Very interesting though a little pessimistic. Though William Hague's theory that the result at the end of the campaign is seldom different from the polls at the beginning I think this one might prove the exception. . At the moment most voters think Corbyn is a donkey. He has seven weeks to prove otherwise and I think he might be able to do that.
In fairness is that not pretty hard to argue with? Of course it doesn't justify what people have subsequently done with his work but his analysis was genuinely ground breaking. Still a stupid thing to say in our gotcha culture of course.
I think the majority in Midlothian is just too big, it is 10,000 - whilst the Tories might do that to English Labour I'm doubtful SLAB will do it to the SNP.
If you put the gun to my head I'd go with SLAB 2 seats. Which 2 I'm not sure. But 2 I think.
Has Tim Farron responded yet to their new policy announced by Cable/Olney of encouraging voters to back Corbyn's Labour instead of voting for paper LD candidates?
Well, my acquaintance who is the LD candidate in Ealing Central & Acton has:
I've been knocking on doors in ECA nearly every day since the election was called. I'm far from being a paper candidate.
Has one of the clever types on here worked out how the Corbyn/Left aligned Labour MPs map to the safest Labour seats? i.e. as the Labour seat count declines toward their core safest seats does the alignment of the residual MPs start to work in favour or against a Corybn/Left aligned leadership candidates getting the necessary % of MPs to put them on the ballot assuming no rule change on that %age? I wonder if there is a sweet spot for both the Left and the Moderates in terms of what a 'good' defeat looks like in each case?
There's a dip in the curve. If Corbyn does ok then he'll have all his old cronies. If he does very poorly indeed then he'll just have London, Liverpool, and some other MPs. He's safe then too because all of those MPs are just career rabble-rousers (However there's no likelihood at all of them raising rabbles - indolence rules).
I reckon the MAX for Scottish Labour is three - Edi South, East Lothian and possibly Paisley & Renfrewshire South.
Edi South (Held, but could be vulnerable to the Tories from third or SNP through the middle)
26. East Renfrewshire Majority 3718 (6.6%) <- Scottish Torie surge 44. Edinburgh North & Leith Majority 5597 (9.6%) <- SNP held up here 60. East Lothian Majority 6803 (11.5%) <- I think this could drop 64. Paisley & Renfrewshire South Majority 5684 (12.3%) <- Potentially ? Stretch though. SNP holding up up in Greater glasgow/Dougie personal vote unwind 84. Aberdeen South Majority 7230 (14.8%) <- Tory target 89. Edinburgh South West Majority 8135 (15.8%) <- Tory target 92. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)* <- Tory target 94. Rutherglen & Hamilton West Majority 9975 (17.4%) <- Getting into the realm of monstrous swings, SLAB looks too weak to manage these.
It isn't a change election for the SLAB/SNP dynamic as the last one was, and alot of the easier targets have the Tory klaxon surge.</p>
Great article @AlastairMeeks, I'm in with you on the 7/4 120-159 band.
Fantastic analysis, in sharp contrast to the comments this morning on "Leavers" and "Fascists". A huge number of us voted to leave the EU because of their desire to end up as a single European country, led by the unaccountable and unsackable bureaucracy of J-C Drunker, and with an inward-facing EU view of the world. The views of the Michael Goves and Dan Hannans are not the same as the Nigel Farages and Marine Le Pens, the former want to trade freely with the world and take advantage of our strengths in specialised goods, services, language and time zone to improve our position in the top half dozen countries in the world. We remain positive for a post-Brexit future.
Seconded, I think this is a great article with some fantastic analysis.
For anyone who is interested, I had a hundred quid on Labour 100 - 149 seats on BF but cashed in for a very small profit last week.
That's because I think one of two things is going to happen, either the Labour vote holds up to something close to the current polling and puts Labour on around 160-170 seats, but if it falls much below that it could be a total collapse. Part of me thinks the sub 100 is more likely than 100 -149 band.
There are still some quite tasty odds on size of Con majority on Betfair Exchange at the monent - there's fifty quid waiting at 9.6 on Con majority 175-199 and another fifty quid waiting to back 200 - 224 at 19 - 21. This sort of majority would be consistent with Labour getting somewhere between 120 - 150 seats and as such I think represents fantastic value but as always DYOR...
In fairness is that not pretty hard to argue with? Of course it doesn't justify what people have subsequently done with his work but his analysis was genuinely ground breaking. Still a stupid thing to say in our gotcha culture of course.
Marx in no way added. He just said the status quo was fucked up.
And, possibly, a newly de-loonified Labour party in a few weeks' time.
It will have fewer old Labour types (me grandpa always voted Labour, so did me dad, so do I) and a lot more Greens in it.
Greens are loonies. Watermelons. And more aligned with Islington than WWC areas. If Labour ever, ever wants to have a UK majority it needs to regain votes from middle England. They'd be better off abandoning Islington and looking back to their work related origins for a policy and appeal rethink.
That's what they should have done after the 2010 GE.
What amazes me is how, after Alistair (restricted by bookmakers) places bets on small unstable markets such as these, the price is still there for others to follow him in
Iain Dale's final prediction (which in 2015 was way off so DYOR):
Conservative 389 (58) Labour 165 (-67) Liberal Democrats 17 (8) SNP 53 (-3) Plaid Cymru 5 (2) Green 2 (1) DUP 8 (-1) UUP 1 (-1) Sinn Fein 5 (-) SDLP 3 (-) Independent 1 (-) Speaker 1 (-)
Looks high for PC, who do significantly better at local elections. Also note he has found 17 potential LibDem seats despite not predicting any gains for them in the SW.
Has Tim Farron responded yet to their new policy announced by Cable/Olney of encouraging voters to back Corbyn's Labour instead of voting for paper LD candidates?
Well, my acquaintance who is the LD candidate in Ealing Central & Acton has:
I've been knocking on doors in ECA nearly every day since the election was called. I'm far from being a paper candidate.
I infer that he's fuming at Cable and Olney.
Not that long ago, Ealing C wasn't far off being a target seat.
What amazes me is how, after Alistair (restricted by bookmakers) places bets on small unstable markets such as these, the price is still there for others to follow him in
Looking back at 1945 Lab 47.7% 393 seats, Tories 36.2% 197 seats 1924 46.8% 412 seats Tories to 151, and Ramsey got 33.3% in that election.
47 - 27 could produce something absolubtely mind blowing. Remember Labour lost Tees and the WM mayoralty, and the Tories PNS was nowhere near 47% last friday.
In fairness is that not pretty hard to argue with? Of course it doesn't justify what people have subsequently done with his work but his analysis was genuinely ground breaking. Still a stupid thing to say in our gotcha culture of course.
Here's the full quote (from the Guardian blog):
"All great economists influence all of our thinking. Yes I have read some of Adam Smith, I have read some of Karl Marx, I have looked at the words of Ricardo, I have looked at many, many others.
I don’t consider myself the world’s greatest intellectual but you learnt from everybody, don’t close your mind to the thoughts of others - that way we’re all better informed."
Fair enough IMO. And, yes, typical that Hawkes only quotes the Marx bit.
Looking back at 1945 Lab 47.7% 393 seats, Tories 36.2% 197 seats 1924 46.8% 412 seats Tories to 151, and Ramsey got 33.3% in that election.
47 - 27 could produce something absolubtely mind blowing. Remember Labour lost Tees and the WM mayoralty, and the Tories PNS was nowhere near 47% last friday.
Con win the Tees Valley Mayoral is the one I still can't process.
ICM could well be picking up a post local election boost for the perceived winner. Usually lasts but a few days , and it will be interesting what other polls are saying later in the week.
Has one of the clever types on here worked out how the Corbyn/Left aligned Labour MPs map to the safest Labour seats? i.e. as the Labour seat count declines toward their core safest seats does the alignment of the residual MPs start to work in favour or against a Corybn/Left aligned leadership candidates getting the necessary % of MPs to put them on the ballot assuming no rule change on that %age? I wonder if there is a sweet spot for both the Left and the Moderates in terms of what a 'good' defeat looks like in each case?
There's a dip in the curve. If Corbyn does ok then he'll have all his old cronies. If he does very poorly indeed then he'll just have London, Liverpool, and some other MPs. He's safe then too because all of those MPs are just career rabble-rousers (However there's no likelihood at all of them raising rabbles - indolence rules).
If you look at the MPs for Liverpool, you've got Stephen Twigg, Luciana Berger, Louise Ellman, and Angela Eagle. Hardly rabble rousers. Rotheram in Walton is the only Corbynite, and his seat just got freed up after the mayoral election.
Not as familiar with the Manchester MPs but Lucy Powell isn't a rabble rouser either
Okay, so inspired by Alastair, I've done something similar in a spreadsheet.
Instead of referendum vote, I've divided the 232 Labour seats in 2015 into:
1. 72 seats where the UKIP vote was more than 2/3rds of a standard deviation above its 2015 average (that is 17.60%+)
2. 62 seats where the UKIP vote was more than 2/3rds of a standard deviation below its 2015 average (that is 9.38%-)
3. 98 seats where the UKIP vote was nearer to its average.
Current polls indicate - broadly - a 5.5% Labour to Con swing. So I've applied an 8.5% swing to group 1, 2.5% swing to group 2, and 5.5% swing to group 3.
The results are 20 Tory gains in group 1, 10 Tory gains in group 2, and 29 Tory gains in group 3. Total of 59 gains - so 389 Tories, 193 Labour, majority 128.
Of course, there's also LD and SNP. I'd expect LDs to pick up a handful of Labour and Tory seats, but also Tories to pick up a handful of SNP seats. But this is on the margins of the bigger picture.
UNS would, I think, imply 48 Tory gains from Labour on a 5.5% swing, so this model involves 11 more, increasing the majority from 106 to 128.
The "surprise" Tory gains on this model (gained at >UNS) are Batley & Spen, Dudley N, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Mansfield, Newport E, Oldham E & Saddleworth, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Stalybridge & Hyde, Stoke Central, Stoke North, Wolverhampton NE, Workington, and Worsley & Eccles. The surprise Tory misses (not gained at <UNS) are Tooting, Westminster N, and Wirral S.
Looking back at 1945 Lab 47.7% 393 seats, Tories 36.2% 197 seats 1924 46.8% 412 seats Tories to 151, and Ramsey got 33.3% in that election.
47 - 27 could produce something absolubtely mind blowing. Remember Labour lost Tees and the WM mayoralty, and the Tories PNS was nowhere near 47% last friday.
Con win the Tees Valley Mayoral is the one I still can't process.
It was only about as tough as the West Mids when you look at the numbers, Being from Coventry, quite mind blowing to think Andy Street won there.
Has one of the clever types on here worked out how the Corbyn/Left aligned Labour MPs map to the safest Labour seats? i.e. as the Labour seat count declines toward their core safest seats does the alignment of the residual MPs start to work in favour or against a Corybn/Left aligned leadership candidates getting the necessary % of MPs to put them on the ballot assuming no rule change on that %age? I wonder if there is a sweet spot for both the Left and the Moderates in terms of what a 'good' defeat looks like in each case?
There's a dip in the curve. If Corbyn does ok then he'll have all his old cronies. If he does very poorly indeed then he'll just have London, Liverpool, and some other MPs. He's safe then too because all of those MPs are just career rabble-rousers (However there's no likelihood at all of them raising rabbles - indolence rules).
If you look at the MPs for Liverpool, you've got Stephen Twigg, Luciana Berger, Louise Ellman, and Angela Eagle. Hardly rabble rousers. Rotheram in Walton is the only Corbynite, and his seat just got freed up after the mayoral election.
Not as familiar with the Manchester MPs but Lucy Powell isn't a rabble rouser either
Maria Eagle, not Angela, but the same point applies
I think the majority in Midlothian is just too big, it is 10,000 - whilst the Tories might do that to English Labour I'm doubtful SLAB will do it to the SNP.
If you put the gun to my head I'd go with SLAB 2 seats. Which 2 I'm not sure. But 2 I think.
It seems incredible that as recently as 2010 we had an election in Scotland where not a single seat changed hands. It is so much more volatile now. Midlothian is "safe" because of some truly epic swings in 2015- the SNP were up 30% points! But the locals suggest that a major part of that has unwound.
Re- Scotland. I suspect Labour will be content to be only 12% behind the SNP compared with the almost 26% margin in 2015. That amounts to a swing from SNP to Lab of circa 7% and should enable Labour to claw back some of their 2015 losses.
You do have so much loyalty Justin. Labour will be very lucky to keep their one Scottish seat
Lose Edinburgh South, gain East Lothian (But that is it) is my leftfield SLAB prediction.
My prediction is they will get both. Edinburgh South is a toss-up TBH with the Conservatives also looking close, based on the Council results. Midlothian possible. There has been a collapse in SNP support in the council with Labour benefiting. Demographically, East Lothian, and particularly Midlothian are becoming overspill for Edinburgh and will be affected by some apparently quite radical voting shifts in the city.
The trends Alistair describes in his header don't apply to Scotland. There is no UKIP support to speak of; Labour was already at the floor in 2015; independence, not Brexit, is the key motivator. Above all, there is a totally different dominant party in the SNP.
well as two of you think labour could take east lothian I've had a nibble at 10/1 with 365. thank you.
Has Tim Farron responded yet to their new policy announced by Cable/Olney of encouraging voters to back Corbyn's Labour instead of voting for paper LD candidates?
Well, my acquaintance who is the LD candidate in Ealing Central & Acton has:
I've been knocking on doors in ECA nearly every day since the election was called. I'm far from being a paper candidate.
I infer that he's fuming at Cable and Olney.
It's Farron who needs to respond. The public have a right to know if the party is effectively allied to Corbyn's Labour party. If not surely Cable and Olney should be sacked.
Has Tim Farron responded yet to their new policy announced by Cable/Olney of encouraging voters to back Corbyn's Labour instead of voting for paper LD candidates?
Well, my acquaintance who is the LD candidate in Ealing Central & Acton has:
I've been knocking on doors in ECA nearly every day since the election was called. I'm far from being a paper candidate.
I infer that he's fuming at Cable and Olney.
Not that long ago, Ealing C wasn't far off being a target seat.
It was a three-way marginal in 2010 and would surely have gone Lib Dem if the Cleggasm had been more sustained/less illusory (delete to your own taste!)
The two seats I know (Nottingham N where I live and Broxtowe where I represented) both voted Leave, but it's rare to meet voters who cite the issue as decisive for them. There's a tendency to feel that the issue is done and dusted: a certain irritation with "new referendum" hard Remainers, but otherwise not that much interest in what the individual candidates and their parties think sabout the nuances of single markets etc. So I wonder if Alastair isn't over-weighting in both directions for the significance.
Afternoon Mr Palmer,
Could I ask you a question? I know you're a man that is broadly in favour of Corbyn etc. Does it worry you that every day they announce spending ideas? I know there's some attempts to identify funding for that spending, but it doesn't quite add up. If Labour were elected the country would be very close to going bust - we're close now, and it'd be worse. So I'm curious, does this worry you?
(FWIW even Tory spending scares me)
Edit: Apologies I should have said 'Dr Palmer'
I try not to use Dr - always afraid of being asked to deliver a baby.
I'd like to see the promised itemised spending and revenue-raising catalogue promised by McDonell in the manifesto, and will reserve judgment till then. I'm not especially afraid of slower deficit reduction, any more than the Tories have been in practice, as opposed to rhetoric, but wouldn't favour just letting rip and hoping for the best. I think McDonnell is our most serious recent Shadow Chancellor, actually - note that he's been criticised by one of his former advisers as being "not left-wing enough" precisely because he's keen to make the sums add up.
I reckon the MAX for Scottish Labour is three - Edi South, East Lothian and possibly Paisley & Renfrewshire South.
Edi South (Held, but could be vulnerable to the Tories from third or SNP through the middle)
26. East Renfrewshire Majority 3718 (6.6%) <- Scottish Torie surge 44. Edinburgh North & Leith Majority 5597 (9.6%) <- SNP held up here 60. East Lothian Majority 6803 (11.5%) <- I think this could drop 64. Paisley & Renfrewshire South Majority 5684 (12.3%) <- Potentially ? Stretch though. SNP holding up up in Greater glasgow/Dougie personal vote unwind 84. Aberdeen South Majority 7230 (14.8%) <- Tory target 89. Edinburgh South West Majority 8135 (15.8%) <- Tory target 92. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)* <- Tory target 94. Rutherglen & Hamilton West Majority 9975 (17.4%) <- Getting into the realm of monstrous swings, SLAB looks too weak to manage these.
It isn't a change election for the SLAB/SNP dyna. mic as the last one was, and alot of the easier targets have the Tory klaxon surge.</p>
Labour also won Midlothian last week.
I need to qualify this a bit. SNP support dropped very significantly at the council. If we assume this trend will also apply to Westminster and isn't a purely local factor, and we also assume most Green supporters will switch to the SNP, it will come down to what happens with tactical voting in the Unionist parties. The Conservatives have also done well in Midlothian. If Conservative supporters lend a tactical vote to Labour, Labour will win. If they don't, the SNP will win.
I think the majority in Midlothian is just too big, it is 10,000 - whilst the Tories might do that to English Labour I'm doubtful SLAB will do it to the SNP.
If you put the gun to my head I'd go with SLAB 2 seats. Which 2 I'm not sure. But 2 I think.
It seems incredible that as recently as 2010 we had an election in Scotland where not a single seat changed hands. It is so much more volatile now. Midlothian is "safe" because of some truly epic swings in 2015- the SNP were up 30% points! But the locals suggest that a major part of that has unwound.
Indeed. I don't understand the reasoning of those who claim that a given SNP seat is safe because of the 2015 majority given the Tsunami that took place that year. If the SNP could achieve swings of over 30% that year , why is it so unrealistic to contemplate Labour reversing that to the extent of a 10% SNP to Labour swing in 2017 when polling evidense suggests this might be happening?
If so the swing will be nearer 5% than the 7.5% on Alastair's central projection.
But Scotland was a more remainy area which would suggest less of a Lab to Tory swing than Alistair's central projection, so a 5% swing would probably be predicted.
The swing in Scotland that matters is Lab/SNP because the SNP currently hold pretty much all the seats, certainly the ones that Labour are looking at recovering. As the SNP is also a remain party I don't think that explains the result. This may indeed make Scotland different but those betting on the bands should be aware that there is a chance of a small handful of Labour MPs from north of the border being added in. Its one of the reasons I am nervous about 170.
We need a Scotland GE poll. I suspect the SNP will do better in the GE than the locals.
I think the SNP are still pretty much set to hit c.43-45%.
As SCON move into a similar % share as the infamous Jim Murphy - I'm seeing some very similar MSN over exuberance from back then - plus the usual PB.com calls that we've passed "Peak SNP" etc etc.
Already we have some unseemly squabbles breaking out between SCON & SLAB in the likes of Edinburgh South & East Ren - much of it on social media. Ruth and SCON appear to have caught a case of "decapitationitis" as they publicly target high profile SNP scalps.
The SNP will defend aggressively - expect some pretty hard hitting attack ads - SCON & SLAB will see their loose words used against them.
The "surprise" Tory gains on this model (gained at >UNS) are Batley & Spen, Dudley N, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Mansfield, Newport E, Oldham E & Saddleworth, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Stalybridge & Hyde, Stoke Central, Stoke North, Wolverhampton NE, Workington, and Worsley & Eccles. The surprise Tory misses (not gained at
N.B. "Surprise" is in inverted commas because the betting has the Tories as favourites in all the long-shot gains except Batley & Spen, Stoke Central, and Wolverhampton NE (they are essentially 50/50 in Worsley & Eccles), whilst Labour are favourites in the "surprise" holds except for Westminster N.
I can see why the by-elections in the first two since 2015 change the assessment. There may be value in some of these, however.
I think the majority in Midlothian is just too big, it is 10,000 - whilst the Tories might do that to English Labour I'm doubtful SLAB will do it to the SNP.
If you put the gun to my head I'd go with SLAB 2 seats. Which 2 I'm not sure. But 2 I think.
It seems incredible that as recently as 2010 we had an election in Scotland where not a single seat changed hands. It is so much more volatile now. Midlothian is "safe" because of some truly epic swings in 2015- the SNP were up 30% points! But the locals suggest that a major part of that has unwound.
Re- Scotland. I suspect Labour will be content to be only 12% behind the SNP compared with the almost 26% margin in 2015. That amounts to a swing from SNP to Lab of circa 7% and should enable Labour to claw back some of their 2015 losses.
You do have so much loyalty Justin. Labour will be very lucky to keep their one Scottish seat
Lose Edinburgh South, gain East Lothian (But that is it) is my leftfield SLAB prediction.
My prediction is they will get both. Edinburgh South is a toss-up TBH with the Conservatives also looking close, based on the Council results. Midlothian possible. There has been a collapse in SNP support in the council with Labour benefiting. Demographically, East Lothian, and particularly Midlothian are becoming overspill for Edinburgh and will be affected by some apparently quite radical voting shifts in the city.
The trends Alistair describes in his header don't apply to Scotland. There is no UKIP support to speak of; Labour was already at the floor in 2015; independence, not Brexit, is the key motivator. Above all, there is a totally different dominant party in the SNP.
well as two of you think labour could take east lothian I've had a nibble at 10/1 with 365. thank you.
The two seats I know (Nottingham N where I live and Broxtowe where I represented) both voted Leave, but it's rare to meet voters who cite the issue as decisive for them. There's a tendency to feel that the issue is done and dusted: a certain irritation with "new referendum" hard Remainers, but otherwise not that much interest in what the individual candidates and their parties think sabout the nuances of single markets etc. So I wonder if Alastair isn't over-weighting in both directions for the significance.
Afternoon Mr Palmer,
Could I ask you a question? I know you're a man that is broadly in favour of Corbyn etc. Does it worry you that every day they announce spending ideas? I know there's some attempts to identify funding for that spending, but it doesn't quite add up. If Labour were elected the country would be very close to going bust - we're close now, and it'd be worse. So I'm curious, does this worry you?
(FWIW even Tory spending scares me)
Edit: Apologies I should have said 'Dr Palmer'
I try not to use Dr - always afraid of being asked to deliver a baby.
I'd like to see the promised itemised spending and revenue-raising catalogue promised by McDonell in the manifesto, and will reserve judgment till then. I'm not especially afraid of slower deficit reduction, any more than the Tories have been in practice, as opposed to rhetoric, but wouldn't favour just letting rip and hoping for the best. I think McDonnell is our most serious recent Shadow Chancellor, actually - note that he's been criticised by one of his former advisers as being "not left-wing enough" precisely because he's keen to make the sums add up.
The Lib Dems are leaving it rather late for an election campaign surge. Where’s the Timgasm?
It is not actually late at all. Until the FTPA ,today would very likely have been when the election announcement would have been made if the pattern adopted in 1987 , 1983 & 1970 was followed. Both 1974 elections saw just 3 week campaigns from the day of announcement to polling day.
If so the swing will be nearer 5% than the 7.5% on Alastair's central projection.
But Scotland was a more remainy area which would suggest less of a Lab to Tory swing than Alistair's central projection, so a 5% swing would probably be predicted.
The swing in Scotland that matters is Lab/SNP because the SNP currently hold pretty much all the seats, certainly the ones that Labour are looking at recovering. As the SNP is also a remain party I don't think that explains the result. This may indeed make Scotland different but those betting on the bands should be aware that there is a chance of a small handful of Labour MPs from north of the border being added in. Its one of the reasons I am nervous about 170.
We need a Scotland GE poll. I suspect the SNP will do better in the GE than the locals.
I think the SNP are still pretty much set to hit c.43-45%.
As SCON move into a similar % share as the infamous Jim Murphy - I'm seeing some very similar MSN over exuberance from back then - plus the usual PB.com calls that we've passed "Peak SNP" etc etc.
Already we have some unseemly squabbles breaking out between SCON & SLAB in the likes of Edinburgh South & East Ren - much of it on social media. Ruth and SCON appear to have caught a case of "decapitationitis" as they publicly target high profile SNP scalps.
The SNP will defend aggressively - expect some pretty hard hitting attack ads - SCON & SLAB will see their loose words used against them.
The polls overstated the SNP and understated the Tories in the Holyrood elections last year. Do you think they'll be right this time?
For anyone already on 150-200 Labour seats, the 15/8 from Betfred on 100-149 seats may be a better bet than the Betfair/PP option - slightly better odds and a slightly wider seat range.
That's a great bet. *tries to find a friend to go to a Fred shop before it disappears*
Trump is a Republican and, as Cheney put it: Reagan showed that deficits don't matter. Meanwhile, back in Britain, it was Gordon Brown paying off Tory debt and George Osborne increasing it.
.
Brown did not inherit a Budget Surplus. No Tory Chancellor has produced that since Lawson in the late 1980s at the peak of North Sea Oil revenues and Privatisation receipts.
He didn't inherit a surplus but as you can see the budget account was balancing and went into the black - until Brown cut loose .
If you look at that graph you link to, you will see it shows that when Brown "cut loose" he was still level with or below the Conservative figures. If you go back to its source and look at the GDP percentage figures, Brown's alleged profligacy is far below the Conservatives'.
I knew you were a Eurofanatic, but not a Euro fanatic.
Oh wow it has been some years since I heard anyone seriously say we should have joined the Euro! How entertainingly bonkers.
Nurse!
Did you quote the wrong post? Where from that did you get the idea I think we should have joined the Euro?
Oh bugger.
yes I did. sorry.
meant to be in reply to one of @williamglenn 's gems - you know the ones which sound like they are written by the ghost of Jean Monnet or whatever his name was
Iain Dale's final prediction (which in 2015 was way off so DYOR):
Conservative 389 (58) Labour 165 (-67) Liberal Democrats 17 (8) SNP 53 (-3) Plaid Cymru 5 (2) Green 2 (1) DUP 8 (-1) UUP 1 (-1) Sinn Fein 5 (-) SDLP 3 (-) Independent 1 (-) Speaker 1 (-)
Looks high for PC, who do significantly better at local elections. Also note he has found 17 potential LibDem seats despite not predicting any gains for them in the SW.
Not too high for Plaid...just that he has tipped the wrong seat - Llanelli - which might be Plaids 8th target...
The two seats I know (Nottingham N where I live and Broxtowe where I represented) both voted Leave, but it's rare to meet voters who cite the issue as decisive for them. There's a tendency to feel that the issue is done and dusted: a certain irritation with "new referendum" hard Remainers, but otherwise not that much interest in what the individual candidates and their parties think sabout the nuances of single markets etc. So I wonder if Alastair isn't over-weighting in both directions for the significance.
Afternoon Mr Palmer,
Could I ask you a question? I know you're a man that is broadly in favour of Corbyn etc. Does it worry you that every day they announce spending ideas? I know there's some attempts to identify funding for that spending, but it doesn't quite add up. If Labour were elected the country would be very close to going bust - we're close now, and it'd be worse. So I'm curious, does this worry you?
(FWIW even Tory spending scares me)
Edit: Apologies I should have said 'Dr Palmer'
I try not to use Dr - always afraid of being asked to deliver a baby.
I'd like to see the promised itemised spending and revenue-raising catalogue promised by McDonell in the manifesto, and will reserve judgment till then. I'm not especially afraid of slower deficit reduction, any more than the Tories have been in practice, as opposed to rhetoric, but wouldn't favour just letting rip and hoping for the best. I think McDonnell is our most serious recent Shadow Chancellor, actually - note that he's been criticised by one of his former advisers as being "not left-wing enough" precisely because he's keen to make the sums add up.
Comfortable then? Nervous? Confident?
I object to Labour because they feel it's their right to spend your money if you're rich on their aggrandisement, but with a small amount finding its way to the undeserving.
I have no doubt that these things concern you too.
If so the swing will be nearer 5% than the 7.5% on Alastair's central projection.
But Scotland was a more remainy area which would suggest less of a Lab to Tory swing than Alistair's central projection, so a 5% swing would probably be predicted.
The swing in Scotland that matters is Lab/SNP because the SNP currently hold pretty much all the seats, certainly the ones that Labour are looking at recovering. As the SNP is also a remain party I don't think that explains the result. This may indeed make Scotland different but those betting on the bands should be aware that there is a chance of a small handful of Labour MPs from north of the border being added in. Its one of the reasons I am nervous about 170.
We need a Scotland GE poll. I suspect the SNP will do better in the GE than the locals.
I think the SNP are still pretty much set to hit c.43-45%.
As SCON move into a similar % share as the infamous Jim Murphy - I'm seeing some very similar MSN over exuberance from back then - plus the usual PB.com calls that we've passed "Peak SNP" etc etc.
Already we have some unseemly squabbles breaking out between SCON & SLAB in the likes of Edinburgh South & East Ren - much of it on social media. Ruth and SCON appear to have caught a case of "decapitationitis" as they publicly target high profile SNP scalps.
The SNP will defend aggressively - expect some pretty hard hitting attack ads - SCON & SLAB will see their loose words used against them.
I think there is now a good chance of the SNP falling below 40% - say 37%/38%.
I think the majority in Midlothian is just too big, it is 10,000 - whilst the Tories might do that to English Labour I'm doubtful SLAB will do it to the SNP.
If you put the gun to my head I'd go with SLAB 2 seats. Which 2 I'm not sure. But 2 I think.
It seems incredible that as recently as 2010 we had an election in Scotland where not a single seat changed hands. It is so much more volatile now. Midlothian is "safe" because of some truly epic swings in 2015- the SNP were up 30% points! But the locals suggest that a major part of that has unwound.
What is a modest tory seat target post locals?
I presume you mean in Scotland. I would say 8, the 3 borders, Abdn West, Abdn South, East Renfrewshire, Perth and North Tayside and one of the Edinburgh seats (not entirely sure which one). Any more than that and I will be truly delighted. I think the first 4 are nailed on. The next 4 are decent chances but there are other possible chances to take their place if they fall short.
I think the majority in Midlothian is just too big, it is 10,000 - whilst the Tories might do that to English Labour I'm doubtful SLAB will do it to the SNP.
If you put the gun to my head I'd go with SLAB 2 seats. Which 2 I'm not sure. But 2 I think.
It seems incredible that as recently as 2010 we had an election in Scotland where not a single seat changed hands. It is so much more volatile now. Midlothian is "safe" because of some truly epic swings in 2015- the SNP were up 30% points! But the locals suggest that a major part of that has unwound.
What is a modest tory seat target post locals?
I presume you mean in Scotland. I would say 8, the 3 borders, Abdn West, Abdn South, East Renfrewshire, Perth and North Tayside and one of the Edinburgh seats (not entirely sure which one). Any more than that and I will be truly delighted. I think the first 4 are nailed on. The next 4 are decent chances but there are other possible chances to take their place if they fall short.
Are you on SLAB in East Lothian at 10-1 though ?! 365, get it whilst the trader is out and about pounding the new Tory heartlands xD
Mr forecast a couple of weeks ago was a blue majority of 60-80 seats. It might be a little bigger but I wonder if it'll reach the astronomical proportions some believe it will.
ICM could well be picking up a post local election boost for the perceived winner. Usually lasts but a few days , and it will be interesting what other polls are saying later in the week.
Not known as justin kill'em all short Straws for nothing.
Iain Dale's final prediction (which in 2015 was way off so DYOR):
Conservative 389 (58) Labour 165 (-67) Liberal Democrats 17 (8) SNP 53 (-3) Plaid Cymru 5 (2) Green 2 (1) DUP 8 (-1) UUP 1 (-1) Sinn Fein 5 (-) SDLP 3 (-) Independent 1 (-) Speaker 1 (-)
Looks high for PC, who do significantly better at local elections. Also note he has found 17 potential LibDem seats despite not predicting any gains for them in the SW.
Too high for the SNP: I reckon they'll lose three seats to the Libs and Labs before we even get to any Tory gains.
A more likely Scottish result is SNP 47, down 11. With LD +2, Lab +1, and Con +6.
I struggle to see 17 LibDem seats. There are maybe a half dozen in deepest Remoania (plus the Scottish seats), but against that there are a couple of seats they could easily lose.
ICM could well be picking up a post local election boost for the perceived winner. Usually lasts but a few days , and it will be interesting what other polls are saying later in the week.
Not known as justin kill'em all short Straws for nothing.
1/33 for Con majority 1/100 - yes - for Con most seats A paltry 1/20 for May to be PM on June 10th
Mind boggling odds that must be unprecedented anywhere in Western democratic history.
I can't quite get out of my head the confident assessment on PB in 2015 tha NOM was free money. I can't see how, but still...
Yeah, I went balls-deep on that and had to undo it later with borrowed money - was 1/8 on the morning of Election Day. The lesson learned is to hold a lot of cash back for late in the night itself, as Brexit and Trump subsequently proved.
Iain Dale's final prediction (which in 2015 was way off so DYOR):
Conservative 389 (58) Labour 165 (-67) Liberal Democrats 17 (8) SNP 53 (-3) Plaid Cymru 5 (2) Green 2 (1) DUP 8 (-1) UUP 1 (-1) Sinn Fein 5 (-) SDLP 3 (-) Independent 1 (-) Speaker 1 (-)
Looks high for PC, who do significantly better at local elections. Also note he has found 17 potential LibDem seats despite not predicting any gains for them in the SW.
Too high for the SNP: I reckon they'll lose three seats to the Libs and Labs before we even get to any Tory gains.
A more likely Scottish result is SNP 47, down 11. With LD +2, Lab +1, and Con +6.
I struggle to see 17 LibDem seats. There are maybe a half dozen in deepest Remoania (plus the Scottish seats), but against that there are a couple of seats they could easily lose.
ICM could well be picking up a post local election boost for the perceived winner. Usually lasts but a few days , and it will be interesting what other polls are saying later in the week.
Not known as justin kill'em all short Straws for nothing.
Some of us have good memories for psephology - others clearly do not.
Mr forecast a couple of weeks ago was a blue majority of 60-80 seats. It might be a little bigger but I wonder if it'll reach the astronomical proportions some believe it will.
I still expect that the party shares will be Con 40-45, Lab 25-30 - then adjusted upwards a bit to account for the seats that UKIP and the Greens won't be standing in.
Is that a 5.5% swing? Doesn't sound like a lot given the polls?
The key word is "over". It's a lot more than a 5.5% swing.
So what range is it? From a 15% lead to their highest possible lead? Or 15-19%? It isn't very clear what we are comparing the baseline as.
At a rough tilt, Slough is seat 163 in the ordered list and has just over 15% maj.
Seat 82 is Doncaster North. Which would be roughly the median seat here. Taken very very loosley and back of fag packet it means Ed is 43-39 ahead of the Tories there, and that's the average position in Labour's "safe" seats from this poll.
That isn't exact, and is very likely wrong but it isn't a million miles off the sentiment.
Is that a 5.5% swing? Doesn't sound like a lot given the polls?
The key word is "over". It's a lot more than a 5.5% swing.
So what range is it? From a 15% lead to their highest possible lead? Or 15-19%? It isn't very clear what we are comparing the baseline as.
At a rough tilt, Slough is seat 163 in the ordered list and has just over 15% maj.
Seat 82 is Doncaster North. Which would be roughly the median seat here. Taken very very loosley and back of fag packet it means Ed is 43-39 ahead of the Tories there, and that's the average position in Labour's "safe" seats from this poll.
That isn't exact, and is very likely wrong but it isn't a million miles off the sentiment.
The Doncaster Mayoral election last week was not exactly close - Labour won on first preferences!
Is that a 5.5% swing? Doesn't sound like a lot given the polls?
The key word is "over". It's a lot more than a 5.5% swing.
So what range is it? From a 15% lead to their highest possible lead? Or 15-19%? It isn't very clear what we are comparing the baseline as.
At a rough tilt, Slough is seat 163 in the ordered list and has just over 15% maj.
Seat 82 is Doncaster North. Which would be roughly the median seat here. Taken very very loosley and back of fag packet it means Ed is 43-39 ahead of the Tories there, and that's the average position in Labour's "safe" seats from this poll.
That isn't exact, and is very likely wrong but it isn't a million miles off the sentiment.
The Doncaster Mayoral election last week was not exactly close - Labour won on first preferences!
& Andy Burnham gained Cheadle, with Labour taking the Gower....
Iain Dale's final prediction (which in 2015 was way off so DYOR):
Conservative 389 (58) Labour 165 (-67) Liberal Democrats 17 (8) SNP 53 (-3) Plaid Cymru 5 (2) Green 2 (1) DUP 8 (-1) UUP 1 (-1) Sinn Fein 5 (-) SDLP 3 (-) Independent 1 (-) Speaker 1 (-)
Looks high for PC, who do significantly better at local elections. Also note he has found 17 potential LibDem seats despite not predicting any gains for them in the SW.
Too high for the SNP: I reckon they'll lose three seats to the Libs and Labs before we even get to any Tory gains.
A more likely Scottish result is SNP 47, down 11. With LD +2, Lab +1, and Con +6.
I struggle to see 17 LibDem seats. There are maybe a half dozen in deepest Remoania (plus the Scottish seats), but against that there are a couple of seats they could easily lose.
47 SNP would only be down 9!
LD +2, Lab +1 and Con +6 is +9 so I think he knew that and it must have been a typo.
Did you quote the wrong post? Where from that did you get the idea I think we should have joined the Euro?
Oh bugger.
yes I did. sorry.
meant to be in reply to one of @williamglenn 's gems - you know the ones which sound like they are written by the ghost of Jean Monnet or whatever his name was
I think the majority in Midlothian is just too big, it is 10,000 - whilst the Tories might do that to English Labour I'm doubtful SLAB will do it to the SNP.
If you put the gun to my head I'd go with SLAB 2 seats. Which 2 I'm not sure. But 2 I think.
It seems incredible that as recently as 2010 we had an election in Scotland where not a single seat changed hands. It is so much more volatile now. Midlothian is "safe" because of some truly epic swings in 2015- the SNP were up 30% points! But the locals suggest that a major part of that has unwound.
What is a modest tory seat target post locals?
I presume you mean in Scotland. I would say 8, the 3 borders, Abdn West, Abdn South, East Renfrewshire, Perth and North Tayside and one of the Edinburgh seats (not entirely sure which one). Any more than that and I will be truly delighted. I think the first 4 are nailed on. The next 4 are decent chances but there are other possible chances to take their place if they fall short.
I'm amazed - just a few months ago I was not even sure they'd hols DCT or gain RBT. anything over 5 would be some progress but 7+.
The two seats I know (Nottingham N where I live and Broxtowe where I represented) both voted Leave, but it's rare to meet voters who cite the issue as decisive for them. There's a tendency to feel that the issue is done and dusted: a certain irritation with "new referendum" hard Remainers, but otherwise not that much interest in what the individual candidates and their parties think sabout the nuances of single markets etc. So I wonder if Alastair isn't over-weighting in both directions for the significance.
Afternoon Mr Palmer,
Could I ask you a question? I know you're a man that is broadly in favour of Corbyn etc. Does it worry you that every day they announce spending ideas? I know there's some attempts to identify funding for that spending, but it doesn't quite add up. If Labour were elected the country would be very close to going bust - we're close now, and it'd be worse. So I'm curious, does this worry you?
(FWIW even Tory spending scares me)
Edit: Apologies I should have said 'Dr Palmer'
I try not to use Dr - always afraid of being asked to deliver a baby.
I'd like to see the promised itemised spending and revenue-raising catalogue promised by McDonell in the manifesto, and will reserve judgment till then. I'm not especially afraid of slower deficit reduction, any more than the Tories have been in practice, as opposed to rhetoric, but wouldn't favour just letting rip and hoping for the best. I think McDonnell is our most serious recent Shadow Chancellor, actually - note that he's been criticised by one of his former advisers as being "not left-wing enough" precisely because he's keen to make the sums add up.
Hope he's using traditional maths to do so, rather than Abbotmaths.
Mr forecast a couple of weeks ago was a blue majority of 60-80 seats. It might be a little bigger but I wonder if it'll reach the astronomical proportions some believe it will.
Yeah that was around my thinking but now I'm less sure.
Is that a 5.5% swing? Doesn't sound like a lot given the polls?
The key word is "over". It's a lot more than a 5.5% swing.
So what range is it? From a 15% lead to their highest possible lead? Or 15-19%? It isn't very clear what we are comparing the baseline as.
At a rough tilt, Slough is seat 163 in the ordered list and has just over 15% maj.
Seat 82 is Doncaster North. Which would be roughly the median seat here. Taken very very loosley and back of fag packet it means Ed is 43-39 ahead of the Tories there, and that's the average position in Labour's "safe" seats from this poll.
That isn't exact, and is very likely wrong but it isn't a million miles off the sentiment.
The Doncaster Mayoral election last week was not exactly close - Labour won on first preferences!
Good point Justin. I think you are right, Labour might still hold Doncaster North.
Jezza is either taking the piss now or the labour private polling has picked up that karl Marx is secretly dead popular with the public.
Whilst plainly a dumb thing to say politically, he did also mention David Ricardo and Adam Smith. And I think most economists would put Marx up there as highly influential. The man wasn't some thick Dave Spart-figure, yelling leftie slogans... he was a serious economist who had novel and well thought-through ideas, and who quite clearly influenced the economic debate. None of that is to say he was right.
Is that a 5.5% swing? Doesn't sound like a lot given the polls?
The key word is "over". It's a lot more than a 5.5% swing.
So what range is it? From a 15% lead to their highest possible lead? Or 15-19%? It isn't very clear what we are comparing the baseline as.
At a rough tilt, Slough is seat 163 in the ordered list and has just over 15% maj.
Seat 82 is Doncaster North. Which would be roughly the median seat here. Taken very very loosley and back of fag packet it means Ed is 43-39 ahead of the Tories there, and that's the average position in Labour's "safe" seats from this poll.
That isn't exact, and is very likely wrong but it isn't a million miles off the sentiment.
The Doncaster Mayoral election last week was not exactly close - Labour won on first preferences!
Good point Justin. I think you are right, Labour might still hold Doncaster North.
Not Don Valley though. The PB Tory activist surge will see TP over the line
Another Welsh poll out today....i dont know what it will show, but just want to point out that Plaid 'won' Rhondda, Caerphilly & Cardiff West last week, and were close in Neath. Independents also won in Blaenau Gwent who are likely to switch to Plaid.....could be worth a flutter on Plaid seat totals, 4
Plaid might just pick up Ceredgeion from the LDs, although I think that's an outside shot.
If so the swing will be nearer 5% than the 7.5% on Alastair's central projection.
But Scotland was a more remainy area which would suggest less of a Lab to Tory swing than Alistair's central projection, so a 5% swing would probably be predicted.
The swing in Scotland that matters is Lab/SNP because the SNP currently hold pretty much all the seats, certainly the ones that Labour are looking at recovering. As the SNP is also a remain party I don't think that explains the result. This may indeed make Scotland different but those betting on the bands should be aware that there is a chance of a small handful of Labour MPs from north of the border being added in. Its one of the reasons I am nervous about 170.
We need a Scotland GE poll. I suspect the SNP will do better in the GE than the locals.
I think the SNP are still pretty much set to hit c.43-45%.
As SCON move into a similar % share as the infamous Jim Murphy - I'm seeing some very similar MSN over exuberance from back then - plus the usual PB.com calls that we've passed "Peak SNP" etc etc.
Already we have some unseemly squabbles breaking out between SCON & SLAB in the likes of Edinburgh South & East Ren - much of it on social media. Ruth and SCON appear to have caught a case of "decapitationitis" as they publicly target high profile SNP scalps.
The SNP will defend aggressively - expect some pretty hard hitting attack ads - SCON & SLAB will see their loose words used against them.
The polls overstated the SNP and understated the Tories in the Holyrood elections last year. Do you think they'll be right this time?
Low turnout overlaid with the SCON demographic more likely to vote - could well explain a fair bit of the discrepancy with the polls. If turnout is again c.70% the polls should be accurate as they were for Scotland in GE 2015.
If so the swing will be nearer 5% than the 7.5% on Alastair's central projection.
But Scotland was a more remainy area which would suggest less of a Lab to Tory swing than Alistair's central projection, so a 5% swing would probably be predicted.
The swing in Scotland that matters is Lab/SNP because the SNP currently hold pretty much all the seats, certainly the ones that Labour are looking at recovering. As the SNP is also a remain party I don't think that explains the result. This may indeed make Scotland different but those betting on the bands should be aware that there is a chance of a small handful of Labour MPs from north of the border being added in. Its one of the reasons I am nervous about 170.
We need a Scotland GE poll. I suspect the SNP will do better in the GE than the locals.
I think the SNP are still pretty much set to hit c.43-45%.
As SCON move into a similar % share as the infamous Jim Murphy - I'm seeing some very similar MSN over exuberance from back then - plus the usual PB.com calls that we've passed "Peak SNP" etc etc.
Already we have some unseemly squabbles breaking out between SCON & SLAB in the likes of Edinburgh South & East Ren - much of it on social media. Ruth and SCON appear to have caught a case of "decapitationitis" as they publicly target high profile SNP scalps.
The SNP will defend aggressively - expect some pretty hard hitting attack ads - SCON & SLAB will see their loose words used against them.
The polls overstated the SNP and understated the Tories in the Holyrood elections last year. Do you think they'll be right this time?
Low turnout overlaid with the SCON demographic more likely to vote - could well explain a fair bit of the discrepancy with the polls. If turnout is again c.70% the polls should be accurate as they were for Scotland in GE 2015.
Comments
If you put the gun to my head I'd go with SLAB 2 seats. Which 2 I'm not sure. But 2 I think.
Labour were on 26 before the adjustment.
I've been knocking on doors in ECA nearly every day since the election was called. I'm far from being a paper candidate.
I infer that he's fuming at Cable and Olney.
For anyone who is interested, I had a hundred quid on Labour 100 - 149 seats on BF but cashed in for a very small profit last week.
That's because I think one of two things is going to happen, either the Labour vote holds up to something close to the current polling and puts Labour on around 160-170 seats, but if it falls much below that it could be a total collapse. Part of me thinks the sub 100 is more likely than 100 -149 band.
There are still some quite tasty odds on size of Con majority on Betfair Exchange at the monent - there's fifty quid waiting at 9.6 on Con majority 175-199 and another fifty quid waiting to back 200 - 224 at 19 - 21. This sort of majority would be consistent with Labour getting somewhere between 120 - 150 seats and as such I think represents fantastic value but as always DYOR...
Conservative 389 (58)
Labour 165 (-67)
Liberal Democrats 17 (8)
SNP 53 (-3)
Plaid Cymru 5 (2)
Green 2 (1)
DUP 8 (-1)
UUP 1 (-1)
Sinn Fein 5 (-)
SDLP 3 (-)
Independent 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)
Looks high for PC, who do significantly better at local elections. Also note he has found 17 potential LibDem seats despite not predicting any gains for them in the SW.
1924 46.8% 412 seats Tories to 151, and Ramsey got 33.3% in that election.
47 - 27 could produce something absolubtely mind blowing. Remember Labour lost Tees and the WM mayoralty, and the Tories PNS was nowhere near 47% last friday.
"All great economists influence all of our thinking. Yes I have read some of Adam Smith, I have read some of Karl Marx, I have looked at the words of Ricardo, I have looked at many, many others.
I don’t consider myself the world’s greatest intellectual but you learnt from everybody, don’t close your mind to the thoughts of others - that way we’re all better informed."
Fair enough IMO. And, yes, typical that Hawkes only quotes the Marx bit.
(Posters familiar with my record can decide for themselves how reliable this information is)
Tories targeting South West. Ahead in the council first pref votes
Explicitly not targeting South, hoping Ian Murray will deliver
Expecting West to go Lib Dem
Not as familiar with the Manchester MPs but Lucy Powell isn't a rabble rouser either
Instead of referendum vote, I've divided the 232 Labour seats in 2015 into:
1. 72 seats where the UKIP vote was more than 2/3rds of a standard deviation above its 2015 average (that is 17.60%+)
2. 62 seats where the UKIP vote was more than 2/3rds of a standard deviation below its 2015 average (that is 9.38%-)
3. 98 seats where the UKIP vote was nearer to its average.
Current polls indicate - broadly - a 5.5% Labour to Con swing. So I've applied an 8.5% swing to group 1, 2.5% swing to group 2, and 5.5% swing to group 3.
The results are 20 Tory gains in group 1, 10 Tory gains in group 2, and 29 Tory gains in group 3. Total of 59 gains - so 389 Tories, 193 Labour, majority 128.
Of course, there's also LD and SNP. I'd expect LDs to pick up a handful of Labour and Tory seats, but also Tories to pick up a handful of SNP seats. But this is on the margins of the bigger picture.
UNS would, I think, imply 48 Tory gains from Labour on a 5.5% swing, so this model involves 11 more, increasing the majority from 106 to 128.
The "surprise" Tory gains on this model (gained at >UNS) are Batley & Spen, Dudley N, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Mansfield, Newport E, Oldham E & Saddleworth, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Stalybridge & Hyde, Stoke Central, Stoke North, Wolverhampton NE, Workington, and Worsley & Eccles. The surprise Tory misses (not gained at <UNS) are Tooting, Westminster N, and Wirral S.
I'd like to see the promised itemised spending and revenue-raising catalogue promised by McDonell in the manifesto, and will reserve judgment till then. I'm not especially afraid of slower deficit reduction, any more than the Tories have been in practice, as opposed to rhetoric, but wouldn't favour just letting rip and hoping for the best. I think McDonnell is our most serious recent Shadow Chancellor, actually - note that he's been criticised by one of his former advisers as being "not left-wing enough" precisely because he's keen to make the sums add up.
As SCON move into a similar % share as the infamous Jim Murphy - I'm seeing some very similar MSN over exuberance from back then - plus the usual PB.com calls that we've passed "Peak SNP" etc etc.
Already we have some unseemly squabbles breaking out between SCON & SLAB in the likes of Edinburgh South & East Ren - much of it on social media. Ruth and SCON appear to have caught a case of "decapitationitis" as they publicly target high profile SNP scalps.
The SNP will defend aggressively - expect some pretty hard hitting attack ads - SCON & SLAB will see their loose words used against them.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/861575930879377409
I can see why the by-elections in the first two since 2015 change the assessment. There may be value in some of these, however.
Worth a pony at 10-1 for sure.
This poll has Tories unweighted at 51 and is upgrading Lab and LD (So I read) UKIP are being over estimated as they aren't standing in lots of seats
I object to Labour because they feel it's their right to spend your money if you're rich on their aggrandisement, but with a small amount finding its way to the undeserving.
I have no doubt that these things concern you too.
Edit: Also you didn't answer the question.
365, get it whilst the trader is out and about pounding the new Tory heartlands xD
Interesting article, Mr. Meeks.
Mr forecast a couple of weeks ago was a blue majority of 60-80 seats. It might be a little bigger but I wonder if it'll reach the astronomical proportions some believe it will.
A more likely Scottish result is SNP 47, down 11. With LD +2, Lab +1, and Con +6.
I struggle to see 17 LibDem seats. There are maybe a half dozen in deepest Remoania (plus the Scottish seats), but against that there are a couple of seats they could easily lose.
https://scontent-lht6-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/18341651_944986842271066_7173224545537757510_n.jpg?oh=0eae9c6f638132c8d9b6379f324a092e&oe=59B0EE65
Seat 82 is Doncaster North. Which would be roughly the median seat here. Taken very very loosley and back of fag packet it means Ed is 43-39 ahead of the Tories there, and that's the average position in Labour's "safe" seats from this poll.
That isn't exact, and is very likely wrong but it isn't a million miles off the sentiment.
Edited extra bit: still just one market up on Ladbrokes for Spain...
https://twitter.com/ruthdavidsonmsp/status/861586946811985920
(edit per previous poster: Median 9 seat loss for the SNP)
No bets on Con seats or vote share, though.
Mr. Quidder, fair enough.
Still I suppose we have to make compromises in those parts.
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/861577867641200640
He's one of us. One of us.
He looks quite dapper when he needs to.
#MakeDoncasterGreatAgain