So various media outlets have got hold of this leak. And all at very similar times.
So who leaked this manifesto to them, and why?
Labour did, to test it out, see which bits they focus on from hereon out. And because the lack of CPS charges meant no good news the leak would distract from.
Someone is trying to sabotage its finalisation prior to its launch.
That will be for a reason.
Why assume the release is to sabotage it? The Mirror say,
Overall the manifesto will delight Labour left-wingers who have spent decades calling for the party to be more radical.
But it was strongly criticised last night by a source from the right of the party who has read it in full.
The source said: “Is that it? For 40 years the Hard Left wanted to control the Labour manifesto, and all it amounts to is a load of freebies for every special interest group."
So you've got one side of the party who will be very happy, and another side who will continue to bitch and moan, but do nothing about it, meaning it will go forward as is and most MPs will play ball and say they support it, if pressed.
The Mirror is hardly a neutral source.
The point was some in Labour will love it, others might hate it but have demonstrated they have no balls, so won't do anything about it, so the release won't sabotage it in my view.
It prevents it being launched as the leadership would like, and allows it to be scrutinised and mocked before it even gets to the launch event. Thereby setting the prism through which it will subsequently be viewed.
It eliminates any chance of a positive news cycle.
Honestly, given how extreme Corbyn appears, by comparison it doesn't really shock me, this supposed manifesto. The Tories have already prepared me for anything, up to full on communism.
He's not had a terrible start to his campaign really - especially as compared to his shadow cabinet/
Renationalizing the industries privatised by Tory Governments since the mid-80s hardly amounts to Communism . The logic of claiming otherwise would imply that Heath - Macmillan - Eden -Churchill et al were dangerous Reds.
No, it just ignores all the painful and expensive lessons of the last 40 years.
Whatever you think of Corbyn we're still facing the challenge of how to make a modern market economy work. The Tories haven't exactly proved too successful on that front either.
Disagree. Our living standards continue to improve despite the consequences of the odd Labour government (none as odd as the current shower of course) . The market economy continues to work for us all albeit to very different extents. The increase in inequality is an increasing concern and is potentially destabilising but as a method of wealth creation it has yet to be beaten.
I wasn't disagreeing with the market economy per se just questioning why it hasn't worked better in the UK in recent decades. Simon Nixon of the Wall Street Journal had a good quote from a foreign CEO of a company operating in the UK. 'The trouble with you lot in London is you don't know your own country. The reality is you're Switzerland connected to East Germany.'
For all the manure thrown at the French by our idiotic right wing press we seem unable to outperform them in terms of per capita incomes which are 15%+ below the average in the Netherlands, Germany and Sweden. That's in spite of our long hours and high number of billionaires - see the rich list - to push up the average.
The UK ranks comfortably ahead of France on almost every measure albeit somewhat behind Germany and Austria. Those in work in France admittedly do well and are very productive but that is because they exclude a lot of the less productive members from employment altogether compared to the UK.
There is actually some decent stuff in the Labour manifesto. Renationalising energy and ploughing its surpluses into renewables can certainly be defended. It makes more sense than May's halfway house price cap in many respects. Renationalising rail is wise - franchising doesn't work, indeed many of the best railways in the UK are those in the public sector. There's no way to defend the existing system where - outside London - trains can only be nationalised to foreign governments but not our own.
Which TOCs in the UK are nationalised?
London Overground TFL Rail Newcastle Metro
Eurostar and East Coast Main Line were too until the Tories sold them off for no good reason other than batshit crazy ideology - they were both well run in the public sector.
Two further franchises are nationalised to France and Germany...
Interestingly the last politician to permanently nationalise a railway to improve it was that well known Commie Boris "Red Bozza" Johnson, who brought the Abelio Greater Anglia into the Overground (Chingford and Waltham Cross to Liverpool St) because the franchisee was running it into the ground.
If you've got not chance of winning an election you may as well be populist. Labour's lack of ambition in 2015 was with the idea that they might actually get elected in mind. That's why they could only commit to £8 minimum wage/partial railway renationalisation etc.
It also doesn't make sense for a left wing leader like Corbyn to be running on a soft left social democrat platform. Saying nice things every day seems to have worked well for Labour so far.
General Election 2015: Warrington North[4][5] Party Candidate Votes % ± Labour Helen Jones 21,720 47.8 +2.3 Conservative Richard Short 12,797 28.2 -2.1 UKIP Trevor Nicholls 7,757 17.1 N/A Liberal Democrat Stefan Krizanac 1,881 4.1 −16.7 Green Sarah Hayes 1,264 2.8 N/A
I think this one could go Tory, I grew up here. If the IRA / Corbyn story gets traction or wide publicity, then this could suppress the labour turnout, large UKIP vote to squeeze, Warrington as a whole voted 55% leave and this is the less well off of the two Warrington constituencies.
my son works for network rail in warrington, very unionised workplace WWC traditional labour vote. none of them can stand Corbyn . infact on Corbyns visit to warrington the other week some of the comments on social media were not good because of his IRA loving background . it could well flip blue
Policies Policies Policies.
The working class need to look at Corbyns Policies rather than the Sun headlines
If Corbyn combined that with strong patriotism, strong defence, euroscepticism, immigration control and support for the monarchy, I agree the Tories might start to be very concerned.
It is not Patriotic to starve your own people to hand monies back to your party donors.
TFL has the second worse record on strikes of any rail network in the UK of recent times.
I have no problem with nationalisation of the railways if it is done in a workable way, but it requires people to stop thinking that it will be simple, shit money and solve all our issues. The reason rail use has skyrocketed isn't because it was always going to, it is because the private firms made the trains usable again and would going back to the old British Rail replicate that? Or do we have an arms length body to run it and if so are the unions going to play ball as they are the biggest stumbling block to all of this, they do not have the working relationship with the TOC's that the unions do in France or Holland. It is adversarial.
Arriva's parent compant is Deutsche Bahn. They also run CrossCountry.
Yup, I know. Arriva weren't originally owned by DB were they IIRC.
It seems that May and Hammond work in creative tension, at their best, and play off each others strengths and weaknesses: red Toryism v. free market Toryism.
But, as we've seen before, I note the biggest problem there is May's chief aides and the briefing wars they unleash.
But I don't think we have the money to do that lot with Brexit and all
Look its simple. We double CT (even though reducing it has actually increased the take to date) and its all paid for without any adverse consequences to anyone.
Time for freeloading big Corporates to pay towards a decent society IMO
Well good luck with that. But I think you will find that those big Corporates have a fair degree of latitude about where they pay their taxes and have a strange bias to those asking for a smaller share.
But I don't think we have the money to do that lot with Brexit and all
Look its simple. We double CT (even though reducing it has actually increased the take to date) and its all paid for without any adverse consequences to anyone.
Time for freeloading big Corporates to pay towards a decent society IMO
Well good luck with that. But I think you will find that those big Corporates have a fair degree of latitude about where they pay their taxes and have a strange bias to those asking for a smaller share.
26% Corporation Tax rate will be about halfway in the league table of corporate taxes. Isn't German CT higher than that ?
General Election 2015: Warrington North[4][5] Party Candidate Votes % ± Labour Helen Jones 21,720 47.8 +2.3 Conservative Richard Short 12,797 28.2 -2.1 UKIP Trevor Nicholls 7,757 17.1 N/A Liberal Democrat Stefan Krizanac 1,881 4.1 −16.7 Green Sarah Hayes 1,264 2.8 N/A
I think this one could go Tory, I grew up here. If the IRA / Corbyn story gets traction or wide publicity, then this could suppress the labour turnout, large UKIP vote to squeeze, Warrington as a whole voted 55% leave and this is the less well off of the two Warrington constituencies.
my son works for network rail in warrington, very unionised workplace WWC traditional labour vote. none of them can stand Corbyn . infact on Corbyns visit to warrington the other week some of the comments on social media were not good because of his IRA loving background . it could well flip blue
Policies Policies Policies.
The working class need to look at Corbyns Policies rather than the Sun headlines
If Corbyn combined that with strong patriotism, strong defence, euroscepticism, immigration control and support for the monarchy, I agree the Tories might start to be very concerned.
It is not Patriotic to starve your own people to hand monies back to your party donors.
Corbyn is a Eurosceptic.
Trident supported in Lab Manifesto
Immigration is good for the economy
The Monarchy is safe even under Corbyn
You're projecting, but it's academic whether you do or not, to be honest.
There is actually some decent stuff in the Labour manifesto. Renationalising energy and ploughing its surpluses into renewables can certainly be defended. It makes more sense than May's halfway house price cap in many respects. Renationalising rail is wise - franchising doesn't work, indeed many of the best railways in the UK are those in the public sector. There's no way to defend the existing system where - outside London - trains can only be nationalised to foreign governments but not our own.
Which TOCs in the UK are nationalised?
French and German Nationalised Rail Companies are both running Trains here.
Crazy Torynomics
I thought Brexit was about taking control. Nationalising French and German rail into British Rail is taking back control.
Part of me wouldn't be surprised if that was the eventual result.
5% UKIP would surprise me.
I think it will be lower. Lets see how many candidates they actually have. We won't be in Scottish Green territory but I would be surprised if UKIP are an option in more than half the seats halving their overall percentage.
There is actually some decent stuff in the Labour manifesto. Renationalising energy and ploughing its surpluses into renewables can certainly be defended. It makes more sense than May's halfway house price cap in many respects. Renationalising rail is wise - franchising doesn't work, indeed many of the best railways in the UK are those in the public sector. There's no way to defend the existing system where - outside London - trains can only be nationalised to foreign governments but not our own.
Which TOCs in the UK are nationalised?
French and German Nationalised Rail Companies are both running Trains here.
Crazy Torynomics
Dutch and German - Abellio and Deutsche Bahn
Once we are out of the EU we can look at tightening who runs what, the principle problem is the barriers to entry in the market are huge and the expertise are sparse.
And it's a natural monopoly. And one that requires public subsidy.
If a plan was drawn up that said we could have an arms length organisation, that was free to act as commercially as it wanted and could work with the unions to provide a service I would be interested. But there are two massive stumbling blocks there.
So various media outlets have got hold of this leak. And all at very similar times.
So who leaked this manifesto to them, and why?
Labour did, to test it out, see which bits they focus on from hereon out. And because the lack of CPS charges meant no good news the leak would distract from.
Yep. Dominate the news tommorow. Jezza is growing on me.
I would laugh like a hyena if the SNP votes hold up, LDs touch 30 and Labour makes modest gains with Old Labour policies getting Old Labour votrs.
The Coalition of Chaos would be hilarious, and May licking her wounds.
And so says a Tory loon. In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
PB Tories in a panic? I thought we were being too triumphalistic yesterday
Four more fucking weeks until the election, no other manifesto has been launched and this one hasn't been put through the mill yet. But yeah, panic Tories, panic.
TFL has the second worse record on strikes of any rail network in the UK of recent times.
I have no problem with nationalisation of the railways if it is done in a workable way, but it requires people to stop thinking that it will be simple, shit money and solve all our issues. The reason rail use has skyrocketed isn't because it was always going to, it is because the private firms made the trains usable again and would going back to the old British Rail replicate that? Or do we have an arms length body to run it and if so are the unions going to play ball as they are the biggest stumbling block to all of this, they do not have the working relationship with the TOC's that the unions do in France or Holland. It is adversarial.
Arriva run trains on the Overground for TfL, a public body. It's no different in that respect to any other contractor delivering services for the public sector. Vast building companies deliver projects for the NHS. That doesn't mean the NHS is in the private sector.
In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
How have you assessed that? The real world is not aware it exists yet!
More to the point, you can have some great policies and still lose, so how decent the manifesto may or may not be is not hugely relevant. It's got some nice stuff in it, it promises huge borrowing and spending, which will have an appeal, and it has some stuff playing to the core vote which will repeal or annoy others (the equivalent of a Fox hunting promise in a Tory manifesto). But how many will believe in it if they think Corbyn is bad or Labour have no credibility on sums? Less clear.
And so says a Tory loon. In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
We're all at Casualty with cracked ribs, from the laughing.
But seriously, Corbyn had to have this Socialist red in tooth and claw 70's manifesto. So this nonsense can be voted into oblivion and never, EVER be inflicted on the British people again.
TFL has the second worse record on strikes of any rail network in the UK of recent times.
I have no problem with nationalisation of the railways if it is done in a workable way, but it requires people to stop thinking that it will be simple, shit money and solve all our issues. The reason rail use has skyrocketed isn't because it was always going to, it is because the private firms made the trains usable again and would going back to the old British Rail replicate that? Or do we have an arms length body to run it and if so are the unions going to play ball as they are the biggest stumbling block to all of this, they do not have the working relationship with the TOC's that the unions do in France or Holland. It is adversarial.
Arriva run trains on the Overground for TfL, a public body. It's no different in that respect to any other contractor delivering services for the public sector. Vast building companies deliver projects for the NHS. That doesn't mean the NHS is in the private sector.
.....but that means all TOC's are publicly run as they are franchised by the DfT.
It seems that May and Hammond work in creative tension, at their best, and play off each others strengths and weaknesses: red Toryism v. free market Toryism.
But, as we've seen before, I note the biggest problem there is May's chief aides and the briefing wars they unleash.
'Creative tension'? Ha, ha. I spotted it. Good one.
"You know that party they had the other day for Jim Callaghan's 90th," recalls one MP. "I was thinking about that cabinet: Benn, Foot, Healey, Owen, Williams, Crosland, Shore - they all hated each other!" The current crop may have the odd spat - and one man in a position to know confirms that, yes, Blair and Gordon Brown do indeed have stand-up, four-letter rows but, don't worry, they "enjoy argument" and the tension is always "creative".
And so says a Tory loon. In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
Does this look decent
The party will also create a Ministry of Labour to hand more power to trade unions, stating: "We are stronger when we stand together".
Pay bargaining and increased unionisation across the workforce will also be introduced according to the draft plan.
Even Roger thinks that is shit
Very decent indeed. Nothing fair about workers who don't pay into the Union but benefit by the payrises and conditions negotiated by the Union. They are freeloaders.
But I don't think we have the money to do that lot with Brexit and all
Look its simple. We double CT (even though reducing it has actually increased the take to date) and its all paid for without any adverse consequences to anyone.
Time for freeloading big Corporates to pay towards a decent society IMO
I think you will find that those big Corporates have a fair degree of latitude about where they AVOID their taxes.
Corrected
Hence why the system is rigged against the many in favour of the few.
Honestly, given how extreme Corbyn appears, by comparison it doesn't really shock me, this supposed manifesto. The Tories have already prepared me for anything, up to full on communism.
He's not had a terrible start to his campaign really - especially as compared to his shadow cabinet/
Renationalizing the industries privatised by Tory Governments since the mid-80s hardly amounts to Communism . The logic of claiming otherwise would imply that Heath - Macmillan - Eden -Churchill et al were dangerous Reds.
No, it just ignores all the painful and expensive lessons of the last 40 years.
Privatisation is far from universally perceived to have been a success. Blair made the mistake of not even trying to reverse some of the sell offs of the Thatcher-Major years. Renationalizing the Railways & the Water companies would have been popular in 1997 but he appeared determined to accept the Thatcherite settlement and in some ways to take it further.I believe I am correct in saying that Scottish Water remains in the public sector so such a proposal is hardly extreme.I suspect returning Royal Mail to state control would also be welcomed by many.
The Royal Mail sell off was a low point for Osborne. The taxpayer lost about a billion quid, so undervalued was the asset. Not that it should ever have been sold in the first place.
I was disappointed in myself for not signing up to buy the shares. I (perhaps foolishly) believed they would be sold off at a fair market value in order to be fair to the purchasers and the taxpayer. Oh how wrong I was....
I didn't buy them on principle. I can't see the sense in selling off the family silver for a one-off cash injection that in any case is a drop in the ocean given the size of both the national debt and deficit. That Ozzy flogged it at a cut-price car boot sale simply added insult to injury.
And so says a Tory loon. In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
Does this look decent
The party will also create a Ministry of Labour to hand more power to trade unions, stating: "We are stronger when we stand together".
Pay bargaining and increased unionisation across the workforce will also be introduced according to the draft plan.
Even Roger thinks that is shit
Very decent indeed. Nothing fair about workers who don't pay into the Union but benefit by the payrises and conditions negotiated by the Union. They are freeloaders.
More fool you then doc.
Again, why give everyone the same irrespective of performance.
And so says a Tory loon. In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
PB Tories in a panic? I thought we were being too triumphalistic yesterday
A populist manifesto has changed the narrative...
Let's see how the polls move - I may have to rebalance my betting positions.
It's changed the narrative? No, looks like it's still the same!
And what will the Tories give us?
Same old crap? Rich and powerful can get away with murder while the rest of us are screwed? People want a change, they really do...
Why do people insist on saying that, even when the Tories are expected to win? If the Tories really are 12-15 points ahead and win a landslide, will you still be saying the people want a change, because they clearly won't in that case. Let's see in 4 weeks, but while the Tories have been triumphal in recent weeks, it's not without cause, and odds are they are far more popular than the people who claim the 'people' want a change, even if they do not win a landslide.
Reminds me of that rather comical piece in the Guardian someone linked yesterday, following someone who I feel cannot have been a professional journalist given how emotional they were, following candidates in an area devastated by cuts in all sorts of areas as a result of the Tory government, and then the Tories won control of the council easily, and they were just so baffled by it, clearly and overtly thinking the people must realise they shouldn't vote Tory, but they did anyway.
And so says a Tory loon. In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
Tonight's YouGov has the Tory lead at 16%.
The next YouGov is due Saturday, how much do you think the Tory lead will be reduced by in that poll, which will have been conducted entirely after the manifesto leak?
And so says a Tory loon. In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
Does this look decent
The party will also create a Ministry of Labour to hand more power to trade unions, stating: "We are stronger when we stand together".
Pay bargaining and increased unionisation across the workforce will also be introduced according to the draft plan.
Even Roger thinks that is shit
Very decent indeed. Nothing fair about workers who don't pay into the Union but benefit by the payrises and conditions negotiated by the Union. They are freeloaders.
More fool you then doc.
Again, why give everyone the same irrespective of performance.
Do you think that drives standards up or down?
That doesn't follow from union membership. Bonus payments rtc should be on the basis of performance not the whims of the bosses.
It looks as if Labour ar serious about "the workers Brexit not the bosses Brexit."
And so says a Tory loon. In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
Tonight's YouGov has the Tory lead at 16%.
The next YouGov is due Saturday, how much do you think the Tory lead will be reduced by in that poll, which will have been conducted entirely after the manifesto leak?
Lead will still be ~15%ish but I expect that to narrow next week (to ~10-12%). At least one poll next week will only show a 10% lead.
Have to admit free tuition fees, nationalised rail, nationalised mail & a decent home building program do have a bit of appeal...
You live in a marginal
Eckington & Killamarsh ward is very marginal now. Which tells you all you need to know about Engel's chances in NE Derbyshire. Take a look at the Dronfield votes...
Exactly as I say you live in a marginal. A LD vote only helps ensure we move further away from free tuition fees, nationalised rail, nationalised mail & a decent home building program.
Free things, things that are declared will be run in the public interest, more cheap homes, and taxes on others to pay for it all can look appetising on paper.
But these policies were all tested to death over many years many decades ago. And we know how they ended up.
It's a recipe for economic sclerosis, serfdom and a nation held to ransom by prevailing producer interests.
True. But that doesn't mean it won't happen again.
The liberal Leavers, the Thatcherites, the free-traders and the globalists advocated Brexit as a means of expanding trading ("out into the world"). Fair enough, and I would have happily settled for that. But it ignored the increasing concern regarding immigration, Islamism and a resiling from a global role and the impetus that Brexit would give to that. May embodies this trend and her concerns (eg grammar schools) speaks to people's everyday domestic concerns instead of people's global dreams. And it's going to be very successful. But it's not "Conservative" as our generation understands it.
People think "Conservative" mean what it meant in the 80's: Hayekean, deregulatory, privatising, globalists, free-trade, strong pound, strong defence. But it wasn't always that way, and I argue that it isn't any more and hasn't been for some time. May's Conservatives are paternalists, patriotic localists, interfering Christian Democrats, and she's about to win an election bigly.
So I'm wondering: is (say) an expansion of housebuilding something May will adopt?
Have they answered the question about where they are going to find the million workers to fill the million jobs created in the £250b national infrastructure plan?
Have they answered the question about where they are going to find the million workers to fill the million jobs created in the £250b national infrastructure plan?
And so says a Tory loon. In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
Tonight's YouGov has the Tory lead at 16%.
The next YouGov is due Saturday, how much do you think the Tory lead will be reduced by in that poll, which will have been conducted entirely after the manifesto leak?
I see the junior north London team might be making your boys sweat a little?
And so says a Tory loon. In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
PB Tories in a panic? I thought we were being too triumphalistic yesterday
A populist manifesto has changed the narrative...
Let's see how the polls move - I may have to rebalance my betting positions.
It's changed the narrative? No, looks like it's still the same!
And what will the Tories give us?
Same old crap? Rich and powerful can get away with murder while the rest of us are screwed? People want a change, they really do...
Yep, the top 1% can get away with paying just 27% of all income tax. The bastards.
Remind me, what was that number under the last Labour Govt.? Painful truth for Labour is that this past 7 years of Coalition then Tory Govt. has been more redistributive of the tax burden than they dared over 13 years.
Free things, things that are declared will be run in the public interest, more cheap homes, and taxes on others to pay for it all can look appetising on paper.
But these policies were all tested to death over many years many decades ago. And we know how they ended up.
It's a recipe for economic sclerosis, serfdom and a nation held to ransom by prevailing producer interests.
True. But that doesn't mean it won't happen again.
The liberal Leavers, the Thatcherites, the free-traders and the globalists advocated Brexit as a means of expanding trading ("out into the world"). Fair enough, and I would have happily settled for that. But it ignored the increasing concern regarding immigration, Islamism and a resiling from a global role and the impetus that Brexit would give to that. May embodies this trend and her concerns (eg grammar schools) speaks to people's everyday domestic concerns instead of people's global dreams. And it's going to be very successful. But it's not "Conservative" as our generation understands it.
People think "Conservative" mean what it meant in the 80's: Hayekean, deregulatory, privatising, globalists, free-trade, strong pound, strong defence. But it wasn't always that way, and I argue that it isn't any more and hasn't been for some time. May's Conservatives are paternalists, patriotic localists, interfering Christian Democrats, and she's about to win an election bigly.
So I'm wondering: is (say) an expansion of housebuilding something May will adopt?
I think MacMillan built more housrs than any other in the post war period. He resented Maggie selling off the family silver too.
And so says a Tory loon. In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
Tonight's YouGov has the Tory lead at 16%.
The next YouGov is due Saturday, how much do you think the Tory lead will be reduced by in that poll, which will have been conducted entirely after the manifesto leak?
I see the junior north London team might be making your boys sweat a little?
I'm already expecting for Thursday night football next season.
Forget Coutinho, it's Mane that makes our team awesome.
I have to admit I've warmed to him slightly, and I never thought I'd write that. Rail nationalisation and energy nationalisation with its surpluses being ploughed back into renewables development is arguably a more enlightened approach that May's price capping policy.
And so says a Tory loon. In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
Tonight's YouGov has the Tory lead at 16%.
The next YouGov is due Saturday, how much do you think the Tory lead will be reduced by in that poll, which will have been conducted entirely after the manifesto leak?
Lead will still be ~15%ish but I expect that to narrow next week (to ~10-12%). At least one poll next week will only show a 10% lead.
I predicted that would happen at some point in the campaign (given the 20 point leads came out of nowhere just before the GE announcement), but that is still a big lead, showing that 'the people' do not want a change, even if they do not massively endorse via a landslide.
Have they answered the question about where they are going to find the million workers to fill the million jobs created in the £250b national infrastructure plan?
i knew that money grew on trees, I didn't realise that people did as well.
Free things, things that are declared will be run in the public interest, more cheap homes, and taxes on others to pay for it all can look appetising on paper.
But these policies were all tested to death over many years many decades ago. And we know how they ended up.
It's a recipe for economic sclerosis, serfdom and a nation held to ransom by prevailing producer interests.
True. But that doesn't mean it won't happen again.
The liberal Leavers, the Thatcherites, the free-traders and the globalists advocated Brexit as a means of expanding trading ("out into the world"). Fair enough, and I would have happily settled for that. But it ignored the increasing concern regarding immigration, Islamism and a resiling from a global role and the impetus that Brexit would give to that. May embodies this trend and her concerns (eg grammar schools) speaks to people's everyday domestic concerns instead of people's global dreams. And it's going to be very successful. But it's not "Conservative" as our generation understands it.
People think "Conservative" mean what it meant in the 80's: Hayekean, deregulatory, privatising, globalists, free-trade, strong pound, strong defence. But it wasn't always that way, and I argue that it isn't any more and hasn't been for some time. May's Conservatives are paternalists, patriotic localists, interfering Christian Democrats, and she's about to win an election bigly.
So I'm wondering: is (say) an expansion of housebuilding something May will adopt?
I think MacMillan built more housrs than any other in the post war period. He resented Maggie selling off the family silver too.
Perhaps May can set up a future Conservative prime minister for a similar dividend.
And so says a Tory loon. In the real "non Tory" world, this manifesto looks decent.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
Tonight's YouGov has the Tory lead at 16%.
The next YouGov is due Saturday, how much do you think the Tory lead will be reduced by in that poll, which will have been conducted entirely after the manifesto leak?
Lead will still be ~15%ish but I expect that to narrow next week (to ~10-12%). At least one poll next week will only show a 10% lead.
I predicted that would happen at some point in the campaign (given the 20 point leads came out of nowhere just before the GE announcement), but that is still a big lead, showing that 'the people' do not want a change, even if they do not massively endorse via a landslide.
I think murali_s is predicting this is the day the polls will turn....
I have to admit I've warmed to him slightly, and I never thought I'd write that. Rail nationalisation and energy nationalisation with its surpluses being ploughed back into renewables development is arguably a more enlightened approach that May's price capping policy.
Sunder Katwala Retweeted Neil Henderson Derby County, Leeds United and Nottingham Forest could be the big winners here. (Happy for @Hargraver@MatthewRhodes & @steveballinger )
Have they answered the question about where they are going to find the million workers to fill the million jobs created in the £250b national infrastructure plan?
GO borrowed more than all Labour Chancellors combined #GOGenius
Have they answered the question about where they are going to find the million workers to fill the million jobs created in the £250b national infrastructure plan?
i knew that money grew on trees, I didn't realise that people did as well.
Comments
Labour manifesto policies all poll very well but test is whether voters buy collective package.
It eliminates any chance of a positive news cycle.
The UK ranks comfortably ahead of France on almost every measure albeit somewhat behind Germany and Austria. Those in work in France admittedly do well and are very productive but that is because they exclude a lot of the less productive members from employment altogether compared to the UK.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSGeskFzE0s
Labour's core really is 30%.
It also doesn't make sense for a left wing leader like Corbyn to be running on a soft left social democrat platform. Saying nice things every day seems to have worked well for Labour so far.
Corbyn is a Eurosceptic.
Trident supported in Lab Manifesto
Immigration is good for the economy
The Monarchy is safe even under Corbyn
Even Mrs T spent most of her premiership frustrated with Number 11
But, as we've seen before, I note the biggest problem there is May's chief aides and the briefing wars they unleash.
PB Tories seem in a little bit of a panic. Everything ok PB Tories?
Shocking, how can a politician be left exposed to ordinary people like this.
There is not perfect model;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/11/why-german-trains-dont-run-on-time-any-more
French rail has some serious issues off the mainlines, the branch lines are being starved of cash.
The party will also create a Ministry of Labour to hand more power to trade unions, stating: "We are stronger when we stand together".
Pay bargaining and increased unionisation across the workforce will also be introduced according to the draft plan.
Even Roger thinks that is shit
Let's see how the polls move - I may have to rebalance my betting positions.
I would laugh like a hyena if the SNP votes hold up, LDs touch 30 and Labour makes modest gains with Old Labour policies getting Old Labour votrs.
The Coalition of Chaos would be hilarious, and May licking her wounds.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4493062/Tory-councillor-posts-offensive-colonial-era-Africa-tweets.html
More to the point, you can have some great policies and still lose, so how decent the manifesto may or may not be is not hugely relevant. It's got some nice stuff in it, it promises huge borrowing and spending, which will have an appeal, and it has some stuff playing to the core vote which will repeal or annoy others (the equivalent of a Fox hunting promise in a Tory manifesto). But how many will believe in it if they think Corbyn is bad or Labour have no credibility on sums? Less clear.
Why should some unsackable do nothing get the same as someone who is a high achiever
But seriously, Corbyn had to have this Socialist red in tooth and claw 70's manifesto. So this nonsense can be voted into oblivion and never, EVER be inflicted on the British people again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwpmQ8_iwEo
Same old crap? Rich and powerful can get away with murder while the rest of us are screwed? People want a change, they really do...
"You know that party they had the other day for Jim Callaghan's 90th," recalls one MP. "I was thinking about that cabinet: Benn, Foot, Healey, Owen, Williams, Crosland, Shore - they all hated each other!" The current crop may have the odd spat - and one man in a position to know confirms that, yes, Blair and Gordon Brown do indeed have stand-up, four-letter rows but, don't worry, they "enjoy argument" and the tension is always "creative".
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/may/01/uk.fiveyearsoflabour
Hence why the system is rigged against the many in favour of the few.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SguYlpm3ffQ
Again, why give everyone the same irrespective of performance.
Do you think that drives standards up or down?
You really are a pathetic tribe and you're probably ugly m*thf*ckers too!
Reminds me of that rather comical piece in the Guardian someone linked yesterday, following someone who I feel cannot have been a professional journalist given how emotional they were, following candidates in an area devastated by cuts in all sorts of areas as a result of the Tory government, and then the Tories won control of the council easily, and they were just so baffled by it, clearly and overtly thinking the people must realise they shouldn't vote Tory, but they did anyway.
The next YouGov is due Saturday, how much do you think the Tory lead will be reduced by in that poll, which will have been conducted entirely after the manifesto leak?
(a) reintroduce beer and sandwiches at number ten for meetings between the prime minister and trade union barons.
(b) go cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund when it all goes pear-shaped.
It looks as if Labour ar serious about "the workers Brexit not the bosses Brexit."
The liberal Leavers, the Thatcherites, the free-traders and the globalists advocated Brexit as a means of expanding trading ("out into the world"). Fair enough, and I would have happily settled for that. But it ignored the increasing concern regarding immigration, Islamism and a resiling from a global role and the impetus that Brexit would give to that. May embodies this trend and her concerns (eg grammar schools) speaks to people's everyday domestic concerns instead of people's global dreams. And it's going to be very successful. But it's not "Conservative" as our generation understands it.
People think "Conservative" mean what it meant in the 80's: Hayekean, deregulatory, privatising, globalists, free-trade, strong pound, strong defence. But it wasn't always that way, and I argue that it isn't any more and hasn't been for some time. May's Conservatives are paternalists, patriotic localists, interfering Christian Democrats, and she's about to win an election bigly.
So I'm wondering: is (say) an expansion of housebuilding something May will adopt?
Remind me, what was that number under the last Labour Govt.? Painful truth for Labour is that this past 7 years of Coalition then Tory Govt. has been more redistributive of the tax burden than they dared over 13 years.
Forget Coutinho, it's Mane that makes our team awesome.
I have to admit I've warmed to him slightly, and I never thought I'd write that. Rail nationalisation and energy nationalisation with its surpluses being ploughed back into renewables development is arguably a more enlightened approach that May's price capping policy.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4493288/War-veteran-jeered-Jeremy-Corbyn-rally.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4493480/Has-Ben-Fogle-Ed-Stone-west-London-eatery.html
https://twitter.com/TheOncoming/status/862431203290480640
Sunder Katwala Retweeted Neil Henderson
Derby County, Leeds United and Nottingham Forest could be the big winners here. (Happy for @Hargraver @MatthewRhodes & @steveballinger )
Neil HendersonVerified account
@hendopolis
MAIL: Labour's manifesto to drag us back to the 1970's #tomorrowspaperstoday