Based on what? I'll give you 5/1. Great thing about CNN is that he's explaining in detail why the running state vote totals are less than half the story.
I don't know why e.g. Miami area is always so slow to report, but it always is.
Tbh with Brexit we knew very on what was happening.
Not much earlier than this. From memory, the "exit polls" (well, a YouGov poll on the day of Brexit) put Remain ahead, and senior Leave figures were conceding defeat (Frank Luntz being the equivalent of Farage on Brexit night).
It was only when actual results started coming in that people realised the polls and pundits were off.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 15s16 seconds ago Manhattan, NY To his credit, Trump is overperforming exit polls from conservative parts of Florida and Virginia.
Somewhat sheepish from Luntz, who said the election was over about 2 hours ago - called it for Clinton.
If we're going by the NY Times tracker, Trump wins Florida but struggles in other key states like North Carolina and Iowa.
I love their dials! So awesome.
North Carolina has been getting closer. Iowa hasn't started counting yet. I'm still surprised how much closer Virginia is than expected. Maybe there is a shy trump effect
Tbh with Brexit we knew very on what was happening.
Not much earlier than this. From memory, the "exit polls" (well, a YouGov poll on the day of Brexit) put Remain ahead, and senior Leave figures were conceding defeat (Frank Luntz being the equivalent of Farage on Brexit night).
It was only when actual results started coming in that people realised the polls and pundits were off.
I think it was earlier than this tbh. Sunderland came in very early, and that was the first signal.
CNN saying trump could have an edge in the undeclared FL votes
Yes - uber close.
I may have been too confident...
Pennsylvania might also be up to a shocker, only 3 counties in but Trump is doing much much better than Romney in rural Pennsylvania, in one of them he is up 23% higher than Romney.
The exit poll won't be out by 4 points.
So far it has been in most states so far, it seems they did a HUGE mistake in undercounting over65's as a share of the electorate by a lot.
6m Steve Schale @steveschale This is pretty remarkable - in 41 counties in Florida, Trump's share is better than the best share that any R has gotten since 2000.
If we're going by the NY Times tracker, Trump wins Florida but struggles in other key states like North Carolina and Iowa.
I love their dials! So awesome.
North Carolina has been getting closer. Iowa hasn't started counting yet. I'm still surprised how much closer Virginia is than expected. Maybe there is a shy trump effect
Dials are great, key thing is they move based on results coming in , so Iowa has 0. Hence currently based on the Exit.
Starting to feel sick. Looking like the Founding Fathers theories of restraining a demagogue elected by the mob by separation of powers are going to be well and truly tested.
CNN saying trump could have an edge in the undeclared FL votes
Yes - uber close.
I may have been too confident...
Pennsylvania might also be up to a shocker, only 3 counties in but Trump is doing much much better than Romney in rural Pennsylvania, in one of them he is up 23% higher than Romney.
The exit poll won't be out by 4 points.
So far it has been in most states so far, it seems they did a HUGE mistake in undercounting over65's as a share of the electorate by a lot.
My spreadsheet shows that the biggest exit poll error in 2012 was 2.8 points in Arizona.
If this ends up being a very close Clinton win at some point this morning will Trump accept the result? (A 310-228 type result was much harder to challenge)
Tbh with Brexit we knew very on what was happening.
Not much earlier than this. From memory, the "exit polls" (well, a YouGov poll on the day of Brexit) put Remain ahead, and senior Leave figures were conceding defeat (Frank Luntz being the equivalent of Farage on Brexit night).
It was only when actual results started coming in that people realised the polls and pundits were off.
The betting opportunity arose because the BBC kept arguing that London could swing it back long after this became incredible.
I don't yet see any same sure fire direction here.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 15s16 seconds ago Manhattan, NY To his credit, Trump is overperforming exit polls from conservative parts of Florida and Virginia.
Somewhat sheepish from Luntz, who said the election was over about 2 hours ago - called it for Clinton.
Well, if there is an issue with "shy Trumpers" (people who are embarrassed for you to hear they're farting?), I don't see why it shouldn't apply to exit polls as well as any other kind of polls.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 15s16 seconds ago Manhattan, NY To his credit, Trump is overperforming exit polls from conservative parts of Florida and Virginia.
Somewhat sheepish from Luntz, who said the election was over about 2 hours ago - called it for Clinton.
Well, if there is an issue with "shy Trumpers" (people who are embarrassed for you to hear they're farting?), I don't see why it shouldn't apply to exit polls as well as any other kindof polls.
Yes, clearly the 'shy Leave' voters in EU ref factor has transferred over a little to the US with 'shy Trumpers'
Am I missing something? FL looks to be Trump's, and VA may throw up a surprise, but the exit polls/results from OH, PA, NC all point to a likely Clinton win, surely? Yet people are talking as if Trump has it in the bag.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 15s16 seconds ago Manhattan, NY To his credit, Trump is overperforming exit polls from conservative parts of Florida and Virginia.
Somewhat sheepish from Luntz, who said the election was over about 2 hours ago - called it for Clinton.
Well, if there is an issue with "shy Trumpers" (people who are embarrassed for you to hear they're farting?), I don't see why it shouldn't apply to exit polls as well as any other kind of polls.
Well of course there are shy Trumpers.
Would you admit it? I wouldn't.
This election remains too close to call. I think HRC may, may, still do it but this can't be called yet and it will come down to some key battleground states which are currently on a knife-edge.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 15s16 seconds ago Manhattan, NY To his credit, Trump is overperforming exit polls from conservative parts of Florida and Virginia.
Somewhat sheepish from Luntz, who said the election was over about 2 hours ago - called it for Clinton.
Well, if there is an issue with "shy Trumpers" (people who are embarrassed for you to hear they're farting?), I don't see why it shouldn't apply to exit polls as well as any other kindof polls.
Yes, clearly the 'shy Leave' voters in EU ref factor has transferred over a little to the US with 'shy Trumpers'
No - I think Donald Trump is quintessentially American ...
For the remaining three Clinton Counties, bear in mind that Trump's on the day is performing substantially better than early voting. Florida goes for Trump.
Some of you are going to be very embarrassed later today. You really aren't looking at the figures and seeing what votes are to come. Do people never learn?
Am I missing something? FL looks to be Trump's, and VA may throw up a surprise, but the exit polls/results from OH, PA, NC all point to a likely Clinton win, surely? Yet people are talking as if Trump has it in the bag.
The Exit Polls were monumental CRAAAPPPPP.
Trump is now going to get a lead in N.C. at any moment now too.
Given the indicators from elsewhere about the rural white vote swinging hard to Trump - don't see how he doesn't take Ohio unless there is a massive Kasich write-in campaign or similar, or if there are other things driving differential voting.
Am I missing something? FL looks to be Trump's, and VA may throw up a surprise, but the exit polls/results from OH, PA, NC all point to a likely Clinton win, surely? Yet people are talking as if Trump has it in the bag.
Am I missing something? FL looks to be Trump's, and VA may throw up a surprise, but the exit polls/results from OH, PA, NC all point to a likely Clinton win, surely? Yet people are talking as if Trump has it in the bag.
Rural Florida is all in, Broward and Palm Beach still have quite a bit to come.
STILL
I have totally reversed my positioning, and am now almost at zero.
Am I missing something? FL looks to be Trump's, and VA may throw up a surprise, but the exit polls/results from OH, PA, NC all point to a likely Clinton win, surely? Yet people are talking as if Trump has it in the bag.
Some of you are going to be very embarrassed later today. You really aren't looking at the figures and seeing what votes are to come. Do people never kearn?
Am I missing something? FL looks to be Trump's, and VA may throw up a surprise, but the exit polls/results from OH, PA, NC all point to a likely Clinton win, surely? Yet people are talking as if Trump has it in the bag.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 15s16 seconds ago Manhattan, NY To his credit, Trump is overperforming exit polls from conservative parts of Florida and Virginia.
Somewhat sheepish from Luntz, who said the election was over about 2 hours ago - called it for Clinton.
Well, if there is an issue with "shy Trumpers" (people who are embarrassed for you to hear they're farting?), I don't see why it shouldn't apply to exit polls as well as any other kindof polls.
Yes, clearly the 'shy Leave' voters in EU ref factor has transferred over a little to the US with 'shy Trumpers'
No - I think Donald Trump is quintessentially American ...
Well he is but that does not stop a small percentage being reticent about declaring support for him given the heavy backing of most of the media for Clinton
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 15s16 seconds ago Manhattan, NY To his credit, Trump is overperforming exit polls from conservative parts of Florida and Virginia.
Somewhat sheepish from Luntz, who said the election was over about 2 hours ago - called it for Clinton.
Well, if there is an issue with "shy Trumpers" (people who are embarrassed for you to hear they're farting?), I don't see why it shouldn't apply to exit polls as well as any other kind of polls.
Am I missing something? FL looks to be Trump's, and VA may throw up a surprise, but the exit polls/results from OH, PA, NC all point to a likely Clinton win, surely? Yet people are talking as if Trump has it in the bag.
looks neck and neck in OH to me, on CNN.
The NYT has Ohio 59% chance for Trump. NC 51% for Clinton. Pennsylvania is only 2% counted
Looking at the exit polls on the CNN site, the numbers by Party ID seem to be slightly more favourable to Trump than the number by gender. I wonder if they will prove to be the more accurate ones. Also it might be the case that the 2-6% who refused to say in each poll may have been more shy-Trump rather than shy-Clinton. Still think Clinton wins but maybe something in the 280-290 EV range rather than the predicted 300+ EV that looked likely earlier.
Dan Rosenheck @DanRosenheck 3m3 minutes ago Remember that a) HRC does NOT need ANY of FL/OH/NC as long as she can hold her firewall and b) data so far do not suggest big polling error
Comments
Clinton 49%
Trump 47%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/ohio
It was only when actual results started coming in that people realised the polls and pundits were off.
To his credit, Trump is overperforming exit polls from conservative parts of Florida and Virginia.
Somewhat sheepish from Luntz, who said the election was over about 2 hours ago - called it for Clinton.
6m
Steve Schale @steveschale
This is pretty remarkable - in 41 counties in Florida, Trump's share is better than the best share that any R has gotten since 2000.
Reckon it comes in from 110k, but probably not enough.
Luckily after backing her at 1.15, I got out at.......
1.15...
I don't yet see any same sure fire direction here.
Clinton 48.5%
Trump 47.6%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/ohio
Those who don't suffer from vertigo may like to watch the gold price here.
But for what it's worth: I still think HRC wins FL but closer to 1% (maybe even 0.5!)
9% of votes to come, and 74% of counties have fully reported.
And Trump is still winning by 5.6% with 62% counted.
Would you admit it? I wouldn't.
This election remains too close to call. I think HRC may, may, still do it but this can't be called yet and it will come down to some key battleground states which are currently on a knife-edge.
Trump 49.1%
Clinton 47.8%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/florida
Jobabob 1:01AM :
"Hillary is going to be 1.01 very soon and we can all go to bed."
Trump is now going to get a lead in N.C. at any moment now too.
Votes are what matter.
STILL
I have totally reversed my positioning, and am now almost at zero.
In so far: 940k
2012 : 870k
10% growth minimum.
So maybe more upside in broward + palm beach if they grow more than 10%
B. Obama (i) Dem 67.2% 507,430
M. Romney GOP 32.3% 243,732
I don't think it will give her enough. The on the day vote won't be as strong for her.
I'm now long Trump for the Presidency.
Also it might be the case that the 2-6% who refused to say in each poll may have been more shy-Trump rather than shy-Clinton.
Still think Clinton wins but maybe something in the 280-290 EV range rather than the predicted 300+ EV that looked likely earlier.
Dan Rosenheck @DanRosenheck 3m3 minutes ago
Remember that a) HRC does NOT need ANY of FL/OH/NC as long as she can hold her firewall and b) data so far do not suggest big polling error