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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The tide is high. How many Labour MPs will be holding on after

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554

    NEW THREAD

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    MTimT said:

    Any views on if and how the million new additions to the electoral roll since the announcement of the election will affect the results?

    Is this an unusually high number of new signatures? Is this kids (pro-Corbyn), past non-voters (UKIP/Brexiters, Corbyn?) or what? Will they vote and if so how?

    I suspect you'd find it is higher than most previous elections as there were changes in 2014 designed to make it much easier to register online (but with individual rather than household registration designed to combat fraud). It's also the case that an election was unexpected, so quite a few people may not have bothered until it was called.

    But I don't think it will have a big differential impact. A lot of people (all parties) just take the opportunity of an election to sort out their registration status, perhaps having moved recently etc. It may be that more younger people move about more, and they may be a little more left-inclined than the population as a whole. But, equally, there is more enthusiasm around the Tories just now (and to a lesser extent the LDs - bit of a membership surge anyway). So it will all probably balance out.
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    BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    chestnut said:

    BigRich said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I've been wondering when we would be seeing the campaigning that breaks all the rules. Do we have very long to wait, yet?
    In the 2015 GE, labour set itself a target of 4 million 'conversations with voters' or 'voter contacts' and in the end announced that they managed to have over 5 million.

    Has there been an announcement of what the target is this time?
    image

    "236......47 trillion.......3639 and a half "
    For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.

    Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
    Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
    https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,373
    edited May 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I've been wondering when we would be seeing the campaigning that breaks all the rules. Do we have very long to wait, yet?
    Isn't a usual rule of campaigning to try to increase your own vote by showing how qualified you are for office?
    That was then. This is now.

    If the old rules are defunct, presumably there will be cross-party support for no further action over those pesky Tory overspending cases.
    "That was then but this is now" - ABC

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1kJyLGUKxE
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,373
    nunu said:

    isam said:

    I'm sort of assuming now that quite a few leading Lib Dems have sold their seat count on the spreads.

    What do you make of 11/4 over 50% vote share for The Tories?

    I haven't bet on it but I think that's pretty fair. Given the Lib Dems' determination to ruin their campaign at every turn, UKIP's orderly winding-up and severe doubts over the reliability of Labour's voters, the Conservatives might well outperform polls in practice. The vote share has to go somewhere.
    imagine if they get 52%. LOL.
    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE! :lol:
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    PendduPenddu Posts: 265

    chestnut said:

    BigRich said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I've been wondering when we would be seeing the campaigning that breaks all the rules. Do we have very long to wait, yet?
    In the 2015 GE, labour set itself a target of 4 million 'conversations with voters' or 'voter contacts' and in the end announced that they managed to have over 5 million.

    Has there been an announcement of what the target is this time?
    image

    "236......47 trillion.......3639 and a half "
    For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.

    Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
    Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
    https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
    Well it is in Philippines so she has a point...
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