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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Riding the surge. Betting on a Conservative landslide
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Riding the surge. Betting on a Conservative landslide
If the polls are to be believed, the Conservatives are in for a spectacular night on 8 June. ICM, YouGov and ComRes are all reporting national leads of more than 20% for the Conservatives – YouGov and ICM three times in the last week. Labour seem in disarray, with the gaffes and questionable decisions coming in fast and thick. Their morale is on the floor, with Labour MPs openly refusing to endorse Jeremy Corbyn for next Prime Minister. There is a palpable sense of worse to come.
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Let's hope they come in.
At the last General Election in 2015, 67 per cent of baby boomers voted, compared to 56 per cent of generation X and just 46 per cent of millennials of voting age. Combined with the impact of their large cohort size, this resulted in a four million person ballot box advantage for the baby boomers over the millennials. The superficial correlation between generational voting blocs and the tax and benefit policies being implemented this parliament, which deliver a net benefit to those aged 55-75 set against large losses for those aged 20-40, is evident.
http://www.intergencommission.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Generational-voting.pdf
Be afraid Labour.
What is the view on Birmingham Erdington - Labour since 1945?
In a nutshell they don't like Corbyn, much prefer May to Cameron and have no Ukip to turn to. Libs will pick up a few as usual but the Tories will win a landslide.
There is a danger of looking for nuances and angles that don't exist, its a very straightforward scenario.
The lickspittle pigdog Tories are only in contention in the small proportion of the country that was once conquered by the Romans!
No no no no.
You misunderstand Alistair's point completely. The remain/leave split is valid not because people voted remain or leave but because of their CIRCUMSTANCE that caused the remain or leave vote.
Handily it can be modelled/guessed at by the remain/leave votes in a constituency.
Look at the swings in Scotland compared to the independence vote. Biggest swings in Glasgow for instance.
Most police support Le Pen. Many wouldn't be sad if a Bloody Sunday took place in one of the immigrant banlieues and battle was allowed to commence. Step forward Macron, man of the moment? I doubt it.
The Paris massacre of October 1961 was kept out of the media. Nowadays...
They do sometimes go up and down, it seems.
Without debates might be the only chance to grill her
Not brilliant but halycon days compared to where Labour is now.
To them Corbyn is a fruitcake, May isn't an old Etonian, the Libs are a bit, well, Liberal and Ukip are gone.
Not for the first time Meeks makes a sound case to back certain things but the bigger picture is far from complicated.
The Labour -> Tory swing will be greater in Hull east than it will be in Streatham - which both ought to be safish Labour seats..
You win if there is a bigger swing in Streatham, I win if it is Hull East.
Streatham starts off closer, and with a higher Tory % share. So if you don't think leave/remain is a factor then be my guest up to £50.
And thank you Mr Meeks. Threads like this are why I come here.
It seemed far-fetched at the time, but judging by a couple of opinion polls at the weekend the former MP for Edinburgh Pentlands might have been on to something.
There is an irony in all of this: anti-Toryism is practically part of the SNP and independence movement's political DNA, yet the first referendum in 2014, and especially the prospect of another in two years' time, has provided the impetus for a Scottish Conservative revival which could deprive the still mighty SNP of several seats come June 8th. Sir Malcolm should be proud of his electoral foresight.
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/04/25/the-conservatives-are-making-a-comeback-in-scotland-sturgeon
If the Tories do win 12 seats, Scottish Tories will be toasting Nicola for making it all possible...
In his speech he was more specific on policy, not least accepting that Labour would continue to effectively adopt new EU labour regulations after Brexit. That is a significant commitment.
But in other respects he was unpersuasive. Starmer claimed that Labour would prioritise the economy over controlling immigration in the Brexit talks, unlike Theresa May who says the opposite. However he also said that Labour could no longer accept the current rules on free movement, suggesting that in practice Labour Brexit negotiators would be in much the same position as Tory ones; haggling for the best possible access to the single market while refusing to give the free movement guarantees that could keep the UK in.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/25/general-election-2017-labour-pledge-to-wipe-brexit-slate-clean-politics-live
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/856825985198673923
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/856826582509522944
I think you're looking for an argument I'm not prepared to have, I'm simply saying that the politically obsessed look at elections in an entirely different way to the man in the street.
In 2015 tories got 11.3m labour 9.3m I'll predict this time it will be something like 14m and 7m. I've no idea how that converts to seats.
The main reason is that Cameron would have patronised Corbyn and as much as Labour voters don't like Corbyn they loathe the Flashmen.
The odds on a Conservative majority of over 100 are just 1.72. Not good for democracy. But the result of having a cretin like Corbyn as the alternative.
If the figures do not make sense then some of them are certainly wrong . We may not know which or whether all are wrong but do not bet on false data .
Is there any news on any election night piss ups being organized.
I've got the 9th off work, so am looking to go somewhere for the evening/night/
Oh, the old 'once the voters get to know Jeremy' straw view.
Most voters think they already DO know Jeremy
Do you think is doing net well / (don't know)
May: +17 (12)
Corbyn: -52 (17)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tz9dxy8t29/SundayTimesResults_170421_VI_W.pdf
Remember how long it took them to react to the evidence right in front of their face of the SLabour wipeout prior to GE2015?
The SNP only have two tricks 'Independence' and 'Not the Tories' - we know they are not making progress on the first - and time may be running out on the second.....
The choice is May or Corbyn, everything else is irrelevant.
On Corbyn, we are 100% aligned though!
That'll be a nice job for life for someone...
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/demographics-dividing-britain/
Perhaps there are parallels with Churchill and WW2, although the mere mention does perhaps feel like I'm overstating that!
Bermondsey Lib Dem Gain, Brentford Con Gain *ahem*.
Someone commented below that the polls are the high water mark for the Tories. The Tories only face two problems and they are both internal. Namely ensuring they avoid hubris at all costs and ensure that they get supporters out to vote.