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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Local election debrief, Gene
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Local election debrief, General Election forecasting & public opinion on a Tory landslide
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Steve Fisher from Oxford University. Steve runs the elections website https://electionsetc.com/ and is part of the team that produces the General Election exit poll.
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On-topic: was actually listening to this before the new thread started.
Really enjoyed this podcast.
IS AN ABSOLUTE MUST HEAR
But I wonder. The QT special, I believe, is in York. Does that apply to the Farron-Sturgeon one too?
We've been topped and tailed!
She's certainly done everything she can to disassociate herself from him since, including ignoring his 3 line whip on the Article 50 vote.
It's not perfect, but I'd be inclined to operate on the basis of the previous election, just because it's least susceptible to bias even if it would lead to some quirky coverage results.
Edited extra bit: Mr. D, that would perhaps make more sense.
Edited extra bit: cheers, Mr. L (above).
How many jobs would this cost?
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/862355961020899328
Don't get me wrong - this is far from a space filling article. But I bet Mike had a joy laden thread lined up about how 30 arrests were about to accelerate the already completely happening LibDem suuurge.
I'm sure Mike will be discussing the CPS decision in the next few days.
Not a clue about the real world and how it works.
https://order-order.com/2017/05/10/danczuk-standing-independent/
Will he have a black ties and armband?
Kinnock accused Liverpool Labour/Militant of starting with promises you cannot keep, pickling them into a rigid dogma and ending in grotesque chaos.
Corbyn started with grotesque chaos, has pickled that into a rigid dogma and is now providing policies he cannot keep.
https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/861891826286030849
Some vicars daughter perhaps should study the Gospels a little more closely.
It is particularly absurd to supply the starving Yemenis with food, and similtaneously supply their oppressors with bombs. Can anyone forsee that ending well?
It really doesn't take much of a leap of the imagination for people to then ask, "well, why are you letting in hundreds of thousands of people every year if there isn't enough to go round?"
I think the role of the left, especially Labour, in creating the psychological environment for Brexit has been greatly underestimated.
We have a bunch of people among us who have spent years telling everyone that everything is rubbish. The voters took them at their word and have demanded change and now they are sobbing into their frappuccinos.
Remain - overwhelmingly the left and the Blairite faction - really brought this upon themselves by constantly talking the country down in the years preceding the campaign and exaggerating the problems people faced.
Also correct that LD hopes are being dampened daily.
Not something you see everyday.
The EU, and our relationship with it, is more important than that and anyone who thinks they've got one over on 'the left' needs to wake up, and remind themselves why it was the Conservatives who always understood that this country needs to be at the heart of Europe.
I gather Angela Rayner had a car crash on Labour's education policy today, such as it is. Apparently some confusion over the detail (you would have thought she would have learned her lesson after she was shown up for not knowing most primary schools don't have adequate kitchens).
She has been tipped in the past as a possible future leader along with Rebecca Long Bailey and Cat Smith. I don't know why because they're all pretty unimpressive, but I suppose they are only being compared to Corbyn. Cat Smith will of course lose her seat, so she's out, but I'm wondering about Rayner as well. She sort of held her vote last time, but there was a huge leakage to UKIP masked by the collapse of the large Liberal Democrat vote. If 75% of UKIP switched to Blue plus Lib Dem wanderers returned home, she might just be in trouble - it wouldn't take many abstentions or direct switchers to sink her.
And if she is put out into the firing line like this so local voters see and hear their MP behaving like a innumerate moron - that isn't going to help matters.
In theory Salford and Eccles might be the same, but there the UKIP and Tory combined vote is much further back and there is a substantial Green vote as well. Sadly I think Long-Bailey will survive into the next Parliament.
They're in danger of talking themselves too far into the opposite corner, where - after the election - they'll have to defend some very uncomfortable positions.
That low hanging fruit labour are dangling in front of you is poisoned.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/862303431993765889
Zero.
As each day passes, it's looking more like LDs 5-9 rather than 10-14
STILL don't have a clue that those on the Battle-bus had to pay £50 a day for their own accommodation.... Ditto Salmond.
Half the current LD seats look at risk, some seriously. 10 would be a fortunate result, on current trends.
The constant ramping and talking up of Conservative prospects in no hope seats held by Labour and Lib Dems is a joy to behold . I hope you have not wasted loads of money backing your ramping ,
LD's 1.15-3 currently.
https://brignews.com/2017/05/10/new-councillor-embroiled-in-twitter-troll-controversy-talked-out-of-resigning-at-last-second/
Did you follow me when I advised PBers to buy the Tories at 378?
Now mid price 402!
I don't buy it, however I do think Lamb & Brake & Southport are in serious trouble.
What's happened IMHO in the last few weeks is that Corbyn has come out with policies that have gone down very badly with the good people of Sheffield Hallam.
The tax rise for people over 80k and the mansion tax.
The constituency is one of the wealthiest in the country.
It also has several top bods from the Unis who aren't impressed with Corbynistas in general and I know they voted Lib Dem last time because of Clegg's supporting tuition fees.
I called Hallam right last time, I think Clegg might win, but it ain't the slam dunk people think it is.