No, the Tories should be okay, but they need to avoid any more blunders like the care-for-elderly stuff. May and her underlings are clearly intellectually unequipped for difficult, highly sensitive politics. Yes, she was roundly mocked for only repeating 'strong and stable' ad nauseam, but in hindsight Lynton knew what he was doing and instructed her to do this for a reason.
Wibbly, wobbly the idea that the UK has an educated population. 33% Corbyn? He should get one vote and one vote only - Mrs Corbyn is obliged to vote for him. He shouldn't vote for himself, and the idea that anyone else might do so is ridiculous. Now of course people are an odd bunch, but 33%!
If the Tories really are losing votes, the votes that we thought might mean unlikely gains in places like... Dagenham and Rainham, the Kippers might see their chances of a seat increase..
They cannot be 28/1 (b365) in D&R in my book. It could be a 3 way marginal
I have a feeling the pollsters are a bit clueless at the moment. That is why we are witnessing the re-emergence of the "herding". No one wants to be wrong- on their own.
I have a feeling the pollsters are a bit clueless at the moment. That is why we are witnessing the re-emergence of the "herding". No one wants to be wrong- on their own.
They actually seem to be moving together, rather than converging on a mean.
So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.
I'd bet £50 at evens (2.0) if you want that her majority is 65 or more (the mid-point of your range).
But I believe 40 would be plenty to get business through the HoC. Thatcher had that sort of majority in 1979.
She sacked Pym for warning of the dangers of large majorities, i.e. the 140 she got in 1983. After 1983, she gave the impression of power having gone to her head so I think Pym was right. If we must continue with FPTP, majorities should be limited. No idea how though.
The spread betting markets haven' moved on that Opinium poll.
Sporting's mid spreads are Tories 396 (majority 142), Labour 167. Spreadex's mid spreads are Tories 395 (majority 140), Labour 167.
That's not surprising, PfP. The spread is so large that the prices are a bit sticky - kind of like a brick on a piece of elastic, it doesn't react on the first few tugs and then shoots forward.
The Betfair seat and %age markets are a bit more sensitive, and I'm surprised to see that favorite band at 2/1 is still 25 to 30%. Since Labour are striking consistently above 30% now that looks out of line.
The Betfair Labour seats market looks similarly 'out of date'.
So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.
The Tories panicked relentlessly in 1987, even when it was obvious they'd win big.
We had a real vote 16 days ago. The Tories did better than any government has done since the Thirties.
And Corbyn was still creeping up BEFORE the Dementia Tax McClusterfuck. Fab.
Residual of their magic money tree bounce.
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher bounce still to come.
Single figures lead not out of the question.
Still think the planned IRA stuff will move polls back to May by polling day
The problem is that if the Tories go full throttle on Corbyn now it might smack of panic. Labour could claim, with some plausibility, that the Tories have resorted to gutter politics because May's own failings have been exposed. I think the Tories should just keep schtum from now on and count the days.
For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh
She would have gained 26 seats and 2 additional years to reach a resolution on Brexit with her own personal mandate. I think she will do better but actually the latter two points would justify this election.
For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh
She would have gained 26 seats and 2 additional years to reach a resolution on Brexit with her own personal mandate. I think she will do better but actually the latter two points would justify this election.
At least TSE will stop calling her "unelected pound shop Gordo"
I think Professor Fisher was predicting a Tory majority some months out for much the same reasons that Rodd did on here. Unfortunately, as the election approached, his predictions were based on the polling and models like Baxter which significantly underestimated both the total quantity of the Tory vote and its increased efficiency so by the election itself he was way out.
I don't know if he has been able to fix this. It will not be easy. Models need data and the data comes from the pollsters. If they are wrong the models are wrong.
Personally, I find the idea that Corbyn is going to get more votes than Miliband did quite unbelievable. Miliband was a clever dork with some interesting policy ideas (some of which the Tories have subsequently stolen) but severely lacking in leadership skills. Unless you compare him with Corbyn of course in which event we are looking at Wellingtonian levels of brilliance (as a general, not so much as a politician).
Corbyn is thick. He has hated this country for decades and supported almost anyone opposed to it or who wished it harm up to and including murderers. He disgusts me. I find those who think he is "nice" really quite deluded. He may be polite but so were many deluded, vicious and ultimately evil despots been in history.
Could not agree more. This is why, when it comes to actually placing an 'X' in the relevant box, the public will give Corbyn the severe beating he so richly deserves. I don't get some of the panic here, even with the polls narrowing. None of those will mean a jot on June the 8th.
But Fisher DIDN'T forecast a Tory majority, far from it, he gave them only a pathetically meagre 6% chance of achieving a majority. Please can we stop perpetuating this falsehood.
Or some lazy sod that has not worked a day and gamed the system gets it all free. It is a recipe for disaster , the rich as ever will avoid it , the feckless will get it free and teh poor sods in hte middle who toil all their life will pay over and over again
I reckon there's something in this, Malc, even for the right-winger. Copied and pasted FPT:
Since people are used to free healthcare I think that voters are going to see the distinction between e.g. dementia and cancer and the way we allocate the risks as essentially unfair.
...
I'm happy that the Tories have tried to grasp a nettle that has been repeatedly kicked (the mixed metaphor may work better as "replanted") into the long grass. And I agree with Mr Meeks that market-based insurance does does not seem to be the cure-all. But I do suspect the National Health & Care Service is the natural long-term direction of travel: not necessarily an optimal solution, but through all the meanders the political currents gently flow this way. Nor am I sure that the Tories should ultimately regret that. The requisite taxation may be despaired of, but it is at least consistent with the "striver's principle" - plenty of older blue-inclined voters dislike the idea of working and saving hard all their lives, to see it all eaten up by costs that the spendthrift or slouch next-door receives for free.
Moreover, if the stinking rich want to pay top dollar to stay in a de luxe care home away from the differently-stinking riff-raff then nobody's going to stop them, though I am not sure they should expect to be subsidised for it.
Also I got an interesting reply from @rural_voter which I think bears repetition:
If there's to be some payment for end of life care it's more sensible for individuals to pay the equivalent of an excess on an insurance policy. Except for offering to leave behind part of the house value, May is asking us to take on the 'tail risk'. She's been really badly-advised/she's mad (delete as applicable).
Thing is that it is not free, I pay an absolute fortune in tax and NI and have done for over 40 years, currently thousands a month. I am paying through the nose and going to get zilch and have to pay for it again if needed. Far better I stick a huge wedge every month into a policy that covers me for real rather than being scammed for 40+ years and then told I am going to pay again.
For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh
She would have gained 26 seats and 2 additional years to reach a resolution on Brexit with her own personal mandate. I think she will do better but actually the latter two points would justify this election.
At least TSE will stop calling her "unelected pound shop Gordo"
I admire your confidence. I suspect the next epithet won't be any more generous.
We really need ICM and ComRes who weight according to actual turnout by demographics last time - rather than trusting what people say re likelihood to vote.
I think this is a much better way of doing it - year after year young people say they'll vote and then don't - so why should we trust them this time.
Especially when reports suggest registration is low and the GE seems low key - low TV news ratings, no proper TV debates etc.
If registration is low Corbyn Lab is fooked.
I have been involved in registering over 200 at JCP and local college.
So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.
The Tories panicked relentlessly in 1987, even when it was obvious they'd win big.
We had a real vote 16 days ago. The Tories did better than any government has done since the Thirties.
Sure, but I don't recall the 1987 Tories doing anything as daft, in terms of announcements, as Dementia Taxing Yorkshire Biddies And Taking Their Coal Away.
Such a ghastly clanger. A fart in the elevator of British electoral politics.
But you have a good point about the locals, of course.
The 1987 campaign was pretty poor, but it didn't affect the outcome.
Mr. T, depends which bit of Yorkshire. Houses cost a fair bit more in Harrogate than Barnsley.
I'm not impressed by the policy, and have said as much quite a bit, but there is a chance it could actually thread the needle of annoying those whose votes May doesn't need whilst enticing/pleasing those whose votes she does.
My suspicion is it'll harm her campaign and cost a dozen or more seats. The issue is an important one, but the policy is not one I like.
Mr. T, depends which bit of Yorkshire. Houses cost a fair bit more in Harrogate than Barnsley.
I'm not impressed by the policy, and have said as much quite a bit, but there is a chance it could actually thread the needle of annoying those whose votes May doesn't need whilst enticing/pleasing those whose votes she does.
My suspicion is it'll harm her campaign and cost a dozen or more seats. The issue is an important one, but the policy is not one I like.
I think SO had a good point on this - that the policy we end up seeing on the statute books may very well be different from the one proposed. At least it is now on the table.
And Corbyn was still creeping up BEFORE the Dementia Tax McClusterfuck. Fab.
Residual of their magic money tree bounce.
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher bounce still to come.
Single figures lead not out of the question.
Still think the planned IRA stuff will move polls back to May by polling day
The problem is that if the Tories go full throttle on Corbyn now it might smack of panic. Labour could claim, with some plausibility, that the Tories have resorted to gutter politics because May's own failings have been exposed. I think the Tories should just keep schtum from now on and count the days.
"I’ll always be a Corbynite. Jeremy was the best prime minister we never had
"The rightwing smear against Jeremy Corbyn angered me. But his bravery and integrity in the face of it was an inspiration..."
We really need ICM and ComRes who weight according to actual turnout by demographics last time - rather than trusting what people say re likelihood to vote.
I think this is a much better way of doing it - year after year young people say they'll vote and then don't - so why should we trust them this time.
Especially when reports suggest registration is low and the GE seems low key - low TV news ratings, no proper TV debates etc.
If registration is low Corbyn Lab is fooked.
I have been involved in registering over 200 at JCP and local college.
Doesnt mean they will vote mind
I am still not sure how pollsters measure people who do not normally vote, but will vote this time - even as little as 2% of the electors.
Surely, they will not register to be in the panels.
Mr. T, depends which bit of Yorkshire. Houses cost a fair bit more in Harrogate than Barnsley.
I'm not impressed by the policy, and have said as much quite a bit, but there is a chance it could actually thread the needle of annoying those whose votes May doesn't need whilst enticing/pleasing those whose votes she does.
My suspicion is it'll harm her campaign and cost a dozen or more seats. The issue is an important one, but the policy is not one I like.
The only good thing about that announcement was the sense that TMay is prepared to tackle difficult issues. But it was the wrong policy announced at the wrong time in entirely the wrong way. And the winter fuel Scots thing will deeply annoy a lot of northerners - the voters TMay is relying on to take those heartland Labour seats.
For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh
ORB on 29th April had it Tory 42% Labour 31% so the new ORB would see the Tories up 4% on that and Labour up 3%, so if anything a 0.5% move to the Tories
The poll was also taken 17th-18th and manifesto launch was 18th so included 1 day of reaction
You are also ignoring regional swing, there is only a swing of 2% from Lab to Con in the South East and London and 0.5% in the South West, but 10% in the North East, 7% in the North West, 5.5% in Yorkshire and the Humber, 7% in the East Midlands, 7% in the West Midlands and 8% in Wales so even that 2.7% national swing would see a far bigger swing in the marginal rich North, Midlands and Wales https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
And Corbyn was still creeping up BEFORE the Dementia Tax McClusterfuck. Fab.
Residual of their magic money tree bounce.
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher bounce still to come.
Single figures lead not out of the question.
Still think the planned IRA stuff will move polls back to May by polling day
The problem is that if the Tories go full throttle on Corbyn now it might smack of panic. Labour could claim, with some plausibility, that the Tories have resorted to gutter politics because May's own failings have been exposed. I think the Tories should just keep schtum from now on and count the days.
"I’ll always be a Corbynite. Jeremy was the best prime minister we never had
"The rightwing smear against Jeremy Corbyn angered me. But his bravery and integrity in the face of it was an inspiration..."
I raised the possibility the other day that Mrs May might actually prefer a majority of say 60-80 tan one of say 120-140. Margaret Thatcher sometimes struggled with a very large majority, which tends to foster devil-may-care rebellion amongst the back benchers. Although quite how one engineers a smaller majority is a most difficult one to fathom. A majority of anything over 40ish is entirely bullet proof in terms of by-election losses/defections and therefore ensures a full 5 year term.
I think Professor Fisher was predicting a Tory majority some months out for much the same reasons that Rodd did on here. Unfortunately, as the election approached, his predictions were based on the polling and models like Baxter which significantly underestimated both the total quantity of the Tory vote and its increased efficiency so by the election itself he was way out.
I don't know if he has been able to fix this. It will not be easy. Models need data and the data comes from the pollsters. If they are wrong the models are wrong.
Personally, I find the idea that Corbyn is going to get more votes than Miliband did quite unbelievable. Miliband was a clever dork with some interesting policy ideas (some of which the Tories have subsequently stolen) but severely lacking in leadership skills. Unless you compare him with Corbyn of course in which event we are looking at Wellingtonian levels of brilliance (as a general, not so much as a politician).
Corbyn is thick. He has hated this country for decades and supported almost anyone opposed to it or who wished it harm up to and including murderers. He disgusts me. I find those who think he is "nice" really quite deluded. He may be polite but so were many deluded, vicious and ultimately evil despots been in history.
Could not agree more. This is why, when it comes to actually placing an 'X' in the relevant box, the public will give Corbyn the severe beating he so richly deserves. I don't get some of the panic here, even with the polls narrowing. None of those will mean a jot on June the 8th.
But Fisher DIDN'T forecast a Tory majority, far from it, he gave them only a pathetically meagre 6% chance of achieving a majority. Please can we stop perpetuating this falsehood.
FICWNBPM (Fisher is Crap will never be Polling Maestro)
I raised the possibility the other day that Mrs May might actually prefer a majority of say 60-80 tan one of say 120-140. Margaret Thatcher sometimes struggled with a very large majority, which tends to foster devil-may-care rebellion amongst the back benchers. Although quite how one engineers a smaller majority is a most difficult one to fathom. A majority of anything over 40ish is entirely bullet proof in terms of by-election losses/defections and therefore ensures a full 5 year term.
And it doesn't constrain them as much as a 'freebies for all' manifesto would.
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?
Labour is quietly confident of keeping Cardiff seats and giving N Cardiff Tory a fright.
Is that the same way they were quietly confident last time about holding Gower and Morley and thought they would give the Tories a fright in Nuneaton?
Labour romping it with the unemployed, the young, the do not votes and young C2DEs that pollsters can't find - every demographic that doesn't actually vote.
Mr. T, some Northerners. I don't actually care about the Winter Fuel difference. Devolution means having different policies, or there's no point to it.
There was a top story in the Yorkshire Post, I think (don't read papers), about the Conservatives offering more money for Yorkshire than is provided by current 'EU' funding. That sort of thing flies below the national radar, but may go down well locally.
Mr. 195, whilst I agree the lead remains large, the direction of travel is clearly pro-Labour.
Mr. D, I agree, but the policy in the manifesto is the one that will influence voting.
For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh
ORB on 29th April had it Tory 42% Labour 31% so the new ORB would see the Tories up 4% on that and Labour up 3%, so if anything a 0.5% move to the Tories
The poll was also taken 17th-18th and manifesto launch was 18th so included 1 day of reaction
You are also ignoring regional swing, there is only a swing of 2% from Lab to Con in the South East and London and 0.5% in the South West, but 10% in the North East, 7% in the North West, 5.5% in Yorkshire and the Humber, 7% in the East Midlands, 7% in the West Midlands and 8% in Wales so even that 2.7% national swing would see a far bigger swing in the marginal rich North, Midlands and Wales https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
Why are you peddling regional swings until the 5th May when you are reporting national polls until the 18th May ?
By the way, did Le Pen catch up with Macron in the end ? In both rounds.
I think Professor Fisher was predicting a Tory majority some months out for much the same reasons that Rodd did on here. Unfortunately, as the election approached, his predictions were based on the polling and models like Baxter which significantly underestimated both the total quantity of the Tory vote and its increased efficiency so by the election itself he was way out.
I don't know if he has been able to fix this. It will not be easy. Models need data and the data comes from the pollsters. If they are wrong the models are wrong.
Personally, I find the idea that Corbyn is going to get more votes than Miliband did quite unbelievable. Miliband was a clever dork with some interesting policy ideas (some of which the Tories have subsequently stolen) but severely lacking in leadership skills. Unless you compare him with Corbyn of course in which event we are looking at Wellingtonian levels of brilliance (as a general, not so much as a politician).
Corbyn is thick. He has hated this country for decades and supported almost anyone opposed to it or who wished it harm up to and including murderers. He disgusts me. I find those who think he is "nice" really quite deluded. He may be polite but so were many deluded, vicious and ultimately evil despots been in history.
Could not agree more. This is why, when it comes to actually placing an 'X' in the relevant box, the public will give Corbyn the severe beating he so richly deserves. I don't get some of the panic here, even with the polls narrowing. None of those will mean a jot on June the 8th.
But Fisher DIDN'T forecast a Tory majority, far from it, he gave them only a pathetically meagre 6% chance of achieving a majority. Please can we stop perpetuating this falsehood.
FICWNBPM (Fisher is Crap will never be Polling Maestro)
It's a good job you had no plans to attend PB.com's pre-election drinks party BJO - it would have been handbags at dusk between yourself and OGH.
For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh
ORB on 29th April had it Tory 42% Labour 31% so the new ORB would see the Tories up 4% on that and Labour up 3%, so if anything a 0.5% move to the Tories
The poll was also taken 17th-18th and manifesto launch was 18th so included 1 day of reaction
You are also ignoring regional swing, there is only a swing of 2% from Lab to Con in the South East and London and 0.5% in the South West, but 10% in the North East, 7% in the North West, 5.5% in Yorkshire and the Humber, 7% in the East Midlands, 7% in the West Midlands and 8% in Wales so even that 2.7% national swing would see a far bigger swing in the marginal rich North, Midlands and Wales https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
Why are you peddling regional swings until the 5th May when you are reporting national polls until the 18th May ?
By the way, did Le Pen catch up with Macron in the end ? In both rounds.
Trashing UNS has been a common theme here in the last few weeks.
So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.
The Tories panicked relentlessly in 1987, even when it was obvious they'd win big.
We had a real vote 16 days ago. The Tories did better than any government has done since the Thirties.
Sure, but I don't recall the 1987 Tories doing anything as daft, in terms of announcements, as Dementia Taxing Yorkshire Biddies And Taking Their Coal Away.
Such a ghastly clanger. A fart in the elevator of British electoral politics.
But you have a good point about the locals, of course.
However the policy is a good one.
That doesn't of course mean it will play well - poll tax wasn't a bad policy after all.
I think they'll be fine though and have bet on 50%+ in a small way.
So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.
I'd bet £50 at evens (2.0) if you want that her majority is 65 or more (the mid-point of your range).
But I believe 40 would be plenty to get business through the HoC. Thatcher had that sort of majority in 1979.
She sacked Pym for warning of the dangers of large majorities, i.e. the 140 she got in 1983. After 1983, she gave the impression of power having gone to her head so I think Pym was right. If we must continue with FPTP, majorities should be limited. No idea how though.
STV for 600 seats, with the largest party getting a 50 seat bonus. It also means a government can bring in 50 people who can benefit a government, but dont have to be enobled first.
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.
Oh dear.
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heels
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.
I remember school milk. And shudder.
Is there anyone who remembers it fondly. Vile and forced to drink it. I refused which annoyed the teachers as much as me as they had to sit there enjoying the Mexican stand off as their break disappeared.
46% would be the biggest Tory voteshare since Heath in 1970, bigger than Thatcher, Cameron or Major ever got
would be the biggest vote share for any party since 1970. No one has got even 44% since then so whilst not impossible it does seem a little unlikely that the Tories will get that sort of score.
T. May: 48 / 31 J. Corbyn: 27 / 45 T. Farron: 16 / 37 P. Nuttall: 10 / 46
If those favorability ratings are anywhere near the actual result, which would be a little surprising given they add up to 101% and do not even include Sturgeon, I think Tim Farron would be a very happy man.
I think Professor Fisher was predicting a Tory majority some months out for much the same reasons that Rodd did on here. Unfortunately, as the election approached, his predictions were based on the polling and models like Baxter which significantly underestimated both the total quantity of the Tory vote and its increased efficiency so by the election itself he was way out.
I don't know if he has been able to fix this. It will not be easy. Models need data and the data comes from the pollsters. If they are wrong the models are wrong.
Personally, I find the idea that Corbyn is going to get more votes than Miliband did quite unbelievable. Miliband was a clever dork with some interesting policy ideas (some of which the Tories have subsequently stolen) but severely lacking in leadership skills. Unless you compare him with Corbyn of course in which event we are looking at Wellingtonian levels of brilliance (as a general, not so much as a politician).
Corbyn is thick. He has hated this country for decades and supported almost anyone opposed to it or who wished it harm up to and including murderers. He disgusts me. I find those who think he is "nice" really quite deluded. He may be polite but so were many deluded, vicious and ultimately evil despots been in history.
Could not agree more. This is why, when it comes to actually placing an 'X' in the relevant box, the public will give Corbyn the severe beating he so richly deserves. I don't get some of the panic here, even with the polls narrowing. None of those will mean a jot on June the 8th.
But Fisher DIDN'T forecast a Tory majority, far from it, he gave them only a pathetically meagre 6% chance of achieving a majority. Please can we stop perpetuating this falsehood.
+1 All the forecasts were way out in 2015. The polls, less so
For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh
ORB on 29th April had it Tory 42% Labour 31% so the new ORB would see the Tories up 4% on that and Labour up 3%, so if anything a 0.5% move to the Tories
The poll was also taken 17th-18th and manifesto launch was 18th so included 1 day of reaction
You are also ignoring regional swing, there is only a swing of 2% from Lab to Con in the South East and London and 0.5% in the South West, but 10% in the North East, 7% in the North West, 5.5% in Yorkshire and the Humber, 7% in the East Midlands, 7% in the West Midlands and 8% in Wales so even that 2.7% national swing would see a far bigger swing in the marginal rich North, Midlands and Wales https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
Why are you peddling regional swings until the 5th May when you are reporting national polls until the 18th May ?
By the way, did Le Pen catch up with Macron in the end ? In both rounds.
I posted an ORB poll from the same period as the yougov regional poll which was little different from the ORB poll tonight and ask President Hillary Clinton how important winning the national popular vote was to her victory rather than winning most states!
Of course like the US and unlike France we have a FPTP system with no runoff where the winner is determined not by the national popular vote but on most seats won and of course in the regions and departements Le Pen did win most in the first round even if she lost the popular vote
So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.
The Tories panicked relentlessly in 1987, even when it was obvious they'd win big.
We had a real vote 16 days ago. The Tories did better than any government has done since the Thirties.
Sure, but I don't recall the 1987 Tories doing anything as daft, in terms of announcements, as Dementia Taxing Yorkshire Biddies And Taking Their Coal Away.
Such a ghastly clanger. A fart in the elevator of British electoral politics.
But you have a good point about the locals, of course.
The 1987 campaign was pretty poor, but it didn't affect the outcome.
Well, as I keep saying this is an f*ing disaster for the Tories. It will get worse when they start to try and implement it and backbenchers actually focus on the details of a huge mass enforced, equity release scheme run by the City with good knows what charges and interest and hard luck stories.
I suspect this will not do enough damage to swing the election. But it has been the one thing so far that could be called a potential 'game changer'.
My partner is incandescent as am I. How many others are?
T. May: 48 / 31 J. Corbyn: 27 / 45 T. Farron: 16 / 37 P. Nuttall: 10 / 46
If those favorability ratings are anywhere near the actual result, which would be a little surprising given they add up to 101% and do not even include Sturgeon, I think Tim Farron would be a very happy man.
Whooosh
The ratings for T May are 48 fav 31unfav 21 Dont Know
Labour romping it with the unemployed, the young, the do not votes and young C2DEs that pollsters can't find - every demographic that doesn't actually vote.
Not entirely convinced by your Left/Right categorisation. I still think that within the LibDems, all those who might go to Corbyn have gone. Those who remain are the more right-leaning, those who would be truly appalled at the notion of Prime Minister Corbyn, and who might yet hold their nose and vote for the Tories in a wholly polarised election (as this seems to have become).
T. May: 48 / 31 J. Corbyn: 27 / 45 T. Farron: 16 / 37 P. Nuttall: 10 / 46
If those favorability ratings are anywhere near the actual result, which would be a little surprising given they add up to 101% and do not even include Sturgeon, I think Tim Farron would be a very happy man.
Whooosh
The ratings for T May are 48 fav 31unfav 21 Dont Know
They only add up to 100 across not down
I think they know that (given they said it would be surprising), they are just postulating how Tim would feel if those were somehow the results.
46% would be the biggest Tory voteshare since Heath in 1970, bigger than Thatcher, Cameron or Major ever got
would be the biggest vote share for any party since 1970. No one has got even 44% since then so whilst not impossible it does seem a little unlikely that the Tories will get that sort of score.
Not necessarily if you add the pre 2015 Labour voters who went UKIP in 2015 and are now backing May to the 37% of 2015 Tory voters
T. May: 48 / 31 J. Corbyn: 27 / 45 T. Farron: 16 / 37 P. Nuttall: 10 / 46
If those favorability ratings are anywhere near the actual result, which would be a little surprising given they add up to 101% and do not even include Sturgeon, I think Tim Farron would be a very happy man.
Whooosh
The ratings for T May are 48 fav 31unfav 21 Dont Know
They only add up to 100 across not down
There is a school of thought that leader favorability ratings come closer to predicting results than opinion polls do. Not sure I agree but it worked in 2015.
However, unless Sturgeon is included it's hard to see how much use that could be here.
Former Labour peer Lord Sugar says he will vote for Theresa May in the General Election Lord Sugar has thrown his support behind Theresa May ahead of the eleciton Former Labour peer quit the party in 2015 over its lurch to the Left He has torn into Mr Corbyn's leadership - branding him a lunatic
Labour romping it with the unemployed, the young, the do not votes and young C2DEs that pollsters can't find - every demographic that doesn't actually vote.
Not entirely convinced by your Left/Right categorisation. I still think that within the LibDems, all those who might go to Corbyn have gone. Those who remain are the more right-leaning, those who would be truly appalled at the notion of Prime Minister Corbyn, and who might yet hold their nose and vote for the Tories in a wholly polarised election (as this seems to have become).
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.
Oh dear.
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heels
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.
I remember school milk. And shudder.
Is there anyone who remembers it fondly. Vile and forced to drink it. I refused which annoyed the teachers as much as me as they had to sit there enjoying the Mexican stand off as their break disappeared.
I certainly do , apart from a few odd occasions. Was most enjoyable.
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.
Oh dear.
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heels
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.
I remember school milk. And shudder.
Is there anyone who remembers it fondly. Vile and forced to drink it. I refused which annoyed the teachers as much as me as they had to sit there enjoying the Mexican stand off as their break disappeared.
I certainly do , apart from a few odd occasions. Was most enjoyable.
46% would be the biggest Tory voteshare since Heath in 1970, bigger than Thatcher, Cameron or Major ever got
would be the biggest vote share for any party since 1970. No one has got even 44% since then so whilst not impossible it does seem a little unlikely that the Tories will get that sort of score.
Would love to see TSE's reaction if - if! - Tessy easily outpolls his heart-throb Dave on Election Day. Love it!
Labour romping it with the unemployed, the young, the do not votes and young C2DEs that pollsters can't find - every demographic that doesn't actually vote.
Not entirely convinced by your Left/Right categorisation. I still think that within the LibDems, all those who might go to Corbyn have gone. Those who remain are the more right-leaning, those who would be truly appalled at the notion of Prime Minister Corbyn, and who might yet hold their nose and vote for the Tories in a wholly polarised election (as this seems to have become).
Yes,I pretty much agree.
My feeling is that 35% of the absolute ceiling of Corbynism and die hard Labour loyalty. I too can't see many Lib Dems who spurned the charms of Ed Miliband falling for Jezza.
May seems to have pleasantly surprised the soft-left/centre left in recent days.
The Greens though are nailed on Jezbollah. Their vote will move en masse - most of it in completely useless places.
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.
Oh dear.
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heels
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.
I remember school milk. And shudder.
Is there anyone who remembers it fondly. Vile and forced to drink it. I refused which annoyed the teachers as much as me as they had to sit there enjoying the Mexican stand off as their break disappeared.
I certainly do , apart from a few odd occasions. Was most enjoyable.
I refused to drink it from day one
Ours came from real cows though, when everything was organic
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.
Oh dear.
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heels
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.
I remember school milk. And shudder.
Is there anyone who remembers it fondly. Vile and forced to drink it. I refused which annoyed the teachers as much as me as they had to sit there enjoying the Mexican stand off as their break disappeared.
I certainly do , apart from a few odd occasions. Was most enjoyable.
But Scotland is always freezing isn't it? So your milk would have been nice and cold. In sunny Sussex it was like drinking warm, liquid cheese.
The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?
Labour is quietly confident of keeping Cardiff seats and giving N Cardiff Tory a fright.
Is that the same way they were quietly confident last time about holding Gower and Morley and thought they would give the Tories a fright in Nuneaton?
He's right - Labour are going to keep their three Cardiff seats and the swing in Cardiff North is likely to be below average.
The battleground seats in Wales are the north-east four, Ynys, Bridgend and the two Newports.
So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.
The Tories panicked relentlessly in 1987, even when it was obvious they'd win big.
We had a real vote 16 days ago. The Tories did better than any government has done since the Thirties.
Sure, but I don't recall the 1987 Tories doing anything as daft, in terms of announcements, as Dementia Taxing Yorkshire Biddies And Taking Their Coal Away.
Such a ghastly clanger. A fart in the elevator of British electoral politics.
But you have a good point about the locals, of course.
The 1987 campaign was pretty poor, but it didn't affect the outcome.
Well, as I keep saying this is an f*ing disaster for the Tories. It will get worse when they start to try and implement it and backbenchers actually focus on the details of a huge mass enforced, equity release scheme run by the City with good knows what charges and interest and hard luck stories.
I suspect this will not do enough damage to swing the election. But it has been the one thing so far that could be called a potential 'game changer'.
My partner is incandescent as am I. How many others are?
I could be adversely affected. I have parents in their seventies. Dementia runs in my family. I may inherit less, and have less to pass on, due to these proposals. But, I'll still be well off. So, I don't see why I should be enraged.
Comments
T. May: 48 / 31
J. Corbyn: 27 / 45
T. Farron: 16 / 37
P. Nuttall: 10 / 46
But I believe 40 would be plenty to get business through the HoC. Thatcher had that sort of majority in 1979.
She sacked Pym for warning of the dangers of large majorities, i.e. the 140 she got in 1983. After 1983, she gave the impression of power having gone to her head so I think Pym was right. If we must continue with FPTP, majorities should be limited. No idea how though.
Turnout could also make things a bit skew-whiff.
The Betfair seat and %age markets are a bit more sensitive, and I'm surprised to see that favorite band at 2/1 is still 25 to 30%. Since Labour are striking consistently above 30% now that looks out of line.
The Betfair Labour seats market looks similarly 'out of date'.
We had a real vote 16 days ago. The Tories did better than any government has done since the Thirties.
I have been involved in registering over 200 at JCP and local college.
Doesnt mean they will vote mind
https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/865966746036879360
ROFLMAO
How many tricks can you list from this clip...
http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001
[pretends to shoot an invisible target]
I'm not impressed by the policy, and have said as much quite a bit, but there is a chance it could actually thread the needle of annoying those whose votes May doesn't need whilst enticing/pleasing those whose votes she does.
My suspicion is it'll harm her campaign and cost a dozen or more seats. The issue is an important one, but the policy is not one I like.
"The rightwing smear against Jeremy Corbyn angered me. But his bravery and integrity in the face of it was an inspiration..."
...only kidding!
Surely, they will not register to be in the panels.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
The poll was also taken 17th-18th and manifesto launch was 18th so included 1 day of reaction
You are also ignoring regional swing, there is only a swing of 2% from Lab to Con in the South East and London and 0.5% in the South West, but 10% in the North East, 7% in the North West, 5.5% in Yorkshire and the Humber, 7% in the East Midlands, 7% in the West Midlands and 8% in Wales so even that 2.7% national swing would see a far bigger swing in the marginal rich North, Midlands and Wales
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
A majority of anything over 40ish is entirely bullet proof in terms of by-election losses/defections and therefore ensures a full 5 year term.
The Right
Con 46 (+8)
UKIP 5 (-9)
The Left
Labour 33 (+4)
Lib Dems 7 (-1)
Greens 2 (-3)
That tells us where the vote is moving.
Labour romping it with the unemployed, the young, the do not votes and young C2DEs that pollsters can't find - every demographic that doesn't actually vote.
There was a top story in the Yorkshire Post, I think (don't read papers), about the Conservatives offering more money for Yorkshire than is provided by current 'EU' funding. That sort of thing flies below the national radar, but may go down well locally.
Mr. 195, whilst I agree the lead remains large, the direction of travel is clearly pro-Labour.
Mr. D, I agree, but the policy in the manifesto is the one that will influence voting.
By the way, did Le Pen catch up with Macron in the end ? In both rounds.
That doesn't of course mean it will play well - poll tax wasn't a bad policy after all.
I think they'll be fine though and have bet on 50%+ in a small way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKotW13Id0w
One is a Kipper, one is a Kipper in a kilt.
Can you spot the differences?
https://twitter.com/murrayf00te/status/865890001413910528
Get a reporter to ask Corbyn whether he personally supports the Monarchy.
When he gives waffly answer "it's not policy / we're not campaigning on it" then press let fly.
Of course like the US and unlike France we have a FPTP system with no runoff where the winner is determined not by the national popular vote but on most seats won and of course in the regions and departements Le Pen did win most in the first round even if she lost the popular vote
I suspect this will not do enough damage to swing the election. But it has been the one thing so far that could be called a potential 'game changer'.
My partner is incandescent as am I. How many others are?
The ratings for T May are 48 fav 31unfav 21 Dont Know
They only add up to 100 across not down
Must've been fashionable in London in 2015
The bed wetting continues...
Sean, go down the pub and chill out man!
However, unless Sturgeon is included it's hard to see how much use that could be here.
Corbyn, you're fired!
Former Labour peer Lord Sugar says he will vote for Theresa May in the General Election
Lord Sugar has thrown his support behind Theresa May ahead of the eleciton
Former Labour peer quit the party in 2015 over its lurch to the Left
He has torn into Mr Corbyn's leadership - branding him a lunatic
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4525058/Lord-Sugar-says-vote-Theresa-May.html#ixzz4hdehsbYS
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Mike S
My feeling is that 35% of the absolute ceiling of Corbynism and die hard Labour loyalty. I too can't see many Lib Dems who spurned the charms of Ed Miliband falling for Jezza.
May seems to have pleasantly surprised the soft-left/centre left in recent days.
The Greens though are nailed on Jezbollah. Their vote will move en masse - most of it in completely useless places.
The battleground seats in Wales are the north-east four, Ynys, Bridgend and the two Newports.
No doubt that Labour is winning the campaign though. Jezza is in his element.
No undecideds are going to be shifted by the Tories going on about the IRA or Trident. The people bothered by these things decided ages ago.