If voting matches the opinion polls Labour is likely to lose a similar number this year.
Yes, I agree with that.
Lab losses of around 50 in England, as suggested by Rallings and Thrasher, seem reasonable to me given the nature of the seats being contested and the 2013 baseline. However Wales and Scotland should multiply that several times over.
We don't get much Wales-only polling and I think the most recent is the ITV/YouGov poll from back in January:
Is that still representative? I can't think of any great reason, either Welsh or British, why it should have dramatically changed. The figures are for Cardiff and Westminster, not local elections where independents should poll far more strongly, but the top-line figure should still worry Labour deeply. In 2012, they had a lead over both Plaid and Con of just over 20%; even in 2008, they were nearly 10% clear of Plaid and 11% ahead of Con. If the 5-6% leads for Westminster and the Senedd hold good for the local elections, Lab could see their entire 2012 gains reversed and more. In context, to keep it to 200 would be good going.
Scotland could be even worse. Labour won 394 seats in 2012, off 31% of the vote. Again, I don't think there's been any specific polling for the Scottish locals but SLab's now polling around the low-to-mid-teens for Holyrood and Westminster, which could easily translate to the loss of 60-70% of their councillors if reproduced in a month, or at least 240 losses.
Add that up and Labour could be down 500 on the night overall.
I don't know which is worse, Theresa May/the right trying to dictate Cadbury's marketing policy or the hysterical reaction in some quarters (the left) to the David Moyes incident.
Moyes sounded like a creepy prick. Why anyone should be surprised that football is full of creepy pricks is...surprising.
If voting matches the opinion polls Labour is likely to lose a similar number this year.
2013 was an unwind from the 2009 local elections though, 2009 elections took place with the background of a resurgent Tory party on the verge of government following a haphazard and incompetent looking labour prime minister.
Is it that bad for labour?
Comparing the opinion polls now to their equivalents in 2009
2009 ICM Con 44 Lab 31 YouGov Con 41 Lab 31 ComRes Con 41 Lab 30 Mori Con 42 Lab 32
2017 ICM Con 43 Lab 25 YouGov Con 43 Lab 25 ComRes Con 42 Lab 25 Mori Con 43 Lab 30
The average Conservative lead is 6% higher now than it was at the equivalent point before the 2009 local elections.
Labour on 25% with far too many pollsters; is there a psychological low point at which traditional Labour voters simply won’t bother to turn out and vote?
Don't know if it has been mentioned in the UK, but David Davis apparently had a friendly and constructive dinner in Madrid on Sunday with the Spanish foreign minister.
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
"...is good" is a stark and unrealistic value judgement, Yes, patriotism has its good side, and was pretty important in the days when older men needed to persuade younger men to offer up their lives in the national interest. But it would be blinkered not to see the potential downside of patriotism, as the last resort of the scoundrel.
Brexit never would have got near a majority if people had thought it would mean a smaller economy, esta-visas to travel abroad, more expensive flights and travel insurance, potentially even the break-up of the UK, just to get a blue passport, a pint, and being able to buy food weighed in ounces.
If however, the choice is Brexit, plus income per head being 20% higher in 2030 than today, vs no Brexit plus income per head being 25% higher, Brexit wins because people choose politics over economics.
That's right.
But, I agree with Mervyn King. Brexit is irrelevant to our national prosperity in the long-term.
Yup. Not only was it a balls argument to begin with, going hard on the economy didn't wrk.
This is why the metropolitan Anywheres are now trying to play catch up and paint Brexit as the nasty choice. In short Brexit is neither lovely nor nasty, neither enriching or impoverishing. It is simply the democratic choice of our people. And as such should be respected.
From the safe distance of a couple of thousand kilometres away, I had assumed that stuff like Simon Heffer's "let's restore the Imperial system of measurement" was an April Fool. Apparently he wasn't the only joker: what with this "singing the King of Spain's beard" nonsense from Michael Howard. Now, midweek it seems like these absurdities are actually being taken seriously. Is the UK having some kind of massive nervous btreakdown? As an ex-Brit, should I now be thinking af renouncing my UK citizenship on the grounds that the lunatics have taken over the asylum and a total meltdown of stupidity is on its way? If rationality has been so abandoned for rage, then the UK is going to be crippled.
You have less than 18 months to do the deal, you guys have got to be crisp and precise in your negotiations... And at the moment it is like dealing with an acid crazed version of the Honey Monster. You still have not got a full team of negotiators. What is this? Amateur hour at the circus? FFS UK, pull your socks up and get real!
Have the likes of Michael Howard got no ability to see what an embarrassment they are?
The Right in this country treat its citizens with total contempt. They believe that they can get away with anything if they wave the Union Jack. The swivel-eyed Hard Brexit brigade are clearly seeking to build a narrative that will allow the Tories to walk away from the Brexit talks, blame duplicitous foreigners, invoke the spirit of Churchill and dump all over the working people of Britain.
It's the Colonel Blimpshness that's so embarrassing. By the end of these negotiations our reputation in the wider world is going to be trashed. Like the 80's when football fans backed by the Red Tops went through their chauvinistic phase and we became international pariahs. I sense a second coming.
Laughable.
The 5th largest economy and strongest legal system in the world. I think we'll cope.
Strong legal systems are not ones in which judges are described as enemies of the people while those in government stand by.
This notion of judicial infallibility really is tiresome. Are they not fallen, flawed people like the rest of us?
Perhaps you'd be happier if the press only attacked the judges that agreed with the government's position.
The judges are the referees. The Umpires. If their decisions are not respected then the idea of adjudication is destroyed and that which is adjudicated becomes worthless whether it's a sport or justice.
Don't know if it has been mentioned in the UK, but David Davis apparently had a friendly and constructive dinner in Madrid on Sunday with the Spanish foreign minister.
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
I risk.
Full Eeyore mode this morning I see.
I nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, I know why the left is losing. But I am afraid that taking another pop at the lefty metropolitan elite is not widening the debate, it is seeking to paint people who you do not agree with as unpatriotic.
Ha. This is not something I need to be posting about. It is widely understood that the metropolitan left is not patriotic by the only group that matters: the voting public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost by the left in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
There isnot possess any.
I don't doubt your patriotism Mr Observer - I question whether patriotism is a valued concept amongst most of those who have directed the political and social policy of this country in the past 25 years...
Again - you are questioning the patriotism of people whose political views and decision-making you do not like.
Because they are frequently unpatriotic in their views and their decision making....
Strikes me that the Somewheres vs Anywheres division is bang on. And that the Anywheres don't like it up 'em!!!
Yep - people whose views you do not like are not patriotic. As I said, your patriotism revolts me.
It's not patriotism. It's partisan nationalism. Not the same thing.
FPT while I completely disagree with @RichardNabavi about the rights and wrongs of the opening spats of negotiations, I completely agree with him about the likely political consequences of no deal. Indeed, it might well be what Theresa May means by "no deal is better than a bad deal". The political incentives for her to opt for no deal are strong.
Today's Sun front page makes it absolutely clear what the Tory Hard Brexit brigade's strategy is: wave the Union Jack and hope the plebs don't notice they have been totally shafted. It was ever thus. With Corbyn leading Labour it is a strategy that is likely to work. But at some stage the low wage, low job security, pared to the bones public services society the Tories have always wanted to create but have never had the guts to put in front of the electorate will come back to bite them spectacularly hard; and will almost inevitably lead to the break-up of the country that Tories claim to care about so much.
May and Hammond are actually economically left of Cameron and Osborne Scotland would still vote No in virtually every poll
Walking away from the Brexit talks without a deal and creating an offshore, low tax, low wage, low regulation state in which public services are pared to the bone would not be something that anyone to the left of Cameron or Osborne would do. If you are saying May's threats on this are empty, then she is clearly not a very good negotiator.
What a load of rubbish. As May's conference speech and comments today show she is no puppet of big business and indeed Osborne's plans to cut spending to just 35% have been effectively dropped by Hammond who announced a further big increase for social care in the Budget and maintained the commitment to NHS increases and more tax rises than cuts. Both May and Hammond have said they want a deal but even if they don't get one at most their will be a corporation tax cut
It's weird that people get agitated about the egg hunt thing.
Surely the connection between hiding chocolate in a garden and the crucifixion and resurrection of Christ are obvious.
Typical left thinking response.. destroy everything that has gone before
I'm surprised the Left aren't more up in arms by what's clearly an American multi-national's plot to strip British Christian religious significance from a traditional British past-time at the British National Trust - the brand Mondelez International (HQ Deerfield Ill) sells is 'Cadbury creme egg' - they don't want anyone, be it the National Trust or the British Prime Minister mucking it up by inserting 'Easter' into the name - hence the 'Cadbury Egg Hunt'.....
It's marketing, so what?
Should we not refer to the Coca Cola van at Christmas? What's the big deal?
It is an enormosquirrel - but its the media that's making it - following the lead set by the Archbishop of York, not the PM.....
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
I risk.
Full Eeyore mode this morning I see.
I nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, I know why the left is losing. But I am afraid that taking another pop at the lefty metropolitan elite is not widening the debate, it is seeking to paint people who you do not agree with as unpatriotic.
Ha. This is not something I need to be posting about. It is widely understood that the metropolitan left is not patriotic by the only group that matters: the voting public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost by the left in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
There isnot possess any.
I don't doubt your patriotism Mr Observer - I question whether patriotism is a valued concept amongst most of those who have directed the political and social policy of this country in the past 25 years...
Again - you are questioning the patriotism of people whose political views and decision-making you do not like.
Because they are frequently unpatriotic in their views and their decision making....
Strikes me that the Somewheres vs Anywheres division is bang on. And that the Anywheres don't like it up 'em!!!
Yep - people whose views you do not like are not patriotic. As I said, your patriotism revolts me.
Happy for you to be revolted if you keep missing the point and keep losing.
Meanwhile, the sensible common ground of Britain will march on, leaving the Anywheres behind.
If voting matches the opinion polls Labour is likely to lose a similar number this year.
2013 was an unwind from the 2009 local elections though, 2009 elections took place with the background of a resurgent Tory party on the verge of government following a haphazard and incompetent looking labour prime minister.
Is it that bad for labour?
Comparing the opinion polls now to their equivalents in 2009
2009 ICM Con 44 Lab 31 YouGov Con 41 Lab 31 ComRes Con 41 Lab 30 Mori Con 42 Lab 32
2017 ICM Con 43 Lab 25 YouGov Con 43 Lab 25 ComRes Con 42 Lab 25 Mori Con 43 Lab 30
The average Conservative lead is 6% higher now than it was at the equivalent point before the 2009 local elections.
The differential turnout at local elections has traditionally crucified the party in power... will that not be as much a factor this time round?
No, because part of that differential motivation to vote comes from the relative approval ratings. What we don't know is whether the differential turnout gap against the govt will be reduced due to the poll leads, eliminated entirely, or actually reversed.
Central banks are dumping euros amid concerns over political instability, weak growth and the European Central Bank’s negative interest rate policy — and favour sterling as a long-term, stable alternative.
Despite uncertainty over Brexit — formally triggered last week by prime minister Theresa May — central bankers from around the world see the UK as a safer prospect for their reserve investments than the eurozone, a new poll reveals.
@steve_hawkes: PM's words about the National Trust are the strongest I've ever seen from her - could do with the same over Gibraltar
@ZoraSuleman: I think Theresa May speaking out about the National Trust (Easter) Egg hunt - is actually the quickest she's reacted to any news story
Our PM is going on a squirrel hunt. The more Easter on the front pages the less coverage there will be of her attempts to build trade with a fascist theocracy in order to compensate for the loss of trade resulting from our withdrawal from an organisation in which being a democracy is a pre-requisite for membership.
We have always traded with Saudi it is one of our biggest destinations for exports
Also FPT, as one of the formerly undecideds that @isam mentions sceptically, it was precisely because I foresaw that the type of Leave that would be obtained would be dominated by loonies and reactionaries pandering to 1950s nostalgics that I opted for Remain. My fears have been abundantly borne out.
When people on the Remain side lost, they decided the referendum was only 'advisory', took it to the Supreme Court to delay, and now we have Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair, Tim Farron and other assorted EU diehards still trying to stop it happening. It's not a surprise that extremism on one side provokes a response on the other, it happens all the time.
On this site, I can't see anyone calling for hard Brexit but plenty of trolls exaggerating, misinterpreting and booooringly repeating any quote that might help their argument in the press, while the concrete sets around their ankles
Remainers first instinct on June 24th was to stop it happening, how did you think the Tory eurosceptics would react to that? It's all noise, I'm surprised you are falling into the trap if taking notice of it
FPT while I completely disagree with @RichardNabavi about the rights and wrongs of the opening spats of negotiations, I completely agree with him about the likely political consequences of no deal. Indeed, it might well be what Theresa May means by "no deal is better than a bad deal". The political incentives for her to opt for no deal are strong.
Today's Sun front page makes it absolutely clear what the Tory Hard Brexit brigade's strategy is: wave the Union Jack and hope the plebs don't notice they have been totally shafted. It was ever thus. With Corbyn leading Labour it is a strategy that is likely to work. But at some stage the low wage, low job security, pared to the bones public services society the Tories have always wanted to create but have never had the guts to put in front of the electorate will come back to bite them spectacularly hard; and will almost inevitably lead to the break-up of the country that Tories claim to care about so much.
May and Hammond are actually economically left of Cameron and Osborne Scotland would still vote No in virtually every poll
Walking away from the Brexit talks without a deal and creating an offshore, low tax, low wage, low regulation state in which public services are pared to the bone would not be something that anyone to the left of Cameron or Osborne would do. If you are saying May's threats on this are empty, then she is clearly not a very good negotiator.
What a load of rubbish. As May's conference speech and comments today show she is no puppet of big business and indeed Osborne's plans to cut spending to just 35% have been effectively dropped by Hammond who announced a further big increase for social care in the Budget and maintained the commitment to NHS increases and more tax rises than cuts. Both May and Hammond have said they want a deal but even if they don't get one at most their will be a corporation tax cut
So, the threat is give us the deal we want or we will lop off a couple of percentage from our already low levels of Corporation tax. It's not much of a bargaining position, is it?
I don't know which is worse, Theresa May/the right trying to dictate Cadbury's marketing policy or the hysterical reaction in some quarters (the left) to the David Moyes incident.
Moyes sounded like a creepy prick. Why anyone should be surprised that football is full of creepy pricks is...surprising.
Only a creepy prick would think that Moyes sounded like a creepy prick. Extreme Nationalists are always creepy pricks, aren't you ?
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
Theresa May is about standing up for national identity and traditional values, and she will be laughed at and mocked by the commentariat for it.
So be it. It's about bloody time someone did.
Good for her.
Right wing political correctness.
In a way, yes.
But the problem with political correctness is that it was objectionable when it was one sided.Majorities across Western democracies have decided they want to be heard. Mrs May is truly a PM for our times.
A major factor in calculating Labour losses in Scotland is that all the major parties have been very conservative in the number of candidates they have put up in each multi seat STV ward . Take for example Fife where Labour hold now 32 seats out of 78 . There are 22 multi member wards with SNP fielding 45 candidates , Labour 35 , LD 24 , Con and Green 22 each . Labour even with the very bad night forecast by many will get 1 councillor elected in each ward and a few wards will still see 2 elected . They may lose half their vote share last time but only lose fewer than 1/3rd of their councillors
FPT while I completely disagree with @RichardNabavi about the rights and wrongs of the opening spats of negotiations, I completely agree with him about the likely political consequences of no deal. Indeed, it might well be what Theresa May means by "no deal is better than a bad deal". The political incentives for her to opt for no deal are strong.
Today's Sun front page makes it absolutely clear what the Tory Hard Brexit brigade's strategy is: wave the Union Jack and hope the plebs don't notice they have been totally shafted. It was ever thus. With Corbyn leading Labour it is a strategy that is likely to work. But at some stage the low wage, low job security, pared to the bones public services society the Tories have always wanted to create but have never had the guts to put in front of the electorate will come back to bite them spectacularly hard; and will almost inevitably lead to the break-up of the country that Tories claim to care about so much.
May and Hammond are actually economically left of Cameron and Osborne Scotland would still vote No in virtually every poll
Walking away from the Brexit talks without a deal and creating an offshore, low tax, low wage, low regulation state in which public services are pared to the bone would not be something that anyone to the left of Cameron or Osborne would do. If you are saying May's threats on this are empty, then she is clearly not a very good negotiator.
It could be argued that it would be a low tax, high tax receipt, high wage with maintained public services economy. You talk like the laffer curve debate is closed and concluded to your view.
Just an aside, but I like Easter a lot more than Christmas.
Fewer presents to buy, if you don't get someone something they don't care, don't need to think of what to buy, no endless TV ads (some but not a flood), and the day after the shops are full of cut-price chocolate.
FPT while I completely disagree with @RichardNabavi about the rights and wrongs of the opening spats of negotiations, I completely agree with him about the likely political consequences of no deal. Indeed, it might well be what Theresa May means by "no deal is better than a bad deal". The political incentives for her to opt for no deal are strong.
Today's Sun front page makes it absolutely clear what the Tory Hard Brexit brigade's strategy is: wave the Union Jack and hope the plebs don't notice they have been totally shafted. It was ever thus. With Corbyn leading Labour it is a strategy that is likely to work. But at some stage the low wage, low job security, pared to the bones public services society the Tories have always wanted to create but have never had the guts to put in front of the electorate will come back to bite them spectacularly hard; and will almost inevitably lead to the break-up of the country that Tories claim to care about so much.
May and Hammond are actually economically left of Cameron and Osborne Scotland would still vote No in virtually every poll
Walking away from the Brexit talks without a deal and creating an offshore, low tax, low wage, low regulation state in which public services are pared to the bone would not be something that anyone to the left of Cameron or Osborne would do. If you are saying May's threats on this are empty, then she is clearly not a very good negotiator.
What a load of rubbish. As May's conference speech and comments today show she is no puppet of big business and indeed Osborne's plans to cut spending to just 35% have been effectively dropped by Hammond who announced a further big increase for social care in the Budget and maintained the commitment to NHS increases and more tax rises than cuts. Both May and Hammond have said they want a deal but even if they don't get one at most their will be a corporation tax cut
Quite so. I've decided (fairly recently) that I would prefer a less economically dry form of Conservatism, and one that's more socially conservative, to the alternative. We have to build a nation that all feel they have a stake in.
The Brexit campaign helped me with that. It was an eye opener.
From the safe distance of a couple of thousand kilometres away, I had assumed that stuff like Simon Heffer's "let's restore the Imperial system of measurement" was an April Fool. Apparently he wasn't the only joker: what with this "singing the King of Spain's beard" nonsense from Michael Howard. Now, midweek it seems like these absurdities are actually being taken seriously. Is the UK having some kind of massive nervous btreakdown? As an ex-Brit, should I now be thinking af renouncing my UK citizenship on the grounds that the lunatics have taken over the asylum and a total meltdown of stupidity is on its way? If rationality has been so abandoned for rage, then the UK is going to be crippled. I don't buy the Dawkins "nasty backwater" guff, but if I believe the press (and to be honest the Brexit bollocks often on display here) then I feel genuinely concerned for the social and political cohesion of the U.K. The talks are tricky enough as it is, and trying to advise one side, when the other seems to have slipped the bonds of reason is not going to be especially productive. You guys have got to be kidding, right? Threats of War? Imperial measures? Blue passports? Yet meanwhile no constructive ideas for how your economy will function outside the single market.
You have less than 18 months to do the deal, you guys have got to be crisp and precise in your negotiations... And at the moment it is like dealing with an acid crazed version of the Honey Monster. You still have not got a full team of negotiators. What is this? Amateur hour at the circus? FFS UK, pull your socks up and get real!
Have the likes of Michael Howard got no ability to see what an embarrassment they are?
Roger I am more embarrassed that something like you shares my nationality than anyone else
A major factor in calculating Labour losses in Scotland is that all the major parties have been very conservative in the number of candidates they have put up in each multi seat STV ward . Take for example Fife where Labour hold now 32 seats out of 78 . There are 22 multi member wards with SNP fielding 45 candidates , Labour 35 , LD 24 , Con and Green 22 each . Labour even with the very bad night forecast by many will get 1 councillor elected in each ward and a few wards will still see 2 elected . They may lose half their vote share last time but only lose fewer than 1/3rd of their councillors
It's why I think about 250 losses overall is the likeliest outcome for Labour.
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
I risk.
Full Eeyore mode this morning I see.
I nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, unpatriotic.
Ha. public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost by the left in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
There isnot possess any.
I in the past 25 years...
Again - you are questioning the patriotism of people whose political views and decision-making you do not like.
Because they are frequently unpatriotic in their views and their decision making....
Strikes me that the Somewheres vs Anywheres division is bang on. And that the Anywheres don't like it up 'em!!!
Yep - people whose views you do not like are not patriotic. As I said, your patriotism revolts me.
Happy for you to be revolted if you keep missing the point and keep losing.
Meanwhile, the sensible common ground of Britain will march on, leaving the Anywheres behind.
The "sensible common ground" is utterly dependent on those who look outwards and do not believe that dialogue and collaboration are the kinds of thing that only quisling traitors indulge in. Or, put another way, those who voted Leave need those who voted Remain to keep on generating the wealth they depend on. They are lucky that Remain voters are patriots.
FPT while I completely disagree with @RichardNabavi about the rights and wrongs of the opening spats of negotiations, I completely agree with him about the likely political consequences of no deal. Indeed, it might well be what Theresa May means by "no deal is better than a bad deal". The political incentives for her to opt for no deal are strong.
Today's Sun front page makes it absolutely clear what the Tory Hard Brexit brigade's strategy is: wave the Union Jack and hope the plebs don't notice they have been totally shafted. It was ever thus. With Corbyn leading Labour it is a strategy that is likely to work. But at some stage the low wage, low job security, pared to the bones public services society the Tories have always wanted to create but have never had the guts to put in front of the electorate will come back to bite them spectacularly hard; and will almost inevitably lead to the break-up of the country that Tories claim to care about so much.
May and Hammond are actually economically left of Cameron and Osborne Scotland would still vote No in virtually every poll
Walking away from the Brexit talks without a deal and creating an offshore, low tax, low wage, low regulation state in which public services are pared to the bone would not be something that anyone to the left of Cameron or Osborne would do. If you are saying May's threats on this are empty, then she is clearly not a very good negotiator.
What a load of rubbish. As May's conference speech and comments today show she is no puppet of big business and indeed Osborne's plans to cut spending to just 35% have been effectively dropped by Hammond who announced a further big increase for social care in the Budget and maintained the commitment to NHS increases and more tax rises than cuts. Both May and Hammond have said they want a deal but even if they don't get one at most their will be a corporation tax cut
So, the threat is give us the deal we want or we will lop off a couple of percentage from our already low levels of Corporation tax. It's not much of a bargaining position, is it?
It will be enough for the fudged deal and a few bilateral agreements May and Hammond want
I don't know which is worse, Theresa May/the right trying to dictate Cadbury's marketing policy or the hysterical reaction in some quarters (the left) to the David Moyes incident.
Moyes sounded like a creepy prick. Why anyone should be surprised that football is full of creepy pricks is...surprising.
Only a creepy prick would think that Moyes sounded like a creepy prick. Extreme Nationalists are always creepy pricks, aren't you ?
Since you're a far more extreme British nationalist than I'm a Scottish one, fair enough.
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
Theresa May is about standing up for national identity and traditional values, and she will be laughed at and mocked by the commentariat for it.
So be it. It's about bloody time someone did.
Good for her.
Right wing political correctness.
Not really. It's nice to have a politician defend the family, our traditions and Christianity on the airwaves.
Is it one of our traditions that Cadbury's sponsors Easter egg hunts on National Trust properties?
Why don't you take a break and have a lie-down?
You've been posting on here every 5 minutes for the last 72 hours, in various states of apoplexy and exasperation.
It can't be good for your health.
That'll be a No then :-)
Keep it up SO. Important to challenge some of this lazy right wing bullshit. Especially when they challenge the patriotism of anyone outside their bubble. Potentially insidious.
A major factor in calculating Labour losses in Scotland is that all the major parties have been very conservative in the number of candidates they have put up in each multi seat STV ward . Take for example Fife where Labour hold now 32 seats out of 78 . There are 22 multi member wards with SNP fielding 45 candidates , Labour 35 , LD 24 , Con and Green 22 each . Labour even with the very bad night forecast by many will get 1 councillor elected in each ward and a few wards will still see 2 elected . They may lose half their vote share last time but only lose fewer than 1/3rd of their councillors
I haven't put in the effort to check out things like that so i am leaving any council elections betting well alone.
Just an aside, but I like Easter a lot more than Christmas.
Fewer presents to buy, if you don't get someone something they don't care, don't need to think of what to buy, no endless TV ads (some but not a flood), and the day after the shops are full of cut-price chocolate.
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
Theresa May is about standing up for national identity and traditional values, and she will be laughed at and mocked by the commentariat for it.
So be it. It's about bloody time someone did.
Good for her.
Right wing political correctness.
Not really. It's nice to have a politician defend the family, our traditions and Christianity on the airwaves.
Is it one of our traditions that Cadbury's sponsors Easter egg hunts on National Trust properties?
Why don't you take a break and have a lie-down?
You've been posting on here every 5 minutes for the last 72 hours, in various states of apoplexy and exasperation.
It can't be good for your health.
That'll be a No then :-)
Keep it up SO. Important to challenge some of this lazy right wing bullshit. Especially when they challenge the patriotism of anyone outside their bubble. Potentially insidious.
But the left challenging the right's audacity to speak up for the majority is perfectly acceptable, eh?
Yet again, little wonder why they're languishing in the polls.
FPT while I completely disagree with @RichardNabavi about the rights and wrongs of the opening spats of negotiations, I completely agree with him about the likely political consequences of no deal. Indeed, it might well be what Theresa May means by "no deal is better than a bad deal". The political incentives for her to opt for no deal are strong.
Today's Sun front page makes it absolutely clear what the Tory Hard Brexit brigade's strategy is: wave the Union Jack and hope the plebs don't notice they have been totally shafted. It was ever thus. With Corbyn leading Labour it is a strategy that is likely to work. But at some stage the low wage, low job security, pared to the bones public services society the Tories have always wanted to create but have never had the guts to put in front of the electorate will come back to bite them spectacularly hard; and will almost inevitably lead to the break-up of the country that Tories claim to care about so much.
May and Hammond are actually economically left of Cameron and Osborne Scotland would still vote No in virtually every poll
Walking away from the Brexit talks without a deal and creating an offshore, low tax, low wage, low regulation state in which public services are pared to the bone would not be something that anyone to the left of Cameron or Osborne would do. If you are saying May's threats on this are empty, then she is clearly not a very good negotiator.
What a load of rubbish. As May's conference speech and comments today show she is no puppet of big business and indeed Osborne's plans to cut spending to just 35% have been effectively dropped by Hammond who announced a further big increase for social care in the Budget and maintained the commitment to NHS increases and more tax rises than cuts. Both May and Hammond have said they want a deal but even if they don't get one at most their will be a corporation tax cut
Quite so. I've decided (fairly recently) that I would prefer a less economically dry form of Conservatism, and one that's more socially conservative, to the alternative. We have to build a nation that all feel they have a stake in.
The Brexit campaign helped me with that. It was an eye opener.
Indeed and surprisingly even some Labour voters like Justin124 have said May is a more moderate Tory leader on the economic front at least
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
Theresa May is about standing up for national identity and traditional values, and she will be laughed at and mocked by the commentariat for it.
So be it. It's about bloody time someone did.
Good for her.
Right wing political correctness.
Not really. It's nice to have a politician defend the family, our traditions and Christianity on the airwaves.
Is it one of our traditions that Cadbury's sponsors Easter egg hunts on National Trust properties?
Fixed it for ya!
Do you think Easter Egg gate has driven Gibraltar off the front pages?
I think that "look a squirrel" is certainly a very helpful strategy for the government currently. The more that they can get invented outrage onto the front pages the less scrutiny of what actually matters there will be.
It's weird that people get agitated about the egg hunt thing.
Surely the connection between hiding chocolate in a garden and the crucifixion and resurrection of Christ are obvious.
Typical left thinking response.. destroy everything that has gone before
I'm surprised the Left aren't more up in arms by what's clearly an American multi-national's plot to strip British Christian religious significance from a traditional British past-time at the British National Trust - the brand Mondelez International (HQ Deerfield Ill) sells is 'Cadbury creme egg' - they don't want anyone, be it the National Trust or the British Prime Minister mucking it up by inserting 'Easter' into the name - hence the 'Cadbury Egg Hunt'.....
It's marketing, so what?
Should we not refer to the Coca Cola van at Christmas? What's the big deal?
It is an enormosquirrel - but its the media that's making it - following the lead set by the Archbishop of York, not the PM.....
Should be renamed the Archbishop of Yorkie.
That would be Rowntree (now Nestle...)
Appros of nothing, I worked for Nestle in the early 90's. The person in charge of one of the Kitkat plants had a surname of Blofeld. It amused me much when I saw it in the internal directory.
@faisalislam: ...means it will be concluded under EU27 unanimity not A50 QMV. At end of A50 she says "everyone will know what future arrangement will be"
@faisalislam: ... PM tells me that this is "sensible" and "pragmatic"...
@faisalislam: ... so that's a veto not just for Spain but for everyone including Wallonia too
@faisalislam: ...means it will be concluded under EU27 unanimity not A50 QMV. At end of A50 she says "everyone will know what future arrangement will be"
@faisalislam: ... PM tells me that this is "sensible" and "pragmatic"...
@faisalislam: ... so that's a veto not just for Spain but for everyone including Wallonia too
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
Theresa May is about standing up for national identity and traditional values, and she will be laughed at and mocked by the commentariat for it.
So be it. It's about bloody time someone did.
Good for her.
Right wing political correctness.
Not really. It's nice to have a politician defend the family, our traditions and Christianity on the airwaves.
Is it one of our traditions that Cadbury's sponsors Easter egg hunts on National Trust properties?
Why don't you take a break and have a lie-down?
You've been posting on here every 5 minutes for the last 72 hours, in various states of apoplexy and exasperation.
It can't be good for your health.
That'll be a No then :-)
Keep it up SO. Important to challenge some of this lazy right wing bullshit. Especially when they challenge the patriotism of anyone outside their bubble. Potentially insidious.
But the left challenging the right's audacity to speak up for the majority is perfectly acceptable, eh?
Yet again, little wonder why they're languishing in the polls.
It is important to challenge the idea that the right's version of patriotism is the only legitimate one - especially when the hard Brexit right clearly sees our withdrawal from the EU as a significant opportunity to create the kind of low tax, low regulation, small state it knows that voters would reject if it was put to them explicitly.
One interesting theory I saw on one of the Letters Pages was that after the IndyRef was lost, and Independence was 'off the table for a generation' Labour voters could switch to SNP without fear of going through IndyRef again - now IndyRef2 is on the horizon, to what extent might that unwind?
Yup read that recently, the idea that voting SNP after indyref was a safe way to cripple SLab which to be fair worked wonderfully until the SNP got desparate for IndyRef2.
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
Theresa May is about standing up for national identity and traditional values, and she will be laughed at and mocked by the commentariat for it.
So be it. It's about bloody time someone did.
Good for her.
Right wing political correctness.
Not really. It's nice to have a politician defend the family, our traditions and Christianity on the airwaves.
Is it one of our traditions that Cadbury's sponsors Easter egg hunts on National Trust properties?
Why don't you take a break and have a lie-down?
You've been posting on here every 5 minutes for the last 72 hours, in various states of apoplexy and exasperation.
It can't be good for your health.
That'll be a No then :-)
Keep it up SO. Important to challenge some of this lazy right wing bullshit. Especially when they challenge the patriotism of anyone outside their bubble. Potentially insidious.
But the left challenging the right's audacity to speak up for the majority is perfectly acceptable, eh?
Yet again, little wonder why they're languishing in the polls.
You don't speak for the majority. At most, you speak for what's currently the largest and best organised minority view. Anything else is hubris.
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
Theresa May is about standing up for national identity and traditional values, and she will be laughed at and mocked by the commentariat for it.
So be it. It's about bloody time someone did.
Good for her.
Right wing political correctness.
Not really. It's nice to have a politician defend the family, our traditions and Christianity on the airwaves.
Is it one of our traditions that Cadbury's sponsors Easter egg hunts on National Trust properties?
Fixed it for ya!
Do you think Easter Egg gate has driven Gibraltar off the front pages?
I think that "look a squirrel" is certainly a very helpful strategy for the government currently. The more that they can get invented outrage onto the front pages the less scrutiny of what actually matters there will be.
We can't have 'invented outrage' can we?! So muggy
I don't know which is worse, Theresa May/the right trying to dictate Cadbury's marketing policy or the hysterical reaction in some quarters (the left) to the David Moyes incident.
Moyes sounded like a creepy prick. Why anyone should be surprised that football is full of creepy pricks is...surprising.
Only a creepy prick would think that Moyes sounded like a creepy prick. Extreme Nationalists are always creepy pricks, aren't you ?
Since you're a far more extreme British nationalist than I'm a Scottish one, fair enough.
Britain is multi-national. You're a nationalist, I'm not.
@faisalislam: ...means it will be concluded under EU27 unanimity not A50 QMV. At end of A50 she says "everyone will know what future arrangement will be"
@faisalislam: ... PM tells me that this is "sensible" and "pragmatic"...
@faisalislam: ... so that's a veto not just for Spain but for everyone including Wallonia too
That's pretty obvious though, isn't it? We deal with the EU as a single body in order to sort out how we leave, then the EU finalises a trade deal with us just as it would with any other third party - some countries may even need referendums before signing up. What it also means, of course, is that there is absolutely no way on earth the deal can be done before we leave the EU. So that does either mean the cliff edge or a transitional deal.
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
Theresa May is about standing up for national identity and traditional values, and she will be laughed at and mocked by the commentariat for it.
So be it. It's about bloody time someone did.
Good for her.
Right wing political correctness.
Not really. It's nice to have a politician defend the family, our traditions and Christianity on the airwaves.
Is it one of our traditions that Cadbury's sponsors Easter egg hunts on National Trust properties?
Why don't you take a break and have a lie-down?
You've been posting on here every 5 minutes for the last 72 hours, in various states of apoplexy and exasperation.
It can't be good for your health.
That'll be a No then :-)
Keep it up SO. Important to challenge some of this lazy right wing bullshit. Especially when they challenge the patriotism of anyone outside their bubble. Potentially insidious.
But the left challenging the right's audacity to speak up for the majority is perfectly acceptable, eh?
Yet again, little wonder why they're languishing in the polls.
It is important to challenge the idea that the right's version of patriotism is the only legitimate one - especially when the hard Brexit right clearly sees our withdrawal from the EU as a significant opportunity to create the kind of low tax, low regulation, small state it knows that voters would reject if it was put to them explicitly.
There you go again.
Seriously, calm down dear. Brexit is being administered by the most Left Wing Tory PM since Heath.
One interesting theory I saw on one of the Letters Pages was that after the IndyRef was lost, and Independence was 'off the table for a generation' Labour voters could switch to SNP without fear of going through IndyRef again - now IndyRef2 is on the horizon, to what extent might that unwind?
Yup read that recently, the idea that voting SNP after indyref was a safe way to cripple SLab which to be fair worked wonderfully until the SNP got desparate for IndyRef2.
Except it's bollocks. What happened is that Indy supporting Labour voters have switched to the SNP because they didn't like being called Nazis by a party they had voted for all their lives.
I don't know which is worse, Theresa May/the right trying to dictate Cadbury's marketing policy or the hysterical reaction in some quarters (the left) to the David Moyes incident.
Moyes sounded like a creepy prick. Why anyone should be surprised that football is full of creepy pricks is...surprising.
Only a creepy prick would think that Moyes sounded like a creepy prick. Extreme Nationalists are always creepy pricks, aren't you ?
Since you're a far more extreme British nationalist than I'm a Scottish one, fair enough.
Britain is multi-national. You're a nationalist, I'm not.
I don't know which is worse, Theresa May/the right trying to dictate Cadbury's marketing policy or the hysterical reaction in some quarters (the left) to the David Moyes incident.
Moyes sounded like a creepy prick. Why anyone should be surprised that football is full of creepy pricks is...surprising.
Only a creepy prick would think that Moyes sounded like a creepy prick. Extreme Nationalists are always creepy pricks, aren't you ?
Since you're a far more extreme British nationalist than I'm a Scottish one, fair enough.
Britain is multi-national. You're a nationalist, I'm not.
Britain: providing a fig-leaf to cover nationalism since 1707.
@faisalislam: ...means it will be concluded under EU27 unanimity not A50 QMV. At end of A50 she says "everyone will know what future arrangement will be"
@faisalislam: ... PM tells me that this is "sensible" and "pragmatic"...
@faisalislam: ... so that's a veto not just for Spain but for everyone including Wallonia too
That's pretty obvious though, isn't it? We deal with the EU as a single body in order to sort out how we leave, then the EU finalises a trade deal with us just as it would with any other third party - some countries may even need referendums before signing up. What it also means, of course, is that there is absolutely no way on earth the deal can be done before we leave the EU. So that does either mean the cliff edge or a transitional deal.
Who frankly cares that much about a deal, it is a minority of firms that deal with the eu. About 5% of our total trade and I dont see why I as a tax payer should subsidise your firm. If we pay anything to the eu for access to the single market after leaving then I think those that trade with the eu such as your company should be the ones paying it and not dipping in to my wallet.
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
Theresa May is about standing up for national identity and traditional values, and she will be laughed at and mocked by the commentariat for it.
So be it. It's about bloody time someone did.
Good for her.
Right wing political correctness.
Not really. It's nice to have a politician defend the family, our traditions and Christianity on the airwaves.
Is it one of our traditions that Cadbury's sponsors Easter egg hunts on National Trust properties?
Why don't you take a break and have a lie-down?
You've been posting on here every 5 minutes for the last 72 hours, in various states of apoplexy and exasperation.
It can't be good for your health.
That'll be a No then :-)
Keep it up SO. Important to challenge some of this lazy right wing bullshit. Especially when they challenge the patriotism of anyone outside their bubble. Potentially insidious.
But the left challenging the right's audacity to speak up for the majority is perfectly acceptable, eh?
Yet again, little wonder why they're languishing in the polls.
It is important to challenge the idea that the right's version of patriotism is the only legitimate one - especially when the hard Brexit right clearly sees our withdrawal from the EU as a significant opportunity to create the kind of low tax, low regulation, small state it knows that voters would reject if it was put to them explicitly.
There you go again.
Seriously, calm down dear. Brexit is being administered by the most Left Wing Tory PM since Heath.
Top tip. If you question someone's patriotism you might get a response. If you can't handle it don't throw stones in the first place.
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
Theresa May is about standing up for national identity and traditional values, and she will be laughed at and mocked by the commentariat for it.
So be it. It's about bloody time someone did.
Good for her.
Right wing political correctness.
Not really. It's nice to have a politician defend the family, our traditions and Christianity on the airwaves.
Is it one of our traditions that Cadbury's sponsors Easter egg hunts on National Trust properties?
Why don't you take a break and have a lie-down?
You've been posting on here every 5 minutes for the last 72 hours, in various states of apoplexy and exasperation.
It can't be good for your health.
That'll be a No then :-)
Keep it up SO. Important to challenge some of this lazy right wing bullshit. Especially when they challenge the patriotism of anyone outside their bubble. Potentially insidious.
But the left challenging the right's audacity to speak up for the majority is perfectly acceptable, eh?
Yet again, little wonder why they're languishing in the polls.
It is important to challenge the idea that the right's version of patriotism is the only legitimate one - especially when the hard Brexit right clearly sees our withdrawal from the EU as a significant opportunity to create the kind of low tax, low regulation, small state it knows that voters would reject if it was put to them explicitly.
You are wrong. Osborne was already leading the UK towards such a vision, as the Tea Party was in the US. While Brexit and Trump have revived the populist and nationalist right if anything they have set back the economically libertarian right, see Hammond replacing Osborne and Trump now preferring moderate Democrats to the Republican Freedom Caucus
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
Theresa May is about standing up for national identity and traditional values, and she will be laughed at and mocked by the commentariat for it.
So be it. It's about bloody time someone did.
Good for her.
Right wing political correctness.
Not really. It's nice to have a politician defend the family, our traditions and Christianity on the airwaves.
Is it one of our traditions that Cadbury's sponsors Easter egg hunts on National Trust properties?
Why don't you take a break and have a lie-down?
You've been posting on here every 5 minutes for the last 72 hours, in various states of apoplexy and exasperation.
It can't be good for your health.
That'll be a No then :-)
Keep it up SO. Important to challenge some of this lazy right wing bullshit. Especially when they challenge the patriotism of anyone outside their bubble. Potentially insidious.
But the left challenging the right's audacity to speak up for the majority is perfectly acceptable, eh?
Yet again, little wonder why they're languishing in the polls.
It is important to challenge the idea that the right's version of patriotism is the only legitimate one - especially when the hard Brexit right clearly sees our withdrawal from the EU as a significant opportunity to create the kind of low tax, low regulation, small state it knows that voters would reject if it was put to them explicitly.
There you go again.
Seriously, calm down dear. Brexit is being administered by the most Left Wing Tory PM since Heath.
Brexit exists on the right-wrong axis, not right-left.
I don't know which is worse, Theresa May/the right trying to dictate Cadbury's marketing policy or the hysterical reaction in some quarters (the left) to the David Moyes incident.
Moyes sounded like a creepy prick. Why anyone should be surprised that football is full of creepy pricks is...surprising.
"Moyesie" should definitely be sacked over his disgusting comment. He would have been in lots of other jobs.
FPT while I completely disagree with @RichardNabavi about the rights and wrongs of the opening spats of negotiations, I completely agree with him about the likely political consequences of no deal. Indeed, it might well be what Theresa May means by "no deal is better than a bad deal". The political incentives for her to opt for no deal are strong.
Today's Sun front page makes it absolutely clear what the Tory Hard Brexit brigade's strategy is: wave the Union Jack and hope the plebs don't notice they have been totally shafted. It was ever thus. With Corbyn leading Labour it is a strategy that is likely to work. But at some stage the low wage, low job security, pared to the bones public services society the Tories have always wanted to create but have never had the guts to put in front of the electorate will come back to bite them spectacularly hard; and will almost inevitably lead to the break-up of the country that Tories claim to care about so much.
May and Hammond are actually economically left of Cameron and Osborne Scotland would still vote No in virtually every poll
Walking away from the Brexit talks without a deal and creating an offshore, low tax, low wage, low regulation state in which public services are pared to the bone would not be something that anyone to the left of Cameron or Osborne would do. If you are saying May's threats on this are empty, then she is clearly not a very good negotiator.
What a load of rubbish. As May's conference speech and comments today show she is no puppet of big business and indeed Osborne's plans to cut spending to just 35% have been effectively dropped by Hammond who announced a further big increase for social care in the Budget and maintained the commitment to NHS increases and more tax rises than cuts. Both May and Hammond have said they want a deal but even if they don't get one at most their will be a corporation tax cut
Quite so. I've decided (fairly recently) that I would prefer a less economically dry form of Conservatism, and one that's more socially conservative, to the alternative. We have to build a nation that all feel they have a stake in.
The Brexit campaign helped me with that. It was an eye opener.
I have as well. The Conservatives cannot rule as the party of just the wealthy, healthy and childless I.e. those who are most attracted to libertarian ideas.
@faisalislam: ...means it will be concluded under EU27 unanimity not A50 QMV. At end of A50 she says "everyone will know what future arrangement will be"
@faisalislam: ... PM tells me that this is "sensible" and "pragmatic"...
@faisalislam: ... so that's a veto not just for Spain but for everyone including Wallonia too
That's pretty obvious though, isn't it? We deal with the EU as a single body in order to sort out how we leave, then the EU finalises a trade deal with us just as it would with any other third party - some countries may even need referendums before signing up. What it also means, of course, is that there is absolutely no way on earth the deal can be done before we leave the EU. So that does either mean the cliff edge or a transitional deal.
Who frankly cares that much about a deal, it is a minority of firms that deal with the eu. About 5% of our total trade and I dont see why I as a tax payer should subsidise your firm. If we pay anything to the eu for access to the single market after leaving then I think those that trade with the eu such as your company should be the ones paying it and not dipping in to my wallet.
Does that mean we get to pay no Corporation tax on our EU-derived profits? Maybe our employees could pay less tax too? What do you reckon?
Both are excuses for a great big family dinner with all the trimmings. I could not care less about the religious aspects nor the crass commercialism that also accompanies both dates.
These numbers are surely wildly out. In Scotland Labour won 394 seats on 31.39% of the vote in 2012. There is, on current polling, a very strong probability that they will get less than 20% of the vote this time, possibly much less.
There are 1223 Councillors in Scotland. 20% of the vote, on a system that is largely proportional, gives them 244, a loss of 150. In Scotland alone. It is possible that Labour's vote will remain more efficient but this is at the margins. Last time 31.39% of first preferences got them 32.2% of the seats. The reverse is actually more likely in that the electoral system punishes smaller parties. Last time the Tories got 9.4% of the seats on 13.27% of the vote.
Mike speculates that Labour might lose Glasgow. I would say that is absolutely nailed on. In fact I do not expect them to retain outright control of a single Scottish Council and they will lose control of others such as Fife where they are currently the biggest single party.
So unless Lord Heyward is anticipating some net gains for Labour in England (and I do think they will pick up some UKIP seats) his numbers are, well, optimistic from a Labour perspective.
Yeah, barring STV interactions that I am too stupid to understand I do not see how Labour retains control of Glasgow.
Not least because the combination of a growing tribal antipathy between SNP and Labour, and Tory/LibDem antipathy to Corbyn may well create some sort of anti-Labour consensus as to where the second and third preferences go. It is hard to see a big constituency of people for whom ScotLab is even a second choice right now.
Not sure about that. The Unionists are nervous and will support other Unionists, even Labour.
The National Trust and Cadbury have dropped 'Easter' from the official title of their hunt.
They mention it elsewhere, but it probably is significant they don't have it in the title
'Cadbury, which sponsors the event, said that it wanted to appeal to non-Christians, saying: "We invite people from all faiths and none to enjoy our seasonal treats." '
A major factor in calculating Labour losses in Scotland is that all the major parties have been very conservative in the number of candidates they have put up in each multi seat STV ward . Take for example Fife where Labour hold now 32 seats out of 78 . There are 22 multi member wards with SNP fielding 45 candidates , Labour 35 , LD 24 , Con and Green 22 each . Labour even with the very bad night forecast by many will get 1 councillor elected in each ward and a few wards will still see 2 elected . They may lose half their vote share last time but only lose fewer than 1/3rd of their councillors
Mark - your overall comment makes sense, but to nitpick, Labour are unlikely to win a seat in wards like Cupar (where they got 8% last time)
These numbers are surely wildly out. In Scotland Labour won 394 seats on 31.39% of the vote in 2012. There is, on current polling, a very strong probability that they will get less than 20% of the vote this time, possibly much less.
There are 1223 Councillors in Scotland. 20% of the vote, on a system that is largely proportional, gives them 244, a loss of 150. In Scotland alone. It is possible that Labour's vote will remain more efficient but this is at the margins. Last time 31.39% of first preferences got them 32.2% of the seats. The reverse is actually more likely in that the electoral system punishes smaller parties. Last time the Tories got 9.4% of the seats on 13.27% of the vote.
Mike speculates that Labour might lose Glasgow. I would say that is absolutely nailed on. In fact I do not expect them to retain outright control of a single Scottish Council and they will lose control of others such as Fife where they are currently the biggest single party.
So unless Lord Heyward is anticipating some net gains for Labour in England (and I do think they will pick up some UKIP seats) his numbers are, well, optimistic from a Labour perspective.
Yeah, barring STV interactions that I am too stupid to understand I do not see how Labour retains control of Glasgow.
Not least because the combination of a growing tribal antipathy between SNP and Labour, and Tory/LibDem antipathy to Corbyn may well create some sort of anti-Labour consensus as to where the second and third preferences go. It is hard to see a big constituency of people for whom ScotLab is even a second choice right now.
Not sure about that. The Unionists are nervous and will support other Unionists, even Labour.
Correct, I'm trying to find the recent bye-election which was won on the 7th round by the not-SNP candidate as Unionist Transfers piled up.
@faisalislam: ...means it will be concluded under EU27 unanimity not A50 QMV. At end of A50 she says "everyone will know what future arrangement will be"
@faisalislam: ... PM tells me that this is "sensible" and "pragmatic"...
@faisalislam: ... so that's a veto not just for Spain but for everyone including Wallonia too
That's pretty obvious though, isn't it? We deal with the EU as a single body in order to sort out how we leave, then the EU finalises a trade deal with us just as it would with any other third party - some countries may even need referendums before signing up. What it also means, of course, is that there is absolutely no way on earth the deal can be done before we leave the EU. So that does either mean the cliff edge or a transitional deal.
Who frankly cares that much about a deal, it is a minority of firms that deal with the eu. About 5% of our total trade and I dont see why I as a tax payer should subsidise your firm. If we pay anything to the eu for access to the single market after leaving then I think those that trade with the eu such as your company should be the ones paying it and not dipping in to my wallet.
Does that mean we get to pay no Corporation tax on our EU-derived profits? Maybe our employees could pay less tax too? What do you reckon?
Why should you pay no tax on eu derived profits. Firms that trade with China do the only difference is they are not subsidised by british tax payers. Why should your company be subsidised? You trade with europe good for you pay the true cost of doing business there dont expect me to pay it for you
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
Theresa May is about standing up for national identity and traditional values, and she will be laughed at and mocked by the commentariat for it.
So be it. It's about bloody time someone did.
Good for her.
Right wing political correctness.
Not really. It's nice to have a politician defend the family, our traditions and Christianity on the airwaves.
Is it one of our traditions that Cadbury's sponsors Easter egg hunts on National Trust properties?
Why don't you take a break and have a lie-down?
You've been posting on here every 5 minutes for the last 72 hours, in various states of apoplexy and exasperation.
It can't be good for your health.
That'll be a No then :-)
Keep it up SO. Important to challenge some of this lazy right wing bullshit. Especially when they challenge the patriotism of anyone outside their bubble. Potentially insidious.
But the left challenging the right's audacity to speak up for the majority is perfectly acceptable, eh?
Yet again, little wonder why they're languishing in the polls.
It is important to challenge the idea that the right's version of patriotism is the only legitimate one - especially when the hard Brexit right clearly sees our withdrawal from the EU as a significant opportunity to create the kind of low tax, low regulation, small state it knows that voters would reject if it was put to them explicitly.
There you go again.
Seriously, calm down dear. Brexit is being administered by the most Left Wing Tory PM since Heath.
We will not find out if that is true until the final Brexit deal is done (or not done). Meanwhile
David Herdson suggested there might have been no polling on the forthcoming local elections in Scotland.
In fact Wings over Scotland commissioned such a Panelbase poll and published the results on his website on 14 February this year.
His summary of the percentage support for each party from "likely voters" was
SNP 47 Con 26 Lab 14 LD 5 Green 4 UKIP 3 Other 1
Only the STV system will save the British Labour Party in Scotland, who were only 1% behind the SNP in 2012, from utter devastation. This is partly due to Tory and Labour supporters giving later preference votes to their unionist friends. It is even possible that Tory/Labour administrations may well emerge after May 2017.
I also anticipate significant gains for the Conservatives which will be trumpeted as a vote against an independence referendum. Even with the compliant unionist media pushing this line, it will not be convincing, as the Tories will be substantially outpolled by the SNP.
AND in the background is the recent opinion poll indicating that in Scotland 61 per cent believed Holyrood should decide if there should be a new independence referendum compared with 39 per cent who thought it should be Westminster.
Badly advised by Ruth Davidson, May (who suggested the local elections should be used by voters to indicate opposition to another referendum) finds herself on the wrong side of the "who decides" argument, and the longer the delay, the more the demographics favour a Yes vote next time.
Who frankly cares that much about a deal, it is a minority of firms that deal with the eu. About 5% of our total trade
Every car "manufactured" in the UK relies on EU parts. They care. A lot.
And the firms that benefit should be the ones paying the cost of doing business with europe not expecting me to pay to bolster there profits. That is the crux corporate welfare is what we have been doling out to those firms.
@faisalislam: ...means it will be concluded under EU27 unanimity not A50 QMV. At end of A50 she says "everyone will know what future arrangement will be"
@faisalislam: ... PM tells me that this is "sensible" and "pragmatic"...
@faisalislam: ... so that's a veto not just for Spain but for everyone including Wallonia too
That's pretty obvious though, isn't it? We deal with the EU as a single body in order to sort out how we leave, then the EU finalises a trade deal with us just as it would with any other third party - some countries may even need referendums before signing up. What it also means, of course, is that there is absolutely no way on earth the deal can be done before we leave the EU. So that does either mean the cliff edge or a transitional deal.
Who frankly cares that much about a deal, it is a minority of firms that deal with the eu. About 5% of our total trade and I dont see why I as a tax payer should subsidise your firm. If we pay anything to the eu for access to the single market after leaving then I think those that trade with the eu such as your company should be the ones paying it and not dipping in to my wallet.
Does that mean we get to pay no Corporation tax on our EU-derived profits? Maybe our employees could pay less tax too? What do you reckon?
Why should you pay no tax on eu derived profits. Firms that trade with China do the only difference is they are not subsidised by british tax payers. Why should your company be subsidised? You trade with europe good for you pay the true cost of doing business there dont expect me to pay it for you
My company is not subsidised. My company is a net contributor and its employees - all of whom earn well over the minimum wage - are also paying a great deal of tax. If you do not like that, I am sorry. All that Brexit will do is lead us to reduce investments made in our UK office and increase them elsewhere. That will mean we pay less tax in the UK than we do now and will create fewer jobs in the UK.
I agree with the comments down thread. Brexit has not got off to a good start. The ludicrous Dad's Army stuff from Howard, The Sun etc. seems designed to wreck our relationship with mainland Europe irreparably. I can only assume these people have looked at Trump with envious eyes and decided that some kind of 51st-state arrangement is desirably - no other explanation makes any kind of sense. On Sunday, even the normally restrained SeanT descended into Bannonite, sub-Nietzschean drivel and openly proclaimed his craving for war. If an intellectual of that standing can become infected with this lust for jingoism and conflict what hope the low-graders? Truly worrying times.
Quite so. I've decided (fairly recently) that I would prefer a less economically dry form of Conservatism, and one that's more socially conservative, to the alternative.
We have to build a nation that all feel they have a stake in.
How do you manage that, given the other part of your statement? How can the more socially liberal feel they have a stake in an increasingly conservative society?
Who frankly cares that much about a deal, it is a minority of firms that deal with the eu. About 5% of our total trade
Every car "manufactured" in the UK relies on EU parts. They care. A lot.
And the firms that benefit should be the ones paying the cost of doing business with europe not expecting me to pay to bolster there profits. That is the crux corporate welfare is what we have been doling out to those firms.
You must pay a hell of a lot of tax to be subsidising all these organisations. What happens to all the people who lose their jobs as a result of your unwillingness to pay the UK's EU dues? What do we do about the much lower tax take that will be caused by the reduced inward investment you demand?
I've found it interesting how little traction the Russian bombing seems to have generated in the news, and even among the comments here, from what I have seen, it's hardly been a topic of interest. It's obviously going to get less attention than an attack in the UK, or on one of our close neighbours, but it seems to have completely been ignored after the initial reporting. Is that just my impression or have others remarked on it as well? I would have expected more coverage of this?
I try to make widen a political debate with observation on failed policies of internationalism - which fails those people that I care about, and that I truly believe you do too, because of huge competition at the lower end of the wage scale - and you just shake your head and say that you don't like it because you think it makes us look nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, I know why the left is losing. But I am afraid that taking another pop at the lefty metropolitan elite is not widening the debate, it is seeking to paint people who you do not agree with as unpatriotic.
Ha. This is not something I need to be posting about. It is widely understood that the metropolitan left is not patriotic by the only group that matters: the voting public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
If you want to broaden the debate, you'd be better off asking why people like Ken Clarke are seen as unpatriotic by the self-righteous right than worrying about what the left thinks.
Really? You think what one elderly Tory MP thinks is a more important truth than the worldview of large swathes of the urban metropolitan left?
That's the second post in a row that you have failed to mention the "elites". Standards are dropping amongst the alt-right here since the High Priestess of PB Breitbarter moved on.
@faisalislam: ...means it will be concluded under EU27 unanimity not A50 QMV. At end of A50 she says "everyone will know what future arrangement will be"
@faisalislam: ... PM tells me that this is "sensible" and "pragmatic"...
@faisalislam: ... so that's a veto not just for Spain but for everyone including Wallonia too
That's pretty obvious though, isn't it? We deal with the EU as a single body in order to sort out how we leave, then the EU finalises a trade deal with us just as it would with any other third party - some countries may even need referendums before signing up. What it also means, of course, is that there is absolutely no way on earth the deal can be done before we leave the EU. So that does either mean the cliff edge or a transitional deal.
Who frankly cares that much about a deal, it is a minority of firms that deal with the eu. About 5% of our total trade and I dont see why I as a tax payer should subsidise your firm. If we pay anything to the eu for access to the single market after leaving then I think those that trade with the eu such as your company should be the ones paying it and not dipping in to my wallet.
Does that mean we get to pay no Corporation tax on our EU-derived profits? Maybe our employees could pay less tax too? What do you reckon?
Why should you pay no tax on eu derived profits. Firms that trade with China do the only difference is they are not subsidised by british tax payers. Why should your company be subsidised? You trade with europe good for you pay the true cost of doing business there dont expect me to pay it for you
My company is not subsidised. My company is a net contributor and its employees - all of whom earn well over the minimum wage - are also paying a great deal of tax. If you do not like that, I am sorry. All that Brexit will do is lead us to reduce investments made in our UK office and increase them elsewhere. That will mean we pay less tax in the UK than we do now and will create fewer jobs in the UK.
Your company is subsidised.
To be in the single market costs us 13.5 billion a year
We do 220 billion or so exports to the eu
therefore every pound of export business to the eu costs the taxpayer 6 pence that is a subsidy. If the cost of doing business in europe is 13 billion explain why tax payers should pay it instead of the firms benefitting from it. We dont get asked as taxpayers to fork out for firms doing business elsewhere why should we for you. If that makes your trade uneconomic then tough shit
Comments
Lab losses of around 50 in England, as suggested by Rallings and Thrasher, seem reasonable to me given the nature of the seats being contested and the 2013 baseline. However Wales and Scotland should multiply that several times over.
We don't get much Wales-only polling and I think the most recent is the ITV/YouGov poll from back in January:
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-01-09/poll-shows-labour-seats-at-risk/
Is that still representative? I can't think of any great reason, either Welsh or British, why it should have dramatically changed. The figures are for Cardiff and Westminster, not local elections where independents should poll far more strongly, but the top-line figure should still worry Labour deeply. In 2012, they had a lead over both Plaid and Con of just over 20%; even in 2008, they were nearly 10% clear of Plaid and 11% ahead of Con. If the 5-6% leads for Westminster and the Senedd hold good for the local elections, Lab could see their entire 2012 gains reversed and more. In context, to keep it to 200 would be good going.
Scotland could be even worse. Labour won 394 seats in 2012, off 31% of the vote. Again, I don't think there's been any specific polling for the Scottish locals but SLab's now polling around the low-to-mid-teens for Holyrood and Westminster, which could easily translate to the loss of 60-70% of their councillors if reproduced in a month, or at least 240 losses.
Add that up and Labour could be down 500 on the night overall.
So be it. It's about bloody time someone did.
Good for her.
This is why the metropolitan Anywheres are now trying to play catch up and paint Brexit as the nasty choice. In short Brexit is neither lovely nor nasty, neither enriching or impoverishing. It is simply the democratic choice of our people. And as such should be respected.
From bad to worse :
East Mids
Con Gain Notts -> Derbyshire NOC -> Con Gain Derbyshire
West Mids
Simon losing but being ahead in the first round -> Street winning, AND being ahead in the first round.
The North
Burnham Not winning first round -> Durham going NOC -> Burnham losing -> Loss of Gorton (To anyone)
West of England
Lib Dem winning the Mayoralty -> Tory gain West of England mayoralty.
Unrealistic results which won't happen:
Con Gain Durham, Lab losing Mersey mayoralty.
Meanwhile, the sensible common ground of Britain will march on, leaving the Anywheres behind.
On this site, I can't see anyone calling for hard Brexit but plenty of trolls exaggerating, misinterpreting and booooringly repeating any quote that might help their argument in the press, while the concrete sets around their ankles
Remainers first instinct on June 24th was to stop it happening, how did you think the Tory eurosceptics would react to that? It's all noise, I'm surprised you are falling into the trap if taking notice of it
But the problem with political correctness is that it was objectionable when it was one sided.Majorities across Western democracies have decided they want to be heard. Mrs May is truly a PM for our times.
Take for example Fife where Labour hold now 32 seats out of 78 . There are 22 multi member wards with SNP fielding 45 candidates , Labour 35 , LD 24 , Con and Green 22 each . Labour even with the very bad night forecast by many will get 1 councillor elected in each ward and a few wards will still see 2 elected . They may lose half their vote share last time but only lose fewer than 1/3rd of their councillors
Fewer presents to buy, if you don't get someone something they don't care, don't need to think of what to buy, no endless TV ads (some but not a flood), and the day after the shops are full of cut-price chocolate.
And I get to repost this excellent short story I wrote explaining the meaning of Easter:
http://thaddeuswhite.weebly.com/writing-blog/sir-edric-and-the-vampire-lord
The Brexit campaign helped me with that. It was an eye opener.
You've been posting on here every 5 minutes for the last 72 hours, in various states of apoplexy and exasperation.
It can't be good for your health.
Do you think Easter Egg gate has driven Gibraltar off the front pages?
Yet again, little wonder why they're languishing in the polls.
Does Theresa May have something personal against the National Trust?
Easter is miles better than Christmas.
The person in charge of one of the Kitkat plants had a surname of Blofeld.
It amused me much when I saw it in the internal directory.
@faisalislam: ...means it will be concluded under EU27 unanimity not A50 QMV. At end of A50 she says "everyone will know what future arrangement will be"
@faisalislam: ... PM tells me that this is "sensible" and "pragmatic"...
@faisalislam: ... so that's a veto not just for Spain but for everyone including Wallonia too
Seriously, calm down dear. Brexit is being administered by the most Left Wing Tory PM since Heath.
https://twitter.com/omid9/status/849182380892008448
I'd expect Exit Terms, followed by Transitional Arrangement, and then (eventually) Trade Deal.
I see Labour has sent out a press release calling Keir Starmer the shadow secretary for exiting the UK.
They mention it elsewhere, but it probably is significant they don't have it in the title
'Cadbury, which sponsors the event, said that it wanted to appeal to non-Christians, saying: "We invite people from all faiths and none to enjoy our seasonal treats." '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/03/easter-egg-row-church-england-accuses-national-trust-airbrushing/
http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/media/press-releases/poorest-third-of-households-will-be-worse-off-from-tax-and-benefit-changes-starting-this-week-despite-a-1bn-giveaway/
In fact Wings over Scotland commissioned such a Panelbase poll and published the results on his website on 14 February this year.
His summary of the percentage support for each party from "likely voters" was
SNP 47
Con 26
Lab 14
LD 5
Green 4
UKIP 3
Other 1
Only the STV system will save the British Labour Party in Scotland, who were only 1% behind the SNP in 2012, from utter devastation. This is partly due to Tory and Labour supporters giving later preference votes to their unionist friends. It is even possible that Tory/Labour administrations may well emerge after May 2017.
I also anticipate significant gains for the Conservatives which will be trumpeted as a vote against an independence referendum. Even with the compliant unionist media pushing this line, it will not be convincing, as the Tories will be substantially outpolled by the SNP.
AND in the background is the recent opinion poll indicating that in Scotland 61 per cent believed Holyrood should decide if there should be a new independence referendum compared with 39 per cent who thought it should be Westminster.
Badly advised by Ruth Davidson, May (who suggested the local elections should be used by voters to indicate opposition to another referendum) finds herself on the wrong side of the "who decides" argument, and the longer the delay, the more the demographics favour a Yes vote next time.
To be in the single market costs us 13.5 billion a year
We do 220 billion or so exports to the eu
therefore every pound of export business to the eu costs the taxpayer 6 pence that is a subsidy. If the cost of doing business in europe is 13 billion explain why tax payers should pay it instead of the firms benefitting from it. We dont get asked as taxpayers to fork out for firms doing business elsewhere why should we for you. If that makes your trade uneconomic then tough shit