My favourite psephologist, Prof. Stephen Fisher of Oxford University, has commenced his coverage of the 8 June General Election and his opening forecast is based on the eight most recent polls up to and including 24 April. I'm not sure how often he intends to issue his forecasts, they was weekly in 2015, but his opening shot is as follows:
Conservative .......... 390
Labour ................... 181
LibDems ................... 9
SNP ......................... 47
Others (incl N.I.) ...... 23
Total ...................... 650
Con. Majority ......... 130
Interesting Peter. Thanks for posting.
Dr Fisher was one of the few psephologists to predict the small Con majority in 2015 wasn't he?
I think the LD's will score quite a bit better than 9, at least a one in front of it.
10/1 with Shadsy for under 10 seats.
I've gone for 10-19 and 30-39 @ 6's Just waiting for something juicy in the 20-29 range to appear.
Sporting's sell of LibDem seats at 27 looks interesting. Based on quality opinion on PB.com and from the likes of Prof. Fisher, the downside looks more likely than the upside from this figure but DYOR.
I think those Tories critical of Ronnie O'Sullivan's endorsement of Jezza are most misguided. The snooker legend simply hopes that Labour gets a maximum of 147 MP's.
I think those Tories critical of Ronnie O'Sullivan's endorsement of Jezza are most misguided. The snooker legend simply hopes that Labour gets a maximum of 147 MP's.
(Well 155 technically is the maximum . . .(Free ball after a foul))
My favourite psephologist, Prof. Stephen Fisher of Oxford University, has commenced his coverage of the 8 June General Election and his opening forecast is based on the eight most recent polls up to and including 24 April. I'm not sure how often he intends to issue his forecasts, they was weekly in 2015, but his opening shot is as follows:
Conservative .......... 390
Labour ................... 181
LibDems ................... 9
SNP ......................... 47
Others (incl N.I.) ...... 23
Total ...................... 650
Con. Majority ......... 130
Interesting Peter. Thanks for posting.
Dr Fisher was one of the few psephologists to predict the small Con majority in 2015 wasn't he?
Yes, it's quite a trip from tipping him for next Labour leader to tipping him to be the Portillo moment of GE 2017.
What price the double...
Election night could be full of moments where they cut to a declaration and you think, "S/he might be a plausible leader," before 'Tory gain' flashes up on the screen.
I can't see anything other than a monolithic Labour vote here in Merseyside. My own seat of Bootle isn't going to do anything except end up in the top ten of 'safe' seats again as usual.
From Wallasey (my family home) that will be fairly safe Labour too, and none of the other Liverpool side seats will be anything other than Labour. Only Wirral West is very likely to fall (well, probably is already lost) to the Conservatives. Wirral South might be the one to watch to give you an idea of the scale of the Conservative majority. Should it fall, a landslide is likely. If Labour holds it, then the majority is more likely to be 'reasonable' in the 50-80 seat range.
No other seat in Merseyside will fall, probably not even Ellesmere Port and Neston (if they are a 'Merseyside' seat anyway).
I also expect Southport to stay Lib Dem, despite a local friend ranting about John Pugh being useless (he's off anyway).
The best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to suffer a massive heart attack sufficient to incapacitate him and force him to withdraw.
Surprised this awful comment passed the moderator.
Why? We're all adults here, are we not? If you start censoring posts that you find distasteful, you're on the road to ruin very quickly (take a look at LabourList for evidence of this). People must have the right to post their opinions, just as everyone else must have the right to criticise those opinions.
Recent election evidence - Scotland at Holyrood time before last and GE 15 suggest labour support is in a state of buckling. With the spectacular collapse in Scotland leading the way, the English and Welsh support must surely be at risk of the same precipitous decline. I'm struggling to find a way in which labour over achieve expectation based on recent trends and can see ways evidenced as above that the totally unthinkable might come to pass. Consequently I'm hovering over a bet that labour finish in two figures seats, or some way possibly of betting SNP plus plaid plus Lib Dem plus NI plus green > labour
Mr. Woolie, I partly agree. Labour can only be crushed, as per Scotland, if there's a viable alternative in England. Conservatives can only go so far, and UKIP's on its back. Lib Dems may make gains, but they don't seem to be in a position to capitalise on Labour woe.
Mr. Putney, any idea why isn't Sporting Index doing points markets for F1 this year?
Morris - I felt sure they were. Possibly they've taken down their market until they've sorted out the Alonso partial withdrawal, which does rather complicate things. I notice Spreadex doesn't have a Drivers' Points market up either.
It's probably worth checking again before and after Russia.
I think the LD's will score quite a bit better than 9, at least a one in front of it.
10/1 with Shadsy for under 10 seats.
I've gone for 10-19 and 30-39 @ 6's Just waiting for something juicy in the 20-29 range to appear.
Sporting's sell of LibDem seats at 27 looks interesting. Based on quality opinion on PB.com and from the likes of Prof. Fisher, the downside looks more likely than the upside from this figure but DYOR.
Must admit that I've never tried spread betting. I'm only a small stakes better for a bit of fun. GE bets so far has approx. £150 staked,
Perplexed and annoyed me a bit. I was planning on offering suggestions and paying close attention this year, with a very to perhaps playing with small stakes in 2018.
Mr. Woolie, I partly agree. Labour can only be crushed, as per Scotland, if there's a viable alternative in England. Conservatives can only go so far, and UKIP's on its back. Lib Dems may make gains, but they don't seem to be in a position to capitalise on Labour woe.
I'm thinking that it could happen on 22 or so% of the vote if the labour vote efficiency premium completes the unravelling seen beginning in 2015 and they become as inefficient in distribution as the Lib Dems. Anecdotal evidence suggests this could be so
My favourite psephologist, Prof. Stephen Fisher of Oxford University, has commenced his coverage of the 8 June General Election and his opening forecast is based on the eight most recent polls up to and including 24 April. I'm not sure how often he intends to issue his forecasts, they was weekly in 2015, but his opening shot is as follows:
I think those Tories critical of Ronnie O'Sullivan's endorsement of Jezza are most misguided. The snooker legend simply hopes that Labour gets a maximum of 147 MP's.
(Well 155 technically is the maximum . . .(Free ball after a foul))
I remember a televised match (from the Crucible?) from the 80s where the Canadian player Kirk Stevens was on for 155 for much of a sizeable break. Sadly, it broke down (from memory he made 120s) - but it was quite exciting while it lasted!
I think those Tories critical of Ronnie O'Sullivan's endorsement of Jezza are most misguided. The snooker legend simply hopes that Labour gets a maximum of 147 MP's.
(Well 155 technically is the maximum . . .(Free ball after a foul))
I remember a televised match (from the Crucible?) from the 80s where the Canadian player Kirk Stevens was on for 155 for much of a sizeable break. Sadly, it broke down (from memory he made 120s) - but it was quite exciting while it lasted!
I believe Alex Higgins made a 146 under those circumstances before the age of the maximum
My favourite psephologist, Prof. Stephen Fisher of Oxford University, has commenced his coverage of the 8 June General Election and his opening forecast is based on the eight most recent polls up to and including 24 April. I'm not sure how often he intends to issue his forecasts, they was weekly in 2015, but his opening shot is as follows:
Conservative .......... 390
Labour ................... 181
LibDems ................... 9
SNP ......................... 47
Others (incl N.I.) ...... 23
Total ...................... 650
Con. Majority ......... 130
Interesting Peter. Thanks for posting.
Dr Fisher was one of the few psephologists to predict the small Con majority in 2015 wasn't he?
The chance of a Con majority was put at 6%. To be fair, this was based on polls that failed (Con 34, Lab 33, LD 9 were the inputs)
Like everyone else who relies on the polls, Dr. Fisher rather messed up in 2015, but iirc he was spot on with his GE 2010 forecast and very much came to the fore as a result.
I can't see anything other than a monolithic Labour vote here in Merseyside. My own seat of Bootle isn't going to do anything except end up in the top ten of 'safe' seats again as usual.
From Wallasey (my family home) that will be fairly safe Labour too, and none of the other Liverpool side seats will be anything other than Labour. Only Wirral West is very likely to fall (well, probably is already lost) to the Conservatives. Wirral South might be the one to watch to give you an idea of the scale of the Conservative majority. Should it fall, a landslide is likely. If Labour holds it, then the majority is more likely to be 'reasonable' in the 50-80 seat range.
No other seat in Merseyside will fall, probably not even Ellesmere Port and Neston (if they are a 'Merseyside' seat anyway).
I also expect Southport to stay Lib Dem, despite a local friend ranting about John Pugh being useless (he's off anyway).
What is Wirral West like, that it alone is amendable to the Tory vote (that was McVey's seat wasn't it?)?
My favourite psephologist, Prof. Stephen Fisher of Oxford University, has commenced his coverage of the 8 June General Election and his opening forecast is based on the eight most recent polls up to and including 24 April. I'm not sure how often he intends to issue his forecasts, they was weekly in 2015, but his opening shot is as follows:
Conservative .......... 390
Labour ................... 181
LibDems ................... 9
SNP ......................... 47
Others (incl N.I.) ...... 23
Total ...................... 650
Con. Majority ......... 130
He has the vote share for GE 2015 as:
Con 37.8, Lab 31.2, LD 8.1, UKIP 12.9
Which is incorrect?
That is what the polls SHOULD have shown. Northern Ireland is never sampled, because noone ever has a clue about there except the locals.
My favourite psephologist, Prof. Stephen Fisher of Oxford University, has commenced his coverage of the 8 June General Election and his opening forecast is based on the eight most recent polls up to and including 24 April. I'm not sure how often he intends to issue his forecasts, they was weekly in 2015, but his opening shot is as follows:
Conservative .......... 390
Labour ................... 181
LibDems ................... 9
SNP ......................... 47
Others (incl N.I.) ...... 23
Total ...................... 650
Con. Majority ......... 130
Interesting Peter. Thanks for posting.
Dr Fisher was one of the few psephologists to predict the small Con majority in 2015 wasn't he?
The chance of a Con majority was put at 6%. To be fair, this was based on polls that failed (Con 34, Lab 33, LD 9 were the inputs)
Like everyone else who relies on the polls, Dr. Fisher rather messed up in 2015, but iirc he was spot on with his GE 2010 forecast and very much came to the fore as a result.
How much of the current prediction is out of fear of looking ridiculous despite evidence that an ELE has to be possible? Scotland 2015 is the key to this imo
That seems very odd. I can see Con and Labour being on those seats, but no Lib Dem gains at all? Yet the SNP lose 9 seats (all to Con presumably)? Unless he expects the LD to lose Richmond Park and perhaps gain NE Fife and the remaining eight SNP losses to Con (or 1 gain from Labour and 9 losses to Con). LD total looks low, as does SNP......
My favourite psephologist, Prof. Stephen Fisher of Oxford University, has commenced his coverage of the 8 June General Election and his opening forecast is based on the eight most recent polls up to and including 24 April. I'm not sure how often he intends to issue his forecasts, they was weekly in 2015, but his opening shot is as follows:
Conservative .......... 390
Labour ................... 181
LibDems ................... 9
SNP ......................... 47
Others (incl N.I.) ...... 23
Total ...................... 650
Con. Majority ......... 130
He has the vote share for GE 2015 as:
Con 37.8, Lab 31.2, LD 8.1, UKIP 12.9
Which is incorrect?
These are GB figures - ie they exclude the 18 Northern Ireland seats. The pollsters use GB rather than UK figures - but far too many people become confused when they consult Wilkipedia and are presented with the latter. The figures you refer to are the appropriate benchmark from 2015.
My favourite psephologist, Prof. Stephen Fisher of Oxford University, has commenced his coverage of the 8 June General Election and his opening forecast is based on the eight most recent polls up to and including 24 April. I'm not sure how often he intends to issue his forecasts, they was weekly in 2015, but his opening shot is as follows:
Conservative .......... 390
Labour ................... 181
LibDems ................... 9
SNP ......................... 47
Others (incl N.I.) ...... 23
Total ...................... 650
Con. Majority ......... 130
He has the vote share for GE 2015 as:
Con 37.8, Lab 31.2, LD 8.1, UKIP 12.9
Which is incorrect?
That is what the polls SHOULD have shown. Northern Ireland is never sampled, because noone ever has a clue about there except the locals.
Well, we have a clue about the general seats numbers, they don't alter that much.
Yokel said its in flux at the moment I believe, so it is unclear.
My favourite psephologist, Prof. Stephen Fisher of Oxford University, has commenced his coverage of the 8 June General Election and his opening forecast is based on the eight most recent polls up to and including 24 April. I'm not sure how often he intends to issue his forecasts, they was weekly in 2015, but his opening shot is as follows:
Conservative .......... 390
Labour ................... 181
LibDems ................... 9
SNP ......................... 47
Others (incl N.I.) ...... 23
Total ...................... 650
Con. Majority ......... 130
He has the vote share for GE 2015 as:
Con 37.8, Lab 31.2, LD 8.1, UKIP 12.9
Which is incorrect?
That is what the polls SHOULD have shown. Northern Ireland is never sampled, because noone ever has a clue about there except the locals.
Well, we have a clue about the general seats numbers, they don't alter that much.
Yokel said its in flux at the moment I believe, so it is unclear.
I believe Sinn Fein might JUST be favourites in West Belfast.
I can't see anything other than a monolithic Labour vote here in Merseyside. My own seat of Bootle isn't going to do anything except end up in the top ten of 'safe' seats again as usual.
From Wallasey (my family home) that will be fairly safe Labour too, and none of the other Liverpool side seats will be anything other than Labour. Only Wirral West is very likely to fall (well, probably is already lost) to the Conservatives. Wirral South might be the one to watch to give you an idea of the scale of the Conservative majority. Should it fall, a landslide is likely. If Labour holds it, then the majority is more likely to be 'reasonable' in the 50-80 seat range.
No other seat in Merseyside will fall, probably not even Ellesmere Port and Neston (if they are a 'Merseyside' seat anyway).
I also expect Southport to stay Lib Dem, despite a local friend ranting about John Pugh being useless (he's off anyway).
What is Wirral West like, that it alone is amendable to the Tory vote (that was McVey's seat wasn't it?)?
It's very prosperous. If it were not in Merseyside, it would have a five figure Conservative majority.
It's a real peculiarity that even middle class seats in Merseyside are largely left wing. Liverpool just kept heading left from the 1960's onwards, and the rest of Merseyside from the 1980's onwards.
Since the world's most boring oaf, Keir 'Kryton' Starmer's speech this morning, Tories odds have LENGTHENED over at WH. They are now 1/8 to gain a majoirty. They were 1/7 this morning. More barn storming speeches, please, Starmer.
Are PaddyPower doing individual constituency bets? I can't see them..
Yes but not easy to find them on their website
Go to A_Z Betting (left hand margin of home page) . Politics - A - D Constituencies, etc Note: Scottish and Welsh Seats are listed separately. Unsurprisingly their odds are exactly the same as those on Betfair Sportsbook.
I can't see anything other than a monolithic Labour vote here in Merseyside. My own seat of Bootle isn't going to do anything except end up in the top ten of 'safe' seats again as usual.
From Wallasey (my family home) that will be fairly safe Labour too, and none of the other Liverpool side seats will be anything other than Labour. Only Wirral West is very likely to fall (well, probably is already lost) to the Conservatives. Wirral South might be the one to watch to give you an idea of the scale of the Conservative majority. Should it fall, a landslide is likely. If Labour holds it, then the majority is more likely to be 'reasonable' in the 50-80 seat range.
No other seat in Merseyside will fall, probably not even Ellesmere Port and Neston (if they are a 'Merseyside' seat anyway).
I also expect Southport to stay Lib Dem, despite a local friend ranting about John Pugh being useless (he's off anyway).
What is Wirral West like, that it alone is amendable to the Tory vote (that was McVey's seat wasn't it?)?
It's very prosperous. If it were not in Merseyside, it would have a five figure Conservative majority.
It's a real peculiarity that even middle class seats in Merseyside are largely left wing. Liverpool just kept heading left from the 1960's onwards, and the rest of Merseyside from the 1980's onwards.
The Merseyside influence also seems to be spreading to Cheshire with Lab taking Chester in 2015 and also controlling CW&C council. Could the widespread boycott of the Sun be partly responsible?
Was thinking about comments earlier on removing Jezza. Who on earth would take the reins or want to into THIS election? Anyone taking the helm will instantly become Labour's worst ever leader by result. They'd have to appoint a fall guy caretaker which in itself would cripple them. It's too late.
Recent election evidence - Scotland at Holyrood time before last and GE 15 suggest labour support is in a state of buckling. With the spectacular collapse in Scotland leading the way, the English and Welsh support must surely be at risk of the same precipitous decline. I'm struggling to find a way in which labour over achieve expectation based on recent trends and can see ways evidenced as above that the totally unthinkable might come to pass. Consequently I'm hovering over a bet that labour finish in two figures seats, or some way possibly of betting SNP plus plaid plus Lib Dem plus NI plus green > labour
Labour's problem is that it has for a time been an alliance between Identity Politics and WWC. But it has now got a leader (and a membership) who is neither. Corbyn is a far far lefty. He's successfully destroying electability on both sides of the alliance - leaving behind a very tiny rump of trots/SWP/momentum types. In terms of GE performance it is the profound alienation of WWC that is going to do the most damage. (especially female votes)
I invited a Kantar pollster into my home for 20 minutes last week. Normally I would show them the door but I was anticipating being asked some interesting election-related questions. Sadly it was all about olive oil, some replacement for blu tak and a load of television programmes I have never watched.
Someone with time on their hand and with sufficient computer skills, might like to to do an edit job on the most fancied names to become next Labour Leader, on the basis that around one third of their total number appear likely to lose their seats. This should highlight some tasty value as a result.
I'm a seller of the Lib Dems on Sporting Index. However, it is undeniably risking the chance that the Lib Dems catch light. Not for the fainthearted.
I was a buyer of LDs at the last election at 26..strangely enough pretty much where they are now. Got burnt then and would be wary at that level again
Spread betting isn't for the faint-hearted, full stop. It was probably Alastair Meeks who commented on his blog in 2015 that Lib.Dem constituency results are harder to predict than outcomes in Tory and Labour seats. It makes value hard to find although there's one seat that may be predictable/profitable.
I've usually only made money on the L.Dems by betting against them, sadly.
I can't see anything other than a monolithic Labour vote here in Merseyside. My own seat of Bootle isn't going to do anything except end up in the top ten of 'safe' seats again as usual.
From Wallasey (my family home) that will be fairly safe Labour too, and none of the other Liverpool side seats will be anything other than Labour. Only Wirral West is very likely to fall (well, probably is already lost) to the Conservatives. Wirral South might be the one to watch to give you an idea of the scale of the Conservative majority. Should it fall, a landslide is likely. If Labour holds it, then the majority is more likely to be 'reasonable' in the 50-80 seat range.
No other seat in Merseyside will fall, probably not even Ellesmere Port and Neston (if they are a 'Merseyside' seat anyway).
I also expect Southport to stay Lib Dem, despite a local friend ranting about John Pugh being useless (he's off anyway).
What is Wirral West like, that it alone is amendable to the Tory vote (that was McVey's seat wasn't it?)?
It's very prosperous. If it were not in Merseyside, it would have a five figure Conservative majority.
It's a real peculiarity that even middle class seats in Merseyside are largely left wing. Liverpool just kept heading left from the 1960's onwards, and the rest of Merseyside from the 1980's onwards.
The Merseyside influence also seems to be spreading to Cheshire with Lab taking Chester in 2015 and also controlling CW&C council. Could the widespread boycott of the Sun be partly responsible?
Could be.
Almost anywhere else, seats like Wirral South and Sefton Central would be reasonably safely Conservative, and Liverpool Wavertree, Wallasey, and Garston & Halewood would at least be competitive.
Was thinking about comments earlier on removing Jezza. Who on earth would take the reins or want to into THIS election? Anyone taking the helm will instantly become Labour's worst ever leader by result. They'd have to appoint a fall guy caretaker which in itself would cripple them. It's too late.
That seems very odd. I can see Con and Labour being on those seats, but no Lib Dem gains at all? Yet the SNP lose 9 seats (all to Con presumably)? Unless he expects the LD to lose Richmond Park and perhaps gain NE Fife and the remaining eight SNP losses to Con (or 1 gain from Labour and 9 losses to Con). LD total looks low, as does SNP......
I agree .... the LibDems look certain to pick up a few seats, but it's a long old haul for from 9 to reach 27 seats which is my sell price.
I'm a seller of the Lib Dems on Sporting Index. However, it is undeniably risking the chance that the Lib Dems catch light. Not for the fainthearted.
I think that a precursor for them catching light would require: - LD improvement in the polls continuing to an underlying average of c. 14-15% - Lab decline to continue to an average of c. 21-22% - Two consecutive rogue polls showing Lab low by 3-4% and LDs high by 2-3% (ie Lab 18% and LD 17%) fuelling speculation that LDs could overtake Lab in voting intention.
... and that would be necessary but not sufficient.
Apart from that, some indication of exceptionally helpful vote allocation in exactly the right seats would be useful - it's not completely impossible that the bounceback in the previously held seats will be larger than elsewhere (on a "We wanted to give you a kicking but this was beyond what we expected" sympathy return).
Myself, I expect about 13-15 LD seats (with 6-7 of those being from the existing 9). I wouldn't be stunned at a net decrease to 3-5 or an increase to about 25. I would be stunned at anything beyond those.
Voters are fed up with fear'n'loathing politics like 'Tory filth', GE2015 Coalition of Chaos, Remain's Fear Factor, etc., and would warmly welcome the relief of quietly positive, competently managerial politics, the sort that May is perceived to offer and which would be timely given the Brexit negotiations. And five years of that is positively mouthwatering to people who don't think about politics much between elections.
Labour, Lucas, LibDemRemainers, SNP et al offer the prospect of continued self-serving negativity, stridency and endless noisy aggro when, especially after lots of electoral activity in recent years, people just want politicians to STFU, go away and do the day jobs they are currently applying for.
Oh, and Corbyn is negligible. Nothing to offer but a very nasty smell and some very nasty associates.
I invited a Kantar pollster into my home for 20 minutes last week. Normally I would show them the door but I was anticipating being asked some interesting election-related questions. Sadly it was all about olive oil, some replacement for blu tak and a load of television programmes I have never watched.
It was probably for the Conservatives. They're getting really smart at micro-targetting nowadays. "Knew his olive oil, sceptical of innovation, doesn't watch TV soaps. Put him down as a LibDem probable but put him on the list for the 'coalition of chaos' personalised letters with the immigration bits missed out"
I can't see anything other than a monolithic Labour vote here in Merseyside. My own seat of Bootle isn't going to do anything except end up in the top ten of 'safe' seats again as usual.
From Wallasey (my family home) that will be fairly safe Labour too, and none of the other Liverpool side seats will be anything other than Labour. Only Wirral West is very likely to fall (well, probably is already lost) to the Conservatives. Wirral South might be the one to watch to give you an idea of the scale of the Conservative majority. Should it fall, a landslide is likely. If Labour holds it, then the majority is more likely to be 'reasonable' in the 50-80 seat range.
No other seat in Merseyside will fall, probably not even Ellesmere Port and Neston (if they are a 'Merseyside' seat anyway).
I also expect Southport to stay Lib Dem, despite a local friend ranting about John Pugh being useless (he's off anyway).
What is Wirral West like, that it alone is amendable to the Tory vote (that was McVey's seat wasn't it?)?
It's very prosperous. If it were not in Merseyside, it would have a five figure Conservative majority.
It's a real peculiarity that even middle class seats in Merseyside are largely left wing. Liverpool just kept heading left from the 1960's onwards, and the rest of Merseyside from the 1980's onwards.
The Merseyside influence also seems to be spreading to Cheshire with Lab taking Chester in 2015 and also controlling CW&C council. Could the widespread boycott of the Sun be partly responsible?
Widespread victim culture dovetails well with Labour rhetoric.
I'm a seller of the Lib Dems on Sporting Index. However, it is undeniably risking the chance that the Lib Dems catch light. Not for the fainthearted.
I think that a precursor for them catching light would require: - LD improvement in the polls continuing to an underlying average of c. 14-15% - Lab decline to continue to an average of c. 21-22% - Two consecutive rogue polls showing Lab low by 3-4% and LDs high by 2-3% (ie Lab 18% and LD 17%) fuelling speculation that LDs could overtake Lab in voting intention.
Perhaps a shortcut to that position would be some constituency polls in seats that are more like by-elections in character (such as Vauxhall) showing the Lib Dems in a strong position. I think they need to catch light in London somehow to make any significant inroads and kick away the other leg of Labour's residual support.
What is Wirral West like, that it alone is amendable to the Tory vote (that was McVey's seat wasn't it?)?
To be fair, the main reason Wirral West *isn't* a Conservative stronghold is because of the boundaries, which include the Woodchurch Estate (Estate being the clue in the name) which is a...... less than well off council estate. Lots of tribal Labour voters there, along with enough 'right on' people in West Kirby and Heswall who will vote Labour. Plus West Kirby isn't all that good really.
It's a very difficult seat for her to win – you would expect it to go blue. She might have some backing from the red top press and she seems to be a nice lady but Bury North is not going to vote Labour I shouldn't have thought.
O/T,sort of. A mneeting in my hpouse this morning, local tourist-related activity, nothing to do wioth politics. However, one of the team is Secretary of the local Labour Party. Something was said about a Bank Holiday on Monday and the Sec-chap remarked that we’d have three or four in April next year. I said I thought it was a silly idea; we had far too many BH’s around this time of the year and was told by the Sec-chap that it was unlikely to be the last silly idea from that source this election!
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_Note
So far he has turned on Australia and Canada. It's either us or the Kiwis next. Can't wait for that trade deal...
Donald J. TrumpVerified account
@realDonaldTrump
Canada has made business for our dairy farmers in Wisconsin and other border states very difficult. We will not stand for this. Watch!
Granted, that was an error of judgement rather than hardiness, but I still did it.
Con 285
Lab 262
LD 25
SNP 53
The chance of a Con majority was put at 6%.
To be fair, this was based on polls that failed (Con 34, Lab 33, LD 9 were the inputs)
It is either King Ed, or Giro Ed for me.
Although the polling SHOULD be higher than the result ! (Unless you expect a Tory surge in West Belfast...) {38,31,9} I think.
* As was almost everyone, to be fair.
I can't see anything other than a monolithic Labour vote here in Merseyside. My own seat of Bootle isn't going to do anything except end up in the top ten of 'safe' seats again as usual.
From Wallasey (my family home) that will be fairly safe Labour too, and none of the other Liverpool side seats will be anything other than Labour. Only Wirral West is very likely to fall (well, probably is already lost) to the Conservatives. Wirral South might be the one to watch to give you an idea of the scale of the Conservative majority. Should it fall, a landslide is likely. If Labour holds it, then the majority is more likely to be 'reasonable' in the 50-80 seat range.
No other seat in Merseyside will fall, probably not even Ellesmere Port and Neston (if they are a 'Merseyside' seat anyway).
I also expect Southport to stay Lib Dem, despite a local friend ranting about John Pugh being useless (he's off anyway).
Consequently I'm hovering over a bet that labour finish in two figures seats, or some way possibly of betting SNP plus plaid plus Lib Dem plus NI plus green > labour
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/04/17/the-great-dairy-trade-war-that-will-test-president-trump/?utm_term=.1930f30de7e7
Con 46
Lab 24
LD 11
UKIP 8
Your original comment was just a simple statement as quoted above, no qualifications, apologies or clarifications. It stood on its own.
It's probably worth checking again before and after Russia.
I'm only a small stakes better for a bit of fun.
GE bets so far has approx. £150 staked,
Perplexed and annoyed me a bit. I was planning on offering suggestions and paying close attention this year, with a very to perhaps playing with small stakes in 2018.
Con 37.8, Lab 31.2, LD 8.1, UKIP 12.9
Which is incorrect?
They had started at 20/1.
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/sites/tns-bmrb/files/KPUK Tables & Method note 25.4.2017.pdf
That seems very odd. I can see Con and Labour being on those seats, but no Lib Dem gains at all? Yet the SNP lose 9 seats (all to Con presumably)? Unless he expects the LD to lose Richmond Park and perhaps gain NE Fife and the remaining eight SNP losses to Con (or 1 gain from Labour and 9 losses to Con). LD total looks low, as does SNP......
Yokel said its in flux at the moment I believe, so it is unclear.
It's a real peculiarity that even middle class seats in Merseyside are largely left wing. Liverpool just kept heading left from the 1960's onwards, and the rest of Merseyside from the 1980's onwards.
Note: Scottish and Welsh Seats are listed separately. Unsurprisingly their odds are exactly the same as those on Betfair Sportsbook.
May: 44
Corbyn: 18
Among 65+
May: 69
Corbyn; 10
Corbyn is outpolled by 'Neither' in all age demographics except 18-24
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/856879222425563138
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/no-labour-seat-bristol-east-34895
Labour could lose South and East seats, B West 4 way split. Make of it what you will.
https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/856880352928968704
I've usually only made money on the L.Dems by betting against them, sadly.
Almost anywhere else, seats like Wirral South and Sefton Central would be reasonably safely Conservative, and Liverpool Wavertree, Wallasey, and Garston & Halewood would at least be competitive.
- LD improvement in the polls continuing to an underlying average of c. 14-15%
- Lab decline to continue to an average of c. 21-22%
- Two consecutive rogue polls showing Lab low by 3-4% and LDs high by 2-3% (ie Lab 18% and LD 17%) fuelling speculation that LDs could overtake Lab in voting intention.
... and that would be necessary but not sufficient.
Apart from that, some indication of exceptionally helpful vote allocation in exactly the right seats would be useful - it's not completely impossible that the bounceback in the previously held seats will be larger than elsewhere (on a "We wanted to give you a kicking but this was beyond what we expected" sympathy return).
Myself, I expect about 13-15 LD seats (with 6-7 of those being from the existing 9). I wouldn't be stunned at a net decrease to 3-5 or an increase to about 25. I would be stunned at anything beyond those.
The only way I can get this poll to add through is by utterly cratering Lab Leavers.
Labour remain holding up is the other side.
Anyway I make that poll:
CON 410
LAB 153
L DEM 9
UKIP 0
GREEN 1
SNP 54
PLAID 4
OTHER 1
But the SNp won't be at 54/
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/apr/25/mirror-group-settles-phone-hacking-claims-with-undisclosed-damages
Voters are fed up with fear'n'loathing politics like 'Tory filth', GE2015 Coalition of Chaos, Remain's Fear Factor, etc., and would warmly welcome the relief of quietly positive, competently managerial politics, the sort that May is perceived to offer and which would be timely given the Brexit negotiations. And five years of that is positively mouthwatering to people who don't think about politics much between elections.
Labour, Lucas, LibDemRemainers, SNP et al offer the prospect of continued self-serving negativity, stridency and endless noisy aggro when, especially after lots of electoral activity in recent years, people just want politicians to STFU, go away and do the day jobs they are currently applying for.
Oh, and Corbyn is negligible. Nothing to offer but a very nasty smell and some very nasty associates.
Pen'orth, etc.