Given the Tories are expected to win regardless, while I don't think it will work a big Tory majority is surely the best chance of stopping Hard Brexit, as it means TMay could perform an embarrassing u-turn easier.
Possibly and most of these pro single market Labour MPs are likely to be reelected and will pressure a reelected PM May to move in their direction
Sorry I do not see this Conservatives gain Don Valley meme . they got pasted by Labour last week in the all out council elections . Torfaen was just as bad , the Conservatives could only field candidates in less than half the seats and polled less than 15% of the vote .
On the general subject of crystal ball gazing, would there be any interest amongst PB'ers in running a General Election prediction contest? As a sad geek for number crunching, I might be willing to help to organise such a thing if others lack the time...
Apologies if this idea has already come up again and been rejected in my absence.
We often have contest on NoJam.
Indeed I have a very nice book as a result of my efforts on the London mayoral contest..
Which cartoon characters do May and Corbyn most resemble (based on 2015 Labour voters undecided this time) 'None of this answers the question of what cartoon character Theresa May reminds people of. “Lady Penelope”. Strictly speaking she is a puppet, but OK. “Her from 101 Dalmatians. Cruella de Vil;” “No, that’s Cherie Blair.” The head teacher in Matilda. Miss Trunchbull.” “She was really evil, wasn’t she?” “I think Theresa May might have an evil streak in her. If she loses her temper, trust me, them men are going to know about it.” And Jeremy Corbyn? “Deputy Dog.” “Daffy Duck.” “Andy Capp.” “I know he’s not a cartoon character, but who’s the scarecrow guy? Worzel Gummidge.” “Shaggy, from Scooby-Doo.” “Yes. I do get that Jesus sandal vibe from Jeremy Corbyn, definitely.' http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/lord-ashcroft-in-the-west-midlands-the-heads-of-my-labour-background-focus-group-battle-with-their-hearts.html
Sorry I do not see this Conservatives gain Don Valley meme . they got pasted by Labour last week in the all out council elections . Torfaen was just as bad , the Conservatives could only field candidates in less than half the seats and polled less than 15% of the vote .
Well there is some 4-11 with Betfred on Flint if you fancy it.
Exeter - Labour hold - good MP and good campaign. The article he wrote for Tristan Hunts book on Labour in England was instructive.
Don Valley - Labour hold. Not enough Tories.
Rochdale - Labour but close run thing. Don't think Tony Lloyd being from Manchester will help. Its a bit Royston Vasey up there - local constituency for local people.
Bristol West - Toss up. Maybe Green.
Hartlepool - Labour squeak it.
Thurrock - Tory hold easy
Sheffield Hallam - Clegg hold;
East Renfrewshire - Tory gain ? although I believe the constituency has added a couple of council schemes since the days when it was a Tory stronghold.
Torfaen - Labour hold; Not enough Tories.
Carmarthen East - Plaid hold;
Belfast South - Alliance gain
You seem a lot more buoyant on Labour than most others who've played this game? How many Labour MPs are you forecasting?
On the general subject of crystal ball gazing, would there be any interest amongst PB'ers in running a General Election prediction contest? As a sad geek for number crunching, I might be willing to help to organise such a thing if others lack the time...
Apologies if this idea has already come up again and been rejected in my absence.
We often have contest on NoJam.
Indeed I have a very nice book as a result of my efforts on the London mayoral contest..
On the general subject of crystal ball gazing, would there be any interest amongst PB'ers in running a General Election prediction contest? As a sad geek for number crunching, I might be willing to help to organise such a thing if others lack the time...
Apologies if this idea has already come up again and been rejected in my absence.
We often have contest on NoJam.
Indeed I have a very nice book as a result of my efforts on the London mayoral contest..
Which cartoon characters do May and Corbyn most resemble (based on 2015 Labour voters undecided this time) 'None of this answers the question of what cartoon character Theresa May reminds people of. “Lady Penelope”. Strictly speaking she is a puppet, but OK. “Her from 101 Dalmatians. Cruella de Vil;” “No, that’s Cherie Blair.” The head teacher in Matilda. Miss Trunchbull.” “She was really evil, wasn’t she?” “I think Theresa May might have an evil streak in her. If she loses her temper, trust me, them men are going to know about it.” And Jeremy Corbyn? “Deputy Dog.” “Daffy Duck.” “Andy Capp.” “I know he’s not a cartoon character, but who’s the scarecrow guy? Worzel Gummidge.” “Shaggy, from Scooby-Doo.” “Yes. I do get that Jesus sandal vibe from Jeremy Corbyn, definitely.' http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/lord-ashcroft-in-the-west-midlands-the-heads-of-my-labour-background-focus-group-battle-with-their-hearts.html
PB.com's psephologist of the month, Prof Stephen Fisher has today, via Elections Etc, produced his first forecast of next month's GE result by averaging information from a number of sources, including Betting Markets, Polls, Statistical Forecasting Models, etc. His results are not that surprising as regards seat wins as follows:
Unfortunately the above numbers lose a certain degree of credibility in not totalling the correct number of 650 seats which are being contested. A fairly basic error one would have thought!
Unfortunately the above numbers lose a certain degree of credibility in not totalling the number of 650 seats which are being contested. A fairly basic error one would have thought!
Standards are clearly really slipping at Oxford....
PB.com's psephologist of the month, Prof Stephen Fisher has today, via Elections Etc, produced his first forecast of next month's GE result by averaging information from a number of sources, including Betting Markets, Polls, Statistical Forecasting Models, etc. His results are not that surprising as regards seat wins as follows:
Unfortunately the above numbers lose a certain degree of credibility in not totalling the number of 650 seats which are being contested. A fairly basic error one would have thought!
It's in the ballpark.
This should sum through to 649 though, unless you're predicting a shock in Buckingham !
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Page 15 tables. Utterly shocking for Labour. Behind in the North East ffsake !
SNP at 36% too if I'm reading it right. vs Blues 27%.
Not excluding don't knows etc.
thanks. but if Blues can get 75% of SNP that's impressive.
Which party did you vote for in the general election in May 2015?
SNP 40% Con 20%
Actual reality
SNP 50% Con 15%
Indeed - and it implies that the Tories were second in Scotland in 2015 when they were actually 9% behind Labour. Similar problems in the London and Walses crossbreaks given.
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Lots of voting evidence for the LDs making sweeping gains and the Tories going backwards in Cornwall, wasn't there? Fair play coming up with predictions and evidence for why you believe them, but the smallest hint of humility might be a good idea when acting like anyone who could possibly believe the Tories will do very well from UKIP votes is being silly. Maybe you're right - I don't think the Tories will get a 100+ landslide - but clearly we all make mistakes.
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Rather than picking out a few examples which may or may not follow your narrative, it would be interesting to plot decrease in UKIP vote vs increase in Tory vote for each council. Do you have those numbers, or could you point me to those numbers?
The EnternalBlue exploit being used in this cyber attack was patched by Microsoft in March. Being this far behind in patch deployment or running Server 2003 / XP simply isn't acceptable practice.
Serious questions need to be asked at NHS etc
(I'm a information security professional by trade)
I guess I can say something useful about Exeter having stood there against Ben years ago. The Labour machine there is formidable - far outstripping the Tories who are a bit of a shower to be honest. I wouldn't attach too much significance to the Bradshaw personal vote, like nearly everywhere else half the voters do not know or care who their MP is, they vote for the party they see on TV, and like most of provincial England there is very little of the champagne socialist and revolutionary contingent to find JC anything other than radioactive. There will be a flood of pro-hunting activists for the Tories, nothing else for them to do anywhere nearby as the LibDems are busted in Brexitland. My experience of them is that they are exactly the kind of people that anti-hunting fanatics (of which Ben is one) say they are and are best left to deliver leaflets and god forbid they actually talk to anyone. A sighter might be that Labour retained all their seats last week, but the additional GE voters in Exeter probably lean May far more than Corbyn.
Having said all that my conclusion would be that if national swings are big enough BB won't outperform hugely.. a few pct extra will wash him away too.
Why is Exeter so much less Tory these days? After regaining the seat from Gwynneth Dunwoody in 1970 John Hannam had little trouble holding the seat until retiring in 1997. Boundary changes?
Which cartoon characters do May and Corbyn most resemble (based on 2015 Labour voters undecided this time) 'None of this answers the question of what cartoon character Theresa May reminds people of. “Lady Penelope”. Strictly speaking she is a puppet, but OK. “Her from 101 Dalmatians. Cruella de Vil;” “No, that’s Cherie Blair.” The head teacher in Matilda. Miss Trunchbull.” “She was really evil, wasn’t she?” “I think Theresa May might have an evil streak in her. If she loses her temper, trust me, them men are going to know about it.” And Jeremy Corbyn? “Deputy Dog.” “Daffy Duck.” “Andy Capp.” “I know he’s not a cartoon character, but who’s the scarecrow guy? Worzel Gummidge.” “Shaggy, from Scooby-Doo.” “Yes. I do get that Jesus sandal vibe from Jeremy Corbyn, definitely.' http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/lord-ashcroft-in-the-west-midlands-the-heads-of-my-labour-background-focus-group-battle-with-their-hearts.html
On the general subject of crystal ball gazing, would there be any interest amongst PB'ers in running a General Election prediction contest? As a sad geek for number crunching, I might be willing to help to organise such a thing if others lack the time...
Apologies if this idea has already come up again and been rejected in my absence.
We often have contest on NoJam.
Indeed I have a very nice book as a result of my efforts on the London mayoral contest..
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Rather than picking out a few examples which may or may not follow your narrative, it would be interesting to plot decrease in UKIP vote vs increase in Tory vote for each council. Do you have those numbers, or could you point me to those numbers?
Yes I have the numbers and will give them for any county you ask for . Pick one or two . Clearly counties with a substantial Independent vote in the locals will not be so meaningful .Cornwall for example will show the Conservative vote falling despite a substantial fall in the UKIP vote . If you want all my results then DYOR
CE & D -- where is the evidence that this seat voted Leave?
Carmarthenshire voted Leave 53.7 to 46.3. It is not contiguous with CE & D.
Carmarthenshire includes the seat of Llanelli, which is demographically similar to Swansea East or Neath, where we know there was a big Leave vote.
My guess is Llanelli voted overwhelming Leave, and CE & D voted Remain.
Plaid increased their Councillors on Carmarthenshire Council. In fact, Plaid did well in rural areas, increasing their councillors in Ynys Mon, Gwynedd, Ceredigion & Carmarthenshire. They didn't do very well in the cities.
This is PC hold.
Rural Carmarthenshire, like Ceredigion to its north, just doesn't vote Tory. I think there is a case to be made that the core reason is not socio-economic make-up nor language, but religion: these areas are the traditional core of Welsh Non-conformism, and still remember that the Church of England was once characterised as the Tory Party at prayer.
The Tory vote in both Carmathenshire and Cardiganshire increased dramatically in 1979 and the Tories came close to winning both seats in the 1980s.
I guess I can say something useful about Exeter having stood there against Ben years ago. The Labour machine there is formidable - far outstripping the Tories who are a bit of a shower to be honest. I wouldn't attach too much significance to the Bradshaw personal vote, like nearly everywhere else half the voters do not know or care who their MP is, they vote for the party they see on TV, and like most of provincial England there is very little of the champagne socialist and revolutionary contingent to find JC anything other than radioactive. There will be a flood of pro-hunting activists for the Tories, nothing else for them to do anywhere nearby as the LibDems are busted in Brexitland. My experience of them is that they are exactly the kind of people that anti-hunting fanatics (of which Ben is one) say they are and are best left to deliver leaflets and god forbid they actually talk to anyone. A sighter might be that Labour retained all their seats last week, but the additional GE voters in Exeter probably lean May far more than Corbyn.
Having said all that my conclusion would be that if national swings are big enough BB won't outperform hugely.. a few pct extra will wash him away too.
Why is Exeter so much less Tory these days? After regaining the seat from Gwynneth Dunwoody in 1970 John Hannam had little trouble holding the seat until retiring in 1997. Boundary changes?
That's part of it.. the port town of Topsham was chopped off in 2010 thanks to a bit of Labour lobbymandering. The original boundary proposal would have split the city in two to absorb some of its satellite areas.. most likely result in the long term would have been two LD/Con marginals.
You also have a massive expansion of the university and other smartification from the Met Office etc all of which is bad for the Tories.
Which cartoon characters do May and Corbyn most resemble (based on 2015 Labour voters undecided this time) 'None of this answers the question of what cartoon character Theresa May reminds people of. “Lady Penelope”. Strictly speaking she is a puppet, but OK. “Her from 101 Dalmatians. Cruella de Vil;” “No, that’s Cherie Blair.” The head teacher in Matilda. Miss Trunchbull.” “She was really evil, wasn’t she?” “I think Theresa May might have an evil streak in her. If she loses her temper, trust me, them men are going to know about it.” And Jeremy Corbyn? “Deputy Dog.” “Daffy Duck.” “Andy Capp.” “I know he’s not a cartoon character, but who’s the scarecrow guy? Worzel Gummidge.” “Shaggy, from Scooby-Doo.” “Yes. I do get that Jesus sandal vibe from Jeremy Corbyn, definitely.' http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/lord-ashcroft-in-the-west-midlands-the-heads-of-my-labour-background-focus-group-battle-with-their-hearts.html
Exeter - Labour hold - good MP and good campaign. The article he wrote for Tristan Hunts book on Labour in England was instructive.
Don Valley - Labour hold. Not enough Tories.
Rochdale - Labour but close run thing. Don't think Tony Lloyd being from Manchester will help. Its a bit Royston Vasey up there - local constituency for local people.
Bristol West - Toss up. Maybe Green.
Hartlepool - Labour squeak it.
Thurrock - Tory hold easy
Sheffield Hallam - Clegg hold;
East Renfrewshire - Tory gain ? although I believe the constituency has added a couple of council schemes since the days when it was a Tory stronghold.
Torfaen - Labour hold; Not enough Tories.
Carmarthen East - Plaid hold;
Belfast South - Alliance gain
You seem a lot more buoyant on Labour than most others who've played this game? How many Labour MPs are you forecasting?
180-190
Don't think that the lab->UKIP->Tory swing is going to play out in urban Labour heartlands. Too much anti Tory history for too many people. UKIP voters on sink estates won't vote Tory in great numbers imho.
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Which cartoon characters do May and Corbyn most resemble (based on 2015 Labour voters undecided this time) 'None of this answers the question of what cartoon character Theresa May reminds people of. “Lady Penelope”. Strictly speaking she is a puppet, but OK. “Her from 101 Dalmatians. Cruella de Vil;” “No, that’s Cherie Blair.” The head teacher in Matilda. Miss Trunchbull.” “She was really evil, wasn’t she?” “I think Theresa May might have an evil streak in her. If she loses her temper, trust me, them men are going to know about it.” And Jeremy Corbyn? “Deputy Dog.” “Daffy Duck.” “Andy Capp.” “I know he’s not a cartoon character, but who’s the scarecrow guy? Worzel Gummidge.” “Shaggy, from Scooby-Doo.” “Yes. I do get that Jesus sandal vibe from Jeremy Corbyn, definitely.' http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/lord-ashcroft-in-the-west-midlands-the-heads-of-my-labour-background-focus-group-battle-with-their-hearts.html
Was Mr Pastry ever turned into a cartoon?
I presume a reference to Corbyn
Just seen the Corbyn piece on the C4 news. Jezza comes across very well, much more normal than May. He seems to be planning to keep his allotment while in Downing St. A bit of quiet time is good for thinking it seems...
The Bristol Post's website, added details on all candidates today .
Re Bristol West - 2015, Labour appeared to have more sophisticated data re ward composition by household. Canvassing team with the MP had tablet/electronic data recording/analysis to gather data. Hadn't ever seen Labour canvass the road before in 13 years. Labour made gains on Council at local elections. Private Eye readers might recall a piece in Rotten Boroughs re Labour's Deputy Mayor owed £5k Council Tax.
Tory canvassed the road, on her own, without a team in support, subsequent tweets showed she was spending more time helping out in Kingswood.
Greens canvasser ex LD, ex Lab, earnest amateurs in comparision to Labour. No attempt to target voters other than students Catch all green/left programme. Plenty of stunts, tricycle rickshaw, but helped by Bristol being EU Green Capital that year, and tacit encouragement by then Mayor. They lost about half their councillors in 2015.
Am puzzled by Greens, this time Scott Cato appears to be economically left of Hall who fought in 2015, she could almost be a shoe in for Corbyn's Labour. I would place her as left of Corbyn on many issues. Some Greens were publicly called out for trying to join Labour to vote for Corbyn. Given Debonnaire's antipathy to Corbyn, it is possible that Momentum members might do little to help her.
LDs lost a large number of Councillors since 2010 to Greens and Labour. Have put up Stephen Williams again, but I do wonder if they have lost members and activists. It is possible he might pick up disenchanted Labour or Green votes. He appeared to do reasonably well in Metro Mayoral election.
Tories a very long shot, candidate is from North Somerset, comparatively late nomination last weekend. Perhaps more effort is going to be made to take Bristol East and South. Will be watching to see how much effort is made this time round.
Labour have advantage of most seats on the Council, and hold post of Elected Mayor. I think that their canvassing efforts are more carefully targeted and electronic. Had phone call from Labour re voting during Mayoral Election when Rees won. Greens still in age of clipboards. Question is has Debonnaire lost support of Corbynite left. Greens appear to be tacking to her left, but are still using clipboards. Largish numbers of Greens are supposed to be descending on Bristol this weekend.
Labour ought to hold, but it isn't going to be easy to call.
Exeter - Labour hold - good MP and good campaign. The article he wrote for Tristan Hunts book on Labour in England was instructive.
Don Valley - Labour hold. Not enough Tories.
Rochdale - Labour but close run thing. Don't think Tony Lloyd being from Manchester will help. Its a bit Royston Vasey up there - local constituency for local people.
Bristol West - Toss up. Maybe Green.
Hartlepool - Labour squeak it.
Thurrock - Tory hold easy
Sheffield Hallam - Clegg hold;
East Renfrewshire - Tory gain ? although I believe the constituency has added a couple of council schemes since the days when it was a Tory stronghold.
Torfaen - Labour hold; Not enough Tories.
Carmarthen East - Plaid hold;
Belfast South - Alliance gain
You seem a lot more buoyant on Labour than most others who've played this game? How many Labour MPs are you forecasting?
180-190
Don't think that the lab->UKIP->Tory swing is going to play out in urban Labour heartlands. Too much anti Tory history for too many people. UKIP voters on sink estates won't vote Tory in great numbers imho.
Yes it's very possible that the death of UKIP will assist Labour by voters "going home" back to Labour.
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Why are you comparing GE to Local Council? They're not the same thing!
Why not compare Local Council 2013 to Local Council 2017? That's a like-for-like comparison.
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Of course this Foxy was campaigning for LDs in Leics!
We should be cautios reading from LE elections with 30% turnout to GE at 65%. Clearly a lot of people only vote at GE. Do you have figures for the 2013 Locals to compare?
Which cartoon characters do May and Corbyn most resemble (based on 2015 Labour voters undecided this time) 'None of this answers the question of what cartoon character Theresa May reminds people of. “Lady Penelope”. Strictly speaking she is a puppet, but OK. “Her from 101 Dalmatians. Cruella de Vil;” “No, that’s Cherie Blair.” The head teacher in Matilda. Miss Trunchbull.” “She was really evil, wasn’t she?” “I think Theresa May might have an evil streak in her. If she loses her temper, trust me, them men are going to know about it.” And Jeremy Corbyn? “Deputy Dog.” “Daffy Duck.” “Andy Capp.” “I know he’s not a cartoon character, but who’s the scarecrow guy? Worzel Gummidge.” “Shaggy, from Scooby-Doo.” “Yes. I do get that Jesus sandal vibe from Jeremy Corbyn, definitely.' http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/lord-ashcroft-in-the-west-midlands-the-heads-of-my-labour-background-focus-group-battle-with-their-hearts.html
Was Mr Pastry ever turned into a cartoon?
I presume a reference to Corbyn
Just seen the Corbyn piece on the C4 news. Jezza comes across very well, much more normal than May. He seems to be planning to keep his allotment while in Downing St. A bit of quiet time is good for thinking it seems...
Perhaps he realises that if McDonnell's plans are implemented he'll need to grow his own food.
CE & D -- where is the evidence that this seat voted Leave?
Carmarthenshire voted Leave 53.7 to 46.3. It is not contiguous with CE & D.
Carmarthenshire includes the seat of Llanelli, which is demographically similar to Swansea East or Neath, where we know there was a big Leave vote.
My guess is Llanelli voted overwhelming Leave, and CE & D voted Remain.
Plaid increased their Councillors on Carmarthenshire Council. In fact, Plaid did well in rural areas, increasing their councillors in Ynys Mon, Gwynedd, Ceredigion & Carmarthenshire. They didn't do very well in the cities.
This is PC hold.
Rural Carmarthenshire, like Ceredigion to its north, just doesn't vote Tory. I think there is a case to be made that the core reason is not socio-economic make-up nor language, but religion: these areas are the traditional core of Welsh Non-conformism, and still remember that the Church of England was once characterised as the Tory Party at prayer.
The Tory vote in both Carmathenshire and Cardiganshire increased dramatically in 1979 and the Tories came close to winning both seats in the 1980s.
The Lib Dems have already said the Tories cannot win here so thats it!
PB.com's psephologist of the month, Prof Stephen Fisher has today, via Elections Etc, produced his first forecast of next month's GE result by averaging information from a number of sources, including Betting Markets, Polls, Statistical Forecasting Models, etc. His results are not that surprising as regards seat wins as follows:
Unfortunately the above numbers lose a certain degree of credibility in not totalling the number of 650 seats which are being contested. A fairly basic error one would have thought!
It's in the ballpark.
This should sum through to 649 though, unless you're predicting a shock in Buckingham !
I believe the spread-betting firms are counting Buckingham as if it were a Tory win.
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Why are you comparing GE to Local Council? They're not the same thing!
Why not compare Local Council 2013 to Local Council 2017? That's a like-for-like comparison.
Because I am measuring movement from UKIP to Conservative from the GE . In the 2013 locals the UKIP vote was higher than in the 2015 GE so it is pointless to measure the former from the latter . Any more silly queations ?
Exeter - Labour hold - good MP and good campaign. The article he wrote for Tristan Hunts book on Labour in England was instructive.
Don Valley - Labour hold. Not enough Tories.
Rochdale - Labour but close run thing. Don't think Tony Lloyd being from Manchester will help. Its a bit Royston Vasey up there - local constituency for local people.
Bristol West - Toss up. Maybe Green.
Hartlepool - Labour squeak it.
Thurrock - Tory hold easy
Sheffield Hallam - Clegg hold;
East Renfrewshire - Tory gain ? although I believe the constituency has added a couple of council schemes since the days when it was a Tory stronghold.
Torfaen - Labour hold; Not enough Tories.
Carmarthen East - Plaid hold;
Belfast South - Alliance gain
You seem a lot more buoyant on Labour than most others who've played this game? How many Labour MPs are you forecasting?
180-190
Don't think that the lab->UKIP->Tory swing is going to play out in urban Labour heartlands. Too much anti Tory history for too many people. UKIP voters on sink estates won't vote Tory in great numbers imho.
I am a little more cautious, but not too far away at 175.
Which cartoon characters do May and Corbyn most resemble (based on 2015 Labour voters undecided this time) 'None of this answers the question of what cartoon character Theresa May reminds people of. “Lady Penelope”. Strictly speaking she is a puppet, but OK. “Her from 101 Dalmatians. Cruella de Vil;” “No, that’s Cherie Blair.” The head teacher in Matilda. Miss Trunchbull.” “She was really evil, wasn’t she?” “I think Theresa May might have an evil streak in her. If she loses her temper, trust me, them men are going to know about it.” And Jeremy Corbyn? “Deputy Dog.” “Daffy Duck.” “Andy Capp.” “I know he’s not a cartoon character, but who’s the scarecrow guy? Worzel Gummidge.” “Shaggy, from Scooby-Doo.” “Yes. I do get that Jesus sandal vibe from Jeremy Corbyn, definitely.' http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/lord-ashcroft-in-the-west-midlands-the-heads-of-my-labour-background-focus-group-battle-with-their-hearts.html
Was Mr Pastry ever turned into a cartoon?
I presume a reference to Corbyn
Just seen the Corbyn piece on the C4 news. Jezza comes across very well, much more normal than May. He seems to be planning to keep his allotment while in Downing St. A bit of quiet time is good for thinking it seems...
Perhaps he realises that if McDonnell's plans are implemented he'll need to grow his own food.
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Why are you comparing GE to Local Council? They're not the same thing!
Why not compare Local Council 2013 to Local Council 2017? That's a like-for-like comparison.
Because I am measuring movement from UKIP to Conservative from the GE . In the 2013 locals the UKIP vote was higher than in the 2015 GE so it is pointless to measure the former from the latter . Any more silly queations ?
A UKIP voter who stays at home moves equally to all parties.
I guess I can say something useful about Exeter having stood there against Ben years ago. The Labour machine there is formidable - far outstripping the Tories who are a bit of a shower to be honest. I wouldn't attach too much significance to the Bradshaw personal vote, like nearly everywhere else half the voters do not know or care who their MP is, they vote for the party they see on TV, and like most of provincial England there is very little of the champagne socialist and revolutionary contingent to find JC anything other than radioactive. There will be a flood of pro-hunting activists for the Tories, nothing else for them to do anywhere nearby as the LibDems are busted in Brexitland. My experience of them is that they are exactly the kind of people that anti-hunting fanatics (of which Ben is one) say they are and are best left to deliver leaflets and god forbid they actually talk to anyone. A sighter might be that Labour retained all their seats last week, but the additional GE voters in Exeter probably lean May far more than Corbyn.
Having said all that my conclusion would be that if national swings are big enough BB won't outperform hugely.. a few pct extra will wash him away too.
Why is Exeter so much less Tory these days? After regaining the seat from Gwynneth Dunwoody in 1970 John Hannam had little trouble holding the seat until retiring in 1997. Boundary changes?
I have a vague memory that a lot of civil service types have been relocated there - MetOffice maybe? Plus some BBC plus some others. It's quite an atypical breakdown
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Why are you comparing GE to Local Council? They're not the same thing!
Why not compare Local Council 2013 to Local Council 2017? That's a like-for-like comparison.
Because I am measuring movement from UKIP to Conservative from the GE . In the 2013 locals the UKIP vote was higher than in the 2015 GE so it is pointless to measure the former from the latter . Any more silly queations ?
A UKIP voter who stays at home moves equally to all parties.
The Bristol Post's website, added details on all candidates today .
Re Bristol West - 2015, Labour appeared to have more sophisticated data re ward composition by household. Canvassing team with the MP had tablet/electronic data recording/analysis to gather data. Hadn't ever seen Labour canvass the road before in 13 years. Labour made gains on Council at local elections. Private Eye readers might recall a piece in Rotten Boroughs re Labour's Deputy Mayor owed £5k Council Tax.
Tory canvassed the road, on her own, without a team in support, subsequent tweets showed she was spending more time helping out in Kingswood.
Greens canvasser ex LD, ex Lab, earnest amateurs in comparision to Labour. No attempt to target voters other than students Catch all green/left programme. Plenty of stunts, tricycle rickshaw, but helped by Bristol being EU Green Capital that year, and tacit encouragement by then Mayor. They lost about half their councillors in 2015.
Am puzzled by Greens, this time Scott Cato appears to be economically left of Hall who fought in 2015, she could almost be a shoe in for Corbyn's Labour. I would place her as left of Corbyn on many issues. Some Greens were publicly called out for trying to join Labour to vote for Corbyn. Given Debonnaire's antipathy to Corbyn, it is possible that Momentum members might do little to help her.
LDs lost a large number of Councillors since 2010 to Greens and Labour. Have put up Stephen Williams again, but I do wonder if they have lost members and activists. It is possible he might pick up disenchanted Labour or Green votes. He appeared to do reasonably well in Metro Mayoral election.
Tories a very long shot, candidate is from North Somerset, comparatively late nomination last weekend. Perhaps more effort is going to be made to take Bristol East and South. Will be watching to see how much effort is made this time round.
Labour have advantage of most seats on the Council, and hold post of Elected Mayor. I think that their canvassing efforts are more carefully targeted and electronic. Had phone call from Labour re voting during Mayoral Election when Rees won. Greens still in age of clipboards. Question is has Debonnaire lost support of Corbynite left. Greens appear to be tacking to her left, but are still using clipboards. Largish numbers of Greens are supposed to be descending on Bristol this weekend.
Labour ought to hold, but it isn't going to be easy to call.
Have a read of Molly Scott Cato's musings from days gone by. If I were her opponent I'd be making sure as many voters as possible did (especially men)!
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Why are you comparing GE to Local Council? They're not the same thing!
Why not compare Local Council 2013 to Local Council 2017? That's a like-for-like comparison.
Because I am measuring movement from UKIP to Conservative from the GE . In the 2013 locals the UKIP vote was higher than in the 2015 GE so it is pointless to measure the former from the latter . Any more silly queations ?
From the 2013 Locals presumably the move UKIP to Con was even smaller then? it doesnt undermine your point.
I guess I can say something useful about Exeter having stood there against Ben years ago. The Labour machine there is formidable - far outstripping the Tories who are a bit of a shower to be honest. I wouldn't attach too much significance to the Bradshaw personal vote, like nearly everywhere else half the voters do not know or care who their MP is, they vote for the party they see on TV, and like most of provincial England there is very little of the champagne socialist and revolutionary contingent to find JC anything other than radioactive. There will be a flood of pro-hunting activists for the Tories, nothing else for them to do anywhere nearby as the LibDems are busted in Brexitland. My experience of them is that they are exactly the kind of people that anti-hunting fanatics (of which Ben is one) say they are and are best left to deliver leaflets and god forbid they actually talk to anyone. A sighter might be that Labour retained all their seats last week, but the additional GE voters in Exeter probably lean May far more than Corbyn.
Having said all that my conclusion would be that if national swings are big enough BB won't outperform hugely.. a few pct extra will wash him away too.
The thing that should be remembered about Exeter is that the sizeable student vote will likely be diminished by the timing in June rather than May. We haven't had a June Election since 2001 so that may benefit the Tories.
The Tory candidate went backwards in Cardiff West in 2015.
The Libdem vote collapsed in 2015 from 10000 to 2000 so there might be a recovery in that particularly remain voters.
The Ukip Vote was 5000 in 2015 and no candidate this time
I think this will be too close to call but would roughly estimate
Green Joe Levy 3500 Labour Ben Bradshaw 21500 Conservative James Taghdissian 22500 Liberal Democrat Vanessa Newcombe 4000 Independent Jonathan West ? Independent Jonathan Bishop ?
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Using the examples you chose, like for like comparison:
Norfolk 2013 LE share was Con 32.6 UKIP 23.5 Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 17.5% to take them to 50.1% Nearly their vote share was 48.8%
Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 35.5% UKIP 25.8% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 16.4% to take them to 51.9% Nearly their vote share was 50.5%
Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 39.5% UKIP 13.4% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 7.6% to take them to 47.1% Yes their vote share was 50.7%
Norfolk short by 1.3% Kent short by 1.4% Leics over by 3.6%
So considerably over in Leics and 'margin of error' close in Norfolk and Kent.
I guess I can say something useful about Exeter having stood there against Ben years ago. The Labour machine there is formidable - far outstripping the Tories who are a bit of a shower to be honest. I wouldn't attach too much significance to the Bradshaw personal vote, like nearly everywhere else half the voters do not know or care who their MP is, they vote for the party they see on TV, and like most of provincial England there is very little of the champagne socialist and revolutionary contingent to find JC anything other than radioactive. There will be a flood of pro-hunting activists for the Tories, nothing else for them to do anywhere nearby as the LibDems are busted in Brexitland. My experience of them is that they are exactly the kind of people that anti-hunting fanatics (of which Ben is one) say they are and are best left to deliver leaflets and god forbid they actually talk to anyone. A sighter might be that Labour retained all their seats last week, but the additional GE voters in Exeter probably lean May far more than Corbyn.
Having said all that my conclusion would be that if national swings are big enough BB won't outperform hugely.. a few pct extra will wash him away too.
Why is Exeter so much less Tory these days? After regaining the seat from Gwynneth Dunwoody in 1970 John Hannam had little trouble holding the seat until retiring in 1997. Boundary changes?
I have a vague memory that a lot of civil service types have been relocated there - MetOffice maybe? Plus some BBC plus some others. It's quite an atypical breakdown
The boundaries in Exeter are perfect for Lab. The seat is the city council area minus 2 Tory wards. If the electorate keeps growing then the boundaries will get less optimal as a Lab ward will likely be removed next.
This is what we are now up against. It's targeted and very nasty, and it's becoming popular because organisations aren't properly prepared to deal with it and so just pay the ransom to the criminals. https://youtube.com/watch?v=4gR562GW7TI
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Rather than picking out a few examples which may or may not follow your narrative, it would be interesting to plot decrease in UKIP vote vs increase in Tory vote for each council. Do you have those numbers, or could you point me to those numbers?
Yes I have the numbers and will give them for any county you ask for . Pick one or two . Clearly counties with a substantial Independent vote in the locals will not be so meaningful .Cornwall for example will show the Conservative vote falling despite a substantial fall in the UKIP vote . If you want all my results then DYOR
Here is the plot for all but a handful of Councils (excl Cornwall, Doncaster, Lancashire, North Yorkshire, Northamptonshire):
@JonWC Molly Scott Cato had been on Radio 4 in mid February making noises of approval for a farm policy with subsidies for farmers and VAT on meat products.
Had first leaflet of the campaign today from the Cons "Theresa May - a strong voice for Maidenhead". All local priorities and strangely no mention of being PM.
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Why are you comparing GE to Local Council? They're not the same thing!
Why not compare Local Council 2013 to Local Council 2017? That's a like-for-like comparison.
Because I am measuring movement from UKIP to Conservative from the GE . In the 2013 locals the UKIP vote was higher than in the 2015 GE so it is pointless to measure the former from the latter . Any more silly queations ?
From the 2013 Locals presumably the move UKIP to Con was even smaller then? it doesnt undermine your point.
I think local elections are a great way to measure UKIP support in a GE. All those local councils will be having great fun negotiating Brexit over the next two years.
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Why are you comparing GE to Local Council? They're not the same thing!
Why not compare Local Council 2013 to Local Council 2017? That's a like-for-like comparison.
Because I am measuring movement from UKIP to Conservative from the GE . In the 2013 locals the UKIP vote was higher than in the 2015 GE so it is pointless to measure the former from the latter . Any more silly queations ?
Except that GE and LE voting isn't comparable as people vote differently in LE and GE elections. Yes the UKIP vote was higher in 2013 but the Conservative vote was lower - as it regularly is in Local Elections which is why when we run a like for like comparison it has completely different results to your absurd comparison.
Its almost as if General Elections and Local Elections aren't comparable. Oh wait, they're not.
Had first leaflet of the campaign today from the Cons "Theresa May - a strong voice for Maidenhead". All local priorities and strangely no mention of being PM.
Local/national campaign issues (in terms of expenses)?
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Using the examples you chose, like for like comparison:
Norfolk 2013 LE share was Con 32.6 UKIP 23.5 Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 17.5% to take them to 50.1% Nearly their vote share was 48.8%
Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 35.5% UKIP 25.8% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 16.4% to take them to 51.9% Nearly their vote share was 50.5%
Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 39.5% UKIP 13.4% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 7.6% to take them to 47.1% Yes their vote share was 50.7%
Norfolk short by 1.3% Kent short by 1.4% Leics over by 3.6%
So considerably over in Leics and 'margin of error' close in Norfolk and Kent.
Lol Mark was comparing 2015 GE and 2017 LE results o_O !?
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Using the examples you chose, like for like comparison:
Norfolk 2013 LE share was Con 32.6 UKIP 23.5 Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 17.5% to take them to 50.1% Nearly their vote share was 48.8%
Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 35.5% UKIP 25.8% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 16.4% to take them to 51.9% Nearly their vote share was 50.5%
Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 39.5% UKIP 13.4% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 7.6% to take them to 47.1% Yes their vote share was 50.7%
Norfolk short by 1.3% Kent short by 1.4% Leics over by 3.6%
So considerably over in Leics and 'margin of error' close in Norfolk and Kent.
Lol Mark was comparing 2015 GE and 2017 LE results o_O !?
Yes, an interesting choice. My chart was comparing 2013 locals to 2017 locals (i.e. apples and apples).
Exeter - Labour hold - good MP and good campaign. The article he wrote for Tristan Hunts book on Labour in England was instructive.
Don Valley - Labour hold. Not enough Tories.
Rochdale - Labour but close run thing. Don't think Tony Lloyd being from Manchester will help. Its a bit Royston Vasey up there - local constituency for local people.
Bristol West - Toss up. Maybe Green.
Hartlepool - Labour squeak it.
Thurrock - Tory hold easy
Sheffield Hallam - Clegg hold;
East Renfrewshire - Tory gain ? although I believe the constituency has added a couple of council schemes since the days when it was a Tory stronghold.
Torfaen - Labour hold; Not enough Tories.
Carmarthen East - Plaid hold;
Belfast South - Alliance gain
You seem a lot more buoyant on Labour than most others who've played this game? How many Labour MPs are you forecasting?
180-190
Don't think that the lab->UKIP->Tory swing is going to play out in urban Labour heartlands. Too much anti Tory history for too many people. UKIP voters on sink estates won't vote Tory in great numbers imho.
I am a little more cautious, but not too far away at 175.
I see Fisher is in the same ballpark.
I'm really not sure and have not placed a serious bet on this election yet, but if you guys are right, Labour are a buy at 160 on the spreads.
For a while now I've been suspecting that Labour are oversold generally, and could be tempted in at current prices. Maybe. Still not sure.
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Using the examples you chose, like for like comparison:
Norfolk 2013 LE share was Con 32.6 UKIP 23.5 Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 17.5% to take them to 50.1% Nearly their vote share was 48.8%
Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 35.5% UKIP 25.8% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 16.4% to take them to 51.9% Nearly their vote share was 50.5%
Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 39.5% UKIP 13.4% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 7.6% to take them to 47.1% Yes their vote share was 50.7%
Norfolk short by 1.3% Kent short by 1.4% Leics over by 3.6%
So considerably over in Leics and 'margin of error' close in Norfolk and Kent.
False logic i am afraid as say for Norfolk UKIP in 2015 polled 17.0% therefore in the GE the Conservatives should have got only 39.1%
Had first leaflet of the campaign today from the Cons "Theresa May - a strong voice for Maidenhead". All local priorities and strangely no mention of being PM.
So she didn't bother having a photo taken of herself standing next to herself?
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Using the examples you chose, like for like comparison:
Norfolk 2013 LE share was Con 32.6 UKIP 23.5 Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 17.5% to take them to 50.1% Nearly their vote share was 48.8%
Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 35.5% UKIP 25.8% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 16.4% to take them to 51.9% Nearly their vote share was 50.5%
Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 39.5% UKIP 13.4% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 7.6% to take them to 47.1% Yes their vote share was 50.7%
Norfolk short by 1.3% Kent short by 1.4% Leics over by 3.6%
So considerably over in Leics and 'margin of error' close in Norfolk and Kent.
Lol Mark was comparing 2015 GE and 2017 LE results o_O !?
Indeed, using Mark's own chosen examples it seems that the change in UKIP share is actually a very good approximation for the change in Tory share on a like-for-like comparison.
Exeter - Labour hold - good MP and good campaign. The article he wrote for Tristan Hunts book on Labour in England was instructive.
Don Valley - Labour hold. Not enough Tories.
Rochdale - Labour but close run thing. Don't think Tony Lloyd being from Manchester will help. Its a bit Royston Vasey up there - local constituency for local people.
Bristol West - Toss up. Maybe Green.
Hartlepool - Labour squeak it.
Thurrock - Tory hold easy
Sheffield Hallam - Clegg hold;
East Renfrewshire - Tory gain ? although I believe the constituency has added a couple of council schemes since the days when it was a Tory stronghold.
Torfaen - Labour hold; Not enough Tories.
Carmarthen East - Plaid hold;
Belfast South - Alliance gain
You seem a lot more buoyant on Labour than most others who've played this game? How many Labour MPs are you forecasting?
180-190
Don't think that the lab->UKIP->Tory swing is going to play out in urban Labour heartlands. Too much anti Tory history for too many people. UKIP voters on sink estates won't vote Tory in great numbers imho.
I am a little more cautious, but not too far away at 175.
I see Fisher is in the same ballpark.
I'm really not sure and have not placed a serious bet on this election yet, but if you guys are right, Labour are a buy at 160 on the spreads.
For a while now I've been suspecting that Labour are oversold generally, and could be tempted in at current prices. Maybe. Still not sure.
I am holding back on the majority of my post Macron stake money. I did get some early bets in on the downside for the LDs, so should be in the black on anything up to 30. If over 30 I will be poorer but happier!
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Using the examples you chose, like for like comparison:
Norfolk 2013 LE share was Con 32.6 UKIP 23.5 Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 17.5% to take them to 50.1% Nearly their vote share was 48.8%
Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 35.5% UKIP 25.8% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 16.4% to take them to 51.9% Nearly their vote share was 50.5%
Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 39.5% UKIP 13.4% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 7.6% to take them to 47.1% Yes their vote share was 50.7%
Norfolk short by 1.3% Kent short by 1.4% Leics over by 3.6%
So considerably over in Leics and 'margin of error' close in Norfolk and Kent.
Lol Mark was comparing 2015 GE and 2017 LE results o_O !?
Indeed, using Mark's own chosen examples it seems that the change in UKIP share is actually a very good approximation for the change in Tory share on a like-for-like comparison.
Maybe he can tie it to 'Dunny-on-the-Wold' by-elections....
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Using the examples you chose, like for like comparison:
Norfolk 2013 LE share was Con 32.6 UKIP 23.5 Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 17.5% to take them to 50.1% Nearly their vote share was 48.8%
Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 35.5% UKIP 25.8% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 16.4% to take them to 51.9% Nearly their vote share was 50.5%
Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 39.5% UKIP 13.4% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 7.6% to take them to 47.1% Yes their vote share was 50.7%
Norfolk short by 1.3% Kent short by 1.4% Leics over by 3.6%
So considerably over in Leics and 'margin of error' close in Norfolk and Kent.
False logic i am afraid as say for Norfolk UKIP in 2015 polled 17.0% therefore in the GE the Conservatives should have got only 39.1%
WTF? You mean the Tories got more than 100% of the fall in the Ukip vote between 2013 and 2015 and you somehow think that strengthens your argument?
Had first leaflet of the campaign today from the Cons "Theresa May - a strong voice for Maidenhead". All local priorities and strangely no mention of being PM.
Not even "I will ensure Maidenhead's concerns are considered at the highest level of government"?
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Using the examples you chose, like for like comparison:
Norfolk 2013 LE share was Con 32.6 UKIP 23.5 Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 17.5% to take them to 50.1% Nearly their vote share was 48.8%
Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 35.5% UKIP 25.8% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 16.4% to take them to 51.9% Nearly their vote share was 50.5%
Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 39.5% UKIP 13.4% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 7.6% to take them to 47.1% Yes their vote share was 50.7%
Norfolk short by 1.3% Kent short by 1.4% Leics over by 3.6%
So considerably over in Leics and 'margin of error' close in Norfolk and Kent.
False logic i am afraid as say for Norfolk UKIP in 2015 polled 17.0% therefore in the GE the Conservatives should have got only 39.1%
No because you are again comparing local elections to general elections, they are not the same thing.
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Using the examples you chose, like for like comparison:
Norfolk 2013 LE share was Con 32.6 UKIP 23.5 Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 17.5% to take them to 50.1% Nearly their vote share was 48.8%
Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 35.5% UKIP 25.8% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 16.4% to take them to 51.9% Nearly their vote share was 50.5%
Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 39.5% UKIP 13.4% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 7.6% to take them to 47.1% Yes their vote share was 50.7%
Norfolk short by 1.3% Kent short by 1.4% Leics over by 3.6%
So considerably over in Leics and 'margin of error' close in Norfolk and Kent.
False logic i am afraid as say for Norfolk UKIP in 2015 polled 17.0% therefore in the GE the Conservatives should have got only 39.1%
No because you are again comparing local elections to general elections, they are not the same thing.
If they were then the Lib Dems would be massive overwhelming favourites in Eastleigh.
i just do not see the voting evidence for this Conservatives are going to mop up all the UKIP votes meme . Let us look at what actually happened last week in a few counties without too many Independents to cloud the issue .
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0% Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8% Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5% Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5% Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6% Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5% Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Rather than picking out a few examples which may or may not follow your narrative, it would be interesting to plot decrease in UKIP vote vs increase in Tory vote for each council. Do you have those numbers, or could you point me to those numbers?
Yes I have the numbers and will give them for any county you ask for . Pick one or two . Clearly counties with a substantial Independent vote in the locals will not be so meaningful .Cornwall for example will show the Conservative vote falling despite a substantial fall in the UKIP vote . If you want all my results then DYOR
Here is the plot for all but a handful of Councils (excl Cornwall, Doncaster, Lancashire, North Yorkshire, Northamptonshire):
Had first leaflet of the campaign today from the Cons "Theresa May - a strong voice for Maidenhead". All local priorities and strangely no mention of being PM.
So she didn't bother having a photo taken of herself standing next to herself?
Had first leaflet of the campaign today from the Cons "Theresa May - a strong voice for Maidenhead". All local priorities and strangely no mention of being PM.
So she didn't bother having a photo taken of herself standing next to herself?
How would you tell the human from the android?
Only the human can offer strong and stable Government for Maidenhead.
Comments
Torfaen was just as bad , the Conservatives could only field candidates in less than half the seats and polled less than 15% of the vote .
Indeed I have a very nice book as a result of my efforts on the London mayoral contest..
'None of this answers the question of what cartoon character Theresa May reminds people of. “Lady Penelope”. Strictly speaking she is a puppet, but OK. “Her from 101 Dalmatians. Cruella de Vil;” “No, that’s Cherie Blair.” The head teacher in Matilda. Miss Trunchbull.” “She was really evil, wasn’t she?” “I think Theresa May might have an evil streak in her. If she loses her temper, trust me, them men are going to know about it.”
And Jeremy Corbyn? “Deputy Dog.” “Daffy Duck.” “Andy Capp.” “I know he’s not a cartoon character, but who’s the scarecrow guy? Worzel Gummidge.” “Shaggy, from Scooby-Doo.” “Yes. I do get that Jesus sandal vibe from Jeremy Corbyn, definitely.'
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/lord-ashcroft-in-the-west-midlands-the-heads-of-my-labour-background-focus-group-battle-with-their-hearts.html
Come on, sharpen up.
YouGov - Sunday Times
ICM - Sun on Sunday
Opinium - Observer
ORB - Sunday Telegraph
It would be nice to have another ComRes (Sunday Mirror).
His results are not that surprising as regards seat wins as follows:
Tory ............. 391
Labour ......... 170
SNP ................ 49
LibDems ........ 13
Plaid ................ 3
UKIP .............. .. 0
Greens ............. 1
N.I. ................ 18
Total ............. 645
Tory Majority 132
Unfortunately the above numbers lose a certain degree of credibility in not totalling the correct number of 650 seats which are being contested. A fairly basic error one would have thought!
This should sum through to 649 though, unless you're predicting a shock in Buckingham !
Norfolk 2015 GE all seats vote share was Con 44.8% UKIP 17.0%
Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 11.0% to take them to 55.8% Nope their vote share was 48.8%
Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 49.2% UKIP 19.5%
Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 10.1% to take them to 59.3% Nope their vote share was 50.5%
Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 50.7% UKIP 15.6%
Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 9.8% to take them to 60.5%
Nope their vote share was a fraction down at 50.7%
Serious questions need to be asked at NHS etc
(I'm a information security professional by trade)
For the Brexit NoJam. Though the 300 odd entries have been erased, presumably to spare our blushes!
These are our nukes being launched at us.
You also have a massive expansion of the university and other smartification from the Met Office etc all of which is bad for the Tories.
Don't think that the lab->UKIP->Tory swing is going to play out in urban Labour heartlands.
Too much anti Tory history for too many people. UKIP voters on sink estates won't vote Tory in great numbers imho.
Re Bristol West - 2015, Labour appeared to have more sophisticated data re ward composition by household. Canvassing team with the MP had tablet/electronic data recording/analysis to gather data. Hadn't ever seen Labour canvass the road before in 13 years. Labour made gains on Council at local elections. Private Eye readers might recall a piece in Rotten Boroughs re Labour's Deputy Mayor owed £5k Council Tax.
Tory canvassed the road, on her own, without a team in support, subsequent tweets showed she was spending more time helping out in Kingswood.
Greens canvasser ex LD, ex Lab, earnest amateurs in comparision to Labour. No attempt to target voters other than students Catch all green/left programme. Plenty of stunts, tricycle rickshaw, but helped by Bristol being EU Green Capital that year, and tacit encouragement by then Mayor. They lost about half their councillors in 2015.
Am puzzled by Greens, this time Scott Cato appears to be economically left of Hall who fought in 2015, she could almost be a shoe in for Corbyn's Labour. I would place her as left of Corbyn on many issues. Some Greens were publicly called out for trying to join Labour to vote for Corbyn. Given Debonnaire's antipathy to Corbyn, it is possible that Momentum members might do little to help her.
LDs lost a large number of Councillors since 2010 to Greens and Labour. Have put up Stephen Williams again, but I do wonder if they have lost members and activists. It is possible he might pick up disenchanted Labour or Green votes. He appeared to do reasonably well in Metro Mayoral election.
Tories a very long shot, candidate is from North Somerset, comparatively late nomination last weekend. Perhaps more effort is going to be made to take Bristol East and South. Will be watching to see how much effort is made this time round.
Labour have advantage of most seats on the Council, and hold post of Elected Mayor. I think that their canvassing efforts are more carefully targeted and electronic. Had phone call from Labour re voting during Mayoral Election when Rees won. Greens still in age of clipboards. Question is has Debonnaire lost support of Corbynite left. Greens appear to be tacking to her left, but are still using clipboards. Largish numbers of Greens are supposed to be descending on Bristol this weekend.
Labour ought to hold, but it isn't going to be easy to call.
Why not compare Local Council 2013 to Local Council 2017? That's a like-for-like comparison.
We should be cautios reading from LE elections with 30% turnout to GE at 65%. Clearly a lot of people only vote at GE. Do you have figures for the 2013 Locals to compare?
Any more silly queations ?
I see Fisher is in the same ballpark.
The Northern Ireland Conservatives are standing in 7 seats. Isn't one of them a long shot (rather than a no hoper)?
Makes Liverpool look like rural Oxfordshire in terms of Tory friendliness
The Tory candidate went backwards in Cardiff West in 2015.
The Libdem vote collapsed in 2015 from 10000 to 2000 so there might be a recovery in that particularly remain voters.
The Ukip Vote was 5000 in 2015 and no candidate this time
I think this will be too close to call but would roughly estimate
Green Joe Levy 3500
Labour Ben Bradshaw 21500
Conservative James Taghdissian 22500
Liberal Democrat Vanessa Newcombe 4000
Independent Jonathan West ?
Independent Jonathan Bishop ?
Do you know anything about the independents?
Norfolk 2013 LE share was Con 32.6 UKIP 23.5
Local elections UKIP got 6.0% Did the Conservatives get the missing 17.5% to take them to 50.1% Nearly their vote share was 48.8%
Kent 2015 GE all non unitary seats Con 35.5% UKIP 25.8%
Local elections UKIP 9.4% Did the Conservatives get the missing 16.4% to take them to 51.9% Nearly their vote share was 50.5%
Leics 2015 GE all non unitary seats vote share was Con 39.5% UKIP 13.4%
Local elections UKIP 5.8% Did the Conservatives get the missing 7.6% to take them to 47.1%
Yes their vote share was 50.7%
Norfolk short by 1.3%
Kent short by 1.4%
Leics over by 3.6%
So considerably over in Leics and 'margin of error' close in Norfolk and Kent.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=4gR562GW7TI
http://i.imgur.com/1kXlIIK.png
Mixed bag.. For some of the councils the Tory improvement is greater than the UKIP decline, but for 2/3rds the reverse is True.
Its almost as if General Elections and Local Elections aren't comparable. Oh wait, they're not.
https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/863104089151942657
For a while now I've been suspecting that Labour are oversold generally, and could be tempted in at current prices. Maybe. Still not sure.
https://goo.gl/l4Ye3f
The black line was photoshopped in.