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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 12 seats to watch
The general election result will be made up of the results of 650 individual battles. Some will be very predictable. Here are twelve seats that will help to determine how the next Parliament will be comprised.
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Put a little on Mr. Price (thought I'd already done so, but must've forgotten).
You must not grant the right to use the software in any application or situation where the software failure could lead to death or serious bodily injury of any person, or to severe physical or environmental damage (“High Risk Use”). Examples of High Risk Use include, but are not limited to: aircraft or other modes of human mass transportation, nuclear or chemical facilities, life support systems, implantable medical equipment, motor vehicles, or weaponry systems
Quite. Their disclaimer seems to cover any section of the NHS that hopes to provide emergency treatment.
Their hacking tools got hacked last month.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/04/14/latest_shadow_brokers_data_dump/
"The Shadow Brokers have leaked more hacking tools stolen from the NSA's Equation Group – this time four-year-old exploits that attempt to hijack venerable Windows systems, from Windows 2000 up to Server 2012 and Windows 7 and 8.
The toolkit puts into anyone's hands – from moronic script kiddies to hardened crims – highly classified nation-state-level weaponry that can potentially compromise and commandeer systems around the world. This is the same powerful toolkit Uncle Sam used once upon a time to hack into and secretly snoop on foreign governments, telcos, banks, and other organizations."
--
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/04/21/windows_hacked_nsa_shadow_brokers/
"The polite term for what's happening is a bloodbath. The impolite version is dumpster fire clown shoes shit show," Tentler said. "I'm hopeful this is the wakeup moment for people over patching Windows machines."
I'm guessing Lewis hangs on. It went Labour quite significantly in 2015, he's high profile without being widely disliked, and the Tory vote is still quite a ways back without massive UKIP votes to squeeze.
Exeter
Normal course of events it seems an obvious CON gain, but I think Alistair calls this one right as well - I don't know what about the local area or his efforts as an MP have led to this, but they seem fans of Labour down there.
Don Valley
I'm betting on the Tories winning, but I don't expect a pay off. The Tories are still a long way back and need almost all the UKIP vote and some switchers (or big Labour vote staying at home). Clearly possible, and I get a payday if it happens, but I'm not hugely confident.
Rochdale
Seems about right - Labour are vulnerable but a long way ahead given the former challengers are so far back now.
Bristol West
If it so Lefty, I cannot see why it would go anything other than Labour, but I guess the Greens are worth a shout - as we've seen in Brighton, people love the progressive cred of having a Green MP, even non Greens.
Hartlepool
Tory win seems a pretty good guess, but I'm banking on the UKIP vote doing just enough to prevent it.
Thurrock
Seems a sound analysis. Tough for UKIP anywhere right now, even with a good 2015 base and a good candidate.
Sheffield Hallam
I'm told Clegg is personally still very popular in the seat, but I think he might be toast. The Tories wont' save him this time.
East Renfrewshire
Good test of the ability and willingness of the scottish unionist to vote tactically I guess, even where the 'most' likely starts from third. If SCON take this, surely a very good night.
I'm betting SNP hold.
Oddly, the wikipedia page for this seat has as its first line 'East Renfrewshire is a highly affluent constituency'. The sort of detail that is usually found lower down in such a page, I would think, not sure why its affluence is so significant it needs to be in the opening line.
Torfaen
Again, seems sound. Great strides made, but just too big a hurdle to leap for the Tories.
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr
I'm instinctively not well inclined to nationalist seats, so it'd be nice to see the Tories take it. Seems like they have a shot.
Belfast South
Who knows with NI?
Yes, this happens, and yes, I've seen people disciplined for it. Not for the personal use of the printer and resources, but for plugging a USB stick into a supposedly secure PC.
The sad thing about this event is that it's probably just a script kiddie. They're the lowest of the low: at least genuine black hat hackers have skill.
It'll be interesting to know nearer the time when we might be getting a rough timetable for the declarations. I'm also interested in Nuneaton (to see exactly how much the likely Con majority increases by,) Mansfield (which is the target furthest down the Conservative list that would move into the Conservative column on a 50% transfer of the 2015 Ukip vote,) and Moray (to see if the Scottish Tory surge has enough strength to knock over Angus Robertson.)
Norwich South - Labour hold; local elections better than fine for the reds here.
Exeter - Labour hold; Bradshaw a good operator, and machine too strong for blues.
Don Valley - Tory gain; UKIP absence vital.
Rochdale - Labour hold; Danczuk to get derisory vote but hefty "resettlement" for technically losing in battle.
Bristol West - Labour hold; slightly perverse electorate, and Greens always huff and puff here but ultimately can't see it.
Hartlepool - comfortable Tory gain.
Thurrock - very comfortable Tory hold.
Sheffield Hallam - Clegg hold; Labour have a fight in Central with Green Bennett and Tories can have all the wet dreams they like, but they still have no councillors in the city.
East Renfrewshire - SNP hold; guessing about Scotland though, to be honest.
Torfaen - Labour hold; close, but bridge too far.
Carmarthen East - Plaid hold; Labour won't be making gains in 2017, and I am not sure where the blues will get the necessary votes from.
Belfast South - SDLP hold; SF will vote tactically, Alliance and DUP won't.
Hallam - Lib Dem Hold
Thurrock - Tory Hold.
Bristol West - Labour Hold
Hartlepool - Con Gain
Rochdale - Lab Hold
Norwich South - Lab Hold
Exeter - Labour Hold
Don Valley - Con Gain
Carmathen East - Con Gain
Torfaen - Con Gain
East Renfrewshire - Con Gain
Belfast South - DUP Gain
Carmarthenshire voted Leave 53.7 to 46.3. It is not contiguous with CE & D.
Carmarthenshire includes the seat of Llanelli, which is demographically similar to Swansea East or Neath, where we know there was a big Leave vote.
My guess is Llanelli voted overwhelming Leave, and CE & D voted Remain.
Plaid increased their Councillors on Carmarthenshire Council. In fact, Plaid did well in rural areas, increasing their councillors in Ynys Mon, Gwynedd, Ceredigion & Carmarthenshire. They didn't do very well in the cities.
This is PC hold.
Good article Mr Meeks, many thanks. I shall be paying a visit to my bookmaker, first thing.
Guess who's back
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/863097581433475073
& London
& 8% in Wales
(address in the Burton
Constituency)
https://twitter.com/danbarker/status/863062356737359872
8/15 is free money.
Page 15 tables. Utterly shocking for Labour. Behind in the North East ffsake !
Scotland was good tho.
I too fancy Alliance for Belfast South. Not from any knowledge of the constituency, I should add. It's leafy and where Queens University is.
Should never have been really Labour for donkey's years from everything I hear about it, Murphy had a heck of a personal vote. That'll unwind to the Tories.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/
"So: what do the first results tell us? The Ashcroft Model currently estimates that the Tories are ahead in between 406 and 415 constituencies, depending on whether turnout matches that of the 2015 election, the 2016 referendum, or voters’ own declared likelihood to turn up on 8 June. This implies an overall Conservative majority of between 162 and 180 seats in the House of Commons – but don’t forget, we are talking about probabilities not predictions: within those figures, 39 seats are categorised as “too close to call” and a further 63 are only “leaning” towards rather than “likely” for one party."
Cyberattacks in 12 Nations Said to Use Leaked N.S.A. Hacking Tool https://nyti.ms/2r8aZJF
Tories 47%
Labour 27%
Lib Dems 12%
UKIP 6%
SNP 40%
Con 20%
Actual reality
SNP 50%
Con 15%
Having said all that my conclusion would be that if national swings are big enough BB won't outperform hugely.. a few pct extra will wash him away too.
Would be meltdown territory if the vote efficiency disintegrates
Ashcroft poll was in the field 2 weeks ago, since which the Labour vote inexplicably seems to have firmed up, at least in polls.
Why does Belgium shine so brightly?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39900940
So, there you go.
At the locals, Plaid Cymru got 18525 votes against Labour’s 16985 votes, and in actual seats Plaid Cymru won 14, Labour 10, Ind 1 in Rhondda constituency.
RCT was Leave, and Bryant voted against his constituents on Article 50.
Bryant has shed votes in every election. No matter whether Labour was doing well or badly, there was always a swing against Bryant.
There'll be another swing against him in a few weeks time.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chuka-umunna-breaks-ranks-with-labour-on-brexit-with-demand-to-stay-in-eu-single-market-a3537461.html
I think I'm going to have a busy summer as an independent IT consultant, this will have given a nudge to a lot of companies to make sure their systems are up to date, and that they have put sufficient resources into understanding and mitigating the risks of such events within their organisations.
Oh, and everyone reading this, be nice to your IT guys - the cost of the occasional pizza sent down to their bunker will be repaid a thousand times over on days like these
This is one of the seats that will probably be benefiting from new enthusiastic activists from Corbyn, in contrast to many other parts of the country. In a ranking of seats by the increase in Labour vote share I would expect to see this seat at or near the top.
Question: How many seats will see an increase in the Labour share of the vote?
Oooooooh is it Mr Jenkins the Janitor?
Apologies if this idea has already come up again and been rejected in my absence.
People ashamed of saying they voted for Torylite clearly.
Lol, they have 2010 Labout vote as 21%! It was 42%.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/britain-has-not-fought-just-war-since-1945-says-jeremy-corbyn/
The Labour leader’s comments were also attacked by Rob Gray, an Army veteran who was jeered for challenging Mr Corbyn over his views on prosecuting veterans in Northern Ireland this week.
Mr Gray said: “The man’s an idiot. Jeremy Corbyn is an insult to friends of mine who died in Northern Ireland because he will not support British troops.
“The man does not care about our war dead, he cares more about the IRA dead, Hezbollah dead.”
Exeter - Labour hold - good MP and good campaign. The article he wrote for Tristan Hunts book on Labour in England was instructive.
Don Valley - Labour hold. Not enough Tories.
Rochdale - Labour but close run thing. Don't think Tony Lloyd being from Manchester will help. Its a bit Royston Vasey up there - local constituency for local people.
Bristol West - Toss up. Maybe Green.
Hartlepool - Labour squeak it.
Thurrock - Tory hold easy
Sheffield Hallam - Clegg hold;
East Renfrewshire - Tory gain ? although I believe the constituency has added a couple of council schemes since the days when it was a Tory stronghold.
Torfaen - Labour hold; Not enough Tories.
Carmarthen East - Plaid hold;
Belfast South - Alliance gain
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/05/election-2017-ashcroft-model/
The information on the constituencies is interesting.
:-)
List, by party: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/numbers/election/parl.2017-06-08/parties
Spreadsheet: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/media/candidates-parl.2017-06-08.csv