According to the table in the OP, the markets have the LDs too high - when they're being squeezed, and the tactical voting campaign is an uphill struggle. The fact they're averaging 15 suggests that 21 seats is as likely as 9, which is nonsense surely.
Maybe the SNP are too high too at 46, but Sturgeon's 2-hour free advertising session on Thursday night might've helped to shore them up.
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?
Labour is quietly confident of keeping Cardiff seats and giving N Cardiff Tory a fright.
Is that the same way they were quietly confident last time about holding Gower and Morley and thought they would give the Tories a fright in Nuneaton?
He's right - Labour are going to keep their three Cardiff seats and the swing in Cardiff North is likely to be below average.
The battleground seats in Wales are the north-east four, Ynys, Bridgend and the two Newports.
Now that really is a stunning post. Can I just confirm that you are seriously suggesting that Newport is in play and Cardiff isn't? Because frankly I find that very difficult to believe. If the Conservatives are challenging in Newport East then Cardiff West looks like a goner.
The odd thing about the polls is I find it difficult to believe either the Conservative or Labour score.
The Conservatives aren't running an impressive campaign so I find it hard to believe they're going to get the highest vote since Heath in 1970 or maybe Wilson in 1966 - a time when the Liberals were very minor and minor parties almost non-existent.
But I find it difficult to believe that Corbyn's Labour can get over 30%.
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.
Oh dear.
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heels
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.
I remember school milk. And shudder.
Is there anyone who remembers it fondly. Vile and forced to drink it. I refused which annoyed the teachers as much as me as they had to sit there enjoying the Mexican stand off as their break disappeared.
I certainly do , apart from a few odd occasions. Was most enjoyable.
But Scotland is always freezing isn't it? So your milk would have been nice and cold. In sunny Sussex it was like drinking warm, liquid cheese.
I could say I feel sorry for you , but will refrain.
The big losers from the dementia tax policy are the inheritees rather than the elderly people themselves. There are problems with the proposal - a Burnham style Death Tax would be better than this, as it spreads the cost of care around more, avoiding the lottery system of those unfortunate enough to have dementia. But this policy at least ensures that the cost of care is only recuperated after death. The current system is worse, it drains your assets while living. I don't think we will see a polling fall for the tories (or at least not a significant one).
So we're waiting for entirely post-manifesto YouGov tonight? That normally comes out around 10pm, or am I imagining it?
Any others? ICM?
It usually takes a few days, often a week before events move the polls.
No doubt that Labour is winning the campaign though. Jezza is in his element.
No undecideds are going to be shifted by the Tories going on about the IRA or Trident. The people bothered by these things decided ages ago.
The party that wins the election wins the campaign. Labour thought their campaign in 1987 was awesome (and they were much more efficient than the Tories) and much good it did them.
In the red corner: polls showing Labour doing surprisingly well.
In the blue corner, this:
In Bury South, Labour Voters Are Plumping For Strong And Stable Over Principled And Weak
"We’re in Bury South, a seat held by Labour’s Ivan Lewis for twenty years. Around the table are eight local women aged between thirty and fifty. After some introductions, our moderator James Morris asks two questions.
“Who did you vote for in 2015?”
Each woman takes it in turn to reply.
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“I didn’t vote.”
“Labour.”
“And second question, who would you vote for if the election were held tomorrow?”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
I settle back in my chair. This feels like a big deal."
The rest of the piece is worth reading, if you have a minute. It's not that long, and it presents a plausible picture of what may well be going on inside the heads of a great many Labour voters across the country - people thinking about voting Conservative not out of love for the party, but because they feel that they can't bring themselves to back the side that they would normally prefer. Also, take note of the social awkwardness that some of these people felt in admitting that they were leaning Conservative, and then consider whether or not the Shy Tory Problem really has gone away, outside of Southern England at any rate.
Either that fraction of the headline VI polling which shows Labour doing unexpectedly well is wrong, or a considerable pool of anecdotal evidence - from focus groups like this, from leaks from the party campaign teams, and from canvassing returns - is wrong. Labour can't be losing support hand over fist in a seat which is as low as 50th on the Conservative target list, and be heading for 35% of the GB popular vote, at the same time. Miliband only won 31% of the GB popular vote in 2015 - an election in which the Lib Dems were bled white - and it doesn't seem plausible that there are enough Green-Lab and Ukip-Lab defectors available to bump Labour up by 4%, even before you allow for a net migration of voters of any size from Lab to Con.
All the best kippers are Scottish. I thought everyone knew that!
Scott is a flounder Ydoethur, major difference
I think your post is a red herring, Malcolm, to disguise your true feelings!
I would get my coat but even a coat wouldn't coax me outside today.
Sun splitting the sky here ydoethur, if a little bit windy. Had a pleasant afternoon in the garden, where it is sheltered ,with a few refreshments.
Quite a red letter day for me. Just before it started hailing, I cut my new lawns for the first time. The rain we've had in the last few days has helped them a lot and after a dicey patch they're now settling down well and you can't even see the join.
Only thing is, blasted lawnmower is acting up. I think the flywheel's gone.
The big losers from the dementia tax policy are the inheritees rather than the elderly people themselves. There are problems with the proposal - a Burnham style Death Tax would be better than this, as it spreads the cost of care around more, avoiding the lottery system of those unfortunate enough to have dementia. But this policy at least ensures that the cost of care is only recuperated after death. The current system is worse, it drains your assets while living. I don't think we will see a polling fall for the tories (or at least not a significant one).
People need to see inheritances as a delightful windfall, rather than an entitlement.
I understand. Later, in the men’s group which follows, one of the respondents appears to contort himself when asked how he is intending to vote. After an interminable pause, during which he appeared to be experiencing something akin to a near-death experience, he reluctantly said he’s more than likely voting Conservative.
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?
Labour is quietly confident of keeping Cardiff seats and giving N Cardiff Tory a fright.
Is that the same way they were quietly confident last time about holding Gower and Morley and thought they would give the Tories a fright in Nuneaton?
He's right - Labour are going to keep their three Cardiff seats and the swing in Cardiff North is likely to be below average.
The battleground seats in Wales are the north-east four, Ynys, Bridgend and the two Newports.
Now that really is a stunning post. Can I just confirm that you are seriously suggesting that Newport is in play and Cardiff isn't? Because frankly I find that very difficult to believe. If the Conservatives are challenging in Newport East then Cardiff West looks like a goner.
Removing the Severn bridge tolls is excellent conservative policy driving investment in Newport and Cardiff
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?
Labour is quietly confident of keeping Cardiff seats and giving N Cardiff Tory a fright.
Is that the same way they were quietly confident last time about holding Gower and Morley and thought they would give the Tories a fright in Nuneaton?
He's right - Labour are going to keep their three Cardiff seats and the swing in Cardiff North is likely to be below average.
The battleground seats in Wales are the north-east four, Ynys, Bridgend and the two Newports.
Now that really is a stunning post. Can I just confirm that you are seriously suggesting that Newport is in play and Cardiff isn't? Because frankly I find that very difficult to believe. If the Conservatives are challenging in Newport East then Cardiff West looks like a goner.
Betfair disagrees:
Cardiff W Con 11/10 Lab 8/11
Newport E Con 8/11 Lab 10/11
And the Labour majority is smaller in Newport East with a much larger UKIP vote:
Meanwhile on injustice (mentioned earlier in this thread) I find this notion that we shouldn't care about injustice because it may cost a lot to fix very interesting. It seems that there clear gulf between the Conservative party hierarchy (which has claimed to care about injustice, at least post 2005) and elements of the Conservative party base.
FWIW Laddies have trimmed their Over/Under Tory Total Seats - You Choose market by just 2 seats during the course of the day. Whether that was on account of my "Under" bet at 400.5 or in reaction to Opinium's poll, showing the Tories having a slightly reduced lead, who can say.
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?
Labour is quietly confident of keeping Cardiff seats and giving N Cardiff Tory a fright.
Is that the same way they were quietly confident last time about holding Gower and Morley and thought they would give the Tories a fright in Nuneaton?
He's right - Labour are going to keep their three Cardiff seats and the swing in Cardiff North is likely to be below average.
The battleground seats in Wales are the north-east four, Ynys, Bridgend and the two Newports.
Now that really is a stunning post. Can I just confirm that you are seriously suggesting that Newport is in play and Cardiff isn't? Because frankly I find that very difficult to believe. If the Conservatives are challenging in Newport East then Cardiff West looks like a goner.
Betfair disagrees:
Cardiff W Con 11/10 Lab 8/11
Newport E Con 8/11 Lab 10/11
And the Labour majority is smaller in Newport East with a much larger UKIP vote:
Personally I think Labour will win both but Cardiff West is the most likely of Labour's three Cardiff seats to be lost.
I hadn't in fact realised that Newport East included Caldicot, an ex-steel town now rapidly turning into a suburb of Bristol. I can imagine that abolishing the Severn Bridge tolls would play well there, although the demographics still heavily favour Labour.
However, Cardiff West includes a lot of rather nice suburban territory, e.g. Taff's Well. The demographic changes favour the Tories there I would think.
Incidentally I would have thought the most vulnerable seat in Cardiff would be South and Penarth, including lots of quite wealthy areas including the Bay.
In the red corner: polls showing Labour doing surprisingly well.
In the blue corner, this:
In Bury South, Labour Voters Are Plumping For Strong And Stable Over Principled And Weak
"We’re in Bury South, a seat held by Labour’s Ivan Lewis for twenty years. Around the table are eight local women aged between thirty and fifty. After some introductions, our moderator James Morris asks two questions.
“Who did you vote for in 2015?”
Each woman takes it in turn to reply.
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“I didn’t vote.”
“Labour.”
“And second question, who would you vote for if the election were held tomorrow?”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
I settle back in my chair. This feels like a big deal."
The rest of the piece is worth reading, if you have a minute. It's not that long, and it presents a plausible picture of what may well be going on inside the heads of a great many Labour voters across the country - people thinking about voting Conservative not out of love for the party, but because they feel that they can't bring themselves to back the side that they would normally prefer. Also, take note of the social awkwardness that some of these people felt in admitting that they were leaning Conservative, and then consider whether or not the Shy Tory Problem really has gone away, outside of Southern England at any rate.
Either that fraction of the headline VI polling which shows Labour doing unexpectedly well is wrong, or a considerable pool of anecdotal evidence - from focus groups like this, from leaks from the party campaign teams, and from canvassing returns - is wrong. Labour can't be losing support hand over fist in a seat which is as low as 50th on the Conservative target list, and be heading for 35% of the GB popular vote, at the same time. Miliband only won 31% of the GB popular vote in 2015 - an election in which the Lib Dems were bled white - and it doesn't seem plausible that there are enough Green-Lab and Ukip-Lab defectors available to bump Labour up by 4%, even before you allow for a net migration of voters of any size from Lab to Con.
So, which body of evidence is to be believed?
Any TV producer/commentator worth his salt will select his/her focus group to reflect what they are trying to demonstrate . What they never tell you is whether they had for example to interview 10 , 100 or 1000 women to select these 8 women .
All the best kippers are Scottish. I thought everyone knew that!
Scott is a flounder Ydoethur, major difference
I think your post is a red herring, Malcolm, to disguise your true feelings!
I would get my coat but even a coat wouldn't coax me outside today.
Sun splitting the sky here ydoethur, if a little bit windy. Had a pleasant afternoon in the garden, where it is sheltered ,with a few refreshments.
Good morning Malc from sunny Vancouver.
I think a few on here are losing their heads over social care. Personally and as one likely to be effected I have always considered that my wife and I would have to use our assets and house if one or either of us needed care, especially if we contracted dementia. The £100,000 upgrade is welcome, as is the ability to stay in your home for life, but I do think many on here have misunderstood the huge sums involved in providing free care for all. It is simply not sustainable by tax and why should the young pay when the wealthy have big assets in their homes and have always paid the cost. Over my time in business many hundreds of local old people were forced into selling their home when moving into care at great personal anquish.
I understand. Later, in the men’s group which follows, one of the respondents appears to contort himself when asked how he is intending to vote. After an interminable pause, during which he appeared to be experiencing something akin to a near-death experience, he reluctantly said he’s more than likely voting Conservative.
Yes, a mental picture does rather form, doesn't it?
After reading a tale like that, can any of us be entirely sure that the Shy Tory Problem has gone away?
Labour romping it with the unemployed, the young, the do not votes and young C2DEs that pollsters can't find - every demographic that doesn't actually vote.
Not entirely convinced by your Left/Right categorisation. I still think that within the LibDems, all those who might go to Corbyn have gone. Those who remain are the more right-leaning, those who would be truly appalled at the notion of Prime Minister Corbyn, and who might yet hold their nose and vote for the Tories in a wholly polarised election (as this seems to have become).
I suspect that the Labour increase has come from draining the leftist parts of the LibDems, Greens and UKIP leaving them with their core votes.
Likewise the Conservative rise came from draining the rightist and Leaver votes of the LibDems and UKIP.
For much change to come from now it will have to be directly from Con to Lab or Lab to Con.
Alternatively either the Conservatives and/or Labour could lose some of their recently acquired voters from the minor parties.
Meanwhile on injustice (mentioned earlier in this thread) I find this notion that we shouldn't care about injustice because it may cost a lot to fix very interesting. It seems that there clear gulf between the Conservative party hierarchy (which has claimed to care about injustice, at least post 2005) and elements of the Conservative party base.
If you're born into a middle class family, then your chances in life are much greater than if you're born into a working class family. One could impose punitive taxes on the former, in favour of the latter, but I think most Conservatives would reject such an idea.
In the red corner: polls showing Labour doing surprisingly well.
In the blue corner, this:
In Bury South, Labour Voters Are Plumping For Strong And Stable Over Principled And Weak
"We’re in Bury South, a seat held by Labour’s Ivan Lewis for twenty years. Around the table are eight local women aged between thirty and fifty. After some introductions, our moderator James Morris asks two questions.
“Who did you vote for in 2015?”
Each woman takes it in turn to reply.
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“I didn’t vote.”
“Labour.”
“And second question, who would you vote for if the election were held tomorrow?”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
I settle back in my chair. This feels like a big deal."
The rest of the piece is worth reading, if you have a minute. It's not that long, and it presents a plausible picture of what may well be going on inside the heads of a great many Labour voters across the country - people thinking about voting Conservative not out of love for the party, but because they feel that they can't bring themselves to back the side that they would normally prefer. Also, take note of the social awkwardness that some of these people felt in admitting that they were leaning Conservative, and then consider whether or not the Shy Tory Problem really has gone away, outside of Southern England at any rate.
Either that fraction of the headline VI polling which shows Labour doing unexpectedly well is wrong, or a considerable pool of anecdotal evidence - from focus groups like this, from leaks from the party campaign teams, and from canvassing returns - is wrong. Labour can't be losing support hand over fist in a seat which is as low as 50th on the Conservative target list, and be heading for 35% of the GB popular vote, at the same time. Miliband only won 31% of the GB popular vote in 2015 - an election in which the Lib Dems were bled white - and it doesn't seem plausible that there are enough Green-Lab and Ukip-Lab defectors available to bump Labour up by 4%, even before you allow for a net migration of voters of any size from Lab to Con.
So, which body of evidence is to be believed?
Any TV producer/commentator worth his salt will select his/her focus group to reflect what they are trying to demonstrate . What they never tell you is whether they had for example to interview 10 , 100 or 1000 women to select these 8 women .
Irrespective of that, it is telling that not one said Lib Dem, I am not surprised. Prepare, not for Govt, but for an Uber Taxi.
Any TV producer/commentator worth his salt will select his/her focus group to reflect what they are trying to demonstrate . What they never tell you is whether they had for example to interview 10 , 100 or 1000 women to select these 8 women .
I like to think they are trying to report the facts, not report what they think are the facts.
The danger for Labour in Cardiff West is if Plaid do notably well. Otherwise they should have enough to hold, the Tories are coming from quite far back, even with a UKIP squeeze.
Any TV producer/commentator worth his salt will select his/her focus group to reflect what they are trying to demonstrate . What they never tell you is whether they had for example to interview 10 , 100 or 1000 women to select these 8 women .
I like to think they are trying to report the facts, not report what they think are the facts.
Any news from Plaid? It's time we had a whales thread.
Three seats going into this election, and maybe four coming out of it, if they're lucky.
Is there ever anything interesting to be said about Plaid at a General Election?
In theory they might take two: Ynys Mon and Ceredigion. I think the latter is more likely, especially given the (largely English) students from Lampeter and Aberystwyth will have gone home.
In the red corner: polls showing Labour doing surprisingly well.
In the blue corner, this:
In Bury South, Labour Voters Are Plumping For Strong And Stable Over Principled And Weak
"We’re in Bury South, a seat held by Labour’s Ivan Lewis for twenty years. Around the table are eight local women aged between thirty and fifty. After some introductions, our moderator James Morris asks two questions.
“Who did you vote for in 2015?”
Each woman takes it in turn to reply.
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“I didn’t vote.”
“Labour.”
“And second question, who would you vote for if the election were held tomorrow?”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
I settle back in my chair. This feels like a big deal."
Encouraging indications for the Blue Team, but hardly a representative sample and not conducted with any degree of confidentiality so there may have been an element of "me too" about the results
Any TV producer/commentator worth his salt will select his/her focus group to reflect what they are trying to demonstrate . What they never tell you is whether they had for example to interview 10 , 100 or 1000 women to select these 8 women .
I like to think they are trying to report the facts, not report what they think are the facts.
You still believe in the tooth fairy LibDems then .
I understand. Later, in the men’s group which follows, one of the respondents appears to contort himself when asked how he is intending to vote. After an interminable pause, during which he appeared to be experiencing something akin to a near-death experience, he reluctantly said he’s more than likely voting Conservative.
Yes, a mental picture does rather form, doesn't it?
After reading a tale like that, can any of us be entirely sure that the Shy Tory Problem has gone away?
If your sample of 8 indicates 100% of Labour voters from 2015 are now voting Conservative, I would suggest your sample is not representative of the wider voting population and the findings should therefore be discounted.
Any TV producer/commentator worth his salt will select his/her focus group to reflect what they are trying to demonstrate . What they never tell you is whether they had for example to interview 10 , 100 or 1000 women to select these 8 women .
I like to think they are trying to report the facts, not report what they think are the facts.
Any news from Plaid? It's time we had a whales thread.
Three seats going into this election, and maybe four coming out of it, if they're lucky.
Is there ever anything interesting to be said about Plaid at a General Election?
In theory they might take two: Ynys Mon and Ceredigion. I think the latter is more likely, especially given the (largely English) students from Lampeter and Aberystwyth will have gone home.
I was in Aberystwyth on Thursday, having done the rail line from Shrewsbury. Cliff Railway was kind of a consolation prize instead of the Rheidol, which I had just missed, but did see arrive back at 5.15!
I understand. Later, in the men’s group which follows, one of the respondents appears to contort himself when asked how he is intending to vote. After an interminable pause, during which he appeared to be experiencing something akin to a near-death experience, he reluctantly said he’s more than likely voting Conservative.
Yes, a mental picture does rather form, doesn't it?
After reading a tale like that, can any of us be entirely sure that the Shy Tory Problem has gone away?
My favourite was this:
"I recall an anecdote from a canvasser who was berated from across the street with the following: “You ought to be f***ing ashamed of yourself for forcing me to vote Tory!”
RIght. I've decided, I'm not voting for the Conservatives if this mad Dementia Tax stays as is.
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
In the red corner: polls showing Labour doing surprisingly well.
In the blue corner, this:
In Bury South, Labour Voters Are Plumping For Strong And Stable Over Principled And Weak
"We’re in Bury South, a seat held by Labour’s Ivan Lewis for twenty years. Around the table are eight local women aged between thirty and fifty. After some introductions, our moderator James Morris asks two questions.
“Who did you vote for in 2015?”
Each woman takes it in turn to reply.
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“I didn’t vote.”
“Labour.”
“And second question, who would you vote for if the election were held tomorrow?”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
I settle back in my chair. This feels like a big deal."
The rest of the piece is worth reading, if you have a minute. It's not that long, and it presents a plausible picture of what may well be going on inside the heads of a great many Labour voters across the country - people thinking about voting Conservative not out of love for the party, but because they feel that they can't bring themselves to back the side that they would normally prefer. Also, take note of the social awkwardness that some of these people felt in admitting that they were leaning Conservative, and then consider whether or not the Shy Tory Problem really has gone away, outside of Southern England at any rate.
Either that fraction of the headline VI polling which shows Labour doing unexpectedly well is wrong, or a considerable pool of anecdotal evidence - from focus groups like this, from leaks from the party campaign teams, and from canvassing returns - is wrong. Labour can't be losing support hand over fist in a seat which is as low as 50th on the Conservative target list, and be heading for 35% of the GB popular vote, at the same time. Miliband only won 31% of the GB popular vote in 2015 - an election in which the Lib Dems were bled white - and it doesn't seem plausible that there are enough Green-Lab and Ukip-Lab defectors available to bump Labour up by 4%, even before you allow for a net migration of voters of any size from Lab to Con.
RIght. I've decided, I'm not voting for the Conservatives if this mad Dementia Tax stays as is.
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?
Labour is quietly confident of keeping Cardiff seats and giving N Cardiff Tory a fright.
Is that the same way they were quietly confident last time about holding Gower and Morley and thought they would give the Tories a fright in Nuneaton?
He's right - Labour are going to keep their three Cardiff seats and the swing in Cardiff North is likely to be below average.
The battleground seats in Wales are the north-east four, Ynys, Bridgend and the two Newports.
Now that really is a stunning post. Can I just confirm that you are seriously suggesting that Newport is in play and Cardiff isn't? Because frankly I find that very difficult to believe. If the Conservatives are challenging in Newport East then Cardiff West looks like a goner.
Betfair disagrees:
Cardiff W Con 11/10 Lab 8/11
Newport E Con 8/11 Lab 10/11
And the Labour majority is smaller in Newport East with a much larger UKIP vote:
Personally I think Labour will win both but Cardiff West is the most likely of Labour's three Cardiff seats to be lost.
I hadn't in fact realised that Newport East included Caldicot, an ex-steel town now rapidly turning into a suburb of Bristol. I can imagine that abolishing the Severn Bridge tolls would play well there, although the demographics still heavily favour Labour.
However, Cardiff West includes a lot of rather nice suburban territory, e.g. Taff's Well. The demographic changes favour the Tories there I would think.
Incidentally I would have thought the most vulnerable seat in Cardiff would be South and Penarth, including lots of quite wealthy areas including the Bay.
Trendy / posho urban areas are not necessarily good for the Conservatives.
RIght. I've decided, I'm not voting for the Conservatives if this mad Dementia Tax stays as is.
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
Any news from Plaid? It's time we had a whales thread.
Three seats going into this election, and maybe four coming out of it, if they're lucky.
Is there ever anything interesting to be said about Plaid at a General Election?
In theory they might take two: Ynys Mon and Ceredigion. I think the latter is more likely, especially given the (largely English) students from Lampeter and Aberystwyth will have gone home.
Most of the students don't vote at the university, and now registration rules have been changed most won't even be eligible to vote there. The lecturers probably matter more than the students and as they will be busily marking and therefore not have left on holiday that is likely to be decisive.
Bear in mind only 50% of the population of Aberystwyth is Welsh, probably less in Lampeter. But it is very susceptible to the kind of motherhood and apple pie message of the Liberal Democrats among the intellectuals and among the sort of slightly snobbish and well-meaning people who retire there.
Crucially, Williams is also popular.
Bluntly, if Plaid are to gain a seat Ynys Mon looks more probable to me.
RIght. I've decided, I'm not voting for the Conservatives if this mad Dementia Tax stays as is.
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
Just a point - what is Corbyn's policy on care
In his first term, lay the foundations of a national care service, in the meantime spend a lot more. To be paid for by seeking consensus with other parties, possibly via wealth tax.
I understand. Later, in the men’s group which follows, one of the respondents appears to contort himself when asked how he is intending to vote. After an interminable pause, during which he appeared to be experiencing something akin to a near-death experience, he reluctantly said he’s more than likely voting Conservative.
Yes, a mental picture does rather form, doesn't it?
After reading a tale like that, can any of us be entirely sure that the Shy Tory Problem has gone away?
If your sample of 8 indicates 100% of Labour voters from 2015 are now voting Conservative, I would suggest your sample is not representative of the wider voting population and the findings should therefore be discounted.
Trendy / posho urban areas are not necessarily good for the Conservatives.
Fair point, and indeed the closest friend I have in Cardiff West is a Socialist. However, they are rapidly turning very sour for Labour as well as we saw in Bristol. All it takes is a modest Liberal Democrat revival and Labour are in trouble.
Any news from Plaid? It's time we had a whales thread.
Three seats going into this election, and maybe four coming out of it, if they're lucky.
Is there ever anything interesting to be said about Plaid at a General Election?
In theory they might take two: Ynys Mon and Ceredigion. I think the latter is more likely, especially given the (largely English) students from Lampeter and Aberystwyth will have gone home.
Are you expecting a Conservative gain in Ynys Mon then ?
RIght. I've decided, I'm not voting for the Conservatives if this mad Dementia Tax stays as is.
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
RIght. I've decided, I'm not voting for the Conservatives if this mad Dementia Tax stays as is.
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
Just a point - what is Corbyn's policy on care
In his first term, lay the foundations of a national care service, in the meantime spend a lot more. To be paid for by seeking consensus with other parties, possibly via wealth tax.
Prior to the NHS the responsibility for social care belonged to the councils in the form of the workhouse, as I recall. Perhaps that is something further for revival as we enter the brave new world of the 19th century.
RIght. I've decided, I'm not voting for the Conservatives if this mad Dementia Tax stays as is.
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
You could lose even more under the current system. My cousins certainly did.
I have not read a newspaper article that is not supportive of this care policy including the Guardian
Furthermore a tightening of the polls will shake complacency in the conservatives .
I understand there are question time debates with each leader shortly, one of which is Corbyn facing Andrew Neil which should be worth watching
In the last 10 days or so the sun, mail, express, telegraph et al will launch the most horrendous attack on Corbyn and his crew and these are the papers most read by the WWC.
The live one on one's with May and Corbyn and the anti Corbyn media onslaught that is coming should see a good 60-80 majority at the least for May
Is there something Machiavellian about the Tory manifesto. Hit pensioners with money tied up in houses mainly in safe seats. Poll leads shRink but people are scared into voting Tory as the postal votes start being sent In.
RIght. I've decided, I'm not voting for the Conservatives if this mad Dementia Tax stays as is.
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
It's reactions like this that give me the bloody heebie-jeebies.
What arse-wittery has TMay enacted?
The irony is, if Corbyn won, house prices would probably crash.
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher on the doorstep on ITV News
Oh dear how we laugh at PB Tories who defend Dementia Tax should take a look
"Whats this about charging old people for homecare"
May Explains
Women gives her the you can fook off then look.
Clearly a complete non issue!!
Not many people have said it is a non issue, so your point is irrelevant. It's not going to be exceedingly popular by any measure, it asks people to pay more toward cost of social care so of course it isn't, the question is will it be damaging enough to get significant numbers to switch to Labour (who are promising, again, unfunded massive increases and a promise to merely lay the foundation of a national care service by 2022) to cost them a victory? And will any number of people consider, even if they do not like the policy as it stands, that at least they are trying to address the problem.
That sort of reaction pushes me more toward a Tory vote.
RIght. I've decided, I'm not voting for the Conservatives if this mad Dementia Tax stays as is.
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
Any news from Plaid? It's time we had a whales thread.
Three seats going into this election, and maybe four coming out of it, if they're lucky.
Is there ever anything interesting to be said about Plaid at a General Election?
In theory they might take two: Ynys Mon and Ceredigion. I think the latter is more likely, especially given the (largely English) students from Lampeter and Aberystwyth will have gone home.
I think Ynys Mon might go before Ceredigion - Plaid's former leader and MP Ieuan Wyn Jones is standing again
Is there something Machiavellian about the Tory manifesto. Hit pensioners with money tied up in houses mainly in safe seats. Poll leads shRink but people are scared into voting Tory as the postal votes start being sent In.
Politics is, I would guess, at its heart very simple - Machiavellian schemes should be rarely attempted, and even rarer pay off as you intend, dependent as they are on the reactions of others.
RIght. I've decided, I'm not voting for the Conservatives if this mad Dementia Tax stays as is.
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
It's reactions like this that give me the bloody heebie-jeebies.
What arse-wittery has TMay enacted?
The irony is, if Corbyn won, house prices would probably crash.
A lot of the country would consider that a feature not a bug.
It's reactions like this that give me the bloody heebie-jeebies.
What arse-wittery has TMay enacted?
There are so many potential angles to attack TMay over this, regardless of the merits of the policy. Imagine posters with a May giving an authoritarian look with a caption like 'I could care less about your home'.
Long-time lurker, but sitting here in western Cardiff I thought I'd join the talk about the Cardiff seats.
Here are the results from this month's council elections for the wards in the relevant constituencies (multi-member constituencies include just the votes for each party's top candidate):
Cardiff Central LD 9643 Lab 8682 Con 4072 PC 1573 Oth 2410
Cardiff West Lab 10490 PC 10470 Con 6846 LD 2613 Oth 1130
Cardiff North Con 14999 Lab 12610 PC 3306 LD 3147 Oth 3971
Cardiff South (NOT including Penarth) Lab 8884 Con 3557 PC 3052 LD 1971 Oth 1806
Obviously there are particular circumstances for local elections - e.g. Plaid focused hugely on West to the detriment of their performance elsewhere. So DYOR!
RIght. I've decided, I'm not voting for the Conservatives if this mad Dementia Tax stays as is.
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
It's reactions like this that give me the bloody heebie-jeebies.
What arse-wittery has TMay enacted?
The irony is, if Corbyn won, house prices would probably crash.
A lot of the country would consider that a feature not a bug.
I've criticised the policy of relying upon rising house prices more than anyone, but a crash in house prices would be sub optimal.
RIght. I've decided, I'm not voting for the Conservatives if this mad Dementia Tax stays as is.
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
It's reactions like this that give me the bloody heebie-jeebies.
What arse-wittery has TMay enacted?
The irony is, if Corbyn won, house prices would probably crash.
That is a vast over-reaction. Anyway nothing seems to be able to stop the housig market in London, especially since if he won he would increase mass immigration most of whom would go to London, further pushing up London house prices. I really don't fear a Labour overall majority. No one does.
In the red corner: polls showing Labour doing surprisingly well.
In the blue corner, this:
In Bury South, Labour Voters Are Plumping For Strong And Stable Over Principled And Weak
"We’re in Bury South, a seat held by Labour’s Ivan Lewis for twenty years. Around the table are eight local women aged between thirty and fifty. After some introductions, our moderator James Morris asks two questions.
“Who did you vote for in 2015?”
Each woman takes it in turn to reply.
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“I didn’t vote.”
“Labour.”
“And second question, who would you vote for if the election were held tomorrow?”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
I settle back in my chair. This feels like a big deal."
The rest of the piece is worth reading, if you have a minute. It's not that long, and it presents a plausible picture of what may well be going on inside the heads of a great many Labour voters across the country - people thinking about voting Conservative not out of love for the party, but because they feel that they can't bring themselves to back the side that they would normally prefer. Also, take note of the social awkwardness that some of these people felt in admitting that they were leaning Conservative, and then consider whether or not the Shy Tory Problem really has gone away, outside of Southern England at any rate.
Either that fraction of the headline VI polling which shows Labour doing unexpectedly well is wrong, or a considerable pool of anecdotal evidence - from focus groups like this, from leaks from the party campaign teams, and from canvassing returns - is wrong. Labour can't be losing support hand over fist in a seat which is as low as 50th on the Conservative target list, and be heading for 35% of the GB popular vote, at the same time. Miliband only won 31% of the GB popular vote in 2015 - an election in which the Lib Dems were bled white - and it doesn't seem plausible that there are enough Green-Lab and Ukip-Lab defectors available to bump Labour up by 4%, even before you allow for a net migration of voters of any size from Lab to Con.
So, which body of evidence is to be believed?
I still think that for every one of those who is prepared to admit to going from Labour to Tory, there will be another who just can't bring themselves to admit it in public. It goes against everything they have known.
RIght. I've decided, I'm not voting for the Conservatives if this mad Dementia Tax stays as is.
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
Just a point - what is Corbyn's policy on care
NHS becomes NH&SCS
Bevan vs Churchill 1948??
Funding explanation is needed, not words - Corbyn has no idea as the cost is billions and billions per annum
I have not read a newspaper article that is not supportive of this care policy including the Guardian
Furthermore a tightening of the polls will shake complacency in the conservatives .
I understand there are question time debates with each leader shortly, one of which is Corbyn facing Andrew Neil which should be worth watching
In the last 10 days or so the sun, mail, express, telegraph et al will launch the most horrendous attack on Corbyn and his crew and these are the papers most read by the WWC.
The live one on one's with May and Corbyn and the anti Corbyn media onslaught that is coming should see a good 60-80 majority at the least for May
You say this, but the Telegraph had what I thought was a rather pertinent story about MI5, convicted terrorists etc etc etc. Daily Mail tiny write up, minor thing on Sky, nothing on the BBC.
I have to say given the masses of coverage of Cameron and Bullingdon and former drug use, I would have thought the fact that Jahadi Jez and John the Marxist are terrorist sympthaizers would be rather an important story. Given we have seen the media go for days and days on people for having a single dinner on a yacht with a mildly shady individual, I always thought the bar was set very low for "scandal" news when it comes to potential PMs.
The irony is, if Corbyn won, house prices would probably crash.
That's probably happening anyway. It's the only reason I can see for Gove floating the idea of resurrecting HIPS again to gum up the market and prevent a glut of property for sale.
Comments
I would get my coat but even a coat wouldn't coax me outside today.
http://newsthump.com/2016/07/26/slaughter-of-first-borns-could-save-50bn-in-child-benefit-pledges-theresa-may/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=socialnetwork
Maybe the SNP are too high too at 46, but Sturgeon's 2-hour free advertising session on Thursday night might've helped to shore them up.
Even if they get 37%, which i think is the highest possible, they will still go backwards in seats
Piling on votes in heartlands does not get close to challenging.
The Conservatives aren't running an impressive campaign so I find it hard to believe they're going to get the highest vote since Heath in 1970 or maybe Wilson in 1966 - a time when the Liberals were very minor and minor parties almost non-existent.
But I find it difficult to believe that Corbyn's Labour can get over 30%.
In the blue corner, this:
In Bury South, Labour Voters Are Plumping For Strong And Stable Over Principled And Weak
"We’re in Bury South, a seat held by Labour’s Ivan Lewis for twenty years. Around the table are eight local women aged between thirty and fifty. After some introductions, our moderator James Morris asks two questions.
“Who did you vote for in 2015?”
Each woman takes it in turn to reply.
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“Labour.”
“I didn’t vote.”
“Labour.”
“And second question, who would you vote for if the election were held tomorrow?”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
“Conservatives.”
I settle back in my chair. This feels like a big deal."
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ian-warren/labour-party-general-election_b_16704256.html?utm_hp_ref=uk&
The rest of the piece is worth reading, if you have a minute. It's not that long, and it presents a plausible picture of what may well be going on inside the heads of a great many Labour voters across the country - people thinking about voting Conservative not out of love for the party, but because they feel that they can't bring themselves to back the side that they would normally prefer. Also, take note of the social awkwardness that some of these people felt in admitting that they were leaning Conservative, and then consider whether or not the Shy Tory Problem really has gone away, outside of Southern England at any rate.
Either that fraction of the headline VI polling which shows Labour doing unexpectedly well is wrong, or a considerable pool of anecdotal evidence - from focus groups like this, from leaks from the party campaign teams, and from canvassing returns - is wrong. Labour can't be losing support hand over fist in a seat which is as low as 50th on the Conservative target list, and be heading for 35% of the GB popular vote, at the same time. Miliband only won 31% of the GB popular vote in 2015 - an election in which the Lib Dems were bled white - and it doesn't seem plausible that there are enough Green-Lab and Ukip-Lab defectors available to bump Labour up by 4%, even before you allow for a net migration of voters of any size from Lab to Con.
So, which body of evidence is to be believed?
Only thing is, blasted lawnmower is acting up. I think the flywheel's gone.
Now wake up and calculate SUNIL on Sunday.
I dreamt that once and had to change the bedding.
Unfortunately June 8 will be increased Tory Maj
(Any pedants out there, I know they're not fish!)
This made me chuckle:
I understand. Later, in the men’s group which follows, one of the respondents appears to contort himself when asked how he is intending to vote. After an interminable pause, during which he appeared to be experiencing something akin to a near-death experience, he reluctantly said he’s more than likely voting Conservative.
Cardiff W
Con 11/10
Lab 8/11
Newport E
Con 8/11
Lab 10/11
And the Labour majority is smaller in Newport East with a much larger UKIP vote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardiff_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newport_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Personally I think Labour will win both but Cardiff West is the most likely of Labour's three Cardiff seats to be lost.
We know our plaice.
(last one, I promise)
Is there ever anything interesting to be said about Plaid at a General Election?
However, Cardiff West includes a lot of rather nice suburban territory, e.g. Taff's Well. The demographic changes favour the Tories there I would think.
Incidentally I would have thought the most vulnerable seat in Cardiff would be South and Penarth, including lots of quite wealthy areas including the Bay.
I think a few on here are losing their heads over social care. Personally and as one likely to be effected I have always considered that my wife and I would have to use our assets and house if one or either of us needed care, especially if we contracted dementia. The £100,000 upgrade is welcome, as is the ability to stay in your home for life, but I do think many on here have misunderstood the huge sums involved in providing free care for all. It is simply not sustainable by tax and why should the young pay when the wealthy have big assets in their homes and have always paid the cost. Over my time in business many hundreds of local old people were forced into selling their home when moving into care at great personal anquish.
After reading a tale like that, can any of us be entirely sure that the Shy Tory Problem has gone away?
Likewise the Conservative rise came from draining the rightist and Leaver votes of the LibDems and UKIP.
For much change to come from now it will have to be directly from Con to Lab or Lab to Con.
Alternatively either the Conservatives and/or Labour could lose some of their recently acquired voters from the minor parties.
3 mins ago
"I recall an anecdote from a canvasser who was berated from across the street with the following: “You ought to be f***ing ashamed of yourself for forcing me to vote Tory!”
I don't think this will end well...
I(and my siblings) COULD lose hundrends of thousands of pounds of our inheritance. Yes, this decision is based on pure greed, but greed is good. Even if Corbyn by some miracle won and reduced the IHT threshold we would still be better off then what May is planning. I think I'll abstain then voten for this.
Bear in mind only 50% of the population of Aberystwyth is Welsh, probably less in Lampeter. But it is very susceptible to the kind of motherhood and apple pie message of the Liberal Democrats among the intellectuals and among the sort of slightly snobbish and well-meaning people who retire there.
Crucially, Williams is also popular.
Bluntly, if Plaid are to gain a seat Ynys Mon looks more probable to me.
Starts re-reading how to claim asylum in Canada...
Oh dear how we laugh at PB Tories who defend Dementia Tax should take a look
"Whats this about charging old people for homecare"
May Explains
Women gives her the you can fook off then look.
Clearly a complete non issue!!
Furthermore a tightening of the polls will shake complacency in the conservatives .
I understand there are question time debates with each leader shortly, one of which is Corbyn facing Andrew Neil which should be worth watching
In the last 10 days or so the sun, mail, express, telegraph et al will launch the most horrendous attack on Corbyn and his crew and these are the papers most read by the WWC.
The live one on one's with May and Corbyn and the anti Corbyn media onslaught that is coming should see a good 60-80 majority at the least for May
That sort of reaction pushes me more toward a Tory vote.
Bevan vs Churchill 1948??
Here are the results from this month's council elections for the wards in the relevant constituencies (multi-member constituencies include just the votes for each party's top candidate):
Cardiff Central
LD 9643
Lab 8682
Con 4072
PC 1573
Oth 2410
Cardiff West
Lab 10490
PC 10470
Con 6846
LD 2613
Oth 1130
Cardiff North
Con 14999
Lab 12610
PC 3306
LD 3147
Oth 3971
Cardiff South (NOT including Penarth)
Lab 8884
Con 3557
PC 3052
LD 1971
Oth 1806
Obviously there are particular circumstances for local elections - e.g. Plaid focused hugely on West to the detriment of their performance elsewhere. So DYOR!
https://twitter.com/Jefforbited/status/865905949629919232
Yes, they are back. Big style.
The Shy Tory......
I have to say given the masses of coverage of Cameron and Bullingdon and former drug use, I would have thought the fact that Jahadi Jez and John the Marxist are terrorist sympthaizers would be rather an important story. Given we have seen the media go for days and days on people for having a single dinner on a yacht with a mildly shady individual, I always thought the bar was set very low for "scandal" news when it comes to potential PMs.
Mr. Luke, welcome to pb.com, and thanks for the figures.