How utterly depressing. That quite possibly means the end of the Paris Climate Agreement and, with it, the last real change of limiting carbon emissions. If you want your descendants to inherit the family home, best make sure it's on high ground!
Good. Climate change is economic voodoo. We will adapt. The best periods for life on earth - a provable fact in terms of species variety - have been the warmer periods.
There's a small, but not completely negligible, chance that burning all accessible fossil fuels will turn the Earth into another Venus. Our descendants may have some difficulties adapting to that.
There's a considerably greater chance that we are headed for another humanity-crushing Ice Age, judging by climatological history, so put that in you coal fired power station, and smoke it.
Just remember that every lump of coal, every barrel of oil and every tonne of chalk, limestone and marble contains carbon dioxide that was once in the earth's atmosphere and was 'fixed' by living organisms.
Indeed. It's another of those remarkably fortuitous circumstances that have kept Earth suitable for life. The gradual removal of CO2 from the atmosphere has roughly compensated for the steadily increasing output of the sun as it ages, thus keeping the Earth at relatively benign temperature for billions of years.
How utterly depressing. That quite possibly means the end of the Paris Climate Agreement and, with it, the last real change of limiting carbon emissions. If you want your descendants to inherit the family home, best make sure it's on high ground!
Good. Climate change is economic voodoo. We will adapt. The best periods for life on earth - a provable fact in terms of species variety - have been the warmer periods.
There's a small, but not completely negligible, chance that burning all accessible fossil fuels will turn the Earth into another Venus. Our descendants may have some difficulties adapting to that.
There's a considerably greater chance that we are headed for another humanity-crushing Ice Age, judging by climatological history, so put that in you coal fired power station, and smoke it.
Just remember that every lump of coal, every barrel of oil and every tonne of chalk, limestone and marble contains carbon dioxide that was once in the earth's atmosphere and was 'fixed' by living organisms.
Indeed. It's another of those remarkably fortuitous circumstances that have kept Earth suitable for life. The gradual removal of CO2 from the atmosphere has roughly compensated for the steadily increasing output of the sun as it ages, thus keeping the Earth at relatively benign temperature for billions of years.
If only the planet was covered by green leafy things that could absorb CO2 ...
Trump could well kill conservatism in many different ways.
Apparently he's just like Regan though. Even though the way he loves Russia would have Regan spinning in his grave right now....
@SeanT Obama is pretty popular in this country. Trump isn't.
Obama is personally popular, yes. But 3 out of 4 Americans think his policies took the US in the wrong direction. That's the Obama dichotomy. He is popular but his policies are not.
In that post I was referring to Obama's popularity in the UK.
I think Pew has found that Americans overall are pretty divided on Obama's legacy. Personally, I think that Trump is going to make Obama look like a great president. Just like George W. Bush made Bill Clinton look great.
Obama left with 60 ! % approval ratings, he seems to have achieved a ranking of 18th amongst presidents on the wikipedia entries and he was undoubtedly charismatic. He might well have won a third term if he was allowed, Hillary was amazing at racking up coastal votes - Obama won Iowa! that'll seem like a distant dream for the Democrats now for a good while.
Yep, I agree. Obama's approval ratings are not too far behind Clinton's and Reagan's. I think Obama would certainly have run Trump a lot more closer in the electoral college than Hillary did. Obama had the 'common touch', in a way that Hillary did not.
Obama would have secured a higher turnout among African Americans. That is what lost it for Hillary.
Yep - Trump won Rust Belt states by relatively small % margin. Hopefully four years of Trump will mobilise African Americans to come out and vote in 2020.
And he lost New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, Maine (at large) by small amounts as well.
If he does well for the WWC Americans he will be re-elected. There are insufficient AAs to stop the tide.
So maybe you should try and say "Hopefully four years of Trump will mobilise Americans to come out and vote in 202 " The fact you are relying on AAs just shows the racist way you look down on them and exemplifies the minority hugging attitude that the left hold.
Anyway, looking at the new POTUS and Brexit. Why does he want the EU to fail? Because it is a rival economic power block. If the EU fails then it makes the job for the US easier in terms of changing the rules of trade. A big economy like the US has more clout against a single French or German economy in contrast to a block of 20 odd developed countries. ...
Yes, this is a key point, and one which of course our EU friends are very well aware of. Anyone who thinks that the election of Trump means that the EU is more likely to fall apart is completely out with the fairies - the obvious effect of Trump's 'America First' protectionism on the EU27 will be to strengthen their unity. Particualrly for countries like France, where the EU has always been seen first and foremost as an explicit counterbalance to US hegemony.
Quite how Brexit plays in this shifting of the world power and economic landscape is anyone's guess.
EU28 for at least two years. It will make it harder, not easier to execute Brexit as the months roll by.
BBC Jon Sopel's great insight for us "I wonder what Hillary Clinton was thinking....." BBC purposes = "The BBC will build a global understanding of international issues and broaden UK audiences' experience of different cultures."
@kurteichenwald: As of now, America has no ambassadors in countries everywhere. Trump fired them all as of 12:01 for no comprehensible reason.
Is this unusual? All Presidents in recent years have, for example, replaced the Ambassador to the UK with their own choice/friend.
Pamela Harriman had a colourful career, but was she really a diplomat? Started off as Churchill's Daughter-in-Law and is appointed to US Embassy in Paris.
How utterly depressing. That quite possibly means the end of the Paris Climate Agreement and, with it, the last real change of limiting carbon emissions. If you want your descendants to inherit the family home, best make sure it's on high ground!
Good. Climate change is economic voodoo. We will adapt. The best periods for life on earth - a provable fact in terms of species variety - have been the warmer periods.
There's a small, but not completely negligible, chance that burning all accessible fossil fuels will turn the Earth into another Venus. Our descendants may have some difficulties adapting to that.
There's a considerably greater chance that we are headed for another humanity-crushing Ice Age, judging by climatological history, so put that in you coal fired power station, and smoke it.
Just remember that every lump of coal, every barrel of oil and every tonne of chalk, limestone and marble contains carbon dioxide that was once in the earth's atmosphere and was 'fixed' by living organisms.
Indeed. It's another of those remarkably fortuitous circumstances that have kept Earth suitable for life. The gradual removal of CO2 from the atmosphere has roughly compensated for the steadily increasing output of the sun as it ages, thus keeping the Earth at relatively benign temperature for billions of years.
If only the planet was covered by green leafy things that could absorb CO2 ...
If only. Just multiply their number by 100 or so, and we'll be OK.
Apparently he's just like Regan though. Even though the way he loves Russia would have Regan spinning in his grave right now....
That's simply wrong. Reagan hated communism but he was quite affectionate towards Russia and the Russian people. He even used to collect their jokes.
Also, Reagan shocked his advisers by very nearly agreeing massive arms reductions with Gorbachev. People who feel they've had a personal mandate sometimes do unexpected things.
Trump could well kill conservatism in many different ways.
Apparently he's just like Regan though. Even though the way he loves Russia would have Regan spinning in his grave right now....
@SeanT Obama is pretty popular in this country. Trump isn't.
Obama is personally popular, yes. But 3 out of 4 Americans think his policies took the US in the wrong direction. That's the Obama dichotomy. He is popular but his policies are not.
In that post I was referring to Obama's popularity in the UK.
I think Pew has found that Americans overall are pretty divided on Obama's legacy. Personally, I think that Trump is going to make Obama look like a great president. Just like George W. Bush made Bill Clinton look great.
Obama left with 60 ! % approval ratings, he seems to have achieved a ranking of 18th amongst presidents on the wikipedia entries and he was undoubtedly charismatic. He might well have won a third term if he was allowed, Hillary was amazing at racking up coastal votes - Obama won Iowa! that'll seem like a distant dream for the Democrats now for a good while.
Yep, I agree. Obama's approval ratings are not too far behind Clinton's and Reagan's. I think Obama would certainly have run Trump a lot more closer in the electoral college than Hillary did. Obama had the 'common touch', in a way that Hillary did not.
Obama would have secured a higher turnout among African Americans. That is what lost it for Hillary.
Yep - Trump won Rust Belt states by relatively small % margin. Hopefully four years of Trump will mobilise African Americans to come out and vote in 2020.
And he lost New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, Maine (at large) by small amounts as well.
If he does well for the WWC Americans he will be re-elected. There are insufficient AAs to stop the tide.
So maybe you should try and say "Hopefully four years of Trump will mobilise Americans to come out and vote in 202 " The fact you are relying on AAs just shows the racist way you look down on them and exemplifies the minority hugging attitude that the left hold.
I'm half black myself LOL, so I hardly look down on African-Americans. What an incredibly OTT reaction from yourself.
Fact is even with his support from WWC an increased turnout from African-Americans may have swung it for Clinton.
How utterly depressing. That quite possibly means the end of the Paris Climate Agreement and, with it, the last real change of limiting carbon emissions. If you want your descendants to inherit the family home, best make sure it's on high ground!
Good. Climate change is economic voodoo. We will adapt. The best periods for life on earth - a provable fact in terms of species variety - have been the warmer periods.
There's a small, but not completely negligible, chance that burning all accessible fossil fuels will turn the Earth into another Venus. Our descendants may have some difficulties adapting to that.
There's a considerably greater chance that we are headed for another humanity-crushing Ice Age, judging by climatological history, so put that in you coal fired power station, and smoke it.
Just remember that every lump of coal, every barrel of oil and every tonne of chalk, limestone and marble contains carbon dioxide that was once in the earth's atmosphere and was 'fixed' by living organisms.
Indeed. It's another of those remarkably fortuitous circumstances that have kept Earth suitable for life. The gradual removal of CO2 from the atmosphere has roughly compensated for the steadily increasing output of the sun as it ages, thus keeping the Earth at relatively benign temperature for billions of years.
If only the planet was covered by green leafy things that could absorb CO2 ...
How utterly depressing. That quite possibly means the end of the Paris Climate Agreement and, with it, the last real change of limiting carbon emissions. If you want your descendants to inherit the family home, best make sure it's on high ground!
Good. Climate change is economic voodoo. We will adapt. The best periods for life on earth - a provable fact in terms of species variety - have been the warmer periods.
There's a small, but not completely negligible, chance that burning all accessible fossil fuels will turn the Earth into another Venus. Our descendants may have some difficulties adapting to that.
There's a considerably greater chance that we are headed for another humanity-crushing Ice Age, judging by climatological history, so put that in you coal fired power station, and smoke it.
No, there isn't. The large swings in temperature associated with the ice ages were driven by greenhouse gas feedback. CO2 was at about 180 ppm during the depths of the ice age, rising to about 280 ppm during interglacial periods. It's now just over 400 ppm and rising rapidly. We've already far more than cancelled the next ice age.
Absolutely not true. It is well established that insolation and continental positioning are the major factor behind ice ages. And there's a long way to go before we start converging on the 7,000 ppm of the Cambrian era.
If global warming is occurring, it's a bugger for Game of Thrones - getting harder to find reliably wintry filming locations now that Winter Has Come.
The first one isn't really surprising, since I guess it was set up before hand? The second isn't either!
Surely he/they could have left it blank initially if there weren't any pics from his inauguration at the time? The second one isn't surprising, but it's still funny.
I'm trying to imagine how I would react to that speech if I was an out-of-work car worker from Detroit who had voted for him. I'm trying to get into his head. Quite difficult from Richmond Park!
I think I would feel - "Good - now let's see you do it." I think I would be focused on what's in for me. When will I be better off? And I might feel proud to be an American. Respect.
The problem for Trump is how is he going to deliver to those expectations because I suspect he isn't. I think Trump genuinely wants to be a great President. I'm not cynical about that.
But he has an ego the size of the planet. The problem for us is how is he going to react when he doesn't succeed. Obviously he'll blame others and feel he has to punish them in some way. Congress? The media? China? What will he do?
I think that's absolutely right.
You know; I'm very relaxed regarding Trump and military stuff. He's going to force the Europeans to spend more, and - frankly - America being militarily stronger is probably a good thing. The infrastructure stuff is highly necessary. A lot of the tax stuff is spot on (if probably not going to happen to quite the extent promised).
But.
The trade stuff is dangerous. If we get into a world where everyone is raising tariffs, well, we've been there and it doesn't end well.
And vaccinations too. He's put a man who believes vaccines cause autism (and who compared their use to the 'holocaust') in charge of a committee on vaccines. That's also genuinely scary.
Trump could well kill conservatism in many different ways.
Apparently he's just like Regan though. Even though the way he loves Russia would have Regan spinning in his grave right now....
@SeanT Obama is pretty popular in this country. Trump isn't.
Obama is personally popular, yes. But 3 out of 4 Americans think his policies took the US in the wrong direction. That's the Obama dichotomy. He is popular but his policies are not.
In that post I was referring to Obama's popularity in the UK.
I think Pew has found that Americans overall are pretty divided on Obama's legacy. Personally, I think that Trump is going to make Obama look like a great president. Just like George W. Bush made Bill Clinton look great.
Obama left with 60 ! % approval ratings, he seems to have achieved a ranking of 18th amongst presidents on the wikipedia entries and he was undoubtedly charismatic. He might well have won a third term if he was allowed, Hillary was amazing at racking up coastal votes - Obama won Iowa! that'll seem like a distant dream for the Democrats now for a good while.
Yep, I agree. Obama's approval ratings are not too far behind Clinton's and Reagan's. I think Obama would certainly have run Trump a lot more closer in the electoral college than Hillary did. Obama had the 'common touch', in a way that Hillary did not.
Obama would have secured a higher turnout among African Americans. That is what lost it for Hillary.
Yep - Trump won Rust Belt states by relatively small % margin. Hopefully four years of Trump will mobilise African Americans to come out and vote in 2020.
And he lost New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, Maine (at large) by small amounts as well.
If he does well for the WWC Americans he will be re-elected. There are insufficient AAs to stop the tide.
So maybe you should try and say "Hopefully four years of Trump will mobilise Americans to come out and vote in 202 " The fact you are relying on AAs just shows the racist way you look down on them and exemplifies the minority hugging attitude that the left hold.
If Donald Trump does a good job for the poor and the working classes, whether white or not, then he deserves to be re-elected.
If - on the other hand - his actions worsen their plight, then he'll likely be hounded out of office.
@MichaelLCrick: Theresa May, Tues: "The UK... will step up... for tree trade anywhere in the world." Trump today: "Protection will lead to great prosperity"
Anyway, looking at the new POTUS and Brexit. Why does he want the EU to fail? Because it is a rival economic power block. If the EU fails then it makes the job for the US easier in terms of changing the rules of trade. A big economy like the US has more clout against a single French or German economy in contrast to a block of 20 odd developed countries. ...
Yes, this ia a key point, and one which of course our EU friends are very well aware of. Anyone who thinks that the election of Trump means that the EU is more likely to fall apart is completely out with the fairies - the obvious effect of Trump's 'America First' protectionism on the EU27 will be to strengthen their unity.
Yes, but equally I suspect the Trump presidency will make the Anglosphere nations, the Five Eyes, hug each other closer, as the world divides along new fault lines. We may wince as we do so, but no doubt the Greeks, Poles and Italians will wince as they are forced to embrace even closer with the Germans.
In other words, we will be worse off and more closely tied to an America we dislike. Sounds like a dream scenario. At least we will have a free trade agreement with New Zealand.
God you are the most depressing, self pitying lefty drip tray. Oh woe is me.
Man up. Find a pair. In the end this epicene whingeing is just dull.
Like you, I am insulated from economic downturns. In fact, unlike you I am probably going to do very well out of President Trump specifically if his protectionist policies work as around 50% of our business is in the US and almost none is in the UK. So there's no self-pity going on. I just think that the consequences of Trump's policies will be profoundly anti-British - far, far more so than Obama's. But Trump has a Churchill bust and annoys Guardian readers, so he gets a thumbs-up from the thumbs-up right.
I'm trying to imagine how I would react to that speech if I was an out-of-work car worker from Detroit who had voted for him. I'm trying to get into his head. Quite difficult from Richmond Park!
I think I would feel - "Good - now let's see you do it." I think I would be focused on what's in for me. When will I be better off? And I might feel proud to be an American. Respect.
The problem for Trump is how is he going to deliver to those expectations because I suspect he isn't. I think Trump genuinely wants to be a great President. I'm not cynical about that.
But he has an ego the size of the planet. The problem for us is how is he going to react when he doesn't succeed. Obviously he'll blame others and feel he has to punish them in some way. Congress? The media? China? What will he do?
I think that's absolutely right.
You know; I'm very relaxed regarding Trump and military stuff. He's going to force the Europeans to spend more, and - frankly - America being militarily stronger is probably a good thing. The infrastructure stuff is highly necessary. A lot of the tax stuff is spot on (if probably not going to happen to quite the extent promised).
But.
The trade stuff is dangerous. If we get into a world where everyone is raising tariffs, well, we've been there and it doesn't end well.
And vaccinations too. He's put a man who believes vaccines cause autism (and who compared their use to the 'holocaust') in charge of a committee on vaccines. That's also genuinely scary.
They'll lynch him when they realise that the factories coming back doesn't mean that the jobs will come back with them.
Well, yes. The Fort Dearborn auto plant used to employ 110,000 people (skilled blue collar workers, mostly) at its peak. It's now under 4,000, and will drop to 2,500 by end 2018. Production will rise, but most jobs - except the minimum wage security guards - will go to white collar engineers who tend the machines.
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
How utterly depressing. That quite possibly means the end of the Paris Climate Agreement and, with it, the last real change of limiting carbon emissions. If you want your descendants to inherit the family home, best make sure it's on high ground!
Good. Climate change is economic voodoo. We will adapt. The best periods for life on earth - a provable fact in terms of species variety - have been the warmer periods.
There's a small, but not completely negligible, chance that burning all accessible fossil fuels will turn the Earth into another Venus. Our descendants may have some difficulties adapting to that.
There's a considerably greater chance that we are headed for another humanity-crushing Ice Age, judging by climatological history, so put that in you coal fired power station, and smoke it.
No, there isn't. The large swings in temperature associated with the ice ages were driven by greenhouse gas feedback. CO2 was at about 180 ppm during the depths of the ice age, rising to about 280 ppm during interglacial periods. It's now just over 400 ppm and rising rapidly. We've already far more than cancelled the next ice age.
Absolutely not true. It is well established that insolation and continental positioning are the major factor behind ice ages. And there's a long way to go before we start converging on the 7,000 ppm of the Cambrian era.
If global warming is occurring, it's a bugger for Game of Thrones - getting harder to find reliably wintry filming locations now that Winter Has Come.
I'm referring to the interglacial periods within the current ice age. Continents don't shift appreciably and solar output is relatively constant on that short a time scale. You need greenhouse feedback to get interglacial warming.
The sun was weak, and the continents differently arranged in the Cambrian era. It's not comparable with today.
@MichaelLCrick: Theresa May, Tues: "The UK... will step up... for tree trade anywhere in the world." Trump today: "Protection will lead to great prosperity"
Protectionism will lead to great prosperity, like all the other times it's been tried...
But....but....only the liberal left are concerned about Trump....
Obama delivered great speeches and was a lousy Leader. Trump delivers lousy speeches and .....
We have no idea how Trump’s presidency will pan out, everything written thus far is simply projection based on positive or negative bias. – It is however, likely to be a very different style of leadership from what’s gone before.
"The bible tells us how good and pleasant it is when god’s people live together in unity."
What?? The Old Testament, as Trump's religion calls it, says that the Jews are God's chosen people. The view in the New Testament is that we are all God's people. Neither of those collections of documents contains any suggestion that God's people are the people of the United States.
"We stand at the birth of a new millennium, ready to unlock the mysteries of space, to free the earth from the miseries of disease, to harvest the energies, industries and technologies of tomorrow."
This guy is gaga!
Unfortunately, I suspect that many who voted against him will be inspired by the Great Leader.
Three items that were conspicuous by their absence:
1) any reference to an international movement, to the worldwide spirit of the times that Il Duce is channelling - in short, anything that could be interpreted as support for far-right populist movements in other countries, such as in Europe
2) climate change
3) Scotland. I was dreading learning that he had invoked his Scottish heritage, and pleased that he didn't.
The Trump Administration is committed to a foreign policy focused on American interests and American national security. Peace through strength will be at the center of that foreign policy. This principle will make possible a stable, more peaceful world with less conflict and more common ground. Defeating ISIS and other radical Islamic terror groups will be our highest priority. To defeat and destroy these groups, we will pursue aggressive joint and coalition military operations when necessary. In addition, the Trump Administration will work with international partners to cut off funding for terrorist groups, to expand intelligence sharing, and to engage in cyberwarfare to disrupt and disable propaganda and recruiting. Next, we will rebuild the American military. Our Navy has shrunk from more than 500 ships in 1991 to 275 in 2016. Our Air Force is roughly one third smaller than in 1991. President Trump is committed to reversing this trend, because he knows that our military dominance must be unquestioned. Finally, in pursuing a foreign policy based on American interests, we will embrace diplomacy. The world must know that we do not go abroad in search of enemies, that we are always happy when old enemies become friends, and when old friends become allies. The world will be more peaceful and more prosperous with a stronger and more respected America.
With a lifetime of negotiating experience, the President understands how critical it is to put American workers and businesses first when it comes to trade. With tough and fair agreements, international trade can be used to grow our economy, return millions of jobs to America’s shores, and revitalize our nation’s suffering communities. This strategy starts by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and making certain that any new trade deals are in the interests of American workers. President Trump is committed to renegotiating NAFTA. If our partners refuse a renegotiation that gives American workers a fair deal, then the President will give notice of the United States’ intent to withdraw from NAFTA. In addition to rejecting and reworking failed trade deals, the United States will crack down on those nations that violate trade agreements and harm American workers in the process. The President will direct the Commerce Secretary to identify all trade violations and to use every tool at the federal government’s disposal to end these abuses. To carry out his strategy, the President is appointing the toughest and smartest to his trade team, ensuring that Americans have the best negotiators possible. For too long, trade deals have been negotiated by, and for, members of the Washington establishment. President Trump will ensure that on his watch, trade policies will be implemented by and for the people, and will put America first. By fighting for fair but tough trade deals, we can bring jobs back to America’s shores, increase wages, and support U.S. manufacturing.
@DAaronovitch: I pity the ‘Im going to pretend the Trump speech was OK because I’m not a metropolitan pussy’ pundits.
Very very few media commentators are defending THAT speech. Iain Dale was castigating on LBC "borderline Mussolini"
I'll defend it. The speech was chaotic in parts, and jingoistic. And lacked really great lines. But it merely reiterated what Trump has said on the campaign trail. He is a nationalistic American. And I don't recalll any truly offensive lines, anything racist or abusive.
And in places it was clever and passionate and well delivered, in his alarmingly off the cuff way.
We're just so used to boring liberal boilerplate and tedious PC platitudes that's anything that strays off piste *sounds* outrageous. But really isn't, on analysis.
OK night night from Bangers. New chapter to write tomorrow.
I thought the "whether you are born in Detroit or Nebraska" bit was rather moving. But I have to say I am now officially scared shitless by Trump. Not funny any more.
They'll lynch him when they realise that the factories coming back doesn't mean that the jobs will come back with them.
Well, yes. The Fort Dearborn auto plant used to employ 110,000 people (skilled blue collar workers, mostly) at its peak. It's now under 4,000, and will drop to 2,500 by end 2018. Production will rise, but most jobs - except the minimum wage security guards - will go to white collar engineers who tend the machines.
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
It's going to require more than just investing in American education - you're going to have to forcibly alter culture and I just don't see how that's possible under anything approaching a liberal democracy.
I love all the prognostications on here. We have no idea what is going to happen. It's all getting a bit SNP; any conceivable change of circumstance is a reason to cancel Brexit.
Yet here we are in the glorious 21st century, in a world that's richer than it has ever been, with the lowest child mortality, the lowest poverty rates, the fewest war deaths, the best technology and most developed science in all of human history. We live like royalty, dine on the produce of the world and our children are likely to be, if not immortal, centenarians at least. It's a wonderful time to be alive.
They'll lynch him when they realise that the factories coming back doesn't mean that the jobs will come back with them.
Well, yes. The Fort Dearborn auto plant used to employ 110,000 people (skilled blue collar workers, mostly) at its peak. It's now under 4,000, and will drop to 2,500 by end 2018. Production will rise, but most jobs - except the minimum wage security guards - will go to white collar engineers who tend the machines.
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
Obama spent billions on 'education' with no real beneficial effects.
Our job is not to make life more comfortable for the rioter, the looter, or the violent disrupter. Our job is to make life more comfortable for parents who want their kids to be able to walk the streets safely. Or the senior citizen waiting for a bus. Or the young child walking home from school.
Supporting law enforcement means supporting our citizens’ ability to protect themselves. We will uphold Americans’ Second Amendment rights at every level of our judicial system.
President Trump is committed to building a border wall to stop illegal immigration, to stop the gangs and the violence, and to stop the drugs from pouring into our communities. He is dedicated to enforcing our border laws, ending sanctuary cities, and stemming the tide of lawlessness associated with illegal immigration.
Supporting law enforcement also means deporting illegal aliens with violent criminal records who have remained within our borders.
It is the first duty of government to keep the innocent safe, and President Donald Trump will fight for the safety of every American, and especially those Americans who have not known safe neighborhoods for a very long time.
I thought the "whether you are born in Detroit or Nebraska" bit was rather moving. But I have to say I am now officially scared shitless by Trump. Not funny any more.
Every sane person is scared shitless by him. He is a brilliant speaker. Not just the content but also the pained way that he speaks - they are both very reminiscent of Hitler.
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
Even this I am sceptical about. A sizeable number of people essential earn their wage with their hands rather than their minds. Robots are increasingly good as doing manual work, and in the foreseeable future will be doing most of it. You can't educate people to have better brains, maybe a third of people will only ever be capable of manual (skilled or otherwise) work.
They'll lynch him when they realise that the factories coming back doesn't mean that the jobs will come back with them.
Well, yes. The Fort Dearborn auto plant used to employ 110,000 people (skilled blue collar workers, mostly) at its peak. It's now under 4,000, and will drop to 2,500 by end 2018. Production will rise, but most jobs - except the minimum wage security guards - will go to white collar engineers who tend the machines.
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
Obama spent billions on 'education' with no real beneficial effects.
That is as maybe.
I can think of exactly two developed countries where median disposable income has risen markedly in the last 20 years: Switzerland and Germany. The common factors are: (1) very high household savings rates; (2) a strong focus on vocational education for the next 60%.
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
Even this I am sceptical about. A sizeable number of people essential earn their wage with their hands rather than their minds. Robots are increasingly good as doing manual work, and in the foreseeable future will be doing most of it. You can't educate people to have better brains, maybe a third of people will only ever be capable of manual (skilled or otherwise) work.
I love all the prognostications on here. We have no idea what is going to happen. It's all getting a bit SNP; any conceivable change of circumstance is a reason to cancel Brexit.
Yet here we are in the glorious 21st century, in a world that's richer than it has ever been, with the lowest child mortality, the lowest poverty rates, the fewest war deaths, the best technology and most developed science in all of human history. We live like royalty, dine on the produce of the world and our children are likely to be, if not immortal, centenarians at least. It's a wonderful time to be alive.
The effect of Trump's protectionism on Brexit is extremely hard to assess. You can see it working relatively well - as the rest of the world realises that it needs to increase non-US trade to compensate for American isolationism - or alternatively you can see a scenario where it's every man for himself, and we are left isolated having just thrown away our easy access to the huge European market.
On your second paragraph: well, quite. From reading the press, comments here, and speeches by many politicians, you'd think the world has gone to hell in a handcart over the last twenty years or more. In fact it has been a time of unprecedented peace and hugely increased prosperity for pretty much everyone. Even the 'left behind' are a hell of a lot less left behind than their equivalents in any other age of man.
Of course, there's no guarantee that such benign conditions will last for ever, and the election of Trump could well be the trigger for reversing them.
"The bible tells us how good and pleasant it is when god’s people live together in unity."
What?? The Old Testament, as Trump's religion calls it, says that the Jews are God's chosen people. The view in the New Testament is that we are all God's people. Neither of those collections of documents contains any suggestion that God's people are the people of the United States.
"We stand at the birth of a new millennium, ready to unlock the mysteries of space, to free the earth from the miseries of disease, to harvest the energies, industries and technologies of tomorrow."
This guy is gaga!
Unfortunately, I suspect that many who voted against him will be inspired by the Great Leader.
Three items that were conspicuous by their absence:
1) any reference to an international movement, to the worldwide spirit of the times that Il Duce is channelling - in short, anything that could be interpreted as support for far-right populist movements in other countries, such as in Europe
2) climate change
3) Scotland. I was dreading learning that he had invoked his Scottish heritage, and pleased that he didn't.
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
Even this I am sceptical about. A sizeable number of people essential earn their wage with their hands rather than their minds. Robots are increasingly good as doing manual work, and in the foreseeable future will be doing most of it. You can't educate people to have better brains, maybe a third of people will only ever be capable of manual (skilled or otherwise) work.
I'm skeptical about this too. People have been suggesting that Labour will be replaced since the Luddites (if not before). Instead people find new things to do any of which may have seemed either impossible or utterly pointless in another era. That will continue.
Edit not sure if this addresses your point. Thought you were suggesting in the future there won't be jobs for people as robots will do manual work.
I love all the prognostications on here. We have no idea what is going to happen. It's all getting a bit SNP; any conceivable change of circumstance is a reason to cancel Brexit.
Yet here we are in the glorious 21st century, in a world that's richer than it has ever been, with the lowest child mortality, the lowest poverty rates, the fewest war deaths, the best technology and most developed science in all of human history. We live like royalty, dine on the produce of the world and our children are likely to be, if not immortal, centenarians at least. It's a wonderful time to be alive.
The effect of Trump's protectionism on Brexit is extremely hard to assess. You can see it working relatively well - as the rest of the world realises that it needs to increase non-US trade to compensate for American isolationism - or alternatively you can see a scenario where it's every man for himself, and we are left isolated having just thrown away our easy access to the huge European market.
On your second paragraph: well, quite. From reading the press, comments here, and speeches by many politicians, you'd think the world has gone to hell in a handcart over the last twenty years or more. In fact it has been a time of unprecedented peace and hugely increased prosperity for pretty much everyone. Even the 'left behind' are a hell of a lot less left behind than their equivalents in any other age of man.
Of course, there's no guarantee that such benign conditions will last for ever, and the election of Trump could well be the trigger for reversing them.
Even if Brexit is at the lower end of expectations, it's still not a disaster (using any recognisable meaning of the word). We might end up like Italy, on the economic cross for a decade or more. I believe Italian people still love, laugh and live even so.
We are reverting to a medieval mindset; a belief that our best days are behind us, that the future is something to be feared. I find it almost incomprehensible how pessimistic people have become.
How utterly depressing. That quite possibly means the end of the Paris Climate Agreement and, with it, the last real change of limiting carbon emissions. If you want your descendants to inherit the family home, best make sure it's on high ground!
Good. Climate change is economic voodoo. We will adapt. The best periods for life on earth - a provable fact in terms of species variety - have been the warmer periods.
There's a small, but not completely negligible, chance that burning all accessible fossil fuels will turn the Earth into another Venus. Our descendants may have some difficulties adapting to that.
There's a considerably greater chance that we are headed for another humanity-crushing Ice Age, judging by climatological history, so put that in you coal fired power station, and smoke it.
No, there isn't. The large swings in temperature associated with the ice ages were driven by greenhouse gas feedback. CO2 was at about 180 ppm during the depths of the ice age, rising to about 280 ppm during interglacial periods. It's now just over 400 ppm and rising rapidly. We've already far more than cancelled the next ice age.
Absolutely not true. It is well established that insolation and continental positioning are the major factor behind ice ages. And there's a long way to go before we start converging on the 7,000 ppm of the Cambrian era.
If global warming is occurring, it's a bugger for Game of Thrones - getting harder to find reliably wintry filming locations now that Winter Has Come.
I'm referring to the interglacial periods within the current ice age. Continents don't shift appreciably and solar output is relatively constant on that short a time scale. You need greenhouse feedback to get interglacial warming.
The sun was weak, and the continents differently arranged in the Cambrian era. It's not comparable with today.
"Scientists" don't know what caused or what ended the "Little Ice Age" during which there were ice fairs on the Thames. Climate change is the only thing I agree with Trump on.
I love all the prognostications on here. We have no idea what is going to happen. It's all getting a bit SNP; any conceivable change of circumstance is a reason to cancel Brexit.
Yet here we are in the glorious 21st century, in a world that's richer than it has ever been, with the lowest child mortality, the lowest poverty rates, the fewest war deaths, the best technology and most developed science in all of human history. We live like royalty, dine on the produce of the world and our children are likely to be, if not immortal, centenarians at least. It's a wonderful time to be alive.
The effect of Trump's protectionism on Brexit is extremely hard to assess. You can see it working relatively well - as the rest of the world realises that it needs to increase non-US trade to compensate for American isolationism - or alternatively you can see a scenario where it's every man for himself, and we are left isolated having just thrown away our easy access to the huge European market.
On your second paragraph: well, quite. From reading the press, comments here, and speeches by many politicians, you'd think the world has gone to hell in a handcart over the last twenty years or more. In fact it has been a time of unprecedented peace and hugely increased prosperity for pretty much everyone. Even the 'left behind' are a hell of a lot less left behind than their equivalents in any other age of man.
Of course, there's no guarantee that such benign conditions will last for ever, and the election of Trump could well be the trigger for reversing them.
I think Theresa May has less to worry about from that speech than the leaders of a lot of other countries e.g. Germany, China, Mexico, Saudi
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
Even this I am sceptical about. A sizeable number of people essential earn their wage with their hands rather than their minds. Robots are increasingly good as doing manual work, and in the foreseeable future will be doing most of it. You can't educate people to have better brains, maybe a third of people will only ever be capable of manual (skilled or otherwise) work.
It isn't manufacturing which is the low hanging fruit, it's transactions - human beings taking money and answering phones and so on. Or rather, and scarily, it's both.
Commentator on Sky saying that the big trade deals with Asia, the EU and NAFTA will be ended but that the US will be in favour of trade deals with individual Countries.
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
Even this I am sceptical about. A sizeable number of people essential earn their wage with their hands rather than their minds. Robots are increasingly good as doing manual work, and in the foreseeable future will be doing most of it. You can't educate people to have better brains, maybe a third of people will only ever be capable of manual (skilled or otherwise) work.
I'm skeptical about this too. People have been suggesting that Labour will be replaced since the Luddites (if not before). Instead people find new things to do any of which may have seemed either impossible or utterly pointless in another era. That will continue.
Edit not sure if this addresses your point. Thought you were suggesting in the future there won't be jobs for people as robots will do manual work.
I know several people who make their living from streaming - and a good living at that. I have faith in the power of creative destruction .
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
Even this I am sceptical about. A sizeable number of people essential earn their wage with their hands rather than their minds. Robots are increasingly good as doing manual work, and in the foreseeable future will be doing most of it. You can't educate people to have better brains, maybe a third of people will only ever be capable of manual (skilled or otherwise) work.
I'm skeptical about this too. People have been suggesting that Labour will be replaced since the Luddites (if not before). Instead people find new things to do any of which may have seemed either impossible or utterly pointless in another era. That will continue.
Edit sorry misread your point. Thought you were suggesting in the future there won't be jobs for people.
So when you go into the office on Monday and see a new box sitting on your desk, and your boss calls you in and tells you that you have been replaced by an expert system so terribly sorry but you are fired.... how do you plan to pay your mortgage for the next few years ?
Most people, even white collar jobs, get qualified for a relatively narrow range of jobs, and the experience which makes them valuable makes it even narrower. Sure you can say you will retrain, but in most cases you will be starting your new job at the entry level, competing against a 25 year old, because your previous professional experience is worthless. The most able, and the cleverest can bridge this gap with natural talent to some extent, most people not so much.
I was a software developer, after doing it for 20 years I hated developing software, but I was largely stuck, I had a range of quite specialist experience that made the salary I could command quite high. I couldn't think I another job outside software I could move to that would give me even half the income. As it is I make about a tenth the income I used to now, but life is good.. but it wouldnt be on this sort of income in the UK
Commentator on Sky saying that the big trade deals with Asia, the EU and NAFTA will be ended but that the US will be in favour of trade deals with individual Countries.
Of course - it is much better placed to dictate terms in those.
Commentator on Sky saying that the big trade deals with Asia, the EU and NAFTA will be ended but that the US will be in favour of trade deals with individual Countries.
So long as said countries agree to accept ISDS tribunals and accept US product standards.
That is why the President has proposed a moratorium on new federal regulations and is ordering the heads of federal agencies and departments to identify job-killing regulations that should be repealed.
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
Even this I am sceptical about. A sizeable number of people essential earn their wage with their hands rather than their minds. Robots are increasingly good as doing manual work, and in the foreseeable future will be doing most of it. You can't educate people to have better brains, maybe a third of people will only ever be capable of manual (skilled or otherwise) work.
It isn't manufacturing which is the low hanging fruit, it's transactions - human beings taking money and answering phones and so on. Or rather, and scarily, it's both.
Commentator on Sky saying that the big trade deals with Asia, the EU and NAFTA will be ended but that the US will be in favour of trade deals with individual Countries.
Of course - it is much better placed to dictate terms in those.
I do believe that the EU problems have just been greatly expanded and the internal pressures within are going to create enormous strain within the member states.
I actually think that today is not a negative for Brexit
I love all the prognostications on here. We have no idea what is going to happen. It's all getting a bit SNP; any conceivable change of circumstance is a reason to cancel Brexit.
Yet here we are in the glorious 21st century, in a world that's richer than it has ever been, with the lowest child mortality, the lowest poverty rates, the fewest war deaths, the best technology and most developed science in all of human history. We live like royalty, dine on the produce of the world and our children are likely to be, if not immortal, centenarians at least. It's a wonderful time to be alive.
The effect of Trump's protectionism on Brexit is extremely hard to assess. You can see it working relatively well - as the rest of the world realises that it needs to increase non-US trade to compensate for American isolationism - or alternatively you can see a scenario where it's every man for himself, and we are left isolated having just thrown away our easy access to the huge European market.
On your second paragraph: well, quite. From reading the press, comments here, and speeches by many politicians, you'd think the world has gone to hell in a handcart over the last twenty years or more. In fact it has been a time of unprecedented peace and hugely increased prosperity for pretty much everyone. Even the 'left behind' are a hell of a lot less left behind than their equivalents in any other age of man.
Of course, there's no guarantee that such benign conditions will last for ever, and the election of Trump could well be the trigger for reversing them.
I think Theresa May has less to worry about from that speech than the leaders of a lot of other countries e.g. Germany, China, Mexico, Saudi
Germany is in the heart of a single market of 450 million people; China has a population of 1 billion and the muscle to negotiate good free trade agreements, Saudi Arabia has oil and a tiny population. You might have a point on Mexico.
Commentator on Sky saying that the big trade deals with Asia, the EU and NAFTA will be ended but that the US will be in favour of trade deals with individual Countries.
The Whitehouse website does not confirm that:-
With a lifetime of negotiating experience, the President understands how critical it is to put American workers and businesses first when it comes to trade. With tough and fair agreements, international trade can be used to grow our economy, return millions of jobs to America’s shores, and revitalize our nation’s suffering communities.
This strategy starts by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and making certain that any new trade deals are in the interests of American workers. President Trump is committed to renegotiating NAFTA. If our partners refuse a renegotiation that gives American workers a fair deal, then the President will give notice of the United States’ intent to withdraw from NAFTA.
In addition to rejecting and reworking failed trade deals, the United States will crack down on those nations that violate trade agreements and harm American workers in the process. The President will direct the Commerce Secretary to identify all trade violations and to use every tool at the federal government’s disposal to end these abuses.
I suggest 'Clinton', which I hope will be settled as a winner:
Chief Justice Roberts, President Carter, President Clinton, President Bush, President Obama, fellow Americans, and people of the world: thank you.
Didn't bet on it myself though - the max stake was too pathetic to be worth clicking one's finger on.
Decent tip, single word ;an ex pres who was always going to be there. Of course Hillary is a historical irrelevance in the grander scheme of things, but the buzzword didn't specify it.
Commentator on Sky saying that the big trade deals with Asia, the EU and NAFTA will be ended but that the US will be in favour of trade deals with individual Countries.
TPP with Asia was already dead, TTIP was already dead, and for the purposes of trade negotiations the EU is like a single country. It's NAFTA and the WTO that will really feel the heat.
I love all the prognostications on here. We have no idea what is going to happen. It's all getting a bit SNP; any conceivable change of circumstance is a reason to cancel Brexit.
Yet here we are in the glorious 21st century, in a world that's richer than it has ever been, with the lowest child mortality, the lowest poverty rates, the fewest war deaths, the best technology and most developed science in all of human history. We live like royalty, dine on the produce of the world and our children are likely to be, if not immortal, centenarians at least. It's a wonderful time to be alive.
The effect of Trump's protectionism on Brexit is extremely hard to assess. You can see it working relatively well - as the rest of the world realises that it needs to increase non-US trade to compensate for American isolationism - or alternatively you can see a scenario where it's every man for himself, and we are left isolated having just thrown away our easy access to the huge European market.
On your second paragraph: well, quite. From reading the press, comments here, and speeches by many politicians, you'd think the world has gone to hell in a handcart over the last twenty years or more. In fact it has been a time of unprecedented peace and hugely increased prosperity for pretty much everyone. Even the 'left behind' are a hell of a lot less left behind than their equivalents in any other age of man.
Of course, there's no guarantee that such benign conditions will last for ever, and the election of Trump could well be the trigger for reversing them.
Even if Brexit is at the lower end of expectations, it's still not a disaster (using any recognisable meaning of the word). We might end up like Italy, on the economic cross for a decade or more. I believe Italian people still love, laugh and live even so.
We are reverting to a medieval mindset; a belief that our best days are behind us, that the future is something to be feared. I find it almost incomprehensible how pessimistic people have become.
My mindset is that we are about to make it more time-consuming and expensive to do business in our single biggest export market, while the leader of another of our big export markets has just come out in favour of protectionism. I doubt many medieval people thought like that.
Commentator on Sky saying that the big trade deals with Asia, the EU and NAFTA will be ended but that the US will be in favour of trade deals with individual Countries.
Of course - it is much better placed to dictate terms in those.
I find it almost incomprehensible how pessimistic people have become.
Amen to that, from an atheist.
Wealth is relative. Happiness arises from how we interpret the world, not something the outside world does to us.
Shackleton's men recounted some of the happiest days of their lives were while trapped on the ice, after Endeavour had sunk, in the midst of the Antarctic winter, living in tents through the fabric of which they could see the stars, with no earthly reason to believe that they would ever get out of it alive, save their faith in Shackleton himself. If they could be happy through that, whyever would it be impossible to be happy after a little Brexit?
At least leaving the EU should see the death of EC Sales lists and intrastat, two returns that I'm sure the geniuses at HMRC think should somewhat match up (Ours never do anyway).
& Our shipping will be externally consistent for the whole world now.
Even if Brexit is at the lower end of expectations, it's still not a disaster (using any recognisable meaning of the word). We might end up like Italy, on the economic cross for a decade or more. I believe Italian people still love, laugh and live even so.
We are reverting to a medieval mindset; a belief that our best days are behind us, that the future is something to be feared. I find it almost incomprehensible how pessimistic people have become.
My mindset is that we are about to make it more time-consuming and expensive to do business in our single biggest export market, while the leader of another of our big export markets has just come out in favour of protectionism. I doubt many medieval people thought like that.
Which may mean that our GDP isn't quite as good as it otherwise might be, but this is probably going to be true of most of our trading partners for similar reasons, so no one is going to feel significantly worse off compared to anyone else. Even so the link between GDP and household income, the bit people reason care about, is pretty tenuous, money going into the swiss bank accounts of corporate shareholders doesn't make the voter as a whole feel any better.
Even if all that were true people will still be living longer and more healthy lives, and as John_M says they will still laugh, love and live.
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
Even this I am sceptical about. A sizeable number of people essential earn their wage with their hands rather than their minds. Robots are increasingly good as doing manual work, and in the foreseeable future will be doing most of it. You can't educate people to have better brains, maybe a third of people will only ever be capable of manual (skilled or otherwise) work.
I'm skeptical about this too. People have been suggesting that Labour will be replaced since the Luddites (if not before). Instead people find new things to do any of which may have seemed either impossible or utterly pointless in another era. That will continue.
Edit sorry misread your point. Thought you were suggesting in the future there won't be jobs for people.
So when you go into the office on Monday and see a new box sitting on your desk, and your boss calls you in and tells you that you have been replaced by an expert system so terribly sorry but you are fired.... how do you plan to pay your mortgage for the next few years ?
Most people, even white collar jobs, get qualified for a relatively narrow range of jobs, and the experience which makes them valuable makes it even narrower. Sure you can say you will retrain, but in most cases you will be starting your new job at the entry level, competing against a 25 year old, because your previous professional experience is worthless. The most able, and the cleverest can bridge this gap with natural talent to some extent, most people not so much.
I was a software developer, after doing it for 20 years I hated developing software, but I was largely stuck, I had a range of quite specialist experience that made the salary I could command quite high. I couldn't think I another job outside software I could move to that would give me even half the income. As it is I make about a tenth the income I used to now, but life is good.. but it wouldnt be on this sort of income in the UK
I'm not saying it's easy or doesn't have individuals who suffer but all creative destruction works that way and is how we improve efficiency and progress.
The alternative is stagnation which isn't very attractive either especially when the progress continues in the rest of the world anyway without us.
I love all the prognostications on here. We have no idea what is going to happen. It's all getting a bit SNP; any conceivable change of circumstance is a reason to cancel Brexit.
Yet here we are in the glorious 21st century, in a world that's richer than it has ever been, with the lowest child mortality, the lowest poverty rates, the fewest war deaths, the best technology and most developed science in all of human history. We live like royalty, dine on the produce of the world and our children are likely to be, if not immortal, centenarians at least. It's a wonderful time to be alive.
The effect of Trump's protectionism on Brexit is extremely hard to assess. You can see it working relatively well - as the rest of the world realises that it needs to increase non-US trade to compensate for American isolationism - or alternatively you can see a scenario where it's every man for himself, and we are left isolated having just thrown away our easy access to the huge European market.
On your second paragraph: well, quite. From reading the press, comments here, and speeches by many politicians, you'd think the world has gone to hell in a handcart over the last twenty years or more. In fact it has been a time of unprecedented peace and hugely increased prosperity for pretty much everyone. Even the 'left behind' are a hell of a lot less left behind than their equivalents in any other age of man.
Of course, there's no guarantee that such benign conditions will last for ever, and the election of Trump could well be the trigger for reversing them.
I think Theresa May has less to worry about from that speech than the leaders of a lot of other countries e.g. Germany, China, Mexico, Saudi
Germany is in the heart of a single market of 450 million people; China has a population of 1 billion and the muscle to negotiate good free trade agreements, Saudi Arabia has oil and a tiny population. You might have a point on Mexico.
Germany is in a so called single market that is getting ripped apart having just misplaced over 64 million people and with the interests of Greeks, Italians, Spaniards etc not matching her own.
China has a billion still largely impoverished people.
Saudi Arabia has oil at a time the US has the resources and desire to be self sufficient in energy and Germany mentioned before is passing legislation to ban oil burning cars from being sold before too long.
Even if Brexit is at the lower end of expectations, it's still not a disaster (using any recognisable meaning of the word). We might end up like Italy, on the economic cross for a decade or more. I believe Italian people still love, laugh and live even so.
We are reverting to a medieval mindset; a belief that our best days are behind us, that the future is something to be feared. I find it almost incomprehensible how pessimistic people have become.
My mindset is that we are about to make it more time-consuming and expensive to do business in our single biggest export market, while the leader of another of our big export markets has just come out in favour of protectionism. I doubt many medieval people thought like that.
Which may mean that our GDP isn't quite as good as it otherwise might be, but this is probably going to be true of most of our trading partners for similar reasons, so no one is going to feel significantly worse off compared to anyone else. Even so the link between GDP and household income, the bit people reason care about, is pretty tenuous, money going into the swiss bank accounts of corporate shareholders doesn't make the voter as a whole feel any better.
Even if all that were true people will still be living longer and more healthy lives, and as John_M says they will still laugh, love and live.
Of course. But surely we take that as a given. People laughed, loved and lived in the middle ages too. Read Chaucer.
I love all the prognostications on here. We have no idea what is going to happen. It's all getting a bit SNP; any conceivable change of circumstance is a reason to cancel Brexit.
Yet here we are in the glorious 21st century, in a world that's richer than it has ever been, with the lowest child mortality, the lowest poverty rates, the fewest war deaths, the best technology and most developed science in all of human history. We live like royalty, dine on the produce of the world and our children are likely to be, if not immortal, centenarians at least. It's a wonderful time to be alive.
The effect of Trump's protectionism on Brexit is extremely hard to assess. You can see it working relatively well - as the rest of the world realises that it needs to increase non-US trade to compensate for American isolationism - or alternatively you can see a scenario where it's every man for himself, and we are left isolated having just thrown away our easy access to the huge European market.
On your second paragraph: well, quite. From reading the press, comments here, and speeches by many politicians, you'd think the world has gone to hell in a handcart over the last twenty years or more. In fact it has been a time of unprecedented peace and hugely increased prosperity for pretty much everyone. Even the 'left behind' are a hell of a lot less left behind than their equivalents in any other age of man.
Of course, there's no guarantee that such benign conditions will last for ever, and the election of Trump could well be the trigger for reversing them.
Even if Brexit is at the lower end of expectations, it's still not a disaster (using any recognisable meaning of the word). We might end up like Italy, on the economic cross for a decade or more. I believe Italian people still love, laugh and live even so.
We are reverting to a medieval mindset; a belief that our best days are behind us, that the future is something to be feared. I find it almost incomprehensible how pessimistic people have become.
My mindset is that we are about to make it more time-consuming and expensive to do business in our single biggest export market, while the leader of another of our big export markets has just come out in favour of protectionism. I doubt many medieval people thought like that.
No, they had to worry about actual problems, like starving to death, dying of plague, dying in childbirth or being murdered by bandits.
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
Even this I am sceptical about. A sizeable number of people essential earn their wage with their hands rather than their minds. Robots are increasingly good as doing manual work, and in the foreseeable future will be doing most of it. You can't educate people to have better brains, maybe a third of people will only ever be capable of manual (skilled or otherwise) work.
I'm skeptical about this too. People have been suggesting that Labour will be replaced since the Luddites (if not before). Instead people find new things to do any of which may have seemed either impossible or utterly pointless in another era. That will continue.
Edit sorry misread your point. Thought you were suggesting in the future there won't be jobs for people.
So when you go into the office on Monday and see a new box sitting on your desk, and your boss calls you in and tells you that you have been replaced by an expert system so terribly sorry but you are fired.... how do you plan to pay your mortgage for the next few years ?
Most people, even white collar jobs, get qualified for a relatively narrow range of jobs, and the experience which makes them valuable makes it even narrower. Sure you can say you will retrain, but in most cases you will be starting your new job at the entry level, competing against a 25 year old, because your previous professional experience is worthless. The most able, and the cleverest can bridge this gap with natural talent to some extent, most people not so much.
I was a software developer, after doing it for 20 years I hated developing software, but I was largely stuck, I had a range of quite specialist experience that made the salary I could command quite high. I couldn't think I another job outside software I could move to that would give me even half the income. As it is I make about a tenth the income I used to now, but life is good.. but it wouldnt be on this sort of income in the UK
In any job done well there are a ton of transferrable skills and habits. The biggest transferable skill is learning how to learn.
I have switched careers completely at 5 times. Each time I have switched, there has been a loss in salary initially. Most switches have ended up taking my earning potential higher. All have taken my learning potential higher.
Commentator on Sky saying that the big trade deals with Asia, the EU and NAFTA will be ended but that the US will be in favour of trade deals with individual Countries.
TPP with Asia was already dead, TTIP was already dead, and for the purposes of trade negotiations the EU is like a single country. It's NAFTA and the WTO that will really feel the heat.
It was only on Sunday that Trump was promising a quick trade deal with the US.
Some people really need to cool their jets.
It seems fairly clear that the US is in a similar frame of mind to the UK - we are both consumer nations that are beginning to question whether we are getting a fair deal considering how much of a living we provide so many with.
I have switched careers completely at 5 times. Each time I have switched, there has been a loss in salary initially. Most switches have ended up taking my earning potential higher. All have taken my learning potential higher.
I am guessing none of those was as a manual or skilled worker Like I said, the clever and able will always find ways to compensate, blue collar assembly workers not so much.
Comments
@DAaronovitch: I pity the ‘Im going to pretend the Trump speech was OK because I’m not a metropolitan pussy’ pundits.
If he does well for the WWC Americans he will be re-elected. There are insufficient AAs to stop the tide.
So maybe you should try and say "Hopefully four years of Trump will mobilise Americans to come out and vote in 202 " The fact you are relying on AAs just shows the racist way you look down on them and exemplifies the minority hugging attitude that the left hold.
BBC purposes = "The BBC will build a global understanding of international issues and broaden UK audiences' experience of different cultures."
https://twitter.com/Slate/status/822507106519678976
And this:
https://twitter.com/RudeComedian/status/822507478508302337
http://www.nytimes.com/1997/02/06/world/pamela-harriman-is-dead-at-76-an-ardent-political-personality.html
Fact is even with his support from WWC an increased turnout from African-Americans may have swung it for Clinton.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/global-greening-up-exponemtially-due-to-co2-increase.html
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth
https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/822509873334288385
EDIT: Obviously didn't see the speech...
If global warming is occurring, it's a bugger for Game of Thrones - getting harder to find reliably wintry filming locations now that Winter Has Come.
You know; I'm very relaxed regarding Trump and military stuff. He's going to force the Europeans to spend more, and - frankly - America being militarily stronger is probably a good thing. The infrastructure stuff is highly necessary. A lot of the tax stuff is spot on (if probably not going to happen to quite the extent promised).
But.
The trade stuff is dangerous. If we get into a world where everyone is raising tariffs, well, we've been there and it doesn't end well.
And vaccinations too. He's put a man who believes vaccines cause autism (and who compared their use to the 'holocaust') in charge of a committee on vaccines. That's also genuinely scary.
If - on the other hand - his actions worsen their plight, then he'll likely be hounded out of office.
for Brexiteers who think they've hit the jackpot by getting into bed with Trump have had the sudden realization that they've caught the clap.
Listen to your daughter Donald:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/donald-trump-daughter-ivanka-eyes-climate-change-global-warming-father-a7451441.html
Solving the problem of poor working class Americans means investing in education. And that's a long term issue.
The sun was weak, and the continents differently arranged in the Cambrian era. It's not comparable with today.
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKBN1541T3
Unfortunately, I suspect that many who voted against him will be inspired by the Great Leader.
Three items that were conspicuous by their absence:
1) any reference to an international movement, to the worldwide spirit of the times that Il Duce is channelling - in short, anything that could be interpreted as support for far-right populist movements in other countries, such as in Europe
2) climate change
3) Scotland. I was dreading learning that he had invoked his Scottish heritage, and pleased that he didn't.
Peace through strength will be at the center of that foreign policy. This principle will make possible a stable, more peaceful world with less conflict and more common ground.
Defeating ISIS and other radical Islamic terror groups will be our highest priority. To defeat and destroy these groups, we will pursue aggressive joint and coalition military operations when necessary. In addition, the Trump Administration will work with international partners to cut off funding for terrorist groups, to expand intelligence sharing, and to engage in cyberwarfare to disrupt and disable propaganda and recruiting.
Next, we will rebuild the American military. Our Navy has shrunk from more than 500 ships in 1991 to 275 in 2016. Our Air Force is roughly one third smaller than in 1991. President Trump is committed to reversing this trend, because he knows that our military dominance must be unquestioned.
Finally, in pursuing a foreign policy based on American interests, we will embrace diplomacy. The world must know that we do not go abroad in search of enemies, that we are always happy when old enemies become friends, and when old friends become allies.
The world will be more peaceful and more prosperous with a stronger and more respected America.
This strategy starts by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and making certain that any new trade deals are in the interests of American workers. President Trump is committed to renegotiating NAFTA. If our partners refuse a renegotiation that gives American workers a fair deal, then the President will give notice of the United States’ intent to withdraw from NAFTA.
In addition to rejecting and reworking failed trade deals, the United States will crack down on those nations that violate trade agreements and harm American workers in the process. The President will direct the Commerce Secretary to identify all trade violations and to use every tool at the federal government’s disposal to end these abuses.
To carry out his strategy, the President is appointing the toughest and smartest to his trade team, ensuring that Americans have the best negotiators possible. For too long, trade deals have been negotiated by, and for, members of the Washington establishment. President Trump will ensure that on his watch, trade policies will be implemented by and for the people, and will put America first.
By fighting for fair but tough trade deals, we can bring jobs back to America’s shores, increase wages, and support U.S. manufacturing.
Yet here we are in the glorious 21st century, in a world that's richer than it has ever been, with the lowest child mortality, the lowest poverty rates, the fewest war deaths, the best technology and most developed science in all of human history. We live like royalty, dine on the produce of the world and our children are likely to be, if not immortal, centenarians at least. It's a wonderful time to be alive.
Our job is not to make life more comfortable for the rioter, the looter, or the violent disrupter. Our job is to make life more comfortable for parents who want their kids to be able to walk the streets safely. Or the senior citizen waiting for a bus. Or the young child walking home from school.
Supporting law enforcement means supporting our citizens’ ability to protect themselves. We will uphold Americans’ Second Amendment rights at every level of our judicial system.
President Trump is committed to building a border wall to stop illegal immigration, to stop the gangs and the violence, and to stop the drugs from pouring into our communities. He is dedicated to enforcing our border laws, ending sanctuary cities, and stemming the tide of lawlessness associated with illegal immigration.
Supporting law enforcement also means deporting illegal aliens with violent criminal records who have remained within our borders.
It is the first duty of government to keep the innocent safe, and President Donald Trump will fight for the safety of every American, and especially those Americans who have not known safe neighborhoods for a very long time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpwkT2zV9H0
I can think of exactly two developed countries where median disposable income has risen markedly in the last 20 years: Switzerland and Germany. The common factors are: (1) very high household savings rates; (2) a strong focus on vocational education for the next 60%.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/26/mercedes-benz-robots-people-assembly-lines
On your second paragraph: well, quite. From reading the press, comments here, and speeches by many politicians, you'd think the world has gone to hell in a handcart over the last twenty years or more. In fact it has been a time of unprecedented peace and hugely increased prosperity for pretty much everyone. Even the 'left behind' are a hell of a lot less left behind than their equivalents in any other age of man.
Of course, there's no guarantee that such benign conditions will last for ever, and the election of Trump could well be the trigger for reversing them.
Unfortunately, I suspect that many who voted against him will be inspired by the Great Leader.
Three items that were conspicuous by their absence:
1) any reference to an international movement, to the worldwide spirit of the times that Il Duce is channelling - in short, anything that could be interpreted as support for far-right populist movements in other countries, such as in Europe
2) climate change
3) Scotland. I was dreading learning that he had invoked his Scottish heritage, and pleased that he didn't.
You've got quite a Hump today Dromedary.
Edit not sure if this addresses your point. Thought you were suggesting in the future there won't be jobs for people as robots will do manual work.
We are reverting to a medieval mindset; a belief that our best days are behind us, that the future is something to be feared. I find it almost incomprehensible how pessimistic people have become.
"Healing the wounds ?"
Most people, even white collar jobs, get qualified for a relatively narrow range of jobs, and the experience which makes them valuable makes it even narrower. Sure you can say you will retrain, but in most cases you will be starting your new job at the entry level, competing against a 25 year old, because your previous professional experience is worthless. The most able, and the cleverest can bridge this gap with natural talent to some extent, most people not so much.
I was a software developer, after doing it for 20 years I hated developing software, but I was largely stuck, I had a range of quite specialist experience that made the salary I could command quite high. I couldn't think I another job outside software I could move to that would give me even half the income. As it is I make about a tenth the income I used to now, but life is good.. but it wouldnt be on this sort of income in the UK
That is why the President has proposed a moratorium on new federal regulations and is ordering the heads of federal agencies and departments to identify job-killing regulations that should be repealed.
Chief Justice Roberts, President Carter, President Clinton, President Bush, President Obama, fellow Americans, and people of the world: thank you.
Didn't bet on it myself though - the max stake was too pathetic to be worth clicking one's finger on.
I actually think that today is not a negative for Brexit
With a lifetime of negotiating experience, the President understands how critical it is to put American workers and businesses first when it comes to trade. With tough and fair agreements, international trade can be used to grow our economy, return millions of jobs to America’s shores, and revitalize our nation’s suffering communities.
This strategy starts by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and making certain that any new trade deals are in the interests of American workers. President Trump is committed to renegotiating NAFTA. If our partners refuse a renegotiation that gives American workers a fair deal, then the President will give notice of the United States’ intent to withdraw from NAFTA.
In addition to rejecting and reworking failed trade deals, the United States will crack down on those nations that violate trade agreements and harm American workers in the process. The President will direct the Commerce Secretary to identify all trade violations and to use every tool at the federal government’s disposal to end these abuses.
I didn't bother either.
Only 500 to date but I expect 100,000 in a week.
Wealth is relative. Happiness arises from how we interpret the world, not something the outside world does to us.
Shackleton's men recounted some of the happiest days of their lives were while trapped on the ice, after Endeavour had sunk, in the midst of the Antarctic winter, living in tents through the fabric of which they could see the stars, with no earthly reason to believe that they would ever get out of it alive, save their faith in Shackleton himself. If they could be happy through that, whyever would it be impossible to be happy after a little Brexit?
& Our shipping will be externally consistent for the whole world now.
Even if all that were true people will still be living longer and more healthy lives, and as John_M says they will still laugh, love and live.
The alternative is stagnation which isn't very attractive either especially when the progress continues in the rest of the world anyway without us.
https://www.mindsetworks.com
In particular, you may want to read the science behind it:
https://www.mindsetworks.com/Science/Default
I'm sure that's comforting.........
The man's a nutter and the reputation of American's has taken one HUMONGOUS hit
China has a billion still largely impoverished people.
Saudi Arabia has oil at a time the US has the resources and desire to be self sufficient in energy and Germany mentioned before is passing legislation to ban oil burning cars from being sold before too long.
I have switched careers completely at 5 times. Each time I have switched, there has been a loss in salary initially. Most switches have ended up taking my earning potential higher. All have taken my learning potential higher.
Some people really need to cool their jets.
It seems fairly clear that the US is in a similar frame of mind to the UK - we are both consumer nations that are beginning to question whether we are getting a fair deal considering how much of a living we provide so many with.
http://img.wonkette.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/KKK-America-First.jpg