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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The country’s leading psephologists bring more bad news for Co

SystemSystem Posts: 12,263
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The country’s leading psephologists bring more bad news for Corbyn

Rallings & Thrasher predict in May's locals the Tories will gain 50 seats, Lib Dems gain 100 seats, Labour to lose 50, and UKIP to lose 100 pic.twitter.com/5mcIRDmBxr

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    First, glorious first!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2017
    Is there a Rallings&Thrasher prediction for Labour's share of the vote?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Definitely slow news time with all these Corbyn is Crap threads.

    Though really, do psephologists ever bring good news?

    Also, I know most seats won't change hands, but there's good news for Labour, as those seat change predictions look low, even if they are indeed bad. With all the expectations management from his own team - remember how Copeland was a triumph? - and the avalanche of criticism from everyone else, that sort of result will not feel apocalyptic. So he'll be fine.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Danny565 said:

    Is there a Rallings&Thrasher prediction for Labour's share of the vote?

    Alas no, they only give the Tory and UKIP share in The Sunday Times.

    Mike and I have asked the good professors both for a full breakdown.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is there a Rallings&Thrasher prediction for Labour's share of the vote?

    Alas no, they only give the Tory and UKIP share in The Sunday Times.

    Mike and I have asked the good professors both for a full breakdown.
    Would you mind sharing those? Too poor for a Times sub :(
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    5...4...3..2....1....Justin Short Straws tells us the local elections of 1905 showed this pattern and it was still fine for Labour at the following GE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    I hope Professor Curtice refers to himself as the primus inter pares of psephologists, that would be awesome.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is there a Rallings&Thrasher prediction for Labour's share of the vote?

    Alas no, they only give the Tory and UKIP share in The Sunday Times.

    Mike and I have asked the good professors both for a full breakdown.
    Do they look at North Britain as well?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is there a Rallings&Thrasher prediction for Labour's share of the vote?

    Alas no, they only give the Tory and UKIP share in The Sunday Times.

    Mike and I have asked the good professors both for a full breakdown.
    Would you mind sharing those? Too poor for a Times sub :(
    It's in the second tweet atop this thread
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    So Prof Curtice isn't too optimistic for Corbyn's Labour in the locals.

    How much expectations management are they going to be allowed to get away with, when at this stage usually we'd be expecting the opposition parties to be taking council seats from the government?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is there a Rallings&Thrasher prediction for Labour's share of the vote?

    Alas no, they only give the Tory and UKIP share in The Sunday Times.

    Mike and I have asked the good professors both for a full breakdown.
    Would you mind sharing those? Too poor for a Times sub :(
    It's in the second tweet atop this thread
    I am feeling quite ashamed of myself now. :p
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Nevermind. Stick to your guns Jezza!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is there a Rallings&Thrasher prediction for Labour's share of the vote?

    Alas no, they only give the Tory and UKIP share in The Sunday Times.

    Mike and I have asked the good professors both for a full breakdown.
    Do they look at North Britain as well?
    Nope.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    kle4 said:

    I hope Professor Curtice refers to himself as the primus inter pares of psephologists, that would be awesome.

    I did call him that at a seminar a few years ago, he just chuckled.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    FPT
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 7,098
    1:07PM
    @malcolmg https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/jim-sillars-i-wont-vote-yes-independence-means-rejoining-eu/

    Thanks for that , as I thought very flimsy and just the ravings of an old man sad that he is no longer relevant in any way and does not like current SNP people. He is just like Labour now, against anything the SNP are for.
    He did not play any key role in 2014 and has no role whatsoever and is ignored in Scotland.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Sandpit said:

    So Prof Curtice isn't too optimistic for Corbyn's Labour in the locals.

    How much expectations management are they going to be allowed to get away with, when at this stage usually we'd be expecting the opposition parties to be taking council seats from the government?

    Cat Smith: Ok, the Tories have taken every single council seat in Liverpool, but that's a good result for Labour given the national polling.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 7,098
    1:07PM
    @malcolmg https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/jim-sillars-i-wont-vote-yes-independence-means-rejoining-eu/

    Thanks for that , as I thought very flimsy and just the ravings of an old man sad that he is no longer relevant in any way and does not like current SNP people. He is just like Labour now, against anything the SNP are for.
    He did not play any key role in 2014 and has no role whatsoever and is ignored in Scotland.

    What are you saying?:
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    'As for UKIP, we appear to have seen peak UKIP, unless Mrs May’s Brexit deal is a Brexit lite deal which could re-energise UKIP, but with Arron Banks setting up The People’s Front for UKIP The Patriotic Alliance, it might not matter.'

    Yes, I can't see UKIP contributing much from now on: in the Brexit era people will crave serious, adult politicians more and more, so UKIP will be far from anyone's thoughts. As for 'The Patriotic Alliance', I'm thinking Veritas levels of popularity, impact and longevity.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:



    Also, I know most seats won't change hands, but there's good news for Labour, as those seat change predictions look low

    That's only because Labour don't start off with much in this set of elections anyway, because they're mostly in rural shire counties (the types of places where Labour were behind even at Peak Blair).

    The one saving grace for Labour is that a terrible result this year, while it will be a damaging indication of how unpopular they are, it won't affect their long-term "infrastructure" much since they have so little to lose in these sorts of areas. But they are going to need a big turnaround by the 2018 elections (with a pretty obvious solution...), because if they do terribly then as well, then they really will be losing tons of councillors in places where Labour NEEDS to do well in General Elections.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    isam said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 7,098
    1:07PM
    @malcolmg https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/jim-sillars-i-wont-vote-yes-independence-means-rejoining-eu/

    Thanks for that , as I thought very flimsy and just the ravings of an old man sad that he is no longer relevant in any way and does not like current SNP people. He is just like Labour now, against anything the SNP are for.
    He did not play any key role in 2014 and has no role whatsoever and is ignored in Scotland.

    What are you saying?:
    That Jim Sillars is a busted flush, his opinion is of no matter to Scotland, he is yesterday's man and ignored totally. That was question Lucky asked me, will this have any impact in Scotland.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:



    Also, I know most seats won't change hands, but there's good news for Labour, as those seat change predictions look low

    That's only because Labour don't start off with much in this set of elections anyway, because they're mostly in rural shire counties (the types of places where Labour were behind even at Peak Blair).
    Oh I agree, but it makes it easier to spin as not so bad, plus, as you say, the overall infrastructure is not harmed too much, though morale will take a hit among the more realistic if this result pans out (IIRC they did badly last year, but not as badly as predicted).
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    The country’s leading psephologists bring more bad news for Corbyn - join the queue...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    The last time a sitting government gained local election seats in a non-GE year was 1989.

    In that instance, the sitting PM was ousted just 18 months later after becoming epically unpopular

    #justsaying :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    In the County Council elections I think the LDs could beat Labour for second behind the Tories but the Welsh, Scottish and Mayoral elections should keep Labour in second in overall voteshare
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is there a Rallings&Thrasher prediction for Labour's share of the vote?

    Alas no, they only give the Tory and UKIP share in The Sunday Times.

    Mike and I have asked the good professors both for a full breakdown.
    Would you mind sharing those? Too poor for a Times sub :(
    It's in the second tweet atop this thread
    41% for Tories plus Kippers seems a lot left for others. Presumably a fair number of independents of one sort or another.

    Jezza is such total crap that he makes Ed look like a gold nugget!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Danny565 said:

    The last time a sitting government gained local election seats in a non-GE year was 1989.

    In that instance, the sitting PM was ousted just 18 months later after becoming epically unpopular

    #justsaying :D

    So Corbyn is the next Thatcher - bodes well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Danny565 said:

    The last time a sitting government gained local election seats in a non-GE year was 1989.

    In that instance, the sitting PM was ousted just 18 months later after becoming epically unpopular

    #justsaying :D

    Nah, 2011 was the last time.

    Dave was the best

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2011
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited April 2017
    Michael "he likes race horses" Howard says Theresa May would "go to war" to "protect" Gibraltar.

    Yet there is zero chance of a Spanish attack on Gibraltar. And it is Britain, not Spain, that is planning to make the border into not only an external EU one, but one across which there is no single market and no customs union [*], against the wishes of a large majority of the Gibraltar population.

    Do people get what is happening here?

    It also appears to me that there is not going to be a happy-clappy resolution to the Irish border question either, despite all the "we know how to solve problems" attitude that is being projected.

    (*) The only other such land borders for thousands of miles are around Ceuta and Melilla, which are surrounded by Colditz-style fences.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    The last time a sitting government gained local election seats in a non-GE year was 1989.

    In that instance, the sitting PM was ousted just 18 months later after becoming epically unpopular

    #justsaying :D

    Nah, 2011 was the last time.

    Dave was the best

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2011
    I was thinking that (what a glorious evening that was).. but I suspect Danny is adding the Con and LD numbers.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    Cyan said:

    Michael "he likes race horses" Howard says Theresa May would "go to war" to "protect" Gibraltar.

    Yet there is zero chance of a Spanish attack on Gibraltar. And it is Britain, not Spain, that is planning to make the border into not only an external EU one, but one across which there is no single market and no customs union [*], against the wishes of a large majority of the Gibraltar population.

    Do people get what is happening here?

    (*) The only other such borders for thousands of miles are around Ceuta and Melilla, which are surrounded by Colditz-style fences.

    I don't think Gibraltar is in the customs union. The border has made the news in recent years for delays getting in/out of the territory. It sounds as though there won't be much change on that front!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    The last time a sitting government gained local election seats in a non-GE year was 1989.

    In that instance, the sitting PM was ousted just 18 months later after becoming epically unpopular

    #justsaying :D

    So Corbyn is the next Thatcher - bodes well.
    That was Maggie at peak hubris over the poll tax, and having whipped through the European Single Market.

    Entirely possible that May could trip over her own feet too...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,856
    I wonder if a return to EdM wouldn't be Labour's worst move at this point. All he'd have to do is a few self-deprecatory tweets about his car park sarsen, make some transparently insincere left wing noises to soothe the usual fucking idiots and grow a beard. Then he'd be ahead of May in the polls.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    The last time a sitting government gained local election seats in a non-GE year was 1989.

    In that instance, the sitting PM was ousted just 18 months later after becoming epically unpopular

    #justsaying :D

    Nah, 2011 was the last time.

    Dave was the best

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2011
    I was thinking that (what a glorious evening that was).. but I suspect Danny is adding the Con and LD numbers.
    It was a terrible night for me, the country had just rejected AV.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    Darcus Howe deid.

    Some strongly held, contrarian views. His skirmish with Joan Rivers on R4 was one the more uncomfortable 45 minutes of radio I've listened to.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited April 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    The last time a sitting government gained local election seats in a non-GE year was 1989.

    In that instance, the sitting PM was ousted just 18 months later after becoming epically unpopular

    #justsaying :D

    Nah, 2011 was the last time.

    Dave was the best

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2011
    I was thinking that (what a glorious evening that was).. but I suspect Danny is adding the Con and LD numbers.
    It was a terrible night for me, the country had just rejected AV.
    Genius is rarely recognised appropriately in its own time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    The last time a sitting government gained local election seats in a non-GE year was 1989.

    In that instance, the sitting PM was ousted just 18 months later after becoming epically unpopular

    #justsaying :D

    Nah, 2011 was the last time.

    Dave was the best

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2011
    I was thinking that (what a glorious evening that was).. but I suspect Danny is adding the Con and LD numbers.
    It was a terrible night for me, the country had just rejected AV.
    Ah, smug mode. :D
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,249
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 7,098
    1:07PM
    @malcolmg https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/jim-sillars-i-wont-vote-yes-independence-means-rejoining-eu/

    Thanks for that , as I thought very flimsy and just the ravings of an old man sad that he is no longer relevant in any way and does not like current SNP people. He is just like Labour now, against anything the SNP are for.
    He did not play any key role in 2014 and has no role whatsoever and is ignored in Scotland.

    This won't surprise you, but I don't agree that it's flimsy - I think his point coheres with his previous views on independence, namely that the UK was finished, a terminally declining entity, and that Scotland needed to be unshackled from it. I think he would have been pleased had Scotland voted Indy and been denied entry into the EU, and had to manage for itself. It's a view I had some sympathy for at the time except of course I wanted us all to break free, not just Scotland.

    Now that the UK is leaving the EU, he clearly views the prospect of Scotland voluntarily rejoining an undemocratic supranational body whilst England fulfils the free-wheeling vision that he had for Scotland with horror.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Meanwhile the governing party in Scotland is threatening to hold an illegal plebiscite. What happens if the other parties boycott it? Will the governing party declare the result of a plebiscite of its own supporters - plus some clinging-to-the-past "let's stop climate change" Green nutters - to be legitimate? What happens if the Orange Order turn up at the illegal polling stations with pickaxe handles to try to prevent such a flagrant breach of the Scotland Act?

    Everything seems to be going the Kremlin's way.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    I see it differently - the EU has kicked Gibraltar into the long grass and it only becomes an issue with Spain after we've left. The more excitable members of Remain (we'll sell out Gib) and Leave (war after Spanish invasion) have temporarily lost their senses, whatever they had remaining of them...it is to be hoped they recover them.....
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    edited April 2017
    Cyan said:

    Michael "he likes race horses" Howard says Theresa May would "go to war" to "protect" Gibraltar.

    Yet there is zero chance of a Spanish attack on Gibraltar. And it is Britain, not Spain, that is planning to make the border into not only an external EU one, but one across which there is no single market and no customs union [*], against the wishes of a large majority of the Gibraltar population.

    Do people get what is happening here?

    It also appears to me that there is not going to be a happy-clappy resolution to the Irish border question either, despite all the "we know how to solve problems" attitude that is being projected.

    (*) The only other such borders for thousands of miles are around Ceuta and Melilla, which are surrounded by Colditz-style fences.

    I understand that Howard was trying to be helpful to Theresa here, but I'm not sure that Leavers' using the language of WAR!!!! in Europe is at all wise. This whole business demands cool heads, or at least the appearance of them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    Cyan said:

    Meanwhile the governing party in Scotland is threatening to hold an illegal plebiscite. What happens if the other parties boycott it? Will the governing party declare the result of a plebiscite of its own supporters - plus some clinging-to-the-past "let's stop climate change" Green nutters - to be legitimate? What happens if the Orange Order turn up at the illegal polling stations with pickaxe handles to try to prevent such a flagrant breach of the Scotland Act?

    Everything seems to be going the Kremlin's way.

    They've actually threatened to hold one?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder if a return to EdM wouldn't be Labour's worst move at this point. All he'd have to do is a few self-deprecatory tweets about his car park sarsen, make some transparently insincere left wing noises to soothe the usual fucking idiots and grow a beard. Then he'd be ahead of May in the polls.

    You made sense until the final sentence.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    I see it differently - the EU has kicked Gibraltar into the long grass and it only becomes an issue with Spain after we've left. The more excitable members of Remain (we'll sell out Gib) and Leave (war after Spanish invasion) have temporarily lost their senses, whatever they had remaining of them...it is to be hoped they recover them.....
    That was actually my point - the EU mentioning it at this time at the behest of Spain is to enable the playing of silly buggers, because they support their member, but they've no reason to do more than that.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    I see it differently - the EU has kicked Gibraltar into the long grass and it only becomes an issue with Spain after we've left. The more excitable members of Remain (we'll sell out Gib) and Leave (war after Spanish invasion) have temporarily lost their senses, whatever they had remaining of them...it is to be hoped they recover them.....
    That was actually my point - the EU mentioning it at this time at the behest of Spain is to enable the playing of silly buggers, because they support their member, but they've no reason to do more than that.

    I wonder if we will see that clause in the final version. Probably, but you never know!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    2013 actual vote share in the English elections up this year

    Con 34.5%
    Lab 21.3%
    UKIP 20.2%
    LDem 13,7%
    Green 3.4%
    BNP 0.3%
    Ind/Others 6.6%

    and 2009 actual vote shares

    Con 43.5%
    LDem 24.7%
    Lab 13.5%
    UKIP 4.6%
    Green 4.4%
    BNP 2.5%
    Ind/Others 6.8%

    My forecast for this year

    Con 41
    LDem 21
    Lab 18
    UKIP 9
    Green 4
    Ind/Others 7
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Cyan said:

    Meanwhile the governing party in Scotland is threatening to hold an illegal plebiscite. What happens if the other parties boycott it? Will the governing party declare the result of a plebiscite of its own supporters - plus some clinging-to-the-past "let's stop climate change" Green nutters - to be legitimate? What happens if the Orange Order turn up at the illegal polling stations with pickaxe handles to try to prevent such a flagrant breach of the Scotland Act?

    Everything seems to be going the Kremlin's way.

    I hadn't heard they were actually threatening to hold one. I cannot see why they would want to. The case to hold one is pretty strong, though the case for 'not until we've left the EU' is also not without strength (given otherwise people would be unclear what remaining in the UK might mean), so it would seem great if the SNP got a legitimate one for when they asked, but hardly a disaster if they get to talk about it being denied for 3-4 years. An unofficial plebiscite seems like a needless complication for them.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Cyan said:

    Meanwhile the governing party in Scotland is threatening to hold an illegal plebiscite. What happens if the other parties boycott it? Will the governing party declare the result of a plebiscite of its own supporters - plus some clinging-to-the-past "let's stop climate change" Green nutters - to be legitimate? What happens if the Orange Order turn up at the illegal polling stations with pickaxe handles to try to prevent such a flagrant breach of the Scotland Act?

    Everything seems to be going the Kremlin's way.


    Yes. I expect a division of tanks to be dispatched to attack Bute House any day now...

  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited April 2017
    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    I see it differently - the EU has kicked Gibraltar into the long grass and it only becomes an issue with Spain after we've left. The more excitable members of Remain (we'll sell out Gib) and Leave (war after Spanish invasion) have temporarily lost their senses, whatever they had remaining of them...it is to be hoped they recover them.....
    In terms of how people have actually been living in Gibraltar since the 1980s - sure, some queues at the border, but still, freedom of movement and a single market and customs union, which is just what people want - Britain has already sold out Gibraltar. What do you think is more important to people who live there? Being able to have a job and to travel freely in the area, or a GCHQ facility and the British military having rights there?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    edited April 2017
    Cyan said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    I see it differently - the EU has kicked Gibraltar into the long grass and it only becomes an issue with Spain after we've left. The more excitable members of Remain (we'll sell out Gib) and Leave (war after Spanish invasion) have temporarily lost their senses, whatever they had remaining of them...it is to be hoped they recover them.....
    In terms of how people have actually been living in Gibraltar since the 1980s - sure, some queues at the border, but still, freedom of movement and a single market and customs union, which is just what people want - Britain has already sold out Gibraltar. What do you think is more important to people who live there? Being able to have a job and to travel freely in the area, or a GCHQ facility and the British military having rights there?
    Again, Gibraltar is outside the customs union.

    And I don't think this will change their attitude regarding their current constitutional arrangement.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    Cyan said:

    Meanwhile the governing party in Scotland is threatening to hold an illegal plebiscite. What happens if the other parties boycott it? Will the governing party declare the result of a plebiscite of its own supporters - plus some clinging-to-the-past "let's stop climate change" Green nutters - to be legitimate? What happens if the Orange Order turn up at the illegal polling stations with pickaxe handles to try to prevent such a flagrant breach of the Scotland Act?

    Everything seems to be going the Kremlin's way.

    The primus inter pares of psephologists appears to think it may not be illegal.

    'Top pollster John Curtice predicts attempt to hold legal referendum without Westminster's permission'

    http://tinyurl.com/kv3fvrg
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    "For a sitting government to make gains and the main opposition to lose seats in local elections is rare, and speaks volumes about the appalling nature of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. Perhaps losses this year and next year might persuade his more passionate supporters to realise their man is the electoral equivalent of Ebola. For those who want a strong Labour party of a strong opposition, it might be best if Labour get absolutely shellacked in these local elections and the elections in 2018."

    This all rests on the assumption that Corbyn's Far Left support base amongst the membership are more interested in General Election success than securing permanent control of the Labour Party. A brave suggestion, in the Sir Humphrey sense of the word.


    "The Lib Dem fightback we’ve been seeing most Thursday nights since last June will continue this May as well, if Rallings and Thrasher are correct, if I were a Tory MP in the South West I might start to get a little nervous and pressure Mrs May to come up with plans and policies to help retain those seats, given the smallness of her majority she might have no choice if she wishes to govern properly."

    Theory: Tory MP retirements and boundary reform bring opportunities to shuffle sitting MPs around. Anybody especially nervous about holding on in areas like West London, East Sussex or the region around Bristol can be moved into nominally Labour-held marginals, where the defenders are doomed.

    There'll be an awful lot more Labour seats primed to fall to the Tories than Tory seats primed to fall to the Lib Dems - who, in any event, have limited resources and will be concentrating them on a limited number of targets, as well as defending virtually all of their existing seats: Tim Farron himself is the only Lib Dem MP who may plausibly be regarded as safe. Problem solved.


    "As for UKIP, we appear to have seen peak UKIP, unless Mrs May’s Brexit deal is a Brexit lite deal which could re-energise UKIP, but with Arron Banks setting up The People’s Front for UKIP The Patriotic Alliance, it might not matter."

    Very much doubt whether the Brexit deal will be soft enough to motivate large numbers of voters to defect back from Con to Ukip. Especially given that this will be portrayed as pushing the door open for the alternative, and the only alternative to Theresa May is Jeremy Corbyn.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    MarkHopkins said:

    Cyan said:

    Meanwhile the governing party in Scotland is threatening to hold an illegal plebiscite. What happens if the other parties boycott it? Will the governing party declare the result of a plebiscite of its own supporters - plus some clinging-to-the-past "let's stop climate change" Green nutters - to be legitimate? What happens if the Orange Order turn up at the illegal polling stations with pickaxe handles to try to prevent such a flagrant breach of the Scotland Act?

    Everything seems to be going the Kremlin's way.


    Yes. I expect a division of tanks to be dispatched to attack Bute House any day now...

    They're already here !
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    edited April 2017
    Cyan said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    I see it differently - the EU has kicked Gibraltar into the long grass and it only becomes an issue with Spain after we've left. The more excitable members of Remain (we'll sell out Gib) and Leave (war after Spanish invasion) have temporarily lost their senses, whatever they had remaining of them...it is to be hoped they recover them.....
    In terms of how people have actually been living in Gibraltar since the 1980s - sure, some queues at the border, but still, freedom of movement and a single market and customs union, which is just what people want - Britain has already sold out Gibraltar. What do you think is more important to people who live there? Being able to have a job and to travel freely in the area, or a GCHQ facility and the British military having rights there?
    Nobody has "betrayed" anybody. We held a democratic vote and decided we wanted to leave the European Union. That's all that has happened.

    Now of course if Gibraltar is particularly unhappy with their situation after we leave the EU they can hold a referendum to leave the United Kingdom and do something else if they wish.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Cyan said:

    Meanwhile the governing party in Scotland is threatening to hold an illegal plebiscite. What happens if the other parties boycott it? Will the governing party declare the result of a plebiscite of its own supporters - plus some clinging-to-the-past "let's stop climate change" Green nutters - to be legitimate? What happens if the Orange Order turn up at the illegal polling stations with pickaxe handles to try to prevent such a flagrant breach of the Scotland Act?

    Everything seems to be going the Kremlin's way.

    The primus inter pares of psephologists appears to think it may not be illegal.

    'Top pollster John Curtice predicts attempt to hold legal referendum without Westminster's permission'

    http://tinyurl.com/kv3fvrg
    Well, perhaps he's a psephologist but not a constitutional expert so could be wrong, but if he's right that'd be throwing about a dozen more pigeons to the hungry lions.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited April 2017
    RobD said:

    Cyan said:

    Meanwhile the governing party in Scotland is threatening to hold an illegal plebiscite. What happens if the other parties boycott it? Will the governing party declare the result of a plebiscite of its own supporters - plus some clinging-to-the-past "let's stop climate change" Green nutters - to be legitimate? What happens if the Orange Order turn up at the illegal polling stations with pickaxe handles to try to prevent such a flagrant breach of the Scotland Act?

    Everything seems to be going the Kremlin's way.

    They've actually threatened to hold one?
    Yes, on 31 March, so not an April Fool's joke. From Sturgeon's letter:

    "(T)here appears to be no rational reason for you to stand in the way of the will of the Scottish Parliament and I hope you will not do so."

    "However, in anticipation of your refusal to enter into discussions at this stage, it is important for me to be clear about my position."

    "It is my firm view that the mandate of the Scottish Parliament must be respected and progressed. The question is not if, but how."

    "I hope that will be by constructive discussion between our governments. However, if that is not yet possible, I will set out to the Scottish Parliament the steps I intend to take to ensure that progress is made towards a referendum."
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder if a return to EdM wouldn't be Labour's worst move at this point. All he'd have to do is a few self-deprecatory tweets about his car park sarsen, make some transparently insincere left wing noises to soothe the usual fucking idiots and grow a beard. Then he'd be ahead of May in the polls.

    My 200/1 bet agrees.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    Yes. Border delays, maritime incursions and getting your Gib-plated car keyed over there are standard background noise. Only a few years ago the border took between 5 and 7 hours to cross for about a week.

    I haven't engaged much in the discussion on here on the topic because it's all a bit Meh, Situation Normal for us.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    GIN1138 said:

    Cyan said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    I see it differently - the EU has kicked Gibraltar into the long grass and it only becomes an issue with Spain after we've left. The more excitable members of Remain (we'll sell out Gib) and Leave (war after Spanish invasion) have temporarily lost their senses, whatever they had remaining of them...it is to be hoped they recover them.....
    In terms of how people have actually been living in Gibraltar since the 1980s - sure, some queues at the border, but still, freedom of movement and a single market and customs union, which is just what people want - Britain has already sold out Gibraltar. What do you think is more important to people who live there? Being able to have a job and to travel freely in the area, or a GCHQ facility and the British military having rights there?
    Nobody has "betrayed" anybody. We held a democratic vote and decided we wanted to leave the European Union. That's all that has happened.

    Now of course if Gibraltar is particularly unhappy with their situation after we leave the EU they can hold a referendum to leave the United Kingdom and do something else if they wish.
    The rock voted 99% to stay British in 2002
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    RobD said:

    Cyan said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    I see it differently - the EU has kicked Gibraltar into the long grass and it only becomes an issue with Spain after we've left. The more excitable members of Remain (we'll sell out Gib) and Leave (war after Spanish invasion) have temporarily lost their senses, whatever they had remaining of them...it is to be hoped they recover them.....
    In terms of how people have actually been living in Gibraltar since the 1980s - sure, some queues at the border, but still, freedom of movement and a single market and customs union, which is just what people want - Britain has already sold out Gibraltar. What do you think is more important to people who live there? Being able to have a job and to travel freely in the area, or a GCHQ facility and the British military having rights there?
    Again, Gibraltar is outside the customs union.

    And I don't think this will change their attitude regarding their current constitutional arrangement.
    Their chief minister certainly doesn't seem to think so. At present there appears to be minority core of people who seem to think they ought to change their minds, given how they overwhelmingly voted in the EU referendum, but that does not appear to be forthcoming. People prioritise in different ways.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    Cyan said:

    RobD said:

    Cyan said:

    Meanwhile the governing party in Scotland is threatening to hold an illegal plebiscite. What happens if the other parties boycott it? Will the governing party declare the result of a plebiscite of its own supporters - plus some clinging-to-the-past "let's stop climate change" Green nutters - to be legitimate? What happens if the Orange Order turn up at the illegal polling stations with pickaxe handles to try to prevent such a flagrant breach of the Scotland Act?

    Everything seems to be going the Kremlin's way.

    They've actually threatened to hold one?
    Yes, on 31 March, so not an April Fool's joke:

    "(T)here appears to be no rational reason for you to stand in the way of the will of the Scottish Parliament and I hope you will not do so."

    "However, in anticipation of your refusal to enter into discussions at this stage, it is important for me to be clear about my position."

    "It is my firm view that the mandate of the Scottish Parliament must be respected and progressed. The question is not if, but how."

    "I hope that will be by constructive discussion between our governments. However, if that is not yet possible, I will set out to the Scottish Parliament the steps I intend to take to ensure that progress is made towards a referendum."
    Hm, I dont think that necessarily means a wildcat referendum.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    The Guardian taking Lord Howard out of context and putting the worst possible spin on what he said? Fancy that... ;)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Cyan said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    I see it differently - the EU has kicked Gibraltar into the long grass and it only becomes an issue with Spain after we've left. The more excitable members of Remain (we'll sell out Gib) and Leave (war after Spanish invasion) have temporarily lost their senses, whatever they had remaining of them...it is to be hoped they recover them.....
    In terms of how people have actually been living in Gibraltar since the 1980s - sure, some queues at the border, but still, freedom of movement and a single market and customs union, which is just what people want - Britain has already sold out Gibraltar. What do you think is more important to people who live there? Being able to have a job and to travel freely in the area, or a GCHQ facility and the British military having rights there?
    Around 99% of the population wish to retain the UK connection over any other alternatives. This is pretty much common knowledge - maybe you should try posting on something you know about.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Cyan said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    I see it differently - the EU has kicked Gibraltar into the long grass and it only becomes an issue with Spain after we've left. The more excitable members of Remain (we'll sell out Gib) and Leave (war after Spanish invasion) have temporarily lost their senses, whatever they had remaining of them...it is to be hoped they recover them.....
    In terms of how people have actually been living in Gibraltar since the 1980s - sure, some queues at the border, but still, freedom of movement and a single market and customs union, which is just what people want - Britain has already sold out Gibraltar. What do you think is more important to people who live there? Being able to have a job and to travel freely in the area, or a GCHQ facility and the British military having rights there?
    Being British. See the relevant Mugabe-esque referendum results over the years for evidence.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is there a Rallings&Thrasher prediction for Labour's share of the vote?

    Alas no, they only give the Tory and UKIP share in The Sunday Times.

    Mike and I have asked the good professors both for a full breakdown.
    R&T are basing their predictions on council by-elections and Curtice, I assume as I haven't heard his actual words, is basing his 12% swing on the change in opinion polls since 2013.

    It will be interesting to see who is right - if its Curtice Labour are going to lose 300+ councillors.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Whatever happens, Corbyn will limp on. In fact, he will be positively emboldened with one or two of the mayoral election results. Nothing will shift him. I'm not even sure a landslide GE defeat would move him. The far left foamers would still ensure he won a leadership election. Labour has turned into a Shakespearean tragedy (or comedy, take your pick).
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    You lost me at "The Guardian is reporting..."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    Obviously what is behind the EU comments is Spain's desire to one day change the constitutional settlement in Gibraltar. Some on our side are overselling that possibility, and others are, perhaps, overdoing the 'we'll stick up for the rights of our citizens there' in response, when it won't really come up unless the people there have drastically changed their stance, which seems improbable, even with the EU vote.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:



    Also, I know most seats won't change hands, but there's good news for Labour, as those seat change predictions look low

    That's only because Labour don't start off with much in this set of elections anyway, because they're mostly in rural shire counties (the types of places where Labour were behind even at Peak Blair).

    The one saving grace for Labour is that a terrible result this year, while it will be a damaging indication of how unpopular they are, it won't affect their long-term "infrastructure" much since they have so little to lose in these sorts of areas. But they are going to need a big turnaround by the 2018 elections (with a pretty obvious solution...), because if they do terribly then as well, then they really will be losing tons of councillors in places where Labour NEEDS to do well in General Elections.
    Although there are some areas which are Labour bastions where defeat would hit at the infrastructure. Thinking of Co. Durham, parts of Northumberland, and the ex-mining bits of Notts and Derbyshire.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    I'll only really worry about Gibraltar when Spain goes big and reveals that we are in violation of the treaty due to GeoffM personally.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Cyan said:

    RobD said:

    Cyan said:

    Meanwhile the governing party in Scotland is threatening to hold an illegal plebiscite. What happens if the other parties boycott it? Will the governing party declare the result of a plebiscite of its own supporters - plus some clinging-to-the-past "let's stop climate change" Green nutters - to be legitimate? What happens if the Orange Order turn up at the illegal polling stations with pickaxe handles to try to prevent such a flagrant breach of the Scotland Act?

    Everything seems to be going the Kremlin's way.

    They've actually threatened to hold one?
    Yes, on 31 March, so not an April Fool's joke. From Sturgeon's letter:

    "(T)here appears to be no rational reason for you to stand in the way of the will of the Scottish Parliament and I hope you will not do so."

    "However, in anticipation of your refusal to enter into discussions at this stage, it is important for me to be clear about my position."

    "It is my firm view that the mandate of the Scottish Parliament must be respected and progressed. The question is not if, but how."

    "I hope that will be by constructive discussion between our governments. However, if that is not yet possible, I will set out to the Scottish Parliament the steps I intend to take to ensure that progress is made towards a referendum."

    (T)here appears to be no rational reason...

    But there are several rational reasons. Including that they've just held a referendum (and knew about a potential Brexit) and still lost. Also that the issues with Brexit will need to be sorted first to even know what iScot might look like.

    Since the first few words are so wrong, there's little point considering the rest.


  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    I suspect Howard was just saying that Theresa's commitment to Gibraltar goes as far as possible in the Brexit era - up to and (theoretically) including armed conflict. (Let's not be like the Leave campaign and completely fabricate the existence of WAR!!!! rhetoric in Dave's speech.) Nevertheless even to mention WAR!!!! doesn't help matters in these sensitive times. Howard needs to duck out for a bit and let things simmer down.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    GIN1138 said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    The Guardian taking Lord Howard out of context and putting the worst possible spin on what he said? Fancy that... ;)
    What d'ye think Michael was trying to say?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39472438
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    GeoffM said:

    Cyan said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    I see it differently - the EU has kicked Gibraltar into the long grass and it only becomes an issue with Spain after we've left. The more excitable members of Remain (we'll sell out Gib) and Leave (war after Spanish invasion) have temporarily lost their senses, whatever they had remaining of them...it is to be hoped they recover them.....
    In terms of how people have actually been living in Gibraltar since the 1980s - sure, some queues at the border, but still, freedom of movement and a single market and customs union, which is just what people want - Britain has already sold out Gibraltar. What do you think is more important to people who live there? Being able to have a job and to travel freely in the area, or a GCHQ facility and the British military having rights there?
    Being British. See the relevant Mugabe-esque referendum results over the years for evidence.
    The EU referendum result was so Mugabe-esque that the BBC even did an article wondering who the 823 people were who voted to Leave.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-36612989
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    This was worrying some earlier:

    Adam Fleming‏ @adamfleming
    £490m is the estimated cost of producing #Passports for ten years from 2019, not the price tag for making them blue.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Theuniondivvie said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    The Guardian taking Lord Howard out of context and putting the worst possible spin on what he said? Fancy that... ;)
    What d'ye think Michael was trying to say?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39472438
    See @Stark_Dawning post under yours. ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    MarkSenior said:

    2013 actual vote share in the English elections up this year

    Con 34.5%
    Lab 21.3%
    UKIP 20.2%
    LDem 13,7%
    Green 3.4%
    BNP 0.3%
    Ind/Others 6.6%

    and 2009 actual vote shares

    Con 43.5%
    LDem 24.7%
    Lab 13.5%
    UKIP 4.6%
    Green 4.4%
    BNP 2.5%
    Ind/Others 6.8%

    My forecast for this year

    Con 41
    LDem 21
    Lab 18
    UKIP 9
    Green 4
    Ind/Others 7

    A 12 pt swing would be something like Lab 10.3, Con 47.5 :o
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Stephen Bush‏Verified account @stephenkb 5m5 minutes ago
    More
    What's actually happened so far: two reasonable letters have been sent, a former Tory leader has gone OTT on telly. That's it.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    GeoffM said:

    Cyan said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    I see it differently - the EU has kicked Gibraltar into the long grass and it only becomes an issue with Spain after we've left. The more excitable members of Remain (we'll sell out Gib) and Leave (war after Spanish invasion) have temporarily lost their senses, whatever they had remaining of them...it is to be hoped they recover them.....
    In terms of how people have actually been living in Gibraltar since the 1980s - sure, some queues at the border, but still, freedom of movement and a single market and customs union, which is just what people want - Britain has already sold out Gibraltar. What do you think is more important to people who live there? Being able to have a job and to travel freely in the area, or a GCHQ facility and the British military having rights there?
    Being British. See the relevant Mugabe-esque referendum results over the years for evidence.
    I will allow you the 1967 referendum in support of that thesis, on the assumption that they knew that the alternative to voting the way they did was Spain closing the border, which happened two years later. But not the 2002 result. People there have been living with an internal EU border since 1985 and full freedom of movement rights and residence since 1992 - a quarter of a century ago - which they didn't have when Spain was ruled by Franco.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    I suspect Howard was just saying that Theresa's commitment to Gibraltar goes as far as possible in the Brexit era - up to and (theoretically) including armed conflict. (Let's not be like the Leave campaign and completely fabricate the existence of WAR!!!! rhetoric in Dave's speech.) Nevertheless even to mention WAR!!!! doesn't help matters in these sensitive times. Howard needs to duck out for a bit and let things simmer down.
    It was Cameron who said voting LEAVE would risk World War Three.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    GIN1138 said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    The Guardian taking Lord Howard out of context and putting the worst possible spin on what he said? Fancy that... ;)

    Bloody Guardian ...
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/02/theresa-may-would-go-war-defend-sovereignty-gibraltar-says-michael/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    I suspect Howard was just saying that Theresa's commitment to Gibraltar goes as far as possible in the Brexit era - up to and (theoretically) including armed conflict. (Let's not be like the Leave campaign and completely fabricate the existence of WAR!!!! rhetoric in Dave's speech.) Nevertheless even to mention WAR!!!! doesn't help matters in these sensitive times. Howard needs to duck out for a bit and let things simmer down.
    Perhaps the tough rhetoric against 'Spanish speaking' countries is all part of Theresa May's plan to ingratiate herself with Trump so they can lead the world together.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    Theuniondivvie said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    The Guardian taking Lord Howard out of context and putting the worst possible spin on what he said? Fancy that... ;)
    What d'ye think Michael was trying to say?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39472438
    In fairness, Howard doesn't mention WAR!!!!, but the talk of 'resolve' against 'another Spanish speaking country' was unfortunate. Argentina was ruled by a quasi-fascist military junta at the time; I imagine the wounds of Franco and the civil war are still raw in the now fully democratic Spain. That kind of juxtaposition is unhelpful to our cause.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    MarkSenior said:

    2013 actual vote share in the English elections up this year

    Con 34.5%
    Lab 21.3%
    UKIP 20.2%
    LDem 13,7%
    Green 3.4%
    BNP 0.3%
    Ind/Others 6.6%

    and 2009 actual vote shares

    Con 43.5%
    LDem 24.7%
    Lab 13.5%
    UKIP 4.6%
    Green 4.4%
    BNP 2.5%
    Ind/Others 6.8%

    My forecast for this year

    Con 41
    LDem 21
    Lab 18
    UKIP 9
    Green 4
    Ind/Others 7

    A 12 pt swing would be something like Lab 10.3, Con 47.5 :o
    Paradoxically the Lab support in Shire counties is often far left, and at bedrock. See Witney for example.

    Of course the implication is that the underlying Lab position is even weaker than these seats will imply.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    David_Evershed said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    I suspect Howard was just saying that Theresa's commitment to Gibraltar goes as far as possible in the Brexit era - up to and (theoretically) including armed conflict. (Let's not be like the Leave campaign and completely fabricate the existence of WAR!!!! rhetoric in Dave's speech.) Nevertheless even to mention WAR!!!! doesn't help matters in these sensitive times. Howard needs to duck out for a bit and let things simmer down.
    It was Cameron who said voting LEAVE would risk World War Three.
    I dont think he forecast our Jingoistic Brexiteers starting it!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    David_Evershed said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    I suspect Howard was just saying that Theresa's commitment to Gibraltar goes as far as possible in the Brexit era - up to and (theoretically) including armed conflict. (Let's not be like the Leave campaign and completely fabricate the existence of WAR!!!! rhetoric in Dave's speech.) Nevertheless even to mention WAR!!!! doesn't help matters in these sensitive times. Howard needs to duck out for a bit and let things simmer down.
    It was Cameron who said voting LEAVE would risk World War Three.
    No we've debunked that. Even Leavers on here accept Dave never uttered it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    williamglenn said:

    GeoffM said:

    Cyan said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:


    Do people get what is happening here?.

    Yes - Spain are playing silly buggers, the EU is giving them the opportunity to do so because they naturally are willing to back up their member, and we are overreacting. The Gibraltarians seems to know this better than anyone.
    I see it differently - the EU has kicked Gibraltar into the long grass and it only becomes an issue with Spain after we've left. The more excitable members of Remain (we'll sell out Gib) and Leave (war after Spanish invasion) have temporarily lost their senses, whatever they had remaining of them...it is to be hoped they recover them.....
    In terms of how people have actually been living in Gibraltar since the 1980s - sure, some queues at the border, but still, freedom of movement and a single market and customs union, which is just what people want - Britain has already sold out Gibraltar. What do you think is more important to people who live there? Being able to have a job and to travel freely in the area, or a GCHQ facility and the British military having rights there?
    Being British. See the relevant Mugabe-esque referendum results over the years for evidence.
    The EU referendum result was so Mugabe-esque that the BBC even did an article wondering who the 823 people were who voted to Leave.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-36612989
    I feel bad for the 3 people who voted to change the situation in the Falklands. I mean, the other people must know who they are, right?

    I'm sure I read a suggestion one of the 3 at least actually wanted independence.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21750909
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    GIN1138 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    The Guardian taking Lord Howard out of context and putting the worst possible spin on what he said? Fancy that... ;)
    What d'ye think Michael was trying to say?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39472438
    See @Stark_Dawning post under yours. ;)
    He appears to have gone straight to the task force, heir to Maggie, duff up the Spics stuff with no intervening ramping up, obviously forgotten the 'speak softly' component of the old saw.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    The Guardian taking Lord Howard out of context and putting the worst possible spin on what he said? Fancy that... ;)
    What d'ye think Michael was trying to say?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39472438
    In fairness, Howard doesn't mention WAR!!!!, but the talk of 'resolve' against 'another Spanish speaking country' was unfortunate. Argentina was ruled by a quasi-fascist military junta at the time; I imagine the wounds of Franco and the civil war are still raw in the now fully democratic Spain. That kind of juxtaposition is unhelpful to our cause.

    It's utter insanity. Spain is a democracy, an ally and an important trading partner.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    David_Evershed said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    I suspect Howard was just saying that Theresa's commitment to Gibraltar goes as far as possible in the Brexit era - up to and (theoretically) including armed conflict. (Let's not be like the Leave campaign and completely fabricate the existence of WAR!!!! rhetoric in Dave's speech.) Nevertheless even to mention WAR!!!! doesn't help matters in these sensitive times. Howard needs to duck out for a bit and let things simmer down.
    It was Cameron who said voting LEAVE would risk World War Three.
    Except he didn't.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    AlastairMeeks said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    I suspect Howard was just saying that Theresa's commitment to Gibraltar goes as far as possible in the Brexit era - up to and (theoretically) including armed conflict. (Let's not be like the Leave campaign and completely fabricate the existence of WAR!!!! rhetoric in Dave's speech.) Nevertheless even to mention WAR!!!! doesn't help matters in these sensitive times. Howard needs to duck out for a bit and let things simmer down.
    It was Cameron who said voting LEAVE would risk World War Three.
    Except he didn't.
    You forgot to say 'Fake News'. It's 2017, that's the proper way to point out errors now.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    Pulpstar said:

    MarkSenior said:

    2013 actual vote share in the English elections up this year

    Con 34.5%
    Lab 21.3%
    UKIP 20.2%
    LDem 13,7%
    Green 3.4%
    BNP 0.3%
    Ind/Others 6.6%

    and 2009 actual vote shares

    Con 43.5%
    LDem 24.7%
    Lab 13.5%
    UKIP 4.6%
    Green 4.4%
    BNP 2.5%
    Ind/Others 6.8%

    My forecast for this year

    Con 41
    LDem 21
    Lab 18
    UKIP 9
    Green 4
    Ind/Others 7

    A 12 pt swing would be something like Lab 10.3, Con 47.5 :o
    The Conservative lead in the opinion polls is greater now than it was in April / May 2009 so if the local elections match them that's possible.

    Especially as the areas where Labour is doing relatively well - London and other metropolitan cities don't have local elections.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    AlastairMeeks said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    I suspect Howard was just saying that Theresa's commitment to Gibraltar goes as far as possible in the Brexit era - up to and (theoretically) including armed conflict. (Let's not be like the Leave campaign and completely fabricate the existence of WAR!!!! rhetoric in Dave's speech.) Nevertheless even to mention WAR!!!! doesn't help matters in these sensitive times. Howard needs to duck out for a bit and let things simmer down.
    It was Cameron who said voting LEAVE would risk World War Three.
    Except he didn't.

    Apparently he intended too, but when it was laughed at in the press releases he toned it down.

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Got canvassed by a Labour member today. In Ealing, london.

    Asked me if I was a Labour voter......LOL.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Cyan said:

    Meanwhile the governing party in Scotland is threatening to hold an illegal plebiscite. What happens if the other parties boycott it? Will the governing party declare the result of a plebiscite of its own supporters - plus some clinging-to-the-past "let's stop climate change" Green nutters - to be legitimate? What happens if the Orange Order turn up at the illegal polling stations with pickaxe handles to try to prevent such a flagrant breach of the Scotland Act?

    Everything seems to be going the Kremlin's way.

    How many times do you refer to the orange odour?
    Are they your last hope for the union.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    AlastairMeeks said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    I suspect Howard was just saying that Theresa's commitment to Gibraltar goes as far as possible in the Brexit era - up to and (theoretically) including armed conflict. (Let's not be like the Leave campaign and completely fabricate the existence of WAR!!!! rhetoric in Dave's speech.) Nevertheless even to mention WAR!!!! doesn't help matters in these sensitive times. Howard needs to duck out for a bit and let things simmer down.
    It was Cameron who said voting LEAVE would risk World War Three.
    Except he didn't.
    Blame the right wing press:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/brexit-could-trigger-world-war-7928607
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    another_richard said:



    Especially as the areas where Labour (*) doing relatively well - London and other metropolitan cities don't have local elections.

    (*) Going backwards relatively slower than average because they're losing votes to the Lib Dems rather than the Tories so any swing effect is halved.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Recidivist said:

    The Guardian is reporting that Michael Howard is threatening war with Spain over Gibraltar. A bit surprised, he always seemed pretty sensible.

    I suspect Howard was just saying that Theresa's commitment to Gibraltar goes as far as possible in the Brexit era - up to and (theoretically) including armed conflict. (Let's not be like the Leave campaign and completely fabricate the existence of WAR!!!! rhetoric in Dave's speech.) Nevertheless even to mention WAR!!!! doesn't help matters in these sensitive times. Howard needs to duck out for a bit and let things simmer down.
    It was Cameron who said voting LEAVE would risk World War Three.
    Except he didn't.
    You forgot to say 'Fake News'. It's 2017, that's the proper way to point out errors now.
    Carefully avoided.

    It was Boris Johnson who mentioned WW3.
This discussion has been closed.