It's almost too late. You can't conjure a campaign out of nothing in the final week. The Tories have no plan, no grid, no announcements, nothing. It is quite bizarre.
And Theresa May called this election at a time of her choosing. She could have had it all set up, secretly, while Labour squabbled. She had the advantage of surprise!
When May called the election I thought that there must have been a team secretly working on a campaign for quite a long while, and that they had done a great job of keeping it secret. I don't think that now, it looks to me that it came out of the blue for the party. Hence the manifesto, dismal campaigning, and failure to challenge Labour.
Even if she wins, unless she wins big, Theresa May is going to be loathed by many of her MPs. Not great.
It's almost too late. You can't conjure a campaign out of nothing in the final week. The Tories have no plan, no grid, no announcements, nothing. It is quite bizarre.
And Theresa May called this election at a time of her choosing. She could have had it all set up, secretly, while Labour squabbled. She had the advantage of surprise!
When May called the election I thought that there must have been a team secretly working on a campaign for quite a long while, and that they had done a great job of keeping it secret. I don't think that now, it looks to me that it came out of the blue for the party. Hence the manifesto, dismal campaigning, and failure to challenge Labour.
Even if she wins, unless she wins big, Theresa May is going to be loathed by many of her MPs. Not great.
No, it's the Labour Party which loathes winning leaders.
Those momentum kids who signed up to Yougov have been proper naughty.
And counter-productive. They will force people out to vote in huge numbers, just to make sure they keep him away from power. Corbyn is Kinnock, cubed. It will end up costing Labour seats.
Canterbury is an interesting one. Looks close-ish on the Yougov model. There's a uni there. Labour 25/1 on BetfairSB.
When does term end?
Canterbury????
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
I know this seat well and the chances of Labour winning here are zero. It didn't go Labour at peak Blair.
Playing devils advocate, the demographics of the Labour surge are very different to the Blair years though. Blair didn't win on the back of the kiddy vote.
Blair lost Chesterfield twice after Iraq
A remarkable achievement given he only had one election after Iraq.
SO according to the YouGov constituency thingy Ceredigion is likely to be Liberal Democrats with the possibilty that the Tories could end up in second place - B*******
But no, Corbyn in office would be embarrassing. He's done well during the campaign because it's his comfort zone. He likes campaigning he's experienced at it; a few repeated slogans go a long way. But think back to his time as parliamentary leader and multiply it several fold for the effect of being PM rather than LotO and you have some idea of what it'd be like.
Disagree, as you'd expect of me. The bulk of the PLP don't dislike Jeremy, they just thought he'd lose and put their seats at risk. If he wins, they'll suspend disbelief, with a few well-known exceptions. No doubt mid-term would be bloody as usual, but for the first year he'd be fine.
A point which I've not seen made is that May has called the election at precisely the mid-term point where governments are normally unpopular. She thought the "firm mandate for Brexit" line would swing it, but then proved less than obviously firm on other matters.
I'm not going to disagree on the proficiency of the Tory campaign. However, we only need to look to Corbyn as LotO in parliament to imagine what he'd be like as PM. He's bad enough as PMQs when he has the advantage of initiative. Imagine what he'd be like if he had to answer the questions: it'd be Woman's Hour on repeat with a genuinely hostile atmosphere.
Were he to win, he'd no doubt get a honeymoon over the summer, while parliament isn't sitting and before the Brexit talks start in earnest (which given the UK's GE, now can't really happen until after the German election). I'd expect a Corbyn-led government to be trailing by Christmas and mining depths not explored even under Gordon Brown by mid-term.
If he became PM, the LotO should just ask
"Why did you support the IRA over Britain?" 6 times every week
His reply will be "I am here because the British people put me here"
But no, Corbyn in office would be embarrassing. He's done well during the campaign because it's his comfort zone. He likes campaigning he's experienced at it; a few repeated slogans go a long way. But think back to his time as parliamentary leader and multiply it several fold for the effect of being PM rather than LotO and you have some idea of what it'd be like.
Disagree, as you'd expect of me. The bulk of the PLP don't dislike Jeremy, they just thought he'd lose and put their seats at risk. If he wins, they'll suspend disbelief, with a few well-known exceptions. No doubt mid-term would be bloody as usual, but for the first year he'd be fine.
A point which I've not seen made is that May has called the election at precisely the mid-term point where governments are normally unpopular. She thought the "firm mandate for Brexit" line would swing it, but then proved less than obviously firm on other matters.
I'm not going to disagree on the proficiency of the Tory campaign. However, we only need to look to Corbyn as LotO in parliament to imagine what he'd be like as PM. He's bad enough as PMQs when he has the advantage of initiative. Imagine what he'd be like if he had to answer the questions: it'd be Woman's Hour on repeat with a genuinely hostile atmosphere.
Were he to win, he'd no doubt get a honeymoon over the summer, while parliament isn't sitting and before the Brexit talks start in earnest (which given the UK's GE, now can't really happen until after the German election). I'd expect a Corbyn-led government to be trailing by Christmas and mining depths not explored even under Gordon Brown by mid-term.
If he became PM, the LotO should just ask
"Why did you support the IRA over Britain?" 6 times every week
His reply will be "I am here because the British people put me here"
We might take a leaf from your book and say "not the majority of them"
It's almost too late. You can't conjure a campaign out of nothing in the final week. The Tories have no plan, no grid, no announcements, nothing. It is quite bizarre.
And Theresa May called this election at a time of her choosing. She could have had it all set up, secretly, while Labour squabbled. She had the advantage of surprise!
When May called the election I thought that there must have been a team secretly working on a campaign for quite a long while, and that they had done a great job of keeping it secret. I don't think that now, it looks to me that it came out of the blue for the party. Hence the manifesto, dismal campaigning, and failure to challenge Labour.
Even if she wins, unless she wins big, Theresa May is going to be loathed by many of her MPs. Not great.
It's almost too late. You can't conjure a campaign out of nothing in the final week. The Tories have no plan, no grid, no announcements, nothing. It is quite bizarre.
And Theresa May called this election at a time of her choosing. She could have had it all set up, secretly, while Labour squabbled. She had the advantage of surprise!
When May called the election I thought that there must have been a team secretly working on a campaign for quite a long while, and that they had done a great job of keeping it secret. I don't think that now, it looks to me that it came out of the blue for the party. Hence the manifesto, dismal campaigning, and failure to challenge Labour.
Even if she wins, unless she wins big, Theresa May is going to be loathed by many of her MPs. Not great.
No, it's the Labour Party which loathes winning leaders.
The Tories stabbed Maggie three years after a landslide. Major endured no end of plots after an unexpected win. Cameron jumped rather than being pushed just over a year after his election win.
I wonder if we will get an extension on Article 50. It requires unanimity from the EU27, but it's clear we are not going to be anywhere near ready by March 2019 and it probably is in the EU's interest to delay to ensure a more orderly disengagement. They can keep us on a short leash and probably extract lots of cash. If not win/win then no_lose/no_lose.
Those momentum kids who signed up to Yougov have been proper naughty.
And counter-productive. They will force people out to vote in huge numbers, just to make sure they keep him away from power. Corbyn is Kinnock, cubed. It will end up costing Labour seats.
How we laughed.....
Whatever, there is no knocking YouGov after the fun in the sun we've had today
Incedently I have been through this area for the last couple of nights, and I see a handful of labour posters up in posh flats but zero tory. Will be a easy Tory hold though.
For my constituency (Hove) Yougov and Election forecast have vastly different forecasts.
Yougov have with 95% probability Con less than 41% and Lab greater than 48%. Electionforecast have a 92% probability that Com will win it.
Yougov feels more likely to be correct to be - but I'm taking into account that Labour have a decent candidate and the Tories have a terrible one and Yougov's model can't know that.
That's their social-economic model. They have made up for only having small samples in each seat (about 75 I believe) by searching for other people in nearby seats with similar demographics. What their model has done is identity middle class remainers living all over West London and moved them all into Kensington.
According to the PB commentariat, May is a total muppet, who is losing millions of votes by the hour as the country warms to Mr. Corbyn.
It's a miracle Labour aren't already 10 points ahead of the Tories, given how dreadful May is.....
To get above a certain level Conservatives and UKIP voters from 2010 and 2015 have to directly switch to Labour, rather than Labour simply cleaning up all the Left-wing votes, all in response to Theresa seeming a bit flaky over the manifesto and its aftermath.
Possible, but I think not. Corbyn is following a noisy 35% strategy without realising it.
I've always thought much of the UKIP vote in the North wouldn't vote Tory if it came to it. That said, there comes a level of Tory support where however the non Tory vote is split doesn't make that much difference.
Looking at last time when the Tories nationally (GB) were just under 38%, the seat stratification was as follows
Tory vote over 50% 174 seats Won all Tory vote 45%-50% 78 seats Won all Tory vote 40%-45% 73 seats Won 61 Lost 12 Tory vote 35%-40% 34 seats Won 16 Tory vote 30-35% 62 seats Won 2 (Gower and Portsmouth) Tory vote below 30% 231 seats Won 0
The highest Tory vote share that lost was 44% in Wirral West. The highest Tory vote share anywhere was 65%.
If the Tory vote overall is up at least 5% on last time, then hard to see how they could lose their majority, regardless of how the opposition is split. If the Tories get to 45% in a constituency they'll win it, and there would seem to be 325 seats where that is fairly straightforward, unless there are mad regional swings going on.
Canterbury is an interesting one. Looks close-ish on the Yougov model. There's a uni there. Labour 25/1 on BetfairSB.
When does term end?
Canterbury????
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
I know this seat well and the chances of Labour winning here are zero. It didn't go Labour at peak Blair.
Playing devils advocate, the demographics of the Labour surge are very different to the Blair years though. Blair didn't win on the back of the kiddy vote.
Blair lost Chesterfield twice after Iraq
A remarkable achievement given he only had one election after Iraq.
Those momentum kids who signed up to Yougov have been proper naughty.
But that doesn't explain the huge YouGov Tory leads of a few weeks ago.
Of course it does. If you are signed up to YouGov as Momentum - you want to show your guy has, er, momentum. So at the start of the campaign, you say you are Tory or LibDem - but the power of Corbyn's oratory during the campaign has won you over....
I wonder if we will get an extension on Article 50. It requires unanimity from the EU27, but it's clear we are not going to be anywhere near ready by March 2019 and it probably is in the EU's interest to delay to ensure a more orderly disengagement. They can keep us on a short leash and probably extract lots of cash. If not win/win then no_lose/no_lose.
No, because under Article 50 that'd require the consent of the UK as well.
This YouGov analysis has unravelled faster than a Tory policy announcement.
How stupid we will all look when SNP take Orkney and Shetland.
Last year in the Holyrood elections, the LibDems got 67.4% of the vote in O&S. In the Orkney consituency their vote share was up 31.6%, and in the Shetland one it rose 19.1%. They got more than three times the number of votes as the second placed SNP.
I'm calling this the one and only safe LD seat in the country, irrespective of what the 2015 General Election result was.
Canterbury is an interesting one. Looks close-ish on the Yougov model. There's a uni there. Labour 25/1 on BetfairSB.
When does term end?
Canterbury????
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
I know this seat well and the chances of Labour winning here are zero. It didn't go Labour at peak Blair.
Playing devils advocate, the demographics of the Labour surge are very different to the Blair years though. Blair didn't win on the back of the kiddy vote.
Blair lost Chesterfield twice after Iraq
A remarkable achievement given he only had one election after Iraq.
A solid working majority for Brexit for the Tories, but not a landslide so May is elected dictator, and one that forces her to govern more collegiately and consultatively, without giving her a majority so small she is vulnerable to rebellions and opposition ambushes.
And also one that gives mixed messages to Labour: maybe, if you pick a non-insane leader.
Rather than look at the opinion polls, Mike should just install a program at the top of each each header that generates random numbers within certain ranges for each party, the first person on the thread gets to press the "randomize" button, then we discuss the results
Isn't that more or less what the pollsters are doing already ?
Those momentum kids who signed up to Yougov have been proper naughty.
And counter-productive. They will force people out to vote in huge numbers, just to make sure they keep him away from power. Corbyn is Kinnock, cubed. It will end up costing Labour seats.
How we laughed.....
Of course, winning and the responsibilities of government would fill Corby and Momentum with horror.
Canterbury is an interesting one. Looks close-ish on the Yougov model. There's a uni there. Labour 25/1 on BetfairSB.
When does term end?
Canterbury????
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
I know this seat well and the chances of Labour winning here are zero. It didn't go Labour at peak Blair.
Playing devils advocate, the demographics of the Labour surge are very different to the Blair years though. Blair didn't win on the back of the kiddy vote.
I'm not convinced about the 'kiddy' vote turning out for Corbyn.
I can't see it. Certainly among the 'lad culture' group his lack of patriotism will be a huge turn off, and these WWC voters will also be influenced by their parents more than the children of the AB voters. He will do well amongst University students, but I suspect even 50% of those will find him too radical and not convincing enough on Brexit to bother turning out for him. I'd expect 18-24 turnout to hit 60% but no way will it go above the 70% yougov/survation seem to expect. Youngsters are not as turned on by politics/Corbyn as these pollsters are imply, this isn't the Prague Spring ffs!
Rather than look at the opinion polls, Mike should just install a program at the top of each each header that generates random numbers within certain ranges for each party, the first person on the thread gets to press the "randomize" button, then we discuss the results
Isn't that more or less what the pollsters are doing already ?
I get absolutely no satisfaction in being proven right on Theresa May being crap.
She's trashing the party and handing 2022 on a plate to Labour.
Michael Gove probably should have become leader last year, keeping Osborne as Foreign Secretary to soothe the sores, and making Rudd, or Hammond, Chancellor. But he couldn't help acting like a Lannister.
I don't know what he'd have done with May. Now probably isn't the right time to ask that question.
Sorry but that is rubbish. He had a terrible public image and shafted Boris so began with a reoutation of being untrustworthy. Plus you had the screaming habdab of a lady macbeth wife.
Come on casino... people need to get real... and on a number of things.
Labour are not going to retake Presell Pembrokeshire on the youth surge.
You just need a random number generator to make these predictions.
Its my neck of the woods and I would love Crabb to be ousted, so would a lot of non Tories. Definitely more younger people coming on board but unlikely to he enough to make a difference. Fingers crossed though m
The Green vote elsewhere in Scotland having to vote SNP because the Green's aren't standing will be confusing YouGov's modelling I would guess. Interesting to see the cross-over between SNP and Scot Green voters however.
I suppose there's always the possibility that Celtic fans haven't sobered up from the treble festivities, and rally around Green Patrick
Canterbury is an interesting one. Looks close-ish on the Yougov model. There's a uni there. Labour 25/1 on BetfairSB.
When does term end?
Canterbury????
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
I know this seat well and the chances of Labour winning here are zero. It didn't go Labour at peak Blair.
Playing devils advocate, the demographics of the Labour surge are very different to the Blair years though. Blair didn't win on the back of the kiddy vote.
I'm not convinced about the 'kiddy' vote turning out for Corbyn.
I can't see it. Certainly among the 'lad culture' group his lack of patriotism will be a huge turn off, and these WWC voters will also be influenced by their parents more than the children of the AB voters. He will do well amongst University students, but I suspect even 50% of those will find him too radical and not convincing enough on Brexit to bother turning out for him. I'd expect 18-24 turnout to hit 60% but no way will it go above the 70% yougov/survation seem to expect. Youngsters are not as turned on by politics/Corbyn as these pollsters are imply, this isn't the Prague Spring ffs!
I wonder if we will get an extension on Article 50. It requires unanimity from the EU27, but it's clear we are not going to be anywhere near ready by March 2019 and it probably is in the EU's interest to delay to ensure a more orderly disengagement. They can keep us on a short leash and probably extract lots of cash. If not win/win then no_lose/no_lose.
No, because under Article 50 that'd require the consent of the UK as well.
Yes - we have to REQUEST an extension. Which obviously requires our consent. They can't 'give' us one without us formally asking for it.
I think a short (3-6 month) extension is actually quite likely, assuming talks are well advanced but that we aren't quite there yet.
If things are going badly, then I think we'll just end up leaving without an agreement in two years.
I get absolutely no satisfaction in being proven right on Theresa May being crap.
She's trashing the party and handing 2022 on a plate to Labour.
Michael Gove probably should have become leader last year, keeping Osborne as Foreign Secretary to soothe the sores, and making Rudd, or Hammond, Chancellor. But he couldn't help acting like a Lannister.
I don't know what he'd have done with May. Now probably isn't the right time to ask that question.
Sorry but that is rubbish. He had a terrible public image and shafted Boris so began with a reoutation of being untrustworthy. Plus you had the screaming habdab of a lady macbeth wife.
Come on casino... people need to get real... and on a number of things.
Um. If you read my post properly you'll see I said if he hadn't acted like a Lannister.
That would have involved him not running with Boris, and running by himself alone at the start so he made the run-off.
This YouGov analysis has unravelled faster than a Tory policy announcement.
How stupid we will all look when SNP take Orkney and Shetland.
Last year in the Holyrood elections, the LibDems got 67.4% of the vote in O&S. In the Orkney consituency their vote share was up 31.6%, and in the Shetland one it rose 19.1%. They got more than three times the number of votes as the second placed SNP.
I'm calling this the one and only safe LD seat in the country, irrespective of what the 2015 General Election result was.
But what if on election day Godzilla rises out of the sea and stomps on every LD voter? You didn't consider that did you?
Those momentum kids who signed up to Yougov have been proper naughty.
And counter-productive. They will force people out to vote in huge numbers, just to make sure they keep him away from power. Corbyn is Kinnock, cubed. It will end up costing Labour seats.
How we laughed.....
Of course, winning and the responsibilities of government would fill Corby and Momentum with horror.
Something they would share with the population at large!
SO according to the YouGov constituency thingy Ceredigion is likely to be Liberal Democrats with the possibilty that the Tories could end up in second place - B*******
According to the PB commentariat, May is a total muppet, who is losing millions of votes by the hour as the country warms to Mr. Corbyn.
It's a miracle Labour aren't already 10 points ahead of the Tories, given how dreadful May is.....
To get above a certain level Conservatives and UKIP voters from 2010 and 2015 have to directly switch to Labour, rather than Labour simply cleaning up all the Left-wing votes, all in response to Theresa seeming a bit flaky over the manifesto and its aftermath.
Possible, but I think not. Corbyn is following a noisy 35% strategy without realising it.
I've always thought much of the UKIP vote in the North wouldn't vote Tory if it came to it. That said, there comes a level of Tory support where however the non Tory vote is split doesn't make that much difference.
Looking at last time when the Tories nationally (GB) were just under 38%, the seat stratification was as follows
Tory vote over 50% 174 seats Won all Tory vote 45%-50% 78 seats Won all Tory vote 40%-45% 73 seats Won 61 Lost 12 Tory vote 35%-40% 34 seats Won 16 Tory vote 30-35% 62 seats Won 2 (Gower and Portsmouth) Tory vote below 30% 231 seats Won 0
The highest Tory vote share that lost was 44% in Wirral West. The highest Tory vote share anywhere was 65%.
If the Tory vote overall is up at least 5% on last time, then hard to see how they could lose their majority, regardless of how the opposition is split. If the Tories get to 45% in a constituency they'll win it, and there would seem to be 325 seats where that is fairly straightforward, unless there are mad regional swings going on.
Re the earlier comment on East Devon. I know the independent candidate pretty well - she is a fantastic campaigner and has a huge majority in her county seat of Ottery St Mary which would otherwise be extremely safe Tory. She also has a big team unlike many other independents.
Two things are somewhat against her though - there aren't going to be too many "kiddies for Claire" - as someone said upthread the constituency is one of the oldest in the country. The other issue she might have is she probably isn't conservative enough with a small C. Corbynite views are utterly toxic down here and the slightest suggestion she might be comfortable with him as PM would be electorally fatal.
I wonder if we will get an extension on Article 50. It requires unanimity from the EU27, but it's clear we are not going to be anywhere near ready by March 2019 and it probably is in the EU's interest to delay to ensure a more orderly disengagement. They can keep us on a short leash and probably extract lots of cash. If not win/win then no_lose/no_lose.
No, because under Article 50 that'd require the consent of the UK as well.
Obviously it's not in our interests to crash out of the EU unprepared. Two years is an unrealistically short period of time to sort things out even if we had a government that was focused on the task in hand and had been level with the British people about what Brexit involves.
I get absolutely no satisfaction in being proven right on Theresa May being crap.
She's trashing the party and handing 2022 on a plate to Labour.
Michael Gove probably should have become leader last year, keeping Osborne as Foreign Secretary to soothe the sores, and making Rudd, or Hammond, Chancellor. But he couldn't help acting like a Lannister.
I don't know what he'd have done with May. Now probably isn't the right time to ask that question.
Sorry but that is rubbish. He had a terrible public image and shafted Boris so began with a reoutation of being untrustworthy. Plus you had the screaming habdab of a lady macbeth wife.
Come on casino... people need to get real... and on a number of things.
Um. If you read my post properly you'll see I said if he hadn't acted like a Lannister.
That would have involved him not running with Boris, and running by himself alone at the start so he made the run-off.
Being an odious tit would nevertheless have handicapped him somewhat.
There was something very, very strange about that death. Without going Full Tinfoil, that he is still ridiculed so many years on was the point somebody wanted to make....
The Green vote elsewhere in Scotland having to vote SNP because the Green's aren't standing will be confusing YouGov's modelling I would guess. Interesting to see the cross-over between SNP and Scot Green voters however.
If this is modelling its a new usage of the word I have never seen before and probably more closely related to Jordan's "modelink" innit.
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I wonder if we will get an extension on Article 50. It requires unanimity from the EU27, but it's clear we are not going to be anywhere near ready by March 2019 and it probably is in the EU's interest to delay to ensure a more orderly disengagement. They can keep us on a short leash and probably extract lots of cash. If not win/win then no_lose/no_lose.
No, because under Article 50 that'd require the consent of the UK as well.
Obviously it's not in our interests to crash out of the EU unprepared. Two years is an unrealistically short period of time to sort things out even if we had a government that was focused on the task in hand and had been level with the British people about what Brexit involves.
There'll be an initial 'talks about talks' agreement with some transitional arrangements covered off and then a longer negotiation, beyond the two years. Why do you think Mrs May suddenly realised she needed more time?
The YouGov poll is as believable as C4 News balanced audience selection including the over60 woman who had voted Tory all her life and was now voting for Corbyn because "May's done nowt for us women".
Re the earlier comment on East Devon. I know the independent candidate pretty well - she is a fantastic campaigner and has a huge majority in her county seat of Ottery St Mary which would otherwise be extremely safe Tory. She also has a big team unlike many other independents.
Two things are somewhat against her though - there aren't going to be too many "kiddies for Claire" - as someone said upthread the constituency is one of the oldest in the country. The other issue she might have is she probably isn't conservative enough with a small C. Corbynite views are utterly toxic down here and the slightest suggestion she might be comfortable with him as PM would be electorally fatal.
Re the earlier comment on East Devon. I know the independent candidate pretty well - she is a fantastic campaigner and has a huge majority in her county seat of Ottery St Mary which would otherwise be extremely safe Tory. She also has a big team unlike many other independents.
Two things are somewhat against her though - there aren't going to be too many "kiddies for Claire" - as someone said upthread the constituency is one of the oldest in the country. The other issue she might have is she probably isn't conservative enough with a small C. Corbynite views are utterly toxic down here and the slightest suggestion she might be comfortable with him as PM would be electorally fatal.
Insight like that is always appreciated here. Many thanks.
Canterbury is an interesting one. Looks close-ish on the Yougov model. There's a uni there. Labour 25/1 on BetfairSB.
When does term end?
Canterbury????
You have got to be kidding.
There are actually three Unis there (Kent, Christchurch, and there's a University of the Arts campus; the American University has a presence there too although for this purpose that doesn't count) but the day Canterbury elects a labour MP, I will eat my hat, and my hat is not made of marzipan.
Edited to add: and if the Yougov model is saying Canterbury is winnable for anyone other than the Tories then it's even more rubbish than I thought it was.
I know this seat well and the chances of Labour winning here are zero. It didn't go Labour at peak Blair.
Playing devils advocate, the demographics of the Labour surge are very different to the Blair years though. Blair didn't win on the back of the kiddy vote.
I'm not convinced about the 'kiddy' vote turning out for Corbyn.
I can't see it. Certainly among the 'lad culture' group his lack of patriotism will be a huge turn off, and these WWC voters will also be influenced by their parents more than the children of the AB voters. He will do well amongst University students, but I suspect even 50% of those will find him too radical and not convincing enough on Brexit to bother turning out for him. I'd expect 18-24 turnout to hit 60% but no way will it go above the 70% yougov/survation seem to expect. Youngsters are not as turned on by politics/Corbyn as these pollsters are imply, this isn't the Prague Spring ffs!
ipsos had them at 42 % in 2015.
Why would it be any higher this time around?
A substantially higher 18-24 turnout isn't out of the question. They may be motivated by the EU ref vote where it has been widely, perhaps incorrectly, reported that higher youth turnout would have led to a remain victory. That vote was recent enough for them to still be angry about it and their own laziness.
Another possibility is the single-issue nature of this election (May vs. Corbyn), single issue elections generate more passion* than the consideration of multiple complex policies, passion drives turnout.
What's happened to this Wales poll? Has a sheep eaten it?
It's coming out tomorrow.
The sheep is coming out?
In the 21st century a sheep in Wales should be able to be strong and confident in its own identity. And that identity is 40% Conservative, 35% Labour, 12% Plaid.
Financial Times endorsement of the Conservative Party.
This publication stands for a liberal agenda: a small state, free trade, free markets and social justice. Neither Mrs May nor Mr Corbyn stands four-square behind these principles. Neither has offered tax and spending plans that are credible, given the short-term risks facing the economy…
The alternative to Mrs May is worse. Mr Corbyn is a fringe figure who has spent his entire political career in opposition — to his own Labour leadership. Despite his recent media makeover, he is a pacifist relic of the 1970s, in hock to the trade unions, with no grip on economic issues. It is no accident that the arrival of Mr Corbyn and his hard-left supporters in mainstream politics has coincided with a revival of anti-Semitism and misogyny. Labour’s team are unfit for government, let alone the delicate Brexit talks. The Liberal Democrats have failed to make an impact with their pledge of a second EU referendum…
Faced with such uncertainty at home and abroad, Mrs May is the safer bet.
Comments
How we laughed.....
Lee Rowley will be your new MP next week
Or I will eat Paddy PantsDowns hat
You swine. I sold at 19 seats.
You have a short memory!
More likely: YouGov panellists are more politically aware and engaged, and swing more wildly than voters at large, probably to make a point.
Not unlike several regular pb'ers on here, who are also YouGov panellists!
Yougov have with 95% probability Con less than 41% and Lab greater than 48%.
Electionforecast have a 92% probability that Com will win it.
Yougov feels more likely to be correct to be - but I'm taking into account that Labour have a decent candidate and the Tories have a terrible one and Yougov's model can't know that.
Remain Leave
CON 26 61.5
LAB 47.5 24
I get Tories on 344*, Lab 222, LD 6*, SNP 55*
*Some Scottish adjustments will need to be made as the calc just assumed the SNP will get what they did last time (They won't)
Looking at last time when the Tories nationally (GB) were just under 38%, the seat stratification was as follows
Tory vote over 50% 174 seats Won all
Tory vote 45%-50% 78 seats Won all
Tory vote 40%-45% 73 seats Won 61 Lost 12
Tory vote 35%-40% 34 seats Won 16
Tory vote 30-35% 62 seats Won 2 (Gower and Portsmouth)
Tory vote below 30% 231 seats Won 0
The highest Tory vote share that lost was 44% in Wirral West.
The highest Tory vote share anywhere was 65%.
If the Tory vote overall is up at least 5% on last time, then hard to see how they could lose their majority, regardless of how the opposition is split. If the Tories get to 45% in a constituency they'll win it, and there would seem to be 325 seats where that is fairly straightforward, unless there are mad regional swings going on.
You are quite right Iraq 2003
Simples.
It's just it's been a bad year for the garden, and I reckon this could do wonders for my roses if I dig it thoroughly into the beds. Thanks.
I'm calling this the one and only safe LD seat in the country, irrespective of what the 2015 General Election result was.
Rudd 52
Labour 40
WillS.
A solid working majority for Brexit for the Tories, but not a landslide so May is elected dictator, and one that forces her to govern more collegiately and consultatively, without giving her a majority so small she is vulnerable to rebellions and opposition ambushes.
And also one that gives mixed messages to Labour: maybe, if you pick a non-insane leader.
Chance of Labour majority he has at 0.00.
Now getting either of those wrong WOULD be an epic fail!
With Tories + UKIP on over 50% last time, and Labour on 28%, I'm struggling to see that one.
Come on casino... people need to get real... and on a number of things.
Why would it be any higher this time around?
I think a short (3-6 month) extension is actually quite likely, assuming talks are well advanced but that we aren't quite there yet.
If things are going badly, then I think we'll just end up leaving without an agreement in two years.
That would have involved him not running with Boris, and running by himself alone at the start so he made the run-off.
Two things are somewhat against her though - there aren't going to be too many "kiddies for Claire" - as someone said upthread the constituency is one of the oldest in the country. The other issue she might have is she probably isn't conservative enough with a small C. Corbynite views are utterly toxic down here and the slightest suggestion she might be comfortable with him as PM would be electorally fatal.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/february/8/newsid_2538000/2538165.stm
https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/869863539380498434
And most people will have forgotten that anyway.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/train-company-unveils-34-syllable-ticket-201102243578
"THE new Semi-Super Saver Single Return Railroader Autumn Summer Traveller Student Nurse District Pet Family Oxbow Lake Pass is actually straightforward, it has been claimed.
Best Central Trains said the 34-syllable ticket was a ‘huge step forward’ from the standard single.
A spokesman said: “You just book it online, not more than three days before your journey and not less than nine days after, and at a time in the lunar cycle when the moon may be described as ‘gibbous’.
“Although you cannot print your ticket at home, you will be issued with a simple 47-digit code, written for security reasons in the ancient language of the Sumerians.
“At the station, you simply repeat the code verbally with all the correct intonation to a friendly moustachioed robot named ‘Monsieur Le Pouton’.
“On acceptance of your code, M. Le Pouton’s moustaches will twirl and several dozen tickets and receipts will issue from his mouth, flying all over the platform.
“You’ll need to pick them all up and take every single one to your nearest owl, then punch them three times with its beak. Any owl will do, most of them are fine with this type of process.
“Then you are almost ready to travel, presuming you have brought blood and stool samples along to help us verify your biological identity, without which our inspectors may be forced to waterboard you using a big polystyrene bucket of scalding hot coffee before hurling your spent body from the moving train, into a ditch full of fag butts and toads.”
Commuter Nikki Hollis said: “Fuck everyone who had anything to do with this.”
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/869889802375704576
We'll Krishnan believed her!
Does anyone know a good Navision implementation consultant? Ideally able to start tomorrow.
boom tish!
Another possibility is the single-issue nature of this election (May vs. Corbyn), single issue elections generate more passion* than the consideration of multiple complex policies, passion drives turnout.
WillS.
* I have no evidence for this whatsoever.
This publication stands for a liberal agenda: a small state, free trade, free markets and social justice. Neither Mrs May nor Mr Corbyn stands four-square behind these principles. Neither has offered tax and spending plans that are credible, given the short-term risks facing the economy…
The alternative to Mrs May is worse. Mr Corbyn is a fringe figure who has spent his entire political career in opposition — to his own Labour leadership. Despite his recent media makeover, he is a pacifist relic of the 1970s, in hock to the trade unions, with no grip on economic issues. It is no accident that the arrival of Mr Corbyn and his hard-left supporters in mainstream politics has coincided with a revival of anti-Semitism and misogyny. Labour’s team are unfit for government, let alone the delicate Brexit talks. The Liberal Democrats have failed to make an impact with their pledge of a second EU referendum…
Faced with such uncertainty at home and abroad, Mrs May is the safer bet.