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Rallings & Thrasher predict in May's locals the Tories will gain 50 seats, Lib Dems gain 100 seats, Labour to lose 50, and UKIP to lose 100 pic.twitter.com/5mcIRDmBxr
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Though really, do psephologists ever bring good news?
Also, I know most seats won't change hands, but there's good news for Labour, as those seat change predictions look low, even if they are indeed bad. With all the expectations management from his own team - remember how Copeland was a triumph? - and the avalanche of criticism from everyone else, that sort of result will not feel apocalyptic. So he'll be fine.
Mike and I have asked the good professors both for a full breakdown.
How much expectations management are they going to be allowed to get away with, when at this stage usually we'd be expecting the opposition parties to be taking council seats from the government?
Luckyguy1983 Posts: 7,098
1:07PM
@malcolmg https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/jim-sillars-i-wont-vote-yes-independence-means-rejoining-eu/
Thanks for that , as I thought very flimsy and just the ravings of an old man sad that he is no longer relevant in any way and does not like current SNP people. He is just like Labour now, against anything the SNP are for.
He did not play any key role in 2014 and has no role whatsoever and is ignored in Scotland.
Yes, I can't see UKIP contributing much from now on: in the Brexit era people will crave serious, adult politicians more and more, so UKIP will be far from anyone's thoughts. As for 'The Patriotic Alliance', I'm thinking Veritas levels of popularity, impact and longevity.
The one saving grace for Labour is that a terrible result this year, while it will be a damaging indication of how unpopular they are, it won't affect their long-term "infrastructure" much since they have so little to lose in these sorts of areas. But they are going to need a big turnaround by the 2018 elections (with a pretty obvious solution...), because if they do terribly then as well, then they really will be losing tons of councillors in places where Labour NEEDS to do well in General Elections.
In that instance, the sitting PM was ousted just 18 months later after becoming epically unpopular
#justsaying
Jezza is such total crap that he makes Ed look like a gold nugget!
Dave was the best
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2011
Yet there is zero chance of a Spanish attack on Gibraltar. And it is Britain, not Spain, that is planning to make the border into not only an external EU one, but one across which there is no single market and no customs union [*], against the wishes of a large majority of the Gibraltar population.
Do people get what is happening here?
It also appears to me that there is not going to be a happy-clappy resolution to the Irish border question either, despite all the "we know how to solve problems" attitude that is being projected.
(*) The only other such land borders for thousands of miles are around Ceuta and Melilla, which are surrounded by Colditz-style fences.
Entirely possible that May could trip over her own feet too...
Some strongly held, contrarian views. His skirmish with Joan Rivers on R4 was one the more uncomfortable 45 minutes of radio I've listened to.
Now that the UK is leaving the EU, he clearly views the prospect of Scotland voluntarily rejoining an undemocratic supranational body whilst England fulfils the free-wheeling vision that he had for Scotland with horror.
Everything seems to be going the Kremlin's way.
Con 34.5%
Lab 21.3%
UKIP 20.2%
LDem 13,7%
Green 3.4%
BNP 0.3%
Ind/Others 6.6%
and 2009 actual vote shares
Con 43.5%
LDem 24.7%
Lab 13.5%
UKIP 4.6%
Green 4.4%
BNP 2.5%
Ind/Others 6.8%
My forecast for this year
Con 41
LDem 21
Lab 18
UKIP 9
Green 4
Ind/Others 7
Yes. I expect a division of tanks to be dispatched to attack Bute House any day now...
And I don't think this will change their attitude regarding their current constitutional arrangement.
'Top pollster John Curtice predicts attempt to hold legal referendum without Westminster's permission'
http://tinyurl.com/kv3fvrg
This all rests on the assumption that Corbyn's Far Left support base amongst the membership are more interested in General Election success than securing permanent control of the Labour Party. A brave suggestion, in the Sir Humphrey sense of the word.
"The Lib Dem fightback we’ve been seeing most Thursday nights since last June will continue this May as well, if Rallings and Thrasher are correct, if I were a Tory MP in the South West I might start to get a little nervous and pressure Mrs May to come up with plans and policies to help retain those seats, given the smallness of her majority she might have no choice if she wishes to govern properly."
Theory: Tory MP retirements and boundary reform bring opportunities to shuffle sitting MPs around. Anybody especially nervous about holding on in areas like West London, East Sussex or the region around Bristol can be moved into nominally Labour-held marginals, where the defenders are doomed.
There'll be an awful lot more Labour seats primed to fall to the Tories than Tory seats primed to fall to the Lib Dems - who, in any event, have limited resources and will be concentrating them on a limited number of targets, as well as defending virtually all of their existing seats: Tim Farron himself is the only Lib Dem MP who may plausibly be regarded as safe. Problem solved.
"As for UKIP, we appear to have seen peak UKIP, unless Mrs May’s Brexit deal is a Brexit lite deal which could re-energise UKIP, but with Arron Banks setting up The People’s Front for UKIP The Patriotic Alliance, it might not matter."
Very much doubt whether the Brexit deal will be soft enough to motivate large numbers of voters to defect back from Con to Ukip. Especially given that this will be portrayed as pushing the door open for the alternative, and the only alternative to Theresa May is Jeremy Corbyn.
Now of course if Gibraltar is particularly unhappy with their situation after we leave the EU they can hold a referendum to leave the United Kingdom and do something else if they wish.
"(T)here appears to be no rational reason for you to stand in the way of the will of the Scottish Parliament and I hope you will not do so."
"However, in anticipation of your refusal to enter into discussions at this stage, it is important for me to be clear about my position."
"It is my firm view that the mandate of the Scottish Parliament must be respected and progressed. The question is not if, but how."
"I hope that will be by constructive discussion between our governments. However, if that is not yet possible, I will set out to the Scottish Parliament the steps I intend to take to ensure that progress is made towards a referendum."
I haven't engaged much in the discussion on here on the topic because it's all a bit Meh, Situation Normal for us.
It will be interesting to see who is right - if its Curtice Labour are going to lose 300+ councillors.
(T)here appears to be no rational reason...
But there are several rational reasons. Including that they've just held a referendum (and knew about a potential Brexit) and still lost. Also that the issues with Brexit will need to be sorted first to even know what iScot might look like.
Since the first few words are so wrong, there's little point considering the rest.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39472438
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-36612989
Adam Fleming @adamfleming
£490m is the estimated cost of producing #Passports for ten years from 2019, not the price tag for making them blue.
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What's actually happened so far: two reasonable letters have been sent, a former Tory leader has gone OTT on telly. That's it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/02/theresa-may-would-go-war-defend-sovereignty-gibraltar-says-michael/
Of course the implication is that the underlying Lab position is even weaker than these seats will imply.
I'm sure I read a suggestion one of the 3 at least actually wanted independence.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21750909
Especially as the areas where Labour is doing relatively well - London and other metropolitan cities don't have local elections.
Apparently he intended too, but when it was laughed at in the press releases he toned it down.
Asked me if I was a Labour voter......LOL.
Are they your last hope for the union.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/brexit-could-trigger-world-war-7928607
It was Boris Johnson who mentioned WW3.