I'm beginning to think that Corbyn could win this election as much as I don't want to believe it. This would be the biggest disaster this country has faced since World War II and I don't think that's being pessimistic. My only hope is that when they get to the ballot box next week the British people have good sense to keep Jeremy Corbyn away from the levers of power. This country is at a crossroads which will affect our children and grandchildren and I fear in Corbyn we are about to take a wrong turn which will be an unmitigated disaster for the UK . There has been a marked change in public perception since the tory manifesto launch and opinion seems to be shifting towards Corbyn, the momentum is with him at the moment although the polls and all the underlying statistics would suggest he is definitely going to lose this could turn out to be another polling disaster where the underdog comes through from the outside and takes pole position. doesn't bear thinking about what the consequences of him winning would be but hey Ho what can we do about it if he does. The Tories do not seem to be challenging his manifesto, his record, his past, and his own MPs support for him. it feels like the Tory campaign is frozen and unresponsive and unprepared Lord help us all
I agree with that.
As for challenging Corbyn why the hell the Tories aren't making a bigger deal of Corbyn's parliamentary problems is beyond me. "If his own MPs don't support him, why should you?"
On balance I far prefer Corbyn to May. She's a humourless and cold automaton.
Both are to a great extent accidental leaders, him due to Margaret Beckett and others nominating him, her due to the chaos after the EU ref.
FFS though, his manifesto is no more left-wing than Harold Wilson's manifestos were. He won four elections, kept us out of a foreign war (Vietnam) and kept the Labour party together over Europe.
John Smith had he lived would have won in 1997 on a right-wing Old Labour manifesto. Still though to the left of Thatcher and Sons.
There's nothing in Corby's manifesto that would frighten Ted Heath, though Ted would baulk at the draconian trade union laws that Corby wants to keep.
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
It's been almost painful. All the magic that surrounded Theresa when she called the election has been obliterated. The entire exercise has succeeded only in making Jezza look a bit of a star.
The weird thing about Jezza is that he's box office. People just like him and, even if they hate him, like talking about him. He's a bit like KP coming to the crease – the fanboys and the haters had widely different opinions of him but everyone was glued to the action.
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
Corbyn has better personal ratings now? Really? Wow - that's an enormous change in public opinion.
Not sure what NP is referring to but the Independent on Sunday reported May still led Corbyn by 22 points in net approval
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
It is nevertheless very hard to canvass anyone aged under 30. Canvassing is a sample biased heavily towards older people, in an election where the age-differences in voting intention have never been greater.
I think Derby North could be a Lab Gain
One of the smallest Tory majorities in the country could be a Lab gain.... doesn't sound all that promising.
No its not
TMICIPM 70 majority would be my guess
Shouldn't that be TICIPM?
Same thing!!!
EMWNBPM
Ah, but the old chestnut was EICIPM.
Nice to be remembered for something even if a complete clusterfuck!!
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
Plenty of furious Cons remainers but not sure if they would bring themselves to vote for Jezza.
Senior cabinet minister in Labour marginal. Their internal polling cant be that bad?
We Cons are grinning from ear to ear.
You guys are going to win despite how crap your leader is. Desperate times for this nation.
Indeed. A one-eyed landslide in the kingdom of the blind.
Exactly. In politics as in boxing you don't have to be good, you just have to be better than the other guy. The fact that Mrs May is our Nicola Adams is icing on the cake.
That's truly pathetic. FFS get someone in for the Tories who knows what they are doing.
She's too busy thinking about Brexit to appear in an election debate?
She's leaving herself open to being mocked as an indecisive neurotic who spends every minute of the day and night worrying about the negotiations.
I'd rather hope the PM would spend (nearly) every minute worrying about Brexit - apart from national security there is nothing else a bigger worry.....
I actually think the news narrative has been better for Con over the last week.
- First Manchester got security onto the agenda - Dementia tax has largely faded into background - Sunday Abbott car crash Marr interview - Monday Corbyn generally did OK with Paxman but terrible on Falklands and Monarchy may have worried some - Tuesday Corbyn not knowing numbers on Womans Hour dominated all news - Today Lab won't even try to control immigration
In contrast there hasn't been much specific to remember from May.
Apart from Manchester, a common factor here is that the news is about Corbyn and Labour, every day. Sometimes it's good, sometimes it's bad, but we can't complain that we're not getting attention - which, excuse the comparison, is what won the US election for Trump.
By contrast, as you say, we struggle to remember any theme pressed by the Tory campaigners in recent days. If you're PM and leading an election campaign, if the most positive thing is that people can't remember anything you've said, it's not very encouraging.
"The first two polls of this campaign showed clear Conservative party leads in Wales, and indicated that the Tories were on course for an historic electoral breakthrough."
..before going on to show how Labour had overtaken the Tories. The use of that "historic" word again would suggest to me that the Tories are back on top in Wales .... or they've collapsed entirely.
May says she won't debate because she is focussing on Brexit.
If you were focussing on Brexit, Mrs My, you wouldn't have called an unneccessary General Election!
That's a cynically duplicitous comment. She saw full well that her majority now is not enough to push a strong negotiation. The forces of Brexit frustration are today just about powerful enough to wreck it. I think she was right to seek to remove that before the hard work starts. What she is clearly hopeless at is the retail side of politics.
What aspect of BREXIT has the Commons failed to pass? The Prime Minister should be reminded that parliament isn't there to make her position easier at the negotiating table.
When she has a deal it will need to be approved. The wreckers will then complain about a 'take it or leave it' vote and start pushing for endless edits - essentially undermining the negotiation. And then the lords will, without a manifesto commitment, start playing their games. She needs two things: 1. Brexit solidly in a manifesto; and 2. A majority to pass the 'take it or leave it' vote or to support 'just walk'. Or we may see the establishment successfully frustrate the referendum vote.
You seem to think that the Commons is simply a rubber stamp for the executive. Surely one of the campaign narratives of Brexiteers was that our parliament should be sovereign.
#Breaking.... 5 times Theresa May was asked to rule out more cuts to our Police. 5 times she refused
You say that as though it's a bad thing.
I think it is
I think less Police Army Border Force Etc is bad for security
I think her avoiding answering the question is a good thing
For Lab
Oh, quite possibly. But Theresa May, to give her her due (which someone needs to, given that this site has flipped from absurd over-praise of her to absurd over-criticism of her), is trying to place herself in a position where she can govern well, without being hidebound by pledges which might not be sensible. I appreciate that, for a Labour supporter, that's a novel, indeed alien, concept, but then Labour's not even pretending to want to be a responsible party of government.
That's truly pathetic. FFS get someone in for the Tories who knows what they are doing.
She's too busy thinking about Brexit to appear in an election debate?
She's leaving herself open to being mocked as an indecisive neurotic who spends every minute of the day and night worrying about the negotiations.
I'd rather hope the PM would spend (nearly) every minute worrying about Brexit - apart from national security there is nothing else a bigger worry.....
Pretty stupid to call a GE then that must have distracted her somewhat
That's truly pathetic. FFS get someone in for the Tories who knows what they are doing.
She's too busy thinking about Brexit to appear in an election debate?
She's leaving herself open to being mocked as an indecisive neurotic who spends every minute of the day and night worrying about the negotiations.
I'd rather hope the PM would spend (nearly) every minute worrying about Brexit - apart from national security there is nothing else a bigger worry.....
Except getting a huge majority in the GE was meant to be a central part of her Brexit strategy. So if she is really focussed on Brexit then she should be focussed on winning the GE. Or maybe she shouldn't have wasted 2 months of everyone's time with this election campaign.
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
Corbyn has better personal ratings now? Really? Wow - that's an enormous change in public opinion.
Not sure what NP is referring to but the Independent on Sunday reported May still led Corbyn by 22 points in net approval
Yougov have her leading him by 34% in terms of net approval.
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
Hmm, you're quoting Scottish ratings there...... but you won't get any argument from me on Theresa May.
I've gone from being mildly impressed, and eagerly cheering her on, to alternately pulling out my hair in frustration and mooning her with derision (metaphorically)
She's obviously bad at campaigning, and as for social interaction, she looks like she is on the autistic spectrum to me, or has some personality disorder (I don't mean that unkindly, it's what I genuinely think). Zero sense of humour, zero ability to think on her feet, a gawky, ungainly nervousness, an aversion to anything spontaneous, and a mind-numbing inarticulacy.
All that would - perhaps - be tolerable, if she had brilliant political skills and judgement, sufficient to the task of Brexit. Dementia Tax and WFA-gate suggests the opposite; it also suggests the Juncker judgement of her, at the dinner, was spot on. She's parochial, myopic, and unbending in a bad way. She surrounds herself with a tiny team of idiots.
In retrospect her coronation by the Tories was a profoundly bad decision. She needed to be exposed, so that we could see all this.
So the choice is down to a British version of Trump versus Hillary, except that Corbyn is even more dangerous and extreme than Trump, and May is even more inept and boring than Hillary.
Fab.
The last person to lead the Tories with a similar disdain for the public was Ted Heath, but I don't think anyone doubted his intellect or vision.
He only won 1 of his 4 elections though, and that by a whisker.
"The first two polls of this campaign showed clear Conservative party leads in Wales, and indicated that the Tories were on course for an historic electoral breakthrough."
..before going on to show how Labour had overtaken the Tories. The use of that "historic" word again would suggest to me that the Tories are back on top in Wales .... or they've collapsed entirely.
WillS.
Prob more likely zero Libs, which is I would assume a first since they were Whigs. Bit of an uptick for Plaid and Ceredigion goes.
That's truly pathetic. FFS get someone in for the Tories who knows what they are doing.
It is utterly shite. Labour are coming up with some crisp, funny, memorable lines - James Oliver/Oliver Twist, the Lady's Not For Turning Up, etc
The Tories huff and push and huff, like a highly constipated weasel, and then they produce a tiny little turdlet, like this. It's not only dull and offputting it implies Jeremy Corbyn will likely be the next prime minister.
As for the "swapping soundbites" press release, OMFG.
The Tory campaign, already the worst in the history of the visible universe, threatens to get even worse than that, something that will actually contravene the laws of physics.
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
as for social interaction, she looks like she is on the autistic spectrum to me, or has some personality disorder (I don't mean that unkindly, it's what I genuinely think). Zero sense of humour, zero ability to think on her feet, a gawky, ungainly nervousness, an aversion to anything spontaneous, and a mind-numbing inarticulacy.
The reports from the Paxman interview were that May interacted with the audience during the commercial break, while Corbyn conferred with Milne, and after the session May went up to the audience to thank them while Corbyn scurried off.....
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
Corbyn has better personal ratings now? Really? Wow - that's an enormous change in public opinion.
IN SCOTLAND
Ah... that makes a lot more sense. Labour doing better in Scotland is probably bad news since it won't win them seats and suggests they aren't doing so well in England.
I'm off out in a sec but re debate. Don't you think her non participation is already priced in? She said from the start she won't do it, the electorate know that.
To a degree. But the narrative of the campaign when she decided not to go was one of dominant, strong and stable PM refuses to waste her time with pygmies. Now it's one of invisible woman, embarrassed by her dementia tax u-turn, hiding from an electorate she hates having to deal with. It plays into the negative vibe.
If she had a bit of steel, she'd turn up at the last moment.
Another u-turn?
Corbyn also changed his mind on this, and she could easily make a virtue of it in her opening statement.
"As I said I would, I have been up and down the country, talking to real voters. Many of them have been shocked when I've told them about Labour budgets that blatantly don't add up and would saddle our children with debt for decades, about SNP promises broken in power in Holyrood, and about Lib Dem proposals to turn a blind eye to the drug problems in our cities. They've asked me to do all I can to expose the dishonesty and hypocrisy of other parties to a wider audience, and to put the positive Conservative case for a stronger economy, improved schools and hospitals, and a Brexit that works for Britain. It's because of those conversations with real voters that I'm here, debating with people who've spent their time avoiding the electorate and the real issues. It's the public's priorities and concerns I look forward to talking to you about tonight."
That's truly pathetic. FFS get someone in for the Tories who knows what they are doing.
She's too busy thinking about Brexit to appear in an election debate?
She's leaving herself open to being mocked as an indecisive neurotic who spends every minute of the day and night worrying about the negotiations.
I'd rather hope the PM would spend (nearly) every minute worrying about Brexit - apart from national security there is nothing else a bigger worry.....
If she doesn'r rapidly pull her finger out of her arse she won't need to worry about it for much longer...she'll be basking in the glory of pipping IDS as worst Tory leader ever from the backbenches.
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
Corbyn has better personal ratings now? Really? Wow - that's an enormous change in public opinion.
Not sure what NP is referring to but the Independent on Sunday reported May still led Corbyn by 22 points in net approval
Yougov have her leading him by 34% in terms of net approval.
What would the voters know? The experts on here know better - and display remarkable knowledge and penetrating insight for someone they've never met....
According to the PB commentariat, May is a total muppet, who is losing millions of votes by the hour as the country warms to Mr. Corbyn.
She's beating the worst Labour leader ever in an election called when the political Gods couldn't be smiling on her any more favourably. And not doing it very well. That said ...what a relief.
I actually think the news narrative has been better for Con over the last week.
- First Manchester got security onto the agenda - Dementia tax has largely faded into background - Sunday Abbott car crash Marr interview - Monday Corbyn generally did OK with Paxman but terrible on Falklands and Monarchy may have worried some - Tuesday Corbyn not knowing numbers on Womans Hour dominated all news - Today Lab won't even try to control immigration
In contrast there hasn't been much specific to remember from May.
Apart from Manchester, a common factor here is that the news is about Corbyn and Labour, every day. Sometimes it's good, sometimes it's bad, but we can't complain that we're not getting attention - which, excuse the comparison, is what won the US election for Trump.
By contrast, as you say, we struggle to remember any theme pressed by the Tory campaigners in recent days. If you're PM and leading an election campaign, if the most positive thing is that people can't remember anything you've said, it's not very encouraging.
"Vote Tory, it's a mandate for whatever."
This is so true. The Tory campaign is shite, as most PB Tories seem to agree.
But let's not bother Theresa May. She's too busy "thinking about Brexit" to debate against Labour. A classic case of underestimating the electorate.
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
Agreed. One of the biggest surprises of this campaign is just how good Jezza has been in the spotlight. A very impressive campaigner, and very likeable, whether you agree with him or not. I must admitted that I vastly underrated his abilities, having paid no attention to the Labour leadership contest.
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
Plenty of furious Cons remainers but not sure if they would bring themselves to vote for Jezza.
Where? Not here in the Northern marginals where it matters. Actually not many remainers come to that. I can honestly say the only comments I've had on Brexit on the doorstep is doubts that she will take us out. I feel there's lingering suspicion we'll be dragged back in. Other than that we're hoovering up UKIP votes.
"The first two polls of this campaign showed clear Conservative party leads in Wales, and indicated that the Tories were on course for an historic electoral breakthrough."
..before going on to show how Labour had overtaken the Tories. The use of that "historic" word again would suggest to me that the Tories are back on top in Wales .... or they've collapsed entirely.
This site has become pure lunancy with all the anti May stuff. She is 10 points clear in this poll. At the last election Cameron was only level in the polls and won by 7.
I think we've reached the point where the polls will go up or down a bit for each side, but people have now pretty much made up their minds.
I'm not sure.
I reckon that (as usual) there will be quite a lot of people telling the pollsters they are going to vote Jezza who either won't show up on the day or will vote Con in the privacy of the polling booth - Enough to have Con 2% higher and Lab 2% lower than whatever the final polls show...
"The first two polls of this campaign showed clear Conservative party leads in Wales, and indicated that the Tories were on course for an historic electoral breakthrough."
..before going on to show how Labour had overtaken the Tories. The use of that "historic" word again would suggest to me that the Tories are back on top in Wales .... or they've collapsed entirely.
WillS.
Maybe its a LibDem surge?
Every party to have a surge in at least one welsh poll - will it be Plaid or the Lib Dems turn this time ?
Diarrhea, also spelled diarrhoea, is the condition of having at least three loose or liquid bowel movements each day. It often lasts for a few days and can result in dehydration due to fluid loss. Diarrhea - Wikipedia
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
Agreed. One of the biggest surprises of this campaign is just how good Jezza has been in the spotlight. A very impressive campaigner, and very likeable, whether you agree with him or not. I must admitted that I vastly underrated his abilities, having paid no attention to the Labour leadership contest.
I have a feeling the Welsh poll will also be a good one. I am also hoping that his trip to Glasgow will also have helped. Labour was at 19% about a month back. Tories were at 30%.
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
Diarrhea, also spelled diarrhoea, is the condition of having at least three loose or liquid bowel movements each day. It often lasts for a few days and can result in dehydration due to fluid loss. Diarrhea - Wikipedia
I think SeanT has three loose bowel movements each day on PB !
I think we've reached the point where the polls will go up or down a bit for each side, but people have now pretty much made up their minds.
I'm not sure.
I reckon that (as usual) there will be quite a lot of people telling the pollsters they are going to vote Jezza who either won't show up on the day or will vote Con in the privacy of the polling booth - Enough to have Con 2% higher and Lab 2% lower than whatever the final polls show...
That's in line with Sean_F's point, though. He's just saying that we're broadly at the stage in the campaign where it would take big news to change minds markedly. Whether the methodology of the polls is such that they still consistently underestimate shy Tories is a rather different matter.
The point is that the likelihood is that Corbyn's Labour has had its surge (and it has been a surge - the TNS numbers wouldn't have drawn a sigh of Tory relief three weeks ago), and they're still well short with few undecided people left.
Personally, I tend to agree with that. We are at the stage when, in any campaign, there are many fewer people on the doorstep saying "I haven't really thought" or "the wife and I were just discussing it over dinner, funnily enough". There's more "yes" and more "no" to "will you be supporting us?". The canvassing is very much identify and solidify now.
That LD range of 3-17 seats is interesting. What do they do if they lose seats at the GE? They might as well throw the towel in. It would be an utter, utter failure.
What a surprise a good Tory poll! But an hour ago it was the worst campaign ever and Corbyn was standing on the steps of Downing Street. Some posters indeed need to stop being frit about everything - that's Theresa May's job
Anecdote time: I was at a swanky central London restaurant yesterday (very nice, since you ask). On the table next to us was a group of four men, professionals of some sort, probably in their thirties, enjoying the tasting menu with accompanying flight of wines (£135 a head plus service etc). They were talking about the election, and it was quite revealing. None intended to vote Tory, as far as I could tell. One was being urged by the others to vote Labour; he was thinking of doing so, but was a bit worried about his £750K mortgage. Still, he thought he was being a bit selfish to take that into account.
The lack of even the most vague understanding of what a Corbyn premiership would do to their jobs, taxes, house values, and mortgage costs was absolutely extraordinary; it was an utter disconnect with reality. I fear that Mr £750K mortgage will find out about reality the very hard way if YouGov are right. And these are people who not only must have a hell of a lot to lose, but who, you would have thought, would have a vague understanding of the world.
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
Agreed. One of the biggest surprises of this campaign is just how good Jezza has been in the spotlight. A very impressive campaigner, and very likeable, whether you agree with him or not. I must admitted that I vastly underrated his abilities, having paid no attention to the Labour leadership contest.
I have a feeling the Welsh poll will also be a good one. I am also hoping that his trip to Glasgow will also have helped. Labour was at 19% about a month back. Tories were at 30%.
In London, I think, Labour will gain seats.
but how would Labour winning Wales constitute an historic night?
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
In England, Corbyn continues to trail May overall by a big number (even though it has narrowed) and among the elderly the margin is huge. That is clearly a drag on Labour. The over 50s remember the 70s and 80s in way that younger generations clearly will not. Corbyn has fought a fine campaign (others around him less so) and has definitely taught moderates an important lesson about not worrying about the right wing press and being positive, but this is a government that can and should have been defeated.
That's truly pathetic. FFS get someone in for the Tories who knows what they are doing.
It is utterly shite. Labour are coming up with some crisp, funny, memorable lines - James Oliver/Oliver Twist, the Lady's Not For Turning Up, etc
The Tories huff and push and huff, like a highly constipated weasel, and then they produce a tiny little turdlet, like this. It's not only dull and offputting it implies Jeremy Corbyn will likely be the next prime minister.
As for the "swapping soundbites" press release, OMFG.
The Tory campaign, already the worst in the history of the visible universe, threatens to get even worse than that, something that will actually contravene the laws of physics.
Wasn't Carlotta her tutorial partner or something ? Can we find out if she has form in 'the college cat ate my essay' type excuses...
They need to stop. Bragging about MOE poll movements on a tracker.
Prepare for a whole new meltdown when the Lady Who Is Not For Turning Up memes overnight and it's cut to 2pts*
*The Tories will still win easily but boy this is entertaining. The Labourites on here are largely chipper even though they are, to a man (and woman), certain Labour will lose. A PB Tory put it well – Labour people are always more chipper even when behind, because they vote with their hearts and not with their heads. Some truth in that.
Comments
I think less Police Army Border Force Etc is bad for security
I think her avoiding answering the question is a good thing
For Lab
TMICIPM lets hope its 2/2 clusterfucks
By contrast, as you say, we struggle to remember any theme pressed by the Tory campaigners in recent days. If you're PM and leading an election campaign, if the most positive thing is that people can't remember anything you've said, it's not very encouraging.
"Vote Tory, it's a mandate for whatever."
So be it.
He only won 1 of his 4 elections though, and that by a whisker.
Labour doing better in Scotland is probably bad news since it won't win them seats and suggests they aren't doing so well in England.
"As I said I would, I have been up and down the country, talking to real voters. Many of them have been shocked when I've told them about Labour budgets that blatantly don't add up and would saddle our children with debt for decades, about SNP promises broken in power in Holyrood, and about Lib Dem proposals to turn a blind eye to the drug problems in our cities. They've asked me to do all I can to expose the dishonesty and hypocrisy of other parties to a wider audience, and to put the positive Conservative case for a stronger economy, improved schools and hospitals, and a Brexit that works for Britain. It's because of those conversations with real voters that I'm here, debating with people who've spent their time avoiding the electorate and the real issues. It's the public's priorities and concerns I look forward to talking to you about tonight."
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (+1)
LAB: 33% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
UKIP: 4% (-)
GRN: 3% (-1)
(via @TNS_UK / 25 - 30 May)
SWINGBACK BABY!
Lovely weather shrinking Tory leads and a bit of rain for the Garden.
8hrs 20 mins to the end of May
According to the PB commentariat, May is a total muppet, who is losing millions of votes by the hour as the country warms to Mr. Corbyn.
Press & Journal......Salmond on manoeuvres?
TMICIPM 70 Majority
The Tories deserve to lose though - they are mean, twisted and ugly just like their supporters!
So the first day was entirely pre Manchester.
Result: Tory Majority of 12
Today the Tories remain steadily ahead of Labour and May outpolls Corbyn by a huge margin. There is the same chatter about the leader performance.
Result: ? (well it doesn't take much to guess)
But let's not bother Theresa May. She's too busy "thinking about Brexit" to debate against Labour. A classic case of underestimating the electorate.
Other than that we're hoovering up UKIP votes.
I reckon that (as usual) there will be quite a lot of people telling the pollsters they are going to vote Jezza who either won't show up on the day or will vote Con in the privacy of the polling booth - Enough to have Con 2% higher and Lab 2% lower than whatever the final polls show...
WillS
Diarrhea - Wikipedia
In London, I think, Labour will gain seats.
Last yougovs before prev election: 34-34 34-34 33-33 34-33 34-33 33-34
Actual result: 38-31
Unweighted: 84%
Weighted: 64%
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
The point is that the likelihood is that Corbyn's Labour has had its surge (and it has been a surge - the TNS numbers wouldn't have drawn a sigh of Tory relief three weeks ago), and they're still well short with few undecided people left.
Personally, I tend to agree with that. We are at the stage when, in any campaign, there are many fewer people on the doorstep saying "I haven't really thought" or "the wife and I were just discussing it over dinner, funnily enough". There's more "yes" and more "no" to "will you be supporting us?". The canvassing is very much identify and solidify now.
https://twitter.com/d_g_alexander/status/869868422091468800
The lack of even the most vague understanding of what a Corbyn premiership would do to their jobs, taxes, house values, and mortgage costs was absolutely extraordinary; it was an utter disconnect with reality. I fear that Mr £750K mortgage will find out about reality the very hard way if YouGov are right. And these are people who not only must have a hell of a lot to lose, but who, you would have thought, would have a vague understanding of the world.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/869927375462699008
By the way, I read the Yougov explanatory document. It is not the same 7000 who are polled every day. It is 50000 panellists over a week.
*The Tories will still win easily but boy this is entertaining. The Labourites on here are largely chipper even though they are, to a man (and woman), certain Labour will lose. A PB Tory put it well – Labour people are always more chipper even when behind, because they vote with their hearts and not with their heads. Some truth in that.