For those who think a big TM majority will mean she can face down the Hardliners on Brexit, think about this. Most of the new voters to the Conservatives will have come from UKIP and many of those will have been ex-Labour originally. TM will know that her big majority rests on keeping their support. So will the MPs who have won those seats. So why the hell is she going to even think about disappointing those people and face the risk that they return back to UKIP?
It also fulfills the PB Brexit golden rule: if Remainers think something is good for Remain/soft br dig, the exact reverse is true.
Confession: I rather admire the brazen way the Tories are repeating "strong and stable".
This reminds me of the Labour campaign in 1997. Relentless, even tedious message discipline. Endless reiteration of the central themes. Rinse and repeat, drain and recycle. Everyone in the loop, echoing the same numbingly predictable soundbites. And facing a panicked, feeble opposition, knowing it is doomed to horrible defeat.
The result was a landslide then, and it will surely be a landslide now.
I think its irritating, but I severely doubt it is so irritating it will cost them - there is zero doubt what their message is.
Have the others come up with slogans yet?
Quite. I have no idea what Labour stands for, or indeed the LDs, or UKIP. Certainly I can't sum it up in three words. I guess the SNP stand for "Another Independence Referendum!" but I'm not sure it's that popular, even in Scotland.
"Strong and stable" sounds very appealing, it's what we want. Like "milk and biscuits", or "gin and tonic", or "champagne and spanking", or even "poetry and striptease" (a poem by my father).
The world is scary. Islamism is scary. Climate change is scary. Brexit is scary. Strong and stable??? YES PLEASE. We don't want Hope and Change, We Want Strong and Stable.
Presumably they focus-grouped it to death, and found that it hit home.
It works.
Everyone knows what the LibDems stand for. But it's a message that resonates only in student halls and in the leafiest suburbs and garden towns of South East England.
In three words?
I'm seriously interested. I have to come up with commercial thriller titles, and it's fucking hard, and it's well known that you need to hone the title until it is perfect, taking into account known publishing truths, e.g. five syllables is best. The Da Vinci Code. Five syllables.
And there are many other rules. e.g. psych domestic thriller titles ideally need to reference the main character, and provide a human element - The Girl on the Train, The Ice Twins.
The same must apply to political slogans for parties in elections. Three words seems good. What is the LD pitch in three words?
I see the latest thing the nuttier Leavers are getting excited about is that the EU has the temerity to choose its own negotiating team. Words fail me.
I know the FA gets a lot of criticism, but they've never done anything as stupid as this.
The Pescara midfielder Sulley Muntari has been banned for one match after walking off the pitch at Cagliari on Sunday following racist abuse from the home crowd. Muntari was booked for complaining to the referee about the abuse, before walking off the pitch and earning a second yellow card.
Serie A’s disciplinary committee added that no action would be taken against Cagliari over the incident. The committee described the chanting as deplorable but claimed that “an approximate number of only 10” individuals were involved, not enough to warrant a punishment against the club under Serie A rules.
I'm a governor at an 'outstanding' primary, and much of what they say rings true. Teachers and senior management teams have worked miracles over last ten years to improve standards, and they are still getting shafted with budget reductions (particularly here in Oxfordshire) but mostly staff recruitment challenges. So many young teachers think 'fuck that for a game of soldiers' once they've finished training, and experienced teachers are deserting the sinking ship.
Schools get it in the neck from politicians that they are failing pupils in general, and parents that they are failing their kids in particular. The perfect political punchbags.
Still, I'm sure grammar schools will sort all this out.
I see the latest thing the nuttier Leavers are getting excited about is that the EU has the temerity to choose its own negotiating team. Words fail me.
So when Tezza "negotiates" the bill from 100bn back down to 60, the Brexiteers will hail that as a triumph, right?
No. If they offer a magnificent trade deal including passporting for between £10 and £20 billion, that would be fine. Otherwise no.
In what world do we want to belong to a gang which says "the price of Leaving is sixty billion, no, eighty billion, no, fuck off, let's ask for a hundred billion, fuck you Brits! Hahahahah!!"
They are worthy merely of contempt. Brits who support the EU, from Meeks to Southam, are traitors.
Granted, but the point is that if they offer us a gold plated deal including services, then a few billion is OK.
Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.
I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.
I am excited to an extent (have just come back from canvassing a council seat the Tories are trying to take off the LDs), the Tories have not had a 100+majority since 1987, 30 years ago which I was too young to remember, Labour had one in 2001 just 16 years ago which I remember well but for the wrong reasons, canvassing in Leamington as a student and watching the Labour MP increase his majority
I remember the 87 election. I won a pint off my brother for forcasting the size of the majority, my first political bet.
I also remember how that majority led to policy errors that brought major civil disobedience to the streets, self destructive infighting and the fragging of their commander by the Tory troops. Now that was popcorn time!
After hubris comes nemesis.
A lot of that is true, especially imposing the poll tax in Scotland before the rest of the country, although on the other hand the Tory share only went down by 0.5% at the 1992 election and they got more votes than anyone's ever got before or since.
Well, I suppose May might be sufficiently old and unpopular come 2020 for the Tories to successfully pull off the change of leader trick again, just like 1992. And a new centre left party then wins a landslide in 2025....
Alzheimer rates for men have dropped to a third of the level they were at a few years ago. Alzheimer rates for women have stayed high, and now much higher than men's. So not a feature of old age then, something that can be changed,
That is really quite interesting. Got a link?
I don't think that it is true, looking at the age standardised Alzheimers rates published here on the ONS website:
For those who think a big TM majority will mean she can face down the Hardliners on Brexit, think about this. Most of the new voters to the Conservatives will have come from UKIP and many of those will have been ex-Labour originally. TM will know that her big majority rests on keeping their support. So will the MPs who have won those seats. So why the hell is she going to even think about disappointing those people and face the risk that they return back to UKIP?
A lot of people, myself included, would have preferred softer Brexit types, but some of them keep finding signs that TMay is secretly going to backtrack on her rhetoric and try for that in the end. So far that is not the case, and if it was ever possible, it isn't now, not with the EU clearly having decided it doesn't care if it catches some blowback from us crashing out, given their strategy.
Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times. to stage a hilarious rebellion against the, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.
To give an honest answer I could not say I am enjoying it and I do not count chickens before they are h
I genuinely feel sorry for dedicated labour supporters and understonly have themselves to blame
I certainly do not feel triumphant though I will be more than pleased if Theresa May is returned with a good working majority
HYUFD and Big G
Thanks for your answers. G - why do Labour supporters have themselves to blame? Most traditional Labour supporters are NOT responsible for Corbyn.
I used to be in the Labour Party. Everyone in the Labour party ruddy well should blame themselves for what's happened to the Labour Party. Somewhere, in the early Tony Blair era, the party lost the capacity to be self-critical. It's easy in politics to criticise your opponents. That's the fun bit. It's what we do here, most of the day. It's harder, but more useful, to be self-critical. "what should we do differently?" "which of our opponents arguments have merit and how can we respond ?" Somehow that died in the Labour Party. I think it was a switch, unconscious, from "What are the pluses and minuses of doing X ?" to "What message does advocating Policy X send about us ?"
Here's a specific instance of where Labour went wrong. When Ed Milliband announced the 3-pounds-elect-a-Labour-Leader scheme, I said to myself "That will be hijacked by Trotskyists and weirdos". I was right. So it turns out that I, who has a day job, am better at left-wing politics than Ed Millliband, who has only ever done Left-wing politics.
Most of the
He'd still be a lot better than Corbyn. In 2015 I assumed that Milliband would win and though it wasn't my first choice I wasn't expecting a disaster either. Corbyn? He has to be stopped.
Agreed. I've never voted against a candidate before, but I might now. Miliband would have been fine. Corbyn would not be, and that he almost certainly won't win doesn't mean the party should not be punished for picking him.
Am I weird liking Dandelion and Burdock (the posh stuff, not the £19 a litre gut rot) with my fish and chips?
I like dandelion and burdock, but where are you getting it at more than £19 a bottle?
Sorry I meant 19p a litre stuff you find in corner shops...I just done a what is now called a Diane Abbott...
Shame. I was hoping there was some Blue Mountain of Dandelion and Burdock out there, waiting for me to try...
Fentimans ain't exactly cheap.
Any good? (I normally end up with M&S stuff when impulse buy any).
For the old classic drinks like Dandelion and Burdock, Rose Lemonade and Ginger Beer, they are IMO very good. Their USP is they are made the old fashioned way by "brewing them" for 7 days.
I've just looked them up and the bottles look familiar, but i think I've only seen them in National Trust cafes and the like.
Fentiman's drinks can be bought from Tesco, Waitrose and other supermarkets.
I see the latest thing the nuttier Leavers are getting excited about is that the EU has the temerity to choose its own negotiating team. Words fail me.
You need to choose your side, and soon. You are a Brit, or you are a Hungarian/European and a foreigner. No more havering.
I assume that you hit gin o'clock a few hours ago.
I am British and European. I'm also a Londoner, English and Norfolk and good. I see no need to discard any of these identities just to please dimwitted maniacs.
Why do those on the left like to imagine that nastiness is the preserve of Conservatives? May I recommend to Mr Brind the memoirs of Damian McBride.One of Labours greatest mistakes is its sanctimonious assertion of moral superiority.
For the same reasons they think ALL Racism is only found on the Right- It provides a step of moral superiority for them to stand on and a social comfort blanket
I find it "interesting" that Labour-rightly-kick out someone who wants to ban Islam but allows the Jew baiters to carry on regardless.
And yet we have to hear a sermon from Don on the moral righteousness of the Left
So when Tezza "negotiates" the bill from 100bn back down to 60, the Brexiteers will hail that as a triumph, right?
No. If they offer a magnificent trade deal including passporting for between £10 and £20 billion, that would be fine. Otherwise no.
In what world do we want to belong to a gang which says "the price of Leaving is sixty billion, no, eighty billion, no, fuck off, let's ask for a hundred billion, fuck you Brits! Hahahahah!!"
They are worthy merely of contempt. Brits who support the EU, from Meeks to Southam, are traitors.
I'm increasingly of the viewpoint that the EU has always been fundamentally anti-British.
Just think back to its inception in the 1950s.
Its beyond doubt that the first half of the twentieth century was sub-optimal for the Germany and France. Germany has lost lots of territory, had millions killed, its country smashed up and its reputation ruined. France has had millions killed, its territory smashed up and been humiliated (with more to come in Indochina and Algeria).
And then they look at Britain - far, far fewer casualties and damage and they know that Britain will forever be smugly telling them about the War.
And then beyond Britain they look at the USA - hardly any damage or casualties and so rich and they know that the USA will be using its wealth and power to impose its worldview and culture upon them.
If you were a French or German politician or banker or grand bureaucrat wouldn't you be filled with resentment at the English speaking countries ?
So when Tezza "negotiates" the bill from 100bn back down to 60, the Brexiteers will hail that as a triumph, right?
No. If they offer a magnificent trade deal including passporting for between £10 and £20 billion, that would be fine. Otherwise no.
In what world do we want to belong to a gang which says "the price of Leaving is sixty billion, no, eighty billion, no, fuck off, let's ask for a hundred billion, fuck you Brits! Hahahahah!!"
They are worthy merely of contempt. Brits who support the EU, from Meeks to Southam, are traitors.
Granted, but the point is that if they offer us a gold plated deal including services, then a few billion is OK.
Many billions would, but why would they offer that? It would entail rolling way back from their present stance, not adjusting it a bit during negotiation. The latter is conceivable, but the former is much harder to imagine.
Only 35% of Melenchon supporters said they would vote for Macron of those who responded. What should also be worrying is what is not stated in the article - if you took the figures for those who responded, the three answers of will spoil the ballot, will not vote or will vote for Macron came to 100% i.e. there are likely to be some Melenchon voters out there who will vote for Le Pen but will not admit it.
I think the potential grey swan here might be if the allegations that the investigations on Fillon were a way for Hollande to help Macron get the job start to gain serious traction. In that case, I can see a number of Fillon supporters abstaining or possibly even voting Le Pen who, in many cases, is probably closer to their instincts.
Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.
I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.
I'm loving the election. The Abbott interview is the single funniest interview in the history of politics. It just IS. Find me something better.
I don't know whether it's better but there is this:
So when Tezza "negotiates" the bill from 100bn back down to 60, the Brexiteers will hail that as a triumph, right?
No. If they offer a magnificent trade deal including passporting for between £10 and £20 billion, that would be fine. Otherwise no.
In what world do we want to belong to a gang which says "the price of Leaving is sixty billion, no, eighty billion, no, fuck off, let's ask for a hundred billion, fuck you Brits! Hahahahah!!"
They are worthy merely of contempt. Brits who support the EU, from Meeks to Southam, are traitors.
Granted, but the point is that if they offer us a gold plated deal including services, then a few billion is OK.
Sure. But they won't. It's Black Hole Brexit.
Indeed.
Pay the EU for a trade deal and it will take the money and then raise new obstructions and demand more money.
Alzheimer rates for men have dropped to a third of the level they were at a few years ago. Alzheimer rates for women have stayed high, and now much higher than men's. So not a feature of old age then, something that can be changed,
That is really quite interesting. Got a link?
I don't think that it is true, looking at the age standardised Alzheimers rates published here on the ONS website:
Only 35% of Melenchon supporters said they would vote for Macron of those who responded. What should also be worrying is what is not stated in the article - if you took the figures for those who responded, the three answers of will spoil the ballot, will not vote or will vote for Macron came to 100% i.e. there are likely to be some Melenchon voters out there who will vote for Le Pen but will not admit it.
I think the potential grey swan here might be if the allegations that the investigations on Fillon were a way for Hollande to help Macron get the job start to gain serious traction. In that case, I can see a number of Fillon supporters abstaining or possibly even voting Le Pen who, in many cases, is probably closer to their instincts.
While we marvel at Diane's meltdown, just remember, she is not the worst media performer in the shadow cabinet...
Can we have Lady Emily tomorrow please, I don't think she's yet been asked how she will celebrate her party's proposal for a public holiday on St George's day.
*whispers*
Thornberry is actually much more impressive, and rather clever, and handles questions well. And lshe's not helplessly posh. Labour could do worse, as they steer away from Corbyn.
What's the price on her, post-Corbyn? Labour's first women leader. I'd go for her, if I were them.
Come off it mate, white van man loathes her, she'd be as bad as Corbyn
Thornberry is actually pretty good. And she has a very nice voice. She took a picture of England flags. But there it is.
She sneered at the working class I think you meant to say
If you say so. I would say she ripped the piss out of a numbnut who made his house look crap!
Yes, flying the flag would tend to get some Labour types thinking that.
The rest of us however......
When did you last have an England flag on your house?
Wouldn't dare where I live ;-)
Thornberry stood in Canterbury in 2001 at the height of Blair- she or her team came into my shop every morning for coffee and croissants-they met every morning just down the road.
She really is not a nice person and really is a sneering snob towards the peasants in the burbs.
Only 35% of Melenchon supporters said they would vote for Macron of those who responded. What should also be worrying is what is not stated in the article - if you took the figures for those who responded, the three answers of will spoil the ballot, will not vote or will vote for Macron came to 100% i.e. there are likely to be some Melenchon voters out there who will vote for Le Pen but will not admit it.
I think the potential grey swan here might be if the allegations that the investigations on Fillon were a way for Hollande to help Macron get the job start to gain serious traction. In that case, I can see a number of Fillon supporters abstaining or possibly even voting Le Pen who, in many cases, is probably closer to their instincts.
Macron's still way our in front though, isn't he?
He is and I think he will probably win but the above would suggest he may not be overwhelming.
For those who think a big TM majority will mean she can face down the Hardliners on Brexit, think about this. Most of the new voters to the Conservatives will have come from UKIP and many of those will have been ex-Labour originally. TM will know that her big majority rests on keeping their support. So will the MPs who have won those seats. So why the hell is she going to even think about disappointing those people and face the risk that they return back to UKIP?
The re-toxification of the Conservative party. Going back to it's nasty roots. Short term plus, maybe long term pain - let's see...
So when Tezza "negotiates" the bill from 100bn back down to 60, the Brexiteers will hail that as a triumph, right?
No. If they offer a magnificent trade deal including passporting for between £10 and £20 billion, that would be fine. Otherwise no.
In what world do we want to belong to a gang which says "the price of Leaving is sixty billion, no, eighty billion, no, fuck off, let's ask for a hundred billion, fuck you Brits! Hahahahah!!"
They are worthy merely of contempt. Brits who support the EU, from Meeks to Southam, are traitors.
Granted, but the point is that if they offer us a gold plated deal including services, then a few billion is OK.
Sure. But they won't. It's Black Hole Brexit.
Granted though I prefer Diamond Brexit as it has more sparkle.
Only 35% of Melenchon supporters said they would vote for Macron of those who responded. What should also be worrying is what is not stated in the article - if you took the figures for those who responded, the three answers of will spoil the ballot, will not vote or will vote for Macron came to 100% i.e. there are likely to be some Melenchon voters out there who will vote for Le Pen but will not admit it.
I think the potential grey swan here might be if the allegations that the investigations on Fillon were a way for Hollande to help Macron get the job start to gain serious traction. In that case, I can see a number of Fillon supporters abstaining or possibly even voting Le Pen who, in many cases, is probably closer to their instincts.
A few minutes ago you said to bet on a sure thing. Macron is that sure thing in every poll, with no sign of LePen having any momentum in a 2 horse race.
Only 35% of Melenchon supporters said they would vote for Macron of those who responded. What should also be worrying is what is not stated in the article - if you took the figures for those who responded, the three answers of will spoil the ballot, will not vote or will vote for Macron came to 100% i.e. there are likely to be some Melenchon voters out there who will vote for Le Pen but will not admit it.
I think the potential grey swan here might be if the allegations that the investigations on Fillon were a way for Hollande to help Macron get the job start to gain serious traction. In that case, I can see a number of Fillon supporters abstaining or possibly even voting Le Pen who, in many cases, is probably closer to their instincts.
Macron's still way our in front though, isn't he?
He is and I think he will probably win but the above would suggest he may not be overwhelming.
Le Pen would have beaten him in r1 if she was going to stand any chance.
Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.
I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.
I'm loving the election. The Abbott interview is the single funniest interview in the history of politics. It just IS. Find me something better.
I don't know whether it's better but there is this:
So when Tezza "negotiates" the bill from 100bn back down to 60, the Brexiteers will hail that as a triumph, right?
No. If they offer a magnificent trade deal including passporting for between £10 and £20 billion, that would be fine. Otherwise no.
In what world do we want to belong to a gang which says "the price of Leaving is sixty billion, no, eighty billion, no, fuck off, let's ask for a hundred billion, fuck you Brits! Hahahahah!!"
They are worthy merely of contempt. Brits who support the EU, from Meeks to Southam, are traitors.
Granted, but the point is that if they offer us a gold plated deal including services, then a few billion is OK.
Many billions would, but why would they offer that? It would entail rolling way back from their present stance, not adjusting it a bit during negotiation. The latter is conceivable, but the former is much harder to imagine.
they may be pushing hard to paint a dark picture, maybe Juncker is playing hard cop, who knows?
Ridiculous. They know we won;t just meekly hand over €100bn for nothing.
We need to wait until not only our election but Merkel's is over. Then everyone can stop the silly posturing and have a grown up negotiation
Maybe we should counter with minus 50bn ?
That might be classed as posturing.
If they don't want to negotiate we should just walk away and get on with making the best of it.
5.5% tariffs is outweighed by the fall in the £ anyway for exporters. Imports will be expensive but we import too much crap anyway
We'll manage, though we'll be worse off for a few years.
How about they give us £100 billion?
I don't know what they are smoking. Looks like they want to make a deal as difficult as possible. Perhaps we need a plan B, (who knows perhaps it's underway) which would be to invite others to peal off to a free trade deal. Ireland and Denmark spring to mind.
If the EU want Brexit to fail then the surest way is to push us out without any sort of deal. At the moment it looks like that is their intention so what they are doing is therefore quite logical from their perspective, it's not that hard to figure out really.
So when Tezza "negotiates" the bill from 100bn back down to 60, the Brexiteers will hail that as a triumph, right?
No. If they offer a magnificent trade deal including passporting for between £10 and £20 billion, that would be fine. Otherwise no.
In what world do we want to belong to a gang which says "the price of Leaving is sixty billion, no, eighty billion, no, fuck off, let's ask for a hundred billion, fuck you Brits! Hahahahah!!"
They are worthy merely of contempt. Brits who support the EU, from Meeks to Southam, are traitors.
I'm increasingly of the viewpoint that the EU has always been fundamentally anti-British.
Just think back to its inception in the 1950s.
Its beyond doubt that the first half of the twentieth century was sub-optimal for the Germany and France. Germany has lost lots of territory, had millions killed, its country smashed up and its reputation ruined. France has had millions killed, its territory smashed up and been humiliated (with more to come in Indochina and Algeria).
And then they look at Britain - far, far fewer casualties and damage and they know that Britain will forever be smugly telling them about the War.
And then beyond Britain they look at the USA - hardly any damage or casualties and so rich and they know that the USA will be using its wealth and power to impose its worldview and culture upon them.
If you were a French or German politician or banker or grand bureaucrat wouldn't you be filled with resentment at the English speaking countries ?
The first part half of the 20th century was pretty catastrophic for British power in the world as well.
Being victorious in the world wars seems to have shielded us from the reality of our diminished status, and speaking the same language as the Americans compounded the problem because it was easy to myth-make about passing the torch and the 'special relationship'. If I were a French or German politician or banker or grand bureaucrat I'd wonder instead when the British will move on and accept that they are a European nation on an equal footing that could and should play a full role without any hangups.
So when Tezza "negotiates" the bill from 100bn back down to 60, the Brexiteers will hail that as a triumph, right?
No. If they offer a magnificent trade deal including passporting for between £10 and £20 billion, that would be fine. Otherwise no.
In what world do we want to belong to a gang which says "the price of Leaving is sixty billion, no, eighty billion, no, fuck off, let's ask for a hundred billion, fuck you Brits! Hahahahah!!"
They are worthy merely of contempt. Brits who support the EU, from Meeks to Southam, are traitors.
Granted, but the point is that if they offer us a gold plated deal including services, then a few billion is OK.
Many billions would, but why would they offer that? It would entail rolling way back from their present stance, not adjusting it a bit during negotiation. The latter is conceivable, but the former is much harder to imagine.
they may be pushing hard to paint a dark picture, maybe Juncker is playing hard cop, who knows?
Then they don't understand us any more than they claim we don't understand them.
Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.
I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.
I'm loving the election. The Abbott interview is the single funniest interview in the history of politics. It just IS. Find me something better.
I don't know whether it's better but there is this:
foxinsoxuk - it was reported perhaps six months ago, didn't think of taking a note. Anecdotally, one of my mother's carers mentioned how many of her clients had fit and healthy husbands that "came bouncing in" to the ward to see them.
Only 35% of Melenchon supporters said they would vote for Macron of those who responded. What should also be worrying is what is not stated in the article - if you took the figures for those who responded, the three answers of will spoil the ballot, will not vote or will vote for Macron came to 100% i.e. there are likely to be some Melenchon voters out there who will vote for Le Pen but will not admit it.
I think the potential grey swan here might be if the allegations that the investigations on Fillon were a way for Hollande to help Macron get the job start to gain serious traction. In that case, I can see a number of Fillon supporters abstaining or possibly even voting Le Pen who, in many cases, is probably closer to their instincts.
Macron's still way our in front though, isn't he?
In practice his vote is substantially softer.
Also who in their right mind is going to admin that they will vote Le Pen?
Macron really seems to be disliked by the right on here "Flash in the pan" Macron pre round 1 vote, some dude whose "social analysis" apparently had Fillon winning. It's a really incomprehensible trait, I dunno maybe these are the ones backing Le Pen.
Only 35% of Melenchon supporters said they would vote for Macron of those who responded. What should also be worrying is what is not stated in the article - if you took the figures for those who responded, the three answers of will spoil the ballot, will not vote or will vote for Macron came to 100% i.e. there are likely to be some Melenchon voters out there who will vote for Le Pen but will not admit it.
I think the potential grey swan here might be if the allegations that the investigations on Fillon were a way for Hollande to help Macron get the job start to gain serious traction. In that case, I can see a number of Fillon supporters abstaining or possibly even voting Le Pen who, in many cases, is probably closer to their instincts.
Macron's still way our in front though, isn't he?
In practice his vote is substantially softer.
Also who in their right mind is going to admin that they will vote Le Pen?
Exactly what was being said before the first round. In that round the polls were very accurate, though possibly slightly underestimated Macron and overestimated Le Pen
In what world do we want to belong to a gang which says "the price of Leaving is sixty billion, no, eighty billion, no, fuck off, let's ask for a hundred billion, fuck you Brits! Hahahahah!!"
They are worthy merely of contempt. Brits who support the EU, from Meeks to Southam, are traitors.
I'm increasingly of the viewpoint that the EU has always been fundamentally anti-British.
Just think back to its inception in the 1950s.
Its beyond doubt that the first half of the twentieth century was sub-optimal for the Germany and France. Germany has lost lots of territory, had millions killed, its country smashed up and its reputation ruined. France has had millions killed, its territory smashed up and been humiliated (with more to come in Indochina and Algeria).
And then they look at Britain - far, far fewer casualties and damage and they know that Britain will forever be smugly telling them about the War.
And then beyond Britain they look at the USA - hardly any damage or casualties and so rich and they know that the USA will be using its wealth and power to impose its worldview and culture upon them.
If you were a French or German politician or banker or grand bureaucrat wouldn't you be filled with resentment at the English speaking countries ?
Possibly. Some of them maybe see Brexit as epochal revenge on the resented and victorious Anglo-Saxons. We saved them - from themselves! - they hate us for that.
But I genuinely believe most of them are beyond that, and their present posturing is more about saving the EU, with some psychological loathing for Britain which continuously opts-out ("asks for more sausage", as the Germans put it) while enjoying the benefits of membership.
They easily forget the ten billion we provide, every year, though now they have recalled.
Most of them are nice, decent people, who - I am very sure - seek no deliberate harm to the UK. But all of us are being driven by geopolitical and psychosocial forces now out of control, like the forces that drove us to WW1.
I fear the worst. Though the UK will, I think, survive and prosper in the longterm.
I do think there is some deep resentment that the little offshore island won.
Its English which is the world language, its Shakespeare not Moliere which is translated into Chinese and Klingon, its S K Tremayne who tops the German booksales and not S K Hincklehoffer who tops the British booksales etc. In a thousand years time it will be English spoken on new planets while French and German are the equivalent of Welsh.
For those who think a big TM majority will mean she can face down the Hardliners on Brexit, think about this. Most of the new voters to the Conservatives will have come from UKIP and many of those will have been ex-Labour originally. TM will know that her big majority rests on keeping their support. So will the MPs who have won those seats. So why the hell is she going to even think about disappointing those people and face the risk that they return back to UKIP?
The counter argument would be that if she believes a hardline Brexit will be an economic disaster (and we have to assume she believed what she said in that speech to the bankers - Golman Sachs I think it was) then she would believe that working class voters would turn against both her and Brexit if sh went down that route.
'Possibly. The point is that a meeting of minds is receding as a possibility.'
Do you really think that there was ever a possibility of the meeting of minds,this type of behavior speaks volumes.Junker is clearly a very bitter man, his legacy is the break up of the EU.
He clearly believes that he can treat the UK like Greece & we will just roll over & throw in the towel.
Only 35% of Melenchon supporters said they would vote for Macron of those who responded. What should also be worrying is what is not stated in the article - if you took the figures for those who responded, the three answers of will spoil the ballot, will not vote or will vote for Macron came to 100% i.e. there are likely to be some Melenchon voters out there who will vote for Le Pen but will not admit it.
I think the potential grey swan here might be if the allegations that the investigations on Fillon were a way for Hollande to help Macron get the job start to gain serious traction. In that case, I can see a number of Fillon supporters abstaining or possibly even voting Le Pen who, in many cases, is probably closer to their instincts.
Macron's still way our in front though, isn't he?
In practice his vote is substantially softer.
Also who in their right mind is going to admin that they will vote Le Pen?
Well two things: His vote is apparently more solid than polling would suggest given the first round voting figures. Secondly the pollsters did not underestimate Le Pen's first round vote.
Ridiculous. They know we won;t just meekly hand over €100bn for nothing.
We need to wait until not only our election but Merkel's is over. Then everyone can stop the silly posturing and have a grown up negotiation
Maybe we should counter with minus 50bn ?
That might be classed as posturing.
If they don't want to negotiate we should just walk away and get on with making the best of it.
5.5% tariffs is outweighed by the fall in the £ anyway for exporters. Imports will be expensive but we import too much crap anyway
We'll manage, though we'll be worse off for a few years.
How about they give us £100 billion?
I don't know what they are smoking. Looks like they want to make a deal as difficult as possible. Perhaps we need a plan B, (who knows perhaps it's underway) which would be to invite others to peal off to a free trade deal. Ireland and Denmark spring to mind.
If the EU want Brexit to fail then the surest way is to push us out without any sort of deal. At the moment it looks like that is their intention so what they are doing is therefore quite logical from their perspective, it's not that hard to figure out really.
Quite, however it will not succeed as the UK will flourish with or without a trade deal with the EU.
Only 35% of Melenchon supporters said they would vote for Macron of those who responded. What should also be worrying is what is not stated in the article - if you took the figures for those who responded, the three answers of will spoil the ballot, will not vote or will vote for Macron came to 100% i.e. there are likely to be some Melenchon voters out there who will vote for Le Pen but will not admit it.
I think the potential grey swan here might be if the allegations that the investigations on Fillon were a way for Hollande to help Macron get the job start to gain serious traction. In that case, I can see a number of Fillon supporters abstaining or possibly even voting Le Pen who, in many cases, is probably closer to their instincts.
Macron's still way our in front though, isn't he?
In practice his vote is substantially softer.
Also who in their right mind is going to admin that they will vote Le Pen?
Exactly what was being said before the first round. In that round the polls were very accurate, though possibly slightly underestimated Macron and overestimated Le Pen
Yep, in the absence of a major poll shift I have to assume Macron will win handsomely, and good luck to him, I hope he's not an empty suit.
"In 2013, we were pleased to have facilitated Tommy Robinson’s departure from the leadership of the English Defence League. We think it unfortunate that, following our efforts to engage with Tommy Robinson and help him move away from extremism, he seems to have regressed."
So when Tezza "negotiates" the bill from 100bn back down to 60, the Brexiteers will hail that as a triumph, right?
No. If they offer a magnificent trade deal including passporting for between £10 and £20 billion, that would be fine. Otherwise no.
In what world do we want to belong to a gang which says "the price of Leaving is sixty billion, no, eighty billion, no, fuck off, let's ask for a hundred billion, fuck you Brits! Hahahahah!!"
They are worthy merely of contempt. Brits who support the EU, from Meeks to Southam, are traitors.
I'm increasingly of the viewpoint that the EU has always been fundamentally anti-British.
Just think back to its inception in the 1950s.
Its beyond doubt that the first half of the twentieth century was sub-optimal for the Germany and France. Germany has lost lots of territory, had millions killed, its country smashed up and its reputation ruined. France has had millions killed, its territory smashed up and been humiliated (with more to come in Indochina and Algeria).
And then they look at Britain - far, far fewer casualties and damage and they know that Britain will forever be smugly telling them about the War.
And then beyond Britain they look at the USA - hardly any damage or casualties and so rich and they know that the USA will be using its wealth and power to impose its worldview and culture upon them.
If you were a French or German politician or banker or grand bureaucrat wouldn't you be filled with resentment at the English speaking countries ?
The first part half of the 20th century was pretty catastrophic for British power in the world as well.
Being victorious in the world wars seems to have shielded us from the reality of our diminished status, and speaking the same language as the Americans compounded the problem because it was easy to myth-make about passing the torch and the 'special relationship'. If I were a French or German politician or banker or grand bureaucrat I'd wonder instead when the British will move on and accept that they are a European nation on an equal footing that could and should play a full role without any hangups.
And of course its the French and German politician, banker and grand bureaucrat who gets to determine what this role is to be.
Only 35% of Melenchon supporters said they would vote for Macron of those who responded. What should also be worrying is what is not stated in the article - if you took the figures for those who responded, the three answers of will spoil the ballot, will not vote or will vote for Macron came to 100% i.e. there are likely to be some Melenchon voters out there who will vote for Le Pen but will not admit it.
I think the potential grey swan here might be if the allegations that the investigations on Fillon were a way for Hollande to help Macron get the job start to gain serious traction. In that case, I can see a number of Fillon supporters abstaining or possibly even voting Le Pen who, in many cases, is probably closer to their instincts.
Macron's still way our in front though, isn't he?
In practice his vote is substantially softer.
Also who in their right mind is going to admin that they will vote Le Pen?
Exactly what was being said before the first round. In that round the polls were very accurate, though possibly slightly underestimated Macron and overestimated Le Pen
True, but he is now reaching out from that vote into the losers vote as is Le Pen.
I see the latest thing the nuttier Leavers are getting excited about is that the EU has the temerity to choose its own negotiating team. Words fail me.
You need to choose your side, and soon. You are a Brit, or you are a Hungarian/European and a foreigner. No more havering.
I assume that you hit gin o'clock a few hours ago.
I am British and European. I'm also a Londoner, English and Norfolk and good. I see no need to discard any of these identities just to please dimwitted maniacs.
Indeed. But this choice will soon be unavailable. The EU is simultaneously determined on 1. fleecing us, 2, humiliating us, 3, swindling us, and 4. making us look like fools and supplicants.
You need to find a position on this. As does every Briton. "Hey I Love Brussels and Europe and Hungary and Erasmus!" will not cut it any more.
The iron enters the soul.
No. I'm not one of the paranoiacs who regards every move by the EU as outrageous (the Times front page tomorrow is worthy of the Express). Far too many Leavers are acting as if they are high on Churchill's cigar smoke.
I'm trying to identify those Leavers who are now prepared to admit that their breezy assurance last year that Brexit would be quickly and painlessly negotiated was woefully misplaced. But all of them seem terribly bashful.
Only 35% of Melenchon supporters said they would vote for Macron of those who responded. What should also be worrying is what is not stated in the article - if you took the figures for those who responded, the three answers of will spoil the ballot, will not vote or will vote for Macron came to 100% i.e. there are likely to be some Melenchon voters out there who will vote for Le Pen but will not admit it.
I think the potential grey swan here might be if the allegations that the investigations on Fillon were a way for Hollande to help Macron get the job start to gain serious traction. In that case, I can see a number of Fillon supporters abstaining or possibly even voting Le Pen who, in many cases, is probably closer to their instincts.
A few minutes ago you said to bet on a sure thing. Macron is that sure thing in every poll, with no sign of LePen having any momentum in a 2 horse race.
I did indeed but, being the good doctor you are, I am sure you would have noted I said in the US and UK. I don't tend to bet on European elections because I do not feel as though I understand the political currents.
As I said, he will probably win but two things should worry him from that survey (1) he only gets a third of Melenchon votes and (2) the 100% tally almost certainly means there is a shy Le Pen factor out there.
I see the latest thing the nuttier Leavers are getting excited about is that the EU has the temerity to choose its own negotiating team. Words fail me.
You need to choose your side, and soon. You are a Brit, or you are a Hungarian/European and a foreigner. No more havering.
I assume that you hit gin o'clock a few hours ago.
I am British and European. I'm also a Londoner, English and Norfolk and good. I see no need to discard any of these identities just to please dimwitted maniacs.
Indeed. But this choice will soon be unavailable. The EU is simultaneously determined on 1. fleecing us, 2, humiliating us, 3, swindling us, and 4. making us look like fools and supplicants.
You need to find a position on this. As does every Briton. "Hey I Love Brussels and Europe and Hungary and Erasmus!" will not cut it any more.
The iron enters the soul.
No. I'm not one of the paranoiacs who regards every move by the EU as outrageous (the Times front page tomorrow is worthy of the Express). Far too many Leavers are acting as if they are high on Churchill's cigar smoke.
I'm trying to identify those Leavers who are now prepared to admit that their breezy assurance last year that Brexit would be quickly and painlessly negotiated was woefully misplaced. But all of them seem terribly bashful.
Do you have a list of those who did acknowledge it would be difficult and not without pain? Because they existed too.
Ridiculous. They know we won;t just meekly hand over €100bn for nothing.
We need to wait until not only our election but Merkel's is over. Then everyone can stop the silly posturing and have a grown up negotiation
Maybe we should counter with minus 50bn ?
That might be classed as posturing.
If they don't want to negotiate we should just walk away and get on with making the best of it.
5.5% tariffs is outweighed by the fall in the £ anyway for exporters. Imports will be expensive but we import too much crap anyway
We'll manage, though we'll be worse off for a few years.
How about they give us £100 billion?
I don't know what they are smoking. Looks like they want to make a deal as difficult as possible. Perhaps we need a plan B, (who knows perhaps it's underway) which would be to invite others to peal off to a free trade deal. Ireland and Denmark spring to mind.
If the EU want Brexit to fail then the surest way is to push us out without any sort of deal. At the moment it looks like that is their intention so what they are doing is therefore quite logical from their perspective, it's not that hard to figure out really.
Quite, however it will not succeed as the UK will flourish with or without a trade deal with the EU.
I do think there is some deep resentment that the little offshore island won.
I think you're projecting somewhat. I've spoken to a lot of people who instinctively don't like the idea of Britain being part of the EU, and a common sentiment is, "I thought we won." They find something viscerally objectionable about finding ourselves on equal, or inferior, terms with our neighbours.
'Possibly. The point is that a meeting of minds is receding as a possibility.'
Do you really think that there was ever a possibility of the meeting of minds,this type of behavior speaks volumes.Junker is clearly a very bitter man, his legacy is the break up of the EU.
He clearly believes that he can treat the UK like Greece & we will just roll over & throw in the towel.
No. I think that I have consistently said since last July that hard Brexit is nailed on, and soft Brexit is a chimera that is distracting from planning a controlled hard Brexit.
I dont think the EU27 expect us to change our minds or throw in the towel. They expect us to leave.
Macron really seems to be disliked by the right on here "Flash in the pan" Macron pre round 1 vote, some dude whose "social analysis" apparently had Fillon winning. It's a really incomprehensible trait, I dunno maybe these are the ones backing Le Pen.
I cannot speak for others but I don't want Le Pen and all our French friends think the same. To be fair to those who have criticised Macron, just because someone has expressed doubts does not make them a Le Pen supporter.
@GuardianAnushka: Have quoted sources claiming PM didn't want early election but was persuaded by aides who knew Brexit talks would get tough-tho they denying
The first part half of the 20th century was pretty catastrophic for British power in the world as well.
Being victorious in the world wars seems to have shielded us from the reality of our diminished status, and speaking the same language as the Americans compounded the problem because it was easy to myth-make about passing the torch and the 'special relationship'. If I were a French or German politician or banker or grand bureaucrat I'd wonder instead when the British will move on and accept that they are a European nation on an equal footing that could and should play a full role without any hangups.
I've no doubt that YOU personally would adopt that attitude towards Britain, but the fact is that the French and Germans never have done so and never will.
The EU is their project. They are the motor and always have been. They listen to us politely then ignore us. We are merely there to help pay for it all, and to relieve the pressure on the high unemployment rates.
Don't forget, we had our application for membership vetoed twice before they let us in...to help pay for the CAP. As for the CFP, that was a stitch-up.
"This was adopted on the morning of 30 June 1970, a few hours before the applications to join were officially received. This ensured that the regulations became part of the acquis communautaire before the new members joined, obliging them to accept the regulation." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Fisheries_Policy)
I see the latest thing the nuttier Leavers are getting excited about is that the EU has the temerity to choose its own negotiating team. Words fail me.
You need to choose your side, and soon. You are a Brit, or you are a Hungarian/European and a foreigner. No more havering.
I assume that you hit gin o'clock a few hours ago.
I am British and European. I'm also a Londoner, English and Norfolk and good. I see no need to discard any of these identities just to please dimwitted maniacs.
Indeed. But this choice will soon be unavailable. The EU is simultaneously determined on 1. fleecing us, 2, humiliating us, 3, swindling us, and 4. making us look like fools and supplicants.
You need to find a position on this. As does every Briton. "Hey I Love Brussels and Europe and Hungary and Erasmus!" will not cut it any more.
The iron enters the soul.
No. I'm not one of the paranoiacs who regards every move by the EU as outrageous (the Times front page tomorrow is worthy of the Express). Far too many Leavers are acting as if they are high on Churchill's cigar smoke.
I'm trying to identify those Leavers who are now prepared to admit that their breezy assurance last year that Brexit would be quickly and painlessly negotiated was woefully misplaced. But all of them seem terribly bashful.
Do you have a list of those who did acknowledge it would be difficult and not without pain? Because they existed too.
Only 35% of Melenchon supporters said they would vote for Macron of those who responded. What should also be worrying is what is not stated in the article - if you took the figures for those who responded, the three answers of will spoil the ballot, will not vote or will vote for Macron came to 100% i.e. there are likely to be some Melenchon voters out there who will vote for Le Pen but will not admit it.
I think the potential grey swan here might be if the allegations that the investigations on Fillon were a way for Hollande to help Macron get the job start to gain serious traction. In that case, I can see a number of Fillon supporters abstaining or possibly even voting Le Pen who, in many cases, is probably closer to their instincts.
Macron's still way our in front though, isn't he?
In practice his vote is substantially softer.
Also who in their right mind is going to admin that they will vote Le Pen?
Well two things: His vote is apparently more solid than polling would suggest given the first round voting figures. Secondly the pollsters did not underestimate Le Pen's first round vote.
The reason why Le Pen's vote apparently drifted in the first round was that Melenchon was attracting some of her supporters on the economic side. You would assume they would go back to Le Pen or at least not back Macron. If Macron only has 1/3 of Melenchon voters, then it suggests, net, he does not have much advantage over Le Pen from that base.
@GuardianAnushka: Have quoted sources claiming PM didn't want early election but was persuaded by aides who knew Brexit talks would get tough-tho they denying
Did I not post exactly that earlier on this afternoon ?
'Pay the EU for a trade deal and it will take the money and then raise new obstructions and demand more money.'
Spot on, good this has come to the surface already & everyone can see their true colors, is there anyone left in the UK that trusts Junker & his mafia mob?
I see the latest thing the nuttier Leavers are getting excited about is that the EU has the temerity to choose its own negotiating team. Words fail me.
You need to choose your side, and soon. You are a Brit, or you are a Hungarian/European and a foreigner. No more havering.
I assume that you hit gin o'clock a few hours ago.
I am British and European. I'm also a Londoner, English and Norfolk and good. I see no need to discard any of these identities just to please dimwitted maniacs.
Indeed. But this choice will soon be unavailable. The EU is simultaneously determined on 1. fleecing us, 2, humiliating us, 3, swindling us, and 4. making us look like fools and supplicants.
You need to find a position on this. As does every Briton. "Hey I Love Brussels and Europe and Hungary and Erasmus!" will not cut it any more.
The iron enters the soul.
No. I'm not one of the paranoiacs who regards every move by the EU as outrageous (the Times front page tomorrow is worthy of the Express). Far too many Leavers are acting as if they are high on Churchill's cigar smoke.
I'm trying to identify those Leavers who are now prepared to admit that their breezy assurance last year that Brexit would be quickly and painlessly negotiated was woefully misplaced. But all of them seem terribly bashful.
Do you have a list of those who did acknowledge it would be difficult and not without pain? Because they existed too.
Perhaps you could identify those Remainers who told us that a recession would follow a Leave vote ?
Here's one with a rather a good line in imagery:
' Britain’s Standard & Poors credit rating has dropped two notches, the pound has suffered its biggest fall in one day against the dollar ever, markets around the world have crashed and recession is beckoning with a dark cloak, a skeletal finger and a voice that speaks in block capitals '
I see the latest thing the nuttier Leavers are getting excited about is that the EU has the temerity to choose its own negotiating team. Words fail me.
You need to choose your side, and soon. You are a Brit, or you are a Hungarian/European and a foreigner. No more havering.
I assume that you hit gin o'clock a few hours ago.
I am British and European. I'm also a Londoner, English and Norfolk and good. I see no need to discard any of these identities just to please dimwitted maniacs.
Indeed. But this choice will soon be unavailable. The EU is simultaneously determined on 1. fleecing us, 2, humiliating us, 3, swindling us, and 4. making us look like fools and supplicants.
You need to find a position on this. As does every Briton. "Hey I Love Brussels and Europe and Hungary and Erasmus!" will not cut it any more.
The iron enters the soul.
No. I'm not one of the paranoiacs who regards every move by the EU as outrageous (the Times front page tomorrow is worthy of the Express). Far too many Leavers are acting as if they are high on Churchill's cigar smoke.
I'm trying to identify those Leavers who are now prepared to admit that their breezy assurance last year that Brexit would be quickly and painlessly negotiated was woefully misplaced. But all of them seem terribly bashful.
I anticipated blood, anger, diminishment, and, at some point, deep deep regret. But then: parenthood, the richest experience available to a human being.
I can see all the way up to the deep deep regret. But a decision procured by a metropolitan elite telling xenophobic lies is not going to lead to rich experiences.
I see the latest thing the nuttier Leavers are getting excited about is that the EU has the temerity to choose its own negotiating team. Words fail me.
You need to choose your side, and soon. You are a Brit, or you are a Hungarian/European and a foreigner. No more havering.
I assume that you hit gin o'clock a few hours ago.
I am British and European. I'm also a Londoner, English and Norfolk and good. I see no need to discard any of these identities just to please dimwitted maniacs.
Indeed. But this choice will soon be unavailable. The EU is simultaneously determined on 1. fleecing us, 2, humiliating us, 3, swindling us, and 4. making us look like fools and supplicants.
You need to find a position on this. As does every Briton. "Hey I Love Brussels and Europe and Hungary and Erasmus!" will not cut it any more.
The iron enters the soul.
No. I'm not one of the paranoiacs who regards every move by the EU as outrageous (the Times front page tomorrow is worthy of the Express). Far too many Leavers are acting as if they are high on Churchill's cigar smoke.
I'm trying to identify those Leavers who are now prepared to admit that their breezy assurance last year that Brexit would be quickly and painlessly negotiated was woefully misplaced. But all of them seem terribly bashful.
Do you have a list of those who did acknowledge it would be difficult and not without pain? Because they existed too.
Perhaps you could identify those Remainers who told us that a recession would follow a Leave vote ?
Here's one with a rather a good line in imagery:
' Britain’s Standard & Poors credit rating has dropped two notches, the pound has suffered its biggest fall in one day against the dollar ever, markets around the world have crashed and recession is beckoning with a dark cloak, a skeletal finger and a voice that speaks in block capitals '
Sterlind is definitely still than pre-brexit times.
I've no doubt that YOU personally would adopt that attitude towards Britain, but the fact is that the French and Germans never have done so and never will.
The EU is their project. They are the motor and always have been. They listen to us politely then ignore us. We are merely there to help pay for it all, and to relieve the pressure on the high unemployment rates.
Don't forget, we had our application for membership vetoed twice before they let us in...to help pay for the CAP. As for the CFP, that was a stitch-up.
We made a major strategic mistake in not joining from the very beginning, and it was an outrage that De Gaulle vetoed us, but that's ancient history now. The question is where do we go from here.
PB will be offline for a bit whilst I delete the thread I wrote earlier on this year, tipping Diane Abbott as next Labour leader.
No need to overreact - in a world where they are apparently planning for Corbyn to stay on even if Lab suffer a landslide loss, and would likely win a contest, why not Abbott?
Where is your evidence that Corbyn would win a contest in the event of a defeat? I believe polling of the selectorate shows otherwise...
It was a supposition.
What genuinely puzzles me is why Corbyn is putting himself through this campaign only to face heavy defeat and humiliation. Within four months of the election he will have been ousted - if he fails to stand down. It seems an act of pure masochism which sits alongside his lack of core survival instincts evidenced by his failure to block the election.
I know this seems mad but I really think he believes he can win. Can you imagine the sort of bunker atmosphere there must be in Labour HQ, after the coup attempts, hostile media coverage, resignations? If you turn on the taps Kool And will come out. Another Corbyn Trump parallel..
The "inside story" books are going to be well worth the money.
I see the latest thing the nuttier Leavers are getting excited about is that the EU has the temerity to choose its own negotiating team. Words fail me.
You need to choose your side, and soon. You are a Brit, or you are a Hungarian/European and a foreigner. No more havering.
I assume that you hit gin o'clock a few hours ago.
I am British and European. I'm also a Londoner, English and Norfolk and good. I see no need to discard any of these identities just to please dimwitted maniacs.
Indeed. But this choice will soon be unavailable. The EU is simultaneously determined on 1. fleecing us, 2, humiliating us, 3, swindling us, and 4. making us look like fools and supplicants.
You need to find a position on this. As does every Briton. "Hey I Love Brussels and Europe and Hungary and Erasmus!" will not cut it any more.
The iron enters the soul.
No. I'm not one of the paranoiacs who regards every move by the EU as outrageous (the Times front page tomorrow is worthy of the Express). Far too many Leavers are acting as if they are high on Churchill's cigar smoke.
I'm trying to identify those Leavers who are now prepared to admit that their breezy assurance last year that Brexit would be quickly and painlessly negotiated was woefully misplaced. But all of them seem terribly bashful.
Do you have a list of those who did acknowledge it would be difficult and not without pain? Because they existed too.
Perhaps you could identify those Remainers who told us that a recession would follow a Leave vote ?
Here's one with a rather a good line in imagery:
' Britain’s Standard & Poors credit rating has dropped two notches, the pound has suffered its biggest fall in one day against the dollar ever, markets around the world have crashed and recession is beckoning with a dark cloak, a skeletal finger and a voice that speaks in block capitals '
Three facts and a (widely shared at the time, including among Leavers) deduction. I'm not embarrassed by that.
Now, will you accept that Leavers were absurdly overoptimistic about the course of Brexit negotiations? It would be refreshing if some of those Leavers were to start owning up. They were happy enough to shoot the messenger on the thread I just linked to.
I see the latest thing the nuttier Leavers are getting excited about is that the EU has the temerity to choose its own negotiating team. Words fail me.
You need to choose your side, and soon. You are a Brit, or you are a Hungarian/European and a foreigner. No more havering.
I assume that you hit gin o'clock a few hours ago.
I am British and European. I'm also a Londoner, English and Norfolk and good. I see no need to discard any of these identities just to please dimwitted maniacs.
Indeed. But this choice will soon be unavailable. The EU is simultaneously determined on 1. fleecing us, 2, humiliating us, 3, swindling us, and 4. making us look like fools and supplicants.
You need to find a position on this. As does every Briton. "Hey I Love Brussels and Europe and Hungary and Erasmus!" will not cut it any more.
The iron enters the soul.
No. I'm not one of the paranoiacs who regards every move by the EU as outrageous (the Times front page tomorrow is worthy of the Express). Far too many Leavers are acting as if they are high on Churchill's cigar smoke.
I'm trying to identify those Leavers who are now prepared to admit that their breezy assurance last year that Brexit would be quickly and painlessly negotiated was woefully misplaced. But all of them seem terribly bashful.
Do you have a list of those who did acknowledge it would be difficult and not without pain? Because they existed too.
"I think leave have had a few good days but everyone is talking to themsselves while turning the public off. Will start to be interesting by May and the debates, if agreed, will have quite an influence. However leave won't get away with an incoherant plan indefinately and they have two months to get their act (s) together"
I see the latest thing the nuttier Leavers are getting excited about is that the EU has the temerity to choose its own negotiating team. Words fail me.
You need to choose your side, and soon. You are a Brit, or you are a Hungarian/European and a foreigner. No more havering.
I assume that you hit gin o'clock a few hours ago.
I am British and European. I'm also a Londoner, English and Norfolk and good. I see no need to discard any of these identities just to please dimwitted maniacs.
Indeed. But this choice will soon be unavailable. The EU is simultaneously determined on 1. fleecing us, 2, humiliating us, 3, swindling us, and 4. making us look like fools and supplicants.
You need to find a position on this. As does every Briton. "Hey I Love Brussels and Europe and Hungary and Erasmus!" will not cut it any more.
The iron enters the soul.
No. I'm not one of the paranoiacs who regards every move by the EU as outrageous (the Times front page tomorrow is worthy of the Express). Far too many Leavers are acting as if they are high on Churchill's cigar smoke.
I'm trying to identify those Leavers who are now prepared to admit that their breezy assurance last year that Brexit would be quickly and painlessly negotiated was woefully misplaced. But all of them seem terribly bashful.
Do you have a list of those who did acknowledge it would be difficult and not without pain? Because they existed too.
I'm sure there was plenty of bitching, people haven't calmed down a year later. I didn't say they, we, were a majority, nor that that view would be advanced 100% of the time. Point is, if your deciding to play gotcha with people who quite incorrectly said it would be easy, there were people who often said it wouldn't.
Anyone who said there was no risk and would be no pain was a fool. Project fear told people there would be, and hopefully voters took that into account rather than merely ignored it, but we are where we are. At present the person must right is foxinsox, and rather than waste time both sides need to get on with mitigating for the pain.
I see the latest thing the nuttier Leavers are getting excited about is that the EU has the temerity to choose its own negotiating team. Words fail me.
You need to choose your side, and soon. You are a Brit, or you are a Hungarian/European and a foreigner. No more havering.
I assume that you hit gin o'clock a few hours ago.
I am British and European. I'm also a Londoner, English and Norfolk and good. I see no need to discard any of these identities just to please dimwitted maniacs.
Indeed. But this choice will soon be unavailable. The EU is simultaneously determined on 1. fleecing us, 2, humiliating us, 3, swindling us, and 4. making us look like fools and supplicants.
You need to find a position on this. As does every Briton. "Hey I Love Brussels and Europe and Hungary and Erasmus!" will not cut it any more.
The iron enters the soul.
No. I'm not one of the paranoiacs who regards every move by the EU as outrageous (the Times front page tomorrow is worthy of the Express). Far too many Leavers are acting as if they are high on Churchill's cigar smoke.
I'm trying to identify those Leavers who are now prepared to admit that their breezy assurance last year that Brexit would be quickly and painlessly negotiated was woefully misplaced. But all of them seem terribly bashful.
Do you have a list of those who did acknowledge it would be difficult and not without pain? Because they existed too.
Perhaps you could identify those Remainers who told us that a recession would follow a Leave vote ?
Here's one with a rather a good line in imagery:
' Britain’s Standard & Poors credit rating has dropped two notches, the pound has suffered its biggest fall in one day against the dollar ever, markets around the world have crashed and recession is beckoning with a dark cloak, a skeletal finger and a voice that speaks in block capitals '
Sterlind is definitely still than pre-brexit times.
It is, which is great for much needed economic rebalancing.
And the extra 1% on inflation is peanuts compared to how much share prices have increased.
Which I think is not to be underestimated in boosting government support - there are many millions of voters with defined contributions pension pots.
The behaviour of the EU, since Brexit, has horribly lived up to too every eurosceptics' darkest nightmare, in regard to their deviousness, nastiness and malice.
This is not a jolly democratic club, it is, literally, a mafia. They WANT to harm us. They WANT us to suffer. You are either part of the gang or you get your ear sliced off by Romania. They have no interest in a deal. They are c*nts.
How could anyone want to be part of this. We have friends, good friends, around the English speaking world and beyond. They are our true allies. The EU was a pathetic delusion.
That BBC documentary about populist movements across Europe who are anti-EU was really telling. When asked what was their response to people questioning the way the EU ran, the reply was well what we need is more power with the EU commission....not even a faux we should listen and see what is going wrong...no no, what was wrong was the EU project currently wasn't finished and until it is, every issue is because of that.
The behaviour of the EU, since Brexit, has horribly lived up to too every eurosceptics' darkest nightmare, in regard to their deviousness, nastiness and malice.
This is not a jolly democratic club, it is, literally, a mafia. They WANT to harm us. They WANT us to suffer. You are either part of the gang or you get your ear sliced off by Romania. They have no interest in a deal. They are c*nts.
How could anyone want to be part of this. We have friends, good friends, around the English speaking world and beyond. They are our true allies. The EU was a pathetic delusion.
That BBC documentary about populist movements across Europe who are anti-EU was really telling. When asked what was their response to people questioning the way the EU ran, the reply was well what we need is more power with the EU commission....not even a faux we should listen and see what is going wrong...no no, what was wrong was the EU project currently wasn't finished and until it is, every issue is because of that.
They really are that bonkers. The solution to every problem, especially too much EU is more EU. Oh dear.
Comments
The Pescara midfielder Sulley Muntari has been banned for one match after walking off the pitch at Cagliari on Sunday following racist abuse from the home crowd. Muntari was booked for complaining to the referee about the abuse, before walking off the pitch and earning a second yellow card.
Serie A’s disciplinary committee added that no action would be taken against Cagliari over the incident. The committee described the chanting as deplorable but claimed that “an approximate number of only 10” individuals were involved, not enough to warrant a punishment against the club under Serie A rules.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/may/02/sulley-muntari-ban-upheld-cagliari-racist-abuse
@britainelects
Northern Irish Westminster voting intention:
DUP: 29%
SF: 28%
SDLP: 12%
UUP: 15%
ALLI: 10%
GRN: 2%
(via @LucidTalk / surveyed last week)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/adhocs/006324numberofdeathsandagestandardisedrateper100000populationfordementiaandalzheimersdeathscombinedbasedondeathsregisteredinenglandwales2004to2014
Rates for women are higher than men, fairly consistently, and rates do seem to be rising, at least to 2014 where the data ends.
DUP and SF both up 3%
Brexiteers = idiots
Simples!
I am British and European. I'm also a Londoner, English and Norfolk and good. I see no need to discard any of these identities just to please dimwitted maniacs.
It provides a step of moral superiority for them to stand on and a social comfort blanket
I find it "interesting" that Labour-rightly-kick out someone who wants to ban Islam but allows the Jew baiters to carry on regardless.
And yet we have to hear a sermon from Don on the moral righteousness of the Left
Just think back to its inception in the 1950s.
Its beyond doubt that the first half of the twentieth century was sub-optimal for the Germany and France. Germany has lost lots of territory, had millions killed, its country smashed up and its reputation ruined. France has had millions killed, its territory smashed up and been humiliated (with more to come in Indochina and Algeria).
And then they look at Britain - far, far fewer casualties and damage and they know that Britain will forever be smugly telling them about the War.
And then beyond Britain they look at the USA - hardly any damage or casualties and so rich and they know that the USA will be using its wealth and power to impose its worldview and culture upon them.
If you were a French or German politician or banker or grand bureaucrat wouldn't you be filled with resentment at the English speaking countries ?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/02/majority-of-melenchon-supporters-will-not-back-emmanuel-macron-poll-finds
Only 35% of Melenchon supporters said they would vote for Macron of those who responded. What should also be worrying is what is not stated in the article - if you took the figures for those who responded, the three answers of will spoil the ballot, will not vote or will vote for Macron came to 100% i.e. there are likely to be some Melenchon voters out there who will vote for Le Pen but will not admit it.
I think the potential grey swan here might be if the allegations that the investigations on Fillon were a way for Hollande to help Macron get the job start to gain serious traction. In that case, I can see a number of Fillon supporters abstaining or possibly even voting Le Pen who, in many cases, is probably closer to their instincts.
Lab -8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCem9EZb-YA
Pay the EU for a trade deal and it will take the money and then raise new obstructions and demand more money.
She really is not a nice person and really is a sneering snob towards the peasants in the burbs.
The "flag" tweet was her to a T
'May and the Brexiteers are in another galaxy to the EU.'
The EU is in the Abbott galaxy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/
Being victorious in the world wars seems to have shielded us from the reality of our diminished status, and speaking the same language as the Americans compounded the problem because it was easy to myth-make about passing the torch and the 'special relationship'. If I were a French or German politician or banker or grand bureaucrat I'd wonder instead when the British will move on and accept that they are a European nation on an equal footing that could and should play a full role without any hangups.
Also who in their right mind is going to admin that they will vote Le Pen?
Its English which is the world language, its Shakespeare not Moliere which is translated into Chinese and Klingon, its S K Tremayne who tops the German booksales and not S K Hincklehoffer who tops the British booksales etc. In a thousand years time it will be English spoken on new planets while French and German are the equivalent of Welsh.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-1UAkyWAAEE6zS.jpg:large
The counter argument would be that if she believes a hardline Brexit will be an economic disaster (and we have to assume she believed what she said in that speech to the bankers - Golman Sachs I think it was) then she would believe that working class voters would turn against both her and Brexit if sh went down that route.
'Possibly. The point is that a meeting of minds is receding as a possibility.'
Do you really think that there was ever a possibility of the meeting of minds,this type of behavior speaks volumes.Junker is clearly a very bitter man, his legacy is the break up of the EU.
He clearly believes that he can treat the UK like Greece & we will just roll over & throw in the towel.
His vote is apparently more solid than polling would suggest given the first round voting figures.
Secondly the pollsters did not underestimate Le Pen's first round vote.
https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/859440298342133760
I'm trying to identify those Leavers who are now prepared to admit that their breezy assurance last year that Brexit would be quickly and painlessly negotiated was woefully misplaced. But all of them seem terribly bashful.
As I said, he will probably win but two things should worry him from that survey (1) he only gets a third of Melenchon votes and (2) the 100% tally almost certainly means there is a shy Le Pen factor out there.
I dont think the EU27 expect us to change our minds or throw in the towel. They expect us to leave.
The EU is their project. They are the motor and always have been. They listen to us politely then ignore us. We are merely there to help pay for it all, and to relieve the pressure on the high unemployment rates.
Don't forget, we had our application for membership vetoed twice before they let us in...to help pay for the CAP. As for the CFP, that was a stitch-up.
"This was adopted on the morning of 30 June 1970, a few hours before the applications to join were officially received. This ensured that the regulations became part of the acquis communautaire before the new members joined, obliging them to accept the regulation." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Fisheries_Policy)
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/03/02/the-idea-that-post-brexit-trade-negotiations-would-be-wrapped-up-quickly-is-divorced-from-reality/
'Pay the EU for a trade deal and it will take the money and then raise new obstructions and demand more money.'
Spot on, good this has come to the surface already & everyone can see their true colors, is there anyone left in the UK that trusts Junker & his mafia mob?
Here's one with a rather a good line in imagery:
' Britain’s Standard & Poors credit rating has dropped two notches, the pound has suffered its biggest fall in one day against the dollar ever, markets around the world have crashed and recession is beckoning with a dark cloak, a skeletal finger and a voice that speaks in block capitals '
Now, will you accept that Leavers were absurdly overoptimistic about the course of Brexit negotiations? It would be refreshing if some of those Leavers were to start owning up. They were happy enough to shoot the messenger on the thread I just linked to.
I quite like Big_John_NorthWales:
"I think leave have had a few good days but everyone is talking to themsselves while turning the public off. Will start to be interesting by May and the debates, if agreed, will have quite an influence. However leave won't get away with an incoherant plan indefinately and they have two months to get their act (s) together"
A year on and the Leave plan is still incoherent.
Anyone who said there was no risk and would be no pain was a fool. Project fear told people there would be, and hopefully voters took that into account rather than merely ignored it, but we are where we are. At present the person must right is foxinsox, and rather than waste time both sides need to get on with mitigating for the pain.
And the extra 1% on inflation is peanuts compared to how much share prices have increased.
Which I think is not to be underestimated in boosting government support - there are many millions of voters with defined contributions pension pots.
Good night!