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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The tide is high. How many Labour MPs will be holding on after
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The tide is high. How many Labour MPs will be holding on after 8 June?
Everyone seems to agree: Labour are in for a pummelling at the upcoming general election. The opinion polls, the local election results and the anonymous comments from politicians of all parties on the campaign trail all point in the same direction. Even the newspaper pundits, constantly looking for a new angle, are unanimously predicting a Conservative landslide. Few, however, have tried to put numbers on the eventual outcome.
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OT but I've just doubled-down on Lib Dem 1-10 seats following Vincent this morning
It is quite likely that wealthier Remain voters in the home counties vote Tory already, while poorer Leave voters were Labour/kipper.
But a big hurrah for Sir Vince.
As for not closing out my Tory buy, I think the only person that can ruin that is Alison Saunders.
I can't back those Labour bands though - there's a real chance of sub 100. London is the key there, and I've not seen anything to convince me that Labour won't collapse in London.
A good analysis Mr Meeks.
I'm wary of seat bands until I get a sense of whether this starts to snowball. I don't think they can go under 120 but clearly 2015 shows us the power of a movement against an entrenched party.
Could I ask you a question? I know you're a man that is broadly in favour of Corbyn etc. Does it worry you that every day they announce spending ideas? I know there's some attempts to identify funding for that spending, but it doesn't quite add up. If Labour were elected the country would be very close to going bust - we're close now, and it'd be worse. So I'm curious, does this worry you?
(FWIW even Tory spending scares me)
Edit: Apologies I should have said 'Dr Palmer'
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/anti-brexit-parties-would-win-150-fewer-seats-than-pro-leave-par/amp/
The Conservatives have chosen barrister & former Exeter City Council member James Taghdissian as their PPC for Exeter.
http://www.devonlive.com/exeter-conservatives-choose-local-barrister-to-take-on-ben-bradshaw-in-the-general-election/story-30316531-detail/story.html
Good afternoon, everybody.
There is much in the "gateway drug" analysis. UKIP voters coming from Labour in 2015 (or local elections around then), and leaving to the Conservatives now.
So the formula I would suggest is that there will be some basic Labour to Tory swing regardless (Brexit isn't the only show in town - Corbyn/May is just plainly more of a mismatch than Miliband/Cameron, regardless of June 2016). Then there will be an addition to that based on the size of the UKIP vote in 2015. It's a bit crude, but that's broadly how I'd design a modified-UNS calculator.
1/33 for Con majority
1/100 - yes - for Con most seats
A paltry 1/20 for May to be PM on June 10th
Mind boggling odds that must be unprecedented anywhere in Western democratic history.
Edit: I see that the erudite Sir Norfolk beat me to it.
My best bet in 2015 was against Cable in Twickenham, and I'd already bet against him before today's news.
The LD vote in London will vote Tory in my view. As I posted a couple of weeks ago I see Mrs May as leading a 'national unity' government, albeit comprised of only Tories - but anyway a government whose task is to achieve a good Brexit.
I quite like my bet of Tories>50% (@3-1)
(From an occasional PBer on twitter)
Jeremy's still going to be their number one.
Just imagine if the boundary changes were added in too. If there are expected Labour gains in 2022 they might come in handy to thwart a Labour route to a majority.
The most striking thing about that Welsh poll was the dramatic difference in Tory/Labour lead beweetn stated intention for the local elections and the national. If this is replicated across the UK then I tend to agree that Alastair may be being too optimistic on their behalf. On the other hand voters like a contest and in previous 'walkover' elections such as in the 1980s there was often a small swing back to the opposition in the final week.
IIRC when the 1st results from the North-east came in last time, the labour share of the vote held up very well. (In fact it held up pretty well all through the country, it was only the Tory shellacking of the Lib-Dem vote that gained Cameron the undisputed keys to number 10.)
The Tory gain, this time, appears to be mainly from the UKIP supporters, Labour may very well have been down to its bedrock in 2015 and the (low) Red-Ukip --> Labour swingback will ameliorate the effects.
Mind you, the way the LDs and Labour are treading through the election minefield makes me wonder whether either of them will get through the other side.
That is not to say that the Tories WONT get a big majority - the re-alignment of Scotland on a Unionist/ Independent theme (with Labour stuck in the middle) is obviously going to help
https://twitter.com/stvcolin/status/861567086769971200
- Con up 10%, Lab down 4%
- 35% of UKIP votes to Con (with the rest remaining with UKIP or being equally distributed)
- 30% of Leave voters in excess of 50% also transferring from Lab to Con
OK, the assumptions are heroic, but my aim is simply to distribute the latest national polling numbers among the 632 GB seats using the local election results as a rough guide to non-uniformity. It is not pretty for the red team...
I can't see how, but still...
The big question is how permament will this move be? Many kippers are definitely only lending May their vote and many traditional Labour voters will only stay at home because of Corbyn. It's reasonable to assume a significant unwind of the current perfect alignment of the stars for the Tories at the subsequent GE. Especially if Labour's new leader is not a far lefty.
Pretty accurate from the mash. Although I think given how shit 2016 was politically, liberals can be afforded one celebration and night of gloating!
Mind you, it seems like MLP was celebrating just as hard last night...
https://twitter.com/alexmaless/status/861312652320149504
LAB. 24.3% 1 20.2% 1 0 +1 2
LIB.. 7.5% 1 6.8% 6 0 +6 7
UKIP 1.6% 0 1.6% 0 0 +0 0
Green 1.3% 0 4.1% 0 0 +0 0
SNP 50.0% 56 32.3% 0 20 -20 36
Minor 0.3% 0 9.7% 0 0 +0 0
Also, in all the froth, I tbink that Labour loyalty will stifle some anxieties over the leadership. I suspect 50 net losses is quite likely, and maybe even fewer.
I would cite Wales in support of this, with annoyed Labour voters not turning Tory.
Scotland may be different because of the Independence issue that dominates everything but the Labour name holds a lot of support, particularly, I suspect, when they know that there is no danger of that idiot being in charge of anything. My guess is that the recent polling showing Labour's vote hardening into the high 20s is probably right. If so the swing will be nearer 5% than the 7.5% on Alastair's central projection. I agree with him in those circumstances that 170 is a realistic outcome, possibly even a few more. I am tempted by the 151-170 band but my fear of such a bet is on the upside for Labour, not the downside.
Conservatives: 49% (up 2 since Guardian/ICM last week)
Labour: 27% (down 1)
Lib Dems: 9% (up 1)
Ukip: 6% (down 2)
Greens: 3% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 22 points
LAB: 27% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
UKIP: 6% (-2)
GRN: 3% (-1)
ICM
Locals =/= the General. Lab 28 Tories 26 in Welsh local poll, same sample gave 40-30 for the General.
We can identify areas of strength (Lib Dem Edinburgh West) but to read straight across to seat count is dangerous.
Labour would be a shoo in to gain the Gower if we went just off the locals, I expect Byron will extend his majority there. Similiarly Lib Dem/Tory battle in Eastleigh and so on and so forth.
The odds are where they are because we've had good government in the last 7 years. The much maligned Cameron and Osbourne really delivered. May is a very capable PM building on those achievements. Opposition parties on the other hand have looked increasingly out-of-touch. I don't think these things are in question.
But Scotland was a more remainy area which would suggest less of a Lab to Tory swing than Alistair's central projection, so a 5% swing would probably be predicted.
I could be wrong, but I thought that Hanretty's estimates were based on a combination of the local authority vote, some demographic assumptions, and the UKIP vote in a given constituency.
In the last weeks, we’ve been paying close attention to the individual value of each of our post data collection methodological techniques, to see how far each is actually pushing the vote shares in different directions compared to raw data. Much more on this will be revealed at a later date, but the evidence so far is that the techniques are working in exactly in the ways, and with the relative strengths (for the main two parties) we were looking for.
Indeed, although this is an exercise in the absurd, if we had applied these techniques to our final prediction poll before the 2015 election, instead of predicting a 1-point Labour win as we did, we would have predicted a much more accurate election outcome.
But of course we have sought to correct an error that has affected the main two parties, and now we live under significantly different electoral conditions. The performance of the Liberal Democrats in the council elections – at least in terms of vote shares rather than seats – implies we have a new, but real problem with them if PNS is correct. That said, my view prior to 2015 was that we were over-stating the extent of their fall, but in the event we were largely not.
Some readers may feel my pain.
It would be rash for a pollster to panic themselves into methodological revision at this point. Too often of late, we have seen last-minute methods moves that worsened predictive performance, and brought associated accusations of herding. It would be wrong for any pollster with their reputation on the line to rule out methodological tweaks, especially if it’s obvious that final poll samples are clearly out of kilter, but better to trust in the methodology than to rush into error.
It'll never be a precise science no matter what is used.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/861461123463352320
Although the UK was already in a fairly special situation in the EU prior to the deal, by not being part of the Euro. That alone meant there was a good case for some flexibility regarding the UKs membership conditions.
Anyway, it looks like the EU is going to be quite happy to give us 'no deal' if that is what we want so that's good.
Fantastic analysis, in sharp contrast to the comments this morning on "Leavers" and "Fascists". A huge number of us voted to leave the EU because of their desire to end up as a single European country, led by the unaccountable and unsackable bureaucracy of J-C Drunker, and with an inward-facing EU view of the world. The views of the Michael Goves and Dan Hannans are not the same as the Nigel Farages and Marine Le Pens, the former want to trade freely with the world and take advantage of our strengths in specialised goods, services, language and time zone to improve our position in the top half dozen countries in the world. We remain positive for a post-Brexit future.
130 holy feck!
Edi South (Held, but could be vulnerable to the Tories from third or SNP through the middle)
26. East Renfrewshire Majority 3718 (6.6%) <- Scottish Torie surge
44. Edinburgh North & Leith Majority 5597 (9.6%) <- SNP held up here
60. East Lothian Majority 6803 (11.5%) <- I think this could drop
64. Paisley & Renfrewshire South Majority 5684 (12.3%) <- Potentially ? Stretch though. SNP holding up up in Greater glasgow/Dougie personal vote unwind
84. Aberdeen South Majority 7230 (14.8%) <- Tory target
89. Edinburgh South West Majority 8135 (15.8%) <- Tory target
92. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)* <- Tory target
94. Rutherglen & Hamilton West Majority 9975 (17.4%) <- Getting into the realm of monstrous swings, SLAB looks too weak to manage these.
It isn't a change election for the SLAB/SNP dynamic as the last one was, and alot of the easier targets have the Tory klaxon surge.
The trends Alistair describes in his header don't apply to Scotland. There is no UKIP support to speak of; Labour was already at the floor in 2015; independence, not Brexit, is the key motivator. Above all, there is a totally different dominant party in the SNP.
Labour lead 43-39 in seats where they hold a majority of over 15%
We need a London poll.