn as LotO in parliament to imagine what he'd be like as PM. He's bad enough as PMQs when he has the advantage of initiative. Imagine what he'd be like if he had to answer the questions: it'd be Woman's Hour on repeat with a genuinely hostile atmosphere.
Were he to win, he'd no doubt get a honeymoon over the summer, while parliament isn't sitting and before the Brexit talks start in earnest (which given the UK's GE, now can't really happen until after the German election). I'd expect a Corbyn-led government to be trailing by Christmas and mining depths not explored even under Gordon Brown by mid-term.
They need to stop. Bragging about MOE poll movements on a tracker.
YouGov seem to be in the process of trashing their reputation for some reason?
We all said the same about the LATimes tracker...
But they were wrong, Clinton won the popular vote.
LA Times/USC Trump +3.5% Reality Trump -2.1%
Difference: 5.6
They even wrote a post election article trying to defend it's accuracy saying it was just as good as a poll showing Clinton leading by 4!
The popular vote is irrelevant in US politics but, the most accurate was ironically Rasmussen which had Clinton +2%. The most accurate state pollster was Trafalgar Group which had Trump leading Michigan and Florida on its final polls
It's only MOE, as was ICM. In reality, both polls show the Tory lead as stabilising. MOE movements aren't really something to pay attention to.
The whole election campaign is MOE. 95% of people decided if and how they were going to vote the moment the election was called, even if they don't admit it to themselves.
The manifestos, debates, policy blunders, etc. are just props for a massive exercise in choice-supportive bias by the electorate. All the polls are doing is trying to strip away the lies we tell ourselves about how open-minded we are and figure out what it is we've already decided.
WillS.
I expect the Conservatives to do ok. But I would personally spend the next week ripping Labour's numbers and economics to utter shreds.
It's almost too late. You can't conjure a campaign out of nothing in the final week. The Tories have no plan, no grid, no announcements, nothing. It is quite bizarre.
And Theresa May called this election at a time of her choosing. She could have had it all set up, secretly, while Labour squabbled. She had the advantage of surprise!
What a cluster of fucks is here.
She talks to so few people that her own side were just as surprised as everyone else. Indeed her sudden change of mind probably surprised herself.
The trouble is she can't flex her style.
That's probably appropriate for the poker style negotiations, but not for the manifesto.
Not within a year of being installed, and after winning an election. Her honeymoon ended the day of the manifesto launch, and the clock began ticking on her career.
Just about every Conservative leader I can think of going back to say 1964 has had people saying the leader would not last, it was the end of their honeymoon etc...etc. Thatcher had people saying this before 1979, up until the falklands war and then again in 1987.
No doubt when the fabled "last minute swing" kicks in next week, you will change your tune. Then when she wins pretty convincingly to very convincingly you will be metaphorically kissing her arse again!
Rather than look at the opinion polls, Mike should just install a program at the top of each each header that generates random numbers within certain ranges for each party, the first person on the thread gets to press the "randomize" button, then we discuss the results
I suggested ERNIE from the Premium Bonds earlier. He was the original 1957 random number generator.
Seriously though 3% and 12% cannot both be right (within about 48 hours of each other).
The Green vote elsewhere in Scotland having to vote SNP because the Green's aren't standing will be confusing YouGov's modelling I would guess. Interesting to see the cross-over between SNP and Scot Green voters however.
I have seen several Green posters in windows here in Edinburgh. I wonder if the people putting them up realise there isn't a Green candidate to vote for in their consituencies.
Were he to win, he'd no doubt get a honeymoon over the summer, while parliament isn't sitting and before the Brexit talks start in earnest (which given the UK's GE, now can't really happen until after the German election). I'd expect a Corbyn-led government to be trailing by Christmas and mining depths not explored even under Gordon Brown by mid-term.
You can say exactly the same of May.
If she isn't turfed by the backbenchers for the GE fiasco first
They need to stop. Bragging about MOE poll movements on a tracker.
YouGov seem to be in the process of trashing their reputation for some reason?
We all said the same about the LATimes tracker...
The LATimes tracker was wrong. Trump did not win the popular vote, he lost it by a mile.
Jesus Christ. I have now had about six people correct me on this. I have apologised and conceded the point, already. The LA Times was wrong but it was NOT AS WRONG AS ME.
The LA Times could do with a rebranding after that debacle....
I get absolutely no satisfaction in being proven right on Theresa May being crap.
She's trashing the party and handing 2022 on a plate to Labour.
Michael Gove probably should have become leader last year, keeping Osborne as Foreign Secretary to soothe the sores, and making Rudd, or Hammond, Chancellor. But he couldn't help acting like a Lannister.
I don't know what he'd have done with May. Now probably isn't the right time to ask that question.
But no, Corbyn in office would be embarrassing. He's done well during the campaign because it's his comfort zone. He likes campaigning he's experienced at it; a few repeated slogans go a long way. But think back to his time as parliamentary leader and multiply it several fold for the effect of being PM rather than LotO and you have some idea of what it'd be like.
Disagree, as you'd expect of me. The bulk of the PLP don't dislike Jeremy, they just thought he'd lose and put their seats at risk. If he wins, they'll suspend disbelief, with a few well-known exceptions. No doubt mid-term would be bloody as usual, but for the first year he'd be fine.
A point which I've not seen made is that May has called the election at precisely the mid-term point where governments are normally unpopular. She thought the "firm mandate for Brexit" line would swing it, but then proved less than obviously firm on other matters.
I'm not going to disagree on the proficiency of the Tory campaign. However, we only need to look to Corbyn as LotO in parliament to imagine what he'd be like as PM. He's bad enough as PMQs when he has the advantage of initiative. Imagine what he'd be like if he had to answer the questions: it'd be Woman's Hour on repeat with a genuinely hostile atmosphere.
Were he to win, he'd no doubt get a honeymoon over the summer, while parliament isn't sitting and before the Brexit talks start in earnest (which given the UK's GE, now can't really happen until after the German election). I'd expect a Corbyn-led government to be trailing by Christmas and mining depths not explored even under Gordon Brown by mid-term.
If he became PM, the LotO should just ask
"Why did you support the IRA over Britain?" 6 times every week
YouGov: 3pt Survation: 6pt Kantar: 10pt FT poll of polls: 9pt ICM: 12pt ComRes: 12pt Panelbase: 15pt"
They can't win, can they? If they were close together they'd be accused of herding!
They can win. If they were fairly close together and reasonably accurate, that would be a win for the polling industry. Being widely spread means many of them will be miles out, and the one that's right (if any) will be the proverbial stopped clock.
Are there enough humble pies on order for the betwetters for 9th June aka Teresa's grand slam landslide Friday ?
The bedwetters will have to hang about to explain why Theresa is so crap and calling the election was a pyrric victory which will destroy her and the party in short order. Not to mention that the manifesto cost her 100 seats and the campaign was a disaster (apart from winning) and Corby's was a model of how to campaign (apart from losing). And after such a blundering balls up she is incapable of negotiating Brexit.
You are aware he is a holocaust-denier and an antisemite? I suspect those might have contributed to his receiving a ban. They say Gary Glitter was a decent singer.
Canterbury is an interesting one. Looks close-ish on the Yougov model. There's a uni there. Labour 25/1 on BetfairSB.
When does term end?
Canterbury????
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
I know this seat well and the chances of Labour winning here are zero. It didn't go Labour at peak Blair.
Playing devils advocate, the demographics of the Labour surge are very different to the Blair years though. Blair didn't win on the back of the kiddy vote.
Kent the my original home country and I don't see Labour winning there, either. I simply flagged the huge disparity between BF Labour 25/1 and YG only leaning Tory.
It doesn't give me much confidence in their model.
You are aware he is a holocaust-denier and an antisemite? I suspect those might have contributed to his receiving a ban. They say Gary Glitter was a decent singer.
He was a pretty good pundit, and had interesting and quirky knowledge on historical aspects of Liverpool, but the holocaust denial and fascist imagery kept returning every time he was unbanned.
Labour are not going to retake Presell Pembrokeshire on the youth surge.
You just need a random number generator to make these predictions.
Here is the huge caveat for Wales.
At the moment, the forecast is very pessimistic about Plaid Cymru's chances of holding on to the seats it won in the 2015 General Election. This doesn't match predictions based on uniform national swing, which would see Plaid fall back, but not by so much that they would lose seats.
We suspect this results from a limitation of the data we have. We have information on far fewer Welsh respondents to wave 10 of the BES, and Plaid Cymru supporters are a small proportion of those respondents. Consequently, it's difficult to tell whether strong Plaid support in one region is the result of genuine support or sampling error. We suspect we will under-estimate Plaid's support absent better (=more abundant) data.
SO according to the YouGov constituency thingy Ceredigion is likely to be Liberal Democrats with the possibilty that the Tories could end up in second place - B*******
SO according to the YouGov constituency thingy Ceredigion is likely to be Liberal Democrats with the possibilty that the Tories could end up in second place - B*******
Some of those YouGov seat estimates are very wide. For example, Watford:
Con - 35-49% Lab - 30-47% LD - 8-20%
This methodology that YouGov have adopted is real Marmite isn't it? It's either a massive stroke of genius or complete bollocks. Whoever is championing this inside of YouGov has got to be feeling rather queasy at the moment.
Have they actually published data tables? I'l love to see the movement they are seeing between each days sample.
Not within a year of being installed, and after winning an election. Her honeymoon ended the day of the manifesto launch, and the clock began ticking on her career.
Just about every Conservative leader I can think of going back to say 1964 has had people saying the leader would not last, it was the end of their honeymoon etc...etc. Thatcher had people saying this before 1979, up until the falklands war and then again in 1987.
No doubt when the fabled "last minute swing" kicks in next week, you will change your tune. Then when she wins pretty convincingly to very convincingly you will be metaphorically kissing her arse again!
Taxman I really hope you are right, there is a lot of us PB tories getting the jitters here, need to see swingback NOW
Canterbury is an interesting one. Looks close-ish on the Yougov model. There's a uni there. Labour 25/1 on BetfairSB.
When does term end?
Canterbury????
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
I know this seat well and the chances of Labour winning here are zero. It didn't go Labour at peak Blair.
Playing devils advocate, the demographics of the Labour surge are very different to the Blair years though. Blair didn't win on the back of the kiddy vote.
I'm not convinced about the 'kiddy' vote turning out for Corbyn.
Labour are not going to retake Presell Pembrokeshire on the youth surge.
You just need a random number generator to make these predictions.
Here is the huge caveat for Wales.
At the moment, the forecast is very pessimistic about Plaid Cymru's chances of holding on to the seats it won in the 2015 General Election. This doesn't match predictions based on uniform national swing, which would see Plaid fall back, but not by so much that they would lose seats.
We suspect this results from a limitation of the data we have. We have information on far fewer Welsh respondents to wave 10 of the BES, and Plaid Cymru supporters are a small proportion of those respondents. Consequently, it's difficult to tell whether strong Plaid support in one region is the result of genuine support or sampling error. We suspect we will under-estimate Plaid's support absent better (=more abundant) data.
That's what comes of sending all their polling questions out in English
It's only MOE, as was ICM. In reality, both polls show the Tory lead as stabilising. MOE movements aren't really something to pay attention to.
The whole election campaign is MOE. 95% of people decided if and how they were going to vote the moment the election was called, even if they don't admit it to themselves.
The manifestos, debates, policy blunders, etc. are just props for a massive exercise in choice-supportive bias by the electorate. All the polls are doing is trying to strip away the lies we tell ourselves about how open-minded we are and figure out what it is we've already decided.
WillS.
In the 2010 election there was a giant Lib Dem surge, which failed to materialise. Labour did better than expected.
In the 2015 election the polls were all stubbornly neck-and-neck. The Conservatives did much better than expected.
2015-2017 has been some of the most unpredictable politics, worldwide, I can remember. But the polls *all* show Tory leads, the lowest at 3%, with the economy and leadership fundamentals still favouring the Government.
I expect the Conservatives to do ok. But I would personally spend the next week ripping Labour's numbers and economics to utter shreds.
It's almost too late. You can't conjure a campaign out of nothing in the final week. The Tories have no plan, no grid, no announcements, nothing. It is quite bizarre.
And Theresa May called this election at a time of her choosing. She could have had it all set up, secretly, while Labour squabbled. She had the advantage of surprise!
What a cluster of fucks is here.
Except the Tories are 10% ahead.
As long as Theresa May gets an increased majority it doesn't really matter this or the next election. Brexit will decide the next election.
You are aware he is a holocaust-denier and an antisemite? I suspect those might have contributed to his receiving a ban. They say Gary Glitter was a decent singer.
Yeah, I know. I don't care.
He makes us a lot of money.
Substitute "makes" for "loses" and you two could be talking about the next PM
Are there enough humble pies on order for the betwetters for 9th June aka Teresa's grand slam landslide Friday ?
None will be required. The bedwetters will have been "with her from the start they always knew she would win and held their nerve throughout. Is Bray in the PM's constituency? It's Vicar has some competition!
Canterbury is an interesting one. Looks close-ish on the Yougov model. There's a uni there. Labour 25/1 on BetfairSB.
When does term end?
Canterbury????
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
I know this seat well and the chances of Labour winning here are zero. It didn't go Labour at peak Blair.
Playing devils advocate, the demographics of the Labour surge are very different to the Blair years though. Blair didn't win on the back of the kiddy vote.
If the Tory leadership race hadn't been cut short and May had actually had to campaign, Andrea Leadsom could have been PM all this time...
I think we had ample evidence from the five minutes that Leadsom was a semi-serious leadership contender that May is, at worst, only the second crappest campaigner in the Tory Party.
Comments
I wonder if they've come to a conclusion as to who is going to win the Copeland byelection yet ?
This Tory campaign is going to go down through the ages as an example of how to throw away a 25% lead.
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
Satsuma, Russell?
I'd probably vote Pirate right now if they were standing here (even with the silly copyright policy they have).
In all seriousness, someone really should start the Patrick Party.
And Osborne, wandering out of the Commons. He'd be PM in waiting right now if he'd stayed. What a mistake to make!
He could do a Lord Home.
Even if she wins, unless she wins big, Theresa May is going to be loathed by many of her MPs. Not great.
TBH, isn't that the fate of every Conservative leader.
UK poll industry in CRISIS
Tory leads:
YouGov: 3pt
Survation: 6pt
Kantar: 10pt
FT poll of polls: 9pt
ICM: 12pt
ComRes: 12pt
Panelbase: 15pt"
Mr. Eagles, I fear your desires are overwhelming your reason.
Mr. T, not Boris. He isn't fit to be Foreign Secretary, let alone PM.
I'd go for Gove. He, at least, has a brain in his head.
Mr. P, that's a bit like me predicting Hamilton will be top 6 in the next race. Probably true, but not exactly heroic.
"Let's keep remembering that the polls were wrong last time (although the Electoral Calculus model was correct)."
Baxter also opines: Con Maj 88.
Reality Trump -2.1%
Difference: 5.6
They even wrote a post election article trying to defend it's accuracy saying it was just as good as a poll showing Clinton leading by 4!
@hhesterm: @rafaelbehr @IanDunt @faisalislam @mrjamesob we'll walk away is a common phrase of negotiators.Might not be very effective here because of consequences, but that's not the point
@hhesterm: @rafaelbehr @IanDunt @faisalislam @mrjamesob Industry HAS to assume and plan for no deal within 2y b/c of "no deal is better than bad deal". That threat is self-defeating and bad for UK
@anandMenon1: @IanDunt @hhesterm @rafaelbehr @faisalislam @mrjamesob The most effective threat she could brandish at this point, I reckon, is not that we'll walk but that we'll stay.
Labour are not going to retake Presell Pembrokeshire on the youth surge.
You just need a random number generator to make these predictions.
Were he to win, he'd no doubt get a honeymoon over the summer, while parliament isn't sitting and before the Brexit talks start in earnest (which given the UK's GE, now can't really happen until after the German election). I'd expect a Corbyn-led government to be trailing by Christmas and mining depths not explored even under Gordon Brown by mid-term.
That's probably appropriate for the poker style negotiations, but not for the manifesto.
Not within a year of being installed, and after winning an election. Her honeymoon ended the day of the manifesto launch, and the clock began ticking on her career.
Just about every Conservative leader I can think of going back to say 1964 has had people saying the leader would not last, it was the end of their honeymoon etc...etc. Thatcher had people saying this before 1979, up until the falklands war and then again in 1987.
No doubt when the fabled "last minute swing" kicks in next week, you will change your tune. Then when she wins pretty convincingly to very convincingly you will be metaphorically kissing her arse again!
Seriously though 3% and 12% cannot both be right (within about 48 hours of each other).
If she isn't turfed by the backbenchers for the GE fiasco first
I don't know what he'd have done with May. Now probably isn't the right time to ask that question.
"Why did you support the IRA over Britain?" 6 times every week
He makes us a lot of money.
At the moment, the forecast is very pessimistic about Plaid Cymru's chances of holding on to the seats it won in the 2015 General Election. This doesn't match predictions based on uniform national swing, which would see Plaid fall back, but not by so much that they would lose seats.
We suspect this results from a limitation of the data we have. We have information on far fewer Welsh respondents to wave 10 of the BES, and Plaid Cymru supporters are a small proportion of those respondents. Consequently, it's difficult to tell whether strong Plaid support in one region is the result of genuine support or sampling error. We suspect we will under-estimate Plaid's support absent better (=more abundant) data.
Have they actually published data tables? I'l love to see the movement they are seeing between each days sample.
WillS.
No doubt when the fabled "last minute swing" kicks in next week, you will change your tune. Then when she wins pretty convincingly to very convincingly you will be metaphorically kissing her arse again!
Taxman
I really hope you are right, there is a lot of us PB tories getting the jitters here, need to see swingback NOW