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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The €60 billion question. The EU exit charge and what it means

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  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,175

    justin124 said:

    Charles said:

    Presumably what applies to the UK on EU liabilities would also apply to an independent Scotland on UK liabilities.

    Why? Is resigning a club the same as dissolving a marriage?

    The same legal argument applies. Nothing would oblige an independent Scotland to meet any liabilities. The issue is much more about the practical consequences of not doing so. As it is for the UK and EU liabilities.

    Not meeting liabilities wouldn't be a great start for a new currency.....let alone government bonds.....might easily prove more expensive than meeting them....

    Of course. And in the same way, the UK walking away from liabilities may prove to be very expensive - as the Lords report states. In both cases it would be a political/economic judgement, not one predicated on the law.

    There is a difference between liabilities.

    One is a debt: there is a fixed obligation which must be paid by someone

    The EU case is a expectation of future expenditure which can be changed.

    But that does not change the legalities. The UK is and will be responsible for its debts. Scotland would no longer be part of the UK. Not agreeing to meet a share may be a bad idea for Scotland, but that is a political/economic judgement for a Scottish government to make.

    Surely the existing UK state ceases to exist if Scotland departs. We would be left with Scotland and rUK.Scotland would have as much liability for the debts of the former UK state as the rUK - on a pro rata basis. Otherwise a decision by England & Wales to leave the UK could result in all the former UK's debts being lumbered on Scotland!
    So would Scotland get 1/10th of a Security Council veto, or would neither state get one?
    What happened when the Soviet Union broke up?
    Russia took on all the debts of the USSR. Is that an analogy that suits your position?
    Link?

    Russia took the Security Council seat. So despite your wishes for the end of the UK, or the stripping of rUK's Security Council position, precedent is completely against you.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5271122.stm

    https://sputniknews.com/russia/2006070150757667/

    Would Scotland be willing to sign the equivalent of the Budapest Memorandum? After all, the UK didn't do much to uphold the original.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,469

    The response to Trump's claim that Obama ordered his telephone be tapped.

    "Ben Rhodes, who was Mr Obama's foreign policy adviser and speechwriter, also addressed Mr Trump's claims in a tweet, saying: "No President can order a wire-tap. Those restrictions were put in place to protect citizens from people like you."

    Killer line.

    :+1:
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    A lot of Tories are giddy at Labours downfall. But what if the only thing propping up the Tories is they are the anti Labour party? If they decline will Tories go down with them? Yes Tories won a majority but 37% is hardly a resounding endorsement. I have the feeling many Tories are waiting for a sensible right wing alternative but ukip aren't it. Something to ponder.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Mr. Mortimer, 2pm. Well, scheduled. He was late last time.

    Ta, Mr Dancer. Lets hope no-one gives him a toy tractor today.

    I'm home alone with the Cockapoo this weekend. It has been 'interesting' as he has become rather wilful since finding his feet here. Roast Chicken is in the oven now; which should cheer both of us up.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Mortimer said:

    When is Fillon speaking? I wouldn't want the cash in on the crossover vs Juppe to clash with lunch....

    Can't see the French allowing anything to clash with lunch.
    Tres bon!
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited March 2017
    (deleted)
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    When is Fillon speaking? I wouldn't want the cash in on the crossover vs Juppe to clash with lunch....

    Can't see the French allowing anything to clash with lunch.
    Tres bon!
    Tres bonbon.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    The good people of Gorton could do the country a favour and elect a LibDem, thereby finally killing off Corbyn's leadership.

    Even better, elect a conservative
    I think LibDems are only ones with a chance in that seat.
    The Lib Dems have a very good chance of winning Gorton and they should unless Balls is the candidate.
    'Very' good. really? Blimey.
    Yes. A very good chance. Students will hold their nose because Brexit is a big threat to the younger generation than fees. Fees is now seven years old. What the Lib Dems did was treacherous but we must not forget it was a Conservative policy.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    The good people of Gorton could do the country a favour and elect a LibDem, thereby finally killing off Corbyn's leadership.

    Even better, elect a conservative
    I think LibDems are only ones with a chance in that seat.
    The Lib Dems have a very good chance of winning Gorton and they should unless Balls is the candidate.
    'Very' good. really? Blimey.
    Yes. A very good chance. Students will hold their nose because Brexit is a big threat to the younger generation than fees. Fees is now seven years old. What the Lib Dems did was treacherous but we must not forget it was a Conservative policy.
    Student fees were first introduced by Labour.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited March 2017

    So would Scotland get 1/10th of a Security Council veto, or would neither state get one?

    Whichever state is considered the continuation of the pre-existing state retains the treaty rights and obligations of the pre-existing state. Given the imbalance in the size of the two states and the fact it would be Scotland choosing to leave the Union, the rUK would almost certainly retain the rights and responsibilities.
    The SNP has said it will leave big-boy stuff like that to the rUK. It's not an issue.

    When the USSR ceased to exist at the end of 1991, the other veto powers declared they accepted that all of the USSR's international rights and responsibilities would now fall to Russia.

    Trust me - a few Jocks who weren't bright or ambitious enough to get jobs down South aren't going to cause anyone much of a problem in this department.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Mortimer, thank Mr. Glenn, I asked the same question earlier and that's the answer he provided.

    Just got your hound recently? Be careful leaving chicken about. The only time the late Kai ever grabbed food was when he very quietly and carefully snaffled a piece of chicken from a plate on the table.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,175

    Grim news:

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War.

    Yes it's all very grim, but were they for Yes or for No? This is a betting site. ;)
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    The good people of Gorton could do the country a favour and elect a LibDem, thereby finally killing off Corbyn's leadership.

    Even better, elect a conservative
    I think LibDems are only ones with a chance in that seat.
    The Lib Dems have a very good chance of winning Gorton and they should unless Balls is the candidate.
    'Very' good. really? Blimey.
    Yes. A very good chance. Students will hold their nose because Brexit is a big threat to the younger generation than fees. Fees is now seven years old. What the Lib Dems did was treacherous but we must not forget it was a Conservative policy.
    Student fees were first introduced by Labour.
    True. Not an eye watering £9000 / year.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    Be all those Braveheart-attacks, being hit with the double whammy of losing the referendum then next year the Tories winning the election....
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Grim news:

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War.

    Yes it's all very grim, but were they for Yes or for No? This is a betting site. ;)
    The oldies wanted the UK.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
    For some kinds of health issue, the NHS has practically broken down in some areas of Scotland.

  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030

    Is canning the flat-rate VAT scheme beginning to smell like one of Osborne's pasty tax wheezes?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/do-punish-productive-creative-people-economy/

    I was on the flat rate system for a few years and it was not really that great a difference in terms of financial benefit. The big benefit for both my company and HMRC was it was very simple. In return for a lower flat rate of VAT you did not reclaim the VAT on any purchases. Since that reclaim system was the one that took up all the time it was certainly attractive to be able to forget about it. Since the scheme only applied to businesses with a turnover of less than £240K a year including VAT it really was only for the smallest operations. The biggest issue when I came off the scheme when my turnover exceeded the limit was not the small increase in VAT I had to pay but the more substantial increase in paperwork and time spent sorting out VAT each quarter.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Am I a bit sleepy, or does this make no sense?: "The Chinese growth target for this year has been cut to around 6.5%, down from 6.5 to 7% last year, Premier Li Keqiang has announced."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-39137294
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,145

    MaxPB said:

    I can't remember the last time I had a McDonald's. I think you'll find the demographics of fast food consumption are concentrated at the poorer end of the scale. And it's not just well off members of the middle class that go to Starbucks. An alternative to paying higher wages across the board, of course, is to employ fewer people and to close outlets. With high employment rates, we are almost certain to see that happen, with smaller businesses most affected. I am all for people getting higher wages, just as I am for higher taxes for the better off. I can afford both. I am lucky.

    Tbh, McDonald's have a price ceiling as well enforced by copious independent chicken and burger shops as well as global competition. It's the restaurants that the likes of you or I would visit that will become more expensive or have to close down unprofitable outlets.

    Follow that thought through to the logical end, we got to businesses closing. What does that do? It drives rents down which means new businesses open with a lower fixed cost base and that pushes employment up again. When wages rise, ultimately it's the rentier classes that pay for it, which is why most of them fought so hard for remain. Their unlimited pool of labour being closed off is going to hurt their yields quite badly.

    Brexit is going to end up achieving what Labour stand for, a more equal society. Hopefully it will also help to achieve a society in which one can work hard and be rewarded as well.

    McDonald's has a price ceiling, I agree. So it is likely to close outlets to reduce costs, rather than pass on any wages increases. Those who work in high end restaurants will also lose their jobs when they close, ditto hotels. High streets across the UK are already full of boarded up outlets and low rent charity shops. We'll just see more of these. As more people look for work, salaries will go down, not up. What Brexit is likely to do is actually increase inequality and entrench the advantages enjoyed by the better off.

    The current economic strategy of government subsidised wealth consumption provided by low paid, low skilled immigrants isn't sustainable.

    So allowing continuing unlimited (and unprepared for) immigration from poorer countries is guaranteed to put downward pressure on salaries - as it has been doing for over a decade.

    And no longer needed retail units in town centres would be better converted into residential accommodation.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799

    Grim news:

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War.

    Yes it's all very grim, but were they for Yes or for No? This is a betting site. ;)
    Since the spike was mainly in the over 75s from the flu they were probably No voting Tory Leavers...

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/news/spikeinnumberofdeathsin2015drivenbyincreasedmortalityinover75s
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432
    tyson said:
    Really? I passed 2 beggars on the way to the gym this morning. Both were clearly on drugs. Both were begging to fund a habit that will kill them. Is giving them money the right thing to do?

    I find this difficult. I want to give but I fear giving it those on drugs is positively harmful. In Edinburgh the problem is different. It is Romanian slaves who are treated appallingly sitting on their bit of cardboard with their mass produced signs. Is giving to them not simply making their enslavement more attractive and profitable and thus even more widespread?

    I really don't know the answer to these questions. I just think it is a bit more complicated than that article suggests.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139
    justin124 said:

    Charles said:

    Presumably what applies to the UK on EU liabilities would also apply to an independent Scotland on UK liabilities.

    Why? Is resigning a club the same as dissolving a marriage?

    The same legal argument applies. Nothing would oblige an independent Scotland to meet any liabilities. The issue is much more about the practical consequences of not doing so. As it is for the UK and EU liabilities.

    Not meeting liabilities wouldn't be a great start for a new currency.....let alone government bonds.....might easily prove more expensive than meeting them....

    Of course. And in the same way, the UK walking away from liabilities may prove to be very expensive - as the Lords report states. In both cases it would be a political/economic judgement, not one predicated on the law.

    There is a difference between liabilities.

    One is a debt: there is a fixed obligation which must be paid by someone

    The EU case is a expectation of future expenditure which can be changed.

    But that does not change the legalities. The UK is and will be responsible for its debts. Scotland would no longer be part of the UK. Not agreeing to meet a share may be a bad idea for Scotland, but that is a political/economic judgement for a Scottish government to make.

    Surely the existing UK state ceases to exist if Scotland departs. We would be left with Scotland and rUK.Scotland would have as much liability for the debts of the former UK state as the rUK - on a pro rata basis. Otherwise a decision by England & Wales to leave the UK could result in all the former UK's debts being lumbered on Scotland!
    Scotland does not borrow money or have any debt, it is not allowed to, it is all done by the UK, LOL.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,328
    Cyan said:

    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
    For some kinds of health issue, the NHS has practically broken down in some areas of Scotland.

    Which health issues are they?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    The good people of Gorton could do the country a favour and elect a LibDem, thereby finally killing off Corbyn's leadership.

    Even better, elect a conservative
    I think LibDems are only ones with a chance in that seat.
    The Lib Dems have a very good chance of winning Gorton and they should unless Balls is the candidate.
    'Very' good. really? Blimey.
    Gorton isn't just red rosette on a donkey territory, it is red rosette on a donkey on a meathook and they'll still win territory. Labour had a total muppet of a candidate in Stoke who FFS had to apologise to his wife and daughter for being a twat. And he still got handily elected.

    Given the make-up of the constituency, about the only way Labour loses is if Corbyn is on YouTube having sloppy seconds with Dave's pig.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Am I a bit sleepy, or does this make no sense?: "The Chinese growth target for this year has been cut to around 6.5%, down from 6.5 to 7% last year, Premier Li Keqiang has announced."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-39137294

    "The Chinese growth target for this year has been cut to [around 6.5%], down from [6.5 to 7%] last year, Premier Li Keqiang has announced."

    i.e. it has fallen to the lower bound of the previous estimate. I think.

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,088
    Cyan said:

    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
    For some kinds of health issue, the NHS has practically broken down in some areas of Scotland.

    Which ones? And are there are reasons for the rise in mortality? ....... and I don’t mean lack of doctors or whatever. I mean health issues.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,469

    Is canning the flat-rate VAT scheme beginning to smell like one of Osborne's pasty tax wheezes?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/do-punish-productive-creative-people-economy/

    I was on the flat rate system for a few years and it was not really that great a difference in terms of financial benefit. The big benefit for both my company and HMRC was it was very simple. In return for a lower flat rate of VAT you did not reclaim the VAT on any purchases. Since that reclaim system was the one that took up all the time it was certainly attractive to be able to forget about it. Since the scheme only applied to businesses with a turnover of less than £240K a year including VAT it really was only for the smallest operations. The biggest issue when I came off the scheme when my turnover exceeded the limit was not the small increase in VAT I had to pay but the more substantial increase in paperwork and time spent sorting out VAT each quarter.
    Likewise. I'm not on VAT anymore, but if I was I would be doing my best to stick to the flatrate to avoid hassle and paperwork. The journalist seems to be complaining her rate will go from 12.5 to 16.5%.

    She also claims:

    "In truth, the object of this “crackdown” is to drive as many people out of the flat-rate scheme as possible, because it was an ill thought-out policy which HMRC offered and now wants to withdraw by branding those who were invited to participate in it as “aggressive” tax cheats."
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,088

    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    The good people of Gorton could do the country a favour and elect a LibDem, thereby finally killing off Corbyn's leadership.

    Even better, elect a conservative
    I think LibDems are only ones with a chance in that seat.
    The Lib Dems have a very good chance of winning Gorton and they should unless Balls is the candidate.
    'Very' good. really? Blimey.
    Gorton isn't just red rosette on a donkey territory, it is red rosette on a donkey on a meathook and they'll still win territory. Labour had a total muppet of a candidate in Stoke who FFS had to apologise to his wife and daughter for being a twat. And he still got handily elected.

    Given the make-up of the constituency, about the only way Labour loses is if Corbyn is on YouTube having sloppy seconds with Dave's pig.
    Much the same area had a LD councillor for a long while.
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Am I a bit sleepy, or does this make no sense?: "The Chinese growth target for this year has been cut to around 6.5%, down from 6.5 to 7% last year, Premier Li Keqiang has announced."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-39137294

    I think the second "to" has the meaning of "between" rather than before/after. As in, they used to predict somewhere between six and a half and seven, now they predict six and a half
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,130
    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    The good people of Gorton could do the country a favour and elect a LibDem, thereby finally killing off Corbyn's leadership.

    Even better, elect a conservative
    I think LibDems are only ones with a chance in that seat.
    The Lib Dems have a very good chance of winning Gorton and they should unless Balls is the candidate.
    'Very' good. really? Blimey.
    I wouldn't be surprised if the LibDems pitched to Labour supporters: voting for us is the widgets way to get rid of Corbyn
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Freggles/Mr. Z, ah, cheers.

    Almost seems not worth saying, then. Still, at least it isn't growth of 0%.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030

    Is canning the flat-rate VAT scheme beginning to smell like one of Osborne's pasty tax wheezes?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/do-punish-productive-creative-people-economy/

    I was on the flat rate system for a few years and it was not really that great a difference in terms of financial benefit. The big benefit for both my company and HMRC was it was very simple. In return for a lower flat rate of VAT you did not reclaim the VAT on any purchases. Since that reclaim system was the one that took up all the time it was certainly attractive to be able to forget about it. Since the scheme only applied to businesses with a turnover of less than £240K a year including VAT it really was only for the smallest operations. The biggest issue when I came off the scheme when my turnover exceeded the limit was not the small increase in VAT I had to pay but the more substantial increase in paperwork and time spent sorting out VAT each quarter.
    Likewise. I'm not on VAT anymore, but if I was I would be doing my best to stick to the flatrate to avoid hassle and paperwork. The journalist seems to be complaining her rate will go from 12.5 to 16.5%.

    She also claims:

    "In truth, the object of this “crackdown” is to drive as many people out of the flat-rate scheme as possible, because it was an ill thought-out policy which HMRC offered and now wants to withdraw by branding those who were invited to participate in it as “aggressive” tax cheats."
    Mine wasn't as good as that. I was on 15% Flat Rate - it varies depending on the sector you are classified in. But what is forgotten is that is 15% of the gross compared to the normal rate of 20% of the net. So it is not actually 15% but in my case more like 18%. As I say the main reason for doing it was it was so much easier to manage.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    Scotland does not borrow money or have any debt, it is not allowed to, it is all done by the UK, LOL.

    Chapter 2 - Borrowing Powers

    18. The Scotland Act 2012 allows Scottish Ministers to undertake borrowing to fund capital expenditure


    LOL
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    The good people of Gorton could do the country a favour and elect a LibDem, thereby finally killing off Corbyn's leadership.

    Even better, elect a conservative
    I think LibDems are only ones with a chance in that seat.
    The Lib Dems have a very good chance of winning Gorton and they should unless Balls is the candidate.
    'Very' good. really? Blimey.
    I wouldn't be surprised if the LibDems pitched to Labour supporters: voting for us is the widgets way to get rid of Corbyn
    But it's supposed to be key corbynite territory.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432
    Scott_P said:

    Booooooooooh

    @christopherhope: Ed Balls will NOT stand in Manchester Gordon. "I am not standing in a by-election." But he does not say "never". @pestononsunday

    Disappointing. His party needs him. His country needs him. Its time.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,060
    justin124 said:

    Surely the existing UK state ceases to exist if Scotland departs.

    No, it doesn't. I can't believe we're doing this again, three years after the referendum[1]. The UK remained in existence in the 1920's when Ireland left.

    [1] Although as we're going to be banging on about Brexit for the next five years, it doesn't surprise me.

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139
    Cyan said:

    So would Scotland get 1/10th of a Security Council veto, or would neither state get one?

    Whichever state is considered the continuation of the pre-existing state retains the treaty rights and obligations of the pre-existing state. Given the imbalance in the size of the two states and the fact it would be Scotland choosing to leave the Union, the rUK would almost certainly retain the rights and responsibilities.
    The SNP has said it will leave big-boy stuff like that to the rUK. It's not an issue.

    When the USSR ceased to exist at the end of 1991, the other veto powers declared they accepted that all of the USSR's international rights and responsibilities would now fall to Russia.

    Trust me - a few Jocks who weren't bright or ambitious enough to get jobs down South aren't going to cause anyone much of a problem in this department.
    LOL, some ignoranant turnip who can hardly tie his shoelaces no doubt. Just because you are allowed to put the teabags in the cups on the building site down South does not make you a genius thicko. You will be welcome to keep your willy waving rights and your debts.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    Express (usual health warnings) reporting limited appetite in Scotland for SINDYREF2:

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/775165/Nicola-Sturgeon-SNP-Scotland-referendum-independence-UK-indyref2-EU

    Polling company looks legit but Id wait to read the actual questions put....
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited March 2017

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    That's not good news, whoever is in power.

    I don't know if it's the accumulation of bad news for the SNP, or something else not as yet revealed, but the Zoomer level on my timeline this morning reached "Unhinged"

    https://twitter.com/frasergrant/status/838295874291838976
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Anyway, I must be off. Let's hope Fillon sods off.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,175

    Mr. Freggles/Mr. Z, ah, cheers.

    Almost seems not worth saying, then. Still, at least it isn't growth of 0%.

    That represents growth of roughly 25% of the whole of the UK economy. Still staggering.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,130
    Cyan said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interestingly, Ladbrokes has shorter odds for Juppe and longer for Fillon than Betfair. That's mostly been the other way around. If Juppe does replace Fillon, I wonder if Le Pen becomes a third place favourite for the presidency.

    It sounds as though the bettors who are buying Juppé are skewed towards betting at Ladbrokes even at worse prices.

    Since Fillon announced on 1 March that he wouldn't withdraw, there have been no signs that he will change his mind. He is holding a rally in central Paris today. I'm sure the British media will conclude that he is an insane conspiracy theorist in a tin-foil hat, but it's patently obvious that someone really is out to get him.

    Juppé is very unlikely to replace Fillon: Fillon won't withdraw, and even if he did the nomination logistics would be a big problem - increasingly so as 17 March approaches. The longer Fillon stays in, the less likely he'll pull out.

    I am expecting shocks in this election, but 71-year-old convicted crook Alain Juppé sweeping all before him as he rides into the Elysée on a crest of popular acclaim is not likely to be one of them.

    The Odoxa poll is an outlier. Perhaps they contacted 90% of their pollees within five minutes of Fillon's announcement and after someone on TV talked about Juppé?

    The rolling Ifop-Fiducial poll, data collected 28 Feb - 3 Mar, with no Juppé option, gives Le Pen her best first round score since mid-Nov for that company, and her equal hypothetical bests since mid-Feb against both Fillon and Macron in the second round.

    I think Macron is a five-minute wonder: no crisis, let's go Nordic, and EU all the way - those aren't vote-winners.

    But will Fillon perform as well as polls currently indicate? And where will his votes go if he doesn't?

    The ruling Ifop is here: http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/HNS/HNSAdmin/start.appli?appid=60930&logonUser=USERWEB&logonPswcd=ZnJhbmNvaXNF

    Macron has maintained a 20+ point lead over MLP for months.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    Cyan said:

    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
    For some kinds of health issue, the NHS has practically broken down in some areas of Scotland.
    Which ones? And are there are reasons for the rise in mortality? ....... and I don’t mean lack of doctors or whatever. I mean health issues.
    NHS dentistry in most of the Western Isles. A third of the population are being refused registration. Theoretically they could hunt for an NHS dentist on the mainland, but typically that would mean going out at 6am and getting back at 9pm, with around nine hours of travel by land and sea in between, for each appointment. Even those who are registered are sometimes kept waiting indefinitely for appointments - up to 18 months in some cases. Registration refusees are advised only to show up at the emergency service if painkillers aren't working and their sleep is being affected. Having constant toothache isn't sufficient. Then it's a quick extraction or three, and any other problems in their gobs aren't even looked at.

    I don't know about the mortality, although there must be reasons for it. A massive spike to double the rate in England and Wales surely can't be down to a slightly greater preference north of the border, on average, for fatty foods.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,971

    Is canning the flat-rate VAT scheme beginning to smell like one of Osborne's pasty tax wheezes?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/do-punish-productive-creative-people-economy/

    I was on the flat rate system for a few years and it was not really that great a difference in terms of financial benefit. The big benefit for both my company and HMRC was it was very simple. In return for a lower flat rate of VAT you did not reclaim the VAT on any purchases. Since that reclaim system was the one that took up all the time it was certainly attractive to be able to forget about it. Since the scheme only applied to businesses with a turnover of less than £240K a year including VAT it really was only for the smallest operations. The biggest issue when I came off the scheme when my turnover exceeded the limit was not the small increase in VAT I had to pay but the more substantial increase in paperwork and time spent sorting out VAT each quarter.
    The government need to make life as simple as possible for small business freelancers. Spending a couple of days a quarter doing the bloody VAT return isn't being productive, neither is spending a day with the (expensive) accountant doing the bloody tax return every year.

    I think we need need more MPs who have been private sector contractors and run a small business.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,469
    Sandpit said:

    Is canning the flat-rate VAT scheme beginning to smell like one of Osborne's pasty tax wheezes?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/do-punish-productive-creative-people-economy/

    I was on the flat rate system for a few years and it was not really that great a difference in terms of financial benefit. The big benefit for both my company and HMRC was it was very simple. In return for a lower flat rate of VAT you did not reclaim the VAT on any purchases. Since that reclaim system was the one that took up all the time it was certainly attractive to be able to forget about it. Since the scheme only applied to businesses with a turnover of less than £240K a year including VAT it really was only for the smallest operations. The biggest issue when I came off the scheme when my turnover exceeded the limit was not the small increase in VAT I had to pay but the more substantial increase in paperwork and time spent sorting out VAT each quarter.
    The government need to make life as simple as possible for small business freelancers. Spending a couple of days a quarter doing the bloody VAT return isn't being productive, neither is spending a day with the (expensive) accountant doing the bloody tax return every year.

    I think we need need more MPs who have been private sector contractors and run a small business.
    It will 4 times a year under the Digital Tax wheeze (from 2018).
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139

    Cyan said:

    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
    For some kinds of health issue, the NHS has practically broken down in some areas of Scotland.

    Which ones? And are there are reasons for the rise in mortality? ....... and I don’t mean lack of doctors or whatever. I mean health issues.
    OKC, it is a troll, an extremely stupid one at that, you are wasting precious time asking it anything.
    Just Carlotta saying "Scotland Bad" without any brains.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,971

    Cyan said:

    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
    For some kinds of health issue, the NHS has practically broken down in some areas of Scotland.

    Which ones? And are there are reasons for the rise in mortality? ....... and I don’t mean lack of doctors or whatever. I mean health issues.
    Deep fried Mars bars and pizzas. All the turnips get thrown at the English.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,469
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    Booooooooooh

    @christopherhope: Ed Balls will NOT stand in Manchester Gordon. "I am not standing in a by-election." But he does not say "never". @pestononsunday

    Disappointing. His party needs him. His country needs him. Its time.
    Shame. Maybe he really has had enough of it all and prefers his new life.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139

    Grim news:

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War.

    Yes it's all very grim, but were they for Yes or for No? This is a betting site. ;)
    Since the spike was mainly in the over 75s from the flu they were probably No voting Tory Leavers...

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/news/spikeinnumberofdeathsin2015drivenbyincreasedmortalityinover75s
    Going by Tory Conference attendance last week it must be a Tory version of BSE that is the issue right enough.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    “I didn’t lie about weapons of mass destruction, I didn’t send anyone into an illegal war, I didn’t say anything racist, I’ve never been caught in a paedophile gang.” - Dr P Nuttall of Stoke on Trent.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    The good people of Gorton could do the country a favour and elect a LibDem, thereby finally killing off Corbyn's leadership.

    Even better, elect a conservative
    Very nearly did in 1955 - 1959 - and the 1967 by election. Admittedly the boundaries were different.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,971

    Sandpit said:

    Is canning the flat-rate VAT scheme beginning to smell like one of Osborne's pasty tax wheezes?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/do-punish-productive-creative-people-economy/

    I was on the flat rate system for a few years and it was not really that great a difference in terms of financial benefit. The big benefit for both my company and HMRC was it was very simple. In return for a lower flat rate of VAT you did not reclaim the VAT on any purchases. Since that reclaim system was the one that took up all the time it was certainly attractive to be able to forget about it. Since the scheme only applied to businesses with a turnover of less than £240K a year including VAT it really was only for the smallest operations. The biggest issue when I came off the scheme when my turnover exceeded the limit was not the small increase in VAT I had to pay but the more substantial increase in paperwork and time spent sorting out VAT each quarter.
    The government need to make life as simple as possible for small business freelancers. Spending a couple of days a quarter doing the bloody VAT return isn't being productive, neither is spending a day with the (expensive) accountant doing the bloody tax return every year.

    I think we need need more MPs who have been private sector contractors and run a small business.
    It will 4 times a year under the Digital Tax wheeze (from 2018).
    Hmm, maybe I stay out here in the land of no direct taxes for a few years longer then. :)
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    The good people of Gorton could do the country a favour and elect a LibDem, thereby finally killing off Corbyn's leadership.

    Even better, elect a conservative
    I think LibDems are only ones with a chance in that seat.
    The Lib Dems have a very good chance of winning Gorton and they should unless Balls is the candidate.
    'Very' good. really? Blimey.
    I wouldn't be surprised if the LibDems pitched to Labour supporters: voting for us is the widgets way to get rid of Corbyn
    But it's supposed to be key corbynite territory.
    Why do you think that ? It has a large ethnic population who could quite easily vote Lib Dem. The student population also could.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,477
    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    The good people of Gorton could do the country a favour and elect a LibDem, thereby finally killing off Corbyn's leadership.

    Even better, elect a conservative
    I think LibDems are only ones with a chance in that seat.
    The Lib Dems have a very good chance of winning Gorton and they should unless Balls is the candidate.
    'Very' good. really? Blimey.
    Yes. A very good chance. Students will hold their nose because Brexit is a big threat to the younger generation than fees. Fees is now seven years old. What the Lib Dems did was treacherous but we must not forget it was a Conservative policy.
    Actually I think you'll find the disastrous Browne review was set up by Labour.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    “I didn’t lie about weapons of mass destruction, I didn’t send anyone into an illegal war, I didn’t say anything racist, I’ve never been caught in a paedophile gang.” - Dr P Nuttall of Stoke on Trent.

    All I said was I was at a football match when I was not.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited March 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Is canning the flat-rate VAT scheme beginning to smell like one of Osborne's pasty tax wheezes?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/do-punish-productive-creative-people-economy/

    I was on the flat rate system for a few years and it was not really that great a difference in terms of financial benefit. The big benefit for both my company and HMRC was it was very simple. In return for a lower flat rate of VAT you did not reclaim the VAT on any purchases. Since that reclaim system was the one that took up all the time it was certainly attractive to be able to forget about it. Since the scheme only applied to businesses with a turnover of less than £240K a year including VAT it really was only for the smallest operations. The biggest issue when I came off the scheme when my turnover exceeded the limit was not the small increase in VAT I had to pay but the more substantial increase in paperwork and time spent sorting out VAT each quarter.
    The government need to make life as simple as possible for small business freelancers. Spending a couple of days a quarter doing the bloody VAT return isn't being productive, neither is spending a day with the (expensive) accountant doing the bloody tax return every year.

    I think we need need more MPs who have been private sector contractors and run a small business.
    Selling digital goods is already brilliantly simple thanks to the bungling EU....the seller not only has a zero level VAT threshold regardless of country of location or selling, they have to police who they are selling to, add the correct amount of VAT at check-out from the 27 different rates, and then of course account for all of this and make payment.
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651


    It is interesting that the current government policy on the minimum wage is methodically eliminating low end jobs.

    It's not so long ago that domestic service was the biggest employer in the UK.

    If Lady Courts-Posho says today: "it would be a travesty for the minimum wage to be raised to £12/hour or for there to be stronger restrictions on people coming to this country to work. I have a lovely Filipina live-in housemaid and as it is, I've had to jump through quite extraordinary amounts of red tape to bring her here. Yet she is quite happy in England, bringing in money for her family, and she would be perfectly content to work for £5/hour. If you raise the minimum wage to £12/hour I should have to let her go, and we would all be worse off. In fact it would be better for the British balance of trade if I were allowed to pay her rather less than the current minimum wage"... then in some ways she has a point. Willing buyer, willing seller, and all that - if the migrant is happy and the employer is happy, then there are economic gains that would be cut out if this transaction were to be ended.

    But if Lady Courts-Posho's delightful housemaid is only happy to work at this wage because of access to taxpayer-funded services and in-work benefits (she might be rather less keen if she had to purchase her own comprehensive health insurance, for example) then Lady Courts-Posho is really asking for quite a hefty subsidy as a low-wage employer.

    If the position of the low-wage live-in gets replaced by a lower number of higher-pay live-in positions (flexible and possibly quite highly trained), plus some more specialist providers contracting for certain services (a surprising number of lower-middle class families now employ a cleaner to pop round for an hour; a few years ago there was a fuss being made about a trend for deliveries of home-cooking from small-scale entrepreneurs - is that still taking off?) then I won't be weeping. Two interesting articles:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/domestic-service-ndash-whats-changed-in-100-years-2109432.html

    http://www.economist.com/node/21541717

    On the flip side, I do wonder about things like carers and healthcare assistants. These are people who really ought to be earning a decent wage, and presently aren't, which explains why there is so much of a recruitment problem. And it's not easily automated. But there is also a care crisis around affordability, and the government's drive to push up wages is going to make things more difficult on that front. That's a very tricky circle to square.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,328
    Cyan said:

    Cyan said:

    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
    For some kinds of health issue, the NHS has practically broken down in some areas of Scotland.
    Which ones? And are there are reasons for the rise in mortality? ....... and I don’t mean lack of doctors or whatever. I mean health issues.
    NHS dentistry in most of the Western Isles. A third of the population are being refused registration. Theoretically they could hunt for an NHS dentist on the mainland, but typically that would mean going out at 6am and getting back at 9pm, with around nine hours of travel by land and sea in between, for each appointment. Even those who are registered are sometimes kept waiting indefinitely for appointments - up to 18 months in some cases. Registration refusees are advised only to show up at the emergency service if painkillers aren't working and their sleep is being affected. Having constant toothache isn't sufficient. Then it's a quick extraction or three, and any other problems in their gobs aren't even looked at.

    I don't know about the mortality, although there must be reasons for it. A massive spike to double the rate in England and Wales surely can't be down to a slightly greater preference north of the border, on average, for fatty foods.
    Lol, 'the NHS has practically broken down some areas of Scotland' = registration problems with NHS dentistry in the Western Isles.

    Have you posted here under another tag? Your style is reminiscent of a bloke who was punting the idea that Scotland would vote more strongly for Brexit than the rUK. He was clearly an idiot.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scotland does not borrow money or have any debt, it is not allowed to, it is all done by the UK, LOL.

    Chapter 2 - Borrowing Powers

    18. The Scotland Act 2012 allows Scottish Ministers to undertake borrowing to fund capital expenditure


    LOL
    Only a Tory , as part of their pocket money they have a very small allowance to be able to build infrastructure, less than is expended on window cleaning at Westminster. It is not the 2 Trillion that UK have borrowed and does not constitute having "Borowing Powers" unless you are a cowed lickspittle Scottish Tory happy with a few crumbs from the table and unable to make your own decisions, an institutionalised cap doffing dullard with no intellect or ability to make personal decisions.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,900
    malcolmg said:

    Cyan said:

    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
    For some kinds of health issue, the NHS has practically broken down in some areas of Scotland.

    Which ones? And are there are reasons for the rise in mortality? ....... and I don’t mean lack of doctors or whatever. I mean health issues.
    OKC, it is a troll, an extremely stupid one at that, you are wasting precious time asking it anything.
    Just Carlotta saying "Scotland Bad" without any brains.
    It is remarkable that so many of those who wish to preserve the union appear to believe that unceasing insults flung in Scotland's direction are a persuasive tactic.
    I used to think you unnecessarily and gratuitously rude, but given the constant flack you take, I have revised that opinion.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,971

    Is canning the flat-rate VAT scheme beginning to smell like one of Osborne's pasty tax wheezes?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/do-punish-productive-creative-people-economy/

    I was on the flat rate system for a few years and it was not really that great a difference in terms of financial benefit. The big benefit for both my company and HMRC was it was very simple. In return for a lower flat rate of VAT you did not reclaim the VAT on any purchases. Since that reclaim system was the one that took up all the time it was certainly attractive to be able to forget about it. Since the scheme only applied to businesses with a turnover of less than £240K a year including VAT it really was only for the smallest operations. The biggest issue when I came off the scheme when my turnover exceeded the limit was not the small increase in VAT I had to pay but the more substantial increase in paperwork and time spent sorting out VAT each quarter.
    Likewise. I'm not on VAT anymore, but if I was I would be doing my best to stick to the flatrate to avoid hassle and paperwork. The journalist seems to be complaining her rate will go from 12.5 to 16.5%.

    She also claims:

    "In truth, the object of this “crackdown” is to drive as many people out of the flat-rate scheme as possible, because it was an ill thought-out policy which HMRC offered and now wants to withdraw by branding those who were invited to participate in it as “aggressive” tax cheats."
    I'd imagine freelance journalists are quite good at making sure their famous long lunches in the nicer hotels of London end up on their business expenses - thus claiming back the 20% VAT and the 40% income tax on the expense.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139
    Cyan said:

    Cyan said:

    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
    For some kinds of health issue, the NHS has practically broken down in some areas of Scotland.
    Which ones? And are there are reasons for the rise in mortality? ....... and I don’t mean lack of doctors or whatever. I mean health issues.
    NHS dentistry in most of the Western Isles. A third of the population are being refused registration. Theoretically they could hunt for an NHS dentist on the mainland, but typically that would mean going out at 6am and getting back at 9pm, with around nine hours of travel by land and sea in between, for each appointment. Even those who are registered are sometimes kept waiting indefinitely for appointments - up to 18 months in some cases. Registration refusees are advised only to show up at the emergency service if painkillers aren't working and their sleep is being affected. Having constant toothache isn't sufficient. Then it's a quick extraction or three, and any other problems in their gobs aren't even looked at.

    I don't know about the mortality, although there must be reasons for it. A massive spike to double the rate in England and Wales surely can't be down to a slightly greater preference north of the border, on average, for fatty foods.
    Utter bollox, I see local dentists advertising for NHS patients, do you live on Rockall you cretinous halfwit.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139
    Scott_P said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    That's not good news, whoever is in power.

    I don't know if it's the accumulation of bad news for the SNP, or something else not as yet revealed, but the Zoomer level on my timeline this morning reached "Unhinged"

    https://twitter.com/frasergrant/status/838295874291838976
    Quotes the zoomer of zoomers
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Mr. Mortimer, thank Mr. Glenn, I asked the same question earlier and that's the answer he provided.

    Just got your hound recently? Be careful leaving chicken about. The only time the late Kai ever grabbed food was when he very quietly and carefully snaffled a piece of chicken from a plate on the table.

    Good tip - thanks. Little Freddie is currently very little indeed - but it is surprising how high he can get relatively quickly! He is sometimes more of a Cockatoo than a Cockapoo - gets on my shoulder when sat down.

    His second set of jabs can't come soon enough - we're both getting a little stir crazy being confined to house and garden!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,477
    justin124 said:

    Surely the existing UK state ceases to exist if Scotland departs. We would be left with Scotland and rUK.Scotland would have as much liability for the debts of the former UK state as the rUK - on a pro rata basis. Otherwise a decision by England & Wales to leave the UK could result in all the former UK's debts being lumbered on Scotland!

    No. At the time the U.K. was created in 1801, legally there was no 'Kingdom of Scotland'. That had been united with England in 1707 to form the Kingdom of Great Britain. This was further united with the Kingdom of Ireland in 1801 (although the Kingdom of Ireland was reduced to the six counties after 1949).

    Therefore, an independent state of Scotland would be a new state. Not successor to a divided state. It would have no claims on the UK assets, but it could also walk away from the UK's debts if it so wished. That would not affect any international positions either but it would also mean Scotland would have to apply to join NATO, the EU and UN as a new country.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139

    Express (usual health warnings) reporting limited appetite in Scotland for SINDYREF2:

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/775165/Nicola-Sturgeon-SNP-Scotland-referendum-independence-UK-indyref2-EU

    Polling company looks legit but Id wait to read the actual questions put....

    So far no detail on the questions other than it was "before 2019"
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Interesting new viewing stats for US cable

    http://www.thewrap.com/fox-business-network-surpassed-cnbc/
  • Options
    llefllef Posts: 298
    Scott_P said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    That's not good news, whoever is in power.

    I don't know if it's the accumulation of bad news for the SNP, or something else not as yet revealed, but the Zoomer level on my timeline this morning reached "Unhinged"

    https://twitter.com/frasergrant/status/838295874291838976
    I don't have access to the Times article, but "massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War" seems to be wrong.

    According to ONS Scotland, 57,579 died in 2015, but more died in every year between 1996-2000 inclusive.
    E.g. in 1999 60,281 died.

    https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/monthly-data-on-deaths-registered-in-scotland

    Year of registration Annual total

    1996 60,654
    1997 59,494
    1998 59,164
    1999 60,281
    2000 57,799
    2001 57,382


  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    viewcode said:

    justin124 said:

    Surely the existing UK state ceases to exist if Scotland departs.

    No, it doesn't. I can't believe we're doing this again, three years after the referendum[1]. The UK remained in existence in the 1920's when Ireland left.

    [1] Although as we're going to be banging on about Brexit for the next five years, it doesn't surprise me.

    So what would the UK consist of if England became independent?
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The Lib Dem vote which crashed in Gorton went to Labour and the Greens. They could easily go back.

    These are not normal times. Brexit and Corbyn.

    Don't forget Corbyn voted with the Tories. He is tainted.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139
    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War.

    Yes it's all very grim, but were they for Yes or for No? This is a betting site. ;)
    The oldies wanted the UK.
    Good news for the Tories on here, even if they are mainly Tories pegging it, they are always whinging about parasite pensioners.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    malcolmg said:

    Cyan said:

    Cyan said:

    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
    For some kinds of health issue, the NHS has practically broken down in some areas of Scotland.
    Which ones? And are there are reasons for the rise in mortality? ....... and I don’t mean lack of doctors or whatever. I mean health issues.
    NHS dentistry in most of the Western Isles. A third of the population are being refused registration. Theoretically they could hunt for an NHS dentist on the mainland, but typically that would mean going out at 6am and getting back at 9pm, with around nine hours of travel by land and sea in between, for each appointment. Even those who are registered are sometimes kept waiting indefinitely for appointments - up to 18 months in some cases. Registration refusees are advised only to show up at the emergency service if painkillers aren't working and their sleep is being affected. Having constant toothache isn't sufficient. Then it's a quick extraction or three, and any other problems in their gobs aren't even looked at.

    I don't know about the mortality, although there must be reasons for it. A massive spike to double the rate in England and Wales surely can't be down to a slightly greater preference north of the border, on average, for fatty foods.
    Utter bollox, I see local dentists advertising for NHS patients, do you live on Rockall you cretinous halfwit.
    How helpful to a patient in the Western Isles is a Dentist in Ayrshire? Who is the cretinous half wit?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139
    viewcode said:

    justin124 said:

    Surely the existing UK state ceases to exist if Scotland departs.

    No, it doesn't. I can't believe we're doing this again, three years after the referendum[1]. The UK remained in existence in the 1920's when Ireland left.

    [1] Although as we're going to be banging on about Brexit for the next five years, it doesn't surprise me.

    Bit difficult to have a United Kingdom if half of it leaves.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,971
    edited March 2017

    Sandpit said:

    Is canning the flat-rate VAT scheme beginning to smell like one of Osborne's pasty tax wheezes?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/do-punish-productive-creative-people-economy/

    I was on the flat rate system for a few years and it was not really that great a difference in terms of financial benefit. The big benefit for both my company and HMRC was it was very simple. In return for a lower flat rate of VAT you did not reclaim the VAT on any purchases. Since that reclaim system was the one that took up all the time it was certainly attractive to be able to forget about it. Since the scheme only applied to businesses with a turnover of less than £240K a year including VAT it really was only for the smallest operations. The biggest issue when I came off the scheme when my turnover exceeded the limit was not the small increase in VAT I had to pay but the more substantial increase in paperwork and time spent sorting out VAT each quarter.
    The government need to make life as simple as possible for small business freelancers. Spending a couple of days a quarter doing the bloody VAT return isn't being productive, neither is spending a day with the (expensive) accountant doing the bloody tax return every year.

    I think we need need more MPs who have been private sector contractors and run a small business.
    Selling digital goods is already brilliantly simple thanks to the bungling EU....the seller not only has a zero level VAT threshold regardless of country of location or selling, they have to police who they are selling to, add the correct amount of VAT at check-out from the 27 different rates, and then of course account for all of this and make payment.
    Ah yes, the VATMess - I thought they made some changes to that at the last minute which minimised the impact to the smallest businesses? @Morris_Dancer I remember got caught up in it selling a few hundred ebooks for a few pounds/euro a year.

    Friend of mine does the back end for larger E-Commerce websites, he said it was a nightmare to sort out at the time, but once the work was done he also had to make sure he stayed on top of vat rate changes in all the product categories in 28 countries. Big damn mess, even before the customer realised if he changed his country on the registration form he could reduce the price of his order!
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This account is grimly funny about gun victims

    Chicago Murders
    Two killed and one wounded in LA County in separate attacks, as NY/LA narrows the gap! Chicago now leads 12-8 early in the second half.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    malcolmg said:

    Cyan said:

    Cyan said:

    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
    For some kinds of health issue, the NHS has practically broken down in some areas of Scotland.
    Which ones? And are there are reasons for the rise in mortality? ....... and I don’t mean lack of doctors or whatever. I mean health issues.
    NHS dentistry in most of the Western Isles. A third of the population are being refused registration. Theoretically they could hunt for an NHS dentist on the mainland, but typically that would mean going out at 6am and getting back at 9pm, with around nine hours of travel by land and sea in between, for each appointment. Even those who are registered are sometimes kept waiting indefinitely for appointments - up to 18 months in some cases. Registration refusees are advised only to show up at the emergency service if painkillers aren't working and their sleep is being affected. Having constant toothache isn't sufficient. Then it's a quick extraction or three, and any other problems in their gobs aren't even looked at.

    I don't know about the mortality, although there must be reasons for it. A massive spike to double the rate in England and Wales surely can't be down to a slightly greater preference north of the border, on average, for fatty foods.
    Utter bollox, I see local dentists advertising for NHS patients, do you live on Rockall you cretinous halfwit.
    How helpful to a patient in the Western Isles is a Dentist in Ayrshire? Who is the cretinous half wit?
    In any case, it will not help any Scot living in the Channel Islands.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    surbiton said:

    The Lib Dem vote which crashed in Gorton went to Labour and the Greens. They could easily go back.

    These are not normal times. Brexit and Corbyn.

    Don't forget Corbyn voted with the Tories. He is tainted.

    Labour will still be able to label them as the 'Tories little helpers' with some effect in such an area.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyan said:

    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
    For some kinds of health issue, the NHS has practically broken down in some areas of Scotland.

    Which ones? And are there are reasons for the rise in mortality? ....... and I don’t mean lack of doctors or whatever. I mean health issues.
    OKC, it is a troll, an extremely stupid one at that, you are wasting precious time asking it anything.
    Just Carlotta saying "Scotland Bad" without any brains.
    It is remarkable that so many of those who wish to preserve the union appear to believe that unceasing insults flung in Scotland's direction are a persuasive tactic.
    I used to think you unnecessarily and gratuitously rude, but given the constant flack you take, I have revised that opinion.
    Thank you Nigel, I only give back what I get , I am perfectly affable when conversing with people who are interested in discussing a topic in an intelligent and sensible manner.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,927
    If the EU forced us to pay such a large amount of money clearly we'd have to make savings elsewhere... Starting with pulling out of NATO.

    Would Donald stay in NATO is we pulled out? Doubt it!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited March 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is canning the flat-rate VAT scheme beginning to smell like one of Osborne's pasty tax wheezes?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/do-punish-productive-creative-people-economy/

    I was on the flat rate system for a few years and it was not really that great a difference in terms of financial benefit. The big benefit for both my company and HMRC was it was very simple. In return for a lower flat rate of VAT you did not reclaim the VAT on any purchases. Since that reclaim system was the one that took up all the time it was certainly attractive to be able to forget about it. Since the scheme only applied to businesses with a turnover of less than £240K a year including VAT it really was only for the smallest operations. The biggest issue when I came off the scheme when my turnover exceeded the limit was not the small increase in VAT I had to pay but the more substantial increase in paperwork and time spent sorting out VAT each quarter.
    The government need to make life as simple as possible for small business freelancers. Spending a couple of days a quarter doing the bloody VAT return isn't being productive, neither is spending a day with the (expensive) accountant doing the bloody tax return every year.

    I think we need need more MPs who have been private sector contractors and run a small business.
    Selling digital goods is already brilliantly simple thanks to the bungling EU....the seller not only has a zero level VAT threshold regardless of country of location or selling, they have to police who they are selling to, add the correct amount of VAT at check-out from the 27 different rates, and then of course account for all of this and make payment.
    Ah yes, the VATMess - I thought they made some changes to that at the last minute which minimised the impact to the smallest businesses? @Morris_Dancer I remember got caught up in it selling a few hundred ebooks for a few pounds/euro a year.

    Friend of mine does the back end for larger E-Commerce websites, he said it was a nightmare to sort out at the time, but once the work was done he also had to make sure he stayed on top of vat rate changes in all the product categories in 28 countries. Big damn mess.
    No they didn't make any tangible changes beyond being able to pay to one country and the VAT then been spread by them...the EU doesn't do flexibility or negotiation....

    There was in the end some reasonably good software solution that you could hook into e-commerce sites, but the zero threshold was utterly retarded. The whole point of the legislation was to catch the likes of Amazon from their VAT wheeze, instead managed to hit people selling in the order of 10,000s euro in the net.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Surely the existing UK state ceases to exist if Scotland departs. We would be left with Scotland and rUK.Scotland would have as much liability for the debts of the former UK state as the rUK - on a pro rata basis. Otherwise a decision by England & Wales to leave the UK could result in all the former UK's debts being lumbered on Scotland!

    No. At the time the U.K. was created in 1801, legally there was no 'Kingdom of Scotland'. That had been united with England in 1707 to form the Kingdom of Great Britain. This was further united with the Kingdom of Ireland in 1801 (although the Kingdom of Ireland was reduced to the six counties after 1949).

    Therefore, an independent state of Scotland would be a new state. Not successor to a divided state. It would have no claims on the UK assets, but it could also walk away from the UK's debts if it so wished. That would not affect any international positions either but it would also mean Scotland would have to apply to join NATO, the EU and UN as a new country.
    On that basis, an independent England state could walk away from the UK's debts too!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432
    I have been VAT registered as an individual for the last 17 years. I have never been tempted by the flat rate tax. The truth is that the records needed for VAT returns are also needed for tax and I would get into a hell of a mess if I only tried to sort it out once a year. As it is I copy my VAT books and send them onto the accountant who then produces a return.

    My wife does my VAT returns for me. It takes her about 5 hours a quarter (a significant part of the work is done by Faculty Services Ltd, a services company for pretty much all practicing advocates in Scotland. I accept that those without this may take longer). I of course pay her for this and get to deduct the wages from tax.

    It is not without its irritations but I sometimes think that complaints about the bureaucracy are a little over stated. It is annoying that I now have a completely pointless registration fee for data protection whose sole purpose seems to be to create some well paid employment but it is still minor.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is canning the flat-rate VAT scheme beginning to smell like one of Osborne's pasty tax wheezes?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/do-punish-productive-creative-people-economy/

    I was on the flat rate system for a few years and it was not really that great a difference in terms of financial benefit. The big benefit for both my company and HMRC was it was very simple. In return for a lower flat rate of VAT you did not reclaim the VAT on any purchases. Since that reclaim system was the one that took up all the time it was certainly attractive to be able to forget about it. Since the scheme only applied to businesses with a turnover of less than £240K a year including VAT it really was only for the smallest operations. The biggest issue when I came off the scheme when my turnover exceeded the limit was not the small increase in VAT I had to pay but the more substantial increase in paperwork and time spent sorting out VAT each quarter.
    The government need to make life as simple as possible for small business freelancers. Spending a couple of days a quarter doing the bloody VAT return isn't being productive, neither is spending a day with the (expensive) accountant doing the bloody tax return every year.

    I think we need need more MPs who have been private sector contractors and run a small business.
    Selling digital goods is already brilliantly simple thanks to the bungling EU....the seller not only has a zero level VAT threshold regardless of country of location or selling, they have to police who they are selling to, add the correct amount of VAT at check-out from the 27 different rates, and then of course account for all of this and make payment.
    Ah yes, the VATMess - I thought they made some changes to that at the last minute which minimised the impact to the smallest businesses? @Morris_Dancer I remember got caught up in it selling a few hundred ebooks for a few pounds/euro a year.

    Friend of mine does the back end for larger E-Commerce websites, he said it was a nightmare to sort out at the time, but once the work was done he also had to make sure he stayed on top of vat rate changes in all the product categories in 28 countries. Big damn mess, even before the customer realised if he changed his country on the registration form he could reduce the price of his order!
    Exactly what a cross-country seller in the US or Brazil has to do, you mean !
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,175
    GIN1138 said:

    If the EU forced us to pay such a large amount of money clearly we'd have to make savings elsewhere... Starting with pulling out of NATO.

    Would Donald stay in NATO is we pulled out? Doubt it!

    All that bridge building with the GOP, and Theresa May would blow it all by proving herself to be more of a Donald than the Donald. We'd be a pariah state in Washington.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    malcolmg said:

    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War.

    Yes it's all very grim, but were they for Yes or for No? This is a betting site. ;)
    The oldies wanted the UK.
    Good news for the Tories on here, even if they are mainly Tories pegging it, they are always whinging about parasite pensioners.
    To the Tories pensioners are symbiotes rather than parasites. We give them the triple lock*, they give us votes. Win - win.

    * Actually a labour wheeze initially, but nobody knows that.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,811
    edited March 2017

    FF43 said:

    surbiton said:

    One thing is certain. This British government or any other for that matter cannot be seen to be paying such a large divorce settlement. Not only have the people not been prepared for it, they have actually been hinted that it will be all plain sailing.

    This means no Brexit deal on departure and interminable litigation. The consequences for British exporters [ and importers ] and hence the rest of the economy is serious.

    Gradually, industry is beginning to absorb this. Confidence is slowly coming down. The fact that it went up was entirely due to the massive devaluation of the pound. We cannot go on devaluing forever.

    The Financial sector and the motor industry will take a big hit.

    There will be a deal. That implies there will be payment. As RCS has discussed it comes down to how that payment is shaped. The risk is that the UK government wastes limited time and political capital on this instead of getting a better settlement. This isn't poker or bridge where the game finishes on the final turn. The EU is still there; we're still there. We will have a relationship of some kind. It was stupid to have a referendum that rejected one relationship without considering the alternative or even knowing what relationship we want. But it won't be no deal.
    Between the liabilities argument and the asset argument, the smart money will be on a payment of roughly zero, but paying for access to certain things and the pensions.
    My best guess is that there will be an enforceable figure of less than €60 billion in the Separation Agreement but we will be able to pay it down over time in return for "access". Both sides accept we need access. The amount of access won't change the total figure but it may determine the rate of pay down. Theresa May can then claim there was no one-off payment and the access charges are less than our previous EU membership fees. The EU gets that enforceable figure, albeit it won't ever be enforced.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,900
    justin124 said:

    viewcode said:

    justin124 said:

    Surely the existing UK state ceases to exist if Scotland departs.

    No, it doesn't. I can't believe we're doing this again, three years after the referendum[1]. The UK remained in existence in the 1920's when Ireland left.

    [1] Although as we're going to be banging on about Brexit for the next five years, it doesn't surprise me.

    So what would the UK consist of if England became independent?
    The United Kingdon of Little Britain and Northern Ireland ?

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139

    malcolmg said:

    Cyan said:

    Cyan said:

    surbiton said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    No wonder, NHS Scotland is doing so much better.
    For some kinds of health issue, the NHS has practically broken down in some areas of Scotland.
    Which ones? And are there are reasons for the rise in mortality? ....... and I don’t mean lack of doctors or whatever. I mean health issues.
    NHS dentistry in most of the Western Isles. A third of the population are being refused registration. Theoretically they could hunt for an NHS dentist on the mainland, but typically that would mean going out at 6am and getting back at 9pm, with around nine hours of travel by land and sea in between, for each appointment. Even those who are registered are sometimes kept waiting indefinitely for appointments - up to 18 months in some cases. Registration refusees are advised only to show up at the emergency service if painkillers aren't working and their sleep is being affected. Having constant toothache isn't sufficient. Then it's a quick extraction or three, and any other problems in their gobs aren't even looked at.

    I don't know about the mortality, although there must be reasons for it. A massive spike to double the rate in England and Wales surely can't be down to a slightly greater preference north of the border, on average, for fatty foods.
    Utter bollox, I see local dentists advertising for NHS patients, do you live on Rockall you cretinous halfwit.
    How helpful to a patient in the Western Isles is a Dentist in Ayrshire? Who is the cretinous half wit?
    Given that the halfwit could not pick out the Western Isles on a map , I know exactly and can also confirm that you and it are two cheeks of the same arse.
    Best you would be able to find is that a dentist retired and the Health Board covers treatment until another private dentist would take over. All remote areas of the UK have issues with Dentist / GP cover when practioners retire etc.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    DavidL said:

    I have been VAT registered as an individual for the last 17 years. I have never been tempted by the flat rate tax. The truth is that the records needed for VAT returns are also needed for tax and I would get into a hell of a mess if I only tried to sort it out once a year. As it is I copy my VAT books and send them onto the accountant who then produces a return.

    My wife does my VAT returns for me. It takes her about 5 hours a quarter (a significant part of the work is done by Faculty Services Ltd, a services company for pretty much all practicing advocates in Scotland. I accept that those without this may take longer). I of course pay her for this and get to deduct the wages from tax.

    It is not without its irritations but I sometimes think that complaints about the bureaucracy are a little over stated. It is annoying that I now have a completely pointless registration fee for data protection whose sole purpose seems to be to create some well paid employment but it is still minor.

    Agreed. It is massively exaggerated. The business I run, annual turnover £25mn: the VAT return takes, frankly, seconds. It is a software printout - actually on-screen.

    Because we are importing and exporting, we have to do the Intrastat - which is also software generated.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,477
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Surely the existing UK state ceases to exist if Scotland departs. We would be left with Scotland and rUK.Scotland would have as much liability for the debts of the former UK state as the rUK - on a pro rata basis. Otherwise a decision by England & Wales to leave the UK could result in all the former UK's debts being lumbered on Scotland!

    No. At the time the U.K. was created in 1801, legally there was no 'Kingdom of Scotland'. That had been united with England in 1707 to form the Kingdom of Great Britain. This was further united with the Kingdom of Ireland in 1801 (although the Kingdom of Ireland was reduced to the six counties after 1949).

    Therefore, an independent state of Scotland would be a new state. Not successor to a divided state. It would have no claims on the UK assets, but it could also walk away from the UK's debts if it so wished. That would not affect any international positions either but it would also mean Scotland would have to apply to join NATO, the EU and UN as a new country.
    On that basis, an independent England state could walk away from the UK's debts too!
    Yes, it could. But it would also walk away from the UK's assets, foreign obligations/advantages and property as well. Which doesn't seem likely.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,927

    GIN1138 said:

    If the EU forced us to pay such a large amount of money clearly we'd have to make savings elsewhere... Starting with pulling out of NATO.

    Would Donald stay in NATO is we pulled out? Doubt it!

    All that bridge building with the GOP, and Theresa May would blow it all by proving herself to be more of a Donald than the Donald. We'd be a pariah state in Washington.
    Well that as may be but choices will have be made if we're forced to pay such an exorbitant amount. I'd rather be a "pariah state" in Washington than see the NHS run out of money...
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,900
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Surely the existing UK state ceases to exist if Scotland departs. We would be left with Scotland and rUK.Scotland would have as much liability for the debts of the former UK state as the rUK - on a pro rata basis. Otherwise a decision by England & Wales to leave the UK could result in all the former UK's debts being lumbered on Scotland!

    No. At the time the U.K. was created in 1801, legally there was no 'Kingdom of Scotland'. That had been united with England in 1707 to form the Kingdom of Great Britain. This was further united with the Kingdom of Ireland in 1801 (although the Kingdom of Ireland was reduced to the six counties after 1949).

    Therefore, an independent state of Scotland would be a new state. Not successor to a divided state. It would have no claims on the UK assets, but it could also walk away from the UK's debts if it so wished. That would not affect any international positions either but it would also mean Scotland would have to apply to join NATO, the EU and UN as a new country.
    On that basis, an independent England state could walk away from the UK's debts too!
    It could, but it's extremely hard to see how it might benefit from doing so.

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139
    edited March 2017
    llef said:

    Scott_P said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    That's not good news, whoever is in power.

    I don't know if it's the accumulation of bad news for the SNP, or something else not as yet revealed, but the Zoomer level on my timeline this morning reached "Unhinged"

    https://twitter.com/frasergrant/status/838295874291838976
    I don't have access to the Times article, but "massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War" seems to be wrong.

    According to ONS Scotland, 57,579 died in 2015, but more died in every year between 1996-2000 inclusive.
    E.g. in 1999 60,281 died.

    https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/monthly-data-on-deaths-registered-in-scotland

    Year of registration Annual total

    1996 60,654
    1997 59,494
    1998 59,164
    1999 60,281
    2000 57,799
    2001 57,382


    Usual bilge from Scott, he is a stranger to the truth , blindly follows his CCHQ instructions to the letter, accompanied by his helper Carlotta, the sites Mutt and Jeff entertainment duo. Mirrors the Tory surge in Scotland.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,145


    It is interesting that the current government policy on the minimum wage is methodically eliminating low end jobs.

    But if Lady Courts-Posho's delightful housemaid is only happy to work at this wage because of access to taxpayer-funded services and in-work benefits (she might be rather less keen if she had to purchase her own comprehensive health insurance, for example) then Lady Courts-Posho is really asking for quite a hefty subsidy as a low-wage employer.

    Indeed.

    There's a clear link between unlimited, unprepared for low skilled immigration and the 'cost of living crisis', the 'housing crisis', the 'NHS crisis', the 'transport crisis' and the 'environment crisis'.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432
    llef said:

    Scott_P said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    That's not good news, whoever is in power.

    I don't know if it's the accumulation of bad news for the SNP, or something else not as yet revealed, but the Zoomer level on my timeline this morning reached "Unhinged"

    https://twitter.com/frasergrant/status/838295874291838976
    I don't have access to the Times article, but "massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War" seems to be wrong.

    According to ONS Scotland, 57,579 died in 2015, but more died in every year between 1996-2000 inclusive.
    E.g. in 1999 60,281 died.

    https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/monthly-data-on-deaths-registered-in-scotland

    Year of registration Annual total

    1996 60,654
    1997 59,494
    1998 59,164
    1999 60,281
    2000 57,799
    2001 57,382


    So no spike at all over a sensible period of time. In fact the number of deaths has fallen even more as a percentage of the population which has risen (albeit modestly) over recent times. Looks like a non story to me.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,927
    malcolmg said:

    llef said:

    Scott_P said:

    Grim news:

    Scotland is facing an unprecedented mortality crisis, according to newly released figures which reveal that, in the past three years, life expectancy has failed to rise for the first time since records were published in 1861.

    Contributing partly to the trend was a massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War. The rate was almost twice as high as in England and Wales, which together experienced a 50-year high in their mortality rate.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-facing-crisis-on-life-expectancy-q3lz5fqhw

    That's not good news, whoever is in power.

    I don't know if it's the accumulation of bad news for the SNP, or something else not as yet revealed, but the Zoomer level on my timeline this morning reached "Unhinged"

    https://twitter.com/frasergrant/status/838295874291838976
    I don't have access to the Times article, but "massive spike in mortality in 2015 when more people died than in any other single year since the Second World War" seems to be wrong.

    According to ONS Scotland, 57,579 died in 2015, but more died in every year between 1996-2000 inclusive.
    E.g. in 1999 60,281 died.

    https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/monthly-data-on-deaths-registered-in-scotland

    Year of registration Annual total

    1996 60,654
    1997 59,494
    1998 59,164
    1999 60,281
    2000 57,799
    2001 57,382


    Usual bilge from Scott, he is a stranger to the truth , blindly follows his CCHQ instructions to the letter, accompanied by his helper Carlotta, the sites Mutt and Jeff entertainment duo. Mirrors the Tory surge in Scotland.
    Afternoon Malc! :smiley:
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,145
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    surbiton said:

    One thing is certain. This British government or any other for that matter cannot be seen to be paying such a large divorce settlement. Not only have the people not been prepared for it, they have actually been hinted that it will be all plain sailing.

    This means no Brexit deal on departure and interminable litigation. The consequences for British exporters [ and importers ] and hence the rest of the economy is serious.

    Gradually, industry is beginning to absorb this. Confidence is slowly coming down. The fact that it went up was entirely due to the massive devaluation of the pound. We cannot go on devaluing forever.

    The Financial sector and the motor industry will take a big hit.

    There will be a deal. That implies there will be payment. As RCS has discussed it comes down to how that payment is shaped. The risk is that the UK government wastes limited time and political capital on this instead of getting a better settlement. This isn't poker or bridge where the game finishes on the final turn. The EU is still there; we're still there. We will have a relationship of some kind. It was stupid to have a referendum that rejected one relationship without considering the alternative or even knowing what relationship we want. But it won't be no deal.
    Between the liabilities argument and the asset argument, the smart money will be on a payment of roughly zero, but paying for access to certain things and the pensions.
    My best guess is that there will be an enforceable figure of less than €60 billion in the Separation Agreement but we will be able to pay it down over time in return for "access". Both sides accept we need access. The amount of access won't change the total figure but it may determine the rate of pay down. Theresa May can then claim there was no one-off payment and the access charges are less than our previous EU membership fees. The EU gets that enforceable figure, albeit it won't ever be enforced.
    How much will the EU pay to access the UK market ?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,175
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If the EU forced us to pay such a large amount of money clearly we'd have to make savings elsewhere... Starting with pulling out of NATO.

    Would Donald stay in NATO is we pulled out? Doubt it!

    All that bridge building with the GOP, and Theresa May would blow it all by proving herself to be more of a Donald than the Donald. We'd be a pariah state in Washington.
    Well that as may be but choices will have be made if we're forced to pay such an exorbitant amount. I'd rather be a "pariah state" in Washington than see the NHS run out of money...
    Anything to 'save the NHS'... Is there any other western country that is so completely beholden to decisions made in the 40s?
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