I remember in the Thatcher years that Francis Pym messed up an interview and stated later that he thought he'd lost Thatcher the election. He hadn't, of course, it was just him thinking he was important. It wasn't on the epic scale of Abbott - that is a corker - but even her mis-spoke is already priced in. We know she's gormless.
Even Jezza can cock-up on a grand scale without problems. It's when he puts together a coherent sentence that we're surprised. If Labour stick to announcing popular policies, they'll at least stop the rot. We assume they'll be un-costed and dependent on the Magic Money Tree, but they'll sound good.
The upshot of this disaster is that people may only remember a pledge to put more plod on the beat.
Mr. Observer, I agree. There are some who want us to capitulate utterly and grovel to return, and those on the other side who seem to want no compromise whatsoever.
We'll see over the coming months how things progress. Electorally, the situation should improve. EU bureaucrats may prove problematic, however.
The big risk is we pay up and get a deal. But that deal then gets watered down / diminished by the EU because - well that's what the EU does. Why does a dog lick its balls? They'll take the money but then start to frustrate us. I don't think they can actually be trusted. Ask the voters of France, Ireland, Denmark, Greece, Netherlands what happens when decisions go the 'wrong' way. If we walk, no deal/no payment/nada then in a few years' time both sides are likely to conclude that not trading 100% free and having WTO tariffs is not in either side's interest - and then we might get a deal. But we'll have avoided a joke settlement up front.
Mr. HYUFD, jein. Pre-election period in the UK, Germany and France all at once. It's an electioneering phase. One hopes that when that's done and dusted, compromise and a reasonable agreement is possible.
We shall see.
As for Macron's 'Frexit' wibbling - hahahahaha. We'll see by his approach to our departure whether he really thinks France might leave. If he does, then he'll want good terms for us to set a positive precedent. I am not convinced this will be the case.
Macron will not give the UK a great deal but his comments show he recognises FN will double their voteshare from 2002 and if that happens again they get a majority
40 -> 80% is a "touch" harder than 20 -> 40% in a 2 horse race.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Well, I thought A50 might not get served until March 2018 so as far as I can see we are ahead of the game.
As for the terrible negotiations - they haven't even sat down yet.
Macron's using a Samsung phone. Those things are death traps.
He should be using an iPhone.
If I lived in France, this would make me consider voting Le Pen this weekend.
Ooh now there's an ideological divide. My wife swears by Apple. I hate Apple and won't buy their phones because they are control freaks and there's something sinister about their corporate ethos. I'm a Samsung man myself. Haven't burnt to death yet. And my Android phone interacts with the world in a way that iPhones don't.
I'm with you. I wouldn't touch an Apple product. I do rather like my Samsung. Clearly the choice of winners like Macron.
She was completely right to refuse the jurisdiction of the ECJ - it is fundamental to Brexit to restore sovereignty. The country I think are quite behind her on this.
Personally, if I were an EU citizen I would be a lot happier with my rights being overseen by UK courts than the jokers at the ECJ, who have to phone around EU leaders to find out what decision they are meant to make.
@IanDunt: Over & over again May's problems come down to that rash promise she made at Tory conference to pull out the ECJ theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
@IanDunt: Remember that day? How jubilant Brexiters were - even the sensible ones? Everyone else said: She's going to come a cropper on that ECJ bit.
@IanDunt: And now here we are and on issue after issue after issue the ECJ promise is reducing her room to manouvre, increasing the chances of no-deal
@IanDunt: and forcing millions of EU cits in UK to live with uncertainty. All because she needed to placate the lunatic fringe
@IanDunt: of her party on an issue the country didn't give a damn about.
Far be it from me to correct you on matters historical but no, not really.
Areas of Le Pen strength in the north east and east lie in areas either directly annexed to Germany at Compiegne or occupied from the start.
Vichy includes areas of Le Pen strength around Marseilles and Toulon.
Much of Macron's strongholds in the west and north west were also occupied by the Germans and became submarine bases such as at Lorient which held out until the very end of the war (along with Dunkirk oddly enough) and were the areas fortified as part of the Atlantic Wall.
To more serious matters and any thoughts on the 2000 Guineas ? CHURCHILL is very short - I can't help but remember what happened to AIR FORCE BLUE who was the big Ballydoyle talking horse last year but was well beaten.
Hard not to be impressed by AL WUKAIR, ELEMENT and BARNEY ROY who have all won trials and won them well. That said, I thought ELEMENT was ready for the Craven and I'm not sure how much more there is while BARNEY ROY was all over the place at Newbury and AL WUKAIR might struggle on the fast ground and the undulations.
Thank you, young Stodge.
Yes, I was aware I was taking a bit of a liberte avec la verite. I should know better. You can get away with that type of thing in the dead tree press but not on PB. The readership is smarter. There is a sort of substantive truth about the comparison perhaps, but basically 'guilty as charged'.
As for the 2000 Guineas, my pin has a better idea than me. I may be going however, so will note down your typically informed views.
Macron will certainly win but 40 or even 41% for Le Pen will still be a big shot across the bows of the French and EU establishment and hence even the normally Europhile Macron said that if the EU does not reform even Frexit could soon be on the cards. Meanwhile Merkel and Juncker still have their heads firmly in the sand and as recent statements show are as uncompromising as ever
If they say 'Please give me E100bn' what they are really saying is 'I expect to get E0bn'. Just Walk Theresa.
They are creating a situation in which paying half of 100 billion is seen as a triumph for May.
If that is so and they pull it off it has been a brilliant manoeuvre, but 50 bn is still really hard to sell, I'm not convinced that Is the must likely explanation. It will be to easy for opponents to point out the eu arbitrarily nearly double the bill, and may arguing she argued them down would not be credible.
Would May not get the backing of the British people to pay a sum to avoid a diamond hard Brexit? Who could make political capital from such a move?
And how much are you willing to pay ?
And after paying it what happens if the EU then says it wants more - do you pay the new demand as well ?
And if you pay the new demand what happens if the EU then says it wants more - do you pay that demand as well ?
Surely Eirexit, and No it won't happen. They will benefit too much from Brexit and staying in themselves.
Yesterday they were asking the EU for a handout to cope with it.
(Ireland is) making a strong case at EU level that the UK’s withdrawal represents a serious disturbance to the Irish economy overall and that we will require support;
@IanDunt: Over & over again May's problems come down to that rash promise she made at Tory conference to pull out the ECJ theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
@IanDunt: Remember that day? How jubilant Brexiters were - even the sensible ones? Everyone else said: She's going to come a cropper on that ECJ bit.
@IanDunt: And now here we are and on issue after issue after issue the ECJ promise is reducing her room to manouvre, increasing the chances of no-deal
@IanDunt: and forcing millions of EU cits in UK to live with uncertainty. All because she needed to placate the lunatic fringe
@IanDunt: of her party on an issue the country didn't give a damn about.
Another moron who doesn't understand the importance of being able to make one's own laws . It is amusing how completely bereft of understanding the Eurofanatics are about the importance of leaving the ECJ. It is the fundamental basis of the whole Brexit process. Claiming it is simply some side issue just reveals your utter ignorance.
How do you ensure that two courts do not interpret the same law differently? That is at the root of the citizens' rights issue. There has to be one court at the top to issue a definitive judgment. That may not be the ECJ, but it has to be something. That is, if we want to ensure that existing rights are protected.
Surprised nobody has even mentioned on this thread that we have the TV debate tonight between Macron and Le Pen.
If Le Pen goes for the jugular tonight and does really well, then she still has a chance. Not saying that it is likely to happen, but mention it as a warning to those who are tempted to pile in on Macron at heavy odds on.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Who are those leavers? If experience tells us anything it is that the EU cannot be negotiated with. To paraphrase Kyle Reese: 'Listen, and understand. That Project is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are assimilated.'
Who thought it would be a doddle? Negotiating with a bunch of control freaks will always be difficult. And the fact that they are control freaks is why they will march on confident in their ultimate goal of a united European country.
It's why they will allow no compromise, and why many of us voted to Leave. Hasn't seeing their true colours made you just a little cautious. Do you really want to be locked into their madcap ambitions?
Free your mind, Mr Meeks, join the Brexit revolution.
Surely Eirexit, and No it won't happen. They will benefit too much from Brexit and staying in themselves.
Yesterday they were asking the EU for a handout to cope with it.
Well, as many have said, we haven't left yet ;-) As we do some companies will find it beneficial to have a nearby English speaking area within the EU to relocate some of their offices.
If you believe the French polls are close to reality (as they clearly were for the first round) there are very good odds on Betfair for the vote shares by candidate.
As all polls now converge on 60/40, you can cover both the Le Pen 35 to 40 (3.05) and the 40 to 45 (2.65) and you are guaranteed a much better return than the 1.11 on Macron winning.
You may think she can have a great debate tonight and reach 45+ or than she will collapse under 35 in the last three days but I don't see it.
Also there is the entirely valid question of whether hiring 10,000 more policemen is the right thing to do anyway even if wholly costed and affordable.
Annoyingly I can't find it now but some senior retried policeman said yesterday that it was not the best use of funds anyway.
Crime is down loads, as are police numbers. Maybe we should get rid of all of them...
Mrs Stodge sits on the local Police Neighbourhood Liaison Group as she is either a) a pillar of the local community, b) worried about crime or c) nosey (delete as appropriate).
One of the members asked about the apparent reduction in beat patrols. Apparently the former Home Secretary (her name escapes me) issued an edict that motorised patrolling with officers in cars and vans was more cost effective than walking patrols.
It's just a thought but sometimes the cheapest most cost-effective thing isn't always the best thing. Public sector outsourcing is one example - I would argue the cost of having more Police out and about on foot is more than offset by public confidence and goodwill. It's a good Labour policy (and Conservatives have argued for it as well, oddly enough, when Labour were in Government).
You can't always allow the bottom line to dictate public policy - people are willing to pay extra for some things and I would argue people would pay a little extra for a more visible traditional police presence (and that includes re-opening local stations).
Surprised nobody has even mentioned on this thread that we have the TV debate tonight between Macron and Le Pen.
If Le Pen goes for the jugular tonight and does really well, then she still has a chance. Not saying that it is likely to happen, but mention it as a warning to those who are tempted to pile in on Macron at heavy odds on.
Macron isn't allowed to duck out and sit on his 20% lead?
Talking about pollster accuracy, the French pollster Elabe predicted the first round as: Macron 24 Le Pen 21.5 Fillon 20 Mélenchon 19.5 Hamon 7 Dupont Aignan 4
Andthe results were: Macron 24.01 Le Pen 21.3 Fillon 20.01 Mélenchon 19.58 Hamon 6.36 Dupont 4.7
Their last second round poll is Macron 59 / Le Pen 41.
Macron will certainly win but 40 or even 41% for Le Pen will still be a big shot across the bows of the French and EU establishment and hence even the normally Europhile Macron said that if the EU does not reform even Frexit could soon be on the cards. Meanwhile Merkel and Juncker still have their heads firmly in the sand and as recent statements show are as uncompromising as ever
If they say 'Please give me E100bn' what they are really saying is 'I expect to get E0bn'. Just Walk Theresa.
They are creating a situation in which paying half of 100 billion is seen as a triumph for May.
If that is so and they pull it off it has been a brilliant manoeuvre, but 50 bn is still really hard to sell, I'm not convinced that Is the must likely explanation. It will be to easy for opponents to point out the eu arbitrarily nearly double the bill, and may arguing she argued them down would not be credible.
Would May not get the backing of the British people to pay a sum to avoid a diamond hard Brexit? Who could make political capital from such a move?
UKIP
Are they still a thing?
They will be if May doesn't deliver.
This is why the continuity Remainers are strategically disgraceful: I want UKIP dead and buried. They should too. The only way to achieve that is with a decent Leave.
If it is all about sovereignty then isn't even €100bn worth it? We'd pay that for a war with Spain after all. And if it is really about the money, then why not offer to stay in the EU for a one off lump sum cash payment? In which case €100bn sounds reasonable.
Surprised nobody has even mentioned on this thread that we have the TV debate tonight between Macron and Le Pen.
If Le Pen goes for the jugular tonight and does really well, then she still has a chance. Not saying that it is likely to happen, but mention it as a warning to those who are tempted to pile in on Macron at heavy odds on.
Macron isn't allowed to duck out and sit on his 20% lead?
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Who are those leavers? If experience tells us anything it is that the EU cannot be negotiated with. To paraphrase Kyle Reese: 'Listen, and understand. That Project is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are assimilated.'
I'll anonymise the posts to protect the guilty, but, for example:
"Mr Meeks, any form of negotiations has to be set against the backdrop of who has most to gain and lose. In these international negotiations the larger trading partners within the EU rely on us to buy more of their goods than the figure we have to sell to them. Can Germany afford disruption in one of its biggest european purchasers of its goods at this time of economic low/no growth? The answer is no and that applies to the key EU countries. Because of this and other factors, deals can be done and we have cash and influence that can lubricate the process. We are no longer the sick man of Europe that we were in the 1970s."
"The trade deals he [Mr Meeks] highlights were negotiated from scratch to create new trading rules and terms. Most of the deals required post-Brexit will be a reformulation of existing rules and terms simply to acknowledge the UK's new status outside the EU."
"If the Eurocrats want certainty in their dealings with us, they will rapidly make a deal. Or else, people might see that the Earth doesn't stop spinning without a trade deal and think "what was all the fuss about?" And that would NEVER do in the Eurocrat mentality. I mean, people might query their WORTH! Heavens to Betsy...."
Agreed - I'd like to see proper forecasting of what happens to jobs in companies that currently rely on European supply chains and/or have strong European sales should we leave precipitously and move to WTO rules. What happens to tax rates and takes with a diamond hard Brexit? What about spending on public services? To what extent would air and sea travel be affected? What happens if a lot of EU nationals leave and a lot of UK nationals return - what's the net affect? And so on. These are vitally important things to know. Hopefully, the government has been doing the sums.
The UK is bringing in a new and much needed customs handling system for non-EU freight. Planned rollout, March 2019, just in time for Brexit. Complex government IT project - what could possibly go wrong?
We'll pay an agreed exit fee, do most of what the EU wants and agree an extension on current terms and payments. Why wouldn't we? Even if we crashed out, at some point we will want to do business with the continent we are part of, which means going through the EU. They won't have forgotten about the money. We will pay it, do the other stuff and get on with our lives.
We're seeing the Kuebler-Ross stages of grief that Leavers gleefully accused Remainers of after the referendum, but this time applying to them. Having denied the effects of Brexit, they are now angry about them. Most will eventually accept Brexit in all its compromised mediocrity.
Yes, I was aware I was taking a bit of a liberte avec la verite. I should know better. You can get away with that type of thing in the dead tree press but not on PB. The readership is smarter. There is a sort of substantive truth about the comparison perhaps, but basically 'guilty as charged'.
As for the 2000 Guineas, my pin has a better idea than me. I may be going however, so will note down your typically informed views.
See you there?
Apologies, mon ami. I drifted off into pedantry there.
The east-west split of France is fascinating and I wonder why it happened - demographics, economics, history, culture must have had a part. Macron won very big in parts of Brittany and the Loire. Don't know.
I won't be on the "blasted Heath" on Saturday as I have to visit Mr Stodge Senior. The Jockey Club Stakes is always an informative race as well.
I didn't go but I thought the racing at Punchestown surpassed Cheltenham this year and was some of the best jumps racing I have seen for years in terms of close finishes. I'm trying to persuade my friend who owns a hunter chaser to have a crack at the La Touche next year so we can go over.
Although as Dr Fisher himself says, these are more for curiosity value than to be taken very seriously. In which case, why bother to publish them?
This is a transposition of national polling to the locals - and as such provides a test as to whether people will vote differently in the locals or whether it is a dry run for the GE.
These are useful numbers by Fisher, he is testing an (unlikely) hypothesis.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Who are those leavers? If experience tells us anything it is that the EU cannot be negotiated with. To paraphrase Kyle Reese: 'Listen, and understand. That Project is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are assimilated.'
Sounds more like Momentum to me, but it's a great line. From The Terminator?
Who thought it would be a doddle? Negotiating with a bunch of control freaks will always be difficult. And the fact that they are control freaks is why they will march on confident in their ultimate goal of a united European country.
It's why they will allow no compromise, and why many of us voted to Leave. Hasn't seeing their true colours made you just a little cautious. Do you really want to be locked into their madcap ambitions?
Free your mind, Mr Meeks, join the Brexit revolution.
Macron's using a Samsung phone. Those things are death traps.
He should be using an iPhone.
If I lived in France, this would make me consider voting Le Pen this weekend.
Ooh now there's an ideological divide. My wife swears by Apple. I hate Apple and won't buy their phones because they are control freaks and there's something sinister about their corporate ethos. I'm a Samsung man myself. Haven't burnt to death yet. And my Android phone interacts with the world in a way that iPhones don't.
I'm with you. I wouldn't touch an Apple product. I do rather like my Samsung. Clearly the choice of winners like Macron.
Those who like open standards, freedom, wide connections, not being tied down, open source, compatibility, low cost and the power to decide in the hands of the individual - Samsung, Android, Conservatives, free markets, libertarians, people who think and care for their rights. Those who like 'my way or the highway', control freaks, one solution only connectivity, Apple and nothing else, closed source, incompatibility, high cost, you don't get to decide shit because we know best - Apple, socialists, Labour, command economies, nannies, people who want to extend your 'rights' by telling what the fuck to do. Or else.
Morning all. On topic, and as mentioned previously, Le Pen is 3.2 on Betfair to win 35-40% of the vote, which is in line with nearly all the polls. The 40-45% band is also available for 2.62 as a cover, for an average of 1.455 assuming the same stakes on both bets.
A pretty much nailed on 45.5% return in three days, unless I'm missing something?
Surprised nobody has even mentioned on this thread that we have the TV debate tonight between Macron and Le Pen.
If Le Pen goes for the jugular tonight and does really well, then she still has a chance. Not saying that it is likely to happen, but mention it as a warning to those who are tempted to pile in on Macron at heavy odds on.
They've been on the same platform before and both are quite good at that kind of thing, so a surprise would be....well, surprising.
This morning I have an election flyer from the local independents sorry ex-Lib Dems which is about 400mm long and won't even fit in the post box.
There is a whole row of them on display down the street.
One of the dubious benefits of living in London is the lack of local elections this year. Indeed, no sign of any electioneering at all here in East Ham. Given the triumphalism on here, could Stephen Timms be taking his 35,000 majority for granted?
If you believe the French polls are close to reality (as they clearly were for the first round) there are very good odds on Betfair for the vote shares by candidate.
As all polls now converge on 60/40, you can cover both the Le Pen 35 to 40 (3.05) and the 40 to 45 (2.65) and you are guaranteed a much better return than the 1.11 on Macron winning.
You may think she can have a great debate tonight and reach 45+ or than she will collapse under 35 in the last three days but I don't see it.
I got on exactly that this morning with coral who go 2.75 both bands.
Very interesting debate in the European Parliament and critism of Juncker's leaking and the creation of a hostile atmosphere. Guy Verfhofstadt says that he expects this to ramp up until 9th June.
There in that statement is the EU directly trying to interfere in the UK election. Sadly they do not realise that this is playing into TM's hand.
For those on here who think the EU is united todays debate shows there is a lot of concern about the tone and the need to secure citizens rights. Verfhofstadt says that the exit bill will be negotiated and does not mention a figure. It looks like they may agree that independent arbitration will be needed
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
Morning all. On topic, and as mentioned previously, Le Pen is 3.2 on Betfair to win 35-40% of the vote, which is in line with nearly all the polls. The 40-45% band is also available for 2.62 as a cover, for an average of 1.455 assuming the same stakes on both bets.
A pretty much nailed on 45.5% return in three days, unless I'm missing something?
Off topic, I see the EU have upped their payment demand overnight, demonstrating clearly why we voted to leave, why 'no deal' is now pretty much inevitable, why the EU are going to end up with their worst-case scenario of another Singapore on their doorstep and adding a half-dozen more seats to the Con lead all in one go.
To paraphrase Dan Hannan, it's possible to like Europe but dislike the EU, in the same way it's possible to like football but dislike FIFA.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Just bloody name them then.
I might do. Eventually. But why should I not enjoy myself a little?
The odds of the Lib Dems occupying the most seats at the next election now range from 25/1 all the way out to 100/1.
!
Amazing, its not a 100-1 chance, it's not even a 1000-1 chance. It is much, much much more odds against.
Either people do actually take these bets and so it's worth offering them. Or they are there for tidiness, to complete the set of outcomes, but they don't expect anyone to take them. I guess.
@IanDunt: Over & over again May's problems come down to that rash promise she made at Tory conference to pull out the ECJ theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
@IanDunt: Remember that day? How jubilant Brexiters were - even the sensible ones? Everyone else said: She's going to come a cropper on that ECJ bit.
@IanDunt: And now here we are and on issue after issue after issue the ECJ promise is reducing her room to manouvre, increasing the chances of no-deal
@IanDunt: and forcing millions of EU cits in UK to live with uncertainty. All because she needed to placate the lunatic fringe
@IanDunt: of her party on an issue the country didn't give a damn about.
Another moron who doesn't understand the importance of being able to make one's own laws . It is amusing how completely bereft of understanding the Eurofanatics are about the importance of leaving the ECJ. It is the fundamental basis of the whole Brexit process. Claiming it is simply some side issue just reveals your utter ignorance.
Citing Ian "rhyming slang" Dunt is always a red flag. It's nearly as bad as somebody yesterday who tried to claim meaning from a Dr Eoin tweet.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Just bloody name them then.
I might do. Eventually. But why should I not enjoy myself a little?
I'm seriously impressed that you can dig this up at a moment's notice. Are you keeping files on PB posters' histories? You must be very bored these days.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
I think negotiating with someone who will not budge is very easy. You walk
Negotiating with someone who will move nearly far enough to tempt you is difficult. You may tango.
Negotiating with someone who concedes your points is easy. You skip away.
Negotiating with the EU is difficult, as they have various 'masters' EU parliament, Commissioners, National heads of state. Knowing who will veto or change any product of the negotiation makes it an impossible negotiating partner, as the negotiators can't actually negotiate without additional levels of opaque approval.
Why are the Conservatives odds against in St Ives on Betfair Sportsbook?
Thursday's local elections may be informative. Can the LDs win control of Cornwall ?
I don't want to bet with more information. All the value either way will have gone. I'd rather speculate wildly.
Tories will probably be even better value there after the locals mind. (I'm on here at odds against too)
Betfair aren't even best price for the Tories in St Ives. In fact they're the shortest. I think the Lib Dem performance feels like the best area for profit in this election. they are favs in 17 seats I think which is much less than their mid-market spread but higher than I think they'll get. I should be wary though. they lost me money last time by underperforming so badly. they'll probably cost me again this time by doing too well.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Just bloody name them then.
This one is quite an interesting one. In response to TSE commenting:
"Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy."
one poster commented as follows:
"It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to."
Surprised nobody has even mentioned on this thread that we have the TV debate tonight between Macron and Le Pen.
If Le Pen goes for the jugular tonight and does really well, then she still has a chance. Not saying that it is likely to happen, but mention it as a warning to those who are tempted to pile in on Macron at heavy odds on.
They've been on the same platform before and both are quite good at that kind of thing, so a surprise would be....well, surprising.
Agreed, although one to one is a slightly different dynamic. If Le Pen has any bombshell line of attack she has been keeping up her sleeve, tonight is the time to deploy it.
I have to say, I think this is unlikely, However, I felt it important to point out that we do have a TV debate tonight, as it had not been mentioned previously on this thread, and did not want people piling in at 1.11 thinking it was free money.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Just bloody name them then.
I might do. Eventually. But why should I not enjoy myself a little?
I'm seriously impressed that you can dig this up at a moment's notice. Are you keeping files on PB posters' histories? You must be very bored these days.
It's easy when you know where you're looking. And this morning I have a little time on my hands.
Morning all. On topic, and as mentioned previously, Le Pen is 3.2 on Betfair to win 35-40% of the vote, which is in line with nearly all the polls. The 40-45% band is also available for 2.62 as a cover, for an average of 1.455 assuming the same stakes on both bets.
A pretty much nailed on 45.5% return in three days, unless I'm missing something?
Agreed - I'd like to see proper forecasting of what happens to jobs in companies that currently rely on European supply chains and/or have strong European sales should we leave precipitously and move to WTO rules. What happens to tax rates and takes with a diamond hard Brexit? What about spending on public services? To what extent would air and sea travel be affected? What happens if a lot of EU nationals leave and a lot of UK nationals return - what's the net affect? And so on. These are vitally important things to know. Hopefully, the government has been doing the sums.
The UK is bringing in a new and much needed customs handling system for non-EU freight. Planned rollout, March 2019, just in time for Brexit. Complex government IT project - what could possibly go wrong?
We'll pay an agreed exit fee, do most of what the EU wants and agree an extension on current terms and payments. Why wouldn't we? Even if we crashed out, at some point we will want to do business with the continent we are part of, which means going through the EU. They won't have forgotten about the money. We will pay it, do the other stuff and get on with our lives.
We're seeing the Kuebler-Ross stages of grief that Leavers gleefully accused Remainers of after the referendum, but this time applying to them. Having denied the effects of Brexit, they are now angry about them. Most will eventually accept Brexit in all its compromised mediocrity.
That's a whole big raft of wishful thinking there FF. I suspect you are still unwilling to accept we are leaving and are looking around for anything to justify your indignation.
F1: no markets yet, but I might look for a silly odds tiny stake bet to commemorate the excellent Verstappen tip from last year.
I shall be pleased if the Spanish Grand Prix goes as well (I also got a much more insightful, and less fluky, bet on Ricciardo at about 8 or 9 right too).
If it is all about sovereignty then isn't even €100bn worth it? We'd pay that for a war with Spain after all. And if it is really about the money, then why not offer to stay in the EU for a one off lump sum cash payment? In which case €100bn sounds reasonable.
Or as I saw somewhere else -
Now its 100 billion! Who did they get to work that out? Diane Abbott?
It is nearly ten oclock. When are we going to get today's car crash Labour interview?
Started at 06:46 according to Guido. John Ashworth car crash interview on This Morning.
Just watched it. Not only a car crash, but he ended up lying. Blatant, full on lie. We would fire back under a Lab government seemed to be the final answer dragged out of this dimwit.
But we wouldn't - because PM is top of chain of command and Jezza has said he would not.
Yes, I was aware I was taking a bit of a liberte avec la verite. I should know better. You can get away with that type of thing in the dead tree press but not on PB. The readership is smarter. There is a sort of substantive truth about the comparison perhaps, but basically 'guilty as charged'.
As for the 2000 Guineas, my pin has a better idea than me. I may be going however, so will note down your typically informed views.
See you there?
Apologies, mon ami. I drifted off into pedantry there.
The east-west split of France is fascinating and I wonder why it happened - demographics, economics, history, culture must have had a part. Macron won very big in parts of Brittany and the Loire. Don't know.
I won't be on the "blasted Heath" on Saturday as I have to visit Mr Stodge Senior. The Jockey Club Stakes is always an informative race as well.
I didn't go but I thought the racing at Punchestown surpassed Cheltenham this year and was some of the best jumps racing I have seen for years in terms of close finishes. I'm trying to persuade my friend who owns a hunter chaser to have a crack at the La Touche next year so we can go over.
Pas de probleme.
Yes, it is fascinating. I know the Aude region down past Carcassonne best of all and have friends there. They're pretty attuned to the local politics. Melenchon goes down well there, and Le Pen does quite well, but they're not expecting her to improve much on the 40% she is currently recording.
It's one of the great omissions of my life that I have never been racing in Ireland, so if you are looking to fill up a mini-bus...... We could get the ferry to Rosslare and drive down to Cork. We might never come back. Sigh.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Just bloody name them then.
This one is quite an interesting one. In response to TSE commenting:
"Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy."
one poster commented as follows:
"It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to."
My word you've copied and filed posts?
No idea who wrote that but I'd suggest you have issues.
The expert addressing the European Parliament on citizens rights clearly indicates treaty change may be needed. I assume that will open a whole can of worms
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Just bloody name them then.
This one is quite an interesting one. In response to TSE commenting:
"Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy."
one poster commented as follows:
"It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to."
My word you've copied and filed posts?
No idea who wrote that but I'd suggest you have issues.
No, I've not filed posts. Words on the internet are easy to find when you know where they're stored. When people are vehemently denying that they've ever held a particular view, it's always useful to be able to double-check your recollection.
Do we know who @Tissue_Price is up against in the Don Valley selection? Surely we owe it to him to set up a book.
The Tory party is trying to ban local associations from publicising details of the shortlists, but ConHome seems to be doing an admirable job of doing so where such details are leaked to them.
Surprised nobody has even mentioned on this thread that we have the TV debate tonight between Macron and Le Pen.
If Le Pen goes for the jugular tonight and does really well, then she still has a chance. Not saying that it is likely to happen, but mention it as a warning to those who are tempted to pile in on Macron at heavy odds on.
They've been on the same platform before and both are quite good at that kind of thing, so a surprise would be....well, surprising.
Agreed, although one to one is a slightly different dynamic. If Le Pen has any bombshell line of attack she has been keeping up her sleeve, tonight is the time to deploy it.
I have to say, I think this is unlikely, However, I felt it important to point out that we do have a TV debate tonight, as it had not been mentioned previously on this thread, and did not want people piling in at 1.11 thinking it was free money.
With a 20% lead to overcome it would have to be one hell of a smoking gun for le pen to make up the deficit
F1: as we're discussing (with Le Pen) double-backing things, you can back both Vettel and Hamilton at a little over evens (2.2) for the title on Betfair.
You'd need quite a wodge to make it worthwhile, though.
Hard to see anyone else winning.
Also, long ago but I did top Bottas each way at 25 for the title (which then meant top 3 at a fifth the odds). There's some available, if you want it, to lay him for top 3 at 1.79 on Betfair. Not interested myself, but thought it worth mentioning (I'm also green if Raikkonen is top three).
Edited extra bit: sorry, think it was 26 (25/1). And tip*.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Just bloody name them then.
This one is quite an interesting one. In response to TSE commenting:
"Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy."
one poster commented as follows:
"It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to."
It won't precipitate an EU/Eurozone collapse because (currently) exiting the Eurozone is more painful than staying in. That may change in the future, but right now, inaction trumps action.
More importantly UK-EU trade would not stop in the case of diamond Brexit because WTO rules prevent discriminatory tariffs. It would be bad news for our car industry because supply chains cross the channel multiple times, and it wouldn't be great for financial services.
But it wouldn't be the end of the world for either us or the Eurozone.
The risk for us would be if we were already moving into a recession (for the reasons I have explained too many times already), in which case it could be extremely painful.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Just bloody name them then.
This one is quite an interesting one. In response to TSE commenting:
"Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy."
one poster commented as follows:
"It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to."
My word you've copied and filed posts?
No idea who wrote that but I'd suggest you have issues.
No, I've not filed posts. Words on the internet are easy to find when you know where they're stored. When people are vehemently denying that they've ever held a particular view, it's always useful to be able to double-check your recollection.
To what end?
Somebody posted a view, people express views all day everyday. To spend time attempting to prove them wrong suggests issues with inadequacy.
The internet has spawned a whole bunch of weirdos.
While we have all been enjoying Dianne Abbott's terminal gormlessness, has anyone in public media actually questioned the basic claim that Labour will deliver 10k new policemen for £300 million?
It seems to be difficult to find in a written down form, however I have seen the claim repeated unquestioned by the BBC News channel reporters this morning.
ISTM that a basic police salary is not far from £30k per annum, and by the time that gold plated pension, overheads, NICs and so on are added, the cost is closer to £60-70k per policeman.
Which makes the cost to Labour approx £600-700 million per annum and the claim as cloud-cuckoo land or not very honest. That swallows there entire purported £2.7bn savings from messing about with CGT on its own, yet they have been claiming it will take 'some of the CGT money'.
Yet not a peep from the press or the factcheckers as far as I know.
Sky pointed out it was a crock of shit.
I believe they also referred to the plans as austerity max as it allowed for no pay increases for four years and of course no budget for training or even equipment
That is Labour to a T - team truth my arse
Though arguing about the cost is like arguing about the size of the brexit bonus from contributions.
Police and fire service cuts over recent years have not been popular, and maintaining rural presence for both is a popular doorstep policy. Saving the Hinckley firestation and Cottage Hospital were central themes to our campaigning last weekend. No one asked how they would be funded.
Are you campaigning for Labour?
I thought you were a Lib, lets be honest in general not many people get into that level of detail and no one seriously expects the Libs to have to worry about paying for stuff.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Just bloody name them then.
This one is quite an interesting one. In response to TSE commenting:
"Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy."
one poster commented as follows:
"It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to."
My word you've copied and filed posts?
No idea who wrote that but I'd suggest you have issues.
No, I've not filed posts. Words on the internet are easy to find when you know where they're stored. When people are vehemently denying that they've ever held a particular view, it's always useful to be able to double-check your recollection.
To what end?
Somebody posted a view, people express views all day everyday. To spend time attempting to prove them wrong suggests issues with inadequacy.
The internet has spawned a whole bunch of weirdos.
To what end? To show that far too many Leavers are self-deceiving and backwards-rationalising.
The exercise took me approximately 5 minutes.
I'm sorry that you seem to think that it is somehow inappropriate to remind people of aggressively-expressed views that they have done 180 degree turns on.
Very interesting debate in the European Parliament and critism of Juncker's leaking and the creation of a hostile atmosphere. Guy Verfhofstadt says that he expects this to ramp up until 9th June.
There in that statement is the EU directly trying to interfere in the UK election. Sadly they do not realise that this is playing into TM's hand.
For those on here who think the EU is united todays debate shows there is a lot of concern about the tone and the need to secure citizens rights. Verfhofstadt says that the exit bill will be negotiated and does not mention a figure. It looks like they may agree that independent arbitration will be needed
Perhaps Juncker's calculation is that by interfering in the UK election the EU could secure a larger vote for May so she can concede more ground without losing her majority?
@IanDunt: Over & over again May's problems come down to that rash promise she made at Tory conference to pull out the ECJ theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
@IanDunt: Remember that day? How jubilant Brexiters were - even the sensible ones? Everyone else said: She's going to come a cropper on that ECJ bit.
@IanDunt: And now here we are and on issue after issue after issue the ECJ promise is reducing her room to manouvre, increasing the chances of no-deal
@IanDunt: and forcing millions of EU cits in UK to live with uncertainty. All because she needed to placate the lunatic fringe
@IanDunt: of her party on an issue the country didn't give a damn about.
Another moron who doesn't understand the importance of being able to make one's own laws . It is amusing how completely bereft of understanding the Eurofanatics are about the importance of leaving the ECJ. It is the fundamental basis of the whole Brexit process. Claiming it is simply some side issue just reveals your utter ignorance.
How do you ensure that two courts do not interpret the same law differently? That is at the root of the citizens' rights issue. There has to be one court at the top to issue a definitive judgment. That may not be the ECJ, but it has to be something. That is, if we want to ensure that existing rights are protected.
The Supreme Court of the UK seems like a good place to start.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Just bloody name them then.
This one is quite an interesting one. In response to TSE commenting:
"Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy."
one poster commented as follows:
"It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to."
My word you've copied and filed posts?
No idea who wrote that but I'd suggest you have issues.
No, I've not filed posts. Words on the internet are easy to find when you know where they're stored. When people are vehemently denying that they've ever held a particular view, it's always useful to be able to double-check your recollection.
To what end?
Somebody posted a view, people express views all day everyday. To spend time attempting to prove them wrong suggests issues with inadequacy.
The internet has spawned a whole bunch of weirdos.
To what end? To show that far too many Leavers are self-deceiving and backwards-rationalising.
The exercise took me approximately 5 minutes.
I'm sorry that you seem to think that it is somehow inappropriate to remind people of aggressively-expressed views that they have done 180 degree turns on.
I'm sorry that you're sorry, the bottom line is we voted to Leave and no amount of googling or whataboutery is going to change that. C & P all day, show that somebody said something that proved incorrect, bang the keyboard as hard as you like, its done mate, finished.
What is absolutely obvious is that you lost and were proven wrong, you sound like a bloke who's girlfriend ran off with his best friend and you want to tell everyone what a prick he is. The point is she preferred the prick to you.
I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
Just bloody name them then.
This one is quite an interesting one. In response to TSE commenting:
"Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy."
one poster commented as follows:
"It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to."
My word you've copied and filed posts?
No idea who wrote that but I'd suggest you have issues.
No, I've not filed posts. Words on the internet are easy to find when you know where they're stored. When people are vehemently denying that they've ever held a particular view, it's always useful to be able to double-check your recollection.
To what end?
Somebody posted a view, people express views all day everyday. To spend time attempting to prove them wrong suggests issues with inadequacy.
The internet has spawned a whole bunch of weirdos.
To what end? To show that far too many Leavers are self-deceiving and backwards-rationalising.
The exercise took me approximately 5 minutes.
I'm sorry that you seem to think that it is somehow inappropriate to remind people of aggressively-expressed views that they have done 180 degree turns on.
It may or may not be appropriate but it is mind-numbingly tedious.
A theoretical question - you've been egged on by your mates and after repeatedly turning up at his house with graffiti can in hand you've cast aspersions on his mother. Suddenly after some brash overconfidence and goading you find yourself gloves laced up in the ring and he sits across from you, Anthony Joshua. What do you do ;p ?
F1: as we're discussing (with Le Pen) double-backing things, you can back both Vettel and Hamilton at a little over evens (2.2) for the title on Betfair.
You'd need quite a wodge to make it worthwhile, though.
Hard to see anyone else winning.
Also, long ago but I did top Bottas each way at 25 for the title (which then meant top 3 at a fifth the odds). There's some available, if you want it, to lay him for top 3 at 1.79 on Betfair. Not interested myself, but thought it worth mentioning (I'm also green if Raikkonen is top three).
Edited extra bit: sorry, think it was 26 (25/1). And tip*.
Bottas top 3 at 5/1 sounds pretty reasonable, where's that bet?
Comments
Even Jezza can cock-up on a grand scale without problems. It's when he puts together a coherent sentence that we're surprised. If Labour stick to announcing popular policies, they'll at least stop the rot. We assume they'll be un-costed and dependent on the Magic Money Tree, but they'll sound good.
The upshot of this disaster is that people may only remember a pledge to put more plod on the beat.
If we walk, no deal/no payment/nada then in a few years' time both sides are likely to conclude that not trading 100% free and having WTO tariffs is not in either side's interest - and then we might get a deal. But we'll have avoided a joke settlement up front.
Is a seat where a progressive alliance could win it for the Yellow Peril.
As for the terrible negotiations - they haven't even sat down yet.
Personally, if I were an EU citizen I would be a lot happier with my rights being overseen by UK courts than the jokers at the ECJ, who have to phone around EU leaders to find out what decision they are meant to make.
and No it won't happen. They will benefit too much from Brexit and staying in themselves.
Yes, I was aware I was taking a bit of a liberte avec la verite. I should know better. You can get away with that type of thing in the dead tree press but not on PB. The readership is smarter. There is a sort of substantive truth about the comparison perhaps, but basically 'guilty as charged'.
As for the 2000 Guineas, my pin has a better idea than me. I may be going however, so will note down your typically informed views.
See you there?
And after paying it what happens if the EU then says it wants more - do you pay the new demand as well ?
And if you pay the new demand what happens if the EU then says it wants more - do you pay that demand as well ?
And on and on and on.
(Ireland is) making a strong case at EU level that the UK’s withdrawal represents a serious disturbance to the Irish economy overall and that we will require support;
If Le Pen goes for the jugular tonight and does really well, then she still has a chance. Not saying that it is likely to happen, but mention it as a warning to those who are tempted to pile in on Macron at heavy odds on.
'Listen, and understand. That Project is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are assimilated.'
Who thought it would be a doddle? Negotiating with a bunch of control freaks will always be difficult. And the fact that they are control freaks is why they will march on confident in their ultimate goal of a united European country.
It's why they will allow no compromise, and why many of us voted to Leave. Hasn't seeing their true colours made you just a little cautious. Do you really want to be locked into their madcap ambitions?
Free your mind, Mr Meeks, join the Brexit revolution.
https://markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/401f919f6c1d457da2583b305303ac58
https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/02/forecasting-english-local-election-seat-gainslosses-2017/#more-1994
Especially when compared with the corresponding projections by Rallings & Thrasher:
Party ........... Fisher ........ R&T
Con ............. +430 ..... +115
Lab .............. -315 ....... -75
LibDem ......... -30 ....... +85
Although as Dr Fisher himself says, these are more for curiosity value than to be taken very seriously. In which case, why bother to publish them?
As we do some companies will find it beneficial to have a nearby English speaking area within the EU to relocate some of their offices.
If you believe the French polls are close to reality (as they clearly were for the first round) there are very good odds on Betfair for the vote shares by candidate.
As all polls now converge on 60/40, you can cover both the Le Pen 35 to 40 (3.05) and the 40 to 45 (2.65) and you are guaranteed a much better return than the 1.11 on Macron winning.
You may think she can have a great debate tonight and reach 45+ or than she will collapse under 35 in the last three days but I don't see it.
One of the members asked about the apparent reduction in beat patrols. Apparently the former Home Secretary (her name escapes me) issued an edict that motorised patrolling with officers in cars and vans was more cost effective than walking patrols.
It's just a thought but sometimes the cheapest most cost-effective thing isn't always the best thing. Public sector outsourcing is one example - I would argue the cost of having more Police out and about on foot is more than offset by public confidence and goodwill. It's a good Labour policy (and Conservatives have argued for it as well, oddly enough, when Labour were in Government).
You can't always allow the bottom line to dictate public policy - people are willing to pay extra for some things and I would argue people would pay a little extra for a more visible traditional police presence (and that includes re-opening local stations).
Macron 24 Le Pen 21.5 Fillon 20 Mélenchon 19.5 Hamon 7 Dupont Aignan 4
Andthe results were:
Macron 24.01 Le Pen 21.3 Fillon 20.01 Mélenchon 19.58 Hamon 6.36 Dupont 4.7
Their last second round poll is Macron 59 / Le Pen 41.
Good tip now, assuming the debate (as per Mr. G's post) doesn't go wonky for Macron.
https://www.oddschecker.com/insight/politics/20170502-liberal-democrats-general-election-hopes-take-another-hit-following-piers-morgan-grilling
The odds of the Lib Dems occupying the most seats at the next election now range from 25/1 all the way out to 100/1.
Amazing, its not a 100-1 chance, it's not even a 1000-1 chance. It is much, much much more odds against.
This is why the continuity Remainers are strategically disgraceful: I want UKIP dead and buried. They should too. The only way to achieve that is with a decent Leave.
"Mr Meeks, any form of negotiations has to be set against the backdrop of who has most to gain and lose. In these international negotiations the larger trading partners within the EU rely on us to buy more of their goods than the figure we have to sell to them. Can Germany afford disruption in one of its biggest european purchasers of its goods at this time of economic low/no growth? The answer is no and that applies to the key EU countries. Because of this and other factors, deals can be done and we have cash and influence that can lubricate the process. We are no longer the sick man of Europe that we were in the 1970s."
"The trade deals he [Mr Meeks] highlights were negotiated from scratch to create new trading rules and terms. Most of the deals required post-Brexit will be a reformulation of existing rules and terms simply to acknowledge the UK's new status outside the EU."
"If the Eurocrats want certainty in their dealings with us, they will rapidly make a deal. Or else, people might see that the Earth doesn't stop spinning without a trade deal and think "what was all the fuss about?" And that would NEVER do in the Eurocrat mentality. I mean, people might query their WORTH! Heavens to Betsy...."
I could go on.
We'll pay an agreed exit fee, do most of what the EU wants and agree an extension on current terms and payments. Why wouldn't we? Even if we crashed out, at some point we will want to do business with the continent we are part of, which means going through the EU. They won't have forgotten about the money. We will pay it, do the other stuff and get on with our lives.
We're seeing the Kuebler-Ross stages of grief that Leavers gleefully accused Remainers of after the referendum, but this time applying to them. Having denied the effects of Brexit, they are now angry about them. Most will eventually accept Brexit in all its compromised mediocrity.
The east-west split of France is fascinating and I wonder why it happened - demographics, economics, history, culture must have had a part. Macron won very big in parts of Brittany and the Loire. Don't know.
I won't be on the "blasted Heath" on Saturday as I have to visit Mr Stodge Senior. The Jockey Club Stakes is always an informative race as well.
I didn't go but I thought the racing at Punchestown surpassed Cheltenham this year and was some of the best jumps racing I have seen for years in terms of close finishes. I'm trying to persuade my friend who owns a hunter chaser to have a crack at the La Touche next year so we can go over.
These are useful numbers by Fisher, he is testing an (unlikely) hypothesis.
Betting on the odds against option (whichever party it is) is usually the value option in LibDem targets and marginals.
Those who like 'my way or the highway', control freaks, one solution only connectivity, Apple and nothing else, closed source, incompatibility, high cost, you don't get to decide shit because we know best - Apple, socialists, Labour, command economies, nannies, people who want to extend your 'rights' by telling what the fuck to do. Or else.
The 40-45% band is also available for 2.62 as a cover, for an average of 1.455 assuming the same stakes on both bets.
A pretty much nailed on 45.5% return in three days, unless I'm missing something?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.131228414
There in that statement is the EU directly trying to interfere in the UK election. Sadly they do not realise that this is playing into TM's hand.
For those on here who think the EU is united todays debate shows there is a lot of concern about the tone and the need to secure citizens rights. Verfhofstadt says that the exit bill will be negotiated and does not mention a figure. It looks like they may agree that independent arbitration will be needed
Edit to add: are you remembering your Betfair commission?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/859653141037494273
To paraphrase Dan Hannan, it's possible to like Europe but dislike the EU, in the same way it's possible to like football but dislike FIFA.
Negotiating with someone who will move nearly far enough to tempt you is difficult. You may tango.
Negotiating with someone who concedes your points is easy. You skip away.
Negotiating with the EU is difficult, as they have various 'masters'
EU parliament, Commissioners, National heads of state. Knowing who will veto or change any product of the negotiation makes it an impossible negotiating partner, as the negotiators can't actually negotiate without additional levels of opaque approval.
@KateEMcCann: Interesting that Labour's rebuttal doc refutes a number of pledges, including that it will reverse arts cuts.It won… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/859689012898017280
"Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy."
one poster commented as follows:
"It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to."
I have to say, I think this is unlikely, However, I felt it important to point out that we do have a TV debate tonight, as it had not been mentioned previously on this thread, and did not want people piling in at 1.11 thinking it was free money.
I shall be pleased if the Spanish Grand Prix goes as well (I also got a much more insightful, and less fluky, bet on Ricciardo at about 8 or 9 right too).
Now its 100 billion! Who did they get to work that out? Diane Abbott?
But we wouldn't - because PM is top of chain of command and Jezza has said he would not.
Every vote needs to know this.
Yes, it is fascinating. I know the Aude region down past Carcassonne best of all and have friends there. They're pretty attuned to the local politics. Melenchon goes down well there, and Le Pen does quite well, but they're not expecting her to improve much on the 40% she is currently recording.
It's one of the great omissions of my life that I have never been racing in Ireland, so if you are looking to fill up a mini-bus...... We could get the ferry to Rosslare and drive down to Cork. We might never come back. Sigh.
No idea who wrote that but I'd suggest you have issues.
One down.
I'm already stressed about tonight as it is for TP without gambling on it.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/03/free-software-reveal-facebook-election-posts-targeted-chrome-extension
Good luck to them.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/859669876331491330
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/859694841286062080
You'd need quite a wodge to make it worthwhile, though.
Hard to see anyone else winning.
Also, long ago but I did top Bottas each way at 25 for the title (which then meant top 3 at a fifth the odds). There's some available, if you want it, to lay him for top 3 at 1.79 on Betfair. Not interested myself, but thought it worth mentioning (I'm also green if Raikkonen is top three).
Edited extra bit: sorry, think it was 26 (25/1). And tip*.
More importantly UK-EU trade would not stop in the case of diamond Brexit because WTO rules prevent discriminatory tariffs. It would be bad news for our car industry because supply chains cross the channel multiple times, and it wouldn't be great for financial services.
But it wouldn't be the end of the world for either us or the Eurozone.
The risk for us would be if we were already moving into a recession (for the reasons I have explained too many times already), in which case it could be extremely painful.
Somebody posted a view, people express views all day everyday. To spend time attempting to prove them wrong suggests issues with inadequacy.
The internet has spawned a whole bunch of weirdos.
I thought you were a Lib, lets be honest in general not many people get into that level of detail and no one seriously expects the Libs to have to worry about paying for stuff.
The exercise took me approximately 5 minutes.
I'm sorry that you seem to think that it is somehow inappropriate to remind people of aggressively-expressed views that they have done 180 degree turns on.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/02/world/europe/london-tabloids-brexit.html?smid=tw-share&_r=3
What is absolutely obvious is that you lost and were proven wrong, you sound like a bloke who's girlfriend ran off with his best friend and you want to tell everyone what a prick he is. The point is she preferred the prick to you.
Is fundamentally bollocks to start with.
We will have access. The issue for negotiation is it's form.
Richard will be along to take his own bow in a moment.
What do you do ;p ?