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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Riding the surge. Betting on a Conservative landslide

SystemSystem Posts: 12,263
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Riding the surge. Betting on a Conservative landslide

If the polls are to be believed, the Conservatives are in for a spectacular night on 8 June.  ICM, YouGov and ComRes are all reporting national leads of more than 20% for the Conservatives – YouGov and ICM three times in the last week.  Labour seem in disarray, with the gaffes and questionable decisions coming in fast and thick.  Their morale is on the floor, with Labour MPs openly refusing to endorse Jeremy Corbyn for next Prime Minister.  There is a palpable sense of worse to come.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    First!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    CarlottaVance said:

    First!

    like the Tories
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Brilliant Alastair. Backed these an hour ago.

    Let's hope they come in.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/dehavilland/status/856822513422270464
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Excellent thread Mr Meeks. On a related matter - differences in generational turnout and voting - (as we saw yesterday in Wales) - will play a part - new report on the subject (FPT):

    At the last General Election in 2015, 67 per cent of baby boomers voted, compared to 56 per cent of generation X and just 46 per cent of millennials of voting age. Combined with the impact of their large cohort size, this resulted in a four million person ballot box advantage for the baby boomers over the millennials. The superficial correlation between generational voting blocs and the tax and benefit policies being implemented this parliament, which deliver a net benefit to those aged 55-75 set against large losses for those aged 20-40, is evident.

    http://www.intergencommission.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Generational-voting.pdf
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Scott_P said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    First!

    like the Tories
    And 'No'!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Put a smidgen on the Conservatives on Doncaster North, cheers for the tip.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Don't forget Alistair Meeks saw the SNP landslide coming in 2015.

    Be afraid Labour.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited April 2017
    Article by Michael Stothard and Jim Brunsden in the Financial Times: "How Marine Le Pen can steer a narrow path to victory in France". It's not especially good, but they got a quote from someone at Deutsche Bank to the effect that it's not in the bag for Macron.
    Paristonda said:

    No black swan terrorist event will swing this election in favour of Le Pen. This assumption is a misunderstanding of her support increase. Her anti-globalization campaign is her strong point. It actually is the economy, stupid. the people that would be swayed to vote for her because of a terror attack will already have been voting for her. People don't forget things like the Bataclan or Nice, those who would switch to her because of that already have done so (and it is a small number) - a terrorist attack between now and voting day won't shift anything, just like the one on the Champs didn't either.

    It's more volatile than that, and other kinds of violence than terrorism are possible. Both Le Pen and Macron would have to respond. How would Macron perform? Does he look strong enough? Does he have a programme that will make future attacks less likely? That's what people will be asking. Does he represent what has caused or exacerbated the problem in the first place? Because that's what Le Pen's campaign will say about him. He won't win by sitting back and saying "Le Pen is trying to capitalise on this. But moi? Pah!"

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Good thread.

    What is the view on Birmingham Erdington - Labour since 1945?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    The exit poll on June 8th....any predictions? I'm going 47% Tories, 26% Labour, 11% Limp Dims.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    That Doncaster North is now being discussed as a possible Labour loss, says it all really.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Doncaster North looks possible on paper, but I think Ed Miliband will do better than other MPs with similar constituencies simply because he'll be seen as an embodiment of Labour before the Corbyn disaster. Still, 16/1 might have been worth a punt, but it's no longer available.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,411
    Do people expect the Tories to under or out perform uniform national swing?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Doncaster North looks possible on paper, but I think Ed Miliband will do better than other MPs with similar constituencies simply because he'll be seen as an embodiment of Labour before the Corbyn disaster. Still, 16/1 might have been worth a punt, but it's no longer available.

    He is no longer leader so won't get the leader boost though.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,252
    If Miliband is in trouble then Cooper can't be that safe either!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Put a smidgen on the Conservatives on Doncaster North, cheers for the tip.

    Are you able to access the seat markets on BFSB? On my account they disappeared yesterday.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/856825549314023426
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Very good header but I can't help thinking too much is being made of Remain/Leave voters, the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    In a nutshell they don't like Corbyn, much prefer May to Cameron and have no Ukip to turn to. Libs will pick up a few as usual but the Tories will win a landslide.

    There is a danger of looking for nuances and angles that don't exist, its a very straightforward scenario.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    I got on Don N at 16. Pretty pleased with that. Just taken up Bristol S at 13 to 8.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    freetochoose said:

    Very good header but I can't help thinking too much is being made of Remain/Leave voters, the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    In a nutshell they don't like Corbyn, much prefer May to Cameron and have no Ukip to turn to. Libs will pick up a few as usual but the Tories will win a landslide.

    There is a danger of looking for nuances and angles that don't exist, its a very straightforward scenario.

    I agree. This is a referendum on Corbyn. That may change, but I don't think so.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    rkrkrk said:

    Do people expect the Tories to under or out perform uniform national swing?

    I don't think there'll be a UNS in the first place. What indications there are suggest the Tories have potential to do significantly better and the LibDems slightly better than a forecast based on UNS.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Comrades! Do not listen to the bourgeois propaganda of the capitalist organs of disinformation!

    The lickspittle pigdog Tories are only in contention in the small proportion of the country that was once conquered by the Romans!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    IanB2 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Put a smidgen on the Conservatives on Doncaster North, cheers for the tip.

    Are you able to access the seat markets on BFSB? On my account they disappeared yesterday.
    Seem ok today. I have found sometimes they disappear and then reappear a few minutes later. Odd.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Let's see what the local election results are first shall we?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    edited April 2017
    freetochoose said:

    Very good header but I can't help thinking too much is being made of Remain/Leave voters, the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    In a nutshell they don't like Corbyn, much prefer May to Cameron and have no Ukip to turn to. Libs will pick up a few as usual but the Tories will win a landslide.

    There is a danger of looking for nuances and angles that don't exist, its a very straightforward scenario.

    the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    No no no no.

    You misunderstand Alistair's point completely. The remain/leave split is valid not because people voted remain or leave but because of their CIRCUMSTANCE that caused the remain or leave vote.
    Handily it can be modelled/guessed at by the remain/leave votes in a constituency.

    Look at the swings in Scotland compared to the independence vote. Biggest swings in Glasgow for instance.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited April 2017
    Jason said:

    The exit poll on June 8th....any predictions? I'm going 47% Tories, 26% Labour, 11% Limp Dims.

    Possibly but I feel that both the Tories and Labour will do worse and the LDs will do better than those figures.
  • CommanderShepardCommanderShepard Posts: 135
    Thanks Alastair - I'm on all three.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited April 2017
    Interesting to think that the Algerian question brought the Fifth Republic into existence and its current incarnation could bring it to an end too.

    Most police support Le Pen. Many wouldn't be sad if a Bloody Sunday took place in one of the immigrant banlieues and battle was allowed to commence. Step forward Macron, man of the moment? I doubt it.

    The Paris massacre of October 1961 was kept out of the media. Nowadays...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. B2, yep, was Sportsbook I went on.

    They do sometimes go up and down, it seems.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Fenman said:

    Let's see what the local election results are first shall we?

    From a betting perspective, leaving things till after the locals is a tad late.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Fenman said:

    Let's see what the local election results are first shall we?

    Why ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Doncaster North looks possible on paper, but I think Ed Miliband will do better than other MPs with similar constituencies simply because he'll be seen as an embodiment of Labour before the Corbyn disaster. Still, 16/1 might have been worth a punt, but it's no longer available.

    He is no longer leader so won't get the leader boost though.
    I think he'll get a nostalgic elder-statesman boost. Odd, I know, since only two years ago he was seen as the ultimate joke of a lightweight, but everything's speeded up in recent politics..
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tezza is on Marr and Peston on Sunday.

    Without debates might be the only chance to grill her
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Doncaster North looks possible on paper, but I think Ed Miliband will do better than other MPs with similar constituencies simply because he'll be seen as an embodiment of Labour before the Corbyn disaster. Still, 16/1 might have been worth a punt, but it's no longer available.

    He is no longer leader so won't get the leader boost though.
    I think he'll get a nostalgic elder-statesman boost. Odd, I know, since only two years ago he was seen as the ultimate joke of a lightweight, but everything's speeded up in recent politics..
    Personally I always thought he was fine, and would have made an OK PM. He didn't even do that badly, as he was up against Cameron who was very strong - and Lab/Tory seats were pretty much a wash which just depended on demographics/geography of the particular seat (Ilford North/Gower).
    Not brilliant but halycon days compared to where Labour is now.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 941
    We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    Scott_P said:

    Tezza is on Marr and Peston on Sunday.

    Without debates might be the only chance to grill her

    Think she is going to do a question time format
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Pulpstar said:

    freetochoose said:

    Very good header but I can't help thinking too much is being made of Remain/Leave voters, the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    In a nutshell they don't like Corbyn, much prefer May to Cameron and have no Ukip to turn to. Libs will pick up a few as usual but the Tories will win a landslide.

    There is a danger of looking for nuances and angles that don't exist, its a very straightforward scenario.

    the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    No no no no.

    You misunderstand Alistair's point completely. The remain/leave split is valid not because people voted remain or leave but because of their CIRCUMSTANCE that caused the remain or leave vote.
    Handily it can be modelled/guessed at by the remain/leave votes in a constituency.

    Look at the swings in Scotland compared to the independence vote. Biggest swings in Glasgow for instance.
    I'm afraid we disagree, there is a danger that politicos look for things that don't exist, the public don't like politics or politicians and decide who to vote for by newspaper headlines and the 6 o'clock news.

    To them Corbyn is a fruitcake, May isn't an old Etonian, the Libs are a bit, well, Liberal and Ukip are gone.

    Not for the first time Meeks makes a sound case to back certain things but the bigger picture is far from complicated.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    theakes said:

    We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back

    Why
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    Fenman said:

    Let's see what the local election results are first shall we?

    Suspect Labour will do better than forecast at the locals, at least in percentage terms. This will be good news for the Tory campaign as anything that keeps in sight the prospect of JC in No10 has to be good for their turnout in the GE.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    theakes said:

    The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back

    Hold that thought...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    theakes said:

    We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back

    You think? The tirade against Corbyn has barely started.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Scott_P said:

    Tezza is on Marr and Peston on Sunday.

    Without debates might be the only chance to grill her

    Can't imagine Marr grilling anybody
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    I'm on in Bristol South. Doncaster North unlikely.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Speaking as a Donny lad born & bred, my view is too many Doncaster voters remain tribally incapable of crossing a box marked 'Conservative' - UKIP or even the BNP would be more palatable. The miners' strike is still a vivid, living memory for many. Turnout will be low, granted, but even at 16/1 this is a hail Mary bet.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Doncaster North looks possible on paper, but I think Ed Miliband will do better than other MPs with similar constituencies simply because he'll be seen as an embodiment of Labour before the Corbyn disaster. Still, 16/1 might have been worth a punt, but it's no longer available.

    He is no longer leader so won't get the leader boost though.
    I think he'll get a nostalgic elder-statesman boost. Odd, I know, since only two years ago he was seen as the ultimate joke of a lightweight, but everything's speeded up in recent politics..
    The William Hague effect (tm)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Brilliant Alastair. Backed these an hour ago.

    Let's hope they come in.

    Oi.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    theakes said:

    We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back

    This is so true. Some of the Tories here remind me of the Tories at the 1989 party conference: "Ten more years! Ten more years!" "Kim il-Sung forever!" In 2017, why stop at 50%? It will be 60%! 70%!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Ghedebrav, cheers for that. I was wondering (not my patch, though) but with the polls as they are, things are hard to predict.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    freetochoose said:

    Pulpstar said:

    freetochoose said:

    Very good header but I can't help thinking too much is being made of Remain/Leave voters, the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    In a nutshell they don't like Corbyn, much prefer May to Cameron and have no Ukip to turn to. Libs will pick up a few as usual but the Tories will win a landslide.

    There is a danger of looking for nuances and angles that don't exist, its a very straightforward scenario.

    the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    No no no no.

    You misunderstand Alistair's point completely. The remain/leave split is valid not because people voted remain or leave but because of their CIRCUMSTANCE that caused the remain or leave vote.
    Handily it can be modelled/guessed at by the remain/leave votes in a constituency.

    Look at the swings in Scotland compared to the independence vote. Biggest swings in Glasgow for instance.
    I'm afraid we disagree, there is a danger that politicos look for things that don't exist, the public don't like politics or politicians and decide who to vote for by newspaper headlines and the 6 o'clock news.

    To them Corbyn is a fruitcake, May isn't an old Etonian, the Libs are a bit, well, Liberal and Ukip are gone.

    Not for the first time Meeks makes a sound case to back certain things but the bigger picture is far from complicated.

    Do you want a bet then.

    The Labour -> Tory swing will be greater in Hull east than it will be in Streatham - which both ought to be safish Labour seats..

    You win if there is a bigger swing in Streatham, I win if it is Hull East.

    Streatham starts off closer, and with a higher Tory % share. So if you don't think leave/remain is a factor then be my guest up to £50.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    theakes said:

    We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back

    In the last couple of elections the movement from the polling positions seven weeks beforehand has been a few points maximum.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    rottenborough said:

    IanB2 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Put a smidgen on the Conservatives on Doncaster North, cheers for the tip.

    Are you able to access the seat markets on BFSB? On my account they disappeared yesterday.
    Seem ok today. I have found sometimes they disappear and then reappear a few minutes later. Odd.
    They simply don't show for me and haven't done for a couple days. I am wondering whether they have barred me from them because I complained about their voiding my £2 Wokingham bet.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Ghedebrav said:

    Speaking as a Donny lad born & bred, my view is too many Doncaster voters remain tribally incapable of crossing a box marked 'Conservative' - UKIP or even the BNP would be more palatable. The miners' strike is still a vivid, living memory for many. Turnout will be low, granted, but even at 16/1 this is a hail Mary bet.

    Interesting, I'm near ex mining communities and for the first time ever I'm hearing diehard Labour voters who went to Ukip saying they'll vote for May. Numbers may not be significant but for plenty May isn't the epitome of a Tory that Cameron and Osborne represent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Cyan said:

    theakes said:

    We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back

    This is so true. Some of the Tories here remind me of the Tories at the 1989 party conference: "Ten more years! Ten more years!" "Kim il-Sung forever!" In 2017, why stop at 50%? It will be 60%! 70%!
    Tories like Alistair Meeks ?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Is Keir Starmer's jaw wired together? He looks and sounds like a Thunderbirds puppet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    freetochoose said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Speaking as a Donny lad born & bred, my view is too many Doncaster voters remain tribally incapable of crossing a box marked 'Conservative' - UKIP or even the BNP would be more palatable. The miners' strike is still a vivid, living memory for many. Turnout will be low, granted, but even at 16/1 this is a hail Mary bet.

    Interesting, I'm near ex mining communities and for the first time ever I'm hearing diehard Labour voters who went to Ukip saying they'll vote for May. Numbers may not be significant but for plenty May isn't the epitome of a Tory that Cameron and Osborne represent.
    And did they vote to leave in the EU Ref ?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Doncaster North looks possible on paper, but I think Ed Miliband will do better than other MPs with similar constituencies simply because he'll be seen as an embodiment of Labour before the Corbyn disaster. Still, 16/1 might have been worth a punt, but it's no longer available.

    He is no longer leader so won't get the leader boost though.
    I think he'll get a nostalgic elder-statesman boost. Odd, I know, since only two years ago he was seen as the ultimate joke of a lightweight, but everything's speeded up in recent politics..
    Turns out he was the penultimate joke of a lightweight. Or not, depending on who eventually replaces Corbyn...

    And thank you Mr Meeks. Threads like this are why I come here.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Brilliant Alastair. Backed these an hour ago.

    Let's hope they come in.

    Oi.
    What ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Back in the late 90s, shortly after the Scottish Tories were wiped out in the 1997 Labour landslide, Sir Malcolm Rifkind used to make a little speech in which he claimed that up to 40% of Scots voters were potential Conservatives.

    It seemed far-fetched at the time, but judging by a couple of opinion polls at the weekend the former MP for Edinburgh Pentlands might have been on to something.

    There is an irony in all of this: anti-Toryism is practically part of the SNP and independence movement's political DNA, yet the first referendum in 2014, and especially the prospect of another in two years' time, has provided the impetus for a Scottish Conservative revival which could deprive the still mighty SNP of several seats come June 8th. Sir Malcolm should be proud of his electoral foresight.

    http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/04/25/the-conservatives-are-making-a-comeback-in-scotland-sturgeon

    If the Tories do win 12 seats, Scottish Tories will be toasting Nicola for making it all possible...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Shadsy prices going up
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Starmer's speech - Guardian not over impressed:

    In his speech he was more specific on policy, not least accepting that Labour would continue to effectively adopt new EU labour regulations after Brexit. That is a significant commitment.

    But in other respects he was unpersuasive. Starmer claimed that Labour would prioritise the economy over controlling immigration in the Brexit talks, unlike Theresa May who says the opposite. However he also said that Labour could no longer accept the current rules on free movement, suggesting that in practice Labour Brexit negotiators would be in much the same position as Tory ones; haggling for the best possible access to the single market while refusing to give the free movement guarantees that could keep the UK in.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/25/general-election-2017-labour-pledge-to-wipe-brexit-slate-clean-politics-live
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/856825549314023426

    We need Rod Crosby back.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,411
    IanB2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    IanB2 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Put a smidgen on the Conservatives on Doncaster North, cheers for the tip.

    Are you able to access the seat markets on BFSB? On my account they disappeared yesterday.
    Seem ok today. I have found sometimes they disappear and then reappear a few minutes later. Odd.
    They simply don't show for me and haven't done for a couple days. I am wondering whether they have barred me from them because I complained about their voiding my £2 Wokingham bet.
    Disappeared for me also.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Hope Doncaster North comes in, I managed to swipe the last of the 25/1 on BFSB.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Ed M on Election Night:

    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/856825985198673923

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Shadsy has started putting up constituency markets

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/856826582509522944
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Hope Doncaster North comes in, I managed to swipe the last of the 25/1 on BFSB.

    Good going. I only managed 16.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Pulpstar said:

    freetochoose said:

    Pulpstar said:

    freetochoose said:

    Very good header but I can't help thinking too much is being made of Remain/Leave voters, the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    In a nutshell they don't like Corbyn, much prefer May to Cameron and have no Ukip to turn to. Libs will pick up a few as usual but the Tories will win a landslide.

    There is a danger of looking for nuances and angles that don't exist, its a very straightforward scenario.

    the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    No no no no.

    You misunderstand Alistair's point completely. The remain/leave split is valid not because people voted remain or leave but because of their CIRCUMSTANCE that caused the remain or leave vote.
    Handily it can be modelled/guessed at by the remain/leave votes in a constituency.

    Look at the swings in Scotland compared to the independence vote. Biggest swings in Glasgow for instance.
    I'm afraid we disagree, there is a danger that politicos look for things that don't exist, the public don't like politics or politicians and decide who to vote for by newspaper headlines and the 6 o'clock news.

    To them Corbyn is a fruitcake, May isn't an old Etonian, the Libs are a bit, well, Liberal and Ukip are gone.

    Not for the first time Meeks makes a sound case to back certain things but the bigger picture is far from complicated.

    Do you want a bet then.

    The Labour -> Tory swing will be greater in Hull east than it will be in Streatham - which both ought to be safish Labour seats..

    You win if there is a bigger swing in Streatham, I win if it is Hull East.

    Streatham starts off closer, and with a higher Tory % share. So if you don't think leave/remain is a factor then be my guest up to £50.
    The more significant factor is not the referendum its geographical demographic, voters in Hull are entirely different to those in SE London.

    I think you're looking for an argument I'm not prepared to have, I'm simply saying that the politically obsessed look at elections in an entirely different way to the man in the street.

    In 2015 tories got 11.3m labour 9.3m I'll predict this time it will be something like 14m and 7m. I've no idea how that converts to seats.

    The main reason is that Cameron would have patronised Corbyn and as much as Labour voters don't like Corbyn they loathe the Flashmen.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    edited April 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Doncaster North looks possible on paper, but I think Ed Miliband will do better than other MPs with similar constituencies simply because he'll be seen as an embodiment of Labour before the Corbyn disaster. Still, 16/1 might have been worth a punt, but it's no longer available.

    He is no longer leader so won't get the leader boost though.
    I think he'll get a nostalgic elder-statesman boost. Odd, I know, since only two years ago he was seen as the ultimate joke of a lightweight, but everything's speeded up in recent politics..
    Personally I always thought he was fine, and would have made an OK PM. He didn't even do that badly, as he was up against Cameron who was very strong - and Lab/Tory seats were pretty much a wash which just depended on demographics/geography of the particular seat (Ilford North/Gower).
    Not brilliant but halycon days compared to where Labour is now.

    Ed was an awful Labour leader - the second worst it has had in living memory - but under him the party put on close to 750,000 votes and improved its vote share. My guess is that we will not see anything similar on 8th June.

  • glwglw Posts: 10,010
    Scott_P said:

    If the Tories do win 12 seats, Scottish Tories will be toasting Nicola for making it all possible...

    But not as much as they will be toasting Ruth Davidson.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Just checking Ladbrokes.

    The odds on a Conservative majority of over 100 are just 1.72. Not good for democracy. But the result of having a cretin like Corbyn as the alternative.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Pulpstar said:

    freetochoose said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Speaking as a Donny lad born & bred, my view is too many Doncaster voters remain tribally incapable of crossing a box marked 'Conservative' - UKIP or even the BNP would be more palatable. The miners' strike is still a vivid, living memory for many. Turnout will be low, granted, but even at 16/1 this is a hail Mary bet.

    Interesting, I'm near ex mining communities and for the first time ever I'm hearing diehard Labour voters who went to Ukip saying they'll vote for May. Numbers may not be significant but for plenty May isn't the epitome of a Tory that Cameron and Osborne represent.
    And did they vote to leave in the EU Ref ?
    Yes
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Not really disagreeing with Alastair , however I would put no weight to the figures given in the ICM poll for Labour seats with a less than 15% majority . There is no way that the Conservatives will poll 48% in these seats yet only 40% in the seats with a Conservative majority less than 16% .
    If the figures do not make sense then some of them are certainly wrong . We may not know which or whether all are wrong but do not bet on false data .
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    rottenborough said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Hope Doncaster North comes in, I managed to swipe the last of the 25/1 on BFSB.

    Good going. I only managed 16.
    At times like this PB is a bloody awesome resource.
    Is there any news on any election night piss ups being organized.
    I've got the 9th off work, so am looking to go somewhere for the evening/night/

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    Hills have a few constituencies up, and Coral's have 3 - Bermondsey and Old Southwark might be value (I've not bet though)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    theakes said:

    We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back


    Oh, the old 'once the voters get to know Jeremy' straw view.

    Most voters think they already DO know Jeremy

    Do you think is doing net well / (don't know)

    May: +17 (12)
    Corbyn: -52 (17)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tz9dxy8t29/SundayTimesResults_170421_VI_W.pdf
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Shadsy has started putting up constituency markets

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/856826582509522944

    Too slow old man. You're going to have to be faster than that to beat me.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    freetochoose said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Speaking as a Donny lad born & bred, my view is too many Doncaster voters remain tribally incapable of crossing a box marked 'Conservative' - UKIP or even the BNP would be more palatable. The miners' strike is still a vivid, living memory for many. Turnout will be low, granted, but even at 16/1 this is a hail Mary bet.

    Interesting, I'm near ex mining communities and for the first time ever I'm hearing diehard Labour voters who went to Ukip saying they'll vote for May. Numbers may not be significant but for plenty May isn't the epitome of a Tory that Cameron and Osborne represent.
    I dont doubt it - and let's not forget that Orgreave went Lib Dem(!) in a local by-election recently. But I suspect the UKIP vote will hold up a bit better than average here; turnout will fall to about 50% and despite a bit of swing to the Tories, EdM will hold on. Weirdly, the fact that he is who he is will shield him somewhat from the Corbyn-fruitcake effect.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    freetochoose said:

    Pulpstar said:

    freetochoose said:

    Pulpstar said:

    freetochoose said:

    Very good header but I can't help thinking too much is being made of Remain/Leave voters, the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    In a nutshell they don't like Corbyn, much prefer May to Cameron and have no Ukip to turn to. Libs will pick up a few as usual but the Tories will win a landslide.

    There is a danger of looking for nuances and angles that don't exist, its a very straightforward scenario.

    the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    No no no no.

    You misunderstand Alistair's point completely. The remain/leave split is valid not because people voted remain or leave but because of their CIRCUMSTANCE that caused the remain or leave vote.
    Handily it can be modelled/guessed at by the remain/leave votes in a constituency.

    Look at the swings in Scotland compared to the independence vote. Biggest swings in Glasgow for instance.
    I'm afraid we disagree, there is a danger that politicos look for things that don't exist, the public don't like politics or politicians and decide who to vote for by newspaper headlines and the 6 o'clock news.

    To them Corbyn is a fruitcake, May isn't an old Etonian, the Libs are a bit, well, Liberal and Ukip are gone.

    Not for the first time Meeks makes a sound case to back certain things but the bigger picture is far from complicated.

    Do you want a bet then.

    The Labour -> Tory swing will be greater in Hull east than it will be in Streatham - which both ought to be safish Labour seats..

    You win if there is a bigger swing in Streatham, I win if it is Hull East.

    Streatham starts off closer, and with a higher Tory % share. So if you don't think leave/remain is a factor then be my guest up to £50.
    The more significant factor is not the referendum its geographical demographic, voters in Hull are entirely different to those in SE London.

    I think you're looking for an argument I'm not prepared to have, I'm simply saying that the politically obsessed look at elections in an entirely different way to the man in the street.

    In 2015 tories got 11.3m labour 9.3m I'll predict this time it will be something like 14m and 7m. I've no idea how that converts to seats.

    The main reason is that Cameron would have patronised Corbyn and as much as Labour voters don't like Corbyn they loathe the Flashmen.
    There is a consensus amongst the man on the street that labour are up shit creek. Its different this time.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the Tories do win 12 seats, Scottish Tories will be toasting Nicola for making it all possible...

    But not as much as they will be toasting Ruth Davidson.
    They'll be toasting SLab the most as that's where their extra votes have come from.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    edited April 2017
    The betting markets are far more twitchy in this election.

    Remember how long it took them to react to the evidence right in front of their face of the SLabour wipeout prior to GE2015?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    IanB2 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Put a smidgen on the Conservatives on Doncaster North, cheers for the tip.

    Are you able to access the seat markets on BFSB? On my account they disappeared yesterday.
    Seem ok today. I have found sometimes they disappear and then reappear a few minutes later. Odd.
    They simply don't show for me and haven't done for a couple days. I am wondering whether they have barred me from them because I complained about their voiding my £2 Wokingham bet.
    Disappeared for me also.
    None for me either.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Scott_P said:

    anti-Toryism is practically part of the SNP and independence movement's political DNA.

    As Scottish Labour found out, there's only so far 'Not the Tories' can carry you. The Tories get a moderately likeable leader and the bottom drops out of the market.

    The SNP only have two tricks 'Independence' and 'Not the Tories' - we know they are not making progress on the first - and time may be running out on the second.....
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/dehavilland/status/856822513422270464

    Just got my invitation to the meeting to adopt him. Last week he said he would stand. Wonder what changed his mind.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    nielh said:

    freetochoose said:

    Pulpstar said:

    freetochoose said:

    Pulpstar said:

    freetochoose said:

    Very good header but I can't help thinking too much is being made of Remain/Leave voters, the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    In a nutshell they don't like Corbyn, much prefer May to Cameron and have no Ukip to turn to. Libs will pick up a few as usual but the Tories will win a landslide.

    There is a danger of looking for nuances and angles that don't exist, its a very straightforward scenario.

    the general electorate simply aren't as concerned as those on here.

    No no no no.

    You misunderstand Alistair's point completely. The remain/leave split is valid not because people voted remain or leave but because of their CIRCUMSTANCE that caused the remain or leave vote.
    Handily it can be modelled/guessed at by the remain/leave votes in a constituency.

    Look at the swings in Scotland compared to the independence vote. Biggest swings in Glasgow for instance.
    I'm afraid we disagree, there is a danger that politicos look for things that don't exist, the public don't like politics or politicians and decide who to vote for by newspaper headlines and the 6 o'clock news.

    To them Corbyn is a fruitcake, May isn't an old Etonian, the Libs are a bit, well, Liberal and Ukip are gone.

    Not for the first time Meeks makes a sound case to back certain things but the bigger picture is far from complicated.

    Do you want a bet then.

    The Labour -> Tory swing will be greater in Hull east than it will be in Streatham - which both ought to be safish Labour seats..

    You win if there is a bigger swing in Streatham, I win if it is Hull East.

    Streatham starts off closer, and with a higher Tory % share. So if you don't think leave/remain is a factor then be my guest up to £50.
    The more significant factor is not the referendum its geographical demographic, voters in Hull are entirely different to those in SE London.

    I think you're looking for an argument I'm not prepared to have, I'm simply saying that the politically obsessed look at elections in an entirely different way to the man in the street.

    In 2015 tories got 11.3m labour 9.3m I'll predict this time it will be something like 14m and 7m. I've no idea how that converts to seats.

    The main reason is that Cameron would have patronised Corbyn and as much as Labour voters don't like Corbyn they loathe the Flashmen.
    There is a consensus amongst the man on the street that labour are up shit creek. Its different this time.
    Correct, in most constituencies there is a binary choice, no Ukip to muddy the waters.

    The choice is May or Corbyn, everything else is irrelevant.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,263
    Labour losing Balls and then Miliband - and lead by "Stop The War" Jeremy Corbyn - Labour really would be the Party of the Ed-less Chickens.....
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Can't find individual seats offers anywhere except a few of little interest on Sky. Wassup?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited April 2017
    SouthamObserver said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Doncaster North looks possible on paper, but I think Ed Miliband will do better than other MPs with similar constituencies simply because he'll be seen as an embodiment of Labour before the Corbyn disaster. Still, 16/1 might have been worth a punt, but it's no longer available.

    He is no longer leader so won't get the leader boost though.
    I think he'll get a nostalgic elder-statesman boost. Odd, I know, since only two years ago he was seen as the ultimate joke of a lightweight, but everything's speeded up in recent politics..
    Personally I always thought he was fine, and would have made an OK PM. He didn't even do that badly, as he was up against Cameron who was very strong - and Lab/Tory seats were pretty much a wash which just depended on demographics/geography of the particular seat (Ilford North/Gower).
    Not brilliant but halycon days compared to where Labour is now.

    Ed was an awful Labour leader - the second worst it has had in living memory - but under him the party put on close to 750,000 votes and improved its vote share. My guess is that we will not see anything similar on 8th June.

    Disagree SO. Ed was painted as an awful leader by the press. I am not saying that he was an inspirational giant but Ed was ok. And he was up against Cameron who history will show saved the Tory party.

    On Corbyn, we are 100% aligned though!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,881
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/856831155777269767
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Pulpstar said:

    Fenman said:

    Let's see what the local election results are first shall we?

    Why ?
    Because the Labour turnout will be very poor as their supporters decide they can only be bothered to vote once. Many punters and bookies may fail to pick up on this and give us odds on Labour losses that fail to take full account of the true PTV.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/dehavilland/status/856822513422270464



    That'll be a nice job for life for someone...

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    YouGov analysis on the demographics helping drive voting patterns - class is out, age is in:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/demographics-dividing-britain/
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Just checking Ladbrokes.

    The odds on a Conservative majority of over 100 are just 1.72. Not good for democracy. But the result of having a cretin like Corbyn as the alternative.

    It feels a bit like we're heading for a (Tory) government of national unity though. The country uniting behind May as our chosen negotiator for Brexit. In normal times I'd share your 'not good', however perhaps there are benefits this time round. Also a total thrashing for the other parties will give them plenty of time to regroup whilst the Tories are dealing with Brexit.

    Perhaps there are parallels with Churchill and WW2, although the mere mention does perhaps feel like I'm overstating that!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    edited April 2017
    MarqueeMark said:

    Labour losing Balls and then Miliband - and lead by "Stop The War" Jeremy Corbyn - Labour really would be the Party of the Ed-less Chickens.....

    LOL! Miliband losing might this election's Portilo moment?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Fenman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fenman said:

    Let's see what the local election results are first shall we?

    Why ?
    Because the Labour turnout will be very poor as their supporters decide they can only be bothered to vote once. Many punters and bookies may fail to pick up on this and give us odds on Labour losses that fail to take full account of the true PTV.
    If Labour voters don't show up for locals then surely that might bring the price errm DOWN ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    edited April 2017
    Camberwell and Peckham @ 1.02 - Doubt even Labour can lose that one this time round. *No bet*

    Bermondsey Lib Dem Gain, Brentford Con Gain *ahem*.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Theresa May will be on Andrew Marr show on Sunday morning
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    edited April 2017
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/856831155777269767

    I think it's very unlikely Open Britain's "decapitation strategy" will get anywhere...
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,252
    Pulpstar said:

    Camberwell and Peckham @ 1.02 - Doubt even Labour can lose that one this time round. *No bet*

    Bermondsey Lib Dem Gain, Brentford Con Hold.

    Brentford is Lab currently...
  • CommanderShepardCommanderShepard Posts: 135
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/856831155777269767

    Has there ever there been a time since the government has had such piss poor opposition. Labour are fast becoming an irrelevance and the Lib Dems are ignoring 52% of the population.

    Someone commented below that the polls are the high water mark for the Tories. The Tories only face two problems and they are both internal. Namely ensuring they avoid hubris at all costs and ensure that they get supporters out to vote.
This discussion has been closed.