Do people expect the Tories to under or out perform uniform national swing?
I don't think there'll be a UNS in the first place. What indications there are suggest the Tories have potential to do significantly better and the LibDems slightly better than a forecast based on UNS.
I wonder. Tory vote last time was quite efficient wasn't it?
We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back
Well of course it is possible that support will drift away from the Tories and back towards Jezza in the next five weeks... But there's no political "law" that says that has to happen...
Indeed what normally happens during an election campaign is that Labour finishes worse than where they start an election campaign...
At this stage it's hard to see quite what will turn the polls for Labour but we shall see...
Lab has its own triple-lock,the ukip to Tory switchers,maybe 80% of the 50% who no longer vote ukip from 2015,Lab-Tory switchers,some of those who make up the 8% swing from Lab-Con,and thirdly,the Lab-Lib Dem switchers as a result of Brexit.I would not accept any bets on a Tory win or lay 1-100 with max stake a tenner. Ante-post Derby selection,Cracksman 14-1,running at Epsom on Wednesday.If he wins and takes to the course that price will crash.
The odds on a Conservative majority of over 100 are just 1.72. Not good for democracy. But the result of having a cretin like Corbyn as the alternative.
It feels a bit like we're heading for a (Tory) government of national unity though.
The odds on a Conservative majority of over 100 are just 1.72. Not good for democracy. But the result of having a cretin like Corbyn as the alternative.
It feels a bit like we're heading for a (Tory) government of national unity though. The country uniting behind May as our chosen negotiator for Brexit. In normal times I'd share your 'not good', however perhaps there are benefits this time round. Also a total thrashing for the other parties will give them plenty of time to regroup whilst the Tories are dealing with Brexit.
Perhaps there are parallels with Churchill and WW2, although the mere mention does perhaps feel like I'm overstating that!
I said on here yesterday that something very strange was happening with this election, something out of the usual run of politics but I hadn't a clue what was causing it. I think, Mr. Omnium, you maybe on to something. The parallel with Churchill in WW2 should not be overstated but the idea that the Nation is rallying round a national leader would go at least some way to explain what is going on.
We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back
Well of course it is possible that support will drift away from the Tories and back towards Jezza in the next five weeks... But there's no political "law" that says that has to happen...
Indeed what normally happens during an election campaign is that Labour finishes worse than where they start an election campaign...
At this stage it's hard to see quite what will turn the polls for Labour but we shall see...
The idea that media exposure of Corbyn is meant to help Labour is something I find truly baffling.
I wonder if Corbyn or our departure from the EU is the prime mover of voters.
Well both factors are clearly very important. It's not just Corbyn though it's Labour more deeply, and in particular their economic shortcomings. Also UKIP really don't have a meme any more, and the LDs aren't blessed with a particularly great leader.
We may well finish up in 5 years time with May having negotiated a brilliant Brexit deal and echoing Churchill's 'effective disguise' thoughts though.
I wonder if Corbyn or our departure from the EU is the prime mover of voters.
Take those two and add a splash of the Sindy obsessed SNP and it all adds up.
It feels like the public in every piece of this country are saying, "we have told you what we want, now get this done and stop bothering us with more calls for referendums and the like."
The domestic policies almost seem like a complete irrelevance.
Let's see what the local election results are first shall we?
Locals in the same year have not always been a good indication of how the GE will go. Labour doing better/Tories worse than expected might be relevant to the outcome, it might not. How much it causes people to overreact will be tricky to determiner.
Has there ever there been a time since the government has had such piss poor opposition. Labour are fast becoming an irrelevance and the Lib Dems are ignoring 52% of the population.
Someone commented below that the polls are the high water mark for the Tories. The Tories only face two problems and they are both internal. Namely ensuring they avoid hubris at all costs and ensure that they get supporters out to vote.
There has been som talk about the LDs it seems on how to keep hold of the LD Leavers and other 'reaching out' ideas, but from the opening of the campaign, with urging of progressive alliances from some big names and so on (even though the Greens are more extreme than most (Tories) it seems like they really don't want the votes of a lot of people.
Tynemouth and Exeter were Tory seats until 1997 Wallasey had never been won by Labour until 1992 - having been the seat of Lynda Chalker and Ernest Marples.
Which is the dominant demographic, age or education? In general, the younger you are the more likely you are to have a degree. There is likely to be quite a correlation between age and education so it is important not to double count?
We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back
Well of course it is possible that support will drift away from the Tories and back towards Jezza in the next five weeks... But there's no political "law" that says that has to happen...
Indeed what normally happens during an election campaign is that Labour finishes worse than where they start an election campaign...
At this stage it's hard to see quite what will turn the polls for Labour but we shall see...
The idea that media exposure of Corbyn is meant to help Labour is something I find truly baffling.
Once the public get to know this kind hearted, avuncular figure, they'll come round.
Anyway, I must be off to perambulate with the hound in the surprisingly chilly weather. Where's the Mediterranean climate we were promised? Clearly, we're not burning enough coal.
We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back
I think that is true, but it is not a certainty - Corbyn is worse even than has been shown early on, and while my thinking is around a stubborn core of labour voters being so loyal as to look past that, along with a core of anti-Tories, they could maintain this lead for some time even if I am right about that, and of course we know it is possible for there to be a tipping point. That, as AM points out, they have been stable or been slightly up in some polls, is why so far I still beleive Labour will hold up better than thought. But it is along way to go.
We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back
Well of course it is possible that support will drift away from the Tories and back towards Jezza in the next five weeks... But there's no political "law" that says that has to happen...
Indeed what normally happens during an election campaign is that Labour finishes worse than where they start an election campaign...
At this stage it's hard to see quite what will turn the polls for Labour but we shall see...
The idea that media exposure of Corbyn is meant to help Labour is something I find truly baffling.
We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back
This is so true. Some of the Tories here remind me of the Tories at the 1989 party conference: "Ten more years! Ten more years!" "Kim il-Sung forever!" In 2017, why stop at 50%? It will be 60%! 70%!
There is plenty of reason for the Tories to be confident and excited, to believe it is possible to get close to 50%. If they are clever the leadership will do all they can to maintain discipline, though of course some people will get triumphant a bit early, and online supporters will show very little discipline at all, but we don't judge parties based on those people.
Let's see what the local election results are first shall we?
Locals in the same year have not always been a good indication of how the GE will go. Labour doing better/Tories worse than expected might be relevant to the outcome, it might not. How much it causes people to overreact will be tricky to determiner.
The Libdems will gain some seats, but I don't see them getting above 20. The mood music of 2015 candidates not wanting to fight 2017 tells its own story. Farron is a poor leader and appeals only to core Lib Dems. At least the late Charles K and Nick Clegg could reach out beyond normal party lines.
It feels like the public in every piece of this country are saying, "we have told you what we want, now get this done and stop bothering us with more calls for referendums and the like."
This is spin rather than analysis. The tracker poll shows very clearly that people are not united about the Brexit decision, even if they see May as the only adult who can deal with it.
Anyway, I must be off to perambulate with the hound in the surprisingly chilly weather. Where's the Mediterranean climate we were promised? Clearly, we're not burning enough coal.
Let's see what the local election results are first shall we?
Locals in the same year have not always been a good indication of how the GE will go. Labour doing better/Tories worse than expected might be relevant to the outcome, it might not. How much it causes people to overreact will be tricky to determiner.
The Libdems will gain some seats, but I don't see them getting above 20. The mood music of 2015 candidates not wanting to fight 2017 tells its own story. Farron is a poor leader and appeals only to core Lib Dems. At least the late Charles K and Nick Clegg could reach out beyond normal party lines.
I think Farron's done ok, he's gotten more exposure late'y too, but it might simply be a bit early for a major comeback, though if they can get to 20 I think they'd be very happy with that. As someone who is not a fan of TMay though - I am not feeling the wave of love that she seems to be getting at the moment from people who otherwise have been lukewarm at best on the Tories - I'm not convinced his party want my vote because I don't prioritise anti-Toryism above all else, and they seem very keen on progressive alliances.
They'll probably still get my vote, being pretty inoffensive (ultra remain position hardly matters when they won't be in power), its a safe tory seat and I think they deserve a come back, but still.
Anyway, I must be off to perambulate with the hound in the surprisingly chilly weather. Where's the Mediterranean climate we were promised? Clearly, we're not burning enough coal.
Everytime he opens his mouth tomorrow's Mail headline ups a font size.
He seems like a truly awful politician.
The fact the "moderates" are rating him as a potential leader is making me question whether it's wise to hand over the party to that wing all over again, even when the Corbyn wing is the alternative.
Which is the dominant demographic, age or education? In general, the younger you are the more likely you are to have a degree. There is likely to be quite a correlation between age and education so it is important not to double count?
I was thinking much the same thing. In my age group less than 10% went to university and amongst my associates of a similar age there seems to be no correlation between those few of us who have degrees and voting intention. YouGov does not seem to have produced any evidence that there is such a correlation. They merely treat age and education as two separate blocks. My guess would be that age is the dominant factor and educational attainment is pretty much irrelevant.
We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back
I think that is true, but it is not a certainty - Corbyn is worse even than has been shown early on, and while my thinking is around a stubborn core of labour voters being so loyal as to look past that, along with a core of anti-Tories, they could maintain this lead for some time even if I am right about that, and of course we know it is possible for there to be a tipping point. That, as AM points out, they have been stable or been slightly up in some polls, is why so far I still beleive Labour will hold up better than thought. But it is along way to go.
Labour has actually been pretty stable with some pollsters for quite a while. The latest ICM has them on 27% , which is the same as late July last year - ie 9 months ago.Even with Yougov they have not really slipped for almost 5 months. The bigger Tory lead is due to the collapse of UKIP - rather than Labour.
On topic:- I agree with Alistair, reluctantly, and think Lab are on course to do even worse than UNS, and lose up to 100 seats to the Tories.
HOWEVER, the corollary to this is that Labour really might have a chance of gaining a few Remainy, metropolitan seats from the Tories (even while losing bucketloads of Leave seats to them). Look to Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown, possibly even Battersea, where the EU split was very heavily Remain and are getting more Labourish demographics all the time. There's no way to square the (probably accurate) ICM numbers showing Labour falling by MUCH more than average in their own seats, unless they're also gaining a bit in SOME (though probably not many) Tory-held seats.
Let's see what the local election results are first shall we?
Locals in the same year have not always been a good indication of how the GE will go. Labour doing better/Tories worse than expected might be relevant to the outcome, it might not. How much it causes people to overreact will be tricky to determiner.
The Libdems will gain some seats, but I don't see them getting above 20. The mood music of 2015 candidates not wanting to fight 2017 tells its own story. Farron is a poor leader and appeals only to core Lib Dems. At least the late Charles K and Nick Clegg could reach out beyond normal party lines.
I think Farron's done ok, he's gotten more exposure late'y too, but it might simply be a bit early for a major comeback, though if they can get to 20 I think they'd be very happy with that. As someone who is not a fan of TMay though - I am not feeling the wave of love that she seems to be getting at the moment from people who otherwise have been lukewarm at best on the Tories - I'm not convinced his party want my vote because I don't prioritise anti-Toryism above all else, and they seem very keen on progressive alliances.
They'll probably still get my vote, being pretty inoffensive (ultra remain position hardly matters when they won't be in power), its a safe tory seat and I think they deserve a come back, but still.
I don't think T May is loved, but is importantly trusted and respected. People appear to have made there minds up that voting Tory is not a hate crime anymore.
My vote is in a safer labour seat that will only fall if all the prevailing mood music about Brexit is correct and the WWC move on mass from UKIP to the Tories. It would also need a 5000 votes to move straight from Labour to the Tories.
Let's see what the local election results are first shall we?
Locals in the same year have not always been a good indication of how the GE will go. Labour doing better/Tories worse than expected might be relevant to the outcome, it might not. How much it causes people to overreact will be tricky to determiner.
The Libdems will gain some seats, but I don't see them getting above 20. The mood music of 2015 candidates not wanting to fight 2017 tells its own story. Farron is a poor leader and appeals only to core Lib Dems. At least the late Charles K and Nick Clegg could reach out beyond normal party lines.
I think Farron's done ok, he's gotten more exposure late'y too, but it might simply be a bit early for a major comeback, though if they can get to 20 I think they'd be very happy with that. As someone who is not a fan of TMay though - I am not feeling the wave of love that she seems to be getting at the moment from people who otherwise have been lukewarm at best on the Tories - I'm not convinced his party want my vote because I don't prioritise anti-Toryism above all else, and they seem very keen on progressive alliances.
They'll probably still get my vote, being pretty inoffensive (ultra remain position hardly matters when they won't be in power), its a safe tory seat and I think they deserve a come back, but still.
The poor LibDem performance in 2015 will mean less coverage of them by broadcasters compared with the last few elections. Their entitlement to PPBs is also likely to be reduced.
It feels like the public in every piece of this country are saying, "we have told you what we want, now get this done and stop bothering us with more calls for referendums and the like."
This is spin rather than analysis. The tracker poll shows very clearly that people are not united about the Brexit decision, even if they see May as the only adult who can deal with it.
YG - the weekend - Do you want a referendum on the deal? NO - 61%.
Panelbase - the weekend - another Sindy referendum in the next few years? NO - 52%
Under a third of Scots want a referendum in the next couple of years.
On topic:- I agree with Alistair, reluctantly, and think Lab are on course to do even worse than UNS, and lose up to 100 seats to the Tories.
HOWEVER, the corollary to this is that Labour really might have a chance of gaining a few Remainy, metropolitan seats from the Tories (even while losing bucketloads of Leave seats to them). Look to Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown, possibly even Battersea, where the EU split was very heavily Remain and are getting more Labourish demographics all the time. There's no way to square the (probably accurate) ICM numbers showing Labour falling by MUCH more than average in their own seats, unless they're also gaining a bit in SOME (though probably not many) Tory-held seats.
As others have pointed out, GE17 is essentially a referendum on Corbyn with some intricacies viz. SNP and the LDs.
I firmly believe that if Labour come to their senses and get rid of Corbyn (unlikely) then it's a different prospect - might not change the result but will definitely mean a paring of the seat losses.
On topic:- I agree with Alistair, reluctantly, and think Lab are on course to do even worse than UNS, and lose up to 100 seats to the Tories.
HOWEVER, the corollary to this is that Labour really might have a chance of gaining a few Remainy, metropolitan seats from the Tories (even while losing bucketloads of Leave seats to them). Look to Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown, possibly even Battersea, where the EU split was very heavily Remain and are getting more Labourish demographics all the time. There's no way to square the (probably accurate) ICM numbers showing Labour falling by MUCH more than average in their own seats, unless they're also gaining a bit in SOME (though probably not many) Tory-held seats.
The delusion is that Tory Remainers are going to desert the party. They simply are not, in anything but very small numbers. And they will be trampled to death by the rush in the other direction.
On topic:- I agree with Alistair, reluctantly, and think Lab are on course to do even worse than UNS, and lose up to 100 seats to the Tories.
HOWEVER, the corollary to this is that Labour really might have a chance of gaining a few Remainy, metropolitan seats from the Tories (even while losing bucketloads of Leave seats to them). Look to Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown, possibly even Battersea, where the EU split was very heavily Remain and are getting more Labourish demographics all the time. There's no way to square the (probably accurate) ICM numbers showing Labour falling by MUCH more than average in their own seats, unless they're also gaining a bit in SOME (though probably not many) Tory-held seats.
Labour are only lukewarm Remain if at all, I can't see them gaining much from the 48%.
Let's see what the local election results are first shall we?
Locals in the same year have not always been a good indication of how the GE will go. Labour doing better/Tories worse than expected might be relevant to the outcome, it might not. How much it causes people to overreact will be tricky to determiner.
The Libdems will gain some seats, but I don't see them getting above 20. The mood music of 2015 candidates not wanting to fight 2017 tells its own story. Farron is a poor leader and appeals only to core Lib Dems. At least the late Charles K and Nick Clegg could reach out beyond normal party lines.
I think Farron's done ok, he's gotten more exposure late'y too, but it might simply be a bit early for a major comeback, though if they can get to 20 I think they'd be very happy with that. As someone who is not a fan of TMay though - I am not feeling the wave of love that she seems to be getting at the moment from people who otherwise have been lukewarm at best on the Tories - I'm not convinced his party want my vote because I don't prioritise anti-Toryism above all else, and they seem very keen on progressive alliances.
They'll probably still get my vote, being pretty inoffensive (ultra remain position hardly matters when they won't be in power), its a safe tory seat and I think they deserve a come back, but still.
The poor LibDem performance in 2015 will mean less coverage of them by broadcasters compared with the last few elections. Their entitlement to PPBs is also likely to be reduced.
I think that we LDs will struggle for attention, between Tory triumphalism, electoral fatigue and the car crashes of the Labour and UKIP campaigns. In particular it will be hard to pick up more than a few Tory seats. I am forecasting less than 20 LDs and quite possibly less than 10. Indeed the less than 10 band for the LDs matches current polling, but is 10/1. Sadly I think that good value. I am planning to canvass in Bosworth this weekend, so shall see if my gloom is vindicated. It is our local target seat.
I do wonder whether Remain/Leave will be quite such an issue for Remain MPs in heavily Leave constituencies (like Miliband) as it was, say, in for a Leave MP in heavilt Remain Richmond Park.
In Richmond Park, the MP loudly contributed to a Brexit victory that the large majority of his constituents plainly did not want. There was bound to be considerable anger among a reasonably large proportion of constituents (although let's not forget for many constituents it isn't the be all and end all - plenty of Richmond people voted on the Heathrow or other issues in December).
But the fact is that Leavers are getting broadly what they wanted, so it's harder to get quite as worked up about an MP who was for Remain... it's like trying to get annoyed about a denied penalty appeal when your team has won three-nil anyway.
That's not to say it will be irrelevant. A Leaver would doubtless prefer, all other things being equal, an MP whose heart was in the Brexit process. But I'm not sure there will be the same level of anger, nor desire for revenge, in such constituencies by any means.
I do wonder whether Remain/Leave will be quite such an issue for Remain MPs in heavily Leave constituencies (like Miliband) as it was, say, in for a Leave MP in heavilt Remain Richmond Park.
In Richmond Park, the MP loudly contributed to a Brexit victory that the large majority of his constituents plainly did not want. There was bound to be considerable anger among a reasonably large proportion of constituents (although let's not forget for many constituents it isn't the be all and end all - plenty of Richmond people voted on the Heathrow or other issues in December).
But the fact is that Leavers are getting broadly what they wanted, so it's harder to get quite as worked up about an MP who was for Remain... it's like trying to get annoyed about a denied penalty appeal when your team has won three-nil anyway.
That's not to say it will be irrelevant. A Leaver would doubtless prefer, all other things being equal, an MP whose heart was in the Brexit process. But I'm not sure there will be the same level of anger, nor desire for revenge, in such constituencies by any means.
The amount of disapproval (to put it mildly) on the doorstep towards Mary Creagh needs to be seen to be believed. That she voted against A50 doesn't help her.
The Conservatives haven't won Wakefield since 1931. That run should end this time.
On topic:- I agree with Alistair, reluctantly, and think Lab are on course to do even worse than UNS, and lose up to 100 seats to the Tories.
HOWEVER, the corollary to this is that Labour really might have a chance of gaining a few Remainy, metropolitan seats from the Tories (even while losing bucketloads of Leave seats to them). Look to Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown, possibly even Battersea, where the EU split was very heavily Remain and are getting more Labourish demographics all the time. There's no way to square the (probably accurate) ICM numbers showing Labour falling by MUCH more than average in their own seats, unless they're also gaining a bit in SOME (though probably not many) Tory-held seats.
Labour are only lukewarm Remain if at all, I can't see them gaining much from the 48%.
Again, though, there's no way to square polling numbers that show Labour "only" down a few points from 2015 overall, yet also show Labour dropping like a rock in Leave Labour seats, unless they're also gaining somewhere to make the overall numbers add up.
It's also worth saying that, when we're talking about some of these big-city seats, there don't actually need to be many switchers to Labour in order for Labour to gain the seats; demographic change could do the work. In Cardiff North, for example, since 2015, quite a few elderly Tory voters will have left the seat and gone to retire somewhere quieter (say, Vale of Glamorgan?), while younger Labour voters will have moved into the seat.
I do wonder whether Remain/Leave will be quite such an issue for Remain MPs in heavily Leave constituencies (like Miliband) as it was, say, in for a Leave MP in heavilt Remain Richmond Park.
In Richmond Park, the MP loudly contributed to a Brexit victory that the large majority of his constituents plainly did not want. There was bound to be considerable anger among a reasonably large proportion of constituents (although let's not forget for many constituents it isn't the be all and end all - plenty of Richmond people voted on the Heathrow or other issues in December).
But the fact is that Leavers are getting broadly what they wanted, so it's harder to get quite as worked up about an MP who was for Remain... it's like trying to get annoyed about a denied penalty appeal when your team has won three-nil anyway.
That's not to say it will be irrelevant. A Leaver would doubtless prefer, all other things being equal, an MP whose heart was in the Brexit process. But I'm not sure there will be the same level of anger, nor desire for revenge, in such constituencies by any means.
The amount of disapproval (to put it mildly) on the doorstep towards Mary Creagh needs to be seen to be believed. That she voted against A50 doesn't help her.
The Conservatives haven't won Wakefield since 1931. That run should end this time.
We are all getting over excited. In 5 weeks time it will look different. The Conservatives are at the peak in the polls, they can only fall back
I think that is true, but it is not a certainty - Corbyn is worse even than has been shown early on, and while my thinking is around a stubborn core of labour voters being so loyal as to look past that, along with a core of anti-Tories, they could maintain this lead for some time even if I am right about that, and of course we know it is possible for there to be a tipping point. That, as AM points out, they have been stable or been slightly up in some polls, is why so far I still beleive Labour will hold up better than thought. But it is along way to go.
Labour has actually been pretty stable with some pollsters for quite a while. The latest ICM has them on 27% , which is the same as late July last year - ie 9 months ago.Even with Yougov they have not really slipped for almost 5 months. The bigger Tory lead is due to the collapse of UKIP - rather than Labour.
The most important opinion poll is the one on 4th May. OK, not everywhere is voting but there is no margin of error in an election. If Labour get trounced in the locals it merely confirms the narrative that they will do badly in GE2017.
OTOH if Labour do better than expected in the locals then it will sow seeds of uncertainty about the polls. Next Thursday is an important day for Labour.
On topic:- I agree with Alistair, reluctantly, and think Lab are on course to do even worse than UNS, and lose up to 100 seats to the Tories.
HOWEVER, the corollary to this is that Labour really might have a chance of gaining a few Remainy, metropolitan seats from the Tories (even while losing bucketloads of Leave seats to them). Look to Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown, possibly even Battersea, where the EU split was very heavily Remain and are getting more Labourish demographics all the time. There's no way to square the (probably accurate) ICM numbers showing Labour falling by MUCH more than average in their own seats, unless they're also gaining a bit in SOME (though probably not many) Tory-held seats.
The delusion is that Tory Remainers are going to desert the party. They simply are not, in anything but very small numbers. And they will be trampled to death by the rush in the other direction.
And to the extent that they are doing, the LDs is the favoured destination of choice.
On topic:- I agree with Alistair, reluctantly, and think Lab are on course to do even worse than UNS, and lose up to 100 seats to the Tories.
HOWEVER, the corollary to this is that Labour really might have a chance of gaining a few Remainy, metropolitan seats from the Tories (even while losing bucketloads of Leave seats to them). Look to Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown, possibly even Battersea, where the EU split was very heavily Remain and are getting more Labourish demographics all the time. There's no way to square the (probably accurate) ICM numbers showing Labour falling by MUCH more than average in their own seats, unless they're also gaining a bit in SOME (though probably not many) Tory-held seats.
Labour are only lukewarm Remain if at all, I can't see them gaining much from the 48%.
Again, though, there's no way to square polling numbers that show Labour "only" down a few points from 2015 overall, yet also show Labour dropping like a rock in Leave Labour seats, unless they're also gaining somewhere to make the overall numbers add up.
It's also worth saying that, when we're talking about some of these big-city seats, there don't actually need to be many switchers to Labour in order for Labour to gain the seats; demographic change could do the work. In Cardiff North, for example, since 2015, quite a few elderly Tory voters will have left the seat and gone to retire somewhere quieter (say, Vale of Glamorgan?), while younger Labour voters will have moved into the seat.
Demographics won't have changed that much. The swing against Labour in Cardiff North will likely be on the low side compared to say Torfaen though.
Macron still at 1.16 on the Betfair exchange. The people who are soaking up the bets must have very deep pockets. I guess they're programmed to look for value (and in a two-horse race 15/2 does look like value) but you'd think that at some point someone might flick the switch that says "stop burning money".
Macron still at 1.16 on the Betfair exchange. The people who are soaking up the bets must have very deep pockets. I guess they're programmed to look for value (and in a two-horse race 15/2 does look like value) but you'd think that at some point someone might flick the switch that says "stop burning money".
Let's see what the local election results are first shall we?
Locals in the same year have not always been a good indication of how the GE will go. Labour doing better/Tories worse than expected might be relevant to the outcome, it might not. How much it causes people to overreact will be tricky to determiner.
The Libdems will gain some seats, but I don't see them getting above 20. The mood music of 2015 candidates not wanting to fight 2017 tells its own story. Farron is a poor leader and appeals only to core Lib Dems. At least the late Charles K and Nick Clegg could reach out beyond normal party lines.
I think Farron's done ok, he's gotten more exposure late'y too, but it might simply be a bit early for a major comeback, though if they can get to 20 I think they'd be very happy with that. As someone who is not a fan of TMay though - I am not feeling the wave of love that she seems to be getting at the moment from people who otherwise have been lukewarm at best on the Tories - I'm not convinced his party want my vote because I don't prioritise anti-Toryism above all else, and they seem very keen on progressive alliances.
They'll probably still get my vote, being pretty inoffensive (ultra remain position hardly matters when they won't be in power), its a safe tory seat and I think they deserve a come back, but still.
The poor LibDem performance in 2015 will mean less coverage of them by broadcasters compared with the last few elections. Their entitlement to PPBs is also likely to be reduced.
TV coverage last night of Tim Farron at a Lib Dem gathering which came over as strains of "we're for openness, and tolerance, but gays? Well can we move on please? Is that the time? Must dash.", was not the sort of coverage they need. I do not for one moment suggest that is the Lib Dem view, but the optics on what should be a totally dolly up question (for all surely these days!) were not 100%.
Macron still at 1.16 on the Betfair exchange. The people who are soaking up the bets must have very deep pockets. I guess they're programmed to look for value (and in a two-horse race 15/2 does look like value) but you'd think that at some point someone might flick the switch that says "stop burning money".
Or they backed Macron when he was 20-1.
They're incorrect to lay off at 1.16 actually as of now actually.
Does anyone know whether Metro Mayor results will be published on either a local authority or constituency basis, or will it just be for the area as a whole without splits?
Obviously, this would give a particularly strong indication of local strength. Local council results are useful, but it's hard to know if a result is driven by a handful of well known, strong councillors from one party or other in a locality. For the Metro Mayors, the candidates are the same across a broad area, so a relatively strong result in constituency X in the West Mids for Labour (say) and a relatively weak one in constituency Y would say quite a lot about respective prospects.
Presumably election agents etc will get a good idea at verification, but will us ordinary punters know?
Macron still at 1.16 on the Betfair exchange. The people who are soaking up the bets must have very deep pockets. I guess they're programmed to look for value (and in a two-horse race 15/2 does look like value) but you'd think that at some point someone might flick the switch that says "stop burning money".
Or they backed Macron when he was 20-1.
They're incorrect to lay off at 1.16 actually as of now actually.
Depends on how frit you are. Gambling is only a rational activity for a minority. [I do not count myself as truly part of that minority]
Macron still at 1.16 on the Betfair exchange. The people who are soaking up the bets must have very deep pockets. I guess they're programmed to look for value (and in a two-horse race 15/2 does look like value) but you'd think that at some point someone might flick the switch that says "stop burning money".
Macron still at 1.16 on the Betfair exchange. The people who are soaking up the bets must have very deep pockets. I guess they're programmed to look for value (and in a two-horse race 15/2 does look like value) but you'd think that at some point someone might flick the switch that says "stop burning money".
Or they backed Macron when he was 20-1.
They're incorrect to lay off at 1.16 actually as of now actually.
Not if they can deploy the capital more effectively elsewhere.
I think people may be underestimating how devastating Chris Hanretty's findings were for Labour. Bear in mind that he was finding a 7 point swing from Labour to the Tories in Labour-held seats... measured against overall support levels of Con 39, Lab 31. Basically, against a one point national swing.
He also found a 3 point swing from Tories to Labour in Tory-held seats, but as long as the national swing is greater than 3 points from that position (ie, say, Con 42, Lab 28), that's just mitigating the vote loss in second place.
It's dubious mathematically to simply overlay a straight swing from then to now (not only because the findings uncovered a very non-UNS swing in the first place, but because deeper Labour bedrock seats may well swing differently to more marginal ones), but doing so can illustrate just how bad it could get.
Essentially, and as long as the polls have the Tories leading by more than 14 points anyway (to overrule the pro-Lab swing in Tory-held seats), it could be indicative to simply add 5 to the Tory score, take 7 off the Labour score and add 5 to the Lib Dem score.
If you do, it's devastating for Labour. Remember - this is based on a lot of assumptions (that those findings hold up all the way to the election, that superimposing national swing since that time is valid, that the deeper red Labour seats still swing similarly when down to bedrock) and would give only an indication of numbers rather than specific seats), but it does illustrate the limits of just how bad it could possibly get.
(Personally, I find it hard to believe it could be that bad for Labour. But then I remember 2015 in Scotland, 1997 for the Tories, 2015 for the Lib Dems and wonder if I'm incredulous because it's genuinely improbable or just outside of my experience.
Macron still at 1.16 on the Betfair exchange. The people who are soaking up the bets must have very deep pockets. I guess they're programmed to look for value (and in a two-horse race 15/2 does look like value) but you'd think that at some point someone might flick the switch that says "stop burning money".
Or they backed Macron when he was 20-1.
They're incorrect to lay off at 1.16 actually as of now actually.
Depends on how frit you are. Gambling is only a rational activity for a minority. [I do not count myself as truly part of that minority]
I'm amongst the frit to be honest. Except with Corbyn, though I have backed some under 398.5 Tory seats as a hedge.
On topic:- I agree with Alistair, reluctantly, and think Lab are on course to do even worse than UNS, and lose up to 100 seats to the Tories.
HOWEVER, the corollary to this is that Labour really might have a chance of gaining a few Remainy, metropolitan seats from the Tories (even while losing bucketloads of Leave seats to them). Look to Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown, possibly even Battersea, where the EU split was very heavily Remain and are getting more Labourish demographics all the time. There's no way to square the (probably accurate) ICM numbers showing Labour falling by MUCH more than average in their own seats, unless they're also gaining a bit in SOME (though probably not many) Tory-held seats.
Labour are only lukewarm Remain if at all, I can't see them gaining much from the 48%.
Again, though, there's no way to square polling numbers that show Labour "only" down a few points from 2015 overall, yet also show Labour dropping like a rock in Leave Labour seats, unless they're also gaining somewhere to make the overall numbers add up.
It's also worth saying that, when we're talking about some of these big-city seats, there don't actually need to be many switchers to Labour in order for Labour to gain the seats; demographic change could do the work. In Cardiff North, for example, since 2015, quite a few elderly Tory voters will have left the seat and gone to retire somewhere quieter (say, Vale of Glamorgan?), while younger Labour voters will have moved into the seat.
I think the Tories held with an increased majority last time and after the Welsh poll yesterday it's hard to see them not increasing again. Battersea also bucked the London trend last time and i'd expect an increased majority. Possible Labour gain in Croydon central but I wouldn't bet on it.
On topic:- I agree with Alistair, reluctantly, and think Lab are on course to do even worse than UNS, and lose up to 100 seats to the Tories.
HOWEVER, the corollary to this is that Labour really might have a chance of gaining a few Remainy, metropolitan seats from the Tories (even while losing bucketloads of Leave seats to them). Look to Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown, possibly even Battersea, where the EU split was very heavily Remain and are getting more Labourish demographics all the time. There's no way to square the (probably accurate) ICM numbers showing Labour falling by MUCH more than average in their own seats, unless they're also gaining a bit in SOME (though probably not many) Tory-held seats.
Labour are only lukewarm Remain if at all, I can't see them gaining much from the 48%.
Again, though, there's no way to square polling numbers that show Labour "only" down a few points from 2015 overall, yet also show Labour dropping like a rock in Leave Labour seats, unless they're also gaining somewhere to make the overall numbers add up.
It's also worth saying that, when we're talking about some of these big-city seats, there don't actually need to be many switchers to Labour in order for Labour to gain the seats; demographic change could do the work. In Cardiff North, for example, since 2015, quite a few elderly Tory voters will have left the seat and gone to retire somewhere quieter (say, Vale of Glamorgan?), while younger Labour voters will have moved into the seat.
Demographics won't have changed that much. The swing against Labour in Cardiff North will likely be on the low side compared to say Torfaen though.
Cardiff North was a seat where the Tories rather over performed from memory last time (Maj from about 200 to 2100 or so). Lots and lots of new private building literally going on now which will change things one way and another (and the boundaries too I guess such is the scale) in future, but since 2015 I can't see a lot has changed. It includes less well off areas such as Gabalfa, and Llandaff North, solid 1920/30's semis in the Heath, Rhiwbina and Whitchurch, the edge of the Valleys in Tongwynlais, big private 90's estate in Pontprennau, and a Welsh version of Surrey in Lisvane. It should be pretty Tory but it was pretty Remainy also, and I'm guessing there's a lot of Welsh Govt, BBC, types too to tip it the other way. But I doubt enough to tip it out of the Tory column this time.
Serious "Remain Central", is Cardiff Central (a 24 carat University seat) where Labour defend a 4900 maj in a straight fight with the Lib Dems, who must be very serious about it as they have just, as of yesterday, selected their Assembly candidate from last year to fight it.
Serious "Remain Central", is Cardiff Central (a 24 carat University seat) where Labour defend a 4900 maj in a straight fight with the Lib Dems, who must be very serious about it as they have just, as of yesterday, selected their Assembly candidate from last year to fight it.
I have backed the Lib Dems here. It will be heading back to the orange column.
On topic:- I agree with Alistair, reluctantly, and think Lab are on course to do even worse than UNS, and lose up to 100 seats to the Tories.
HOWEVER, the corollary to this is that Labour really might have a chance of gaining a few Remainy, metropolitan seats from the Tories (even while losing bucketloads of Leave seats to them). Look to Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown, possibly even Battersea, where the EU split was very heavily Remain and are getting more Labourish demographics all the time. There's no way to square the (probably accurate) ICM numbers showing Labour falling by MUCH more than average in their own seats, unless they're also gaining a bit in SOME (though probably not many) Tory-held seats.
Labour are only lukewarm Remain if at all, I can't see them gaining much from the 48%.
Again, though, there's no way to square polling numbers that show Labour "only" down a few points from 2015 overall, yet also show Labour dropping like a rock in Leave Labour seats, unless they're also gaining somewhere to make the overall numbers add up.
It's also worth saying that, when we're talking about some of these big-city seats, there don't actually need to be many switchers to Labour in order for Labour to gain the seats; demographic change could do the work. In Cardiff North, for example, since 2015, quite a few elderly Tory voters will have left the seat and gone to retire somewhere quieter (say, Vale of Glamorgan?), while younger Labour voters will have moved into the seat.
I think the Tories held with an increased majority last time and after the Welsh poll yesterday it's hard to see them not increasing again. Battersea also bucked the London trend last time and i'd expect an increased majority. Possible Labour gain in Croydon central but I wouldn't bet on it.
I think Croydon Central is a less likely gain because it was pretty much 50/50 in the referendum (possibly even marginally Leave), and it's demographics are a bit more typically "south-eastern" rather than typically "London". I'd expect a further swing to the Tories there.
Battersea on the other hand was 75/25 Remain, and has one of the highest young population of any constituency in the country. Probably still a Tory hold, but maybe a swing away from them against the tide.
One issue that i am not sure we have considered is the motivation and workload of the party faithful to carry on canvassing and to get out the vote in a GE
The usual stalwarts will have canvassed in 2015 for a GE 2016 for the Referendum and now again in 2017 for the GE For the Scots you also have to add in Referendum 2014 and Holyrood 2016
SNP will clearly have been lifted by 2014/15/16 and should be up for 2017 Cons will have been overjoyed with 2015, many although not all the same for 2016-especially as these were regarded as unexpected successes so if you were part of the GOTV team you really feel your efforts made a difference. Lib Dems and Labour campaigners -with a few exceptions in the Labour Brexit camp- have had a very dispiriting time.
I know from from my experiences in 97/2001 that big heavy defeats saps your confidence and energy.
Are Labour in particular going to be able to mobilize sufficient numbers of supporters to GOTV??
OGH rightly emphasis's the importance of GOTV-motivating your supporters to go out and campaign for a Corbyn led Party in what looks like being a shellacking is going to be a big ask.
Caithness looks a decent option at 4/6 on the SNP to hold on to what is already quite a decent majority. What we do know is that Thurso can't contest the seat again since he's now a Lord and so there is no question of the defeated LD incumbent contesting this one again.
Comments
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/corbyn-wins-first-celebrity-endorsement-snap-election/
Indeed what normally happens during an election campaign is that Labour finishes worse than where they start an election campaign...
At this stage it's hard to see quite what will turn the polls for Labour but we shall see...
I wonder if Corbyn or our departure from the EU is the prime mover of voters.
Ante-post Derby selection,Cracksman 14-1,running at Epsom on Wednesday.If he wins and takes to the course that price will crash.
We may well finish up in 5 years time with May having negotiated a brilliant Brexit deal and echoing Churchill's 'effective disguise' thoughts though.
It feels like the public in every piece of this country are saying, "we have told you what we want, now get this done and stop bothering us with more calls for referendums and the like."
The domestic policies almost seem like a complete irrelevance.
Everytime he opens his mouth tomorrow's Mail headline ups a font size.
Does Margaret Beckett have any regrets I wonder.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/who-are-the-morons-who-nominated-jeremy-corbyn-for-the-labour-leadership-contest-10406527.html
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
They'll probably still get my vote, being pretty inoffensive (ultra remain position hardly matters when they won't be in power), its a safe tory seat and I think they deserve a come back, but still.
The fact the "moderates" are rating him as a potential leader is making me question whether it's wise to hand over the party to that wing all over again, even when the Corbyn wing is the alternative.
https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/856841748647219205
http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/update/2017-04-25/baths-lib-dem-prospective-candidate-pulls-out-of-2017-election/
HOWEVER, the corollary to this is that Labour really might have a chance of gaining a few Remainy, metropolitan seats from the Tories (even while losing bucketloads of Leave seats to them). Look to Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown, possibly even Battersea, where the EU split was very heavily Remain and are getting more Labourish demographics all the time. There's no way to square the (probably accurate) ICM numbers showing Labour falling by MUCH more than average in their own seats, unless they're also gaining a bit in SOME (though probably not many) Tory-held seats.
My vote is in a safer labour seat that will only fall if all the prevailing mood music about Brexit is correct and the WWC move on mass from UKIP to the Tories. It would also need a 5000 votes to move straight from Labour to the Tories.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/25/starmer-on-corbyn-then-and-now/
That 147 in 5m20s though. Still a ridiculous feat.
Panelbase - the weekend - another Sindy referendum in the next few years? NO - 52%
Under a third of Scots want a referendum in the next couple of years.
I firmly believe that if Labour come to their senses and get rid of Corbyn (unlikely) then it's a different prospect - might not change the result but will definitely mean a paring of the seat losses.
https://reaction.life/insurgent-political-party-election-called-conservatives/
https://reaction.life/ukip-now-just-bnp-suits/
I'd never bet on embargoed polling.
In Richmond Park, the MP loudly contributed to a Brexit victory that the large majority of his constituents plainly did not want. There was bound to be considerable anger among a reasonably large proportion of constituents (although let's not forget for many constituents it isn't the be all and end all - plenty of Richmond people voted on the Heathrow or other issues in December).
But the fact is that Leavers are getting broadly what they wanted, so it's harder to get quite as worked up about an MP who was for Remain... it's like trying to get annoyed about a denied penalty appeal when your team has won three-nil anyway.
That's not to say it will be irrelevant. A Leaver would doubtless prefer, all other things being equal, an MP whose heart was in the Brexit process. But I'm not sure there will be the same level of anger, nor desire for revenge, in such constituencies by any means.
The Conservatives haven't won Wakefield since 1931. That run should end this time.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-39681158 (13:22)
It's also worth saying that, when we're talking about some of these big-city seats, there don't actually need to be many switchers to Labour in order for Labour to gain the seats; demographic change could do the work. In Cardiff North, for example, since 2015, quite a few elderly Tory voters will have left the seat and gone to retire somewhere quieter (say, Vale of Glamorgan?), while younger Labour voters will have moved into the seat.
'Tyrie retiring. Tory gain '
OTOH if Labour do better than expected in the locals then it will sow seeds of uncertainty about the polls. Next Thursday is an important day for Labour.
I was too stunned to bet (though I had followed Alastair's tips from the summer of 2014) but betting more would have felt greedy.
A politically United Kingdom also strengthens the UK's hand in the EU negotiations.
May won't have to watch her back quite so much, and the EU can't play divide and rule as well.
Obviously, this would give a particularly strong indication of local strength. Local council results are useful, but it's hard to know if a result is driven by a handful of well known, strong councillors from one party or other in a locality. For the Metro Mayors, the candidates are the same across a broad area, so a relatively strong result in constituency X in the West Mids for Labour (say) and a relatively weak one in constituency Y would say quite a lot about respective prospects.
Presumably election agents etc will get a good idea at verification, but will us ordinary punters know?
He also found a 3 point swing from Tories to Labour in Tory-held seats, but as long as the national swing is greater than 3 points from that position (ie, say, Con 42, Lab 28), that's just mitigating the vote loss in second place.
It's dubious mathematically to simply overlay a straight swing from then to now (not only because the findings uncovered a very non-UNS swing in the first place, but because deeper Labour bedrock seats may well swing differently to more marginal ones), but doing so can illustrate just how bad it could get.
Essentially, and as long as the polls have the Tories leading by more than 14 points anyway (to overrule the pro-Lab swing in Tory-held seats), it could be indicative to simply add 5 to the Tory score, take 7 off the Labour score and add 5 to the Lib Dem score.
If you do, it's devastating for Labour. Remember - this is based on a lot of assumptions (that those findings hold up all the way to the election, that superimposing national swing since that time is valid, that the deeper red Labour seats still swing similarly when down to bedrock) and would give only an indication of numbers rather than specific seats), but it does illustrate the limits of just how bad it could possibly get.
(Personally, I find it hard to believe it could be that bad for Labour. But then I remember 2015 in Scotland, 1997 for the Tories, 2015 for the Lib Dems and wonder if I'm incredulous because it's genuinely improbable or just outside of my experience.
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/856828846536110080
Serious "Remain Central", is Cardiff Central (a 24 carat University seat) where Labour defend a 4900 maj in a straight fight with the Lib Dems, who must be very serious about it as they have just, as of yesterday, selected their Assembly candidate from last year to fight it.
If my mate commissioned a poll and showed it to me before the press... Or didn't share it at all... I wouldn't see that as wrong personally.
Battersea on the other hand was 75/25 Remain, and has one of the highest young population of any constituency in the country. Probably still a Tory hold, but maybe a swing away from them against the tide.
The usual stalwarts will have canvassed in 2015 for a GE
2016 for the Referendum
and now again in 2017 for the GE
For the Scots you also have to add in Referendum 2014 and Holyrood 2016
SNP will clearly have been lifted by 2014/15/16 and should be up for 2017
Cons will have been overjoyed with 2015, many although not all the same for 2016-especially as these were regarded as unexpected successes so if you were part of the GOTV team you really feel your efforts made a difference.
Lib Dems and Labour campaigners -with a few exceptions in the Labour Brexit camp- have had a very dispiriting time.
I know from from my experiences in 97/2001 that big heavy defeats saps your confidence and energy.
Are Labour in particular going to be able to mobilize sufficient numbers of supporters to GOTV??
OGH rightly emphasis's the importance of GOTV-motivating your supporters to go out and campaign for a Corbyn led Party in what looks like being a shellacking is going to be a big ask.
Not much, anyway.
Said exit poll said easy Remain, lots of people gambled heavily on Remain based on that poll.
They lost six figure sums.