My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
Both Leave and Remain said Leaving would mean exiting the single market and the customs union.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
If the election result is anything like that Survation poll, then TMay is going to be prime minister for about 3 minutes, in a Hung Parliament, or with a tiny majority.
Who knows what that will do to Brexit. I genuinely dunno
Baxter gives this result a Con majority of 40.
No popcorn or cigar, but certainly not pampers time.
I don't think UNS will work this time. Labour are now likely to win seats in London. So are the Lib Dems.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
If the election result is anything like that Survation poll, then TMay is going to be prime minister for about 3 minutes, in a Hung Parliament, or with a tiny majority.
Who knows what that will do to Brexit. I genuinely dunno
So who's correct - ICM or the others?
I've no idea. At all. Brexit seems to have changed everything. This election is sui generis.
I think it was dementia tax that changed everything. The Tories were on a rock solid high 40s until their manifesto came out. Taking their core vote for granted.
Nope.
41% ish before the election was called 46% ish after it was called 44% ish now
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
If the election result is anything like that Survation poll, then TMay is going to be prime minister for about 3 minutes, in a Hung Parliament, or with a tiny majority.
Who knows what that will do to Brexit. I genuinely dunno
Baxter gives this result a Con majority of 40.
No popcorn or cigar, but certainly not pampers time.
It's a 1 point Tory-Labour swing from a Hung Parliament. Incredible that it could be this close. If that happens she's gone.
I'd like to see a poll taken since the IRA pounding, however.
The higher the combined share for Con and Lab, the more likely that a small lead in votes gives a working majority.
Tory minority administration trying to sort out Brexit?
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
Both Leave and Remain said Leaving would mean exiting the single market and the customs union.
Joe Public knew that.
That's what they're getting.
Can the £350 million per week go to the NHS too?
My guess is that not one in 100 voters could tell you what the single market and customs union are, what they deliver to the UK and what they impose.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
If the election result is anything like that Survation poll, then TMay is going to be prime minister for about 3 minutes, in a Hung Parliament, or with a tiny majority.
Who knows what that will do to Brexit. I genuinely dunno
So who's correct - ICM or the others?
I've no idea. At all. Brexit seems to have changed everything. This election is sui generis.
I think it was dementia tax that changed everything. The Tories were on a rock solid high 40s until their manifesto came out. Taking their core vote for granted.
Although some damage has been done I'd suggest a very public kick it into the long grass style u turn is re-announced given no-one seems to know what the current position is. One persons wobbliness is another persons flexibility and the issue needs to be buried for the time being.
Mr. Eagles, you also wanted to leave. Only you wanted to wait 10 years for the EU to integrate more and *then* leave. Do you think things would've been easier then?
Mr. JS, I've backed the blues for 350-374 seats at 7. If they get 375 it'll be like Monaco all over again.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union.
Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
You can't say you weren't warned.
In the long-term, I think that's where Europe is heading anyway.
At some point Sweden and Denmark will also have to decide whether to join the euro, or join us outside.
One has raised a children vs one who doesn't want them (she could have adopted) One voted leave vs one voted remain One has a personality vs one who doesn't One has worked in a proper job vs one who has always been a career politician.
Theresa May cannot understand the stresses and strains of having children, doing chores and people who work in this country. Andrea Leadsom should have been elected leader against Theresa May.
Theresa and Philip wanted children. It didn't happen for them, and I, for one, feel nothing but sympathy for them.
I don't know Andrea but I do know a lot of people with a similar role which is fairly marginal in the scheme of things
they could have adopted.
Her career as a politician was more important. There are lots of men and women that don't enjoy sex and theresa may doesn't look like the kind of person who is up for it. And last time I checked if your not up for sex you can't get pregnant.
You are coming across as not a very nice person.
There was an interview in which it was quite clear it was something that she wanted and was still upset by.
And lots of people don't adopt for all sorts of reasons.
Some friends of mine adopted and now, I suspect, bitterly regret it, though they are doing their absolute best for the kid, of course. These stories don't always end happily.
I looked adopting
It can certainly work out well, and Fox jr has a close friend who was adopted and is a lovely young man, but it is not an easy road, either before or after arrival.
I suspect TM would have mellowed with kids, as most of us do, but it has allowed her to sublimate those energies into a career like a number of other politicians. I don't like her for other reasons, but this is not something to hold against her. It was not her choice.
These days, if you're a white couple, it's virtually impossible to adopt for the first time is large parts of the country.
Adoption agencies do like to place children in culturally appropriate settings, and I think that reasonable, but the real problem is that the kids that are up for adoption are not newborn.
If you want to adopt an older child with physical or mental handicaps, or something like foetal alcohol syndrome then you will go through the process very quickly. If only a healthy white baby will do, then you are in a very long queue.
And the stuff on migration rights, non-EU spouses, etc, is explosive.
I can't believe we need to say this again, but apparently we do.
The EU position is that EU citizens should keep the rights that they (and we) currently have, and that UK citizens should be left with only the Brexit rights they voted for.
This is what you voted for Sean. This is Brexit. It means having fewer rights as a citizen of the UK than as a citizen of the EU
Maybe that should have been on the side of a bus...
What a steaming pile of turd. The one right we will have that they won't is the right to elect a government with a different policy. If we simply walk then UK citizens will enjoy every right that they vote for.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
Both Leave and Remain said Leaving would mean exiting the single market and the customs union.
Joe Public knew that.
That's what they're getting.
Can the £350 million per week go to the NHS too?
My guess is that not one in 100 voters could tell you what the single market and customs union are, what they deliver to the UK and what they impose.
I actually disagree with that.
One of the things that struck me the most during the referendum is just how seriously most voters were taking it, and the personal research they'd done.
And the stuff on migration rights, non-EU spouses, etc, is explosive.
I can't believe we need to say this again, but apparently we do.
The EU position is that EU citizens should keep the rights that they (and we) currently have, and that UK citizens should be left with only the Brexit rights they voted for.
This is what you voted for Sean. This is Brexit. It means having fewer rights as a citizen of the UK than as a citizen of the EU
Maybe that should have been on the side of a bus...
What a steaming pile of turd. The one right we will have that they won't is the right to elect a government with a different policy. If we simply walk then UK citizens will enjoy every right that they vote for.
The sound you are hearing is that of highly paid bankers in the city slitting their wrists !
That could shift 5 points from SLAB to SCON by itself. Corbyn is just mad.
I will take that, plus the virality of C The Movie (about to go through the million views in 24 hours barrier), and laugh in the face of your so-called opinion polls; the Labour vote is as soft as a really, really soft thing which forgot to renew its viagra prescription. Tory maj >75 nailed on.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
If the election result is anything like that Survation poll, then TMay is going to be prime minister for about 3 minutes, in a Hung Parliament, or with a tiny majority.
Who knows what that will do to Brexit. I genuinely dunno
And if it's anything like the latest ICM she'll win by a landslide.
The opinion polls are one source of useful data, but they are just one of many and they are known to be unreliable, even when they are all in broad agreement. And this time around, they most certainly aren't.
Other than that fraction - and it's no more than a fraction - of the opinion polls where the headline VI figures suggest that there could be a very small Conservative majority, all of the rest of the evidence suggests a comfortable win for Mrs May at the very least.
The polls are educated guesses, in which a small and non-random sample of public opinion is subjected to a series of corrections, in an attempt to estimate what's actually going on in the country. If any one of those corrections is itself based on an inaccurate assumption, e.g. the turnout weightings by previous party affiliation are wrong, then the poll is rendered useless. Lest we forget, last time the polls were very good on the SNP and the bit part players, but they got the Lab/Con balance quite significantly wrong. Instead of a virtual tie, the Tories finished over a hundred seats ahead of Labour.
In respect of the main horse race, the polls therefore possessed all the predictive value of a horoscope - and there's no reason to suppose that they'll do any better this time. Don't trust them.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
If the election result is anything like that Survation poll, then TMay is going to be prime minister for about 3 minutes, in a Hung Parliament, or with a tiny majority.
Who knows what that will do to Brexit. I genuinely dunno
So who's correct - ICM or the others?
I've no idea. At all. Brexit seems to have changed everything. This election is sui generis.
I think it was dementia tax that changed everything. The Tories were on a rock solid high 40s until their manifesto came out. Taking their core vote for granted.
Although some damage has been done I'd suggest a very public kick it into the long grass style u turn is re-announced given no-one seems to know what the current position is. One persons wobbliness is another persons flexibility and the issue needs to be buried for the time being.
Thanks to May I know what the current position is. And I'm going to have to take steps now, as I had arranged things around there being a cap of around £100K per person. She is lying about there being a cap - we have been promised a mealy-mouth "consultation".
9 days since manifesto-f*** day, I am still seething.
She's very much on the Left of the Tory party, far more so than I'd like, but I would add my voice to those echoing the praises of Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader/PM.
Personally, after 5 weeks I have more respect for Corbyn's political judgement.
This is directly after his visit to Glasgow. How about this: Ex-Labour voters in Glasgow wants to vote Labour but also want independence.
This is exactly the opposite of what Nicola is saying: Vote for the SNP and we will support a Labour government.
Kezia knows f*** all !
But it directly contradicts what the Labour and SLAB manifestos both say. No to another referendum.
Expect a hasty "clarification" soon. I reckon this rambling old Jezza going off piste.
No clarification needs to be issued. SLAB manifesto is not worth the bytes it uses up. SLAB today is the SCON reserve team. They are pathetic. A bunch of losers.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
If the election result is anything like that Survation poll, then TMay is going to be prime minister for about 3 minutes, in a Hung Parliament, or with a tiny majority.
Who knows what that will do to Brexit. I genuinely dunno
Baxter gives this result a Con majority of 40.
No popcorn or cigar, but certainly not pampers time.
I don't think UNS will work this time. Labour are now likely to win seats in London. So are the Lib Dems.
I think it's worth noting that, of the five seats in south-west London held by the Lib Dems before 2015, three are being contested by the Greens, and three are not being contested by UKIP.
The overlap is the two seats in Sutton borough (one of which is still held by the Lib Dems), in both of which the Greens are standing and UKIP isn't.
I'm just amazed that Lab could (though I do not think they will) get a higher vote share than Con managed in 2015. I know UKIP are hugely down and LDs are moribund, but still, my gods. Even as an outside possibility that's stunning.
Personally, after 5 weeks I have more respect for Corbyn's political judgement.
This is directly after his visit to Glasgow. How about this: Ex-Labour voters in Glasgow wants to vote Labour but also want independence.
This is exactly the opposite of what Nicola is saying: Vote for the SNP and we will support a Labour government.
Kezia knows f*** all !
Maybe it helps in Glasgow and a few other places, and they think the cost elsewhere is worth it. Maybe.
Certainly he's in such a stronger position in the party now, and likely after June 8th despite losing, that he can probably say whatever he wants without worrying what regional politicians think.
And the stuff on migration rights, non-EU spouses, etc, is explosive.
The EU position is that EU citizens should keep the rights that they (and we) currently have, and that UK citizens should be left with only the Brexit rights they voted for. This is what you voted for Sean. This is Brexit. It means having fewer rights as a citizen of the UK than as a citizen of the EU Maybe that should have been on the side of a bus.../blockquote>
What a steaming pile of turd. The one right we will have that they won't is the right to elect a government with a different policy. If we simply walk then UK citizens will enjoy every right that they vote for.
No rights in EU countries, though. You may not want any yourself, Mr Patrick, but a lot of people do.
She's very much on the Left of the Tory party, far more so than I'd like, but I would add my voice to those echoing the praises of Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader/PM.
The only post in the Cabinet it would be worth taking her out of Holyrood for.
That could shift 5 points from SLAB to SCON by itself. Corbyn is just mad.
I will take that, plus the virality of C The Movie (about to go through the million views in 24 hours barrier), and laugh in the face of your so-called opinion polls; the Labour vote is as soft as a really, really soft thing which forgot to renew its viagra prescription. Tory maj >75 nailed on.
I hope you're right. And I wish I could rejoice at the idea of TMay leading us into Brexit battle, supported by a cheering Tory majority. But I fear this election has revealed that she is mediocre, unimaginative, unbending and lacking in political judgement. She's gonna fuck it all up. Pfff.
I'm hearing the odd friend and acquittance starting to talk about just spoiling their ballots - they are so pissed off with the choice before them.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
Both Leave and Remain said Leaving would mean exiting the single market and the customs union.
A single message does have flaws, particularly long term. But as a tactic it is simple and easily understandable, which is generally a good idea, and when you're riding at least a mini wave you can afford to do it.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
If the election result is anything like that Survation poll, then TMay is going to be prime minister for about 3 minutes, in a Hung Parliament, or with a tiny majority.
Who knows what that will do to Brexit. I genuinely dunno
So who's correct - ICM or the others?
I've no idea. At all. Brexit seems to have changed everything. This election is sui generis.
I think it was dementia tax that changed everything. The Tories were on a rock solid high 40s until their manifesto came out. Taking their core vote for granted.
Although some damage has been done I'd suggest a very public kick it into the long grass style u turn is re-announced given no-one seems to know what the current position is. One persons wobbliness is another persons flexibility and the issue needs to be buried for the time being.
Thanks to May I know what the current position is. And I'm going to have to take steps now, as I had arranged things around there being a cap of around £100K per person. She is lying about there being a cap - we have been promised a mealy-mouth "consultation".
9 days since manifesto-f*** day, I am still seething.
Why? A cap on care costs was pushed into the long grass in 2015.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
If the election result is anything like that Survation poll, then TMay is going to be prime minister for about 3 minutes, in a Hung Parliament, or with a tiny majority.
Who knows what that will do to Brexit. I genuinely dunno
And if it's anything like the latest ICM she'll win by a landslide.
The opinion polls are one source of useful data, but they are just one of many and they are known to be unreliable, even when they are all in broad agreement. And this time around, they most certainly aren't.
Other than that fraction - and it's no more than a fraction - of the opinion polls where the headline VI figures suggest that there could be a very small Conservative majority, all of the rest of the evidence suggests a comfortable win for Mrs May at the very least.
The polls are educated guesses, in which a small and non-random sample of public opinion is subjected to a series of corrections, in an attempt to estimate what's actually going on in the country. If any one of those corrections is itself based on an inaccurate assumption, e.g. the turnout weightings by previous party affiliation are wrong, then the poll is rendered useless. Lest we forget, last time the polls were very good on the SNP and the bit part players, but they got the Lab/Con balance quite significantly wrong. Instead of a virtual tie, the Tories finished over a hundred seats ahead of Labour.
In respect of the main horse race, the polls therefore possessed all the predictive value of a horoscope - and there's no reason to suppose that they'll do any better this time. Don't trust them.
Brexit has affected this election, but in an unexpected way.
Labour support has surged among Remain voters, while Conservative support has flatlined. People who are really angry about Brexit have rallied to Corbyn, presumably to punish the Tories.
Conservative support, conversely, has surged among Leave voters, while Labour's support has only risen modestly.
That could shift 5 points from SLAB to SCON by itself. Corbyn is just mad.
I will take that, plus the virality of C The Movie (about to go through the million views in 24 hours barrier), and laugh in the face of your so-called opinion polls; the Labour vote is as soft as a really, really soft thing which forgot to renew its viagra prescription. Tory maj >75 nailed on.
I hope you're right. And I wish I could rejoice at the idea of TMay leading us into Brexit battle, supported by a cheering Tory majority. But I fear this election has revealed that she is mediocre, unimaginative, unbending and lacking in political judgement. She's gonna fuck it all up. Pfff.
The risk for her is that isn't not really the social care policy that's collapsed the Tory lead, not directly, anyway, it's that she might have been "found out" as per your third sentence.
I don't think that's entirely fair, but she has to ditch three habits pretty quickly: (1) surrounding herself with just her time-old ultra-loyalists, rather than appointing the best people/available talent for the job, who may disagree with her (2) taking her time to get familiar with all the detail herself prior to making any decisions (3) delegating those decisions to that same trusted clique when she doesn't, and not taking others into her confidence.
In short: she needs to be far more open and flexible in her style, and know when to listen and when to be decisive.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
If the election result is anything like that Survation poll, then TMay is going to be prime minister for about 3 minutes, in a Hung Parliament, or with a tiny majority.
Who knows what that will do to Brexit. I genuinely dunno
So who's correct - ICM or the others?
I've no idea. At all. Brexit seems to have changed everything. This election is sui generis.
I think it was dementia tax that changed everything. The Tories were on a rock solid high 40s until their manifesto came out. Taking their core vote for granted.
Although some damage has been done I'd suggest a very public kick it into the long grass style u turn is re-announced given no-one seems to know what the current position is. One persons wobbliness is another persons flexibility and the issue needs to be buried for the time being.
Thanks to May I know what the current position is. And I'm going to have to take steps now, as I had arranged things around there being a cap of around £100K per person. She is lying about there being a cap - we have been promised a mealy-mouth "consultation".
9 days since manifesto-f*** day, I am still seething.
The social care proposal is dead. I wouldn't worry about it too much.
Looking at Corbyn's full quote about the Scottish referendum he probably did not mean to say what he is reported as saying. But the fact that he gave the answer he did shows how crap he is at these things.
Personally, after 5 weeks I have more respect for Corbyn's political judgement.
This is directly after his visit to Glasgow. How about this: Ex-Labour voters in Glasgow wants to vote Labour but also want independence.
This is exactly the opposite of what Nicola is saying: Vote for the SNP and we will support a Labour government.
Kezia knows f*** all !
But it directly contradicts what the Labour and SLAB manifestos both say. No to another referendum.
Expect a hasty "clarification" soon. I reckon this rambling old Jezza going off piste.
Labour opposes a second Scottish independence referendum. It is unwanted and unnecessary, and we will campaign tirelessly to ensure Scotland remains part of the UK. Independence would lead to turbo-charged austerity for Scottish families
For some reason he's able to get away with this stuff. He is, oddly, both a great communicator and a terrible communicator, as he definitely fires people up, inspires them, with the passion of what he believes in, while also going off the cuff and, most charitably, saying things very open to interpretation which undermine his purported position (the other explanation is he does it deliberately).
That could shift 5 points from SLAB to SCON by itself. Corbyn is just mad.
I will take that, plus the virality of C The Movie (about to go through the million views in 24 hours barrier), and laugh in the face of your so-called opinion polls; the Labour vote is as soft as a really, really soft thing which forgot to renew its viagra prescription. Tory maj >75 nailed on.
I hope you're right. And I wish I could rejoice at the idea of TMay leading us into Brexit battle, supported by a cheering Tory majority. But I fear this election has revealed that she is mediocre, unimaginative, unbending and lacking in political judgement. She's gonna fuck it all up. Pfff.
Yep - that is going to be the outcome, whatever the size of the Tory majority.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you havestuck with it.
If the election result is anything like that Survation poll, then TMay is going to be prime minister for about 3 minutes, in a Hung Parliament, or with a tiny majority.
Who knows what that will do to Brexit. I genuinely dunno
And if it's anything like the latest ICM she'll win by a landslide.
The opinion polls are one source of useful data, but they are just one of many and they are known to be unreliable, even when they are all in broad agreement. And this time around, they most certainly aren't.
Other than that fraction - and it's no more than a fraction - of the opinion polls where the headline VI figures suggest that there could be a very small Conservative majority, all of the rest of the evidence suggests a comfortable win for Mrs May at the very least.
In respect of the main horse race, the polls therefore possessed all the predictive value of a horoscope - and there's no reason to suppose that they'll do any better this time. Don't trust them.
Brexit has affected this election, but in an unexpected way.
Labour support has surged among Remain voters, while Conservative support has flatlined. People who are really angry about Brexit have rallied to Corbyn, presumably to punish the Tories.
Conservative support, conversely, has surged among Leave voters, while Labour's support has only risen modestly.
And the stuff on migration rights, non-EU spouses, etc, is explosive.
I can't believe we need to say this again, but apparently we do.
The EU position is that EU citizens should keep the rights that they (and we) currently have, and that UK citizens should be left with only the Brexit rights they voted for.
This is what you voted for Sean. This is Brexit. It means having fewer rights as a citizen of the UK than as a citizen of the EU
Maybe that should have been on the side of a bus...
If that is their position then it is clear they don't want a deal
"Whether whoever coordinates Labour’s media appearances is a sleeper embedded by Tory high command, or genuinely thinks of Abbott as an asset, is as mysterious as why she has become such a liability. She may carry a cargo hold-full of troublesome baggage, but so do Corbyn and John McDonnell. Decades on the hard left, championing causes regarded as traitorous by the hard right, make that inevitable. Yet where Labour’s leader and shadow Chancellor have become fairly adept at dealing with questions about past affiliations, Abbott blunders into every trap, however clearly telegraphed, with puppyish zeal."
I'm prepared to believe that, depressingly support for the Union is not as high as I would like in any of the Home Nations, but it's a bold statement to stand on its own.
And if most English voters do want it, why do none of Lab/Con/LD have it as a policy? If it was really popular, there'd be a lot more clamouring for it (there has been from some, to be sure, particularly Lab).
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
If the election result is anything like that Survation poll, then TMay is going to be prime minister for about 3 minutes, in a Hung Parliament, or with a tiny majority.
Who knows what that will do to Brexit. I genuinely dunno
So who's correct - ICM or the others?
I've no idea. At all. Brexit seems to have changed everything. This election is sui generis.
I think it was dementia tax that changed everything. The Tories were on a rock solid high 40s until their manifesto came out. Taking their core vote for granted.
Although some damage has been done I'd suggest a very public kick it into the long grass style u turn is re-announced given no-one seems to know what the current position is. One persons wobbliness is another persons flexibility and the issue needs to be buried for the time being.
Thanks to May I know what the current position is. And I'm going to have to take steps now, as I had arranged things around there being a cap of around £100K per person. She is lying about there being a cap - we have been promised a mealy-mouth "consultation".
9 days since manifesto-f*** day, I am still seething.
Why had you arranged it around a cap of £100k when that wasn't the law?
Do you have anything to back that up? I would imagine that if the question was phrased as 'Are you in favour of breaking up the United Kingdom?' the answer would be 'No'.
I'm prepared to believe that, depressingly support for the Union is not as high as I would like in any of the Home Nations, but it's a bold statement to stand on its own.
And if most English voters do want it, why do none of Lab/Con/LD have it as a policy? If it was really popular, there'd be a lot more clamouring for it (there has been from some, to be sure, particularly Lab).
You mean like any of Con/Lab/LDs official policy was to leave the EU?
Is this replacing the 'Corbyn's name is poison' reports from the doorsteps?
But he's blaming the wrong people. Who wrote these things doesn't matter - no PM would consent to anything they were not, at the time of approval, prepared to stand under. If they don't like it is May's fault.
Personally, after 5 weeks I have more respect for Corbyn's political judgement.
This is directly after his visit to Glasgow. How about this: Ex-Labour voters in Glasgow wants to vote Labour but also want independence.
This is exactly the opposite of what Nicola is saying: Vote for the SNP and we will support a Labour government.
Kezia knows f*** all !
But it directly contradicts what the Labour and SLAB manifestos both say. No to another referendum.
Expect a hasty "clarification" soon. I reckon this rambling old Jezza going off piste.
Labour opposes a second Scottish independence referendum. It is unwanted and unnecessary, and we will campaign tirelessly to ensure Scotland remains part of the UK. Independence would lead to turbo-charged austerity for Scottish families
For some reason he's able to get away with this stuff. He is, oddly, both a great communicator and a terrible communicator, as he definitely fires people up, inspires them, with the passion of what he believes in, while also going off the cuff and, most charitably, saying things very open to interpretation which undermine his purported position (the other explanation is he does it deliberately).
I'm prepared to believe that, depressingly support for the Union is not as high as I would like in any of the Home Nations, but it's a bold statement to stand on its own.
And if most English voters do want it, why do none of Lab/Con/LD have it as a policy? If it was really popular, there'd be a lot more clamouring for it (there has been from some, to be sure, particularly Lab).
You mean like any of Con/Lab/LDs official policy was to leave the EU?
A lot of people in Con were clamouring for it to be official policy all the time. There were clearly a large body of support in Con, and sizable support in Lab (and LD for that matter, plenty of their voters supported Leave) for Brexit, and Con and Lab had MPs willing to push for it even though it was not official policy. Genuine question, are there plenty of Lab and Con MPs who support Scottish independence? If it were a widely supported issue in England, I would expect more MPs to be clear that is their position.
My view was we'd be in a better position to Leave if the EU moved in two distinct blocs, Eurozone and non Eurozone, with the Eurozone countries had full political union. Leaving like we are is fraught with disaster.
Mr Eagles, it seems to me that, slowly, slowly, you are moving towards the Lib Dem position. Can this be?
No. I'm a Democrat.
Brexit must be respected and honoured.
So, thanks Joe Public you have told us that by a small margin you'd like to Leave. The devil is in the detail and we'll see what we can come up with. When you see the result and tell us via opinion polls that you don't much like it - well I'm sorry you're stuck with it.
If the election result is anything like that Survation poll, then TMay is going to be prime minister for about 3 minutes, in a Hung Parliament, or with a tiny majority.
Who knows what that will do to Brexit. I genuinely dunno
So who's correct - ICM or the others?
I've no idea. At all. Brexit seems to have changed everything. This election is sui generis.
I think it was dementia tax that changed everything. The Tories were on a rock solid high 40s until their manifesto came out. Taking their core vote for granted.
Although some damage has been done I'd suggest a very public kick it into the long grass style u turn is re-announced given no-one seems to know what the current position is. One persons wobbliness is another persons flexibility and the issue needs to be buried for the time being.
Thanks to May I know what the current position is. And I'm going to have to take steps now, as I had arranged things around there being a cap of around £100K per person. She is lying about there being a cap - we have been promised a mealy-mouth "consultation".
9 days since manifesto-f*** day, I am still seething.
Why had you arranged it around a cap of £100k when that wasn't the law?
The Cameron government were introducing a £72,000 cap in 2020.
Jan 17: FBI warned the Tories that Salman Abedi was planing a UK terror attack.
Surely they warned the British Intelligence services .I suppose the Home secretary an say she was not informed. .However there will have to be an enquiry into the failure to act if true.
More to the point, if Corbyn is the PM after the general election (bear with me here!!) then a central plank of the SNP case for independence - that Scotland and England are irrevocably divided left and right politically - would have been completely blown out of the water.
Comments
41% ish before the election was called
46% ish after it was called
44% ish now
We really are off our heads at the moment.
Three wickets for six runs.
South Africa collapse?
At some point Sweden and Denmark will also have to decide whether to join the euro, or join us outside.
If you want to adopt an older child with physical or mental handicaps, or something like foetal alcohol syndrome then you will go through the process very quickly. If only a healthy white baby will do, then you are in a very long queue.
This is directly after his visit to Glasgow. How about this: Ex-Labour voters in Glasgow wants to vote Labour but also want independence.
This is exactly the opposite of what Nicola is saying: Vote for the SNP and we will support a Labour government.
Kezia knows f*** all !
One of the things that struck me the most during the referendum is just how seriously most voters were taking it, and the personal research they'd done.
The opinion polls are one source of useful data, but they are just one of many and they are known to be unreliable, even when they are all in broad agreement. And this time around, they most certainly aren't.
Other than that fraction - and it's no more than a fraction - of the opinion polls where the headline VI figures suggest that there could be a very small Conservative majority, all of the rest of the evidence suggests a comfortable win for Mrs May at the very least.
The polls are educated guesses, in which a small and non-random sample of public opinion is subjected to a series of corrections, in an attempt to estimate what's actually going on in the country. If any one of those corrections is itself based on an inaccurate assumption, e.g. the turnout weightings by previous party affiliation are wrong, then the poll is rendered useless. Lest we forget, last time the polls were very good on the SNP and the bit part players, but they got the Lab/Con balance quite significantly wrong. Instead of a virtual tie, the Tories finished over a hundred seats ahead of Labour.
In respect of the main horse race, the polls therefore possessed all the predictive value of a horoscope - and there's no reason to suppose that they'll do any better this time. Don't trust them.
9 days since manifesto-f*** day, I am still seething.
"As things stand, pollsters are as nervous as politicians."
(FT article)
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/869205309369266176
The overlap is the two seats in Sutton borough (one of which is still held by the Lib Dems), in both of which the Greens are standing and UKIP isn't.
Certainly he's in such a stronger position in the party now, and likely after June 8th despite losing, that he can probably say whatever he wants without worrying what regional politicians think.
Labour support has surged among Remain voters, while Conservative support has flatlined. People who are really angry about Brexit have rallied to Corbyn, presumably to punish the Tories.
Conservative support, conversely, has surged among Leave voters, while Labour's support has only risen modestly.
"Can't read or write due to our failing education policies? Get a job in IT..."
@JohnMasonMSP: @redskykite @ScotlandsFuture I am suggesting that a high level of grammar is not required for a successful IT career.
To catch him offguard by softballing the first one, then hitting him with harder stuff.
Most English voters want Scotland gone
For greater enlightenment rather than entertainment you can't beat Andrew Neil.
Paxman doesn't do his homework and is out of touch.
Audience questions are a waste of time.
I don't think that's entirely fair, but she has to ditch three habits pretty quickly: (1) surrounding herself with just her time-old ultra-loyalists, rather than appointing the best people/available talent for the job, who may disagree with her (2) taking her time to get familiar with all the detail herself prior to making any decisions (3) delegating those decisions to that same trusted clique when she doesn't, and not taking others into her confidence.
In short: she needs to be far more open and flexible in her style, and know when to listen and when to be decisive.
For some reason he's able to get away with this stuff. He is, oddly, both a great communicator and a terrible communicator, as he definitely fires people up, inspires them, with the passion of what he believes in, while also going off the cuff and, most charitably, saying things very open to interpretation which undermine his purported position (the other explanation is he does it deliberately).
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/diane-abbott-car-crash-interview-ira-terrorism-manchester-attack-trap-tories-liability-a7760471.html
And you lot cheered.
The fact that Brexiteers haven't grasped that yet is simultaneously hilarious and terrifying
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15315581.___There_will_be_no_deals__There_will_be_no_alliance_____Corbyn_rules_out_deal_with_SNP/?ref=twtrec
I'm prepared to believe that, depressingly support for the Union is not as high as I would like in any of the Home Nations, but it's a bold statement to stand on its own.
And if most English voters do want it, why do none of Lab/Con/LD have it as a policy? If it was really popular, there'd be a lot more clamouring for it (there has been from some, to be sure, particularly Lab).
I would imagine that if the question was phrased as 'Are you in favour of breaking up the United Kingdom?' the answer would be 'No'.
But he's blaming the wrong people. Who wrote these things doesn't matter - no PM would consent to anything they were not, at the time of approval, prepared to stand under. If they don't like it is May's fault.
18-24 year olds.
I didn't know that Conservative Party Headquarters was now doubling up as the UK counter-terrorism agency. Fascinating.
Teach me for reading headlines and not the actual quote.
A policy I dare say appeals to overstretched parents, too.