I am still puzzled at the Lib Dems getting 18% in the vote share. Something is not right. The Tories are a bit too low. I think the earlier report was correct.
Is the French media allowed to report that they aren't allowed to report the contents of the hacked emails?
The electoral commission has been busy. After last issuing a press release on 26 April, they have now issued seven in the last three days:
Communiqué de presse n°9 du 4 mai 2017 - Interdiction de diffuser des messages ayant le caractère de propagande électorale les samedi 6 et dimanche 7 mai 2017
Communiqué de presse n°10 du 4 mai 2017 - Interdiction de diffuser des sondages les samedi 6 et dimanche 7 mai 2017
Communiqué de presse n° 11 du 4 mai 2017 - Interdiction de diffuser des résultats partiels du second tour de l’élection présidentielle avant le dimanche 7 mai 2017 à 20 heures
Communiqué de presse n°12 du 4 mai 2017 - Avis au parquet à la suite d’une saisine par un candidat
Communiqué de presse n°13 du 5 mai 2017 - Suites données à la saisine de la Commission nationale de contrôle par le mandataire de Madame Le Pen
Communiqué de presse n°14 du 6 mai 2017 - Recommandation aux médias suite à l'attaque informatique dont a été victime l'équipe de campagne de M. Macron
Communiqué de presse n°15 du 6 mai 2017 - Suites de l’attaque informatique qu’a subie l’équipe de campagne de M. Macron
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic. No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
In that case which bloody fool said this?
“We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”
She was hardly going to say 'Vote Labour' was she?
Excellent article Alistair, personally I think the LDs will pick up enough Remain seats they used to hold to get to about 15 to 20 seats when you add up Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park, Twickenham, Southwark and Old Bermondsey, Lewes, Cambridge, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon, Cheltenham, Bristol West and Edinburgh West you get to about that level though they may lose Leave voting Carshalton
I think that analysis places waaayy too much emphasis on the referendum. If Carshalton is lost then I doubt very much even Bath will be won.
Not wishing to argue too much with Alastair on his analysis but there are a couple of things he has missed . The Lib Dem vote on Thursday was up around 4% on average on 2013 and around 8% on average on 2015 . There were variations though , the North of England Staffs , Notts , Lincs and northwards of there had a much smaller increase around half that . Other areas showed a much bigger increase Norfolk 6% , Dorset 7% Glos 8% on 2013 and 12 % plus on 2015 GE are typical . This does not seem to be totally correlated with whether an area voted Leave or Remain . Some posters have made the point that LD support is always higher in local elections . That is in fact false It was not true in 1983 for example nor in 2009 compared to the 2010 GE The local elections do give clues on where LD gains are possible and where they are not and these often contradict the seat odds currently available . Do your own research - lots of it .
Here's some research.
Norfolk Mark Senior prediction - Con 47, Lab 17, LibDem 13 Actual result - Con 55, Lab 17, LibDem 11 Difference - Con +8, Lab --, LibDem -2
Dorset Mark Senior prediction - Con 25, Lab 4, LibDem 16 Actual result - Con 32, Lab 1, LibDem 11 Difference - Con +7, Lab -3, LibDem -5
Gloucestershire Mark Senior prediction - Con 24, Lab 9, LibDem 17 Actual result - Con 31, Lab 5, LibDem 14 Difference - Con +7, Lab -4, LibDem -3
Fair comment , in my defense the forecasts were made prior to the GE being announced .
there must be equal treatment between all EU and UK nationals in the UK
I have no problem with that.
But currently there is unequal treatment between EU and UK nationals in the UK when it comes to non-EU family members.
Extra-territorial jurisdiction for the ECJ seems the obvious sticking point to me.
I read that as slightly more nuanced - in the EU:
For UK citizens in the EU, the European Court of Justice will play its role to ensure the application of the withdrawal agreement.
However: Similarly in the UK, the rights in the withdrawal agreement will need to be directly enforceable and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice maintained.
Which leaves some wiggle room for joint arbitration - between the UK Supreme Court and the ECJ, for example.
Clearly in a joint agreement we can't have 'one side decides'....
So far Barnier has been one of the grown ups looking to make it work, long may that continue.
Carlotta, It's simple. Just give the UK national the same rights. Why can't he/she bring family members. Is it something to be proud about that we keep families separate ?
They just taken the individual candidate with the highest vote share to colour the ward. Checked across a bunch of wards.
You mean the winner under FPTP rules?
Yeah, that's not helpful for the upcoming GE AT ALL...
Pretty sure parties wouldn't stand two candidates in the same seat in a fptp election.
Poor quality trolling.
Poor quality trolling indeed.
Nevertheless FPTnP district and borough council elections see multiple slates of party candidates all the time.....
Can you explain why you always put an "n" in FPTP?
Because - as others have said - the unique characteristic of our voting system is that it actually has no winning post.
What does the "n" stand for?
None? No? Non-existent? Nowhere to be found? Not present?
I don't mind what the n stands for. I do mind that people are so lazy that they use a name that makes no sense whatsoever.
The name does make sense. The post is the election and whoever came first wins. Hence first past the post.
Specifically, the post is the number of seats for a majority in the parliament/council, right? As opposed to inferior voting systems where a majority is supposed to be impossible and the parties have to stitch up a deal behind closed doors after the people have voted...
No - if we used AV/PR the threshold for a majority would still be 325 seats.
"In medicine, the natural order is generally diagnosis, treatment and then a prognosis. The Labour party haven't agreed on the first yet.
The diagnosis is an inoperable tumour - one Jeremy Corbyn. There may be other minor ailments but they are irrelevant to life expectancy. However, the labour Party members are in denial still. It's the fault of the media, the Blairites, the idiot electors. Change them and all is well.
Jezza will go nowhere until the members reach the correct diagnosis or the patient dies. Prognosis - not good."
Nah. Corbyn is just a metasis and an operable one at that.
It's the lymphoma (disconnection from the vast majority of the population) that will kill them eventually
Hey Charles, did you read that article on the Garden Bridge from onlondon.co.uk?
there must be equal treatment between all EU and UK nationals in the UK
I have no problem with that.
But currently there is unequal treatment between EU and UK nationals in the UK when it comes to non-EU family members.
Extra-territorial jurisdiction for the ECJ seems the obvious sticking point to me.
Mrs May's government has said it will ratify the Unified Patent Court agreement. This gives the ECJ the role of interpreting EU law when there is uncertainty over it. No reason why it can't have a similar role on citizens' rights, post-Brexit. UK courts can refer questions to it, get an answer then issue a judgement.
How does that work if the UK government passes a law that conflicts with a ruling of the ECJ (eg on employment, or pensions?)
A UK court will rule that it is unconstitutional if the ECJ judgement was handed down before we Brexit. Post-Brexit ECJ rulings will not carry any weight. The key is what applied on the day we leave. UK courts may want to refer to the ECJ on questions around that.
Any economists out there able to sensibly estimate the net effect of a 1% income tax rate rise?
If i am taxed more out of my income, I have less to spend in shops etc, so the net effect is not what it seems clearly.
For the record, I believe I am taxed enough already thanks Mr Farron :-/ NHS needs reform more than it needs new cash hosed at it. Also IMHO a solution needs to be found outside of party politics
It's hardly hosed in cash. And most costs are staff pay which have gone up by 1% a year Max resulting in staff shortages. But OK, magic efficiency tree.
LD proposal involves only more cash
Nothing about reform, restructure, different ways of working, nothing.
So the cash would just be handed over, no strings. And you seem to prefer that it would disappear in salaries, not for patient care.
awesome
We haven't seen manifestos yet. I would encourage higher salaries for areas with staff shortages, you can't offer patient care without staff. I would also loosen procurement rules where possible so the NHS can spend money on doctors instead of lawyers
"While it may have matter more in certain pockets, it is important not to exaggerate the over scale of the “Ukip-as-a-gateway-drug” phenomena. For example, only a tiny fraction (around half a percent) have taken the path from Labour to Ukip to the Conservatives through the last seven years.
"This is barely noticeable compared to the bigger switch taking place over that period – those moving straight from Labour to the Conservatives. Since 2010, approaching 4 per cent of the electorate have gone from red to blue. So although Ukip has acted as a “gateway drug” to the Conservatives for many Labour voters, Jeremy Corbyn’s team needs to be more worried about those that are moving straight to the hard stuff."
Edit: I reckoned that there *MUST* be direct Lab-Con migration going on at some level, but if it's anything like 4% then, even taking their starting point as EdM's performance rather than Brown's, that drops Labour down below 27%. This is before you compute the net effects of movement between Labour and Ukip and Labour and the Lib Dems, the latter of which at least seems likely to result in a further reduction in Labour share, or begin to calculate the total increase in the Conservative vote share. Very grim for Labour.
I am still puzzled at the Lib Dems getting 18% in the vote share. Something is not right. The Tories are a bit too low. I think the earlier report was correct.
Con 40, Lab 28, LD 15
The Lib Dems got 13.7% in England in 2013, this year it was around 18% Cornwall website is still broken so I cannot give you final figures for this year but as posted earlier on average the results are just over 4% this year than in 2013
"In medicine, the natural order is generally diagnosis, treatment and then a prognosis. The Labour party haven't agreed on the first yet.
The diagnosis is an inoperable tumour - one Jeremy Corbyn. There may be other minor ailments but they are irrelevant to life expectancy. However, the labour Party members are in denial still. It's the fault of the media, the Blairites, the idiot electors. Change them and all is well.
Jezza will go nowhere until the members reach the correct diagnosis or the patient dies. Prognosis - not good."
Nah. Corbyn is just a metasis and an operable one at that.
It's the lymphoma (disconnection from the vast majority of the population) that will kill them eventually
Hey Charles, did you read that article on the Garden Bridge from onlondon.co.uk?
No?
Here it is. This is a great website IMO for London politics, there is a fantastic article on Corbyn/Islington on there as well
there must be equal treatment between all EU and UK nationals in the UK
I have no problem with that.
But currently there is unequal treatment between EU and UK nationals in the UK when it comes to non-EU family members.
Extra-territorial jurisdiction for the ECJ seems the obvious sticking point to me.
I read that as slightly more nuanced - in the EU:
For UK citizens in the EU, the European Court of Justice will play its role to ensure the application of the withdrawal agreement.
However: Similarly in the UK, the rights in the withdrawal agreement will need to be directly enforceable and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice maintained.
Which leaves some wiggle room for joint arbitration - between the UK Supreme Court and the ECJ, for example.
Clearly in a joint agreement we can't have 'one side decides'....
So far Barnier has been one of the grown ups looking to make it work, long may that continue.
Carlotta, It's simple. Just give the UK national the same rights. Why can't he/she bring family members. Is it something to be proud about that we keep families separate ?
The Tories put it in their 2015 manifesto and won an election on it.
We don't 'keep families separate' - they separate when one of them moves to the UK
Is the French media allowed to report that they aren't allowed to report the contents of the hacked emails?
The electoral commission has been busy. After last issuing a press release on 26 April, they have now issued seven in the last three days:
Communiqué de presse n°9 du 4 mai 2017 - Interdiction de diffuser des messages ayant le caractère de propagande électorale les samedi 6 et dimanche 7 mai 2017
Communiqué de presse n°10 du 4 mai 2017 - Interdiction de diffuser des sondages les samedi 6 et dimanche 7 mai 2017
Communiqué de presse n° 11 du 4 mai 2017 - Interdiction de diffuser des résultats partiels du second tour de l’élection présidentielle avant le dimanche 7 mai 2017 à 20 heures
Communiqué de presse n°12 du 4 mai 2017 - Avis au parquet à la suite d’une saisine par un candidat
Communiqué de presse n°13 du 5 mai 2017 - Suites données à la saisine de la Commission nationale de contrôle par le mandataire de Madame Le Pen
Communiqué de presse n°14 du 6 mai 2017 - Recommandation aux médias suite à l'attaque informatique dont a été victime l'équipe de campagne de M. Macron
Communiqué de presse n°15 du 6 mai 2017 - Suites de l’attaque informatique qu’a subie l’équipe de campagne de M. Macron
Taking the two issued today:
* the commission ASKS the press, especially their websites, not to print the content of the supposedly hacked material, a part of which they say is "probably false".
Then they had a meeting.
* Now they underline that distributing or redistributing "such data, obtained fraudulently, and which may be mixed with false information", could get someone an awfully hard smack on the bottom.
* They call on all "actors" present on the internet and in social networks - first of all the media, but citizens too - to show a spirit of responsibility and NOT TO CIRCULATE THIS CONTENT, in order not to spook the vote and also so as not to risk having their collars felt.
Seriously you've got to wonder why they don't go the whole hog and entitle their announcement "The State is in Danger". Why not plaster the country with posters saying "Citizens! You are warned! Do not circulate hacked information about Emmanuel Macron. It may be mixed with false statements. You risk jail if you disobey!"?
That WSJ article on Venezuela linked by @AlastairMeeks below is harrowing in the extreme. It sounds like Ethiopia 1984 all over again. There would be a revolution if only the revolutionaries could find enough food for their soldiers.
I'm not a fan of a bloated aid budget, but when a country can't feed its own children it's time for international help to be sent in.
On a similar note, there are forecasts of frost and snow across large parts of Russia and former USSR countries in the next few days. The crops were planted some weeks ago now, there is a reasonable chance of a very poor harvest in the autumn.
Corbyn isn’t going to save the NHS. He’s not going to build thousands of new affordable homes, he’s not going to make schools into palaces, universities free, pensioners wealthy or end poverty. He’s not going to do any of those things for four reasons:
1. He’s incompetent. Massively, massively incompetent. He can’t do a no-seats-on-the-train stunt without falling flat on his face. He can’t fill a shadow cabinet. He can’t plan. And he’s surrounded himself with people whose incompetence equals his own. Between them they can’t run a government and an economy, they can’t even run a political party. He’s a protester. He complains about things being wrong. He’s never had to make things right, and he doesn’t know how to do it.
I am still puzzled at the Lib Dems getting 18% in the vote share. Something is not right. The Tories are a bit too low. I think the earlier report was correct.
Con 40, Lab 28, LD 15
Remember, this is an estimate of what the national shares would be if there were local elections in the whole country. It doesn't estimate what would have happened in a general election.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic. No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
I find the media coverage of the Scottish results laughable. SNP has lost 7 seats from a very high peak.
They are 7 metres below the Everest summit whereas the Tories are , at best, on base camp 2 which is being spun as "victory".
Yes, the Tories have done very well. But they have just swapped places with Labour hardly hurting the SNP.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
I am still puzzled at the Lib Dems getting 18% in the vote share. Something is not right. The Tories are a bit too low. I think the earlier report was correct.
Con 40, Lab 28, LD 15
Remember, this is an estimate of what the national shares would be if there were local elections in the whole country. It doesn't estimate what would have happened in a general election.
OK. I got it. But where the hell did they get all those votes. They lost seats for pete's sake.
I am still puzzled at the Lib Dems getting 18% in the vote share. Something is not right. The Tories are a bit too low. I think the earlier report was correct.
Con 40, Lab 28, LD 15
Remember, this is an estimate of what the national shares would be if there were local elections in the whole country. It doesn't estimate what would have happened in a general election.
True. Comparing locals to locals, the LibDems are up 7% since 2015, and up 4% since the wards were last fought in 2013 (the greater rise in Tory share since 2013 explaining why more LibDem votes turned into fewer seats). the +4%/+7% yardstick suggests we are looking at a national GE vote share of around 14-15%.
Excellent article Alistair, personally I think the LDs will pick up enough Remain seats they used to hold to get to about 15 to 20 seats when you add up Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park, Twickenham, Southwark and Old Bermondsey, Lewes, Cambridge, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon, Cheltenham, Bristol West and Edinburgh West you get to about that level though they may lose Leave voting Carshalton
I think that analysis places waaayy too much emphasis on the referendum. If Carshalton is lost then I doubt very much even Bath will be won.
Bath unitary authority was not up yesterday but Cheltenham was as part of Gloucestershire and is similar and the LDs won most seats there, while Tories tended to hold on or make gains in the South and South West in former LD seats which voted Leave that was not the case in Remain areas like Cheltenham or Lewes or Oxford West and Abingdon
Pretty despondent after the football last night, what a soulless place to watch football.
I hope you took my advice and laid Spurs @ 2/5
Most of my West Ham mates backed the 8/1, cant believe I didn't really, that was an amazing price.
It was a ridiculous price given West Ham's record against Spurs.
In the last nine match ups, Spurs have won just one game comfortably.
Should have backed Lanzini - nine goals in fourteen London derbies.
Paddy Power just gave me 250-1 on Spurs not finishing in the top two. If we come 3rd and City come 2nd, I am on for £5,000. If we stay where we are, the 7-1 I got on the Happy Hammers leaves me even for my annual Tottenham choke betting spree. I feel a lot better having sorted all that out!!
Wouldn't Spurs have to lose all their remaining games and either Liverpool or Man City when all their remaining games for that to happen ?
And Spurs haven't choked - to choke you have to be top of the table and then fall apart (Newcastle 1996 for example).
Spurs fit into a different category - lightweights who play pretty football but never win anything.
Spurs folded after Leicester won the league last season. The players lost their drive. It's possible it could happen again, and both City & Liverpool have relatively easy run-ins. I have two bets of £10 - one on a non-top 2 finish; the other one on third behind City. I'll probably lose and will be happy to do so - but £2,500 or £5,000 if there is a collapse would be nice.
Choke is short-hand. Spurs have done very well to match Chelsea (just about). Our wage bill is the sixth highest in the country and much closer to the 7th than the 5th. We've played great stuff for long parts of the season, especially since Xmas. A slow start with too many draws is what did for us. The challenge now is to keep the team together. Every starter would earn more elsewhere. We also have to strengthen. But this is the best situation the club has found itself in since the 1980s. I expect it all to go wrong!
I am still puzzled at the Lib Dems getting 18% in the vote share. Something is not right. The Tories are a bit too low. I think the earlier report was correct.
Con 40, Lab 28, LD 15
Remember, this is an estimate of what the national shares would be if there were local elections in the whole country. It doesn't estimate what would have happened in a general election.
OK. I got it. But where the hell did they get all those votes. They lost seats for pete's sake.
As discussed extensively below, in our system there is not necessarily much correlation between votes and seats.
To answer your question specifically:
- in some marginal seats the LibDems gained votes but the Tories gained even more, so gains against the Tories were limited and a few defending cllrs lost their seats - in many hopeless seats the LibDem vote rose from below to above 10%
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic. No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
In that case which bloody fool said this?
“We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”
They did, the Tories gained the most seats on the night while the SNP lost seats but it is the combined unionist share which is key overall
Excellent article Alistair, personally I think the LDs will pick up enough Remain seats they used to hold to get to about 15 to 20 seats when you add up Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park, Twickenham, Southwark and Old Bermondsey, Lewes, Cambridge, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon, Cheltenham, Bristol West and Edinburgh West you get to about that level though they may lose Leave voting Carshalton
I think that analysis places waaayy too much emphasis on the referendum. If Carshalton is lost then I doubt very much even Bath will be won.
Bath unitary authority was not up yesterday but Cheltenham was as part of Gloucestershire and is similar and the LDs won most seats there, while Tories tended to hold on or make gains in the South and South West in former LD seats which voted Leave that was not the case in Remain areas like Cheltenham or Lewes or Oxford West and Abingdon
Labour could win Stevenage if we were going entirely by locals though
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic. No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
In that case which bloody fool said this?
“We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”
She was hardly going to say 'Vote Labour' was she?
Lots off squirrels about today....
There was always the 'don't give a stoopid hostage to fortune' option.
But at least we now have a definitive statement from one of the May ultras that her words are meaningless.
Offtopic, does anyone know who's behind the Maomentum Twitter account? Fantastic parody and cutting comment, with half their retweets being genuine Corbynistas and the other half being parody - and no idea which is which! https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/860394101627289600
there must be equal treatment between all EU and UK nationals in the UK
I have no problem with that.
But currently there is unequal treatment between EU and UK nationals in the UK when it comes to non-EU family members.
Extra-territorial jurisdiction for the ECJ seems the obvious sticking point to me.
I read that as slightly more nuanced - in the EU:
For UK citizens in the EU, the European Court of Justice will play its role to ensure the application of the withdrawal agreement.
However: Similarly in the UK, the rights in the withdrawal agreement will need to be directly enforceable and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice maintained.
Which leaves some wiggle room for joint arbitration - between the UK Supreme Court and the ECJ, for example.
Clearly in a joint agreement we can't have 'one side decides'....
So far Barnier has been one of the grown ups looking to make it work, long may that continue.
Carlotta, It's simple. Just give the UK national the same rights. Why can't he/she bring family members. Is it something to be proud about that we keep families separate ?
The Tories put it in their 2015 manifesto and won an election on it.
We don't 'keep families separate' - they separate when one of them moves to the UK
So if your nephew / son /daughter married a Brazilian, he/she cannot bring him/her to the UK. Are you really happy with that ? Or, are you saying only certain categories of UK citizens are subject to that restriction ?
I am still puzzled at the Lib Dems getting 18% in the vote share. Something is not right. The Tories are a bit too low. I think the earlier report was correct.
Con 40, Lab 28, LD 15
Remember, this is an estimate of what the national shares would be if there were local elections in the whole country. It doesn't estimate what would have happened in a general election.
OK. I got it. But where the hell did they get all those votes. They lost seats for pete's sake.
In most of the seats the Lib Dems lost their vote actually increased , sadly the Conservative vote increased by more
Excellent article Alistair, personally I think the LDs will pick up enough Remain seats they used to hold to get to about 15 to 20 seats when you add up Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park, Twickenham, Southwark and Old Bermondsey, Lewes, Cambridge, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon, Cheltenham, Bristol West and Edinburgh West you get to about that level though they may lose Leave voting Carshalton
I think that analysis places waaayy too much emphasis on the referendum. If Carshalton is lost then I doubt very much even Bath will be won.
The idea that for swathes of the population their identity has been reshaped by the referendum is likely to be tested to destruction next month. The 48% don't exist any more.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic. No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
I find the media coverage of the Scottish results laughable. SNP has lost 7 seats from a very high peak.
They are 7 metres below the Everest summit whereas the Tories are , at best, on base camp 2 which is being spun as "victory".
Yes, the Tories have done very well. But they have just swapped places with Labour hardly hurting the SNP.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
I don't know if anyone's added up first preference votes, but the SNP probably won about a third of the total. Adding in pro-SNP independents, that suggests they'll get about 40% in June, which is good, but a definite step back from 2015.
Not wishing to argue too much with Alastair on his analysis but there are a couple of things he has missed . The Lib Dem vote on Thursday was up around 4% on average on 2013 and around 8% on average on 2015 . There were variations though , the North of England Staffs , Notts , Lincs and northwards of there had a much smaller increase around half that . Other areas showed a much bigger increase Norfolk 6% , Dorset 7% Glos 8% on 2013 and 12 % plus on 2015 GE are typical . This does not seem to be totally correlated with whether an area voted Leave or Remain . Some posters have made the point that LD support is always higher in local elections . That is in fact false It was not true in 1983 for example nor in 2009 compared to the 2010 GE The local elections do give clues on where LD gains are possible and where they are not and these often contradict the seat odds currently available . Do your own research - lots of it .
Here's some research.
Norfolk Mark Senior prediction - Con 47, Lab 17, LibDem 13 Actual result - Con 55, Lab 17, LibDem 11 Difference - Con +8, Lab --, LibDem -2
Dorset Mark Senior prediction - Con 25, Lab 4, LibDem 16 Actual result - Con 32, Lab 1, LibDem 11 Difference - Con +7, Lab -3, LibDem -5
Gloucestershire Mark Senior prediction - Con 24, Lab 9, LibDem 17 Actual result - Con 31, Lab 5, LibDem 14 Difference - Con +7, Lab -4, LibDem -3
Fair comment , in my defense the forecasts were made prior to the GE being announced .
I did say at the time that your predictions were brave.
The change in opinion polls from 2013 to this year showed that there would be big Conservative gains and big Labour losses - I remember John Cutice mentioning a 12% swing in the polls over a month ago.
Excellent article Alistair, personally I think the LDs will pick up enough Remain seats they used to hold to get to about 15 to 20 seats when you add up Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park, Twickenham, Southwark and Old Bermondsey, Lewes, Cambridge, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon, Cheltenham, Bristol West and Edinburgh West you get to about that level though they may lose Leave voting Carshalton
I think that analysis places waaayy too much emphasis on the referendum. If Carshalton is lost then I doubt very much even Bath will be won.
Bath unitary authority was not up yesterday but Cheltenham was as part of Gloucestershire and is similar and the LDs won most seats there, while Tories tended to hold on or make gains in the South and South West in former LD seats which voted Leave that was not the case in Remain areas like Cheltenham or Lewes or Oxford West and Abingdon
Labour could win Stevenage if we were going entirely by locals though
Is the French media allowed to report that they aren't allowed to report the contents of the hacked emails?
The electoral commission has been busy. After last issuing a press release on 26 April, they have now issued seven in the last three days:
Communiqué de presse n°9 du 4 mai 2017 - Interdiction de diffuser des messages ayant le caractère de propagande électorale les samedi 6 et dimanche 7 mai 2017
Communiqué de presse n°10 du 4 mai 2017 - Interdiction de diffuser des sondages les samedi 6 et dimanche 7 mai 2017
Communiqué de presse n° 11 du 4 mai 2017 - Interdiction de diffuser des résultats partiels du second tour de l’élection présidentielle avant le dimanche 7 mai 2017 à 20 heures
Communiqué de presse n°12 du 4 mai 2017 - Avis au parquet à la suite d’une saisine par un candidat
Communiqué de presse n°13 du 5 mai 2017 - Suites données à la saisine de la Commission nationale de contrôle par le mandataire de Madame Le Pen
Communiqué de presse n°14 du 6 mai 2017 - Recommandation aux médias suite à l'attaque informatique dont a été victime l'équipe de campagne de M. Macron
Communiqué de presse n°15 du 6 mai 2017 - Suites de l’attaque informatique qu’a subie l’équipe de campagne de M. Macron
Taking the two issued today:
* the commission ASKS the press, especially their websites, not to print the content of the supposedly hacked material, a part of which they say is "probably false".
Then they had a meeting.
* Now they underline that distributing or redistributing "such data, obtained fraudulently, and which may be mixed with false information", could get someone an awfully hard smack on the bottom.
* They call on all "actors" present on the internet and in social networks - first of all the media, but citizens too - to show a spirit of responsibility and NOT TO CIRCULATE THIS CONTENT, in order not to spook the vote and also so as not to risk having their collars felt.
Seriously you've got to wonder why they don't go the whole hog and entitle their announcement "The State is in Danger". Why not plaster the country with posters saying "Citizens! You are warned! Do not circulate hacked information about Emmanuel Macron. It may be mixed with false statements. You risk jail if you disobey!"?
Excellent article Alistair, personally I think the LDs will pick up enough Remain seats they used to hold to get to about 15 to 20 seats when you add up Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park, Twickenham, Southwark and Old Bermondsey, Lewes, Cambridge, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon, Cheltenham, Bristol West and Edinburgh West you get to about that level though they may lose Leave voting Carshalton
I think that analysis places waaayy too much emphasis on the referendum. If Carshalton is lost then I doubt very much even Bath will be won.
There's always a couple of places where the LibDems do better than expected.
Excellent article Alistair, personally I think the LDs will pick up enough Remain seats they used to hold to get to about 15 to 20 seats when you add up Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park, Twickenham, Southwark and Old Bermondsey, Lewes, Cambridge, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon, Cheltenham, Bristol West and Edinburgh West you get to about that level though they may lose Leave voting Carshalton
I think that analysis places waaayy too much emphasis on the referendum. If Carshalton is lost then I doubt very much even Bath will be won.
The idea that for swathes of the population their identity has been reshaped by the referendum is likely to be tested to destruction next month. The 48% don't exist any more.
There are nevertheless shifts taking place in the voting habits of population cohorts that thirty years ago would mostly be defined by class. The Tory appeal is growing amongst what pollsters would call C1C2s and the LibDem appeal amongst ABs (probably mostly Bs). The LibDems will do relatively better in areas with younger/more educated/more affluent populations - so I'd suggest both Bath and Carshalton are in play and the local Referendum result is a red herring.
there must be equal treatment between all EU and UK nationals in the UK
I have no problem with that.
But currently there is unequal treatment between EU and UK nationals in the UK when it comes to non-EU family members.
Extra-territorial jurisdiction for the ECJ seems the obvious sticking point to me.
I read that as slightly more nuanced - in the EU:
For UK citizens in the EU, the European Court of Justice will play its role to ensure the application of the withdrawal agreement.
However: Similarly in the UK, the rights in the withdrawal agreement will need to be directly enforceable and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice maintained.
Which leaves some wiggle room for joint arbitration - between the UK Supreme Court and the ECJ, for example.
Clearly in a joint agreement we can't have 'one side decides'....
So far Barnier has been one of the grown ups looking to make it work, long may that continue.
Carlotta, It's simple. Just give the UK national the same rights. Why can't he/she bring family members. Is it something to be proud about that we keep families separate ?
The Tories put it in their 2015 manifesto and won an election on it.
We don't 'keep families separate' - they separate when one of them moves to the UK
So if your nephew / son /daughter married a Brazilian, he/she cannot bring him/her to the UK. Are you really happy with that ? Or, are you saying only certain categories of UK citizens are subject to that restriction ?
All UK citizens face restrictions on bringing foreign spouses to the UK. The same restrictions do not apply to EU nationals resident in the UK - I'm not happy with that.
If you want to change it, secure the election of a government that will.
I am still puzzled at the Lib Dems getting 18% in the vote share. Something is not right. The Tories are a bit too low. I think the earlier report was correct.
Con 40, Lab 28, LD 15
Remember, this is an estimate of what the national shares would be if there were local elections in the whole country. It doesn't estimate what would have happened in a general election.
OK. I got it. But where the hell did they get all those votes. They lost seats for pete's sake.
Vote shares by county
Dorset 25.3% plus 6.5% on 2013 Glos 27.5% plus 7.1% on 2013 Somerset 30.8% plus 4.6% on 2013 Warwicks 16.0% plus 2.9% on 2013 Hants 29.9% plus 8.3% on 2013 Essex 14.5% plus 2.9% on 2013 etc etc
Excellent article Alistair, personally I think the LDs will pick up enough Remain seats they used to hold to get to about 15 to 20 seats when you add up Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park, Twickenham, Southwark and Old Bermondsey, Lewes, Cambridge, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon, Cheltenham, Bristol West and Edinburgh West you get to about that level though they may lose Leave voting Carshalton
I think that analysis places waaayy too much emphasis on the referendum. If Carshalton is lost then I doubt very much even Bath will be won.
There's always a couple of places where the LibDems do better than expected.
And a couple of places where they do much worse.
True. I was looking through results recently and in almost every GE there is at least one non-held seat where the Liberal/LibDem vote share rises by more than 20%.
They just taken the individual candidate with the highest vote share to colour the ward. Checked across a bunch of wards.
You mean the winner under FPTP rules?
Yeah, that's not helpful for the upcoming GE AT ALL...
Pretty sure parties wouldn't stand two candidates in the same seat in a fptp election.
Poor quality trolling.
Poor quality trolling indeed.
Nevertheless FPTnP district and borough council elections see multiple slates of party candidates all the time.....
Can you explain why you always put an "n" in FPTP?
Because - as others have said - the unique characteristic of our voting system is that it actually has no winning post.
What does the "n" stand for?
None? No? Non-existent? Nowhere to be found? Not present?
I don't mind what the n stands for. I do mind that people are so lazy that they use a name that makes no sense whatsoever.
The name does make sense. The post is the election and whoever came first wins. Hence first past the post.
Specifically, the post is the number of seats for a majority in the parliament/council, right? As opposed to inferior voting systems where a majority is supposed to be impossible and the parties have to stitch up a deal behind closed doors after the people have voted...
No - if we used AV/PR the threshold for a majority would still be 325 seats.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic. No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
I find the media coverage of the Scottish results laughable. SNP has lost 7 seats from a very high peak.
They are 7 metres below the Everest summit whereas the Tories are , at best, on base camp 2 which is being spun as "victory".
Yes, the Tories have done very well. But they have just swapped places with Labour hardly hurting the SNP.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
That's not accurate. The Tories did hurt the SNP in several areas of Scotland but the SNP had contra gains against SLAB in the west to compensate. They were more significantly down before Glasgow came through.
Next month they will win more than half the Scottish seats, maybe even 2/3, but it will be nothing like 2015. And the Indy share of the vote is falling. For Indyref 2 that is what matters.
there must be equal treatment between all EU and UK nationals in the UK
I have no problem with that.
But currently there is unequal treatment between EU and UK nationals in the UK when it comes to non-EU family members.
Extra-territorial jurisdiction for the ECJ seems the obvious sticking point to me.
Mrs May's government has said it will ratify the Unified Patent Court agreement. This gives the ECJ the role of interpreting EU law when there is uncertainty over it. No reason why it can't have a similar role on citizens' rights, post-Brexit. UK courts can refer questions to it, get an answer then issue a judgement.
How does that work if the UK government passes a law that conflicts with a ruling of the ECJ (eg on employment, or pensions?)
A UK court will rule that it is unconstitutional if the ECJ judgement was handed down before we Brexit. Post-Brexit ECJ rulings will not carry any weight. The key is what applied on the day we leave. UK courts may want to refer to the ECJ on questions around that.
Theresa May is going to include in her manifesto the end of free movement of labour, leaving the single market and the ECJ. I have little doubt that at the end of March 2019 the ECJ will have no further say in UK laws.
There could be a transistional period where a joint ECJ - Supreme Court roll could be envisaged but it will not be for long.
If Theresa May achieves a good majority expect her to take on the EU rejecting their financial and silly demands for EU citizens to have lifetime rights underscored by the ECJ.
Furthermore expect her to be ready to terminate discussions with the Commission until they put a free trade deal on the table and go even further by scaling the issue right up to the Council of Ministers.
In other words she will call their bluff empowered by the mandate of the GE
Just got canvassed by Labour (Greenwich & Woolwich) - never happened last time.
The conversation went:
Him: "I'm here on behalf of the Labour Party" Me: "Two words: Jeremy Corbyn. Thank you." *shuts door*
I hope that's enough to get me put down as "against".
Lol, I'm back in London this weekend, I hope some Labour types come to the door.
Saw some in Acton the other day. I felt sorry for them and just smiled as sweetly as I could without saying anything. Didn't really want to make their day any worse than it already was.
All UK citizens face restrictions on bringing foreign spouses to the UK. The same restrictions do not apply to EU nationals resident in the UK
Nor do they apply to British EU nationals who are resident in the EU outside of Britain (the Surinder Singh judgment). The government is discriminating against its own citizens.
I am still puzzled at the Lib Dems getting 18% in the vote share. Something is not right. The Tories are a bit too low. I think the earlier report was correct.
Con 40, Lab 28, LD 15
Remember, this is an estimate of what the national shares would be if there were local elections in the whole country. It doesn't estimate what would have happened in a general election.
OK. I got it. But where the hell did they get all those votes. They lost seats for pete's sake.
They piled them up moving from poor third places to decent thirds or seconds.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic. No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
I find the media coverage of the Scottish results laughable. SNP has lost 7 seats from a very high peak.
They are 7 metres below the Everest summit whereas the Tories are , at best, on base camp 2 which is being spun as "victory".
Yes, the Tories have done very well. But they have just swapped places with Labour hardly hurting the SNP.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
I don't know if anyone's added up first preference votes, but the SNP probably won about a third of the total. Adding in pro-SNP independents, that suggests they'll get about 40% in June, which is good, but a definite step back from 2015.
I have been reading so much in the last two days that local votes and GE votes cannot be compared. So it cannot be done for Tories, but it can be for the SNP ? In 2015, some NO voters also voted SNP, otherwise they could not have received 50% against 45% YES in the ref.
They just taken the individual candidate with the highest vote share to colour the ward. Checked across a bunch of wards.
You mean the winner under FPTP rules?
Yeah, that's not helpful for the upcoming GE AT ALL...
Pretty sure parties wouldn't stand two candidates in the same seat in a fptp election.
Poor quality trolling.
Poor quality trolling indeed.
Nevertheless FPTnP district and borough council elections see multiple slates of party candidates all the time.....
Can you explain why you always put an "n" in FPTP?
Because - as others have said - the unique characteristic of our voting system is that it actually has no winning post.
What does the "n" stand for?
None? No? Non-existent? Nowhere to be found? Not present?
I don't mind what the n stands for. I do mind that people are so lazy that they use a name that makes no sense whatsoever.
The name does make sense. The post is the election and whoever came first wins. Hence first past the post.
Specifically, the post is the number of seats for a majority in the parliament/council, right? As opposed to inferior voting systems where a majority is supposed to be impossible and the parties have to stitch up a deal behind closed doors after the people have voted...
No - if we used AV/PR the threshold for a majority would still be 325 seats.
"Plurality system" is a much better name for FPTP
I favour "winner wins".
Ignoring the humour, a tautology is not of course a definition!
"Winner takes all" could be seen as more accurate - but that of course only applies at constituency level. Another peculiarity of the system is that whoever comes second can actually win - cf. President Trump
If Theresa May achieves a good majority expect her to take on the EU rejecting their financial and silly demands for EU citizens to have lifetime rights underscored by the ECJ.
Furthermore expect her to be ready to terminate discussions with the Commission until they put a free trade deal on the table and go even further by scaling the issue right up to the Council of Ministers.
In other words she will call their bluff empowered by the mandate of the GE
It sounds quite likely but the problem is that Theresa May is the one who is bluffing. Expect national humiliation on a scale beyond imagination.
I find the media coverage of the Scottish results laughable. SNP has lost 7 seats from a very high peak.
They are 7 metres below the Everest summit whereas the Tories are , at best, on base camp 2 which is being spun as "victory".
Yes, the Tories have done very well. But they have just swapped places with Labour hardly hurting the SNP.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
The projections of Conservative success at the General Election were based on significant progress in Scotland-only polls. I concur that they are almost certainly exaggerated, although you and I may both need to re-think if any consistent evidence emerges of the SNP's Westminster VI softening any further, and the Tories rising in tandem (again, I also think an SNP performance much below about 43% or a Conservative performance any higher than 30% is unlikely, but not impossible.)
Regardless, just as with local elections everywhere else, reading across percentages and drawing direct conclusions as to the likely party performances at a GE is a mugs' game. BUT they can give us some useful pointers - principally, that the SNP performance is *NOT* about standing still whilst the Tories take Labour to the cleaners. The Lab-Con migration is an important part of the narrative, but not the whole story.
Crudely speaking, what has actually happened is that yes, a lot of Labour voters do appear to have gone over to the Conservatives, but also there has been movement from Labour to SNP and from SNP to Unionist parties - principally the Conservatives, with limited ground also gained by the Liberal Democrats. The evidence for the latter comes from a number of local authorities in which Labour was already weak, and yet the SNP still lost significant ground to Unionist candidates. How else to explain results like Aberdeenshire, where Labour was nowhere last time and nowhere this time, but the SNP suffered significant losses, mainly to the Conservatives? The Tories have now replaced the SNP as the largest group in Aberdeenshire and Perth & Kinross, and have run them very close in Moray and several other areas.
Essentially, what we are seeing here *might* be the beginning of a reversion to something akin to the Scottish electoral map before the Tories were wiped out in the late 80s and 90s - only with the SNP taking the place of Labour. The SNP consolidate control in the cities and the central belt, but especially in the poorer areas - hence the fact that they are very strong in Glasgow and Dundee, yet are now only one councillor ahead of the Tories in Edinburgh - whilst the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats mop up most or all of rural Scotland, and wealthy enclaves in the urban areas. The SNP would still be much the largest party, but the Westminster seat map would be very far from a sea of yellow.
there must be equal treatment between all EU and UK nationals in the UK
I have no problem with that.
But currently there is unequal treatment between EU and UK nationals in the UK when it comes to non-EU family members.
Extra-territorial jurisdiction for the ECJ seems the obvious sticking point to me.
Mrs May's government has said it will ratify the Unified Patent Court agreement. This gives the ECJ the role of interpreting EU law when there is uncertainty over it. No reason why it can't have a similar role on citizens' rights, post-Brexit. UK courts can refer questions to it, get an answer then issue a judgement.
How does that work if the UK government passes a law that conflicts with a ruling of the ECJ (eg on employment, or pensions?)
A UK court will rule that it is unconstitutional if the ECJ judgement was handed down before we Brexit. Post-Brexit ECJ rulings will not carry any weight. The key is what applied on the day we leave. UK courts may want to refer to the ECJ on questions around that.
If Theresa May achieves a good majority expect her to take on the EU rejecting their financial and silly demands for EU citizens to have lifetime rights underscored by the ECJ.
In other words she will call their bluff empowered by the mandate of the GE
there must be equal treatment between all EU and UK nationals in the UK
I have no problem with that.
But currently there is unequal treatment between EU and UK nationals in the UK when it comes to non-EU family members.
Extra-territorial jurisdiction for the ECJ seems the obvious sticking point to me.
Mrs May's government has said it will ratify the Unified Patent Court agreement. This gives the ECJ the role of interpreting EU law when there is uncertainty over it. No reason why it can't have a similar role on citizens' rights, post-Brexit. UK courts can refer questions to it, get an answer then issue a judgement.
How does that work if the UK government passes a law that conflicts with a ruling of the ECJ (eg on employment, or pensions?)
A UK court will rule that it is unconstitutional if the ECJ judgement was handed down before we Brexit. Post-Brexit ECJ rulings will not carry any weight. The key is what applied on the day we leave. UK courts may want to refer to the ECJ on questions around that.
Theresa May is going to include in her manifesto the end of free movement of labour, leaving the single market and the ECJ. I have little doubt that at the end of March 2019 the ECJ will have no further say in UK laws.
There could be a transistional period where a joint ECJ - Supreme Court roll could be envisaged but it will not be for long.
If Theresa May achieves a good majority expect her to take on the EU rejecting their financial and silly demands for EU citizens to have lifetime rights underscored by the ECJ.
Furthermore expect her to be ready to terminate discussions with the Commission until they put a free trade deal on the table and go even further by scaling the issue right up to the Council of Ministers.
In other words she will call their bluff empowered by the mandate of the GE
Pretty despondent after the football last night, what a soulless place to watch football.
I hope you took my advice and laid Spurs @ 2/5
Most of my West Ham mates backed the 8/1, cant believe I didn't really, that was an amazing price.
It was a ridiculous price given West Ham's record against Spurs.
In the last nine match ups, Spurs have won just one game comfortably.
Should have backed Lanzini - nine goals in fourteen London derbies.
Paddy Power just gave me 250-1 on Spurs not finishing in the top two. If we come 3rd and City come 2nd, I am on for £5,000. If we stay where we are, the 7-1 I got on the Happy Hammers leaves me even for my annual Tottenham choke betting spree. I feel a lot better having sorted all that out!!
Wouldn't Spurs have to lose all their remaining games and either Liverpool or Man City when all their remaining games for that to happen ?
And Spurs haven't choked - to choke you have to be top of the table and then fall apart (Newcastle 1996 for example).
Spurs fit into a different category - lightweights who play pretty football but never win anything.
Spurs folded after Leicester won the league last season. The players lost their drive. It's possible it could happen again, and both City & Liverpool have relatively easy run-ins. I have two bets of £10 - one on a non-top 2 finish; the other one on third behind City. I'll probably lose and will be happy to do so - but £2,500 or £5,000 if there is a collapse would be nice.
Choke is short-hand. Spurs have done very well to match Chelsea (just about). Our wage bill is the sixth highest in the country and much closer to the 7th than the 5th. We've played great stuff for long parts of the season, especially since Xmas. A slow start with too many draws is what did for us. The challenge now is to keep the team together. Every starter would earn more elsewhere. We also have to strengthen. But this is the best situation the club has found itself in since the 1980s. I expect it all to go wrong!
Spurs have to win something next year or the squad will break up.
It will really be decision time next year for Spurs to see if they have what it takes to become winners and it will be interesting to see how they respond.
Offtopic, does anyone know who's behind the Maomentum Twitter account? Fantastic parody and cutting comment, with half their retweets being genuine Corbynistas and the other half being parody - and no idea which is which! https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/860394101627289600
Is this important? Seriously? So someone brings a communist flag to a rally. Big deal. Surely the Tory press and establishment have more ammunition that a few photos of the hammer and sickle?
All UK citizens face restrictions on bringing foreign spouses to the UK. The same restrictions do not apply to EU nationals resident in the UK
Nor do they apply to British EU nationals who are resident in the EU outside of Britain (the Surinder Singh judgment). The government is discriminating against its own citizens.
To get to the beef, it is basically a "keep the foreigner out" policy. I didn't know we actually did that. It is basically a racist policy.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic. No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
I find the media coverage of the Scottish results laughable. SNP has lost 7 seats from a very high peak.
They are 7 metres below the Everest summit whereas the Tories are , at best, on base camp 2 which is being spun as "victory".
Yes, the Tories have done very well. But they have just swapped places with Labour hardly hurting the SNP.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
The narrative is because for the first time in a long time(*) the SNP have had a setback.
Not wishing to argue too much with Alastair on his analysis but there are a couple of things he has missed . The Lib Dem vote on Thursday was up around 4% on average on 2013 and around 8% on average on 2015 . There were variations though , the North of England Staffs , Notts , Lincs and northwards of there had a much smaller increase around half that . Other areas showed a much bigger increase Norfolk 6% , Dorset 7% Glos 8% on 2013 and 12 % plus on 2015 GE are typical . This does not seem to be totally correlated with whether an area voted Leave or Remain . Some posters have made the point that LD support is always higher in local elections . That is in fact false It was not true in 1983 for example nor in 2009 compared to the 2010 GE The local elections do give clues on where LD gains are possible and where they are not and these often contradict the seat odds currently available . Do your own research - lots of it .
Here's some research.
Norfolk Mark Senior prediction - Con 47, Lab 17, LibDem 13 Actual result - Con 55, Lab 17, LibDem 11 Difference - Con +8, Lab --, LibDem -2
Dorset Mark Senior prediction - Con 25, Lab 4, LibDem 16 Actual result - Con 32, Lab 1, LibDem 11 Difference - Con +7, Lab -3, LibDem -5
Gloucestershire Mark Senior prediction - Con 24, Lab 9, LibDem 17 Actual result - Con 31, Lab 5, LibDem 14 Difference - Con +7, Lab -4, LibDem -3
Fair comment , in my defense the forecasts were made prior to the GE being announced .
I did say at the time that your predictions were brave.
The change in opinion polls from 2013 to this year showed that there would be big Conservative gains and big Labour losses - I remember John Cutice mentioning a 12% swing in the polls over a month ago.
Had May not swept up the UKIP vote by going to the Country on a hard Brexit platform - and had the GE not swamped a lot of local issues - Mark's predictions would probably have been on the money.
Offtopic, does anyone know who's behind the Maomentum Twitter account? Fantastic parody and cutting comment, with half their retweets being genuine Corbynistas and the other half being parody - and no idea which is which! https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/860394101627289600
Offtopic, does anyone know who's behind the Maomentum Twitter account? Fantastic parody and cutting comment, with half their retweets being genuine Corbynistas and the other half being parody - and no idea which is which! https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/860394101627289600
Is this important? Seriously? So someone brings a communist flag to a rally. Big deal. Surely the one Tory press and establishment have more ammunition that a few photos of the hammer and sickle?
It would be news if someone took a swastika flag to a UKIP rally. The shocking thing is that ignorance of history is such that the H&S is seen as harmless.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic. No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
I find the media coverage of the Scottish results laughable. SNP has lost 7 seats from a very high peak.
They are 7 metres below the Everest summit whereas the Tories are , at best, on base camp 2 which is being spun as "victory".
Yes, the Tories have done very well. But they have just swapped places with Labour hardly hurting the SNP.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
That's not accurate. The Tories did hurt the SNP in several areas of Scotland but the SNP had contra gains against SLAB in the west to compensate. They were more significantly down before Glasgow came through.
Next month they will win more than half the Scottish seats, maybe even 2/3, but it will be nothing like 2015. And the Indy share of the vote is falling. For Indyref 2 that is what matters.
Maybe even 2/3? You think 40 seats for the SNP is a maybe?
They just taken the individual candidate with the highest vote share to colour the ward. Checked across a bunch of wards.
You mean the winner under FPTP rules?
Yeah, that's not helpful for the upcoming GE AT ALL...
Pretty sure parties wouldn't stand two candidates in the same seat in a fptp election.
Poor quality trolling.
Poor quality trolling indeed.
Nevertheless FPTnP district and borough council elections see multiple slates of party candidates all the time.....
Can you explain why you always put an "n" in FPTP?
Because - as others have said - the unique characteristic of our voting system is that it actually has no winning post.
What does the "n" stand for?
None? No? Non-existent? Nowhere to be found? Not present?
I don't mind what the n stands for. I do mind that people are so lazy that they use a name that makes no sense whatsoever.
The name does make sense. The post is the election and whoever came first wins. Hence first past the post.
Specifically, the post is the number of seats for a majority in the parliament/council, right? As opposed to inferior voting systems where a majority is supposed to be impossible and the parties have to stitch up a deal behind closed doors after the people have voted...
No - if we used AV/PR the threshold for a majority would still be 325 seats.
"Plurality system" is a much better name for FPTP
I favour "winner wins".
Ignoring the humour, a tautology is not of course a definition!
"Winner takes all" could be seen as more accurate - but that of course only applies at constituency level. Another peculiarity of the system is that whoever comes second can actually win - cf. President Trump
The election is at a constituency level. Anything beyond the constituency level is not dealt with by the electoral system.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic. No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
I find the media coverage of the Scottish results laughable. SNP has lost 7 seats from a very high peak.
They are 7 metres below the Everest summit whereas the Tories are , at best, on base camp 2 which is being spun as "victory".
Yes, the Tories have done very well. But they have just swapped places with Labour hardly hurting the SNP.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
I don't know if anyone's added up first preference votes, but the SNP probably won about a third of the total. Adding in pro-SNP independents, that suggests they'll get about 40% in June, which is good, but a definite step back from 2015.
So it cannot be done for Tories, but it can be for the SNP ?
Just got canvassed by Labour (Greenwich & Woolwich) - never happened last time.
The conversation went:
Him: "I'm here on behalf of the Labour Party" Me: "Two words: Jeremy Corbyn. Thank you." *shuts door*
I hope that's enough to get me put down as "against".
Lol, I'm back in London this weekend, I hope some Labour types come to the door.
Saw some in Acton the other day. I felt sorry for them and just smiled as sweetly as I could without saying anything. Didn't really want to make their day any worse than it already was.
They are choosing to ask members of the public to vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn. They deserve whatever they get!
Offtopic, does anyone know who's behind the Maomentum Twitter account? Fantastic parody and cutting comment, with half their retweets being genuine Corbynistas and the other half being parody - and no idea which is which! https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/860394101627289600
Is this important? Seriously? So someone brings a communist flag to a rally. Big deal. Surely the one Tory press and establishment have more ammunition that a few photos of the hammer and sickle?
It would be news if someone took a swastika flag to a UKIP rally. The shocking thing is that ignorance of history is such that the H&S is seen as harmless.
I don't know if anyone's added up first preference votes, but the SNP probably won about a third of the total. Adding in pro-SNP independents, that suggests they'll get about 40% in June, which is good, but a definite step back from 2015.
As I keep banging on and on, it's all about dat turnout.
Turnout was up massively on the 2012 Council elections, and it was up more in richer areas than poorer areas. And richer areas tended towards electing Conservatives.
If that differential turnout is continued in the GE then it's a night of Con surging. If it isn't then it's not.
But we don't know what the Scot turnout will be like at all.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic. No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
Adding the distant 2nd & 3rd parties from the opposite ends of the political spectrum to somehow beat the party which constantly wins in all forms of elections - FPTP, STV & AMS - is illogical on all counts.
SCON are the only Unionist Party, evidenced by their advance into Orange/Rangers areas in the Council Elections. Until SCON can win the elections ahead of the SNP in at least 1 of the above 3 electoral battlegrounds. Folks will be continuing to add up %s on the back of fag packets to make their case.
If SCON are so confident of winning IndyRef2 - why not call the SNP's bluff and stop opposing it !!
Offtopic, does anyone know who's behind the Maomentum Twitter account? Fantastic parody and cutting comment, with half their retweets being genuine Corbynistas and the other half being parody - and no idea which is which! https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/860394101627289600
Is this important? Seriously? So someone brings a communist flag to a rally. Big deal. Surely the one Tory press and establishment have more ammunition that a few photos of the hammer and sickle?
It would be news if someone took a swastika flag to a UKIP rally. The shocking thing is that ignorance of history is such that the H&S is seen as harmless.
It wasn't just someone took it to the rally, it was in pride of place with McDonnell speaking under it.
Imagine if Theresa May spoke under a swastika. It would be horrific yet this supposedly isn't?
I find the media coverage of the Scottish results laughable. SNP has lost 7 seats from a very high peak.
They are 7 metres below the Everest summit whereas the Tories are , at best, on base camp 2 which is being spun as "victory".
Yes, the Tories have done very well. But they have just swapped places with Labour hardly hurting the SNP.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
The projections of Conservative success at the General Election were based on significant progress in Scotland-only polls. I concur that they are almost certainly exaggerated, although you and I may both need to re-think if any consistent evidence emerges of the SNP's Westminster VI softening any further, and the Tories rising in tandem (again, I also think an SNP performance much below about 43% or a Conservative performance any higher than 30% is unlikely, but not impossible.)
Crudely speaking, what has actually happened is that yes, a lot of Labour voters do appear to have gone over to the Conservatives, but also there has been movement from Labour to SNP and from SNP to Unionist parties - principally the Conservatives, with limited ground also gained by the Liberal Democrats. The evidence for the latter comes from a number of local authorities in which Labour was already weak, and yet the SNP still lost significant ground to Unionist candidates. How else to explain results like Aberdeenshire, where Labour was nowhere last time and nowhere this time, but the SNP suffered significant losses, mainly to the Conservatives? The Tories have now replaced the SNP as the largest group in Aberdeenshire and Perth & Kinross, and have run them very close in Moray and several other areas.
Essentially, what we are seeing here *might* be the beginning of a reversion to something akin to the Scottish electoral map before the Tories were wiped out in the late 80s and 90s - only with the SNP taking the place of Labour. The SNP consolidate control in the cities and the central belt, but especially in the poorer areas - hence the fact that they are very strong in Glasgow and Dundee, yet are now only one councillor ahead of the Tories in Edinburgh - whilst the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats mop up most or all of rural Scotland, and wealthy enclaves in the urban areas. The SNP would still be much the largest party, but the Westminster seat map would be very far from a sea of yellow.
We are not voting in a referendum. We are voting for Westminster. The idea that a Labour voter [ those left behind ] would vote for a Tory against SNP is laughable. Between the two, it is the SNP which is the left wing party. That is how they parked their tanks in Labour's lawn and have now dug in.
They just taken the individual candidate with the highest vote share to colour the ward. Checked across a bunch of wards.
You mean the winner under FPTP rules?
Yeah, that's not helpful for the upcoming GE AT ALL...
Pretty sure parties wouldn't stand two candidates in the same seat in a fptp election.
Poor quality trolling.
Poor quality trolling indeed.
Nevertheless FPTnP district and borough council elections see multiple slates of party candidates all the time.....
Can you explain why you always put an "n" in FPTP?
Because - as others have said - the unique characteristic of our voting system is that it actually has no winning post.
What does the "n" stand for?
None? No? Non-existent? Nowhere to be found? Not present?
I don't mind what the n stands for. I do mind that people are so lazy that they use a name that makes no sense whatsoever.
The name does make sense. The post is the election and whoever came first wins. Hence first past the post.
Specifically, the post is the number of seats for a majority in the parliament/council, right? As opposed to inferior voting systems where a majority is supposed to be impossible and the parties have to stitch up a deal behind closed doors after the people have voted...
No - if we used AV/PR the threshold for a majority would still be 325 seats.
"Plurality system" is a much better name for FPTP
I favour "winner wins".
Ignoring the humour, a tautology is not of course a definition!
"Winner takes all" could be seen as more accurate - but that of course only applies at constituency level. Another peculiarity of the system is that whoever comes second can actually win - cf. President Trump
The election is at a constituency level. Anything beyond the constituency level is not dealt with by the electoral system.
That depends on the system! I was simply pointing out that whilst at seat level a party gets all representation, even with vote shares as low as mid-20%s, it would be misleading to use WtA as title for the system since the second most popular party sometimes wins.
If Theresa May achieves a good majority expect her to take on the EU rejecting their financial and silly demands for EU citizens to have lifetime rights underscored by the ECJ.
Furthermore expect her to be ready to terminate discussions with the Commission until they put a free trade deal on the table and go even further by scaling the issue right up to the Council of Ministers.
In other words she will call their bluff empowered by the mandate of the GE
It sounds quite likely but the problem is that Theresa May is the one who is bluffing. Expect national humiliation on a scale beyond imagination.
You really can be very silly - in your World we all just look back in wonder at Junckers and the rest and bow at their altar
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
I find the media
Yes, the Tories have done very well. But they have just swapped places with Labour hardly hurting the SNP.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
I don't know if anyone's added up first preference votes, but the SNP probably won about a third of the total. Adding in pro-SNP independents, that suggests they'll get about 40% in June, which is good, but a definite step back from 2015.
I have been reading so much in the last two days that local votes and GE votes cannot be compared. So it cannot be done for Tories, but it can be for the SNP ? In 2015, some NO voters also voted SNP, otherwise they could not have received 50% against 45% YES in the ref.
They do give pointers. The overall results suggest that the Conservatives are heading for a very big majority. But, there are often big differences at local level. The Lib Dems won't win seats like Eastleigh and St. Alban's for example. Nor will the Tories outpoll Labour across Teesside (but, they'll probably gain Darlington and Middlesborough East).
there must be equal treatment between all EU and UK nationals in the UK
I have no problem with that.
But currently there is unequal treatment between EU and UK nationals in the UK when it comes to non-EU family members.
Extra-territorial jurisdiction for the ECJ seems the obvious sticking point to me.
Mrs May's government has said it will ratify the Unified Patent Court agreement. This gives the ECJ the role of interpreting EU law when there is uncertainty over it. No reason why it can't have a similar role on citizens' rights, post-Brexit. UK courts can refer questions to it, get an answer then issue a judgement.
How does that work if the UK government passes a law that conflicts with a ruling of the ECJ (eg on employment, or pensions?)
A UK court will rule that it is unconstitutional if the ECJ judgement was handed down before we Brexit. Post-Brexit ECJ rulings will not carry any weight. The key is what applied on the day we leave. UK courts may want to refer to the ECJ on questions around that.
Theresa May is going to include in her manifesto the end of free movement of labour, leaving the single market and the ECJ. I have little doubt that at the end of March 2019 the ECJ will have no further say in UK laws.
There could be a transistional period where a joint ECJ - Supreme Court roll could be envisaged but it will not be for long.
If Theresa May achieves a good majority expect her to take on the EU rejecting their financial and silly demands for EU citizens to have lifetime rights underscored by the ECJ.
Furthermore expect her to be ready to terminate discussions with the Commission until they put a free trade deal on the table and go even further by scaling the issue right up to the Council of Ministers.
In other words she will call their bluff empowered by the mandate of the GE
And once their bluff is called - what happens then? We leave the EU and inflict deep, long-lasting damage on ourselves. Singing God Save the Queen and saying nasty things about untrustworthy foreigners won't change that. And the EU knows this, as does the PM.
I am still puzzled at the Lib Dems getting 18% in the vote share. Something is not right. The Tories are a bit too low. I think the earlier report was correct.
Con 40, Lab 28, LD 15
Remember, this is an estimate of what the national shares would be if there were local elections in the whole country. It doesn't estimate what would have happened in a general election.
OK. I got it. But where the hell did they get all those votes. They lost seats for pete's sake.
They piled them up moving from poor third places to decent thirds or seconds.
Not true here is a typical result Somerset CC Blackdown and Neroche 2013 LD 1035 36% Con 988 34% others 30% 2017 Con 1556 47% LD 1414 43% others 10%
If Theresa May achieves a good majority expect her to take on the EU rejecting their financial and silly demands for EU citizens to have lifetime rights underscored by the ECJ.
Furthermore expect her to be ready to terminate discussions with the Commission until they put a free trade deal on the table and go even further by scaling the issue right up to the Council of Ministers.
In other words she will call their bluff empowered by the mandate of the GE
It sounds quite likely but the problem is that Theresa May is the one who is bluffing. Expect national humiliation on a scale beyond imagination.
Controlling free movement and reducing contributions to the EU are non negotiable by May, even if it means mainly WTO terms for a few years until a FTA agreement is completed or a future Labour government returns us to the single market there will be no national humiliation
Crudely speaking, what has actually happened is that yes, a lot of Labour voters do appear to have gone over to the Conservatives, but also there has been movement from Labour to SNP and from SNP to Unionist parties - principally the Conservatives, with limited ground also gained by the Liberal Democrats. The evidence for the latter comes from a number of local authorities in which Labour was already weak, and yet the SNP still lost significant ground to Unionist candidates. How else to explain results like Aberdeenshire, where Labour was nowhere last time and nowhere this time, but the SNP suffered significant losses, mainly to the Conservatives?
You can explain it via differential turnout -turnout is up massively no 2012. If that has been captured by the Unionists then there can be mass Unionist gains whilst SNP improve their position.
Not wishing to argue too much with Alastair on his analysis but there are a couple of things he has missed . The Lib Dem vote on Thursday was up around 4% on average on 2013 and around 8% on average on 2015 . There were variations though , the North of England Staffs , Notts , Lincs and northwards of there had a much smaller increase around half that . Other areas showed a much bigger increase Norfolk 6% , Dorset 7% Glos 8% on 2013 and 12 % plus on 2015 GE are typical . This does not seem to be totally correlated with whether an area voted Leave or Remain . Some posters have made the point that LD support is always higher in local elections . That is in fact false It was not true in 1983 for example nor in 2009 compared to the 2010 GE The local elections do give clues on where LD gains are possible and where they are not and these often contradict the seat odds currently available . Do your own research - lots of it .
Here's some research.
Norfolk Mark Senior prediction - Con 47, Lab 17, LibDem 13 Actual result - Con 55, Lab 17, LibDem 11 Difference - Con +8, Lab --, LibDem -2
Dorset Mark Senior prediction - Con 25, Lab 4, LibDem 16 Actual result - Con 32, Lab 1, LibDem 11 Difference - Con +7, Lab -3, LibDem -5
Gloucestershire Mark Senior prediction - Con 24, Lab 9, LibDem 17 Actual result - Con 31, Lab 5, LibDem 14 Difference - Con +7, Lab -4, LibDem -3
Fair comment , in my defense the forecasts were made prior to the GE being announced .
I did say at the time that your predictions were brave.
The change in opinion polls from 2013 to this year showed that there would be big Conservative gains and big Labour losses - I remember John Cutice mentioning a 12% swing in the polls over a month ago.
Had May not swept up the UKIP vote by going to the Country on a hard Brexit platform - and had the GE not swamped a lot of local issues - Mark's predictions would probably have been on the money.
I find the media coverage of the Scottish results laughable. SNP has lost 7 seats from a very high peak.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
The projections of Conservative success at the General Election were based on significant progress in Scotland-only polls. I concur that they are almost certainly exaggerated, although you and I may both need to re-think if any consistent evidence emerges of the SNP's Westminster VI softening any further, and the Tories rising in tandem (again, I also think an SNP performance much below about 43% or a Conservative performance any higher than 30% is unlikely, but not impossible.)
Crudely speaking, what has actually happened is that yes, a lot of Labour voters do appear to have gone over to the Conservatives, but also there has been movement from Labour to SNP and from SNP to Unionist parties - principally the Conservatives, with limited ground also gained by the Liberal Democrats. The evidence for the latter comes from a number of local authorities in which Labour was already weak, and yet the SNP still lost significant ground to Unionist candidates. How else to explain results like Aberdeenshire, where Labour was nowhere last time and nowhere this time, but the SNP suffered significant losses, mainly to the Conservatives? The Tories have now replaced the SNP as the largest group in Aberdeenshire and Perth & Kinross, and have run them very close in Moray and several other areas.
Essentially, what we are seeing here *might* be the beginning of a reversion to something akin to the Scottish electoral map before the Tories were wiped out in the late 80s and 90s - only with the SNP taking the place of Labour. The SNP consolidate control in the cities and the central belt, but especially in the poorer areas - hence the fact that they are very strong in Glasgow and Dundee, yet are now only one councillor ahead of the Tories in Edinburgh - whilst the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats mop up most or all of rural Scotland, and wealthy enclaves in the urban areas. The SNP would still be much the largest party, but the Westminster seat map would be very far from a sea of yellow.
We are not voting in a referendum. We are voting for Westminster. The idea that a Labour voter [ those left behind ] would vote for a Tory against SNP is laughable. Between the two, it is the SNP which is the left wing party. That is how they parked their tanks in Labour's lawn and have now dug in.
Are you sure? In England we have former Labour voters voting Tory directly. Why wouldn't opposition to IndyRef2 (and support for Brexit) strengthen the same trend in Scotland?
If Theresa May achieves a good majority expect her to take on the EU rejecting their financial and silly demands for EU citizens to have lifetime rights underscored by the ECJ.
In other words she will call their bluff empowered by the mandate of the GE
1. It's just talk to harvest gullible voters. Afterwards, serious negotiations will start, on the expected lines - a broad agreement on the initial issues (£££s, foreign residents' rights) subject to subsequent agreement on trade, then a deal on trade.
2. May actually means it. In that case we're in for a wild ride. All the stuff about security and stability can be chucked in the bin.
My guess is still 1, but I'm less sure than I was.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic. No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
I find the media coverage of the Scottish results laughable. SNP has lost 7 seats from a very high peak.
They are 7 metres below the Everest summit whereas the Tories are , at best, on base camp 2 which is being spun as "victory".
Yes, the Tories have done very well. But they have just swapped places with Labour hardly hurting the SNP.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
The narrative is because for the first time in a long time(*) the SNP have had a setback.
(*) Well, except for the big one.
Oh to have the kind of setbacks where they have more seats and are largest party on more councils.
Offtopic, does anyone know who's behind the Maomentum Twitter account? Fantastic parody and cutting comment, with half their retweets being genuine Corbynistas and the other half being parody - and no idea which is which! https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/860394101627289600
Is this important? Seriously? So someone brings a communist flag to a rally. Big deal. Surely the one Tory press and establishment have more ammunition that a few photos of the hammer and sickle?
It would be news if someone took a swastika flag to a UKIP rally. The shocking thing is that ignorance of history is such that the H&S is seen as harmless.
It wasn't just someone took it to the rally, it was in pride of place with McDonnell speaking under it.
Imagine if Theresa May spoke under a swastika. It would be horrific yet this supposedly isn't?
Did you know that in the last war, the country whose flag had the hammer and sickle were our allies and they lost 20 million people to defeat the country whose flag then had the swastika on it ?
Not wishing to argue too much with Alastair on his analysis but there are a couple of things he has missed . The Lib Dem vote on Thursday was up around 4% on average on 2013 and around 8% on average on 2015 . There were variations though , the North of England Staffs , Notts , Lincs and northwards of there had a much smaller increase around half that . Other areas showed a much bigger increase Norfolk 6% , Dorset 7% Glos 8% on 2013 and 12 % plus on 2015 GE are typical . This does not seem to be totally correlated with whether an area voted Leave or Remain . Some posters have made the point that LD support is always higher in local elections . That is in fact false It was not true in 1983 for example nor in 2009 compared to the 2010 GE The local elections do give clues on where LD gains are possible and where they are not and these often contradict the seat odds currently available . Do your own research - lots of it .
Here's some research.
Norfolk Mark Senior prediction - Con 47, Lab 17, LibDem 13 Actual result - Con 55, Lab 17, LibDem 11 Difference - Con +8, Lab --, LibDem -2
Dorset Mark Senior prediction - Con 25, Lab 4, LibDem 16 Actual result - Con 32, Lab 1, LibDem 11 Difference - Con +7, Lab -3, LibDem -5
Gloucestershire Mark Senior prediction - Con 24, Lab 9, LibDem 17 Actual result - Con 31, Lab 5, LibDem 14 Difference - Con +7, Lab -4, LibDem -3
Fair comment , in my defense the forecasts were made prior to the GE being announced .
I did say at the time that your predictions were brave.
The change in opinion polls from 2013 to this year showed that there would be big Conservative gains and big Labour losses - I remember John Cutice mentioning a 12% swing in the polls over a month ago.
Had May not swept up the UKIP vote by going to the Country on a hard Brexit platform - and had the GE not swamped a lot of local issues - Mark's predictions would probably have been on the money.
Offtopic, does anyone know who's behind the Maomentum Twitter account? Fantastic parody and cutting comment, with half their retweets being genuine Corbynistas and the other half being parody - and no idea which is which! https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/860394101627289600
Is this important? Seriously? So someone brings a communist flag to a rally. Big deal. Surely the one Tory press and establishment have more ammunition that a few photos of the hammer and sickle?
It would be news if someone took a swastika flag to a UKIP rally. The shocking thing is that ignorance of history is such that the H&S is seen as harmless.
It wasn't just someone took it to the rally, it was in pride of place with McDonnell speaking under it.
Imagine if Theresa May spoke under a swastika. It would be horrific yet this supposedly isn't?
Did you know that in the last war, the country whose flag had the hammer and sickle were our allies and they lost 20 million people to defeat the country whose flag then had the swastika on it ?
You are comparing the two ? Shame on you !
There is no shame in the comparison. Churchill more than anyone was acutely aware of it.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic. No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
SCON distant 2nd - just ahead of "dead in the water" SLAB in 3rd - both way behind SNP - being spun as a great SCON victory !!
SCON and SLAB combined well ahead of SNP though and that is all May needs to block indyref2
I find the media coverage of the Scottish results laughable. SNP has lost 7 seats from a very high peak.
They are 7 metres below the Everest summit whereas the Tories are , at best, on base camp 2 which is being spun as "victory".
Yes, the Tories have done very well. But they have just swapped places with Labour hardly hurting the SNP.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
The narrative is because for the first time in a long time(*) the SNP have had a setback.
(*) Well, except for the big one.
Oh to have the kind of setbacks where they have more seats and are largest party on more councils.
Offtopic, does anyone know who's behind the Maomentum Twitter account? Fantastic parody and cutting comment, with half their retweets being genuine Corbynistas and the other half being parody - and no idea which is which! https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/860394101627289600
Is this important? Seriously? So someone brings a communist flag to a rally. Big deal. Surely the one Tory press and establishment have more ammunition that a few photos of the hammer and sickle?
It would be news if someone took a swastika flag to a UKIP rally. The shocking thing is that ignorance of history is such that the H&S is seen as harmless.
It wasn't just someone took it to the rally, it was in pride of place with McDonnell speaking under it.
Imagine if Theresa May spoke under a swastika. It would be horrific yet this supposedly isn't?
Did you know that in the last war, the country whose flag had the hammer and sickle were our allies and they lost 20 million people to defeat the country whose flag then had the swastika on it ?
You are comparing the two ? Shame on you !
True but Stalin still killed even more than Hitler did
there must be equal treatment between all EU and UK nationals in the UK
I have no problem with that.
But currently there is unequal treatment between EU and UK nationals in the UK when it comes to non-EU family members.
Extra-territorial jurisdiction for the ECJ seems the obvious sticking point to me.
Mrs May's government has said it will ratify the Unified Patent Court agreement. This gives the ECJ the role of interpreting EU law when there is uncertainty over it. No reason why it can't have a similar role on citizens' rights, post-Brexit. UK courts can refer questions to it, get an answer then issue a judgement.
How does that work if the UK government passes a law that conflicts with a ruling of the ECJ (eg on employment, or pensions?)
A UK court will rule that it is unconstitutional if the ECJ judgement was handed down before we Brexit. Post-Brexit ECJ rulings will not carry any weight. The key is what applied on the day we leave. UK courts may want to refer to the ECJ on questions around that.
Theresa May is going to include in her manifesto the end of free movement of labour, leaving the single market and the ECJ. I have little doubt that at the end of March 2019 the ECJ will have no further say in UK laws.
There could be a transistional period where a joint ECJ - Supreme Court roll could be envisaged but it will not be for long.
If Theresa May achieves a good majority expect her to take on the EU rejecting their financial and silly demands for EU citizens to have lifetime rights underscored by the ECJ.
Furthermore expect her to be ready to terminate discussions with the Commission until they put a free trade deal on the table and go even further by scaling the issue right up to the Council of Ministers.
In other words she will call their bluff empowered by the mandate of the GE
And once their bluff is called - what happens then? We leave the EU and inflict deep, long-lasting damage on ourselves. Singing God Save the Queen and saying nasty things about untrustworthy foreigners won't change that. And the EU knows this, as does the PM.
Why do you remainers always play the objectionable foreigners card. I support immigration from anywhere subject to a job offer and delight at the diversity of the UK
You know, one day , you may find there is a whole new world outside the EU
If Theresa May achieves a good majority expect her to take on the EU rejecting their financial and silly demands for EU citizens to have lifetime rights underscored by the ECJ.
In other words she will call their bluff empowered by the mandate of the GE
1. It's just talk to harvest gullible voters. Afterwards, serious negotiations will start, on the expected lines - a broad agreement on the initial issues (£££s, foreign residents' rights) subject to subsequent agreement on trade, then a deal on trade.
2. May actually means it. In that case we're in for a wild ride. All the stuff about security and stability can be chucked in the bin.
My guess is still 1, but I'm less sure than I was.
Yep, totally agree. There will be nothing strong, stable or unchaotic about a Brexit with no deal. Put it this way: no deal has been on the table since 24th June 2016. If it were in the UK's best interests the government would already have announced it had no interest in negotiating our withdrawal or a trade deal. It would hust be sitting tight until Brexit day came round.
Offtopic, does anyone know who's behind the Maomentum Twitter account? Fantastic parody and cutting comment, with half their retweets being genuine Corbynistas and the other half being parody - and no idea which is which! https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/860394101627289600
Is this important? Seriously? So someone brings a communist flag to a rally. Big deal. Surely the one Tory press and establishment have more ammunition that a few photos of the hammer and sickle?
It would be news if someone took a swastika flag to a UKIP rally. The shocking thing is that ignorance of history is such that the H&S is seen as harmless.
It wasn't just someone took it to the rally, it was in pride of place with McDonnell speaking under it.
Imagine if Theresa May spoke under a swastika. It would be horrific yet this supposedly isn't?
Did you know that in the last war, the country whose flag had the hammer and sickle were our allies and they lost 20 million people to defeat the country whose flag then had the swastika on it ?
You are comparing the two ? Shame on you !
I take it that you have heard of the brutalities carried out by Stalin, Trotsky, Mao etc.?
Offtopic, does anyone know who's behind the Maomentum Twitter account? Fantastic parody and cutting comment, with half their retweets being genuine Corbynistas and the other half being parody - and no idea which is which! https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/860394101627289600
Is this important? Seriously? So someone brings a communist flag to a rally. Big deal. Surely the one Tory press and establishment have more ammunition that a few photos of the hammer and sickle?
It would be news if someone took a swastika flag to a UKIP rally. The shocking thing is that ignorance of history is such that the H&S is seen as harmless.
It wasn't just someone took it to the rally, it was in pride of place with McDonnell speaking under it.
Imagine if Theresa May spoke under a swastika. It would be horrific yet this supposedly isn't?
Did you know that in the last war, the country whose flag had the hammer and sickle were our allies and they lost 20 million people to defeat the country whose flag then had the swastika on it ?
You are comparing the two ? Shame on you !
I take it that you have heard of the brutalities carried out by Stalin, Trotsky, Mao etc.?
I hope you have heard about the brutalities being carried out in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, our friends.
Comments
Con 40, Lab 28, LD 15
Communiqué de presse n°9 du 4 mai 2017 - Interdiction de diffuser des messages ayant le caractère de propagande électorale les samedi 6 et dimanche 7 mai 2017
Communiqué de presse n°10 du 4 mai 2017 - Interdiction de diffuser des sondages les samedi 6 et dimanche 7 mai 2017
Communiqué de presse n° 11 du 4 mai 2017 - Interdiction de diffuser des résultats partiels du second tour de l’élection présidentielle avant le dimanche 7 mai 2017 à 20 heures
Communiqué de presse n°12 du 4 mai 2017 - Avis au parquet à la suite d’une saisine par un candidat
Communiqué de presse n°13 du 5 mai 2017 - Suites données à la saisine de la Commission nationale de contrôle par le mandataire de Madame Le Pen
Communiqué de presse n°14 du 6 mai 2017 - Recommandation aux médias suite à l'attaque informatique dont a été victime l'équipe de campagne de M. Macron
Communiqué de presse n°15 du 6 mai 2017 - Suites de l’attaque informatique qu’a subie l’équipe de campagne de M. Macron
Lots off squirrels about today....
I would encourage higher salaries for areas with staff shortages, you can't offer patient care without staff. I would also loosen procurement rules where possible so the NHS can spend money on doctors instead of lawyers
However... this I hadn't fully appreciated:
"While it may have matter more in certain pockets, it is important not to exaggerate the over scale of the “Ukip-as-a-gateway-drug” phenomena. For example, only a tiny fraction (around half a percent) have taken the path from Labour to Ukip to the Conservatives through the last seven years.
"This is barely noticeable compared to the bigger switch taking place over that period – those moving straight from Labour to the Conservatives. Since 2010, approaching 4 per cent of the electorate have gone from red to blue. So although Ukip has acted as a “gateway drug” to the Conservatives for many Labour voters, Jeremy Corbyn’s team needs to be more worried about those that are moving straight to the hard stuff."
Edit: I reckoned that there *MUST* be direct Lab-Con migration going on at some level, but if it's anything like 4% then, even taking their starting point as EdM's performance rather than Brown's, that drops Labour down below 27%. This is before you compute the net effects of movement between Labour and Ukip and Labour and the Lib Dems, the latter of which at least seems likely to result in a further reduction in Labour share, or begin to calculate the total increase in the Conservative vote share. Very grim for Labour.
https://onlondon.co.uk/2017/05/03/guest-article-garden-bridges-that-might-have-been-and-could-still-be/
We don't 'keep families separate' - they separate when one of them moves to the UK
* the commission ASKS the press, especially their websites, not to print the content of the supposedly hacked material, a part of which they say is "probably false".
Then they had a meeting.
* Now they underline that distributing or redistributing "such data, obtained fraudulently, and which may be mixed with false information", could get someone an awfully hard smack on the bottom.
* They call on all "actors" present on the internet and in social networks - first of all the media, but citizens too - to show a spirit of responsibility and NOT TO CIRCULATE THIS CONTENT, in order not to spook the vote and also so as not to risk having their collars felt.
Seriously you've got to wonder why they don't go the whole hog and entitle their announcement "The State is in Danger". Why not plaster the country with posters saying "Citizens! You are warned! Do not circulate hacked information about Emmanuel Macron. It may be mixed with false statements. You risk jail if you disobey!"?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-is-starving-1493995317
I'm not a fan of a bloated aid budget, but when a country can't feed its own children it's time for international help to be sent in.
On a similar note, there are forecasts of frost and snow across large parts of Russia and former USSR countries in the next few days. The crops were planted some weeks ago now, there is a reasonable chance of a very poor harvest in the autumn.
Seriously, fuck you all.
Corbyn isn’t going to save the NHS. He’s not going to build thousands of new affordable homes, he’s not going to make schools into palaces, universities free, pensioners wealthy or end poverty. He’s not going to do any of those things for four reasons:
1. He’s incompetent. Massively, massively incompetent. He can’t do a no-seats-on-the-train stunt without falling flat on his face. He can’t fill a shadow cabinet. He can’t plan. And he’s surrounded himself with people whose incompetence equals his own. Between them they can’t run a government and an economy, they can’t even run a political party. He’s a protester. He complains about things being wrong. He’s never had to make things right, and he doesn’t know how to do it.
2. He doesn’t want to.
https://excelpope.wordpress.com/2017/05/05/rant/
They are 7 metres below the Everest summit whereas the Tories are , at best, on base camp 2 which is being spun as "victory".
Yes, the Tories have done very well. But they have just swapped places with Labour hardly hurting the SNP.
We no longer hear the Tories getting 12 seats next month. What's happened ? I thought the Tories won on Thursday.
Choke is short-hand. Spurs have done very well to match Chelsea (just about). Our wage bill is the sixth highest in the country and much closer to the 7th than the 5th. We've played great stuff for long parts of the season, especially since Xmas. A slow start with too many draws is what did for us. The challenge now is to keep the team together. Every starter would earn more elsewhere. We also have to strengthen. But this is the best situation the club has found itself in since the 1980s. I expect it all to go wrong!
The conversation went:
Him: "I'm here on behalf of the Labour Party"
Me: "Two words: Jeremy Corbyn. Thank you." *shuts door*
I hope that's enough to get me put down as "against".
To answer your question specifically:
- in some marginal seats the LibDems gained votes but the Tories gained even more, so gains against the Tories were limited and a few defending cllrs lost their seats
- in many hopeless seats the LibDem vote rose from below to above 10%
But at least we now have a definitive statement from one of the May ultras that her words are meaningless.
https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/860394101627289600
The change in opinion polls from 2013 to this year showed that there would be big Conservative gains and big Labour losses - I remember John Cutice mentioning a 12% swing in the polls over a month ago.
http://www.thecomet.net/news/herts-county-council-elections-2017-disastrous-night-for-labour-in-stevenage-as-they-lose-three-of-their-five-seats-amid-big-tory-gains-1-5004394
And a couple of places where they do much worse.
If you want to change it, secure the election of a government that will.
Dorset 25.3% plus 6.5% on 2013
Glos 27.5% plus 7.1% on 2013
Somerset 30.8% plus 4.6% on 2013
Warwicks 16.0% plus 2.9% on 2013
Hants 29.9% plus 8.3% on 2013
Essex 14.5% plus 2.9% on 2013
etc etc
Next month they will win more than half the Scottish seats, maybe even 2/3, but it will be nothing like 2015. And the Indy share of the vote is falling. For Indyref 2 that is what matters.
There could be a transistional period where a joint ECJ - Supreme Court roll could be envisaged but it will not be for long.
If Theresa May achieves a good majority expect her to take on the EU rejecting their financial and silly demands for EU citizens to have lifetime rights underscored by the ECJ.
Furthermore expect her to be ready to terminate discussions with the Commission until they put a free trade deal on the table and go even further by scaling the issue right up to the Council of Ministers.
In other words she will call their bluff empowered by the mandate of the GE
I'd be surprised to win both quite honestly.
"Winner takes all" could be seen as more accurate - but that of course only applies at constituency level. Another peculiarity of the system is that whoever comes second can actually win - cf. President Trump
Regardless, just as with local elections everywhere else, reading across percentages and drawing direct conclusions as to the likely party performances at a GE is a mugs' game. BUT they can give us some useful pointers - principally, that the SNP performance is *NOT* about standing still whilst the Tories take Labour to the cleaners. The Lab-Con migration is an important part of the narrative, but not the whole story.
Crudely speaking, what has actually happened is that yes, a lot of Labour voters do appear to have gone over to the Conservatives, but also there has been movement from Labour to SNP and from SNP to Unionist parties - principally the Conservatives, with limited ground also gained by the Liberal Democrats. The evidence for the latter comes from a number of local authorities in which Labour was already weak, and yet the SNP still lost significant ground to Unionist candidates. How else to explain results like Aberdeenshire, where Labour was nowhere last time and nowhere this time, but the SNP suffered significant losses, mainly to the Conservatives? The Tories have now replaced the SNP as the largest group in Aberdeenshire and Perth & Kinross, and have run them very close in Moray and several other areas.
Essentially, what we are seeing here *might* be the beginning of a reversion to something akin to the Scottish electoral map before the Tories were wiped out in the late 80s and 90s - only with the SNP taking the place of Labour. The SNP consolidate control in the cities and the central belt, but especially in the poorer areas - hence the fact that they are very strong in Glasgow and Dundee, yet are now only one councillor ahead of the Tories in Edinburgh - whilst the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats mop up most or all of rural Scotland, and wealthy enclaves in the urban areas. The SNP would still be much the largest party, but the Westminster seat map would be very far from a sea of yellow.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3494310/theresa-may-and-her-team-of-tories-wont-play-if-the-eu-continues-to-play-dirty/
It will really be decision time next year for Spurs to see if they have what it takes to become winners and it will be interesting to see how they respond.
(*) Well, except for the big one.
This would be illegal in France.
Turnout was up massively on the 2012 Council elections, and it was up more in richer areas than poorer areas. And richer areas tended towards electing Conservatives.
If that differential turnout is continued in the GE then it's a night of Con surging. If it isn't then it's not.
But we don't know what the Scot turnout will be like at all.
SCON are the only Unionist Party, evidenced by their advance into Orange/Rangers areas in the Council Elections. Until SCON can win the elections ahead of the SNP in at least 1 of the above 3 electoral battlegrounds. Folks will be continuing to add up %s on the back of fag packets to make their case.
If SCON are so confident of winning IndyRef2 - why not call the SNP's bluff and stop opposing it !!
Imagine if Theresa May spoke under a swastika. It would be horrific yet this supposedly isn't?
You really can be very silly - in your World we all just look back in wonder at Junckers and the rest and bow at their altar
Somerset CC Blackdown and Neroche
2013 LD 1035 36% Con 988 34% others 30%
2017 Con 1556 47% LD 1414 43% others 10%
LD vote up 7% but seat lost
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
In 2013 Labour had a lead of 6% whereas every ICM poll for the last six months had the Conservatives over 40% and a lead of at least 14%.
Or if you want another example remember the Copeland by-election.
There were always going to be big Conservative gains and big Labour losses in this year's local elections.
1. It's just talk to harvest gullible voters. Afterwards, serious negotiations will start, on the expected lines - a broad agreement on the initial issues (£££s, foreign residents' rights) subject to subsequent agreement on trade, then a deal on trade.
2. May actually means it. In that case we're in for a wild ride. All the stuff about security and stability can be chucked in the bin.
My guess is still 1, but I'm less sure than I was.
You are comparing the two ? Shame on you !
I think I made a few bets based on Mr. Price's tips last year. Also, when's it resolved?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/05/liberal-democrats-lacklustre-local-election-results-show-limits/
You know, one day , you may find there is a whole new world outside the EU