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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    Cant wait for this all to be over.

    You're not the only one.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    TMA1 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just think it's not impossible that in two weeks time Jezza is PM, the Tories are in Opposition and a new Conservative leadership contest is under-way?

    Who on Earth would become Con LOTO if Theresa falls?

    Boris? Andrea Leadson? Michael Gove? A-Nother?

    100 seats are needed for Lab majority, and that isnt goint to happen. If May loses seats though she will be toast, having gambled and lost. NOC is my preferred outcome. It will mean that we have to have a bipartisan and inclusive Brexit, not May's purple Brexit. The nation will come together.

    Jezz could be PM through a coalition with SNP/Green though (maybe Sinn Fein would actually show up for a change and vote with Jezz for vital votes? ;) )

    'Vote Jerry get Gerry!' !!!
    :smiley:
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just think it's not impossible that in two weeks time Jezza is PM, the Tories are in Opposition and a new Conservative leadership contest is under-way?

    Who on Earth would become Con LOTO if Theresa falls?

    Boris? Andrea Leadson? Michael Gove? A-Nother?

    100 seats are needed for Lab majority, and that isnt goint to happen. If May loses seats though she will be toast, having gambled and lost. NOC is my preferred outcome. It will mean that we have to have a bipartisan and inclusive Brexit, not May's purple Brexit. The nation will come together.

    Jezz could be PM through a coalition with SNP/Green though (maybe Sinn Fein would actually show up for a change and vote with Jezz for vital votes? ;) )

    If Jezza got rid of the oath of loyalty to the Queen, SF may be willing to take their seats.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    This election is already a disaster with the centre-left stuck on ~ 8% and the hard batshit mental left on ~30+%. Everyone needs to do their bit against Jez imo.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just think it's not impossible that in two weeks time Jezza is PM, the Tories are in Opposition and a new Conservative leadership contest is under-way?

    Who on Earth would become Con LOTO if Theresa falls?

    Boris? Andrea Leadson? Michael Gove? A-Nother?

    100 seats are needed for Lab majority, and that isnt goint to happen. If May loses seats though she will be toast, having gambled and lost. NOC is my preferred outcome. It will mean that we have to have a bipartisan and inclusive Brexit, not May's purple Brexit. The nation will come together.

    Jezz could be PM through a coalition with SNP though (maybe Sinn Fein would actually show up for a change and vote with Jezz for vital votes? ;) )

    That would be a good outcome, Angus Robertson would be an excellent Deputy PM, and having Scots in the Brexit negotiations would be a massive step forward.
    Angus Robertson may lose his seat, they would almost certainly need the LDs too
    Lib-Dems would only do "confidence and supply" this time?

    Still, a Lab/SNP/Green coalition with Lib-Dems offering support on key votes isn't out of the question.

    JCICIPM? ;)
    Even if confidence and supply only it would still rely on LD support
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    They want to blow up the deficit, scare off private finance and increase taxes just before we are just a kicking economically from Brexit and a probably recession.
    If I thought for a moment their plans could work I would consider them, they will fail and cause real long term issues that we are really going to struggle to solve.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    bobajobPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just think it's not impossible that in two weeks time Jezza is PM, the Tories are in Opposition and a new Conservative leadership contest is under-way?

    Who on Earth would become Con LOTO if Theresa falls?

    Boris? Andrea Leadson? Michael Gove? A-Nother?

    100 seats are needed for Lab majority, and that isnt goint to happen. If May loses seats though she will be toast, having gambled and lost. NOC is my preferred outcome. It will mean that we have to have a bipartisan and inclusive Brexit, not May's purple Brexit. The nation will come together.

    Jezz could be PM through a coalition with SNP though (maybe Sinn Fein would actually show up for a change and vote with Jezz for vital votes? ;) )

    That would be a good outcome, Angus Robertson would be an excellent Deputy PM, and having Scots in the Brexit negotiations would be a massive step forward.
    Very true - that could work well
    How would SNP MPs in a UK cabinet work with SNP MPs taking the whip from Nicola Sturgeon?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    The Tory Manifesto did neither. To reiterate a point said on here yesterday, that for all the talk about the JAMs there is very little in the manifesto which outlines how the May government is going to help them.

    She will help them by (a) keeping the economy going, (b) slowly reducing the deficit, (c) keeping taxes to sane levels.

    None of which Corbyn will deliver.

    It may be boring, but it's what we need to get through the next few years.

    People are sick to death of Austerity and tax giveaways to the better off
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    bobajobPB said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mike S on Twitter:" I'm hearing that overnight there'll be another poll where CON lead is narrower that at GE2015

    Survation? 6% < 6.6%
    What were the full Survation numbers?
    43-37, but I think Survation poll UK not GB. Which would make the two-party share rather implausible.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,718

    kyf_100 said:

    kle4 said:

    HaroldO said:

    Anyone else watched Designated Survivor yet? So far....it's ok, a thick version of The West Wing with some conspiracy theory inserted as the plot driver.

    It's...middling.
    It's The West Wing meets 24 and is somehow less satisfying than both of those shows.
    The West Wing is one of the greatest TV shows of all time. Designated Survivor is, err, not.

    Anyone watching American Gods? Mental.
    Sounded like crap so would not even waste time looking at it, "This is US " has been pretty good so far.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    @Thescreamingeagles You do realise the hang em flog em brigade currently being with the Tories is the only thing stopping Jez getting power at the moment ?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,408
    rcs1000 said:



    I think we make a rookie error (on both this site, and in the UK generally). We see the EU as a monolithic entity with one view. In reality, it's a barely functional set of fiefdoms that are constantly at war with each other, and with differing goals. On top of which, the net contributions have a great deal of additional say, because they can always threaten to pull the plug.

    Some groups inside the EU are both friendly and sensible. Others are downright hostile. Most have their own goals, and Brexit is important to them only in as much as it allows them to further them.

    The negotiation space is something that is better than nothing but not as good as what had before. I am not hugely enthused by that, but given we made, absent another referendum that I don't want, an irreversible decision to Brexit, it's acceptable.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just think it's not impossible that in two weeks time Jezza is PM, the Tories are in Opposition and a new Conservative leadership contest is under-way?

    Who on Earth would become Con LOTO if Theresa falls?

    Boris? Andrea Leadson? Michael Gove? A-Nother?

    100 seats are needed for Lab majority, and that isnt goint to happen. If May loses seats though she will be toast, having gambled and lost. NOC is my preferred outcome. It will mean that we have to have a bipartisan and inclusive Brexit, not May's purple Brexit. The nation will come together.

    Jezz could be PM through a coalition with SNP though (maybe Sinn Fein would actually show up for a change and vote with Jezz for vital votes? ;) )

    That would be a good outcome, Angus Robertson would be an excellent Deputy PM, and having Scots in the Brexit negotiations would be a massive step forward.
    And freedom of movement brushed under the carpet?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just think it's not impossible that in two weeks time Jezza is PM, the Tories are in Opposition and a new Conservative leadership contest is under-way?

    Who on Earth would become Con LOTO if Theresa falls?

    Boris? Andrea Leadson? Michael Gove? A-Nother?

    100 seats are needed for Lab majority, and that isnt goint to happen. If May loses seats though she will be toast, having gambled and lost. NOC is my preferred outcome. It will mean that we have to have a bipartisan and inclusive Brexit, not May's purple Brexit. The nation will come together.

    Jezz could be PM through a coalition with SNP/Green though (maybe Sinn Fein would actually show up for a change and vote with Jezz for vital votes? ;) )

    If Jezza got rid of the oath of loyalty to the Queen, SF may be willing to take their seats.
    Sorry Alex and Angus it's got to be Gerry Adams for DPM! ;)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    THORNBERRY IS THE ONE WITH THE CURLY HAIR AND BEARD ISNT SHE?

    https://twitter.com/tobyperkinsmp/status/869204270066827264/photo/1

    Why is Thornberry in Chesterfield anyway ?

    Is your man Toby getting a bit panicky ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Trump to pull out of climate Paris deal apparently.

    Source : Some crackers right wing twitter feed.

    Doesn't mean its not true though.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017

    Cyan said:

    alex. said:

    The Conservatives need to be a bit more robust on University funding and point out a few key facts:

    1) Over 50% of young people do not go to university. Labour's policy would transfer the costs from those that do benefit (but who retain a safety net if they don't) to those who don't
    2) Student loans don't just pay for tuition - people take them out for living costs as well
    3) Shifting university funding to the state means that it has to compete with other areas of public expenditure. This inevitably leads to caps/rationing of places and limits opportunity. Universities will target people who are prepared to pay.

    Labour should promise to bring back maintenance grants too, and housing benefit for students. Universities don't care who pays, so long as they get the money.

    I would love it if the Tories did argue exactly as you propose.
    Why don't Labour just promise that everyone will get £100k a year tax free from the government and be done with it?
    Oops. Labour are promising to reintroduce maintenance grants. In your face, Blairites! :)

    The country seemed to run OK before it became the norm for people aged 21 to be in debt up to their eyebrows.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Pulpstar said:

    @Thescreamingeagles You do realise the hang em flog em brigade currently being with the Tories is the only thing stopping Jez getting power at the moment ?

    I shall educate the masses.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    The Tory Manifesto did neither. To reiterate a point said on here yesterday, that for all the talk about the JAMs there is very little in the manifesto which outlines how the May government is going to help them.

    She will help them by (a) keeping the economy going, (b) slowly reducing the deficit, (c) keeping taxes to sane levels.

    None of which Corbyn will deliver.

    It may be boring, but it's what we need to get through the next few years.

    People are sick to death of Austerity and tax giveaways to the better off
    And free tuition fees, the triple lock and fuel allowances for all isn't the same thing?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    The Tory Manifesto did neither. To reiterate a point said on here yesterday, that for all the talk about the JAMs there is very little in the manifesto which outlines how the May government is going to help them.

    She will help them by (a) keeping the economy going, (b) slowly reducing the deficit, (c) keeping taxes to sane levels.

    None of which Corbyn will deliver.

    It may be boring, but it's what we need to get through the next few years.

    "Yes it hurt, yes it worked."

    A line that worked so well for the Tories in 1997.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Labour's manifesto is better costed than the Conservative one. If you don't like the assumptions, that's fair but the Tories have locked the Chancellor in a cupboard.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    I think what this election needs is an unofficial leak of an A.R.S.E
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    alex. said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just think it's not impossible that in two weeks time Jezza is PM, the Tories are in Opposition and a new Conservative leadership contest is under-way?

    Who on Earth would become Con LOTO if Theresa falls?

    Boris? Andrea Leadson? Michael Gove? A-Nother?

    100 seats are needed for Lab majority, and that isnt goint to happen. If May loses seats though she will be toast, having gambled and lost. NOC is my preferred outcome. It will mean that we have to have a bipartisan and inclusive Brexit, not May's purple Brexit. The nation will come together.

    Jezz could be PM through a coalition with SNP though (maybe Sinn Fein would actually show up for a change and vote with Jezz for vital votes? ;) )

    That would be a good outcome, Angus Robertson would be an excellent Deputy PM, and having Scots in the Brexit negotiations would be a massive step forward.
    And freedom of movement brushed under the carpet?
    An EEA/EFTA type arrangement does allow some restrictions, particularly on access to housing and benefits. Richard Tyndall was always an exponent of this.

    I think that soft Brexit is a mirage, so wouldn't be acceptable to the EU, but maybe I am wrong.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    alex. said:

    I think what this election needs is an unofficial leak of an A.R.S.E

    JohnO is forecasting a Tory majority of 100.

    I trust John
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Pulpstar, Twitter can be great. Got me winning tips (Maldonado 2012, Verstappen 2016) due to fast reactions.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    That bloke doesn't know how to read a cricket scoreboard.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    edited May 2017

    alex. said:

    I think what this election needs is an unofficial leak of an A.R.S.E

    JohnO is forecasting a Tory majority of 100.

    I trust John
    Polling Disaster MK.3 if JohnO is correct?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    alex. said:

    I think what this election needs is an unofficial leak of an A.R.S.E

    JohnO is forecasting a Tory majority of 100.

    I trust John
    What did JohnO forecast in 2015 out of interest.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Yes, that undermines it for me as well. It's another reason for me to not vote Labour.

    I think that a positive vision is achievable, it's just that Labour's way of getting there is unrealistic - you cannot give everyone a free owl simply by increasing corporation tax, for example.

    But voters expect politicians to believe that things can get better, that they can improve. That's why they'll have more time for those who acknowledge that expectation than those who don't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    I think what this election needs is an unofficial leak of an A.R.S.E

    JohnO is forecasting a Tory majority of 100.

    I trust John
    Polling Disaster MK.3 if JohnO is correct?
    The latest ICM gives a Tory majority over 100, although that is probably unlikely
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    edited May 2017

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Labour's manifesto is better costed than the Conservative one. If you don't like the assumptions, that's fair but the Tories have locked the Chancellor in a cupboard.
    Is Spreadsheet Phil still in that Cupboard?

    Last time I saw him he was £20 Bn wrong on his HS2 cost answer.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just think it's not impossible that in two weeks time Jezza is PM, the Tories are in Opposition and a new Conservative leadership contest is under-way?

    Who on Earth would become Con LOTO if Theresa falls?

    Boris? Andrea Leadson? Michael Gove? A-Nother?

    100 seats are needed for Lab majority, and that isnt goint to happen. If May loses seats though she will be toast, having gambled and lost. NOC is my preferred outcome. It will mean that we have to have a bipartisan and inclusive Brexit, not May's purple Brexit. The nation will come together.

    Jezz could be PM through a coalition with SNP/Green though (maybe Sinn Fein would actually show up for a change and vote with Jezz for vital votes? ;) )

    If Jezza got rid of the oath of loyalty to the Queen, SF may be willing to take their seats.
    Sorry Alex and Angus it's got to be Gerry Adams for DPM! ;)
    Isn't he a TD now, so not eligible?

    In any case too many beards would make cabinet meetings confusing. It would be like craft ale night down the Holborn Slug and Lettuce.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Labour's manifesto is better costed than the Conservative one. If you don't like the assumptions, that's fair but the Tories have locked the Chancellor in a cupboard.
    Is Spreadsheet Phil still in that Cupboard?

    Last time I saw him he was £20 Bn wrong on his HS2 cost answer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Labour's manifesto is better costed than the Conservative one. If you don't like the assumptions, that's fair but the Tories have locked the Chancellor in a cupboard.
    Is Spreadsheet Phil still in that Cupoard?

    Last time I saw him he was £20 Bn wrong on his HS2 cost answer.
    McDonnell missing under similar circumstances.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Coming from the newspaper that is well on course to retain its crown from 2015 as the most partisan, I think I'll leave that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348

    alex. said:

    I think what this election needs is an unofficial leak of an A.R.S.E

    JohnO is forecasting a Tory majority of 100.

    I trust John
    What did JohnO forecast in 2015 out of interest.
    I think he was on something like Con 315, he was out campaigning like me, and couldn't reconcile what he was getting on the doorstep with the national polls.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761

    Coming from the newspaper that is well on course to retain its crown from 2015 as the most partisan, I think I'll leave that.
    Are you denying that CCHQ lied about 25% Income Tax to pay for Social Care?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    The Tory Manifesto did neither. To reiterate a point said on here yesterday, that for all the talk about the JAMs there is very little in the manifesto which outlines how the May government is going to help them.

    She will help them by (a) keeping the economy going, (b) slowly reducing the deficit, (c) keeping taxes to sane levels.

    None of which Corbyn will deliver.

    It may be boring, but it's what we need to get through the next few years.

    That's just more of the same.

    How will she do (a. when it looks like Brexit will be a total disaster.

    (b. Many JAMs that I know have been negatively affected by cuts and even so she's a part of a government which promised the deficit would be gone by now and isn't.

    (c. Both parties are going to increase taxes.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Labour's manifesto is better costed than the Conservative one. If you don't like the assumptions, that's fair but the Tories have locked the Chancellor in a cupboard.
    Is Spreadsheet Phil still in that Cupboard?

    Last time I saw him he was £20 Bn wrong on his HS2 cost answer.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/26/conservative-labour-tax-spending-plans-ifs-general-election-manifesto

    "The thinktank’s deputy director, Carl Emmerson, accused Labour of “pretending that everything can be paid for” under plans to raise taxes on the richest, many of whom will avoid paying higher rates of tax."

    They hammer them both.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,107
    What are the odds that Nissan and others will relocate to Europe if Corbyn gets his way over corporation tax and millions lost from the City with a financial transaction tax
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144

    alex. said:

    I think what this election needs is an unofficial leak of an A.R.S.E

    JohnO is forecasting a Tory majority of 100.

    I trust John
    What did JohnO forecast in 2015 out of interest.
    I think he was on something like Con 315, he was out campaigning like me, and couldn't reconcile what he was getting on the doorstep with the national polls.
    In JohnO we trust.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Yes, that undermines it for me as well. It's another reason for me to not vote Labour.

    I think that a positive vision is achievable, it's just that Labour's way of getting there is unrealistic - you cannot give everyone a free owl simply by increasing corporation tax, for example.

    But voters expect politicians to believe that things can get better, that they can improve. That's why they'll have more time for those who acknowledge that expectation than those who don't.
    I agree with most of the measures in the Labour manifesto. But it is fundamentally dishonest about how the pledges would be funded. It is economically illiterate.
    It is basically just a massive lie and should be called out as such.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just think it's not impossible that in two weeks time Jezza is PM, the Tories are in Opposition and a new Conservative leadership contest is under-way?

    Who on Earth would become Con LOTO if Theresa falls?

    Boris? Andrea Leadson? Michael Gove? A-Nother?

    100 seats are needed for Lab majority, and that isnt goint to happen. If May loses seats though she will be toast, having gambled and lost. NOC is my preferred outcome. It will mean that we have to have a bipartisan and inclusive Brexit, not May's purple Brexit. The nation will come together.

    Jezz could be PM through a coalition with SNP/Green though (maybe Sinn Fein would actually show up for a change and vote with Jezz for vital votes? ;) )

    If Jezza got rid of the oath of loyalty to the Queen, SF may be willing to take their seats.
    Sorry Alex and Angus it's got to be Gerry Adams for DPM! ;)
    Isn't he a TD now, so not eligible?

    In any case too many beards would make cabinet meetings confusing. It would be like craft ale night down the Holborn Slug and Lettuce.
    Toby had a beard last time I saw him up close. Dont think it will get him in a Corbyn Cabinet

    Maybe a Hammond like Cupboard

    Anyway TMICIPM so he may as well shave.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    alex. said:

    I think what this election needs is an unofficial leak of an A.R.S.E

    JohnO is forecasting a Tory majority of 100.

    I trust John
    What did JohnO forecast in 2015 out of interest.
    I think he was on something like Con 315, he was out campaigning like me, and couldn't reconcile what he was getting on the doorstep with the national polls.
    DId u feel the same? I mean on the door step did u feel the tories were clearly ahead of labour?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    nielh said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Yes, that undermines it for me as well. It's another reason for me to not vote Labour.

    I think that a positive vision is achievable, it's just that Labour's way of getting there is unrealistic - you cannot give everyone a free owl simply by increasing corporation tax, for example.

    But voters expect politicians to believe that things can get better, that they can improve. That's why they'll have more time for those who acknowledge that expectation than those who don't.
    I agree with most of the measures in the Labour manifesto. But it is fundamentally dishonest about how the pledges would be funded. It is economically illiterate.
    It is basically just a massive lie and should be called out as such.
    You'd be surprised by how many on Twitter believe that it can be funded simply by 'taxing the rich' because Eoin Clarke told them so.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    nielh said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Yes, that undermines it for me as well. It's another reason for me to not vote Labour.

    I think that a positive vision is achievable, it's just that Labour's way of getting there is unrealistic - you cannot give everyone a free owl simply by increasing corporation tax, for example.

    But voters expect politicians to believe that things can get better, that they can improve. That's why they'll have more time for those who acknowledge that expectation than those who don't.
    I agree with most of the measures in the Labour manifesto. But it is fundamentally dishonest about how the pledges would be funded. It is economically illiterate.
    It is basically just a massive lie and should be called out as such.
    You'd be surprised by how many on Twitter believe that it can be funded simply by 'taxing the rich' because Eoin Clarke told them so.
    We would have a major financial crisis within 2 months. I doubt Brexit talks would ever begin.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,234
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Just got back from canvassing. The Tory vote was utterly solid; only a couple of people said they were unhappy, and they weren't switching.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,727
    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    I think what this election needs is an unofficial leak of an A.R.S.E

    JohnO is forecasting a Tory majority of 100.

    I trust John
    Polling Disaster MK.3 if JohnO is correct?
    Current polling suggests a Tory lead of anything from 0 to 140.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    nielh said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Yes, that undermines it for me as well. It's another reason for me to not vote Labour.

    I think that a positive vision is achievable, it's just that Labour's way of getting there is unrealistic - you cannot give everyone a free owl simply by increasing corporation tax, for example.

    But voters expect politicians to believe that things can get better, that they can improve. That's why they'll have more time for those who acknowledge that expectation than those who don't.
    I agree with most of the measures in the Labour manifesto. But it is fundamentally dishonest about how the pledges would be funded. It is economically illiterate.
    It is basically just a massive lie and should be called out as such.
    You'd be surprised by how many on Twitter believe that it can be funded simply by 'taxing the rich' because Eoin Clarke told them so.
    Surprise me. How many is it?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,770
    nielh said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Yes, that undermines it for me as well. It's another reason for me to not vote Labour.

    I think that a positive vision is achievable, it's just that Labour's way of getting there is unrealistic - you cannot give everyone a free owl simply by increasing corporation tax, for example.

    But voters expect politicians to believe that things can get better, that they can improve. That's why they'll have more time for those who acknowledge that expectation than those who don't.
    I agree with most of the measures in the Labour manifesto. But it is fundamentally dishonest about how the pledges would be funded. It is economically illiterate.
    It is basically just a massive lie and should be called out as such.

    Not sure it's a lie. I think it's more likely rooted in avtotal inability to understand reality.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    RoyalBlue said:

    Just got back from canvassing. The Tory vote was utterly solid; only a couple of people said they were unhappy, and they weren't switching.

    And PB Tories are wobbling like a blancmange in an earthquake.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    nielh said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Yes, that undermines it for me as well. It's another reason for me to not vote Labour.

    I think that a positive vision is achievable, it's just that Labour's way of getting there is unrealistic - you cannot give everyone a free owl simply by increasing corporation tax, for example.

    But voters expect politicians to believe that things can get better, that they can improve. That's why they'll have more time for those who acknowledge that expectation than those who don't.
    I agree with most of the measures in the Labour manifesto. But it is fundamentally dishonest about how the pledges would be funded. It is economically illiterate.
    It is basically just a massive lie and should be called out as such.
    You'd be surprised by how many on Twitter believe that it can be funded simply by 'taxing the rich' because Eoin Clarke told them so.
    Most people on twitter don't even think the "taxing the rich" is necessary. They just share articles about Fractional Reserve Banking, which is all they need.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    Pretty annoying that MI5 have yet to tell us PB Tories the results of the election to ease our nerves, although understandable given recent events.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    RoyalBlue said:

    Just got back from canvassing. The Tory vote was utterly solid; only a couple of people said they were unhappy, and they weren't switching.

    May I ask where you were canvassing please ?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    nielh said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Yes, that undermines it for me as well. It's another reason for me to not vote Labour.

    I think that a positive vision is achievable, it's just that Labour's way of getting there is unrealistic - you cannot give everyone a free owl simply by increasing corporation tax, for example.

    But voters expect politicians to believe that things can get better, that they can improve. That's why they'll have more time for those who acknowledge that expectation than those who don't.
    I agree with most of the measures in the Labour manifesto. But it is fundamentally dishonest about how the pledges would be funded. It is economically illiterate.
    It is basically just a massive lie and should be called out as such.
    You'd be surprised by how many on Twitter believe that it can be funded simply by 'taxing the rich' because Eoin Clarke told them so.
    Surprise me. How many is it?
    If you're really interested, follow Corbynistas on Twitter. You'll see how many of my age group especially retweet Eoin Clarke and use him as a reference point for their Pro-Corbyn arguments.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    TSE definitely told me the Tories were doing better in 2015 than the Polls were suggesting.

    as he any info this time?

    I have done about 20 canvasses this time compared to a couple in 2015

    I think there is a swing to Lab in Chesterfield a swing away from Lab in NE Derbyshire and TCTC in Derby North.

    I think TMICIPM and the final % will be circa 9% Tory lead
  • theakestheakes Posts: 940
    How many watching the debate tonight: not many I guess seeing as Cononation Street and Britains Got Talent are on at the same time.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    alex. said:

    I think what this election needs is an unofficial leak of an A.R.S.E

    JohnO is forecasting a Tory majority of 100.

    I trust John
    What did JohnO forecast in 2015 out of interest.
    I think he was on something like Con 315, he was out campaigning like me, and couldn't reconcile what he was getting on the doorstep with the national polls.
    Thanks.

    My tiny anecdote is that I've seen zero party posters in people's window.

    Which is certainly a shift away from Labour.

    Lots of St George's flags on tower blocks and in the pit villages though - you'd almost think there was an England game on.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    There's another opinion poll that was taken on Friday and Saturday:

    Survation:

    CON 43% (nc)
    LAB 37% (+3)
    LD 8% (nc)
    UKIP 4% (nc)

    Dunno where the +3 is coming from, got no SNP, PC or Green figures.

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    Just got back from canvassing. The Tory vote was utterly solid; only a couple of people said they were unhappy, and they weren't switching.

    May I ask where you were canvassing please ?
    In London. That's all you get!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    Pretty annoying that MI5 have yet to tell us PB Tories the results of the election to ease our nerves, although understandable given recent events.

    Email Putin. His Fancy Bears will let us know the result shortly, possibly via agent Donald's Twitter.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Labour's manifesto is better costed than the Conservative one. If you don't like the assumptions, that's fair but the Tories have locked the Chancellor in a cupboard.
    Is Spreadsheet Phil still in that Cupboard?

    Last time I saw him he was £20 Bn wrong on his HS2 cost answer.
    Phil Hammond was in Bolsover last week.

    So that's Hammond, Leadsom and Thornberry you've had recently.

    I bet that's more front bench politicians than north-eastern Derbyshire has ever seen before.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    nunu said:

    alex. said:

    I think what this election needs is an unofficial leak of an A.R.S.E

    JohnO is forecasting a Tory majority of 100.

    I trust John
    What did JohnO forecast in 2015 out of interest.
    I think he was on something like Con 315, he was out campaigning like me, and couldn't reconcile what he was getting on the doorstep with the national polls.
    DId u feel the same? I mean on the door step did u feel the tories were clearly ahead of labour?
    Yup, and that the Lord Ashcroft constituency polls were bollocks.

    We'd done a lot of campaigning in Pudsey and he produced a constituency poll with the Tories and Lab tied on 40%.

    I felt the Tories were close to a 7-10% lead.

    Actual result was

    Con 46.4% Lab 37.6%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257

    Looking at Corbyn's full quote about the Scottish referendum he probably did not mean to say what he is reported as saying. But the fact that he gave the answer he did shows how crap he is at these things.

    Imagine him negotiating Brexit....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,535
    HYUFD said:
    and not a flicker of a smile from Maybot as far as I can see. Cameron was streets better at this kind of thing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683

    alex. said:

    I think what this election needs is an unofficial leak of an A.R.S.E

    JohnO is forecasting a Tory majority of 100.

    I trust John
    What did JohnO forecast in 2015 out of interest.
    I think he was on something like Con 315, he was out campaigning like me, and couldn't reconcile what he was getting on the doorstep with the national polls.
    Thanks.

    My tiny anecdote is that I've seen zero party posters in people's window.

    Which is certainly a shift away from Labour.

    Lots of St George's flags on tower blocks and in the pit villages though - you'd almost think there was an England game on.
    I have seen a lot of Tory and Labour posters in Enfield North, Tory and LD posters in Tunbridge Wells and Epping, Tory posters by the side of the motorway in Essex and Labour posters in Edmonton
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Worth remembering that in the past there have sometimes been unusual polling results over Bank Holidays.

    If Survation is following normal pattern then fieldwork will have been Fri 26 + Sat 27 - so scope for Bank Holiday effect.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,770
    edited May 2017

    What are the odds that Nissan and others will relocate to Europe if Corbyn gets his way over corporation tax and millions lost from the City with a financial transaction tax

    Probably not as short as them mothballing their UK operations if there is no Brexit deal that ensures their access to the single market remains substantially unchanged.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,758
    bobajobPB said:

    RobD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mike S on Twitter:" I'm hearing that overnight there'll be another poll where CON lead is narrower that at GE2015

    Survation? 6% < 6.6%
    What were the full Survation numbers?
    43-37-8-4

    Sorry just seen them
    :o prepare for a knock on your door.
    ??
    The numbers and comments are here:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/6dyykc/gmbsurvation_poll_con_43_lab_37_3_ldem_8_ukip_4/
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659

    nielh said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Yes, that undermines it for me as well. It's another reason for me to not vote Labour.

    I think that a positive vision is achievable, it's just that Labour's way of getting there is unrealistic - you cannot give everyone a free owl simply by increasing corporation tax, for example.

    But voters expect politicians to believe that things can get better, that they can improve. That's why they'll have more time for those who acknowledge that expectation than those who don't.
    I agree with most of the measures in the Labour manifesto. But it is fundamentally dishonest about how the pledges would be funded. It is economically illiterate.
    It is basically just a massive lie and should be called out as such.
    You'd be surprised by how many on Twitter believe that it can be funded simply by 'taxing the rich' because Eoin Clarke told them so.
    Surprise me. How many is it?
    If you're really interested, follow Corbynistas on Twitter. You'll see how many of my age group especially retweet Eoin Clarke and use him as a reference point for their Pro-Corbyn arguments.
    But your age group does no register, does not vote and has excrement for brains :-)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144

    HYUFD said:
    and not a flicker of a smile from Maybot as far as I can see. Cameron was streets better at this kind of thing.
    I think she smiled when he mentioned Boris. :p
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    HYUFD said:
    and not a flicker of a smile from Maybot as far as I can see. Cameron was streets better at this kind of thing.
    Cameron came across as way more positive than May, thinking about it now - and he was talking about austerity!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,984
    edited May 2017

    kyf_100 said:

    kle4 said:

    HaroldO said:

    Anyone else watched Designated Survivor yet? So far....it's ok, a thick version of The West Wing with some conspiracy theory inserted as the plot driver.

    It's...middling.
    It's The West Wing meets 24 and is somehow less satisfying than both of those shows.
    The West Wing is one of the greatest TV shows of all time. Designated Survivor is, err, not.

    Anyone watching American Gods? Mental.
    Designated Survivor is a fine concept, but sadly the scripts frequently insult the intelligence of its audience.

    American Gods is indeed a bit mental, but rather brilliant if you can get past the first episode.
    Ian McShane is an acting god. In every sense.

    (edit) Perhaps not one to watch with granny, though.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Would you let us know what the FTSE100 index is currently Scott.

    As I remember you were very keen to report the share prices 11 months ago.


    Sterling’s Brexit-fuelled decline over the past year has been Britain’s “least successful” currency devaluation in history, an analysis of the latest growth figures has revealed.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pounds-fall-the-worst-devaluation-in-history-czkfwhznc
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Croydon Central has 3/1 for Labour gain, but there are temptations out there further. Lab take Broxtowe for example at 12/1. Will Purple Leavers really turnout for Soubry?

  • RobbieBoxRobbieBox Posts: 28
    DeClare said:


    Dunno where the +3 is coming from, got no SNP, PC or Green figures.

    Diane Abbott?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: The idea that the hard left didn't support an IRA victory and were working for peace is for the birds. 1/3

    @GuidoFawkes: Young Marxist Owen Jones wrote “I militarily support the IRA against the British State.” 2/3

    @GuidoFawkes: A few years after he wrote that he was hired as a research assistant by... John McDonnell MP 3/3
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    nielh said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Yes, that undermines it for me as well. It's another reason for me to not vote Labour.

    I think that a positive vision is achievable, it's just that Labour's way of getting there is unrealistic - you cannot give everyone a free owl simply by increasing corporation tax, for example.

    But voters expect politicians to believe that things can get better, that they can improve. That's why they'll have more time for those who acknowledge that expectation than those who don't.
    I agree with most of the measures in the Labour manifesto. But it is fundamentally dishonest about how the pledges would be funded. It is economically illiterate.
    It is basically just a massive lie and should be called out as such.
    You'd be surprised by how many on Twitter believe that it can be funded simply by 'taxing the rich' because Eoin Clarke told them so.
    Surprise me. How many is it?
    If you're really interested, follow Corbynistas on Twitter. You'll see how many of my age group especially retweet Eoin Clarke and use him as a reference point for their Pro-Corbyn arguments.
    But your age group does no register, does not vote and has excrement for brains :-)
    The latter assertion is unfair, lots of older voters believe in fantasy economics too.

    See: Brexit, with those who believed the £350m for the NHS promise as well as believing that we can reduce immigration to the 'tens of thousands' with economic growth totally unaffected.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I'm warming to the cut of his jib:

    Macron launches extraordinary attack on Russian state media while Putin denies meddling in the French election during the leaders' tense first meeting

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4552772/Putin-DENIES-meddling-French-election.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

    https://twitter.com/rupertmyers/status/869238464289681408
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Well I'm suitably terrified of the Corbyn surge, real or imagined, and has inspired me to sign up for door knocking for the Tories in SW London. Never done it before, any tips?!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:

    I'm warming to the cut of his jib:

    Macron launches extraordinary attack on Russian state media while Putin denies meddling in the French election during the leaders' tense first meeting

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4552772/Putin-DENIES-meddling-French-election.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

    https://twitter.com/rupertmyers/status/869238464289681408
    Corbyn really said this? WTH
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    What are the odds that Nissan and others will relocate to Europe if Corbyn gets his way over corporation tax and millions lost from the City with a financial transaction tax

    Probably not as short as them mothballing their UK operations if there is no Brexit deal that ensures their access to the single market remains substantially unchanged.

    total garbage

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761

    What are the odds that Nissan and others will relocate to Europe if Corbyn gets his way over corporation tax and millions lost from the City with a financial transaction tax

    Probably not as short as them mothballing their UK operations if there is no Brexit deal that ensures their access to the single market remains substantially unchanged.

    Exactly I would have thought Nissan and any large exporting business would take Labours softer BREXIT over TMICIPMs No Deal every time
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    edited May 2017

    Well I'm suitably terrified of the Corbyn surge, real or imagined, and has inspired me to sign up for door knocking for the Tories in SW London. Never done it before, any tips?!

    Carry a small bag with breath mints, wipes, a bottle of water, and a small metal ruler.

    Wear comfortable footwear.

    Never put your fingers and thumbs where you can't see them when posting leaflets (that's where the metal ruler comes in handy)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,535

    Well I'm suitably terrified of the Corbyn surge, real or imagined, and has inspired me to sign up for door knocking for the Tories in SW London. Never done it before, any tips?!

    Don't mention social care.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761

    Well I'm suitably terrified of the Corbyn surge, real or imagined, and has inspired me to sign up for door knocking for the Tories in SW London. Never done it before, any tips?!

    Dont mention the Social Care Policy
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

    May and the Tories: 37%
    Corbyn and Labour: 42%

    (via @ComRes)

    Naturally, Labour are promising to shower everyone with money.
    I actually feel that it's not just that. Labour's manifesto, for all its fantasy economics and other flaws, addresses two things:

    (a. people's desire for a positive vision for the future - the ways in which the country can progress

    (b. Bread and butter issues

    .
    That it does so via fantasy economics rather undermines that for me. If I could believe it, I'd vote for plenty of the stuff in it. What good does it do though if it is not to be believed? You don't get brownie points for giving people a positive vision if that vision is not achievable.

    Although you can get votes with that approach. (I am not ruling out that plenty do think it achievable).
    Labour's manifesto is better costed than the Conservative one. If you don't like the assumptions, that's fair but the Tories have locked the Chancellor in a cupboard.
    Is Spreadsheet Phil still in that Cupboard?

    Last time I saw him he was £20 Bn wrong on his HS2 cost answer.
    The Tories have dropped their pledge not to raise taxes so they are scared the Chancellor will be asked how much they are going up, and terrified Hammond might answer.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    nunu said:

    alex. said:

    I think what this election needs is an unofficial leak of an A.R.S.E

    JohnO is forecasting a Tory majority of 100.

    I trust John
    What did JohnO forecast in 2015 out of interest.
    I think he was on something like Con 315, he was out campaigning like me, and couldn't reconcile what he was getting on the doorstep with the national polls.
    DId u feel the same? I mean on the door step did u feel the tories were clearly ahead of labour?
    Yup, and that the Lord Ashcroft constituency polls were bollocks.

    We'd done a lot of campaigning in Pudsey and he produced a constituency poll with the Tories and Lab tied on 40%.

    I felt the Tories were close to a 7-10% lead.

    Actual result was

    Con 46.4% Lab 37.6%
    Was it ever analysed whether the Ashcroft constituency polls were even less accurate than the national polls ?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783

    Well I'm suitably terrified of the Corbyn surge, real or imagined, and has inspired me to sign up for door knocking for the Tories in SW London. Never done it before, any tips?!

    Keep an orange rosette in your pocket in case you get into a tight spot in enemy territory. The Lib Dems are not signatories to the Geneva Conventions.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:

    Would you let us know what the FTSE100 index is currently Scott.

    As I remember you were very keen to report the share prices 11 months ago.


    Sterling’s Brexit-fuelled decline over the past year has been Britain’s “least successful” currency devaluation in history, an analysis of the latest growth figures has revealed.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pounds-fall-the-worst-devaluation-in-history-czkfwhznc
    I have done pretty well out of the Stock market in the last year. I went to a cash/defensives position a few weeks pre vote, bought back in on the dip afterwards, and have risen with the market since. In the last 6 months my Euro denominated stocks and funds have done particularly well. My market equities are 2 orders of magnitude better than my gambling winnings, in Sterling terms. I accept your point that in other currencies the gains are more modest.

    I am in a fairly defensive position now, ready for Brexit, but am musing over what else to do to prepare for a May bellyflop.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,535
    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: The idea that the hard left didn't support an IRA victory and were working for peace is for the birds. 1/3

    @GuidoFawkes: Young Marxist Owen Jones wrote “I militarily support the IRA against the British State.” 2/3

    @GuidoFawkes: A few years after he wrote that he was hired as a research assistant by... John McDonnell MP 3/3

    How does Owen Jones do anything 'militarily'? I doubt he would survive National Service, as my Uncle would say.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,006
    alex. said:

    Most people on twitter don't even think the "taxing the rich" is necessary. They just share articles about Fractional Reserve Banking, which is all they need.

    If there was a test on public finances and the wider economy before you were allowed to vote — basic things, nothing trick — it would probably eliminate 90% of the electorate. Hell it would eliminate a majority of MPs.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761

    Well I'm suitably terrified of the Corbyn surge, real or imagined, and has inspired me to sign up for door knocking for the Tories in SW London. Never done it before, any tips?!

    Carry a small bag with breath mints, wipes, a bottle of water, and a small metal ruler.

    Wear comfortable footwear.

    Never put your fingers and thumbs where you can't see them when posting leaflets (that's where the metal ruler comes in handy)
    I use a wooden spatula compared to the metal ruler
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,535
    RobbieBox said:

    DeClare said:


    Dunno where the +3 is coming from, got no SNP, PC or Green figures.

    Diane Abbott?
    Hairdressers?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348

    NEW THREAD

This discussion has been closed.