Yes this is way too low a threshold for London and will play badly there. In Labour's Harrow West for example, many semi-detached houses in typical suburbia will be hit, and are likely to contain Asian families that vote Labour. Very risky for a group that is moving away from them already (although this seat is probably going Conservative at the next election anyway).
The whole thing is theatre to first anger the voters and then impress them with substantial spurious reductions. It doesn't fool me.
Since you're the only who isn't fooled, could you explain the theatrics of EU27 talking up the amount initially and then angering their own voters, but impressing UK voters, by failing to get anything like it?
Strictly speaking, they haven't talked up the amount. That's the interpretation others have put on EU demands, most recently the FT with its €100 billion figure (€55-75 billion net).
My company was caught inadvertently using a copyrighted image. Initially we pushed back on the outrageous licence fee the owners demanded, but they had heard all this before. We possibly could have avoided paying anything if we really tried, but we had a business to run, so we haggled and ended up paying a third of what was demanded and wrote the whole thing off to experience.
The EU clearly want a deal, mostly on their terms, despite what people post here, and have structured their hand to achieve one. Michel Barnier is a very experienced negotiator.
The big issue with the EU bill is the reste a liquider money.
This is the one that will generate the 'F....off and cut your cloth' response from us.
Yeah, it's like a hooker demanding a payment from a regular punter who's decided to stop using her services, to compensate her for lost future revenue.
Perhaps not the best of analogies, given that of the two, the punter is the criminal in several jurisdictions. And surely Leavers would be arguing that we're the party that's been screwed on a regular basis ?
The big issue with the EU bill is the reste a liquider money.
This is the one that will generate the 'F....off and cut your cloth' response from us.
Yeah, it's like a hooker demanding a payment from a regular punter who's decided to stop using her services, to compensate her for lost future revenue.
That's not a perfect analogy. It would have to be a hooker who had invested a lot of money in 'equipment' to keep the punter happy. The EU will be out of pocket as a result of the UK leaving so some compensation is in order.
Yes this is way too low a threshold for London and will play badly there. In Labour's Harrow West for example, many semi-detached houses in typical suburbia will be hit, and are likely to contain Asian families that vote Labour. Very risky for a group that is moving away from them already (although this seat is probably going Conservative at the next election anyway).
Seems like a very predictable issue to crop up, did they not have a 'but it will be x in London' clause?
Brexit is not going to take years but decades. By the time we get anywhere near a conclusion the majority of the Brexiteers will be long dead and a new generation of better educated youngsters will be chomping at the bit to get back in.
Listen to the 1PM News if you doubt it. The Saville Enquiry took 10 years to investigate the events of a single day!
Give us a break Govey!
"Better educated'. You just can't help yourself, can you, Roger?
So much better than Ed Balls day. Not as viscerally funny as an Abbott meltdown, but with far more permanence, like the memory of it was carved into stone.
So much better than Ed Balls day. Not as viscerally funny as an Abbott meltdown, but with far more permanence, like the memory of it was carved into stone.
I thought people were joking when I first heard about.
The EU clearly want a deal, mostly on their terms, despite what people post here, and have structured their hand to achieve one. Michel Barnier is a very experienced negotiator.
He's sensible enough, but if they want any payment at all beyond our membership fees which terminate completely in two years' time, then they need to offer something in return, and something which is commensurate with whatever figure they are hoping for. So they need to abandon the ludicrous pretence that a trade deal can't be discussed as part of the overall exit package. It actually has to be discussed first, because it is literally impossible to discuss exit terms in any detail if you don't know what you're exiting to. Even more so, it's impossible to discuss the Irish border issue without knowing what agreement we will have on cross-border trade.
Fortunately, there are some indications that this reality is finally beginning to seep into their brains. The do seem to be backtracking on this.
The big issue with the EU bill is the reste a liquider money.
This is the one that will generate the 'F....off and cut your cloth' response from us.
Yeah, it's like a hooker demanding a payment from a regular punter who's decided to stop using her services, to compensate her for lost future revenue.
That's not a perfect analogy. It would have to be a hooker who had invested a lot of money in 'equipment' to keep the punter happy. The EU will be out of pocket as a result of the UK leaving so some compensation is in order.
"who had invested a lot of money in 'equipment' to keep the punter happy..." If only that were true. Had the EU made a fraction of that effort when Cameron attempted his renegotiation, we wouldn't be having that discussion.
The big issue with the EU bill is the reste a liquider money.
This is the one that will generate the 'F....off and cut your cloth' response from us.
Yeah, it's like a hooker demanding a payment from a regular punter who's decided to stop using her services, to compensate her for lost future revenue.
That's not a perfect analogy. It would have to be a hooker who had invested a lot of money in 'equipment' to keep the punter happy. The EU will be out of pocket as a result of the UK leaving so some compensation is in order.
Hang on a minute. This is a hooker with 28 clients, all but three of whom she has to pay to force them into her arms. Of her three playing clients, one is now leaving, so some of the 'paid to play' clients may now have to stump up for the equipment previously paid for by others.
So much better than Ed Balls day. Not as viscerally funny as an Abbott meltdown, but with far more permanence, like the memory of it was carved into stone.
I thought people were joking when I first heard about.
So much better than Ed Balls day. Not as viscerally funny as an Abbott meltdown, but with far more permanence, like the memory of it was carved into stone.
I thought people were joking when I first heard about.
I was sat eating my election week full English - it was the moment I knew we'd win at least Most Seats and perhaps a majority...
The big issue with the EU bill is the reste a liquider money.
This is the one that will generate the 'F....off and cut your cloth' response from us.
Yeah, it's like a hooker demanding a payment from a regular punter who's decided to stop using her services, to compensate her for lost future revenue.
That's not a perfect analogy. It would have to be a hooker who had invested a lot of money in 'equipment' to keep the punter happy. The EU will be out of pocket as a result of the UK leaving so some compensation is in order.
Hang on a minute. This is a hooker with 28 clients, all but three of whom she has to pay to force them into her arms. Of her three playing clients, one is now leaving, so some of the 'paid to play' clients may now have to stump up for the equipment previously paid for by others.
So much better than Ed Balls day. Not as viscerally funny as an Abbott meltdown, but with far more permanence, like the memory of it was carved into stone.
I thought people were joking when I first heard about.
It didn't dawn on my husband for months that the Edstone was real. He thought it was some kind of joke from HIGNFY. He was quite surprised when I told him it wasn't a skit.
And in other news, I met a friend for coffee earlier today. Talk turned to the general election. "My hear sunk when I heard about it", she said. "So boring. Already had to put up with an election in 2015, Brexit and Trump last year and now this. Boring." Yes, it's true, There actually are people out there who don't obsess about the minutiae of Brexit negotiations, or Diane Abbott interview questions or Theresa May eating chips.
Yes this is way too low a threshold for London and will play badly there. In Labour's Harrow West for example, many semi-detached houses in typical suburbia will be hit, and are likely to contain Asian families that vote Labour. Very risky for a group that is moving away from them already (although this seat is probably going Conservative at the next election anyway).
Seems like a very predictable issue to crop up, did they not have a 'but it will be x in London' clause?
That wouldn't go down well elsewhere, if Londoners are given a tax loophole not available to the rest of the country.
The EU clearly want a deal, mostly on their terms, despite what people post here, and have structured their hand to achieve one. Michel Barnier is a very experienced negotiator.
He's sensible enough, but if they want any payment at all beyond our membership fees which terminate completely in two years' time, then they need to offer something in return, and something which is commensurate with whatever figure they are hoping for.
That is the key - at the moment, they are only using threats of how terrible it will be for why we must do what they say. Now, lets say it will be as terrible as they say, they still need to use a carrot as well as a stick if they actually want what they've asked for (and if they don't, then it is designed to get no deal). Even if they would be hurt less than us, if they want something, they have to give something, even if it is not much.
I wonder how the mansion tax will go down in the key marginal for Labour, Bristol West, the West Country Islington....all them houses in Clifton are worth a load more than £400k.
Labour voters in big town houses are absolutely up for higher taxes - they tend to be markedly further left than WWC voters, who generally just want a fairer chance rather than an ideological sea change. I remember canvassing a street in Broxtowe which is in the top 10 most expensive streets in Britain, and being told that Ed's Labour was far too right-wing.
It's possible to be cynical about it - champagne socialists and all that - but their view is that socialism isn't about making everyone poor but about giving everyone as good a life as they have. Fair enough as an aspiration, I think.
Yes, but it's very different when it's the money/family home you hope to pass on to your own kids.
In my experience most of the wealthy lefties I know are very happy to pay higher income taxes, et cetera, but will still balk at the idea of there being no nice leafy house in Clifton Village to leave to Julian and Jemimah when they're gone.
Brexit is not going to take years but decades. By the time we get anywhere near a conclusion the majority of the Brexiteers will be long dead and a new generation of better educated youngsters will be chomping at the bit to get back in.
Listen to the 1PM News if you doubt it. The Saville Enquiry took 10 years to investigate the events of a single day!
Give us a break Govey!
"Better educated'. You just can't help yourself, can you, Roger?
Better educated people would realise that todays youngsters will probably become less up for open borders etc as they grow up and compete for jobs/housing/school places for kids etc, just like every other generation since time began
Yes this is way too low a threshold for London and will play badly there. In Labour's Harrow West for example, many semi-detached houses in typical suburbia will be hit, and are likely to contain Asian families that vote Labour. Very risky for a group that is moving away from them already (although this seat is probably going Conservative at the next election anyway).
Seems like a very predictable issue to crop up, did they not have a 'but it will be x in London' clause?
That wouldn't go down well elsewhere, if Londoners are given a tax loophole not available to the rest of the country.
Betting on retaining their London firewall then, in the hope of broadening appeal elsewhere. Probably a worthwhile gamble.
Fortunately, there are some indications that this reality is finally beginning to seep into their brains. The do seem to be backtracking on this.
Barnier explicitly said this morning, exit deal first, trade deal later
He can say what he likes, but it ain't gonna happen like that. If the EU insist on that approach, then there will be no deal, they won't get a centime, and the Irish are going to be extremely unhappy because there would have to be border checks and tariffs at the Irish border.
Maybe that's what the EU27 want, I don't claim to understand their position, which seems to be bonkers.
The whole thing is theatre to first anger the voters and then impress them with substantial spurious reductions. It doesn't fool me.
Since you're the only who isn't fooled, could you explain the theatrics of EU27 talking up the amount initially and then angering their own voters, but impressing UK voters, by failing to get anything like it?
It's all in the presentation. The UK Government and their media supporters control the way it is presented in the UK. The EU27 manage their own presentation in their own interests. (eg "They eventually paid up what we asked"). They don't leave it to the UK Government. As I said - it's all theatre.
There may well be a covert agreement between the negotiators on how it is presented to their respective audiences, such as not to interfere or contradict internal national presentations.
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago More Could a pollster speculate on why polls show Labour at 2015 levels, when that runs counter to everything we're hearing from the ground?
Exactly as we have been asking on here.
Most polls were showing Labour a bit higher in 2015, around 32-34%.
However, let's assume for the sake of argument that Labour win 30%, and I'll make a stab at an explanation:-
1. Labour's vote is holding steady or increasing in left wing areas that voted Remain.
2. Labour's vote share is holding steady or increasing in Conservative areas that voted Remain.
3. UKIP's vote share has plummeted, and some of those voters have gone over to Labour. But, they're far outnumbered by those that are going to the Conservatives.
4. Labour's vote share is falling badly in Labour seats that voted Leave, and UKIP voters in those seats are switching very strongly to the Conservatives.
Sounds plausible, though I'm in a Labour seat that I think voted Leave, and they seem fairly loyal (Nottingham North). Rottenborough isn't quite right that we've been all sounding like Dan Hodges here, though I don't think he believes it when we don't. As I've said a few times, I think Labour is retaining the great majority of its 2015 vote, but not getting many new votes yet.
Doesn't feel like Labour is holding its vote in Remain-y London
But the punter might want to use her errm services in the future...
Indeed, but she's refusing to discuss whether she'd be willing, or confirm that he wouldn't have to pay twice.
Perhaps rather than shout "F... off" at the EU, Britain could start mentioning the acquis communautaire and insisting on compensation for all the assets/revenue streams it has paid into over the years together with compensation for all the future assets / revenue streams which are anticipated as a result of the money Britain is paying in now.
All those acquired rights under EU law are acquired by states, just as much as by citizens. and Britain is entitled to liquidate or get compensation for the loss of those rights. Use the arguments being put forward by the EU but turn them to Britain's advantage.
Because that shouldn't take longer than a few decades to agree.
Establishing the principle that the acquis communautaire applies to Britain's assets within the EU might help stop the EU making the discussions only about our liabilities, especially as I have yet to see any legal basis for the claim that Britain owes anything once it has left. There is nothing in Article 50 for instance. Is there some other legal provision which sets out the legal basis for what Barnier is claiming?
Or is this all arising because the other states neither want to reduce their budget nor pay extra after Britain leaves? Understandable of course but "what I want" is not usually the basis for a successful legal claim.
To be clear, I think any deal will take years and years and that Britain should be preparing hard for a WTO-based Brexit with no deal, other than possibly a transitional one. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
I wonder how the mansion tax will go down in the key marginal for Labour, Bristol West, the West Country Islington....all them houses in Clifton are worth a load more than £400k.
Labour voters in big town houses are absolutely up for higher taxes - they tend to be markedly further left than WWC voters, who generally just want a fairer chance rather than an ideological sea change. I remember canvassing a street in Broxtowe which is in the top 10 most expensive streets in Britain, and being told that Ed's Labour was far too right-wing.
It's possible to be cynical about it - champagne socialists and all that - but their view is that socialism isn't about making everyone poor but about giving everyone as good a life as they have. Fair enough as an aspiration, I think.
Indeed. In principle, I find the concept of inheritance tax easier than justify than just about any other form of taxation. People are being taxed on what to ordinary mortals still seems a massive windfall, a windfall which they have done nothing themselves to earn, and they still retain the significant bulk of the windfall anyway.
"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."? But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.
Again, I don't understand that - when we were going ot live in France it was made clear we had to pay into one of the Insurance schemes
So much better than Ed Balls day. Not as viscerally funny as an Abbott meltdown, but with far more permanence, like the memory of it was carved into stone.
I thought people were joking when I first heard about.
It didn't dawn on my husband for months that the Edstone was real. He thought it was some kind of joke from HIGNFY. He was quite surprised when I told him it wasn't a skit.
And in other news, I met a friend for coffee earlier today. Talk turned to the general election. "My hear sunk when I heard about it", she said. "So boring. Already had to put up with an election in 2015, Brexit and Trump last year and now this. Boring." Yes, it's true, There actually are people out there who don't obsess about the minutiae of Brexit negotiations, or Diane Abbott interview questions or Theresa May eating chips.
Such strange people. I quite like election time. It's the one time of year people I know also talk about these things (all three of your examples have come up inthe office today).
Barnier explicitly said this morning, exit deal first, trade deal later
Not quite what he said:
faisalislam: NB it is the methodology not the figure that has to be agreed for financial settlement, says Barnier, for Phase 1
I realise it might not be "cricket" but what is to stop us agreeing the methodology and then if the free trade negotiations get nowhere deciding to renege on the deal. After all, the UK approach seems to be "all is agreed or nothing is agreed". The EU might not agree, but what is there to actually prevent us.
I wonder how the mansion tax will go down in the key marginal for Labour, Bristol West, the West Country Islington....all them houses in Clifton are worth a load more than £400k.
I remember canvassing a street in Broxtowe which is in the top 10 most expensive streets in Britain.
But the punter might want to use her errm services in the future...
Indeed, but she's refusing to discuss whether she'd be willing, or confirm that he wouldn't have to pay twice.
Perhaps rather than shout "F... off" at the EU, Britain could start mentioning the acquis communautaire and insisting on compensation for all the assets/revenue streams it has paid into over the years together with compensation for all the future assets / revenue streams which are anticipated as a result of the money Britain is paying in now.
All those acquired rights under EU law are acquired by states, just as much as by citizens. and Britain is entitled to liquidate or get compensation for the loss of those rights. Use the arguments being put forward by the EU but turn them to Britain's advantage.
Because that shouldn't take longer than a few decades to agree.
Establishing the principle that the acquis communautaire applies to Britain's assets within the EU might help stop the EU making the discussions only about our liabilities, especially as I have yet to see any legal basis for the claim that Britain owes anything once it has left. There is nothing in Article 50 for instance. Is there some other legal provision which sets out the legal basis for what Barnier is claiming?
Or is this all arising because the other states neither want to reduce their budget nor pay extra after Britain leaves? Understandable of course but "what I want" is not usually the basis for a successful legal claim.
To be clear, I think any deal will take years and years and that Britain should be preparing hard for a WTO-based Brexit with no deal, other than possibly a transitional one. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
Anyway am off for some rest.
Good sense as usual, C-free.
Have a nice rest and I hope you are fully recovered very soon.
FWIW there does appear to have been a shift-ette among my leftie friends towards reluctantly voting Labour. I have no idea why. I think it's mad behaviour – any vote for Labour will be (wrongly in most cases) interpreted by the Far Left as a vote for Corbyn. A dangerous game to play.
I wonder how the mansion tax will go down in the key marginal for Labour, Bristol West, the West Country Islington....all them houses in Clifton are worth a load more than £400k.
I remember canvassing a street in Broxtowe which is in the top 10 most expensive streets in Britain.
Really?!
The top ten most expensive streets outside London perhaps. I'd venture that the top 100 most expensive streets (as near as dammit) are all in London.
The EU clearly want a deal, mostly on their terms, despite what people post here, and have structured their hand to achieve one. Michel Barnier is a very experienced negotiator.
He's sensible enough, but if they want any payment at all beyond our membership fees which terminate completely in two years' time, then they need to offer something in return, and something which is commensurate with whatever figure they are hoping for. So they need to abandon the ludicrous pretence that a trade deal can't be discussed as part of the overall exit package. It actually has to be discussed first, because it is literally impossible to discuss exit terms in any detail if you don't know what you're exiting to. Even more so, it's impossible to discuss the Irish border issue without knowing what agreement we will have on cross-border trade.
Fortunately, there are some indications that this reality is finally beginning to seep into their brains. The do seem to be backtracking on this.
It's a pay to play fee essentially.The EU will present it as an objective "what's owed", but the degree which we go along with it depends on our assessment of what it's worth to be in the system against the nuisance we cause the EU by crashing out in a disorderly way. Bearing in the mind the payments issue doesn't go away if we crash out but want dealings with Europe in the future. But you're right, the exit fee is a part of a total deal.
FWIW there does appear to have been a shift-ette among my leftie friends towards reluctantly voting Labour. I have no idea why. I think it's mad behaviour – any vote for Labour will be (wrongly in most cases) interpreted by the Far Left as a vote for Corbyn. A dangerous game to play.
Pretty clear why - while it will be interpreted that way, and it might make fighting the far left harder, it's necessary to ensure there is a left at all to fight over. Or so the thinking will probably go.
I'm shifting back up to Lab 180-190. If this 30ish trend continues, possible a few more, but I think staying above 200 will be very tough given Scotland.
FWIW there does appear to have been a shift-ette among my leftie friends towards reluctantly voting Labour. I have no idea why. I think it's mad behaviour – any vote for Labour will be (wrongly in most cases) interpreted by the Far Left as a vote for Corbyn. A dangerous game to play.
I think they should assess if they live in a marginal, e.g. Edgbaston or Selly Oak, where a vote may count.
In 80-85% of seats, it makes bugger all difference which way they vote. They might as well vote Lib.Dem or Green.
If they're Remainers, that vote might even send a more useful message to May than voting for Corbyn.
I wonder how the mansion tax will go down in the key marginal for Labour, Bristol West, the West Country Islington....all them houses in Clifton are worth a load more than £400k.
I remember canvassing a street in Broxtowe which is in the top 10 most expensive streets in Britain.
Really?!
The top ten most expensive streets outside London perhaps. I'd venture that the top 100 most expensive streets (as near as dammit) are all in London.
FWIW there does appear to have been a shift-ette among my leftie friends towards reluctantly voting Labour. I have no idea why. I think it's mad behaviour – any vote for Labour will be (wrongly in most cases) interpreted by the Far Left as a vote for Corbyn. A dangerous game to play.
I think they should assess if they live in a marginal, e.g. Edgbaston or Selly Oak, where a vote may count.
In 80-85% of seats, it makes bugger all difference which way they vote. They might as well vote Lib.Dem or Green.
If they're Remainers, that vote might even send a more useful message to May than voting for Corbyn.
I have picked up the same as Bob. My good friend who lives in Corbyn's seat was going to vote LibDem when the election was called, but is now saying she may as well vote for Corbyn again since he is obviously going to win. I pointed out that if JC is going to win anyway she is actually free to exercise any sort of protest by voting for any of the other candidates...to me that makes perfect sense, but it is remarkable how many people think the only worthwhile vote is a vote for the obvious winner.
Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
Far too early to say that in that Labour fell back sharply in the last week or so of the 1983 campaign. At the moment,however, given Labour's collapse in Scotland - which has knocked 2% off their GB vote share - Labour appear to be performing better in England & Wales than in 1983 and 2010 and at a level similar to 1987.
I find it hard to beleive that Corbyn is doing 'better' than Gordon Brown in E+W.
Probably explained by a much lower LD vote than in 2010.
Eh ??
Many 2010 LDs are now voting Labour as in 2015 - indeed some are Corbynistas!
Brexit is not going to take years but decades. By the time we get anywhere near a conclusion the majority of the Brexiteers will be long dead and a new generation of better educated youngsters will be chomping at the bit to get back in.
Listen to the 1PM News if you doubt it. The Saville Enquiry took 10 years to investigate the events of a single day!
Give us a break Govey!
By the time the UK finally does leave enough leave voters (who mostly have dementia anyway) will have died to give Remain or Rejoin a majority.
I wonder how the mansion tax will go down in the key marginal for Labour, Bristol West, the West Country Islington....all them houses in Clifton are worth a load more than £400k.
I remember canvassing a street in Broxtowe which is in the top 10 most expensive streets in Britain.
Really?!
The top ten most expensive streets outside London perhaps. I'd venture that the top 100 most expensive streets (as near as dammit) are all in London.
Yet prices at the top end of the market are down nearly 8% since last year and there is now a record 27,000 unsold new properties in the capital. With a trickle of senior jobs starting to relocate back to the EU and many younger EU workers leaving because they feel unwelcome, buy-to-let being made less attractive as an investment and the likeihood of restrictions on property buying by foreign 'investors' (criminals), I think we may have seen the top of the London property market for some years to come?
They showed how they did it....they simply turned the camera on and filmed all day....
It is like those crazy trick shots that go viral, the ones that aren't CGI are simply a reasonably skilled individual try, try, try, try, try, try, and continue trying.
Yes, and having the mental strength to keep doing it until it succeeds.
Who else, apart from Derren Brown, could avoid going completely nuts spending a whole day doing nothing except tossing a coin enthusiastically into a pot, in front of a camera - until it came up tails - then starting again with the same outward enthusiasm as before?
I reckon most normal people would quit after half an hour of doing that, AIUI it's the only time 'ten heads in a row' has been captured on camera, was certainly the first time.
Brexit is not going to take years but decades. By the time we get anywhere near a conclusion the majority of the Brexiteers will be long dead and a new generation of better educated youngsters will be chomping at the bit to get back in.
Listen to the 1PM News if you doubt it. The Saville Enquiry took 10 years to investigate the events of a single day!
Give us a break Govey!
By the time the UK finally does leave enough leave voters (who mostly have dementia anyway) will have died to give Remain or Rejoin a majority.
That comment says a lot more about you than it does about Leave voters. I hope you never have to deal with dementia and its consequences on a personal level.
FWIW there does appear to have been a shift-ette among my leftie friends towards reluctantly voting Labour. I have no idea why. I think it's mad behaviour – any vote for Labour will be (wrongly in most cases) interpreted by the Far Left as a vote for Corbyn. A dangerous game to play.
I think they should assess if they live in a marginal, e.g. Edgbaston or Selly Oak, where a vote may count.
In 80-85% of seats, it makes bugger all difference which way they vote. They might as well vote Lib.Dem or Green.
If they're Remainers, that vote might even send a more useful message to May than voting for Corbyn.
I have picked up the same as Bob. My good friend who lives in Corbyn's seat was going to vote LibDem when the election was called, but is now saying she may as well vote for Corbyn again since he is obviously going to win. I pointed out that if JC is going to win anyway she is actually free to exercise any sort of protest by voting for any of the other candidates...to me that makes perfect sense, but it is remarkable how many people think the only worthwhile vote is a vote for the obvious winner.
That's extraordinary behaviour. It becomes difficult in a marginal like Hampstead or Ilford North. Maybe people vote more 'rationally' there.
Comments
My company was caught inadvertently using a copyrighted image. Initially we pushed back on the outrageous licence fee the owners demanded, but they had heard all this before. We possibly could have avoided paying anything if we really tried, but we had a business to run, so we haggled and ended up paying a third of what was demanded and wrote the whole thing off to experience.
The EU clearly want a deal, mostly on their terms, despite what people post here, and have structured their hand to achieve one. Michel Barnier is a very experienced negotiator.
As many may note, some bookies have stoppped giving odds of 1.01. The same seats are now 1.00:
'no we don't want your money unless you're betting for the fools with no chance who we've given odds of 34 or 101 [100/1]'.
Were millionaires betting £1M in safe Tory seats and withdrawing their stake plus £10k the day after the election?
And surely Leavers would be arguing that we're the party that's been screwed on a regular basis ?
Fortunately, there are some indications that this reality is finally beginning to seep into their brains. The do seem to be backtracking on this.
If only that were true. Had the EU made a fraction of that effort when Cameron attempted his renegotiation, we wouldn't be having that discussion.
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/859749476168323074
faisalislam: NB it is the methodology not the figure that has to be agreed for financial settlement, says Barnier, for Phase 1
And in other news, I met a friend for coffee earlier today. Talk turned to the general election. "My hear sunk when I heard about it", she said. "So boring. Already had to put up with an election in 2015, Brexit and Trump last year and now this. Boring." Yes, it's true, There actually are people out there who don't obsess about the minutiae of Brexit negotiations, or Diane Abbott interview questions or Theresa May eating chips.
In my experience most of the wealthy lefties I know are very happy to pay higher income taxes, et cetera, but will still balk at the idea of there being no nice leafy house in Clifton Village to leave to Julian and Jemimah when they're gone.
I think this could have an effect in those seats.
Maybe that's what the EU27 want, I don't claim to understand their position, which seems to be bonkers.
There may well be a covert agreement between the negotiators on how it is presented to their respective audiences, such as not to interfere or contradict internal national presentations.
Or is this all arising because the other states neither want to reduce their budget nor pay extra after Britain leaves? Understandable of course but "what I want" is not usually the basis for a successful legal claim.
To be clear, I think any deal will take years and years and that Britain should be preparing hard for a WTO-based Brexit with no deal, other than possibly a transitional one. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
Anyway am off for some rest.
Are you responsible for this, Richard?
Which, to be fair, it was.
NEW THREAD
Barnier explicitly said this morning, exit deal first, trade deal later
Not quite what he said:
faisalislam: NB it is the methodology not the figure that has to be agreed for financial settlement, says Barnier, for Phase 1
I realise it might not be "cricket" but what is to stop us agreeing the methodology and then if the free trade negotiations get nowhere deciding to renege on the deal. After all, the UK approach seems to be "all is agreed or nothing is agreed".
The EU might not agree, but what is there to actually prevent us.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-lepen-idUKKBN17Z0WB?il=0
Have a nice rest and I hope you are fully recovered very soon.
He'll be writing the thread header as soon as he does.
I'm shifting back up to Lab 180-190. If this 30ish trend continues, possible a few more, but I think staying above 200 will be very tough given Scotland.
((25+5)*7+(9*10))*1
In 80-85% of seats, it makes bugger all difference which way they vote. They might as well vote Lib.Dem or Green.
If they're Remainers, that vote might even send a more useful message to May than voting for Corbyn.
Who else, apart from Derren Brown, could avoid going completely nuts spending a whole day doing nothing except tossing a coin enthusiastically into a pot, in front of a camera - until it came up tails - then starting again with the same outward enthusiasm as before?
I reckon most normal people would quit after half an hour of doing that, AIUI it's the only time 'ten heads in a row' has been captured on camera, was certainly the first time.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pfa3MHLLSWI