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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters move against Trump on the “will he survive ” markets

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  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    @GIN1138 looks like it.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Lib Dems seem to be running on a higher taxes for all and negotiating a worse deal to stay in the EU against the expressed will of the nation ticket.
    Bold, but not sure what their target audience is? Masochist homophobe anti Abortionists?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,046
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    When May comes to true power (not constrained by small majorities), everyone will have their political affiliation shaved into the heads - saves time on political debate when their allegiance is clear at a glance.

    What of those who have no hair?

    *waves to management
    All will be given glorious wigs, like JackW's!!
    I do genuinely worry sometimes how often I seem to have the same thoughts as you Rob.

    Am I too, really a Tory? (Though I was called a corbyn fan the other day)

    Signing off.
  • Options
    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    This is why there is no hope for the Twitter Left:

    https://twitter.com/katiecrosson/status/861968298828857344

    There are none as blind as those who will not see.

    I'm convinced that social media has been a disaster for my side of the political divide.

    Also, the Corbynites on Twitter seem to think you're evil if you disagree with them....

    The level of political discourse in the UK is so low these days. Over the past few weeks I have been binge watching past election nights on YouTube. Going back to the 1970s there was a politeness to most public interactions that puts the current generation to shame.

    All sides are more guilty of rudeness and name calling than they used to be. But significant parts of the left do seem to have taken things to new extremes.

    I don't hanker after much from my childhood but a little more respect from all politicians towards their rivals would not be a bad thing.
    One big difference in the 70s was that many senior politicians were veterans of World War II. Having fought on the same side against genuine evil must have helped them keep things in perspective.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    When May comes to true power (not constrained by small majorities), everyone will have their political affiliation shaved into the heads - saves time on political debate when their allegiance is clear at a glance.

    What of those who have no hair?

    *waves to management
    All will be given glorious wigs, like JackW's!!
    I do genuinely worry sometimes how often I seem to have the same thoughts as you Rob.

    Am I too, really a Tory? (Though I was called a corbyn fan the other day)

    Signing off.
    Geographical proximity can be ruled out this time. Perhaps it is a quantum entanglement effect? :D
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    When May comes to true power (not constrained by small majorities), everyone will have their political affiliation shaved into the heads - saves time on political debate when their allegiance is clear at a glance.

    What of those who have no hair?

    *waves to management
    Even better - you could tattoo a permanent barcode. Much more efficient.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    Print ink is expensive, what a waste using all that red on one page!

    I used to work for an organisation with red logo, and they used a red Powerpoint template, until all the printers ran out of red ink...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Alistair said:
    Looks to be a bit of a bounce for the SNP in the subsamples and recent polls. Painting Labour as the "Red Tories" was a (albeit crude) political masterstroke in pretty much strangling the life out of them back in 2015; and establishing left dominance.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    All will be given glorious wigs, like JackW's!!

    My wig is a Mike Smithson hand-me-down ....
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,046

    This is why there is no hope for the Twitter Left:

    https://twitter.com/katiecrosson/status/861968298828857344

    There are none as blind as those who will not see.

    I'm convinced that social media has been a disaster for my side of the political divide.

    Also, the Corbynites on Twitter seem to think you're evil if you disagree with them....

    I pointed out on Twitter that the tax rate under labour for someone on £100k would be a personal marginal tax rate of 67% and was instantly set upon by Corybynistas as being a "Tory Abbott".... so I explained the maths and was then just told "well they can afford it" and that they'd love to earn that amount.
    I quoted one yesterday who was so enamoured of being given a REAL CHOICE that they weren't even bothering to defend or refute Steve Webb's claim that the pensions changes in the labour manifesto would cost 300 billion. A REAL CHOICE is so good, what the choice is doesn't matter apparently.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    All will be given glorious wigs, like JackW's!!

    My wig is a Mike Smithson hand-me-down ....
    Wigs for whigs :>
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,911
    dr_spyn said:

    @GIN1138 looks like it.

    Thanks :)
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Charlie Kennedy would have been crucifying labour by now, even Menzies would be marching onwards. Farron is hopeless.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797

    Pulpstar said:



    The greatest politicians can, by their own efforts, decisions and leadership, save entire countries from disaster. That is a rather more useful talent than painting pictures.

    Yep, Sir Winston Churchill achieved far more than winning any General Election. He massively helped win a World War - no other 20th Century British politician comes close to that.
    Lloyd George says hello.
    Though Churchill was there for that one as well.
    And was not a conspicuous success. Guess he improved with practice...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    All will be given glorious wigs, like JackW's!!

    My wig is a Mike Smithson hand-me-down ....
    Wigs for whigs :>
    Dare I ask what Tories get? :smiley:
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Lib Dems seem to be running on a higher taxes for all and negotiating a worse deal to stay in the EU against the expressed will of the nation ticket.
    Bold, but not sure what their target audience is? Masochist homophobe anti Abortionists?

    Just the 1 penny on income tax wasn't it ?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    This is why there is no hope for the Twitter Left:

    https://twitter.com/katiecrosson/status/861968298828857344

    There are none as blind as those who will not see.

    I'm convinced that social media has been a disaster for my side of the political divide.

    Also, the Corbynites on Twitter seem to think you're evil if you disagree with them....

    I pointed out on Twitter that the tax rate under labour for someone on £100k would be a personal marginal tax rate of 67% and was instantly set upon by Corybynistas as being a "Tory Abbott".... so I explained the maths and was then just told "well they can afford it" and that they'd love to earn that amount.
    I quoted one yesterday who was so enamoured of being given a REAL CHOICE that they weren't even bothering to defend or refute Steve Webb's claim that the pensions changes in the labour manifesto would cost 300 billion. A REAL CHOICE is so good, what the choice is doesn't matter apparently.
    Steve Webb is clearly a Tory though ;)
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Charlie Kennedy would have been crucifying labour by now, even Menzies would be marching onwards. Farron is hopeless.

    But there will be an even smaller pool from which to elect his replacement.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems seem to be running on a higher taxes for all and negotiating a worse deal to stay in the EU against the expressed will of the nation ticket.
    Bold, but not sure what their target audience is? Masochist homophobe anti Abortionists?

    Just the 1 penny on income tax wasn't it ?
    Indeed. I'm not averse to higher tax to fund the NHS but now us an odd time to be hitting the average earner. There are better ways, politically and electorally to raise 6 billion which are no worse economically.
    It's a poor policy going into an election you cannot win in which you are trying to recover from near annihilation.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    kle4 said:

    This is why there is no hope for the Twitter Left:

    https://twitter.com/katiecrosson/status/861968298828857344

    There are none as blind as those who will not see.

    I'm convinced that social media has been a disaster for my side of the political divide.

    Also, the Corbynites on Twitter seem to think you're evil if you disagree with them....

    I pointed out on Twitter that the tax rate under labour for someone on £100k would be a personal marginal tax rate of 67% and was instantly set upon by Corybynistas as being a "Tory Abbott".... so I explained the maths and was then just told "well they can afford it" and that they'd love to earn that amount.
    I quoted one yesterday who was so enamoured of being given a REAL CHOICE that they weren't even bothering to defend or refute Steve Webb's claim that the pensions changes in the labour manifesto would cost 300 billion. A REAL CHOICE is so good, what the choice is doesn't matter apparently.
    One worry about a continued Corby lead opposition - is there such a thing as an Overton window for competence ?
    If so, are we slowly but steadily reconciling the UK public to the prospect of a government lead by someone slightly less incompetent than Corbyn ?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,368
    Opinion ratings for Trump are heading clearly south:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

    Nonetheless, punters and journalists alike tend to overestimate the probability of dramatic events. It's a lot more likely that Trump will stumble through to 2020 and then someone will beat him.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Charlie Kennedy would have been crucifying labour by now, even Menzies would be marching onwards. Farron is hopeless.

    But there will be an even smaller pool from which to elect his replacement.
    Depends how Scotland goes. If Jo doesn't get in then Farron will perhaps stay on :o. If she does get in then he's perhaps up in seats overall. If there is a big Scotland/England split she's a shoo in.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Charlie Kennedy would have been crucifying labour by now, even Menzies would be marching onwards. Farron is hopeless.

    But there will be an even smaller pool from which to elect his replacement.
    Well, they will still outpoll continuity SDP I suppose. This time anyway
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    This is why there is no hope for the Twitter Left:

    https://twitter.com/katiecrosson/status/861968298828857344

    There are none as blind as those who will not see.

    I'm convinced that social media has been a disaster for my side of the political divide.

    Also, the Corbynites on Twitter seem to think you're evil if you disagree with them....

    I pointed out on Twitter that the tax rate under labour for someone on £100k would be a personal marginal tax rate of 67% and was instantly set upon by Corybynistas as being a "Tory Abbott".... so I explained the maths and was then just told "well they can afford it" and that they'd love to earn that amount.
    I quoted one yesterday who was so enamoured of being given a REAL CHOICE that they weren't even bothering to defend or refute Steve Webb's claim that the pensions changes in the labour manifesto would cost 300 billion. A REAL CHOICE is so good, what the choice is doesn't matter apparently.
    Steve Webb is clearly a Tory though ;)
    Obviously so, he can count therefore he can't be a Labour man, so he must be a baby-eating evil Tory.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,713
    Reverse ferret from Len McCluskey.

    At least Jenny Chapman is being refreshingly honest about Labour's prospects.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,583

    Pulpstar said:



    The greatest politicians can, by their own efforts, decisions and leadership, save entire countries from disaster. That is a rather more useful talent than painting pictures.

    Yep, Sir Winston Churchill achieved far more than winning any General Election. He massively helped win a World War - no other 20th Century British politician comes close to that.
    Lloyd George says hello.
    Though Churchill was there for that one as well.
    He was more of a hindrance than help in World War I.

    Why is it so many PBers are in need of history lessons from me.

    Is this is a good time to discuss the Dardanelles campaign?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems seem to be running on a higher taxes for all and negotiating a worse deal to stay in the EU against the expressed will of the nation ticket.
    Bold, but not sure what their target audience is? Masochist homophobe anti Abortionists?

    Just the 1 penny on income tax wasn't it ?
    Indeed. I'm not averse to higher tax to fund the NHS but now us an odd time to be hitting the average earner. There are better ways, politically and electorally to raise 6 billion which are no worse economically.
    It's a poor policy going into an election you cannot win in which you are trying to recover from near annihilation.
    Yes but crucifying the "rich" doesn't make too much sense either, their Labour tends to be more internationally mobile ! So 1p would definitely raise cash.
    Financially it is very very sound.
    Agree it doesn't help too much to win the election unfortunately - people don't like to hear pain !
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Pulpstar said:



    The greatest politicians can, by their own efforts, decisions and leadership, save entire countries from disaster. That is a rather more useful talent than painting pictures.

    Yep, Sir Winston Churchill achieved far more than winning any General Election. He massively helped win a World War - no other 20th Century British politician comes close to that.
    Lloyd George says hello.
    Though Churchill was there for that one as well.
    He was more of a hindrance than help in World War I.

    Why is it so many PBers are in need of history lessons from me.

    Is this is a good time to discuss the Dardanelles campaign?
    He indeed owed a Gallipology that never came.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There seems to be a decimal point missing from the probability of Donald Trump leaving office in 2017. Even that seems an order of magnitude too high to me.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Reverse ferret from Len McCluskey.

    At least Jenny Chapman is being refreshingly honest about Labour's prospects.

    Problem is we know that he knew what the manifesto was going to contain so his ferret is well and truly stuck down his trousers looking first something to bite.....
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    PMILF

    [blushes]
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Cornwall North is still a Tory bet even at 1-5 by the way.
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    RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    edited May 2017

    Charlie Kennedy would have been crucifying labour by now, even Menzies would be marching onwards. Farron is hopeless.

    The Guardian are currently gunning for him over abortion. Even if the liberals break even in the election, he might just be too compromised to survive as party leader for much longer.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    This is why there is no hope for the Twitter Left:

    https://twitter.com/katiecrosson/status/861968298828857344

    There are none as blind as those who will not see.

    I'm convinced that social media has been a disaster for my side of the political divide.

    Also, the Corbynites on Twitter seem to think you're evil if you disagree with them....

    It's one reason, while of a certain usefulness, I find the idea of lumping people in left and right tribes is such nonsense. By doing so it conjures an image of perhaps broad tribes that generally agree with each other more than their opponents, when fact is the extreme folk and left and right, in behaviour and occasionally policy can be so divorced from supposed ideological underpinnings of others in their tribe it beggars belief, and really the ones in the middling area agree far more with one another, and more importantly are able to outside of partisan jibes to treat each other with respect, recognising we're arguing over politics here.

    It's important, sometimes very important, but it is not That important.
    I think Left and Right tribes can be useful in the sense that these groups have historically had some kind of shared values and beliefs. Most lefties believe in the redistribution of wealth, for example.

    On Twitter, I actually think it's okay to generalise my side on there because after months of observing the Left on twitter, basically 90% of them have the same attitude: anyone who disagreees with me is evil/a Tory/Blairite/not worth talking to. You'll find lefties on twitter who are thoughtful, but the Jo Green's of this world are not easy to find on Twitter. It doesn't help that Corbynistas vilify anyone who dares to speak ill of Corbyn - like J.K Rowling.

    The big issue with Corbynistas, is not that they are so left-wing, it's their attitude. For example Yanis Varofakis describes himself as an 'erratic Marxist' yet he's a million miles away in terms of his attitude from a lot of Corbynites. Even though I'm nowhere near as Left as him, I always enjoy listening to what he has to say. He can also bring himself to engage with those who he disagrees with. As Nick Cohen has noted on Twitter, you know the Left has gone made when Melechon voters won't back Macron because 'he's a neo-liberal.' In a contest between a fascist and a neo-liberal, the neo-liberal wins everytime. As Yanis said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12dUYcHxSu4

    Even Owen Jones isn't as bad as most Corbynites on Twitter. His YT channel actually has some interesting interviews - he's even got one with Jacob Rees-Mogg. The video where he went to the Tory party conference was also pretty funny.

    I'm sorry to complain like this. But everyday Corbynistas on Twitter frustrate me intensely.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970
    edited May 2017
    Prodicus said:

    Oooh. A letter.
    image

    TBH I am beginning to find this Queen of the May thing irritating.

    She is making some very big promises. She will be judged on her delivery of them.

    What First Past the Post Giveth, First Past the Post Taketh Away.

  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems seem to be running on a higher taxes for all and negotiating a worse deal to stay in the EU against the expressed will of the nation ticket.
    Bold, but not sure what their target audience is? Masochist homophobe anti Abortionists?

    Just the 1 penny on income tax wasn't it ?
    Indeed. I'm not averse to higher tax to fund the NHS but now us an odd time to be hitting the average earner. There are better ways, politically and electorally to raise 6 billion which are no worse economically.
    It's a poor policy going into an election you cannot win in which you are trying to recover from near annihilation.
    Yes but crucifying the "rich" doesn't make too much sense either, their Labour tends to be more internationally mobile ! So 1p would definitely raise cash.
    Financially it is very very sound.
    Agree it doesn't help too much to win the election unfortunately - people don't like to hear pain !
    You don't need to crucify the rich to raise 6 billion a year, you can do it with some marginal changes to business taxes without frightening off business, especially if you combine it with some incentive of the clever and low cost variety. That's what I'd do. It's rehashing an old chestnut that in straitened times is very foolish electorally. Add in the whiff of unpleasant personal beliefs and he's a real liability.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,583
    Pulpstar said:

    Cornwall North is still a Tory bet even at 1-5 by the way.

    Careful, you're gonna get told off by people who tipping short term odds on bets is wrong.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,413
    "Catalogue of Chaos."

    New phrase?
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    This is why there is no hope for the Twitter Left:

    https://twitter.com/katiecrosson/status/861968298828857344

    There are none as blind as those who will not see.

    I'm convinced that social media has been a disaster for my side of the political divide.

    Also, the Corbynites on Twitter seem to think you're evil if you disagree with them....

    The level of political discourse in the UK is so low these days. Over the past few weeks I have been binge watching past election nights on YouTube. Going back to the 1970s there was a politeness to most public interactions that puts the current generation to shame.

    All sides are more guilty of rudeness and name calling than they used to be. But significant parts of the left do seem to have taken things to new extremes.

    I don't hanker after much from my childhood but a little more respect from all politicians towards their rivals would not be a bad thing.
    It's social media. When you have to face a person in real life, it forces you to think about what you're saying.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Rhubarb said:

    Charlie Kennedy would have been crucifying labour by now, even Menzies would be marching onwards. Farron is hopeless.

    The Guardian are currently gunning for him over abortion. Even if the liberals break even in the election he might just be too compromised to survive as party leader for much longer.
    To have to 'clarify' your position on homosexuality and abortion is odd territory for a leader of the Liberal Party. Not sure Jeremy Thorpe would approve.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    This is why there is no hope for the Twitter Left:

    https://twitter.com/katiecrosson/status/861968298828857344

    There are none as blind as those who will not see.

    I'm convinced that social media has been a disaster for my side of the political divide.

    Also, the Corbynites on Twitter seem to think you're evil if you disagree with them....

    I pointed out on Twitter that the tax rate under labour for someone on £100k would be a personal marginal tax rate of 67% and was instantly set upon by Corybynistas as being a "Tory Abbott".... so I explained the maths and was then just told "well they can afford it" and that they'd love to earn that amount.
    Out of interest, what is a ''Tory Abbott''?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,413
    Rhubarb said:

    Charlie Kennedy would have been crucifying labour by now, even Menzies would be marching onwards. Farron is hopeless.

    The Guardian are currently gunning for him over abortion. Even if the liberals break even in the election, he might just be too compromised to survive as party leader for much longer.
    I do miss Charlie Kennedy.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,046

    kle4 said:

    This is why there is no hope for the Twitter Left:

    https://twitter.com/katiecrosson/status/861968298828857344

    There are none as blind as those who will not see.

    I'm convinced that social media has been a disaster for my side of the political divide.

    Also, the Corbynites on Twitter seem to think you're evil if you disagree with them....

    It's one reason, while of a certain usefulness, I find the idea of lumping people in left and right tribes is such nonsense. By doing so it conjures an image of perhaps broad tribes that generally agree with each other more than their opponents, when fact is the extreme folk and left and right, in behaviour and occasionally policy can be so divorced from supposed ideological underpinnings of others in their tribe it beggars belief, and really the ones in the middling area agree far more with one another, and more importantly are able to outside of partisan jibes to treat each other with respect, recognising we're arguing over politics here.

    It's important, sometimes very important, but it is not That important.
    Even Owen Jones isn't as bad as most Corbynites on Twitter. His YT channel actually has some interesting interviews - he's even got one with Jacob Rees-Mogg. The video where he went to the Tory party conference was also pretty funny.

    I'm sorry to complain like this. But everyday Corbynistas on Twitter frustrate me intensely.
    They do us all. Alt righters seem a bit quieter at the moment perhaps.

    Owen Jones is a chap I do not agree with on a great many things, but I've read his stuff and he genuinely seems very thoughtful, he is occasionally reflective.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Typical Tory.

    Of course, as I am sure Malky and Divot will be along to tell us shortly, the SNP always act instantaneously when there is any whiff of impropriety.

    Oh...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Oh Dear, seen the Farron abortion stuff. That might chime with the Tory/UKIP social 'quite' right but noone remotely in the British centre or left is going to go for this stuff.

    I suppose at least he hasn't admitted to having a poster of Margaret Thatcher on his bedroom wall yet.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446

    Pulpstar said:



    The greatest politicians can, by their own efforts, decisions and leadership, save entire countries from disaster. That is a rather more useful talent than painting pictures.

    Yep, Sir Winston Churchill achieved far more than winning any General Election. He massively helped win a World War - no other 20th Century British politician comes close to that.
    Lloyd George says hello.
    Though Churchill was there for that one as well.
    He was more of a hindrance than help in World War I.

    Why is it so many PBers are in need of history lessons from me.

    Is this is a good time to discuss the Dardanelles campaign?
    Not a crazy as Lord Jackie Fisher's "Baltic Project"!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Project
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Scott_P said:
    why do people vote ukip for? I just don't understand.........
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Prodicus said:

    Oooh. A letter.
    image

    TBH I am beginning to find this Queen of the May thing irritating.

    She is making some very big promises. She will be judged on her delivery of them.

    What First Past the Post Giveth, First Past the Post Taketh Away.

    Irrespective of the content, the photo of Farron gurning is hilarious
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,413
    Hammond has some good lines.

    "Lab manifesto is for the idealogical few at the expense of the many"
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,413
    No booing of Laura K this morning
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Hammond has some good lines.

    "Lab manifesto is for the idealogical few at the expense of the many"

    Pray for Hammond after this election.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,713

    kle4 said:

    This is why there is no hope for the Twitter Left:

    https://twitter.com/katiecrosson/status/861968298828857344

    There are none as blind as those who will not see.

    I'm convinced that social media has been a disaster for my side of the political divide.

    Also, the Corbynites on Twitter seem to think you're evil if you disagree with them....

    It's one reason, while of a certain usefulness, I find the idea of lumping people in left and right tribes is such nonsense. By doing so it conjures an image of perhaps broad tribes that generally agree with each other more than their opponents, when fact is the extreme folk and left and right, in behaviour and occasionally policy can be so divorced from supposed ideological underpinnings of others in their tribe it beggars belief, and really the ones in the middling area agree far more with one another, and more importantly are able to outside of partisan jibes to treat each other with respect, recognising we're arguing over politics here.

    It's important, sometimes very important, but it is not That important.
    I think Left and Right tribes can be useful in the sense that these groups have historically had some kind of shared values and beliefs. Most lefties believe in the redistribution of wealth, for example.

    On Twitter, I actually think it's okay to generalise my side on there because after months of observing the Left on twitter, basically 90% of them have the same attitude: anyone who disagreees with me is evil/a Tory/Blairite/not worth talking to. You'll find lefties on twitter who are thoughtful, but the Jo Green's of this world are not easy to find on Twitter. It doesn't help that Corbynistas vilify anyone who dares to speak ill of Corbyn - like J.K Rowling.

    The big issue with Corbynistas, is not that they are so left-wing, it's their attitude. For example Yanis Varofakis describes himself as an 'erratic Marxist' yet he's a million miles away in terms of his attitude from a lot of Corbynites. Even though I'm nowhere near as Left as him, I always enjoy listening to what he has to say. He can also bring himself to engage with those who he disagrees with. As Nick Cohen has noted on Twitter, you know the Left has gone made when Melechon voters won't back Macron because 'he's a neo-liberal.' In a contest between a fascist and a neo-liberal, the neo-liberal wins everytime. As Yanis said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12dUYcHxSu4

    Even Owen Jones isn't as bad as most Corbynites on Twitter. His YT channel actually has some interesting interviews - he's even got one with Jacob Rees-Mogg. The video where he went to the Tory party conference was also pretty funny.

    I'm sorry to complain like this. But everyday Corbynistas on Twitter frustrate me intensely.
    Labour is in desperate need of a Varoufakis.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Rhubarb said:

    Charlie Kennedy would have been crucifying labour by now, even Menzies would be marching onwards. Farron is hopeless.

    The Guardian are currently gunning for him over abortion. Even if the liberals break even in the election, he might just be too compromised to survive as party leader for much longer.
    I do miss Charlie Kennedy.
    It was only when I was rewatching the 2015 election night that it struck me as to what really happened to Charlie. Such a sad end to a life.
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    GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-labour-gain-ground-but-tories-still-enjoy-comfortable-lead-a3541086.html

    New Poll in Standard?

    The story appears to be written in such a way as to obscure the results.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970
    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:
    why do people vote ukip for? I just don't understand.........

    They don't.

    The issue here is that jobs are being created and there are no UK-born citizens to take them. See the foreign secretary role, for example.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,138
    Interesting phrasing from Hammond. "I work closely with her [May's] team." He clearly doesn't see himself as part of it.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,894

    It'll be fun how The Evening Standard reports the Ipsos MORI poll today.

    In all serious, the OP-ED piece in last night's paper which presumably was either written by George Osborne himself or written by you and approved by him, was a trenchant critique of not just the Labour position but the Conservative one as well.

    Comparing those who voted LEAVE to a "duped drunk in a strip bar" is interesting but might resonate in the more pro-REMAIN areas of London.

    We also have "billions in accumulated liabilities" which flies in the face of those who seem to argue not only will there be no "penalty" for leaving the EU but we will actually get money back for so doing.

    "It may provoke an honest debate about what we are prepared to pay for" - that cuts to the nub of the real debate we've yet to have about the future of the United Kingdom outside the European Union. What kind of country do we want to be, what kind of country can we afford to be ? Given the continuing and escalating demands on social care, how can any sensible politician close off the possibility, nay the certainty of tax rises ?

    What kind of society do we want to be provides the answer to what kind of economy we need to have ? That question, like so many others, gets no discussion as we all metaphorically hide behind Mrs May and hope all the nasty things in the world go away.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    GeoffH said:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-labour-gain-ground-but-tories-still-enjoy-comfortable-lead-a3541086.html

    New Poll in Standard?

    The story appears to be written in such a way as to obscure the results.

    Looks like Lab on 30, Tories on 47 from the graph figures.
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    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:
    why do people vote ukip for? I just don't understand.........
    Because importing cheap labour gives lazy, feckless UK residents an excuse, if jobs are available the unemployed here should be doing them.

    btw very few people vote UKIP any more
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830



    Labour is in desperate need of a Varoufakis.

    He's much more intellectually coherent than Corbyn.

    Labour would even be okay with a 'Sanders.' I love how so many on Twitter see Sanders and Corbyn as exactly the same. As if Corbyn (or even Ed M, tbh) would do what Sanders has done which was sit down and talk with Trump voters.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    GeoffH said:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-labour-gain-ground-but-tories-still-enjoy-comfortable-lead-a3541086.html

    New Poll in Standard?

    The story appears to be written in such a way as to obscure the results.

    That mirroring of the Tory and UKIP share.

    We are expecting a MORI/Evening Standard poll today at 11.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Interesting phrasing from Hammond. "I work closely with her [May's] team." He clearly doesn't see himself as part of it.

    He's Theresa's local candidate. Of course he has to say 'her team' :p
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    GeoffH said:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-labour-gain-ground-but-tories-still-enjoy-comfortable-lead-a3541086.html

    New Poll in Standard?

    The story appears to be written in such a way as to obscure the results.

    Looks like Lab on 30, Tories on 47 from the graph figures.
    That's the poll of polls?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    Mr. Stodge, if Osborne had treated those either intending to vote for Leave or considering it with more respect and less contempt, the result may have been different.

    Mr. Glenn, if that's word-for-word right, then I agree, and it is interesting.

    After years of the PM and Chancellor actually getting along very well, this is a return to business as usual. Don't see Hammond as a new Brown (in terms of relationship with the PM), though.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Is the Tory campaign finally starting?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,713
    RobD said:

    GeoffH said:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-labour-gain-ground-but-tories-still-enjoy-comfortable-lead-a3541086.html

    New Poll in Standard?

    The story appears to be written in such a way as to obscure the results.

    Looks like Lab on 30, Tories on 47 from the graph figures.
    That's the poll of polls?
    Yes, poll of polls: 47/31/9/5/3

    Seats: 394/171/51/12
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797

    Pulpstar said:



    The greatest politicians can, by their own efforts, decisions and leadership, save entire countries from disaster. That is a rather more useful talent than painting pictures.

    Yep, Sir Winston Churchill achieved far more than winning any General Election. He massively helped win a World War - no other 20th Century British politician comes close to that.
    Lloyd George says hello.
    Though Churchill was there for that one as well.
    He was more of a hindrance than help in World War I.

    Why is it so many PBers are in need of history lessons from me.

    Is this is a good time to discuss the Dardanelles campaign?
    Or indeed the Norwegian campaign...

    Great PM; lousy general.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    GeoffH said:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-labour-gain-ground-but-tories-still-enjoy-comfortable-lead-a3541086.html

    New Poll in Standard?

    The story appears to be written in such a way as to obscure the results.

    Looks like Lab on 30, Tories on 47 from the graph figures.
    That's the poll of polls?
    Yes, poll of polls: 47/31/9/5/3

    Seats: 394/171/51/12
    Mine's better:

    https://goo.gl/7cTbAf

    :p
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    I doubt there'll be mind changing before the vote now. Corbyn managed to kill that off when he refused the debates.

    Maybe his target wasn't actually the Tories this election, perhaps it was to smother the Lib Dems :o. Refusing to debate would make sense in this context.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Is the Tory campaign finally starting?

    Tezza has managed to launch her campaign to sack Spreadsheet Phil, yes
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Is the Tory campaign finally starting?

    Tezza has managed to launch her campaign to sack Spreadsheet Phil, yes
    A shame, if true.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    RobD said:

    Is the Tory campaign finally starting?

    At the moment it feels as if the Tory cat is just playing with the Labour mouse. Eventually the play will end and the real devouring commence.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    Back on topic... IF there really is concrete evidence of obstruction of justice, then Trump is a goner, probably before the year end:
    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/16/trump-comey-republicans-congress-scandals-238479
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Is the Tory campaign finally starting?

    Tezza has managed to launch her campaign to sack Spreadsheet Phil, yes
    A shame, if true.
    The tombstoners hate him.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    That really shouldn't be a shock. She is right to reserve the right to reshape her government whenever she chooses.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    I have no idea why she is considered a talent to watch. She has never impressed in any media performance that I have seen
    Because the comparison is with Diane?
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    RobCRobC Posts: 398
    stodge said:

    As it seems Conservative ambitions on Labour seats know no bounds, there's always the thought of East Ham turning blue.

    Stephen Timms sits atop a small 34,252 majority which in the current climate must make this seat a hyper-marginal.

    We have seven runners and riders for the East Ham General Election Handicap open to three year olds of all ages:

    Stephen Timms - Labour - won 78% of the vote last time and achieved a 5% swing from the Conservatives which, had it been repeated country wide, would have left us in a very different place politically. He's a strong REMAIN supporter but no friend of Corbyn. He might get a senior position in a Cooper Shadow Cabinet or perhaps be a contender himself is Labour go sub-100.

    Kirsty Finlayson - Conservative - from her Twitter feed, a highly enthusiastic activist who does a lot of canvassing, most of it in other seats. I suspect we may see some High Street activity on one or two of the last weekends but there are more likely targets in Ilford North and perhaps Dagenham & Rainham. In 1997 and 2001, the Conservatives got 16% but given the borough only went REMAIN 52-48, there may be some scope for upside. I'd be surprised if she got 20% - 15% seems reasonable as a benchmark.

    Daniel Oxley - UKIP - third last time with 5% but UKIP have never done much outside Beckton and I suspect a lost deposit on the cards.

    Chiti Obi-Obihara - Green - the Greens came fourth with 2.5% last time. They might advance again and finish third.

    Glanville Williams - Lib Dem - fifth with just 1.6% of the vote in 2015 was awful. The immediate priority must be to save the deposit and it's fair to say with an influx of new members since 2015 the local party is stronger than it's been for a while. Might make 5% but in a scrap for third with the Greens.

    Choudhry Afzal - Friends Party - they were formed in November 2016. It's very difficult to tell what their policies are but they seem to be of the legal profession and are orientated toward the Pakistani community which won't help so much in Tamil East Ham.

    MIrza Zillur Rahman - Independent - another immigration lawyer. He thoughtfully told the Newham Recorder (the local rag) quite a bit so I'll simply provide the link:

    http://www.newhamrecorder.co.uk/seasonal/election/election-2017-mirza-zillur-rahman-to-run-as-independent-candidate-in-east-ham-1-5013856

    Lol. love this detailed analysis of an ultra safe seat, the sort of seat that will get totally ignored in this election along with say 325 current (now safe) Tory seats and 100 odd (still safe) Labour ones.

    Sadly one of the effects of a Tory landslide and the next parliament being pre-occupied with EU negotiations will be electoral reform being buried as an issue for another 5 years.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Today's Matt cartoon is not only very funny but cuttingly true.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    So if Hammond isn't going to be Chancellor after June 8th, then who will replace him?
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    So if Hammond isn't going to be Chancellor after June 8th, then who will replace him?

    Gove
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:
    why do people vote ukip for? I just don't understand.........
    Because importing cheap labour gives lazy, feckless UK residents an excuse, if jobs are available the unemployed here should be doing them.

    btw very few people vote UKIP any more
    What a silly and lazy stereotype. Do people actually believe this? Most unemployed want to work, however there has been an undermining of wages and rights since the flood of cheap eastern european labour for many it is not worth taking any "job" if they lose thier benefits. This has hurt those in lower paid jobs the most the effect of which I would guess have been undercounted. Even union jobs have been undermined by employers bringing in literal bus loads of workers from eastern europe. So you see it doesn't just hurt those looking for jobs.

    People don't vote for UKIP but then again we are leaving the E.U not least because of politicians unable or unwilling to get to grips with the problems with uncontrolled mass migration.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Invited to deliver a strong endorsement of Hammond, May says "I'd be happy to". Then doesn't.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    So if Hammond isn't going to be Chancellor after June 8th, then who will replace him?

    Philip Davies.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    That really shouldn't be a shock. She is right to reserve the right to reshape her government whenever she chooses.
    She'd be a damn fool to start answering such questions, the press would make her run through the cabinet membership. Hammond may be sacked, but I wouldn't expect May to discuss such matters in public.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422

    Pulpstar said:



    The greatest politicians can, by their own efforts, decisions and leadership, save entire countries from disaster. That is a rather more useful talent than painting pictures.

    Yep, Sir Winston Churchill achieved far more than winning any General Election. He massively helped win a World War - no other 20th Century British politician comes close to that.
    Lloyd George says hello.
    Though Churchill was there for that one as well.
    He was more of a hindrance than help in World War I.

    Why is it so many PBers are in need of history lessons from me.

    Is this is a good time to discuss the Dardanelles campaign?
    In general, I agree that Churchill was no great asset to the government in WWI. That said, he's overly criticised for the Dardanelles fiasco. Strategically, it was a sound plan and with proper planning, could have made a major difference at a time when the war elsewhere was stalemated. Churchill should certainly bear some of the blame for not getting that planning in place and then pushing on with the project anyway. Even so, it came within a hair's breadth of success and in the big scheme of things was probably worth the risk even with the second rate staff, leadership and resources given, never mind if it'd been done properly.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    That really shouldn't be a shock. She is right to reserve the right to reshape her government whenever she chooses.
    Exactly - you could fill in "Boris" or "Rudd" or "Leadsome" or "Anyone" - it's a classic "non-story story"
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Invited to deliver a strong endorsement of Hammond, May says "I'd be happy to". Then doesn't.

    If Hammond is toast then that could firm up the Con vote substantially.

    He is the weakest link.
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    chrisbchrisb Posts: 101

    That really shouldn't be a shock. She is right to reserve the right to reshape her government whenever she chooses.
    But having declined twice to answer the question directly, it holds out the prospect that she will choose not to have Hammond as Chancellor after the election. That uncertainty isn't wholly consistent with the 'strong and stable government' thing.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    So if Hammond isn't going to be Chancellor after June 8th, then who will replace him?

    That awful woman Amber Rudd is the rumour.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422

    Charlie Kennedy would have been crucifying labour by now, even Menzies would be marching onwards. Farron is hopeless.

    Agreed. Were the Lib Dems led by someone of Ashdown's abilities, the LDs could well be polling some way above Labour with the possibility of a genuine sea-change in the political landscape (to mix metaphors) in prospect.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    That really shouldn't be a shock. She is right to reserve the right to reshape her government whenever she chooses.
    Exactly - you could fill in "Boris" or "Rudd" or "Leadsome" or "Anyone" - it's a classic "non-story story"
    I've heard May plans to reorganise the Cabinet to ensure... yeah, you get the idea. :D:p
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Gove?

    Lord No.

    Philip Davies will be a backbencher forever. I have no worries about him getting near the leavers of power.....
This discussion has been closed.