Sandwell voted heavily leave yes, but look at the recent Metro Mayor vote there. Even with the John Lewis candidate v Sion Simon, the Tories did not win over the area. Don't get me wrong if Watson is in trouble great and 14/1 for Casino Royale are good odds - hope it comes in.
Depends who turns out. Many Leavers won't have bothered for the Mayorals.
I wonder if Paul Ryan might be a decent outside bet to be the next US president. Mike Pence seems to be heavily integrated into the Trump administration and if the brown stuff really does hit the fan may be a compromised as his boss. Isn't the Speaker of the House second in line to the presidency?
Ryan seems sane enough, if a little full of himself.
I wonder if Paul Ryan might be a decent outside bet to be the next US president. Mike Pence seems to be heavily integrated into the Trump administration and if the brown stuff really does hit the fan may be a compromised as his boss. Isn't the Speaker of the House second in line to the presidency?
I thought that the VP was automatically promoted. So unless Pence goes first or in a simultaneous resignation, Ryan might be the next but one.
The VP went first with Watergate. Would a new one have to be confirmed by the Senate?
But why would Pence go ? Unpleasant person he might be, but he's not Spiro T by any stretch of the imagination (or if he is, he's hiding it well).
I wonder if Paul Ryan might be a decent outside bet to be the next US president. Mike Pence seems to be heavily integrated into the Trump administration and if the brown stuff really does hit the fan may be a compromised as his boss. Isn't the Speaker of the House second in line to the presidency?
Ryan seems sane enough, if a little full of himself.
I did hear someone say that as the nationalisations would be paid for by borrowing then it would not cost anything. I can't remember which shadow ministers said it, but I certainly heard that line being used.
As far as I recall, we do have to repay our loans and all the interest so it really isn't free money. We do have to pay.
Actually, this is one bit of their policies one might make a decent case for. Currently the government can borrow at extremely low rates. The return on capital in (say) the water companies is way in excess of government borrowing costs. If the government is holding an asset yielding more than the cost of borrowing which paid for it, there is no immediate need to repay the debt. Of course the debt, if not repaid, will in due course have to be refinanced, and if we actually experienced a Corbyn government the cost of that financing would almost certainly not stay as low as it is now.
Assumptions:
1. Underlying Returns are sustainable long term 2. The government can run the business as efficiently as private owners 3. There is no political interference in the business 4. There will be sufficient capital available to make rational investments in maintenance and expansion 5. There is no effective cap on government borrowing 6. If such borrowing is available there are no better uses for it that would generate a higher social return 7. There is no impact on overall borrowing costs of the extra borrowing 8. There is no impact on the capital markets of nationalisation 9. Pension funds who buy infrastructure assets (encouraged by government) to match their longevity risk are able to find sufficient suitable investment opportunities without diluting their returns (and hence people's pensions)
All of these points are arguable
Naturally. 1. Water companies - of course they are; rail, more questionable 2. Arguable. Under Corbyn... you're having a laugh. 3. See 2. 4. See 1. 5. See 2. 6. Given the current abnormally low borrowing rates - and the willingness of markets to provide surprising amounts of money - I'm not sure that applies. One of the failures of the last couple of administration, IMO, has been the failure to take advantage of once in a lifetime credit conditions to fund genuine capital investment. But again, see 2. 7. Linked to a rational case for say water nationalisation, then unlikely; see 2. 8. See 2. 9. Couple of points... What percentage of UK water companies are beneficially owned by UK pension funds ? (I suspect not particularly high) When government borrowing costs are abnormally low, essential infrastructure investment can be funded cheapest directly by government. Whiter government has the skills to most efficiently manage that investment is, of course, another question.
On topic: isn't the big issue that Trump correctly doesn't perceive Russia as the number one enemy of the USA, whereas the Washington establishment hasn't moved on from the Cold War mindset? In my opinion, Islamism (promoted by Saudi Arabia) is a much greater threat to Europe (including the UK and Russia) and the USA, so what is wrong with sharing confidential information about ISIL with Russia?
You dont just share confidential information on a whim, even with allies, without proper agreements. You dont just blab sensitive detais.
Trump has many faults but his major sin to the media is that he lacks couth. To the media, he is totally uncouth. He respects no one but he reserves his worst contempt for them.
Presidents can get away with being womanisers (JFK, Clinton), not over bright (Ford, Dubya), and even ineffectual (Obama), but they can't get away with being boorish.
Yet he won an election despite this. Now I've very seldom got a government I wanted, I even stopped voting Red when Tony came to power, but you have to respect the decision of the voters, no matter how stupid they are.
The older generation have always accused the younger generation of being soft etc. At the risk of changing into my Grandad, I sense today's youngsters have a larger sense of entitlement than ever before.
Again, I'm obviously missing something, but why is this Watergate?
Yes, Trump is unpopular, especially so with the media, but what law has he broken?
You can't impeach someone because you don't like his politics. You can't impeach someone because you consider them incompetent. Or can you?
If so, Jezza and Diane had better watch out.
The potential case against him is obstruction of justice. Whether it holds water is another matter, but it's certainly possible that he has broken the law. There is also the possibility of the 25th Amendment route, but that might be a tough one - after all, he seemed equally nuts when the voters elected him...
The bottom line is that unless a majority in Congress is there to impeach or otherwise remove him, all of the above is moot.
On topic: isn't the big issue that Trump correctly doesn't perceive Russia as the number one enemy of the USA, whereas the Washington establishment hasn't moved on from the Cold War mindset? In my opinion, Islamism (promoted by Saudi Arabia) is a much greater threat to Europe (including the UK and Russia) and the USA, so what is wrong with sharing confidential information about ISIL with Russia?
You dont just share confidential information on a whim, even with allies, without proper agreements. You dont just blab sensitive detais.
This assumes that Trump is being given the sensitive details. Wouldn't surprise me if they were keeping stuff from him left, right and centre.
I tipped West Bromwich East several weeks ago, and was told the deputy leader gets a boost.
I'm on at 14/1. I'm astonished that was ever available.
FPT
Harry Cole ✔ @MrHarryCole Overheard in the pubs of Westminster tonight... seasoned hands think Watson and Skinner constituencies are in play. 11:43 PM - 16 May 2017 55 55 Retweets 62 62 likes
While I think it will be a total bloodbath for Labour across the Midlands, I think both Watson and Skinner probably have enough visibility in their constituencies to make it through to the other side of 8th June alive. The source here is not entirely reliable or disinterested.
Skinner at 85 really should have had the grace to step down. Even if he gets reelected, the odds must be on a Bolsover by election before 2022.
I must admit that I do favour a retirement age for all parliamentarians (and other elected types). 75 would seem a reasonable age to fight your last election, maybe even 70. The days of the parliamentary dinosaurs should really be over.
People are living longer, and if someone still has their wits and the physical capacity to do the job, I'm not opposed to quite old MPs, but parties need to be very brutal in ensuring they are still doing the job, not just reliant on staff or reducing their output, as that would be taking a seat for granted and could bite them in the end.
I wonder if Paul Ryan might be a decent outside bet to be the next US president. Mike Pence seems to be heavily integrated into the Trump administration and if the brown stuff really does hit the fan may be a compromised as his boss. Isn't the Speaker of the House second in line to the presidency?
Only if Trump is impeached and forced out by next November, if not the Democrats will likely have taken the House and it would be President Nancy Pelosi in all likelihood who would be the most left liberal President since WW2
I tipped West Bromwich East several weeks ago, and was told the deputy leader gets a boost.
I'm on at 14/1. I'm astonished that was ever available.
FPT
Harry Cole ✔ @MrHarryCole Overheard in the pubs of Westminster tonight... seasoned hands think Watson and Skinner constituencies are in play. 11:43 PM - 16 May 2017 55 55 Retweets 62 62 likes
While I think it will be a total bloodbath for Labour across the Midlands, I think both Watson and Skinner probably have enough visibility in their constituencies to make it through to the other side of 8th June alive. The source here is not entirely reliable or disinterested.
They are very much Marmite candidates - and I think more people loathe them than love them now.
Watson in particular is hated by the right (because he's basically not a very nice person) by the left (because he's behind most of the briefings against Corbyn) and regarded with distrust by the centre (as the key Brownite attack dog). If he is campaigning on his high profile and personal popularity he's taking an absolutely enormous risk.
Skinner does however have a track record of nearly 50 years of good service as an MP to fall back on. Whether that will be enough is another question.
In the modern age, any MP should be engaging with their constituents via email. Skinner's declaration that he has never sent an email is not a badge of honour. It is systematic of a man who has refused to change his thinking in decades.
How has life in Bolsover been improved as a direct result of his nearly 50 years of being awkward?
All the mines have shut so the air is clean and people don't die of lung disease any more?
I doubt he will using that line on his leaflets!
Somehow I don't either, but it is ironic to reflect on that isn't it? American historian Gerard DeGroot said he found the conservatism of the British union movement truly bewildering. He couldn't understand why Scargill wanted 'the sons of miners to be miners' - it was a terrible life, poorly paid, dirty, dangerous and in dreadful conditions. Surely, he mused, anyone would want something better than that for their children?
Yet it still remains totemic in certain places.
Mining is like farming. People become dedicated to it, even when the rewards are paltry.
On topic: isn't the big issue that Trump correctly doesn't perceive Russia as the number one enemy of the USA, whereas the Washington establishment hasn't moved on from the Cold War mindset? In my opinion, Islamism (promoted by Saudi Arabia) is a much greater threat to Europe (including the UK and Russia) and the USA, so what is wrong with sharing confidential information about ISIL with Russia?
You dont just share confidential information on a whim, even with allies, without proper agreements. You dont just blab sensitive detais.
Some ex-CIA arsewipe on the radio explained it thusly: if you're going to share intelligence you from a foreign source you get the source to agree on the content and destination before you share. Trump didn't do this before gobbing off to try and impress Lavroc. So the Israelis (sneaky fuckers who know everything according to Selina Meyer) will be more circumspect about what they share with the US in the future as Trump will give it to the Russians who will give it to Iran.
Trump may have had a disastrous start but he "lost his losers early". He had all of his crisis early on, while his supporters were still celebrating. While all of this is damaging lots of the people who backed him don't care or don't believe the MSM. Those who want him out need a smoking gun, which they don't have right now
On topic: isn't the big issue that Trump correctly doesn't perceive Russia as the number one enemy of the USA, whereas the Washington establishment hasn't moved on from the Cold War mindset? In my opinion, Islamism (promoted by Saudi Arabia) is a much greater threat to Europe (including the UK and Russia) and the USA, so what is wrong with sharing confidential information about ISIL with Russia?
You dont just share confidential information on a whim, even with allies, without proper agreements. You dont just blab sensitive detais.
More than that, these were (reportedly) intelligence details of such sensitivity they had been withheld from the UK. That they might have been, on a whim, disclosed to the Russians, and potentially endangered the lives of assets is an extremely serious matter. Again this is alleged, not proved, but that it should be a matter of the highest concern isn't surprising.
"You dont just share confidential information on a whim, even with allies."
It would be interesting to examine the records of previous Presidents, and many previous PMs. If Obama were to have done it, I've no doubt many would call it statesmanship. I sense that Trump is personally disliked and that colours opinions.
Mr b, thanks for the information, but is there a specific law Trump has broken? There's no law against being stupid.
"You dont just share confidential information on a whim, even with allies."
It would be interesting to examine the records of previous Presidents, and many previous PMs. If Obama were to have done it, I've no doubt many would call it statesmanship. I sense that Trump is personally disliked and that colours opinions.
Mr b, thanks for the information, but is there a specific law Trump has broken? There's no law against being stupid.
No he hasn't broken the law with his rimming of Lavrov as POTUS has the power to declassify material. If he has told Comey to stop the investigation of Flynn that's Obstruction of Justice.
On topic: isn't the big issue that Trump correctly doesn't perceive Russia as the number one enemy of the USA, whereas the Washington establishment hasn't moved on from the Cold War mindset? In my opinion, Islamism (promoted by Saudi Arabia) is a much greater threat to Europe (including the UK and Russia) and the USA, so what is wrong with sharing confidential information about ISIL with Russia?
You dont just share confidential information on a whim, even with allies, without proper agreements. You dont just blab sensitive detais.
This assumes that Trump is being given the sensitive details. Wouldn't surprise me if they were keeping stuff from him left, right and centre.
I can imagine it a delicate line with any leader, not just trump, in how much of the detail is reasonable and helpful for their decision making, and where it becomes hiding things from them.
"You dont just share confidential information on a whim, even with allies."
It would be interesting to examine the records of previous Presidents, and many previous PMs. If Obama were to have done it, I've no doubt many would call it statesmanship. I sense that Trump is personally disliked and that colours opinions.
Mr b, thanks for the information, but is there a specific law Trump has broken? There's no law against being stupid.
18 U.S. Code § 1505 A person commits construction of justice if he or she: "corruptly, or by threats or force, or by any threatening letter or communication influences, obstructs, or impedes or endeavors to influence, obstruct, or impede the due and proper administration of the law under which any pending proceeding is being had before any department or agency of the United States, or the due and proper exercise of the power of inquiry under which any inquiry or investigation is being had by either House, or any committee of either House or any joint committee of the Congress..."
Whether he has actually broken that law is of course another matter.
Trump may have had a disastrous start but he "lost his losers early". He had all of his crisis early on, while his supporters were still celebrating. While all of this is damaging lots of the people who backed him don't care or don't believe the MSM. Those who want him out need a smoking gun, which they don't have right now
What makes you think he has had his crisis early, do you see any signs that it will not continue? It's only 4 months in out of 4 years, give him time.
"You dont just share confidential information on a whim, even with allies."
It would be interesting to examine the records of previous Presidents, and many previous PMs. If Obama were to have done it, I've no doubt many would call it statesmanship. I sense that Trump is personally disliked and that colours opinions.
Mr b, thanks for the information, but is there a specific law Trump has broken? There's no law against being stupid.
Israel shared intel with the USA about ISIS plans to use mobiles / pads to get bombs on aircraft. Trump seems to have discussed this with Lavrov, presumably seeking to extend joint efforts to combat ISIS. Israel is very annoyed as it will possibly / probably compromise their source. Naughty but not illegal or treasonous. Compare this: http://thefederalist.com/2017/05/16/obama-ordered-u-s-intelligence-community-share-intel-cuba/
"You dont just share confidential information on a whim, even with allies."
It would be interesting to examine the records of previous Presidents, and many previous PMs. If Obama were to have done it, I've no doubt many would call it statesmanship. I sense that Trump is personally disliked and that colours opinions.
I have no doubt that is true, and also that trumps tone and manner amplify what he does and doesn't do, he makes everything seem a big deal. But if Obama was blurting unnecessary intelligence details he should be criticised too.
There is also, of course, the 25th Amendment, should Congress decide he's plain nuts:
Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
I wonder if Paul Ryan might be a decent outside bet to be the next US president. Mike Pence seems to be heavily integrated into the Trump administration and if the brown stuff really does hit the fan may be a compromised as his boss. Isn't the Speaker of the House second in line to the presidency?
Only if Trump is impeached and forced out by next November, if not the Democrats will likely have taken the House and it would be President Nancy Pelosi in all likelihood who would be the most left liberal President since WW2
POTUS and veep both gone? Now we really are in Armando Iannucci territory.
I tipped West Bromwich East several weeks ago, and was told the deputy leader gets a boost.
I'm on at 14/1. I'm astonished that was ever available.
FPT
Harry Cole ✔ @MrHarryCole Overheard in the pubs of Westminster tonight... seasoned hands think Watson and Skinner constituencies are in play. 11:43 PM - 16 May 2017 55 55 Retweets 62 62 likes
While I think it will be a total bloodbath for Labour across the Midlands, I think both Watson and Skinner probably have enough visibility in their constituencies to make it through to the other side of 8th June alive. The source here is not entirely reliable or disinterested.
Skinner at 85 really should have had the grace to step down. Even if he gets reelected, the odds must be on a Bolsover by election before 2022.
I must admit that I do favour a retirement age for all parliamentarians (and other elected types). 75 would seem a reasonable age to fight your last election, maybe even 70. The days of the parliamentary dinosaurs should really be over.
People are living longer, and if someone still has their wits and the physical capacity to do the job, I'm not opposed to quite old MPs, but parties need to be very brutal in ensuring they are still doing the job, not just reliant on staff or reducing their output, as that would be taking a seat for granted and could bite them in the end.
Skinner is a dinosaur, but also has proper working class roots that are increasingly rare in Parliament.
It is not just his age, his politics are older than Corbyns. They might even applwal to nostalgics.
Re nationalisation using borrowings - if Quantitive Easing was good why not use it for nationalisation ?
"The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion. " Bank of England monetary Policy minutes
Phrases of the campaign for me 'a reckoning' and 'we are being put on trial'
I dunno about you, but I'm looking forward to Dimbleby revealing all with the bong at ten.
Is he doing it again? That reveal is set to be awesome, I wonder how many times it'll be posted here on PB in those few seconds after the exit poll comes up.... 20? Plus of course the range of expletives we all enjoyed when the last one came out....
Mr. B, the US and UK have an extremely close intelligence relationship. If that's accurate, Trump's more than an idiot.
Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Chadwick.
Morning, Mr.D. The significance of this particular kerfuffle is not that's an impeachable offense, but that it has outraged a number of Republicans in Congress. If Trump loses sufficient support there, and more evidence comes out on the alleged Russia shenanigans, then impeachment becomes a real possibility.
"If he has told Comey to stop the investigation of Flynn that's Obstruction of Justice."
I'm happy take your word for it, but again I suspect American Presidents have done that and more on a regular basis.
Wasn't me who said that, I don't know whether what he allegedly did there rose to that level. But even if others did it and worse and got away with it, what of it? That'd be a failure to hold them to account, not a reason that trump should not be held to account.
Re nationalisation using borrowings - if Quantitive Easing was good why not use it for nationalisation ?
"The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion. " Bank of England monetary Policy minutes
Phrases of the campaign for me 'a reckoning' and 'we are being put on trial'
I dunno about you, but I'm looking forward to Dimbleby revealing all with the bong at ten.
Is he doing it again? That reveal is set to be awesome, I wonder how many times it'll be posted here on PB in those few seconds after the exit poll comes up.... 20? Plus of course the range of expletives we all enjoyed when the last one came out....
I think so, his last hurrah! I remember having a couple-minute moratorium on refreshing PB because of the one min delay on the iPlayer feed!
Farron's LD's lower the Clegg's. 6% swing from LD to Con since 2015.
Several polls where they had edged into the tens at least are now back in single digits. I know recovery was always to be a long road back, but they have to do better than last time or there's really no point. They could end up anywhere from 5-15, and a good result would be anything in double figures, even 10 seats.
Re nationalisation using borrowings - if Quantitive Easing was good why not use it for nationalisation ?
"The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion. " Bank of England monetary Policy minutes
"If he has told Comey to stop the investigation of Flynn that's Obstruction of Justice."
I'm happy take your word for it, but again I suspect American Presidents have done that and more on a regular basis.
Sure they have, but none of them were fucking stupid enough to fire the guy they'd just asked in acrimonious circumstances shortly after, claim there is an audio recording which would prove it never happened and then refuse to produce the recording.
If he doesn't go over this, it's going to be something else equally fuckwitted that gets him and it won't be long in coming.
I knew this set of clowns would be a shambles, but I had no idea it was going to be this appalling.
A forlorn hope: but maybe when all this over, the left will just get a tiny glimmer of appreciation for the basic professionalism of Blair, Brown, Campbell, Gould etc.
Phrases of the campaign for me 'a reckoning' and 'we are being put on trial'
I dunno about you, but I'm looking forward to Dimbleby revealing all with the bong at ten.
Is he doing it again? That reveal is set to be awesome, I wonder how many times it'll be posted here on PB in those few seconds after the exit poll comes up.... 20? Plus of course the range of expletives we all enjoyed when the last one came out....
I think so, his last hurrah! I remember having a couple-minute moratorium on refreshing PB because of the one min delay on the iPlayer feed!
If he's not announcing a Tory landslide, then I fear the servers for this site may well melt.
If he is announcing a Tory landslide, then obviously Twitter will break under the strain of cult dismay. I do genuinely fear the Samaritans hotline will be needed.
I knew this set of clowns would be a shambles, but I had no idea it was going to be this appalling.
A forlorn hope: but maybe when all this over, the left will just get a tiny glimmer of appreciation for the basic professionalism of Blair, Brown, Campbell, Gould etc.
For all the job of senior mp is derided, turns out it can actually be pretty hard. Who knew?
On another matter, yet more talk of may and Hammond rowing on guido, someone has been briefing against him for months, trailing that he will be sacked etc. The days of harmony between number 10 and 11 is over.
I have no idea why she is considered a talent to watch. She has never impressed in any media performance that I have seen
She was OKish on Sky earlier but that was mainly because she was being talked over by Sarah Jane Mee who really shouldn't be allowed to play with interviews. She's only marginally better than Burley
The Lib Dems' failure to advance at the expense of Labour is a mystery.
Not really. They aren't attacking Labour. They're attacking the Tories. They're letting their natural lefty hearts overwhelm their tactical heads. Badmouthing Mrs May feels better. But it'll get them nowhere. If they had a head they'd be seeking to displace Labour as the party of the centre left. But they're fuckwits. It's an open goal left completely unmolested.
The Lib Dems' failure to advance at the expense of Labour is a mystery.
Not really. They aren't attacking Labour. They're attacking the Tories. They're letting their natural lefty hearts overwhelm their tactical heads. Badmouthing Mrs May feels better. But it'll get them nowhere. If they had a head they'd be seeking to displace Labour as the party of the centre left. But they're fuckwits. It's an open goal left completely unmolested.
They have also attacked labour. Have they done too little of it? A different argument.
I knew this set of clowns would be a shambles, but I had no idea it was going to be this appalling.
A forlorn hope: but maybe when all this over, the left will just get a tiny glimmer of appreciation for the basic professionalism of Blair, Brown, Campbell, Gould etc.
For all the job of senior mp is derided, turns out it can actually be pretty hard. Who knew?
On another matter, yet more talk of may and Hammond rowing on guido, someone has been briefing against him for months, trailing that he will be sacked etc. The days of harmony between number 10 and 11 is over.
Winning an election is hard. Really hard. Win as the Labour party is really, really hard. This was one of Blair's basic insights. What you have to win as Labour. Look at the record. In 80 years there have been 3, yes only 3, election-winning Labour PMs and two of them are dead.
Burgon seems among the more terrible mp media performers I've seen. Does he just have one note, to whinge about not being able to just say his own scripted lines without, ugh, being asked things?
Nice to see the Labour Manifesto being so carefully filleted, analysed, dissected and disembowelled by so many on here. I'm sure the LD manifesto will get the same treatment later on today.
From the start, I've considered May as less Thatcher's daughter than Heseltine's or possibly Heath's and the more we see of May's Conservative vision (and it's not social conservatism), the more I see the influence of Heseltine.
I'd go further - May's vision is more akin to British-style social democracy but rather the David Owen flavour than the Shirley Williams brand. There's nothing in anything May has said that wasn't said by Heseltine or Owen or others. Indeed, some of her policy ideas could and have come from Labour. The Coalition was accused by some of being a Lib Dem Government headed by a Conservative - perhaps we will now see a Labour Government headed by a Conservative.
The interventionist role of the State is the key - unlike Labour which sees the State itself as the mechanism for change, Heseltine/Owen/May see the State as enforcer of legislation as that mechanism so the next five years will see social change and engineering via legislation compelling businesses and local authorities and individuals to change.
It's a million miles away from the laissez-faire, "let the markets do the work" of Thatcher.
Not that any of this matters that much for now - the core of May's appeal is simply her ability to play to uncertainty and anxiety. Whether or not you think it's the right road to be on, the path out the EU and into what looks an uncertain future creates a desire among many for stability, safety and security even if all you want is to hide under the bed until it's all over.
Then there's Jeremy Corbyn who I think has performed pretty well in the campaign thus far. The truth is for a myriad of reasons he is not seen as the provider of that stability, safety and security whether your problem is with him, his policies, the company he keeps or the company he has kept and for many it's the full Lucky 15.
The other problem is this is not an election for optimism, positive messages and hope. I think, were we in that world, May would struggle and I think her biggest problem won't be if the A50 negotiations fail but if they succeed and things start going well and people start looking for a different style of leadership for the 2020s because she's no Blair in that regard or rather others can play that role better.
Phrases of the campaign for me 'a reckoning' and 'we are being put on trial'
I dunno about you, but I'm looking forward to Dimbleby revealing all with the bong at ten.
Is he doing it again? That reveal is set to be awesome, I wonder how many times it'll be posted here on PB in those few seconds after the exit poll comes up.... 20? Plus of course the range of expletives we all enjoyed when the last one came out....
I think so, his last hurrah! I remember having a couple-minute moratorium on refreshing PB because of the one min delay on the iPlayer feed!
I believe it is the ideal time to reveal an AV thread here on the second bong.... actually I'd suggest a simple thread header using this tweet.
Farron's LD's lower the Clegg's. 6% swing from LD to Con since 2015.
Several polls where they had edged into the tens at least are now back in single digits. I know recovery was always to be a long road back, but they have to do better than last time or there's really no point. They could end up anywhere from 5-15, and a good result would be anything in double figures, even 10 seats.
I'm starting to regret some of my LD bets now. But we'll see. Still 3 weeks
The Lib Dems' failure to advance at the expense of Labour is a mystery.
Not really. They aren't attacking Labour. They're attacking the Tories. They're letting their natural lefty hearts overwhelm their tactical heads. Badmouthing Mrs May feels better. But it'll get them nowhere. If they had a head they'd be seeking to displace Labour as the party of the centre left. But they're fuckwits. It's an open goal left completely unmolested.
They are demonstrating one of the many downsides of virtue signalling.
Fighting the baby-eaters will increase their chances of sainthood but at the expense of electoral logic.
Phrases of the campaign for me 'a reckoning' and 'we are being put on trial'
I dunno about you, but I'm looking forward to Dimbleby revealing all with the bong at ten.
Is he doing it again? That reveal is set to be awesome, I wonder how many times it'll be posted here on PB in those few seconds after the exit poll comes up.... 20? Plus of course the range of expletives we all enjoyed when the last one came out....
I'm editing PB on general election night again, if the exit poll is as bad as I fear for Labour I plan a very special exit poll thread.
'Some Labour MPs nominated Corbyn for the leadership to widen the debate, you'll never guess what happened next'
Sorry, I edited it but too late. Overall, Trump is acting like he threatened to do before the election. But he was elected. His sin - he means what he said, and he's uncouth.
Sorry, I edited it but too late. Overall, Trump is acting like he threatened to do before the election. But he was elected. His sin - he means what he said, and he's uncouth.
There is a difference, as he changes his mind a lot. That can be a good thing of course, but it's the case that is merely the he meant what he said and has stuck to it,
Phrases of the campaign for me 'a reckoning' and 'we are being put on trial'
I dunno about you, but I'm looking forward to Dimbleby revealing all with the bong at ten.
Is he doing it again? That reveal is set to be awesome, I wonder how many times it'll be posted here on PB in those few seconds after the exit poll comes up.... 20? Plus of course the range of expletives we all enjoyed when the last one came out....
I think so, his last hurrah! I remember having a couple-minute moratorium on refreshing PB because of the one min delay on the iPlayer feed!
I believe it is the ideal time to reveal an AV thread here on the second bong.... actually I'd suggest a simple thread header using this tweet.
Phrases of the campaign for me 'a reckoning' and 'we are being put on trial'
I dunno about you, but I'm looking forward to Dimbleby revealing all with the bong at ten.
Is he doing it again? That reveal is set to be awesome, I wonder how many times it'll be posted here on PB in those few seconds after the exit poll comes up.... 20? Plus of course the range of expletives we all enjoyed when the last one came out....
I'm editing PB on general election night again, if the exit poll is as bad as I fear for Labour I plan a very special exit poll thread.
'Some Labour MPs nominated Corbyn for the leadership to widen the debate, you'll never guess what happened next'
I wonder if Paul Ryan might be a decent outside bet to be the next US president. Mike Pence seems to be heavily integrated into the Trump administration and if the brown stuff really does hit the fan may be a compromised as his boss. Isn't the Speaker of the House second in line to the presidency?
He'd be one of the most spineless US Presidents ever.
I guess to really boost their numbers the LDs would have hoped that people despairing of Corbyn, and knowing the Tories would win anyway, would cite en masses for the LDs instead. However what is happening is those people are saying they'll stick with labour, if the polls have it right.
Phrases of the campaign for me 'a reckoning' and 'we are being put on trial'
I dunno about you, but I'm looking forward to Dimbleby revealing all with the bong at ten.
Is he doing it again? That reveal is set to be awesome, I wonder how many times it'll be posted here on PB in those few seconds after the exit poll comes up.... 20? Plus of course the range of expletives we all enjoyed when the last one came out....
I think so, his last hurrah! I remember having a couple-minute moratorium on refreshing PB because of the one min delay on the iPlayer feed!
I believe it is the ideal time to reveal an AV thread here on the second bong.... actually I'd suggest a simple thread header using this tweet.
The two most worrying aspects concerning this story are firstly that he doesn't appear to have the required degree of self-discipline one would expect from someone in his exalted position. The second and equally serious element is that there doesn't seem to be anyone reining him in and giving him the guidance he evidently requires.
Phrases of the campaign for me 'a reckoning' and 'we are being put on trial'
I dunno about you, but I'm looking forward to Dimbleby revealing all with the bong at ten.
Is he doing it again? That reveal is set to be awesome, I wonder how many times it'll be posted here on PB in those few seconds after the exit poll comes up.... 20? Plus of course the range of expletives we all enjoyed when the last one came out....
I think so, his last hurrah! I remember having a couple-minute moratorium on refreshing PB because of the one min delay on the iPlayer feed!
I believe it is the ideal time to reveal an AV thread here on the second bong.... actually I'd suggest a simple thread header using this tweet.
Comments
Yes, Trump is unpopular, especially so with the media, but what law has he broken?
You can't impeach someone because you don't like his politics. You can't impeach someone because you consider them incompetent. Or can you?
If so, Jezza and Diane had better watch out.
I wonder if this makes Clinton likelier to try, yet again, next time.
The best thing about being historically bad with money is that despite inflation, it feels like my living costs keep dropping every month.
Unpleasant person he might be, but he's not Spiro T by any stretch of the imagination (or if he is, he's hiding it well).
With this batshit economically crazy maifesto I think Jeremy Corbyn's penis is scraping the bottom of the biscuit barrel.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/16/labour-manifesto-would-bankrupt-britain-250bn-debt-biggest-tax/
(Maybe now I understand what Diane Abbot saw in him!)
1. Water companies - of course they are; rail, more questionable
2. Arguable. Under Corbyn... you're having a laugh.
3. See 2.
4. See 1.
5. See 2.
6. Given the current abnormally low borrowing rates - and the willingness of markets to provide surprising amounts of money - I'm not sure that applies. One of the failures of the last couple of administration, IMO, has been the failure to take advantage of once in a lifetime credit conditions to fund genuine capital investment.
But again, see 2.
7. Linked to a rational case for say water nationalisation, then unlikely; see 2.
8. See 2.
9. Couple of points... What percentage of UK water companies are beneficially owned by UK pension funds ? (I suspect not particularly high)
When government borrowing costs are abnormally low, essential infrastructure investment can be funded cheapest directly by government. Whiter government has the skills to most efficiently manage that investment is, of course, another question.
Presidents can get away with being womanisers (JFK, Clinton), not over bright (Ford, Dubya), and even ineffectual (Obama), but they can't get away with being boorish.
Yet he won an election despite this. Now I've very seldom got a government I wanted, I even stopped voting Red when Tony came to power, but you have to respect the decision of the voters, no matter how stupid they are.
The older generation have always accused the younger generation of being soft etc. At the risk of changing into my Grandad, I sense today's youngsters have a larger sense of entitlement than ever before.
Not bad, not good, just different.
There is also the possibility of the 25th Amendment route, but that might be a tough one - after all, he seemed equally nuts when the voters elected him...
The bottom line is that unless a majority in Congress is there to impeach or otherwise remove him, all of the above is moot.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/864743965744128000
It is costing me a fortune in mind bleach
Again this is alleged, not proved, but that it should be a matter of the highest concern isn't surprising.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-jeremy-corbyn-is-a-bigger-vote-winner-than-tony-blair-general-election-labour-2017-5
"You dont just share confidential information on a whim, even with allies."
It would be interesting to examine the records of previous Presidents, and many previous PMs. If Obama were to have done it, I've no doubt many would call it statesmanship. I sense that Trump is personally disliked and that colours opinions.
Mr b, thanks for the information, but is there a specific law Trump has broken? There's no law against being stupid.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/864739351225393152
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/864739968027164672
Sorry, fat finger - it should have been kle4 before
A person commits construction of justice if he or she:
"corruptly, or by threats or force, or by any threatening letter or communication influences, obstructs, or impedes or endeavors to influence, obstruct, or impede the due and proper administration of the law under which any pending proceeding is being had before any department or agency of the United States, or the due and proper exercise of the power of inquiry under which any inquiry or investigation is being had by either House, or any committee of either House or any joint committee of the Congress..."
Whether he has actually broken that law is of course another matter.
Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Chadwick.
It's only 4 months in out of 4 years, give him time.
Compare this:
http://thefederalist.com/2017/05/16/obama-ordered-u-s-intelligence-community-share-intel-cuba/
"If he has told Comey to stop the investigation of Flynn that's Obstruction of Justice."
I'm happy take your word for it, but again I suspect American Presidents have done that and more on a regular basis.
Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Now that really would outrage Luckyguy1983....
It is not just his age, his politics are older than Corbyns. They might even applwal to nostalgics.
"The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion. " Bank of England monetary Policy minutes
The significance of this particular kerfuffle is not that's an impeachable offense, but that it has outraged a number of Republicans in Congress. If Trump loses sufficient support there, and more evidence comes out on the alleged Russia shenanigans, then impeachment becomes a real possibility.
https://twitter.com/GPW_Portland/status/864748526311440387
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39942573
It comes down to this. A popular president can ride it all out. An unpopular president has to watch his step.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39943496
If he doesn't go over this, it's going to be something else equally fuckwitted that gets him and it won't be long in coming.
A forlorn hope: but maybe when all this over, the left will just get a tiny glimmer of appreciation for the basic professionalism of Blair, Brown, Campbell, Gould etc.
If he is announcing a Tory landslide, then obviously Twitter will break under the strain of cult dismay. I do genuinely fear the Samaritans hotline will be needed.
On another matter, yet more talk of may and Hammond rowing on guido, someone has been briefing against him for months, trailing that he will be sacked etc. The days of harmony between number 10 and 11 is over.
Not really. They aren't attacking Labour. They're attacking the Tories. They're letting their natural lefty hearts overwhelm their tactical heads. Badmouthing Mrs May feels better. But it'll get them nowhere. If they had a head they'd be seeking to displace Labour as the party of the centre left. But they're fuckwits. It's an open goal left completely unmolested.
Nice to see the Labour Manifesto being so carefully filleted, analysed, dissected and disembowelled by so many on here. I'm sure the LD manifesto will get the same treatment later on today.
From the start, I've considered May as less Thatcher's daughter than Heseltine's or possibly Heath's and the more we see of May's Conservative vision (and it's not social conservatism), the more I see the influence of Heseltine.
I'd go further - May's vision is more akin to British-style social democracy but rather the David Owen flavour than the Shirley Williams brand. There's nothing in anything May has said that wasn't said by Heseltine or Owen or others. Indeed, some of her policy ideas could and have come from Labour. The Coalition was accused by some of being a Lib Dem Government headed by a Conservative - perhaps we will now see a Labour Government headed by a Conservative.
The interventionist role of the State is the key - unlike Labour which sees the State itself as the mechanism for change, Heseltine/Owen/May see the State as enforcer of legislation as that mechanism so the next five years will see social change and engineering via legislation compelling businesses and local authorities and individuals to change.
It's a million miles away from the laissez-faire, "let the markets do the work" of Thatcher.
Not that any of this matters that much for now - the core of May's appeal is simply her ability to play to uncertainty and anxiety. Whether or not you think it's the right road to be on, the path out the EU and into what looks an uncertain future creates a desire among many for stability, safety and security even if all you want is to hide under the bed until it's all over.
Then there's Jeremy Corbyn who I think has performed pretty well in the campaign thus far. The truth is for a myriad of reasons he is not seen as the provider of that stability, safety and security whether your problem is with him, his policies, the company he keeps or the company he has kept and for many it's the full Lucky 15.
The other problem is this is not an election for optimism, positive messages and hope. I think, were we in that world, May would struggle and I think her biggest problem won't be if the A50 negotiations fail but if they succeed and things start going well and people start looking for a different style of leadership for the 2020s because she's no Blair in that regard or rather others can play that role better.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/829436790763315207
Fighting the baby-eaters will increase their chances of sainthood but at the expense of electoral logic.
'Some Labour MPs nominated Corbyn for the leadership to widen the debate, you'll never guess what happened next'
"Wasn't me who said that,"
Sorry, I edited it but too late. Overall, Trump is acting like he threatened to do before the election. But he was elected. His sin - he means what he said, and he's uncouth.
Any AV thread is awesome.
Excellent post