See Shadsy has Worsley and Eccles South as a toss up 5/6 Labour 5/6 Con (Cllr Lindley, a PBer)
Surprised me. Any thoughts ?
Worsley & Eccles South is no.69 on the Con target list, with a Labour majority of just over 14%. However, it also has a very high Ukip vote, and any seat where the 2015 Ukip vote exceeded the Labour majority has to be considered at least potentially in play.
If we were to assign half of the 2015 Ukip vote to the Tories, then Labour would go into this election with a notional majority of 5%.
That 50% maths assumes the "gateway drug" theory that Sir Norfolk was advocating earlier. I'm sceptical that it applies in Lancashire mill/mining towns where there will be a real cultural resistance in some parts to actually vote Conservative, even if they agreed on Brexit, Diane Abbot etc etc.
Editors have fun picking photos for stories, don't they?
'A Labour source warned it is "Ed Miliband's manifesto with hard left hundreds and thousands sprinkled on top".'
That really harsh on ed miliband...He had some policies that I don't think were a good idea (one of which may is copying) but it wasn't batshit insane like team twats effort.
It's less magic money tree and more magic money forrest
"The Labour leader also refuses to set a target to cut immigration and instead pledges to scrap rules that force migrants to prove they have enough money to live and work in the UK before they are allowed into the country."
Not exactly a heartfelt appeal to the old WWC is it? I may have to revise my estimate of the Ukip-to-Con defection rate up from a half to two-thirds...
Honestly, given how extreme Corbyn appears, by comparison it doesn't really shock me, this supposed manifesto. The Tories have already prepared me for anything, up to full on communism.
He's not had a terrible start to his campaign really - especially as compared to his shadow cabinet/
I feel really sorry for the sensible labour MPs who live in reality. They are going to have to try and defend this shit....I can't imagine cooper balls believes in most of the stuff in this leak.
Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first. ... We will end Theresa May’s reckless approach to Brexit, and seek to unite the country round a Brexit deal that works for every community in Britain
Unless there's some crucial words in the '...', that tells me nothing at all. I cannot wait to see if the Con manifesto is as similarly bland and meaningless on the point!
See Shadsy has Worsley and Eccles South as a toss up 5/6 Labour 5/6 Con (Cllr Lindley, a PBer)
Surprised me. Any thoughts ?
Worsley & Eccles South is no.69 on the Con target list, with a Labour majority of just over 14%. However, it also has a very high Ukip vote, and any seat where the 2015 Ukip vote exceeded the Labour majority has to be considered at least potentially in play.
If we were to assign half of the 2015 Ukip vote to the Tories, then Labour would go into this election with a notional majority of 5%.
The Tories will probably underperform in Greater Manchester. Like Merseyide (though not to the same degree) the trend is leftward.
Nuclear weapons: Keep Trident. "Labour supports the renewal of the Trident submarine system. But any prime minister should be extremely cautious about ordering the use of weapons of mass destruction which would result in the indiscriminate killing of millions of innocent civilians
Oh come on, what a pointless clarification! I'm sure all other parties supporting Trident don't think being cautious about using it is a good idea.
I feel really sorry for the sensible labour MPs who live in reality. They are going to have to try and defend this shit....I can't imagine cooper balls believes in most of the stuff in this leak.
Maybe they should stand by their principles and do something about it then.
I have no sympathy for MPs that stood by and did nothing after their No Confidence motion failed to remove him and he was re-elected again. The party should have split then.
Corbyn after facing down his rebels who no confidenced him and has twice been elected has every right and mandate to put his manifesto to the public and be judged accordingly.
The MPs who chose they'd rather be led by Corbyn than leave the comfort blanket of the Labour Party can also be judged accordingly.
OT. This must be the weakest shadow cabinet in living memory. Every spokesperson makes you cringe. I'm not sure they were brains of Britain before the mass resignations but since they've become a horror show.
They're missing the Scottish mafia.
They're certainly missing the ex shadow secretary of state for Scotland who was excellent
Nuclear weapons: Keep Trident. "Labour supports the renewal of the Trident submarine system. But any prime minister should be extremely cautious about ordering the use of weapons of mass destruction which would result in the indiscriminate killing of millions of innocent civilians
Oh come on, what a pointless clarification! I'm sure all other parties supporting Trident don't think being cautious about using it is a good idea.
It's ridiculous to even pretend to suggest that JC might fire it. We all know, rightly or wrongly, that would never happen. And he's the one who would have the decision.
This was my recipe from last Friday: Advice to Labour from a former Tory spin doctor, for what it's worth. http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/labour-not-corbyn Sensible Labour need to seize the opportunity after close of nominations tomorrow... if they don't, they're toast.
Nuclear weapons: Keep Trident. "Labour supports the renewal of the Trident submarine system. But any prime minister should be extremely cautious about ordering the use of weapons of mass destruction which would result in the indiscriminate killing of millions of innocent civilians
Oh come on, what a pointless clarification! I'm sure all other parties supporting Trident don't think being cautious about using it is a good idea.
It's ridiculous to even pretend to suggest that JC might fire it. We all know, rightly or wrongly, that would never happen. And he's the one who would have the decision.
Yes, he may as well put his Letter of Last Resort on Facebook.
See Shadsy has Worsley and Eccles South as a toss up 5/6 Labour 5/6 Con (Cllr Lindley, a PBer)
Surprised me. Any thoughts ?
Worsley & Eccles South is no.69 on the Con target list, with a Labour majority of just over 14%. However, it also has a very high Ukip vote, and any seat where the 2015 Ukip vote exceeded the Labour majority has to be considered at least potentially in play.
If we were to assign half of the 2015 Ukip vote to the Tories, then Labour would go into this election with a notional majority of 5%.
The Tories will probably underperform in Greater Manchester. Like Merseyide (though not to the same degree) the trend is leftward.
I have Worsley at seat 394 and Wirral South at seat 395 personally. Am on Wirral South at a ludicrous 8-1 for Labour with Paddy.
I feel really sorry for the sensible labour MPs who live in reality. They are going to have to try and defend this shit....I can't imagine cooper balls believes in most of the stuff in this leak.
they wont.. I heard a Labour MP on R5 live saying he cannot mention Corbyn on the doorstep for fear of being laughed at. Left on his own by Labour HQ, in a marginal....
I wonder if anyone knows the answer to this mos unlikely scenario. Say if not a single person casts a vote, literally not a single one anywhere including the candidates themselves. Who would be our MP's? Does any one know the answer to this constitutional problem?
Lots are drawn then.
That could be a lot of fun
I hope you haven't taken off your coat.
If there were zero votes cast, then all the odd ball candidates would be in with a shout.
I feel really sorry for the sensible labour MPs who live in reality. They are going to have to try and defend this shit....I can't imagine cooper balls believes in most of the stuff in this leak.
they wont.. I heard a Labour MP on R5 live saying he cannot mention Corbyn on the doorstep for fear of being laughed at. Left on his own by Labour HQ, in a marginal....
Well the polls say the voters are willing to stick with them as much as 2015, perhaps in part because there seems so little chance of Corbyn becoming PM, so some surprising ones may be saved.
Apparently they are going to claim all this 70s left wingery will be fully paid for by simple increase in corporation and inheritance tax....Yeah course it will.
I wonder if anyone knows the answer to this mos unlikely scenario. Say if not a single person casts a vote, literally not a single one anywhere including the candidates themselves. Who would be our MP's? Does any one know the answer to this constitutional problem?
Lots are drawn then.
That could be a lot of fun
I hope you haven't taken off your coat.
If there were zero votes cast, then all the odd ball candidates would be in with a shout.
I think Tim Farron will keep his seat regardless.
In all seriousness I make him a fair bit more vulnerable than Clegg.
Apparently they are going to claim all this 70s left wingery will be fully paid for by simple increase in corporation and inheritance tax....Yeah course it will.
OT. This must be the weakest shadow cabinet in living memory. Every spokesperson makes you cringe. I'm not sure they were brains of Britain before the mass resignations but since they've become a horror show.
I heard Angela Rayner use lickle instead of little and Pacific instead of specific in a Radio 4 interview. She is now shadow education secretary. Rolls eyes.
Apparently they are going to claim all this 70s left wingery will be fully paid for by simple increase in corporation and inheritance tax....Yeah course it will.
Borrow big, spend big. It's a valid platform.
Speaking at Leeds community college alongside the shadow education secretary Angela Rayner, Corbyn said: “You’ll have to wait for the manifesto. I know you’re desperate for it and I’ve got some stuff in my pocket, but, sorry, I’m not allowed to give it to you. Is that alright? Do you mind? Can you cope with the excitement?”
That's actually pretty funny, albeit easy to do when preaching to the converted.
I feel really sorry for the sensible labour MPs who live in reality. They are going to have to try and defend this shit....I can't imagine cooper balls believes in most of the stuff in this leak.
they wont.. I heard a Labour MP on R5 live saying he cannot mention Corbyn on the doorstep for fear of being laughed at. Left on his own by Labour HQ, in a marginal....
Well the polls say the voters are willing to stick with them as much as 2015, perhaps in part because there seems so little chance of Corbyn becoming PM, so some surprising ones may be saved.
Possibly but more likely swept away in a Tsunami of votes to kick Corbyn as hard as possible. That is the best insurance for Labour. Corbyn crucified at the polls and Labour rebuild after he has gone or failing that in a new party,,, aptly named New New Labour
I feel really sorry for the sensible labour MPs who live in reality. They are going to have to try and defend this shit....I can't imagine cooper balls believes in most of the stuff in this leak.
they wont.. I heard a Labour MP on R5 live saying he cannot mention Corbyn on the doorstep for fear of being laughed at. Left on his own by Labour HQ, in a marginal....
Well the polls say the voters are willing to stick with them as much as 2015, perhaps in part because there seems so little chance of Corbyn becoming PM, so some surprising ones may be saved.
I feel really sorry for the sensible labour MPs who live in reality. They are going to have to try and defend this shit....I can't imagine cooper balls believes in most of the stuff in this leak.
they wont.. I heard a Labour MP on R5 live saying he cannot mention Corbyn on the doorstep for fear of being laughed at. Left on his own by Labour HQ, in a marginal....
Well the polls say the voters are willing to stick with them as much as 2015, perhaps in part because there seems so little chance of Corbyn becoming PM, so some surprising ones may be saved.
I remain to be convinced. It's one thing to think: "gee, that JC is a right prat, but I like my local Labour MP so I'll hold my nose and send a vote Labour's way" to actually turn that into a motivation on polling day to troop down to your polling station and actually do it.
Apparently they are going to claim all this 70s left wingery will be fully paid for by simple increase in corporation and inheritance tax....Yeah course it will.
Some populist measures in there. I expect a modest Labour bounce after manifesto launch, but will it least till polling day. Time weill tell as ever...
I feel really sorry for the sensible labour MPs who live in reality. They are going to have to try and defend this shit....I can't imagine cooper balls believes in most of the stuff in this leak.
they wont.. I heard a Labour MP on R5 live saying he cannot mention Corbyn on the doorstep for fear of being laughed at. Left on his own by Labour HQ, in a marginal....
Well the polls say the voters are willing to stick with them as much as 2015, perhaps in part because there seems so little chance of Corbyn becoming PM, so some surprising ones may be saved.
I feel really sorry for the sensible labour MPs who live in reality. They are going to have to try and defend this shit....I can't imagine cooper balls believes in most of the stuff in this leak.
they wont.. I heard a Labour MP on R5 live saying he cannot mention Corbyn on the doorstep for fear of being laughed at. Left on his own by Labour HQ, in a marginal....
Well the polls say the voters are willing to stick with them as much as 2015, perhaps in part because there seems so little chance of Corbyn becoming PM, so some surprising ones may be saved.
I remain to be convinced. It's one thing to think: "gee, that JC is a right prat, but I like my local Labour MP so I'll hold my nose and send a vote Labour's way" to actually turn that into a motivation on polling day to troop down to your polling station and actually do it.
I'm sceptical too, but the numbers don't look apocalyptic for Labour, even though they don't look good.
OT. This must be the weakest shadow cabinet in living memory. Every spokesperson makes you cringe. I'm not sure they were brains of Britain before the mass resignations but since they've become a horror show.
I heard Angela Rayner use lickle instead of little and Pacific instead of specific in a Radio 4 interview. She is now shadow education secretary. Rolls eyes.
See Shadsy has Worsley and Eccles South as a toss up 5/6 Labour 5/6 Con (Cllr Lindley, a PBer)
Surprised me. Any thoughts ?
Worsley & Eccles South is no.69 on the Con target list, with a Labour majority of just over 14%. However, it also has a very high Ukip vote, and any seat where the 2015 Ukip vote exceeded the Labour majority has to be considered at least potentially in play.
If we were to assign half of the 2015 Ukip vote to the Tories, then Labour would go into this election with a notional majority of 5%.
The Tories will probably underperform in Greater Manchester. Like Merseyide (though not to the same degree) the trend is leftward.
I have Worsley at seat 394 and Wirral South at seat 395 personally. Am on Wirral South at a ludicrous 8-1 for Labour with Paddy.
I think the areas more at risk will be those with significant new housing development, ties to defence industry / large amounts of veterans, and strong leave areas. In Manchester and area you have to consider influx of media industry to Media city.
It seems like every media organisation has the "scoop". So either it was some idiot at team twat hit reply to all in an email or they have deliberately leaked it.
Apparently they are going to claim all this 70s left wingery will be fully paid for by simple increase in corporation and inheritance tax....Yeah course it will.
Some populist measures in there. I expect a modest Labour bounce after manifesto launch, but will it least till polling day. Time weill tell as ever...
No.
Every party gets a bounce after their manifesto launch where they promise motherhood, apple pie and free money realistic and costed spending proposals paid for by sensible taxation increases on somebody else.
It lasts until the next manifesto is launched. Not a nanosecond longer.
And Labour are currently so far behind that launching policies even their own shadow ministers don't understand (admittedly as @Roger noted upthread, possibly the least distinguished set of nonentities since Derby's Who? Who? Ministry of 1852 and arguably since Pitt's famous first cabinet of 1783 when it was famously said the only notable achievement any of them had was the ability to imbibe vast amounts of alcohol) is not likely to make a sufficient difference to make them a political force again.
Honestly, given how extreme Corbyn appears, by comparison it doesn't really shock me, this supposed manifesto. The Tories have already prepared me for anything, up to full on communism.
He's not had a terrible start to his campaign really - especially as compared to his shadow cabinet/
Renationalizing the industries privatised by Tory Governments since the mid-80s hardly amounts to Communism . The logic of claiming otherwise would imply that Heath - Macmillan - Eden -Churchill et al were dangerous Reds.
Honestly, given how extreme Corbyn appears, by comparison it doesn't really shock me, this supposed manifesto. The Tories have already prepared me for anything, up to full on communism.
He's not had a terrible start to his campaign really - especially as compared to his shadow cabinet/
Renationalizing the industries privatised by Tory Governments since the mid-80s hardly amounts to Communism . The logic of claiming otherwise would imply that Heath - Macmillan - Eden -Churchill et al were dangerous Reds.
Where did I say it amounts to communism? I was saying the Tories have painted Corbyn as so far to the left he could be outright communist in his manifesto and it would not surprise me. That's why i'm not in some state of shock at how left it is or is not, since nothing would shock me based on Tory preparation.
Honestly, given how extreme Corbyn appears, by comparison it doesn't really shock me, this supposed manifesto. The Tories have already prepared me for anything, up to full on communism.
He's not had a terrible start to his campaign really - especially as compared to his shadow cabinet/
Renationalizing the industries privatised by Tory Governments since the mid-80s hardly amounts to Communism . The logic of claiming otherwise would imply that Heath - Macmillan - Eden -Churchill et al were dangerous Reds.
Where did I say it amounts to communism? I was saying the Tories have painted Corbyn as so far to the left he could be outright communist in his manifesto and it would not surprise me. That's why i'm not in some state of shock at how left it is or is not, since nothing would shock me based on Tory preparation.
It seems like every media organisation has the "scoop". So either it was some idiot at team twat hit reply to all in an email or they have deliberately leaked it.
Bet you they wouldn't have done so had the CPS had better news this morning.
General Election 2015: Warrington North[4][5] Party Candidate Votes % ± Labour Helen Jones 21,720 47.8 +2.3 Conservative Richard Short 12,797 28.2 -2.1 UKIP Trevor Nicholls 7,757 17.1 N/A Liberal Democrat Stefan Krizanac 1,881 4.1 −16.7 Green Sarah Hayes 1,264 2.8 N/A
I think this one could go Tory, I grew up here. If the IRA / Corbyn story gets traction or wide publicity, then this could suppress the labour turnout, large UKIP vote to squeeze, Warrington as a whole voted 55% leave and this is the less well off of the two Warrington constituencies.
Apparently they are going to claim all this 70s left wingery will be fully paid for by simple increase in corporation and inheritance tax....Yeah course it will.
Some populist measures in there. I expect a modest Labour bounce after manifesto launch, but will it least till polling day. Time weill tell as ever...
No.
Every party gets a bounce after their manifesto launch where they promise motherhood, apple pie and free money realistic and costed spending proposals paid for by sensible taxation increases on somebody else.
It lasts until the next manifesto is launched. Not a nanosecond longer.
And Labour are currently so far behind that launching policies even their own shadow ministers don't understand (admittedly as @Roger noted upthread, possibly the least distinguished set of nonentities since Derby's Who? Who? Ministry of 1852 and arguably since Pitt's famous first cabinet of 1783 when it was famously said the only notable achievement any of them had was the ability to imbibe vast amounts of alcohol) is not likely to make a sufficient difference to make them a political force again.
If I was in the Shadow Cabinet responsible for putting this nonsense forward imbibing vast quantities of alcohol would be a rational response.
Honestly, given how extreme Corbyn appears, by comparison it doesn't really shock me, this supposed manifesto. The Tories have already prepared me for anything, up to full on communism.
He's not had a terrible start to his campaign really - especially as compared to his shadow cabinet/
Renationalizing the industries privatised by Tory Governments since the mid-80s hardly amounts to Communism . The logic of claiming otherwise would imply that Heath - Macmillan - Eden -Churchill et al were dangerous Reds.
Where did I say it amounts to communism? I was saying the Tories have painted Corbyn as so far to the left he could be outright communist in his manifesto and it would not surprise me. That's why i'm not in some state of shock at how left it is or is not, since nothing would shock me based on Tory preparation.
And here I was thinking the Green Party proposals with their 4 day week and Universal Basic Pay were a bit nutty.....
Green Party are going to get seriously squeezed though by the Supreme Leader.
Well, that was the idea. There is one poster on these threads who voted for Corbyn in the apparent belief that Green votes had cost him his seat and that a proper left alternative would see them come back to the fold, and therefore he might win his seat again.
He was warned at the time it would be at the cost of every Labour voter who could pass for sane in a clear light deserting the party which would cost them far more seats, but he chose not to listen. He is now about to be given a painful lesson in reality that to judge by his increasingly agitated posts he is not relishing.
Makes you wonder whether those old jokes about politicians are quite so wide of the mark.
Honestly, given how extreme Corbyn appears, by comparison it doesn't really shock me, this supposed manifesto. The Tories have already prepared me for anything, up to full on communism.
He's not had a terrible start to his campaign really - especially as compared to his shadow cabinet/
Renationalizing the industries privatised by Tory Governments since the mid-80s hardly amounts to Communism . The logic of claiming otherwise would imply that Heath - Macmillan - Eden -Churchill et al were dangerous Reds.
No, it just ignores all the painful and expensive lessons of the last 40 years.
Apparently they are going to claim all this 70s left wingery will be fully paid for by simple increase in corporation and inheritance tax....Yeah course it will.
Some populist measures in there. I expect a modest Labour bounce after manifesto launch, but will it least till polling day. Time weill tell as ever...
No.
Every party gets a bounce after their manifesto launch where they promise motherhood, apple pie and free money realistic and costed spending proposals paid for by sensible taxation increases on somebody else.
It lasts until the next manifesto is launched. Not a nanosecond longer.
And Labour are currently so far behind that launching policies even their own shadow ministers don't understand (admittedly as @Roger noted upthread, possibly the least distinguished set of nonentities since Derby's Who? Who? Ministry of 1852 and arguably since Pitt's famous first cabinet of 1783 when it was famously said the only notable achievement any of them had was the ability to imbibe vast amounts of alcohol) is not likely to make a sufficient difference to make them a political force again.
If I was in the Shadow Cabinet responsible for putting this nonsense forward imbibing vast quantities of alcohol would be a rational response.
It is not hard to imagine that the performances of Abbott, Long-Bailey, Rayner and Burgon would be considerably less inept and embarrassing if they were wasted during their interviews. At least they wouldn't say enough to cause a catastrophe!
Honestly, given how extreme Corbyn appears, by comparison it doesn't really shock me, this supposed manifesto. The Tories have already prepared me for anything, up to full on communism.
He's not had a terrible start to his campaign really - especially as compared to his shadow cabinet/
Renationalizing the industries privatised by Tory Governments since the mid-80s hardly amounts to Communism . The logic of claiming otherwise would imply that Heath - Macmillan - Eden -Churchill et al were dangerous Reds.
The problem is that the Overton window has shifted massively since then and Labour haven't laid the groundwork to try and move it back.
I wonder if this manifesto has been leaked by the moderates to put pressure on to tone it down. As it stands, this manifesto makes it so easy for the Tories:
In Brexitland, the message is Labour wants open borders and are weak on defence In London, I expect we'll see "Labour's tax bombshell" wheeled out again.
I expect bicycling vegans who live in Islington will be delighted but middle England will be horrified.
Another nibble on a good day for the PB Trumptons:
Trump's approval rating has plummeted to a near-record low of 36%, according to a new Quinnipac University poll.
Crucially, the president lost significant support among key demographics - white voters with no college degree, white men, and independent voters, the poll found.
"There is no way to spin or sugarcoat these sagging numbers," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "The erosion of white men, white voters without college degrees and independent voters, the declaration by voters that President Donald Trump's first 100 days were mainly a failure and deepening concerns about Trump's honesty, intelligence and level-headedness are red flags that the administration simply can't brush away."
Honestly, given how extreme Corbyn appears, by comparison it doesn't really shock me, this supposed manifesto. The Tories have already prepared me for anything, up to full on communism.
He's not had a terrible start to his campaign really - especially as compared to his shadow cabinet/
Renationalizing the industries privatised by Tory Governments since the mid-80s hardly amounts to Communism . The logic of claiming otherwise would imply that Heath - Macmillan - Eden -Churchill et al were dangerous Reds.
No, it just ignores all the painful and expensive lessons of the last 40 years.
Whatever you think of Corbyn we're still facing the challenge of how to make a modern market economy work. The Tories haven't exactly proved too successful on that front either.
And here I was thinking the Green Party proposals with their 4 day week and Universal Basic Pay were a bit nutty.....
Green Party are going to get seriously squeezed though by the Supreme Leader.
Go back to your darkened room and say strong and stable 3000 times
I promise you will feel better
Can I be first to point out that meme about the Titanic earlier on (that it was strong and stable 'until it hit the iceberg') is wrong?
It was stable even after it sank. It was still upright as it submerged.
Makes you wonder a bit about whether it might prove an eerily perfect metaphor. Even if Brexit is the equivalent of the Titanic's famously one-sided contest with that iceberg, the government will surely survive it given what is about to happen to Labour.
Apparently they are going to claim all this 70s left wingery will be fully paid for by simple increase in corporation and inheritance tax....Yeah course it will.
Some populist measures in there. I expect a modest Labour bounce after manifesto launch, but will it least till polling day. Time weill tell as ever...
No.
Every party gets a bounce after their manifesto launch where they promise motherhood, apple pie and free money realistic and costed spending proposals paid for by sensible taxation increases on somebody else.
It lasts until the next manifesto is launched. Not a nanosecond longer.
And Labour are currently so far behind that launching policies even their own shadow ministers don't understand (admittedly as @Roger noted upthread, possibly the least distinguished set of nonentities since Derby's Who? Who? Ministry of 1852 and arguably since Pitt's famous first cabinet of 1783 when it was famously said the only notable achievement any of them had was the ability to imbibe vast amounts of alcohol) is not likely to make a sufficient difference to make them a political force again.
If I was in the Shadow Cabinet responsible for putting this nonsense forward imbibing vast quantities of alcohol would be a rational response.
It is not hard to imagine that the performances of Abbott, Long-Bailey, Rayner and Burgon would be considerably less inept and embarrassing if they were wasted during their interviews. At least they wouldn't say enough to cause a catastrophe!
I was going to say that they might have been more entertaining but that would in fairness be unfair to Abbott.
Another nibble on a good day for the PB Trumptons:
Trump's approval rating has plummeted to a near-record low of 36%, according to a new Quinnipac University poll.
Crucially, the president lost significant support among key demographics - white voters with no college degree, white men, and independent voters, the poll found.
"There is no way to spin or sugarcoat these sagging numbers," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "The erosion of white men, white voters without college degrees and independent voters, the declaration by voters that President Donald Trump's first 100 days were mainly a failure and deepening concerns about Trump's honesty, intelligence and level-headedness are red flags that the administration simply can't brush away."
His increasingly odd antics are hanging the Republicans out to dry, he got into power by being anti-politics but the problem is that it turns out not being like all the other evil politicians out there meant he was a clueless loony rather than JFK's wayward son.
Apparently they are going to claim all this 70s left wingery will be fully paid for by simple increase in corporation and inheritance tax....Yeah course it will.
Some populist measures in there. I expect a modest Labour bounce after manifesto launch, but will it least till polling day. Time weill tell as ever...
No.
Every party gets a bounce after their manifesto launch where they promise motherhood, apple pie and free money realistic and costed spending proposals paid for by sensible taxation increases on somebody else.
It lasts until the next manifesto is launched. Not a nanosecond longer.
And Labour are currently so far behind that launching policies even their own shadow ministers don't understand (admittedly as @Roger noted upthread, possibly the least distinguished set of nonentities since Derby's Who? Who? Ministry of 1852 and arguably since Pitt's famous first cabinet of 1783 when it was famously said the only notable achievement any of them had was the ability to imbibe vast amounts of alcohol) is not likely to make a sufficient difference to make them a political force again.
If I was in the Shadow Cabinet responsible for putting this nonsense forward imbibing vast quantities of alcohol would be a rational response.
It is not hard to imagine that the performances of Abbott, Long-Bailey, Rayner and Burgon would be considerably less inept and embarrassing if they were wasted during their interviews. At least they wouldn't say enough to cause a catastrophe!
I was going to say that they might have been more entertaining but that would in fairness be unfair to Abbott.
That was something Not The Nine O'Clock News would have been proud of!
Jezza will obliterate Labour's opposition parties on the left with that manifesto. Even Castro couldn't outflank him on the left.
There is no party to the left of that manifesto. – crazy stuff.
This is the moment in all of his political life he has been waiting for.. sod the party
...to be crucified at the polls.. bring it on. Noone believes this batshit is affordable, bar the loonies.
That could be 35% of the electorate.
And what do we get from the tories? - same old sh*t where the wealthy and powerful can do whaever and the rest of us get scrwewed.
Attempting to rerun the failed policies of the 70s is definitely not the answer. There are lots of radical things you could do, but this is just as is Jezza all the stuff he will believe in to the day he dies no matter how much it shows it has failed. There isn't even a modern twist on it, it is literally photocopied 70s left wing policy document.
And here I was thinking the Green Party proposals with their 4 day week and Universal Basic Pay were a bit nutty.....
Green Party are going to get seriously squeezed though by the Supreme Leader.
Go back to your darkened room and say strong and stable 3000 times
I promise you will feel better
Can I be first to point out that meme about the Titanic earlier on (that it was strong and stable 'until it hit the iceberg') is wrong?
It was stable even after it sank. It was still upright as it submerged.
Makes you wonder a bit about whether it might prove an eerily perfect metaphor. Even if Brexit is the equivalent of the Titanic's famously one-sided contest with that iceberg, the government will surely survive it given what is about to happen to Labour.
Yep, First Class to the lifeboats, Steerage to the bottom of the Atlantic, sounds about right.
Another nibble on a good day for the PB Trumptons:
Trump's approval rating has plummeted to a near-record low of 36%, according to a new Quinnipac University poll.
Crucially, the president lost significant support among key demographics - white voters with no college degree, white men, and independent voters, the poll found.
"There is no way to spin or sugarcoat these sagging numbers," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "The erosion of white men, white voters without college degrees and independent voters, the declaration by voters that President Donald Trump's first 100 days were mainly a failure and deepening concerns about Trump's honesty, intelligence and level-headedness are red flags that the administration simply can't brush away."
No shit! Astonishing that they are only starting to have concerns about Trump's honesty, intelligence and level-headedness now.
Honestly, given how extreme Corbyn appears, by comparison it doesn't really shock me, this supposed manifesto. The Tories have already prepared me for anything, up to full on communism.
He's not had a terrible start to his campaign really - especially as compared to his shadow cabinet/
Renationalizing the industries privatised by Tory Governments since the mid-80s hardly amounts to Communism . The logic of claiming otherwise would imply that Heath - Macmillan - Eden -Churchill et al were dangerous Reds.
No, it just ignores all the painful and expensive lessons of the last 40 years.
Whatever you think of Corbyn we're still facing the challenge of how to make a modern market economy work. The Tories haven't exactly proved too successful on that front either.
Disagree. Our living standards continue to improve despite the consequences of the odd Labour government (none as odd as the current shower of course) . The market economy continues to work for us all albeit to very different extents. The increase in inequality is an increasing concern and is potentially destabilising but as a method of wealth creation it has yet to be beaten.
And here I was thinking the Green Party proposals with their 4 day week and Universal Basic Pay were a bit nutty.....
Green Party are going to get seriously squeezed though by the Supreme Leader.
Go back to your darkened room and say strong and stable 3000 times
I promise you will feel better
Can I be first to point out that meme about the Titanic earlier on (that it was strong and stable 'until it hit the iceberg') is wrong?
It was stable even after it sank. It was still upright as it submerged.
Makes you wonder a bit about whether it might prove an eerily perfect metaphor. Even if Brexit is the equivalent of the Titanic's famously one-sided contest with that iceberg, the government will surely survive it given what is about to happen to Labour.
But if Jezza had been on the Titanic he could have walked all those passengers over the water to safety.
The Labour manifesto is being trailed early to get tomorrows headlines, the problem is that I doubt it has in any way been costed or structured properly. There will be no contingencies for the costs of doing any new policies as of course nationalising the railways will be cost free (apart from setting up something to run the damn things of course, also sorting out the ROSCO's etc etc), it will be overly optimistic on tax take, it will assume very low borrowing costs....whilst endlessly borrowing funds etc etc. This is what happens when you only speak to people you agree with, a plan that has holes.
And here I was thinking the Green Party proposals with their 4 day week and Universal Basic Pay were a bit nutty.....
Green Party are going to get seriously squeezed though by the Supreme Leader.
Go back to your darkened room and say strong and stable 3000 times
I promise you will feel better
Can I be first to point out that meme about the Titanic earlier on (that it was strong and stable 'until it hit the iceberg') is wrong?
It was stable even after it sank. It was still upright as it submerged.
Makes you wonder a bit about whether it might prove an eerily perfect metaphor. Even if Brexit is the equivalent of the Titanic's famously one-sided contest with that iceberg, the government will surely survive it given what is about to happen to Labour.
But if Jezza had been on the Titanic he could have walked all those passengers over the water to safety.
OT. This must be the weakest shadow cabinet in living memory. Every spokesperson makes you cringe. I'm not sure they were brains of Britain before the mass resignations but since they've become a horror show.
I heard Angela Rayner use lickle instead of little and Pacific instead of specific in a Radio 4 interview. She is now shadow education secretary. Rolls eyes.
I used to confuse Pacific with specific. When I was about 5 years old.
And here I was thinking the Green Party proposals with their 4 day week and Universal Basic Pay were a bit nutty.....
Green Party are going to get seriously squeezed though by the Supreme Leader.
Go back to your darkened room and say strong and stable 3000 times
I promise you will feel better
Can I be first to point out that meme about the Titanic earlier on (that it was strong and stable 'until it hit the iceberg') is wrong?
It was stable even after it sank. It was still upright as it submerged.
Makes you wonder a bit about whether it might prove an eerily perfect metaphor. Even if Brexit is the equivalent of the Titanic's famously one-sided contest with that iceberg, the government will surely survive it given what is about to happen to Labour.
But if Jezza had been on the Titanic he could have walked all those passengers over the water to safety.
If Jezza had been on the Titanic the Maomentum crowd would have successfully wished the iceberg out of existence. How can you believe otherwise.
Another nibble on a good day for the PB Trumptons:
Trump's approval rating has plummeted to a near-record low of 36%, according to a new Quinnipac University poll.
Crucially, the president lost significant support among key demographics - white voters with no college degree, white men, and independent voters, the poll found.
"There is no way to spin or sugarcoat these sagging numbers," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "The erosion of white men, white voters without college degrees and independent voters, the declaration by voters that President Donald Trump's first 100 days were mainly a failure and deepening concerns about Trump's honesty, intelligence and level-headedness are red flags that the administration simply can't brush away."
No shit! Astonishing that they are only starting to have concerns about Trump's honesty, intelligence and level-headedness now.
And here I was thinking the Green Party proposals with their 4 day week and Universal Basic Pay were a bit nutty.....
Green Party are going to get seriously squeezed though by the Supreme Leader.
Go back to your darkened room and say strong and stable 3000 times
I promise you will feel better
Can I be first to point out that meme about the Titanic earlier on (that it was strong and stable 'until it hit the iceberg') is wrong?
It was stable even after it sank. It was still upright as it submerged.
Makes you wonder a bit about whether it might prove an eerily perfect metaphor. Even if Brexit is the equivalent of the Titanic's famously one-sided contest with that iceberg, the government will surely survive it given what is about to happen to Labour.
But if Jezza had been on the Titanic he could have walked all those passengers over the water to safety.
If Jezza had been on the Titanic the Maomentum crowd would have successfully wished the iceberg out of existence. How can you believe otherwise.
They would have got a tweet of jazz hands "appaulase" gif trending by retweeting it and that would have moved the iceberg out of the way.
There is actually some decent stuff in the Labour manifesto. Renationalising energy and ploughing its surpluses into renewables can certainly be defended. It makes more sense than May's halfway house price cap in many respects. Renationalising rail is wise - franchising doesn't work, indeed many of the best railways in the UK are those in the public sector. There's no way to defend the existing system where - outside London - trains can only be nationalised to foreign governments but not our own.
Who'd have guessed Donald Trump would turn into Kim Jong-il? They say power corrups but not that it turns you barking mad. I think Stanley Kubrick showed great prescience when he made Dr Strangelove.
Comments
I am curious, as I don't know much about unions generally - how would unionisation be increased via a government policy?
It's less magic money tree and more magic money forrest
Not exactly a heartfelt appeal to the old WWC is it? I may have to revise my estimate of the Ukip-to-Con defection rate up from a half to two-thirds...
He's not had a terrible start to his campaign really - especially as compared to his shadow cabinet/
Unless there's some crucial words in the '...', that tells me nothing at all. I cannot wait to see if the Con manifesto is as similarly bland and meaningless on the point!
Oh come on, what a pointless clarification! I'm sure all other parties supporting Trident don't think being cautious about using it is a good idea.
I have no sympathy for MPs that stood by and did nothing after their No Confidence motion failed to remove him and he was re-elected again. The party should have split then.
Corbyn after facing down his rebels who no confidenced him and has twice been elected has every right and mandate to put his manifesto to the public and be judged accordingly.
The MPs who chose they'd rather be led by Corbyn than leave the comfort blanket of the Labour Party can also be judged accordingly.
https://twitter.com/justinjm1/status/862393116153786368
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/labour-not-corbyn
Sensible Labour need to seize the opportunity after close of nominations tomorrow... if they don't, they're toast.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/10/labour-party-manifesto-pledges-to-end-tuition-fees-and-nationalise-railways?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Apparently they are going to claim all this 70s left wingery will be fully paid for by simple increase in corporation and inheritance tax....Yeah course it will.
https://twitter.com/jbeattiemirror/status/862399514442956801
Speaking at Leeds community college alongside the shadow education secretary Angela Rayner, Corbyn said: “You’ll have to wait for the manifesto. I know you’re desperate for it and I’ve got some stuff in my pocket, but, sorry, I’m not allowed to give it to you. Is that alright? Do you mind? Can you cope with the excitement?”
That's actually pretty funny, albeit easy to do when preaching to the converted.
That is the best insurance for Labour. Corbyn crucified at the polls and Labour rebuild after he has gone or failing that in a new party,,, aptly named New New Labour
Every party gets a bounce after their manifesto launch where they promise motherhood, apple pie and
free moneyrealistic and costed spending proposals paid for by sensible taxation increases on somebody else.It lasts until the next manifesto is launched. Not a nanosecond longer.
And Labour are currently so far behind that launching policies even their own shadow ministers don't understand (admittedly as @Roger noted upthread, possibly the least distinguished set of nonentities since Derby's Who? Who? Ministry of 1852 and arguably since Pitt's famous first cabinet of 1783 when it was famously said the only notable achievement any of them had was the ability to imbibe vast amounts of alcohol) is not likely to make a sufficient difference to make them a political force again.
Green Party are going to get seriously squeezed though by the Supreme Leader.
Warrington North
General Election 2015: Warrington North[4][5]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Helen Jones 21,720 47.8 +2.3
Conservative Richard Short 12,797 28.2 -2.1
UKIP Trevor Nicholls 7,757 17.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Stefan Krizanac 1,881 4.1 −16.7
Green Sarah Hayes 1,264 2.8 N/A
I think this one could go Tory, I grew up here. If the IRA / Corbyn story gets traction or wide publicity, then this could suppress the labour turnout, large UKIP vote to squeeze, Warrington as a whole voted 55% leave and this is the less well off of the two Warrington constituencies.
He was warned at the time it would be at the cost of every Labour voter who could pass for sane in a clear light deserting the party which would cost them far more seats, but he chose not to listen. He is now about to be given a painful lesson in reality that to judge by his increasingly agitated posts he is not relishing.
Makes you wonder whether those old jokes about politicians are quite so wide of the mark.
I promise you will feel better
I wonder if this manifesto has been leaked by the moderates to put pressure on to tone it down. As it stands, this manifesto makes it so easy for the Tories:
In Brexitland, the message is Labour wants open borders and are weak on defence
In London, I expect we'll see "Labour's tax bombshell" wheeled out again.
I expect bicycling vegans who live in Islington will be delighted but middle England will be horrified.
Trump's approval rating has plummeted to a near-record low of 36%, according to a new Quinnipac University poll.
Crucially, the president lost significant support among key demographics - white voters with no college degree, white men, and independent voters, the poll found.
"There is no way to spin or sugarcoat these sagging numbers," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "The erosion of white men, white voters without college degrees and independent voters, the declaration by voters that President Donald Trump's first 100 days were mainly a failure and deepening concerns about Trump's honesty, intelligence and level-headedness are red flags that the administration simply can't brush away."
http://www.npr.org/sections/therecord/2017/05/09/527577050/something-you-didnt-know-about-emmanuel-macron-hes-a-pianist
Finally, a real Labour manifesto. Not a fan of Corbyn - nice guy but not a leader. If the messenger was different it could be game on...
It was stable even after it sank. It was still upright as it submerged.
Makes you wonder a bit about whether it might prove an eerily perfect metaphor. Even if Brexit is the equivalent of the Titanic's famously one-sided contest with that iceberg, the government will surely survive it given what is about to happen to Labour.
Good night all.
There will be no contingencies for the costs of doing any new policies as of course nationalising the railways will be cost free (apart from setting up something to run the damn things of course, also sorting out the ROSCO's etc etc), it will be overly optimistic on tax take, it will assume very low borrowing costs....whilst endlessly borrowing funds etc etc. This is what happens when you only speak to people you agree with, a plan that has holes.
Have a good evening.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
Jezza's manifesto is just that doing it all over again expecting a different result..
There are only two serious choices in the election.
The SNP may argue they are a third, but Corbyn can hardly be accused of being a 'RedTory' - he's miles to the left of the SNP.