PBers overact to all the slightest twists and turns whereas most of Jo Public only connect to the campaign in small soundbites and broad themes.
The PM deserves to be uncomfortable over this totally unnecessary election coupled with an uninspiring campaign. Fortunately for her the voters will decide that she is the lesser of two evils and give her an undeserved but stonking majority.
Con 380-400 .. Lab 180-200 .. SNP 45-50 .. LibDem 8-12 .. Others 20-22
The Hersham Special One concurs (with added Hear, Hear guffaws) with that prediction as indeed does another eminent psephologist with whom I shared a pub dinner last night!). Tories will be 12-15% ahead in the popular vote with a resulting majority of over 100.
(I'll be out canvassing in Kingston and Surbiton tomorrow evening and will report back).
Report back on Friday .... just factoring in a rail diversion allowance ....
@Computer_999: @MarcherLord1 If I was the PM I'd pull Amber Rudd out of it and have nobody there. That would screw them up. Let them have a Lefty Catfight. Win win
Or it drags him down to the level of Farron and Nuttall as someone unfit to be PM
Opens him to attacks from everyone and on the day his immigration paper is leaked. Maybe too clever by half comes to mind. Should have sent Thornberry who can be very good
Completely agree. Thornberry would have been fine. I appreciate Corbyn was good on the Q&A the other night but I don't think this format will suit him. He needs to protect his own vote and ensure they turnout to make it close, so can't afford more slip ups.
He has already won this battle just by turning up. He just needs to perform adequately.
Your last sentence is the problem. He will be in a hostile environment
It will be interesting to see the strategy of the LDs and Greens tonight. Do they turn their fire on Corbyn or do they try for the progressive alliance pitch? I'm sure Farron will go after Corbyn on Brexit.
May should go to the debate, don't prep for it, and simply give Corbyn both barrels. Show some bloody passion and point out what a disaster a Corbyn led government would be, it's not hard there is a ton of material.
Instead she won't be there, and Corbyn will get away with too much again.
@LordBuckethead: I was not invited to the TV debate, but if I was I would have the grace to RSVP in good time. A great leader always thinks of the caterers.
Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.
A shrewd move by Corbyn. Up to now Labour have played a blinder this election, the Conservatives have been utterly incompetent and the Lib Dems, (who), have not existed. Will this force "Glumbucket" to take part. Mind you whoever there is I will be watching Britains Got Talent, what does that say?
Corbyn has played a blinder. I think it's more chance than design. He is 'winging it' to a certain degree but doing it well (unbelievably).
Have we all forgotten womens hour? If May had been so unprepared how much ridicule would she still be getting on here
Did you just accuse PB of pro Labour bias? *blinks*
Not at all, I am just amazed at the nonense that is currently being written on this site. Corbyn's interview on womens hour was scary bad. finally someone challenged him and he was completely lost. He could not remember the cost of a policy that he had just announced. If May had done that how many posts would still be being written about her ueslessness. In his press conferences he rarely allows questions and when he does he just does not answer them. I think he is mad doing the debate tonight.
Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.
The best result the Tories can hope for is a total stairheid rammy, which they can caption as the coalition of chaos
If i didn't come here i wouldn't know there was so much go on about the election, very little social.media chatter, little party literature, no party signs in windows. No one at work has said a thing since it was announced.
Rudd is actually a good choice IMO, she knows her brief as Home Secretary and the topic of security and protecting the nation could feature heavily in this one. She is actually a better media performer than May and will not be afraid to deliver some crushing blows and can think on her feet (see the EU Ref debate and at Marr at the weekend about Abbott.)
But I am not expecting a great deal from the debate overall, too many parties most of them left wing so we we see the usual gang up on the Tory we always see with these and the debate becomes a real farce.
PBers overact to all the slightest twists and turns whereas most of Jo Public only connect to the campaign in small soundbites and broad themes.
The PM deserves to be uncomfortable over this totally unnecessary election coupled with an uninspiring campaign. Fortunately for her the voters will decide that she is the lesser of two evils and give her an undeserved but stonking majority.
Con 380-400 .. Lab 180-200 .. SNP 45-50 .. LibDem 8-12 .. Others 20-22
The Hersham Special One concurs (with added Hear, Hear guffaws) with that prediction as indeed does another eminent psephologist with whom I shared a pub dinner last night!). Tories will be 12-15% ahead in the popular vote with a resulting majority of over 100.
(I'll be out canvassing in Kingston and Surbiton tomorrow evening and will report back).
Report back on Friday .... just factoring in a rail diversion allowance ....
Fortunately the Bournemouth (bloody awful place) trains don't stop at Surbiton.
So, Mr Corbyn what was it about your double digit deficit in the polls that first attracted you to tonight's debate?
All that attack line does is show how outplayed May has been by Corbyn who has played rope a dope with her and achieved far more publicity for himself than if he had just accepted the initial invite.
That's strong and stable May who was going to kick ass at the EU during the negotiations but instead has been out thought by Corbyn
PBers overact to all the slightest twists and turns whereas most of Jo Public only connect to the campaign in small soundbites and broad themes.
The PM deserves to be uncomfortable over this totally unnecessary election coupled with an uninspiring campaign. Fortunately for her the voters will decide that she is the lesser of two evils and give her an undeserved but stonking majority.
Con 380-400 .. Lab 180-200 .. SNP 45-50 .. LibDem 8-12 .. Others 20-22
The Hersham Special One concurs (with added Hear, Hear guffaws) with that prediction as indeed does another eminent psephologist with whom I shared a pub dinner last night!). Tories will be 12-15% ahead in the popular vote with a resulting majority of over 100.
(I'll be out canvassing in Kingston and Surbiton tomorrow evening and will report back).
Jack - it's good to see you coming out of the long grass and making a forecast of the GE outcome and of course you're allowed to change your numbers over the next 8 days should you so decide. After the 2015 GE you bowed out in a somewhat dejected manner and many PBers will welcome your return to the guesstimating game, for that is after all what this amounts to.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
Nah. It means Corbyn is feeling confident. And he's on the front foot, and attacking. He's having a good campaign and he has nothing to lose. He's also noticed that TMay is awkward and stiff at this stuff, so he wins either way. Either she looks a coward, or he takes her on and makes her look dull and dreary and depressing. Again.
You appear to be warming to Corbyn (NOM?) Sean. You were right earlier when you implied that NOM was the best outcome for the country because it will force a Soft Brexit.
I'm not warming to Corbyn's dreadful foreign politics or his hateful friends and allies or his ghastly past. I am, however, much more sanguine about NOM as there is indeed a big upside - it's much more likely to lead to Soft Brexit, as we have both said.
The resignation of TMay will not concern me. I dislike her style and her worldview. Her ridiculous refusal to take students out of the migration stats is wilfully self harming to this country. Fuck her and her Ed Miliband manifesto.
A NOM outcome virtually guarantees a Labour + SNP Coalition, plus the LibDems probably joining in for good measure ....... is that what you really, really want?
Or a weak Tory minority govt supported by NI politicians and LDs. What price would they extort? Single Market membership. Ulster voted REMAIN
Nah, that wouldn't work and anyway the pro-Tory N.I. numbers are tiny, plus the LibDems, all 1 or 2 Black Cabs full, would never again join in with the Tories - so however you run the numbers, NOM HAS to mean Corbyn as PM with Nicola as his deputy. I'm recording this for all time as being your preferred outcome.
Nicola is not an MP
Nobody is at the moment.
Sturgeon isn't a candidate for a seat at Westminster and it's unlikely she will be invited into the government. The deputy PM could be the SNP's Angus Robertson if he retains his seat in Moray - which if the Tories have a rough night on 8 June he probably will. He was the leader of the SNP group in the outgoing Parliament.
But Corbyn could always appoint Sturgeon to the Lords!
In 2015 Theresa May's constituency didn't declare until 6 in the morning. I'm guessing the local council will be making an effort to do it a bit more quickly this time.
PBers overact to all the slightest twists and turns whereas most of Jo Public only connect to the campaign in small soundbites and broad themes.
The PM deserves to be uncomfortable over this totally unnecessary election coupled with an uninspiring campaign. Fortunately for her the voters will decide that she is the lesser of two evils and give her an undeserved but stonking majority.
Con 380-400 .. Lab 180-200 .. SNP 45-50 .. LibDem 8-12 .. Others 20-22
The Hersham Special One concurs (with added Hear, Hear guffaws) with that prediction as indeed does another eminent psephologist with whom I shared a pub dinner last night!). Tories will be 12-15% ahead in the popular vote with a resulting majority of over 100.
(I'll be out canvassing in Kingston and Surbiton tomorrow evening and will report back).
Report back on Friday .... just factoring in a rail diversion allowance ....
Fortunately the Bournemouth (bloody awful place) trains don't stop at Surbiton.
Rudd is actually a good choice IMO, she knows her brief as Home Secretary and the topic of security and protecting the nation could feature heavily in this one. She is actually a better media performer than May and will not be afraid to deliver some crushing blows and can think on her feet (see the EU Ref debate and at Marr at the weekend about Abbott.)
But I am not expecting a great deal from the debate overall, too many parties most of them left wing so we we see the usual gang upon the Tory we always see with these and the debate becomes a real farce.
She's also a Cheltenham Lady, so a toffette if you please.
Not certain that this is so shrewd. The ITV one was a total bore, Cornyn will be the biggest character there (so will be fair game), and the viewing figures will be poor opposite BGT.
Not at all, I am just amazed at the nonense that is currently being written on this site. Corbyn's interview on womens hour was scary bad. finally someone challenged him and he was completely lost. He could not remember the cost of a policy that he had just announced.
If May can't make Corbyn look like the fool he clearly is she shouldn't be leading the Tories. Beating up Corbyn for an hour or so should be a piece of piss.
My theory is that political leaders do well if they feel like your boss. David Cameron managed that impersonation superbly. Ed Milliband not at all. Nicola Sturgeon, Yup. Theresa May initially looked the part, but is heading rapidly into the boss everyone despises category. Jeremy Corbyn, no, which is why he will lose - nothing to do with the IRA. However on the Womans Hour interview, not knowing your figures is a totally boss like thing. I don't he's harmed by it.
Or it drags him down to the level of Farron and Nuttall as someone unfit to be PM
Opens him to attacks from everyone and on the day his immigration paper is leaked. Maybe too clever by half comes to mind. Should have sent Thornberry who can be very good
Completely agree. Thornberry would have been fine. I appreciate Corbyn was good on the Q&A the other night but I don't think this format will suit him. He needs to protect his own vote and ensure they turnout to make it close, so can't afford more slip ups.
He has already won this battle just by turning up. He just needs to perform adequately.
So how many voters will he win by just turning up and performing adequately when he's 6-14 points behind in the polls? Or do his aspirations lie on keeping the Tories down to a 50 seat majority?
Relax my right wing friend. As you correctly state he's about 6-14 points behind. Just by turning up it will be seen that he's not a coward. Therefore if he performs to par, it will be a big plus for him and maybe reduce the leads by 1-2%. Turning up to the debate is the victory!
@Computer_999: @MarcherLord1 If I was the PM I'd pull Amber Rudd out of it and have nobody there. That would screw them up. Let them have a Lefty Catfight. Win win
There will be a kipper there, no? I know UKIP aren't running everywhere but the Tories would probably rather be the default representatives of the British right, rather than giving up and letting UKIP do it.
A shrewd move by Corbyn. Up to now Labour have played a blinder this election, the Conservatives have been utterly incompetent and the Lib Dems, (who), have not existed. Will this force "Glumbucket" to take part. Mind you whoever there is I will be watching Britains Got Talent, what does that say?
Corbyn has played a blinder. I think it's more chance than design. He is 'winging it' to a certain degree but doing it well (unbelievably).
Have we all forgotten womens hour? If May had been so unprepared how much ridicule would she still be getting on here
There is a certain human quality to "I just don't know" while trying to get the iPad to work. People can relate to that...
I just don't know on a £5 billion policy. But then every labour policy is billions and billions and corporation tax will pay it
Maybe but on the flip side, people are fed up with fear and austerity. It's been great for the rich and powerful as always with the Tories but for everyone else here's some austerity pie! Top that off with a completely hopeless and hapless leader and there you have it. Still think the Tories will win handsomely - they actually deserve to get hammered.
I blame the education system for your abysmal ignorance of the meaning of "Austerity"...
My Corbynite girlfriend suggested the same last night. Negotiate with ISIS. Now she's very young but she's also very smart and speaks spanish and Hindi and yet.. such naivety despite her brains. Beggars belief.
She's also brilliantly pretty and sexy and I will forgive her anything, like an old fool. So there we are.
The West could leave Isis to have its state in parts of Iraq and Syria, in return for Isis leaving the West alone.
I thought ISIS wanted a global Caliphate. Hand them over a couple of states and you equip them with those states' resources to topple a few more. Would Turkey agree to becoming the next?
It seems to me to be impossible to negotiate with ISIS even supposing they could agree on who should represent them. It would be like a mouse trying to negotiate with a cat.
Utterly shocking ... to anyone who is completely ignorant of America's history with these agreements. Exact same thing happened with Kyoto and the Senate would never ratify either Kyoto or Paris.
On Davidson and Sturgeon, you have misread the figures (those you quote are from the previous poll) and, as I have said before, the question is different for each of them. Apples are not oranges.
I have never seen a single opinion poll which showed Davidson was preferred to Sturgeon as FM.
Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.
He is going to be in a pincer movement from Farron and Nuttall, Leanne will call him out on labour's NHS in Wales, and the SNP will be seeking a progressive alliance to defeat the tories.
Amber will lay waste to his security and IRA past
Not a good move by Corbyn but I am pleased he has set himself up like this. Over confidence
There is a basic factor that the "huh Corbyn doesn't know the numbers" argument misses. This isn't a fact election. Its a Hopes and Fears election. The Tories can't lecture on facts having failed to cost their manifesto and done a half u-turn with "we'll set the cap after we win". So the reason why Women's Hour didn't break the Labour campaign is that it doesn't matter.
Forgetting a number is human - as long as the number is there and is costed. Which is is. Treating British Citizens in the appalling way the cuts are doing and then saying TINA vote for us anyway is the inhuman bit. And my sense is that people are a little bit sick of treating their neighbours as the enemy.
Brexit was a vote to reshape the country. That the new shape will be less FU than the current shape shouldn't be a surprise.
Not at all, I am just amazed at the nonense that is currently being written on this site. Corbyn's interview on womens hour was scary bad. finally someone challenged him and he was completely lost. He could not remember the cost of a policy that he had just announced.
If May can't make Corbyn look like the fool he clearly is she shouldn't be leading the Tories. Beating up Corbyn for an hour or so should be a piece of piss.
Well, it isn't. We know he is capable of owning her at PMQs, where even her victories aren't that impressive.
So how many voters will he win by just turning up and performing adequately when he's 6-14 points behind in the polls? Or do his aspirations lie on keeping the Tories down to a 50 seat majority?
Corbyn and Milne are fighting to win. And he'll win far more voters than Theresa May will by being too scared to debate with him.
So, Mr Corbyn what was it about your double digit deficit in the polls that first attracted you to tonight's debate?
"I'm here to present Labour's case on how to protect and improve living conditions in our country, and unlike Mrs May I don't take the voters for granted".
Agree - they should send Thornberry. I know she's pretty disliked on here but she's the best in these kind of forums Labour have. Saw her on Marr a few weeks back and she did well against Fallon.
Thornberry is great. She is by far the most talented MP on the Lab frontbench (I know, I know). And she has a very nice voice.
The way she was traduced over the flags thing was ludicrous. Who would want to live next to a dolt who covers his entire house in flags? It oppressive, and 99% of those who claimed this bloke was a man of the people were hypocrites. They wouldn't much fancy him as a neighbour.
A comment which unfortunately (because I like and admire much of what you ususlly say on here) reveals an utter disconnect with the lives of so many people living on estates around Britain. They would certainly not view the flying of the English or Scottish flag as oppressive or anything to be criticised. Thornberry was crass and stupid and made her whole party appear arrogant and out of touch.
Hi Richard, hope you are well. It wasn't just one flag on a pole though – he covered the front of his home in three bedraggled flags, which just looked stupid. I agree that the metropolitan world I live in is a shade removed from many provincial areas but even so I dare say few people would like to live next to a guy who clearly has no respect for the way his house looks and indeed for his neighbours who have to live next to it.
And you can see similar on housing estates all over the country at various times of year. This really is nothing unusual and is not regarded as such by large swathes of the country. Actually (and unfortunately) in some areas the reverse is the case and kids would be asking why particular houses do not have flags hanging from the windows when a football match or a similar event is on - a view which I will add is even more disturbing and offensive than Thornberry's
So how many voters will he win by just turning up and performing adequately when he's 6-14 points behind in the polls? Or do his aspirations lie on keeping the Tories down to a 50 seat majority?
Corbyn and Milne are fighting to win.
After yesterday's disaster they need to regain the momentum so I understand why he needs to do the debate and get the focus back on him. Corbyn and Milne know full well they cannot win, but they will know they can reclaim the Labour party from the centre with a stronger performance than 2015.
Rudd should accuse Corbyn of not trusting Diane Abbott, because of her recent gaffes, and do we really want that person as Home Secretary? Equally she should say that May trusts her.
Jack - it's good to see you coming out of the long grass and making a forecast of the GE outcome and of course you're allowed to change your numbers over the next 8 days should you so decide. After the 2015 GE you bowed out in a somewhat dejected manner and many PBers will welcome your return to the guesstimating game, for that is after all what this amounts to.
Not so.
I posted very similar numbers a fortnight ago. Neither did I bow out after the 2015 GE, where the ARSE forecast held up very well.
My ARSE retired to the French riviera after the 2016 POTUS as although the share of the vote was accurate, my august organ was trumped by the vagaries of the electoral college.
My ARSE had a damned good run. All good things come to an end .... and what an end it was ....
Thatcher used her poll strength and majorities to move the centre well over to the right. Blair, Cameron and May alike seem preoccupied with following the voters to wherever they happen to be. They dignify this as a sort of tanks-on-lawn strategy but when the Tories start to offer Miliband's manifesto 2 years later you wonder what on earth is the point for us and them of there being parties at all. May is moving left in search of the greatest area under the bell curve but in so doing has started firing at her own troops. WTF does she think she's doing?
If i didn't come here i wouldn't know there was so much go on about the election, very little social.media chatter, little party literature, no party signs in windows. No one at work has said a thing since it was announced.
I've so far seen two Tory posters but both belong to the same farmer One Green One Labour.
That's all.
Small anecdote though: LibDems Target Wrong Constituency.
I live 10 miles from the Welsh border, on the English side. In today's post was a LibDem 'newspaper' for Brecon and Radnor. Don't they know their constituency boundaries?!
My Corbynite girlfriend suggested the same last night. Negotiate with ISIS. Now she's very young but she's also very smart and speaks spanish and Hindi and yet.. such naivety despite her brains. Beggars belief.
She's also brilliantly pretty and sexy and I will forgive her anything, like an old fool. So there we are.
The West could leave Isis to have its state in parts of Iraq and Syria, in return for Isis leaving the West alone.
I thought ISIS wanted a global Caliphate. Hand them over a couple of states and you equip them with those states' resources to topple a few more. Would Turkey agree to becoming the next?
It seems to me to be impossible to negotiate with ISIS even supposing they could agree on who should represent them. It would be like a mouse trying to negotiate with a cat.
Foreign policy should be either moral or pragmatic. Dadge's proposal is neither.
Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.
The best result the Tories can hope for is a total stairheid rammy, which they can caption as the coalition of chaos
I bloody love that. Say what you like about the Union, no one could accuse the Scots of not enriching the language.
My theory is that political leaders do well if they feel like your boss. David Cameron managed that impersonation superbly. Ed Milliband not at all. Nicola Sturgeon, Yup. Theresa May initially looked the part, but is heading rapidly into the boss everyone despises category. Jeremy Corbyn, no, which is why he will lose - nothing to do with the IRA. However on the Womans Hour interview, not knowing your figures is a totally boss like thing. I don't he's harmed by it.
My wife - Northern Ireland prod - who has hated Corbyn since he first became leader, said she was tempted to vote for him after Women's Hour out of sympathy, since in the grand scheme of things temporarily forgetting your numbers is understandable. She'd also heard the line that the Tories hadn't even bothered to cost their manifesto and that seemed to be a big argument in Labour's favour. In 2010 she voted LD and 2015 Tory. Possibly she was joking but she's been that wound up by May that it wouldn't surprise me.
Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.
He is going to be in a pincer movement from Farron and Nuttall, Leanne will call him out on labour's NHS in Wales, and the SNP will be seeking a progressive alliance to defeat the tories.
Amber will lay waste to his security and IRA past
Not a good move by Corbyn but I am pleased he has set himself up like this. Over confidence
Not certain that this is so shrewd. The ITV one was a total bore, Cornyn will be the biggest character there (so will be fair game), and the viewing figures will be poor opposite BGT.
I suspect the story of the debate will not be what was said but that Theresa May didn't bother to attend.
Rudd should accuse Corbyn of not trusting Diane Abbott, because of her recent gaffes, and do we really want that person as Home Secretary? Equally she should say that May trusts her.
How successfully that could be spun remains to be seen but I would agree and there is precedent there for Corbyn not getting on or trusting his MP's.
Rudd can be formidable and can think on her feet probably better than May can. She can get a bit shouty at times though.
Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.
He is going to be in a pincer movement from Farron and Nuttall, Leanne will call him out on labour's NHS in Wales, and the SNP will be seeking a progressive alliance to defeat the tories.
Amber will lay waste to his security and IRA past
Not a good move by Corbyn but I am pleased he has set himself up like this. Over confidence
But everyone will be condemning the aloof, fragile PM.
A shrewd move by Corbyn. Up to now Labour have played a blinder this election, the Conservatives have been utterly incompetent and the Lib Dems, (who), have not existed. Will this force "Glumbucket" to take part. Mind you whoever there is I will be watching Britains Got Talent, what does that say?
Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.
There has got to be a significant chance it will go wrong for him though. He couldn't cope with a bit of prodding on detail yesterday on woman's hour. And he really isn't used to a lefty crowd who think he is wrong. There has got to be a great opportunity for Rudd to interject about a coalition of chaos, when they all seem to be disagreeing. And will he have practised, does he know the format, will his rambling style mean he is cut off mid sentence. You can bet the other participants have been practicing.
I'm not sure I see too much upside, I mean it's not that embarrassing, as they both refused for the last 6 weeks.
Rudd should accuse Corbyn of not trusting Diane Abbott, because of her recent gaffes, and do we really want that person as Home Secretary? Equally she should say that May trusts her.
If May can't make Corbyn look like the fool he clearly is she shouldn't be leading the Tories. Beating up Corbyn for an hour or so should be a piece of piss.
If Corbyn becomes prime minister next month, will you still think he's a fool?
The Tories can't win by beating people up. This isn't a "give the wet a kicking" show, as if the country were a private boarding school or we were all in "Lord of the Flies". They called this election and they have to show why people should vote for them, and they're doing crap.
In 2015 Theresa May's constituency didn't declare until 6 in the morning. I'm guessing the local council will be making an effort to do it a bit more quickly this time.
Declarations ought to be faster this time round as there are no local elections.
Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.
He is going to be in a pincer movement from Farron and Nuttall, Leanne will call him out on labour's NHS in Wales, and the SNP will be seeking a progressive alliance to defeat the tories.
Amber will lay waste to his security and IRA past
Not a good move by Corbyn but I am pleased he has set himself up like this. Over confidence
Indeed, he probably has not prepared for it either. This is why it is stupid to accept the invitation now for him. May might be criticised for not suddenly changing her mind and showing up but would be stupid to do so at such a late stage without prep.
I also think that Corbyn going instead of say Abbott shows Labour have no team capable of supporting him in office.
Thatcher used her poll strength and majorities to move the centre well over to the right. Blair, Cameron and May alike seem preoccupied with following the voters to wherever they happen to be. They dignify this as a sort of tanks-on-lawn strategy but when the Tories start to offer Miliband's manifesto 2 years later you wonder what on earth is the point for us and them of there being parties at all. May is moving left in search of the greatest area under the bell curve but in so doing has started firing at her own troops. WTF does she think she's doing?
She has ballsed up. May called an election with essentially no idea what to do with the manifesto and campaign, no plan for Brexit, and no view of where the country should be going. May has let Corbyn become the centre of attention with inadequate scrutiny and challenges from the Tories. She is ducking debating the worst person Labour has chosen as a leader in its history.
Why the hell does May even want to be PM when she appears to have no idea what to do and dislikes what the job entails?
If i didn't come here i wouldn't know there was so much go on about the election, very little social.media chatter, little party literature, no party signs in windows. No one at work has said a thing since it was announced.
I've so far seen two Tory posters but both belong to the same farmer One Green One Labour.
That's all.
Small anecdote though: LibDems Target Wrong Constituency.
I live 10 miles from the Welsh border, on the English side. In today's post was a LibDem 'newspaper' for Brecon and Radnor. Don't they know their constituency boundaries?!
My partner got an email from the Lib Dems about her voting for them in the GE, she cannot vote in GE's as she is an EU citizen.
Thatcher used her poll strength and majorities to move the centre well over to the right. Blair, Cameron and May alike seem preoccupied with following the voters to wherever they happen to be. They dignify this as a sort of tanks-on-lawn strategy but when the Tories start to offer Miliband's manifesto 2 years later you wonder what on earth is the point for us and them of there being parties at all. May is moving left in search of the greatest area under the bell curve but in so doing has started firing at her own troops. WTF does she think she's doing?
This debate could be like Miliband's Russell Brand moment. Internal polling panicked Miliband into gimmicks such as Brand and the big rock thing. Could Corbyn be getting similarly poor polling?
am surprised the tories havent really mentioned this campaign the PLP revolt last year and the fact that his own MPs have no confidence in him as leader
Or it drags him down to the level of Farron and Nuttall as someone unfit to be PM
Opens him to attacks from everyone and on the day his immigration paper is leaked. Maybe too clever by half comes to mind. Should have sent Thornberry who can be very good
Completely agree. Thornberry would have been fine. I appreciate Corbyn was good on the Q&A the other night but I don't think this format will suit him. He needs to protect his own vote and ensure they turnout to make it close, so can't afford more slip ups.
Corbyn is going shit or bust. To have sent a proxy would have made this debate a "no change" event. By going himself he's suddenly put a massive focus on it and gives it huge import. IF he does well then psychologically this is a big blow.
If May can't make Corbyn look like the fool he clearly is she shouldn't be leading the Tories. Beating up Corbyn for an hour or so should be a piece of piss.
If Corbyn becomes prime minister next month, will you still think he's a fool?
Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.
He is going to be in a pincer movement from Farron and Nuttall, Leanne will call him out on labour's NHS in Wales, and the SNP will be seeking a progressive alliance to defeat the tories.
Amber will lay waste to his security and IRA past
Not a good move by Corbyn but I am pleased he has set himself up like this. Over confidence
Indeed, he probably has not prepared for it either.
You're joking, right?! You're underestimating Jeremy and Seumas. This was almost certainly planned.
Thinking about increasing my investment in the Tories failing to win a majority. (I.e. in Betfair terms failing to make it to 326 seats.)
Thatcher used her poll strength and majorities to move the centre well over to the right. Blair, Cameron and May alike seem preoccupied with following the voters to wherever they happen to be. They dignify this as a sort of tanks-on-lawn strategy but when the Tories start to offer Miliband's manifesto 2 years later you wonder what on earth is the point for us and them of there being parties at all. May is moving left in search of the greatest area under the bell curve but in so doing has started firing at her own troops. WTF does she think she's doing?
She has ballsed up. May called an election with essentially no idea what to do with the manifesto and campaign, no plan for Brexit, and no view of where the country should be going. May has let Corbyn become the centre of attention with inadequate scrutiny and challenges from the Tories. She is ducking debating the worst person Labour has chosen as a leader in its history.
Why the hell does May even want to be PM when she appears to have no idea what to do and dislikes what the job entails?
She put out a manifesto that wasn't a Tory one, god only knows why she did I can only assume she thought talk of 100 plus majority's being nailed on made her advisers and May herself feel that could take some gambles.
Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.
The best result the Tories can hope for is a total stairheid rammy, which they can caption as the coalition of chaos
I bloody love that. Say what you like about the Union, no one could accuse the Scots of not enriching the language.
I heard the expression 'bit of a stooshie' used by one of my team for the first time ever the other day. I quite like it. Not sure where to place stooshie vs rammy on the scale for arguments now.
@Computer_999: @MarcherLord1 If I was the PM I'd pull Amber Rudd out of it and have nobody there. That would screw them up. Let them have a Lefty Catfight. Win win
If i didn't come here i wouldn't know there was so much go on about the election, very little social.media chatter, little party literature, no party signs in windows. No one at work has said a thing since it was announced.
I've so far seen two Tory posters but both belong to the same farmer One Green One Labour.
That's all.
Small anecdote though: LibDems Target Wrong Constituency.
I live 10 miles from the Welsh border, on the English side. In today's post was a LibDem 'newspaper' for Brecon and Radnor. Don't they know their constituency boundaries?!
My partner got an email from the Lib Dems about her voting for them in the GE, she cannot vote in GE's as she is an EU citizen.
In all the GE's in our area I cannot remember any with so few posters and boards. Nothing in peoples windows for anyone, one large sign for Guto Bebb on a farmers gate and nothing else.
Virtually nil through letter box but lots of personal e mails from Theresa, Boris, Patrick etc
On Davidson and Sturgeon, you have misread the figures (those you quote are from the previous poll) and, as I have said before, the question is different for each of them. Apples are not oranges.
I have never seen a single opinion poll which showed Davidson was preferred to Sturgeon as FM.
While a majority of Scots (54%) remain satisfied with with the Nationalist leader she also attracts a high dissatisfaction score - 40% of Scots report themselves unhappy with her performance as First Minister.
This represents a fall in net satisfaction in Sturgeon of 22 points on April.
Opposition leader Ruth Davidson, who took her party from third to second place and more than doubled her seat tally at May's Holyrood election, beat the First Minister in both the satisfaction and net satisfaction stakes.
The Edinburgh Central MSP is doing a good job according to 55% of Scots and enjoys a net satisfaction rating of +31. Only 24% declare themselves dissatisfied with Davidson's performance.
This debate could be like Miliband's Russell Brand moment. Internal polling panicked Miliband into gimmicks such as Brand and the big rock thing. Could Corbyn be getting similarly poor polling?
A change of heart like this smacks of Nothing To Lose.....
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
Nah. It means Corbyn is feeling confident. And he's on the front foot, and attacking. He's having a good campaign and he has nothing to lose. He's also noticed that TMay is awkward and stiff at this stuff, so he wins either way. Either she looks a coward, or he takes her on and makes her look dull and dreary and depressing. Again.
Given she did the Paxman I don't think she looks as much of a 'coward', add in the fact the SNP leader isn't there and it looks like a fairly low rating affair. If of course Rudd comes out more impressively then people will thing if he can't best the home secretary then he isn't fit to be a leader.
"If of course Rudd comes out more impressively"...
If May can't make Corbyn look like the fool he clearly is she shouldn't be leading the Tories. Beating up Corbyn for an hour or so should be a piece of piss.
If Corbyn becomes prime minister next month, will you still think he's a fool?
The Tories can't win by beating people up. This isn't a "give the wet a kicking" show, as if the country were a private boarding school or we were all in "Lord of the Flies". They called this election and they have to show why people should vote for them, and they're doing crap.
This country will become a lot less safer and a lot poorer very quickly. He's an extremely dangerous individual.
This debate could be like Miliband's Russell Brand moment. Internal polling panicked Miliband into gimmicks such as Brand and the big rock thing. Could Corbyn be getting similarly poor polling?
He's been getting polling worse than Miliband's ever since he became leader. I doubt he's panicking since he probably never expected to win in the first place, but he's clearly losing, so it makes sense for him to roll the dice.
PS. Appearing in the scheduled leader's debate isn't a gimmick.
We are a week away from handing the most important negotiations in generations to Corbyn and May won't engage in a debate. I find it astonishing. She has to roll the dice.
am surprised the tories havent really mentioned this campaign the PLP revolt last year and the fact that his own MPs have no confidence in him as leader
You may not have noticed but the Tory campaign has been useless. Stuff like that is precisely why any half-decent Tory leader would lick their lips with anticipation of giving Corbyn a verbal kicking.
Jack - it's good to see you coming out of the long grass and making a forecast of the GE outcome and of course you're allowed to change your numbers over the next 8 days should you so decide. After the 2015 GE you bowed out in a somewhat dejected manner and many PBers will welcome your return to the guesstimating game, for that is after all what this amounts to.
Not so.
I posted very similar numbers a fortnight ago. Neither did I bow out after the 2015 GE, where the ARSE forecast held up very well.
My ARSE retired to the French riviera after the 2016 POTUS as although the share of the vote was accurate, my august organ was trumped by the vagaries of the electoral college.
My ARSE had a damned good run. All good things come to an end .... and what an end it was ....
Thank you for correcting me Jack and apologies for confusing the POTUS elections with our own 2015 GE. I missed your forecast here of a fortnight ago, but my sentiment remains the same - it's good to have you back since many of us have profited significantly as a result of your accurate political predictions..
Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.
He is going to be in a pincer movement from Farron and Nuttall, Leanne will call him out on labour's NHS in Wales, and the SNP will be seeking a progressive alliance to defeat the tories.
Amber will lay waste to his security and IRA past
Not a good move by Corbyn but I am pleased he has set himself up like this. Over confidence
Indeed, he probably has not prepared for it either.
You're joking, right?! You're underestimating Jeremy and Seumas. This was almost certainly planned.
Thinking about increasing my investment in the Tories failing to win a majority. (I.e. in Betfair terms failing to make it to 326 seats.)
May Is Crap Loses the Election. MICLTE.
Yes, Corbyn is always well prepared, not knowing the cost of his child care proposals was actually the act of a strategic genius. Corbyn is making it up as he goes along, anyone can see that.
Comments
Did the survey ask if the Scots would prefer Davidson to Sturgeon as FM-THOUGHT NOT :-)
Instead she won't be there, and Corbyn will get away with too much again.
But I am not expecting a great deal from the debate overall, too many parties most of them left wing so we we see the usual gang up on the Tory we always see with these and the debate becomes a real farce.
That's strong and stable May who was going to kick ass at the EU during the negotiations but instead has been out thought by Corbyn
But Corbyn could always appoint Sturgeon to the Lords!
It seems to me to be impossible to negotiate with ISIS even supposing they could agree on who should represent them. It would be like a mouse trying to negotiate with a cat.
On Davidson and Sturgeon, you have misread the figures (those you quote are from the previous poll) and, as I have said before, the question is different for each of them. Apples are not oranges.
I have never seen a single opinion poll which showed Davidson was preferred to Sturgeon as FM.
Amber will lay waste to his security and IRA past
Not a good move by Corbyn but I am pleased he has set himself up like this. Over confidence
Forgetting a number is human - as long as the number is there and is costed. Which is is. Treating British Citizens in the appalling way the cuts are doing and then saying TINA vote for us anyway is the inhuman bit. And my sense is that people are a little bit sick of treating their neighbours as the enemy.
Brexit was a vote to reshape the country. That the new shape will be less FU than the current shape shouldn't be a surprise.
I posted very similar numbers a fortnight ago. Neither did I bow out after the 2015 GE, where the ARSE forecast held up very well.
My ARSE retired to the French riviera after the 2016 POTUS as although the share of the vote was accurate, my august organ was trumped by the vagaries of the electoral college.
My ARSE had a damned good run. All good things come to an end .... and what an end it was ....
Thatcher used her poll strength and majorities to move the centre well over to the right. Blair, Cameron and May alike seem preoccupied with following the voters to wherever they happen to be. They dignify this as a sort of tanks-on-lawn strategy but when the Tories start to offer Miliband's manifesto 2 years later you wonder what on earth is the point for us and them of there being parties at all. May is moving left in search of the greatest area under the bell curve but in so doing has started firing at her own troops. WTF does she think she's doing?
One Green
One Labour.
That's all.
Small anecdote though: LibDems Target Wrong Constituency.
I live 10 miles from the Welsh border, on the English side. In today's post was a LibDem 'newspaper' for Brecon and Radnor. Don't they know their constituency boundaries?!
Rudd can be formidable and can think on her feet probably better than May can. She can get a bit shouty at times though.
I'm not sure I see too much upside, I mean it's not that embarrassing, as they both refused for the last 6 weeks.
The Tories can't win by beating people up. This isn't a "give the wet a kicking" show, as if the country were a private boarding school or we were all in "Lord of the Flies". They called this election and they have to show why people should vote for them, and they're doing crap.
I also think that Corbyn going instead of say Abbott shows Labour have no team capable of supporting him in office.
Why the hell does May even want to be PM when she appears to have no idea what to do and dislikes what the job entails?
The most Googled spellings by US state:
Alabama: pneumonia
Alaska: schedule
Arizona: tomorrow
Arkansas: chihuahua
California: beautiful
Colorado: tomorrow
Connecticut: supercalifragilisticexpialidocious
Delaware: hallelujah
Washington, D.C.: ninety
Florida: receipt
Georgia: gray
Hawaii: people
Idaho: quote
Illinois: pneumonia
Indiana: hallelujah
Iowa: vacuum
Kansas: diamond
Kentucky: beautiful
Louisiana: giraffe
Maine: pneumonia
Maryland: special
Massachusetts: license
Michigan: pneumonia
Minnesota: beautiful
Mississippi: nanny
Missouri: maintenance
Montana: surprise
Nebraska: suspicious
Nevada: available
New Hampshire: difficult
New Jersey: twelve
New Mexico: bananas
New York: beautiful
North Carolina: angel
North Dakota: dilemma
Ohio: beautiful
Oklahoma: patient
Oregon: sense
Pennsylvania: sauerkraut
Rhode Island: liar
South Carolina: chihuahua
South Dakota: college
Tennessee: chaos
Texas: maintenance
Utah: disease
Vermont: Europe
Virginia: delicious
Washington: pneumonia
West Virginia: supercalifragilisticexpialidocious
Wisconsin: Wisconsin
Wyoming: priority
I wonder if a constituency breakdown would help clarify how they will vote
Thinking about increasing my investment in the Tories failing to win a majority. (I.e. in Betfair terms failing to make it to 326 seats.)
May Is Crap Loses The Election. MICLTE.
Virtually nil through letter box but lots of personal e mails from Theresa, Boris, Patrick etc
The precise opposite of Major's strategy in 1992 when things briefly looked a bit dicky.
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/869876085885992961
This represents a fall in net satisfaction in Sturgeon of 22 points on April.
Opposition leader Ruth Davidson, who took her party from third to second place and more than doubled her seat tally at May's Holyrood election, beat the First Minister in both the satisfaction and net satisfaction stakes.
The Edinburgh Central MSP is doing a good job according to 55% of Scots and enjoys a net satisfaction rating of +31. Only 24% declare themselves dissatisfied with Davidson's performance.
I think that's a long shot with Amber!
PS. Appearing in the scheduled leader's debate isn't a gimmick.