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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For LAB the onjective is to avert a Tory landslide – but how
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For LAB the onjective is to avert a Tory landslide – but how
For many years Theresa May’s main claim to fame was her bravery in telling the Tories they’re the Nasty Party.
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Edit: Oops, third!
Edit 2: Fifth.
I have mis-spoken twice!
Nobody doubts it lives on, Don, where they disagree is whether nastiness is inherent in a party's makeup and unique to only one party. Only partisan fools claim that theirs is the only morally decent party, rather than that of the options they are the most morally decent.
So it is not about whether nastiness lives on, but whether it is endemic.
By an armed revolution similar to 1917.
Only one wee problem, they aren't capable of launching one. Just ain't good enough.
She asserted that the reasons were untrue. I don't fully buy TMay's explanation either, but do they public care? Currently not.
From the party of Alistair Campbell and Damien McBride, isn't that a bit rich?
"I don’t always agree with Tim Farron but the Lib Dem leader is spot on when he tells voters “a Conservative landslide means they will take you for granted wherever you live.”"
So a Labour landslide, as between 1997 and 2005, was a powerful mandate to implement constructive policies for a better Britain, while a Conservative landslide is a licence to be take for granted?
Terrible idea, one of the few good things Corbyn has done is to resist it. The Greens are in many ways worse than moderate Tories, they are certainly far more extreme, and that they get to ride a 'progressive' tag is ridiculous. You are quite right to describe how some of them are, and to be wary of them delivering a good outcome for Lab given that. It wouldn't even impact all that many seats.
Given where we are now I sort of think that there is simply no alternative to do other than trust in Mrs May's abilities. There are no better candidates, and we did this to ourselves.
It's just possible that she's up to the task. We'll see.
There's a great misconception about how Brexit should be negotiated (I really hope that this isn't shared by the people doing the negotiations) - and that's that we should negotiate down. We need to negotiate upwards from a base of essentially nothing. 'No deal' + .
The question is how big the '+' is.
Oh dear, oh dear.
I have no doubt May is vulnerable to a forensic exposure of her duplicity and her defective moral compass
Then that is not truth, it is spin. 'Defective moral compass', really? Duplicity is an easy potential argument, and she is pretty pedestrian in certain respects, going for that she cannot be trusted make some sense, but 'defective moral compass' is horseshit.
Particularly because any Lab MP has as leader someone who is much more vulnerable to claims of a defective moral compass (and even then a great many would dispute it, instead seeing him as a fool), and is incompetent, and Lab MPs are, unless they disavow him, saying Corbyn is the alternative to TMay.
"I know my offer to the electorate is too crap to beat all my opponents, so I need some of them to withdraw"
Awesome
From the party of Alistair Campbell ? And Tony Blair ? And Gordon Brown ?
Nah
The 2015 GE if it had been fought under different voting systems, such as AV.
I even did a thread on it
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
Talking of effective electoral memes I look forward to Tessa making the indisputable claim that with Brexit on the table, this is no time for a novice.
It carries on from there I think. But others can carry that burden for me.
[I hope you're recovering well, incidentally].
On topic, I am not sure that anything that Labour might do to Theresa May or her party is going to be enough to compensate for the enormous vat of filth that Tory HQ (presumably) has ready to tip over Corbyn in the closing stages of this campaign.
We've heard about Labour's awesome ground game before.
Has anyone heard from IOS ? He went quiet in 2015, quite suddenly
There should be no explicit pact with any party but offers could be made or received on a case-by-case basis from Lib Dems, Greens and even the SNP.
Where Labour has come second or a close third will not come up for discussion. So the local CLP should have no objections except there are enough nutters who will not accept this simple and common sense proposal.
For example, if we do not put up a candidate in Richmond, Surrey the Liberals will have to step down somewhere else.
SLAB may not like this proposal, but there are seats in Scotland NE where Labour votes however tiny could help the Tories win.
There may not be a seat to concede to the Greens. I can't see where Greens are competing against the Tories.
Amidst Ladbrokes' otherwise somewhat lacklustre GE market offerings, I believe I've found a tasty bit of value as regards their 9/4 (3.25 decimal odds) against Labour's share of the U.K. vote being between 25% - 30%.
These odds offer a 20% better return than Betfair Sportsbook's price of 15/8 and 28.5% more than BetFred's 7/4.
Unsurprisingly. Laddies' sister company Corals offers the same odds which look like value to me, but DYOR.
Unfortunately, it turns out that lounging squatly on a sofa in a late-night television studio sneering at those brave enough to take tough decisions is poor preparation for doing the job oneself.
Ms Abbott’s discomfort during an interview with LBC’s Nick Ferrari, as she struggled to remember how much Labour’s plans to increase bobbies on the beat would cost – was it £300,000? £80 million? £64.3 million? – means she is already a shoo-in for the Natalie Bennett Memorial Car Crash Political Interview of the Year Award.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/02/diane-abbotts-interview-demonstrates-far-left-fit-armchair-critics/
@SouthamObserver
Sorry to go off topic, but I've been dying to ask this..
Are you an American/Have American relatives/have spent an extensive time in the Western United States?
(its the words that you use in your postings)
When they do get going, lots of Corbyn & McDonnell past history and words are still in the locker and there's also the killer line she used at the last PMQ's about the 170 MP's who have no confidence in Corbyn and yet are standing on a ticket with him as potential PM.
Crosby will have to run the worst election campaign in history for May not to have a very large majority and he ain't going to do that.
Nah
A new party would have to be set-up but how long will it take them to get to power? Tory one-party rule is the form horse for the medium term.
Edited extra bit: checked and there are still no points spread markets for F1. Disappointing.
The Tories regrouped after '97, it took them a while but when the government faltered a decade later they had got themselves back into a winnable position.
If the majority ends up being only 50 or 60, isn't it most likely that Corbyn puts the losses down to a lack of party unity, the Evil Blairites and the right-wing press, and carries on with the purge?
So either you give the Tories a landslide or your party splits in half, which is it to be?
Of course, Labour are never nasty are they, Don?
Oh, other than to voters they suggest should ally with them tactically!
"In 2015 I discovered that Green voters are some of the most bigoted and blinkered people (outside the ranks of Momentum)
' Labour has sacked one of its parliamentary candidates following allegations that he suggested that Europeans should “eradicate Islam from our continent”.
The Independent understands that Labour's investigation centred around the @wellingblueboy Twitter account, which is alleged to have been that of Trevor Merralls, who was until today the Labour parliamentary candidate for the safe Tory seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup. '
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-trevor-merralls-eradicate-islam-tweets-parliamentary-candidate-investigation-racist-muslims-a7713111.html
Bring back Michael Gove!
I really don't know how the centre-left can progress in this country. We have been defeated, not by the enemy but from within.
Have the others come up with slogans yet?
But I really struggle with how the party could reelect Corbyn if there is a landslide. I know its been reported, but seriously, even he would stay on?! Surely the party would have to split at that point?
Ah yes, the much vaunted Labour ground game :-)
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/ruth-davidson-hits-out-eu-10340037
No eighth, or was it 5th ... or maybe 16th
Mr Brind, if you are relying on Labour’s “ground war” to prevent “a landslide” you're buggered.
'May slippery morals' FAIL
'Rising star Clive Lewis' FAIL
'Many brilliant hardworking Labour mps' FAIL
All this and more from the man who suggested Corbyn vs Owen Smith would be too close to call
Desperate and tragic stuff.
You need to take the kicking that is coming Labour's way and you need to learn from it.
Can Labour learn from it though?
The seat totals can't be extrapolated from the FPTP votes.
They are all clowns, absolutely useless
http://cdn2.spiegel.de/images/image-539329-breitwandaufmacher-bsnh-539329.jpg
Brighton & Hove is probably the only place where a local pact between Labour and Greens would work.
free university tuition - for the middle class
Paid for by less access to higher education for the poorer and declining education standards.
On what planet is that 'left of centre'?
No doubt in 2032 or thereabouts we will have a change of government, once the current one has run its course. By then Brexit will be history, so the issues discussed will be very different.
Maybe 2032 Labour will advocate a universal income, or annual land value tax. The important thing is (as we have observed again today) that the numbers add up, and proposals for additional spending are accompanied by genuine additional tax revenue.
Of course, getting there means ditching Corbyn, his evil works and all he stands for, and reining in the Oxbridge Champagne socialists in favour of the average working man and woman. It will happen eventually, there are too many good people around who want to see it happen. Whether or not the Labour Party is the vehicle for the next centre-left government depends on what you collectively do on 8th and 9th June.