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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron moves to a 90%+ chance as another day goes by and his 20% lead holds firm
Latest betting on the French Presidential elections has Macron moving to a 90% chance with the far right Marine Le Pen on 10%. There is not much time left for Le Pen’s hoped for surge to bring about victory.
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While we have all been enjoying Dianne Abbott's terminal gormlessness, has anyone in public media actually questioned the basic claim that Labour will deliver 10k new policemen for £300 million?
It seems to be difficult to find in a written down form, however I have seen the claim repeated unquestioned by the BBC News channel reporters this morning.
ISTM that a basic police salary is not far from £30k per annum, and by the time that gold plated pension, overheads, NICs and so on are added, the cost is closer to £60-70k per policeman.
Which makes the cost to Labour approx £600-700 million per annum and the claim as cloud-cuckoo land or not very honest. That swallows there entire purported £2.7bn savings from messing about with CGT on its own, yet they have been claiming it will take 'some of the CGT money'.
Yet not a peep from the press or the factcheckers as far as I know.
Unlikely given the accuracy of the 1st round polling, but possible - as those polls would have been picking up each candidates' bedrock support which is less susceptible to shyness.
It is hard to see this breaching anything like a 20 point gap though.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKBN1322J1
So that's £130m - which Labour say will come out of current expenditure, not from the £300m. Net impact though, is the £300m is actually only £170m. Then there's all the employer's on-costs...
Not only was the presentation of the policy chaotic, but the economics of it are too.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-salmond-taking-a-pop-at-me-is-fair-play-1-4435380
That's simply a gift.
Brexit had several chunky Leave leads before the vote. Trump was close in the popular vote, and piled it on in the states that mattered on the day to maximise his ECVs (and still lost the popular vote).
Le Pen has none of those.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-grpwftFUw
That doesn't mean that Le Pen will win on Sunday (she won't), nor that she will win in 2022; but one day, sooner or later, a party or person like her, or similar, will grasp the nettle by the horns and be flung into the Elysee Palace by the will of the people just as surely as a lump of poo being flung in all directions by a flatulent hippopotamus.
So we should expect Le Pen to be better than 40% initially, before dropping back. assuming the reporting districts follow the same pattern.
I reckon the BF margin bands could be quite interesting on the night, if there is enough liquidity. The 35-40% band looks the best bet to me.
The key for Macron is getting a supportive assembly without much of a party organisation, but I think his reformism will prove successful, helped by the increasing strength of the French economy.
Jon Ashworth: Hold my beer...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/02/diane-abbott-has-several-numbers-on-police-costs-sadly-they-are-all-wrong
The article itself is brilliant - by far the best I've ever read from John Crace. It was a straight down the line factual report and yet much funnier than his sketches.
But it's the comments that are the killer. I don't think this story will have much traction among the general public TBH. Politician is useless moron shock. But the humiliation and despair among Labour members and former diehards is palpable.
This may seriously harm activist motivation and depress turnout among core voters - both of which were off the scale at the bottom already.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002
They never seem to have much stomach for reform.
Try dropping them an email. That's what I did last year when May became PM.
Brexit does alter things, in that turning Picardy into a lorry park may be as much a problem as turning Kent into one. Inevitably the need to balance the books in the EU will lead to a degree of structural reform of EU finances too. That will drive other reforms.
The recent conflicts over Juncker's comments and rapidly increasing Brexit bill, are influenced more I think by the continental elections than our own. One effective way of getting FN voters back on side is blaming perfidious Albion for French problems. SeanT's jingoism in reverse. With German elections this autumn, there is only a short interval for sanity before the Italian elections next year.
I would bet on around 20 départements such as:
Aisne, Alpes maritimes, Ardennes, Aube, North and South Corsica, Haute Marne, Meuse, Oise, Pas de Calais, Pyrénées orientales, Haut Rhin, Haute Saone, Somme, Var, Vaucluse, Vosges, Yonne + French Polynesia and New Caledonia.
At the regional level, she has a decent chance in 3 metropolitan régions: PACA(Provence Alpes Cotes d'Azur), Hauts de France and Grand Est. However I don't see her winning more than one.
It can only get nastier once the locals are out of the way.
Normally a geographical election is rather less certain than a straight vote count - however the risk is pretty much all skewed onto Labour in this one, in addition to the big poll lead.
The French presidential election does look surprisingly boring. However, thanks once again to the various people here who tipped Macron. Though hedging has reduced my greenness, I did get on at 13 (I'd be in great shape had the weasel Fillon stood down, but there we are).
On top of that, you need the resources to enable them to do their job: cars, computers, riot gear and other specialist clothing, office space and so on - and the consumables that these capital items use to keep them going. I'd be surprised if that didn't come to £50m or so a year as well.
The LDs best prospects are if Tory Remainers can be pursuaded to go LD. Not much sign of that at present, at least to the extent needed. A fair bit of Remania is in SE and SW England.
1. Brown stuck more-or-less to the existing Tory plans, so they weren't Labour numbers, and
2. The government got an unexpectedly huge windfall from the 3G licence auction.
Concentrating on police, hospitals etc is correct for the locals on Thursday. Brexit will follow.
The higher taxes and more debt that we'll be getting whoever wins must be in the small print?
"The detailed figures published by the Labour party do show that the pledge has been costed and could be funded by reversing the cuts in capital gains tax rates announced by George Osborne in April 2016.
Labour’s figures show that in 2017-18 its police recruitment drive would cost £64.3m, £139.1m in 2018-19, £217.2m in 2019-20 and £298.8m in 2020-21, making a total of £771m or nearly £800m over the life of the next parliament."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/02/beneath-diane-abbott-police-funding-gaffes-labour-numbers-make-sense
I believe they also referred to the plans as austerity max as it allowed for no pay increases for four years and of course no budget for training or even equipment
That is Labour to a T - team truth my arse
There's nothing we dislike more than sore losers in this country.
http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/jeremy-corbyn-dangerous-for-britain-simon-danczuk/
Danczuk is right.
'Labour covers up its candidates' pro-independence internet history
SCOTTISH Labour have been forcing new candidates to delete their internet history and wipe any positive reference to independence from their social media.'
http://tinyurl.com/jwkrtp7
Perhaps Ruth's Kippertories should have done the same with the racist, Islamophobic & Sturgeon kidnap fantasy stuff from their merry bunch of roasters.
Building on the NI point, when costing new government funded jobs one could arguably deduct the employees' projected income tax payments as net neutral to the treasury, also, reducing the cost 10% or so.
Police and fire service cuts over recent years have not been popular, and maintaining rural presence for both is a popular doorstep policy. Saving the Hinckley firestation and Cottage Hospital were central themes to our campaigning last weekend. No one asked how they would be funded.
Just Walk Theresa.