Mr. Glenn, normally I'd agree with you on the bandwagon issue, but May's Christianity (proper rather than writing it on a census every so often) is well-known.
Don't know if it has been mentioned in the UK, but David Davis apparently had a friendly and constructive dinner in Madrid on Sunday with the Spanish foreign minister.
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
I risk.
Full Eeyore mode this morning I see.
I nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, I know why the left is losing. But I am afraid that taking another pop at the lefty metropolitan elite is not widening the debate, it is seeking to paint people who you do not agree with as unpatriotic.
Ha. This is not something I need to be posting about. It is widely understood that the metropolitan left is not patriotic by the only group that matters: the voting public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost by the left in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
There is no argument. Being perceived as unpatriotic is not the same as being unpatriotic. I am a patriot. But I see this country and what is in its interests in a very different way to you. The difference between us is that I dislike your patriotism; you think I do not possess any.
I don't doubt your patriotism Mr Observer - I question whether patriotism is a valued concept amongst most of those who have directed the political and social policy of this country in the past 25 years...
As is aye the case with the Scottish Nationalists, things were going well until facts had to come along and spoil it all. For data from the respected National Centre for Social Research indicates that Scotland’s attitudes to Brexit and Europe aren’t terribly different from those of folk down south.
Ha Ha Ha , mor drivel from the whining Tory loser Daisley. You need to get out a bit more and learn some realities of Scotland, not guff from CCHQ and some losers who have had to join you in exile as they could not hack it at home.
He's quoting Professor John Curtice, Strathclyde, and as you demonstrate....
As is aye the case with the Scottish Nationalists, things were going well until facts had to come along and spoil it all.
As Alastair shows , one single non - entity MP and some list losers at Holyrood , plus 62% vote to stay in EU says you and who ever else is spouting that rubbish is not too bright or more likely just Tories. Your love affair with Curtice is touching.
So, to be clear, you are saying Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University is a 'not too bright Tory'?
I am saying what you were trying to say was rubbish. I know you are besotted by Curtice and he can do no wrong , not all of us believe all eth guff these peopel come out with. I prefer to look at what actually happens , ie Tory free zone, SNP have twice votes of any other party , 1 Tory MP. Those are facts , not some guff asking a few Tories what they imagine could happen if it was a blue moon on a wednesday in June.
Curtice was positively the last man in the country to clock that Leave had won the referendum.
That said, I do think the SNP big tent will be somewhat more difficult to sustain given their absolutely definitive position on the two referendums. Inevitably some no/leave people are going to drift, mostly to the Tories.
Spot the difference: Scottish First Minister in the US signing climate change pacts. British Prime Minister in Saudi Arabia selling weapons.
Only one of them is good for the economy?
Another one that thinks murdering babies for profit is good business, how could you beat a Tory.
Well it is good business, it's just not a moral business.
Good or not I would not support murdering women and children to make money.
It's a principled position. I imagine there's a few politicians who start out that way but when faced with the cold calculation of economic and thus political costs of reducing the industry versus unnoticed conflicts abroad, get grubby and ignore what happens with the stuff. Terrible people, the Saudi government.
As is aye the case with the Scottish Nationalists, things were going well until facts had to come along and spoil it all. For data from the respected National Centre for Social Research indicates that Scotland’s attitudes to Brexit and Europe aren’t terribly different from those of folk down south.
Ha Ha Ha , mor drivel from the whining Tory loser Daisley. You need to get out a bit more and learn some realities of Scotland, not guff from CCHQ and some losers who have had to join you in exile as they could not hack it at home.
He's quoting Professor John Curtice, Strathclyde, and as you demonstrate....
As is aye the case with the Scottish Nationalists, things were going well until facts had to come along and spoil it all.
As Alastair shows , one single non - entity MP and some list losers at Holyrood , plus 62% vote to stay in EU says you and who ever else is spouting that rubbish is not too bright or more likely just Tories. Your love affair with Curtice is touching.
So, to be clear, you are saying Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University is a 'not too bright Tory'?
some guff asking a few Tories what they imagine could happen
So when Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University writes that the survey by:
NatCen/ScotCen Social Research have carried out. It is based on interviews conducted between early February and early March with 859 people who were first interviewed for the 2015 or 2016 Scottish Social Attitudes surveys, the respondents to which (unlike most polls) are chosen entirely at random.
He's telling lies, and it was really just 'a few Tories'?
Mr. Glenn, normally I'd agree with you on the bandwagon issue, but May's Christianity (proper rather than writing it on a census every so often) is well-known.
So she'd support not tying in such an important date with the frivolousness of an egg hunt?
As is aye the case with the Scottish Nationalists, things were going well until facts had to come along and spoil it all. For data from the respected National Centre for Social Research indicates that Scotland’s attitudes to Brexit and Europe aren’t terribly different from those of folk down south.
Ha Ha Ha , mor drivel from the whining Tory loser Daisley. You need to get out a bit more and learn some realities of Scotland, not guff from CCHQ and some losers who have had to join you in exile as they could not hack it at home.
He's quoting Professor John Curtice, Strathclyde, and as you demonstrate....
As is aye the case with the Scottish Nationalists, things were going well until facts had to come along and spoil it all.
As Alastair shows , one single non - entity MP and some list losers at Holyrood , plus 62% vote to stay in EU says you and who ever else is spouting that rubbish is not too bright or more likely just Tories. Your love affair with Curtice is touching.
So, to be clear, you are saying Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University is a 'not too bright Tory'?
I am saying what you were trying to say was rubbish. I know you are besotted by Curtice and he can do no wrong , not all of us believe all eth guff these peopel come out with. I prefer to look at what actually happens , ie Tory free zone, SNP have twice votes of any other party , 1 Tory MP. Those are facts , not some guff asking a few Tories what they imagine could happen if it was a blue moon on a wednesday in June.
Curtice was positively the last man in the country to clock that Leave had won the referendum.
That said, I do think the SNP big tent will be somewhat more difficult to sustain given their absolutely definitive position on the two referendums. Inevitably some no-leave people are going to drift, mostly to the Tories.
Ian, yes but eth guff on here that the SNP are not popular is just unbelievable. Carlotta is besotted in her hatred of the SNP and Scotland, I have yet to ever see a balanced post on either from her. Typical exiled convert who has to ape the establishment she joined by being more zealot establishment than them . PS: As long as they hold it together till the YES vote I will be happy.
These numbers are surely wildly out. In Scotland Labour won 394 seats on 31.39% of the vote in 2012. There is, on current polling, a very strong probability that they will get less than 20% of the vote this time, possibly much less.
There are 1223 Councillors in Scotland. 20% of the vote, on a system that is largely proportional, gives them 244, a loss of 150. In Scotland alone. It is possible that Labour's vote will remain more efficient but this is at the margins. Last time 31.39% of first preferences got them 32.2% of the seats. The reverse is actually more likely in that the electoral system punishes smaller parties. Last time the Tories got 9.4% of the seats on 13.27% of the vote.
Mike speculates that Labour might lose Glasgow. I would say that is absolutely nailed on. In fact I do not expect them to retain outright control of a single Scottish Council and they will lose control of others such as Fife where they are currently the biggest single party.
So unless Lord Heyward is anticipating some net gains for Labour in England (and I do think they will pick up some UKIP seats) his numbers are, well, optimistic from a Labour perspective.
Looking at the sorts of projections that Mark Senior is making, which seem plausible, Labour would face big losses in Durham , Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire. Winning back some seats from UKIP won't come close to outweighing that.
They did better than expected last year, albeit still badly.
Their position has deteriorated hugely since then.
Don't know if it has been mentioned in the UK, but David Davis apparently had a friendly and constructive dinner in Madrid on Sunday with the Spanish foreign minister.
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
I risk.
Full Eeyore mode this morning I see.
I nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, I know why the left is losing. But I am afraid that taking another pop at the lefty metropolitan elite is not widening the debate, it is seeking to paint people who you do not agree with as unpatriotic.
Ha. This is not something I need to be posting about. It is widely understood that the metropolitan left is not patriotic by the only group that matters: the voting public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost by the left in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
There is no argument. Being perceived as unpatriotic is not the same as being unpatriotic. I am a patriot. But I see this country and what is in its interests in a very different way to you. The difference between us is that I dislike your patriotism; you think I do not possess any.
I don't doubt your patriotism Mr Observer - I question whether patriotism is a valued concept amongst most of those who have directed the political and social policy of this country in the past 25 years...
Again - you are questioning the patriotism of people whose political views and decision-making you do not like.
Don't know if it has been mentioned in the UK, but David Davis apparently had a friendly and constructive dinner in Madrid on Sunday with the Spanish foreign minister.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
I am afraid that patriotism does not equate to waving the flag while seeking to dump all over millions of people who live under it and whispering threats at foreigners. I am not ashamed of patriotism, but I am utterly ashamed of your version of it In fact, it revolts me. It makes the country that I was born in and hold very dear look utterly disreputable, while weakening its interests and even putting its continued existence at risk.
Full Eeyore mode this morning I see.
I try to make widen a political debate with observation on failed policies of internationalism - which fails those people that I care about, and that I truly believe you do too, because of huge competition at the lower end of the wage scale - and you just shake your head and say that you don't like it because you think it makes us look nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, I know why the left is losing. But I am afraid that taking another pop at the lefty metropolitan elite is not widening the debate, it is seeking to paint people who you do not agree with as unpatriotic.
Ha. This is not something I need to be posting about. It is widely understood that the metropolitan left is not patriotic by the only group that matters: the voting public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost by the left in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
Your kind of patriotism, the continually ramping it up whilst calling anyone unwilling to climb to the next level unpatriotic, is a very dangerous road to tread.
It also has no relevance to the reasons why I do love my country - pride in history, landscape and culture, these are also by snd large the patriotic foundation of our neighbours. Your patriotism is just about using symbols to rabble rouse, arrogance the driver and ignorance the tool.
As we're discussing crucifixion, an odd thing: The Blackadder DVD boxshot includes A Blackadder Christmas Carol, but the joke about crucifying a dog (a dog playing Jesus in a nativity play) has been cut out.
However, it's included in the Blackadder audiobook version. Peculiar.
I try to make widen a political debate with observation on failed policies of internationalism - which fails those people that I care about, and that I truly believe you do too, because of huge competition at the lower end of the wage scale - and you just shake your head and say that you don't like it because you think it makes us look nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, I know why the left is losing. But I am afraid that taking another pop at the lefty metropolitan elite is not widening the debate, it is seeking to paint people who you do not agree with as unpatriotic.
Ha. This is not something I need to be posting about. It is widely understood that the metropolitan left is not patriotic by the only group that matters: the voting public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
If you want to broaden the debate, you'd be better off asking why people like Ken Clarke are seen as unpatriotic by the self-righteous right than worrying about what the left thinks.
Really? You think what one elderly Tory MP thinks is a more important truth than the worldview of large swathes of the urban metropolitan left?
'People like...' He is not the only pro-European on the right, but he's the most distinguished who's still in the House of Commons.
In fact being pro-Europe was the mainstream Conservative position for decades. This has now been overturned by a sustained campaign from radicals with a blinkered view of sovereignty that is focussed elusively on the position of the Westminster parliament.
It will be interesting to see if the business world maintains its normal overwhelming preference for the Tories, if Brexit doesn't turn out to be the unalloyed success that its acolytes have been predicting?
Mr. Glenn, normally I'd agree with you on the bandwagon issue, but May's Christianity (proper rather than writing it on a census every so often) is well-known.
May's Christianity does, however, permit her to implement cuts to benefits paid to bereaved families while maintaining free bus travel and winter energy payments to wealthy pensioners.
As is aye the case with the Scottish Nationalists, things were going well until facts had to come along and spoil it all. For data from the respected National Centre for Social Research indicates that Scotland’s attitudes to Brexit and Europe aren’t terribly different from those of folk down south.
Ha Ha Ha , mor drivel from the whining Tory loser Daisley. You need to get out a bit more and learn some realities of Scotland, not guff from CCHQ and some losers who have had to join you in exile as they could not hack it at home.
He's quoting Professor John Curtice, Strathclyde, and as you demonstrate....
As is aye the case with the Scottish Nationalists, things were going well until facts had to come along and spoil it all.
As Alastair shows , one single non - entity MP and some list losers at Holyrood , plus 62% vote to stay in EU says you and who ever else is spouting that rubbish is not too bright or more likely just Tories. Your love affair with Curtice is touching.
So, to be clear, you are saying Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University is a 'not too bright Tory'?
I am saying what you were trying to say was rubbish. I know you are besotted by Curtice and he can do no wrong , not all of us believe all eth guff these peopel come out with. I prefer to look at what actually happens , ie Tory free zone, SNP have twice votes of any other party , 1 Tory MP. Those are facts , not some guff asking a few Tories what they imagine could happen if it was a blue moon on a wednesday in June.
Curtice was positively the last man in the country to clock that Leave had won the referendum.
That said, I do think the SNP big tent will be somewhat more difficult to sustain given their absolutely definitive position on the two referendums. Inevitably some no-leave people are going to drift, mostly to the Tories.
Ian, yes but eth guff on here that the SNP are not popular is just unbelievable. Carlotta is besotted in her hatred of the SNP and Scotland, I have yet to ever see a balanced post on either from her. Typical exiled convert who has to ape the establishment she joined by being more zealot establishment than them . PS: As long as they hold it together till the YES vote I will be happy.
Don't know if it has been mentioned in the UK, but David Davis apparently had a friendly and constructive dinner in Madrid on Sunday with the Spanish foreign minister.
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
"...is good" is a stark and unrealistic value judgement, Yes, patriotism has its good side, and was pretty important in the days when older men needed to persuade younger men to offer up their lives in the national interest. But it would be blinkered not to see the potential downsn ounces.
If however, the choice is Brexit, plus income per head being 20% higher in 2030 than today, vs no Brexit plus income per head being 25% higher, Brexit wins because people choose politics over economics.
As indeed they did.
However those comparisons are trite, since like Brexit they ignore the rest of the world. Of course no-one would mind being 20% better off if their neighbours and colleagues are also 20% better off. But achieving a smaller improvement in living standards, compounded year after year, than your neighbours is another thing entirely. What prompted our EC membership application in the first place was the feeling that the late60s/e70s UK was being left behind by the economic strides being made on the continent at the time. If that position slowly reoccurs the colour of the passport will be academic, as far fewer people will be able to afford to use one.
Well, Les Trentes Glorieuse aren't coming back. Nor are double-digit inflation, over mighty trade unions, and the generation who keenly felt the loss of Empire are no longer around. So, I think most people are pretty content with this country being a prosperous, fairly powerful country that avoids political integration with the EU.
Mr. Glenn, normally I'd agree with you on the bandwagon issue, but May's Christianity (proper rather than writing it on a census every so often) is well-known.
May's Christianity does, however, permit her to implement cuts to benefits paid to bereaved families while maintaining free bus travel and winter energy payments to wealthy pensioners.
These numbers are surely wildly out. In Scotland Labour won 394 seats on 31.39% of the vote in 2012. There is, on current polling, a very strong probability that they will get less than 20% of the vote this time, possibly much less.
There are 1223 Councillors in Scotland. 20% of the vote, on a system that is largely proportional, gives them 244, a loss of 150. In Scotland alone. It is possible that Labour's vote will remain more efficient but this is at the margins. Last time 31.39% of first preferences got them 32.2% of the seats. The reverse is actually more likely in that the electoral system punishes smaller parties. Last time the Tories got 9.4% of the seats on 13.27% of the vote.
Mike speculates that Labour might lose Glasgow. I would say that is absolutely nailed on. In fact I do not expect them to retain outright control of a single Scottish Council and they will lose control of others such as Fife where they are currently the biggest single party.
So unless Lord Heyward is anticipating some net gains for Labour in England (and I do think they will pick up some UKIP seats) his numbers are, well, optimistic from a Labour perspective.
There does seem to be an unwillingness by some experts to believe the disaster which might hit Labour. A disaster which would be unprecedented for a party in Opposition.
So for example we have R&T predicting a Conservative NEV lead of 1% whereas the opinion polls have it as 15%+.
Now the Conservatives wont do as well as the opinion polls suggest but I see no evidence for there to be such a difference between them and the local elections results.
If anything, it is Labour which has the history of underperforming its opinion poll ratings at local elections:
Don't know if it has been mentioned in the UK, but David Davis apparently had a friendly and constructive dinner in Madrid on Sunday with the Spanish foreign minister.
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
"...is good" is a stark and unrealistic value judgement, Yes, patriotism has its good side, and was pretty important in the days when older men needed to persuade younger men to offer up their lives in the national interest. But it would be blinkered not to see the potential downside of patriotism, as the last resort of the scoundrel.
Brexit never would have got near a majority if people had thought it would mean a smaller economy, esta-visas to travel abroad, more expensive flights and travel insurance, potentially even the break-up of the UK, just to get a blue passport, a pint, and being able to buy food weighed in ounces.
You call me out for value judgements then dismiss those who care tremendously about political sovereignty as nostalgic tokenisation?
And you wonder why the Lib Dems are on 10%....
I don't remember dismissing anyone. Like Mr Farron I too am patriotic; there is lots about our country and its history about which to be immensely proud, that doesn't involve either misplaced militarism or futile symbolism.
In the 21st century world, influence matters a lot more than sovereignty (just as, in the modern workplace, effective collaboration now matters as much as individual effectiveness). IMO the young have cottoned onto this a lot faster than us oldies, which explains a lot.
Even if that's true, if you have no influence it is logical to regain sovereignty.
I try to make widen a political debate with observation on failed policies of internationalism - which fails those people that I care about, and that I truly believe you do too, because of huge competition at the lower end of the wage scale - and you just shake your head and say that you don't like it because you think it makes us look nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, I know why the left is losing. But I am afraid that taking another pop at the lefty metropolitan elite is not widening the debate, it is seeking to paint people who you do not agree with as unpatriotic.
Ha. This is not something I need to be posting about. It is widely understood that the metropolitan left is not patriotic by the only group that matters: the voting public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
If you want to broaden the debate, you'd be better off asking why people like Ken Clarke are seen as unpatriotic by the self-righteous right than worrying about what the left thinks.
Really? You think what one elderly Tory MP thinks is a more important truth than the worldview of large swathes of the urban metropolitan left?
'People like...' He is not the only pro-European on the right, but he's the most distinguished who's still in the House of Commons.
In fact being pro-Europe was the mainstream Conservative position for decades. This has now been overturned by a sustained campaign from radicals with a blinkered view of sovereignty that is focussed elusively on the position of the Westminster parliament.
It will be interesting to see if the business world maintains its normal overwhelming preference for the Tories, if Brexit doesn't turn out to be the unalloyed success that its acolytes have been predicting?
If voting matches the opinion polls Labour is likely to lose a similar number this year.
2013 was an unwind from the 2009 local elections though, 2009 elections took place with the background of a resurgent Tory party on the verge of government following a haphazard and incompetent looking labour prime minister.
As is aye the case with the Scottish Nationalists, things were going well until facts had to come along and spoil it all. For data from the respected National Centre for Social Research indicates that Scotland’s attitudes to Brexit and Europe aren’t terribly different from those of folk down south.
I try to make widen a political debate with observation on failed policies of internationalism - which fails those people that I care about, and that I truly believe you do too, because of huge competition at the lower end of the wage scale - and you just shake your head and say that you don't like it because you think it makes us look nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, I know why the left is losing. But I am afraid that taking another pop at the lefty metropolitan elite is not widening the debate, it is seeking to paint people who you do not agree with as unpatriotic.
Ha. This is not something I need to be posting about. It is widely understood that the metropolitan left is not patriotic by the only group that matters: the voting public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
If you want to broaden the debate, you'd be better off asking why people like Ken Clarke are seen as unpatriotic by the self-righteous right than worrying about what the left thinks.
Really? You think what one elderly Tory MP thinks is a more important truth than the worldview of large swathes of the urban metropolitan left?
'People like...' He is not the only pro-European on the right, but he's the most distinguished who's still in the House of Commons.
In fact being pro-Europe was the mainstream Conservative position for decades. This has now been overturned by a sustained campaign from radicals with a blinkered view of sovereignty that is focussed elusively on the position of the Westminster parliament.
It will be interesting to see if the business world maintains its normal overwhelming preference for the Tories, if Brexit doesn't turn out to be the unalloyed success that its acolytes have been predicting?
May can afford to lose a few to the LDs and still trounce Corbyn Labour
She wants to spend more time on her constituency. Her constituency is Erith & Thamesmead, Labour majority 22.4%. Think on that.
Erith is very much an inner London like constituency but it borders parts of Bexley which Labour used to win or come close in. If they lost in Erith the deepness of the s***e they are in would surely drown Mr. Corbyn.
The views of frontline NHS workers will not be made public for at least two years after the Scottish Government confirmed the existing staff survey format has been scrapped. Results of the last staff questionnaire for 2016 were supposed to be published in December but no information regarding how beleaguered NHS staff feel about their working environment will be made available until January 2018 at the earliest.
The last staff survey published in December 2015 found that 46 per cent of the 60,681 workers who took part said they were unable to do their jobs properly because they were overworked.
As is aye the case with the Scottish Nationalists, things were going well until facts had to come along and spoil it all. For data from the respected National Centre for Social Research indicates that Scotland’s attitudes to Brexit and Europe aren’t terribly different from those of folk down south.
Ha Ha Ha , mor drivel from the whining Tory loser Daisley. You need to get out a bit more and learn some realities of Scotland, not guff from CCHQ and some losers who have had to join you in exile as they could not hack it at home.
He's quoting Professor John Curtice, Strathclyde, and as you demonstrate....
As is aye the case with the Scottish Nationalists, things were going well until facts had to come along and spoil it all.
As Alastair shows , one single non - entity MP and some list losers at Holyrood , plus 62% vote to stay in EU says you and who ever else is spouting that rubbish is not too bright or more likely just Tories. Your love affair with Curtice is touching.
From the safe distance of a couple of thousand kilometres away, I had assumed that stuff like Simon Heffer's "let's restore the Imperial system of measurement" was an April Fool. Apparently he wasn't the only joker: what with this "singing the King of Spain's beard" nonsense from Michael Howard. Now, midweek it seems like these absurdities are actually being taken seriously. Is the UK having some kind of massive nervous btreakdown? As an ex-Brit, should I now be thinking af renouncing my UK citizenship on the grounds that the lunatics have taken over the asylum and a total meltdown of stupidity is on its way? If rationality has been so abandoned for rage, then the UK is going to be crippled. I don't buy the Dawkins "nasty backwater" guff, but if I believe the press (and to
You have less than 18 months to do the deal, you guys have got to be crisp and precise in your negotiations... And at the moment it is like dealing with an acid crazed version of the Honey Monster. You still have not got a full team of negotiators. What is this? Amateur hour at the circus? FFS UK, pull your socks up and get real!
Have the likes of Michael Howard got no ability to see what an embarrassment they are?
The Right in this country treat its citizens with total contempt. They believe that they can get away with anything if they wave the Union Jack. The swivel-eyed Hard Brexit brigade are clearly seeking to build a narrative that will allow the Tories to walk away from the Brexit talks, blame duplicitous foreigners, invoke the spirit of Churchill and dump all over the working people of Britain.
It's the Colonel Blimpshness that's so embarrassing. By the end of these negotiations our reputation in the wider world is going to be trashed. Like the 80's when football fans backed by the Red Tops went through their chauvinistic phase and we became international pariahs. I sense a second coming.
Laughable.
The 5th largest economy and strongest legal system in the world. I think we'll cope.
Strong legal systems are not ones in which judges are described as enemies of the people while those in government stand by.
This notion of judicial infallibility really is tiresome. Are they not fallen, flawed people like the rest of us?
Perhaps you'd be happier if the press only attacked the judges that agreed with the government's position.
FPT while I completely disagree with @RichardNabavi about the rights and wrongs of the opening spats of negotiations, I completely agree with him about the likely political consequences of no deal. Indeed, it might well be what Theresa May means by "no deal is better than a bad deal". The political incentives for her to opt for no deal are strong.
Today's Sun front page makes it absolutely clear what the Tory Hard Brexit brigade's strategy is: wave the Union Jack and hope the plebs don't notice they have been totally shafted. It was ever thus. With Corbyn leading Labour it is a strategy that is likely to work. But at some stage the low wage, low job security, pared to the bones public services society the Tories have always wanted to create but have never had the guts to put in front of the electorate will come back to bite them spectacularly hard; and will almost inevitably lead to the break-up of the country that Tories claim to care about so much.
May and Hammond are actually economically left of Cameron and Osborne Scotland would still vote No in virtually every poll
Mr. Glenn, normally I'd agree with you on the bandwagon issue, but May's Christianity (proper rather than writing it on a census every so often) is well-known.
May's Christianity does, however, permit her to implement cuts to benefits paid to bereaved families while maintaining free bus travel and winter energy payments to wealthy pensioners.
Like Jesus said "it's only winning that counts"
Not to mention "Man's greatest joy is to slaughter his enemies, to drive them before him, and to listen to the Lamentations of the women."
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
As Easter is almost certainly an appropriated Pagan Spring/Rebirth festival, I agree. Question of whether to use a Roman, Norse, Celtic or original name for it though.
Your new profile pic is particularly apposite today
all these post-Brexit entertainments brought to mind the classic Ealing comedy Passport to Pimlico, during which the discovery of various ancient documents leads part of London to declare itself independent from Britain because it is, by virtue of an ancient treaty that was never formally revoked, part of the Dukedom of Burgundy.
I thought of this when it was revealed that voters in Scotland want much the same thing from the Brexit negotiations as voters in England and elsewhere in the UK. Scotland might have voted to remain and England to leave the EU but, now that the leaving is happening, there is a striking convergence of views. The Scottish government has demanded a “differentiated” Brexit deal for Scotland but, inconveniently, the Scottish people are neither interested in such a deal nor outraged by the fact it won’t happen.
Mr. Glenn, normally I'd agree with you on the bandwagon issue, but May's Christianity (proper rather than writing it on a census every so often) is well-known.
May's Christianity does, however, permit her to implement cuts to benefits paid to bereaved families while maintaining free bus travel and winter energy payments to wealthy pensioners.
Like Jesus said "it's only winning that counts"
Not to mention "Man's greatest joy is to slaughter his enemies, to drive them before him, and to listen to the Lamentations of the women."
I'd agree with the first two clauses but I've never greatly enjoyed female lamentation.
From the safe distance of a couple of thousand kilometres away, I had assumed that stuff like Simon Heffer's "let's restore the Imperial system of measurement" was an April Fool. Apparently he wasn't the only joker: what with this "singing the King of Spain's beard" nonsense from Michael Howard. Now, midweek it seems like these absurdities are actually being taken seriously. Is the UK having some kind of massive nervous btreakdown? As an ex-Brit, should I now be thinking af renouncing my UK citizenship on the grounds that the lunatics have taken over the asylum and a total meltdown of stupidity is on its way? If rationality has been so abandoned for rage, then the UK is going to be crippled. I don't buy the Dawkins "nasty backwater" guff, but if I believe the press (and to
You have less than 18 months to do the deal, you guys have got to be crisp and precise in your negotiations... And at the moment it is like dealing with an acid crazed version of the Honey Monster. You still have not got a full team of negotiators. What is this? Amateur hour at the circus? FFS UK, pull your socks up and get real!
Have the likes of Michael Howard got no ability to see what an embarrassment they are?
The Right in this country treat its citizens with total contempt. They believe that they can get away with anything if they wave the Union Jack. The swivel-eyed Hard Brexit brigade are clearly seeking to build a narrative that will allow the Tories to walk away from the Brexit talks, blame duplicitous foreigners, invoke the spirit of Churchill and dump all over the working people of Britain.
It's the Colonel Blimpshness that's so embarrassing. By the end of these negotiations our reputation in the wider world is going to be trashed. Like the 80's when football fans backed by the Red Tops went through their chauvinistic phase and we became international pariahs. I sense a second coming.
Laughable.
The 5th largest economy and strongest legal system in the world. I think we'll cope.
Strong legal systems are not ones in which judges are described as enemies of the people while those in government stand by.
This notion of judicial infallibility really is tiresome. Are they not fallen, flawed people like the rest of us?
Perhaps you'd be happier if the press only attacked the judges that agreed with the government's position.
I agree we are all flawed. Does that make us all enemies of the people?
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
As Easter is almost certainly an appropriated Pagan Spring/Rebirth festival, I agree. Question of whether to use a Roman, Norse, Celtic or original name for it though.
We only celebrate it as a Christian festival, imagine if they had done this to products related to Ramadan or Eid? Muslims brook no nonsense
I have a feeling that the Lib Dems and Conservatives could do better, and Labour worse, than the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.
Yup.
In the case of UKIP seats the best starting point is probably to avoid fiddling about with swings and just look at who won them before ukip came along. If there was a betting market in ukip seats it would be a clear sell.
From the safe distance of a couple of thousand kilometres away, I had assumed that stuff like Simon Heffer's "let's restore the Imperial system of measurement" was an April Fool. Apparently he wasn't the only joker: what with this "singing the King of Spain's beard" nonsense from Michael Howard. Now, midweek it seems like these absurdities are actually being taken seriously. Is the UK having some kind of massive nervous btreakdown? As an ex-Brit, should I now be thinking rage, then the UK is going You have less than 18 months to do the deal, you guys have got to be crisp and precise in your negotiations... And at the moment it is like dealing with an acid crazed version of the Honey Monster. You still have not got a full team of negotiators. What is this? Amateur hour at the circus? FFS UK, pull your socks up and get real!
Have the likes of Michael Howard got no ability to see what an embarrassment they are?
It's the Colonel Blimpshness that's so embarrassing. By the end of these negotiations our reputation in the wider world is going to be trashed. Like the 80's when football fans backed by the Red Tops went through their chauvinistic phase and we became international pariahs. I sense a second coming.
Laughable.
The 5th largest economy and strongest legal system in the world. I think we'll cope.
Strong legal systems are not ones in which judges are described as enemies of the people while those in government stand by.
This notion of judicial infallibility really is tiresome. Are they not fallen, flawed people like the rest of us?
Perhaps you'd be happier if the press only attacked the judges that agreed with the government's position.
Judges are not infallible. Their judgements can be criticised as wrong, particularly at the earlier stages when appeals are coming on that basis. People were attacking though on the basis of being involved at all, when the actual government legal argument did not contest it was a justiciable question, and for overturning a democratic vote, when their judgement had nothing to do with the politics even though those bringing the case did, and as has been amply demonstrated it did not delay the declaration of article 50 in any way. May openly warned the judges in the press, so reported the telegraph, that was disgraceful
The two options are not judicial infallibility or enemy of the people attacks. It is absurd to paint the situation so.
Every other religious festival uses its proper name, so should Easter
As Easter is almost certainly an appropriated Pagan Spring/Rebirth festival, I agree. Question of whether to use a Roman, Norse, Celtic or original name for it though.
"Old English ēastre ; of Germanic origin and related to German Ostern and east; perhaps from Ēastre, the name of a goddess associated with spring."
"Bede says Anglo-Saxon Christians adopted her name and many of the celebratory practices for their Mass of Christ's resurrection. Almost all neighboring languages use a variant of Latin Pascha to name this holiday (see paschal). Easter egg attested by 1825, earlier pace egg (1610s)."
Those are google hits for "easter etymology", can't vouch for them.
But anyway in light of all those Easter egg hunts in the New Testament I think we can agree that the festival has been fully assimilated by Christianity.
FPT while I completely disagree with @RichardNabavi about the rights and wrongs of the opening spats of negotiations, I completely agree with him about the likely political consequences of no deal. Indeed, it might well be what Theresa May means by "no deal is better than a bad deal". The political incentives for her to opt for no deal are strong.
Today's Sun front page makes it absolutely clear what the Tory Hard Brexit brigade's strategy is: wave the Union Jack and hope the plebs don't notice they have been totally shafted. It was ever thus. With Corbyn leading Labour it is a strategy that is likely to work. But at some stage the low wage, low job security, pared to the bones public services society the Tories have always wanted to create but have never had the guts to put in front of the electorate will come back to bite them spectacularly hard; and will almost inevitably lead to the break-up of the country that Tories claim to care about so much.
May and Hammond are actually economically left of Cameron and Osborne Scotland would still vote No in virtually every poll
Walking away from the Brexit talks without a deal and creating an offshore, low tax, low wage, low regulation state in which public services are pared to the bone would not be something that anyone to the left of Cameron or Osborne would do. If you are saying May's threats on this are empty, then she is clearly not a very good negotiator.
These numbers are surely wildly out. In Scotland Labour won 394 seats on 31.39% of the vote in 2012. There is, on current polling, a very strong probability that they will get less than 20% of the vote this time, possibly much less.
There are 1223 Councillors in Scotland. 20% of the vote, on a system that is largely proportional, gives them 244, a loss of 150. In Scotland alone. It is possible that Labour's vote will remain more efficient but this is at the margins. Last time 31.39% of first preferences got them 32.2% of the seats. The reverse is actually more likely in that the electoral system punishes smaller parties. Last time the Tories got 9.4% of the seats on 13.27% of the vote.
Mike speculates that Labour might lose Glasgow. I would say that is absolutely nailed on. In fact I do not expect them to retain outright control of a single Scottish Council and they will lose control of others such as Fife where they are currently the biggest single party.
So unless Lord Heyward is anticipating some net gains for Labour in England (and I do think they will pick up some UKIP seats) his numbers are, well, optimistic from a Labour perspective.
Yeah, barring STV interactions that I am too stupid to understand I do not see how Labour retains control of Glasgow.
@steve_hawkes: PM's words about the National Trust are the strongest I've ever seen from her - could do with the same over Gibraltar
@ZoraSuleman: I think Theresa May speaking out about the National Trust (Easter) Egg hunt - is actually the quickest she's reacted to any news story
Our PM is going on a squirrel hunt. The more Easter on the front pages the less coverage there will be of her attempts to build trade with a fascist theocracy in order to compensate for the loss of trade resulting from our withdrawal from an organisation in which being a democracy is a pre-requisite for membership.
The views of frontline NHS workers will not be made public for at least two years after the Scottish Government confirmed the existing staff survey format has been scrapped. Results of the last staff questionnaire for 2016 were supposed to be published in December but no information regarding how beleaguered NHS staff feel about their working environment will be made available until January 2018 at the earliest.
The last staff survey published in December 2015 found that 46 per cent of the 60,681 workers who took part said they were unable to do their jobs properly because they were overworked.
If voting matches the opinion polls Labour is likely to lose a similar number this year.
2013 was an unwind from the 2009 local elections though, 2009 elections took place with the background of a resurgent Tory party on the verge of government following a haphazard and incompetent looking labour prime minister.
It's weird that people get agitated about the egg hunt thing.
Surely the connection between hiding chocolate in a garden and the crucifixion and resurrection of Christ are obvious.
Typical left thinking response.. destroy everything that has gone before
I'm surprised the Left aren't more up in arms by what's clearly an American multi-national's plot to strip British Christian religious significance from a traditional British past-time at the British National Trust - the brand Mondelez International (HQ Deerfield Ill) sells is 'Cadbury creme egg' - they don't want anyone, be it the National Trust or the British Prime Minister mucking it up by inserting 'Easter' into the name - hence the 'Cadbury Egg Hunt'.....
If voting matches the opinion polls Labour is likely to lose a similar number this year.
2013 was an unwind from the 2009 local elections though, 2009 elections took place with the background of a resurgent Tory party on the verge of government following a haphazard and incompetent looking labour prime minister.
Is it that bad for labour?
Quite possibly worse.
For the sake of the country Labour need to be slaughtered. Perhaps then the union bods will do something about Corbyn.
He's quoting Professor John Curtice, Strathclyde, and as you demonstrate....
As is aye the case with the Scottish Nationalists, things were going well until facts had to come along and spoil it all.
As Alastair shows , one single non - entity MP and some list losers at Holyrood , plus 62% vote to stay in EU says you and who ever else is spouting that rubbish is not too bright or more likely just Tories. Your love affair with Curtice is touching.
So, to be clear, you are saying Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University is a 'not too bright Tory'?
I am saying what you were trying to say was rubbish. I know you are besotted by Curtice and he can do no wrong , not all of us believe all eth guff these peopel come out with. I prefer to look at what actually happens , ie Tory free zone, SNP have twice votes of any other party , 1 Tory MP. Those are facts , not some guff asking a few Tories what they imagine could happen if it was a blue moon on a wednesday in June.
Curtice was positively the last man in the country to clock that Leave had won the referendum.
That said, I do think the SNP big tent will be somewhat more difficult to sustain given their absolutely definitive position on the two referendums. Inevitably some no-leave people are going to drift, mostly to the Tories.
Ian, yes but eth guff on here that the SNP are not popular is just unbelievable. Carlotta is besotted in her hatred of the SNP and Scotland, I have yet to ever see a balanced post on either from her. Typical exiled convert who has to ape the establishment she joined by being more zealot establishment than them . PS: As long as they hold it together till the YES vote I will be happy.
Stay happy, MalcontentX. It's your saving grace.
Malc is however right that Sturgeon has, until now, enjoyed a level of domestic support that is outstanding for a political leader. My Edinburgh friend, who has never voted SNP (and was indyref no), thinks she is wonderful. We perhaps don't see this because Sturgeon is operating under a fair voting system whereas the UK Tories benefit from the bias of FPTnP. If the two voting systems were equivalent, in either direction, the difference would be clear.
It's weird that people get agitated about the egg hunt thing.
Surely the connection between hiding chocolate in a garden and the crucifixion and resurrection of Christ are obvious.
Typical left thinking response.. destroy everything that has gone before
I'm surprised the Left aren't more up in arms by what's clearly an American multi-national's plot to strip British Christian religious significance from a traditional British past-time at the British National Trust - the brand Mondelez International (HQ Deerfield Ill) sells is 'Cadbury creme egg' - they don't want anyone, be it the National Trust or the British Prime Minister mucking it up by inserting 'Easter' into the name - hence the 'Cadbury Egg Hunt'.....
Don't know if it has been mentioned in the UK, but David Davis apparently had a friendly and constructive dinner in Madrid on Sunday with the Spanish foreign minister.
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
I am afraid that patriotism does not equate to waving the flag while seeking to dump all over millions of people who live under it and whispering threats at foreigners. I am not ashamed of patriotism, but I am utterly ashamed of your version of it In fact, it revolts me. It makes the country that I was born in and hold very dear look utterly disreputable, while weakening its interests and even putting its continued existence at risk.
Hear, hear. Luckily we still have enough shreds of democracy left that we can disagree with Mortimer without being called traitors. Although possibly only just.
It's weird that people get agitated about the egg hunt thing.
Surely the connection between hiding chocolate in a garden and the crucifixion and resurrection of Christ are obvious.
Typical left thinking response.. destroy everything that has gone before
I'm surprised the Left aren't more up in arms by what's clearly an American multi-national's plot to strip British Christian religious significance from a traditional British past-time at the British National Trust - the brand Mondelez International (HQ Deerfield Ill) sells is 'Cadbury creme egg' - they don't want anyone, be it the National Trust or the British Prime Minister mucking it up by inserting 'Easter' into the name - hence the 'Cadbury Egg Hunt'.....
It's marketing, so what?
Should we not refer to the Coca Cola van at Christmas? What's the big deal?
I have a feeling that the Lib Dems and Conservatives could do better, and Labour worse, than the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.
Yup.
In the case of UKIP seats the best starting point is probably to avoid fiddling about with swings and just look at who won them before ukip came along. If there was a betting market in ukip seats it would be a clear sell.
I think Labour won't recover in working class Divisions it lost to UKIP, such is their unpopularity with these voters. If UKIP lose such seats, it will probably be the Conservatives who gain.
These numbers are surely wildly out. In Scotland Labour won 394 seats on 31.39% of the vote in 2012. There is, on current polling, a very strong probability that they will get less than 20% of the vote this time, possibly much less.
There are 1223 Councillors in Scotland. 20% of the vote, on a system that is largely proportional, gives them 244, a loss of 150. In Scotland alone. It is possible that Labour's vote will remain more efficient but this is at the margins. Last time 31.39% of first preferences got them 32.2% of the seats. The reverse is actually more likely in that the electoral system punishes smaller parties. Last time the Tories got 9.4% of the seats on 13.27% of the vote.
Mike speculates that Labour might lose Glasgow. I would say that is absolutely nailed on. In fact I do not expect them to retain outright control of a single Scottish Council and they will lose control of others such as Fife where they are currently the biggest single party.
So unless Lord Heyward is anticipating some net gains for Labour in England (and I do think they will pick up some UKIP seats) his numbers are, well, optimistic from a Labour perspective.
Yeah, barring STV interactions that I am too stupid to understand I do not see how Labour retains control of Glasgow.
Not least because the combination of a growing tribal antipathy between SNP and Labour, and Tory/LibDem antipathy to Corbyn may well create some sort of anti-Labour consensus as to where the second and third preferences go. It is hard to see a big constituency of people for whom ScotLab is even a second choice right now.
If voting matches the opinion polls Labour is likely to lose a similar number this year.
2013 was an unwind from the 2009 local elections though, 2009 elections took place with the background of a resurgent Tory party on the verge of government following a haphazard and incompetent looking labour prime minister.
Is it that bad for labour?
The current polling gap is at least as bad for Labour as 2009. During April 2009, Labour varied between 7 and 19 points behind. That 7 (from YouGov on 4/4) was probably an outlier - YouGov didn't report a Con lead of less than 10% in March or less than 16% in April otherwise - but ICM and Mori reported Con leads as low as 10% and 13% respectively. By contrast, the Tories now haven't recorded a lead of less than 13% since the beginning of February, and 11 of the last 14 polls published have had Con leads of 16% or higher.
Also FPT, as one of the formerly undecideds that @isam mentions sceptically, it was precisely because I foresaw that the type of Leave that would be obtained would be dominated by loonies and reactionaries pandering to 1950s nostalgics that I opted for Remain. My fears have been abundantly borne out.
If that's true, then that suggests that - at heart - you also don't have much time for the EU, and you would have been theoretically open to a mature form of Leave that fitted more comfortably with your progressive values.
Don't know if it has been mentioned in the UK, but David Davis apparently had a friendly and constructive dinner in Madrid on Sunday with the Spanish foreign minister.
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
I risk.
Full Eeyore mode this morning I see.
I nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, I know why the left is losing. But I am afraid that taking another pop at the lefty metropolitan elite is not widening the debate, it is seeking to paint people who you do not agree with as unpatriotic.
Ha. This is not something I need to be posting about. It is widely understood that the metropolitan left is not patriotic by the only group that matters: the voting public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost by the left in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
There is no argument. Being perceived as unpatriotic is not the same as being unpatriotic. I am a patriot. But I see this country and what is in its interests in a very different way to you. The difference between us is that I dislike your patriotism; you think I do not possess any.
I don't doubt your patriotism Mr Observer - I question whether patriotism is a valued concept amongst most of those who have directed the political and social policy of this country in the past 25 years...
Again - you are questioning the patriotism of people whose political views and decision-making you do not like.
Because they are frequently unpatriotic in their views and their decision making....
Strikes me that the Somewheres vs Anywheres division is bang on. And that the Anywheres don't like it up 'em!!!
It's weird that people get agitated about the egg hunt thing.
Surely the connection between hiding chocolate in a garden and the crucifixion and resurrection of Christ are obvious.
Typical left thinking response.. destroy everything that has gone before
I'm surprised the Left aren't more up in arms by what's clearly an American multi-national's plot to strip British Christian religious significance from a traditional British past-time at the British National Trust - the brand Mondelez International (HQ Deerfield Ill) sells is 'Cadbury creme egg' - they don't want anyone, be it the National Trust or the British Prime Minister mucking it up by inserting 'Easter' into the name - hence the 'Cadbury Egg Hunt'.....
It's marketing, so what?
Should we not refer to the Coca Cola van at Christmas? What's the big deal?
It is an enormosquirrel - but its the media that's making it - following the lead set by the Archbishop of York, not the PM.....
Don't know if it has been mentioned in the UK, but David Davis apparently had a friendly and constructive dinner in Madrid on Sunday with the Spanish foreign minister.
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
I risk.
Full Eeyore mode this morning I see.
I nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, I know why the left is losing. But I am afraid that taking another pop at the lefty metropolitan elite is not widening the debate, it is seeking to paint people who you do not agree with as unpatriotic.
Ha. This is not something I need to be posting about. It is widely understood that the metropolitan left is not patriotic by the only group that matters: the voting public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost by the left in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
There is no argument. Being perceived as unpatriotic is not the same as being unpatriotic. I am a patriot. But I see this country and what is in its interests in a very different way to you. The difference between us is that I dislike your patriotism; you think I do not possess any.
I don't doubt your patriotism Mr Observer - I question whether patriotism is a valued concept amongst most of those who have directed the political and social policy of this country in the past 25 years...
Again - you are questioning the patriotism of people whose political views and decision-making you do not like.
Because they are frequently unpatriotic in their views and their decision making....
Strikes me that the Somewheres vs Anywheres division is bang on. And that the Anywheres don't like it up 'em!!!
FPT while I completely disagree with @RichardNabavi about the rights and wrongs of the opening spats of negotiations, I completely agree with him about the likely political consequences of no deal. Indeed, it might well be what Theresa May means by "no deal is better than a bad deal". The political incentives for her to opt for no deal are strong.
Today's Sun front page makes it absolutely clear what the Tory Hard Brexit brigade's strategy is: wave the Union Jack and hope the plebs don't notice they have been totally shafted. It was ever thus. With Corbyn leading Labour it is a strategy that is likely to work. But at some stage the low wage, low job security, pared to the bones public services society the Tories have always wanted to create but have never had the guts to put in front of the electorate will come back to bite them spectacularly hard; and will almost inevitably lead to the break-up of the country that Tories claim to care about so much.
May and Hammond are actually economically left of Cameron and Osborne Scotland would still vote No in virtually every poll
Walking away from the Brexit talks without a deal and creating an offshore, low tax, low wage, low regulation state in which public services are pared to the bone would not be something that anyone to the left of Cameron or Osborne would do. If you are saying May's threats on this are empty, then she is clearly not a very good negotiator.
If May's threats on this are empty, yet she's managed to convince people they're serious, then she is clearly an incredibly good negotiator.
If people believe your threats on something are empty, that is when you're not a very good negotiator.
I don't know which is worse, Theresa May/the right trying to dictate Cadbury's marketing policy or the hysterical reaction in some quarters (the left) to the David Moyes incident.
If voting matches the opinion polls Labour is likely to lose a similar number this year.
2013 was an unwind from the 2009 local elections though, 2009 elections took place with the background of a resurgent Tory party on the verge of government following a haphazard and incompetent looking labour prime minister.
Is it that bad for labour?
The current polling gap is at least as bad for Labour as 2009. During April 2009, Labour varied between 7 and 19 points behind. That 7 (from YouGov on 4/4) was probably an outlier - YouGov didn't report a Con lead of less than 10% in March or less than 16% in April otherwise - but ICM and Mori reported Con leads as low as 10% and 13% respectively. By contrast, the Tories now haven't recorded a lead of less than 13% since the beginning of February, and 11 of the last 14 polls published have had Con leads of 16% or higher.
I suppose the big difference back then is that the Lib Dems were performing much better and recorded a NEV of 28% having been polling in the high teens. Having the rest split into Lib Dems and Ukip might mean Labour aren't hurt quite so badly.
If voting matches the opinion polls Labour is likely to lose a similar number this year.
2013 was an unwind from the 2009 local elections though, 2009 elections took place with the background of a resurgent Tory party on the verge of government following a haphazard and incompetent looking labour prime minister.
Is it that bad for labour?
Comparing the opinion polls now to their equivalents in 2009
2009 ICM Con 44 Lab 31 YouGov Con 41 Lab 31 ComRes Con 41 Lab 30 Mori Con 42 Lab 32
2017 ICM Con 43 Lab 25 YouGov Con 43 Lab 25 ComRes Con 42 Lab 25 Mori Con 43 Lab 30
The average Conservative lead is 6% higher now than it was at the equivalent point before the 2009 local elections.
If voting matches the opinion polls Labour is likely to lose a similar number this year.
2013 was an unwind from the 2009 local elections though, 2009 elections took place with the background of a resurgent Tory party on the verge of government following a haphazard and incompetent looking labour prime minister.
Is it that bad for labour?
The current polling gap is at least as bad for Labour as 2009. During April 2009, Labour varied between 7 and 19 points behind. That 7 (from YouGov on 4/4) was probably an outlier - YouGov didn't report a Con lead of less than 10% in March or less than 16% in April otherwise - but ICM and Mori reported Con leads as low as 10% and 13% respectively. By contrast, the Tories now haven't recorded a lead of less than 13% since the beginning of February, and 11 of the last 14 polls published have had Con leads of 16% or higher.
I would have expected Labour to outperform its poll rating, but following Copeland and Stoke, I now doubt they will.
I don't know which is worse, Theresa May/the right trying to dictate Cadbury's marketing policy or the hysterical reaction in some quarters (the left) to the David Moyes incident.
Probably the Easter Egg fiasco. That really is something of nothing and just giving them free advertising.
The Moyes situation is interesting. Not because I think he's a misogynist, but because it shows what managers do to reporters when they don't like what they're being asked. Sometimes reporters ask stupid questions, but what she asked was reasonable and she wouldn't have been doing her job had she not asked it. Moyes should have just answered and moved on.
I don't know which is worse, Theresa May/the right trying to dictate Cadbury's marketing policy or the hysterical reaction in some quarters (the left) to the David Moyes incident.
May is demonstrating the right's love of political correctness.
If voting matches the opinion polls Labour is likely to lose a similar number this year.
2013 was an unwind from the 2009 local elections though, 2009 elections took place with the background of a resurgent Tory party on the verge of government following a haphazard and incompetent looking labour prime minister.
Is it that bad for labour?
Comparing the opinion polls now to their equivalents in 2009
2009 ICM Con 44 Lab 31 YouGov Con 41 Lab 31 ComRes Con 41 Lab 30 Mori Con 42 Lab 32
2017 ICM Con 43 Lab 25 YouGov Con 43 Lab 25 ComRes Con 42 Lab 25 Mori Con 43 Lab 30
The average Conservative lead is 6% higher now than it was at the equivalent point before the 2009 local elections.
The differential turnout at local elections has traditionally crucified the party in power... will that not be as much a factor this time round?
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
I risk.
Full Eeyore mode this morning I see.
I nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, I know why the left is losing. But I am afraid that taking another pop at the lefty metropolitan elite is not widening the debate, it is seeking to paint people who you do not agree with as unpatriotic.
Ha. This is not something I need to be posting about. It is widely understood that the metropolitan left is not patriotic by the only group that matters: the voting public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost by the left in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
There is no argument. Being perceived as unpatriotic is not the same as being unpatriotic. I am a patriot. But I see this country and what is in its interests in a very different way to you. The difference between us is that I dislike your patriotism; you think I do not possess any.
I don't doubt your patriotism Mr Observer - I question whether patriotism is a valued concept amongst most of those who have directed the political and social policy of this country in the past 25 years...
Again - you are questioning the patriotism of people whose political views and decision-making you do not like.
Because they are frequently unpatriotic in their views and their decision making....
Strikes me that the Somewheres vs Anywheres division is bang on. And that the Anywheres don't like it up 'em!!!
These numbers are surely wildly out. In Scotland Labour won 394 seats on 31.39% of the vote in 2012. There is, on current polling, a very strong probability that they will get less than 20% of the vote this time, possibly much less.
There are 1223 Councillors in Scotland. 20% of the vote, on a system that is largely proportional, gives them 244, a loss of 150. In Scotland alone. It is possible that Labour's vote will remain more efficient but this is at the margins. Last time 31.39% of first preferences got them 32.2% of the seats. The reverse is actually more likely in that the electoral system punishes smaller parties. Last time the Tories got 9.4% of the seats on 13.27% of the vote.
Mike speculates that Labour might lose Glasgow. I would say that is absolutely nailed on. In fact I do not expect them to retain outright control of a single Scottish Council and they will lose control of others such as Fife where they are currently the biggest single party.
So unless Lord Heyward is anticipating some net gains for Labour in England (and I do think they will pick up some UKIP seats) his numbers are, well, optimistic from a Labour perspective.
Yeah, barring STV interactions that I am too stupid to understand I do not see how Labour retains control of Glasgow.
Not least because the combination of a growing tribal antipathy between SNP and Labour
I'm not sure if there's any growth left in that particular antipathy!
Don't know if it has been mentioned in the UK, but David Davis apparently had a friendly and constructive dinner in Madrid on Sunday with the Spanish foreign minister.
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
"...is good" is a stark and unrealistic value judgement, Yes, patriotism has its good side, and was pretty important in the days when older men needed to persuade younger men to offer up their lives in the national interest. But it would be blinkered not to see the potential downside of patriotism, as the last resort of the scoundrel.
Brexit never would have got near a majority if people had thought it would mean a smaller economy, esta-visas to travel abroad, more expensive flights and travel insurance, potentially even the break-up of the UK, just to get a blue passport, a pint, and being able to buy food weighed in ounces.
If however, the choice is Brexit, plus income per head being 20% higher in 2030 than today, vs no Brexit plus income per head being 25% higher, Brexit wins because people choose politics over economics.
That's right.
But, I agree with Mervyn King. Brexit is irrelevant to our national prosperity in the long-term.
Don't know if it has been mentioned in the UK, but David Davis apparently had a friendly and constructive dinner in Madrid on Sunday with the Spanish foreign minister.
One of the most interesting developments in European politics in the last two years is how successful parties have realised that patriotism is good. In France, Holland and here the patriotic right/centre are making gains/limiting losses.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
I risk.
Full Eeyore mode this morning I see.
I nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Nope, I know why the left is losing. But I am afraid that taking another pop at the lefty metropolitan elite is not widening the debate, it is seeking to paint people who you do not agree with as unpatriotic.
Ha. This is not something I need to be posting about. It is widely understood that the metropolitan left is not patriotic by the only group that matters: the voting public.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost by the left in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
There isnot possess any.
I don't doubt your patriotism Mr Observer - I question whether patriotism is a valued concept amongst most of those who have directed the political and social policy of this country in the past 25 years...
Again - you are questioning the patriotism of people whose political views and decision-making you do not like.
Because they are frequently unpatriotic in their views and their decision making....
Strikes me that the Somewheres vs Anywheres division is bang on. And that the Anywheres don't like it up 'em!!!
Yep - people whose views you do not like are not patriotic. As I said, your patriotism revolts me.
It's weird that people get agitated about the egg hunt thing.
Surely the connection between hiding chocolate in a garden and the crucifixion and resurrection of Christ are obvious.
Typical left thinking response.. destroy everything that has gone before
I'm surprised the Left aren't more up in arms by what's clearly an American multi-national's plot to strip British Christian religious significance from a traditional British past-time at the British National Trust - the brand Mondelez International (HQ Deerfield Ill) sells is 'Cadbury creme egg' - they don't want anyone, be it the National Trust or the British Prime Minister mucking it up by inserting 'Easter' into the name - hence the 'Cadbury Egg Hunt'.....
It's marketing, so what?
Should we not refer to the Coca Cola van at Christmas? What's the big deal?
It is an enormosquirrel - but its the media that's making it - following the lead set by the Archbishop of York, not the PM.....
Comments
Well, not the whole US - just California....
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/848836822180532224
Hasn't she got a day job? You know, schools, hospitals, police, that sort of thing?
If so they are seriously underestimating likely Labour losses.
What we have this year are the English county council elections and the Scottish and Welsh local elections.
When these were lasted contested in 2013 (England) and 2012 (Scotland and Wales) Labour made the following gains:
England +291
Scotland +46
Wales +237
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_local_elections,_2012
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2012
If voting matches the opinion polls Labour is likely to lose a similar number this year.
That said, I do think the SNP big tent will be somewhat more difficult to sustain given their absolutely definitive position on the two referendums. Inevitably some no/leave people are going to drift, mostly to the Tories.
NatCen/ScotCen Social Research have carried out. It is based on interviews conducted between early February and early March with 859 people who were first interviewed for the 2015 or 2016 Scottish Social Attitudes surveys, the respondents to which (unlike most polls) are chosen entirely at random.
He's telling lies, and it was really just 'a few Tories'?
PS: As long as they hold it together till the YES vote I will be happy.
It also has no relevance to the reasons why I do love my country - pride in history, landscape and culture, these are also by snd large the patriotic foundation of our neighbours. Your patriotism is just about using symbols to rabble rouse, arrogance the driver and ignorance the tool.
Who are you proposing? Right now I think I'd vote for Juncker to be nailed up.
The Blackadder DVD boxshot includes A Blackadder Christmas Carol, but the joke about crucifying a dog (a dog playing Jesus in a nativity play) has been cut out.
However, it's included in the Blackadder audiobook version. Peculiar.
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-04-04/cadbury-spitting-on-grave-of-religious-founder-by-not-having-easter-in-egg-hunt-title/
So for example we have R&T predicting a Conservative NEV lead of 1% whereas the opinion polls have it as 15%+.
Now the Conservatives wont do as well as the opinion polls suggest but I see no evidence for there to be such a difference between them and the local elections results.
If anything, it is Labour which has the history of underperforming its opinion poll ratings at local elections:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/communicate
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/mori
Is it that bad for labour?
The views of frontline NHS workers will not be made public for at least two years after the Scottish Government confirmed the existing staff survey format has been scrapped. Results of the last staff questionnaire for 2016 were supposed to be published in December but no information regarding how beleaguered NHS staff feel about their working environment will be made available until January 2018 at the earliest.
The last staff survey published in December 2015 found that 46 per cent of the 60,681 workers who took part said they were unable to do their jobs properly because they were overworked.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/snp-accused-of-attempting-to-silence-nhs-staff-over-survey-1-4411141
Perhaps you'd be happier if the press only attacked the judges that agreed with the government's position.
https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/features/easter-events-for-families
Surely the connection between hiding chocolate in a garden and the crucifixion and resurrection of Christ are obvious.
Your new profile pic is particularly apposite today
all these post-Brexit entertainments brought to mind the classic Ealing comedy Passport to Pimlico, during which the discovery of various ancient documents leads part of London to declare itself independent from Britain because it is, by virtue of an ancient treaty that was never formally revoked, part of the Dukedom of Burgundy.
I thought of this when it was revealed that voters in Scotland want much the same thing from the Brexit negotiations as voters in England and elsewhere in the UK. Scotland might have voted to remain and England to leave the EU but, now that the leaving is happening, there is a striking convergence of views. The Scottish government has demanded a “differentiated” Brexit deal for Scotland but, inconveniently, the Scottish people are neither interested in such a deal nor outraged by the fact it won’t happen.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/we-re-more-like-the-english-than-ever-before-wfbwzqwzh
@ZoraSuleman: I think Theresa May speaking out about the National Trust (Easter) Egg hunt - is actually the quickest she's reacted to any news story
In the case of UKIP seats the best starting point is probably to avoid fiddling about with swings and just look at who won them before ukip came along. If there was a betting market in ukip seats it would be a clear sell.
The two options are not judicial infallibility or enemy of the people attacks. It is absurd to paint the situation so.
Take a respected institution
Gut it
Wear it as a skin suit
and then demand respect
"Bede says Anglo-Saxon Christians adopted her name and many of the celebratory practices for their Mass of Christ's resurrection. Almost all neighboring languages use a variant of Latin Pascha to name this holiday (see paschal). Easter egg attested by 1825, earlier pace egg (1610s)."
Those are google hits for "easter etymology", can't vouch for them.
But anyway in light of all those Easter egg hunts in the New Testament I think we can agree that the festival has been fully assimilated by Christianity.
Luckily we still have enough shreds of democracy left that we can disagree with Mortimer without being called traitors. Although possibly only just.
https://twitter.com/familymanc/status/849168807310630912
Should we not refer to the Coca Cola van at Christmas? What's the big deal?
https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/features/easter-events-for-families
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/849168210134011904
Archbishop of York, John Sentamu
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-04-04/cadbury-spitting-on-grave-of-religious-founder-by-not-having-easter-in-egg-hunt-title/
Strikes me that the Somewheres vs Anywheres division is bang on. And that the Anywheres don't like it up 'em!!!
If people believe your threats on something are empty, that is when you're not a very good negotiator.
2009
ICM Con 44 Lab 31
YouGov Con 41 Lab 31
ComRes Con 41 Lab 30
Mori Con 42 Lab 32
2017
ICM Con 43 Lab 25
YouGov Con 43 Lab 25
ComRes Con 42 Lab 25
Mori Con 43 Lab 30
The average Conservative lead is 6% higher now than it was at the equivalent point before the 2009 local elections.
The Moyes situation is interesting. Not because I think he's a misogynist, but because it shows what managers do to reporters when they don't like what they're being asked. Sometimes reporters ask stupid questions, but what she asked was reasonable and she wouldn't have been doing her job had she not asked it. Moyes should have just answered and moved on.
But, I agree with Mervyn King. Brexit is irrelevant to our national prosperity in the long-term.