The other 5 parties are not going to like this 'its all about Jeremy' schtick
I can't help but think there is a trap somewhere. The Tories would have known Jezza was going to appear, after all if he wasn't Labour would have appointed someone to the task days ago. So it's fair to assume at the very least Rudd has been preparing to face Corbyn.
Nope. It was the belief that they control narrative. Strong and stable means not showing up just because some poxy TV company like BBC asks you.
You still think May is Strong and Stable?
I don't want my leaders to be strong and stable, but Jeremy Corbyn can make a case for being stronger and more stable than Theresa May.
I suspect Corbyn was always going to appear tonight and shaft May.
She's toast. Absolutely toast if she can't get to Cambridge tonight. Sure the audience will be tiny and a fraction of the Britain Talent audience but word will get round and the news coverage and press will be horrid.
She deserves humiliation next week. Hopeless and frit.
I increasingly think Jez can do a Trump. So to speak...
I still think the Tories will get a majority between 80 and 100.
No panic here.
I reckon Corbyn will get a load of youngsters out to vote in the university cities, and will pile up votes in the inner cities, but the Tories will win a tump of marginals.
I still think May is pretty dour. But her tedious, uncurious, waffling, stubborn, churchy, boring style will be perfect for negotiating with the EU. She'll grind them down through pure tedium.
and she will definitely not U Turn
FFS how many examples of weak and wobbly do you need
Last try. You ARE quoting directly off the STV website BUT you have gone down a rabbit hole to the wrong (older) opinion poll (Gives up in frustration, I can do no more :-)
I still think the Tories will get a majority between 80 and 100.
No panic here.
I reckon Corbyn will get a load of youngsters out to vote in the university cities, and will pile up votes in the inner cities, but the Tories will win a tump of marginals.
I still think May is pretty dour. But her tedious, uncurious, waffling, stubborn, churchy, boring style will be perfect for negotiating with the EU. She'll grind them down through pure tedium.
I think the universities will be a red herring in this election. Most will have finished for summer so those students will affect some other seats. I wonder if there is any information on number of students going to university in each parliamentary constituency - that would make interesting reading, as for example if a large number of students returned to Chester and voted Corbyn it could change the outcome.
She needs to announce a massive policy to turn this around. Something on the scale of Osborne's Inheritance Tax cut. Something really big to dominate the headlines for a couple of days. CCHQ if you are reading this, DO IT NOW! NOW! we have no more time to lose.
We cannot have Corbyn negeotiating Brexit, I believe the labour surge is real because the policies themselves are popular. He has a big increased lead with women under 40, this does not suprise me as they are more likely to work in the public sector and have had 1% pay caps now for years, and the cuts are really really just starting to bite now.
She should announce she is honouring the Brexit bus £350 million a week extra for the NHS. That would be popular....
As I trailed here over a month ago.
But the bearded Rasputin wouldn't wear it.
They could pay for it by doubling student fees cutting state pensions and selling the bus as an artwork to the Saatchi Gallery
The write up sounds very convincing and they obviously have some confidence in it, citing successful road tests during Brexit and the Presidential. They say it *could* be wrong in 30-40 seats. But it's clear from the write up that it rests upon a lot of modelling and assumptions; the days when pollsters picked 1000 people at random and just reported what they say seem to be long gone.
Thanks.
Has yougov released the actual model?
Like, 650 constituencies with voteshare bellcurves?
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
This is the PB bubble, in reality people don't consume as much politics as us, they think differently. May is still Prime Ministerial, the polls show it, both in terms of her party share and her personal ratings.
Last try. You ARE quoting directly off the STV website BUT you have gone down a rabbit hole to the wrong (older) opinion poll (Gives up in frustration, I can do no more :-)
I started here
Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson received a higher satisfaction rating than First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in the survey.
I think May is competent at the chairmanship and administration of being Prime Minister, and very tough when she needs to be, but not at the oratory or inspiration.
She can be warm and personable, but only if it's on a 1:1 basis. She just can't do crowd-rousing set-piece speeches, debates or high-pressure Q&As. She just gets too nervous, isn't quick enough on her feet, and so she retreats into the empty platitudes of a Typical Politician.
However, she is clearly the better of the two options.
I suspect Corbyn was always going to appear tonight and shaft May.
She's toast. Absolutely toast if she can't get to Cambridge tonight. Sure the audience will be tiny and a fraction of the Britain Talent audience but word will get round and the news coverage and press will be horrid.
She deserves humiliation next week. Hopeless and frit.
I increasingly think Jez can do a Trump. So to speak...
So Corbyn has skilfully announced his participation in the debate at the last minute for maximum effect. I was surprised, assuming him to be an idiot. The negative media has blinded me to the obvious. Jeremy Corbyn is good at politics. It's his job. I am going to give up news. It clouds the judgement.
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
This is the PB bubble, in reality people don't consume as much politics as us, they think differently. May is still Prime Ministerial, the polls show it, both in terms of her party share and her personal ratings.
Her ratings have fallen substantially since the start of the campaign.
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
It's been almost painful. All the magic that surrounded Theresa when she called the election has been obliterated. The entire exercise has succeeded only in making Jezza look a bit of a star.
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
This is the PB bubble, in reality people don't consume as much politics as us, they think differently. May is still Prime Ministerial, the polls show it, both in terms of her party share and her personal ratings.
While I think she should have taken part, I don't think it's a big issue.
So Corbyn has skilfully announced his participation in the debate at the last minute for maximum effect. I was surprised, assuming him to be an idiot. The negative media has blinded me to the obvious. Jeremy Corbyn is good at politics. It's his job. I am going to give up news. It clouds the judgement.
With hindsight the manifesto leak - which looks very likely came from his side - looks to have worked out well also.
I suspect Corbyn was always going to appear tonight and shaft May.
She's toast. Absolutely toast if she can't get to Cambridge tonight. Sure the audience will be tiny and a fraction of the Britain Talent audience but word will get round and the news coverage and press will be horrid.
She deserves humiliation next week. Hopeless and frit.
I increasingly think Jez can do a Trump. So to speak...
Jez is more like Bernie Sanders. Whips up the fervent support of his leftist base but won't quite make it at the end. The pound and markets reacting to the bad poll reminds people albeit sub-consciously what's at stake
I still think the Tories will get a majority between 80 and 100.
No panic here.
I reckon Corbyn will get a load of youngsters out to vote in the university cities, and will pile up votes in the inner cities, but the Tories will win a tump of marginals.
I still think May is pretty dour. But her tedious, uncurious, waffling, stubborn, churchy, boring style will be perfect for negotiating with the EU. She'll grind them down through pure tedium.
and she will definitely not U Turn
FFS how many examples of weak and wobbly do you need
This is a GE campaign, and she has staked her whole reputation and career on it.
She's up against a socialist offering free lunches all round, and the polls have spooked the Tories.
She u-turned on care costs and I don't blame her. Voters don't like being told the scary truth.
But even on her shittest, crappiest, stupidest day, she still has a professional juggernaut of a political party around her. Corbyn, on the other hand, even on his best, most-exquisite, MDMA-filled days, is surrounded by Diane Abbott, Stalinists like Milne and Murray, and violence-touting insurrectionists like McDonnell.... not to mention his 85% of PLP MPs who regard him as dog shit.
Times are tricky. I have kids. I want them to have a future. Corbyn is not the answer.
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
This is the PB bubble, in reality people don't consume as much politics as us, they think differently. May is still Prime Ministerial, the polls show it, both in terms of her party share and her personal ratings.
Her ratings have fallen substantially since the start of the campaign.
They have indeed, as to be expected. They're still positive though which is quite an achievement.
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
Dave did in the EUref campaign.
A referendum is a different beast to a general election.
Sure, but he fucked his reputation quite badly during it, though I think it has recovered a bit since then. The people have seen how poor Theresa is at a job that Dave made look easy.
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
Ever since the election was announced I kept thinking the real Tory campaign will start soon, here we are with a week to go and I still haven't a clue what they are up to. The Tory campaign has been so utterly useless that they deserve to lose, I think the only thing keeping them in the race is that Corbyn is pure poison to anyone even mildly right-wing. Even Ed Miliband would be beating May, never mind a good leader.
If the Tories do actually win a large majority I will be just as baffled by that as I have been by the popularity of Corbyn, and the failure of "the 48%" to turn up for the Lib Dems. On paper this election should be easy for the Tories, instead they look like they are stuck in the mud.
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
Dave did in the EUref campaign.
With some Tory leavers maybe, but most remainers thought he did as well as could be expected. Theresa has been subject to the most extreme downward revision from all sides.
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
It's been almost painful. All the magic that surrounded Theresa when she called the election has been obliterated. The entire exercise has succeeded only in making Jezza look a bit of a star.
So Corbyn has skilfully announced his participation in the debate at the last minute for maximum effect. I was surprised, assuming him to be an idiot. The negative media has blinded me to the obvious. Jeremy Corbyn is good at politics. It's his job. I am going to give up news. It clouds the judgement.
Corbyn should have announced he would go to the debate on Sun or Mon and then had two or three days of headlines saying "I'll debate, why is May scared to?".
Announcing at last minute misses that - he just gets one afternoon of that narrative and the debate itself.
Debate audience would also be higher if Corbyn announcement had been earlier.
I think May is competent at the chairmanship and administration of being Prime Minister, and very tough when she needs to be, but not at the oratory or inspiration.
She can be warm and personable, but only if it's on a 1:1 basis. She just can't do crowd-rousing set-piece speeches, debates or high-pressure Q&As. She just gets too nervous, isn't quick enough on her feet, and so she retreats into the empty platitudes of a Typical Politician.
However, she is clearly the better of the two options.
So she wins.
Positive things are said about May's private persona but I don't recall anyone saying she is warm and personable? I have spoken to a previous HO junior minister and the best I recall was "reasonable".
I still think the Tories will get a majority between 80 and 100.
No panic here.
I reckon Corbyn will get a load of youngsters out to vote in the university cities, and will pile up votes in the inner cities, but the Tories will win a tump of marginals.
I still think May is pretty dour. But her tedious, uncurious, waffling, stubborn, churchy, boring style will be perfect for negotiating with the EU. She'll grind them down through pure tedium.
and she will definitely not U Turn
FFS how many examples of weak and wobbly do you need
This is a GE campaign, and she has staked her whole reputation and career on it.
She's up against a socialist offering free lunches all round, and the polls have spooked the Tories.
She u-turned on care costs and I don't blame her. Voters don't like being told the scary truth.
But even on her shittest, crappiest, stupidest day, she still has a professional juggernaut of a political party around her. Corbyn, on the other hand, even on his best, most-exquisite, MDMA-filled days, is surrounded by Diane Abbott, Stalinists like Milne and Murray, and violence-touting insurrectionists like McDonnell.... not to mention his 85% of PLP MPs who regard him as dog shit.
Times are tricky. I have kids. I want them to have a future. Corbyn is not the answer.
Kids need Corbyn without him the excesses of the few get worse.
People really can't expect us to believe that an entire parliaments worth of change of opinion has occurred in 3 weeks, it's ludicrous. It's poll following, news agenda following nonsense. She was either never going to win or always has been and will.
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
It's been almost painful. All the magic that surrounded Theresa when she called the election has been obliterated. The entire exercise has succeeded only in making Jezza look a bit of a star.
I still think the Tories will get a majority between 80 and 100.
No panic here.
I reckon Corbyn will get a load of youngsters out to vote in the university cities, and will pile up votes in the inner cities, but the Tories will win a tump of marginals.
I still think May is pretty dour. But her tedious, uncurious, waffling, stubborn, churchy, boring style will be perfect for negotiating with the EU. She'll grind them down through pure tedium.
and she will definitely not U Turn
FFS how many examples of weak and wobbly do you need
This is a GE campaign, and she has staked her whole reputation and career on it.
She's up against a socialist offering free lunches all round, and the polls have spooked the Tories.
She u-turned on care costs and I don't blame her. Voters don't like being told the scary truth.
But even on her shittest, crappiest, stupidest day, she still has a professional juggernaut of a political party around her. Corbyn, on the other hand, even on his best, most-exquisite, MDMA-filled days, is surrounded by Diane Abbott, Stalinists like Milne and Murray, and violence-touting insurrectionists like McDonnell.... not to mention his 85% of PLP MPs who regard him as dog shit.
Times are tricky. I have kids. I want them to have a future. Corbyn is not the answer.
Kids need Corbyn without him the excesses of the few get worse.
The BBC1 1pm News was actually very good for May - main GE story was Lab won't control immigration, Con will.
The problem is that if the majority of people don't believe it, the subliminal message is that the Tories are lying and Labour aren't.
And more people will read the Standard front page.
I wonder whether Osbourne has correctly worked out that he has no political future in a 'steady as she goes' political culture which the current Tory party dominates for the foreseeable? Given his position and age the only chance he has of being somehow involved is if the political climate is significantly shaken up.
How about the Scots take all the people who would otherwise move to England from now on? Wonder if the Scots will be so snooty about 'Little Englander-ism' when they are accepting 300,000 inward net per year....
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
It's been almost painful. All the magic that surrounded Theresa when she called the election has been obliterated. The entire exercise has succeeded only in making Jezza look a bit of a star.
"Magic" and "Mrs May" don`r really fit well in the same sentence, Mr Dawning. Unless you have a negative word in there somewhere. She looked good, only because the pollsters kept comparing her with Jeremy Corbyn.
With the scales starting to fall away from the eyes of Conservative voters, it may be that now is the time that they will look for a lifeline towards the Liberal Democrats. I am sure that Mrs Osborne will be doing his best to help.
I think May is competent at the chairmanship and administration of being Prime Minister, and very tough when she needs to be, but not at the oratory or inspiration.
She can be warm and personable, but only if it's on a 1:1 basis. She just can't do crowd-rousing set-piece speeches, debates or high-pressure Q&As. She just gets too nervous, isn't quick enough on her feet, and so she retreats into the empty platitudes of a Typical Politician.
However, she is clearly the better of the two options.
So she wins.
I think this rings true. People tend to conflate being good at communicating with being a good PM. Cameron was good at communicating but if he was such a great PM we wouldn't be going through Brexit. May is clearly crap at communicating but that does not necessarily mean she is a crap PM.
People really can't expect us to believe that an entire parliaments worth of change of opinion has occurred in 3 weeks, it's ludicrous. It's poll following, news agenda following nonsense. She was either never going to win or always has been and will.
Can anyone explain what the difference between a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a normal Monte Carlo simulation?
I know what a Hamiltonian is, at least from a quantum mechanical perspective, and I suppose that it derives from modelling complicated distribution functions. But it would be useful to understand it in the context of an election model.
I am trying to decide how to bet. I've got a little on Con 350-374 seats at 7 [Ladbrokes, and bets below too], and am wondering about backing 375-399, but the price has only gone from 3 to 4 [also, 350-399 can be hedged at just over evens on Betfair].
Another potential bet is backing the Conservatives to be over 370.5 at 1.83.
Or I could just hold onto my current bet. Hmm.
On-topic, my guess agrees with Mr. Meeks', namely the Conservatives being underestimated. The methodology of YouGov might turn out to be courageous (in the true or Yes, Minister sense of the word). Either they or ICM will shortly look silly as a mongoose wearing a fez.
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
When she has a Tory die-hard like yourself questioning her abilities then she is in serious trouble...
To be fair, he's been questioning her abilities since Day One.
He was more perceptive than most then. I thought she had the abilities needed and was a safe pair of hands. I am no longer convinced.
I mentioned earlier that I think Mrs May really hates situations she isn't in control of. She may be somewhat OCPD. If so, she's in the wrong job as a politician. And it doesn't augur well for Brexit negotiations, where it's all about not being in control.
Can anyone explain what the difference between a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a normal Monte Carlo simulation?
I know what a Hamiltonian is, at least from a quantum mechanical perspective, and I suppose that it derives from modelling complicated distribution functions. But it would be useful to understand it in the context of an election model.
Can I put in a plea for those of us who think Monte Carlo is where the Casino is?
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
It's been almost painful. All the magic that surrounded Theresa when she called the election has been obliterated. The entire exercise has succeeded only in making Jezza look a bit of a star.
Was he a star on Womens hour yesterday?
Would have been worse for him if the entire Labour campaign the first fortnight had been 'vote Corbyn, human calculator and superpower memory man"....
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
Ever since the election was announced I kept thinking the real Tory campaign will start soon, here we are with a week to go and I still haven't a clue what they are up to. The Tory campaign has been so utterly useless that they deserve to lose, I think the only thing keeping them in the race is that Corbyn is pure poison to anyone even mildly right-wing. Even Ed Miliband would be beating May, never mind a good leader.
If the Tories do actually win a large majority I will be just as baffled by that as I have been by the popularity of Corbyn, and the failure of "the 48%" to turn up for the Lib Dems. On paper this election should be easy for the Tories, instead they look like they are stuck in the mud.
You have to be careful not to get sucked into the media narrative, before I knew better I used to believe everything I read in the papers and the polls and thought it would be translated to the ground and seats.
Whether the Tories or Labour win is immaterial to me and I could argue why either case might be beneficial to me. I don't think Corbyn has a chance of even becoming largest party never mind an outright majority.
All this talk about wobbles and so forth in the media happens at every election, it is to make the story interesting. If you had seven weeks of Corbyn on the slide and will experience heavy losses, it would be boring. So they create wobbles and tell a story. In the end it shifts very few votes. Most people will end the campaign with the same feeling that May should or should not be PM - some vocal people talk about how they think the publics perception will have changed but it is just talk: how do they know? Do they know everybody's mind?
Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak 55m55 minutes ago More PM on stump - interesting she's been in marginals in SW and Midlands this week rather than labour held areas
The BBC1 1pm News was actually very good for May - main GE story was Lab won't control immigration, Con will.
The problem is that if the majority of people don't believe it, the subliminal message is that the Tories are lying and Labour aren't.
This along with numerous other comments on this state are just plain stupid. How do you know this? Have you read Labours manifesto?
I'm simply commenting on the perception of a non-engaged voter with the capacity to think for themselves. The Conservative government has a track record of not delivering on this, so if they again make the same promise, while Labour don't, it can only tend to increase Labour's credibility, regardless of how barmy the rest of their programme is.
How about the Scots take all the people who would otherwise move to England from now on? Wonder if the Scots will be so snooty about 'Little Englander-ism' when they are accepting 300,000 inward net per year....
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
It's been almost painful. All the magic that surrounded Theresa when she called the election has been obliterated. The entire exercise has succeeded only in making Jezza look a bit of a star.
"Magic" and "Mrs May" don`r really fit well in the same sentence, Mr Dawning. Unless you have a negative word in there somewhere. She looked good, only because the pollsters kept comparing her with Jeremy Corbyn.
With the scales starting to fall away from the eyes of Conservative voters, it may be that now is the time that they will look for a lifeline towards the Liberal Democrats. I am sure that Mrs Osborne will be doing his best to help.
Overwhelmingly those Tory voters want Brexit done before they think about removing the Government. That is probably the only thing saving May at the moment.
Oh, and Labour are still 5 to retake Morley & Outwood with Betfair Sportsbook, current blue majority is under 500 votes. Not certain, by any stretch, but certainly plausible.
Can anyone explain what the difference between a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a normal Monte Carlo simulation?
I know what a Hamiltonian is, at least from a quantum mechanical perspective, and I suppose that it derives from modelling complicated distribution functions. But it would be useful to understand it in the context of an election model.
Going by last weekend, a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulation would be run many times to ensure that Lewis won't start 14th next year.
Last try. You ARE quoting directly off the STV website BUT you have gone down a rabbit hole to the wrong (older) opinion poll (Gives up in frustration, I can do no more :-)
I started here
Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson received a higher satisfaction rating than First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in the survey.
Which you disputed
That is from the current poll, right?
Davidson has a higher Net Satisfaction rating but not a higher Satisfaction rating. The text you've quoted seems to be from the September poll last year.
Mr. Owls, maybe the SW, but the Midlands are prime battleground territory (likewise Lancashire and Yorkshire). Not very surprising, surely, she's been there?
Oh, and Labour are still 5 to retake Morley & Outwood with Betfair Sportsbook, current blue majority is under 500 votes. Not certain, by any stretch, but certainly plausible.
May not going to this debate is the dementia tax MK II. Noone will care that Angus Robertson will be there instead of Nicola Sturgeon, she was happily at the last one. Amber Rudd is going to be relentlessly attacked from all sides - and the more people see of Jez, the more they like him. May could have batted this one out to like she did with Paxo and the audience (She was fine on that), instead she'll be THE story for not turning up.
As my other half put it 'If she can't debate Jeremy Corbyn, how will she debate with the EU' ?
May not going to this debate is the dementia tax MK II. Noone will care that Angus Robertson will be there instead of Nicola Sturgeon, she was happily at the last one. Amber Rudd is going to be relentlessly attacked from all sides - and the more people see of Jez, the more they like him. May could have batted this one out to like she did with Paxo and the audience (She was fine on that), instead she'll be THE story for not turning up.
As my other half put it 'If she can't debate Jeremy Corbyn, how will she debate with the EU' ?
May would have been as equally relentlessly attacked and she isn't any good at such things so its better for someone else to be there...
Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak 55m55 minutes ago More PM on stump - interesting she's been in marginals in SW and Midlands this week rather than labour held areas
That seems very sensible to me. One of Hilary Clinton's faults was that she didn't campaign in the mid-West. Of course, seats like Bath or Plymouth Devonport could be lost. At the same time, there are also a few seats in the SW that could be won.
Campaigning in the West Midlands is plain common sense. There are seats that need to be held there, and seats that can be won.
@PickardJE: Angela Rayner on May: "This prime minister is for turning but not for turning up."
No chance - she says things like ickle for little in radio interviews. It may go down well in a John Prescott kind of way but Prime Minister - I don't think so.
May not going to this debate is the dementia tax MK II. Noone will care that Angus Robertson will be there instead of Nicola Sturgeon, she was happily at the last one. Amber Rudd is going to be relentlessly attacked from all sides - and the more people see of Jez, the more they like him. May could have batted this one out to like she did with Paxo and the audience (She was fine on that), instead she'll be THE story for not turning up.
As my other half put it 'If she can't debate Jeremy Corbyn, how will she debate with the EU' ?
Mr. Owls, maybe the SW, but the Midlands are prime battleground territory (likewise Lancashire and Yorkshire). Not very surprising, surely, she's been there?
I am sceptical at the value in terms of changing votes in seats in respect of a visit, even by a PM. I would concur with you that the Midlands Labour seats are prime targets, something which started with the metro mayor campaign.
The southwest on the other hand is probably just a case of covering base, it would be foolish not to visit there as they may feel taken for granted otherwise. None of the polling has picked up a surge from Tory to LD so the southwest visit does not tally with the narrative of surging Labour as they are going to pick up very little in the southwest and the Lib Dems are struggling.
Oh, and Labour are still 5 to retake Morley & Outwood with Betfair Sportsbook, current blue majority is under 500 votes. Not certain, by any stretch, but certainly plausible.
That's a good bet.
I presume that people expect the 7500 UKIP votes to break for the tories. Only Libdem, Labour and Tory candidates
"Social care wobbles aside, come June 9, our Polling Calibration technique is forecasting a Conservative majority of 103-108. It's time to buy Sterling and sells shares in YouGov."
A week is a long time in politics. I got a very sniffy reaction from pb's Conservatives last Tuesday morning when I suggested that "In a choice between not very good and utterly hopeless, not very good wins by a landslide." The idea that Theresa May is not very good has taken hold very quickly.
The woman second from the right in the picture is the Conservative candidate for East Ham, one Kirsty Finlayson. If they were all in East Ham High Street, that would be different.
On other matters this afternoon:
The Prime Minister's non-appearance in the debate is simple - May needs to be seen to be above the fray, beyond mere party politics, to be the representative of the nation not just of the Conservative Party. If a Prime Minister is in trouble (Brown) or is confident doing debates (Cameron), they can be a huge advantage but if it's not your wicket, don't bat on it.
It would have been fascinating if the Conservatives had agreed to put up candidates against the TMP (the voter split would have been fascinating).
There is still a week to go and for those leading busy lives the election may not really have intruded. It's half term week, people are away, the children have to be entertained, the weather's nice etc. I wouldn't read anything into any polls taken this week - the key ones will be the Tuesday/Wednesday polls next week.
I saw a 1/14 shot turned over at Fontwell the other day but that doesn't often happen. May remains favourite to win and win well and it will require both a) significant abstention from her core supporters and b) significant turnout from Corbyn's supporters for her to fail to win (which in practice means lose).
IF she fails to win a majority, I think she will resign as Conservative leader. That won't lead to a Labour minority Government led by Corbyn but a period of uncertainty until we see who (Johnson I suspect) will be prevailed on to lead the new minority administration (supported presumably by DUP/UUP).
Mr. Nakht, that's correct, however, the Labour candidate (Dawson) is a long-term local councillor which should add to his prospects, and they are actually campaigning here. Could go either way.
Mr. Pulpstar, not so sure. Corbyn turning up suddenly is clever, but also a bit transparent because he'll have been preparing for a while. The media will go all girly and giggly for the debate coverage, not so sure other people will care.
Mr. Observer, not sure May will be there for five years, however this election goes.
Oh, and Labour are still 5 to retake Morley & Outwood with Betfair Sportsbook, current blue majority is under 500 votes. Not certain, by any stretch, but certainly plausible.
That's a good bet.
Have you been there recently? Andrea Jenkin will stack up a comfotrtably increased majority. If there's panic selling I'm buying. My MP in Pudsey had a 400 majority in 2010, as one of the 94 seats Cam won. 2015 that increased to 4,000. This year it will be double that at least.
Comments
She's toast. Absolutely toast if she can't get to Cambridge tonight. Sure the audience will be tiny and a fraction of the Britain Talent audience but word will get round and the news coverage and press will be horrid.
She deserves humiliation next week. Hopeless and frit.
I increasingly think Jez can do a Trump. So to speak...
FFS how many examples of weak and wobbly do you need
Last try. You ARE quoting directly off the STV website BUT you have gone down a rabbit hole to the wrong (older) opinion poll (Gives up in frustration, I can do no more :-)
@PickardJE: Angela Rayner on May: "This prime minister is for turning but not for turning up."
British people swinging behind Corbyn in a mischievous mix of stick it to The Man / don't treat us like idiots / for shits and giggles.
Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson received a higher satisfaction rating than First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in the survey.
Which you disputed
That is from the current poll, right?
She can be warm and personable, but only if it's on a 1:1 basis. She just can't do crowd-rousing set-piece speeches, debates or high-pressure Q&As. She just gets too nervous, isn't quick enough on her feet, and so she retreats into the empty platitudes of a Typical Politician.
However, she is clearly the better of the two options.
So she wins.
Pre-debate this is a win/win for Jezza. May doesn't turn up and it's she's "frit" . Turn up and she's dancing to Jezza's tune. That is the narrative.
If you are looking at +31 for Davidson it is the wrong poll. The website links rather misleadingly to a previous poll.
Corbyn shown answering question saying we have skills shortages, need immigrants to fill them.
She's up against a socialist offering free lunches all round, and the polls have spooked the Tories.
She u-turned on care costs and I don't blame her. Voters don't like being told the scary truth.
But even on her shittest, crappiest, stupidest day, she still has a professional juggernaut of a political party around her. Corbyn, on the other hand, even on his best, most-exquisite, MDMA-filled days, is surrounded by Diane Abbott, Stalinists like Milne and Murray, and violence-touting insurrectionists like McDonnell.... not to mention his 85% of PLP MPs who regard him as dog shit.
Times are tricky. I have kids. I want them to have a future. Corbyn is not the answer.
If the Tories do actually win a large majority I will be just as baffled by that as I have been by the popularity of Corbyn, and the failure of "the 48%" to turn up for the Lib Dems. On paper this election should be easy for the Tories, instead they look like they are stuck in the mud.
Now she is less popular and less trusted than any politician i can ever remember (even Thatcher)
This Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher thing makes the Poll Tax look like A Fluffy Puppy
Announcing at last minute misses that - he just gets one afternoon of that narrative and the debate itself.
Debate audience would also be higher if Corbyn announcement had been earlier.
Ask Kids who they want
She was either never going to win or always has been and will.
Actual is Con +15 so it's a 7 point move.
I wonder whether Osbourne has correctly worked out that he has no political future in a 'steady as she goes' political culture which the current Tory party dominates for the foreseeable? Given his position and age the only chance he has of being somehow involved is if the political climate is significantly shaken up.
https://twitter.com/eleanor4epping/status/869869656785465348
With the scales starting to fall away from the eyes of Conservative voters, it may be that now is the time that they will look for a lifeline towards the Liberal Democrats. I am sure that Mrs Osborne will be doing his best to help.
I know what a Hamiltonian is, at least from a quantum mechanical perspective, and I suppose that it derives from modelling complicated distribution functions. But it would be useful to understand it in the context of an election model.
I am trying to decide how to bet. I've got a little on Con 350-374 seats at 7 [Ladbrokes, and bets below too], and am wondering about backing 375-399, but the price has only gone from 3 to 4 [also, 350-399 can be hedged at just over evens on Betfair].
Another potential bet is backing the Conservatives to be over 370.5 at 1.83.
Or I could just hold onto my current bet. Hmm.
On-topic, my guess agrees with Mr. Meeks', namely the Conservatives being underestimated. The methodology of YouGov might turn out to be courageous (in the true or Yes, Minister sense of the word). Either they or ICM will shortly look silly as a mongoose wearing a fez.
Whether the Tories or Labour win is immaterial to me and I could argue why either case might be beneficial to me. I don't think Corbyn has a chance of even becoming largest party never mind an outright majority.
All this talk about wobbles and so forth in the media happens at every election, it is to make the story interesting. If you had seven weeks of Corbyn on the slide and will experience heavy losses, it would be boring. So they create wobbles and tell a story. In the end it shifts very few votes. Most people will end the campaign with the same feeling that May should or should not be PM - some vocal people talk about how they think the publics perception will have changed but it is just talk: how do they know? Do they know everybody's mind?
More
PM on stump - interesting she's been in marginals in SW and Midlands this week rather than labour held areas
(Sorry, couldn't resist)
Were TMay and co expected to only visit Labour safe seats or something?
At least one member of the Johnson family isn't an opportunist c*** prepared to wreck the country for personal ambition.
Amber Rudd is going to be relentlessly attacked from all sides - and the more people see of Jez, the more they like him.
May could have batted this one out to like she did with Paxo and the audience (She was fine on that), instead she'll be THE story for not turning up.
As my other half put it 'If she can't debate Jeremy Corbyn, how will she debate with the EU' ?
Campaigning in the West Midlands is plain common sense. There are seats that need to be held there, and seats that can be won.
The southwest on the other hand is probably just a case of covering base, it would be foolish not to visit there as they may feel taken for granted otherwise. None of the polling has picked up a surge from Tory to LD so the southwest visit does not tally with the narrative of surging Labour as they are going to pick up very little in the southwest and the Lib Dems are struggling.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougov-pollsters-getting-wrong-theresa-may-still-set-landslide/
The woman second from the right in the picture is the Conservative candidate for East Ham, one Kirsty Finlayson. If they were all in East Ham High Street, that would be different.
On other matters this afternoon:
The Prime Minister's non-appearance in the debate is simple - May needs to be seen to be above the fray, beyond mere party politics, to be the representative of the nation not just of the Conservative Party. If a Prime Minister is in trouble (Brown) or is confident doing debates (Cameron), they can be a huge advantage but if it's not your wicket, don't bat on it.
It would have been fascinating if the Conservatives had agreed to put up candidates against the TMP (the voter split would have been fascinating).
There is still a week to go and for those leading busy lives the election may not really have intruded. It's half term week, people are away, the children have to be entertained, the weather's nice etc. I wouldn't read anything into any polls taken this week - the key ones will be the Tuesday/Wednesday polls next week.
I saw a 1/14 shot turned over at Fontwell the other day but that doesn't often happen. May remains favourite to win and win well and it will require both a) significant abstention from her core supporters and b) significant turnout from Corbyn's supporters for her to fail to win (which in practice means lose).
IF she fails to win a majority, I think she will resign as Conservative leader. That won't lead to a Labour minority Government led by Corbyn but a period of uncertainty until we see who (Johnson I suspect) will be prevailed on to lead the new minority administration (supported presumably by DUP/UUP).
Mr. Pulpstar, not so sure. Corbyn turning up suddenly is clever, but also a bit transparent because he'll have been preparing for a while. The media will go all girly and giggly for the debate coverage, not so sure other people will care.
Mr. Observer, not sure May will be there for five years, however this election goes.