We'd be free to do exactly what we want in every respect, and there's no doubt we would go for a low tax, ruthless, hugely capitalist model. It would be our best and only hope.
*cough*
Apart from the WTO terms we need to negotiate.
That can be vetoed by other members.
Like Argentina
Oh, Fu...
Remind us who won in 1982
Do you think Scotty wanted Mrs T to "negotiate" with Argentina in '82?
The more accurate parallel would be the negotiations over the Falklands before 1982. Mrs Thatchers govt in 1980 proposed a leaseback arrangement for example:
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
As Andrew Rawnsley said in the Observer today, it's not a game of poker where you can bluff based on the strength of your hand, and one side wins all. Of course, he blamed it all on Theresa May, but in fact it's the EU that's treating this like a game of poker; she has been clear that she wants a win-win deal.
But if a good deal is not available, then it's not available. It will be a lose-lose in that case.
Hmm. Given I have been one of those who has been pointing out that whole Gibraltar episode is a storm in a teacup I would politely suggest that your sabbatical has left you with a little sunstroke. At least it certainly does appear your senses are somewhat addled.
We'd be free to do exactly what we want in every respect, and there's no doubt we would go for a low tax, ruthless, hugely capitalist model. It would be our best and only hope.
What many who were concerned at the apparent threat of veto by other WTO members may have missed was the rather narrow basis on which one country can in practice object to the new WTO schedules of another.
As Cambridge trade law academic Dr Lorand Bartels explains (in the fascinating comments under that post by Mr Braithwaite – some of the best “below the line” comments I have seen on any post):
The other 163 WTO Members (actually, 27 of these are EU Member States, so there are fewer voices than that) do not have a veto over the UK’s scheduled commitments.
They do have a veto over the certification of these schedules. But certification has merely evidentiary weight. It is like coronation. The UK’s scheduled commitments exist even if they are not certified, just as a monarch is a monarch prior to coronation. Indeed, the EU itself has not traded under certified schedules since 1974. The sky has not fallen.
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
As Andrew Rawnsley said in the Observer today, it's not a game of poker where you can bluff based on the strength of your hand, and one side wins all. Of course, he blamed it all on Theresa May, but in fact it's the EU that's treating this like a game of poker; she has been clear that she wants a win-win deal.
But if a good deal is not available, then it's not available. It will be a lose-lose in that case.
I have always said that hard Brexit is the default outcome. The only question is how (and whether) we are prepared for it.
And the EU aren't aiming for an amicable settlement. They are aiming for a settlement substantially on their terms. It's business.
Will they get one? Providing EU Parliament or some other faction doesn't muck up, I think they will, based on the draft framework issued on Friday. It's a very clever negotiating strategy which concedes just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep them on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
It's not clever at all, it's extremely stupid, based on a series of political miscalculations, for multiple reasons:
1. If this is going to work out to both sides' benefit, both sides need to get on with discussing the real issue, which is the post-Brexit deal. Time is of the essence, for both sides - not just for the UK, as they seem to think.
2. The EU27 think that a chaotic crash-out would hurt the UK more than them. That is true, but that will be of little consolation to them if it happens, because they will still be badly hit. They seem to be in la-la land about this (much like the Brexiteers were when they were telling us we could leave without much damage).
3. They are manoeuvring themselves into a position where it may be impossible for them to agree a reasonable deal, most notably with their completely bonkers exit payment demand.
4. Bringing Gibraltar into the equation is highly provocative and completely unnecessary. What on earth were they thinking?
I think SouthamObserver was absolutely right on this. They were actually making sure Gibraltar was completely off the table by insisting it was a matter to be decided at a future date after Brexit negotiations were completed rather than as part of them. If our ministers, papers and more than a few on here had shown a little bit of common sense they would have seen this and realised this was doing us (and the negotiations) a considerable service
Hmm. Given I have been one of those who has been pointing out that whole Gibraltar episode is a storm in a teacup I would politely suggest that your sabbatical has left you with a little sunstroke. At least it certainly does appear your senses are somewhat addled.
Hmm. Given I have been one of those who has been pointing out that whole Gibraltar episode is a storm in a teacup I would politely suggest that your sabbatical has left you with a little sunstroke. At least it certainly does appear your senses are somewhat addled.
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
Will they get one? Providing EU Parliament or some other faction doesn't muck up, I think they will, based on the draft framework issued on Friday. It's a very clever negotiating strategy which concedes just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep them on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
It's not clever at all, it's extremely stupid, based on a series of political miscalculations, for multiple reasons:
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
Or riot. It is easy to take it on the chin when you earn more than the Prime Minister
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
Knuckled down and elected a landslide Socialist government. I have no doubt we would knuckle down, but beware the whirlwind that would result! btw if you think you will have sex with lesbians, consider investing your £ in a Queer Studies course
Hmm, not sure that Tusk has been sensible on this point. It was a miscalculation of quite spectacular proportions to bring Gibraltar into the equation. They've probably just torpedoed the chance of an amicable settlement (not that that was very high, given the rest of their negotiating position).
And the EU aren't aiming for an amicable settlement. They are aiming for a settlement substantially on their terms. It's business.
Will they get one? Providing EU Parliament or some other faction doesn't muck up, I think they will, based on the draft framework issued on Friday. It's a very clever negotiating strategy which concedes just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep them on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
Or they utterly miscalculate, and under-estimate our willingness to say Fuck off, and walk away, with no deal at all. No money changes hands. Nowt.
This sentiment grows daily on the British side. So we'd take a 5-10% cut in GDP? So fucking what. Life goes on. No one dies. We'd be free to do exactly what we want in every respect, and there's no doubt we would go for a low tax, ruthless, hugely capitalist model. It would be our best and only hope.
I can't see May and Hammond going for a low tax, ruthless, hugely capitalist model, at most there would be a corporation tax cut. The likely outcome in my view is we agree a few bilateral agreements in a few areas with some continued budget contributions to the EU and the rest goes to WTO terms after both sides push each other to the brink over the 2 year period until we officially leave which lasts us for a decade or so and then Labour finally get in again and take us back into the single market which is where we will probably stay, still outside the EU and having got some control of EU immigration in the meantime
We'd be free to do exactly what we want in every respect, and there's no doubt we would go for a low tax, ruthless, hugely capitalist model. It would be our best and only hope.
*cough*
Apart from the WTO terms we need to negotiate.
That can be vetoed by other members.
Like Argentina
Oh, Fu...
Remind us who won in 1982
Do you think Scotty wanted Mrs T to "negotiate" with Argentina in '82?
The more accurate parallel would be the negotiations over the Falklands before 1982. Mrs Thatchers govt in 1980 proposed a leaseback arrangement for example:
Indeed it was these negotiations over sovereignty that led the Argies to think that we didn't really want the Islands.
I'm guessing Spain isn't getting the same message from us this time..
I was once told that the best way to deal with a serious mugger, or street robber, is to come across as potentially way more violent and crazy than your assailant. e.g. if he asks for your watch, you start frothing and gibbering and singing and talking about your guns and how you just killed your wife and you need to dump the weapon can you tell me where the moon is????
I have (seriously) used methods like these with street robbers, and they work.
I think that's what we need to to do Europe. They are politely trying to mug us, using their proper legal rights under A50. We need to start salivating weirdly and discussing the unexpected annihilation of European cities under the sign of Aries.
I can confirm that these tactics do work. However....
It's not clever at all, it's extremely stupid, based on a series of political miscalculations, for multiple reasons:
1. If this is going to work out to both sides' benefit, both sides need to get on with discussing the real issue, which is the post-Brexit deal. Time is of the essence, for both sides - not just for the UK, as they seem to think.
Their interest is getting the exit stuff dealt with. Even that's complicated. It's not just the money. By doing it first it gets a focus. But they will cover the trade deal in outline as well.
2. The EU27 think that a chaotic crash-out would hurt the UK more than them. That is true, but that will be of little consolation to them if it happens, because they will still be badly hit. They seem to be in la-la land about this (much like the Brexiteers were when they were telling us we could leave without much damage).
The important thing is that the UK DOESN'T crash out, but that's the UK choice not the EU one. It can't stop the UK being even more stupid than it already has been, but it has built in a discussion of the trade deal which is the UK interest. They don't specify what they will offer or agree to in heads of agreement, but I would imagine and hope it would be the "Canada Plus" arrangement that Britain wants.
While both sides need the deal, the consequences of not achieving it are asymmetrical . It would damage us more than them. More importantly, I disagree with your assessment that time is of the essence for both sides. It is for us; it isn't for them. Long negotiations prolong uncertainty for us: businesses don't know whether they will be operating for a transition period, the new trade deal or cliff edge. Third countries won't want to sign trade deals with us until they know our EU settlement. On the other hand uncertainty for the rEU resolves itself over time. Businesses with supply chains involving the UK have the time to rejig them. That's the weakness of our negotiating position
3. They are manoeuvring themselves into a position where it may be impossible for them to agree a reasonable deal, most notably with their completely bonkers exit payment demand.
As I have just said, time is not on our side. It is in our firm interest to clear things like exit payments out of the way as quickly as possible. It's the cost of Brexit. We may not be sensible however.
4. Bringing Gibraltar into the equation is highly provocative and completely unnecessary. What on earth were they thinking?
You've got it the wrong way round. The draft framework takes Gibraltar OUT of the equation as far as the main Brexit deal is concerned.
Hmm, not sure that Tusk has been sensible on this point. It was a miscalculation of quite spectacular proportions to bring Gibraltar into the equation. They've probably just torpedoed the chance of an amicable settlement (not that that was very high, given the rest of their negotiating position).
And the EU aren't aiming for an amicable settlement. They are aiming for a settlement substantially on their terms. It's business.
Will they get one? Providing EU Parliament or some other faction doesn't muck up, I think they will, based on the draft framework issued on Friday. It's a very clever negotiating strategy which concedes just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep th a bitem on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
Or they utterly miscalculate, and under-estimate our willingness to say Fuck off, and walk away, with no deal at all. No money changes hands. Nowt.
This sentiment grows daily on the British side. So we'd take a 5-10% cut in GDP? So fucking what. Life goes on. No one dies. We'd be free to do exactly what we want in every respect, and there's no doubt we would go for a low tax, ruthless, hugely capitalist model. It would be our best and only hope.
It's possible. The UK's only real interest is a comprehensive trade-only deal with the EU (Canada Plus). But if the EU side says (stage 2 of the negotiations after the payment stuff has been substantially dealt with) you can have your Canada Plus and we are working on it (slowly), how likely is it that the UK would choose to go over the cliff edge AND pass up the only thing it really wants?. And by the time you get to Year 10 (bearing in mind Canada-not-plus has taken fourteen years so far and counting) it will think we have waited so long, we might as well keep going a bit longer.
Mind you, the thing you said last night about the transition deal being limited to three years would fuck everything up if it happened. The important thing is for the EU NOT to punish us. As the affable Mr Tusk pointed out, the EU doesn't need to.
It's only took that long because of negotiating different standards and compliance. We are already 100% compliant as we are already in the single market. There are no tests to meet.
And the EU aren't aiming for an amicable settlement. They are aiming for a settlement substantially on their terms. It's business.
Will they get one? Providing EU Parliament or some other faction doesn't muck up, I think they will, based on the draft framework issued on Friday. It's a very clever negotiating strategy which concedes just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep them on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
It's not clever at all, it's extremely stupid, based on a series of political miscalculations, for multiple reasons:
1. If this is going to work out to both sides' benefit, both sides need to get on with discussing the real issue, which is the post-Brexit deal. Time is of the essence, for both sides - not just for the UK, as they seem to think.
2. The EU27 think that a chaotic crash-out would hurt the UK more than them. That is true, but that will be of little consolation to them if it happens, because they will still be badly hit. They seem to be in la-la land about this (much like the Brexiteers were when they were telling us we could leave without much damage).
3. They are manoeuvring themselves into a position where it may be impossible for them to agree a reasonable deal, most notably with their completely bonkers exit payment demand.
4. Bringing Gibraltar into the equation is highly provocative and completely unnecessary. What on earth were they thinking?
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
Or riot. It is easy to take it on the chin when you earn more than the Prime Minister
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
After the knuckle down, we elected a Labour government with a landslide. A proper one.
We'd be free to do exactly what we want in every respect, and there's no doubt we would go for a low tax, ruthless, hugely capitalist model. It would be our best and only hope.
*cough*
Apart from the WTO terms we need to negotiate.
That can be vetoed by other members.
Like Argentina
Oh, Fu...
Remind us who won in 1982
Do you think Scotty wanted Mrs T to "negotiate" with Argentina in '82?
The more accurate parallel would be the negotiations over the Falklands before 1982. Mrs Thatchers govt in 1980 proposed a leaseback arrangement for example:
Hmm, not sure that Tusk has been sensible on this point. It was a miscalculation of quite spectacular proportions to bring Gibraltar into the equation. They've probably just torpedoed the chance of an amicable settlement (not that that was very high, given the rest of their negotiating position).
And the EU aren't aiming for an amicable settlement. They are aiming for a settlement substantially on their terms. It's business.
Will they get one? Providing EU Parliament or some other faction doesn't muck up, I think they will, based on the draft framework issued on Friday. It's a very clever negotiating strategy which concedes just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep th a bitem on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
Or they utterly miscalculate, and under-estimate our willingness to say Fuck off, and walk away, with no deal at all. No money changes hands. Nowt.
This sentiment grows daily on the British side. So we'd take a 5-10% cut in GDP? So fucking what. Life goes on. No one dies. We'd be free to do exactly what we want in every respect, and there's no doubt we would go for a low tax, ruthless, hugely capitalist model. It would be our best and only hope.
It's possible. The UK's only real interest is a comprehensive trade-only deal with the EU (Canada Plus). But if the EU side says (stage 2 of the negotiations after the payment stuff has been substantially dealt with) you can have your Canada Plus and we are working on it (slowly), how likely is it that the UK would choose to go over the cliff edge AND pass up the only thing it really wants?. And by the time you get to Year 10 (bearing in mind Canada-not-plus has taken fourteen years so far and counting) it will think we have waited so long, we might as well keep going a bit longer.
Mind you, the thing you said last night about the transition deal being limited to three years would fuck everything up if it happened. The important thing is for the EU NOT to punish us. As the affable Mr Tusk pointed out, the EU doesn't need to.
It's only took that long because of negotiating different standards and compliance. We are already 100% compliant as we are already in the single market. There are no tests to meet.
True and that might speed things up. On the other hand the regulatory system in Canada doesn't change with CETA but requires complete bottom up development for us, which will slow things down.
We'd be free to do exactly what we want in every respect, and there's no doubt we would go for a low tax, ruthless, hugely capitalist model. It would be our best and only hope.
*cough*
Apart from the WTO terms we need to negotiate.
That can be vetoed by other members.
Like Argentina
Oh, Fu...
Remind us who won in 1982
Do you think Scotty wanted Mrs T to "negotiate" with Argentina in '82?
The more accurate parallel would be the negotiations over the Falklands before 1982. Mrs Thatchers govt in 1980 proposed a leaseback arrangement for example:
Indeed it was these negotiations over sovereignty that led the Argies to think that we didn't really want the Islands.
I'm guessing Spain isn't getting the same message from us this time..
I was once told that the best way to deal with a serious mugger, or street robber, is to come across as potentially way more violent and crazy than your assailant. e.g. if he asks for your watch, you start frothing and gibbering and singing and talking about your guns and how you just killed your wife and you need to dump the weapon can you tell me where the moon is????
I have (seriously) used methods like these with street robbers, and they work.
I think that's what we need to to do Europe. They are politely trying to mug us, using their proper legal rights under A50. We need to start salivating weirdly and discussing the unexpected annihilation of European cities under the sign of Aries.
I can confirm that these tactics do work. However....
A friend of mine was kidnapped in Africa, and spent the next hours singing "Onward Christian Soldiers" end to end. After 4 hours of this they dumped the crazy Mzungu in a slum.
It is a high risk strategy though. Could have had a bullet.
People are IMO misreading the negotiations, which haven't even started yet. It's absolutely normal to start off with irreconcilable conditions. Next comes a deadlock. Then a crisis. Then a walkout. Then last-minute further talks. And finally a fudge.
It's how Europe has worked for years, and I suspect the UK will go along with it, because the alternatives are too unwelcome to May, who in the end is a pragmatist.
On another subject, I'm off tomorrow to Mauritius, mostly for talks with MPs about the use of monkeys for experiments. But I'll probably have a day free. I'm not intereted in lying on beaches. Do PBers have any suggestions on things to see?
We need to start salivating weirdly and discussing the unexpected annihilation of European cities under the sign of Aries.
Michael Howard, waaayyyy ahead of you
Fair play to Mr Howard, indeed. Also Michael Heseltine, oddly using the same tactic
We better get some aircrafts on those carriers. Better still, let's sack another 50000 from the Army, Navy and the Marines and finish building the carriers.............
People are IMO misreading the negotiations, which haven't even started yet. It's absolutely normal to start off with irreconcilable conditions. Next comes a deadlock. Then a crisis. Then a walkout. Then last-minute further talks. And finally a fudge.
It's how Europe has worked for years, and I suspect the UK will go along with it, because the alternatives are too unwelcome to May, who in the end is a pragmatist.
On another subject, I'm off tomorrow to Mauritius, mostly for talks with MPs about the use of monkeys for experiments. But I'll probably have a day free. I'm not intereted in lying on beaches. Do PBers have any suggestions on things to see?
Mostly agree. However fudges are for internal agreements, from what I have seen. Externally, which is what this negotiation will be, because we're out of the EU, the EU tends to be pretty hard-edged.
People are IMO misreading the negotiations, which haven't even started yet. It's absolutely normal to start off with irreconcilable conditions. Next comes a deadlock. Then a crisis. Then a walkout. Then last-minute further talks. And finally a fudge.
It's how Europe has worked for years, and I suspect the UK will go along with it, because the alternatives are too unwelcome to May, who in the end is a pragmatist.
On another subject, I'm off tomorrow to Mauritius, mostly for talks with MPs about the use of monkeys for experiments. But I'll probably have a day free. I'm not intereted in lying on beaches. Do PBers have any suggestions on things to see?
And the EU aren't aiming for an amicable settlement. They are aiming for a settlement substantially on their terms. It's business.
Will they get one? Providing EU Parliament or so just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep them on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
It's not clever at all, it's extremely stupid, based on a series of political miscalculations, for multiple reasons:
1. If this is going to work out to both sides' benefit, both sides need to get on with discussing the real issue, which is the post-Brexit deal. Time is of the essence, for both sides - not just for the UK, as they seem to think.
2. The EU27 think that a chaotic crash-out would hurt the UK more than them. That is true, but that will be of little consolation to them if it happens, because they will still be badly hit. They seem to be in la-la land about this (much like the Brexiteers were when they were telling us we could leave without much damage).
3. They are manoeuvring themselves into a position where it may be impossible for them to agree a reasonable deal, most notably with their completely bonkers exit payment demand.
4. Bringing Gibraltar into the equation is highly provocative and completely unnecessary. What on earth were they thinking?
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
Or riot. It is easy to take it on the chin when you earn more than the Prime Minister
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
After the knuckle down, we elected a Labour government with a landslide. A proper one.
People are IMO misreading the negotiations, which haven't even started yet. It's absolutely normal to start off with irreconcilable conditions. Next comes a deadlock. Then a crisis. Then a walkout. Then last-minute further talks. And finally a fudge.
It's how Europe has worked for years, and I suspect the UK will go along with it, because the alternatives are too unwelcome to May, who in the end is a pragmatist.
On another subject, I'm off tomorrow to Mauritius, mostly for talks with MPs about the use of monkeys for experiments. But I'll probably have a day free. I'm not intereted in lying on beaches. Do PBers have any suggestions on things to see?
The fearful talk as though they are one. It's an epic misjudgement.
'Them' are the EU27 - each beholden to their own electorates. They act for their own electorate; the rest is a charade that they rely on having zero domestic cost.
And the EU aren't aiming for an amicable settlement. They are aiming for a settlement substantially on their terms. It's business.
Will they get one? Providing EU Parliament or some other faction doesn't muck up, I think they will, based on the draft framework issued on Friday. It's a very clever negotiating strategy which concedes just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep them on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
It's ly with their completely bonkers exit payment demand.
4. Bringing Gibraltar into the equation is highly provocative and completely unnecessary. What on earth were they thinking?
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
Or riot. It is easy to take it on the chin when you earn more than the Prime Minister
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
After the knuckle down, we elected a Labour government with a landslide. A proper one.
And if that happens after Proper Hard Brexit, then I salute the British people, for making their sovereign choice as a nation.
That's what Brexit MEANS. We get to choose, again, how we are governed, and under what laws. We can be North Korea or Singapore. WE CHOOSE. But the British people will decide, not a pseudoelite of unelected, unremovable, often criminal and always overpaid smug fat twats in Brussels.
This is the one thing Tony Benn got right. Brussels means you can't throw out the people that govern you. It was fundamentally wrong. We were right to LEAVE.
And the EU aren't aiming for an amicable settlement. They are aiming for a settlement substantially on their terms. It's business.
Providing EU Parliament or so just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep them on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
It's not clever at all, it's extremely stupid, based on a series of political miscalculations, for multiple reasons:
1. If this is going to work out to both sides' benefit, both sides need to get on with discussing the real issue, which is the post-Brexit deal. Time is of the essence, for both sides - not just for the UK, as they seem to think.
2. The EU27 think that a chaotic crash-out would hurt the UK more than them. That is true, but that will be of little consolation to them if it happens, because they will still be badly hit. They seem to be in la-la land about this (much like the Brexiteers were when they were telling us we could leave without much damage).
3. They are manoeuvring themselves into a position where it may be impossible for them to agree a reasonable deal, most notably with their completely bonkers exit payment demand.
4. Bringing Gibraltar into the equation is highly provocative and completely unnecessary. What on earth were they thinking?
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
Or riot. It is easy to take it on the chin when you earn more than the Prime Minister
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
After the knuckle down, we elected a Labour government with a landslide. A proper one.
And they lasted only full term
Actually they increased their votes. It was, as usual, the FPTP which did it for them.
And the EU aren't aiming for an amicable settlement. They are aiming for a settlement substantially on their terms. It's business.
Will they get one? Providing EU Parliament or so just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep them on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
It's not clever at all, it's extremely stupid, based on a series of political miscalculations, for multiple reasons:
1. If this is going to work out to both sides' benefit, both sides need to get on with discussing the real issue, which is the post-Brexit deal. Time is of the essence, for both sides - not just for the UK, as they seem to think.
2. The EU27 think that a chaotic crash-out would hurt the UK more than them. That is true, but that will be of little consolation to them if it happens, because they will still be badly hit. They seem to be in la-la land about this (much like the Brexiteers were when they were telling us we could leave without much damage).
3. They are manoeuvring themselves into a position where it may be impossible for them to agree a reasonable deal, most notably with their completely bonkers exit payment demand.
4. Bringing Gibraltar into the equation is highly provocative and completely unnecessary. What on earth were they thinking?
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
Or riot. It is easy to take it on the chin when you earn more than the Prime Minister
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
After the knuckle down, we elected a Labour government with a landslide. A proper one.
And the EU aren't aiming for an amicable settlement. They are aiming for a settlement substantially on their terms. It's business.
Will they get one? Providing EU Parliament or some other faction doesn't muck up, I think they will, based on the draft framework issued on Friday. It's a very clever negotiating strategy which concedes just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep them on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
It's ly with their completely bonkers exit payment demand.
4. Bringing Gibraltar into the equation is highly provocative and completely unnecessary. What on earth were they thinking?
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
Or riot. It is easy to take it on the chin when you earn more than the Prime Minister
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
After the knuckle down, we elected a Labour government with a landslide. A proper one.
And if that happens after Proper Hard Brexit, then I salute the British people, for making their sovereign choice as a nation.
That's what Brexit MEANS. We get to choose, again, how we are governed, and under what laws. We can be North Korea or Singapore. WE CHOOSE. But the British people will decide, not a pseudoelite of unelected, unremovable, often criminal and always overpaid smug fat twats in Brussels.
This is the one thing Tony Benn got right. Brussels means you can't throw out the people that govern you. It was fundamentally wrong. We were right to LEAVE.
People are IMO misreading the negotiations, which haven't even started yet. It's absolutely normal to start off with irreconcilable conditions. Next comes a deadlock. Then a crisis. Then a walkout. Then last-minute further talks. And finally a fudge.
It's how Europe has worked for years, and I suspect the UK will go along with it, because the alternatives are too unwelcome to May, who in the end is a pragmatist.
On another subject, I'm off tomorrow to Mauritius, mostly for talks with MPs about the use of monkeys for experiments. But I'll probably have a day free. I'm not intereted in lying on beaches. Do PBers have any suggestions on things to see?
Went to Mauritius for a wedding in 2015, go to the Botanical Gardens and the Natural History Museum in Port Louis and the multicoloured earth if you can and also do some snorkelling if you are able
It's possible. The UK's only real interest is a comprehensive trade-only deal with the EU (Canada Plus). But if the EU side says (stage 2 of the negotiations after the payment stuff has been substantially dealt with) you can have your Canada Plus and we are working on it (slowly), how likely is it that the UK would choose to go over the cliff edge AND pass up the only thing it really wants?. And by the time you get to Year 10 (bearing in mind Canada-not-plus has taken fourteen years so far and counting) it will think we have waited so long, we might as well keep going a bit longer.
Mind you, the thing you said last night about the transition deal being limited to three years would fuck everything up if it happened. The important thing is for the EU NOT to punish us. As the affable Mr Tusk pointed out, the EU doesn't need to.
It's only took that long because of negotiating different standards and compliance. We are already 100% compliant as we are already in the single market. There are no tests to meet.
In our humble opinion there may not be BUT it is in the EU interest to let this run for many years whilst we struggle to reach some sort of an agreement. During that time our economy might suffer, the pound might suffer and the money available for Pensions/NHS/sacred cows might have to be cut. The EU is probably thinking that at some point the voters are going to say "who led (or is that lied to) us here" and vote them out because, as is often said, it is the economy that wins elections. Once that turns against the Conservatives then the voters will say "we have left the EU haven't we, so why aren't we better off" (even if negotiations are continuing). Now which party was it that has positioned themselves as the alternative to all this?
And the EU aren't aiming for an amicable settlement. They are aiming for a settlement substantially on their terms. It's business.
Will they get one? Providing EU Parliament or some other faction doesn't muck up, I think they will, based on the draft framework issued on Friday. It's a very clever negotiating strategy which concedes just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep them on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
It's ly with their completely bonkers exit payment demand.
4. Bringing Gibraltar into the equation is highly provocative and completely unnecessary. What on earth were they thinking?
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
Or riot. It is easy to take it on the chin when you earn more than the Prime Minister
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
After the knuckle down, we elected a Labour government with a landslide. A proper one.
And if that happens after Proper Hard Brexit, then I salute the British people, for making their sovereign choice as a nation.
That's what Brexit MEANS. We get to choose, again, how we are governed, and under what laws. We can be North Korea or Singapore. WE CHOOSE. But the British people will decide, not a pseudoelite of unelected, unremovable, often criminal and always overpaid smug fat twats in Brussels.
This is the one thing Tony Benn got right. Brussels means you can't throw out the people that govern you. It was fundamentally wrong. We were right to LEAVE.
Hasta la revolucion siempre!
Where's the Revolution? Come on people, You're letting me down!
We better get some aircrafts on those carriers. Better still, let's sack another 50000 from the Army, Navy and the Marines and finish building the carriers.............
It's OK, the Spanish are flying obsolete aircraft.
It's ly with their completely bonkers exit payment demand.
4. Bringing Gibraltar into the equation is highly provocative and completely unnecessary. What on earth were they thinking?
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
Or riot. It is easy to take it on the chin when you earn more than the Prime Minister
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
After the knuckle down, we elected a Labour government with a landslide. A proper one.
And if that happens after Proper Hard Brexit, then I salute the British people, for making their sovereign choice as a nation.
That's what Brexit MEANS. We get to choose, again, how we are governed, and under what laws. We can be North Korea or Singapore. WE CHOOSE. But the British people will decide, not a pseudoelite of unelected, unremovable, often criminal and always overpaid smug fat twats in Brussels.
This is the one thing Tony Benn got right. Brussels means you can't throw out the people that govern you. It was fundamentally wrong. We were right to LEAVE.
Hasta la revolucion siempre!
Where's the Revolution? Come on people, You're letting me down!
And the EU aren't aiming for an amicable settlement. They are aiming for a settlement substantially on their terms. It's business.
Will they get one? Providing EU Parliament or some other faction doesn't muck up, I think they will, based on the draft framework issued on Friday. It's a very clever negotiating strategy which concedes just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep them on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
It's ly with their completely bonkers exit payment demand.
4. Bringing Gibraltar into the equation is highly provocative and completely unnecessary. What on earth were they thinking?
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
Or riot. It is easy to take it on the chin when you earn more than the Prime Minister
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
After the knuckle down, we elected a Labour government with a landslide. A proper one.
And if that happens after Proper Hard Brexit, then I salute the British people, for making their sovereign choice as a nation.
That's what Brexit MEANS. We get to choose, again, how we are governed, and under what laws. We can be North Korea or Singapore. WE CHOOSE. But the British people will decide, not a pseudoelite of unelected, unremovable, often criminal and always overpaid smug fat twats in Brussels.
This is the one thing Tony Benn got right. Brussels means you can't throw out the people that govern you. It was fundamentally wrong. We were right to LEAVE.
'Them' are the EU27 - each beholden to their own electorates. They act for their own electorate; the rest is a charade that they rely on having zero domestic cost.
That may be true of the EU council negotiators, to some degree. The EU Parliament though? They seem much more inclined towards punishment for leaving the club - and they have a veto.
Comments
But if a good deal is not available, then it's not available. It will be a lose-lose in that case.
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
Will they get one? Providing EU Parliament or some other faction doesn't muck up, I think they will, based on the draft framework issued on Friday. It's a very clever negotiating strategy which concedes just enough to the UK side at the right stages to keep them on board, while allowing the EU side to drive the direction and pace, which will be leisurely.
It's not clever at all, it's extremely stupid, based on a series of political miscalculations, for multiple reasons:
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
Or riot. It is easy to take it on the chin when you earn more than the Prime Minister
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
Knuckled down and elected a landslide Socialist government. I have no doubt we would knuckle down, but beware the whirlwind that would result! btw if you think you will have sex with lesbians, consider investing your £ in a Queer Studies course
WE dare! WE will WIN!
Take your points in turn
It's not clever at all, it's extremely stupid, based on a series of political miscalculations, for multiple reasons:
1. If this is going to work out to both sides' benefit, both sides need to get on with discussing the real issue, which is the post-Brexit deal. Time is of the essence, for both sides - not just for the UK, as they seem to think.
Their interest is getting the exit stuff dealt with. Even that's complicated. It's not just the money. By doing it first it gets a focus. But they will cover the trade deal in outline as well.
2. The EU27 think that a chaotic crash-out would hurt the UK more than them. That is true, but that will be of little consolation to them if it happens, because they will still be badly hit. They seem to be in la-la land about this (much like the Brexiteers were when they were telling us we could leave without much damage).
The important thing is that the UK DOESN'T crash out, but that's the UK choice not the EU one. It can't stop the UK being even more stupid than it already has been, but it has built in a discussion of the trade deal which is the UK interest. They don't specify what they will offer or agree to in heads of agreement, but I would imagine and hope it would be the "Canada Plus" arrangement that Britain wants.
While both sides need the deal, the consequences of not achieving it are asymmetrical . It would damage us more than them. More importantly, I disagree with your assessment that time is of the essence for both sides. It is for us; it isn't for them. Long negotiations prolong uncertainty for us: businesses don't know whether they will be operating for a transition period, the new trade deal or cliff edge. Third countries won't want to sign trade deals with us until they know our EU settlement. On the other hand uncertainty for the rEU resolves itself over time. Businesses with supply chains involving the UK have the time to rejig them. That's the weakness of our negotiating position
3. They are manoeuvring themselves into a position where it may be impossible for them to agree a reasonable deal, most notably with their completely bonkers exit payment demand.
As I have just said, time is not on our side. It is in our firm interest to clear things like exit payments out of the way as quickly as possible. It's the cost of Brexit. We may not be sensible however.
4. Bringing Gibraltar into the equation is highly provocative and completely unnecessary. What on earth were they thinking?
You've got it the wrong way round. The draft framework takes Gibraltar OUT of the equation as far as the main Brexit deal is concerned.
The Tories will have had 15 years in power and you have to assume the pendulum will swing at some point.
Labour will be the one's working out how to spend all those billions of extra money we save not being in the EU... Hope they don't waste it.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/20/article-2662719-1EEE326200000578-499_634x359.jpg
It is a high risk strategy though. Could have had a bullet.
It's how Europe has worked for years, and I suspect the UK will go along with it, because the alternatives are too unwelcome to May, who in the end is a pragmatist.
On another subject, I'm off tomorrow to Mauritius, mostly for talks with MPs about the use of monkeys for experiments. But I'll probably have a day free. I'm not intereted in lying on beaches. Do PBers have any suggestions on things to see?
http://www.mauritian-wildlife.org/application/index.php?tpid=1&tcid=3
I really liked Mauritius. Wonderfully multicultural.
This book is good for the flight.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B009NRBG3Q/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
The fearful talk as though they are one. It's an epic misjudgement.
'Them' are the EU27 - each beholden to their own electorates. They act for their own electorate; the rest is a charade that they rely on having zero domestic cost.
Come on people,
You're letting me down!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsCR05oKROA
Harriers I think they are called...
Agree that the blend of French, British, African and Indian can be quite endearing.
A sundeck trip on a boat on a nice day is always a nice way to while away a day of rest.
It's ly with their completely bonkers exit payment demand.
4. Bringing Gibraltar into the equation is highly provocative and completely unnecessary. What on earth were they thinking?
This is casinoroyale's thesis. And I come to see its merits. The EU has a strong hand which they are about to overplay. They think we won't accept crashing out. Of course we will. We are Britain. We'll take it. We have a self image of stoicism and endurance, we positively welcome blood sweat and tears.
It may be delusional and self harming but that is our national psychology. We don't bend the knee.
And in the end it is very arguable as to whether crashing out would be any worse than some half arse bodge, in the long term. Who can say.
By Crash Brexit we get absolute freedom. London would suffer, in the beginning. But the nation would regain self respect, via self reliance.
Or riot. It is easy to take it on the chin when you earn more than the Prime Minister
Did the British riot during WW2? No, we knuckled down.
The Queen will wave from Buck House, reminding us all to endure, and survive. The total proles can be manipulated via Rupert Murdoch and Lord Dacre, operating in their special underground bunkers directly linked to Number 10.
After the knuckle down, we elected a Labour government with a landslide. A proper one.
And if that happens after Proper Hard Brexit, then I salute the British people, for making their sovereign choice as a nation.
That's what Brexit MEANS. We get to choose, again, how we are governed, and under what laws. We can be North Korea or Singapore. WE CHOOSE. But the British people will decide, not a pseudoelite of unelected, unremovable, often criminal and always overpaid smug fat twats in Brussels.
This is the one thing Tony Benn got right. Brussels means you can't throw out the people that govern you. It was fundamentally wrong. We were right to LEAVE.
Hasta la revolucion siempre!
Where's the Revolution?
Come on people,
You're letting me down!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsCR05oKROA
Was a reply to SeanT, but if you are trying to associate me with Depeche Mode please don't