Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
He's got a ~ 14k majority over the realistic challenger though. Same pop as people going on about 7 Labour gains in Scotland.
An interesting reversal of a very fine speech, one of the great speeches of the late 20th century indeed.
Kinnock accused Liverpool Labour/Militant of starting with promises you cannot keep, pickling them into a rigid dogma and ending in grotesque chaos.
Corbyn started with grotesque chaos, has pickled that into a rigid dogma and is now providing policies he cannot keep.
Sorry but this is one policy promise he can and should keep. Selling arms to the country that is doing more to destabilise the Middle East than any other is just fecking stupid. It costs us vast sums in the long run and makes the world a far less safe place.
Yes, but he won't for two reasons:
1) He's not going to win power;
2) He's not, in the vanishingly unlikely event the national electorate has a collective brain fade and he gets into power, going to lay off hundreds of workers merely because they happen to making their livelihoods by selling arms to the Saudis to kill lots of people in Yemen. Why do you think he's soft-pedalling his opposition to Trident?
I would add there's a certain irony in Corbyn being concerned about the Yemenis when he hasn't always been so concerned to avoid those causing bloodshed in the Middle East...
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
The Greens are not standing in Southport which might help the Yellows. There was a 'Southport Party' as well in 2015 - they got a respectable 992 votes.
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
The extent of the legal (not Congressional) investigations into Trump personally are becoming clear. A huge amount of effort is being put in to following money.
No denying Donald's decisiveness, Comey made it known to the White House that he'd have to be fired as he wasn't going to drop the many many lines of investigation. And there are so many lines its potentially like whack-a-mole from Trump.
You know, it'd be a pity for the LDs to lose Clegg. He would probably do better than Farron with the public if he ever had another shot at leading.
I agree. I disagree with him on a lot of things but he is an intelligent, articulate voice who was a competent deputy PM whilst Farron is an irritating wee naff who has never done anything useful.
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
The Greens are not standing in Southport which might help the Yellows. There was a 'Southport Party' as well in 2015 - they got a respectable 992 votes.
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
So you seem to have responded twice. Fanboy!
I don't disagree for a moment with your thoughts.
PS I may possibly have used 'fanboy' incorrectly. I make no apologies.
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
It was said 3,000 Tories voted tactically for Clegg last time.
That 14k majority becomes an 8k majority.
The Tories are generally polling 10% above what they polled in 2015 if the polls are to be believed whilst the Lib Dems are still stuck in that rut.
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
It was said 3,000 Tories voted tactically for Clegg last time.
That 14k majority becomes an 8k majority.
The Tories are generally polling 10% above what they polled in 2015 if the polls are to be believed whilst the Lib Dems are still stuck in that rut.
Just how many extra bottles of champers am I going to have to have on standby?
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
Delusion has set in amongst Conservative posters on here . They think they are going to overturn any seat whatever the majority .
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
It was said 3,000 Tories voted tactically for Clegg last time.
That 14k majority becomes an 8k majority.
The Tories are generally polling 10% above what they polled in 2015 if the polls are to be believed whilst the Lib Dems are still stuck in that rut.
Just how many extra bottles of champers am I going to have to have on standby?
Like 18 Tory seats in Scotland, it is most unlikely.
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
Delusion has set in amongst Conservative posters on here . They think they are going to overturn any seat whatever the majority .
You know, it'd be a pity for the LDs to lose Clegg. He would probably do better than Farron with the public if he ever had another shot at leading.
I agree. I disagree with him on a lot of things but he is an intelligent, articulate voice who was a competent deputy PM whilst Farron is an irritating wee naff who has never done anything useful.
Had a discussion about this with some acquaintances the other day - neither really liked Farron but had trouble articulating what about him they found hard to warm too, why Clegg was seen as just more impressive in general.
I feel for Clegg - while many will have thought it just the LDs got hammered under his leadership, it does feel like the voters were unduly harsh, and it looks like it has as much chance of getting worse now as better, and yet even though he is the best of the bunch, his history as leader means he cannot take them forward.
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
Delusion has set in amongst Conservative posters on here . They think they are going to overturn any seat whatever the majority .
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
Delusion has set in amongst Conservative posters on here . They think they are going to overturn any seat whatever the majority .
That may be so, but you constantly talk up LD chances, and fact is they have underperformed plenty of times, so everyone gets things wrong. Tories are getting overexcited - and it is worth remembering they would have been happy with 60 ish majority when things started, and 5 SCON seats - and may be in for a fall, but ramping is not a uniquely Tory trait. Given my own history of overestimating Lab and LD, and underestimating CON, I'm resolved to try to do less of all three.
You know, it'd be a pity for the LDs to lose Clegg. He would probably do better than Farron with the public if he ever had another shot at leading.
I agree. I disagree with him on a lot of things but he is an intelligent, articulate voice who was a competent deputy PM whilst Farron is an irritating wee naff who has never done anything useful.
Had a discussion about this with some acquaintances the other day - neither really liked Farron but had trouble articulating what about him they found hard to warm too, why Clegg was seen as just more impressive in general.
I feel for Clegg - while many will have thought it just the LDs got hammered under his leadership, it does feel like the voters were unduly harsh, and it looks like it has as much chance of getting worse now as better, and yet even though he is the best of the bunch, his history as leader means he cannot take them forward.
Clegg was polished, but I never saw much evidence he was anywhere near as bright as he thought he was - in general he was lucky to get an excellent education and probably went further and achieved more than his pure ability would have justified from the off.
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
Delusion has set in amongst Conservative posters on here . They think they are going to overturn any seat whatever the majority .
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
It was said 3,000 Tories voted tactically for Clegg last time.
That 14k majority becomes an 8k majority.
The Tories are generally polling 10% above what they polled in 2015 if the polls are to be believed whilst the Lib Dems are still stuck in that rut.
The local elections showed the Conservatives polling no better than in the 2015GE , they will add 3-4% to that on past history , the Lib Dems polled 7-8% higher than in the GE , that is likely to be 3-4% lower . Despite all the forecasts of Labour meltdown it did not happen . Carry on believing the polls if you want .
You know, it'd be a pity for the LDs to lose Clegg. He would probably do better than Farron with the public if he ever had another shot at leading.
Clegg losing could be one of the few highlights of election night. Please, pretty please, let it happen.
So he can be replaced by some Tory no mark ?
It's an odd thing to wish for, particularly from a poster I consider on the left.
To be honest, I would gladly give this seat to the Tories to defeat Clegg. He is one of the two people that have killed progressive politics in this country.
I wonder if anyone knows the answer to this mos unlikely scenario. Say if not a single person casts a vote, literally not a single one anywhere including the candidates themselves. Who would be our MP's? Does any one know the answer to this constitutional problem?
I wonder if anyone knows the answer to this mos unlikely scenario. Say if not a single person casts a vote, literally not a single one anywhere including the candidates themselves. Who would be our MP's? Does any one know the answer to this constitutional problem?
I wonder if anyone knows the answer to this mos unlikely scenario. Say if not a single person casts a vote, literally not a single one anywhere including the candidates themselves. Who would be our MP's? Does any one know the answer to this constitutional problem?
It seems straws. There was a local by-election decided as such.
You know, it'd be a pity for the LDs to lose Clegg. He would probably do better than Farron with the public if he ever had another shot at leading.
Clegg losing could be one of the few highlights of election night. Please, pretty please, let it happen.
So he can be replaced by some Tory no mark ?
It's an odd thing to wish for, particularly from a poster I consider on the left.
To be honest, I would gladly give this seat to the Tories to defeat Clegg. He is one of the two people that have killed progressive politics in this country.
I don't know what 'progressive politics' means. It seems to get used a lot by quite extreme parties sometimes to argue they are somehow more palatable to a centrist leaning voter than a moderate candidate of the centre left or, gasp, centre right.
Is it solely a calculation based on social policies? Anti-austerity?
Remain - overwhelmingly the left and the Blairite faction - really brought this upon themselves by constantly talking the country down and exaggerating the problems people faced.
This gets to the heart of why I am so appalled at what is happening and dismayed by the way it is interpreted by many middle-of-the-road Tories. Too many people view Brexit in terms of a rebellion against the Blair years, and while he was responsible for a lot of mistakes, sabotaging the strategic position of the entire nation just to get your own back for having 'the right's nose rubbed in diversity' is sinking to their level of juvenile politics.
The EU, and our relationship with it, is more important than that and anyone who thinks they've got one over on 'the left' needs to wake up, and remind themselves why it was the Conservatives who always understood that this country needs to be at the heart of Europe.
When Macmillan tried to place Britain at the heart of Europe De Gaulle said a clear 'non', which I think set the tone for our future relationship with the EEC/EU
I wonder if anyone knows the answer to this mos unlikely scenario. Say if not a single person casts a vote, literally not a single one anywhere including the candidates themselves. Who would be our MP's? Does any one know the answer to this constitutional problem?
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
Delusion has set in amongst Conservative posters on here . They think they are going to overturn any seat whatever the majority .
The regional polling still isn't matching up with the national polling.
Take the London poll today. Good for Labour, they're only down 2 points. But a lot of national polls have had Labour only down 1 point or on the same 31% they got at GE2015. Given that almost everyone accepts London is the best region for Labour these days, it's strange that their vote in London is down by more than overall with some of those recent polls. In other words, you'd think that down 2 points in London would equate to down 5 or 6 points overall.
Remain - overwhelmingly the left and the Blairite faction - really brought this upon themselves by constantly talking the country down and exaggerating the problems people faced.
This gets to the heart of why I am so appalled at what is happening and dismayed by the way it is interpreted by many middle-of-the-road Tories. Too many people view Brexit in terms of a rebellion against the Blair years, and while he was responsible for a lot of mistakes, sabotaging the strategic position of the entire nation just to get your own back for having 'the right's nose rubbed in diversity' is sinking to their level of juvenile politics.
The EU, and our relationship with it, is more important than that and anyone who thinks they've got one over on 'the left' needs to wake up, and remind themselves why it was the Conservatives who always understood that this country needs to be at the heart of Europe.
When Macmillan tried to place Britain at the heart of Europe De Gaulle said a clear 'non', which I think set the tone for our future relationship with the EEC/EU
In a similar way, are you going to let a rebuke from a long dead French statesman cloud your judgement forever more about our national interest? That's insanity.
The regional polling still isn't matching up with the national polling.
Take the London poll today. Good for Labour, they're only down 2 points. But a lot of national polls have had Labour only down 1 point or on the same 31% they got at GE2015. Given that almost everyone accepts London is the best region for Labour these days, it's strange that their vote in London is down by more than overall with some of those recent polls. In other words, you'd think that down 2 points in London would equate to down 5 or 6 points overall.
It would appear that despite everything Lab just aren't really down by that much, and its more a case of the Tories rising?
Remain - overwhelmingly the left and the Blairite faction - really brought this upon themselves by constantly talking the country down and exaggerating the problems people faced.
This gets to the heart of why I am so appalled at what is happening and dismayed by the way it is interpreted by many middle-of-the-road Tories. Too many people view Brexit in terms of a rebellion against the Blair years, and while he was responsible for a lot of mistakes, sabotaging the strategic position of the entire nation just to get your own back for having 'the right's nose rubbed in diversity' is sinking to their level of juvenile politics.
The EU, and our relationship with it, is more important than that and anyone who thinks they've got one over on 'the left' needs to wake up, and remind themselves why it was the Conservatives who always understood that this country needs to be at the heart of Europe.
When Macmillan tried to place Britain at the heart of Europe De Gaulle said a clear 'non', which I think set the tone for our future relationship with the EEC/EU
De Gaulle was doing us a favour, if only we'd had eyes to see it.
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
Delusion has set in amongst Conservative posters on here . They think they are going to overturn any seat whatever the majority .
That may be so, but you constantly talk up LD chances, and fact is they have underperformed plenty of times, so everyone gets things wrong. Tories are getting overexcited - and it is worth remembering they would have been happy with 60 ish majority when things started, and 5 SCON seats - and may be in for a fall, but ramping is not a uniquely Tory trait. Given my own history of overestimating Lab and LD, and underestimating CON, I'm resolved to try to do less of all three.
I said on day 1 a 50 + seat majority would be fine. Anything which keeps Corbyn as Lab leader is fine by me. I now expect a bigger majority but would be content at 60+ and thrilled if the Scons get 4/5.
You know, it'd be a pity for the LDs to lose Clegg. He would probably do better than Farron with the public if he ever had another shot at leading.
Clegg losing could be one of the few highlights of election night. Please, pretty please, let it happen.
So he can be replaced by some Tory no mark ?
It's an odd thing to wish for, particularly from a poster I consider on the left.
To be honest, I would gladly give this seat to the Tories to defeat Clegg. He is one of the two people that have killed progressive politics in this country.
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
It was said 3,000 Tories voted tactically for Clegg last time.
That 14k majority becomes an 8k majority.
The Tories are generally polling 10% above what they polled in 2015 if the polls are to be believed whilst the Lib Dems are still stuck in that rut.
Indeed that makes sense. The Tories fell considerably in Hallam didn't they which indicates they tactically went to save their ally from the reds?
Will the reds this time return the favour and vote tactically to save Clegg from the Tories? I'm not convinced.
Remain - overwhelmingly the left and the Blairite faction - really brought this upon themselves by constantly talking the country down and exaggerating the problems people faced.
This gets to the heart of why I am so appalled at what is happening and dismayed by the way it is interpreted by many middle-of-the-road Tories. Too many people view Brexit in terms of a rebellion against the Blair years, and while he was responsible for a lot of mistakes, sabotaging the strategic position of the entire nation just to get your own back for having 'the right's nose rubbed in diversity' is sinking to their level of juvenile politics.
The EU, and our relationship with it, is more important than that and anyone who thinks they've got one over on 'the left' needs to wake up, and remind themselves why it was the Conservatives who always understood that this country needs to be at the heart of Europe.
When Macmillan tried to place Britain at the heart of Europe De Gaulle said a clear 'non', which I think set the tone for our future relationship with the EEC/EU
De Gaulle was doing us a favour, if only we'd had eyes to see it.
Yes he recognised we were on the periphery of Europe along with Scandinavia, Russia and Turkey, never at its heart
The regional polling still isn't matching up with the national polling.
Take the London poll today. Good for Labour, they're only down 2 points. But a lot of national polls have had Labour only down 1 point or on the same 31% they got at GE2015. Given that almost everyone accepts London is the best region for Labour these days, it's strange that their vote in London is down by more than overall with some of those recent polls. In other words, you'd think that down 2 points in London would equate to down 5 or 6 points overall.
It would appear that despite everything Lab just aren't really down by that much, and its more a case of the Tories rising?
It's the leadership ratings that appear to be telling a different story. They certainly point in the direction of big Labour losses. I also feel the Tories are saving up their anti-Corbyn ammo for the mother of all salvos in the last week.
Remain - overwhelmingly the left and the Blairite faction - really brought this upon themselves by constantly talking the country down and exaggerating the problems people faced.
This gets to the heart of why I am so appalled at what is happening and dismayed by the way it is interpreted by many middle-of-the-road Tories. Too many people view Brexit in terms of a rebellion against the Blair years, and while he was responsible for a lot of mistakes, sabotaging the strategic position of the entire nation just to get your own back for having 'the right's nose rubbed in diversity' is sinking to their level of juvenile politics.
The EU, and our relationship with it, is more important than that and anyone who thinks they've got one over on 'the left' needs to wake up, and remind themselves why it was the Conservatives who always understood that this country needs to be at the heart of Europe.
When Macmillan tried to place Britain at the heart of Europe De Gaulle said a clear 'non', which I think set the tone for our future relationship with the EEC/EU
In a similar way, are you going to let a rebuke from a long dead French statesman cloud your judgement forever more about our national interest? That's insanity.
In retrospect Dr Gaulle was right, we should have stayed in EFTA and not bothered with the EEC
I am immensely dispirited at attitudes that condemn coalitions even at local levels between parties that nationally are bitter enemies. There will be issues parties will disagree on locally, but working together for the good of the local community should be a lot easier than doing so nationally, and no side should rule it out or condemn it in opponents when it happens, that's putting national politics above local concerns.
I want unionist parties, all of them, to make gains from the SNP at Westminster, and I'd prefer, as a unionist, a lot of unionist cllrs, but if the numbers stack up the way they do sometimes, dealing with the SNP might be a necessary thing. Is it there? Perhaps not, but the mere fact of it is not betrayal worthy surely?
Someone give me the switch model that sees Clegg in trouble ?!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
It's the LDs under a different leader. I know people generally disagree, but Clegg is a substantial politician. The LD's, just at the moment, don't exist beyond him. Clegg can (and perhaps will) lose his seat because he isn't at the helm. Equally Farron might (just might) lose his seat because Clegg isn't the leader.
Yes yes I get all that but why is Clegg going to uniquely lose a 14,000 majority over the Tories.
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
It was said 3,000 Tories voted tactically for Clegg last time.
That 14k majority becomes an 8k majority.
The Tories are generally polling 10% above what they polled in 2015 if the polls are to be believed whilst the Lib Dems are still stuck in that rut.
Indeed that makes sense. The Tories fell considerably in Hallam didn't they which indicates they tactically went to save their ally from the reds?
Will the reds this time return the favour and vote tactically to save Clegg from the Tories? I'm not convinced.
I actually think there's a good chance Labour could win this one.
You know, it'd be a pity for the LDs to lose Clegg. He would probably do better than Farron with the public if he ever had another shot at leading.
Clegg losing could be one of the few highlights of election night. Please, pretty please, let it happen.
So he can be replaced by some Tory no mark ?
It's an odd thing to wish for, particularly from a poster I consider on the left.
To be honest, I would gladly give this seat to the Tories to defeat Clegg. He is one of the two people that have killed progressive politics in this country.
I wonder if anyone knows the answer to this mos unlikely scenario. Say if not a single person casts a vote, literally not a single one anywhere including the candidates themselves. Who would be our MP's? Does any one know the answer to this constitutional problem?
The regional polling still isn't matching up with the national polling.
Take the London poll today. Good for Labour, they're only down 2 points. But a lot of national polls have had Labour only down 1 point or on the same 31% they got at GE2015. Given that almost everyone accepts London is the best region for Labour these days, it's strange that their vote in London is down by more than overall with some of those recent polls. In other words, you'd think that down 2 points in London would equate to down 5 or 6 points overall.
It looks as though they will do a bit better in the South, collecting Greens and it appears some Lib Dems, and maybe that is offsetting the losses elsewhere in the overall number.
Remain - overwhelmingly the left and the Blairite faction - really brought this upon themselves by constantly talking the country down and exaggerating the problems people faced.
This gets to the heart of why I am so appalled at what is happening and dismayed by the way it is interpreted by many middle-of-the-road Tories. Too many people view Brexit in terms of a rebellion against the Blair years, and while he was responsible for a lot of mistakes, sabotaging the strategic position of the entire nation just to get your own back for having 'the right's nose rubbed in diversity' is sinking to their level of juvenile politics.
The EU, and our relationship with it, is more important than that and anyone who thinks they've got one over on 'the left' needs to wake up, and remind themselves why it was the Conservatives who always understood that this country needs to be at the heart of Europe.
When Macmillan tried to place Britain at the heart of Europe De Gaulle said a clear 'non', which I think set the tone for our future relationship with the EEC/EU
In a similar way, are you going to let a rebuke from a long dead French statesman cloud your judgement forever more about our national interest? That's insanity.
I wonder if anyone knows the answer to this mos unlikely scenario. Say if not a single person casts a vote, literally not a single one anywhere including the candidates themselves. Who would be our MP's? Does any one know the answer to this constitutional problem?
You know, it'd be a pity for the LDs to lose Clegg. He would probably do better than Farron with the public if he ever had another shot at leading.
Clegg losing could be one of the few highlights of election night. Please, pretty please, let it happen.
So he can be replaced by some Tory no mark ?
It's an odd thing to wish for, particularly from a poster I consider on the left.
To be honest, I would gladly give this seat to the Tories to defeat Clegg. He is one of the two people that have killed progressive politics in this country.
Who was the other?
I wish it was me, but that honour must go to someone like Dominic Cummings or Nigel Farage.
I wonder if anyone knows the answer to this mos unlikely scenario. Say if not a single person casts a vote, literally not a single one anywhere including the candidates themselves. Who would be our MP's? Does any one know the answer to this constitutional problem?
Lots are drawn then.
That could be a lot of fun
I hope you haven't taken off your coat.
If there were zero votes cast, then all the odd ball candidates would be in with a shout.
Remain - overwhelmingly the left and the Blairite faction - really brought this upon themselves by constantly talking the country down and exaggerating the problems people faced.
This gets to the heart of why I am so appalled at what is happening and dismayed by the way it is interpreted by many middle-of-the-road Tories. Too many people view Brexit in terms of a rebellion against the Blair years, and while he was responsible for a lot of mistakes, sabotaging the strategic position of the entire nation just to get your own back for having 'the right's nose rubbed in diversity' is sinking to their level of juvenile politics.
The EU, and our relationship with it, is more important than that and anyone who thinks they've got one over on 'the left' needs to wake up, and remind themselves why it was the Conservatives who always understood that this country needs to be at the heart of Europe.
When Macmillan tried to place Britain at the heart of Europe De Gaulle said a clear 'non', which I think set the tone for our future relationship with the EEC/EU
In a similar way, are you going to let a rebuke from a long dead French statesman cloud your judgement forever more about our national interest? That's insanity.
De Gaulle was right.
De Gaulle wasn't any more right than Anthony Eden. It's preposterous sycophancy to imagine that the definitive view on Britain's role in Europe was given by Charles De Gaulle.
No problem with antisemetism in the labour party, they had an investigation and everything...
The Corbynista co-chair of Manchester Labour Students has been forced to resign after it was revealed he claimed “Hitler was Jewish” and compared Israel to ISIS. Tayyib Nawaz, a psychology student at Manchester Metropolitan University, posted a series of tweets last year which are remarkably grim even by the standards of recent Labour anti-Semitism scandals.
Remain - overwhelmingly the left and the Blairite faction - really brought this upon themselves by constantly talking the country down and exaggerating the problems people faced.
This gets to the heart of why I am so appalled at what is happening and dismayed by the way it is interpreted by many middle-of-the-road Tories. Too many people view Brexit in terms of a rebellion against the Blair years, and while he was responsible for a lot of mistakes, sabotaging the strategic position of the entire nation just to get your own back for having 'the right's nose rubbed in diversity' is sinking to their level of juvenile politics.
The EU, and our relationship with it, is more important than that and anyone who thinks they've got one over on 'the left' needs to wake up, and remind themselves why it was the Conservatives who always understood that this country needs to be at the heart of Europe.
When Macmillan tried to place Britain at the heart of Europe De Gaulle said a clear 'non', which I think set the tone for our future relationship with the EEC/EU
In a similar way, are you going to let a rebuke from a long dead French statesman cloud your judgement forever more about our national interest? That's insanity.
De Gaulle was right.
De Gaulle wasn't any more right than Anthony Eden. It's preposterous sycophancy to imagine that the definitive view on Britain's role in Europe was given by Charles De Gaulle.
Of the 6 original EEC members, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands all are still in the EU and in the Eurozone too. Of the 7 original EFTA members Norway and Switzerland and the UK are not in the EU or leaving it, Sweden and Denmark are not in the Eurozone and only Austria and Portugal in the EU and Eurozone, Dr Gaulle recognised the future direction of Europe even in the 1960s
The regional polling still isn't matching up with the national polling.
Take the London poll today. Good for Labour, they're only down 2 points. But a lot of national polls have had Labour only down 1 point or on the same 31% they got at GE2015. Given that almost everyone accepts London is the best region for Labour these days, it's strange that their vote in London is down by more than overall with some of those recent polls. In other words, you'd think that down 2 points in London would equate to down 5 or 6 points overall.
It would appear that despite everything Lab just aren't really down by that much, and its more a case of the Tories rising?
Possibly. But it would be strange if Labour are doing better in, say, the West Midlands than London. But they must be doing better in some of these regions in order for today's London poll and the national polls to make sense. I'm just not sure where it could be: not Wales or Scotland going by the latest polling.
See Shadsy has Worsley and Eccles South as a toss up 5/6 Labour 5/6 Con (Cllr Lindley, a PBer)
Surprised me. Any thoughts ?
Worsley & Eccles South is no.69 on the Con target list, with a Labour majority of just over 14%. However, it also has a very high Ukip vote, and any seat where the 2015 Ukip vote exceeded the Labour majority has to be considered at least potentially in play.
If we were to assign half of the 2015 Ukip vote to the Tories, then Labour would go into this election with a notional majority of 5%.
The regional polling still isn't matching up with the national polling.
Take the London poll today. Good for Labour, they're only down 2 points. But a lot of national polls have had Labour only down 1 point or on the same 31% they got at GE2015. Given that almost everyone accepts London is the best region for Labour these days, it's strange that their vote in London is down by more than overall with some of those recent polls. In other words, you'd think that down 2 points in London would equate to down 5 or 6 points overall.
It would appear that despite everything Lab just aren't really down by that much, and its more a case of the Tories rising?
Possibly. But it would be strange if Labour are doing better in, say, the West Midlands than London. But they must be doing better in some of these regions in order for today's London poll and the national polls to make sense. I'm just not sure where it could be: not Wales or Scotland going by the latest polling.
Or perhaps we aren't heading for polling disaster inquiry mark II.
OT. This must be the weakest shadow cabinet in living memory. Every spokesperson makes you cringe. I'm not sure they were brains of Britain before the mass resignations but since they've become a horror show.
OT. This must be the weakest shadow cabinet in living memory. Every spokesperson makes you cringe. I'm not sure they were brains of Britain before the mass resignations but since they've become a horror show.
Comments
1) He's not going to win power;
2) He's not, in the vanishingly unlikely event the national electorate has a collective brain fade and he gets into power, going to lay off hundreds of workers merely because they happen to making their livelihoods by selling arms to the Saudis to kill lots of people in Yemen. Why do you think he's soft-pedalling his opposition to Trident?
I would add there's a certain irony in Corbyn being concerned about the Yemenis when he hasn't always been so concerned to avoid those causing bloodshed in the Middle East...
http://www.southportvisiter.co.uk/news/southport-news/southport-greens-drop-out-general-13016815
I'm not even backing generally against Labour no hopers with that much of a margin.
The extent of the legal (not Congressional) investigations into Trump personally are becoming clear. A huge amount of effort is being put in to following money.
No denying Donald's decisiveness, Comey made it known to the White House that he'd have to be fired as he wasn't going to drop the many many lines of investigation. And there are so many lines its potentially like whack-a-mole from Trump.
Clegg knows what needs to be said when asked if it's okay to stick objects up another gentleman's bottom.
I don't disagree for a moment with your thoughts.
PS I may possibly have used 'fanboy' incorrectly. I make no apologies.
That 14k majority becomes an 8k majority.
The Tories are generally polling 10% above what they polled in 2015 if the polls are to be believed whilst the Lib Dems are still stuck in that rut.
I feel for Clegg - while many will have thought it just the LDs got hammered under his leadership, it does feel like the voters were unduly harsh, and it looks like it has as much chance of getting worse now as better, and yet even though he is the best of the bunch, his history as leader means he cannot take them forward.
Probably...
It's an odd thing to wish for, particularly from a poster I consider on the left.
Is it solely a calculation based on social policies? Anti-austerity?
That's based on a projection of
CON 398
LAB 167
L DEM 7
UKIP 0
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PLAID 4
OTHER 1
Take the London poll today. Good for Labour, they're only down 2 points. But a lot of national polls have had Labour only down 1 point or on the same 31% they got at GE2015. Given that almost everyone accepts London is the best region for Labour these days, it's strange that their vote in London is down by more than overall with some of those recent polls. In other words, you'd think that down 2 points in London would equate to down 5 or 6 points overall.
Will the reds this time return the favour and vote tactically to save Clegg from the Tories? I'm not convinced.
I want unionist parties, all of them, to make gains from the SNP at Westminster, and I'd prefer, as a unionist, a lot of unionist cllrs, but if the numbers stack up the way they do sometimes, dealing with the SNP might be a necessary thing. Is it there? Perhaps not, but the mere fact of it is not betrayal worthy surely?
That's one of the roasters who's said he's going to take up arms in a civil war, isn't it?
Yoons, eh? What are they* like.
*you
Veteran jeered at corbyn rally
https://order-order.com/2017/05/10/267197/
The Corbynista co-chair of Manchester Labour Students has been forced to resign after it was revealed he claimed “Hitler was Jewish” and compared Israel to ISIS. Tayyib Nawaz, a psychology student at Manchester Metropolitan University, posted a series of tweets last year which are remarkably grim even by the standards of recent Labour anti-Semitism scandals.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/yoonies15.jpg
Surprised me. Any thoughts ?
Aww sorry flower, never realised you were so delicate.
If we were to assign half of the 2015 Ukip vote to the Tories, then Labour would go into this election with a notional majority of 5%.
I'm sure everyone usually says that - they just disagree when options have been exhausted.