"In the same way, almost nobody hates the Argentinians over the Falklands, and not many people still feel strongly about the IRA either (I know Southam disagrees!)"
Just what the actual fuck...No wonder no oldies say they will vote labour!
Communism probably killed 100 million or more. It was responsible for arguably the most appalling of all genocides, the Khmer Rouge, where a nation slaughtered between a quarter and third of its own people. At the same time it imprisoned and impoverished half the world for half a century. It is still destroying nations today - North Korea and Venezuela, for example.
The idea the hammer and sickle is some harmless bit of retro bunting is just puke-worthy. It might not have quite the Satanic implications of the Swastika, but it is a disturbing and repulsive symbol nonetheless, especially for those who suffered in the Soviet Bloc, or Mao's China.
No politician of any decency should go near it, let alone stand beneath it, proudly giving speeches.
Totally agree. Nick might laugh off the fact Corbyn and McDonnell wanted the IRA to win, but ordinary voters are rightly less sanguine. They expect their leaders to be patriots. That may make Nick wince, but it's a fact.
My father worked in manchester and Birmingham when the IRA were busy redeveloping those cities. The thought that some British political leadership wanted them to win is not ancient history that he no longer cares about.
"In the same way, almost nobody hates the Argentinians over the Falklands, and not many people still feel strongly about the IRA either (I know Southam disagrees!)"
Just what the actual fuck...No wonder no oldies say they will vote labour!
Communism probably killed 100 million or more. It was responsible for arguably the most appalling of all genocides, the Khmer Rouge, where a nation slaughtered between a quarter and third of its own people. At the same time it imprisoned and impoverished half the world for half a century. It is still destroying nations today - North Korea and Venezuela, for example.
The idea the hammer and sickle is some harmless bit of retro bunting is just puke-worthy. It might not have quite the Satanic implications of the Swastika, but it is a disturbing and repulsive symbol nonetheless, especially for those who suffered in the Soviet Bloc, or Mao's China.
No politician of any decency should go near it, let alone stand beneath it, proudly giving speeches.
McDonnell is an avowed Marxist whose two greatest influences are Lenin and Trotsky. Imagine Hammond being a self-confessed National Socialist who claimed Hitler and Goebbels as his political heroes. The double standard is grotesque.
There is a special horror at the thought of being gassed in a small room full of people.
Grossman gives a moving account of one of his characters going to the gas chamber in Life & Fate, made more so by the fact his own mother was murdered by the Nazis.
"In the same way, almost nobody hates the Argentinians over the Falklands, and not many people still feel strongly about the IRA either (I know Southam disagrees!)"
Just what the actual fuck...No wonder no oldies say they will vote labour!
Communism probably killed 100 million or more. It was responsible for arguably the most appalling of all genocides, the Khmer Rouge, where a nation slaughtered between a quarter and third of its own people. At the same time it imprisoned and impoverished half the world for half a century. It is still destroying nations today - North Korea and Venezuela, for example.
The idea the hammer and sickle is some harmless bit of retro bunting is just puke-worthy. It might not have quite the Satanic implications of the Swastika, but it is a disturbing and repulsive symbol nonetheless, especially for those who suffered in the Soviet Bloc, or Mao's China.
No politician of any decency should go near it, let alone stand beneath it, proudly giving speeches.
To be fair to Diane Abbott, when she hears that Mao killed 60 million people during his dictatorship, she probably thinks that means 60 people, over 400 years, in a population of 170 trillion.
Neil's aside at the end about Stalin, like Mao, leading his people from feudalism is superb.
OK. I got it. But where the hell did they get all those votes. They lost seats for pete's sake.
In most of the seats the Lib Dems lost their vote actually increased , sadly the Conservative vote increased by more
Succinctly put. Applies in Con-Lab marginals too. In Broxtowe Labour's vote went up 2.5% compared with 2013, but the Tory vote went up 12%, and the UKIP vote collapsed.
Opposition parties need one of two things to happen: either Tories need to start feeling uneasy aboutr giving May a super-blank cheque to do whatever (and if we're honest, do any of us REALLY feel they know what she'll try to do or what will happen?), or UKIP voters need to feel uneasy. Either is possible, but largely out of the hands of the opposition parties. I don't think it is primrily Carbyn and Farron that are their problem: it's that voters are buying the "gimme a mandate and I'll get the best deal" stuff. At an abstract level people do often agree that giving her such a huge majority that she can settle on any terms might not be wise, but only sophisticated, very interested voters change their votes on that basis.
1) It's interesting that you write of "UKIP voters" in the latter instance yet merely "Tories" in the former, when it certainly reads to me as though you mean "voters" in both instances. Does anyone who votes Tory become a Tory in your eyes, as your comrades so often declare?
2) Voting doesn't happen as a block deal. It's millions of people making up their own minds by whatever criteria they pick on, whilst only knowing how a few other people feel about it. At the moment, more of them are 'buying' the Conservatives' offer than are 'buying' Labour's or the Lib Dems.
I'm a left-leaning voter, and even I can see that for years, a large part of Labour's strategy has been rubbishing the Conservatives. Labour beat the Conservatives out of Scotland by rubbishing them, then the SNP came along offering more of that at a better price, and look what happened.
You really are simply re-phrasing the problem that opposition parties are having at the moment in terms that put the onus on the voters to see sense.
Try making the voters a better offer - one they'll be more inclined to buy.
Mr. Littlewood, it'd certainly encourage them to split, should Labour lose the General Election and Corbyn hold on as leader.
If they can get rid of Corbyn they may recover relatively rapidly, but if not, the choice is either form a new party (Labour less the lunatic) or leave the door open for the Lib Dems or another new party to surpass Labour as the alternative to the Conservatives.
The country really does need an opposition, and Corbyn's thoroughly incapable of providing it.
Mr. T, for a small split, I'd agree. But we know over 80% of PLP members (well, ex-members, technically there are no MPs now) have no confidence in Corbyn. If 80% of the party split, the new party becomes the Opposition, and that'd be a different ball game.
Does anyone think Macron's impending victory might shift the centre-left realignment narrative here?
Evidence A: Labour moderates shut up, huddle down and go down to an utterly crushing election defeat.
Evidence B: Telegenic moderate deserts the major failing party of the left, sets up his own new party and becomes President.
No. Not really. Because it's much much easier to do in France's presidential system, than in Britain's FPTP parliamentary system.
My back of a fag packet plan would be to use the Lib Dems as a vehicle and give up on Labour, despite the inexplicable brand value it still has.
Individual Labour MPs could say, "If, after the election, the Liberal Democrats are in a position to form a government, I would back Tim Farron in a confidence motion." Then after the election, those who are returned to parliament could defect en masse and make the Lib Dems the official opposition, claiming that their previous position provided enough legitimacy for the move.
ou should know there's an entire nation in South America which would probably like to shove that fucking horrible and very relevant flag up your ridiculous and imbecilic butt.
Most people in Venezuela remember Chavez fondly. He had one of the biggest funerals in the history of the world. So before you continue in that florid epithetic style (is it the flag or the pole you're talking about anyway?), you should reconsider the phrase "entire nation". Last I heard, the only countries in Latin America with full literacy were Cuba (achieved shortly after Castro came to office), Venezuela (Chavez), and Bolivia (Morales). Perhaps Ecuador is now on the list.
"In the same way, almost nobody hates the Argentinians over the Falklands, and not many people still feel strongly about the IRA either (I know Southam disagrees!)"
Just what the actual fuck...No wonder no oldies say they will vote labour!
Communism probably killed 100 million or more. It was responsible for arguably the most appalling of all genocides, the Khmer Rouge, where a nation slaughtered between a quarter and third of its own people. At the same time it imprisoned and impoverished half the world for half a century. It is still destroying nations today - North Korea and Venezuela, for example.
The idea the hammer and sickle is some harmless bit of retro bunting is just puke-worthy. It might not have quite the Satanic implications of the Swastika, but it is a disturbing and repulsive symbol nonetheless, especially for those who suffered in the Soviet Bloc, or Mao's China.
No politician of any decency should go near it, let alone stand beneath it, proudly giving speeches.
God she's stupid. Putting aside the obvious fact that taking your country out of feudalism and helping defeat the japanese do not begin to compensate for the lives of 60 million people, Mao didn't leave his country on the verge of their great economic success today. It was precisely once China rejected Maoism and his Great Leap Forward, that they began to see economic improvements.
Evidence A: Labour moderates shut up, huddle down and go down to an utterly crushing election defeat.
Evidence B: Telegenic moderate deserts the major failing party of the left, sets up his own new party and becomes President.'
No, we have already gone down this route with the SDP & done the Blair experience.
Just because something has been done once does not mean that is the end of history.
The SDP nearly succeeded in displacing Labour and only collapsed once Kinnock took over Labour and fought to expel Militant (though he left people like Corbyn). Only once Labour changed into the SDP themselves did Labour recover and ultimately win under Blair.
Had Foot been replaced by eg Benn instead of Kinnock then its entirely possible that by 1987 the SDP would have replacd Labour as the official opposition and ultimately formed the next government after the Tories.
"In the same way, almost nobody hates the Argentinians over the Falklands, and not many people still feel strongly about the IRA either (I know Southam disagrees!)"
Just what the actual fuck...No wonder no oldies say they will vote labour!
Communism probably killed 100 million or more. It was responsible for arguably the most appalling of all genocides, the Khmer Rouge, where a nation slaughtered between a quarter and third of its own people. At the same time it imprisoned and impoverished half the world for half a century. It is still destroying nations today - North Korea and Venezuela, for example.
The idea the hammer and sickle is some harmless bit of retro bunting is just puke-worthy. It might not have quite the Satanic implications of the Swastika, but it is a disturbing and repulsive symbol nonetheless, especially for those who suffered in the Soviet Bloc, or Mao's China.
No politician of any decency should go near it, let alone stand beneath it, proudly giving speeches.
God she's stupid. Putting aside the obvious fact that taking your country out of feudalism and helping defeat the japanese do not begin to compensate for the lives of 60 million people, Mao didn't leave his country on the verge of their great economic success today. It was precisely once China rejected Maoism and his Great Leap Forward, that they began to see economic improvements.
None of my friends or family went to university, yet I don't know anyone as stupid as Diane Abbott. 34 years as an MP, how has she made a living out of politics? How did she even get a foot in the door? I can only think it was affirmative action from the GLC or ILEA
ou should know there's an entire nation in South America which would probably like to shove that fucking horrible and very relevant flag up your ridiculous and imbecilic butt.
Most people in Venezuela remember Chavez fondly. He had one of the biggest funerals in the history of the world. So before you continue in that florid epithetic style (is it the flag or the pole you're talking about anyway?), you should reconsider the phrase "entire nation". Last I heard, the only countries in Latin America with full literacy were Cuba (achieved shortly after Castro came to office), Venezuela (Chavez), and Bolivia (Morales). Perhaps Ecuador is now on the list.
"They remember Chavez fondly". Really? Is that why they are tearing down statues of the man?
As for literacy and development, the richest and most advanced nation in South America is Chile, pretty much a First World Country, now. Coincidentally, they managed to avoid communism and socialism altogether.
Bolivia, meanwhile, is the poorest nation on the continent (though now rivalled by Venezuela)
A lot of Chileans give quiet thanks to Pinochet, for all his horrors. I know this, because I was in Chile and Bolivia late last year.
To be fair, Bolivia is landlocked and fairly hilly if I remember my geography.
Just got canvassed by Labour (Greenwich & Woolwich) - never happened last time.
The conversation went:
Him: "I'm here on behalf of the Labour Party" Me: "Two words: Jeremy Corbyn. Thank you." *shuts door*
I hope that's enough to get me put down as "against".
It can't be much fun being a labour doorknocker right now.
Btw, I owe you an apology. I had you down as one of the PB rightwingers who (hilariously) paid £3 to elect Corbyn back in 2015. It occurred to me that I might have made a mistake. So I checked - and I did. There were quite a few £3 rightwing Corbyn trolls - and some who continue to post - but you weren't one of them.
So apologies for my hostility directed at a few of your recent posts, particularly in our discussion last week where I went at you quite hard. Sorry about that, you didn't deserve it.
Thanks, Pong, I appreciate it. I couldn't quite understand why you were firing at me and the post you quoted at the time didn't shed any light as I knew I hadn't voted for Corbyn and I knew I had voted honestly, ie for who I thought was the best leader to take Labour where it needed to be for the good of the country.
Not that it made a difference to the final tally, but why JC over AB?
I am now wondering about that too. Burnham must have done something during the campaign to really turn me off but I can't now remember what it was. Maybe my posts from the time might shed some light but I haven't got the time to trawl through them now. Maybe this evening.
I certainly thought that it was the other way round, showing that I'm not immune to false recall!
I went to a Burnham rally at the time and found him disappointing.Perhaps you sensed the same from the tv. I voted Yvette, not that it did her much good.
I seem to remember that the SNP are quite keen to get to look at the books in Glasgow: is there anything to that? What are they expecting to find?
Decades of corruption and nepotism - quangos that do nothing other than provide jobs for the boys and their families - dodgy property deals etc etc etc.
I think there's probably enough for Private Eye to run a few Glasgow/SLAB rottenburgh special editions !!
"In the same way, almost nobody hates the Argentinians over the Falklands, and not many people still feel strongly about the IRA either (I know Southam disagrees!)"
Just what the actual fuck...No wonder no oldies say they will vote labour!
Communism probably killed 100 million or more. It was responsible for arguably the most appalling of all genocides, the Khmer Rouge, where a nation slaughtered between a quarter and third of its own people. At the same time it imprisoned and impoverished half the world for half a century. It is still destroying nations today - North Korea and Venezuela, for example.
The idea the hammer and sickle is some harmless bit of retro bunting is just puke-worthy. It might not have quite the Satanic implications of the Swastika, but it is a disturbing and repulsive symbol nonetheless, especially for those who suffered in the Soviet Bloc, or Mao's China.
No politician of any decency should go near it, let alone stand beneath it, proudly giving speeches.
God she's stupid. Putting aside the obvious fact that taking your country out of feudalism and helping defeat the japanese do not begin to compensate for the lives of 60 million people, Mao didn't leave his country on the verge of their great economic success today. It was precisely once China rejected Maoism and his Great Leap Forward, that they began to see economic improvements.
She's not even correct. Mao played very little in the defeat of Japan, and, according to Deng Xiao Ping, living standards in rural China were actually worse in 1976 than in 1949.
As for literacy and development, the richest and most advanced nation in South America is Chile, pretty much a First World Country, now. Coincidentally, they managed to avoid communism and socialism altogether.
Bolivia, meanwhile, is the poorest nation on the continent (though now rivalled by Venezuela)
A lot of Chileans give quiet thanks to Pinochet, for all his horrors. I know this, because I was in Chile and Bolivia late last year.
To be fair, Bolivia is landlocked and fairly hilly if I remember my geography.
And Chile's had years of socialist governments. Like Britain, you can meet people with every point of view in eevery country.
I seem to remember that the SNP are quite keen to get to look at the books in Glasgow: is there anything to that? What are they expecting to find?
Decades of corruption and nepotism - quangos that do nothing other than provide jobs for the boys and their families - dodgy property deals etc etc etc.
I think there's probably enough for Private Eye to run a few Glasgow/SLAB rottenburgh special editions !!
If there is anything there, would it come out in time for the general?
I seem to remember that the SNP are quite keen to get to look at the books in Glasgow: is there anything to that? What are they expecting to find?
Decades of corruption and nepotism - quangos that do nothing other than provide jobs for the boys and their families - dodgy property deals etc etc etc.
I think there's probably enough for Private Eye to run a few Glasgow/SLAB rottenburgh special editions !!
ou should know there's an entire nation in South America which would probably like to shove that fucking horrible and very relevant flag up your ridiculous and imbecilic butt.
Most people in Venezuela remember Chavez fondly. He had one of the biggest funerals in the history of the world. So before you continue in that florid epithetic style (is it the flag or the pole you're talking about anyway?), you should reconsider the phrase "entire nation". Last I heard, the only countries in Latin America with full literacy were Cuba (achieved shortly after Castro came to office), Venezuela (Chavez), and Bolivia (Morales). Perhaps Ecuador is now on the list.
"They remember Chavez fondly". Really? Is that why they are tearing down statues of the man?
As for literacy and development, the richest and most advanced nation in South America is Chile, pretty much a First World Country, now. Coincidentally, they managed to avoid communism and socialism altogether.
Bolivia, meanwhile, is the poorest nation on the continent (though now rivalled by Venezuela)
A lot of Chileans give quiet thanks to Pinochet, for all his horrors. I know this, because I was in Chile and Bolivia late last year.
To be fair, Bolivia is landlocked and fairly hilly if I remember my geography.
And it's been dumped on by every nation around, and ransacked by every empire. Bolivia is land of very nice people, pretty horrible food, spectacular landscapes, intriguing cultures, and distressing pockets of serious poverty. Plus the Road of Death. And the salt flats of Uyuni! And Titicaca and the Island of the Sun...
I had a great time. It's a daunting place to visit - the altitude is relentless - but brilliantly unforgettable. If you ever get the chance, go.
According to this it is one of 22 countries that we haven't invaded (or, looking at it more closely, been at war with in some form).
OK. I got it. But where the hell did they get all those votes. They lost seats for pete's sake.
In most of the seats the Lib Dems lost their vote actually increased , sadly the Conservative vote increased by more
Succinctly put. Applies in Con-Lab marginals too. In Broxtowe Labour's vote went up 2.5% compared with 2013, but the Tory vote went up 12%, and the UKIP vote collapsed.
Opposition parties need one of two things to happen: either Tories need to start feeling uneasy aboutr giving May a super-blank cheque to do whatever (and if we're honest, do any of us REALLY feel they know what she'll try to do or what will happen?), or UKIP voters need to feel uneasy. Either is possible, but largely out of the hands of the opposition parties. I don't think it is primrily Carbyn and Farron that are their problem: it's that voters are buying the "gimme a mandate and I'll get the best deal" stuff. At an abstract level people do often agree that giving her such a huge majority that she can settle on any terms might not be wise, but only sophisticated, very interested voters change their votes on that basis.
1) It's interesting that you write of "UKIP voters" in the latter instance yet merely "Tories" in the former, when it certainly reads to me as though you mean "voters" in both instances. Does anyone who votes Tory become a Tory in your eyes, as your comrades so often declare?
2) Voting doesn't happen as a block deal. It's millions of people making up their own minds by whatever criteria they pick on, whilst only knowing how a few other people feel about it. At the moment, more of them are 'buying' the Conservatives' offer than are 'buying' Labour's or the Lib Dems.
I'm a left-leaning voter, and even I can see that for years, a large part of Labour's strategy has been rubbishing the Conservatives. Labour beat the Conservatives out of Scotland by rubbishing them, then the SNP came along offering more of that at a better price, and look what happened.
You really are simply re-phrasing the problem that opposition parties are having at the moment in terms that put the onus on the voters to see sense.
Try making the voters a better offer - one they'll be more inclined to buy.
Sorry to butt in but surely Anne that the Tories are just as bad, rubbishing their opponents. I certainly heard Ed M's policies in 2015 as I hear JC's now. You might not always agree with them, but if you are prepared to listen they are at the least a basis for discussion.
OK. I got it. But where the hell did they get all those votes. They lost seats for pete's sake.
In most of the seats the Lib Dems lost their vote actually increased , sadly the Conservative vote increased by more
Succinctly put. Applies in Con-Lab marginals too. In Broxtowe Labour's vote went up 2.5% compared with 2013, but the Tory vote went up 12%, and the UKIP vote collapsed.
.
1) It's interesting that you write of "UKIP voters" in the latter instance yet merely "Tories" in the former, when it certainly reads to me as though you mean "voters" in both instances. Does anyone who votes Tory become a Tory in your eyes, as your comrades so often declare?
2) Voting doesn't happen as a block deal. It's millions of people making up their own minds by whatever criteria they pick on, whilst only knowing how a few other people feel about it. At the moment, more of them are 'buying' the Conservatives' offer than are 'buying' Labour's or the Lib Dems.
I'm a left-leaning voter, and even I can see that for years, a large part of Labour's strategy has been rubbishing the Conservatives. Labour beat the Conservatives out of Scotland by rubbishing them, then the SNP came along offering more of that at a better price, and look what happened.
You really are simply re-phrasing the problem that opposition parties are having at the moment in terms that put the onus on the voters to see sense.
Try making the voters a better offer - one they'll be more inclined to buy.
I wouldn't put much weight on my wording - it's just that we don't have a polite one-word name for UKIP voters (Kippers sounds a bit contemptuous). I largely agree with you, and certainly never write off anyone. I'm the only Labour MP ever in Broxtowe so far, and I got it by persuading loads of people who'd voted Tory.
But getting a hearing is difficult at present - partly the dominance of Brexit as an issue, partly really is the media, partly that people have switched off on both Labour and LibDems so even when our policies do appeal they aren't especially linking them to us. That's where I'm afraid having a charismatic leader like Blair does help, though my austere side feels it shouldn't be necessary, and it's why Corbyn's best shot, as Simon Jenkins says, is to be himself and let rip, rather than cautiously nose around trying not to make mistakes.
I seem to remember that the SNP are quite keen to get to look at the books in Glasgow: is there anything to that? What are they expecting to find?
Decades of corruption and nepotism - quangos that do nothing other than provide jobs for the boys and their families - dodgy property deals etc etc etc.
I think there's probably enough for Private Eye to run a few Glasgow/SLAB rottenburgh special editions !!
If there is anything there, would it come out in time for the general?
Even if it does, SLAB's rottenburgh rep in Glasgow & West is well known , so probably wouldn't have that much impact.
Excellent analytical article. My one caveat would be the SW London seats - I suspect Zac will be back [ unfortunately] and am not convinced even on Twickenham. they will need to get and maintain considerable momentum and I'd expect a fierce fightback from the Tories. Time of course will tell.
Does anyone know the % vote shares yesterday for Scotland?
First preferences have been estimated as SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.
I seem to remember that the SNP are quite keen to get to look at the books in Glasgow: is there anything to that? What are they expecting to find?
Surely the books are public record anyway?
And, to the extent that they are not, the Council officers concerned are hardly going to offer anything dodgy right up, just like that. The SNP will have to know what to ask for,
I seem to remember that the SNP are quite keen to get to look at the books in Glasgow: is there anything to that? What are they expecting to find?
Decades of corruption and nepotism - quangos that do nothing other than provide jobs for the boys and their families - dodgy property deals etc etc etc.
I think there's probably enough for Private Eye to run a few Glasgow/SLAB rottenburgh special editions !!
If there is anything there, would it come out in time for the general?
Even if it does, SLAB's rottenburgh rep in Glasgow & West is well known , so probably wouldn't have that much impact.
It's not like it could cost them any seats I suppose.
ou should know there's an entire nation in South America which would probably like to shove that fucking horrible and very relevant flag up your ridiculous and imbecilic butt.
Most people in Venezuela remember Chavez fondly. He had one of the biggest funerals in the history of the world. So before you continue in that florid epithetic style (is it the flag or the pole you're talking about anyway?), you should reconsider the phrase "entire nation". Last I heard, the only countries in Latin America with full literacy were Cuba (achieved shortly after Castro came to office), Venezuela (Chavez), and Bolivia (Morales). Perhaps Ecuador is now on the list.
"They remember Chavez fondly". Really? Is that why they are tearing down statues of the man?
As for literacy and development, the richest and most advanced nation in South America is Chile, pretty much a First World Country, now. Coincidentally, they managed to avoid communism and socialism altogether.
Bolivia, meanwhile, is the poorest nation on the continent (though now rivalled by Venezuela)
A lot of Chileans give quiet thanks to Pinochet, for all his horrors. I know this, because I was in Chile and Bolivia late last year.
Nevertheless if we're now trying to defend Pinochet, this debate has taken a wrong turn somewhere. Its possible to condemn the devastating effect that communism has had on millions of people's lives without sticking up for Mr P.
Excellent analytical article. My one caveat would be the SW London seats - I suspect Zac will be back [ unfortunately] and am not convinced even on Twickenham. they will need to get and maintain considerable momentum and I'd expect a fierce fightback from the Tories. Time of course will tell.
Does anyone know the % vote shares yesterday for Scotland?
First preferences have been estimated as SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.
ou should know there's an entire nation in South America which would probably like to shove that fucking horrible and very relevant flag up your ridiculous and imbecilic butt.
Most people in Venezuela remember Chavez fondly. He had one of the biggest funerals in the history of the world. So before you continue in that florid epithetic style (is it the flag or the pole you're talking about anyway?), you should reconsider the phrase "entire nation". Last I heard, the only countries in Latin America with full literacy were Cuba (achieved shortly after Castro came to office), Venezuela (Chavez), and Bolivia (Morales). Perhaps Ecuador is now on the list.
"They remember Chavez fondly". Really? Is that why they are tearing down statues of the man?
As for literacy and development, the richest and most advanced nation in South America is Chile, pretty much a First World Country, now. Coincidentally, they managed to avoid communism and socialism altogether.
Bolivia, meanwhile, is the poorest nation on the continent (though now rivalled by Venezuela)
A lot of Chileans give quiet thanks to Pinochet, for all his horrors. I know this, because I was in Chile and Bolivia late last year.
To be fair, Bolivia is landlocked and fairly hilly if I remember my geography.
And it's been dumped on by every nation around, and ransacked by every empire. Bolivia is land of very nice people, pretty horrible food, spectacular landscapes, intriguing cultures, and distressing pockets of serious poverty. Plus the Road of Death. And the salt flats of Uyuni! And Titicaca and the Island of the Sun...
I had a great time. It's a daunting place to visit - the altitude is relentless - but brilliantly unforgettable. If you ever get the chance, go.
According to this it is one of 22 countries that we haven't invaded (or, looking at it more closely, been at war with in some form).
Interesting to see we've never invaded Sweden when they (or their viking ancestors) did invade Jorvik.
OK. I got it. But where the hell did they get all those votes. They lost seats for pete's sake.
.
.
1) It's interesting that you write of "UKIP voters" in the latter instance yet merely "Tories" in the former, when it certainly reads to me as though you mean "voters" in both instances. Does anyone who votes Tory become a Tory in your eyes, as your comrades so often declare?
2) Voting doesn't happen as a block deal. It's millions of people making up their own minds by whatever criteria they pick on, whilst only knowing how a few other people feel about it. At the moment, more of them are 'buying' the Conservatives' offer than are 'buying' Labour's or the Lib Dems.
I'm a left-leaning voter, and even I can see that for years, a large part of Labour's strategy has been rubbishing the Conservatives. Labour beat the Conservatives out of Scotland by rubbishing them, then the SNP came along offering more of that at a better price, and look what happened.
You really are simply re-phrasing the problem that opposition parties are having at the moment in terms that put the onus on the voters to see sense.
Try making the voters a better offer - one they'll be more inclined to buy.
I wouldn't put much weight on my wording - it's just that we don't have a polite one-word name for UKIP voters (Kippers sounds a bit contemptuous). I largely agree with you, and certainly never write off anyone. I'm the only Labour MP ever in Broxtowe so far, and I got it by persuading loads of people who'd voted Tory.
But getting a hearing is difficult at present - partly the dominance of Brexit as an issue, partly really is the media, partly that people have switched off on both Labour and LibDems so even when our policies do appeal they aren't especially linking them to us. That's where I'm afraid having a charismatic leader like Blair does help, though my austere side feels it shouldn't be necessary, and it's why Corbyn's best shot, as Simon Jenkins says, is to be himself and let rip, rather than cautiously nose around trying not to make mistakes.
Labour's problem isn't policies, it's that hardly anyone trusts them to manage things well, and next to no-one trusts them to be able to pay for anything. They can't even run their own party, why would anyone trust them to run the country? It's like you went round to a builder's house and found that it was falling down; you would just turn away, whatever quote they gave you or promises they made.
That's why the Abbott piece was so damaging - it played right into the concerns most people have about Labour.
ou should know there's an entire nation in South America which would probably like to shove that fucking horrible and very relevant flag up your ridiculous and imbecilic butt.
Most people in Venezuela remember Chavez fondly. He had one of the biggest funerals in the history of the world. So before you continue in that florid epithetic style (is it the flag or the pole you're talking about anyway?), you should reconsider the phrase "entire nation". Last I heard, the only countries in Latin America with full literacy were Cuba (achieved shortly after Castro came to office), Venezuela (Chavez), and Bolivia (Morales). Perhaps Ecuador is now on the list.
"They remember Chavez fondly". Really? Is that why they are tearing down statues of the man?
As for literacy and development, the richest and most advanced nation in South America is Chile, pretty much a First World Country, now. Coincidentally, they managed to avoid communism and socialism altogether.
Bolivia, meanwhile, is the poorest nation on the continent (though now rivalled by Venezuela)
A lot of Chileans give quiet thanks to Pinochet, for all his horrors. I know this, because I was in Chile and Bolivia late last year.
To be fair, Bolivia is landlocked and fairly hilly if I remember my geography.
And it's been dumped on by every nation around, and ransacked by every empire. Bolivia is land of very nice people, pretty horrible food, spectacular landscapes, intriguing cultures, and distressing pockets of serious poverty. Plus the Road of Death. And the salt flats of Uyuni! And Titicaca and the Island of the Sun...
I had a great time. It's a daunting place to visit - the altitude is relentless - but brilliantly unforgettable. If you ever get the chance, go.
According to this it is one of 22 countries that we haven't invaded (or, looking at it more closely, been at war with in some form).
Interesting to see we've never invaded Sweden when they (or their viking ancestors) did invade Jorvik.
I think that is the one that most supprised me. Most of the others are landlocked, very small (with powerful friends) or both.
Aunty spoke to him this morning: - "Speaking for the first time since it lost all but one of its county council seats, he said the rout was expected and UKIP's future was still bright."
ou should know there's an entire nation in South America which would probably like to shove that fucking horrible and very relevant flag up your ridiculous and imbecilic butt.
Most people in Venezuela remember Chavez fondly. He had one of the biggest funerals in the history of the world. So before you continue in that florid epithetic style (is it the flag or the pole you're talking about anyway?), you should reconsider the phrase "entire nation". Last I heard, the only countries in Latin America with full literacy were Cuba (achieved shortly after Castro came to office), Venezuela (Chavez), and Bolivia (Morales). Perhaps Ecuador is now on the list.
"They remember Chavez fondly". Really? Is that why they are tearing down statues of the man?
As for literacy and development, the richest and most advanced nation in South America is Chile, pretty much a First World Country, now. Coincidentally, they managed to avoid communism and socialism altogether.
Bolivia, meanwhile, is the poorest nation on the continent (though now rivalled by Venezuela)
A lot of Chileans give quiet thanks to Pinochet, for all his horrors. I know this, because I was in Chile and Bolivia late last year.
To be fair, Bolivia is landlocked and fairly hilly if I remember my geography.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
True - though SLAB outperformed expectations more than the Tories.Few expected them to poll 21/22%.
I still maintain that Labour gaining Leeds North West is worth a punt.
Just as the Tories are cannibalizing the UKIP vote, the evidence yesterday is that Labour are swallowing the Green vote. The 7% Green vote from 2015 is just enough to put Lab over the top in Leeds NW, all other things being equal...
ou should know there's an entire nation in South America which would probably like to shove that fucking horrible and very relevant flag up your ridiculous and imbecilic butt.
Most people in Venezuela remember Chavez fondly. He had one of the biggest funerals in the history of the world. So before you continue in that florid epithetic style (is it the flag or the pole you're talking about anyway?), you should reconsider the phrase "entire nation". Last I heard, the only countries in Latin America with full literacy were Cuba (achieved shortly after Castro came to office), Venezuela (Chavez), and Bolivia (Morales). Perhaps Ecuador is now on the list.
"They remember Chavez fondly". Really? Is that why they are tearing down statues of the man?
As for literacy and development, the richest and most advanced nation in South America is Chile, pretty much a First World Country, now. Coincidentally, they managed to avoid communism and socialism altogether.
Bolivia, meanwhile, is the poorest nation on the continent (though now rivalled by Venezuela)
A lot of Chileans give quiet thanks to Pinochet, for all his horrors. I know this, because I was in Chile and Bolivia late last year.
To be fair, Bolivia is landlocked and fairly hilly if I remember my geography.
Glasgow: SNP 39 seats, Labour 31, Conservative 8 and Greens 7.
Looks like an SNP/Green deal to me.
The SNP only need the Greens to give them the Mayor/Chair (whoever has the casting vote). Let them have the chair of the environment scrutiny committee, or some such, in return.
Excellent analytical article. My one caveat would be the SW London seats - I suspect Zac will be back [ unfortunately] and am not convinced even on Twickenham. they will need to get and maintain considerable momentum and I'd expect a fierce fightback from the Tories. Time of course will tell.
Does anyone know the % vote shares yesterday for Scotland?
First preferences have been estimated as SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.
So The Ruth Davidson party barely better than SLab, and a significantly worse vote share than Corbyn Labour in England.
I still maintain that Labour gaining Leeds North West is worth a punt.
Just as the Tories are cannibalizing the UKIP vote, the evidence yesterday is that Labour are swallowing the Green vote. The 7% Green vote from 2015 is just enough to put Lab over the top in Leeds NW, all other things being equal...
I'm not sure about that, but I think odds against Labour in Bristol West is a good bet.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
True - though SLAB outperformed expectations more than the Tories.Few expected them to poll 21/22%.
SCON just managed to beat SLAB - perhaps we've already seen peak SCON
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
True - though SLAB outperformed expectations more than the Tories.Few expected them to poll 21/22%.
SCON just managed to beat SLAB - perhaps we've already seen peak SCON
When was the last time SCON beat SLAB in a comparable election?
Excellent analytical article. My one caveat would be the SW London seats - I suspect Zac will be back [ unfortunately] and am not convinced even on Twickenham. they will need to get and maintain considerable momentum and I'd expect a fierce fightback from the Tories. Time of course will tell.
Does anyone know the % vote shares yesterday for Scotland?
First preferences have been estimated as SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.
So The Ruth Davidson party barely better than SLab, and a significantly worse vote share than Corbyn Labour in England.
'Only one winner'
It will be interesting to see whether "unionist tactical voting" is an even bigger thing in the GE.
If unionists really do club together and get behind whichever party did best against the SNP yesterday, then the SNP could lose a surprising number of seats. On the other hand, will SLAB voters' "unionism" really trump their loathing of the Tories in Moray, Perthshire, Stirling, etc.? And will SCON voters' "unionism" trump their disdain for Corbyn Labour in East Lothian, Glasgow and bits of Edinburgh? Dunno.
ou should know there's an entire nation in South America which would probably like to shove that fucking horrible and very relevant flag up your ridiculous and imbecilic butt.
Most people in Venezuela remember Chavez fondly. He had one of the biggest funerals in the history of the world. So before you continue in that florid epithetic style (is it the flag or the pole you're talking about anyway?), you should reconsider the phrase "entire nation". Last I heard, the only countries in Latin America with full literacy were Cuba (achieved shortly after Castro came to office), Venezuela (Chavez), and Bolivia (Morales). Perhaps Ecuador is now on the list.
"They remember Chavez fondly". Really? Is that why they are tearing down statues of the man?
As for literacy and development, the richest and most advanced nation in South America is Chile, pretty much a First World Country, now. Coincidentally, they managed to avoid communism and socialism altogether.
Bolivia, meanwhile, is the poorest nation on the continent (though now rivalled by Venezuela)
A lot of Chileans give quiet thanks to Pinochet, for all his horrors. I know this, because I was in Chile and Bolivia late last year.
To be fair, Bolivia is landlocked and fairly hilly if I remember my geography.
Excellent analytical article. My one caveat would be the SW London seats - I suspect Zac will be back [ unfortunately] and am not convinced even on Twickenham. they will need to get and maintain considerable momentum and I'd expect a fierce fightback from the Tories. Time of course will tell.
Does anyone know the % vote shares yesterday for Scotland?
First preferences have been estimated as SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.
So The Ruth Davidson party barely better than SLab, and a significantly worse vote share than Corbyn Labour in England.
Of course it's preferable to (more or less) have peace in Northern Ireland but to imply people have forgotten what atrocities they committed is nonsense.
I have someone who works in my team whose father was in the Army, and growing up in Germany they had to check under their car every single time they used it. Evil scumbags who murdered innocents.
Not forgotten. Sorry.
And the juxtaposition of Corbyn's tweet about Venezuela with the latest reports from there will be going on my Facebook page on June 7th just in case there's anyone left thinking of voting Labour
' I have had a look at the local by-elections held in county wards since the referendum and worked on the assumption that dependent on how that county voted at the referendum, the local by-elections will be indicative of the final result '
Now the 15 counties which had boundary changes didn't get a councillor prediction but for the others HH predicted:
Con 646 Lab 208 LibD 317
The actual results were:
Con 793 Lab 241 LibD 162
A difference of:
Con +147 Lab +33 LibD -155
In every single prediction the LibDems were too high.
As a predictive tool local by-elections are shite, as a method for ramping LibDem chances they're great.
ou should know there's an entire nation in South America which would probably like to shove that fucking horrible and very relevant flag up your ridiculous and imbecilic butt.
Most people in Venezuela remember Chavez fondly. He had one of the biggest funerals in the history of the world. So before you continue in that florid epithetic style (is it the flag or the pole you're talking about anyway?), you should reconsider the phrase "entire nation". Last I heard, the only countries in Latin America with full literacy were Cuba (achieved shortly after Castro came to office), Venezuela (Chavez), and Bolivia (Morales). Perhaps Ecuador is now on the list.
"They remember Chavez fondly". Really? Is that why they are tearing down statues of the man?
As for literacy and development, the richest and most advanced nation in South America is Chile, pretty much a First World Country, now. Coincidentally, they managed to avoid communism and socialism altogether.
Bolivia, meanwhile, is the poorest nation on the continent (though now rivalled by Venezuela)
A lot of Chileans give quiet thanks to Pinochet, for all his horrors. I know this, because I was in Chile and Bolivia late last year.
To be fair, Bolivia is landlocked and fairly hilly if I remember my geography.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
True - though SLAB outperformed expectations more than the Tories.Few expected them to poll 21/22%.
SCON just managed to beat SLAB - perhaps we've already seen peak SCON
When was the last time SCON beat SLAB in a comparable election?
Of course it's preferable to (more or less) have peace in Northern Ireland but to imply people have forgotten what atrocities they committed is nonsense.
I have someone who works in my team whose father was in the Army, and growing up in Germany they had to check under their car every single time they used it. Evil scumbags who murdered innocents.
Not forgotten. Sorry.
And the juxtaposition of Corbyn's tweet about Venezuela with the latest reports from there will be going on my Facebook page on June 7th just in case there's anyone left thinking of voting Labour
my dad was a policeman in NI
he checked under his car every day for about 25 years
always gave a sharper twist to turning the ignition
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
True - though SLAB outperformed expectations more than the Tories.Few expected them to poll 21/22%.
SCON just managed to beat SLAB - perhaps we've already seen peak SCON
When was the last time SCON beat SLAB in a comparable election?
Holyrood 2016?
So two years in a row now SCON have beaten SLAB. I wouldn't have thought Holyrood and Local elections were comparable though. When was the last time SCON beat SLAB in the locals?
Excellent analytical article. My one caveat would be the SW London seats - I suspect Zac will be back [ unfortunately] and am not convinced even on Twickenham. they will need to get and maintain considerable momentum and I'd expect a fierce fightback from the Tories. Time of course will tell.
Does anyone know the % vote shares yesterday for Scotland?
First preferences have been estimated as SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.
So The Ruth Davidson party barely better than SLab, and a significantly worse vote share than Corbyn Labour in England.
'Only one winner'
It will be interesting to see whether "unionist tactical voting" is an even bigger thing in the GE.
If unionists really do club together and get behind whichever party did best against the SNP yesterday, then the SNP could lose a surprising number of seats. On the other hand, will SLAB voters' "unionism" really trump their loathing of the Tories in Moray, Perthshire, Stirling, etc.? And will SCON voters' "unionism" trump their disdain for Corbyn Labour in East Lothian, Glasgow and bits of Edinburgh? Dunno.
I can only see it being tacit, if that. Both parties have very strong motives to make electoral gains, SLab for survival and SCons to become THE Unionist opposition party. It'll largely be down to the voters to get their tactical mojo on I think.
I still maintain that Labour gaining Leeds North West is worth a punt.
Just as the Tories are cannibalizing the UKIP vote, the evidence yesterday is that Labour are swallowing the Green vote. The 7% Green vote from 2015 is just enough to put Lab over the top in Leeds NW, all other things being equal...
I'm not sure about that, but I think odds against Labour in Bristol West is a good bet.
Labour look well placed to hold Cardiff Central (5/4) based on the Welsh local results.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
True - though SLAB outperformed expectations more than the Tories.Few expected them to poll 21/22%.
SCON just managed to beat SLAB - perhaps we've already seen peak SCON
When was the last time SCON beat SLAB in a comparable election?
Holyrood 2016?
So two years in a row now SCON have beaten SLAB. I wouldn't have thought Holyrood and Local elections were comparable though. When was the last time SCON beat SLAB in the locals?
For a more comparable election, one report I read claimed it was the best result since local authority boundaries were redrawn in 1974.
Excellent analytical article. My one caveat would be the SW London seats - I suspect Zac will be back [ unfortunately] and am not convinced even on Twickenham. they will need to get and maintain considerable momentum and I'd expect a fierce fightback from the Tories. Time of course will tell.
Does anyone know the % vote shares yesterday for Scotland?
First preferences have been estimated as SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.
So The Ruth Davidson party barely better than SLab, and a significantly worse vote share than Corbyn Labour in England.
'Only one winner'
It will be interesting to see whether "unionist tactical voting" is an even bigger thing in the GE.
If unionists really do club together and get behind whichever party did best against the SNP yesterday, then the SNP could lose a surprising number of seats. On the other hand, will SLAB voters' "unionism" really trump their loathing of the Tories in Moray, Perthshire, Stirling, etc.? And will SCON voters' "unionism" trump their disdain for Corbyn Labour in East Lothian, Glasgow and bits of Edinburgh? Dunno.
Problem with tactical voting is that many of the seats where this could have an impact are now 3 way marginals - e.g. my seat Stirling - SCON 3rd in GE 2015 - probably now level pegging with SLAB a few % points behind the SNP. The same picture in Jim Murphy's old seat. I can't see SLAB even considering supporting tactical voting in these SCON target seats.
SLAB's surprisingly strong showing in the Council Elections, may make many SCON tactical voters think twice about supporting SLAB as this could result in them possibly beating SCON in the % of votes !!
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
True - though SLAB outperformed expectations more than the Tories.Few expected them to poll 21/22%.
SCON just managed to beat SLAB - perhaps we've already seen peak SCON
When was the last time SCON beat SLAB in a comparable election?
Holyrood 2016?
So two years in a row now SCON have beaten SLAB. I wouldn't have thought Holyrood and Local elections were comparable though. When was the last time SCON beat SLAB in the locals?
For a more comparable election, one report I read claimed it was the best result since local authority boundaries were redrawn in 1974.
In terms of vote share, it's about as good as 1992 for the Scottish Conservatives. But, that was the last decent result for them until 2016.
I still maintain that Labour gaining Leeds North West is worth a punt.
Just as the Tories are cannibalizing the UKIP vote, the evidence yesterday is that Labour are swallowing the Green vote. The 7% Green vote from 2015 is just enough to put Lab over the top in Leeds NW, all other things being equal...
I'm not sure about that, but I think odds against Labour in Bristol West is a good bet.
Labour look well placed to hold Cardiff Central (5/4) based on the Welsh local results.
Hmm I've backed the Lib Dems here but I have a wodge arriving if we have under 19 seats. I've got it down as seat 12 in the model...
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
True - though SLAB outperformed expectations more than the Tories.Few expected them to poll 21/22%.
SCON just managed to beat SLAB - perhaps we've already seen peak SCON
When was the last time SCON beat SLAB in a comparable election?
Mass excitement of PB Toryites at Tory "victory" in Scotland except by the same definition Corbyn would be triumphant in England.
It is all an illusion. Tory success in deprived urban areas on Thursday was built on 12 per cent of the first preference vote under the STV system. It is as about as real as the IDS mission to Castlemilk all of these years ago.
Meanwhile Tory success in rural areas is built on fighting a local election as a general election and securing a large differential turnout. Trouble is in a months time everyone will be fighting a general election and the turnout will reflect that.
Pride and falls should be the wise Tory watchwords in Scotland but it shall not be thus. Davidson will screech and overreach and come back down with a bump.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
True - though SLAB outperformed expectations more than the Tories.Few expected them to poll 21/22%.
SCON just managed to beat SLAB - perhaps we've already seen peak SCON
When was the last time SCON beat SLAB in a comparable election?
Holyrood 2016?
So two years in a row now SCON have beaten SLAB. I wouldn't have thought Holyrood and Local elections were comparable though. When was the last time SCON beat SLAB in the locals?
For a more comparable election, one report I read claimed it was the best result since local authority boundaries were redrawn in 1974.
In terms of vote share, it's about as good as 1992 for the Scottish Conservatives. But, that was the last decent result for them until 2016.
The Guardian also reports Scottish Labour coming third hasn’t happened since 1910.
Excellent analytical article. My one caveat would be the SW London seats - I suspect Zac will be back [ unfortunately] and am not convinced even on Twickenham. they will need to get and maintain considerable momentum and I'd expect a fierce fightback from the Tories. Time of course will tell.
Does anyone know the % vote shares yesterday for Scotland?
First preferences have been estimated as SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.
I guess we must wait for polls to see how that changes when Independents are taken into account.
Excellent analytical article. My one caveat would be the SW London seats - I suspect Zac will be back [ unfortunately] and am not convinced even on Twickenham. they will need to get and maintain considerable momentum and I'd expect a fierce fightback from the Tories. Time of course will tell.
Does anyone know the % vote shares yesterday for Scotland?
First preferences have been estimated as SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.
So The Ruth Davidson party barely better than SLab, and a significantly worse vote share than Corbyn Labour in England.
'Only one winner'
The SNP also did worse in Scotland than May's Tories did UK wide
I seem to remember that the SNP are quite keen to get to look at the books in Glasgow: is there anything to that? What are they expecting to find?
Decades of corruption and nepotism - quangos that do nothing other than provide jobs for the boys and their families - dodgy property deals etc etc etc.
I think there's probably enough for Private Eye to run a few Glasgow/SLAB rottenburgh special editions !!
If there is anything there, would it come out in time for the general?
Even if it does, SLAB's rottenburgh rep in Glasgow & West is well known , so probably wouldn't have that much impact.
It should remind you of the danger of one party rule for too long.
And the juxtaposition of Corbyn's tweet about Venezuela with the latest reports from there will be going on my Facebook page on June 7th just in case there's anyone left thinking of voting Labour
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
True - though SLAB outperformed expectations more than the Tories.Few expected them to poll 21/22%.
Looks like they did better than expected mostly in places like Glasgow and Dundee. I think that gives them a very tough ask in the GE - harder than the Tories for picking up a few seats.
2000 Guineas post.Eminent could look big at 12-1 ante-post for The Derby in an hour's time.I'm adding this to my Derby ante-post portfolio of Cracksman at 20-1.
Does anyone think Macron's impending victory might shift the centre-left realignment narrative here?
Evidence A: Labour moderates shut up, huddle down and go down to an utterly crushing election defeat.
Evidence B: Telegenic moderate deserts the major failing party of the left, sets up his own new party and becomes President.
No. Not really. Because it's much much easier to do in France's presidential system, than in Britain's FPTP parliamentary system.
Interestingly though polls now show En Marche will win most seats in next month's parliamentary elections too, even if not quite a majority. In Canada Trudeau took the Liberals from third in 2011 to first by a landslide in 2015. If Corbyn is re elected after Labour's defeat or if McDonnell is elected to succeed him I could see the likes of Umunna and Kendall etc saying enough is enough and forming a new SDP style party with the LDs
Incidentally, (slightly random question) does anyone know what the figures were for the 1979 European elections in Scotland?
I came across figures a while back which said that the Conservatives actually narrowly beat Labour that time -- but it's hard to find corroboration anywhere online, and that's contrary to the narrative that 2016 was the first time since the 50s that the Tories had beaten Labour in ANY Scottish election.
Excellent analytical article. My one caveat would be the SW London seats - I suspect Zac will be back [ unfortunately] and am not convinced even on Twickenham. they will need to get and maintain considerable momentum and I'd expect a fierce fightback from the Tories. Time of course will tell.
Does anyone know the % vote shares yesterday for Scotland?
First preferences have been estimated as SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.
So The Ruth Davidson party barely better than SLab, and a significantly worse vote share than Corbyn Labour in England.
'Only one winner'
The SNP also did worse in Scotland than May's Tories did UK wide
Of course it's preferable to (more or less) have peace in Northern Ireland but to imply people have forgotten what atrocities they committed is nonsense.
I have someone who works in my team whose father was in the Army, and growing up in Germany they had to check under their car every single time they used it. Evil scumbags who murdered innocents.
Not forgotten. Sorry.
And the juxtaposition of Corbyn's tweet about Venezuela with the latest reports from there will be going on my Facebook page on June 7th just in case there's anyone left thinking of voting Labour
my dad was a policeman in NI
he checked under his car every day for about 25 years
always gave a sharper twist to turning the ignition
I remember my first security briefing before posting - to check: under the car; for cigarette packs by the wheels; changed hub caps; and fingerprints on the hood. Good excuse for a dirty car - harder to tamper with it without leaving visible evidence.
And in the office for mail: do you recognize the address, is its weight unbalanced, any smell of almonds, any small perforations in the outer envelope, any evidence of wires. Plus, of course, the blast curtains everywhere.
True but Stalin still killed even more than Hitler did
I think we all need to move on, frankly - the electorate has (and so in my limited experience have most Russians). I used to be a (Euro)Communist and told my voters about it back in 2000 or thereabouts. Nobody complained - the reaction was exactly was as if I'd said I used to be a Mormon, mildly interesting, worth a raised eyebrow, but no longer relevant. I was re-elected with good majorities in both following elections. 17 years later, I don't think it matters to anyone much in Britain what we think of people's actions 70 years ago. My mum was an ex-Russian who came to Brkitain in the 30s, voted Tory but quite liked Stalin for (eventually) standing up to Hitler - that's historically interesting family history to me, but she died 18 years ago and it's very much yesterday's argument.
In the same way, almost nobody hates the Argentinians over the Falklands, and not many people still feel strongly about the IRA either (I know Southam disagrees!) - a deal's been done, the past is the past. It's possible to get too caught up in this stuff, and voters just switch off.
You have spent too long talking to the likes of Corbyn McDonnell and Milne. Of course people remember the IRA, whom your pals love and cosied up to.
Excellent analytical article. My one caveat would be the SW London seats - I suspect Zac will be back [ unfortunately] and am not convinced even on Twickenham. they will need to get and maintain considerable momentum and I'd expect a fierce fightback from the Tories. Time of course will tell.
Does anyone know the % vote shares yesterday for Scotland?
First preferences have been estimated as SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.
So The Ruth Davidson party barely better than SLab, and a significantly worse vote share than Corbyn Labour in England.
'Only one winner'
The SNP also did worse in Scotland than May's Tories did UK wide
And Tessy managed an 11 point gap over the electoral juggernaut that is Corbyn Labour. How did the SNP get on against the Greatest Thing Since Sliced Bread, Only One Winner party?
Was it that bad for Labour? Sky was saying that if you extrapolate from vote share the Tories would get a Commons majority of about 40, which isn't much more than Dave achieved. So entirely manageable from Labour's perspective. Perhaps Labours should relax.
True but Stalin still killed even more than Hitler did
I think we all need to move on, frankly - the electorate has (and so in my limited experience have most Russians). I used to be a (Euro)Communist and told my voters about it back in 2000 or thereabouts. Nobody complained - the reaction was exactly was as if I'd said I used to be a Mormon, mildly interesting, worth a raised eyebrow, but no longer relevant. I was re-elected with good majorities in both following elections. 17 years later, I don't think it matters to anyone much in Britain what we think of people's actions 70 years ago. My mum was an ex-Russian who came to Brkitain in the 30s, voted Tory but quite liked Stalin for (eventually) standing up to Hitler - that's historically interesting family history to me, but she died 18 years ago and it's very much yesterday's argument.
In the same way, almost nobody hates the Argentinians over the Falklands, and not many people still feel strongly about the IRA either (I know Southam disagrees!) - a deal's been done, the past is the past. It's possible to get too caught up in this stuff, and voters just switch off.
You have spent too long talking to the likes of Corbyn McDonnell and Milne. Of course people remember the IRA, whom your pals love and cosied up to.
Not quite the IRA, but the following story has emerged today:
"Seamus Ruddy: Human remains found in search of French forest"
Comments
Imagine Hammond being a self-confessed National Socialist who claimed Hitler and Goebbels as his political heroes.
The double standard is grotesque.
Evidence A: Labour moderates shut up, huddle down and go down to an utterly crushing election defeat.
Evidence B: Telegenic moderate deserts the major failing party of the left, sets up his own new party and becomes President.
'Look at Venezuela. TODAY. Dozens are dying, army vehicles are literally driving over the people.'
But Venezuela is McDonnell's economic model for the UK,if you thought Abbott talking about Police numbers was crazy you ain't heard nothing yet.
2) Voting doesn't happen as a block deal. It's millions of people making up their own minds by whatever criteria they pick on, whilst only knowing how a few other people feel about it. At the moment, more of them are 'buying' the Conservatives' offer than are 'buying' Labour's or the Lib Dems.
I'm a left-leaning voter, and even I can see that for years, a large part of Labour's strategy has been rubbishing the Conservatives. Labour beat the Conservatives out of Scotland by rubbishing them, then the SNP came along offering more of that at a better price, and look what happened.
You really are simply re-phrasing the problem that opposition parties are having at the moment in terms that put the onus on the voters to see sense.
Try making the voters a better offer - one they'll be more inclined to buy.
If they can get rid of Corbyn they may recover relatively rapidly, but if not, the choice is either form a new party (Labour less the lunatic) or leave the door open for the Lib Dems or another new party to surpass Labour as the alternative to the Conservatives.
The country really does need an opposition, and Corbyn's thoroughly incapable of providing it.
'Does anyone think Macron's impending victory might shift the centre-left realignment narrative here?'
Evidence A: Labour moderates shut up, huddle down and go down to an utterly crushing election defeat.
Evidence B: Telegenic moderate deserts the major failing party of the left, sets up his own new party and becomes President.'
No, we have already gone down this route with the SDP & done the Blair experience.
I am sure Lynton crosby can assist with this.
Individual Labour MPs could say, "If, after the election, the Liberal Democrats are in a position to form a government, I would back Tim Farron in a confidence motion." Then after the election, those who are returned to parliament could defect en masse and make the Lib Dems the official opposition, claiming that their previous position provided enough legitimacy for the move.
Actually on a blue table !!
The SDP nearly succeeded in displacing Labour and only collapsed once Kinnock took over Labour and fought to expel Militant (though he left people like Corbyn). Only once Labour changed into the SDP themselves did Labour recover and ultimately win under Blair.
Had Foot been replaced by eg Benn instead of Kinnock then its entirely possible that by 1987 the SDP would have replacd Labour as the official opposition and ultimately formed the next government after the Tories.
She's not only stupid, she is openly dishonest
Anyway, time for me to be off.
I think there's probably enough for Private Eye to run a few Glasgow/SLAB rottenburgh special editions !!
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/860634301708292097
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/03/exclusive-john-mcdonnell-named-lenin-and-trotsky-his-biggest-influences-2006
You can't expect coherence from an imbecile.
But getting a hearing is difficult at present - partly the dominance of Brexit as an issue, partly really is the media, partly that people have switched off on both Labour and LibDems so even when our policies do appeal they aren't especially linking them to us. That's where I'm afraid having a charismatic leader like Blair does help, though my austere side feels it shouldn't be necessary, and it's why Corbyn's best shot, as Simon Jenkins says, is to be himself and let rip, rather than cautiously nose around trying not to make mistakes.
That's why the Abbott piece was so damaging - it played right into the concerns most people have about Labour.
Looks like an SNP/Green deal to me.
About as bright as a 2W bulb on a sunny day...!
Just as the Tories are cannibalizing the UKIP vote, the evidence yesterday is that Labour are swallowing the Green vote. The 7% Green vote from 2015 is just enough to put Lab over the top in Leeds NW, all other things being equal...
'Only one winner'
If unionists really do club together and get behind whichever party did best against the SNP yesterday, then the SNP could lose a surprising number of seats. On the other hand, will SLAB voters' "unionism" really trump their loathing of the Tories in Moray, Perthshire, Stirling, etc.? And will SCON voters' "unionism" trump their disdain for Corbyn Labour in East Lothian, Glasgow and bits of Edinburgh? Dunno.
Of course it's preferable to (more or less) have peace in Northern Ireland but to imply people have forgotten what atrocities they committed is nonsense.
I have someone who works in my team whose father was in the Army, and growing up in Germany they had to check under their car every single time they used it. Evil scumbags who murdered innocents.
Not forgotten. Sorry.
And the juxtaposition of Corbyn's tweet about Venezuela with the latest reports from there will be going on my Facebook page on June 7th just in case there's anyone left thinking of voting Labour
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/03/30/looking-forward-to-the-county-council-elections-2017/
Made on this basis:
' I have had a look at the local by-elections held in county wards since the referendum and worked on the assumption that dependent on how that county voted at the referendum, the local by-elections will be indicative of the final result '
Now the 15 counties which had boundary changes didn't get a councillor prediction but for the others HH predicted:
Con 646
Lab 208
LibD 317
The actual results were:
Con 793
Lab 241
LibD 162
A difference of:
Con +147
Lab +33
LibD -155
In every single prediction the LibDems were too high.
As a predictive tool local by-elections are shite, as a method for ramping LibDem chances they're great.
he checked under his car every day for about 25 years
always gave a sharper twist to turning the ignition
Both parties have very strong motives to make electoral gains, SLab for survival and SCons to become THE Unionist opposition party. It'll largely be down to the voters to get their tactical mojo on I think.
SLAB's surprisingly strong showing in the Council Elections, may make many SCON tactical voters think twice about supporting SLAB as this could result in them possibly beating SCON in the % of votes !!
Seamus Milne with affection for all kinds of dodgy regimes should probably be foreign secretary.
Chris Huhne or Keith Vaz should be given a peerage and made home secretary.
John McIRA - Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, with special responsibility for the security services.
Gordon Brown, the man who led us into the most catastrophic bust in our history, should be Chancellor.
If he's not willing, given her recent numbers gaffe, Dianne Abbott would have to be Chancellor, or at least Secretary of State for Education.
Damien McBride - minister for standards in public life.
Tony Blair - Middle East Peace Envoy.
Oh, and Jeremy Corbyn - Prime Minister.
I came across figures a while back which said that the Conservatives actually narrowly beat Labour that time -- but it's hard to find corroboration anywhere online, and that's contrary to the narrative that 2016 was the first time since the 50s that the Tories had beaten Labour in ANY Scottish election.
And in the office for mail: do you recognize the address, is its weight unbalanced, any smell of almonds, any small perforations in the outer envelope, any evidence of wires. Plus, of course, the blast curtains everywhere.
https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/05/sun-right-royal-mess-after-reporting-death/
"Seamus Ruddy: Human remains found in search of French forest"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-39828895
Corbyn - 'We have five weeks to ruin their party'
I presume he's talking about Labour...