(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago More Could a pollster speculate on why polls show Labour at 2015 levels, when that runs counter to everything we're hearing from the ground?
Exactly as we have been asking on here.
Most polls were showing Labour a bit higher in 2015, around 32-34%.
However, let's assume for the sake of argument that Labour win 30%, and I'll make a stab at an explanation:-
1. Labour's vote is holding steady or increasing in left wing areas that voted Remain.
2. Labour's vote share is holding steady or increasing in Conservative areas that voted Remain.
3. UKIP's vote share has plummeted, and some of those voters have gone over to Labour. But, they're far outnumbered by those that are going to the Conservatives.
4. Labour's vote share is falling badly in Labour seats that voted Leave, and UKIP voters in those seats are switching very strongly to the Conservatives.
"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."? But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.
They can just treat their diabetes or heart disease with Milk of Sovereignty and Tincture of Control.
Not sure if this has been posted already but does this count as an anecdote alert?
65 year old confronts Tim Farron, declares he knew what he was voting for last year, says 'I hope you only get 6 seats this time' (me too - I took the 10/1 on BF Sportsbook!) - says he has always voted Labour but for the first time will be voting Theresa May.
I have a hundred quid on Labour < 150 seats, was thinking about cashing out for a slight profit, stuff like this makes me less sure.
Indeed. Then Tim declared he was pleased to meet real people unlike TM. It was all rather silly but crammed full of anecdotal goodness.
It's the way the guy says "I hope you get six seats this time" that makes me think he's actually quite well informed. We often say that people don't pay much attention to politics outside our little bubble but I reckon a lot of the general public is better informed than we think.
Or maybe he's a PB regular and he's bet heavily on the Lib Dems getting < 11 seats this time around and he's just trying to talk up his book
Con gain Westmorland and Lonsdale!
Which after various attempts at electoral decapitation by progressives would cause a wry smile to enlighten the faces of the cynics of the world.
Sir Lynton thought the seat was winnable in 2015 but its remoteness precluded sending any resources to the seat.
Yes, I can see how that would have sent the constituency spending over the limit. That wouldn't do at all.
Not sure if this has been posted already but does this count as an anecdote alert?
65 year old confronts Tim Farron, declares he knew what he was voting for last year, says 'I hope you only get 6 seats this time' (me too - I took the 10/1 on BF Sportsbook!) - says he has always voted Labour but for the first time will be voting Theresa May.
I have a hundred quid on Labour < 150 seats, was thinking about cashing out for a slight profit, stuff like this makes me less sure.
Indeed. Then Tim declared he was pleased to meet real people unlike TM. It was all rather silly but crammed full of anecdotal goodness.
It's the way the guy says "I hope you get six seats this time" that makes me think he's actually quite well informed. We often say that people don't pay much attention to politics outside our little bubble but I reckon a lot of the general public is better informed than we think.
Or maybe he's a PB regular and he's bet heavily on the Lib Dems getting < 11 seats this time around and he's just trying to talk up his book
Con gain Westmorland and Lonsdale!
Which after various attempts at electoral decapitation by progressives would cause a wry smile to enlighten the faces of the cynics of the world.
Sir Lynton thought the seat was winnable in 2015 but its remoteness precluded sending any resources to the seat.
Yes, I can see how that would have sent the constituency spending over the limit. That wouldn't do at all.
"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."? But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.
They can just treat their diabetes or heart disease with Milk of Sovereignty and Tincture of Control.
So the whole health tourism argument was actually errm...... backwards...
"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."? But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.
They can just treat their diabetes or heart disease with Milk of Sovereignty and Tincture of Control.
So the whole health tourism argument was actually errm...... backwards...
iirc someone posted on here the other day news that pensioners had started returning from Spain and the local property market has become frozen in the costas?
Not sure if this has been posted already but does this count as an anecdote alert?
65 year old confronts Tim Farron, declares he knew what he was voting for last year, says 'I hope you only get 6 seats this time' (me too - I took the 10/1 on BF Sportsbook!) - says he has always voted Labour but for the first time will be voting Theresa May.
I have a hundred quid on Labour < 150 seats, was thinking about cashing out for a slight profit, stuff like this makes me less sure.
Indeed. Then Tim declared he was pleased to meet real people unlike TM. It was all rather silly but crammed full of anecdotal goodness.
It's the way the guy says "I hope you get six seats this time" that makes me think he's actually quite well informed. We often say that people don't pay much attention to politics outside our little bubble but I reckon a lot of the general public is better informed than we think.
Or maybe he's a PB regular and he's bet heavily on the Lib Dems getting < 11 seats this time around and he's just trying to talk up his book
Calling Daily Mail front page graphics guy - you are needed urgently.
Corbyn's playing a dangerous game, how many homes in London are worth £500K or more?
Probably about 80% of them at least.
Last year most property sales in London involved flats which sold for on average £504,048. Terraced properties sold for an average price of £640,271, while semi-detached properties fetched £629,610.
"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."? But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.
They can just treat their diabetes or heart disease with Milk of Sovereignty and Tincture of Control.
So the whole health tourism argument was actually errm...... backwards...
iirc someone posted on here the other day news that pensioners had started returning from Spain and the local property market has become frozen in the costas?
Oh Jesus higher house prices here too. Just what the McBubble UK economy needs...
Calling Daily Mail front page graphics guy - you are needed urgently.
Corbyn's playing a dangerous game, how many homes in London are worth £500K or more?
Probably about 80% of them at least.
Last year most property sales in London involved flats which sold for on average £504,048. Terraced properties sold for an average price of £640,271, while semi-detached properties fetched £629,610.
Calling Daily Mail front page graphics guy - you are needed urgently.
Corbyn's playing a dangerous game, how many homes in London are worth £500K or more?
Probably about 80% of them at least.
Last year most property sales in London involved flats which sold for on average £504,048. Terraced properties sold for an average price of £640,271, while semi-detached properties fetched £629,610.
"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."? But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.
They can just treat their diabetes or heart disease with Milk of Sovereignty and Tincture of Control.
So the whole health tourism argument was actually errm...... backwards...
iirc someone posted on here the other day news that pensioners had started returning from Spain and the local property market has become frozen in the costas?
This analysis suggests that British demand in Spain is largely driven by sterling:
"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."? But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.
They can just treat their diabetes or heart disease with Milk of Sovereignty and Tincture of Control.
So the whole health tourism argument was actually errm...... backwards...
iirc someone posted on here the other day news that pensioners had started returning from Spain and the local property market has become frozen in the costas?
This analysis suggests that British demand in Spain is largely driven by sterling:
well, probably not 511. No point in filming tail head head head head etc
That is why I said most were a lot shorter - half of them (approximately) would be TH (cut) or HT (cut). Of course it could have been a double-headed coin switched with sleight of hand.
They showed how they did it....they simply turned the camera on and filmed all day....
It is like those crazy trick shots that go viral, the ones that aren't CGI are simply a reasonably skilled individual try, try, try, try, try, try, and continue trying.
Not sure if this has been posted already but does this count as an anecdote alert?
65 year old confronts Tim Farron, declares he knew what he was voting for last year, says 'I hope you only get 6 seats this time' (me too - I took the 10/1 on BF Sportsbook!) - says he has always voted Labour but for the first time will be voting Theresa May.
I have a hundred quid on Labour < 150 seats, was thinking about cashing out for a slight profit, stuff like this makes me less sure.
Indeed. Then Tim declared he was pleased to meet real people unlike TM. It was all rather silly but crammed full of anecdotal goodness.
It's the way the guy says "I hope you get six seats this time" that makes me think he's actually quite well informed. We often say that people don't pay much attention to politics outside our little bubble but I reckon a lot of the general public is better informed than we think.
Or maybe he's a PB regular and he's bet heavily on the Lib Dems getting < 11 seats this time around and he's just trying to talk up his book
Does anyone know how many elections post 1945 have had Labour do better than the polls suggested? Excluding elections such as 2010 or 1983 which saw a polling surge of a third party. I am under the impression that Labour have been overestimated in the polls at nearly every other election, whether they were on the winning side or not (even 1997 was several points out).
In other words, can we practically assume that there will be overestimation of Labour in these polls compared to the final result, given that there is no surging 3rd party this time round? When we see a new poll perhaps we should just knock 2 off Labour and add 2 to the Tories to get a true picture of what's happening.
I think this blog post provides what you're looking for:
Thank you! An interesting read. It seems like a 1983 election may be what Labour are hoping for in some ways. I had thought 1983 was a case of Lib overestimation and Lab underestimation but actually it was a rare case of Con overestimation and Lab and Lib underestimation.
A bit more on topic, would Macron be a bit of a boiteux canard president if he has no party to support him and no significant number of elected representatives?
I think everyone should note that we have at the moment not decided on the rules of the Game of Brexit. The EU are basically trying to get us to go past working out the rules and into playing their version. Sort of like "The art of the deal" - advance your position so the opponents then negotiate on your terms.
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago More Could a pollster speculate on why polls show Labour at 2015 levels, when that runs counter to everything we're hearing from the ground?
Exactly as we have been asking on here.
The polls are all showing Labour doing better in the South, though still >25% behind the Tories.
The numbers are flakey as hell though - under 35s, students, BAME, did not votes - and all expressing low certainty to vote.
And, remember, the Standard's new editor has introduced a second edition for precisely this reason. Let's see what the afternoon edition front page looks like.
The IHT move will probably only serve to alienate labourites in areas where the Tories are strongest, which might change little in seat numbers but knock back the overall %. The exception is London of course where as we see from mansion tax, such an idea is, ummmmmmmm, 'brave'
Calling Daily Mail front page graphics guy - you are needed urgently.
Labour the party of anti-aspiration....
FFS - London is the only area South-East of the Tees-Exe line (or, more appropriately - the Tees-Bristol-Channel line) where Labour might win any seats
Q: If Theresa May wins the election with a big majority, will that weaken your hand?
Barnier says he will not comment on UK domestic politics.
The only thing he can say is that a new government will last for five years, which is not the case for the current government. That is an important point, he says.
He says the negotiations will take 16 months. He hopes to get an agreement
Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
Far too early to say that in that Labour fell back sharply in the last week or so of the 1983 campaign. At the moment,however, given Labour's collapse in Scotland - which has knocked 2% off their GB vote share - Labour appear to be performing better in England & Wales than in 1983 and 2010 and at a level similar to 1987.
I've been trying find the source of the quoted €100bn exit fee.
It appears to be an estimate by the FT, - not from the EU itself.
It is a gross payment of up to €100bn, according to Financial Times analysis.
It goes on to say "Estimates of the Brexit bill are highly variable because they include assumptions on Britain’s exit date, its proper share of contributions, UK receipts such as its budget rebate or EU investment spending, and the type of liabilities it is expected to honour."
So, depending on your assumptions, you can make it add up to any number.
I remember George Osborne falsely claiming to halve an EU bill:
Watch out for the claim that the Government have managed to halve our exit bill from €100bn to €50bn, saving the taxpayer €50bn, which can be spent on the NHS.
"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."? But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.
Do they get 'free' health care - or is it reimbursed by the NHS (aka 'UK Tax payers'?)
I think it is reimbursed - any agreement that stopped it would cause great problems for many.
"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."? But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.
Do they get 'free' health care - or is it reimbursed by the NHS (aka 'UK Tax payers'?)
I think it is reimbursed - any agreement that stopped it would cause great problems for many.
Q: If Theresa May wins the election with a big majority, will that weaken your hand?
Barnier says he will not comment on UK domestic politics.
The only thing he can say is that a new government will last for five years, which is not the case for the current government. That is an important point, he says.
He says the negotiations will take 16 months. He hopes to get an agreement
I've been trying find the source of the quoted €100bn exit fee.
It appears to be an estimate by the FT, - not from the EU itself.
It is a gross payment of up to €100bn, according to Financial Times analysis.
It goes on to say "Estimates of the Brexit bill are highly variable because they include assumptions on Britain’s exit date, its proper share of contributions, UK receipts such as its budget rebate or EU investment spending, and the type of liabilities it is expected to honour."
So, depending on your assumptions, you can make it add up to any number.
I remember George Osborne falsely claiming to halve an EU bill:
Watch out for the claim that the Government have managed to halve our exit bill from €100bn to €50bn, saving the taxpayer €50bn, which can be spent on the NHS.
The EU have definitely quoted a £60bn bill before which is 70€bn or something.
I wonder how the mansion tax will go down in the key marginal for Labour, Bristol West, the West Country Islington....all them houses in Clifton are worth a load more than £400k.
I've been trying find the source of the quoted €100bn exit fee.
It appears to be an estimate by the FT, - not from the EU itself.
It is a gross payment of up to €100bn, according to Financial Times analysis.
It goes on to say "Estimates of the Brexit bill are highly variable because they include assumptions on Britain’s exit date, its proper share of contributions, UK receipts such as its budget rebate or EU investment spending, and the type of liabilities it is expected to honour."
So, depending on your assumptions, you can make it add up to any number.
I remember George Osborne falsely claiming to halve an EU bill:
Watch out for the claim that the Government have managed to halve our exit bill from €100bn to €50bn, saving the taxpayer €50bn, which can be spent on the NHS.
Does anyone know how many elections post 1945 have had Labour do better than the polls suggested? Excluding elections such as 2010 or 1983 which saw a polling surge of a third party. I am under the impression that Labour have been overestimated in the polls at nearly every other election, whether they were on the winning side or not (even 1997 was several points out).
In other words, can we practically assume that there will be overestimation of Labour in these polls compared to the final result, given that there is no surging 3rd party this time round? When we see a new poll perhaps we should just knock 2 off Labour and add 2 to the Tories to get a true picture of what's happening.
Labour vote was underestimated in 2010 - 1983 - and February 1974. In 1964 its vote share was close to eve of poll predictions. Since World War 2 there has been a clear tendency for massive poll leads not to fully materialise in the Ballot Box - as reflected in results from -2001 - 1997 - 1983 - and 1966.
Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
Don't think so. Tories and press have barely warmed up yet. Wait until locals are out of the way.
It all seems crazy, but fact is Labour are holding up just fine - ok, they are in bad position, very bad, but it isn't getting any worse, and in fact has ticked up since the start of the campaign, so it seems pretty plausible in vote share they will beat Foot's score. Yes, there's hard hitting Tory attacks to come, but if people are coming back out of fear of a Tory landslide, those attacks won't turn them away again. They were people who were not previously saying Labour, so already turned off by Corbyn and co, who came back because the think they need to limit the damage. No bad news is going to change that by more than MOE.
"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."? But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.
They can just treat their diabetes or heart disease with Milk of Sovereignty and Tincture of Control.
So the whole health tourism argument was actually errm...... backwards...
No - the host country bills the guest country. Britain pays the bill. A good deal in Spain where healthcare costs are lower than in the UK
My idea for IHT would be to scrap it, but force the value of the estate inherited to be added into the inheritor's pension pot, and then simply subject to those rules.
"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."? But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.
They can just treat their diabetes or heart disease with Milk of Sovereignty and Tincture of Control.
So the whole health tourism argument was actually errm...... backwards...
iirc someone posted on here the other day news that pensioners had started returning from Spain and the local property market has become frozen in the costas?
This analysis suggests that British demand in Spain is largely driven by sterling:
Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
Far too early to say that in that Labour fell back sharply in the last week or so of the 1983 campaign. At the moment,however, given Labour's collapse in Scotland - which has knocked 2% off their GB vote share - Labour appear to be performing better in England & Wales than in 1983 and 2010 and at a level similar to 1987.
I find it hard to beleive that Corbyn is doing 'better' than Gordon Brown in E+W.
I've been trying find the source of the quoted €100bn exit fee.
It appears to be an estimate by the FT, - not from the EU itself.
It is a gross payment of up to €100bn, according to Financial Times analysis.
It goes on to say "Estimates of the Brexit bill are highly variable because they include assumptions on Britain’s exit date, its proper share of contributions, UK receipts such as its budget rebate or EU investment spending, and the type of liabilities it is expected to honour."
So, depending on your assumptions, you can make it add up to any number.
I remember George Osborne falsely claiming to halve an EU bill:
Watch out for the claim that the Government have managed to halve our exit bill from €100bn to €50bn, saving the taxpayer €50bn, which can be spent on the NHS.
The EU have definitely quoted a £60bn bill before which is 70€bn or something.
Surely what is more relevant is that the EU has provided no detailed rationale or calculations underpinning their figures. Until they do, any figures being floated should just be ignored so as to avoid anchoring.
My idea for IHT would be to scrap it, but force the value of the estate inherited to be added into the inheritor's pension pot, and then simply subject to those rules.
So it gets taxed at income tax levels? Good luck with that (although I asumme you could get 25% of the balance tax free?).
But that would increase the tax on smaller estates, and potentially reduce it on bigger ones.....
Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
Far too early to say that in that Labour fell back sharply in the last week or so of the 1983 campaign. At the moment,however, given Labour's collapse in Scotland - which has knocked 2% off their GB vote share - Labour appear to be performing better in England & Wales than in 1983 and 2010 and at a level similar to 1987.
I find it hard to beleive that Corbyn is doing 'better' than Gordon Brown in E+W.
Probably explained by a much lower LD vote than in 2010.
Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
Far too early to say that in that Labour fell back sharply in the last week or so of the 1983 campaign. At the moment,however, given Labour's collapse in Scotland - which has knocked 2% off their GB vote share - Labour appear to be performing better in England & Wales than in 1983 and 2010 and at a level similar to 1987.
I find it hard to beleive that Corbyn is doing 'better' than Gordon Brown in E+W.
We all do, and yet here we are - either the polls are just plain wrong (possibly with more than the Lab score) and Lab are not doing as badly as it seems on the ground, or they are becoming even more inefficient, and are rising in some areas and dropping heavily in others. As Justin says, that the LDs appear to be much much lower than 2010 also has an effect.
"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."? But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.
Do they get 'free' health care - or is it reimbursed by the NHS (aka 'UK Tax payers'?)
I think it is reimbursed - any agreement that stopped it would cause great problems for many.
Are you able to vote in this GE ?
Yes - provided you've not been away in excess of 15 years and there are plnas to abolish that limitation. One odd side-efect of Brexit is that I will lose my existing right to vote for MEps both in Spain AND in the UK :0
My idea for IHT would be to scrap it, but force the value of the estate inherited to be added into the inheritor's pension pot, and then simply subject to those rules.
So it gets taxed at income tax levels? Good luck with that (although I asumme you could get 25% of the balance tax free?).
But that would increase the tax on smaller estates, and potentially reduce it on bigger ones.....
@rcs1000 Suggested it being taxed simply as income, but its a one off hit - my idea spreads it over a longer time period - which I think is fairer :> Also might help care costs of the inheritor (We're all living longer) rather than getting it all in one go.
Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
Far too early to say that in that Labour fell back sharply in the last week or so of the 1983 campaign. At the moment,however, given Labour's collapse in Scotland - which has knocked 2% off their GB vote share - Labour appear to be performing better in England & Wales than in 1983 and 2010 and at a level similar to 1987.
I find it hard to beleive that Corbyn is doing 'better' than Gordon Brown in E+W.
We all do, and yet here we are - either the polls are just plain wrong (possibly with more than the Lab score) and Lab are not doing as badly as it seems on the ground, or they are becoming even more inefficient, and are rising in some areas and dropping heavily in others. As Justin says, that the LDs appear to be much much lower than 2010 also has an effect.
Also some evidence that the Green vote is down compared with 2015.
Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
Far too early to say that in that Labour fell back sharply in the last week or so of the 1983 campaign. At the moment,however, given Labour's collapse in Scotland - which has knocked 2% off their GB vote share - Labour appear to be performing better in England & Wales than in 1983 and 2010 and at a level similar to 1987.
I find it hard to beleive that Corbyn is doing 'better' than Gordon Brown in E+W.
Probably explained by a much lower LD vote than in 2010.
I think we should all focus a lot more on the absolute number of votes we think each party might get and a bit less on the share.
I've been trying find the source of the quoted €100bn exit fee.
It appears to be an estimate by the FT, - not from the EU itself.
It is a gross payment of up to €100bn, according to Financial Times analysis.
It goes on to say "Estimates of the Brexit bill are highly variable because they include assumptions on Britain’s exit date, its proper share of contributions, UK receipts such as its budget rebate or EU investment spending, and the type of liabilities it is expected to honour."
So, depending on your assumptions, you can make it add up to any number.
I remember George Osborne falsely claiming to halve an EU bill:
Watch out for the claim that the Government have managed to halve our exit bill from €100bn to €50bn, saving the taxpayer €50bn, which can be spent on the NHS.
The EU have definitely quoted a £60bn bill before which is 70€bn or something.
No. The EU quoted a €60bn bill which is roughly £50bn.
This includes our contributions up to 2020. As we will be staying until at least March 2019, most of that will be paid as our normal contribution. The issue will be the remaining €15bn still outstanding. But if there is a transitional period, which there will be, this will part cover it.
The whole thing is theatre to first anger the voters and then impress them with substantial spurious reductions. It doesn't fool me.
Does anyone know how many elections post 1945 have had Labour do better than the polls suggested? Excluding elections such as 2010 or 1983 which saw a polling surge of a third party. I am under the impression that Labour have been overestimated in the polls at nearly every other election, whether they were on the winning side or not (even 1997 was several points out).
In other words, can we practically assume that there will be overestimation of Labour in these polls compared to the final result, given that there is no surging 3rd party this time round? When we see a new poll perhaps we should just knock 2 off Labour and add 2 to the Tories to get a true picture of what's happening.
Labour vote was underestimated in 2010 - 1983 - and February 1974. In 1964 its vote share was close to eve of poll predictions. Since World War 2 there has been a clear tendency for massive poll leads not to fully materialise in the Ballot Box - as reflected in results from -2001 - 1997 - 1983 - and 1966.
I suspect it may be difficult to make sensible comparisons for this election. The polls are certain to be wrong to some extent if UKIP/Greens don't stand in a significant number of constituencies. I don't think the polls check for 'Do you know whether there is a UKIP candidate standing in your constituency?' and, if they did, I'm not sure many respondents (outside of here) would know for certain. As a result I expect the polls will overstate UKIP and understate Lab/Con/Lib.
It also begs the question; what will happen to those voters who turn up to vote UKIP/Green and find there's no candidate? A big increase in spoilt ballots?
Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
Far too early to say that in that Labour fell back sharply in the last week or so of the 1983 campaign. At the moment,however, given Labour's collapse in Scotland - which has knocked 2% off their GB vote share - Labour appear to be performing better in England & Wales than in 1983 and 2010 and at a level similar to 1987.
I find it hard to beleive that Corbyn is doing 'better' than Gordon Brown in E+W.
Probably explained by a much lower LD vote than in 2010.
I think we should all focus a lot more on the absolute number of votes we think each party might get and a bit less on the share.
The whole thing is theatre to first anger the voters and then impress them with substantial spurious reductions. It doesn't fool me.
Since you're the only who isn't fooled, could you explain the theatrics of EU27 talking up the amount initially and then angering their own voters, but impressing UK voters, by failing to get anything like it?
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago More Could a pollster speculate on why polls show Labour at 2015 levels, when that runs counter to everything we're hearing from the ground?
Exactly as we have been asking on here.
The supplementals are horrific for Labour, making 2015 look like roses and buttercups.
Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
Far too early to say that in that Labour fell back sharply in the last week or so of the 1983 campaign. At the moment,however, given Labour's collapse in Scotland - which has knocked 2% off their GB vote share - Labour appear to be performing better in England & Wales than in 1983 and 2010 and at a level similar to 1987.
I find it hard to beleive that Corbyn is doing 'better' than Gordon Brown in E+W.
Probably explained by a much lower LD vote than in 2010.
I think we should all focus a lot more on the absolute number of votes we think each party might get and a bit less on the share.
7 million for Corbyn maybe ?
That would indeed be possible. I think the Tories may exceed their 1992 record and get over 14 million.
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago More Could a pollster speculate on why polls show Labour at 2015 levels, when that runs counter to everything we're hearing from the ground?
Exactly as we have been asking on here.
The supplementals are horrific for Labour, making 2015 look like roses and buttercups.
Did people head out and vote Tory/Labour in the 2015 GE in Scotland to stop the "SNP landslide" ?
Yes, that's the key. What you're watching is the last minute of a nine hour tape.
The whole show that is taken from is really good. And incredibly approachable presentation on probabilistic fallacies and survivorship bias in an entertainingly packaged form.
Selecting a novice hurdles race for the second last race was a touch of genius.
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago More Could a pollster speculate on why polls show Labour at 2015 levels, when that runs counter to everything we're hearing from the ground?
Exactly as we have been asking on here.
The supplementals are horrific for Labour, making 2015 look like roses and buttercups.
Did people head out and vote Tory/Labour in the 2015 GE in Scotland to stop the "SNP landslide" ?
There was certainly massive turnout. Even as the Tories slumped to their worst ever vote share in Scotland ever they did add lots of voters in absolute terms.
The big issue with the EU bill is the reste a liquider money.
This is the one that will generate the 'F....off and cut your cloth' response from us.
Yeah, it's like a hooker demanding a payment from a regular punter who's decided to stop using her services, to compensate her for lost future revenue.
ITV announces a #GE2017 leaders' debate for Thursday May 18, says Theresa May will be invited. #MirrorChicken
Jezza said he ain't doing these either. So it is Tiny Tim, Prof Walter Mitty and ?
Lord Emperor, PhD, MSc, Sir, Baron, King, First Admiral of the Fleet, Knight Commander, General His holiness, his excellency Baron Nuttall might just be there.
The big issue with the EU bill is the reste a liquider money.
This is the one that will generate the 'F....off and cut your cloth' response from us.
Yeah, it's like a hooker demanding a payment from a regular punter who's decided to stop using her services, to compensate her for lost future revenue.
But the punter might want to use her errm services in the future...
Brexit is not going to take years but decades. By the time we get anywhere near a conclusion the majority of the Brexiteers will be long dead and a new generation of better educated youngsters will be chomping at the bit to get back in.
Listen to the 1PM News if you doubt it. The Saville Enquiry took 10 years to investigate the events of a single day!
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago More Could a pollster speculate on why polls show Labour at 2015 levels, when that runs counter to everything we're hearing from the ground?
Exactly as we have been asking on here.
The supplementals are horrific for Labour, making 2015 look like roses and buttercups.
Did people head out and vote Tory/Labour in the 2015 GE in Scotland to stop the "SNP landslide" ?
My guess is that there was less visceral hatred of the SNP as the primary opponent at the time to get too many out explicitly to stop it, as compared to wavering labourites terrified of Tories - Don Brind is a case in point, a man who is no fan of corbyn but has a visceral loathing of the Tory party, struggling with what to do, but will definitely return to the fold to stop them as much as he can.
He seems obsessed with party selections the same way others are over local by-elections.
Well, under our broken voting system more MPs are effectively chosen at party selection meetings than at actual elections.
Yes, its normally the case - not for Don Valley this time round though. That is a proper fight. Glasgow NE is the one to look at from 2015 though. From super safe seat to errm super safe seat.
I wonder how the mansion tax will go down in the key marginal for Labour, Bristol West, the West Country Islington....all them houses in Clifton are worth a load more than £400k.
Labour voters in big town houses are absolutely up for higher taxes - they tend to be markedly further left than WWC voters, who generally just want a fairer chance rather than an ideological sea change. I remember canvassing a street in Broxtowe which is in the top 10 most expensive streets in Britain, and being told that Ed's Labour was far too right-wing.
It's possible to be cynical about it - champagne socialists and all that - but their view is that socialism isn't about making everyone poor but about giving everyone as good a life as they have. Fair enough as an aspiration, I think.
He seems obsessed with party selections the same way others are over local by-elections.
Well, under our broken voting system more MPs are effectively chosen at party selection meetings than at actual elections.
Yes, its normally the case - not for Don Valley this time round though. That is a proper fight.
It is and will be fascinating - I asked @Tissue_Price yesterday whether he was a local for precisely this reason. He had rushed off to swot up on local housing developments, no doubt, before he could answer me.
He seems obsessed with party selections the same way others are over local by-elections.
Well, under our broken voting system more MPs are effectively chosen at party selection meetings than at actual elections.
I'd like a more proportional voting system too, but I struggle to get too worked up when a party plays silly buggers with its own associations - they're private clubs, they can select their candidates the way they like, and in many areas if the voters of an area never even consider switching to another party, they are begging to be taken for granted, and in any case presumably do not care which donkey gets the rosette. If they don't care, it's hard for me to care. In this instances they are target seats, the local anger is more understandable, but its still the club that sets the rules, if they don't like it join another club.
MPs are all chosen at the ballot box. That parties have so much support in some areas as to make the contest a foregone conclusion doesn't make that not so - if the candidate is really bad, the locals could always change their minds for once even in safe seats.
But the punter might want to use her errm services in the future...
Indeed, but she's refusing to discuss whether she'd be willing, or confirm that he wouldn't have to pay twice.
Perhaps rather than shout "F... off" at the EU, Britain could start mentioning the acquis communautaire and insisting on compensation for all the assets/revenue streams it has paid into over the years together with compensation for all the future assets / revenue streams which are anticipated as a result of the money Britain is paying in now.
All those acquired rights under EU law are acquired by states, just as much as by citizens. and Britain is entitled to liquidate or get compensation for the loss of those rights. Use the arguments being put forward by the EU but turn them to Britain's advantage.
But the punter might want to use her errm services in the future...
Indeed, but she's refusing to discuss whether she'd be willing, or confirm that he wouldn't have to pay twice.
Perhaps rather than shout "F... off" at the EU, Britain could start mentioning the acquis communautaire and insisting on compensation for all the assets/revenue streams it has paid into over the years together with compensation for all the future assets / revenue streams which are anticipated as a result of the money Britain is paying in now.
All those acquired rights under EU law are acquired by states, just as much as by citizens. and Britain is entitled to liquidate or get compensation for the loss of those rights. Use the arguments being put forward by the EU but turn them to Britain's advantage.
Because that shouldn't take longer than a few decades to agree.
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago More Could a pollster speculate on why polls show Labour at 2015 levels, when that runs counter to everything we're hearing from the ground?
Exactly as we have been asking on here.
Most polls were showing Labour a bit higher in 2015, around 32-34%.
However, let's assume for the sake of argument that Labour win 30%, and I'll make a stab at an explanation:-
1. Labour's vote is holding steady or increasing in left wing areas that voted Remain.
2. Labour's vote share is holding steady or increasing in Conservative areas that voted Remain.
3. UKIP's vote share has plummeted, and some of those voters have gone over to Labour. But, they're far outnumbered by those that are going to the Conservatives.
4. Labour's vote share is falling badly in Labour seats that voted Leave, and UKIP voters in those seats are switching very strongly to the Conservatives.
Sounds plausible, though I'm in a Labour seat that I think voted Leave, and they seem fairly loyal (Nottingham North). Rottenborough isn't quite right that we've been all sounding like Dan Hodges here, though I don't think he believes it when we don't. As I've said a few times, I think Labour is retaining the great majority of its 2015 vote, but not getting many new votes yet.
Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
Far too early to say that in that Labour fell back sharply in the last week or so of the 1983 campaign. At the moment,however, given Labour's collapse in Scotland - which has knocked 2% off their GB vote share - Labour appear to be performing better in England & Wales than in 1983 and 2010 and at a level similar to 1987.
I find it hard to beleive that Corbyn is doing 'better' than Gordon Brown in E+W.
Probably explained by a much lower LD vote than in 2010.
ITV announces a #GE2017 leaders' debate for Thursday May 18, says Theresa May will be invited. #MirrorChicken
Jezza said he ain't doing these either. So it is Tiny Tim, Prof Walter Mitty and ?
Lord Emperor, PhD, MSc, Sir, Baron, King, First Admiral of the Fleet, Knight Commander, General His holiness, his excellency Baron Nuttall might just be there.
Comments
However, let's assume for the sake of argument that Labour win 30%, and I'll make a stab at an explanation:-
1. Labour's vote is holding steady or increasing in left wing areas that voted Remain.
2. Labour's vote share is holding steady or increasing in Conservative areas that voted Remain.
3. UKIP's vote share has plummeted, and some of those voters have gone over to Labour. But, they're far outnumbered by those that are going to the Conservatives.
4. Labour's vote share is falling badly in Labour seats that voted Leave, and UKIP voters in those seats are switching very strongly to the Conservatives.
Ooh...
Maybe they asked Diane Abbott to calculate the bill for them?
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/799479/French-election-2017-Marine-Le-Pen-Emmanuel-Macron-president-second-round-high-abstention
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-London.html
https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2017/02/23/foreign-demand-increased-2016-british-demand-slumped-brexit/
(I ran a simulation of the St Petersburg Paradox using a BBC Basic emulator - and Yes! The expected winnings did gradually increase) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox
It is like those crazy trick shots that go viral, the ones that aren't CGI are simply a reasonably skilled individual try, try, try, try, try, try, and continue trying.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-faces-first-uprising-of-election-as-tories-urge-pm-to-abandon-school-funding-shakeup-a3529261.html
A procession of quotes from MPs.....
The numbers are flakey as hell though - under 35s, students, BAME, did not votes - and all expressing low certainty to vote.
The exception is London of course where as we see from mansion tax, such an idea is, ummmmmmmm, 'brave'
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-plan-to-impose-inheritance-tax-on-estates-worth-425000-a3529116.html
Q: If Theresa May wins the election with a big majority, will that weaken your hand?
Barnier says he will not comment on UK domestic politics.
The only thing he can say is that a new government will last for five years, which is not the case for the current government. That is an important point, he says.
He says the negotiations will take 16 months. He hopes to get an agreement
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/03/general-election-2017-official-campaign-begins-politics-live?CMP=twt_gu
It appears to be an estimate by the FT, - not from the EU itself.
It is a gross payment of up to €100bn, according to Financial Times analysis.
It goes on to say "Estimates of the Brexit bill are highly variable because they include assumptions on Britain’s exit date, its proper share of contributions, UK receipts such as its budget rebate or EU investment spending, and the type of liabilities it is expected to honour."
So, depending on your assumptions, you can make it add up to any number.
I remember George Osborne falsely claiming to halve an EU bill:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/07/uk-pays-full-eu-rebate-despite-osborne-claim-he-halved-it
Watch out for the claim that the Government have managed to halve our exit bill from €100bn to €50bn, saving the taxpayer €50bn, which can be spent on the NHS.
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/859511816522788864
Since World War 2 there has been a clear tendency for massive poll leads not to fully materialise in the Ballot Box - as reflected in results from -2001 - 1997 - 1983 - and 1966.
Anyway a brain crunching lunch break later:
100+3 =103
75/50*6=9
103*9=927
And add the 25
But that would increase the tax on smaller estates, and potentially reduce it on bigger ones.....
Also might help care costs of the inheritor (We're all living longer) rather than getting it all in one go.
https://order-order.com/2017/05/03/cchq-faces-revolt-in-don-valley-and-walsall/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/24/eu-politicians-back-brussels-call-for-uk-to-pay-60bn-exit-bill-before-trade-talks
This includes our contributions up to 2020. As we will be staying until at least March 2019, most of that will be paid as our normal contribution. The issue will be the remaining €15bn still outstanding. But if there is a transitional period, which there will be, this will part cover it.
The whole thing is theatre to first anger the voters and then impress them with substantial spurious reductions. It doesn't fool me.
It also begs the question; what will happen to those voters who turn up to vote UKIP/Green and find there's no candidate? A big increase in spoilt ballots?
Selecting a novice hurdles race for the second last race was a touch of genius.
This is the one that will generate the 'F....off and cut your cloth' response from us.
Listen to the 1PM News if you doubt it. The Saville Enquiry took 10 years to investigate the events of a single day!
Give us a break Govey!
Glasgow NE is the one to look at from 2015 though. From super safe seat to errm super safe seat.
It's possible to be cynical about it - champagne socialists and all that - but their view is that socialism isn't about making everyone poor but about giving everyone as good a life as they have. Fair enough as an aspiration, I think.
MPs are all chosen at the ballot box. That parties have so much support in some areas as to make the contest a foregone conclusion doesn't make that not so - if the candidate is really bad, the locals could always change their minds for once even in safe seats.
All those acquired rights under EU law are acquired by states, just as much as by citizens. and Britain is entitled to liquidate or get compensation for the loss of those rights. Use the arguments being put forward by the EU but turn them to Britain's advantage.
Evening Standard (@EveningStandard)
03/05/2017, 12:58
Who is going to make your artisan coffee after Brexit? http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/who-is-going-to-make-your-artisan-coffee-after-brexit-a3529296.html