A shrewd move by Corbyn. Up to now Labour have played a blinder this election, the Conservatives have been utterly incompetent and the Lib Dems, (who), have not existed. Will this force "Glumbucket" to take part. Mind you whoever there is I will be watching Britains Got Talent, what does that say?
Or it drags him down to the level of Farron and Nuttall as someone unfit to be PM
Opens him to attacks from everyone and on the day his immigration paper is leaked. Maybe too clever by half comes to mind. Should have sent Thornberry who can be very good
A shrewd move by Corbyn. Up to now Labour have played a blinder this election, the Conservatives have been utterly incompetent and the Lib Dems, (who), have not existed. Will this force "Glumbucket" to take part. Mind you whoever there is I will be watching Britains Got Talent, what does that say?
Corbyn has played a blinder. I think it's more chance than design. He is 'winging it' to a certain degree but doing it well (unbelievably).
So why did it not help Miliband 2 years ago? If no one stands head and shoulders above others then the only winners of the exercise are those not present who look Prime Ministerial in their absence. Corbyn needs to win that debate big and he'll get attacked from all sides.
So why did it not help Miliband 2 years ago? If no one stands head and shoulders above others then the only winners of the exercise are those not present who look Prime Ministerial in their absence. Corbyn needs to win that debate big and he'll get attacked from all sides.
This is a bit different. Cameron did the seven way debate. The one you're thinking of is the five way debate which Cameron and Clegg sat out for reasons I can't remember.
Panelbase say their poll follows a change in methodology - would have seen a 6% narrowing like for like. They say it's a Sunday times poll - maybe the paper decided not to publish?
Includes rough & ready Scotland assumption of 30/20/40 Con/Lab/SNP - otherwise SNP stay on 56 which is probably unlikely (as is 46 which is almost certainly too low) - have a go yourself:
Or it drags him down to the level of Farron and Nuttall as someone unfit to be PM
Opens him to attacks from everyone and on the day his immigration paper is leaked. Maybe too clever by half comes to mind. Should have sent Thornberry who can be very good
Completely agree. Thornberry would have been fine. I appreciate Corbyn was good on the Q&A the other night but I don't think this format will suit him. He needs to protect his own vote and ensure they turnout to make it close, so can't afford more slip ups.
Jezz appears to be enjoying himself, while Theresa palpably isn't. Normally that wouldn't worry me - you don't do politics to have a good time - but we saw with Trump that enthusiasm can be contagious. And we saw with Brexit that voters will throw 'sensible' to the winds and just have fun. Could he, might he ... ?
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
Nah. It means Corbyn is feeling confident. And he's on the front foot, and attacking. He's having a good campaign and he has nothing to lose. He's also noticed that TMay is awkward and stiff at this stuff, so he wins either way. Either she looks a coward, or he takes her on and makes her look dull and dreary and depressing. Again.
You appear to be warming to Corbyn (NOM?) Sean. You were right earlier when you implied that NOM was the best outcome for the country because it will force a Soft Brexit.
I'm not warming to Corbyn's dreadful foreign politics or his hateful friends and allies or his ghastly past. I am, however, much more sanguine about NOM as there is indeed a big upside - it's much more likely to lead to Soft Brexit, as we have both said.
The resignation of TMay will not concern me. I dislike her style and her worldview. Her ridiculous refusal to take students out of the migration stats is wilfully self harming to this country. Fuck her and her Ed Miliband manifesto.
A NOM outcome virtually guarantees a Labour + SNP Coalition, plus the LibDems probably joining in for good measure ....... is that what you really, really want?
Or it drags him down to the level of Farron and Nuttall as someone unfit to be PM
Opens him to attacks from everyone and on the day his immigration paper is leaked. Maybe too clever by half comes to mind. Should have sent Thornberry who can be very good
Woody Allen said that 80 % of success in life was showing up. May has failed.
May should obviously get in there with Corbyn this evening.. Being perceived as frit is the worse of two bad options for her
I think so too. Amber Rudd may be great and score some real hits, but the response to every one of them will be, "Why should we listen to you? You're just a stooge because your boss was too afraid to meet the public." Theresa May needs to make her own case.
It seems to me that the YouGov seat modelling has simply served to obfuscate a rather simple point: just look at their headline vote intention figures:
Con 42 Lab 38 LD 9 UKIP 4
On those figures, of course we would expect a result which is not necessarily to the advantage of Theresa May. Never mind YouGov's 'complex model', just stick the figures into Martin Baxter's simple model, and you'll get a result fairly similar to that produced by YouGov's pointy-heads.
So, in essence, this is simply a poll showing a smaller lead than most other pollsters have been finding, although it's not very different from the 6% lead in the two recent polls from Survation and ORB. More generally, YouGov seem consistently to have been showing smaller leads than other pollsters recently. Overall, we have three pollsters indicating a lead of 4% to 6%, two (ICM and ComRes) in the range 12% to 14%, and two (SurveyMonkey and Opinium) in between.
Could the lower end of those ranges turn out to be accurate? That can't be ruled out, although anecdotal, supplementary and canvassing seem generally to point to a higher figure.
A shrewd move by Corbyn. Up to now Labour have played a blinder this election, the Conservatives have been utterly incompetent and the Lib Dems, (who), have not existed. Will this force "Glumbucket" to take part. Mind you whoever there is I will be watching Britains Got Talent, what does that say?
Corbyn has played a blinder. I think it's more chance than design. He is 'winging it' to a certain degree but doing it well (unbelievably).
Have we all forgotten womens hour? If May had been so unprepared how much ridicule would she still be getting on here
The reality is the debates do not make a difference in elections.
Cleggasm wasn't real in the end. The debates didn't help Miliband either.
Most voters will not sit down for more than an hour on a week day to watch politicians debate especially when Britain's Got Talent is on.
This is of course largely true. The soundbites on the news (which get larger viewing figures) might affect voters a bit though. It just gives the PB community something to discuss though!
The reality is the debates do not make a difference in elections.
Cleggasm wasn't real in the end. The debates didn't help Miliband either.
Most voters will not sit down for more than an hour on a week day to watch politicians debate especially when Britain's Got Talent is on.
But that does mean they will be influenced by the headlines afterwards rather than the content (which in fact is what happened in 2010 - people who actually watched the debates were less impressed with Clegg than people who heard or read about it later).
And the most prominent headline will be that Corbyn was there and May wasn't. It's not a good look.
So why did it not help Miliband 2 years ago? If no one stands head and shoulders above others then the only winners of the exercise are those not present who look Prime Ministerial in their absence. Corbyn needs to win that debate big and he'll get attacked from all sides.
The best strategy for the small Leftie parties is to soft pedal on Labour, as they are best placed with a NOM.
The reality is the debates do not make a difference in elections.
Cleggasm wasn't real in the end. The debates didn't help Miliband either.
Most voters will not sit down for more than an hour on a week day to watch politicians debate especially when Britain's Got Talent is on.
This is of course largely true. The soundbites on the news (which get larger viewing figures) might affect voters a bit though. It just gives the PB community something to discuss though!
This place has been hysterical for more than a week now.
Glad to see Angus Robertson there at 7.30 pm in the debate with Corbyn and co tonight at the BBC.
Robertson has improved out of sight (he was never bad) since he has been able to ask 2 questions at PMQs since 2015.
The extra exposure, which if Corbyn really does turn up tonight as stated should be substantial, should make sure he retains Moray (bang goes one of the 6 Tory gains predicted by IPSOs Mori/STV) .
So why did it not help Miliband 2 years ago? If no one stands head and shoulders above others then the only winners of the exercise are those not present who look Prime Ministerial in their absence. Corbyn needs to win that debate big and he'll get attacked from all sides.
The best strategy for the small Leftie parties is to soft pedal on Labour, as they are best placed with a NOM.
Alternatively they won't have any MPs if the Labour surge happens, so best off showing Corbyn isnt the messiah.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
Nah. It means Corbyn is feeling confident. And he's on the front foot, and attacking. He's having a good campaign and he has nothing to lose. He's also noticed that TMay is awkward and stiff at this stuff, so he wins either way. Either she looks a coward, or he takes her on and makes her look dull and dreary and depressing. Again.
You appear to be warming to Corbyn (NOM?) Sean. You were right earlier when you implied that NOM was the best outcome for the country because it will force a Soft Brexit.
I'm not warming to Corbyn's dreadful foreign politics or his hateful friends and allies or his ghastly past. I am, however, much more sanguine about NOM as there is indeed a big upside - it's much more likely to lead to Soft Brexit, as we have both said.
The resignation of TMay will not concern me. I dislike her style and her worldview. Her ridiculous refusal to take students out of the migration stats is wilfully self harming to this country. Fuck her and her Ed Miliband manifesto.
She seems to choose the exact elements of statism which piss off liberal lefties and libertarian righties equally. Illiberal in the curtain twitching sense of the word. At least she gives you and your girlfriend something to agree upon!
PBers overact to all the slightest twists and turns whereas most of Jo Public only connect to the campaign in small soundbites and broad themes.
The PM deserves to be uncomfortable over this totally unnecessary election coupled with an uninspiring campaign. Fortunately for her the voters will decide that she is the lesser of two evils and give her an undeserved but stonking majority.
Con 380-400 .. Lab 180-200 .. SNP 45-50 .. LibDem 8-12 .. Others 20-22
@JGForsyth: Chance for Amber Rudd tonight to go down in Tory folklore as the person who broke Corbyn’s momentum & ended the campaign wobble ½
@JGForsyth: Suspect polls will swing back to the Tories in the coming days anyway, and Westminster will be inclined to attribute that to the debate 2/2
Agree - they should send Thornberry. I know she's pretty disliked on here but she's the best in these kind of forums Labour have. Saw her on Marr a few weeks back and she did well against Fallon.
Thornberry is great. She is by far the most talented MP on the Lab frontbench (I know, I know). And she has a very nice voice.
The way she was traduced over the flags thing was ludicrous. Who would want to live next to a dolt who covers his entire house in flags? It oppressive, and 99% of those who claimed this bloke was a man of the people were hypocrites. They wouldn't much fancy him as a neighbour.
A comment which unfortunately (because I like and admire much of what you ususlly say on here) reveals an utter disconnect with the lives of so many people living on estates around Britain. They would certainly not view the flying of the English or Scottish flag as oppressive or anything to be criticised. Thornberry was crass and stupid and made her whole party appear arrogant and out of touch.
The reality is the debates do not make a difference in elections.
Cleggasm wasn't real in the end. The debates didn't help Miliband either.
Most voters will not sit down for more than an hour on a week day to watch politicians debate especially when Britain's Got Talent is on.
This is of course largely true. The soundbites on the news (which get larger viewing figures) might affect voters a bit though. It just gives the PB community something to discuss though!
This place has been hysterical for more than a week now.
May should obviously get in there with Corbyn this evening.. Being perceived as frit is the worse of two bad options for her
But she's really really awkward and painful and oddly inarticulate, when it comes to this stuff. And she knows it. Hence her refusal.
She hates not being in control. Possibly OCPD. If so, she is in the wrong job as a politician. And absolutely the wrong person to lead Brexit, which as we know is all about NOT being in control.
Part of me wonders if Jezza has played Theresa here. Originally saying 'if she's not coming nor am I' knowing he'd change last minute and leave her looking frit. The larger part of me thinks he isn't smart enough to do that and is just winging it. Albeit winging it reasonably successfully.
The reality is the debates do not make a difference in elections.
Cleggasm wasn't real in the end. The debates didn't help Miliband either.
Most voters will not sit down for more than an hour on a week day to watch politicians debate especially when Britain's Got Talent is on.
But that does mean they will be influenced by the headlines afterwards rather than the content (which in fact is what happened in 2010 - people who actually watched the debates were less impressed with Clegg than people who heard or read about it later).
And the most prominent headline will be that Corbyn was there and May wasn't. It's not a good look.
Corbyn actually did well on Monday and yet the headlines were negative about him. So I wouldn't bet on tonight producing positive headlines for him.
On the debate and the polls; don't forget it's half term!
On the thread; people might want to have a look at Lancaster as a Labour hold. I got on at 6's yesterday. There's a lot of red around the city and the University is still in term.
Amber Rudd was very strong in the EU-referendum debates. She was fierce and rather scary. This might play well against Jeremy. In any case, she will certainly do a better job than May.
I really think the Tories are paying now for the coronation of May last year. She has no experience of having to pitch herself to the public to get them to like her. Muttering a few cliches can only take you so far when you are dull and inarticulate.
Part of me wonders if Jezza has played Theresa here. Originally saying 'if she's not coming nor am I' knowing he'd change last minute and leave her looking frit. The larger part of me thinks he isn't smart enough to do that and is just winging it. Albeit winging it reasonably successfully.
There must be *some* reason he left the announcement to the last minute...
A shrewd move by Corbyn. Up to now Labour have played a blinder this election, the Conservatives have been utterly incompetent and the Lib Dems, (who), have not existed. Will this force "Glumbucket" to take part. Mind you whoever there is I will be watching Britains Got Talent, what does that say?
Corbyn has played a blinder. I think it's more chance than design. He is 'winging it' to a certain degree but doing it well (unbelievably).
Have we all forgotten womens hour? If May had been so unprepared how much ridicule would she still be getting on here
There is a certain human quality to "I just don't know" while trying to get the iPad to work. People can relate to that...
So why did it not help Miliband 2 years ago? If no one stands head and shoulders above others then the only winners of the exercise are those not present who look Prime Ministerial in their absence. Corbyn needs to win that debate big and he'll get attacked from all sides.
Campaigns and debates are a very important strand in a general election but they are trumped by one other factor. For the non-governing party does their contender appear to be a PM in waiting and at least as competent and preferably better than the incumbent.
If they do game on .... if not, you have Foot, Kinnock, Hague, Howard, Miliband and now Jezza.
PBers overact to all the slightest twists and turns whereas most of Jo Public only connect to the campaign in small soundbites and broad themes.
The PM deserves to be uncomfortable over this totally unnecessary election coupled with an uninspiring campaign. Fortunately for her the voters will decide that she is the lesser of two evils and give her an undeserved but stonking majority.
Con 380-400 .. Lab 180-200 .. SNP 45-50 .. LibDem 8-12 .. Others 20-22
The Hersham Special One concurs (with added Hear, Hear guffaws) with that prediction as indeed does another eminent psephologist with whom I shared a pub dinner last night!). Tories will be 12-15% ahead in the popular vote with a resulting majority of over 100.
(I'll be out canvassing in Kingston and Surbiton tomorrow evening and will report back).
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
Nah. It means Corbyn is feeling confident. And he's on the front foot, and attacking. He's having a good campaign and he has nothing to lose. He's also noticed that TMay is awkward and stiff at this stuff, so he wins either way. Either she looks a coward, or he takes her on and makes her look dull and dreary and depressing. Again.
You appear to be warming to Corbyn (NOM?) Sean. You were right earlier when you implied that NOM was the best outcome for the country because it will force a Soft Brexit.
I'm not warming to Corbyn's dreadful foreign politics or his hateful friends and allies or his ghastly past. I am, however, much more sanguine about NOM as there is indeed a big upside - it's much more likely to lead to Soft Brexit, as we have both said.
The resignation of TMay will not concern me. I dislike her style and her worldview. Her ridiculous refusal to take students out of the migration stats is wilfully self harming to this country. Fuck her and her Ed Miliband manifesto.
A NOM outcome virtually guarantees a Labour + SNP Coalition, plus the LibDems probably joining in for good measure ....... is that what you really, really want?
Or a weak Tory minority govt supported by NI politicians and LDs. What price would they extort? Single Market membership. Ulster voted REMAIN
Nah, that wouldn't work and anyway the pro-Tory N.I. numbers are tiny, plus the LibDems, all 1 or 2 Black Cabs full, would never again join in with the Tories - so however you run the numbers, NOM HAS to mean Corbyn as PM with Nicola as his deputy. I'm recording this for all time as being your preferred outcome.
A shrewd move by Corbyn. Up to now Labour have played a blinder this election, the Conservatives have been utterly incompetent and the Lib Dems, (who), have not existed. Will this force "Glumbucket" to take part. Mind you whoever there is I will be watching Britains Got Talent, what does that say?
Corbyn has played a blinder. I think it's more chance than design. He is 'winging it' to a certain degree but doing it well (unbelievably).
Have we all forgotten womens hour? If May had been so unprepared how much ridicule would she still be getting on here
There is a certain human quality to "I just don't know" while trying to get the iPad to work. People can relate to that...
I just don't know on a £5 billion policy. But then every labour policy is billions and billions and corporation tax will pay it
Amber Rudd was very strong in the EU-referendum debates. She was fierce and rather scary. This might play well against Jeremy. In any case, she will certainly do a better job than May.
I really think the Tories are paying now for the coronation of May last year. She has no experience of having to pitch herself to the public to get them to like her. Muttering a few cliches can only take you so far when you are dull and inarticulate.
I suspect if it comes down to knowing numbers, she will have a better grasp than Corbyn demonstrated yesterday.
Rudd can also play the strength-in-depth card. "The Prime Minister is happy to show faith in her fellow Cabinet members. Could anyone imagine Labour offering up Diane Abbot and her abacus to this debate?"
A shrewd move by Corbyn. Up to now Labour have played a blinder this election, the Conservatives have been utterly incompetent and the Lib Dems, (who), have not existed. Will this force "Glumbucket" to take part. Mind you whoever there is I will be watching Britains Got Talent, what does that say?
Corbyn has played a blinder. I think it's more chance than design. He is 'winging it' to a certain degree but doing it well (unbelievably).
Have we all forgotten womens hour? If May had been so unprepared how much ridicule would she still be getting on here
There is a certain human quality to "I just don't know" while trying to get the iPad to work. People can relate to that...
Really???? The policy annoucement was that day and he did not know the figure. It is total ineptness. Would you forgive a Heart Surgeon who had to use an I-Pad to find your heart.?
The problem with saying I've never been afraid of debate is the somewhat legitimate observation that you clearly were for 6 weeks before changing your mind at the last minute whilst trailing in the polls.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
Nah. It means Corbyn is feeling confident. And he's on the front foot, and attacking. He's having a good campaign and he has nothing to lose. He's also noticed that TMay is awkward and stiff at this stuff, so he wins either way. Either she looks a coward, or he takes her on and makes her look dull and dreary and depressing. Again.
You appear to be warming to Corbyn (NOM?) Sean. You were right earlier when you implied that NOM was the best outcome for the country because it will force a Soft Brexit.
I'm not warming to Corbyn's dreadful foreign politics or his hateful friends and allies or his ghastly past. I am, however, much more sanguine about NOM as there is indeed a big upside - it's much more likely to lead to Soft Brexit, as we have both said.
The resignation of TMay will not concern me. I dislike her style and her worldview. Her ridiculous refusal to take students out of the migration stats is wilfully self harming to this country. Fuck her and her Ed Miliband manifesto.
A NOM outcome virtually guarantees a Labour + SNP Coalition, plus the LibDems probably joining in for good measure ....... is that what you really, really want?
Or a weak Tory minority govt supported by NI politicians and LDs. What price would they extort? Single Market membership. Ulster voted REMAIN
Nah, that wouldn't work and anyway the pro-Tory N.I. numbers are tiny, plus the LibDems, all 1 or 2 Black Cabs full, would never again join in with the Tories - so however you run the numbers, NOM HAS to mean Corbyn as PM with Nicola as his deputy. I'm recording this for all time as being your preferred outcome.
Agree - they should send Thornberry. I know she's pretty disliked on here but she's the best in these kind of forums Labour have. Saw her on Marr a few weeks back and she did well against Fallon.
Thornberry is great. She is by far the most talented MP on the Lab frontbench (I know, I know). And she has a very nice voice.
The way she was traduced over the flags thing was ludicrous. Who would want to live next to a dolt who covers his entire house in flags? It oppressive, and 99% of those who claimed this bloke was a man of the people were hypocrites. They wouldn't much fancy him as a neighbour.
A comment which unfortunately (because I like and admire much of what you ususlly say on here) reveals an utter disconnect with the lives of so many people living on estates around Britain. They would certainly not view the flying of the English or Scottish flag as oppressive or anything to be criticised. Thornberry was crass and stupid and made her whole party appear arrogant and out of touch.
Hi Richard, hope you are well. It wasn't just one flag on a pole though – he covered the front of his home in three bedraggled flags, which just looked stupid. I agree that the metropolitan world I live in is a shade removed from many provincial areas but even so I dare say few people would like to live next to a guy who clearly has no respect for the way his house looks and indeed for his neighbours who have to live next to it.
Ruth Davidson's popularity has plunged with IPSOS Mori by 26 points from last September-and it still isn't comparing like with like relative to Nicola Sturgeon anyway.
Ruth Davidson intellectually is just Kezia Dugdale with better PR. The proof of that can be found in her GE interview by Ponsonby (STV) which I found on the Bella Caledonia blog site.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
Nah. It means Corbyn is feeling confident. And he's on the front foot, and attacking. He's having a good campaign and he has nothing to lose. He's also noticed that TMay is awkward and stiff at this stuff, so he wins either way. Either she looks a coward, or he takes her on and makes her look dull and dreary and depressing. Again.
You appear to be warming to Corbyn (NOM?) Sean. You were right earlier when you implied that NOM was the best outcome for the country because it will force a Soft Brexit.
I'm not warming to Corbyn's dreadful foreign politics or his hateful friends and allies or his ghastly past. I am, however, much more sanguine about NOM as there is indeed a big upside - it's much more likely to lead to Soft Brexit, as we have both said.
The resignation of TMay will not concern me. I dislike her style and her worldview. Her ridiculous refusal to take students out of the migration stats is wilfully self harming to this country. Fuck her and her Ed Miliband manifesto.
A NOM outcome virtually guarantees a Labour + SNP Coalition, plus the LibDems probably joining in for good measure ....... is that what you really, really want?
Or a weak Tory minority govt supported by NI politicians and LDs. What price would they extort? Single Market membership. Ulster voted REMAIN
Nah, that wouldn't work and anyway the pro-Tory N.I. numbers are tiny, plus the LibDems, all 1 or 2 Black Cabs full, would never again join in with the Tories - so however you run the numbers, NOM HAS to mean Corbyn as PM with Nicola as his deputy. I'm recording this for all time as being your preferred outcome.
Or it drags him down to the level of Farron and Nuttall as someone unfit to be PM
Opens him to attacks from everyone and on the day his immigration paper is leaked. Maybe too clever by half comes to mind. Should have sent Thornberry who can be very good
Completely agree. Thornberry would have been fine. I appreciate Corbyn was good on the Q&A the other night but I don't think this format will suit him. He needs to protect his own vote and ensure they turnout to make it close, so can't afford more slip ups.
He has already won this battle just by turning up. He just needs to perform adequately.
@Computer_999: @MarcherLord1 If I was the PM I'd pull Amber Rudd out of it and have nobody there. That would screw them up. Let them have a Lefty Catfight. Win win
Ruth Davidson's popularity has plunged with IPSOS Mori by 26 points from last September-and it still isn't comparing like with like relative to Nicola Sturgeon anyway.
Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson received a higher satisfaction rating than First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in the survey.
Or it drags him down to the level of Farron and Nuttall as someone unfit to be PM
Opens him to attacks from everyone and on the day his immigration paper is leaked. Maybe too clever by half comes to mind. Should have sent Thornberry who can be very good
Completely agree. Thornberry would have been fine. I appreciate Corbyn was good on the Q&A the other night but I don't think this format will suit him. He needs to protect his own vote and ensure they turnout to make it close, so can't afford more slip ups.
He has already won this battle just by turning up. He just needs to perform adequately.
So how many voters will he win by just turning up and performing adequately when he's 6-14 points behind in the polls? Or do his aspirations lie on keeping the Tories down to a 50 seat majority?
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
Nah. It means Corbyn is feeling confident. And he's on the front foot, and attacking. He's having a good campaign and he has nothing to lose. He's also noticed that TMay is awkward and stiff at this stuff, so he wins either way. Either she looks a coward, or he takes her on and makes her look dull and dreary and depressing. Again.
You appear to be warming to Corbyn (NOM?) Sean. You were right earlier when you implied that NOM was the best outcome for the country because it will force a Soft Brexit.
I'm not warming to Corbyn's dreadful foreign politics or his hateful friends and allies or his ghastly past. I am, however, much more sanguine about NOM as there is indeed a big upside - it's much more likely to lead to Soft Brexit, as we have both said.
The resignation of TMay will not concern me. I dislike her style and her worldview. Her ridiculous refusal to take students out of the migration stats is wilfully self harming to this country. Fuck her and her Ed Miliband manifesto.
A NOM outcome virtually guarantees a Labour + SNP Coalition, plus the LibDems probably joining in for good measure ....... is that what you really, really want?
Or a weak Tory minority govt supported by NI politicians and LDs. What price would they extort? Single Market membership. Ulster voted REMAIN
Nah, that wouldn't work and anyway the pro-Tory N.I. numbers are tiny, plus the LibDems, all 1 or 2 Black Cabs full, would never again join in with the Tories - so however you run the numbers, NOM HAS to mean Corbyn as PM with Nicola as his deputy. I'm recording this for all time as being your preferred outcome.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
Nah. It means Corbyn is feeling confident. And he's on the front foot, and attacking. He's having a good campaign and he has nothing to lose. He's also noticed that TMay is awkward and stiff at this stuff, so he wins either way. Either she looks a coward, or he takes her on and makes her look dull and dreary and depressing. Again.
You appear to be warming to Corbyn (NOM?) Sean. You were right earlier when you implied that NOM was the best outcome for the country because it will force a Soft Brexit.
I'm not warming to Corbyn's dreadful foreign politics or his hateful friends and allies or his ghastly past. I am, however, much more sanguine about NOM as there is indeed a big upside - it's much more likely to lead to Soft Brexit, as we have both said.
The resignation of TMay will not concern me. I dislike her style and her worldview. Her ridiculous refusal to take students out of the migration stats is wilfully self harming to this country. Fuck her and her Ed Miliband manifesto.
A NOM outcome virtually guarantees a Labour + SNP Coalition, plus the LibDems probably joining in for good measure ....... is that what you really, really want?
Or a weak Tory minority govt supported by NI politicians and LDs. What price would they extort? Single Market membership. Ulster voted REMAIN
Nah, that wouldn't work and anyway the pro-Tory N.I. numbers are tiny, plus the LibDems, all 1 or 2 Black Cabs full, would never again join in with the Tories - so however you run the numbers, NOM HAS to mean Corbyn as PM with Nicola as his deputy. I'm recording this for all time as being your preferred outcome.
A shrewd move by Corbyn. Up to now Labour have played a blinder this election, the Conservatives have been utterly incompetent and the Lib Dems, (who), have not existed. Will this force "Glumbucket" to take part. Mind you whoever there is I will be watching Britains Got Talent, what does that say?
Corbyn has played a blinder. I think it's more chance than design. He is 'winging it' to a certain degree but doing it well (unbelievably).
Have we all forgotten womens hour? If May had been so unprepared how much ridicule would she still be getting on here
There is a certain human quality to "I just don't know" while trying to get the iPad to work. People can relate to that...
I just don't know on a £5 billion policy. But then every labour policy is billions and billions and corporation tax will pay it
Maybe but on the flip side, people are fed up with fear and austerity. It's been great for the rich and powerful as always with the Tories but for everyone else here's some austerity pie! Top that off with a completely hopeless and hapless leader and there you have it. Still think the Tories will win handsomely - they actually deserve to get hammered.
A shrewd move by Corbyn. Up to now Labour have played a blinder this election, the Conservatives have been utterly incompetent and the Lib Dems, (who), have not existed. Will this force "Glumbucket" to take part. Mind you whoever there is I will be watching Britains Got Talent, what does that say?
Corbyn has played a blinder. I think it's more chance than design. He is 'winging it' to a certain degree but doing it well (unbelievably).
Have we all forgotten womens hour? If May had been so unprepared how much ridicule would she still be getting on here
Did you just accuse PB of pro Labour bias? *blinks*
Comments
Rarely has such a useless potential PM run rings around the incumbent.
Conservative Bedwetting Klaxon Reaching Fever Pitch ....
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/869877671580368901
There is Brexit (which is a car crash) or no Brexit.
You voted car crash. Whoever is PM will deliver.
Lab: 193
Lib: 3
UKIP: 0
Green: 1
SNP: 46
Includes rough & ready Scotland assumption of 30/20/40 Con/Lab/SNP - otherwise SNP stay on 56 which is probably unlikely (as is 46 which is almost certainly too low) - have a go yourself:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=48&LAB=33&LIB=7&UKIP=4&Green=2&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=30&SCOTLAB=20&SCOTLIB=5&SCOTUKIP=0&SCOTGreen=5&SCOTNAT=40&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2015
Con 42 Lab 38 LD 9 UKIP 4
On those figures, of course we would expect a result which is not necessarily to the advantage of Theresa May. Never mind YouGov's 'complex model', just stick the figures into Martin Baxter's simple model, and you'll get a result fairly similar to that produced by YouGov's pointy-heads.
So, in essence, this is simply a poll showing a smaller lead than most other pollsters have been finding, although it's not very different from the 6% lead in the two recent polls from Survation and ORB. More generally, YouGov seem consistently to have been showing smaller leads than other pollsters recently. Overall, we have three pollsters indicating a lead of 4% to 6%, two (ICM and ComRes) in the range 12% to 14%, and two (SurveyMonkey and Opinium) in between.
Could the lower end of those ranges turn out to be accurate? That can't be ruled out, although anecdotal, supplementary and canvassing seem generally to point to a higher figure.
Cleggasm wasn't real in the end.
The debates didn't help Miliband either.
Most voters will not sit down for more than an hour on a week day to watch politicians debate especially when Britain's Got Talent is on.
The cuts which were backloaded by Osborne are coming through the system now and people are noticing the cumulative deterioration in public services.
Yes most of what Corbyn offers is a fantasy but a fantasy versus the turgid grimacing of May for the next 5-years?
And the most prominent headline will be that Corbyn was there and May wasn't. It's not a good look.
If not, makes Angus look a bit of an arse for asking the question
It's getting ridiculous.
Robertson has improved out of sight (he was never bad) since he has been able to ask 2 questions at PMQs since 2015.
The extra exposure, which if Corbyn really does turn up tonight as stated should be substantial, should make sure he retains Moray (bang goes one of the 6 Tory gains predicted by IPSOs Mori/STV) .
Yeah, right.
PBers overact to all the slightest twists and turns whereas most of Jo Public only connect to the campaign in small soundbites and broad themes.
The PM deserves to be uncomfortable over this totally unnecessary election coupled with an uninspiring campaign. Fortunately for her the voters will decide that she is the lesser of two evils and give her an undeserved but stonking majority.
Con 380-400 .. Lab 180-200 .. SNP 45-50 .. LibDem 8-12 .. Others 20-22
@JGForsyth: Suspect polls will swing back to the Tories in the coming days anyway, and Westminster will be inclined to attribute that to the debate 2/2
Daft as brushes.
On the thread; people might want to have a look at Lancaster as a Labour hold. I got on at 6's yesterday. There's a lot of red around the city and the University is still in term.
A good reason to vote conservative.
It would have worked well had she tied the triggering of A50 to her getting a majority.
She triggered the election a month and a half too late and has diffused the issue which tied her voting coalition together.
No. The manifesto should have been little more than a highly political A50 letter to Mr Junker.
"If the country backs me, I will get on the first eurostar to brussels with this letter in my hand!"
Triggering A50 deflated her campaign before it even began.
I really think the Tories are paying now for the coronation of May last year. She has no experience of having to pitch herself to the public to get them to like her. Muttering a few cliches can only take you so far when you are dull and inarticulate.
That's what will hurt her..
If they do game on .... if not, you have Foot, Kinnock, Hague, Howard, Miliband and now Jezza.
https://twitter.com/Conservatives
(I'll be out canvassing in Kingston and Surbiton tomorrow evening and will report back).
Rudd can also play the strength-in-depth card. "The Prime Minister is happy to show faith in her fellow Cabinet members. Could anyone imagine Labour offering up Diane Abbot and her abacus to this debate?"
Ed should have never withdrawn his free owl policy, it could have clinched it for him.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03113/thornberry_3113624c.jpg
*Hands out trouser clips to PB Tories*
For those who don't have TV and don't wish to install iPlayer, the debate will be shown live online here.
Ruth Davidson's popularity has plunged with IPSOS Mori by 26 points from last September-and it still isn't comparing like with like relative to Nicola Sturgeon anyway.
Ruth Davidson intellectually is just Kezia Dugdale with better PR. The proof of that can be found in her GE interview by Ponsonby (STV) which I found on the Bella Caledonia blog site.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o3RvcR3zAf4H6dMyvN5Bvk7zrlTUMQQYJE74xpeOJAQ/edit#gid=0