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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Saved by der Bellen but what will the Italian referendum bring

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Foreign will be "Yes" but won't change the result much at all.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I don't understand the hype around this referendum. If Renzi loses and quits over it, doesn't his party just pick a new guy and carry on governing?

    Betfair has a market on it.
    You can have as much on Yes at 21 as you want at the moment.

    Might be a trading bet if the first results are not typical.
    Isn't that the blind leading the blind, unless you're up on Italian political geography?

    I've taken my 35% return in two hours. OK so it was on £20 but still :P
    Pretty much so.

    But I just cashed out for a little profit.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Pulpstar said:

    Its a shame for Renzi, personally I think the reforms were well needed (I'm not a HOL fan) but alas 2016 seems to have got the better of him.

    agreed. Right idea, but people voted against elite not the question.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,406
    edited December 2016
    Can we spend the £350 million a week on grammar lessons for Leavers instead?

    https://twitter.com/JustYAMuslim/status/804777415163645952
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    Regardless of any political consequences this is the right result.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    I am still rather confused how this vote in Italy is being tied into as the bbc just put it "anti-establisment" senitment in the way the election in Austria was.

    A "no" is a vote for the status quo is if anything pro establishment.

    A NO is perceived as a weapon to overthrow a non-democratically elected PM.

    Don't forget Italy hasn't got a democratically elected PM since 2011.
  • Can we spend the £350 million a week on grammar lessons for Leavers instead?

    https://twitter.com/JustYAMuslim/status/804777415163645952

    £8.5 billion (2015, net figure) works out at £163 million a week.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,774
    edited December 2016
    Yes 45.5
    No 54.5

    10 sections counted

    EDIT Out of 61,000 so don't get too excited!
    That is 309 votes out of 46.7m electorate
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2016
    Looking like turnout could even top 70%.

    Stick a fork in him.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Barnesian said:

    Yes 45.5
    No 54.5

    10 sections counted

    EDIT Out of 61,000 so don't get too excited!

    Yes 144 votes
    No 165 votes

    Talking of early days.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,128
    edited December 2016
    Barnesian said:

    Yes 45.5
    No 54.5

    10 sections counted

    EDIT Out of 61,000 so don't get too excited!

    The interesting question is whether or not Renzi resigns at his news conference due in 40 minutes our time
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    "No" is up 19 to 11 in Trieste proper.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    "No" is up 19 to 11 in Trieste proper.

    Time for some election comparisons:

    Orange is the PD.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/82/Elezioni_Camera_2013_Comuni_Partiti.png
  • Next thread sorted. It'll be based on this

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/805535957722218496
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Having said that, NR's very good at two of their tasks: maintenance and renewal. Where they're failing massively is in the third, enhancements.

    You're right, but I don't see any evidence that TOCs (or TOC-led partnerships) will be better - quite the opposite.

    Chiltern Railways is generally viewed as the model franchised TOC. It's owned by Deutsche Bahn, who are hardly under-resourced and have greater-than-average infrastructure expertise.

    Despite this, DfT forcibly took control of the Evergreen 3 enhancements away from Chiltern in 2011 for severe underperformance, and gave them to Network Rail instead.

    "Network Rail expressed concern about the quality of designs it had received from Chiltern Railways for approval. It told Chiltern that the designs were “increasing the workload of Network Rail engineers” and “creating significant amounts of rework and re-review that otherwise would not occur”."

    (https://www.newcivilengineer.com/network-rail-gets-chiltern-work/8612322.article)

    Now Grayling is trying to go back to this. They never learn.
    I'm not defending these changes; I'm dubious about them. However I'll wait to see what's said when it's announced.
    FInd out what Christian Wolmar thinks, and pick the opposite. Never known a pundit to be so consistently wrong on his specialist subject.
    Hmmm. I must admit to quite liking Wolmar. I don't agree with him on many things (e.g. politics, Corbyn, or his dislike of HS2), but he's more knowledgeable than most journalists about railways.

    However that's one thing that should be remembered: he's a journalist. He's not a railwayman, and he sometimes pretends to be one (or at least that's the way he comes across). His expertise is narrow - I much prefer Roger Ford (who was a railwayman, at least in a way). But in general Wolmar's enthusiasm is a positive for the railways in this country.
    I once had to brief Mr Wolmar on Crossrail 2 survey results and options. He wasn't clued up on that. Good speaker though and good Chairman.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Barnesian said:

    Yes 45.5
    No 54.5

    10 sections counted

    EDIT Out of 61,000 so don't get too excited!

    The interesting question is whether or not Renzi resigns at his news conference due in 40 minutes our time
    https://twitter.com/riotta/status/805537992404271104
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Errm Should "No" be ahead in Trieste proper and Rome ?
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Can we spend the £350 million a week on grammar lessons for Leavers instead?

    https://twitter.com/JustYAMuslim/status/804777415163645952

    £8.5 billion (2015, net figure) works out at £163 million a week.
    brilliant tweet
  • I am still rather confused how this vote in Italy is being tied into as the bbc just put it "anti-establisment" senitment in the way the election in Austria was.

    A "no" is a vote for the status quo is if anything pro establishment.

    Also a vote to make sure they don't accidentally give too much power to their silly populist minority in the event that they came up largest party.

    But populism vs establishment is the current media frame, and everything has to be somehow squeezed into that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    "Yes" very narrowly ahead in Vercelli, NW Italy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920

    I am still rather confused how this vote in Italy is being tied into as the bbc just put it "anti-establisment" senitment in the way the election in Austria was.

    A "no" is a vote for the status quo is if anything pro establishment.

    Also a vote to make sure they don't accidentally give too much power to their silly populist minority in the event that they came up largest party.

    But populism vs establishment is the current media frame, and everything has to be somehow squeezed into that.
    Exactly.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    I'm beginning to like The Donald. Not afraid to upset the old elite.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920

    Barnesian said:

    Yes 45.5
    No 54.5

    10 sections counted

    EDIT Out of 61,000 so don't get too excited!

    The interesting question is whether or not Renzi resigns at his news conference due in 40 minutes our time
    Remember: Renzi resigning is like Cameron resigning! New Italian elections, while possible, are unlikely.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Errm Should "No" be ahead in Trieste proper and Rome ?

    It should be closer to 50-50 in those areas given the election results from 2013.

    If this was a 50-50 race.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Trieste city.

    SI
    38,34%
    61,66%
    NO
    865 1.391

    Renzi's party is "normally" ahead there iirc.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920
    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
    Isn't this a vote for the status quo?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Is there a map of Italy which tracks the votes coming in for the various regions?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
    Isn't this a vote for the status quo?
    It is a vote to change the government without an election.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited December 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
    Isn't this a vote for the status quo?
    No because Renzi said he would resign if he lost. Renzi removed the status quo from being an option. Please do keep up.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Why is the Trieste vote important?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MP_SE said:

    Is there a map of Italy which tracks the votes coming in for the various regions?

    Yes there is:

    http://elezioni.interno.it/referendum/scrutini/20161204/FI01000000000.htm

    Just pick on the regions on the Italian map.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920
    Speedy said:

    I am still rather confused how this vote in Italy is being tied into as the bbc just put it "anti-establisment" senitment in the way the election in Austria was.

    A "no" is a vote for the status quo is if anything pro establishment.

    A NO is perceived as a weapon to overthrow a non-democratically elected PM.

    Don't forget Italy hasn't got a democratically elected PM since 2011.
    The DP won the 2013 election: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_general_election,_2013
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
    Isn't this a vote for the status quo?

    Brexit was a vote for the status quo - i.e. don't let Britain be subsumed by the EU. Keep it as a separate country.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    Pauly said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
    Isn't this a vote for the status quo?
    No because Renzi said he would resign if he lost. Renzi removed the status quo from being an option. Please do keep up.
    If Renzi is like Cameron, that means he's going nowhere.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    edited December 2016
    MikeK said:

    Why is the Trieste vote important?

    A couple of thousand votes are in, so the sample should be robust.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_general_election,_2013

    It is a "DP" island in the wider region of 5 star so should at least be 50-50. And urban.

    If Renzo isn't winning here it is bleak for him I think.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920
    Pauly said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
    Isn't this a vote for the status quo?
    No because Renzi said he would resign if he lost. Renzi removed the status quo from being an option. Please do keep up.
    Yeah, but The Economist recommended voting No. If that isn't the voice of the establishment, what is?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeK said:

    Why is the Trieste vote important?

    Not really important, just the first region with major results.

    However if it was a 50-50 race it should have been 50-50.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
    Isn't this a vote for the status quo?
    It is a vote to change the government without an election.
    It's a vote against constitutional change, that Renzi stupidly made a confidence vote.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    rcs1000 said:

    Pauly said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
    Isn't this a vote for the status quo?
    No because Renzi said he would resign if he lost. Renzi removed the status quo from being an option. Please do keep up.
    Yeah, but The Economist recommended voting No. If that isn't the voice of the establishment, what is?
    It many be many things but it's not the Italian establishment.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920

    Regardless of any political consequences this is the right result.

    Of course: the changes involved giving far too much power to the executive.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited December 2016
    The "establishment" are the existing governors rather than the existing rules in my view.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
    Isn't this a vote for the status quo?
    It is a vote to change the government without an election.
    It's a vote against LEAVING, that Cameron stupidly made a confidence vote.
    :innocent:

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016
    I'm Calling it.
    NO has won.

    The city of Florence, Renzi's only power base in the country (the only elected office he ever held, was mayor there) is only 52-48 YES.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    No @ 71% in Napoli.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2016
    Speedy said:

    I'm Calling it.
    NO has won.

    The city of Florence, Renzi's only power base in the country (the only elected office he ever held, was mayor there) is only 52-48 YES.

    It's over.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Yes narrowly ahead in erm

    Tuscany.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,146

    Barnesian said:

    Yes 45.5
    No 54.5

    10 sections counted

    EDIT Out of 61,000 so don't get too excited!

    The interesting question is whether or not Renzi resigns at his news conference due in 40 minutes our time
    This question comes from sheer ignorance.

    If he wasn't elected, why would he resign?

    (Good evening, everyone)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
    Isn't this a vote for the status quo?

    Brexit was a vote for the status quo - i.e. don't let Britain be subsumed by the EU. Keep it as a separate country.

    hmmm???????????????????????????????/
  • Pulpstar said:

    Yes narrowly ahead in erm

    Tuscany.

    Did Polly T get a vote? :lol:
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Pulpstar said:

    Yes narrowly ahead in erm

    Tuscany.

    Did Polly T get a vote? :lol:
    and tyson.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    I'm Calling it.
    NO has won.

    The city of Florence, Renzi's only power base in the country (the only elected office he ever held, was mayor there) is only 52-48 YES.

    It's over.
    He may win Tuscany on the back of Florence but it will be very close there, it's 51.6-48.4 at present.
  • Having said that, NR's very good at two of their tasks: maintenance and renewal. Where they're failing massively is in the third, enhancements.

    You're right, but I don't see any evidence that TOCs (or TOC-led partnerships) will be better - quite the opposite.

    Chiltern Railways is generally viewed as the model franchised TOC. It's owned by Deutsche Bahn, who are hardly under-resourced and have greater-than-average infrastructure expertise.

    Despite this, DfT forcibly took control of the Evergreen 3 enhancements away from Chiltern in 2011 for severe underperformance, and gave them to Network Rail instead.

    "Network Rail expressed concern about the quality of designs it had received from Chiltern Railways for approval. It told Chiltern that the designs were “increasing the workload of Network Rail engineers” and “creating significant amounts of rework and re-review that otherwise would not occur”."

    (https://www.newcivilengineer.com/network-rail-gets-chiltern-work/8612322.article)

    Now Grayling is trying to go back to this. They never learn.
    I'm not defending these changes; I'm dubious about them. However I'll wait to see what's said when it's announced.
    FInd out what Christian Wolmar thinks, and pick the opposite. Never known a pundit to be so consistently wrong on his specialist subject.
    Hmmm. I must admit to quite liking Wolmar. I don't agree with him on many things (e.g. politics, Corbyn, or his dislike of HS2), but he's more knowledgeable than most journalists about railways.

    However that's one thing that should be remembered: he's a journalist. He's not a railwayman, and he sometimes pretends to be one (or at least that's the way he comes across). His expertise is narrow - I much prefer Roger Ford (who was a railwayman, at least in a way). But in general Wolmar's enthusiasm is a positive for the railways in this country.
    What I remember is lots of his appearances after major events and his opinions & conclusions being very plausible but almost always completely wrong.

    His regular tv appearances were always the cause of much mirth on uk.railway & uk.transport.london (where a younger sunil was "sunil on the train")
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Doesn't matter what the question is, people like to answer No/Out.

    I think Hofer's defeat spooked the market a little, nice to be able to get 1.44 !
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,806

    Pulpstar said:

    Yes narrowly ahead in erm

    Tuscany.

    Did Polly T get a vote? :lol:
    Or Tony B?
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
    Isn't this a vote for the status quo?

    Brexit was a vote for the status quo - i.e. don't let Britain be subsumed by the EU. Keep it as a separate country.

    hmmm???????????????????????????????/
    Are you denying their federal ambitions? It has a parliament, electorate, president, civil service, flag, anthem, currency, central bank, tariff schedule, common foreign policy, banking union, energy union, etc. etc. Soon a defence union if they don't get stopped.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2016
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    I'm Calling it.
    NO has won.

    The city of Florence, Renzi's only power base in the country (the only elected office he ever held, was mayor there) is only 52-48 YES.

    It's over.
    He may win Tuscany on the back of Florence but it will be very close there, it's 51.6-48.4 at present.
    It's still early days but he's losing pretty much the rest of Central and the Northwest. There isn't any way back from that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,834
    edited December 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
    Isn't this a vote for the status quo?
    Brexit was a vote for the status quo - i.e. don't let Britain be subsumed by the EU. Keep it as a separate country.

    I think it would be hard to simultaneously claim it was a reaction against elites, against the usual way things were being done, and also a vote for the status quo.

    The status quo was accepting the path we were on. Brexit was a vote to take a different path.

    But I suspect this is an even stupider semantic argument on Brexit than the usual ones, so I'll not contest any retort.
  • nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Yes narrowly ahead in erm

    Tuscany.

    Did Polly T get a vote? :lol:
    and tyson.
    O yes, where is he tonight?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,806
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks all.

    So essentially is more trouble for Juncker, Tusk and all the rest of the eurocrats? ;)

    Yes it is.

    Renzi was essentially appointed PM of Italy by Merkel.

    The Liberal-European fight back narrative lasted less than 100 hours from Richmond Park till Italy.
    Isn't this a vote for the status quo?

    Brexit was a vote for the status quo - i.e. don't let Britain be subsumed by the EU. Keep it as a separate country.

    I think it would be hard to simultaneously claim it was a reaction against elites, against the usual way things were being done, and also a vote for the status quo.
    It was a stop the world I want to get off version of status quo.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    More fake news on the Sky paper review. Daily Mirror journalist claiming the FPO are in the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy political group along with UKIP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    I'm Calling it.
    NO has won.

    The city of Florence, Renzi's only power base in the country (the only elected office he ever held, was mayor there) is only 52-48 YES.

    It's over.
    He may win Tuscany on the back of Florence but it will be very close there, it's 51.6-48.4 at present.
    It's still early days but he's losing pretty much the rest of Central and the Northwest. There isn't any way back from that.
    This is where the favourite is far far more likely than say the Bournemouth result.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016
    By the way, this is the first time the betting markets and the polls have got something right in ages.

    Although they still underestimated the final victor.

    But the anecdotal evidence and turnout were saying the same thing as the polls this time.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    Is there a map of Italy which tracks the votes coming in for the various regions?

    Yes there is:

    http://elezioni.interno.it/referendum/scrutini/20161204/FI01000000000.htm

    Just pick on the regions on the Italian map.
    Thanks. Much appreciated.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    It's looking like a comprehensive defeat & he'll resign.

    Apart from the German speaking Trentino Alto Adige and possibly Tuscany, he has lost everywhere.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Can we spend the £350 million a week on grammar lessons for Leavers instead?

    https://twitter.com/JustYAMuslim/status/804777415163645952

    Yes, they're called grammar schools.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Perhaps Renzi will play the overture to Rienzi as announces that despite all he's staying on, or Merkel won't tell him bed-time stories. ;D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Would a reasonable analogy for this referendum be if the Labour government had called a referendum on the HoL Act 1999?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    Next thread sorted. It'll be based on this

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/805535957722218496

    In which case we might have not had him blocking an earlier vote on Brexit....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2016
    I've always thought that German and Austria would react differently to Trump and Brexit compared to everywhere else. They'll probably move to the internationalist left, whereas everywhere else will more to the populist right. Good news for Merkel if so.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Doesn't matter what the question is, people like to answer No/Out.

    I think Hofer's defeat spooked the market a little, nice to be able to get 1.44 !

    They should add an extra option saying BAH FUCK EVERYTHING so people can vent without affecting the result.
  • AndyJS said:

    Can we spend the £350 million a week on grammar lessons for Leavers instead?

    https://twitter.com/JustYAMuslim/status/804777415163645952

    Yes, they're called grammar schools.
    Nah, grammar schools shaft the poor.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    It's looking like a comprehensive defeat & he'll resign.

    Apart from the German speaking Trentino Alto Adige and possibly Tuscany, he has lost everywhere.

    Early results in Trentino too, it was supposed to be a good "No" region...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    MP_SE said:

    More fake news on the Sky paper review. Daily Mirror journalist claiming the FPO are in the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy political group along with UKIP.

    It's wrong but irrelevant. Would 'UKIP affiliated party wins Italian referendum' be a better story?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    Would a reasonable analogy for this referendum be if the Labour government had called a referendum on the HoL Act 1999?

    I think the analogy is if Blair had called for a referendum on X in 2004 and promised to resign if he lost.

    It wouldn't have mattered what he proposed, people would have voted against him to get rid of him.
  • Looking like a blowout now - the live count with 3646 stations counted out of 61K (1.517m votes counted) is 59.78% No.

    Yes may win Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna and Trentino-Alto Adige, but that will be it.

    So we await Renzi's expected resignation and then see what happens next - another PD PM, or a technocrat, or early elections?

    Italy definitely one to keep an eye on now.

    Links:

    http://elezioni.interno.it/referendum/scrutini/20161204/FI01000000000.htm

    https://www.firstonetv.eu/en/stream/it/31

    http://www.freeintertv.com/view/id-1711
  • AnneJGP said:

    Barnesian said:

    Yes 45.5
    No 54.5

    10 sections counted

    EDIT Out of 61,000 so don't get too excited!

    The interesting question is whether or not Renzi resigns at his news conference due in 40 minutes our time
    This question comes from sheer ignorance.

    If he wasn't elected, why would he resign?

    (Good evening, everyone)
    His opponents are asking for his resignation - are you saying they are ignorant
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    AnneJGP said:

    Barnesian said:

    Yes 45.5
    No 54.5

    10 sections counted

    EDIT Out of 61,000 so don't get too excited!

    The interesting question is whether or not Renzi resigns at his news conference due in 40 minutes our time
    This question comes from sheer ignorance.

    If he wasn't elected, why would he resign?

    (Good evening, everyone)
    His opponents are asking for his resignation - are you saying they are ignorant
    With that logic, May would never resign since she was never elected ;)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016
    AndyJS said:

    I've always thought that German and Austria would react differently to Trump and Brexit compared to everywhere else. They'll probably move to the internationalist left, whereas everywhere else will more to the populist right. Good news for Merkel.

    The populist right is still way up even there, but the electoral system puts a lid until the populists breach 50% in a second round or in PR (in Italy the Populists have breached that in the opinion polls).
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    AndyJS said:

    Can we spend the £350 million a week on grammar lessons for Leavers instead?

    https://twitter.com/JustYAMuslim/status/804777415163645952

    Yes, they're called grammar schools.
    Nah, grammar schools shaft the poor.
    hmmm - yet they didn't shaft me - or others in my year - how to explain that?.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Saw Renzi vote today. His wife looked like a younger Maureen Lipman!
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    RobD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Barnesian said:

    Yes 45.5
    No 54.5

    10 sections counted

    EDIT Out of 61,000 so don't get too excited!

    The interesting question is whether or not Renzi resigns at his news conference due in 40 minutes our time
    This question comes from sheer ignorance.

    If he wasn't elected, why would he resign?

    (Good evening, everyone)
    His opponents are asking for his resignation - are you saying they are ignorant
    With that logic, May would never resign since she was never elected ;)
    politics is never logical. It's a dog eat dog world.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Looking like a blowout now - the live count with 3646 stations counted out of 61K (1.517m votes counted) is 59.78% No.

    Yes may win Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna and Trentino-Alto Adige, but that will be it.

    So we await Renzi's expected resignation and then see what happens next - another PD PM, or a technocrat, or early elections?

    Italy definitely one to keep an eye on now.

    Links:

    http://elezioni.interno.it/referendum/scrutini/20161204/FI01000000000.htm

    https://www.firstonetv.eu/en/stream/it/31

    http://www.freeintertv.com/view/id-1711

    You can't really blame the Italians for being grumpy when living standards have barely risen for 15 years.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/4028041-italy-caught-rock-hard-spot
  • Floater said:

    AndyJS said:

    Can we spend the £350 million a week on grammar lessons for Leavers instead?

    https://twitter.com/JustYAMuslim/status/804777415163645952

    Yes, they're called grammar schools.
    Nah, grammar schools shaft the poor.
    hmmm - yet they didn't shaft me - or others in my year - how to explain that?.
    But what about the kids that don't make it into grammar schools? What about them?
  • Having said that, NR's very good at two of their tasks: maintenance and renewal. Where they're failing massively is in the third, enhancements.

    You're right, but I don't see any evidence that TOCs (or TOC-led partnerships) will be better - quite the opposite.

    Chiltern Railways is generally viewed as the model franchised TOC. It's owned by Deutsche Bahn, who are hardly under-resourced and have greater-than-average infrastructure expertise.

    Despite this, DfT forcibly took control of the Evergreen 3 enhancements away from Chiltern in 2011 for severe underperformance, and gave them to Network Rail instead.

    "Network Rail expressed concern about the quality of designs it had received from Chiltern Railways for approval. It told Chiltern that the designs were “increasing the workload of Network Rail engineers” and “creating significant amounts of rework and re-review that otherwise would not occur”."

    (https://www.newcivilengineer.com/network-rail-gets-chiltern-work/8612322.article)

    Now Grayling is trying to go back to this. They never learn.
    I'm not defending these changes; I'm dubious about them. However I'll wait to see what's said when it's announced.
    FInd out what Christian Wolmar thinks, and pick the opposite. Never known a pundit to be so consistently wrong on his specialist subject.
    Hmmm. I must admit to quite liking Wolmar. I don't agree with him on many things (e.g. politics, Corbyn, or his dislike of HS2), but he's more knowledgeable than most journalists about railways.

    However that's one thing that should be remembered: he's a journalist. He's not a railwayman, and he sometimes pretends to be one (or at least that's the way he comes across). His expertise is narrow - I much prefer Roger Ford (who was a railwayman, at least in a way). But in general Wolmar's enthusiasm is a positive for the railways in this country.
    What I remember is lots of his appearances after major events and his opinions & conclusions being very plausible but almost always completely wrong.

    His regular tv appearances were always the cause of much mirth on uk.railway & uk.transport.london (where a younger sunil was "sunil on the train")
    Nah, I just called myself "Sunil" back in those days :)

    Wolmar lost Labour their deposit on Thursday :lol:
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AnneJGP said:

    Barnesian said:

    Yes 45.5
    No 54.5

    10 sections counted

    EDIT Out of 61,000 so don't get too excited!

    The interesting question is whether or not Renzi resigns at his news conference due in 40 minutes our time
    This question comes from sheer ignorance.

    If he wasn't elected, why would he resign?

    (Good evening, everyone)
    Because the party bosses would be spooked, they would decide to replace him as easy as the last guy.
  • AndyJS said:

    Can we spend the £350 million a week on grammar lessons for Leavers instead?

    https://twitter.com/JustYAMuslim/status/804777415163645952

    Yes, they're called grammar schools.
    Nah, grammar schools shaft the poor.
    Not if there are enough of them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    Dixie said:

    Saw Renzi vote today. His wife looked like a younger Maureen Lipman!

    "You're not a failure Matteo - you've got an ology!"
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Seems like it may be an even heavier defeat for Renzi than exit polls suggest. This feels much more AV referendum (poor reforms rejected with general kick the incumbent) than an alt-right / make italy grande again wave.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Has anyone tried to get through to the Amazon web site in the last 24 hours?

    I have tried, and it seems that the site is under some form of attack.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    But what about the kids that don't make it into public schools? What about them?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    MikeK said:

    Has anyone tried to get through to the Amazon web site in the last 24 hours?

    I have tried, and it seems that the site is under some form of attack.

    Amazon.co.uk works for me.
  • Floater said:

    AndyJS said:

    Can we spend the £350 million a week on grammar lessons for Leavers instead?

    https://twitter.com/JustYAMuslim/status/804777415163645952

    Yes, they're called grammar schools.
    Nah, grammar schools shaft the poor.
    hmmm - yet they didn't shaft me - or others in my year - how to explain that?.
    But what about the kids that don't make it into grammar schools? What about them?
    What about the kids that don't make it into public school like you did? At least Grammar Schools are free at the point of use!
  • Dixie said:

    Saw Renzi vote today. His wife looked like a younger Maureen Lipman!

    "You're not a failure Matteo - you've got an ology!"
    Technocratology!
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Dixie said:

    Saw Renzi vote today. His wife looked like a younger Maureen Lipman!

    "You're not a failure Matteo - you've got an ology!"
    very good
  • Sky - Upto 60% No
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    RobD said:

    MikeK said:

    Has anyone tried to get through to the Amazon web site in the last 24 hours?

    I have tried, and it seems that the site is under some form of attack.

    Amazon.co.uk works for me.
    Amazon works OK for me as well.
This discussion has been closed.