Constituency - Maj Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - 19.694% Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk -18.680% West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine -7.961% Dumfries and Galloway -7.737% Moray -4.068% Perth and North Perthshire -2.937% Edinburgh South -0.663% Aberdeen South -0.499% East Renfrewshire-0.160%
Other possibles are Angus, Ochil, Banff, Edinburgh SW, Ayr.
What my modelling, as primitive as it is, is telling me is that there is a huge difference in results in Scotland once a party gets above 25%. It's a step change.
And judging by Corbyn’s slightly scratchy response to journalists’ questions about the Virgin incident the next morning, I wonder whether he should have delayed his preserving, promising himself maybe not jam tomorrow but jam this weekend
A cheesy line (not jammy, funnily enough), but I love it.
Sean you have eaten a lot of food. As have we all. It's just that you can write about it very well. You can't judge one sausage as being better than another any more accurately than anyone. But you can do it a lot more articulately.
What a lot of bollocks. If you want to ask someone to recommend a particular wine, do you go to the wine writer, who has tried thousands of bottles over the last ten years, or do you ask your mate, who knows that Lidl does this nice Chilean Merlot for a fiver.
The wine writer, out of sheer width and richness of experience, simply knows more. So you ask the writer. Unless you're an idiot.
Its because in reality he wouldn't. And the one positive (I guess it is), no matter what advice Jezza is getting when push comes to shove he can't ditch his principles on matters. He tries to use the spin doctor lines, but you know he just can't commit and ends up with some yeah, but no, but yeah, but no, invite terrorists on the rampage for a cuppa rather than send the SAS out there.
IF Corbyn won't use force, or at least won't use it without a huge amount of hand wringing, against the leader of Islamic State then when will he use it? He doesn't seem to grasp that as PM he might have mere minutes to make a decision and lives will be on the line, and not just the lives of some terrorist but the lives of British citizens.
How the hell anybody thinks Corbyn has what it takes to be PM is beyond me.
Minutes to decide, if it is the Monday after a weekend G7 conference, he will be off making jam and not taking any calls. It could be 24hrs before he even starts to think about making a decision.
Maybe his overriding philosophy is to preserve human life.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
I *About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
Jeez.
Sean you have eaten a lot of food. As have we all. It's just that you can write about it very well. You can't judge one sausage as being better than another any more accurately than anyone. But you can do it a lot more articulately.
What a lot of bollocks. If you want to ask someone to recommend a particular wine, do you go to the wine writer, who has tried thousands of bottles over the last ten years, or do you ask your mate, who knows that Lidl does this nice Chilean Merlot for a fiver.
The wine writer, out of sheer width and richness of experience, simply knows more. So you ask the writer. Unless you're an idiot.
Had lunch near your neck of the woods last weekend - The Oslo Court - St John's Wood - ever tried it? Well worth a review!
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
I *About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
Jeez.
Sean you have eaten a lot of food. As have we all. It's just that you can write about it very well. You can't judge one sausage as being better than another any more accurately than anyone. But you can do it a lot more articulately.
What a lot of bollocks. If you want to ask someone to recommend a particular wine, do you go to the wine writer, who has tried thousands of bottles over the last ten years, or do you ask your mate, who knows that Lidl does this nice Chilean Merlot for a fiver.
The wine writer, out of sheer width and richness of experience, simply knows more. So you ask the writer. Unless you're an idiot.
Had lunch near your neck of the woods last weekend - The Oslo Court - St John's Wood - ever tried it? Well worth a review!
That is a unique experience. One of a kind. Something to be tried once.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David kere is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
I'm gonna stick my neck out and say I'm a travel writer, it's my job to try restaurants (of all kinds) and in the last few years I've been to Corsica, Paris (several times), the Dordogne, the Basque Country, the Pyrenees, Brittany, Normandy, Picardy, Lyon, the Beaujolais, Burgundy, the Rhone Valley, the Jura, Lozere, Provence (several times), Marseilles, Languedoc, the Cevennes, the Riviera*, and I've tried the food in all these places and I can compare them to the food in all the other countries I've visited (maybe forty in the last ten years) and I know what I'm talking about and Southam doesn't and French food is in relative decline, sometimes absolute decline.
There. Sorted.
*About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
Jeez.
Sean you have eaten a lot of food. As have we all. It's just that you can write about it very well. You can't judge one sausage as being better than another any more accurately than anyone. But you can do it a lot more articulately.
What a lot of bollocks. If you want to ask someone to recommend a particular wine, do you go to the wine writer, who has tried thousands of bottles over the last ten years, or do you ask your mate, who knows that Lidl does this nice Chilean Merlot for a fiver.
The wine writer, out of sheer width and richness of experience, simply knows more. So you ask the writer. Unless you're an idiot.
It's all a matter of taste. Your mate may prefer a Petrus '61 while you would rather stick to a bottle of Jacob's Creek. I don't get on with fine burgundies so you can keep your DRCs. Others are of course happy to stump up thousands for them.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
I *About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
Jeez.
Sean you have eaten a lot of food. As have we all. It's just that you can write about it very well. You can't judge one sausage as being better than another any more accurately than anyone. But you can do it a lot more articulately.
What a lot of bollocks. If you want to ask someone to recommend a particular wine, do you go to the wine writer, who has tried thousands of bottles over the last ten years, or do you ask your mate, who knows that Lidl does this nice Chilean Merlot for a fiver.
The wine writer, out of sheer width and richness of experience, simply knows more. So you ask the writer. Unless you're an idiot.
Had lunch near your neck of the woods last weekend - The Oslo Court - St John's Wood - ever tried it? Well worth a review!
That is a unique experience. One of a kind. Something to be tried once.
I've taken people who've not quite got it (foodies, typically) and others who are now devoted fans - met someone who travelled from Newcastle for lunch.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
I'm gonna stick my neck out and say I'm a travel writer, it's my job to try restaurants (of all kinds) and in the last few years I've been to Corsica, Paris (several times), the Dordogne, the Basque Country, the Pyrenees, Brittany, Normandy, Picardy, Lyon, the Beaujolais, Burgundy, the Rhone Valley, the Jura, Lozere, Provence (several times), Marseilles, Languedoc, the Cevennes, the Riviera*, and I've tried the food in all these places and I can compare them to the food in all the other countries I've visited (maybe forty in the last ten years) and I know what I'm talking about and Southam doesn't and French food is in relative decline, sometimes absolute decline.
There. Sorted.
*About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
Jeez.
Sean you have eaten a lot of food. As have we all. It's just that you can write about it very well. You can't judge one sausage as being better than another any more accurately than anyone. But you can do it a lot more articulately.
What a lot of bollocks. If you want to ask someone to recommend a particular wine, do you go to the wine writer, who has tried thousands of bottles over the last ten years, or do you ask your mate, who knows that Lidl does this nice Chilean Merlot for a fiver.
The wine writer, out of sheer width and richness of experience, simply knows more. So you ask the writer. Unless you're an idiot.
But the average person is perhaps more likely to have a closer taste in wine to his mate than to some wine writer ** and so would get more enjoyment, not to mention value, out of the £5 Chilean Merlot than whatever the wine writer recommends.
** Especially if its one of those charlatan wine writers who can't tell red from white:
Baxter gives 11 Scottish Tory seats by the way - that's based on the two recent surveys from Panelbase and Survation. No tactical voting assumed - that could be more substantial and rather more effective this time, perhaps.
Off-topic, late and may already have been answered - but here are Baxter's projected LD seat changes:
Net +2 from 2015 (8->10) 4 gains: 3 from Lab (Bermondsey, Burnley, Cambridge), 1 from SNP (Dunbartonshire East) 2 losses to Con (Carshalton, Southport)
Richmond Park they have being re-taken by Con with 63% of the vote, but no doubt the by-election is ignored in this analysis.
Seems that quite a simplistic mathematical model based on UNS is being used here. The notion that the Lib Dems could win the first three Labour seats and the first SNP seat on their target list, arranged in order of swing, yet take none at all from, and lose the two most marginal to, the Tories is evidently the result of such a thing.
I don't have particularly high expectations of the Lib Dems, but I'll be astonished if their final result looks like this.
Gains from Labour are bound to be alot simpler than gains from the Conservatives though. Even when you add in Leave/Remain factors.
Labour is going backwards, the Tories forwards.
Ultra-leave Twickenham will be won back but Conservative seats in the Southwest are going to be very tough to get back for us.
Any sign of constituency markets for the following seats? None up on BF as far as I can see.
North West Durham Worsley and Eccles South Hemsworth
I am rather tempted by the Tories at 6-1 in Blyth Valley. Probably a loser but could be worth a punt - there's a huge UKIP vote to be be squeezed, a potential Lib Dem bounce to split the opposition and we are in Leaver territory.
North West Durham and Worsley&Eccles are very possible Tory gains if the lead really is 20%. Hemsworth probably not.
Not Blyth Valley. Have seen the returns from Council canvassing. There is a squeeze of the UKIP vote, but much of it would see hell freeze over than vote Tory. By contrast Worsley + Eccles, where I worked for a fair while is more well-to-do than many might imagine.
I've actually thought about this quite hard. A couple of years ago I wondered if my mediocre French food experiences were because they were always trying to impress: taking me to the posh places, where you get that over-fussy cuisine and wearying Michelin experience. Tasting menus: ugh.
So I started demanding plebby places, and local favourites, and choosing my own, and asking around: and the experience was the same. A relative decline, and in some places absolutely bad food.
I think part of the explanation is merely relative perceptions. French food was always perceived as the best, but now many other countries have caught up. So French food no longer stands out, which can lead to disappointment.
But there is also an actual absolute problem with hidebound attitudes, an inability to innovate confidently, and labour laws making it cheaper to use a microwave than hire another sous chef. They reflect the wider malaise, perhaps.
Anyhow, I must to bed. Tomorrow: La France!
Same with the plinkity plonkity. Lots of other countries caught up and in many ways surpassed France in terms of productions. Not to say there isn't lots of very good French wine, but there are lots of other countries producing great stuff too.
Bang on. Some French wine is still amongst the very best in the world. Possibly the best.
But great great wine is now being made around the world, and often at a quarter of the cost. If you want a brilliant wine for £5 or £10 or £20, you generally don't buy French. £100 maybe. But who does that?
Right here at home, the best English sparkling wine now rivals some of the best French bubbles, and is a little cheaper.
You can't buy a brilliant wine from anywhere for £20.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
There. Sorted.
*About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
ALL of them?
Pretty much. You should see my insane itinerary. I also have to visit basically ALL the famous chateaux, vineyards, and gardens.
It's fun, but, eeek.
You are going to come back one fat bastard.
Tell me. It is an issue in my job. I don't want to end up like Jay Rayner.
They always want me to have a lavish breakfast, then a lunch at some brasserie, then a wine tasting in the arvo (with nibbles), then a succulent dinner. If I ate it all I'd look like Mr Creosote.
My policy is to starve myself before trips, skip breakfast, and puddings can fuck off. Unless it's Michelin 3 star puds.
Wouldn't it be easier to let someone else, who might actually enjoy the experience, take the trip ?
My 2 cents on Paris - I've lived there for a couple years now (although back in UK at the moment), never had a rude experience except with a couple waiters in touristy areas. If anything, they are generally very polite - you have to say Bonjour to people in lifts or in the launderette for example. But I'm from London so my definition of polite is probably skewed.
I can't speak for high class restaurants but on a general "where should we go on saturday evening?" basis, I mostly always eat well.
Biggest problem with Paris is that they don't take care of their city and it stinks of piss far too often.
Paris may well take Macron narrowly over the line in the first round popular vote but there are still results coming in from Le Pen heartlands in the industrial NorthEast and the SouthEast and Le Pen still has a narrow lead in overall number of departements won
I've actually thought about this quite hard. A couple of years ago I wondered if my mediocre French food experiences were because they were always trying to impress: taking me to the posh places, where you get that over-fussy cuisine and wearying Michelin experience. Tasting menus: ugh.
So I started demanding plebby places, and local favourites, and choosing my own, and asking around: and the experience was the same. A relative decline, and in some places absolutely bad food.
I think part of the explanation is merely relative perceptions. French food was always perceived as the best, but now many other countries have caught up. So French food no longer stands out, which can lead to disappointment.
But there is also an actual absolute problem with hidebound attitudes, an inability to innovate confidently, and labour laws making it cheaper to use a microwave than hire another sous chef. They reflect the wider malaise, perhaps.
Anyhow, I must to bed. Tomorrow: La France!
Same with the plinkity plonkity. Lots of other countries caught up and in many ways surpassed France in terms of productions. Not to say there isn't lots of very good French wine, but there are lots of other countries producing great stuff too.
Bang on. Some French wine is still amongst the very best in the world. Possibly the best.
But great great wine is now being made around the world, and often at a quarter of the cost. If you want a brilliant wine for £5 or £10 or £20, you generally don't buy French. £100 maybe. But who does that?
Right here at home, the best English sparkling wine now rivals some of the best French bubbles, and is a little cheaper.
You can't buy a brilliant wine from anywhere for £20.
Tosh. There are plenty of excellent £20 bottles of wine (before tax).
I've actually thought about this quite hard. A couple of years ago I wondered if my mediocre French food experiences were because they were always trying to impress: taking me to the posh places, where you get that over-fussy cuisine and wearying Michelin experience. Tasting menus: ugh.
So I started demanding plebby places, and local favourites, and choosing my own, and asking around: and the experience was the same. A relative decline, and in some places absolutely bad food.
I think part of the explanation is merely relative perceptions. French food was always perceived as the best, but now many other countries have caught up. So French food no longer stands out, which can lead to disappointment.
But there is also an actual absolute problem with hidebound attitudes, an inability to innovate confidently, and labour laws making it cheaper to use a microwave than hire another sous chef. They reflect the wider malaise, perhaps.
Anyhow, I must to bed. Tomorrow: La France!
Same with the plinkity plonkity. Lots of other countries caught up and in many ways surpassed France in terms of productions. Not to say there isn't lots of very good French wine, but there are lots of other countries producing great stuff too.
Bang on. Some French wine is still amongst the very best in the world. Possibly the best.
But great great wine is now being made around the world, and often at a quarter of the cost. If you want a brilliant wine for £5 or £10 or £20, you generally don't buy French. £100 maybe. But who does that?
Right here at home, the best English sparkling wine now rivals some of the best French bubbles, and is a little cheaper.
You can't buy a brilliant wine from anywhere for £20.
Tosh. There are plenty of excellent £20 bottles of wine (before tax).
Paris may well take Macron narrowly over the line in the first round popular vote but there are still results coming in from Le Pen heartlands in the industrial NorthEast and the SouthEast and Le Pen still has a narrow lead in overall number of departements won
Paris may well take Macron narrowly over the line in the first round popular vote but there are still results coming in from Le Pen heartlands in the industrial NorthEast and the SouthEast and Le Pen still has a narrow lead in overall number of departements won
Le Pen has done very well in absolute terms, her problem is one of expectations management. Not too long ago she was getting 30% of the vote in polls. Her campaign staggered a bit in the end stages but she made no real fuckups apart from perhaps the Val D'Hiv comments. Which makes the reason for decline interesting. I think Melenchon took a lot of her potential voters, he has largely risen at the same time as she declined (obvs Hamon gave the bulk of Melenchon's vote but a chunk from MLP to be sure). Likewise Fillon's minor bounce was probably at the expense of MLP rather than Macron.
Baxter gives 11 Scottish Tory seats by the way - that's based on the two recent surveys from Panelbase and Survation. No tactical voting assumed - that could be more substantial and rather more effective this time, perhaps.
There are 40 Scottish seats the Tories are never going to win and about another 5 almost in the category, so that leaves about 14 possible targets.
Paris may well take Macron narrowly over the line in the first round popular vote but there are still results coming in from Le Pen heartlands in the industrial NorthEast and the SouthEast and Le Pen still has a narrow lead in overall number of departements won
Your like CNN trying to find Clinton votes in Detroit/Miami Dade/Milwaukee.
I've actually thought about this quite hard. A couple of years ago I wondered if my mediocre French food experiences were because they were always trying to impress: taking me to the posh places, where you get that over-fussy cuisine and wearying Michelin experience. Tasting menus: ugh.
So I started demanding plebby places, and local favourites, and choosing my own, and asking around: and the experience was the same. A relative decline, and in some places absolutely bad food.
I think part of the explanation is merely relative perceptions. French food was always perceived as the best, but now many other countries have caught up. So French food no longer stands out, which can lead to disappointment.
But there is also an actual absolute problem with hidebound attitudes, an inability to innovate confidently, and labour laws making it cheaper to use a microwave than hire another sous chef. They reflect the wider malaise, perhaps.
Anyhow, I must to bed. Tomorrow: La France!
Same with the plinkity plonkity. Lots of other countries caught up and in many ways surpassed France in terms of productions. Not to say there isn't lots of very good French wine, but there are lots of other countries producing great stuff too.
Bang on. Some French wine is still amongst the very best in the world. Possibly the best.
But great great wine is now being made around the world, and often at a quarter of the cost. If you want a brilliant wine for £5 or £10 or £20, you generally don't buy French. £100 maybe. But who does that?
Right here at home, the best English sparkling wine now rivals some of the best French bubbles, and is a little cheaper.
You can't buy a brilliant wine from anywhere for £20.
Tosh. There are plenty of excellent £20 bottles of wine (before tax).
There are. But brilliant?
That's a very tough call. In my cellar i have some Mouton Rothschild, some Angelus, and a bottle of Cheval Blanc. But my favourite wine is Ridge Monte Bello.
Paris may well take Macron narrowly over the line in the first round popular vote but there are still results coming in from Le Pen heartlands in the industrial NorthEast and the SouthEast and Le Pen still has a narrow lead in overall number of departements won
Your like CNN trying to find Clinton votes in Detroit/Miami Dade/Milwaukee.
Except Le Pen has already won the Electoral College if France had the US system (ie popular vote winner irrelevant and no runoff)
I've actually thought about this quite hard. A couple of years ago I wondered if my mediocre French food experiences were because they were always trying to impress: taking me to the posh places, where you get that over-fussy cuisine and wearying Michelin experience. Tasting menus: ugh.
So I started demanding plebby places, and local favourites, and choosing my own, and asking around: and the experience was the same. A relative decline, and in some places absolutely bad food.
I think part of the explanation is merely relative perceptions. French food was always perceived as the best, but now many other countries have caught up. So French food no longer stands out, which can lead to disappointment.
But there is also an actual absolute problem with hidebound attitudes, an inability to innovate confidently, and labour laws making it cheaper to use a microwave than hire another sous chef. They reflect the wider malaise, perhaps.
Anyhow, I must to bed. Tomorrow: La France!
Same with the plinkity plonkity. Lots of other countries caught up and in many ways surpassed France in terms of productions. Not to say there isn't lots of very good French wine, but there are lots of other countries producing great stuff too.
Bang on. Some French wine is still amongst the very best in the world. Possibly the best.
But great great wine is now being made around the world, and often at a quarter of the cost. If you want a brilliant wine for £5 or £10 or £20, you generally don't buy French. £100 maybe. But who does that?
Right here at home, the best English sparkling wine now rivals some of the best French bubbles, and is a little cheaper.
You can't buy a brilliant wine from anywhere for £20.
Tosh. There are plenty of excellent £20 bottles of wine (before tax).
There are. But brilliant?
That's a very tough call. In my cellar i have some Mouton Rothschild, some Angelus, and a bottle of Cheval Blanc. But my favourite wine is Ridge Monte Bello.
There you go. All I was saying is that no expert could tell you that you have got it wrong.
Paris may well take Macron narrowly over the line in the first round popular vote but there are still results coming in from Le Pen heartlands in the industrial NorthEast and the SouthEast and Le Pen still has a narrow lead in overall number of departements won
Le Pen has done very well in absolute terms, her problem is one of expectations management. Not too long ago she was getting 30% of the vote in polls. Her campaign staggered a bit in the end stages but she made no real fuckups apart from perhaps the Val D'Hiv comments. Which makes the reason for decline interesting. I think Melenchon took a lot of her potential voters, he has largely risen at the same time as she declined (obvs Hamon gave the bulk of Melenchon's vote but a chunk from MLP to be sure). Likewise Fillon's minor bounce was probably at the expense of MLP rather than Macron.
From a year ago maybe but all but 1 final French poll had Macron ahead and 1 had it tied and presently with over 80% in Macron leads Le Pen by less than 1%
Paris may well take Macron narrowly over the line in the first round popular vote but there are still results coming in from Le Pen heartlands in the industrial NorthEast and the SouthEast and Le Pen still has a narrow lead in overall number of departements won
It's bloody close. Macron is just 12,000 votes ahead with 3% left to count.
It's 23:23 not 24: 21.
Value?
Indeed, we shall see, Macron probably gets it but not yet certain by any means
(OT) In the diving competition, there is an Italian called Maicol Verzotto. Obviously it's pronounced like the English "Michael"; is it a usual name in Italy, or an obscure peculiarism?
Paris may well take Macron narrowly over the line in the first round popular vote but there are still results coming in from Le Pen heartlands in the industrial NorthEast and the SouthEast and Le Pen still has a narrow lead in overall number of departements won
Your like CNN trying to find Clinton votes in Detroit/Miami Dade/Milwaukee.
Except Le Pen has already won the Electoral College if France had the US system (ie popular vote winner irrelevant and no runoff)
So Le Pen is president of France and Hillary is POTUS
So is it fair to say that the one liberal anti-Putin candidate is now odds on favourite for the French Presidency? About time we had some good news maybe Vlad is losing his touch. Best not to count our chickens yet given how the last couple of years have panned out though.
From the Guardian: Macron seems to be borrowing from Theresa May's electoral playbook - give me the majority so that we don't get roadblock.
Macron calls for a large governing majority so he can really set about putting his programme into action:
That’s why I want to construct a majority to govern and to transform, of new talents, in which all will have their place. I will not ask where they come from, but whether they agree with the renewal of our politics, the security of the French people, reforming society and relaunching the European project.
You are the face of this renewal. You are the face of France’s hope. My fellow citizens, there is not more than one France. There is only one, ours, the France of patriots, in a Europe that protects and that we must reform. The task is immense, but I am ready, at your sides. Vive la République, vive la France.
To all those who have accompanied me since April 2016, in founding and bringing En Marche! to life, I would like to say this: in the space of a year, we have changed the face of French political life.
I've actually thought about this quite hard. A couple of years ago I wondered if my mediocre French food experiences were because they were always trying to impress: taking me to the posh places, where you get that over-fussy cuisine and wearying Michelin experience. Tasting menus: ugh.
So I started demanding plebby places, and local favourites, and choosing my own, and asking around: and the experience was the same. A relative decline, and in some places absolutely bad food.
I think part of the explanation is merely relative perceptions. French food was always perceived as the best, but now many other countries have caught up. So French food no longer stands out, which can lead to disappointment.
But there is also an actual absolute problem with hidebound attitudes, an inability to innovate confidently, and labour laws making it cheaper to use a microwave than hire another sous chef. They reflect the wider malaise, perhaps.
Anyhow, I must to bed. Tomorrow: La France!
Same with the plinkity plonkity. Lots of other countries caught up and in many ways surpassed France in terms of productions. Not to say there isn't lots of very good French wine, but there are lots of other countries producing great stuff too.
Bang on. Some French wine is still amongst the very best in the world. Possibly the best.
But great great wine is now being made around the world, and often at a quarter of the cost. If you want a brilliant wine for £5 or £10 or £20, you generally don't buy French. £100 maybe. But who does that?
Right here at home, the best English sparkling wine now rivals some of the best French bubbles, and is a little cheaper.
You can't buy a brilliant wine from anywhere for £20.
Tosh. There are plenty of excellent £20 bottles of wine (before tax).
I had a very enjoyable Corbiers with my roast beef today, while debating French politics with grandpa Fox.
I've actually thought about this quite hard. A couple of years ago I wondered if my mediocre French food experiences were because they were always trying to impress: taking me to the posh places, where you get that over-fussy cuisine and wearying Michelin experience. Tasting menus: ugh.
So I started demanding plebby places, and local favourites, and choosing my own, and asking around: and the experience was the same. A relative decline, and in some places absolutely bad food.
I think part of the explanation is merely relative perceptions. French food was always perceived as the best, but now many other countries have caught up. So French food no longer stands out, which can lead to disappointment.
But there is also an actual absolute problem with hidebound attitudes, an inability to innovate confidently, and labour laws making it cheaper to use a microwave than hire another sous chef. They reflect the wider malaise, perhaps.
Anyhow, I must to bed. Tomorrow: La France!
Same with the plinkity plonkity. Lots of other countries caught up and in many ways surpassed France in terms of productions. Not to say there isn't lots of very good French wine, but there are lots of other countries producing great stuff too.
Bang on. Some French wine is still amongst the very best in the world. Possibly the best.
But great great wine is now being made around the world, and often at a quarter of the cost. If you want a brilliant wine for £5 or £10 or £20, you generally don't buy French. £100 maybe. But who does that?
Right here at home, the best English sparkling wine now rivals some of the best French bubbles, and is a little cheaper.
You can't buy a brilliant wine from anywhere for £20.
Tosh. There are plenty of excellent £20 bottles of wine (before tax).
True. And a lot of those are French. That's a factor of market size. France produces more wines in greater variety than anywhere else. Wine is a product that doesn't really benefit from scale. Also the weather is nearly optimal.
Off-topic, late and may already have been answered - but here are Baxter's projected LD seat changes:
Net +2 from 2015 (8->10) 4 gains: 3 from Lab (Bermondsey, Burnley, Cambridge), 1 from SNP (Dunbartonshire East) 2 losses to Con (Carshalton, Southport)
Richmond Park they have being re-taken by Con with 63% of the vote, but no doubt the by-election is ignored in this analysis.
Seems that quite a simplistic mathematical model based on UNS is being used here. The notion that the Lib Dems could win the first three Labour seats and the first SNP seat on their target list, arranged in order of swing, yet take none at all from, and lose the two most marginal to, the Tories is evidently the result of such a thing.
I don't have particularly high expectations of the Lib Dems, but I'll be astonished if their final result looks like this.
Gains from Labour are bound to be alot simpler than gains from the Conservatives though. Even when you add in Leave/Remain factors.
Labour is going backwards, the Tories forwards.
Ultra-leave Twickenham will be won back but Conservative seats in the Southwest are going to be very tough to get back for us.
I wrote a novel on this earlier today so I'll keep my remarks short. I reckon the most likely scenario, assuming that the Lib Dem campaign machine is customarily efficient, and that their vote share neither falls nor increases dramatically (neither of which I expect,) is that the party should win about 10 or 11 seats (of which two would likely be from the SNP, two or three from Labour, and the balance Tory,) and lose 2 or 3 to the Conservatives, which would put it up into the high teens. Certainly if they can get their total up to 20 they'll be doing very well.
In the South West, St Ives is clearly worth a try but I don't particularly fancy the Liberal Democrats' chances. Working back Eastwards, no other gains look to be on the cards until you arrive at Bath, which I view as a likely gain for them.
Baxter gives 11 Scottish Tory seats by the way - that's based on the two recent surveys from Panelbase and Survation. No tactical voting assumed - that could be more substantial and rather more effective this time, perhaps.
There are 40 Scottish seats the Tories are never going to win and about another 5 almost in the category, so that leaves about 14 possible targets.
You could have said the same about the SNP once upon a time, but I take your point.
Paris may well take Macron narrowly over the line in the first round popular vote but there are still results coming in from Le Pen heartlands in the industrial NorthEast and the SouthEast and Le Pen still has a narrow lead in overall number of departements won
Your like CNN trying to find Clinton votes in Detroit/Miami Dade/Milwaukee.
Except Le Pen has already won the Electoral College if France had the US system (ie popular vote winner irrelevant and no runoff)
So Le Pen is president of France and Hillary is POTUS
No, actually Hillary would be President of France and Le Pen would be POTUS if they ran in the other nation
But great great wine is now being made around the world, and often at a quarter of the cost. If you want a brilliant wine for £5 or £10 or £20, you generally don't buy French ....
This is my specialist subject, and I disagree except at the cheapest end. The best value good wines in the world currently are predominantly French, most especially from the Southern Rhone and Languedoc-Roussillon - and particularly the whites, which are a still bit of a secret. Also the Loire. They've really upped their game over the last ten years or so.
It's probably still true that the best value cheap wines (drinkable plonk) are from outside France - Australia, NZ, Chile. So, yes, for £5, you're probably right.
As for serious fine wines, France dominates, but there are some very good ones from Italy, Spain, California. But there's no price advantage over France - often they are more expensive.
And for a really special occasion you want Champagne, followed by Bordeaux or Burgundy, don't you?
I've actually thought about this quite hard. A couple of years ago I wondered if my mediocre French food experiences were because they were always trying to impress: taking me to the posh places, where you get that over-fussy cuisine and wearying Michelin experience. Tasting menus: ugh.
So I started demanding plebby places, and local favourites, and choosing my own, and asking around: and the experience was the same. A relative decline, and in some places absolutely bad food.
I think part of the explanation is merely relative perceptions. French food was always perceived as the best, but now many other countries have caught up. So French food no longer stands out, which can lead to disappointment.
But there is also an actual absolute problem with hidebound attitudes, an inability to innovate confidently, and labour laws making it cheaper to use a microwave than hire another sous chef. They reflect the wider malaise, perhaps.
Anyhow, I must to bed. Tomorrow: La France!
Same with the plinkity plonkity. Lots of other countries caught up and in many ways surpassed France in terms of productions. Not to say there isn't lots of very good French wine, but there are lots of other countries producing great stuff too.
Bang on. Some French wine is still amongst the very best in the world. Possibly the best.
But great great wine is now being made around the world, and often at a quarter of the cost. If you want a brilliant wine for £5 or £10 or £20, you generally don't buy French. £100 maybe. But who does that?
Right here at home, the best English sparkling wine now rivals some of the best French bubbles, and is a little cheaper.
You can't buy a brilliant wine from anywhere for £20.
Tosh. There are plenty of excellent £20 bottles of wine (before tax).
But great great wine is now being made around the world, and often at a quarter of the cost. If you want a brilliant ....
This is my specialist subject, and I disagree. The best value good wines in the world currently are predominantly French, most especially from the Southern Rhone and Languedoc-Roussillon - and particularly the whites, which are a still bit of a secret. Also the Loire. They've really upped their game over the last ten years or so.
It's probably still true that the best value cheap wines (drinkable plonk) are from outside France - Australia, NZ, Chile.
As for serious fine wines, France dominates, but there are some very good ones from Italy, Spain, California. But there's no price advantage over France - often they are more expensive.
And for a really special occasion you want Champagne, followed by Bordeaux or Burgundy, don't you?
Fighting between protestors and riot police in Paris at the Place de la Bastille. White anarchist types by the looks of it. What if it spreads to the banlieues?
Just wait until Mayday weekend. There will be enormous marches by both the left and the far right.
But great great wine is now being made around the world, and often at a quarter of the cost. If you want a brilliant ....
This is my specialist subject, and I disagree. The best value good wines in the world currently are predominantly French, most especially from the Southern Rhone and Languedoc-Roussillon - and particularly the whites, which are a still bit of a secret. Also the Loire. They've really upped their game over the last ten years or so.
It's probably still true that the best value cheap wines (drinkable plonk) are from outside France - Australia, NZ, Chile.
As for serious fine wines, France dominates, but there are some very good ones from Italy, Spain, California. But there's no price advantage over France - often they are more expensive.
And for a really special occasion you want Champagne, followed by Bordeaux or Burgundy, don't you?
Côtes du Rhônes Villages whites are our favourites, but they're next to impossible to find in New York. It really is a culinary and oenophilic wasteland here.
It can't be, the top two are on more than 7 million compared to below on the other one.
Then I apologise, and you are surely right.
But it is rather closer than most of the exit polls predicted?
It is but the Paris areas to come may be very heavily for Macron vs Le Pen. Not sure.
Looking at the Ministry of the Interior site, much of Paris and environs, plus all of Marseilles and Lyons have yet to declare so there's lots of scope for Macron to make more differential gains over Le Pen.
When I first got seriously interested in wine, the Southern Rhone was of little interest other than the best (red) Chateauneuf du Pape - and much Chateauneuf du Pape was distinctly poor. The whites were verging on undrinkable. Now the whole region is one of the most reliable sources of both reds and whites, especially Cairanne.
It can't be, the top two are on more than 7 million compared to below on the other one.
Then I apologise, and you are surely right.
But it is rather closer than most of the exit polls predicted?
It is but the Paris areas to come may be very heavily for Macron vs Le Pen. Not sure.
Looking at the Ministry of the Interior site, much of Paris and environs, plus all of Marseilles and Lyons have yet to declare so there's lots of scope for Macron to make more differential gains over Le Pen.
France has roughly the same population as the UK, but they've already counted more votes than the total number of ballots cast at the last British general election.
France has roughly the same population as the UK, but they've already counted more votes than the total number of ballots cast at the last British general election.
Glad we don't copy them. I want to enjoy a nice long night (and morning) of entertainment on June 8/9.
Any sign of constituency markets for the following seats? None up on BF as far as I can see.
North West Durham Worsley and Eccles South Hemsworth
I am rather tempted by the Tories at 6-1 in Blyth Valley. Probably a loser but could be worth a punt - there's a huge UKIP vote to be be squeezed, a potential Lib Dem bounce to split the opposition and we are in Leaver territory.
There are 3 "Valley" seats that look like decent stretch targets - Rother, Don & Blyth. All about the 7-9k majority range, and all whopping UKIP votes last time.
There are 3 "Valley" seats that look like decent stretch targets - Rother, Don & Blyth. All about the 7-9k majority range, and all whopping UKIP votes last time.
Do you want me to go and do a door to door opinion poll in Harthill ?
FN got just over 25% in the Departmental elections in 2015. Doesn't that mean Le Pen is performing worse? Or am I missing something?
In vote share yes. But in terms of people voting for her/her party, I don't think so. So the change from 2015 due to higher turnout amongst rest of population most likely.
France has roughly the same population as the UK, but they've already counted more votes than the total number of ballots cast at the last British general election.
Glad we don't copy them. I want to enjoy a nice long night (and morning) of entertainment on June 8/9.
She is performing very slightly worst than in the Departmental elections in 2015, when she got allot 40% in the Region. She managed to add about 3% in the second round.
France has roughly the same population as the UK, but they've already counted more votes than the total number of ballots cast at the last British general election.
Glad we don't copy them. I want to enjoy a nice long night (and morning) of entertainment on June 8/9.
Got that right. Drama needs dragging out.
I couldn't imagine anything more dreadful than knowing the result straight away, and I say that as someone who sweated three times through watching my own votes being counted on election night.
France has roughly the same population as the UK, but they've already counted more votes than the total number of ballots cast at the last British general election.
Glad we don't copy them. I want to enjoy a nice long night (and morning) of entertainment on June 8/9.
Got that right. Drama needs dragging out.
We should get results more quickly this time however, due to the lack of local elections on the same day meaning no separation of ballot papers required. Turnout will also play a part in the speed of course - on balance perhaps a bit down on 2015.
Comments
A cheesy line (not jammy, funnily enough), but I love it. I'm appalled you cannot instantly recall specific incidents of Labour Party shit going down - they've been quite rare during his leadership.
A lot of discovering of undercover Tories within and criticism of the same though.
Jeez.
Sean you have eaten a lot of food. As have we all. It's just that you can write about it very well. You can't judge one sausage as being better than another any more accurately than anyone. But you can do it a lot more articulately.
What a lot of bollocks. If you want to ask someone to recommend a particular wine, do you go to the wine writer, who has tried thousands of bottles over the last ten years, or do you ask your mate, who knows that Lidl does this nice Chilean Merlot for a fiver.
The wine writer, out of sheer width and richness of experience, simply knows more. So you ask the writer. Unless you're an idiot.
Or only have a fiver
Same with literature same with art.
This review captures the spirit:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/restaurants/8966018/Oslo-Court-London-NW8-restaurant-review.html
Oh dear.
** Especially if its one of those charlatan wine writers who can't tell red from white:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2013/jun/23/wine-tasting-junk-science-analysis
http://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2014/08/the_most_infamous_study_on_wine_tasting.html
Labour is going backwards, the Tories forwards.
Ultra-leave Twickenham will be won back but Conservative seats in the Southwest are going to be very tough to get back for us.
I can't speak for high class restaurants but on a general "where should we go on saturday evening?" basis, I mostly always eat well.
Biggest problem with Paris is that they don't take care of their city and it stinks of piss far too often.
http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html
Macron calls for a large governing majority so he can really set about putting his programme into action:
That’s why I want to construct a majority to govern and to transform, of new talents, in which all will have their place. I will not ask where they come from, but whether they agree with the renewal of our politics, the security of the French people, reforming society and relaunching the European project.
You are the face of this renewal. You are the face of France’s hope. My fellow citizens, there is not more than one France. There is only one, ours, the France of patriots, in a Europe that protects and that we must reform. The task is immense, but I am ready, at your sides. Vive la République, vive la France.
To all those who have accompanied me since April 2016, in founding and bringing En Marche! to life, I would like to say this: in the space of a year, we have changed the face of French political life.
In the South West, St Ives is clearly worth a try but I don't particularly fancy the Liberal Democrats' chances. Working back Eastwards, no other gains look to be on the cards until you arrive at Bath, which I view as a likely gain for them.
Will be interesting to see where Ruth visits.
It's probably still true that the best value cheap wines (drinkable plonk) are from outside France - Australia, NZ, Chile. So, yes, for £5, you're probably right.
As for serious fine wines, France dominates, but there are some very good ones from Italy, Spain, California. But there's no price advantage over France - often they are more expensive.
And for a really special occasion you want Champagne, followed by Bordeaux or Burgundy, don't you?
So you might think its a 'truly magnificent wine' but most people don't.
Its all a matter of personal taste and having an overly refined palette means you give reviews which don't match those of the average person.
Yes: 43% (+2)
No: 45% (+1)
(via BMG)
Chgs. w/ Feb
Le Pen 34%
Melenchon 19%
Macron 18%
Fillon 14%
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/pas-de-calais/?
Just wait until Mayday weekend. There will be enormous marches by both the left and the far right.
Now flying first and business class and what the business lounges are like around the world, well that's a total different matter.
Cynon Valley will prevent a "Valley sweep"
https://twitter.com/mr_matth/status/856272428565135360
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?&p=compare
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_departmental_elections,_2015
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/real-winner-frances-presidential-election-francois-hollande/