One point about the social care policy which I have not seen mentioned anywhere. Many have said that the Tories should have stuck with the Dilnot policy of an absolute cap on bills - I think he proposed £35,000. Sounds fair but the great problem with a cap is that it provides perverse incentives: a) to carers and homes to jack up their costs, knowing that the taxpayer will have to pay for everything beyond a certain threshold. b) to families to use the most expensive possible services. In case anyone thinks this is fanciful, the Daily Mail had a piece back in 2014 on a luxury care home in Hampshire where the charges were a £1000-a-week. Dilnot would be exceeded within less than 9 months. Similarly the Guardian had a report last December of a care home in London where the charges were £3000-a-month. With a cap, a vast new subsidized care market would develop, completely unsustainable for any Government. That is one reason why I am so in favour of the Tories' courageous approach, which is both fair to the taxpayer and encourages personal responsibility.
Welcome to PB Leo.
Thank you. I have followed PB as a passive observer for years but I have been so gripped by the standard of the election debate here that I decided to take the plunge this week.
Government is coming for property equity. The various parties are just trying to work out the best way to go about it.
I do not think much has changed other than the welcome increase to £100,000 protection of property value.
As has been said earlier labour find themselves in the ridiculous position of backing the wealthy against the ordinary taxpayer. McDonnell was just jaw dropping when he said he uses the £200 to pay his fuel bill while earning £100,000
It seems May is more in touch with the voter than any of these so called socialists
Ha Ha Ha
Why is that laughable? She has often been ahead in polls with all most if not all social groups, and will probably still win the election, so if she is not more in touch with voters they apparently think she knows what's best for them.
I do not think much has changed is laughable
That it is Left Wing to take a modest house off a life lottery loser.
I have explained 4 times on last thread why nearly all of these are worse off even before house is taken.
You seemed to be saying that someone with £250k in assets should have 90% of their care bill subsidised.
That subsidy might be being part paid by people working on minimum wage living in a rented bedsit.
Or some lazy sod that has not worked a day and gamed the system gets it all free. It is a recipe for disaster , the rich as ever will avoid it , the feckless will get it free and teh poor sods in hte middle who toil all their life will pay over and over again
Estimates made by the general public, collected from the Times Red Box sweepstake on Twitter (this includes my brilliant, yet at the same time most likely disastrously wrong, prediction.)
If Labour really are going to poll somewhere around 35% of the popular vote, then it's not just Ukip and the Greens that will have been bled white to get the extra support. Poor, tragic Timothy.
Labour are eating up the left wing vote. The right wing vote has remained at about 53% throughout.
Mr. B2, two party squeeze is the name of the game. It's SNP and Conservative in Scotland, Labour and Conservative in England and Wales, Lib Dem and Fish Finger in Westmorland.
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.
Oh dear.
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heels
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.
Oh dear.
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heels
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Labour really are lost. The sub regional Scottish leader was encouraging people to vote Tory in the Borders today instead of for the Labour candidate, supposedly so they could beat the SNP. Just how low can Labour end up. It is quite unbelievable. They are now just Tory helpers.
Mr. Owls, all the best ones get stolen. Mr. T used my brilliant UKIPalypse line in one of his Telegraph blogs (before the paper foolishly got rid of them all, only to almost immediately regret the decision).
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.
Oh dear.
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heels
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.
I remember school milk. And shudder.
It was great as long as it had not been stored next to the radiators. Bit dodgy in high summer at times though.
Estimates made by the general public, collected from the Times Red Box sweepstake on Twitter (this includes my brilliant, yet at the same time most likely disastrously wrong, prediction.)
If Labour really are going to poll somewhere around 35% of the popular vote, then it's not just Ukip and the Greens that will have been bled white to get the extra support. Poor, tragic Timothy.
Labour are eating up the left wing vote. The right wing vote has remained at about 53% throughout.
It is a funny old graph - Labour support creeps down and down and down with the LDs edging up a bit, then the election is called and everyone goes 'Shit! We have to vote now? Er, nah, it's still Labour or nothing, sorry Tim.'
Seems to me that the people annoyed by the policy on care are free market libertarian Gladstonians etc etc ie the people over represented on here compared to the outside world, a bit like PB leavers who wouldn't dirty their noses w immigration complaints
I would say most Leavers are quite happy to have state "interference" in domestic issues as long it is the state we voted for. That is why UKIP got nowhere when they went on about flat taxes and privatising the NHS, and 13% in a GE when they majored on immigration.
I think that Theresa May is far too wedded to the belief that every social problem has a correct bureaucratic solution. Matthew Parris put it well when he said the reason why " burning social injustices" remain burning is because it would cost far too much to put them right (I would add that putting them right may cause greater forms of injustice).
But, this care policy is boldly right.
The injustice in this case seems to be that we get old, we suffer disgusting and demeaning diseases (both physical and mental) and then we die. It isn't solvable, it can only be partially alleviated, which costs money, and the only credible approach is a non-partisan attempt to find the least worst, least unfair outcome. In other words, competent bureaucracy is the highest we can aspire, and Labour's only playable card is that they have a better bit of competent bureaucracy than Con do. Detecting a tory plot is just silly.
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?
Government is coming for property equity. The various parties are just trying to work out the best way to go about it.
I do not think much has changed other than the welcome increase to £100,000 protection of property value.
As has been said earlier labour find themselves in the ridiculous position of backing the wealthy against the ordinary taxpayer. McDonnell was just jaw dropping when he said he uses the £200 to pay his fuel bill while earning £100,000
It seems May is more in touch with the voter than any of these so called socialists
Ha Ha Ha
Why is that laughable? She has often been ahead in polls with all most if not all social groups, and will probably still win the election, so if she is not more in touch with voters they apparently think she knows what's best for them.
I do not think much has changed is laughable
That it is Left Wing to take a modest house off a life lottery loser.
I have explained 4 times on last thread why nearly all of these are worse off even before house is taken.
You seemed to be saying that someone with £250k in assets should have 90% of their care bill subsidised.
That subsidy might be being part paid by people working on minimum wage living in a rented bedsit.
Or some lazy sod that has not worked a day and gamed the system gets it all free. It is a recipe for disaster , the rich as ever will avoid it , the feckless will get it free and teh poor sods in hte middle who toil all their life will pay over and over again
I still think this care issue has a long way to play out. So far, those most caught out appear to be the voters - and Jeremy Corbyn. The voters want to understand the proposal more - which the next week will need to clarify. But Labour (and yeah, whatever, the LibDems) will need to come up with some alternative to that proposed by May. Standing on the sidelines, sucking air through teeth and saying "I wouldn't do it like that!" isn't going to wash.
And Corbyn jumping to the defence of the rich who get the Winter Fuel Allowance is an even more jaw-dropping moment in this campaign than Farron claiming to be a Euroscpetic. It just runs counter to EVERYTHING he has been trying to persuade us he stands for.
Labour really are lost. The sub regional Scottish leader was encouraging people to vote Tory in the Borders today instead of for the Labour candidate, supposedly so they could beat the SNP. Just how low can Labour end up. It is quite unbelievable. They are now just Tory helpers.
Afternoon MrG , will we see more SLab bods expelled from the party and sent for retraining?
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.
Oh dear.
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heels
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.
Well I'm not makifng the case that Labour or the LDs are offering anything inspiring
No, but if people aren't voting Tory, but are voting, while they are free to vote however they like for whatever reason they like, it would be best if it was because they think the alternatives on offer are superior, not merely because they don't like the Tory offer. If you consider the Green approach superior, more power to you. Is their manifesto out yet? Their last one had tables and numbers in it, which I appreciated.
Personally as I've often said I've never voted Tory, but there's been some real hysteria (a lot from their own side, on tactical grounds) over a rare attempt to be open and honest, not denying solutions to the problem will be difficult even for those who usually vote for them, such that I am considering doing so. I find the approach refreshing, even a little inspiring, in its own way. I think the main reason it may not be for most is that it is offering more of the same, by and large, as a message.
A good day to all.
This is my second GE, and I've yet to vote for a party because I find their vision inspiring. It's my aim to do that, but in both GEs now, I've not been the biggest fan of what the main political parties have offer. As someone who had an increasingly this ambivalent attitude towards May, but liked her more than Cameron I wasn't taken with the manifesto - to me it all felt a bit miserable. I can't say I've been inspired by the Greens, but I like the way they've conducted themselves during this campaign - at least more so than the other parties.
Mr. B2, two party squeeze is the name of the game. It's SNP and Conservative in Scotland, Labour and Conservative in England and Wales, Lib Dem and Fish Finger in Westmorland.
Mr. G, likely to be best of the rest, as things stand.
Mr. T, I think May and her team aren't very good.
But the alternative is Corbyn.
When you're starving to death and the choice is wet lettuce and a shandy, or dog meat that's been rotting for three weeks and is starting to grow furry fungus, you go for the lettuce.
It's a gamble. The temptation is to give no hostages to fortune in order to get the biggest possible majority. Maybe the gamble will fail, and that will prove that politicians can't get public support for dealing with problems until they become acute crises.
Labour really are lost. The sub regional Scottish leader was encouraging people to vote Tory in the Borders today instead of for the Labour candidate, supposedly so they could beat the SNP. Just how low can Labour end up. It is quite unbelievable. They are now just Tory helpers.
Kezia , is it ? She is really hopeless. She is the leader because no one else wanted it.
"Abbott belongs in that list [of those who have trashed Labour's credibility on the economy] because of her car-crash LBC interview, in which she had no idea how much Labour’s planned 10,000 extra police would cost. Nye and others have seen the polling and focus groups which reveal that this encounter is the one event of this election campaign that’s truly cut through, reaching even those who barely follow politics. The hackneyed metaphor, designed to tap into pre-existing fears about Labour, became real. “Her sums literally did not add up,” he says."
Labour really are lost. The sub regional Scottish leader was encouraging people to vote Tory in the Borders today instead of for the Labour candidate, supposedly so they could beat the SNP. Just how low can Labour end up. It is quite unbelievable. They are now just Tory helpers.
Afternoon MrG , will we see more SLab bods expelled from the party and sent for retraining?
She should be suspending herself Simon but is too stupid to realise.
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?
Labour is quietly confident of keeping Cardiff seats and giving N Cardiff Tory a fright.
Mr. G, likely to be best of the rest, as things stand.
Mr. T, I think May and her team aren't very good.
But the alternative is Corbyn.
When you're starving to death and the choice is wet lettuce and a shandy, or dog meat that's been rotting for three weeks and is starting to grow furry fungus, you go for the lettuce.
MD, if that was all I could amount to I would shoot myself. The absolute rubbish in Scotland makes the garbage in England look like politicians.
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?
Labour is quietly confident of keeping Cardiff seats and giving N Cardiff Tory a fright.
Labour really are lost. The sub regional Scottish leader was encouraging people to vote Tory in the Borders today instead of for the Labour candidate, supposedly so they could beat the SNP. Just how low can Labour end up. It is quite unbelievable. They are now just Tory helpers.
Kezia , is it ? She is really hopeless. She is the leader because no one else wanted it.
Hello Surbiton, yes you guessed it , she really is a duffer par excellence. When will anus Anwar take over.
Government is coming for property equity. The various parties are just trying to work out the best way to go about it.
Indeed so but penalising the unlucky one sixth who happen to have someone who needs long term care doesn't seem the way to go about it. Russian roulette anyone? More pooling of risk and a cap are needed.
Didn`t the Lib Dems, when they were in government, put into place the Dilnot recommendation of a cap payment towards of 75,000? Of course, the May Conservatives swept that away, as they have done/are doing all the reasonable policies that the Lib Dems and David Cameron`s Conservatives put into place. The Conservative Party is not the semi-friendly animal that people voted for at the last election.
Yeah, I read that. And I also read Mr Meeks' threader this morning, which was plausible and cogent as ever.
And yet I can't help feeling that the Tories struck such a horrible bum note with those social care announcements some of the audience will simply walk out. The news that this was a brilliant last minute wheeze by the Number 10 team also implies the idea wasn't properly Crosbyed and focus-grouped. Great. And now we learn the warm and cosy Scots won't have to suffer, even as widows gasp their dying breaths in freezing Carlisle?
Bad bad bad.
I pray I am wrong, of course. Corbyn needs to be thrashed.
He does need to be thrashed, and so do Labour for giving host to a parasite. Don't worry - the public are more sensible than we give them credit for. The fun will really start after the election when the PLP move, once again, against Corbyn. Split on the cards, regardless of margin of victory.
Labour really are lost. The sub regional Scottish leader was encouraging people to vote Tory in the Borders today instead of for the Labour candidate, supposedly so they could beat the SNP. Just how low can Labour end up. It is quite unbelievable. They are now just Tory helpers.
Kezia , is it ? She is really hopeless. She is the leader because no one else wanted it.
Except for Anas Sarwar. He's rubbing his hands at every Kezia balls up.
Government is coming for property equity. The various parties are just trying to work out the best way to go about it.
Indeed so but penalising the unlucky one sixth who happen to have someone who needs long term care doesn't seem the way to go about it. Russian roulette anyone? More pooling of risk and a cap are needed.
Didn`t the Lib Dems, when they were in government, put into place the Dilnot recommendation of a cap payment towards of 75,000? Of course, the May Conservatives swept that away, as they have done/are doing all the reasonable policies that the Lib Dems and David Cameron`s Conservatives put into place. The Conservative Party is not the semi-friendly animal that people voted for at the last election.
Where else should the money realistically come from?
I used to try to get to the back of the queue in the hope that there would be one too few bottles to go around. This worked in my favour just once and I was given a cup of orange squash.
Birthdays were even worse though at my infant school. On your birthday, as a special treat, you drank your milk through the special curly drinking straw that the teacher kept behind her desk. I suppose it was rinsed out as well as possible after each use...
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?
Labour is quietly confident of keeping Cardiff seats and giving N Cardiff Tory a fright.
Polling evidence?
Here is Cardiff West in the Locals;
Plaid Cymru 10,014 (5,644 in 2012) Labour 9,962 (10,393 in 2012) Conservative 8,632 (5,840 in 2012) Lib Dem 3,615 (5,786 in 2012)
Or some lazy sod that has not worked a day and gamed the system gets it all free. It is a recipe for disaster , the rich as ever will avoid it , the feckless will get it free and teh poor sods in hte middle who toil all their life will pay over and over again
I reckon there's something in this, Malc, even for the right-winger. Copied and pasted FPT:
Since people are used to free healthcare I think that voters are going to see the distinction between e.g. dementia and cancer and the way we allocate the risks as essentially unfair.
...
I'm happy that the Tories have tried to grasp a nettle that has been repeatedly kicked (the mixed metaphor may work better as "replanted") into the long grass. And I agree with Mr Meeks that market-based insurance does does not seem to be the cure-all. But I do suspect the National Health & Care Service is the natural long-term direction of travel: not necessarily an optimal solution, but through all the meanders the political currents gently flow this way. Nor am I sure that the Tories should ultimately regret that. The requisite taxation may be despaired of, but it is at least consistent with the "striver's principle" - plenty of older blue-inclined voters dislike the idea of working and saving hard all their lives, to see it all eaten up by costs that the spendthrift or slouch next-door receives for free.
Moreover, if the stinking rich want to pay top dollar to stay in a de luxe care home away from the differently-stinking riff-raff then nobody's going to stop them, though I am not sure they should expect to be subsidised for it.
Also I got an interesting reply from @rural_voter which I think bears repetition:
If there's to be some payment for end of life care it's more sensible for individuals to pay the equivalent of an excess on an insurance policy. Except for offering to leave behind part of the house value, May is asking us to take on the 'tail risk'. She's been really badly-advised/she's mad (delete as applicable).
It's been an interesting day following the BBC homepage changing picture and headline over the Nia Griffiths rebuttal of Thornberry.
It opened with a headline of something like 'Labour wrong on Trident', which frankly could have been a Tory attack, not entirely clear, and I think a picture of a submarine.
Later it changed to something like 'Labour row over Trident', making clear this was Labour arguing with itself.
Now it is 'May attacks Labour over Trident divisions' and a picture of May laughing out loud (at leas that's what the photo looks like)
I still think this care issue has a long way to play out. So far, those most caught out appear to be the voters - and Jeremy Corbyn. The voters want to understand the proposal more - which the next week will need to clarify. But Labour (and yeah, whatever, the LibDems) will need to come up with some alternative to that proposed by May. Standing on the sidelines, sucking air through teeth and saying "I wouldn't do it like that!" isn't going to wash.
And Corbyn jumping to the defence of the rich who get the Winter Fuel Allowance is an even more jaw-dropping moment in this campaign than Farron claiming to be a Euroscpetic. It just runs counter to EVERYTHING he has been trying to persuade us he stands for.
The rich equals 11 million pensioners ie those who get more than £153 pw in respect of WFA
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?
Labour is quietly confident of keeping Cardiff seats and giving N Cardiff Tory a fright.
Polling evidence?
Here is Cardiff West in the Locals;
Plaid Cymru 10,014 (5,644 in 2012) Labour 9,962 (10,393 in 2012) Conservative 8,632 (5,840 in 2012) Lib Dem 3,615 (5,786 in 2012)
So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.
We really need ICM and ComRes who weight according to actual turnout by demographics last time - rather than trusting what people say re likelihood to vote.
I think this is a much better way of doing it - year after year young people say they'll vote and then don't - so why should we trust them this time.
Especially when reports suggest registration is low and the GE seems low key - low TV news ratings, no proper TV debates etc.
Or some lazy sod that has not worked a day and gamed the system gets it all free. It is a recipe for disaster , the rich as ever will avoid it , the feckless will get it free and teh poor sods in hte middle who toil all their life will pay over and over again
I reckon there's something in this, Malc, even for the right-winger. Copied and pasted FPT:
Since people are used to free healthcare I think that voters are going to see the distinction between e.g. dementia and cancer and the way we allocate the risks as essentially unfair.
...
I'm happy that the Tories have tried to grasp a nettle that has been repeatedly kicked (the mixed metaphor may work better as "replanted") into the long grass. And I agree with Mr Meeks that market-based insurance does does not seem to be the cure-all. But I do suspect the National Health & Care Service is the natural long-term direction of travel: not necessarily an optimal solution, but through all the meanders the political currents gently flow this way. Nor am I sure that the Tories should ultimately regret that. The requisite taxation may be despaired of, but it is at least consistent with the "striver's principle" - plenty of older blue-inclined voters dislike the idea of working and saving hard all their lives, to see it all eaten up by costs that the spendthrift or slouch next-door receives for free.
Moreover, if the stinking rich want to pay top dollar to stay in a de luxe care home away from the differently-stinking riff-raff then nobody's going to stop them, though I am not sure they should expect to be subsidised for it.
I tried to calculate the cost of a National Care Service. Labour's cost (in the manifesto) is 3 billion pounds, but I think that is a Diane Abbott calculation.
The cost of the care delivered in the National Care Service I estimated to be 25 billion pounds (some of that money is already in the system, so it doesn't all have to be raised).
I think the additional cost of a National Care Service must realistically be about 10 billion pounds because a large proportion of the residential care is paid privately.
1p on income tax raises about 4 billion, I think.
So the numbers are daunting, and the problem will just worsen with time.
So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.
I don't know how we managed in 2015 given how much tighter the polls were
I've switched my betting strategy, plonking cash down on the Tories in the Southwest. Its odds on, but the majorities are going to increase down there I think.
If the Tories really are losing votes, the votes that we thought might mean unlikely gains in places like... Dagenham and Rainham, the Kippers might see their chances of a seat increase..
They cannot be 28/1 (b365) in D&R in my book. It could be a 3 way marginal
So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.
I know, but there's a difference between a bit of apprehension and wide eyed terror. All will be well on June 8th, I promise.
I think Professor Fisher was predicting a Tory majority some months out for much the same reasons that Rodd did on here. Unfortunately, as the election approached, his predictions were based on the polling and models like Baxter which significantly underestimated both the total quantity of the Tory vote and its increased efficiency so by the election itself he was way out.
I don't know if he has been able to fix this. It will not be easy. Models need data and the data comes from the pollsters. If they are wrong the models are wrong.
Personally, I find the idea that Corbyn is going to get more votes than Miliband did quite unbelievable. Miliband was a clever dork with some interesting policy ideas (some of which the Tories have subsequently stolen) but severely lacking in leadership skills. Unless you compare him with Corbyn of course in which event we are looking at Wellingtonian levels of brilliance (as a general, not so much as a politician).
Corbyn is thick. He has hated this country for decades and supported almost anyone opposed to it or who wished it harm up to and including murderers. He disgusts me. I find those who think he is "nice" really quite deluded. He may be polite but so were many deluded, vicious and ultimately evil despots been in history.
So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.
I don't know how we managed in 2015 given how much tighter the polls were
I am not remotely worried about the post-manifesto-polls.
I use this Avatar for a reason. Ok quite a few reasons.
No, the Tories should be okay, but they need to avoid any more blunders like the care-for-elderly stuff. May and her underlings are clearly intellectually unequipped for difficult, highly sensitive politics. Yes, she was roundly mocked for only repeating 'strong and stable' ad nauseam, but in hindsight Lynton knew what he was doing and instructed her to do this for a reason.
So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.
I don't know how we managed in 2015 given how much tighter the polls were
I am not remotely worried about the post-manifesto-polls.
I use this Avatar for a reason. Ok quite a few reasons.
I'd laugh if the Tories were up (although I seriously doubt they will be)
If the Tories really are losing votes, the votes that we thought might mean unlikely gains in places like... Dagenham and Rainham, the Kippers might see their chances of a seat increase..
They cannot be 28/1 (b365) in D&R in my book. It could be a 3 way marginal
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.
Current Tory lead 14.4% in ELBOW so far this week.
Cf. 19.4% w/ending 23rd April
Sleazy, nasty Tories on the slide !
*IF* the polls are right then the Conservatives aren't on the slide, as I dare say you know yourself. It's the Labour vote that's rising, at the expense of what's left of the also-rans' support.
The big question now is how far the Labour surge can be trusted...
IN FAVOUR
1. Labour's position has improved significantly in not all, but certainly the majority of, the polls - up by perhaps 6-7% since March. 2. The campaign concentrates public attention on the two leading parties, which is very beneficial to Labour: it gets extra attention as the potential alternative Government, and has the chance to squeeze the votes of media-starved smaller parties. Of the alternatives to the big two, only the SNP is regarded highly and it, of course, is only contesting 9% of the available seats.
AGAINST
1. On the secondary questions, despite some improvement for Labour in some surveys since the campaign started, the party is still a very long way behind the Conservatives. In the same Ipsos poll that was the first of the campaign to put Labour on 34%, Theresa May also scored the highest approval rating ever recorded for any sitting PM in that series (stretching back to 1979) at this stage of an election campaign. The secondary questions, on economic competence and leadership, were a better guide to the outcome of the election than headline VI last time around - and we can probably factor in the Tory lead on managing Brexit in 2017 as well. 2. Labour is much more dependent for its vote share on the support of very young voters and previous non-voters than are the Conservatives. If the pollsters showing Labour doing best have miscalculated their turnout weightings (and ICM have as good as accused them of doing so already) then Labour will poll significantly lower than the most optimistic projections. 3. It is also possible that some of the pollsters may have got their 2015 vote share weightings wrong as well, causing them to over-estimate Labour support and under-estimate that for the Liberal Democrats. This is an issue that has previously been discussed on PB.
A minority of the pollsters are less generous to Labour: ICM, GfK and Kantar TNS all continue to record Labour scores below 30%. They may catch up eventually and end up herding with the others, but they may not - in which case, both sides may be, but one must be, wrong.
My thinking on this subject is, at present, that Labour can potentially make 35% or perhaps a little higher than that, if they can squeeze their fair share of votes out of the third parties and gain the majority of the support from the relatively small numbers of voters who are truly undecided, or still open to changing sides. But in order for this to be true, we have to assume first that the Tories' large advantages on leadership, Brexit and economic competence are all, somehow, far less relevant than they have been at every other election for the last 30 years; second, that Labour's 2015 vote will firm up to a similar extent to that of the Conservatives, i.e. that the vast majority of Miliband's supporters will vote for Corbyn and very few will desert; and third, that Labour's new support amongst the young and previous non-voters will actually turn out. That's a not insignificant series of hurdles to clear.
I think Professor Fisher was predicting a Tory majority some months out for much the same reasons that Rodd did on here. Unfortunately, as the election approached, his predictions were based on the polling and models like Baxter which significantly underestimated both the total quantity of the Tory vote and its increased efficiency so by the election itself he was way out.
I don't know if he has been able to fix this. It will not be easy. Models need data and the data comes from the pollsters. If they are wrong the models are wrong.
Personally, I find the idea that Corbyn is going to get more votes than Miliband did quite unbelievable. Miliband was a clever dork with some interesting policy ideas (some of which the Tories have subsequently stolen) but severely lacking in leadership skills. Unless you compare him with Corbyn of course in which event we are looking at Wellingtonian levels of brilliance (as a general, not so much as a politician).
Corbyn is thick. He has hated this country for decades and supported almost anyone opposed to it or who wished it harm up to and including murderers. He disgusts me. I find those who think he is "nice" really quite deluded. He may be polite but so were many deluded, vicious and ultimately evil despots been in history.
Could not agree more. This is why, when it comes to actually placing an 'X' in the relevant box, the public will give Corbyn the severe beating he so richly deserves. I don't get some of the panic here, even with the polls narrowing. None of those will mean a jot on June the 8th.
ICM a key one as well. Showed a 20% gap in the last one. Are they still considered to be the gold stanard?
Depends what they show next time.
Are we due an ICM tonight?
I think Opinium and ORB close out your current average point - average lead for the week 16.17% - with four polls reflecting Lab manifesto. Compares to 17.38% the previous week.
Later polls tonight should have more recent fieldwork dates and start a new average point.
ICM a key one as well. Showed a 20% gap in the last one. Are they still considered to be the gold stanard?
Depends what they show next time.
Are we due an ICM tonight?
I think Opinium and ORB close out your current average point - average lead for the week 16.17% - with four polls reflecting Lab manifesto. Compares to 17.38% the previous week.
Later polls tonight should have more recent fieldwork dates and start a new average point.
Yeah, the average includes polls three days before and after. So current period ends on the 18th.
Or some lazy sod that has not worked a day and gamed the system gets it all free. It is a recipe for disaster , the rich as ever will avoid it , the feckless will get it free and teh poor sods in hte middle who toil all their life will pay over and over again
I reckon there's something in this, Malc, even for the right-winger. Copied and pasted FPT:
Since people are used to free healthcare I think that voters are going to see the distinction between e.g. dementia and cancer and the way we allocate the risks as essentially unfair.
...
I'm happy that the Tories have tried to grasp a nettle that has been repeatedly kicked (the mixed metaphor may work better as "replanted") into the long grass. And I agree with Mr Meeks that market-based insurance does does not seem to be the cure-all. But I do suspect the National Health & Care Service is the natural long-term direction of travel: not necessarily an optimal solution, but through all the meanders the political currents gently flow this way. Nor am I sure that the Tories should ultimately regret that. The requisite taxation may be despaired of, but it is at least consistent with the "striver's principle" - plenty of older blue-inclined voters dislike the idea of working and saving hard all their lives, to see it all eaten up by costs that the spendthrift or slouch next-door receives for free.
Moreover, if the stinking rich want to pay top dollar to stay in a de luxe care home away from the differently-stinking riff-raff then nobody's going to stop them, though I am not sure they should expect to be subsidised for it.
I tried to calculate the cost of a National Care Service. Labour's cost (in the manifesto) is 3 billion pounds, but I think that is a Diane Abbott calculation.
The cost of the care delivered in the National Care Service I estimated to be 25 billion pounds (some of that money is already in the system, so it doesn't all have to be raised).
I think the additional cost of a National Care Service must realistically be about 10 billion pounds because a large proportion of the residential care is paid privately.
1p on income tax raises about 4 billion, I think.
So the numbers are daunting, and the problem will just worsen with time.
Yes, I saw your calculation before, thanks. The numbers are indeed daunting. But our population pyramid seems to have employed an architect uninhibited either by knowledge of basic trigonometry or any idea what the old folk cost...
Obviously there would be synergies from combining health and social care (e.g. bed-blocking) but I'm sure that's going to be small fry compared to the main event.
Comments
Welcome to pb.com, Mr. McKinstry.
Twas always cold up Nooortthh
I found EICIPM was nicked last time!!!
I prefer the bet I mentioned earlier this p.m.. for Labour to win Bristol West at odds of 7/4, also with Laddies, but DYOR.
If only there was some material to use for name-calling Jeremy or John.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/19/british-voters-rejecting-santa-embracing-scrooge-labour-popularity
And Corbyn jumping to the defence of the rich who get the Winter Fuel Allowance is an even more jaw-dropping moment in this campaign than Farron claiming to be a Euroscpetic. It just runs counter to EVERYTHING he has been trying to persuade us he stands for.
They haven't exceeded 10 points in a poll since the election was called, though.
https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/865955121523568640
Mr. T, I think May and her team aren't very good.
But the alternative is Corbyn.
When you're starving to death and the choice is wet lettuce and a shandy, or dog meat that's been rotting for three weeks and is starting to grow furry fungus, you go for the lettuce.
Voting in GE2017 is simply an IQ test. The threshold is about 60.
I can confirm that from the doorstep.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-voters-fear-friends-and-family-will-disown-them-for-switching-to-tories-huffpost-edelman-focus-group_uk_59205461e4b03b485cb1e86b?1nk
He's rubbing his hands at every Kezia balls up.
Birthdays were even worse though at my infant school. On your birthday, as a special treat, you drank your milk through the special curly drinking straw that the teacher kept behind her desk. I suppose it was rinsed out as well as possible after each use...
Plaid Cymru 10,014 (5,644 in 2012)
Labour 9,962 (10,393 in 2012)
Conservative 8,632 (5,840 in 2012)
Lib Dem 3,615 (5,786 in 2012)
Or, in my best Palpatine impression.." goood, gooooood"
I reckon there's something in this, Malc, even for the right-winger. Copied and pasted FPT:
Since people are used to free healthcare I think that voters are going to see the distinction between e.g. dementia and cancer and the way we allocate the risks as essentially unfair.
...
I'm happy that the Tories have tried to grasp a nettle that has been repeatedly kicked (the mixed metaphor may work better as "replanted") into the long grass. And I agree with Mr Meeks that market-based insurance does does not seem to be the cure-all. But I do suspect the National Health & Care Service is the natural long-term direction of travel: not necessarily an optimal solution, but through all the meanders the political currents gently flow this way. Nor am I sure that the Tories should ultimately regret that. The requisite taxation may be despaired of, but it is at least consistent with the "striver's principle" - plenty of older blue-inclined voters dislike the idea of working and saving hard all their lives, to see it all eaten up by costs that the spendthrift or slouch next-door receives for free.
Moreover, if the stinking rich want to pay top dollar to stay in a de luxe care home away from the differently-stinking riff-raff then nobody's going to stop them, though I am not sure they should expect to be subsidised for it.
Also I got an interesting reply from @rural_voter which I think bears repetition:
It opened with a headline of something like 'Labour wrong on Trident', which frankly could have been a Tory attack, not entirely clear, and I think a picture of a submarine.
Later it changed to something like 'Labour row over Trident', making clear this was Labour arguing with itself.
Now it is 'May attacks Labour over Trident divisions' and a picture of May laughing out loud (at leas that's what the photo looks like)
(Which is what we kept saying in 2010, as it kept happening. And kept happening).
ORB is also largely before anyone would have digested Con manifesto.
Edit: Wasn't you, my apologies @AndyJS!
Usually to the cat.
I think this is a much better way of doing it - year after year young people say they'll vote and then don't - so why should we trust them this time.
Especially when reports suggest registration is low and the GE seems low key - low TV news ratings, no proper TV debates etc.
The cost of the care delivered in the National Care Service I estimated to be 25 billion pounds (some of that money is already in the system, so it doesn't all have to be raised).
I think the additional cost of a National Care Service must realistically be about 10 billion pounds because a large proportion of the residential care is paid privately.
1p on income tax raises about 4 billion, I think.
So the numbers are daunting, and the problem will just worsen with time.
Are we due an ICM tonight?
They cannot be 28/1 (b365) in D&R in my book. It could be a 3 way marginal
I don't know if he has been able to fix this. It will not be easy. Models need data and the data comes from the pollsters. If they are wrong the models are wrong.
Personally, I find the idea that Corbyn is going to get more votes than Miliband did quite unbelievable. Miliband was a clever dork with some interesting policy ideas (some of which the Tories have subsequently stolen) but severely lacking in leadership skills. Unless you compare him with Corbyn of course in which event we are looking at Wellingtonian levels of brilliance (as a general, not so much as a politician).
Corbyn is thick. He has hated this country for decades and supported almost anyone opposed to it or who wished it harm up to and including murderers. He disgusts me. I find those who think he is "nice" really quite deluded. He may be polite but so were many deluded, vicious and ultimately evil despots been in history.
I use this Avatar for a reason. Ok quite a few reasons.
No, the Tories should be okay, but they need to avoid any more blunders like the care-for-elderly stuff. May and her underlings are clearly intellectually unequipped for difficult, highly sensitive politics. Yes, she was roundly mocked for only repeating 'strong and stable' ad nauseam, but in hindsight Lynton knew what he was doing and instructed her to do this for a reason.
I'd laugh if the Tories were up (although I seriously doubt they will be)
Single figures lead not out of the question.
Still think the planned IRA stuff will move polls back to May by polling day
JICIPM!
The big question now is how far the Labour surge can be trusted...
IN FAVOUR
1. Labour's position has improved significantly in not all, but certainly the majority of, the polls - up by perhaps 6-7% since March.
2. The campaign concentrates public attention on the two leading parties, which is very beneficial to Labour: it gets extra attention as the potential alternative Government, and has the chance to squeeze the votes of media-starved smaller parties. Of the alternatives to the big two, only the SNP is regarded highly and it, of course, is only contesting 9% of the available seats.
AGAINST
1. On the secondary questions, despite some improvement for Labour in some surveys since the campaign started, the party is still a very long way behind the Conservatives. In the same Ipsos poll that was the first of the campaign to put Labour on 34%, Theresa May also scored the highest approval rating ever recorded for any sitting PM in that series (stretching back to 1979) at this stage of an election campaign. The secondary questions, on economic competence and leadership, were a better guide to the outcome of the election than headline VI last time around - and we can probably factor in the Tory lead on managing Brexit in 2017 as well.
2. Labour is much more dependent for its vote share on the support of very young voters and previous non-voters than are the Conservatives. If the pollsters showing Labour doing best have miscalculated their turnout weightings (and ICM have as good as accused them of doing so already) then Labour will poll significantly lower than the most optimistic projections.
3. It is also possible that some of the pollsters may have got their 2015 vote share weightings wrong as well, causing them to over-estimate Labour support and under-estimate that for the Liberal Democrats. This is an issue that has previously been discussed on PB.
(TBC)
IN ADDITION
A minority of the pollsters are less generous to Labour: ICM, GfK and Kantar TNS all continue to record Labour scores below 30%. They may catch up eventually and end up herding with the others, but they may not - in which case, both sides may be, but one must be, wrong.
My thinking on this subject is, at present, that Labour can potentially make 35% or perhaps a little higher than that, if they can squeeze their fair share of votes out of the third parties and gain the majority of the support from the relatively small numbers of voters who are truly undecided, or still open to changing sides. But in order for this to be true, we have to assume first that the Tories' large advantages on leadership, Brexit and economic competence are all, somehow, far less relevant than they have been at every other election for the last 30 years; second, that Labour's 2015 vote will firm up to a similar extent to that of the Conservatives, i.e. that the vast majority of Miliband's supporters will vote for Corbyn and very few will desert; and third, that Labour's new support amongst the young and previous non-voters will actually turn out. That's a not insignificant series of hurdles to clear.
Sporting's mid spreads are Tories 396 (majority 142), Labour 167.
Spreadex's mid spreads are Tories 395 (majority 140), Labour 167.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/865964393854533632
Later polls tonight should have more recent fieldwork dates and start a new average point.
Squeaky bum time?
Obviously there would be synergies from combining health and social care (e.g. bed-blocking) but I'm sure that's going to be small fry compared to the main event.