I would expect the Tories to do quite a bit better than 31%. Rallings & Thrasher appear to be predicting a swing of just 2.5% from Lab to Con since 2013. I just don't believe it - very surprised if it is not at least double that!
Meanwhile the governing party in Scotland is threatening to hold an illegal plebiscite. What happens if the other parties boycott it? Will the governing party declare the result of a plebiscite of its own supporters - plus some clinging-to-the-past "let's stop climate change" Green nutters - to be legitimate? What happens if the Orange Order turn up at the illegal polling stations with pickaxe handles to try to prevent such a flagrant breach of the Scotland Act?
Everything seems to be going the Kremlin's way.
That is one scenario where we could learn from Spain. In 2015 the Spanish government arrested the Catalan President for holding an illegal independence referendum and put him on trial. He was fined and banned from public office for 2 years
Lol.
Was it only a few short weeks ago that PB Yoons were comforting each other that Sturgeon was bluffing and definitely wasn't going to ask for another referendum which she knew she'd lose? Now it's put her on trial and ban her from politics.
Not shiteing it at all, oh no.
Most polls show NO would still win an OFFICIAL referendum which Scots only want after a Brexit deal comcluded
Sturgeon is cunning though. Even a post Brexit indyref means that May will have to be very attentive to Scottish positions, or there would be a backlash post Brexit. Not to forget that Ruth Davidson is a prominent remainer too.
Whatever the timing, Scotland will be heard as a result.
Are you suggesting that Sturgeon could be plotting a 'cunning stunt' with her referendum plans. Just be careful how you say it
Michael "he likes race horses" Howard says Theresa May would "go to war" to "protect" Gibraltar.
Yet there is zero chance of a Spanish attack on Gibraltar. And it is Britain, not Spain, that is planning to make the border into not only an external EU one, but one across which there is no single market and no customs union [*], against the wishes of a large majority of the Gibraltar population.
Do people get what is happening here?
It also appears to me that there is not going to be a happy-clappy resolution to the Irish border question either, despite all the "we know how to solve problems" attitude that is being projected.
(*) The only other such borders for thousands of miles are around Ceuta and Melilla, which are surrounded by Colditz-style fences.
I understand that Howard was trying to be helpful to Theresa here, but I'm not sure that Leavers' using the language of WAR!!!! in Europe is at all wise. This whole business demands cool heads, or at least the appearance of them.
Some media outlets picked up on the comments and interpreted them as meaning, "Theresa May would go to war to defend Gibraltar".
This is a little uncharitable to the former home secretary and Conservative party leader, he didn't say that.
Media outlets contain a significantly large collection of people gagging for rip-roaring headlines.
What was once the sole preserve of ‘tabloids’ has now been adopted by the broadsheets. Rip-roaring headlines sell papers and generate on-line clicks, it was ever thus.
Rallings & Thrasher figure imply just a 1.5% swing from Lab To Con since last year when Labour had a 1% lead based on NEV. I do not find that very credible!
Thought the bus was behind a F1 car today. A corner in the road revealed the front of the car - it was a 3-wheeler! Never seen a car like it before.
Good afternoon.
You must be even younger than I thought you were.
Seen lots of 3-wheelers (my uncle had one - he had to lift the bonnet to kick-start the motorbike engine inside; family had to walk up significant hills) but never one with a rear view that looked like a F1 vehicle.
Possibly a Bond Bug, one of the most 1970s things about the 1970s:
Some Rejoiners are claiming that because he didn't say the words "Brexit will lead to WWIII" he didn't say that Brexit would lead to WWIII.
It's just as silly (or sensible) as saying NATO has kept the peace in Europe since the Second World War and we should be wary of leaving it [because you might accidentally imply WWIII would break out]. Both organisations have had an effect in building confidence in peace. You can legitimately point out what it was like before and say they are doing useful jobs. It doesn't mean that War would break out if either organisation were disbanded or if we stopped being members, nor, for that matter, that either organisation will absolutely prevent war.
The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar.
I read that and imagined him staggering around, can of Stella in hand, tie half mast, bellowing in a slur, "Come on then! I'll take the lot of ya!" outside a Tapas Bar.
I'm tempted to stick £50 on Spurs to win the title.
I've had a little bet on them.
If Manchester City beat Chelsea in midweek, Spurs could easily be within one point with a superior goal difference before Chelsea kick off next Saturday evening. The odds will tumble from 11s.
Thought the bus was behind a F1 car today. A corner in the road revealed the front of the car - it was a 3-wheeler! Never seen a car like it before.
Good afternoon.
You must be even younger than I thought you were.
Seen lots of 3-wheelers (my uncle had one - he had to lift the bonnet to kick-start the motorbike engine inside; family had to walk up significant hills) but never one with a rear view that looked like a F1 vehicle.
Possibly a Bond Bug, one of the most 1970s things about the 1970s:
Michael "he likes race horses" Howard says Theresa May would "go to war" to "protect" Gibraltar.
Yet there is zero chance of a Spanish attack on Gibraltar. And it is Britain, not Spain, that is planning to make the border into not only an external EU one, but one across which there is no single market and no customs union [*], against the wishes of a large majority of the Gibraltar population.
Do people get what is happening here?
It also appears to me that there is not going to be a happy-clappy resolution to the Irish border question either, despite all the "we know how to solve problems" attitude that is being projected.
(*) The only other such borders for thousands of miles are around Ceuta and Melilla, which are surrounded by Colditz-style fences.
I understand that Howard was trying to be helpful to Theresa here, but I'm not sure that Leavers' using the language of WAR!!!! in Europe is at all wise. This whole business demands cool heads, or at least the appearance of them.
Some media outlets picked up on the comments and interpreted them as meaning, "Theresa May would go to war to defend Gibraltar".
This is a little uncharitable to the former home secretary and Conservative party leader, he didn't say that.
Media outlets contain a significantly large collection of people gagging for rip-roaring headlines.
What was once the sole preserve of ‘tabloids’ has now been adopted by the broadsheets. Rip-roaring headlines sell papers and generate on-line clicks, it was ever thus.
Unfortunately so, and it's probably only going to get worse. One of the biggest challenges for all involved in the negotiation process will be ignoring as much as possible what's said outside the room.
2013 actual vote share in the English elections up this year
Con 34.5% Lab 21.3% UKIP 20.2% LDem 13,7% Green 3.4% BNP 0.3% Ind/Others 6.6%
and 2009 actual vote shares
Con 43.5% LDem 24.7% Lab 13.5% UKIP 4.6% Green 4.4% BNP 2.5% Ind/Others 6.8%
My forecast for this year
Con 41 LDem 21 Lab 18 UKIP 9 Green 4 Ind/Others 7
Those numbers seem very plausible. They imply NEV 's of about 33% for the Conservatives, and 26% for Labour, a shocking result for the latter. But, Scotland will be worse.
Some Rejoiners are claiming that because he didn't say the words "Brexit will lead to WWIII" he didn't say that Brexit would lead to WWIII.
It's just as silly (or sensible) as saying NATO has kept the peace in Europe since the Second World War and we should be wary of leaving it [because you might accidentally imply WWIII would break out]. Both organisations have had an effect in building confidence in peace. You can legitimately point out what it was like before and say they are doing useful jobs. It doesn't mean that War would break out if either organisation were disbanded or if we stopped being members, nor, for that matter, that either organisation will absolutely prevent war.
It's a perfectly fair point, and Cameron made it fairly. What astonishes me is that anyone would not understand, or understand but pretend not to, that Cameron's words are in substance a WWIII warning.
Also, how does Sturgeon call a Scotish General election?
Would the SNP improve on their position?
It would depend entirely on turnout. If it was same as last time then no the SNP position wouldn't improve and could well significantly decay in the face of tactical unionist voting.
Some Rejoiners are claiming that because he didn't say the words "Brexit will lead to WWIII" he didn't say that Brexit would lead to WWIII.
It's just as silly (or sensible) as saying NATO has kept the peace in Europe since the Second World War and we should be wary of leaving it [because you might accidentally imply WWIII would break out]. Both organisations have had an effect in building confidence in peace. You can legitimately point out what it was like before and say they are doing useful jobs. It doesn't mean that War would break out if either organisation were disbanded or if we stopped being members, nor, for that matter, that either organisation will absolutely prevent war.
It's a perfectly fair point, and Cameron made it fairly. What astonishes me is that anyone would not understand, or understand but pretend not to, that Cameron's words are in substance a WWIII warning.
On a betting site of all places, people should understand that a warning about the risk of something is not the same as a prediction that it will happen.
Thought the bus was behind a F1 car today. A corner in the road revealed the front of the car - it was a 3-wheeler! Never seen a car like it before.
Good afternoon.
You must be even younger than I thought you were.
Seen lots of 3-wheelers (my uncle had one - he had to lift the bonnet to kick-start the motorbike engine inside; family had to walk up significant hills) but never one with a rear view that looked like a F1 vehicle.
Possibly a Bond Bug, one of the most 1970s things about the 1970s:
The main point of a three wheeler was the ability to drive it on a motorcycle license, 3 wheels and less than 450kg as I recall. From 1982 the Motorcycle tests got harder so there are not many now with a M/C but not PLG licence. Two wheels at the front makes for better cornering. Reliants were horrible at going round corners.
Some Rejoiners are claiming that because he didn't say the words "Brexit will lead to WWIII" he didn't say that Brexit would lead to WWIII.
It's just as silly (or sensible) as saying NATO has kept the peace in Europe since the Second World War and we should be wary of leaving it [because you might accidentally imply WWIII would break out]. Both organisations have had an effect in building confidence in peace. You can legitimately point out what it was like before and say they are doing useful jobs. It doesn't mean that War would break out if either organisation were disbanded or if we stopped being members, nor, for that matter, that either organisation will absolutely prevent war.
It's a perfectly fair point, and Cameron made it fairly. What astonishes me is that anyone would not understand, or understand but pretend not to, that Cameron's words are in substance a WWIII warning.
On a betting site of all places, people should understand that a warning about the risk of something is not the same as a prediction that it will happen.
Not a terribly strong point, as that is exactly what a warning is.
Thought the bus was behind a F1 car today. A corner in the road revealed the front of the car - it was a 3-wheeler! Never seen a car like it before.
Good afternoon.
You must be even younger than I thought you were.
Seen lots of 3-wheelers (my uncle had one - he had to lift the bonnet to kick-start the motorbike engine inside; family had to walk up significant hills) but never one with a rear view that looked like a F1 vehicle.
Possibly a Bond Bug, one of the most 1970s things about the 1970s:
The main point of a three wheeler was the ability to drive it on a motorcycle license, 3 wheels and less than 450kg as I recall. From 1982 the Motorcycle tests got harder so there are not many now with a M/C but not PLG licence. Two wheels at the front makes for better cornering. Reliants were horrible at going round corners.
Reliants were horrible at going round corners
As proved conclusively by Jeremy Clarkson on Top Gear.
Thought the bus was behind a F1 car today. A corner in the road revealed the front of the car - it was a 3-wheeler! Never seen a car like it before.
Good afternoon.
You must be even younger than I thought you were.
Seen lots of 3-wheelers (my uncle had one - he had to lift the bonnet to kick-start the motorbike engine inside; family had to walk up significant hills) but never one with a rear view that looked like a F1 vehicle.
That wasn't a Frisky was it?
That was the one where you started the engine backwards to reverse the car.
Thought the bus was behind a F1 car today. A corner in the road revealed the front of the car - it was a 3-wheeler! Never seen a car like it before.
Good afternoon.
You must be even younger than I thought you were.
Seen lots of 3-wheelers (my uncle had one - he had to lift the bonnet to kick-start the motorbike engine inside; family had to walk up significant hills) but never one with a rear view that looked like a F1 vehicle.
Possibly a Bond Bug, one of the most 1970s things about the 1970s:
The main point of a three wheeler was the ability to drive it on a motorcycle license, 3 wheels and less than 450kg as I recall. From 1982 the Motorcycle tests got harder so there are not many now with a M/C but not PLG licence. Two wheels at the front makes for better cornering. Reliants were horrible at going round corners.
The ok ones seem to start at around £20k, for that you could get a shit hot sportsbike (or a decent car for that matter). I suppose in our recreational First World, all tastes and sub variations are catered for.
UK gets ever more dire. Telegraph now speculating on who will win the war Britain's Navy is 'far weaker' than it was during the Falklands but could still 'cripple' Spain
Thought the bus was behind a F1 car today. A corner in the road revealed the front of the car - it was a 3-wheeler! Never seen a car like it before.
Good afternoon.
You must be even younger than I thought you were.
Seen lots of 3-wheelers (my uncle had one - he had to lift the bonnet to kick-start the motorbike engine inside; family had to walk up significant hills) but never one with a rear view that looked like a F1 vehicle.
That wasn't a Frisky was it?
That was the one where you started the engine backwards to reverse the car.
UK gets ever more dire. Telegraph now speculating on who will win the war Britain's Navy is 'far weaker' than it was during the Falklands but could still 'cripple' Spain
It's just maneuvering to get more defence funding.
UK gets ever more dire. Telegraph now speculating on who will win the war Britain's Navy is 'far weaker' than it was during the Falklands but could still 'cripple' Spain
Far weaker because of Tory cuts before and after the Falklands. Remember John Nott walking out on Robin Day?
Would post a picture from my office of this morning's glorious pastoral scene in MD, but I don't know how. Stunning, also. Indeed, almost like the British countryside.
UK gets ever more dire. Telegraph now speculating on who will win the war Britain's Navy is 'far weaker' than it was during the Falklands but could still 'cripple' Spain
It's just maneuvering to get more defence funding.
We could make a bridge with the Admirals we have and walk across.
UK gets ever more dire. Telegraph now speculating on who will win the war Britain's Navy is 'far weaker' than it was during the Falklands but could still 'cripple' Spain
I think they are overdosing on repeats of Dads Army. I read that the average age of BBC 2 viewers is 61.What is the average age and IQ now of Telegraph readers.
UK gets ever more dire. Telegraph now speculating on who will win the war Britain's Navy is 'far weaker' than it was during the Falklands but could still 'cripple' Spain
It's just maneuvering to get more defence funding.
We could make a bridge with the Admirals we have and walk across.
I thought you'd be pleased.. this one was retired.
UK gets ever more dire. Telegraph now speculating on who will win the war Britain's Navy is 'far weaker' than it was during the Falklands but could still 'cripple' Spain
Far weaker because of Tory cuts before and after the Falklands. Remember John Nott walking out on Robin Day?
Must be close to the stage where you cannot call it a navy.
UK gets ever more dire. Telegraph now speculating on who will win the war Britain's Navy is 'far weaker' than it was during the Falklands but could still 'cripple' Spain
Rejoice! Brexit may be dragging us into a war with Spain, but blue passports are to return. Hip hip hooray! (It's going to cost half a billion quid, but so what?)
UK gets ever more dire. Telegraph now speculating on who will win the war Britain's Navy is 'far weaker' than it was during the Falklands but could still 'cripple' Spain
Rejoice! Brexit may be dragging us into a war with Spain, but blue passports are to return. Hip hip hooray! (It's going to cost half a billion quid, but so what?)
UK gets ever more dire. Telegraph now speculating on who will win the war Britain's Navy is 'far weaker' than it was during the Falklands but could still 'cripple' Spain
Rejoice! Brexit may be dragging us into a war with Spain, but blue passports are to return. Hip hip hooray! (It's going to cost half a billion quid, but so what?)
UK gets ever more dire. Telegraph now speculating on who will win the war Britain's Navy is 'far weaker' than it was during the Falklands but could still 'cripple' Spain
Rejoice! Brexit may be dragging us into a war with Spain, but blue passports are to return. Hip hip hooray! (It's going to cost half a billion quid, but so what?)
Mr. Glenn, worth noting we learnt hugely valuable things from ethically dubious experiments.
In the 1950s, babies were routinely physically separated from their mothers. A very dodgy experiment, which involved deliberately terrifying babies, was conducted to see if they'd flee to an image of their mother, or a soft and cuddly toy.
They went for the toy, and policy was changed to encourage tactile parent-child interaction.
That change has affected millions of children to positive effect. Was it worth being rather horrendous to a few hundred (I think that was the number of subjects involved, not entirely sure)?
Mind you, not all experiments work well. In the 1970s, the US tried to get psychopaths to open up through group therapy, and mend them that way. They tried this, it seemed to work, and the psychopaths were released. Unfortunately, it seemed they had connected. But not in a good way. They'd swapped tips on evading the police and committing crimes, and the authorities had quite the time of it trying to catch them.
UK gets ever more dire. Telegraph now speculating on who will win the war Britain's Navy is 'far weaker' than it was during the Falklands but could still 'cripple' Spain
Rejoice! Brexit may be dragging us into a war with Spain, but blue passports are to return. Hip hip hooray! (It's going to cost half a billion quid, but so what?)
i think it was clarified that the cost is no more than usual. Poor reporting from the Telegraph (par, these days)
To be fair, if given a chance the civil service could probably spend two billion pounds changing the font size of one character on the fifth page of a form that is used by four people a year ...
Can the Supreme Court issue an injunction to prevent the Scottish Government from holding or abetting an unauthorised referendum in breach of the Scotland Act?
The main point of a three wheeler was the ability to drive it on a motorcycle license, 3 wheels and less than 450kg as I recall. From 1982 the Motorcycle tests got harder so there are not many now with a M/C but not PLG licence. Two wheels at the front makes for better cornering. Reliants were horrible at going round corners.
Surely the prime case of the tax tail waving the dog. Cars come in all sorts of shapes, sizes and prices, but the one basic requirement of all them is four wheels.
One thing I notice watching the boat race is that they always used to point out the landmarks - Harrods Furniture depository, Fulham ground, Barnes railway bridge etc. They don't do any of that now.
Can the Supreme Court issue an injunction to prevent the Scottish Government from holding or abetting an unauthorised referendum in breach of the Scotland Act?
Look, let's get past the shock of Dupont-Aignan winning the French presidency before we entertain hypothetical scenarios.
To pick up on an earlier comment, it does look as though the Coalition losses from 2013 are going to unwind quite dramatically on May 4th. As Ishmael (I think) said in response to my previous, the big losses suffered by the LDs were to the Conservatives in 2009 (including Devon and Somerset) but these were masked by LD gains from Labour.
The Con-LD battle on May 4th will be interesting though one of a number on that day.
I think the 2018 locals and especially the London contests will be critical for Labour and Corbyn. Labour has currently over 1000 London Councillors - they could suffer big numerical losses and only lose a few Councils (Croydon, Redbridge, Hammersmith & Fulham) but the loss of councillors would be significant in a heartland area.
Can the Supreme Court issue an injunction to prevent the Scottish Government from holding or abetting an unauthorised referendum in breach of the Scotland Act?
Look, let's get past the shock of Dupont-Aignan winning the French presidency before we entertain hypothetical scenarios.
It was a question about jurisdiction. In any case, this is a betting site and therefore about hypothetical scenarios.
Can the Supreme Court issue an injunction to prevent the Scottish Government from holding or abetting an unauthorised referendum in breach of the Scotland Act?
Won't get that far, the orange order,boy scouts, women's institute and the RSPB will take action to prevent it.
One thing I notice watching the boat race is that they always used to point out the landmarks - Harrods Furniture depository, Fulham ground, Barnes railway bridge etc. They don't do any of that now.
Instead they try to keep the race interesting throughout when it's clear who was likely to win for 3/4 of it..
I'm with Curtice on this one. Given current polling a net loss of 50 seats would not be much short of spectacular for Labour. I expect them to lose more than that in Scotland. And maybe twice that in England and Wales.
I baked and decorated my EU flag cake today. It was a bit of a struggle to keep it together because I took it out of the oven too soon and so it started to collapse slightly... that will be the UK bit trying to break away I guess. Anyway, I gave it a bit more time in the oven and it all came together in the end. Certainly a far better result for me than the referendum was. I'm about to tuck in now.
I baked and decorated my EU flag cake today. It was a bit of a struggle to keep it together because I took it out of the oven too soon and so it started to collapse slightly... that will be the UK bit trying to break away I guess. Anyway, I gave it a bit more time in the oven and it all came together in the end. Certainly a far better result for me than the referendum was. I'm about to tuck in now.
Spring was never waiting for us, girl It ran one step ahead As we followed in the dance Between the parted pages and were pressed In love's hot, fevered iron Like a striped pair of pants MacArthur's Park is melting in the dark All the sweet, green icing flowing down Someone left the cake out in the rain I don't think that I can take it 'Cause it took so long to bake it And I'll never have that recipe again Oh no!
And to think Michael Howard was the safe pair of hands who helped his protégé Cameron save the Tory party from being marginalised and extreme on Europe... The current polls disguise a very severe sickness.
I'm intrigued by the notion of how Scotland would hypothetically transition out of the UK given the way things are going with the UK/EU split.
In 2014 it was sold as referendum one day, independence 18 months later.
Contrast that to the relatively simple task of extricating the UK from the EU.
Referendum Day Nine month wait for formal notification as the departing government organises itself Two years to sort out exit and transitional arrangements ??? to implement.
That's with a few tens of thousands of shared pensions, a pot of debt that is just a €240bn on a €14tn economy, negligible levels of entanglement on many areas and a tiny redistributive budget between states in comparison..
How on earth does it work with 65m people with shared welfare and pension arrangements, £2tn of debt and almost complete government, citizen and public sector employee entanglement etc and what timescale does anyone place on it?
And that's before the departing party is allowed to go off and negotiate alternative arrangements, which usually involve vetoes by those with pre-ownership (see Gibraltar).
I'm with Curtice on this one. Given current polling a net loss of 50 seats would not be much short of spectacular for Labour. I expect them to lose more than that in Scotland. And maybe twice that in England and Wales.
I think R&T predictions are just for England? Although I could be wrong.
The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.
I suspect Howard was just saying that Theresa's commitment to Gibraltar goes as far as possible in the Brexit era - up to and (theoretically) including armed conflict. (Let's not be like the Leave campaign and completely fabricate the existence of WAR!!!! rhetoric in Dave's speech.) Nevertheless even to mention WAR!!!! doesn't help matters in these sensitive times. Howard needs to duck out for a bit and let things simmer down.
It was Cameron who said voting LEAVE would risk World War Three.
No we've debunked that. Even Leavers on here accept Dave never uttered it.
Nope we have not debunked it., You are another of the revisionists happy to lie about what happened and in what order to try and disprove something embarrassing. The sort of sordid behaviour we have come to expect from extremists like you.
Erm Richard, you said yourself that the words never crossed Dave's lips. Okay, you also posit the existence of some mysterious early draft of the speech that was floating about. I find that difficult to believe myself, but even if true it merely serves as a flimsy excuse for Leave's misrepresentations of Dave's utterances rather than a justification.
What is this bollocks about Cameron not warning of WW3 if we left?
I'm intrigued by the notion of how Scotland would hypothetically transition out of the UK given the way things are going with the UK/EU split.
In 2014 it was sold as referendum one day, independence 18 months later.
Contrast that to the relatively simple task of extricating the UK from the EU.
This is the wrong way round.
Creating a new state is relatively straightforward and has been done countless times before. Extricating a state, maintaining continuity, from the network of treaties that is the EU has never been done, and is an order of magnitude more complex.
I'm intrigued by the notion of how Scotland would hypothetically transition out of the UK given the way things are going with the UK/EU split.
In 2014 it was sold as referendum one day, independence 18 months later.
Contrast that to the relatively simple task of extricating the UK from the EU.
This is the wrong way round.
Creating a new state is relatively straightforward and has been done countless times before. Extricating a state, maintaining continuity, from the network of treaties that is the EU has never been done, and is an order of magnitude more complex.
... but Scotland is going to have two new relationships: one with the UK AND one with the EU.
Don't just blame the Guardian for the war against Spain meme. The Telegraph are at it too:
Headline: "Royal Navy 'far weaker' than it was during Falklands War".
First line: "Britain's Royal Navy is substantially weaker than it was during the Falklands War but could still 'cripple' Spain, military experts have said."
Normally even when they are playing war games against Russia, they don't publicly identify the imaginary adversary. A major change is happening here.
And to think Michael Howard was the safe pair of hands who helped his protégé Cameron save the Tory party from being marginalised and extreme on Europe... The current polls disguise a very severe sickness.
It was very disappointing from Howard, whom I've often quite admired. It's given the Brexit ultras, who want to utterly wreck our relationship with the EU, the perfect opportunity to stir up the sh*t.
I'm intrigued by the notion of how Scotland would hypothetically transition out of the UK given the way things are going with the UK/EU split.
In 2014 it was sold as referendum one day, independence 18 months later.
Contrast that to the relatively simple task of extricating the UK from the EU.
This is the wrong way round.
Creating a new state is relatively straightforward and has been done countless times before. Extricating a state, maintaining continuity, from the network of treaties that is the EU has never been done, and is an order of magnitude more complex.
... but Scotland is going to have two new relationships: one with the UK AND one with the EU.
If it happens while the UK is under the A50 process or in transition, the UK will be a vassal of the EU and they will dictate the terms: in effect the rUK will have no choice but to stay in the single market.
I'm intrigued by the notion of how Scotland would hypothetically transition out of the UK given the way things are going with the UK/EU split.
In 2014 it was sold as referendum one day, independence 18 months later.
Contrast that to the relatively simple task of extricating the UK from the EU.
This is the wrong way round.
Creating a new state is relatively straightforward and has been done countless times before. Extricating a state, maintaining continuity, from the network of treaties that is the EU has never been done, and is an order of magnitude more complex.
I think the 5th biggest economy in the world will somehow manage.
I'm intrigued by the notion of how Scotland would hypothetically transition out of the UK given the way things are going with the UK/EU split.
In 2014 it was sold as referendum one day, independence 18 months later.
Contrast that to the relatively simple task of extricating the UK from the EU.
This is the wrong way round.
Creating a new state is relatively straightforward and has been done countless times before. Extricating a state, maintaining continuity, from the network of treaties that is the EU has never been done, and is an order of magnitude more complex.
... but Scotland is going to have two new relationships: one with the UK AND one with the EU.
If it happens while the UK is under the A50 process or in transition, the UK will be a vassal of the EU and they will dictate the terms: in effect the rUK will have no choice but to stay in the single market.
How so? What meaningful difference will it make? Embarrassing, maybe, but England is the economic might on this Island.
I'm intrigued by the notion of how Scotland would hypothetically transition out of the UK given the way things are going with the UK/EU split.
In 2014 it was sold as referendum one day, independence 18 months later.
Contrast that to the relatively simple task of extricating the UK from the EU.
This is the wrong way round.
Creating a new state is relatively straightforward and has been done countless times before. Extricating a state, maintaining continuity, from the network of treaties that is the EU has never been done, and is an order of magnitude more complex.
... but Scotland is going to have two new relationships: one with the UK AND one with the EU.
If it happens while the UK is under the A50 process or in transition, the UK will be a vassal of the EU and they will dictate the terms: in effect the rUK will have no choice but to stay in the single market.
The UK will be a vassal of the EU? I thought we never lost sovereignty?
I'm intrigued by the notion of how Scotland would hypothetically transition out of the UK given the way things are going with the UK/EU split.
In 2014 it was sold as referendum one day, independence 18 months later.
Contrast that to the relatively simple task of extricating the UK from the EU.
This is the wrong way round.
Creating a new state is relatively straightforward and has been done countless times before. Extricating a state, maintaining continuity, from the network of treaties that is the EU has never been done, and is an order of magnitude more complex.
... but Scotland is going to have two new relationships: one with the UK AND one with the EU.
If it happens while the UK is under the A50 process or in transition, the UK will be a vassal of the EU and they will dictate the terms: in effect the rUK will have no choice but to stay in the single market.
How so? What meaningful difference will it make? Embarrassing, maybe, but England is the economic might on this Island.
England is not the economic or political might in this continent, and we are now a supplicant to the EU indefinitely if we don't want to jump off a cliff edge.
Comments
Rallings & Thrasher appear to be predicting a swing of just 2.5% from Lab to Con since 2013. I just don't believe it - very surprised if it is not at least double that!
I'm tempted to stick £50 on Spurs to win the title.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d9/Road_Up_To_Honister_pass.jpg
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/848519922883887104
If Manchester City beat Chelsea in midweek, Spurs could easily be within one point with a superior goal difference before Chelsea kick off next Saturday evening. The odds will tumble from 11s.
http://tinyurl.com/htug59d
Can't really see the point myself.
Rallings & Thrasher versus Curtice
Council by-elections versus Opinion polls
Jeremy Corbyn’s Shadow Local Government Secretary quits just weeks before party on course to lose vital seats in May
Stade might be shit away from home but 4/1 is waaaaaay too long in a knock out competition.
As proved conclusively by Jeremy Clarkson on Top Gear.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQh56geU0X8
That was the one where you started the engine backwards to reverse the car.
Britain's Navy is 'far weaker' than it was during the Falklands but could still 'cripple' Spain
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=bond+3-wheeler&espv=2&tbm=isch&imgil=S1qy9xkROFXZ6M%3A%3BU4Nyrl2IZyAahM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.classicandperformancecar.com%252Fbond%252Fminicar%252F2926%252F1948-1965-bond-minicar-3-wheeler&source=iu&pf=m&fir=S1qy9xkROFXZ6M%3A%2CU4Nyrl2IZyAahM%2C_&usg=__lYxDREZdj7G_VE83_SdI_NTZyDI=&biw=1153&bih=635&ved=0ahUKEwiRi6n7l4bTAhVHI8AKHd7WDegQyjcIJQ&ei=FibhWJGoFMfGgAberbfADg#imgrc=S1qy9xkROFXZ6M:
(edited to add, sorry, didn't realise the url was so long.)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39473698
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/02/blue-passports-make-return-home-office-500-million-post-brexit/
https://twitter.com/Fifegirl1953/status/848549143886934020
In the 1950s, babies were routinely physically separated from their mothers. A very dodgy experiment, which involved deliberately terrifying babies, was conducted to see if they'd flee to an image of their mother, or a soft and cuddly toy.
They went for the toy, and policy was changed to encourage tactile parent-child interaction.
That change has affected millions of children to positive effect. Was it worth being rather horrendous to a few hundred (I think that was the number of subjects involved, not entirely sure)?
Mind you, not all experiments work well. In the 1970s, the US tried to get psychopaths to open up through group therapy, and mend them that way. They tried this, it seemed to work, and the psychopaths were released. Unfortunately, it seemed they had connected. But not in a good way. They'd swapped tips on evading the police and committing crimes, and the authorities had quite the time of it trying to catch them.
To pick up on an earlier comment, it does look as though the Coalition losses from 2013 are going to unwind quite dramatically on May 4th. As Ishmael (I think) said in response to my previous, the big losses suffered by the LDs were to the Conservatives in 2009 (including Devon and Somerset) but these were masked by LD gains from Labour.
The Con-LD battle on May 4th will be interesting though one of a number on that day.
I think the 2018 locals and especially the London contests will be critical for Labour and Corbyn. Labour has currently over 1000 London Councillors - they could suffer big numerical losses and only lose a few Councils (Croydon, Redbridge, Hammersmith & Fulham) but the loss of councillors would be significant in a heartland area.
Are we still wittering on about Gibraltar ?
Form is temporary, class is permanent.
Well done to Cowley Tech!
Maybe the Tabs should discontinue Land Economy...
Winning isn't everything.........it's the only thing.
I had no idea who she was so I just skimmed past it.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/28/british-public-turns-against-referendums/
It ran one step ahead
As we followed in the dance
Between the parted pages and were pressed
In love's hot, fevered iron
Like a striped pair of pants
MacArthur's Park is melting in the dark
All the sweet, green icing flowing down
Someone left the cake out in the rain
I don't think that I can take it
'Cause it took so long to bake it
And I'll never have that recipe again
Oh no!
In 2014 it was sold as referendum one day, independence 18 months later.
Contrast that to the relatively simple task of extricating the UK from the EU.
Referendum Day
Nine month wait for formal notification as the departing government organises itself
Two years to sort out exit and transitional arrangements
??? to implement.
That's with a few tens of thousands of shared pensions, a pot of debt that is just a €240bn on a €14tn economy, negligible levels of entanglement on many areas and a tiny redistributive budget between states in comparison..
How on earth does it work with 65m people with shared welfare and pension arrangements, £2tn of debt and almost complete government, citizen and public sector employee entanglement etc and what timescale does anyone place on it?
And that's before the departing party is allowed to go off and negotiate alternative arrangements, which usually involve vetoes by those with pre-ownership (see Gibraltar).
Edit: apparently not. Shame.
Creating a new state is relatively straightforward and has been done countless times before. Extricating a state, maintaining continuity, from the network of treaties that is the EU has never been done, and is an order of magnitude more complex.
Headline: "Royal Navy 'far weaker' than it was during Falklands War".
First line: "Britain's Royal Navy is substantially weaker than it was during the Falklands War but could still 'cripple' Spain, military experts have said."
Normally even when they are playing war games against Russia, they don't publicly identify the imaginary adversary. A major change is happening here.
Where would Scotland rank; even in the top 50?