Is the following a plausible scenario: Labour MPs know that many of them are doomed and have nothing to lose. They are waiting until deadline for nominations have closed and they are officially confirmed as (sole) Labour candidates. They (the 170+ who oppose Corbyn) will then call a press conference and declare that post election they will conduct an election amongst themselves and support a new leader in the House of Commons. Corbyn will never be PM because he will not be able to win a vote of confidence. They will gamble that the Labour Party will back them and if not they will UDI a new party. They will also gamble that they can take enough of their constituency parties with them to fight a viable campaign.
The battle will take place after the election. And it will be a fierce one. The far left know that if Corbyn loses the leadership contest that follows his refusal to resign they will be locked out of ever getting close to the top ever again. Moderates know that if they lose out, the game is up for them and they will have to leave.
On the plus side, if he does refuse to resign and there is a contest, it should be far less of a mealy mouthed affair - I'd think given there's the danger of a mass split should the membership back Corbyn in such a situation, the attacks will be brutal and unpolitic.
The Libdems had great expectations of a revival in Cornwall. Some of the results show how unreal that was. Mevagissey, for instance, is usually a very tight contest with the victor often getting elected with around 30% of the vote. Labour won in 2013 and the Conservatives narrowly won in a by-election in 2014. Teresa May visited on the Tuesday before the poll - remember the chips. This time the Tory got over 70% of the vote.
I think historically the Lib Dems have done well when the Tories are weak. Their glory days were under Blair when the Tories were getting the kind of pasting that Labour now looks set for.
In Scotland it was the former Tory shire seats that formed the backbone of their strength and indeed the starting point for the SNP surge which is obviously another complication for them in seeking to recover.
When the Tories are rampant then life gets tough for Lib Dems who always seem more attractive to disaffected moderates than lefties. What we saw on Thursday is the Lib Dem vote going up but the Tory vote going up more on the back of the UKIP collapse. It is quite hard to see the GE being that different and I expect them to recover no more than a small handful of the seats they lost to Cameron with real possibilities of losses the other way.
The Lib Dems will recover when the Tories start to falter. Until then they need to just hang in there and hope. 10-15 is a narrow range and for me the risk is more on the downside than the up.
Lib Dems need to win over the middle class bourgeoisie champagne socialists. The type that pretends to fight for the working class, but mainly looks down on them most of the time as being racists.
If one held an enquiry into who was responsible for the death of the Labour Party the first people to be exonerated would be their sitting MPs.
They knew within six months that Jeremy Corbyn and his clique were going to bring electoral disaster and they knew they had but one chance to reverse what would be an electoral mauling. They had to pass a vote of no confidence and resign en masse.
However thanks to the new procedure for electing leaders which had been introduced by Ed Miliband it meant that in the event of the leader being a sociopath the vote of three quarters of the MPs could be ignored and in this case that's what happened.
1900-2017.
The Labour Party
R.I.P
'You Gave Us The NHS'
It's going nowhere, Roger. No one is replacing them, therefore they will rise again. We'll see how long it takes.
I don't think so. I think there's more chance of the Tories splitting and a new centre party forming. Labour are dead because like typewriters they serve no unique function anymore.
Is the following a plausible scenario: Labour MPs know that many of them are doomed and have nothing to lose. They are waiting until deadline for nominations have closed and they are officially confirmed as (sole) Labour candidates. They (the 170+ who oppose Corbyn) will then call a press conference and declare that post election they will conduct an election amongst themselves and support a new leader in the House of Commons. Corbyn will never be PM because he will not be able to win a vote of confidence. They will gamble that the Labour Party will back them and if not they will UDI a new party. They will also gamble that they can take enough of their constituency parties with them to fight a viable campaign.
The battle will take place after the election. And it will be a fierce one. The far left know that if Corbyn loses the leadership contest that follows his refusal to resign they will be locked out of ever getting close to the top ever again. Moderates know that if they lose out, the game is up for them and they will have to leave.
On the plus side, if he does refuse to resign and there is a contest, it should be far less of a mealy mouthed affair - I'd think given there's the danger of a mass split should the membership back Corbyn in such a situation, the attacks will be brutal and unpolitic.
More than a few post-declaration speeches from defeated Labour candidates will not simply be about thanking the Police and the Returning Officer.
"In medicine, the natural order is generally diagnosis, treatment and then a prognosis. The Labour party haven't agreed on the first yet.
The diagnosis is an inoperable tumour - one Jeremy Corbyn. There may be other minor ailments but they are irrelevant to life expectancy. However, the labour Party members are in denial still. It's the fault of the media, the Blairites, the idiot electors. Change them and all is well.
Jezza will go nowhere until the members reach the correct diagnosis or the patient dies. Prognosis - not good."
Good article from A.Meeks, but he may be a tad optimistic. He's right about potential targets for the LDs, but it will a good GE2015 for the LDs if they win more than 12 seats.
I knew there was a solution to this mess! Time travel.
But why stop at 2015? If we went back to 1994, made Gordon Brown stand and watched him come a humiliating last behind Margaret Beckett then he would have been sacked and things would have been much easier all around.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
I've heard that before.....2010......looks like the winner will be in power at least a decade later, and quite possibly longer.
Simply repeating 'the voters will blame the government' doesn't make it true - especially when its contradicted by polling - even Remain voters think the EU will not offer us a good deal.
I think historically the Lib Dems have done well when the Tories are weak. Their glory days were under Blair when the Tories were getting the kind of pasting that Labour now looks set for.
In Scotland it was the former Tory shire seats that formed the backbone of their strength and indeed the starting point for the SNP surge which is obviously another complication for them in seeking to recover.
When the Tories are rampant then life gets tough for Lib Dems who always seem more attractive to disaffected moderates than lefties. What we saw on Thursday is the Lib Dem vote going up but the Tory vote going up more on the back of the UKIP collapse. It is quite hard to see the GE being that different and I expect them to recover no more than a small handful of the seats they lost to Cameron with real possibilities of losses the other way.
The Lib Dems will recover when the Tories start to falter. Until then they need to just hang in there and hope. 10-15 is a narrow range and for me the risk is more on the downside than the up.
I think that's right. The Liberal constituency has always focused upon 'soft' Tory voters, and when the Tories are unpopular there are still millions who will never vote Labour. When Labour is unpopular there are too few seats to win and too many voters switch straight to the Tories. The challenge the LibDems have is surviving in the harsh environment of FPTnP in order to be able to take advantage when the inevitable backlash comes. Meanwhile they would be sensible to refocus resources away from trying to make shire gains from the Conservatives and towards the handful of urban seats that look vulnerable for Labour - most of Britain's big cities have at least one seat where the LibDems are potentially in contention.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
I think historically the Lib Dems have done well when the Tories are weak. Their glory days were under Blair when the Tories were getting the kind of pasting that Labour now looks set for.
In Scotland it was the former Tory shire seats that formed the backbone of their strength and indeed the starting point for the SNP surge which is obviously another complication for them in seeking to recover.
When the Tories are rampant then life gets tough for Lib Dems who always seem more attractive to disaffected moderates than lefties. What we saw on Thursday is the Lib Dem vote going up but the Tory vote going up more on the back of the UKIP collapse. It is quite hard to see the GE being that different and I expect them to recover no more than a small handful of the seats they lost to Cameron with real possibilities of losses the other way.
The Lib Dems will recover when the Tories start to falter. Until then they need to just hang in there and hope. 10-15 is a narrow range and for me the risk is more on the downside than the up.
Lib Dems need to win over the middle class bourgeoisie champagne socialists. The type that pretends to fight for the working class, but mainly looks down on them most of the time as being racists.
If they do that, then Labour is finished.
Rather than the Tory approach of caring so much about the working class when it comes to immigration, then cutting their benefits?
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
Commiserations to the Scottish Notional Party on losing 7 seats. Congrats to the Scottish National Party on gaining 6 seats.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
SLab like complacency. Your nasty divisive crew are in for a savage culling in June.
Following the LibDem’s tuition fees fiasco, their nation recognised that they had been sold a pup and I suspect Farron’s policy on Europe is being greeted with equal suspicion.
He offering something that appears to be legally impossible and it appears to 100% unlikely that he will ever be empowered to produce what he is offering.
Some will undoubtedly support the LibDems as a protest vote but with all of the incoming flak from Junker et al, the electorate at large seem to be adopting a WWII mentality, which will act to counter this.
There is also the problem of Farron himself. In addition to his religiosity and views on gay sex, there is the matter of his regional accent. This won’t necessarily be noticed in his constituency, but I suspect that southern ears may not associate it with leadership.
Mrs May has a southern accent to the rest GB and it doesn't appear to have harmed her one jot.
People are prejudiced toward other regional accents?
Though I cannot say I've found Farron's offputting, as a southerner, while admitting accent privilege is a thing. A lot of people would do a double take if they were going into brain surgery and the surgeon had a thick cockney or Liverpudlian accent.
Jacob Rees Mogg once unsuccessfully stood for election in Fife. He later said that "I gradually realised that whatever I happened to be speaking about, the number of voters in my favour dropped as soon as I opened my mouth."
That could very easily relate to the content as well as the articulation.
True, but I read about the tale in the context of hostility towards received pronunciation.
@DPJHodges: First he publicly praises Corbyn for helping him win votes. Then he does a runner, and briefs against him. Classic Andy Burnham.
I'm not a Burnham fan, and didn't think at the time he was a good candidate for leader, but the saga of the Manchester mayoralty illustrates why he's a more capable politician than I gave him credit for, and probably would've been a better choice not just than Corbyn (obv) but also the rest.
He was extravagantly loyal in public to Corbyn on first election (without getting involved in McDonnell's Praetorian Guard which might involve beating up colleagues who might help him). He steered clear of the coup (either as plotter or defender). He swept to the nomination without a Corbynista challenge. And he won the election very, very handsomely (always likely but it really was a notably overwhelming win in awful circumstances). Now he's got what he wants, he wants absolutely nothing to do with Corbyn, and stabs him in the back by simply failing to share a stage with him. Corbyn is yesterday's man today for Burnham - he'll be seen as a reviled mistake the next time Burnham needs the Labour Party, so why do him favours?
Is that nice? No. Is it realpolitik? Yes. I can name another politician in recent times who was notably loyal to her boss, short of actually lifting a finger to help him as he pursued his biggest policy error. Then, the moment the boss was yesterday's man, she stole the clothes of the people who had brought her boss down while they were looking elsewhere, bundled the boss out of the door, and settled old scores with his allies. Brutal but effective.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
Commiserations to the Scottish Notional Party on losing 7 seats. Congrats to the Scottish National Party on gaining 6 seats.
I'm pretty sure using notional values is the way these are always reported.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
SLab like complacency. Your nasty divisive crew are in for a savage culling in June.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
Rob, more seats and higher vote share , Tories being best of the losers is not a victory as some people try to make out. A very distant second means lost big time.
I think historically the Lib Dems have done well when the Tories are weak. Their glory days were under Blair when the Tories were getting the kind of pasting that Labour now looks set for.
In Scotland it was the former Tory shire seats that formed the backbone of their strength and indeed the starting point for the SNP surge which is obviously another complication for them in seeking to recover.
When the Tories are rampant then life gets tough for Lib Dems who always seem more attractive to disaffected moderates than lefties. What we saw on Thursday is the Lib Dem vote going up but the Tory vote going up more on the back of the UKIP collapse. It is quite hard to see the GE being that different and I expect them to recover no more than a small handful of the seats they lost to Cameron with real possibilities of losses the other way.
The Lib Dems will recover when the Tories start to falter. Until then they need to just hang in there and hope. 10-15 is a narrow range and for me the risk is more on the downside than the up.
Lib Dems need to win over the middle class bourgeoisie champagne socialists. The type that pretends to fight for the working class, but mainly looks down on them most of the time as being racists.
If they do that, then Labour is finished.
Rather than the Tory approach of caring so much about the working class when it comes to immigration, then cutting their benefits?
Odd as it seems Tories don't condescend to the working class as often as Labour does. Working class knows where they stand with the Tories and where the Tories stand on issues - they can't say the same about Labour.
There is a reason why the working class are leaving Labour in their droves you know.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
Rob, more seats and higher vote share , Tories being best of the losers is not a victory as some people try to make out. A very distant second means lost big time.
I wonder if you would be saying the same if it was the SNP that more than doubled their number of councillors when they were behind Labour.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
People said the same thing about 2010 re austerity. Brexit is more of a potential pitfall, making recovery even from a low position easier than might be thought should events help, but there's losing an election and then losing an election
As usual, when you're not writing about you know what.......
It is a useful look at some of the seat and band markets, and I am pretty bearish on LD prospects under FPTP. There will however be a lot of strong second places, particularly across Shire and suburban England. In these places Corbynism has no credibility. Rebuilding the party was never going to be a quick job.
I think @AlastairMeeks does put a bit too much emphasis on Brexit though. There are a lot of other issues on the national political agenda. Heathrow expansion in West London, May's strange obsession with grammar schools, STP related hospital closures, air polution, public transport, the appalling state of Britain's mental health care. Brexit matters, but is not the only thing that matters.
So, despite being a Leave voting area, I think Lamb will be safe in North Norfolk for example. LDs gained two seats Councillors in his constituency yesterday. All politics is local.
I've a few quid on LibDems comeback in Eastleigh, my neighbouring constituency (at 5/1).
Keith House @CllrKeithHouse Lib Dems win all seven County seats in Eastleigh constituency #Mike4Eastleigh #Lib Dems on the up! 2:18 AM - 5 May 2017 · Eastleigh, England
Yes, I think Eastleigh is a reasonable prospect. 5/1 is not bad considering the strong council presence. The high kipper vote here was in part due to the byelection.
Tory surge? You're pulling my leg, aren't you Malc?
Read the article. The point is that fourth place and transfers from other parties enabled the Tories to achieve 25% representation in a multi-member seat. Look at the progress of the count and you will see the Tory was lucky to make it through, largely on the back of transfer preferences from the non-nationalist electorate for anyone but the SNP.
The resulting slate of councillors reflects the balance of opinion in that community far more effectively than the absurd set of mostly one-party states that passes for democracy in the rest of our country's local government. It's a mature result and in England we should be ashamed that our politics is so primitive.
Tory surge? You're pulling my leg, aren't you Malc?
Read the article. The point is that fourth place and transfers from other parties enabled the Tories to achieve 25% representation in a multi-member seat. Look at the progress of the count and you will see the Tory was lucky to make it through, largely on the back of transfer preferences from the non-nationalist electorate for anyone but the SNP.
The resulting slate of councillors reflects the balance of opinion in that community far more effectively than the absurd set of mostly one-party states that passes for democracy in the rest of our country's local government. It's a mature result and in England we should be ashamed that our politics is so primitive.
Conclusion however : Of course, the complicated council voting system does flatter the Tories somewhat.
They may be on the march but in a head-to-head contest in a general election, they won’t get quite the same result. And it should be remembered that the SNP were the clear winners in yesterday’s council election.
The nationalists won the most votes, the most seats and were the biggest party in the most councils.
Well, this election has been a useful rehearsal for the Zoomers.
In five weeks they will be ready to explain how losing vote share and seats is a massive victory for Nicola...
Well, still being first by a long distance in five weeks is still success, even if they've gone backwards. It would be nice if they can acknowledge that others moving forward is also still relative success, even if it is not as much as they hope. It's just plain churlish to act like someone massively increasing representation is not success, yes, even if it is from a low base and still not as good as someone else.
Well, this election has been a useful rehearsal for the Zoomers.
In five weeks they will be ready to explain how losing vote share and seats is a massive victory for Nicola...
Well, still being first by a long distance in five weeks is still success, even if they've gone backwards. It would be nice if they can acknowledge that others moving forward is also still relative success, even if it is not as much as they hope.
I guarantee you their tune would have been different if it was the SNP that had more than doubled their number of councillors to ~270 with Labour flatlining on 430.
It's just plain churlish to act like someone massively increasing representation is not success, yes, even if it is from a low base and still not as good as someone else.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
Commiserations to the Scottish Notional Party on losing 7 seats. Congrats to the Scottish National Party on gaining 6 seats.
I'm pretty sure using notional values is the way these are always reported.
Notional as in made up lies, even Scott would struggle to make +6 into -7.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
People said the same thing about 2010 re austerity. Brexit is more of a potential pitfall, making recovery even from a low position easier than might be thought should events help, but there's losing an election and then losing an election
Is the use of retreads such as St Vince and Simon H sensible? High profile so will get above average media attention but associated with all the reasons voters fell out of love with them. A drag on renewal and regeneration and fresh appeal.
Eminently sensible, Mr H. The PB Tories go on at great length about "incumbency bonus", but without really understanding what it is and why it works. The Lib Dem former MPs still have it - the spanking new Tory MPs do not. It comes from a long history of service to the community, of helping local people, of interacting with them.
It is interesting to see on Facebook and elsewhere how many people regret the loss of their good Lib Dem MP, and their disappointment with the Tory replacement.
The fact is that these new Tory MPs are just part of the Tory machine vote in Parliament, and do not stand up for local people and local interests.
Well, this election has been a useful rehearsal for the Zoomers.
In five weeks they will be ready to explain how losing vote share and seats is a massive victory for Nicola...
Well, still being first by a long distance in five weeks is still success, even if they've gone backwards. It would be nice if they can acknowledge that others moving forward is also still relative success, even if it is not as much as they hope.
I guarantee you their tune would have been different if it was the SNP that had more than doubled their number of councillors to ~270 with Labour flatlining on 430.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
Commiserations to the Scottish Notional Party on losing 7 seats. Congrats to the Scottish National Party on gaining 6 seats.
I'm pretty sure using notional values is the way these are always reported.
Notional as in made up lies, even Scott would struggle to make +6 into -7.
LOL. Seriously? Notional results are used all the time, in council and parliamentary elections.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
Rob, more seats and higher vote share , Tories being best of the losers is not a victory as some people try to make out. A very distant second means lost big time.
I wonder if you would be saying the same if it was the SNP that more than doubled their number of councillors when they were behind Labour.
Double of very little , whilst good, still does not cut the mustard. They are just meeting labour as Labour circle the drain.
Well, this election has been a useful rehearsal for the Zoomers.
In five weeks they will be ready to explain how losing vote share and seats is a massive victory for Nicola...
Well, still being first by a long distance in five weeks is still success, even if they've gone backwards. It would be nice if they can acknowledge that others moving forward is also still relative success, even if it is not as much as they hope.
I guarantee you their tune would have been different if it was the SNP that had more than doubled their number of councillors to ~270 with Labour flatlining on 430.
It's just plain churlish to act like someone massively increasing representation is not success, yes, even if it is from a low base and still not as good as someone else.
A large part of the rationale behind this election is to render the House of Lords largely powerless. The Salisbury-Addison Convention robs their lordships of the power to veto any measure promised in the election manifesto of the governing party.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
Commiserations to the Scottish Notional Party on losing 7 seats. Congrats to the Scottish National Party on gaining 6 seats.
I'm pretty sure using notional values is the way these are always reported.
Notional as in made up lies, even Scott would struggle to make +6 into -7.
But isn't it normal for elections to be reported in terms of notional holds, gains and losses? It isn't a case of Tory rampers, even if they are the ones saying it, I am sure I've seen all manner of elections reported that way.
Is the use of retreads such as St Vince and Simon H sensible? High profile so will get above average media attention but associated with all the reasons voters fell out of love with them. A drag on renewal and regeneration and fresh appeal.
Eminently sensible, Mr H. The PB Tories go on at great length about "incumbency bonus", but without really understanding what it is and why it works. The Lib Dem former MPs still have it - the spanking new Tory MPs do not. It comes from a long history of service to the community, of helping local people, of interacting with them.
It is interesting to see on Facebook and elsewhere how many people regret the loss of their good Lib Dem MP, and their disappointment with the Tory replacement.
The fact is that these new Tory MPs are just part of the Tory machine vote in Parliament, and do not stand up for local people and local interests.
I think long-term the most significant benefit for the LDs will be (even if they do end up with only a dozen or so MPs) to have big-hitters such as Hughes and Cable making their presence felt in the media.
Not particularly off topic in any discussion about Corbyn?
@jeremycorbynThanks Hugo Chavez for showing that the poor matter and wealth can be shared. He made massive contributions to Venezuela & a very wide world
I wish there'd been a market on the Saturday piece being an in-depth discussion about the Lib Dem performance at the local election. The very definition of a certainty.
As a card-carrying LD, it's obviously disappointing to see net losses when some were predicting net gains but this election has a main truth and a series of interesting truths just below the surface.
So, a tale of two Surrey Divisions - Sunbury Common in Spelthorne and Godalming North in Waverley, the former a LD loss to the Conservatives, the latter a LD gain from the Conservatives.
Sunbury Common in 2013 voted:
LD 40% UKIP 25%, CON 21%, LAB 14%
In 2017:
LD 33% UKIP 8%, CON 44%, LAB 13%
Spelthorne voted LEAVE and even though the local LD County Councillor had served 16 years, the UKIP collapse and anti-REMAIN sentiment swept him away.
Godalming North in 2013:
CON 44%, LD 21%, UKIP 19%, LAB 16%
In 2017:
CON 40% LD 46%, UKIP 6%
Progressive alliance in REMAIN areas anyone ? The benficiaries of the UKIP collapse weren't the Conservatives or perhaps even the LDs.
Food for thought and a lesson that sometimes sweeping generalisations mask what's really going on.
"In medicine, the natural order is generally diagnosis, treatment and then a prognosis. The Labour party haven't agreed on the first yet.
The diagnosis is an inoperable tumour - one Jeremy Corbyn. There may be other minor ailments but they are irrelevant to life expectancy. However, the labour Party members are in denial still. It's the fault of the media, the Blairites, the idiot electors. Change them and all is well.
Jezza will go nowhere until the members reach the correct diagnosis or the patient dies. Prognosis - not good."
I don't believe you can be a little bit dead. There are going to be about 150 Labour MPs walking round the commons like Mancunions on Spice. A third will be Corbynites who will have less in common with the other two thirds than with the Tories.
And they'll be very angry.
I can't see any scenario where the party doesn't collapse and split.
That's misleading. The NHS was built on the basis of cottage hospitals, which were introduced by the Conservatives, and the Conservatives would probably have introduced something similar had they won the 1945 election. The 1944 Health White Paper leaves little doubt about that. The NHS was an idea whose time had come.
Also, we probably couldn't have afforded it without the American loan. So direct your thanks to the Americans and the Conservatives as much as to Labour.
When the Labour Party inevitably start their reconstruction, I hope that progress will not be delayed by Tony Blair sticking his nose in.
He seems to think that he still has some influence to get the results that he wants, but he will just be a handicap to whatever faction that he declares to support.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
People said the same thing about 2010 re austerity. Brexit is more of a potential pitfall, making recovery even from a low position easier than might be thought should events help, but there's losing an election and then losing an election
A more detailed analysis of LD results in places like Somerset, Surrey and Cornwall reveal a patchwork quilt of gains and losses. A net loss of two might disguise five gains and seven defeats.
It seems we have at least two (and perhaps more) competing political societies at work. In more strongly pro-LEAVE areas, the UKIP collapse (the one common factor) is directly benefiting the Conservatives but in addition there has been a move away from the more pro-REMAIN parties in these areas (Labour support seems less affected by this).
In the REMAIN areas, the politics and voting are different - the UKIP collapse hasn't always translated into support for the Conservatives and indeed that support is coming under some pressure as the anti-Conservative vote seems more able and willing to coalesce around a pro-REMAIN candidate. There seems room for a limited tactical "progressive alliance" in some areas.
The Conservatives hugely benefit from the former area being greater than the latter. It may be this divergence will ease as the UKIP vote is washed away with time (next year will presumably see the eradication of most of the remaining District/Borough Councillors).
To paraphrase Marc Antony, I come to praise UKIP, not to bury it. It's rare a political party or movement achieves its objective - those whose philosophies are couched in more abstract terms can be assured of a reasonably continuing existence and perhaps one day the SNP or PC will achieve their stated aim. UKIP have - kudos to them and they can thank their most effective supporter and helper - David Cameron.
Well, this election has been a useful rehearsal for the Zoomers.
In five weeks they will be ready to explain how losing vote share and seats is a massive victory for Nicola...
Well, still being first by a long distance in five weeks is still success, even if they've gone backwards. It would be nice if they can acknowledge that others moving forward is also still relative success, even if it is not as much as they hope.
I guarantee you their tune would have been different if it was the SNP that had more than doubled their number of councillors to ~270 with Labour flatlining on 430.
It's just plain churlish to act like someone massively increasing representation is not success, yes, even if it is from a low base and still not as good as someone else.
Quite. It's a bit like the fact that Plaid Cymru, for example, is still a country mile behind Labour, but their total of councillors increased and is now at near-record levels. They still had a good night regardless.
As for the Scottish results, the roughly as-you-were total for the SNP masks changing patterns of voting: in summary, they're advancing in parts of the old Labour heartland and going backwards in many stronger No voting areas. They did extremely well in both Glasgow and Dundee, but lost their previous majority in the latter. They are only one seat ahead of the Tories in Edinburgh, have been replaced by the Conservatives as the single largest party in Aberdeenshire and in Perth & Kinross, and have had a mixed bag of gains and losses elsewhere.
They've done very well, have clearly won this election, and are going to retain the large majority of their Westminster seats at a canter. This doesn't mean that, if they ship five or ten seats next month to some of their opponents, that the opponents have achieved nothing at all. That's both a complacent attitude, and one which writes off all the voters that supported them before, and have chosen to reject them since. An especially dangerous attitude for supporters of a party that is going to need, one day, to be able to convince an absolute majority of voters to back its core aim, if that aim is ever to be achieved.
A more detailed analysis of LD results in places like Somerset, Surrey and Cornwall reveal a patchwork quilt of gains and losses. A net loss of two might disguise five gains and seven defeats.
Oh if only someone had collated all this information into one place... https://goo.gl/uzcozl
That's misleading. The NHS was built on the basis of cottage hospitals, which were introduced by the Conservatives, and the Conservatives would probably have introduced something similar had they won the 1945 election. The 1944 Health White Paper leaves little doubt about that. The NHS was an idea whose time had come.
Also, we probably couldn't have afforded it without the American loan. So direct your thanks to the Americans and the Conservatives as much as to Labour.
You certainly believe in kicking a man when he's down.......
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
Commiserations to the Scottish Notional Party on losing 7 seats. Congrats to the Scottish National Party on gaining 6 seats.
I'm pretty sure using notional values is the way these are always reported.
Notional as in made up lies, even Scott would struggle to make +6 into -7.
But isn't it normal for elections to be reported in terms of notional holds, gains and losses? It isn't a case of Tory rampers, even if they are the ones saying it, I am sure I've seen all manner of elections reported that way.
You mean bollox, how can you lose 7 seats you never held, against the laws of physics I am afraid.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
Commiserations to the Scottish Notional Party on losing 7 seats. Congrats to the Scottish National Party on gaining 6 seats.
I'm pretty sure using notional values is the way these are always reported.
Notional as in made up lies, even Scott would struggle to make +6 into -7.
But isn't it normal for elections to be reported in terms of notional holds, gains and losses? It isn't a case of Tory rampers, even if they are the ones saying it, I am sure I've seen all manner of elections reported that way.
You mean bollox, how can you lose 7 seats you never held, against the laws of physics I am afraid.
Jeez, that's why they are called notional, because they represent what the result would have been had the previous election been contested on the new boundaries.
So that's 30 million people paying an extra penny each = £300,000.
Nowhere near £6bn.
Where did he get his figures? Abbott?
1p in the pound?
Oh 1%. Strange - why didn't he type that instead? The 'p' & '%' keys aren't anywhere near each other.
So say someone earns £30,000. The extra 1% is £300.
And they pay that on top of existing taxes, with the costs of mortgage/rent, food, heat & light, vehicle(s) & fuel, and everything else they need to live.
Then out of the little that remains for themselves, they have to pay another £300 - with no guarantee it will be spent efficiently or wisely.
No wonder the LibDems use "penny in the pound" so it doesn't sound like much.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time , onc epeople realise how deluded they were to actually think Theresa was anything other than useless and Tories anything other than lying toerags.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time , onc epeople realise how deluded they were to actually think Theresa was anything other than useless and Tories anything other than lying toerags.
Good read, Alastair. I pointed out yesterday that these results are awful for the Lib Dems. They should have more alarm bells ringing than Labour at the moment. At least with Labour there is an easy scapegoat who they can get rid of after the election, the core brand and package of Labour is still fairly popular in enough parts of the country for them to make a comeback.
For the Lib Dems, there is no easy way to explain their poor performance. I personally think it is Tim Farron. The guy is a complete muppet. Not a single person I know takes him seriously, whatever one thought of Nick Clegg, he was a fairly serious guy. Farron is just an over promoted council leader who continually looks like a rabbit in headlights. Additionally as Alastair said in the header, their central campaign message is essentially to reverse Brexit and as Aschroft's polling showed they are trying to appeal to people who satisfy not just those who think Brexit was a bad decision (ca. 45% according to YouGov) but the small subset of those who think it was a bad decision and want to see it reversed or frustrated somehow. They are the williamglen party, most Remainers I know and even most on here who think Brexit was the wrong decision are resolved to seeing through now. In asking for that additional step the Lib Dems are limiting themselves to a maximum of 25% of voters, they would need an incredibly high conversion rate of those voters to gain more than 4 or 5 seats and there is also no guarantee that the voters they seek are in the right places. Winning a bunch of votes in Islington or other inner London areas where the antipathy to Brexit is the highest is completely pointless, Labour aren't going to lose anything there.
Overall I think the Lib Dems need a new leader and a new message even more desperately than Labour. This was a once in a generation opportunity for them to consolidate some of the centre left and centre right vote not happy with the direction of their own parties heading out towards the extremes, but they and the leader just aren't credible.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time , onc epeople realise how deluded they were to actually think Theresa was anything other than useless and Tories anything other than lying toerags.
I don't doubt that May and the Tories will wind up despised, such is the fate of governments. The cognitive dissonance of the British public is such that it will not blame themselves.
Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.
Commiserations to the Scottish Notional Party on losing 7 seats. Congrats to the Scottish National Party on gaining 6 seats.
I'm pretty sure using notional values is the way these are always reported.
Notional as in made up lies, even Scott would struggle to make +6 into -7.
But isn't it normal for elections to be reported in terms of notional holds, gains and losses? It isn't a case of Tory rampers, even if they are the ones saying it, I am sure I've seen all manner of elections reported that way.
You mean bollox, how can you lose 7 seats you never held, against the laws of physics I am afraid.
Jeez, that's why they are called notional, because they represent what the result would have been had the previous election been contested on the new boundaries.
LOL, lets make up some seats to kid on we did better than we actually did, what a wheeze.
2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government
No doubt the remainers will be unhappy.
Freggles is 100% correct , when reality hits the pitchforks will be out big time.
Not on this one. People in general and voters in particular are usually very unwilling to accept adverse outcomes are the result of their own decisions.
We will see buyers regret in a few years time
You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
Morning all. Looking at what's coming out of France today, I'd be very nervous indeed (to put it politely) if I was running IT for a major party in any election now. Multi-factor authentication, VPN systems, mobile device management and some serious ex-GCHQ bods to run the firewalls. And in all honesty probably looking seriously at firing up the long forgotten fax machines for the most sensitive communications.
Looking forward, the inevitable juggernaut of the Conservative landslide seems unstoppable and even as the LD and Labour parties lick their wounds after Thursday, they can console themselves with the though there are an awful lot of seats for the Conservatives to defend in 2021 and it's hard to imagine the Prime Minister being as popular then as she is now.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives to retain all or most of these seats would be for May 6th 2021 to be General Election day.
I've not done the detailed analysis but my comment from a few weeks ago about my thoughts for the LD performance seem to have been borne out which splits into four parts:
1) Areas of traditional strength where the Party has done well - places like Eastleigh, Cheltenham, Bath and a few areas seem to have been islands of strength in seas of weakness. Whether there is enough strength to return LD MPs remains to be seen - the problem is the Conservatives will know where these areas are as well and where resources need to be targeted.
2) Areas of traditional strength where the Party hasn't done well - these exist, Cornwall has been disappointing for the most part though that's more a reflection of Conservative strength than LD weakness. In Surrey, as an example, the Lib Dem vote increased by 7% - the Conservative vote rose by 8%. Both benefited from the 17% collapse in UKIP support but that collapse worked differently in LEAVE areas (went straight to the Conservatives) and REMAIN areas (stayed at home).
3) Areas of traditional weakness where the party has done well - it's not well known that 2/3 of the current LD leadership joined after the 2015 GE. The party I knew and joined in 1981 has gone - there is a new party with strength in new areas - not many of these as yet but there may be some results which buck the national trend.
4) The Rest - there are regrettably vast tracts of the country where the party has little or no presence at all. These have always existed but are larger now and it will take a long time for activity to return (if it ever does).
When the inevitable disillusionment with the May Government sets in and the midterm hits, the LDs will, I think, take back their previous role of temporary refuge for the disillusioned and as long as Labour consign themselves to irrelevance, the LDs will prosper as that repository and there will be so many more of those votes available under June 8th. The real challenge will be if and when Labour regains its credibility. As history tells us, a credible Labour alternative after a long period of Conservative rule is almost unstoppable,
So that's 30 million people paying an extra penny each = £300,000.
Nowhere near £6bn.
Where did he get his figures? Abbott?
1p in the pound?
Oh 1%. Strange - why didn't he type that instead? The 'p' & '%' keys aren't anywhere near each other.
So say someone earns £30,000. The extra 1% is £300.
And they pay that on top of existing taxes, with the costs of mortgage/rent, food, heat & light, vehicle(s) & fuel, and everything else they need to live.
Then out of the little that remains for themselves, they have to pay another £300 - with no guarantee it will be spent efficiently or wisely.
No wonder the LibDems use "penny in the pound" so it doesn't sound like much.
It's an annoying but common trick, messing around with the way numbers are presented like that; cf. "Well I think 39p a day is really good value for the licence fee, what with all those fascinating wildlife documentaries and of course Dr Who." It's what you'd expect from an LD barchartist, of course.though.
Comments
What, there already is one?...
If they do that, then Labour is finished.
FPT
"In medicine, the natural order is generally diagnosis, treatment and then a prognosis. The Labour party haven't agreed on the first yet.
The diagnosis is an inoperable tumour - one Jeremy Corbyn. There may be other minor ailments but they are irrelevant to life expectancy. However, the labour Party members are in denial still. It's the fault of the media, the Blairites, the idiot electors. Change them and all is well.
Jezza will go nowhere until the members reach the correct diagnosis or the patient dies. Prognosis - not good."
But why stop at 2015? If we went back to 1994, made Gordon Brown stand and watched him come a humiliating last behind Margaret Beckett then he would have been sacked and things would have been much easier all around.
Simply repeating 'the voters will blame the government' doesn't make it true - especially when its contradicted by polling - even Remain voters think the EU will not offer us a good deal.
https://twitter.com/davidluhnow/status/860513664436142081
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860496709431943174
Congrats to the Scottish National Party on gaining 6 seats.
He was extravagantly loyal in public to Corbyn on first election (without getting involved in McDonnell's Praetorian Guard which might involve beating up colleagues who might help him). He steered clear of the coup (either as plotter or defender). He swept to the nomination without a Corbynista challenge. And he won the election very, very handsomely (always likely but it really was a notably overwhelming win in awful circumstances). Now he's got what he wants, he wants absolutely nothing to do with Corbyn, and stabs him in the back by simply failing to share a stage with him. Corbyn is yesterday's man today for Burnham - he'll be seen as a reviled mistake the next time Burnham needs the Labour Party, so why do him favours?
Is that nice? No. Is it realpolitik? Yes. I can name another politician in recent times who was notably loyal to her boss, short of actually lifting a finger to help him as he pursued his biggest policy error. Then, the moment the boss was yesterday's man, she stole the clothes of the people who had brought her boss down while they were looking elsewhere, bundled the boss out of the door, and settled old scores with his allies. Brutal but effective.
There is a reason why the working class are leaving Labour in their droves you know.
The resulting slate of councillors reflects the balance of opinion in that community far more effectively than the absurd set of mostly one-party states that passes for democracy in the rest of our country's local government. It's a mature result and in England we should be ashamed that our politics is so primitive.
In five weeks they will be ready to explain how losing vote share and seats is a massive victory for Nicola...
Of course, the complicated council voting system does flatter the Tories somewhat.
They may be on the march but in a head-to-head contest in a general election, they won’t get quite the same result. And it should be remembered that the SNP were the clear winners in yesterday’s council election.
The nationalists won the most votes, the most seats and were the biggest party in the most councils.
game over :-)
It is interesting to see on Facebook and elsewhere how many people regret the loss of their good Lib Dem MP, and their disappointment with the Tory replacement.
The fact is that these new Tory MPs are just part of the Tory machine vote in Parliament, and do not stand up for local people and local interests.
1 pence on income tax?
So that's 30 million people paying an extra penny each = £300,000.
Nowhere near £6bn.
Where did he get his figures? Abbott?
I wish there'd been a market on the Saturday piece being an in-depth discussion about the Lib Dem performance at the local election. The very definition of a certainty.
As a card-carrying LD, it's obviously disappointing to see net losses when some were predicting net gains but this election has a main truth and a series of interesting truths just below the surface.
So, a tale of two Surrey Divisions - Sunbury Common in Spelthorne and Godalming North in Waverley, the former a LD loss to the Conservatives, the latter a LD gain from the Conservatives.
Sunbury Common in 2013 voted:
LD 40% UKIP 25%, CON 21%, LAB 14%
In 2017:
LD 33% UKIP 8%, CON 44%, LAB 13%
Spelthorne voted LEAVE and even though the local LD County Councillor had served 16 years, the UKIP collapse and anti-REMAIN sentiment swept him away.
Godalming North in 2013:
CON 44%, LD 21%, UKIP 19%, LAB 16%
In 2017:
CON 40% LD 46%, UKIP 6%
Progressive alliance in REMAIN areas anyone ? The benficiaries of the UKIP collapse weren't the Conservatives or perhaps even the LDs.
Food for thought and a lesson that sometimes sweeping generalisations mask what's really going on.
And they'll be very angry.
I can't see any scenario where the party doesn't collapse and split.
Also, we probably couldn't have afforded it without the American loan. So direct your thanks to the Americans and the Conservatives as much as to Labour.
Lab 34.9%
LD 24.8%
Con 22.8%
He seems to think that he still has some influence to get the results that he wants, but he will just be a handicap to whatever faction that he declares to support.
During the next Tory UK midterm, in Scotland the Cons will struggle to make more progress.
It seems we have at least two (and perhaps more) competing political societies at work. In more strongly pro-LEAVE areas, the UKIP collapse (the one common factor) is directly benefiting the Conservatives but in addition there has been a move away from the more pro-REMAIN parties in these areas (Labour support seems less affected by this).
In the REMAIN areas, the politics and voting are different - the UKIP collapse hasn't always translated into support for the Conservatives and indeed that support is coming under some pressure as the anti-Conservative vote seems more able and willing to coalesce around a pro-REMAIN candidate. There seems room for a limited tactical "progressive alliance" in some areas.
The Conservatives hugely benefit from the former area being greater than the latter. It may be this divergence will ease as the UKIP vote is washed away with time (next year will presumably see the eradication of most of the remaining District/Borough Councillors).
To paraphrase Marc Antony, I come to praise UKIP, not to bury it. It's rare a political party or movement achieves its objective - those whose philosophies are couched in more abstract terms can be assured of a reasonably continuing existence and perhaps one day the SNP or PC will achieve their stated aim. UKIP have - kudos to them and they can thank their most effective supporter and helper - David Cameron.
As for the Scottish results, the roughly as-you-were total for the SNP masks changing patterns of voting: in summary, they're advancing in parts of the old Labour heartland and going backwards in many stronger No voting areas. They did extremely well in both Glasgow and Dundee, but lost their previous majority in the latter. They are only one seat ahead of the Tories in Edinburgh, have been replaced by the Conservatives as the single largest party in Aberdeenshire and in Perth & Kinross, and have had a mixed bag of gains and losses elsewhere.
They've done very well, have clearly won this election, and are going to retain the large majority of their Westminster seats at a canter. This doesn't mean that, if they ship five or ten seats next month to some of their opponents, that the opponents have achieved nothing at all. That's both a complacent attitude, and one which writes off all the voters that supported them before, and have chosen to reject them since. An especially dangerous attitude for supporters of a party that is going to need, one day, to be able to convince an absolute majority of voters to back its core aim, if that aim is ever to be achieved.
Oh 1%. Strange - why didn't he type that instead? The 'p' & '%' keys aren't anywhere near each other.
So say someone earns £30,000. The extra 1% is £300.
And they pay that on top of existing taxes, with the costs of mortgage/rent, food, heat & light, vehicle(s) & fuel, and everything else they need to live.
Then out of the little that remains for themselves, they have to pay another £300 - with no guarantee it will be spent efficiently or wisely.
No wonder the LibDems use "penny in the pound" so it doesn't sound like much.
For the Lib Dems, there is no easy way to explain their poor performance. I personally think it is Tim Farron. The guy is a complete muppet. Not a single person I know takes him seriously, whatever one thought of Nick Clegg, he was a fairly serious guy. Farron is just an over promoted council leader who continually looks like a rabbit in headlights. Additionally as Alastair said in the header, their central campaign message is essentially to reverse Brexit and as Aschroft's polling showed they are trying to appeal to people who satisfy not just those who think Brexit was a bad decision (ca. 45% according to YouGov) but the small subset of those who think it was a bad decision and want to see it reversed or frustrated somehow. They are the williamglen party, most Remainers I know and even most on here who think Brexit was the wrong decision are resolved to seeing through now. In asking for that additional step the Lib Dems are limiting themselves to a maximum of 25% of voters, they would need an incredibly high conversion rate of those voters to gain more than 4 or 5 seats and there is also no guarantee that the voters they seek are in the right places. Winning a bunch of votes in Islington or other inner London areas where the antipathy to Brexit is the highest is completely pointless, Labour aren't going to lose anything there.
Overall I think the Lib Dems need a new leader and a new message even more desperately than Labour. This was a once in a generation opportunity for them to consolidate some of the centre left and centre right vote not happy with the direction of their own parties heading out towards the extremes, but they and the leader just aren't credible.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives to retain all or most of these seats would be for May 6th 2021 to be General Election day.
I've not done the detailed analysis but my comment from a few weeks ago about my thoughts for the LD performance seem to have been borne out which splits into four parts:
1) Areas of traditional strength where the Party has done well - places like Eastleigh, Cheltenham, Bath and a few areas seem to have been islands of strength in seas of weakness. Whether there is enough strength to return LD MPs remains to be seen - the problem is the Conservatives will know where these areas are as well and where resources need to be targeted.
2) Areas of traditional strength where the Party hasn't done well - these exist, Cornwall has been disappointing for the most part though that's more a reflection of Conservative strength than LD weakness. In Surrey, as an example, the Lib Dem vote increased by 7% - the Conservative vote rose by 8%. Both benefited from the 17% collapse in UKIP support but that collapse worked differently in LEAVE areas (went straight to the Conservatives) and REMAIN areas (stayed at home).
3) Areas of traditional weakness where the party has done well - it's not well known that 2/3 of the current LD leadership joined after the 2015 GE. The party I knew and joined in 1981 has gone - there is a new party with strength in new areas - not many of these as yet but there may be some results which buck the national trend.
4) The Rest - there are regrettably vast tracts of the country where the party has little or no presence at all. These have always existed but are larger now and it will take a long time for activity to return (if it ever does).
When the inevitable disillusionment with the May Government sets in and the midterm hits, the LDs will, I think, take back their previous role of temporary refuge for the disillusioned and as long as Labour consign themselves to irrelevance, the LDs will prosper as that repository and there will be so many more of those votes available under June 8th. The real challenge will be if and when Labour regains its credibility. As history tells us, a credible Labour alternative after a long period of Conservative rule is almost unstoppable,
Have you been studying Abborithmetic?