Worst demographics in the Western world. Alongside Japan, it's a lesson in what happens when people stop having babies.
Leaving the Euro will probably help Italy, a bit, in that it will enable the country to become poorer by stealth. But it won't stop the fact that there are a diminishing number of working age Italians, supporting an ever larger number of retired ones, and health care costs are ever rising.
I have a theory that birthrates decline not only because of birth control but due to a lower standard of living.
Italy, Japan, Greece, the eastern block ect. had a nosedive which coincided with the arrival of mass unemployment or permanent recession in each of those countries.
That the birthrates recovered in some eastern block countries along with rising living standards after the 90's crash aids my theory.
There's certainly truth in that. With a big but.
The lowest TFR in the world (that I know of) is Shanghai province in China. 0.68 babies per woman over her reproductive years. And Shanghai is the richest part of the fastest growing country on earth.
The Italian TFR collapsed in the 1970s and 1980s, a 25 year period that ended with Italy as a bigger exporter than China, the US or Germany. It's not budged since.
Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea also have very low TFR despite strogly growing economies.
TFR is falling worldwide, perhaps most dramatically in Iran. It mostly correlates with female education and employment.
It is also important for control of the worldwide population. It is how we adapt to it that matters.
Anecdote alert.
A Japanese man who visited America for the first time was astounded that people lived in such large houses, he complained that in Japan there is no room for a family to live in a city apartment yet a single person could have a such a large house all to himself in america.
That's when I first formed the idea that the Quality of Life can drive birth rates.
seems like a fairly ignorant japanese man. Perfectly possible to find large houses. here 50 mins from Tokyo station by shinkansen. Cheap too, especially if you buy a house >20 years old.
Yup, the Western image of this is distorted by the fact that journalists and short-term expats don't get out of the cities much.
Worst demographics in the Western world. Alongside Japan, it's a lesson in what happens when people stop having babies.
Leaving the Euro will probably help Italy, a bit, in that it will enable the country to become poorer by stealth. But it won't stop the fact that there are a diminishing number of working age Italians, supporting an ever larger number of retired ones, and health care costs are ever rising.
I have a theory that birthrates decline not only because of birth control but due to a lower standard of living.
Italy, Japan, Greece, the eastern block ect. had a nosedive which coincided with the arrival of mass unemployment or permanent recession in each of those countries.
That the birthrates recovered in some eastern block countries along with rising living standards after the 90's crash aids my theory.
There's certainly truth in that. With a big but.
The lowest TFR in the world (that I know of) is Shanghai province in China. 0.68 babies per woman over her reproductive years. And Shanghai is the richest part of the fastest growing country on earth.
The Italian TFR collapsed in the 1970s and 1980s, a 25 year period that ended with Italy as a bigger exporter than China, the US or Germany. It's not budged since.
Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea also have very low TFR despite strogly growing economies.
TFR is falling worldwide, perhaps most dramatically in Iran. It mostly correlates with female education and employment.
It is also important for control of the worldwide population. It is how we adapt to it that matters.
Anecdote alert.
A Japanese man who visited America for the first time was astounded that people lived in such large houses, he complained that in Japan there is no room for a family to live in a city apartment yet a single person could have a such a large house all to himself in america.
That's when I first formed the idea that the Quality of Life can drive birth rates.
But Singapore has - by any measure - one of the highest standards of living in the world. And it has tiny homes.
Are they deluded? And if so, why are so many people trying to go to Singapore, and so few people trying to leave?
There is also a discipline to living in a small place - limitation on junk and need to be tidy. I suffer the opposite problem, too much space and too much junk
There's probably an optimal population density for procreation. I'd like to study it, but my wife might disapprove.
Worst demographics in the Western world. Alongside Japan, it's a lesson in what happens when people stop having babies.
Leaving the Euro will probably help Italy, a bit, in that it will enable the country to become poorer by stealth. But it won't stop the fact that there are a diminishing number of working age Italians, supporting an ever larger number of retired ones, and health care costs are ever rising.
I have a theory that birthrates decline not only because of birth control but due to a lower standard of living.
Italy, Japan, Greece, the eastern block ect. had a nosedive which coincided with the arrival of mass unemployment or permanent recession in each of those countries.
That the birthrates recovered in some eastern block countries along with rising living standards after the 90's crash aids my theory.
There's certainly truth in that. With a big but.
The lowest TFR in the world (that I know of) is Shanghai province in China. 0.68 babies per woman over her reproductive years. And Shanghai is the richest part of the fastest growing country on earth.
The Italian TFR collapsed in the 1970s and 1980s, a 25 year period that ended with Italy as a bigger exporter than China, the US or Germany. It's not budged since.
Point of Order, Mr Speaker. The fastest growing economy on earth (of any significant size) is no longer China. It is India. A fact often overlooked.
The "secret" polling (that anyone could find on the Internet) during the last two weeks was very clearly announcing a "No" but not by that kind of margin. The most optimistic I saw was 55/45 on Friday. However, all these polls also made clear that if turnout went over 60%, the No would trounce the Yes. The 1.38 you could get on Betfair even a few minutes before polls opened was very generous.
I don't really buy that - the Dollar held against the euro for most of November, and of course rose against it when the Italy vote started to loom. £/€ has also been rising. The £ has perked up a bit first with A50 and then when the government stoppped hinting about hard and started hinting about soft.
I don't really buy that - the Dollar held against the euro for most of November, and of course rose against it when the Italy vote started to loom. £/€ has also been rising. The £ has perked up a bit first with A50 and then when the government stoppped hinting about hard and started hinting about soft.
Reasons for currency movements are often in the eye of the beholder - other factors to consider include the relatively good UK economic news and a partial unwinding from the cataclysm that failed (so far) to materialise - yet was widely predicted.....
Edit - and the Islam comparison is fatuous - BREXIT will affect 100% of the UK economy - ItalRef only affects 16% of the Eurozone.....
It is Italy’s banking system, though, which analysts expect to be at the centre of any market fallout from the referendum. Saddled with about €360bn of problematic loans, the banking sector has lost more than half its market value this year as investors struggle to gain confidence in any solutions to recapitalise the most troubled lenders.
I don't really buy that - the Dollar held against the euro for most of November, and of course rose against it when the Italy vote started to loom. £/€ has also been rising. The £ has perked up a bit first with A50 and then when the government stoppped hinting about hard and started hinting about soft.
Reasons for currency movements are often in the eye of the beholder - other factors to consider include the relatively good UK economic news and a partial unwinding from the cataclysm that failed (so far) to materialise - yet was widely predicted.....
Edit - and the Islam comparison is fatuous - BREXIT will affect 100% of the UK economy - ItalRef only affects 16% of the Eurozone.....
Like all markets it is sentiment driven; I follow it daily and there is no denying that, in the short term at least, sentiment favours the £ on days when there has been news reducing the prospect of a fast hard Brexit. Whether that view underlines the slower longer term recovery over the past month or so is of course a subjective judgement. There is however no arguing with the step change since June.
Current Betfair odds (midprice) Fillon 1.67 Le Pen 4.7 Macron 10 Valls 24 Montebourg 51 Mélenchon 82
Still no real left primary polling with turnout estimates The last one has Valls 67 Montebourg 33 among socialists voters But Valls 51 Montebourg 49 among all left-wing voters. The position of favorite is not always the easiest these days and all other candidates will fight Valls. I have layed off my gains on Valls and switched to Montebourg.
Other thoughts: Macron is still much too low, Fillon and Le Pen about right IMHO
...And the constellation of websites that Albright found – a sort of shadow internet – has another function. More than just spreading rightwing ideology, they are being used to track and monitor and influence anyone who comes across their content. “I scraped the trackers on these sites and I was absolutely dumbfounded. Every time someone likes one of these posts on Facebook or visits one of these websites, the scripts are then following you around the web. And this enables data-mining and influencing companies like Cambridge Analytica to precisely target individuals, to follow them around the web, and to send them highly personalised political messages. This is a propaganda machine. It’s targeting people individually to recruit them to an idea. It’s a level of social engineering that I’ve never seen before. They’re capturing people and then keeping them on an emotional leash and never letting them go.”
...And the constellation of websites that Albright found – a sort of shadow internet – has another function. More than just spreading rightwing ideology, they are being used to track and monitor and influence anyone who comes across their content. “I scraped the trackers on these sites and I was absolutely dumbfounded. Every time someone likes one of these posts on Facebook or visits one of these websites, the scripts are then following you around the web. And this enables data-mining and influencing companies like Cambridge Analytica to precisely target individuals, to follow them around the web, and to send them highly personalised political messages. This is a propaganda machine. It’s targeting people individually to recruit them to an idea. It’s a level of social engineering that I’ve never seen before. They’re capturing people and then keeping them on an emotional leash and never letting them go.”
Data is Facebook's entire business model. You're they're product that they sell to data miners and advertisers. That website is quite literally the world's greatest modern-era invasion of privacy, with over a billion willing participants.
Good to see that some of the more mainstream news media, who have been holding them up as a poster child of the Internet for the last decade, are finally understanding what they are and how they work.
Current Betfair odds (midprice) Fillon 1.67 Le Pen 4.7 Macron 10 Valls 24 Montebourg 51 Mélenchon 82
Still no real left primary polling with turnout estimates The last one has Valls 67 Montebourg 33 among socialists voters But Valls 51 Montebourg 49 among all left-wing voters. The position of favorite is not always the easiest these days and all other candidates will fight Valls. I have layed off my gains on Valls and switched to Montebourg.
Other thoughts: Macron is still much too low, Fillon and Le Pen about right IMHO
Having bought Macron at 18-24s over the last few months, I began selling him down under 10 this weekend. My personal view is that he's the clear choice of the Left/Centre, should they need a single candidate to coalesce around. He's certainly not value any more, but I'm not going short here.
I continue to think Le Pen is completely the wrong price. Against Fillon, she polls more than 2:1 down. If you're more than 2:1 down in a US state, you're a 16-1 shot, not a 4-1 shot. Obviously, there are more routes to the Presidency than that for Le Pen (notably getting someone like Melenchon in the second round), but she remains incredibly transfer unfriendly and the FN has repeatedly underperformed the polls, so I would be selling her at this point. Indeed, I think I'd want 6s before I even went neutral, and 8s before I considered being long.
This leaves Fillon as the value bet. 1.4 is probably more the right price for him.
Of the field, Melenchon is probably worth a tiny sum, but I don't really see the path to the second round unless Fillon blows up, and he collects almost all the Valls vote.
It is Italy’s banking system, though, which analysts expect to be at the centre of any market fallout from the referendum. Saddled with about €360bn of problematic loans, the banking sector has lost more than half its market value this year as investors struggle to gain confidence in any solutions to recapitalise the most troubled lenders.
The FT is predicting that Monte Pachi (Italy's most troubled lender) will be "rescued" today: Italy is expected to undertake a precautionary recapitalisation of the bank to avoid it being wound down under new EU rules, say people informed of the plan.
One big Monte Paschi investor said the extent of Mr Renzi’s loss was “a really bad result”. This person said they expected the private recapitalisation would be pulled and the Italian state would pump funds into the bank.
A precautionary recapitalisation would involve burden sharing by junior bondholders but with indemnification for investors up to a maximum of €100,000, said three people.
Assuming some kind of BMPS rescue happens today, there are three interesting questions:
1. How much is needed? Consensus is that BMPS needs about EUR5bn. Will the Italian government need to put in more?
2. Will the Italian government put two fingers up to the Germans and the ECB? Current bank bail-out rules (that everyone else agreed after they'd rescued their banks) require junior bond holders to bailed in. In Italy, junior bank bonds are owned largely by individuals. Allowing Italian savers to lose money on these will be politically unpopular. Could the Italian government just ignore the rules and bail out the banks without inflicting pain on junior bondholders?
3. Will Italy bite the bullet and create a bad bank for non performing loans? Historically, banking crises (in Germany, the UK, Ireland, Spain, etc.) are solved by creating a 'bad bank' that bought loans off the banks at a discount to their face value, but a premium to their market price. These bad banks then gradually unwound loan books, usually at a profit. Under new rules, this is state aid (because the government would be buying something from the banks at above market prices). Is there a way around this conundrum? Perhaps via the two fingers method... perhaps by the ECB working out some kind of rule where it only becomes state aid if the loans are eventually sold at a loss. (I.e. kicking the can 20 years down the road.)
Current Betfair odds (midprice) Fillon 1.67 Le Pen 4.7 Macron 10 Valls 24 Montebourg 51 Mélenchon 82
Still no real left primary polling with turnout estimates The last one has Valls 67 Montebourg 33 among socialists voters But Valls 51 Montebourg 49 among all left-wing voters. The position of favorite is not always the easiest these days and all other candidates will fight Valls. I have layed off my gains on Valls and switched to Montebourg.
Other thoughts: Macron is still much too low, Fillon and Le Pen about right IMHO
Having bought Macron at 18-24s over the last few months, I began selling him down under 10 this weekend. My personal view is that he's the clear choice of the Left/Centre, should they need a single candidate to coalesce around. He's certainly not value any more, but I'm not going short here.
I continue to think Le Pen is completely the wrong price. Against Fillon, she polls more than 2:1 down. If you're more than 2:1 down in a US state, you're a 16-1 shot, not a 4-1 shot. Obviously, there are more routes to the Presidency than that for Le Pen (notably getting someone like Melenchon in the second round), but she remains incredibly transfer unfriendly and the FN has repeatedly underperformed the polls, so I would be selling her at this point. Indeed, I think I'd want 6s before I even went neutral, and 8s before I considered being long.
This leaves Fillon as the value bet. 1.4 is probably more the right price for him.
Of the field, Melenchon is probably worth a tiny sum, but I don't really see the path to the second round unless Fillon blows up, and he collects almost all the Valls vote.
The best scenario for Macron would be a Montebourg win in the primary, so that he could take some Valls voters. However most socialists tend to see him as Brutus or Judas... I'm green on him but won't put on more at this price.
For Le Pen I certainly share your view that she has an extremely narrow path to a win. Baqsically Hollande was her best chance. However I do not see her price collapsing yet because so many punters seem to believe the polls are wrong... So I agree on your analysis but would not sell her as a trading bet now, more as a long-term one.
Fillon's price could ease again during the left primary if his poll lead weakens a bit due to having the socialists on tv all day long criticizing his program. I will wait for that opportunity as I am already well green on him anyway.
Melenchon could finish in front of Macron if Valls wins the primary and takes some centre-left votes from Macron. But that would not be for the second round, more like third place around 15%.
This is alarming stuff from the Guardian, which goes way beyond a left/right issue:
Try the experiment - type 'are jews' into google search & see what results you get - I didn't get the 'evil' suggestion the author did - but then perhaps suggestions are based on one's own browsing history......
For Le Pen I certainly share your view that she has an extremely narrow path to a win. Baqsically Hollande was her best chance. However I do not see her price collapsing yet because so many punters seem to believe the polls are wrong... So I agree on your analysis but would not sell her as a trading bet now, more as a long-term one.
Interesting. The funny bit about France is that - unlike in most other counties - we have a long history of FN votes vs FR poll share. So we can look at the last couple of years to see if it outperforms... and, so far, it doesn't.
To win, Le Pen needs a Left wing candidate (ideally Melenchon, put possibly Montebourg) to beat Fillon in the first round. (I suspect Valls would beat Le Pen in a head to head, and I feel sure Macron would.)
That requires Fillon to blow up big time. While that's certainly a possibility, it doesn't seem like it's a 4 or 5-1 shot; more like a 20-1 one.
This is alarming stuff from the Guardian, which goes way beyond a left/right issue:
Try the experiment - type 'are jews' into google search & see what results you get - I didn't get the 'evil' suggestion the author did - but then perhaps suggestions are based on one's own browsing history......
Google tailors your search results for what you search for. The author has accidentally revealed more than he means to.
For Le Pen I certainly share your view that she has an extremely narrow path to a win. Baqsically Hollande was her best chance. However I do not see her price collapsing yet because so many punters seem to believe the polls are wrong... So I agree on your analysis but would not sell her as a trading bet now, more as a long-term one.
Interesting. The funny bit about France is that - unlike in most other counties - we have a long history of FN votes vs FR poll share. So we can look at the last couple of years to see if it outperforms... and, so far, it doesn't.
To win, Le Pen needs a Left wing candidate (ideally Melenchon, put possibly Montebourg) to beat Fillon in the first round. (I suspect Valls would beat Le Pen in a head to head, and I feel sure Macron would.)
That requires Fillon to blow up big time. While that's certainly a possibility, it doesn't seem like it's a 4 or 5-1 shot; more like a 20-1 one.
Agreed. But you can read on pb.com loads of posts supporting the (left-wing) media narrative that Le Pen would beat Fillon because left-wing voters would support her against his thatcherian program. I disagree with them but they are numerous and have apparently big pockets on Betfair!
Not sure Macron would have a better chance that Valls against Le Pen, I would rate them the same. Macron is more centrist but is the (physical as well as political) embodiment of the elite. He is also much more tolerant of radical islam than Valls. He actually delayed his departure from the government last summer because of the Nice attack, as he had nothing much to say on security/antiterror issues. i think it is a weakness and it will cost him later on.
For Le Pen I certainly share your view that she has an extremely narrow path to a win. Baqsically Hollande was her best chance. However I do not see her price collapsing yet because so many punters seem to believe the polls are wrong... So I agree on your analysis but would not sell her as a trading bet now, more as a long-term one.
Interesting. The funny bit about France is that - unlike in most other counties - we have a long history of FN votes vs FR poll share. So we can look at the last couple of years to see if it outperforms... and, so far, it doesn't.
To win, Le Pen needs a Left wing candidate (ideally Melenchon, put possibly Montebourg) to beat Fillon in the first round. (I suspect Valls would beat Le Pen in a head to head, and I feel sure Macron would.)
That requires Fillon to blow up big time. While that's certainly a possibility, it doesn't seem like it's a 4 or 5-1 shot; more like a 20-1 one.
Agreed. But you can read on pb.com loads of posts supporting the (left-wing) media narrative that Le Pen would beat Fillon because left-wing voters would support her against his thatcherian program. I disagree with them but they are numerous and have apparently big pockets on Betfair!
Not sure Macron would have a better chance that Valls against Le Pen, I would rate them the same. Macron is more centrist but is the (physical as well as political) embodiment of the elite. He is also much more tolerant of radical islam than Valls. He actually delayed his departure from the government last summer because of the Nice attack, as he had nothing much to say on security/antiterror issues. i think it is a weakness and it will cost him later on.
Quick question for you - is Betfair Exchange available from a normal internet connection in France?
I'm in UAE and while pretty much every UK bookie (inc Betfair Sportsbook) is blocked here, Betfair Exchange does work. I'm wondering if that's a local anomaly here, or if it's widespread among ISP site blockers used in other countries too?
PS thanks for very informative posting in the last few weeks on the subject of the French elections.
This is alarming stuff from the Guardian, which goes way beyond a left/right issue:
Try the experiment - type 'are jews' into google search & see what results you get - I didn't get the 'evil' suggestion the author did - but then perhaps suggestions are based on one's own browsing history......
Google tailors your search results for what you search for. The author has accidentally revealed more than he means to.
Morning all.
Googled: “Are Jews” – suggestions in order were ‘a race’, ‘white’, ‘christians’ (sp)’
The author is a numpty, as the saying goes, if you go looking for shite, you’ll have no trouble finding it.
It is Italy’s banking system, though, which analysts expect to be at the centre of any market fallout from the referendum. Saddled with about €360bn of problematic loans, the banking sector has lost more than half its market value this year as investors struggle to gain confidence in any solutions to recapitalise the most troubled lenders.
The FT is predicting that Monte Pachi (Italy's most troubled lender) will be "rescued" today: Italy is expected to undertake a precautionary recapitalisation of the bank to avoid it being wound down under new EU rules, say people informed of the plan.
One big Monte Paschi investor said the extent of Mr Renzi’s loss was “a really bad result”. This person said they expected the private recapitalisation would be pulled and the Italian state would pump funds into the bank.
According to Fast FT, a rescue package for Italy's troubled bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena is now in doubt following the defeat by prime minister Matteo Renzi in Sunday's Italian referendum on constitutional reforms.
As Fast FT reports: "Monte Paschi and advisers JP Morgan and Mediobanca will meet as early as Monday morning to decide whether to pull a plan to go ahead with a E5bn recapitalisation, according to people informed of the plan. Senior bankers will decide whether to pursue their underwriting commitment or exercise their right to exit the transaction due to adverse market conditions, these people said. In the event the banks drop the capital plan, the Italian state is expect to nationalise the bank, say senior bankers."
Manuel Valls will announce officially his candidacy tonight at 6.30 pm CET (in time for the evening news) from his constituency in Evry.
The change of government is now scheduled for tomorrow, in time for the regular Wednesday cabinet meeting.
The next PM will apprently be one of the two "security" ministers: B. Cazeneuve (interior minister) or JY. Le Drian (Defense).
Some are ramping up rumors of M. Touraine (Health minister) or even N. Vallaud-Belkacem (Education), as a way for Hollande to have a female PM before he goes. It seems unlikely because both are quite unpopular (especially with doctors and teachers, respectively) and do not get along at all with Valls... Both are widely considered by their own MPs as way overpromoted already.
For Le Pen I certainly share your view that she has an extremely narrow path to a win. Baqsically Hollande was her best chance. However I do not see her price collapsing yet because so many punters seem to believe the polls are wrong... So I agree on your analysis but would not sell her as a trading bet now, more as a long-term one.
Interesting. The funny bit about France is that - unlike in most other counties - we have a long history of FN votes vs FR poll share. So we can look at the last couple of years to see if it outperforms... and, so far, it doesn't.
To win, Le Pen needs a Left wing candidate (ideally Melenchon, put possibly Montebourg) to beat Fillon in the first round. (I suspect Valls would beat Le Pen in a head to head, and I feel sure Macron would.)
That requires Fillon to blow up big time. While that's certainly a possibility, it doesn't seem like it's a 4 or 5-1 shot; more like a 20-1 one.
Agreed. But you can read on pb.com loads of posts supporting the (left-wing) media narrative that Le Pen would beat Fillon because left-wing voters would support her against his thatcherian program. I disagree with them but they are numerous and have apparently big pockets on Betfair!
Not sure Macron would have a better chance that Valls against Le Pen, I would rate them the same. Macron is more centrist but is the (physical as well as political) embodiment of the elite. He is also much more tolerant of radical islam than Valls. He actually delayed his departure from the government last summer because of the Nice attack, as he had nothing much to say on security/antiterror issues. i think it is a weakness and it will cost him later on.
Quick question for you - is Betfair Exchange available from a normal internet connection in France?
I'm in UAE and while pretty much every UK bookie (inc Betfair Sportsbook) is blocked here, Betfair Exchange does work. I'm wondering if that's a local anomaly here, or if it's widespread among ISP site blockers used in other countries too?
PS thanks for very informative posting in the last few weeks on the subject of the French elections.
Thanks. Betfair exchange is still available in France as far as I know but I'm currently outside France.
This is alarming stuff from the Guardian, which goes way beyond a left/right issue:
Try the experiment - type 'are jews' into google search & see what results you get - I didn't get the 'evil' suggestion the author did - but then perhaps suggestions are based on one's own browsing history......
Google tailors your search results for what you search for. The author has accidentally revealed more than he means to.
Morning all.
Googled: “Are Jews” – suggestions in order were ‘a race’, ‘white’, ‘christians’ (sp)’
The author is a numpty, as the saying goes, if you go looking for shite, you’ll have no trouble finding it.
For Le Pen I certainly share your view that she has an extremely narrow path to a win. Baqsically Hollande was her best chance. However I do not see her price collapsing yet because so many punters seem to believe the polls are wrong... So I agree on your analysis but would not sell her as a trading bet now, more as a long-term one.
Interesting. The funny bit about France is that - unlike in most other counties - we have a long history of FN votes vs FR poll share. So we can look at the last couple of years to see if it outperforms... and, so far, it doesn't.
To win, Le Pen needs a Left wing candidate (ideally Melenchon, put possibly Montebourg) to beat Fillon in the first round. (I suspect Valls would beat Le Pen in a head to head, and I feel sure Macron would.)
That requires Fillon to blow up big time. While that's certainly a possibility, it doesn't seem like it's a 4 or 5-1 shot; more like a 20-1 one.
Agreed. But you can read on pb.com loads of posts supporting the (left-wing) media narrative that Le Pen would beat Fillon because left-wing voters would support her against his thatcherian program. I disagree with them but they are numerous and have apparently big pockets on Betfair!
Not sure Macron would have a better chance that Valls against Le Pen, I would rate them the same. Macron is more centrist but is the (physical as well as political) embodiment of the elite. He is also much more tolerant of radical islam than Valls. He actually delayed his departure from the government last summer because of the Nice attack, as he had nothing much to say on security/antiterror issues. i think it is a weakness and it will cost him later on.
Quick question for you - is Betfair Exchange available from a normal internet connection in France?
I'm in UAE and while pretty much every UK bookie (inc Betfair Sportsbook) is blocked here, Betfair Exchange does work. I'm wondering if that's a local anomaly here, or if it's widespread among ISP site blockers used in other countries too?
PS thanks for very informative posting in the last few weeks on the subject of the French elections.
Thanks. Betfair exchange is still available in France as far as I know but I'm currently outside France.
Thanks for that. Good to see governments agree that peer-to-peer event prediction is definitely not gambling!
Worst demographics in the Western world. Alongside Japan, it's a lesson in what happens when people stop having babies.
Leaving the Euro will probably help Italy, a bit, in that it will enable the country to become poorer by stealth. But it won't stop the fact that there are a diminishing number of working age Italians, supporting an ever larger number of retired ones, and health care costs are ever rising.
I have a theory that birthrates decline not only because of birth control but due to a lower standard of living.
Italy, Japan, Greece, the eastern block ect. had a nosedive which coincided with the arrival of mass unemployment or permanent recession in each of those countries.
That the birthrates recovered in some eastern block countries along with rising living standards after the 90's crash aids my theory.
There's certainly truth in that. With a big but.
The lowest TFR in the world (that I know of) is Shanghai province in China. 0.68 babies per woman over her reproductive years. And Shanghai is the richest part of the fastest growing country on earth.
The Italian TFR collapsed in the 1970s and 1980s, a 25 year period that ended with Italy as a bigger exporter than China, the US or Germany. It's not budged since.
Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea also have very low TFR despite strogly growing economies.
TFR is falling worldwide, perhaps most dramatically in Iran. It mostly correlates with female education and employment.
It is also important for control of the worldwide population. It is how we adapt to it that matters.
Anecdote alert.
A Japanese man who visited America for the first time was astounded that people lived in such large houses, he complained that in Japan there is no room for a family to live in a city apartment yet a single person could have a such a large house all to himself in america.
That's when I first formed the idea that the Quality of Life can drive birth rates.
Tough across the US and rest of the world it is the rich who have the lowest TFR, not those more marginal. I don't think your contention holds up.
Do you know where you can find data on fertility rates by socioeconomic group?
In the UK, TFR hardly varies by region or SE group, but is highest in London and NI, probably because of ethnicity.
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38204189
I am getting to the age where I believe the best things are precisely those that can't be measured - at least not objectively and consistently.
{PS, I know what you are saying, and in work settings, I too generally prefer measurable indicators of success rather than unmeasurable ones}
No 60.0%
Yes 40.0%
http://elezioni.interno.it/referendum/scrutini/20161204/FI01000000000.htm
Latest results including overseas areas which are voting 66% Yes:
No 59.3%
Yes 40.7%
http://elezioni.interno.it/referendum/scrutini/20161204/FX01000.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/32nd_G8_summit
So, final count in Italy is essentially 60/40 for No, with the overseas vote coming in heavily (65/35) for Yes.
The 1.38 you could get on Betfair even a few minutes before polls opened was very generous.
Edit - and the Islam comparison is fatuous - BREXIT will affect 100% of the UK economy - ItalRef only affects 16% of the Eurozone.....
It is Italy’s banking system, though, which analysts expect to be at the centre of any market fallout from the referendum. Saddled with about €360bn of problematic loans, the banking sector has lost more than half its market value this year as investors struggle to gain confidence in any solutions to recapitalise the most troubled lenders.
https://www.ft.com/content/c11b230a-ba99-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080?ftcamp=published_links/rss/markets/feed//product
Current Betfair odds (midprice)
Fillon 1.67
Le Pen 4.7
Macron 10
Valls 24
Montebourg 51
Mélenchon 82
Still no real left primary polling with turnout estimates
The last one has
Valls 67 Montebourg 33 among socialists voters
But Valls 51 Montebourg 49 among all left-wing voters.
The position of favorite is not always the easiest these days and all other candidates will fight Valls.
I have layed off my gains on Valls and switched to Montebourg.
Other thoughts: Macron is still much too low, Fillon and Le Pen about right IMHO
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/04/google-democracy-truth-internet-search-facebook
...And the constellation of websites that Albright found – a sort of shadow internet – has another function. More than just spreading rightwing ideology, they are being used to track and monitor and influence anyone who comes across their content. “I scraped the trackers on these sites and I was absolutely dumbfounded. Every time someone likes one of these posts on Facebook or visits one of these websites, the scripts are then following you around the web. And this enables data-mining and influencing companies like Cambridge Analytica to precisely target individuals, to follow them around the web, and to send them highly personalised political messages. This is a propaganda machine. It’s targeting people individually to recruit them to an idea. It’s a level of social engineering that I’ve never seen before. They’re capturing people and then keeping them on an emotional leash and never letting them go.”
Good to see that some of the more mainstream news media, who have been holding them up as a poster child of the Internet for the last decade, are finally understanding what they are and how they work.
I continue to think Le Pen is completely the wrong price. Against Fillon, she polls more than 2:1 down. If you're more than 2:1 down in a US state, you're a 16-1 shot, not a 4-1 shot. Obviously, there are more routes to the Presidency than that for Le Pen (notably getting someone like Melenchon in the second round), but she remains incredibly transfer unfriendly and the FN has repeatedly underperformed the polls, so I would be selling her at this point. Indeed, I think I'd want 6s before I even went neutral, and 8s before I considered being long.
This leaves Fillon as the value bet. 1.4 is probably more the right price for him.
Of the field, Melenchon is probably worth a tiny sum, but I don't really see the path to the second round unless Fillon blows up, and he collects almost all the Valls vote.
One big Monte Paschi investor said the extent of Mr Renzi’s loss was “a really bad result”. This person said they expected the private recapitalisation would be pulled and the Italian state would pump funds into the bank.
A precautionary recapitalisation would involve burden sharing by junior bondholders but with indemnification for investors up to a maximum of €100,000, said three people.
Assuming some kind of BMPS rescue happens today, there are three interesting questions:
1. How much is needed? Consensus is that BMPS needs about EUR5bn. Will the Italian government need to put in more?
2. Will the Italian government put two fingers up to the Germans and the ECB? Current bank bail-out rules (that everyone else agreed after they'd rescued their banks) require junior bond holders to bailed in. In Italy, junior bank bonds are owned largely by individuals. Allowing Italian savers to lose money on these will be politically unpopular. Could the Italian government just ignore the rules and bail out the banks without inflicting pain on junior bondholders?
3. Will Italy bite the bullet and create a bad bank for non performing loans? Historically, banking crises (in Germany, the UK, Ireland, Spain, etc.) are solved by creating a 'bad bank' that bought loans off the banks at a discount to their face value, but a premium to their market price. These bad banks then gradually unwound loan books, usually at a profit. Under new rules, this is state aid (because the government would be buying something from the banks at above market prices). Is there a way around this conundrum? Perhaps via the two fingers method... perhaps by the ECB working out some kind of rule where it only becomes state aid if the loans are eventually sold at a loss. (I.e. kicking the can 20 years down the road.)
For Le Pen I certainly share your view that she has an extremely narrow path to a win. Baqsically Hollande was her best chance. However I do not see her price collapsing yet because so many punters seem to believe the polls are wrong... So I agree on your analysis but would not sell her as a trading bet now, more as a long-term one.
Fillon's price could ease again during the left primary if his poll lead weakens a bit due to having the socialists on tv all day long criticizing his program. I will wait for that opportunity as I am already well green on him anyway.
Melenchon could finish in front of Macron if Valls wins the primary and takes some centre-left votes from Macron. But that would not be for the second round, more like third place around 15%.
To win, Le Pen needs a Left wing candidate (ideally Melenchon, put possibly Montebourg) to beat Fillon in the first round. (I suspect Valls would beat Le Pen in a head to head, and I feel sure Macron would.)
That requires Fillon to blow up big time. While that's certainly a possibility, it doesn't seem like it's a 4 or 5-1 shot; more like a 20-1 one.
Not sure Macron would have a better chance that Valls against Le Pen, I would rate them the same. Macron is more centrist but is the (physical as well as political) embodiment of the elite. He is also much more tolerant of radical islam than Valls.
He actually delayed his departure from the government last summer because of the Nice attack, as he had nothing much to say on security/antiterror issues. i think it is a weakness and it will cost him later on.
I'm in UAE and while pretty much every UK bookie (inc Betfair Sportsbook) is blocked here, Betfair Exchange does work. I'm wondering if that's a local anomaly here, or if it's widespread among ISP site blockers used in other countries too?
PS thanks for very informative posting in the last few weeks on the subject of the French elections.
Googled: “Are Jews” – suggestions in order were ‘a race’, ‘white’, ‘christians’ (sp)’
The author is a numpty, as the saying goes, if you go looking for shite, you’ll have no trouble finding it.
As Fast FT reports: "Monte Paschi and advisers JP Morgan and Mediobanca will meet as early as Monday morning to decide whether to pull a plan to go ahead with a E5bn recapitalisation, according to people informed of the plan. Senior bankers will decide whether to pursue their underwriting commitment or exercise their right to exit the transaction due to adverse market conditions, these people said. In the event the banks drop the capital plan, the Italian state is expect to nationalise the bank, say senior bankers."
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rescue-for-monte-paschi-in-doubt-after-italian-referendum-defeat-ft-201612050028
The change of government is now scheduled for tomorrow, in time for the regular Wednesday cabinet meeting.
The next PM will apprently be one of the two "security" ministers: B. Cazeneuve (interior minister) or JY. Le Drian (Defense).
Some are ramping up rumors of M. Touraine (Health minister) or even N. Vallaud-Belkacem (Education), as a way for Hollande to have a female PM before he goes. It seems unlikely because both are quite unpopular (especially with doctors and teachers, respectively) and do not get along at all with Valls... Both are widely considered by their own MPs as way overpromoted already.
I shall look for data on the USA and in other countries.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.populationmatters.org/documents/family_sizes.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwiLk6WYu9zQAhUPOsAKHUVMCgEQFggiMAI&usg=AFQjCNHhUV3mfwjbcPqPHq7OSLVMsEt1zA&sig2=ZI9Mme3_nlWtyLrcJIiY7A