I thought the North-East / Venice region was mostly Northern League? Who are No supporters. Then the North WEst is the Yes stronghold? So on that it's probably too close to call?
Which side is favourite on Betfair? I can't access the site at the moment.
NO in Italy is the favourite. It's at 1.46 - 1.47. YES is at 3.1 - 3.15.
When are we likely to get first "indicators". Lots of people taking about turnout but not sure who low or high turnout favours
Twitter reckons High Turnout favours NO. Not sure why, caveat emptor, etc
The polls have shown 10+% leads for No for a week or more. Everyone I know, including the Left wing DP supporters, are voting No.
Tomorrow Renzi will resign. By this time next week we'll have a new Italian government.
And almost nothing will have changed. This is not a referendum on pro-EU vs anti-EU, or anything like that. Is is a referendum on whether to reform the Italian houses of parliament to make them less liable to gridlock and to increase the role of the executive.
I think a fair number of Grillo supporters will vote Yes, and a lot of Renzi supporters No. I don't think any of us should read too much into this vote.
If NO wins it does, however, mean Italy is basically unreformable and thus makes Quitaly (copyright: BBC) from the euro much more likely in the medium term.
So the vote is not entirely trivial
I'm glad Quitaly is catching on - endless -exit spin-offs was getting irritating (Scexit, Frexit, Truxit etc).
It does seem like the Italian vote has been bunged in with the rest of the populist movement tests for the sake of a good story, when the actual vote has little to do with it - would be like attributing the AV referendum loss to a populist backlash.
Where the euro is concerned, Italy leaving is Fuxit surely?
Who said Italy was leaving ?
I believe Beppe Grillo said as much. When my family and I went to Tuscany, Umbria and Rome last July it was obvious that the population are angry and there seems to be a lot of poverty.
Several commented that they wished that Italy had the courage to leave the EU and expressed admiration for Brexit. As we were leaving the news bulletins showed the EU flag removed from the Genoa beaches and replaced with the Union Jack alongside their own. I think Beppe Grillo comes from the Genoa area
Not allowed to say the truth out loud even though it's harsh?
When Trotskyist activists threatened to rape female Tory activists, I condemned them.
When a politician suggests more rape and murder is needed for his ally's political career to flourish, and indeed says it in such a way that he appears to be hoping for it, I condemn that too. If his ally can only win on those terms, his political career is worthless anyway.
I am neither a woman, nor left-wing. There are some lines that should not be crossed on the grounds of ordinary human decency.
Having said that, NR's very good at two of their tasks: maintenance and renewal. Where they're failing massively is in the third, enhancements.
I'm not sure that's the case on South East Route (formally Kent and Sussex). Most of the focus is on the GTR industrial relations issue, but the network is creaking. The plan to run 24 trains per hour through the Thameslink core is, put it politely, optimistic.
Yes, the London Bridge project's been a bit chaotic, to say the least. But in many ways that's an enhancement project, not a maintenance or renewals one.
Having said that, NR's very good at two of their tasks: maintenance and renewal. Where they're failing massively is in the third, enhancements.
I'm not sure that's the case on South East Route (formally Kent and Sussex). Most of the focus is on the GTR industrial relations issue, but the network is creaking. The plan to run 24 trains per hour through the Thameslink core is, put it politely, optimistic.
Yes, the London Bridge project's been a bit chaotic, to say the least. But in many ways that's an enhancement project, not a maintenance or renewals one.
I'm not talking about London Bridge. If that was completed tomorrow, the railway would still be a mess. The condition of the track is appalling and the number of TSRs on the Brighton Mainline has gone through the roof. They're planning to run a metro service through the core, with a wide variety of destinations. If the network isn't sorted out by 2018 it will be a disaster.
Not allowed to say the truth out loud even though it's harsh?
When Trotskyist activists threatened to rape female Tory activists, I condemned them.
When a politician suggests more rape and murder is needed for his ally's political career to flourish, and indeed says it in such a way that he appears to be hoping for it, I condemn that too. If his ally can only win on those terms, his political career is worthless anyway.
I am neither a woman, nor left-wing. There are some lines that should not be crossed on the grounds of ordinary human decency.
Not sure how the Trotskyist rape threats have appeared here as equivalent or even similar.
Banks didn't tweet what you seem to think he did. He is saying that more of what is inevitably coming will change peoples attitudes further down the line. And I agree that what has started - and will only accelerate - will change the face of politics and society over the next decade.
You can create false equivalences to smear the messenger if you wish but ultimately, even using phrasing you interpret a different way to me, he is right.
Not sure how the Trotskyist rape threats have appeared here as equivalent or even similar.
Banks didn't tweet what you seem to think he did. He is saying that more of what is inevitably coming will change peoples attitudes further down the line. And I agree that what has started - and will only accelerate - will change the face of politics and society over the next decade.
You can create false equivalences to smear the messenger if you wish but ultimately, even using phrasing you interpret a different way to me, he is right.
Well if you don't know that, I think you need to mull over what he's actually just said.
Erm, I wouldn't say so no. The provinces with the highest turnout are in the Northeast, these are also the highest "No" provinces. South Italy is low, though some parts not as low as usual, but then there are fewer votes there. The problem is Central and Northwest may not be doing enough to help Renzi overcome the Northeast.
Not sure how the Trotskyist rape threats have appeared here as equivalent or even similar.
Banks didn't tweet what you seem to think he did. He is saying that more of what is inevitably coming will change peoples attitudes further down the line. And I agree that what has started - and will only accelerate - will change the face of politics and society over the next decade.
You can create false equivalences to smear the messenger if you wish but ultimately, even using phrasing you interpret a different way to me, he is right.
Well if you don't know that, I think you need to mull over what he's actually just said.
By the way, don't you mean 'far-right'?
No I don't mean that. We appear to have two different interpretations of the same text. I can't for the life of me read it your way and you don't see it the way I think it's intended. So let's not bore the rest of PB with something we're not going to agree on. Pax.
Not allowed to say the truth out loud even though it's harsh?
When Trotskyist activists threatened to rape female Tory activists, I condemned them.
When a politician suggests more rape and murder is needed for his ally's political career to flourish, and indeed says it in such a way that he appears to be hoping for it, I condemn that too. If his ally can only win on those terms, his political career is worthless anyway.
I am neither a woman, nor left-wing. There are some lines that should not be crossed on the grounds of ordinary human decency.
Apart from that, Banks is saying the Austrian voters got it wrong. Jeez. The voters are never wrong. They were right about Brexit, they were right about Trump, they were right in Austria, they will be right whichever way they vote in Italy. They'll be right to vote May or Corbyn in the next election. The voters are always right. That's what democracy is all about.
Pretty useless, even if they win the next election by a landslide the President will refuse to swear them in office.
It would become unworkable but until they actually win the Presidency they won't be allowed to form the government even if they have a majority in parliament.
Having said that, NR's very good at two of their tasks: maintenance and renewal. Where they're failing massively is in the third, enhancements.
You're right, but I don't see any evidence that TOCs (or TOC-led partnerships) will be better - quite the opposite.
Chiltern Railways is generally viewed as the model franchised TOC. It's owned by Deutsche Bahn, who are hardly under-resourced and have greater-than-average infrastructure expertise.
Despite this, DfT forcibly took control of the Evergreen 3 enhancements away from Chiltern in 2011 for severe underperformance, and gave them to Network Rail instead.
"Network Rail expressed concern about the quality of designs it had received from Chiltern Railways for approval. It told Chiltern that the designs were “increasing the workload of Network Rail engineers” and “creating significant amounts of rework and re-review that otherwise would not occur”."
It would have been somewhat larger if I hadn't made the mistake of trusting Bob Smithson instead of my own judgement
And another Betfair prediction failure - someone must be losing a fortune on that site.
Surely they can't have got the Italian referendum wrong as well ?
Which side is favourite on Betfair? I can't access the site at the moment.
NO in Italy is the favourite. It's at 1.46 - 1.47. YES is at 3.1 - 3.15.
When are we likely to get first "indicators". Lots of people taking about turnout but not sure who low or high turnout favours
Twitter reckons High Turnout favours NO. Not sure why, caveat emptor, etc
The polls have shown 10+% leads for No for a week or more. Everyone I know, including the Left wing DP supporters, are voting No.
Tomorrow Renzi will resign. By this time next week we'll have a new Italian government.
And almost nothing will have changed. This is not a referendum on pro-EU vs anti-EU, or anything like that. Is is a referendum on whether to reform the Italian houses of parliament to make them less liable to gridlock and to increase the role of the executive.
I think a fair number of Grillo supporters will vote Yes, and a lot of Renzi supporters No. I don't think any of us should read too much into this vote.
If NO wins it does, however, mean Italy is basically unreformable and thus makes Quitaly (copyright: BBC) from the euro much more likely in the medium term.
So the vote is not entirely trivial
I'm glad Quitaly is catching on - endless -exit spin-offs was getting irritating (Scexit, Frexit, Truxit etc).
It does seem like the Italian vote has been bunged in with the rest of the populist movement tests for the sake of a good story, when the actual vote has little to do with it - would be like attributing the AV referendum loss to a populist backlash.
EU revoir is better than Frexit.
I think I saw Fruck Off somewhere as an alternative too.
Departugal was the one I liked. With Chezch Out pretty good.
Pretty useless, even if they win the next election by a landslide the President will refuse to swear them in office.
It would become unworkable but until they actually win the Presidency they won't be allowed to form the government even if they have a majority in parliament.
Pretty useless, even if they win the next election by a landslide the President will refuse to swear them in office.
It would become unworkable but until they actually win the Presidency they won't be allowed to form the government even if they have a majority in parliament.
Strange democracy
Speedy is wrong on this one. If the FPO assembles a coalition, they will be leading the next government. The issue is that 35%, under the Austrian PR system, may not be enough.
That's why I thought Hofer had won: the FPO has been gaining in the polls for months.
Looking at their last election, there appear to have been three separate parties all in the same broad eurosceptic/populist/hard right grouping. They seem to have consolidated into one.
It is good to see so many PBers happy in the victory of a greeny - red lefty. Now you've arrived, please stay.
You do have to wonder if Trump winning the Presidential election has had a sobering attitude in Europe and that the move to the far right may be checked
I didn't see I a lot of left wing governments beating right wing ones in Europe in the 1980's as a reaction to Reagan in america.
In places where the economy was bad governments changed, as they always do.
Pretty useless, even if they win the next election by a landslide the President will refuse to swear them in office.
It would become unworkable but until they actually win the Presidency they won't be allowed to form the government even if they have a majority in parliament.
Strange democracy
Speedy is wrong on this one. If the FPO assembles a coalition, they will be leading the next government. The issue is that 35%, under the Austrian PR system, may not be enough.
There are talks between the FPO the OVP and strangely the SPO.
However the new austrian president has vowed to refuse to swear them in, and he has the power (the only real power that he has) on paper by the constitution to do so.
It would have been somewhat larger if I hadn't made the mistake of trusting Bob Smithson instead of my own judgement
And another Betfair prediction failure - someone must be losing a fortune on that site.
Surely they can't have got the Italian referendum wrong as well ?
Which side is favourite on Betfair? I can't access the site at the moment.
NO in Italy is the favourite. It's at 1.46 - 1.47. YES is at 3.1 - 3.15.
When are we likely to get first "indicators". Lots of people taking about turnout but not sure who low or high turnout favours
Twitter reckons High Turnout favours NO. Not sure why, caveat emptor, etc
The polls have shown 10+% leads for No for a week or more. Everyone I know, including the Left wing DP supporters, are voting No.
Tomorrow Renzi will resign. By this time next week we'll have a new Italian government.
And almost nothing will have changed. This is not a referendum on pro-EU vs anti-EU, or anything like that. Is is a referendum on whether to reform the Italian houses of parliament to make them less liable to gridlock and to increase the role of the executive.
I think a fair number of Grillo supporters will vote Yes, and a lot of Renzi supporters No. I don't think any of us should read too much into this vote.
If NO wins it does, however, mean Italy is basically unreformable and thus makes Quitaly (copyright: BBC) from the euro much more likely in the medium term.
So the vote is not entirely trivial
I'm glad Quitaly is catching on - endless -exit spin-offs was getting irritating (Scexit, Frexit, Truxit etc).
It does seem like the Italian vote has been bunged in with the rest of the populist movement tests for the sake of a good story, when the actual vote has little to do with it - would be like attributing the AV referendum loss to a populist backlash.
EU revoir is better than Frexit.
I think I saw Fruck Off somewhere as an alternative too.
Departugal was the one I liked. With Chezch Out pretty good.
No surprise really there. The Daily Mail always had a soft spot for Adolf Hitler.
Hofer is not a nazi. The fact he did so well is a triumph for people overcoming their disabilities. Hitler wouldn't have liked people to have the freedom to carry a glock to defend themselves in the way Hofer does himself.
Sky saying turnout over 60% with high turnout from the North. Renzi to address the Nation at 12 midnight local time, 11.00pm UK time
If Renzi is to address the nation so early then he probably knows he lost.
will he resign? I just heard on France 24 that the current Italian constitution was set up after fascism. In which case why give Renzi so much power, if it can happen once it can happen again.
Well if turnout does go well over 60% he probably has lost.
He's *probably* lost anyway. The polls suggested he has lost, he was campaigning against the status quo, and there were diametrically opposite views both backing No.
Well if turnout does go well over 60% he probably has lost.
He's *probably* lost anyway. The polls suggested he has lost, he was campaigning against the status quo, and there were diametrically opposite views both backing No.
I wouldn't base anything on the polls.
However if turnout is very high then it's probably an anti-Renzi wave.
The lessons of the last few years is that anecdotal evidence and turnout are more accurate than polls.
It is good to see so many PBers happy in the victory of a greeny - red lefty. Now you've arrived, please stay.
You do have to wonder if Trump winning the Presidential election has had a sobering attitude in Europe and that the move to the far right may be checked
Yes, I do wonder about this. Will be ineresting to see how it chnges votes in France.
It is good to see so many PBers happy in the victory of a greeny - red lefty. Now you've arrived, please stay.
You do have to wonder if Trump winning the Presidential election has had a sobering attitude in Europe and that the move to the far right may be checked
Yes, I do wonder about this. Will be ineresting to see how it chnges votes in France.
Well if exhibit A. was the primaries then it had zero effect in France, they voted for the most right wing candidate on offer.
No surprise really there. The Daily Mail always had a soft spot for Adolf Hitler.
Hofer is not a nazi. The fact he did so well is a triumph for people overcoming their disabilities. Hitler wouldn't have liked people to have the freedom to carry a glock to defend themselves in the way Hofer does himself.
It is good to see so many PBers happy in the victory of a greeny - red lefty. Now you've arrived, please stay.
You do have to wonder if Trump winning the Presidential election has had a sobering attitude in Europe and that the move to the far right may be checked
Yes, I do wonder about this. Will be ineresting to see how it chnges votes in France.
Well if exhibit A. was the primaries then it had zero effect in France, they voted for the most right wing candidate on offer.
It is good to see so many PBers happy in the victory of a greeny - red lefty. Now you've arrived, please stay.
You do have to wonder if Trump winning the Presidential election has had a sobering attitude in Europe and that the move to the far right may be checked
Yes, I do wonder about this. Will be ineresting to see how it chnges votes in France.
Well if exhibit A. was the primaries then it had zero effect in France, they voted for the most right wing candidate on offer.
Erm, Sarkozy was the most right wing candidate...
The differences of Sarkozy and Fillon is that Fillon is a bit more right wing on the economy, and that Fillon was not accused of corruption and of being an incompetent President.
Having said that, NR's very good at two of their tasks: maintenance and renewal. Where they're failing massively is in the third, enhancements.
I'm not sure that's the case on South East Route (formally Kent and Sussex). Most of the focus is on the GTR industrial relations issue, but the network is creaking. The plan to run 24 trains per hour through the Thameslink core is, put it politely, optimistic.
Fair enough; I have no knowledge of the state of maintenance and renewals on that line outside the big projects.
Having said that, NR's very good at two of their tasks: maintenance and renewal. Where they're failing massively is in the third, enhancements.
You're right, but I don't see any evidence that TOCs (or TOC-led partnerships) will be better - quite the opposite.
Chiltern Railways is generally viewed as the model franchised TOC. It's owned by Deutsche Bahn, who are hardly under-resourced and have greater-than-average infrastructure expertise.
Despite this, DfT forcibly took control of the Evergreen 3 enhancements away from Chiltern in 2011 for severe underperformance, and gave them to Network Rail instead.
"Network Rail expressed concern about the quality of designs it had received from Chiltern Railways for approval. It told Chiltern that the designs were “increasing the workload of Network Rail engineers” and “creating significant amounts of rework and re-review that otherwise would not occur”."
Does that map correspond to more affluent areas vs.Poorer areas ?
It mostly does.
I can't find a turnout map of the last election, since changes of turnout are the most significant, but overall the total turnout matches the last election.
It is good to see so many PBers happy in the victory of a greeny - red lefty. Now you've arrived, please stay.
You do have to wonder if Trump winning the Presidential election has had a sobering attitude in Europe and that the move to the far right may be checked
Yes, I do wonder about this. Will be ineresting to see how it chnges votes in France.
Well if exhibit A. was the primaries then it had zero effect in France, they voted for the most right wing candidate on offer.
Erm, Sarkozy was the most right wing candidate...
The differences of Sarkozy and Fillon is that Fillon is a bit more right wing on the economy, and that Fillon was not accused of corruption and of being an incompetent President.
Juppe is a liberal and an actual convict.
Not many real choices on offer.
Sarkozy used imperialistic language in the Primaries. In any case I don't know how much you can compare a Primary to the General but we shall see if it has an effect. My guess is it will depend on how many Islamist terror attacks from now till then.
Does that map correspond to more affluent areas vs.Poorer areas ?
In general yes; the Northeast is the most affluent, the Southwest least (both "No" areas as it happens but the Northeast is far more populous). The big exception there is Lazio which is wealthy and populous but turnout isn't great, this should be a more "Yes" area.
It is good to see so many PBers happy in the victory of a greeny - red lefty. Now you've arrived, please stay.
You do have to wonder if Trump winning the Presidential election has had a sobering attitude in Europe and that the move to the far right may be checked
Yes, I do wonder about this. Will be ineresting to see how it chnges votes in France.
Well if exhibit A. was the primaries then it had zero effect in France, they voted for the most right wing candidate on offer.
Erm, Sarkozy was the most right wing candidate...
The differences of Sarkozy and Fillon is that Fillon is a bit more right wing on the economy, and that Fillon was not accused of corruption and of being an incompetent President.
Juppe is a liberal and an actual convict.
Not many real choices on offer.
Sarkozy used imperialistic language in the Primaries. In any case I don't know how much you can compare a Primary to the General but we shall see if it has an effect. My guess is it will depend on how many Islamist terror attacks from now till then.
Sarkozy used the language of the far right.
In the end, Les Republicains and their allies chose a candidate bang in the middle of the party.
Not to be too morbid about it but terror attacks have not radically altered the polls.
Having said that, NR's very good at two of their tasks: maintenance and renewal. Where they're failing massively is in the third, enhancements.
You're right, but I don't see any evidence that TOCs (or TOC-led partnerships) will be better - quite the opposite.
Chiltern Railways is generally viewed as the model franchised TOC. It's owned by Deutsche Bahn, who are hardly under-resourced and have greater-than-average infrastructure expertise.
Despite this, DfT forcibly took control of the Evergreen 3 enhancements away from Chiltern in 2011 for severe underperformance, and gave them to Network Rail instead.
"Network Rail expressed concern about the quality of designs it had received from Chiltern Railways for approval. It told Chiltern that the designs were “increasing the workload of Network Rail engineers” and “creating significant amounts of rework and re-review that otherwise would not occur”."
It is good to see so many PBers happy in the victory of a greeny - red lefty. Now you've arrived, please stay.
You do have to wonder if Trump winning the Presidential election has had a sobering attitude in Europe and that the move to the far right may be checked
Yes, I do wonder about this. Will be ineresting to see how it chnges votes in France.
Well if exhibit A. was the primaries then it had zero effect in France, they voted for the most right wing candidate on offer.
Erm, Sarkozy was the most right wing candidate...
The differences of Sarkozy and Fillon is that Fillon is a bit more right wing on the economy, and that Fillon was not accused of corruption and of being an incompetent President.
Juppe is a liberal and an actual convict.
Not many real choices on offer.
Sarkozy used imperialistic language in the Primaries. In any case I don't know how much you can compare a Primary to the General but we shall see if it has an effect. My guess is it will depend on how many Islamist terror attacks from now till then.
Sarkozy used the language of the far right.
In the end, Les Republicains and their allies chose a candidate bang in the middle of the party.
Not to be too morbid about it but terror attacks have not radically altered the polls.
Actually they chose the only candidate out of the top 3 who wasn't a convicted fraudster or investigated for corruption.
Having said that, NR's very good at two of their tasks: maintenance and renewal. Where they're failing massively is in the third, enhancements.
You're right, but I don't see any evidence that TOCs (or TOC-led partnerships) will be better - quite the opposite.
Chiltern Railways is generally viewed as the model franchised TOC. It's owned by Deutsche Bahn, who are hardly under-resourced and have greater-than-average infrastructure expertise.
Despite this, DfT forcibly took control of the Evergreen 3 enhancements away from Chiltern in 2011 for severe underperformance, and gave them to Network Rail instead.
"Network Rail expressed concern about the quality of designs it had received from Chiltern Railways for approval. It told Chiltern that the designs were “increasing the workload of Network Rail engineers” and “creating significant amounts of rework and re-review that otherwise would not occur”."
It is good to see so many PBers happy in the victory of a greeny - red lefty. Now you've arrived, please stay.
You do have to wonder if Trump winning the Presidential election has had a sobering attitude in Europe and that the move to the far right may be checked
Yes, I do wonder about this. Will be ineresting to see how it chnges votes in France.
Well if exhibit A. was the primaries then it had zero effect in France, they voted for the most right wing candidate on offer.
Erm, Sarkozy was the most right wing candidate...
The differences of Sarkozy and Fillon is that Fillon is a bit more right wing on the economy, and that Fillon was not accused of corruption and of being an incompetent President.
Juppe is a liberal and an actual convict.
Not many real choices on offer.
Sarkozy used imperialistic language in the Primaries. In any case I don't know how much you can compare a Primary to the General but we shall see if it has an effect. My guess is it will depend on how many Islamist terror attacks from now till then.
Sarkozy used the language of the far right.
In the end, Les Republicains and their allies chose a candidate bang in the middle of the party.
Not to be too morbid about it but terror attacks have not radically altered the polls.
Actually they chose the only candidate out of the top 3 who wasn't a convicted fraudster or investigated for corruption.
You're right, they allowed Fillon to go forward without the usual requirement for office. Either be corrupt, or keep a few mistresses at the taxpayer's expense.
It is good to see so many PBers happy in the victory of a greeny - red lefty. Now you've arrived, please stay.
You do have to wonder if Trump winning the Presidential election has had a sobering attitude in Europe and that the move to the far right may be checked
Yes, I do wonder about this. Will be ineresting to see how it chnges votes in France.
Well if exhibit A. was the primaries then it had zero effect in France, they voted for the most right wing candidate on offer.
Erm, Sarkozy was the most right wing candidate...
Fillon is in many ways more socially and fiscally conservative compared to Sarkozy.
No surprise really there. The Daily Mail always had a soft spot for Adolf Hitler.
Hofer is not a nazi. The fact he did so well is a triumph for people overcoming their disabilities. Hitler wouldn't have liked people to have the freedom to carry a glock to defend themselves in the way Hofer does himself.
Hover is not a Nazi. The Daily Mail's attacks on the Supreme Court and obvious disappointment at the failure of forces that they think are pretty close to Nazi speaks volumes about Paul Facre though. No idea why Rothermere still humours a guy who is burning his business and trashing his image so comprehensively.
Sky saying turnout over 60% with high turnout from the North. Renzi to address the Nation at 12 midnight local time, 11.00pm UK time
If Renzi is to address the nation so early then he probably knows he lost.
Apparently the exit polls for the 2014 Euros put the PD on 34% vs the 41% it actually ended up with, so we probably shouldn't put too much trust on whatever numbers come out at 11pm...
Sky saying turnout over 60% with high turnout from the North. Renzi to address the Nation at 12 midnight local time, 11.00pm UK time
If Renzi is to address the nation so early then he probably knows he lost.
Apparently the exit polls for the 2014 Euros put the PD on 34% vs the 41% it actually ended up with, so we probably shouldn't put too much trust on whatever numbers come out at 11pm...
Due out in 10 minutes and Renzi to speak at 11.00 our time must indicate he knows the result either way
It is good to see so many PBers happy in the victory of a greeny - red lefty. Now you've arrived, please stay.
You do have to wonder if Trump winning the Presidential election has had a sobering attitude in Europe and that the move to the far right may be checked
Yes, I do wonder about this. Will be ineresting to see how it chnges votes in France.
Well if exhibit A. was the primaries then it had zero effect in France, they voted for the most right wing candidate on offer.
Erm, Sarkozy was the most right wing candidate...
Fillon is in many ways more socially and fiscally conservative compared to Sarkozy.
Sarkozy *tried* to speak the language of the far-right. He tried to win those votes.
The ony poll to put Fillon ahead in the first round, had the voters of the FN splitting 38 for Sarkozy 22 for Fillon.
Fillon is as close to the embodiment of the Gaullist right as was on offer.
Having said that, NR's very good at two of their tasks: maintenance and renewal. Where they're failing massively is in the third, enhancements.
You're right, but I don't see any evidence that TOCs (or TOC-led partnerships) will be better - quite the opposite.
Chiltern Railways is generally viewed as the model franchised TOC. It's owned by Deutsche Bahn, who are hardly under-resourced and have greater-than-average infrastructure expertise.
Despite this, DfT forcibly took control of the Evergreen 3 enhancements away from Chiltern in 2011 for severe underperformance, and gave them to Network Rail instead.
"Network Rail expressed concern about the quality of designs it had received from Chiltern Railways for approval. It told Chiltern that the designs were “increasing the workload of Network Rail engineers” and “creating significant amounts of rework and re-review that otherwise would not occur”."
Now Grayling is trying to go back to this. They never learn.
I'm not defending these changes; I'm dubious about them. However I'll wait to see what's said when it's announced.
FInd out what Christian Wolmar thinks, and pick the opposite. Never known a pundit to be so consistently wrong on his specialist subject.
Hmmm. I must admit to quite liking Wolmar. I don't agree with him on many things (e.g. politics, Corbyn, or his dislike of HS2), but he's more knowledgeable than most journalists about railways.
However that's one thing that should be remembered: he's a journalist. He's not a railwayman, and he sometimes pretends to be one (or at least that's the way he comes across). His expertise is narrow - I much prefer Roger Ford (who was a railwayman, at least in a way). But in general Wolmar's enthusiasm is a positive for the railways in this country.
It is good to see so many PBers happy in the victory of a greeny - red lefty. Now you've arrived, please stay.
You do have to wonder if Trump winning the Presidential election has had a sobering attitude in Europe and that the move to the far right may be checked
Yes, I do wonder about this. Will be ineresting to see how it chnges votes in France.
Well if exhibit A. was the primaries then it had zero effect in France, they voted for the most right wing candidate on offer.
Erm, Sarkozy was the most right wing candidate...
Fillon is in many ways more socially and fiscally conservative compared to Sarkozy.
Sarkozy *tried* to speak the language of the far-right. He tried to win those votes.
The ony poll to put Fillon ahead in the first round, had the voters of the FN splitting 38 for Sarkozy 22 for Fillon.
Fillon is as close to the embodiment of the Gaullist right as was on offer.
Fillon has also warned about radical Islam etc. It's just Sarko made some more incendiary comments that got the lefties in a tizz (like the double portion of fries etc) that made him public enemy number one in their eyes.
As for the FN, that probably had someting to do with the fact he was their best chance for Le Pen to win...
"Nearly two thirds of the electorate had voted in some parts of prosperous northern Italy but the turnout was much lower in the south -- a pattern which was seen as a potential boost to the premier's survival hopes." An hour ago.
"Nearly two thirds of the electorate had voted in some parts of prosperous northern Italy but the turnout was much lower in the south -- a pattern which was seen as a potential boost to the premier's survival hopes." An hour ago.
"Nearly two thirds of the electorate had voted in some parts of prosperous northern Italy but the turnout was much lower in the south -- a pattern which was seen as a potential boost to the premier's survival hopes." An hour ago.
"Nearly two thirds of the electorate had voted in some parts of prosperous northern Italy but the turnout was much lower in the south -- a pattern which was seen as a potential boost to the premier's survival hopes." An hour ago.
I don't understand the hype around this referendum. If Renzi loses and quits over it, doesn't his party just pick a new guy and carry on governing?
Renzi was Germany's man in Italy, his replacement will not be the same.
We have to think of this as kind of an attempt to restore democracy in Italy, since they hadn't got a democratically elected PM since 2011, Renzi is not even an MP.
I am still rather confused how this vote in Italy is being tied into as the bbc just put it "anti-establisment" senitment in the way the election in Austria was.
A "no" is a vote for the status quo is if anything pro establishment.
Comments
Which side is favourite on Betfair? I can't access the site at the moment.
NO in Italy is the favourite. It's at 1.46 - 1.47. YES is at 3.1 - 3.15.
When are we likely to get first "indicators". Lots of people taking about turnout but not sure who low or high turnout favours
Twitter reckons High Turnout favours NO. Not sure why, caveat emptor, etc
The polls have shown 10+% leads for No for a week or more. Everyone I know, including the Left wing DP supporters, are voting No.
Tomorrow Renzi will resign. By this time next week we'll have a new Italian government.
And almost nothing will have changed. This is not a referendum on pro-EU vs anti-EU, or anything like that. Is is a referendum on whether to reform the Italian houses of parliament to make them less liable to gridlock and to increase the role of the executive.
I think a fair number of Grillo supporters will vote Yes, and a lot of Renzi supporters No. I don't think any of us should read too much into this vote.
If NO wins it does, however, mean Italy is basically unreformable and thus makes Quitaly (copyright: BBC) from the euro much more likely in the medium term.
So the vote is not entirely trivial
I'm glad Quitaly is catching on - endless -exit spin-offs was getting irritating (Scexit, Frexit, Truxit etc).
It does seem like the Italian vote has been bunged in with the rest of the populist movement tests for the sake of a good story, when the actual vote has little to do with it - would be like attributing the AV referendum loss to a populist backlash.
Where the euro is concerned, Italy leaving is Fuxit surely?
Who said Italy was leaving ?
I believe Beppe Grillo said as much. When my family and I went to Tuscany, Umbria and Rome last July it was obvious that the population are angry and there seems to be a lot of poverty.
Several commented that they wished that Italy had the courage to leave the EU and expressed admiration for Brexit. As we were leaving the news bulletins showed the EU flag removed from the Genoa beaches and replaced with the Union Jack alongside their own. I think Beppe Grillo comes from the Genoa area
I'm afraid your suggestion is unfair to the aforementioned issue.
But true. nevertheless.
When a politician suggests more rape and murder is needed for his ally's political career to flourish, and indeed says it in such a way that he appears to be hoping for it, I condemn that too. If his ally can only win on those terms, his political career is worthless anyway.
I am neither a woman, nor left-wing. There are some lines that should not be crossed on the grounds of ordinary human decency.
Banks didn't tweet what you seem to think he did. He is saying that more of what is inevitably coming will change peoples attitudes further down the line. And I agree that what has started - and will only accelerate - will change the face of politics and society over the next decade.
You can create false equivalences to smear the messenger if you wish but ultimately, even using phrasing you interpret a different way to me, he is right.
By the way, don't you mean 'far-right'?
Austrian polls for their next election.
We appear to have two different interpretations of the same text. I can't for the life of me read it your way and you don't see it the way I think it's intended.
So let's not bore the rest of PB with something we're not going to agree on. Pax.
It would become unworkable but until they actually win the Presidency they won't be allowed to form the government even if they have a majority in parliament.
Chiltern Railways is generally viewed as the model franchised TOC. It's owned by Deutsche Bahn, who are hardly under-resourced and have greater-than-average infrastructure expertise.
Despite this, DfT forcibly took control of the Evergreen 3 enhancements away from Chiltern in 2011 for severe underperformance, and gave them to Network Rail instead.
"Network Rail expressed concern about the quality of designs it had received from Chiltern Railways for approval. It told Chiltern that the designs were “increasing the workload of Network Rail engineers” and “creating significant amounts of rework and re-review that otherwise would not occur”."
(https://www.newcivilengineer.com/network-rail-gets-chiltern-work/8612322.article)
Now Grayling is trying to go back to this. They never learn.
In places where the economy was bad governments changed, as they always do.
However the new austrian president has vowed to refuse to swear them in, and he has the power (the only real power that he has) on paper by the constitution to do so.
Re-mania
However if turnout is very high then it's probably an anti-Renzi wave.
The lessons of the last few years is that anecdotal evidence and turnout are more accurate than polls.
Juppe is a liberal and an actual convict.
Not many real choices on offer.
I can't find a turnout map of the last election, since changes of turnout are the most significant, but overall the total turnout matches the last election.
In the end, Les Republicains and their allies chose a candidate bang in the middle of the party.
Not to be too morbid about it but terror attacks have not radically altered the polls.
The ony poll to put Fillon ahead in the first round, had the voters of the FN splitting 38 for Sarkozy 22 for Fillon.
Fillon is as close to the embodiment of the Gaullist right as was on offer.
However that's one thing that should be remembered: he's a journalist. He's not a railwayman, and he sometimes pretends to be one (or at least that's the way he comes across). His expertise is narrow - I much prefer Roger Ford (who was a railwayman, at least in a way). But in general Wolmar's enthusiasm is a positive for the railways in this country.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/739686/Italy-referendum-2016-polls-news-update-EU-Italians-vote
EDIT: 72% will be the betting probability (Betfair is 73%).
As for the FN, that probably had someting to do with the fact he was their best chance for Le Pen to win...
also anti il no con il 54-58%, sì al 42-46
NO 56
YES 44
http://www.thelocal.it/20161204/renzis-future-on-the-line-as-italy-votes-on-his-fate
EDIT: So much for that!
http://elezioni.interno.it/referendum/votanti/20161204/index.html
Might be a trading bet if the first results are not typical.
I've taken my 35% return in two hours. OK so it was on £20 but still :P
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsA7rdZelLc
Sezioni pervenute Italia: 6 su 61.551
Comunicazioni pervenute Estero: 0 su 1.618
We have to think of this as kind of an attempt to restore democracy in Italy, since they hadn't got a democratically elected PM since 2011, Renzi is not even an MP.
Communications received by Foreign: 0 of 1618
https://translate.google.co.uk/
A "no" is a vote for the status quo is if anything pro establishment.