The latest Guardian/ICM poll is out, and it suggests the Conservatives have a record 22-point lead over Labour. Here are the figures.
Conservatives: 49% (up 2 since Guardian/ICM last week)
Labour: 27% (down 1)
Lib Dems: 9% (up 1)
Ukip: 6% (down 2)
Greens: 3% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 22 points
The combined Tory/UKIP share at 55% is one of the highest I've seen. Suggests the Tories aren't just picking up votes from former UKIP supporters.
The Tory High Command must be thanking John McDonnell - for many Labour waverers his interview with Marr yesterday must have been the last straw.
Several people I know who aren't that bothered about politics have started conversations with "have you seen that fucking idiot Labour politician... " recently, and not always the same one!
This looks like a fairer test than some of the spin we've seen:
twitter.com/YouGov/status/861618328191815680
The reality is most people in the UK don't even follow UK politics that closely, let alone foreign elections. They will have heard lots of bad things about Le Pen, but I doubt many really know much about Macron to be able to express a proper opinion.
I only have a outline idea and I post on a politics betting forum.
Even the French people at work had incomplete information - they had no idea that En Marche was putting up a wide slate of candidates for the assembly, for example
Betfair had Labour at 11/8 at between 160 and 199. It looked reasonable to me.
I believe Corals currently have Labour 150-199 at 11/8 which gives a little more room. I agree this is good value. It's not free money, but I have to say it's over 50% likelihood.
"As Mr Meeks remarks, the tide is indeed high and I've been dying to post this all day before the thread disappears:"
and I have been waiting for someone to post that to give the excuse to post this. Mr. Punter should look away or be prepared to bathe his wrists in cold water.
I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
"As Mr Meeks remarks, the tide is indeed high and I've been dying to post this all day before the thread disappears:"
and I have been waiting for someone to post that to give the excuse to post this. Mr. Punter should look away or be prepared to bathe his wrists in cold water.
I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
I call bullshit.
Because on Saturday Clive Lewis was getting married in London.
I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
I call bullshit.
Because on Saturday Clive Lewis was getting married in London.
I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
I call bullshit.
Because on Saturday Clive Lewis was getting married in London.
I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
I call bullshit.
Because on Saturday Clive Lewis was getting married in London.
I don't follow the logic whereby Vince Cable (who celebrates his 74th birthday tomorrow) is the 1/2 favourite to recapture his Twickenham seat. Nationally the share of the vote has swung more towards the Tories than the LibDems since GE 2015, plus his comments recommending LibDems to vote Labour won't impress those LibDem/Tory waverers in his constituency of which there must be a considerable number in such a marginal seat. Martin Baxter makes it a comfortable Tory hold with a 68% chance of them winning. although his methodology takes no account of the impact of the particular personalities involved. I've had a few quid on the incumbent Ms Tania Mathias at odds of 6/4. DYOR.
I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
I call bullshit.
Because on Saturday Clive Lewis was getting married in London.
It wouldn't make a vast difference, would it? I mean the overall picture of Labour on the decline, the SNP rising before 2015, peaking in 2015, and falling back to the advantage of the Tories is broadly the same.
Although I do tend to agree that graphs such as this that casually ask people to extrapolate forward in a smooth curve are pretty dodgy. People tend to over-weight the "trend" and under-weight reversion to the mean.
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
Just had word from Mystic Meg, she tells me that when the yellow line starts rising substantially after 8th June, it will suddenly become completely inappropriate to compare different types of elections.
Betfair had Labour at 11/8 at between 160 and 199. It looked reasonable to me.
I believe Corals currently have Labour 150-199 at 11/8 which gives a little more room. I agree this is good value. It's not free money, but I have to say it's over 50% likelihood.
That certainly looks a darn site better bet than their 5/6 odds on Labour winning >157.5 seats.
Ladbrokes of course offer the same prices on these markets.
Just had word from Mystic Meg, she tells me that when the yellow line starts rising substantially after 8th June, it will suddenly become completely inappropriate to compare different types of elections.
In my experience there are three types of paper candidate. Those that take pride in following HQ instructions such that sometimes they never even set foot in their constituency during the campaign. Those that resign themselves to dutifully fulfilling their duties as a candidate, going to meetings and knocking on doors more or less on their own. And those that go off piste and try and run an energetic local campaign with whatever resources they can drag in from the local area.
I'd much prefer the middle and latter candidates than the first. The first is a party drone. The latter two trying their best to hold up democracy.
And if I ever was a paper candidate and was told to NOT campaign in the seat I was selected for, it would be the last time I'd work for that party again.
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
It's the hope that gets you.
If the Tories beat Salmond, Lord I might break a rib laughing.
"First Minister Carwyn Jones has launched Welsh Labour's general election campaign - making no reference to UK party leader Jeremy Corbyn in a speech to activists in Cardiff"
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
I think Banff & Buchan may well drop, it is the most eurosceptic and leave seat in the whole of Scotland. I'm on at 6-1
I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
I call bullshit.
Because on Saturday Clive Lewis was getting married in London.
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
I think Banff & Buchan may well drop, it is the most eurosceptic and leave seat in the whole of Scotland. I'm on at 6-1
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
It's the hope that gets you.
If the Tories beat Salmond, Lord I might break a rib laughing.
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!
I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happens
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!
I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happens
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
If the Scots Tories have a stellar night on June 8th they might, just might, knock out Angus Robertson. But the main challenger to Salmond last time was a Lib Dem. He really ought to be considered safe.
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
I think Banff & Buchan may well drop, it is the most eurosceptic and leave seat in the whole of Scotland. I'm on at 6-1
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
I think Banff & Buchan may well drop, it is the most eurosceptic and leave seat in the whole of Scotland. I'm on at 6-1
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!
I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happens
Salmond filleted.
Your coat, sir.
As Punmaster General of PB, if not the internet, I'm really wanting to use that.
I've been wondering when we would be seeing the campaigning that breaks all the rules. Do we have very long to wait, yet?
In the 2015 GE, labour set itself a target of 4 million 'conversations with voters' or 'voter contacts' and in the end announced that they managed to have over 5 million.
Has there been an announcement of what the target is this time?
I've been wondering when we would be seeing the campaigning that breaks all the rules. Do we have very long to wait, yet?
In the 2015 GE, labour set itself a target of 4 million 'conversations with voters' or 'voter contacts' and in the end announced that they managed to have over 5 million.
Has there been an announcement of what the target is this time?
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
I think Banff & Buchan may well drop, it is the most eurosceptic and leave seat in the whole of Scotland. I'm on at 6-1
Where's the 6/1?
No longer available. 11/4 is best now available. I struggle to see that as value. Salmond is a tough old campaigner and knows how to lick a Solero. I know these decapitations do sometimes work out, but there is an element of wish-fulfillment in the betting that means the value isn't there.
Jobs for the Labour party boys on the safe labour job merry go round. Best of luck to Danczuk.
Tony Lloyd's quite a good candidate, isn't he?
Maybe, its still a Labour merry-go-round though. I'd like to see Danczuk win. For all their bluster none of the other moderates have ripped Corbyn quite like him, and none of them have had the bollocks to run as an independent. He's had a few issues, but it's Danczuk for me in Rochdale !
(I've not bet on the seat either way as I have no idea there)
Justin seems to have rather a lot in common with Prof Nuttall.
You may say what you wish but you really should not assume that others share your apparent desire to live in a world of fantasy and wishful thinking. I hace come across Lewis on several occasions in the past - though I live 100 yds over the border in Norwich North.
He "invented" capitalism as we understand it now. So, yes, a great economist who influences all of our thinking"
Seems fairly uncontroversial to state he has influenced us in a great many ways.
He was the pioneer in identifying the potential weaknesses and downsides of capitalism, for which he deserves credit. but he actually didn't get very far in working out how what followed capitalism would or could work - in essence he identified the problem but not the solution. He has got a raw deal from history as a result of the appalling downsides of other people's solutions to his problems. Academically therefore McDonnell does have a point, despite his comment being appalling politics.
Although I doubt too many Labour waverers watch Marr on a Sunday morning.
When will the LDified leaflets go out "Only UKIP can stop the Tories"?
I don't find this sort of article all that interesting. Journos constantly trek off to X town knowing exactly what story they want to write. Any halfwit can spend a few hours and find a few anecdotes that allegedly "prove" a point.
Jobs for the Labour party boys on the safe labour job merry go round. Best of luck to Danczuk.
Tony Lloyd's quite a good candidate, isn't he?
Maybe, its still a Labour merry-go-round though. I'd like to see Danczuk win. For all their bluster none of the other moderates have ripped Corbyn quite like him, and none of them have had the bollocks to run as an independent. He's had a few issues, but it's Danczuk for me in Rochdale !
(I've not bet on the seat either way as I have no idea there)
He threatened to be an independent to try and force them to keep him as Labour nominee, and they have called his bluff. Standing and being defeated is in his financial interest because the exit terms are better for sitting MPs that lose their seats. So I don't really think it demonstrates any confidence or bravado on his part? Even by Labour standards he's not a nice guy.
Just had word from Mystic Meg, she tells me that when the yellow line starts rising substantially after 8th June, it will suddenly become completely inappropriate to compare different types of elections.
Any views on if and how the million new additions to the electoral roll since the announcement of the election will affect the results?
Is this an unusually high number of new signatures? Is this kids (pro-Corbyn), past non-voters (UKIP/Brexiters, Corbyn?) or what? Will they vote and if so how?
Jobs for the Labour party boys on the safe labour job merry go round. Best of luck to Danczuk.
Tony Lloyd's quite a good candidate, isn't he?
Safe pair of hands. Would point out though that Rochdale voters in recent times - Danczuk, Rowen, Lorna Fitzsimons, Cyril Smith - have been very partial to candidates from Rochdale. Liz Lynne the exception for one term.
Regrettably, coming from Merseyside badly taints my opinion of their seat losses. Round here, swings to the 'Tories' are low and just don't happen. I think the only seat that should be lost here is Wirral West (And the UKPR forum for that seat suggests madly enough that Margaret Greenwood might not actually lose it - with a majority of just 417 and supporting Corbyn - she should be toast). Likewise Wirral South should be very much in play but a local friend reports that Alison McGovern is well liked and has built up a personal vote, which along with the Merseyside effect should see her safe.
Wirral South is No. 46 on the Conservative target list. Those on here talking about 'only' 50 seat losses for Labour should see her gone too, but I don't think she will be.
I do suspect that I see a strong local 'We vote Labour because we vote Labour' effect but I also wonder if that won't translate nationally too, to save Labour from a sub 200 seat meltdown.
I reached 146 that I just could not imagine falling. I had another 26 that I thought Labour were 90% certs to hold. The remainder were the ones at significant risk.
The one caveat is how many Labour supporters will actually get to the booths and vote.
The commitment to vote levels appear to be dreadful in the few demographics where Labour lead. That's what might trigger a deeper collapse.
Betfair had Labour at 11/8 at between 160 and 199. It looked reasonable to me.
Probably no group of seats has swung more heavily to Labour over the past 50 years than Merseyside.
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!
I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happens
Salmond filleted.
I was thinking more along the lines of "Salmond farmed out", which has a certain ring to it doncha think?
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...
On the face of it, there is very little difference between current Tory policies re: Europe and FN in France.
What's not to like?
Even 10 years ago very few people other than Jack Boot skinheads would openly admit to voting BNP.
What UKIP with its EU-bashing agenda has done is give respectability to openly articulate anti foreigner sentiments in the name of immigration. Basically these people are racists and always have been.
When will the LDified leaflets go out "Only UKIP can stop the Tories"?
I don't find this sort of article all that interesting. Journos constantly trek off to X town knowing exactly what story they want to write. Any halfwit can spend a few hours and find a few anecdotes that allegedly "prove" a point.
The NYT has got into considerable trouble with this in the past few years. There is a belief in the editorial room and on the staff that they 'set the narrative', rather than 'report the news'. Thus, if the news does not fit the narrative set by the NYT, it is not reported. And confirmation bias does not begin to describe the way they collect the evidence for their 'reporting'.
Regrettably, coming from Merseyside badly taints my opinion of their seat losses. Round here, swings to the 'Tories' are low and just don't happen. I think the only seat that should be lost here is Wirral West (And the UKPR forum for that seat suggests madly enough that Margaret Greenwood might not actually lose it - with a majority of just 417 and supporting Corbyn - she should be toast). Likewise Wirral South should be very much in play but a local friend reports that Alison McGovern is well liked and has built up a personal vote, which along with the Merseyside effect should see her safe.
Wirral South is No. 46 on the Conservative target list. Those on here talking about 'only' 50 seat losses for Labour should see her gone too, but I don't think she will be.
I do suspect that I see a strong local 'We vote Labour because we vote Labour' effect but I also wonder if that won't translate nationally too, to save Labour from a sub 200 seat meltdown.
I reached 146 that I just could not imagine falling. I had another 26 that I thought Labour were 90% certs to hold. The remainder were the ones at significant risk.
The one caveat is how many Labour supporters will actually get to the booths and vote.
The commitment to vote levels appear to be dreadful in the few demographics where Labour lead. That's what might trigger a deeper collapse.
Betfair had Labour at 11/8 at between 160 and 199. It looked reasonable to me.
Probably no group of seats has swung more heavily to Labour over the past 50 years than Merseyside.
There was a banner with Corbyn and John McDonnell on the Kop yesterday. Doubt you'd see that many other grounds.
Jobs for the Labour party boys on the safe labour job merry go round. Best of luck to Danczuk.
Tony Lloyd's quite a good candidate, isn't he?
Safe pair of hands. Would point out though that Rochdale voters in recent times - Danczuk, Rowen, Lorna Fitzsimons, Cyril Smith - have been very partial to candidates from Rochdale. Liz Lynne the exception for one term.
Tony Lloyd is from Manchester.
I am sure Mrs Duffy would put the kettle on if any of the candidates fancy a chat about their immigration policy?
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!
I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happens
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!
I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happens
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...
On the face of it, there is very little difference between current Tory policies re: Europe and FN in France.
What's not to like?
Even 10 years ago very few people other than Jack Boot skinheads would openly admit to voting BNP.
What UKIP with its EU-bashing agenda has done is give respectability to openly articulate anti foreigner sentiments in the name of immigration. Basically these people are racists and always have been.
And very few people would actually secretly vote BNP in the privacy of the voting booth, either. That's why it isn't a thing any more.
You really ought to consider adopting the wikipedia editorial policy of assuming good faith - in this case, assuming that concern over immigration is actually concern over immigration, not a mask for rabid racial hatred on the part of a contemptible prole which is easily penetrated by your x-ray vision idiot cunning.
Regrettably, coming from Merseyside badly taints my opinion of their seat losses. Round here, swings to the 'Tories' are low and just don't happen. I think the only seat that should be lost here is Wirral West (And the UKPR forum for that seat suggests madly enough that Margaret Greenwood might not actually lose it - with a majority of just 417 and supporting Corbyn - she should be toast). Likewise Wirral South should be very much in play but a local friend reports that Alison McGovern is well liked and has built up a personal vote, which along with the Merseyside effect should see her safe.
Wirral South is No. 46 on the Conservative target list. Those on here talking about 'only' 50 seat losses for Labour should see her gone too, but I don't think she will be.
I do suspect that I see a strong local 'We vote Labour because we vote Labour' effect but I also wonder if that won't translate nationally too, to save Labour from a sub 200 seat meltdown.
I reached 146 that I just could not imagine falling. I had another 26 that I thought Labour were 90% certs to hold. The remainder were the ones at significant risk.
The one caveat is how many Labour supporters will actually get to the booths and vote.
The commitment to vote levels appear to be dreadful in the few demographics where Labour lead. That's what might trigger a deeper collapse.
Betfair had Labour at 11/8 at between 160 and 199. It looked reasonable to me.
Probably no group of seats has swung more heavily to Labour over the past 50 years than Merseyside.
There was a banner with Corbyn and John McDonnell on the Kop yesterday. Doubt you'd see that many other grounds.
The Labour party is almost a religion up in Liverpool. I'm not knocking it, but Merseyside and Inner London are two places I'm definitely not lumping on the Tories.
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!
I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happens
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...
On the face of it, there is very little difference between current Tory policies re: Europe and FN in France.
What's not to like?
Even 10 years ago very few people other than Jack Boot skinheads would openly admit to voting BNP.
What UKIP with its EU-bashing agenda has done is give respectability to openly articulate anti foreigner sentiments in the name of immigration. Basically these people are racists and always have been.
lol
so the suppression of any debate on the issue had nothing to do with it ?
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...
On the face of it, there is very little difference between current Tory policies re: Europe and FN in France.
What's not to like?
Even 10 years ago very few people other than Jack Boot skinheads would openly admit to voting BNP.
What UKIP with its EU-bashing agenda has done is give respectability to openly articulate anti foreigner sentiments in the name of immigration. Basically these people are racists and always have been.
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
The SLab Gordon candidate from 2015, Braden Davy, won't be standing again, as he's now a new intake SCon councillor.
Malcolm Bruce (Baron Bruce of Bennachie to plebs like me), the last LD mp for the constituency, has been quite disobliging about Tessy's UKIP, so I don't think they'll be rolling over.
Regrettably, coming from Merseyside badly taints my opinion of their seat losses. Round here, swings to the 'Tories' are low and just don't happen. I think the only seat that should be lost here is Wirral West (And the UKPR forum for that seat suggests madly enough that Margaret Greenwood might not actually lose it - with a majority of just 417 and supporting Corbyn - she should be toast). Likewise Wirral South should be very much in play but a local friend reports that Alison McGovern is well liked and has built up a personal vote, which along with the Merseyside effect should see her safe.
Wirral South is No. 46 on the Conservative target list. Those on here talking about 'only' 50 seat losses for Labour should see her gone too, but I don't think she will be.
I do suspect that I see a strong local 'We vote Labour because we vote Labour' effect but I also wonder if that won't translate nationally too, to save Labour from a sub 200 seat meltdown.
I reached 146 that I just could not imagine falling. I had another 26 that I thought Labour were 90% certs to hold. The remainder were the ones at significant risk.
The one caveat is how many Labour supporters will actually get to the booths and vote.
The commitment to vote levels appear to be dreadful in the few demographics where Labour lead. That's what might trigger a deeper collapse.
Betfair had Labour at 11/8 at between 160 and 199. It looked reasonable to me.
Probably no group of seats has swung more heavily to Labour over the past 50 years than Merseyside.
My quick glance over the local elections showed that ~20% of the previous labour vote had simply disappeared over the past 5 years.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppYgrdJ0pWk
Who is Steve Hawkes anyway? Should I know? Should anybody?
https://twitter.com/populuspolls/status/861625739376021507
If she played her cards right, she could have me.
If the old rules are defunct, presumably there will be cross-party support for no further action over those pesky Tory overspending cases.
and I have been waiting for someone to post that to give the excuse to post this. Mr. Punter should look away or be prepared to bathe his wrists in cold water.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGU_4-5RaxU
Hold that thought! I'm sure that there is a good slogan in there somewhere!
Because on Saturday Clive Lewis was getting married in London.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/norwich-south-hopeful-clive-lewis-gets-married-in-houses-of-parliament-after-snap-election-caused-him-to-cancel-his-stag-do-1-5006418
Martin Baxter makes it a comfortable Tory hold with a 68% chance of them winning. although his methodology takes no account of the impact of the particular personalities involved.
I've had a few quid on the incumbent Ms Tania Mathias at odds of 6/4. DYOR.
Although I do tend to agree that graphs such as this that casually ask people to extrapolate forward in a smooth curve are pretty dodgy. People tend to over-weight the "trend" and under-weight reversion to the mean.
Ladbrokes of course offer the same prices on these markets.
And if I ever was a paper candidate and was told to NOT campaign in the seat I was selected for, it would be the last time I'd work for that party again.
If the Tories beat Salmond, Lord I might break a rib laughing.
AntiCorbyn spin from the BBC!
Salmond filleted.
Was with Paddy.
Burnham effectively took Lloyd's old job on Friday.
Has there been an announcement of what the target is this time?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/08/hartlepool-angry-voters-make-fertile-ground-for-ukip
When will the LDified leaflets go out "Only UKIP can stop the Tories"?
"236......47 trillion.......3639 and a half "
I'd like to see Danczuk win.
For all their bluster none of the other moderates have ripped Corbyn quite like him, and none of them have had the bollocks to run as an independent.
He's had a few issues, but it's Danczuk for me in Rochdale !
(I've not bet on the seat either way as I have no idea there)
I hace come across Lewis on several occasions in the past - though I live 100 yds over the border in Norwich North.
Although I doubt too many Labour waverers watch Marr on a Sunday morning.
This was interesting :
http://labourhame.com/the-sturgeon-surge-may-be-over-but-this-is-a-strategy-nearing-completion/
Is this an unusually high number of new signatures? Is this kids (pro-Corbyn), past non-voters (UKIP/Brexiters, Corbyn?) or what? Will they vote and if so how?
Tony Lloyd is from Manchester.
What UKIP with its EU-bashing agenda has done is give respectability to openly articulate anti foreigner sentiments in the name of immigration. Basically these people are racists and always have been.
https://twitter.com/HetanShah/status/860945907063418881
Graved Alax
You really ought to consider adopting the wikipedia editorial policy of assuming good faith - in this case, assuming that concern over immigration is actually concern over immigration, not a mask for rabid racial hatred on the part of a contemptible prole which is easily penetrated by your x-ray vision idiot cunning.
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/861648864532725761
so the suppression of any debate on the issue had nothing to do with it ?
Malcolm Bruce (Baron Bruce of Bennachie to plebs like me), the last LD mp for the constituency, has been quite disobliging about Tessy's UKIP, so I don't think they'll be rolling over.