I guess I can say something useful about Exeter having stood there against Ben years ago. The Labour machine there is formidable - far outstripping the Tories who are a bit of a shower to be honest. I wouldn't attach too much significance to the Bradshaw personal vote, like nearly everywhere else half the voters do not know or care who their MP is, they vote for the party they see on TV, and like most of provincial England there is very little of the champagne socialist and revolutionary contingent to find JC anything other than radioactive. There will be a flood of pro-hunting activists for the Tories, nothing else for them to do anywhere nearby as the LibDems are busted in Brexitland. My experience of them is that they are exactly the kind of people that anti-hunting fanatics (of which Ben is one) say they are and are best left to deliver leaflets and god forbid they actually talk to anyone. A sighter might be that Labour retained all their seats last week, but the additional GE voters in Exeter probably lean May far more than Corbyn.
Having said all that my conclusion would be that if national swings are big enough BB won't outperform hugely.. a few pct extra will wash him away too.
The thing that should be remembered about Exeter is that the sizeable student vote will likely be diminished by the timing in June rather than May. We haven't had a June Election since 2001 so that may benefit the Tories.
The Tory candidate went backwards in Cardiff West in 2015.
The Libdem vote collapsed in 2015 from 10000 to 2000 so there might be a recovery in that particularly remain voters.
The Ukip Vote was 5000 in 2015 and no candidate this time
I think this will be too close to call but would roughly estimate
Green Joe Levy 3500 Labour Ben Bradshaw 21500 Conservative James Taghdissian 22500 Liberal Democrat Vanessa Newcombe 4000 Independent Jonathan West ? Independent Jonathan Bishop ?
Do you know anything about the independents?
I don't.. assume the usual suspects looking for their 15 minutes. Though one of them has given an address in Wales which is bizarre even by Indy standards.
Exeter students are an interesting bunch. Not so long ago the VC of the University noted its reputation as recruiting from the four corners of Surrey. Demographically they are still very far from the University of Neasden etc.. indeed the only divison in the constituency held by the Tories is the one that contains the University and its Halls.
Unfortunately, MS have been idiots with patches in the last year or two, installing advertising and telemetry software as 'critical' meaning a lot of people turned updates off. I've got a busy few days ahead of me, night all!
@JonWC Molly Scott Cato had been on Radio 4 in mid February making noises of approval for a farm policy with subsidies for farmers and VAT on meat products.
I guess I can say something useful about Exeter having stood there against Ben years ago. The Labour machine there is formidable - far outstripping the Tories who are a bit of a shower to be honest. I wouldn't attach too much significance to the Bradshaw personal vote, like nearly everywhere else half the voters do not know or care who their MP is, they vote for the party they see on TV, and like most of provincial England there is very little of the champagne socialist and revolutionary contingent to find JC anything other than radioactive. There will be a flood of pro-hunting activists for the Tories, nothing else for them to do anywhere nearby as the LibDems are busted in Brexitland. My experience of them is that they are exactly the kind of people that anti-hunting fanatics (of which Ben is one) say they are and are best left to deliver leaflets and god forbid they actually talk to anyone. A sighter might be that Labour retained all their seats last week, but the additional GE voters in Exeter probably lean May far more than Corbyn.
Having said all that my conclusion would be that if national swings are big enough BB won't outperform hugely.. a few pct extra will wash him away too.
The thing that should be remembered about Exeter is that the sizeable student vote will likely be diminished by the timing in June rather than May. We haven't had a June Election since 2001 so that may benefit the Tories.
The Tory candidate went backwards in Cardiff West in 2015.
The Libdem vote collapsed in 2015 from 10000 to 2000 so there might be a recovery in that particularly remain voters.
The Ukip Vote was 5000 in 2015 and no candidate this time
I think this will be too close to call but would roughly estimate
Green Joe Levy 3500 Labour Ben Bradshaw 21500 Conservative James Taghdissian 22500 Liberal Democrat Vanessa Newcombe 4000 Independent Jonathan West ? Independent Jonathan Bishop ?
Do you know anything about the independents?
I don't.. assume the usual suspects looking for their 15 minutes. Though one of them has given an address in Wales which is bizarre even by Indy standards.
Exeter students are an interesting bunch. Not so long ago the VC of the University noted its reputation as recruiting from the four corners of Surrey. Demographically they are still very far from the University of Neasden etc.. indeed the only divison in the constituency held by the Tories is the one that contains the University and its Halls.
It was known as 'The Green Wellie Uni' when my daughter was there 20 years ago. Anything changed since?
Unfortunately, MS have been idiots with patches in the last year or two, installing advertising and telemetry software as 'critical' meaning a lot of people turned updates off. I've got a busy few days ahead of me, night all!
So if when I type in Updates into the search bar it says "updated today at 12:11" etc I am in the clear?
Unfortunately, MS have been idiots with patches in the last year or two, installing advertising and telemetry software as 'critical' meaning a lot of people turned updates off. I've got a busy few days ahead of me, night all!
Symantec have a signature for this, as do Cisco Sourcefire
The Northern Ireland Conservatives are standing in 7 seats. Isn't one of them a long shot (rather than a no hoper)?
Are they running in West Belfast again ?
Makes Liverpool look like rural Oxfordshire in terms of Tory friendliness
No. The list from the website is:
The constituencies and prospective parliamentary candidates are as follows:
East Antrim - Mark Logan East Belfast - Sheila Bodel East Londonderry - Liz St Claire-Legge Lagan Valley - Ian Nickels North Down - Frank Shivers Strangford - Claire Hiscott South Belfast - Clare Salier
I guess I can say something useful about Exeter having stood there against Ben years ago. The Labour machine there is formidable - far outstripping the Tories who are a bit of a shower to be honest. I wouldn't attach too much significance to the Bradshaw personal vote, like nearly everywhere else half the voters do not know or care who their MP is, they vote for the party they see on TV, and like most of provincial England there is very little of the champagne socialist and revolutionary contingent to find JC anything other than radioactive. There will be a flood of pro-hunting activists for the Tories, nothing else for them to do anywhere nearby as the LibDems are busted in Brexitland. My experience of them is that they are exactly the kind of people that anti-hunting fanatics (of which Ben is one) say they are and are best left to deliver leaflets and god forbid they actually talk to anyone. A sighter might be that Labour retained all their seats last week, but the additional GE voters in Exeter probably lean May far more than Corbyn.
Having said all that my conclusion would be that if national swings are big enough BB won't outperform hugely.. a few pct extra will wash him away too.
The thing that should be remembered about Exeter is that the sizeable student vote will likely be diminished by the timing in June rather than May. We haven't had a June Election since 2001 so that may benefit the Tories.
The Tory candidate went backwards in Cardiff West in 2015.
The Libdem vote collapsed in 2015 from 10000 to 2000 so there might be a recovery in that particularly remain voters.
The Ukip Vote was 5000 in 2015 and no candidate this time
I think this will be too close to call but would roughly estimate
Green Joe Levy 3500 Labour Ben Bradshaw 21500 Conservative James Taghdissian 22500 Liberal Democrat Vanessa Newcombe 4000 Independent Jonathan West ? Independent Jonathan Bishop ?
Do you know anything about the independents?
I don't.. assume the usual suspects looking for their 15 minutes. Though one of them has given an address in Wales which is bizarre even by Indy standards.
Exeter students are an interesting bunch. Not so long ago the VC of the University noted its reputation as recruiting from the four corners of Surrey. Demographically they are still very far from the University of Neasden etc.. indeed the only divison in the constituency held by the Tories is the one that contains the University and its Halls.
It was known as 'The Green Wellie Uni' when my daughter was there 20 years ago. Anything changed since?
There has been a gradual decline in the number of girls called Hannah but from what I can tell it has levelled off at a still stratospheric level.
The Northern Ireland Conservatives are standing in 7 seats. Isn't one of them a long shot (rather than a no hoper)?
Are they running in West Belfast again ?
Makes Liverpool look like rural Oxfordshire in terms of Tory friendliness
No. The list from the website is:
The constituencies and prospective parliamentary candidates are as follows:
East Antrim - Mark Logan East Belfast - Sheila Bodel East Londonderry - Liz St Claire-Legge Lagan Valley - Ian Nickels North Down - Frank Shivers Strangford - Claire Hiscott South Belfast - Clare Salier
Other than South Belfast, all are staunchly Unionist places with relatively few Catholics
Not suggesting either are bets, but Hills have UKIP to win Thurrock at 6/1, and UKIP over 0.5 seats at 8/1... how can they be so stupid?!
Is it that they're stupid or that the punters are? Clearly any punter that bets on Thurrock is, I'm not sure Hills are for having that price if they're taking bets though.
It appears Lynton is just moving the campaign out of first gear...
'Proud and patriotic working class people in towns and cities across Britain have not deserted the Labour Party – Jeremy Corbyn has deserted them.
'But across the country today, traditional Labour supporters are increasingly looking at what Jeremy Corbyn believes in and are appalled.'
'Labour voters are appalled because they see a leader who can't lead, a shadow chancellor in John McDonnell who can't be trusted and a Shadow Home Secretary like Diane Abbott who can't add up,' she added.
Not suggesting either are bets, but Hills have UKIP to win Thurrock at 6/1, and UKIP over 0.5 seats at 8/1... how can they be so stupid?!
Is it that they're stupid or that the punters are? Clearly any punter that bets on Thurrock is, I'm not sure Hills are for having that price if they're taking bets though.
Maybe. I think it is an oversight rather than a tactic to be honest
Unfortunately, MS have been idiots with patches in the last year or two, installing advertising and telemetry software as 'critical' meaning a lot of people turned updates off. I've got a busy few days ahead of me, night all!
So if when I type in Updates into the search bar it says "updated today at 12:11" etc I am in the clear?
You're probably okay if it is set to auto install updates. Also check updates on whatever antivirus software you have, and make sure to keep a backup of your important files (contents of c:\users\{your username} ) in a safe place offline - so if you do get infected you won't lose data.
Exeter - Labour hold - good MP and good campaign. The article he wrote for Tristan Hunts book on Labour in England was instructive.
Don Valley - Labour hold. Not enough Tories.
Rochdale - Labour but close run thing. Don't think Tony Lloyd being from Manchester will help. Its a bit Royston Vasey up there - local constituency for local people.
Bristol West - Toss up. Maybe Green.
Hartlepool - Labour squeak it.
Thurrock - Tory hold easy
Sheffield Hallam - Clegg hold;
East Renfrewshire - Tory gain ? although I believe the constituency has added a couple of council schemes since the days when it was a Tory stronghold.
Torfaen - Labour hold; Not enough Tories.
Carmarthen East - Plaid hold;
Belfast South - Alliance gain
You seem a lot more buoyant on Labour than most others who've played this game? How many Labour MPs are you forecasting?
180-190
Don't think that the lab->UKIP->Tory swing is going to play out in urban Labour heartlands. Too much anti Tory history for too many people. UKIP voters on sink estates won't vote Tory in great numbers imho.
I am a little more cautious, but not too far away at 175.
I see Fisher is in the same ballpark.
I'm really not sure and have not placed a serious bet on this election yet, but if you guys are right, Labour are a buy at 160 on the spreads.
For a while now I've been suspecting that Labour are oversold generally, and could be tempted in at current prices. Maybe. Still not sure.
I am holding back on the majority of my post Macron stake money. I did get some early bets in on the downside for the LDs, so should be in the black on anything up to 30. If over 30 I will be poorer but happier!
4 weeks to go, though. Fallon could throw around the words 'unilateral disarmament' for 21 days in succession, starting next week, with similar results to 1983.
After 38 years of laissez faire economics, it's delivered lower growth and worse inequality than the previous years of government intervention. It doesn't seem a brilliant advert for 'the market will provide'.
CE & D -- where is the evidence that this seat voted Leave?
Carmarthenshire voted Leave 53.7 to 46.3. It is not contiguous with CE & D.
Carmarthenshire includes the seat of Llanelli, which is demographically similar to Swansea East or Neath, where we know there was a big Leave vote.
My guess is Llanelli voted overwhelming Leave, and CE & D voted Remain.
Plaid increased their Councillors on Carmarthenshire Council. In fact, Plaid did well in rural areas, increasing their councillors in Ynys Mon, Gwynedd, Ceredigion & Carmarthenshire. They didn't do very well in the cities.
This is PC hold.
Rural Carmarthenshire, like Ceredigion to its north, just doesn't vote Tory. I think there is a case to be made that the core reason is not socio-economic make-up nor language, but religion: these areas are the traditional core of Welsh Non-conformism, and still remember that the Church of England was once characterised as the Tory Party at prayer.
The Tory vote in both Carmathenshire and Cardiganshire increased dramatically in 1979 and the Tories came close to winning both seats in the 1980s.
The Lib Dems have already said the Tories cannot win here so thats it!
In the old seat of Carmarthen, the most Tory parts were put in the new seat of Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire (which the Tories now hold).
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr is not very promising territory for them. There are no Tory Councillors at all on Carmarthenshire Council.
I really don’t think it is probable that the Tories can take Carmarthen East & Dinefwr -- Meeks has been misled by thinking because Carmarthenshire voted Leave that means Carmarthen East & Dinefwr did.
CE & D -- where is the evidence that this seat voted Leave?
Carmarthenshire voted Leave 53.7 to 46.3. It is not contiguous with CE & D.
Carmarthenshire includes the seat of Llanelli, which is demographically similar to Swansea East or Neath, where we know there was a big Leave vote.
My guess is Llanelli voted overwhelming Leave, and CE & D voted Remain.
Plaid increased their Councillors on Carmarthenshire Council. In fact, Plaid did well in rural areas, increasing their councillors in Ynys Mon, Gwynedd, Ceredigion & Carmarthenshire. They didn't do very well in the cities.
This is PC hold.
Rural Carmarthenshire, like Ceredigion to its north, just doesn't vote Tory. I think there is a case to be made that the core reason is not socio-economic make-up nor language, but religion: these areas are the traditional core of Welsh Non-conformism, and still remember that the Church of England was once characterised as the Tory Party at prayer.
The Tory vote in both Carmathenshire and Cardiganshire increased dramatically in 1979 and the Tories came close to winning both seats in the 1980s.
The Lib Dems have already said the Tories cannot win here so thats it!
CE & D -- where is the evidence that this seat voted Leave?
Carmarthenshire voted Leave 53.7 to 46.3. It is not contiguous with CE & D.
Carmarthenshire includes the seat of Llanelli, which is demographically similar to Swansea East or Neath, where we know there was a big Leave vote.
My guess is Llanelli voted overwhelming Leave, and CE & D voted Remain.
Plaid increased their Councillors on Carmarthenshire Council. In fact, Plaid did well in rural areas, increasing their councillors in Ynys Mon, Gwynedd, Ceredigion & Carmarthenshire. They didn't do very well in the cities.
This is PC hold.
Rural Carmarthenshire, like Ceredigion to its north, just doesn't vote Tory. I think there is a case to be made that the core reason is not socio-economic make-up nor language, but religion: these areas are the traditional core of Welsh Non-conformism, and still remember that the Church of England was once characterised as the Tory Party at prayer.
The Tory vote in both Carmathenshire and Cardiganshire increased dramatically in 1979 and the Tories came close to winning both seats in the 1980s.
The Lib Dems have already said the Tories cannot win here so thats it!
In the old seat of Carmarthen, the most Tory parts were put in the new seat of Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire (which the Tories now hold).
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr is not very promising territory for them. There are no Tory Councillors at all on Carmarthenshire Council.
I really don’t think it is probable that the Tories can take Carmarthen East & Dinefwr -- Meeks has been misled by thinking because Carmarthenshire voted Leave that means Carmarthen East & Dinefwr did.
wellLord Ashcroft in his polls has Ceredigion as too close to call although Plaids vote share went down by 3%in the locals - he is a locally bornWElsh lad with both grandfather and father having been local police officers so he may do quite well
Exeter - Labour hold - good MP and good campaign. The article he wrote for Tristan Hunts book on Labour in England was instructive.
Don Valley - Labour hold. Not enough Tories.
Rochdale - Labour but close run thing. Don't think Tony Lloyd being from Manchester will help. Its a bit Royston Vasey up there - local constituency for local people.
Bristol West - Toss up. Maybe Green.
Hartlepool - Labour squeak it.
Thurrock - Tory hold easy
Sheffield Hallam - Clegg hold;
East Renfrewshire - Tory gain ? although I believe the constituency has added a couple of council schemes since the days when it was a Tory stronghold.
Torfaen - Labour hold; Not enough Tories.
Carmarthen East - Plaid hold;
Belfast South - Alliance gain
You seem a lot more buoyant on Labour than most others who've played this game? How many Labour MPs are you forecasting?
180-190
Don't think that the lab->UKIP->Tory swing is going to play out in urban Labour heartlands. Too much anti Tory history for too many people. UKIP voters on sink estates won't vote Tory in great numbers imho.
I am a little more cautious, but not too far away at 175.
I see Fisher is in the same ballpark.
I'm really not sure and have not placed a serious bet on this election yet, but if you guys are right, Labour are a buy at 160 on the spreads.
For a while now I've been suspecting that Labour are oversold generally, and could be tempted in at current prices. Maybe. Still not sure.
I am holding back on the majority of my post Macron stake money. I did get some early bets in on the downside for the LDs, so should be in the black on anything up to 30. If over 30 I will be poorer but happier!
4 weeks to go, though. Fallon could throw around the words 'unilateral disarmament' for 21 days in succession, starting next week, with similar results to 1983.
After 38 years of laissez faire economics, it's delivered lower growth and worse inequality than the previous years of government intervention. It doesn't seem a brilliant advert for 'the market will provide'.
Labour's policy is more akin to 1964 than 1983. Unilateralism was also not as damaging to Labour in 1987 as 1983 - though still a negative drag on its vote. Likely to be much less so in post-Cold War environment.
Seems tough to be deputy speaker. You have to fill in for the speaker, which cannot be easy, but you don't get the security of a seat for as long as they want that convention (usually) affords the speaker.
Some people on Twitter seem to think that Corbyn is very popular and everyone hates May and it's the press that are lying. Begs belief it really does.
I've thought about this, and I think it's actually probably very good news, for my book at least.
My Facebook, Twitter and so on are bombarded day after day with the usual suspects pumping out the most ridiculous, hate-filled, f**k the tories nonsense.
I'm pretty certain it a) makes people think the race is a lot closer than it is and b) drives swing voters away from Labour in their droves.
#FakeTweet from Diane Abbott hts://twitter.com/HackneyAbbott/status/862950493198458880 …
youth unemployment fell from 19.1% in 2010 to 12.6% in 2016
Seems an odd thing to include if it is so easily refuted - it's not like she's in any danger of losing in her own seat, and there's plenty of true or at least open to interpretation facts which will harm the Tories.
Yes, the issue was patched a couple of months ago. KB4013389 Windows XP and Server 2003 are no longer supported and there won't be a fix for those operating systems.
I can't see patch KB4013389 in my windows update history but my device has just done an update for Windows Defender...
I do like the Ashcroft Model attempts to put a 'Brexit acceptance' figure on to its constituency extrapolations, with 'enthusiast', 'accepter' and 'resister' being the options.
Doesn't appear it has any 'probability' more definite than 'likely' from what I can see from a few - Liverpool Walton is 'likely Labour' and Maindenhead 'Likely conservative'.
Some people on Twitter seem to think that Corbyn is very popular and everyone hates May and it's the press that are lying. Begs belief it really does.
I've thought about this, and I think it's actually probably very good news, for my book at least.
My Facebook, Twitter and so on are bombarded day after day with the usual suspects pumping out the most ridiculous, hate-filled, f**k the tories nonsense.
I'm pretty certain it a) makes people think the race is a lot closer than it is and b) drives swing voters away from Labour in their droves.
To be honest, My Facebook feed, seams to have less 'Tory's are baby eaters Corbyn is the saver' things on it that even a year ago.
I had thought that even his strongest cyber warriors where getting board, but maybe my labour supporting friends have defriended me without me realising, or perhaps the Facebook algorithm is hiding it form me.
Ive posted on South Belfast twice, suggesting a DUP gain.
I did this in 2105 and got burned as McDonnell held on with one of the lowest winning percentages you could imagine, in fact one of the lowest in parliamentary history. Honestly, some day the arse is going to fall out his vote, you do get the feeling that he is teetering at times and his survival ironically was probably helped by the handful of guilty unionist votes that he has collected consistently over the years.
Paula Bradshaw for Alliance is a strong campaigner but where will she pick up votes from? They would have to be UUP votes, which she has already farmed some (Paula could wear a sash on a good day) or the SDLPs if McDonnell falls off a cliff. How much more can she get? Open question. Her more likely target to steal is McDonnell.
The DUP were beaten out last time by the presence of Bob Stoker of UKIP who's 1900 votes did the damage. Stoker is a long standing ex UUP guy in the area and he carries a decent vote. He is not standing, partially as a nudge to the Unionist parties to get their act together in the constituency. Where his votes go in a tight race is most likely DUP, if they turn out
The DUP should really win this seat and that they don't is part of a long term problem in mobilising the Unionist vote, in particular the working class unionist vote. They have, sadly perhaps, picked former Assembly member Pengelly as candidate. She is not exactly a standout, therefore her ability to mobilise any more than the 2015 tally vote plus some homeless UKIP voters is open to question. That could well be enough though and I have backed that it is.
Yes South Belfast is in many ways diverse with a mix old money, new blow ins with cash, students, people who still think they are students and a more ethnically diverse element. It also holds some large loyalist areas like Taughmonagh (where the head of UDA hangs out), the Village and Belvoir. It is these areas that could close it for the DUP if they turned out but the loyalists have long had a fairly fractious history with the DUP, something that the ignorant from the outside don't quite understand.
On the nationalist side Sinn Fein have been improving and if they perform similarly or slightly above 2015 may fatally hurt McDonnell. They'd be delighted to do so in their war to eliminate the SDLP.
Side note. A number of election counts including Belfast constituencies will be held at the former site of the Maze prison. Should bring back a few memories for some party hacks...
My last job got ransomwared before I left, we lost two work days to it and IT had to revert the entire system to back up tapes from three days before. The problem is a lot of places don't take care of their backups, sooooo.......
0.537655347 Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 0.553661948 Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South
Awfully precise estimates.
How does this make sense? The whole of Carmarthenshire was 53.7 percent leave.
CE & D is the most Remain-friendly and so has to be below 53.7 (just as Llanelli is the most Leave-friendly and has to be above 53.7). Pembrokeshire was 57 % Leave, and so CW & SP must be more Leave-friendly than CE & D.
Hanratty is taking three numbers equal to or above 53.7 (the Leave percentages for Llanelli, CE&D and the Carmarthen parts of CW & SP) and saying their average is 53.7.
These figures are GIGO.
It looks as though Hanratty should be helping Diane Abbott with her sums.
My last job got ransomwared before I left, we lost two work days to it and IT had to revert the entire system to back up tapes from three days before. The problem is a lot of places don't take care of their backups, sooooo.......
I would assume that hospitals have very regular backups or better still continuous data protection, if there are places that don't then heads should roll.
My last job got ransomwared before I left, we lost two work days to it and IT had to revert the entire system to back up tapes from three days before. The problem is a lot of places don't take care of their backups, sooooo.......
I would assume that hospitals have very regular backups or better still continuous data protection, if there are places that don't then heads should roll.
I would hope they do, but it only takes one person trying to save server space with less regular backups....that's what happened at my last place as they should have backed up every night.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 150 - 199 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
CE & D -- where is the evidence that this seat voted Leave?
Carmarthenshire voted Leave 53.7 to 46.3. It is not contiguous with CE & D.
Carmarthenshire includes the seat of Llanelli, which is demographically similar to Swansea East or Neath, where we know there was a big Leave vote.
My guess is Llanelli voted overwhelming Leave, and CE & D voted Remain.
Plaid increased their Councillors on Carmarthenshire Council. In fact, Plaid did well in rural areas, increasing their councillors in Ynys Mon, Gwynedd, Ceredigion & Carmarthenshire. They didn't do very well in the cities.
This is PC hold.
Rural Carmarthenshire, like Ceredigion to its north, just doesn't vote Tory. I think there is a case to be made that the core reason is not socio-economic make-up nor language, but religion: these areas are the traditional core of Welsh Non-conformism, and still remember that the Church of England was once characterised as the Tory Party at prayer.
The Tory vote in both Carmathenshire and Cardiganshire increased dramatically in 1979 and the Tories came close to winning both seats in the 1980s.
The Lib Dems have already said the Tories cannot win here so thats it!
In the old seat of Carmarthen, the most Tory parts were put in the new seat of Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire (which the Tories now hold).
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr is not very promising territory for them. There are no Tory Councillors at all on Carmarthenshire Council.
I really don’t think it is probable that the Tories can take Carmarthen East & Dinefwr -- Meeks has been misled by thinking because Carmarthenshire voted Leave that means Carmarthen East & Dinefwr did.
wellLord Ashcroft in his polls has Ceredigion as too close to call although Plaids vote share went down by 3%in the locals - he is a locally bornWElsh lad with both grandfather and father having been local police officers so he may do quite well
I think the crucial point is the one you made earlier -- term will have ended in Aber & the students will have gone down
To produce a LibDem/PC marginal, you need to put two Universities in a West Wales constituency. The University towns provide the bulk of the LibDem vote.
Some people on Twitter seem to think that Corbyn is very popular and everyone hates May and it's the press that are lying. Begs belief it really does.
I've thought about this, and I think it's actually probably very good news, for my book at least.
My Facebook, Twitter and so on are bombarded day after day with the usual suspects pumping out the most ridiculous, hate-filled, f**k the tories nonsense.
I'm pretty certain it a) makes people think the race is a lot closer than it is and b) drives swing voters away from Labour in their droves.
To be honest, My Facebook feed, seams to have less 'Tory's are baby eaters Corbyn is the saver' things on it that even a year ago.
I had thought that even his strongest cyber warriors where getting board, but maybe my labour supporting friends have defriended me without me realising, or perhaps the Facebook algorithm is hiding it form me.
Yes, I think the Facebook algorithm is hiding it much better this year. It's more or less figured out that people don't want a party political in their ear every time they log in to look at baby photos or cat vids or pictures of their ex... and Facebook wants us to spend more time there to serve us more ads, so has adjusted accordingly.
On the other hand, one of the things I'm genuinely surprised at is the correlation between the my friends who are most vocally pro-Corbyn being those who were most vocally anti-Brexit. I had completely assumed they would go Lib Dem and not a single one has.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 150 - 199 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
I don't understand your reasoning.
If people are reminded about security dangers who does that help.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
You're right of course in the sense that this was a global attack, but that said it smacks of earth-shattering incompetence taking into account the fact that it could have been avoided by the simple use of a Microsoft "patch" which had been readily available for some time. If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
Can't see this affecting any seats at all. Based on the vulnerability this is going to get a lot lot worse over the next few days. Large organisations all over the world will be hit. I'm in IT and our machines are unpatched.
If people are reminded about security dangers who does that help.
I certainly think the government needs to give every department a boot up the arse to keep software up to date, and I don't just mean patches they need to migrate regularly to new OS versions. But the idea that Corbyn and co. would do a better job of defending the country from any type of threat is laughable. They are a bunch of innumerate CND/STW Marxists and terrorist sympathisers, the very last people you would want in charge during a crisis.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 150 - 199 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Why stop at 10-20 seats? Why not 50? Or a 100? Why not a Corbyn landslide?
Not suggesting either are bets, but Hills have UKIP to win Thurrock at 6/1, and UKIP over 0.5 seats at 8/1... how can they be so stupid?!
Is it that they're stupid or that the punters are? Clearly any punter that bets on Thurrock is, I'm not sure Hills are for having that price if they're taking bets though.
Maybe. I think it is an oversight rather than a tactic to be honest
Indeed.
It wouldn't surprise me if when Thurrock was priced at 6/1 if UKIP over 0.5 seats was 6/1 or less - and due to market changes UKIP over 0.5 seats has moved out to 8/1 but Thurrock has not yet shifted with it as there's probably very little movement in that market for them.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
You're right of course in the sense that this was a global attack, but that said it smacks of earth-shattering incompetence taking into account the fact that it could have been avoided by the simple use of a Microsoft "patch" which had been readily available for some time. If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
Are you really saying that the Conservative party has been stopping NHS IT security ?
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 150 - 199 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
You're right of course in the sense that this was a global attack, but that said it smacks of earth-shattering incompetence taking into account the fact that it could have been avoided by the simple use of a Microsoft "patch" which had been readily available for some time. If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
Organisations not being up to date with their Microsoft patches is probably not breaking news to anyone who pays enough attention to this sort of thing and will surely not affect those who don't pay enough attention to this sort of thing.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
You're right of course in the sense that this was a global attack, but that said it smacks of earth-shattering incompetence taking into account the fact that it could have been avoided by the simple use of a Microsoft "patch" which had been readily available for some time. If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
Are you really saying that the Conservative party has been stopping NHS IT security ?
Really, your reasoning is bizarre.
No, I'm simply saying that the Government will be held responsible for major shortcomings in the NHS, which whether true or not these will inevitably be put down to under-funding .... it has simply been forever thus. Don't take my word for it, just wait for the next batch of polls to appear over the next few days and you'll see for yourself.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
You're right of course in the sense that this was a global attack, but that said it smacks of earth-shattering incompetence taking into account the fact that it could have been avoided by the simple use of a Microsoft "patch" which had been readily available for some time. If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
Are you really saying that the Conservative party has been stopping NHS IT security ?
Really, your reasoning is bizarre.
I thought the point was not whether the Conservative party has directly been stopping NHS IT security, but whether the government would be blamed for the failings of NHS IT security on this scale. I find it hard to believe it would add anything - the NHS is a massive and unwieldy organisation which many people have frustrations with and criticisms to make, and many will, reasonably or not, blame the government and this the Tories specifically for that. But for people who were not already voting anything but Tory to be so angered by an IT failing to make the several steps leap of logic necessary to explicitly blame the Tories, in enough numbers in enough places to sway 10-20 seats? I cannot see it.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
You're right of course in the sense that this was a global attack, but that said it smacks of earth-shattering incompetence taking into account the fact that it could have been avoided by the simple use of a Microsoft "patch" which had been readily available for some time. If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
You're right of course in the sense that this was a global attack, but that said it smacks of earth-shattering incompetence taking into account the fact that it could have been avoided by the simple use of a Microsoft "patch" which had been readily available for some time. If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
Are you really saying that the Conservative party has been stopping NHS IT security ?
Really, your reasoning is bizarre.
No, I'm simply saying that the Government will be held responsible for major shortcomings in the NHS, which whether true or not will inevitably be put down to under-funding .... it has simply been forever thus. Don't take my word for it, just wait for the next batch of polls to appear over the next few days and you'll see for yourself.
You seem to be in a minority of one among PBers discussing this.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
You're right of course in the sense that this was a global attack, but that said it smacks of earth-shattering incompetence taking into account the fact that it could have been avoided by the simple use of a Microsoft "patch" which had been readily available for some time. If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
Are you really saying that the Conservative party has been stopping NHS IT security ?
Really, your reasoning is bizarre.
No, I'm simply saying that the Government will be held responsible for major shortcomings in the NHS, which whether true or not will inevitably be put down to under-funding .... it has simply been forever thus. Don't take my word for it, just wait for the next batch of polls to appear over the next few days and you'll see for yourself.
You seem to be in a minority of one among PBers discussing this.
Which is odd because normally there are lots of pb-ers still talking about the failed IT project under Labour, yet suddenly NHS IT is of no interest to them.
No, I'm simply saying that the Government will be held responsible for major shortcomings in the NHS, which whether true or not these will inevitably be put down to under-funding .... it has simply been forever thus. Don't take my word for it, just wait for the next batch of polls to appear over the next few days and you'll see for yourself.
Not sure I buy into the theory, but if it does have an impact who benefits in a fully devolved system?
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
You're right of course in the sense that this was a global attack, but that said it smacks of earth-shattering incompetence taking into account the fact that it could have been avoided by the simple use of a Microsoft "patch" which had been readily available for some time. If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
Are you really saying that the Conservative party has been stopping NHS IT security ?
Really, your reasoning is bizarre.
No, I'm simply saying that the Government will be held responsible for major shortcomings in the NHS, which whether true or not will inevitably be put down to under-funding .... it has simply been forever thus. Don't take my word for it, just wait for the next batch of polls to appear over the next few days and you'll see for yourself.
You seem to be in a minority of one among PBers discussing this.
Which is odd because normally there are lots of pb-ers still talking about the failed IT project under Labour, yet suddenly NHS IT is of no interest to them.
Its not an IT project though is it but rather basic IT security.
The government need to get all over this NHS shambles quick sharp, which I expect them to do all weekend. Tricky in the middle of an election campaign, but necessary. Labour will of course blame them for this, but it will be forgotten about by the end of next week. Impact on the GE result - precisely zero.
Which is odd because normally there are lots of pb-ers still talking about the failed IT project under Labour, yet suddenly NHS IT is of no interest to them.
There are several pieces to this.
The attack exploits a vulnerability that was patched in March, and published in April. If you are bang up to date with your patching, you should be OK.
But the NHS systems were not.
One reason might simply be scale.
I have been on a conference call all evening with our global IT leaders, and all of our security vendors discussing this. We have managed anti-virus on all our systems, and the latest updates have signatures for this, so we have been OK, so far.
We also have SCCM patching for our windows machines, but, we don't have them all patched yet. Although the patch was in the March release, we run the patch through QA on our systems before deployment, then it takes 21 days to patch every device around the globe, partly to make sure we don't swamp the bandwidth on any links, and also to stagger the reboot cycles.
The NHS ought to be testing patches before deployment, and then they also have similar scale and timing issues to deal with.
The other issue with healthcare I mentioned earlier is that certain clinical systems can't be patched. The vendor will not support them if you change the platform in any way, as I understand it.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
You're right of course in the sense that this was a global attack, but that said it smacks of earth-shattering incompetence taking into account the fact that it could have been avoided by the simple use of a Microsoft "patch" which had been readily available for some time. If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
Are you really saying that the Conservative party has been stopping NHS IT security ?
Really, your reasoning is bizarre.
No, I'm simply saying that the Government will be held responsible for major shortcomings in the NHS, which whether true or not will inevitably be put down to under-funding .... it has simply been forever thus. Don't take my word for it, just wait for the next batch of polls to appear over the next few days and you'll see for yourself.
You seem to be in a minority of one among PBers discussing this.
Which is odd because normally there are lots of pb-ers still talking about the failed IT project under Labour, yet suddenly NHS IT is of no interest to them.
Its not an IT project though is it but rather basic IT security.
As always, it's more complicated than that but in terms of an electoral price, let's see how it looks in the morning, especially with the foreign dimension, and how the parties respond.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
You're right of course in the sense that this was a global attack, but that said it smacks of earth-shattering incompetence taking into account the fact that it could have been avoided by the simple use of a Microsoft "patch" which had been readily available for some time. If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
Are you really saying that the Conservative party has been stopping NHS IT security ?
Really, your reasoning is bizarre.
No, I'm simply saying that the Government will be held responsible for major shortcomings in the NHS, which whether true or not these will inevitably be put down to under-funding .... it has simply been forever thus. Don't take my word for it, just wait for the next batch of polls to appear over the next few days and you'll see for yourself.
I just find it amazing that some trusts spent the grand sum of zero, ZERO on cyber security.
But they can find money for transgender toilets
We all have to choose our priorities on where to spend our budget.
Which is odd because normally there are lots of pb-ers still talking about the failed IT project under Labour, yet suddenly NHS IT is of no interest to them.
Its not an IT project though is it but rather basic IT security.
Correct. This is where ransomware has got into hospital PCs through users opening files in emails or bringing in files on USB sticks. It will have spread around local networks when the files are opened. This is down to users not following the procedures they were told to do. It is completely different from an active attack through denial of service or trying to connect in from outside the network. It has happened today because the authors of the ransomware set a timer to trigger all infected PCs today, hence why it is visible worldwide.
This will be a lot wider than the NHS. Other UK organisations, large and small, will be hit by this. Make backups people.
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
You're right of course in the sense that this was a global attack, but that said it smacks of earth-shattering incompetence taking into account the fact that it could have been avoided by the simple use of a Microsoft "patch" which had been readily available for some time. If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
Are you really saying that the Conservative party has been stopping NHS IT security ?
Really, your reasoning is bizarre.
No, I'm simply saying that the Government will be held responsible for major shortcomings in the NHS, which whether true or not these will inevitably be put down to under-funding .... it has simply been forever thus. Don't take my word for it, just wait for the next batch of polls to appear over the next few days and you'll see for yourself.
Also Peter, just think on why some trusts were not affected and others were.........
Also entities all around the world affected.
You might be right that the tories get the blame but it really isn't that simple
Of course a Labour government under the trots will drive the economy onto the rocks and budgets will be even tighter than they are now.
Ive posted on South Belfast twice, suggesting a DUP gain.
I did this in 2105 and got burned as McDonnell held on with one of the lowest winning percentages you could imagine, in fact one of the lowest in parliamentary history. Honestly, some day the arse is going to fall out his vote, you do get the feeling that he is teetering at times and his survival ironically was probably helped by the handful of guilty unionist votes that he has collected consistently over the years.
Paula Bradshaw for Alliance is a strong campaigner but where will she pick up votes from? They would have to be UUP votes, which she has already farmed some (Paula could wear a sash on a good day) or the SDLPs if McDonnell falls off a cliff. How much more can she get? Open question. Her more likely target to steal is McDonnell.
The DUP were beaten out last time by the presence of Bob Stoker of UKIP who's 1900 votes did the damage. Stoker is a long standing ex UUP guy in the area and he carries a decent vote. He is not standing, partially as a nudge to the Unionist parties to get their act together in the constituency. Where his votes go in a tight race is most likely DUP, if they turn out
The DUP should really win this seat and that they don't is part of a long term problem in mobilising the Unionist vote, in particular the working class unionist vote. They have, sadly perhaps, picked former Assembly member Pengelly as candidate. She is not exactly a standout, therefore her ability to mobilise any more than the 2015 tally vote plus some homeless UKIP voters is open to question. That could well be enough though and I have backed that it is.
Yes South Belfast is in many ways diverse with a mix old money, new blow ins with cash, students, people who still think they are students and a more ethnically diverse element. It also holds some large loyalist areas like Taughmonagh (where the head of UDA hangs out), the Village and Belvoir. It is these areas that could close it for the DUP if they turned out but the loyalists have long had a fairly fractious history with the DUP, something that the ignorant from the outside don't quite understand.
On the nationalist side Sinn Fein have been improving and if they perform similarly or slightly above 2015 may fatally hurt McDonnell. They'd be delighted to do so in their war to eliminate the SDLP.
Side note. A number of election counts including Belfast constituencies will be held at the former site of the Maze prison. Should bring back a few memories for some party hacks...
Wasn't the DUP candidate's father an infamous Loyalist figure ?
How expensive in terms of GE seats, whether justified or not is today's cyber attack likely to be for the Tories? To a large extent that will depend on just how quickly the problem is sorted out and that no further problems arise. My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 151-200 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
Do you really think it will swing seats? This is a global attack that has affected every nation, will the government really be blamed by swing voters? One could just as easily suggest it will focus minds on credibility and thus swing seats TO the government. But I doubt it either way, if this is resolved quickly it will be tomorrows fish and chip paper.
You're right of course in the sense that this was a global attack, but that said it smacks of earth-shattering incompetence taking into account the fact that it could have been avoided by the simple use of a Microsoft "patch" which had been readily available for some time. If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
Are you really saying that the Conservative party has been stopping NHS IT security ?
Really, your reasoning is bizarre.
No, I'm simply saying that the Government will be held responsible for major shortcomings in the NHS, which whether true or not these will inevitably be put down to under-funding .... it has simply been forever thus. Don't take my word for it, just wait for the next batch of polls to appear over the next few days and you'll see for yourself.
so the SNP will be similarly punished for the Scottish attacks?
Comments
Exeter students are an interesting bunch. Not so long ago the VC of the University noted its reputation as recruiting from the four corners of Surrey. Demographically they are still very far from the University of Neasden etc.. indeed the only divison in the constituency held by the Tories is the one that contains the University and its Halls.
Windows XP and Server 2003 are no longer supported and there won't be a fix for those operating systems.
https://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/security/ms17-010.aspx
Unfortunately, MS have been idiots with patches in the last year or two, installing advertising and telemetry software as 'critical' meaning a lot of people turned updates off. I've got a busy few days ahead of me, night all!
Bad news for the BBC cameraman run over by #Corbyn - in the interests of impartiality he now must be run over by all candidates.
Those do tend to be in places with low UKIP/CON vote share to begin with though.
Kippers are dead and buried though.
The constituencies and prospective parliamentary candidates are as follows:
East Antrim - Mark Logan
East Belfast - Sheila Bodel
East Londonderry - Liz St Claire-Legge
Lagan Valley - Ian Nickels
North Down - Frank Shivers
Strangford - Claire Hiscott
South Belfast - Clare Salier
Falling foul of the local anti-fracking efforts.
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/863073125323427840
'Proud and patriotic working class people in towns and cities across Britain have not deserted the Labour Party – Jeremy Corbyn has deserted them.
'But across the country today, traditional Labour supporters are increasingly looking at what Jeremy Corbyn believes in and are appalled.'
'Labour voters are appalled because they see a leader who can't lead, a shadow chancellor in John McDonnell who can't be trusted and a Shadow Home Secretary like Diane Abbott who can't add up,' she added.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4499800/PM-makes-bold-pitch-patriotic-working-people.html
Unless this comment could be right ...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2016/aug/15/the-parallels-between-jeremy-corbyn-and-michael-foot-are-almost-all-false
After 38 years of laissez faire economics, it's delivered lower growth and worse inequality than the previous years of government intervention. It doesn't seem a brilliant advert for 'the market will provide'.
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr is not very promising territory for them. There are no Tory Councillors at all on Carmarthenshire Council.
I really don’t think it is probable that the Tories can take Carmarthen East & Dinefwr -- Meeks has been misled by thinking because Carmarthenshire voted Leave that means Carmarthen East & Dinefwr did.
http://www.llanelliherald.com/9824/carmarthenshire-votes-leave-referendum/
0.537655347 Carmarthen East & Dinefwr
0.553661948 Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/863025205408673792
#FakeTweet from Diane Abbott https://twitter.com/HackneyAbbott/status/862950493198458880 …
youth unemployment fell from 19.1% in 2010 to 12.6% in 2016
My Facebook, Twitter and so on are bombarded day after day with the usual suspects pumping out the most ridiculous, hate-filled, f**k the tories nonsense.
I'm pretty certain it a) makes people think the race is a lot closer than it is and b) drives swing voters away from Labour in their droves.
https://twitter.com/Moohten/status/863126339888480256
bullet point four? erm what is that please?
Doesn't appear it has any 'probability' more definite than 'likely' from what I can see from a few - Liverpool Walton is 'likely Labour' and Maindenhead 'Likely conservative'.
I had thought that even his strongest cyber warriors where getting board, but maybe my labour supporting friends have defriended me without me realising, or perhaps the Facebook algorithm is hiding it form me.
I did this in 2105 and got burned as McDonnell held on with one of the lowest winning percentages you could imagine, in fact one of the lowest in parliamentary history. Honestly, some day the arse is going to fall out his vote, you do get the feeling that he is teetering at times and his survival ironically was probably helped by the handful of guilty unionist votes that he has collected consistently over the years.
Paula Bradshaw for Alliance is a strong campaigner but where will she pick up votes from? They would have to be UUP votes, which she has already farmed some (Paula could wear a sash on a good day) or the SDLPs if McDonnell falls off a cliff. How much more can she get? Open question. Her more likely target to steal is McDonnell.
The DUP were beaten out last time by the presence of Bob Stoker of UKIP who's 1900 votes did the damage. Stoker is a long standing ex UUP guy in the area and he carries a decent vote. He is not standing, partially as a nudge to the Unionist parties to get their act together in the constituency. Where his votes go in a tight race is most likely DUP, if they turn out
The DUP should really win this seat and that they don't is part of a long term problem in mobilising the Unionist vote, in particular the working class unionist vote. They have, sadly perhaps, picked former Assembly member Pengelly as candidate. She is not exactly a standout, therefore her ability to mobilise any more than the 2015 tally vote plus some homeless UKIP voters is open to question. That could well be enough though and I have backed that it is.
Yes South Belfast is in many ways diverse with a mix old money, new blow ins with cash, students, people who still think they are students and a more ethnically diverse element. It also holds some large loyalist areas like Taughmonagh (where the head of UDA hangs out), the Village and Belvoir. It is these areas that could close it for the DUP if they turned out but the loyalists have long had a fairly fractious history with the DUP, something that the ignorant from the outside don't quite understand.
On the nationalist side Sinn Fein have been improving and if they perform similarly or slightly above 2015 may fatally hurt McDonnell. They'd be delighted to do so in their war to eliminate the SDLP.
Side note. A number of election counts including Belfast constituencies will be held at the former site of the Maze prison. Should bring back a few memories for some party hacks...
CE & D is the most Remain-friendly and so has to be below 53.7 (just as Llanelli is the most Leave-friendly and has to be above 53.7). Pembrokeshire was 57 % Leave, and so CW & SP must be more Leave-friendly than CE & D.
Hanratty is taking three numbers equal to or above 53.7 (the Leave percentages for Llanelli, CE&D and the Carmarthen parts of CW & SP) and saying their average is 53.7.
These figures are GIGO.
It looks as though Hanratty should be helping Diane Abbott with her sums.
My guess is that it will cost the Tories at least 10-20 seats, even if resolved quickly and fairly painlessly and on that basis the 150 - 199 seat band for Labour at evens now looks attractive, as does, arguably, a buy of total Labour seats spread bet with Sporting at 160 ..... I've taken both bets tonight, but DYOR.
To produce a LibDem/PC marginal, you need to put two Universities in a West Wales constituency. The University towns provide the bulk of the LibDem vote.
I think it will be very close in Ceredigion.
On the other hand, one of the things I'm genuinely surprised at is the correlation between the my friends who are most vocally pro-Corbyn being those who were most vocally anti-Brexit. I had completely assumed they would go Lib Dem and not a single one has.
*Edited. anti-brexit.
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05871
If people are reminded about security dangers who does that help.
If true, then this is very damning for the Tories and could cost them dearly especially in an area, i.e. the NHS, where they are already not fully trusted. Yes, at least 10-20 seats I would say, maybe more. Hope I'm wrong, but my wallet believes I'm right.
It wouldn't surprise me if when Thurrock was priced at 6/1 if UKIP over 0.5 seats was 6/1 or less - and due to market changes UKIP over 0.5 seats has moved out to 8/1 but Thurrock has not yet shifted with it as there's probably very little movement in that market for them.
Really, your reasoning is bizarre.
But... 4,500 UKIP votes up for grabs, and 1,000 Green votes too. Will the LibDems 1,000 votes also be squeezed?
And who rates better on national security, May or Corbyn?
https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/863160636297138176
The attack exploits a vulnerability that was patched in March, and published in April. If you are bang up to date with your patching, you should be OK.
But the NHS systems were not.
One reason might simply be scale.
I have been on a conference call all evening with our global IT leaders, and all of our security vendors discussing this. We have managed anti-virus on all our systems, and the latest updates have signatures for this, so we have been OK, so far.
We also have SCCM patching for our windows machines, but, we don't have them all patched yet. Although the patch was in the March release, we run the patch through QA on our systems before deployment, then it takes 21 days to patch every device around the globe, partly to make sure we don't swamp the bandwidth on any links, and also to stagger the reboot cycles.
The NHS ought to be testing patches before deployment, and then they also have similar scale and timing issues to deal with.
The other issue with healthcare I mentioned earlier is that certain clinical systems can't be patched. The vendor will not support them if you change the platform in any way, as I understand it.
But they can find money for transgender toilets
We all have to choose our priorities on where to spend our budget.
This will be a lot wider than the NHS. Other UK organisations, large and small, will be hit by this. Make backups people.
Also entities all around the world affected.
You might be right that the tories get the blame but it really isn't that simple
Of course a Labour government under the trots will drive the economy onto the rocks and budgets will be even tighter than they are now.
http://www.information-age.com/cyber-security-nhs-123464777/
https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/nhs-cybersecurity-breaches-up/