If Le Pen ends up with 21.5%, is it significantly different from what her father scored in the first round ? For all the media management, the votes have not changed much.
Once a racist, always a racist.
She's not her father and in any case a person can improve. Not that I'm saying she isn't racist.
One big difference with 2002 is that there's no mainstream right candidate to vote for in R2. The polls are saying she will more than double her father's score. I still think she will win.
Has anyone else noticed that R2 will be contested by two candidates who both have surnames to do with writing? (In Le Pen's case you have to read it as if it were in English rather than Breton or Cornish.)
Whatever the rest of the result is, I'm still staggered that the candidate from the same party as the incumbent president is getting less than 6% of the vote.
Indeed. Look on Labour and quiver.
The arse really could fall out of the Labour vote.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
Whatever the rest of the result is, I'm still staggered that the candidate from the same party as the incumbent president is getting less than 6% of the vote.
Indeed. Look on Labour and quiver.
The arse really could fall out of the Labour vote.
If Le Pen ends up with 21.5%, is it significantly different from what her father scored in the first round ? For all the media management, the votes have not changed much.
Once a racist, always a racist.
She's not her father and in any case a person can improve. Not that I'm saying she isn't racist.
One big difference with 2002 is that there's no mainstream right candidate to vote for in R2. The polls are saying she will more than double her father's score. I still think she will win.
Has anyone else noticed that R2 will be contested by two candidates who both have surnames to do with writing? (In Le Pen's case you have to read it as if it were in English rather than Breton or Cornish.)
The first round polls were pretty spot on. Why should the second round be different?
Le Pen will get probably little more than 35% in the second round, possibly a lot less.
Whatever the rest of the result is, I'm still staggered that the candidate from the same party as the incumbent president is getting less than 6% of the vote.
Indeed. Look on Labour and quiver.
Hamon was a fresh face without much baggage who was presenting some interesting left-wing policy proposals. Corbyn doesn't have those advantages.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I'm utterly envious of the amount of space they have for their population, and the good weather.
Whatever the rest of the result is, I'm still staggered that the candidate from the same party as the incumbent president is getting less than 6% of the vote.
Indeed. Look on Labour and quiver.
The arse really could fall out of the Labour vote.
Whatever the rest of the result is, I'm still staggered that the candidate from the same party as the incumbent president is getting less than 6% of the vote.
Indeed. Look on Labour and quiver.
The arse really could fall out of the Labour vote.
Sky absolutely trashed Corbyn tonight on Trident. They see his inability to accept Trident and drones taking out Isis members as the constant theme that will follow him to the 8th June crowding out all else
Off-topic, late and may already have been answered - but here are Baxter's projected LD seat changes:
Net +2 from 2015 (8->10) 4 gains: 3 from Lab (Bermondsey, Burnley, Cambridge), 1 from SNP (Dunbartonshire East) 2 losses to Con (Carshalton, Southport)
Richmond Park they have being re-taken by Con with 63% of the vote, but no doubt the by-election is ignored in this analysis.
So In lieu of the tory Surge Klakon alert extravaganza Panelbase poll numbers being available I've modelled the Survation poll based on party switchers AND the results will shock you.
Even after giving the Tories all UKIP voters they only take 2 Constituencies (with health majorities of 10% DCT and BRS).
Admittedly D&G and AWK are ludicrously too close to call at 0.4% and 0.6% SNP 'majorities' but after them the SNP have 5% majorities plus (Moray would be the next seat to fall).
Critically however my model does understate the Con by 3.5 percentage points and overstate the SNP by 2 points compared tot he survey top line.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
Maybe I am lucky on the food front, but I very rarely eat anything but well in France. I am not an expert, but I like eating. Spain is my number one country for eating out, but I've had many more bad meals there than in France.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
Off-topic, late and may already have been answered - but here are Baxter's projected LD seat changes:
Net +2 from 2015 (8->10) 4 gains: 3 from Lab (Bermondsey, Burnley, Cambridge), 1 from SNP (Dunbartonshire East) 2 losses to Con (Carshalton, Southport)
Richmond Park they have being re-taken by Con with 63% of the vote, but no doubt the by-election is ignored in this analysis.
I think Cardiff Central will drop before/have a bigger majority than Burnley.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I'm utterly envious of the amount of space they have for their population, and the good weather.
I love it there. The South West is one of my favourite places on earth. Early autumn in Gascony is paradise.
Whatever the rest of the result is, I'm still staggered that the candidate from the same party as the incumbent president is getting less than 6% of the vote.
Indeed. Look on Labour and quiver.
The arse really could fall out of the Labour vote.
Sky absolutely trashed Corbyn tonight on Trident. They see his inability to accept Trident and drones taking out Isis members as the constant theme that will follow him to the 8th June crowding out all else
I think he is ill suited to equivocation - he hasn't managed yet to get Labour party policy on Trident changed, IIRC, but doesn't want to outright say he won't follow the policy so says its under review while being very clear in tone that under him it will change if he has anything to do with it. But it is just silly when the leader speaks and then 'the party' clarifies later the situation is not that which the leader says it is.
And on the ISIS bit he tied himself in knots - the overall wish to be cautious and non-interventionist is also one plenty would support, but he acknowledged the leader of ISIS 'not being around' would be a good thing for an overall settlement, his purported focus, but was incapable of even hypothetically agreeing we could make him not be around in that very specific scenario. It is a complicated issue, but that question need not be as complicated as he made it.
If Le Pen ends up with 21.5%, is it significantly different from what her father scored in the first round ? For all the media management, the votes have not changed much.
Once a racist, always a racist.
She's not her father and in any case a person can improve. Not that I'm saying she isn't racist.
One big difference with 2002 is that there's no mainstream right candidate to vote for in R2. The polls are saying she will more than double her father's score. I still think she will win.
Has anyone else noticed that R2 will be contested by two candidates who both have surnames to do with writing? (In Le Pen's case you have to read it as if it were in English rather than Breton or Cornish.)
The first round polls were pretty spot on. Why should the second round be different?
Le Pen will get probably little more than 35% in the second round, possibly a lot less.
Two weeks out the polls were on average predicting a Le Pen lead over Macron in R1 of around 0.5%, so yes, pretty accurate.
She's unlikely to do well against Macron on TV. Putin and Trump both want Le Pen, even if in Trump's case Priebus has denied it.
Macron may find he gets an awful lot of crap thrown at him. Will he bear up?
Whatever the rest of the result is, I'm still staggered that the candidate from the same party as the incumbent president is getting less than 6% of the vote.
Indeed. Look on Labour and quiver.
The arse really could fall out of the Labour vote.
Sky absolutely trashed Corbyn tonight on Trident. They see his inability to accept Trident and drones taking out Isis members as the constant theme that will follow him to the 8th June crowding out all else
I think he is ill suited to equivocation - he hasn't managed yet to get Labour party policy on Trident changed, IIRC, but doesn't want to outright say he won't follow the policy so says its under review while being very clear in tone that under him it will change if he has anything to do with it. But it is just silly when the leader speaks and then 'the party' clarifies later the situation is not that which the leader says it is.
And on the ISIS bit he tied himself in knots - the overall wish to be cautious and non-interventionist is also one plenty would support, but he acknowledged the leader of ISIS 'not being around' would be a good thing for an overall settlement, his purported focus, but was incapable of even hypothetically agreeing we could make him not be around in that very specific scenario. It is a complicated issue, but that question need not be as complicated as he made it.
I think Jezza not being around as Labour leader would be a good thing...that doesn't mean I want to drone him...
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
I have had some great times in France, I had a place in rural Normandy and I spoke enough French to get by, my wife was very fluent.
Paris is not like the rest of France.
The French people I met were generally great.
My favorite anecdote was when we holidaying on the Med. Youngest taken quite ill and the dr was great but we had to find a late opening chemist. Struggling to find it in Agde with not long to go before it closed I in desperation knocked on someones front door to ask directions.
Bless the bloke, this place was a bit out of the way and we were struggling with directions, he insisted in getting in his car and getting us to follow him there.
BTW woman on Sky has said she thinks a possibility the order might be wrong and Le Pen may inch into first place.
In my experience the French as a people have become nicer, as their influence in the world has declined (especially the language). I am pretty sure the two phenomena are linked.
Last year in Lille was my first significant time in France outside of the Dardogne for 20 years. I was stunned at the difference. Previously, no-one in the hospitality industry would have been young, spoken English, or sound educated. Everywhere I went, not only were they all three, but pleasant too.
That said, I have always found the French very nice outside of Paris. As a young 20-something traveling on my own and staying in small hotels, wherever I stayed, the owners invariably treated me as family.
The only negatives about recent developments in France for me is that the food is sadly not up to its old standards, and particular, the bread.
I was in Lille a couple of weekends ago and had the best meal of my life there. I guess it depends on where you go.
If Le Pen ends up with 21.5%, is it significantly different from what her father scored in the first round ? For all the media management, the votes have not changed much.
Once a racist, always a racist.
She's not her father and in any case a person can improve. Not that I'm saying she isn't racist.
One big difference with 2002 is that there's no mainstream right candidate to vote for in R2. The polls are saying she will more than double her father's score. I still think she will win.
Has anyone else noticed that R2 will be contested by two candidates who both have surnames to do with writing? (In Le Pen's case you have to read it as if it were in English rather than Breton or Cornish.)
The first round polls were pretty spot on. Why should the second round be different?
Le Pen will get probably little more than 35% in the second round, possibly a lot less.
Two weeks out the polls were on average predicting a Le Pen lead over Macron in R1 of around 0.5%, so yes, pretty accurate.
She's unlikely to do well against Macron on TV. Putin and Trump both want Le Pen, even if in Trump's case Priebus has denied it.
Macron may find he gets an awful lot of crap thrown at him. Will he bear up?
He has so far! Le Pen is toast, less likely than Jezza to be the winner.
If Le Pen ends up with 21.5%, is it significantly different from what her father scored in the first round ? For all the media management, the votes have not changed much.
Once a racist, always a racist.
She's not her father and in any case a person can improve. Not that I'm saying she isn't racist.
One big difference with 2002 is that there's no mainstream right candidate to vote for in R2. The polls are saying she will more than double her father's score. I still think she will win.
Has anyone else noticed that R2 will be contested by two candidates who both have surnames to do with writing? (In Le Pen's case you have to read it as if it were in English rather than Breton or Cornish.)
The first round polls were pretty spot on. Why should the second round be different?
Le Pen will get probably little more than 35% in the second round, possibly a lot less.
Two weeks out the polls were on average predicting a Le Pen lead over Macron in R1 of around 0.5%, so yes, pretty accurate.
She's unlikely to do well against Macron on TV. Putin and Trump both want Le Pen, even if in Trump's case Priebus has denied it.
Macron may find he gets an awful lot of crap thrown at him. Will he bear up?
He'd have to melt down in some truly spectacular fashion to even come close to losing, surely. Safe as houses.
Constituency - Maj Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - 19.694% Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk -18.680% West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine -7.961% Dumfries and Galloway -7.737% Moray -4.068% Perth and North Perthshire -2.937% Edinburgh South -0.663% Aberdeen South -0.499% East Renfrewshire-0.160%
Paris starting to report will take Macron ahead it seems but of the 3 non Parisian departements yet to report any results all went to Sarkozy in 2012 http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/??p=compare
Constituency - Maj Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - 19.694% Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk -18.680% West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine -7.961% Dumfries and Galloway -7.737% Moray -4.068% Perth and North Perthshire -2.937% Edinburgh South -0.663% Aberdeen South -0.499% East Renfrewshire-0.160%
Other possibles are Angus, Ochil, Banff, Edinburgh SW, Ayr.
Whatever the rest of the result is, I'm still staggered that the candidate from the same party as the incumbent president is getting less than 6% of the vote.
Indeed. Look on Labour and quiver.
The arse really could fall out of the Labour vote.
Sky absolutely trashed Corbyn tonight on Trident. They see his inability to accept Trident and drones taking out Isis members as the constant theme that will follow him to the 8th June crowding out all else
I think he is ill suited to equivocation - he hasn't managed yet to get Labour party policy on Trident changed, IIRC, but doesn't want to outright say he won't follow the policy so says its under review while being very clear in tone that under him it will change if he has anything to do with it. But it is just silly when the leader speaks and then 'the party' clarifies later the situation is not that which the leader says it is.
And on the ISIS bit he tied himself in knots - the overall wish to be cautious and non-interventionist is also one plenty would support, but he acknowledged the leader of ISIS 'not being around' would be a good thing for an overall settlement, his purported focus, but was incapable of even hypothetically agreeing we could make him not be around in that very specific scenario. It is a complicated issue, but that question need not be as complicated as he made it.
I think Jezza not being around as Labour leader would be a good thing...that doesn't mean I want to drone him...
There are a great many differences between Jezza and the leader of ISIS of course, not least in how peacefully they can 'not be around' and general monstrousness.By his own words Corbyn did not rule out a drone strike, which suggests he could, in the right circumstances, and given it was a hypothetical scenario and he'd already clarified he would view the intelligence and take a view on what needed to be achieve in ending the conflict, he could have just said 'and so in that highly specific situation, yes'.
Whatever the rest of the result is, I'm still staggered that the candidate from the same party as the incumbent president is getting less than 6% of the vote.
Indeed. Look on Labour and quiver.
The arse really could fall out of the Labour vote.
Sky absolutely trashed Corbyn tonight on Trident. They see his inability to accept Trident and drones taking out Isis members as the constant theme that will follow him to the 8th June crowding out all else
I think he is ill suited to equivocation - he hasn't managed yet to get Labour party policy on Trident changed, IIRC, but doesn't want to outright say he won't follow the policy so says its under review while being very clear in tone that under him it will change if he has anything to do with it. But it is just silly when the leader speaks and then 'the party' clarifies later the situation is not that which the leader says it is.
And on the ISIS bit he tied himself in knots - the overall wish to be cautious and non-interventionist is also one plenty would support, but he acknowledged the leader of ISIS 'not being around' would be a good thing for an overall settlement, his purported focus, but was incapable of even hypothetically agreeing we could make him not be around in that very specific scenario. It is a complicated issue, but that question need not be as complicated as he made it.
I think Jezza not being around as Labour leader would be a good thing...that doesn't mean I want to drone him...
There are a great many differences between Jezza and the leader of ISIS of course, not least in how peacefully they can 'not be around' and general monstrousness.By his own words Corbyn did not rule out a drone strike, which suggests he could, in the right circumstances, and given it was a hypothetical scenario and he'd already clarified he would view the intelligence and take a view on what needed to be achieve in ending the conflict, he could have just said 'and so in that highly specific situation, yes'.
Its because in reality he wouldn't. And the one positive (I guess it is), no matter what advice Jezza is getting when push comes to shove he can't ditch his principles on matters. He tries to use the spin doctor lines, but you know he just can't commit and ends up with some yeah, but no, but yeah, but no, invite terrorists on the rampage for a cuppa rather than send the SAS out there.
Constituency - Maj Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - 19.694% Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk -18.680% West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine -7.961% Dumfries and Galloway -7.737% Moray -4.068% Perth and North Perthshire -2.937% Edinburgh South -0.663% Aberdeen South -0.499% East Renfrewshire-0.160%
Other possibles are Angus, Ochil, Banff, Edinburgh SW, Ayr.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
I'm gonna stick my neck out and say I'm a travel writer, it's my job to try restaurants (of all kinds) and in the last few years I've been to Corsica, Paris (several times), the Dordogne, the Basque Country, the Pyrenees, Brittany, Normandy, Picardy, Lyon, the Beaujolais, Burgundy, the Rhone Valley, the Jura, Lozere, Provence (several times), Marseilles, Languedoc, the Cevennes, the Riviera*, and I've tried the food in all these places and I can compare them to the food in all the other countries I've visited (maybe forty in the last ten years) and I know what I'm talking about and Southam doesn't and French food is in relative decline, sometimes absolute decline.
There. Sorted.
*About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
Paris starting to report will take Macron ahead it seems but of the 3 non Parisian departements yet to report any results all went to Sarkozy in 2012 http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/??p=compare
Is that relevant? She's come first in plenty of departements won by Hollande last time.
Paris starting to report will take Macron ahead it seems but of the 3 non Parisian departements yet to report any results all went to Sarkozy in 2012 http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/??p=compare
Are any bits of the Paris suburbs like Romford or Bexley?
Bloomberg have a journalist inside the Interior Ministry who is tweeting live figures, which well ahead of the updates on the official website, but exactly the same as those when the website figures eventually emerge. (@GeraldineAmiel who gets her figures from @FabioWire)
Has it: From 41.01m voters (85.43%): Macron 23.61%, Le Pen 22.20%, Fillon 19.87%, Melenchon 19.07%
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
I'm gonna stick my neck out and say I'm a travel writer, it's my job to try restaurants (of all kinds) and in the last few years I've been to Corsica, Paris (several times), the Dordogne, the Basque Country, the Pyrenees, Brittany, Normandy, Picardy, Lyon, the Beaujolais, Burgundy, the Rhone Valley, the Jura, Lozere, Provence (several times), Marseilles, Languedoc, the Cevennes, the Riviera*, and I've tried the food in all these places and I can compare them to the food in all the other countries I've visited (maybe forty in the last ten years) and I know what I'm talking about and Southam doesn't and French food is in relative decline, sometimes absolute decline.
There. Sorted.
*About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
No doubt you know much more than me. I have eaten out in France maybe 30 times in the last few years - usually taken by locals for business or after careful thought on holiday. Maybe on that basis I'm bound to do OK.
Whatever the rest of the result is, I'm still staggered that the candidate from the same party as the incumbent president is getting less than 6% of the vote.
Indeed. Look on Labour and quiver.
The arse really could fall out of the Labour vote.
Sky absolutely trashed Corbyn tonight on Trident. They see his inability to accept Trident and drones taking out Isis members as the constant theme that will follow him to the 8th June crowding out all else
I think he is ill suited to equivocation - he hasn't managed yet to get Labour party policy on Trident changed, IIRC, but doesn't want to outright say he won't follow the policy so says its under review while being very clear in tone that under him it will change if he has anything to do with it. But it is just silly when the leader speaks and then 'the party' clarifies later the situation is not that which the leader says it is.
And on the ISIS bit he tied himself in knots - the overall wish to be cautious and non-interventionist is also one plenty would support, but he acknowledged the leader of ISIS 'not being around' would be a good thing for an overall settlement, his purported focus, but was incapable of even hypothetically agreeing we could make him not be around in that very specific scenario. It is a complicated issue, but that question need not be as complicated as he made it.
I think Jezza not being around as Labour leader would be a good thing...that doesn't mean I want to drone him...
There are a great many differences between Jezza and the leader of ISIS of course, not least in how peacefully they can 'not be around' and general monstrousness.By his own words Corbyn did not rule out a drone strike, which suggests he could, in the right circumstances, and given it was a hypothetical scenario and he'd already clarified he would view the intelligence and take a view on what needed to be achieve in ending the conflict, he could have just said 'and so in that highly specific situation, yes'.
Its because in reality he wouldn't.
And that's the problem - he said a lot of the right words in his spiel, but it was muddled and confused and the lack of definiteness makes it easy to paint as him saying he wouldn't. Same problem as Farron and the sinful homosexuality reports
Any sign of constituency markets for the following seats? None up on BF as far as I can see.
North West Durham Worsley and Eccles South Hemsworth
I am rather tempted by the Tories at 6-1 in Blyth Valley. Probably a loser but could be worth a punt - there's a huge UKIP vote to be be squeezed, a potential Lib Dem bounce to split the opposition and we are in Leaver territory.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
As I have pointed out many times, it isn't the palate, it's the pen that is important.
Sean has plenty of experience eating food. As have we all. No difference there, but he can write about it very well. Is the difference.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
I'm gonna stick my neck out and say I'm a travel writer, it's my job to try restaurants (of all kinds) and in the last few years I've been to Corsica, Paris (several times), the Dordogne, the Basque Country, the Pyrenees, Brittany, Normandy, Picardy, Lyon, the Beaujolais, Burgundy, the Rhone Valley, the Jura, Lozere, Provence (several times), Marseilles, Languedoc, the Cevennes, the Riviera*, and I've tried the food in all these places and I can compare them to the food in all the other countries I've visited (maybe forty in the last ten years) and I know what I'm talking about and Southam doesn't and French food is in relative decline, sometimes absolute decline.
There. Sorted.
*About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
ALL of them?
Pretty much. You should see my insane itinerary. I also have to visit basically ALL the famous chateaux, vineyards, and gardens.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
I'm gonna stick my neck out and say I'm a travel writer, it's my job to try restaurants (of all kinds) and in the last few years I've been to Corsica, Paris (several times), the Dordogne, the Basque Country, the Pyrenees, Brittany, Normandy, Picardy, Lyon, the Beaujolais, Burgundy, the Rhone Valley, the Jura, Lozere, Provence (several times), Marseilles, Languedoc, the Cevennes, the Riviera*, and I've tried the food in all these places and I can compare them to the food in all the other countries I've visited (maybe forty in the last ten years) and I know what I'm talking about and Southam doesn't and French food is in relative decline, sometimes absolute decline.
There. Sorted.
*About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
ALL of them?
Pretty much. You should see my insane itinerary. I also have to visit basically ALL the famous chateaux, vineyards, and gardens.
It's fun, but, eeek.
Well in that case, allow me to offer my sincerest contrafibularities.
Paris starting to report will take Macron ahead it seems but of the 3 non Parisian departements yet to report any results all went to Sarkozy in 2012 http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/??p=compare
Are any bits of the Paris suburbs like Romford or Bexley?
The outer suburbs gave Le Pen about the same as her national score last time and only 1/4 of those now in, central Paris which is starting to come in too will go heavily Macron and badly for Le Pen
Any sign of constituency markets for the following seats? None up on BF as far as I can see.
North West Durham Worsley and Eccles South Hemsworth
I am rather tempted by the Tories at 6-1 in Blyth Valley. Probably a loser but could be worth a punt - there's a huge UKIP vote to be be squeezed, a potential Lib Dem bounce to split the opposition and we are in Leaver territory.
North West Durham and Worsley&Eccles are very possible Tory gains if the lead really is 20%. Hemsworth probably not.
Paris starting to report will take Macron ahead it seems but of the 3 non Parisian departements yet to report any results all went to Sarkozy in 2012 http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/??p=compare
Is that relevant? She's come first in plenty of departements won by Hollande last time.
Yes but the departements she has won more of have been Sarkozy departements
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
I'm gonna stick my neck out and say I'm a travel writer, it's my job to try restaurants (of all kinds) and in the last few years I've been to Corsica, Paris (several times), the Dordogne, the Basque Country, the Pyrenees, Brittany, Normandy, Picardy, Lyon, the Beaujolais, Burgundy, the Rhone Valley, the Jura, Lozere, Provence (several times), Marseilles, Languedoc, the Cevennes, the Riviera*, and I've tried the food in all these places and I can compare them to the food in all the other countries I've visited (maybe forty in the last ten years) and I know what I'm talking about and Southam doesn't and French food is in relative decline, sometimes absolute decline.
There. Sorted.
*About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
ALL of them?
Pretty much. You should see my insane itinerary. I also have to visit basically ALL the famous chateaux, vineyards, and gardens.
It's fun, but, eeek.
You are going to come back one fat bastard.
Have you seen the portion sizes at those posh restaurants? He'll be emaciated!
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
I'm gonna stick my neck out and say I'm a travel writer, it's my job to try restaurants (of all kinds) and in the last few years I've been to Corsica, Paris (several times), the Dordogne, the Basque Country, the Pyrenees, Brittany, Normandy, Picardy, Lyon, the Beaujolais, Burgundy, the Rhone Valley, the Jura, Lozere, Provence (several times), Marseilles, Languedoc, the Cevennes, the Riviera*, and I've tried the food in all these places and I can compare them to the food in all the other countries I've visited (maybe forty in the last ten years) and I know what I'm talking about and Southam doesn't and French food is in relative decline, sometimes absolute decline.
There. Sorted.
*About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
Jeez.
Sean you have eaten a lot of food. As have we all. It's just that you can write about it very well. You can't judge one sausage as being better than another any more accurately than anyone. But you can do it a lot more articulately.
Its because in reality he wouldn't. And the one positive (I guess it is), no matter what advice Jezza is getting when push comes to shove he can't ditch his principles on matters. He tries to use the spin doctor lines, but you know he just can't commit and ends up with some yeah, but no, but yeah, but no, invite terrorists on the rampage for a cuppa rather than send the SAS out there.
IF Corbyn won't use force, or at least won't use it without a huge amount of hand wringing, against the leader of Islamic State then when will he use it? He doesn't seem to grasp that as PM he might have mere minutes to make a decision and lives will be on the line, and not just the lives of some terrorist but the lives of British citizens.
How the hell anybody thinks Corbyn has what it takes to be PM is beyond me.
Constituency - Maj Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - 19.694% Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk -18.680% West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine -7.961% Dumfries and Galloway -7.737% Moray -4.068% Perth and North Perthshire -2.937% Edinburgh South -0.663% Aberdeen South -0.499% East Renfrewshire-0.160%
Other possibles are Angus, Ochil, Banff, Edinburgh SW, Ayr.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
I'm gonna stick my neck out and say I'm a travel writer, it's my job to try restaurants (of all kinds) and in the last few years I've been to Corsica, Paris (several times), the Dordogne, the Basque Country, the Pyrenees, Brittany, Normandy, Picardy, Lyon, the Beaujolais, Burgundy, the Rhone Valley, the Jura, Lozere, Provence (several times), Marseilles, Languedoc, the Cevennes, the Riviera*, and I've tried the food in all these places and I can compare them to the food in all the other countries I've visited (maybe forty in the last ten years) and I know what I'm talking about and Southam doesn't and French food is in relative decline, sometimes absolute decline.
There. Sorted.
*About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
Well you may know what you're talking about more than Southam but its Southam who's having the good dining eating experiences while you're having crap ones.
So its Southam who's coming out on top I'd say - though you getting paid to eat while Southam is paying to eat rather changes the score on the experience.
Aaron Banks probably has the right attitude when you only said you'd stand in a constituency because you hated the guy who held it, and are now saying you are seeking the nomination despite knowing nothing about the place and only have been there once - act like it's no different than anyone other politician and that why should anyone care that he knows nothing about the place. Might as well go ballsy with it when you are not even pretending to care about a place.
Its because in reality he wouldn't. And the one positive (I guess it is), no matter what advice Jezza is getting when push comes to shove he can't ditch his principles on matters. He tries to use the spin doctor lines, but you know he just can't commit and ends up with some yeah, but no, but yeah, but no, invite terrorists on the rampage for a cuppa rather than send the SAS out there.
IF Corbyn won't use force, or at least won't use it without a huge amount of hand wringing, against the leader of Islamic State then when will he use it? He doesn't seem to grasp that as PM he might have mere minutes to make a decision and lives will be on the line, and not just the lives of some terrorist but the lives of British citizens.
How the hell anybody thinks Corbyn has what it takes to be PM is beyond me.
Minutes to decide, if it is the Monday after a weekend G7 conference, he will be off making jam and not taking any calls. It could be 24hrs before he even starts to think about making a decision.
I was in Paris last week. Uniformly friendly service, no problems at all. Food, too, very good. It's the same every time I go there and to Normandy and the South West, the other places I tend to visit. Maybe the trick is not to search for fine dining experiences. As Elizabeth David knew, provincial cooking is where it's at.
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
I go to France all the time, and eat in all kind of places, from bistros to 3 star Michelin: it's my job. I wish my experiences were as good as yours.
The food is sadly declined. The people are much friendlier than they used to be. Hey ho.
I agree it is still a nation of enormous potential, I fear Macron is not the person to unlock it. We shall see.
We need the PB restaurant reviewers to have the same food from the same place and then give their thoughts.
I'm gonna stick my neck out and say I'm a travel writer, it's my job to try restaurants (of all kinds) and in the last few years I've been to Corsica, Paris (several times), the Dordogne, the Basque Country, the Pyrenees, Brittany, Normandy, Picardy, Lyon, the Beaujolais, Burgundy, the Rhone Valley, the Jura, Lozere, Provence (several times), Marseilles, Languedoc, the Cevennes, the Riviera*, and I've tried the food in all these places and I can compare them to the food in all the other countries I've visited (maybe forty in the last ten years) and I know what I'm talking about and Southam doesn't and French food is in relative decline, sometimes absolute decline.
There. Sorted.
*About the only French region I haven't visited is the Loire. As it happens I'm going there tomorrow. To try all the restaurants. Maybe it will buck the trend. I will report back.
ALL of them?
Pretty much. You should see my insane itinerary. I also have to visit basically ALL the famous chateaux, vineyards, and gardens.
It's fun, but, eeek.
Well in that case, allow me to offer my sincerest contrafibularities.
Off-topic, late and may already have been answered - but here are Baxter's projected LD seat changes:
Net +2 from 2015 (8->10) 4 gains: 3 from Lab (Bermondsey, Burnley, Cambridge), 1 from SNP (Dunbartonshire East) 2 losses to Con (Carshalton, Southport)
Richmond Park they have being re-taken by Con with 63% of the vote, but no doubt the by-election is ignored in this analysis.
Seems that quite a simplistic mathematical model based on UNS is being used here. The notion that the Lib Dems could win the first three Labour seats and the first SNP seat on their target list, arranged in order of swing, yet take none at all from, and lose the two most marginal to, the Tories is evidently the result of such a thing.
I don't have particularly high expectations of the Lib Dems, but I'll be astonished if their final result looks like this.
I've actually thought about this quite hard. A couple of years ago I wondered if my mediocre French food experiences were because they were always trying to impress: taking me to the posh places, where you get that over-fussy cuisine and wearying Michelin experience. Tasting menus: ugh.
So I started demanding plebby places, and local favourites, and choosing my own, and asking around: and the experience was the same. A relative decline, and in some places absolutely bad food.
I think part of the explanation is merely relative perceptions. French food was always perceived as the best, but now many other countries have caught up. So French food no longer stands out, which can lead to disappointment.
But there is also an actual absolute problem with hidebound attitudes, an inability to innovate confidently, and labour laws making it cheaper to use a microwave than hire another sous chef. They reflect the wider malaise, perhaps.
Anyhow, I must to bed. Tomorrow: La France!
Same with the plinkity plonkity. Lots of other countries caught up and in many ways surpassed France in terms of productions. Not to say there isn't lots of very good French wine, but there are lots of other countries producing great stuff too.
Does Corbyn actually like making jam, or is that just a meme that has arisen due to his other hobbies?
There was a real occurrence when he was required to make a statement (I think it was some Labour Party shit going down*)...and the media was told no he won't make a statement today, he worked the Sunday morning tv programmes and is not taking calls as he is making jam.
Minutes to decide, if it is the Monday after a weekend G7 conference, he will be off making jam and not taking any calls. It could be 24hrs before he even starts to think about making a decision.
Being PM is a fast paced job with long hours, you have to make dozens of decisions a day, and they have serious consequences in many cases. Does any of that sound like a good fit for Jeremy Corbyn?
If Labour get hammered they will deserve every bit of it.
Off-topic, late and may already have been answered - but here are Baxter's projected LD seat changes:
Net +2 from 2015 (8->10) 4 gains: 3 from Lab (Bermondsey, Burnley, Cambridge), 1 from SNP (Dunbartonshire East) 2 losses to Con (Carshalton, Southport)
Richmond Park they have being re-taken by Con with 63% of the vote, but no doubt the by-election is ignored in this analysis.
Seems that quite a simplistic mathematical model based on UNS is being used here. The notion that the Lib Dems could win the first three Labour seats and the first SNP seat on their target list, arranged in order of swing, yet take none at all from, and lose the two most marginal to, the Tories is evidently the result of such a thing.
I don't have particularly high expectations of the Lib Dems, but I'll be astonished if their final result looks like this.
Yes it's UNS but with Scotland polling added in I believe. You can add an element of tactical voting manually.
Comments
One big difference with 2002 is that there's no mainstream right candidate to vote for in R2. The polls are saying she will more than double her father's score. I still think she will win.
Has anyone else noticed that R2 will be contested by two candidates who both have surnames to do with writing? (In Le Pen's case you have to read it as if it were in English rather than Breton or Cornish.)
The French people I meet work-wise are among the smartest, most dynamic there are. Macron reminds me of them in many ways. France has a shedload of problems, but it also has a lot of positive attributes and a deep well of talent. It will take a lit of work and more compromise than the French are used to, but there is the possibility of a big French future IMO.
Le Pen will get probably little more than 35% in the second round, possibly a lot less.
The narrative may yet change though.
http://www.politiquemania.com/forum/election-presidentielle-2017-f45/premier-tour-election-presidentielle-t5603-130.html
http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html
Off-topic, late and may already have been answered - but here are Baxter's projected LD seat changes:
Net +2 from 2015 (8->10)
4 gains: 3 from Lab (Bermondsey, Burnley, Cambridge), 1 from SNP (Dunbartonshire East)
2 losses to Con (Carshalton, Southport)
Richmond Park they have being re-taken by Con with 63% of the vote, but no doubt the by-election is ignored in this analysis.
It doesn't show a lot of confidence in our decision.
the model is straight uniform vote redistribution from page 7 of the tables - no clever attmepts at modelling tactical voting or anything like that: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Sunday-Post-Tables-Final-1d4f6h-180417APCH.pdf
Even after giving the Tories all UKIP voters they only take 2 Constituencies (with health majorities of 10% DCT and BRS).
Admittedly D&G and AWK are ludicrously too close to call at 0.4% and 0.6% SNP 'majorities' but after them the SNP have 5% majorities plus (Moray would be the next seat to fall).
Critically however my model does understate the Con by 3.5 percentage points and overstate the SNP by 2 points compared tot he survey top line.
100/1 on Betfair
And on the ISIS bit he tied himself in knots - the overall wish to be cautious and non-interventionist is also one plenty would support, but he acknowledged the leader of ISIS 'not being around' would be a good thing for an overall settlement, his purported focus, but was incapable of even hypothetically agreeing we could make him not be around in that very specific scenario. It is a complicated issue, but that question need not be as complicated as he made it.
She's unlikely to do well against Macron on TV. Putin and Trump both want Le Pen, even if in Trump's case Priebus has denied it.
Macron may find he gets an awful lot of crap thrown at him. Will he bear up?
Correction: leads by 10k. Crossover!
Macron 1/50 from 1/100
It's the traditional Conservative approach of sharing our success with others.
Le Pen 23.07
76% sees CCCRRRROOOSSSOOOVVVEEEERRRR
Massive lead and much smugness, slowly being swallowed up by rural region after rural region. Squeaky bum time.
Constituency - Maj
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - 19.694%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk -18.680%
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine -7.961%
Dumfries and Galloway -7.737%
Moray -4.068%
Perth and North Perthshire -2.937%
Edinburgh South -0.663%
Aberdeen South -0.499%
East Renfrewshire-0.160%
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/??p=compare
Marvellous bet from about 2 hours ago
Has it: From 41.01m voters (85.43%): Macron 23.61%, Le Pen 22.20%, Fillon 19.87%, Melenchon 19.07%
North West Durham
Worsley and Eccles South
Hemsworth
I am rather tempted by the Tories at 6-1 in Blyth Valley. Probably a loser but could be worth a punt - there's a huge UKIP vote to be be squeezed, a potential Lib Dem bounce to split the opposition and we are in Leaver territory.
Sean has plenty of experience eating food. As have we all. No difference there, but he can write about it very well. Is the difference.
Sean you have eaten a lot of food. As have we all. It's just that you can write about it very well. You can't judge one sausage as being better than another any more accurately than anyone. But you can do it a lot more articulately.
How the hell anybody thinks Corbyn has what it takes to be PM is beyond me.
So its Southam who's coming out on top I'd say - though you getting paid to eat while Southam is paying to eat rather changes the score on the experience.
I don't have particularly high expectations of the Lib Dems, but I'll be astonished if their final result looks like this.
He may hate doing it, of course
* It was train-gate.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-traingate-labour-leader-jam-a7211486.html
If Labour get hammered they will deserve every bit of it.
Note: no idea if he actually does make jam.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
https://spectatorblogs.imgix.net/wp-content/blogs.dir/11/files/2016/09/jam.png